Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
Labour need to get 12% lead for a bare majority on uniform swing.
If they get lower swing in say London, Wales and Scotland (where each vote they take from the SNP has half the swing value as any vote taken directly from the Tories), somewhat higher in the North of England, and much higher in the Midlands and provincial South, then the very same lead could give Labour a 3 figure majority. This was very much the prediction of the last YouGov MRP poll.
If they get lower swing where the Tory vote is below 20%, it will be higher elsewhere.
If they get higher swing in current Tory seats, for instance, due to the fact that Reform didn't stand last time in Tory seats and will now, that affects the seat count.
Some of this could unwind, but Labour not doing quite a bit better than UNS suggests does seem unlikely on current patterns.
I'm expecting an eventual Labour lead in the 8-16% range, but even at the low end, I expect the Labour vote to be efficient enough for a majority of a couple of dozen.
A pilot has died after a Spitfire crashed in a field close to an RAF station in Lincolnshire, officials said.
Emergency services were called to the field off Langrick Road, Coningsby shortly before 13:20 BST on Saturday.
The World War Two-era plane belonged to the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight based at RAF Coningsby, the RAF said
They've been doing a lot of rehearsing recently. A C47 and what I thought was a P51 both with DDay stripes flew over my house while I was gardening the other week.
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
So that's Casino Royale out, is there anyone else willing to donate their body to the Tory campaign?
Me, as I posted last night
I think I shall put my name forward to become a Tory MP.
2024 - Become MP
2027 - Become Leader of His Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition
2029 - Become PM after winning a landslide at the general election
I have it all mapped out.
I have sussed out the Grand Plan. 2024 - MP for Leeds South West and Morley. 2027 - Leader of the Opposition. 2029 - PM. 2030 - abolishes Leeds United. 2031 - loses VONC. 2032 - wins Strictly.
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
I thought he said 9%? But I agree on the value.
I’m finding this one of the hardest elections to bet on at the moment. Anyone else?
As others have mentioned, and @TSE wrote about, it wouldn’t take much to see dramatic seat share shifts.
Yes. A completely decent, argued and rational case can be made for the Tories getting 35 seats (regular polls when Baxtered + a bit of extra tactical voting) and the Tories getting 290 seats (Labour fail to impress, ex 2019 Tory voters, currently DKs and Reform in vast numbers, vote Tory).
This is bizarre. Personally I don't regard either as impossible. But such value as there is will be found in the NOM possibilities and thereabouts.
I find it hard to see the Tories going that far below 180. Some of the Reform vote will come back - as ever, and they just have a core vote that turns out. I think they’ll hold up in the Midlands and Thames Estuary, but less so in the Stockbroker belts of Surrey and Oxfordshire.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War. Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known. See also Denis Healey.
Memories of the war can still hang over politicians and their ideas today, albeit not necessarily in good ways.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War. Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known. See also Denis Healey.
Memories of the war can still hang over politicians and their ideas today, albeit not necessarily in good ways.
"Under the plans, young people could choose a full-time, 12-month placement in the armed forces or UK cyber defence, learning about logistics, cyber security, procurement or civil response operations.
"Their other option would be to volunteer one weekend per month - or 25 days per year - in their community with organisations such as fire, police and the NHS."
Join the army or do one day per fortnight with St John Ambulance... these are not equivalent.
Wine which improves with keeping is way above almost anyone's pay grade and is not called names like Redbeard. Otoh genuinely undrinkable wine is almost unheard of these days. Drink it is my advice.
I don't think that entirely true. Even average Rhone wines benefit from a year or two in the bottle to soften the tannins.
That said, a free bonus bottle is unlikely to benefit greatly, so drink up. Or save it for cooking.
“This is not a plan – it’s a review which could cost billions and is only needed because the Tories hollowed out the Armed Forces to their smallest size since Napoleon.”
“This is not a plan – it’s a review which could cost billions and is only needed because the Tories hollowed out the Armed Forces to their smallest size since Napoleon.”
“This is not a plan – it’s a review which could cost billions and is only needed because the Tories hollowed out the Armed Forces to their smallest size since Napoleon.”
A review that could cost billions?
Sunak being great at politics again. He hasn't even announced a policy, he has announced a review into a policy that will generate a lot of negative press...
It is basically a review to investigate rehashing Cameron's failed National Citizen Service.
“This is not a plan – it’s a review which could cost billions and is only needed because the Tories hollowed out the Armed Forces to their smallest size since Napoleon.”
So that's Casino Royale out, is there anyone else willing to donate their body to the Tory campaign?
I really hope that HYUFD is spending the weekend applying to everywhere within striking distance of Epping Forest!
He would be a rare breed, an honest Tory! I would vote for him. I would also vote for Casino, Rochdale, Tissue Price, and anyone else on PB who is standing, as they have more practical political knowledge than most of the actual candidates.
Robert Peston @Peston The brave new Sunak policy, compulsory national service for all 18 year olds - what he calls “military” and “civic” - may or may not be sensible. But announcing it on day four of an election campaign, out of a clear blue sky with no prior debate, or attempt to make the case, could be seen as a little impulsive. Here is the Tory Party’s own summary: “The Conservatives are today announcing mandatory National Service for every eighteen year old – they will be able to choose between a full-time placement over 12 months in the armed forces or one weekend per month for a year volunteering in their community.”
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
I thought he said 9%? But I agree on the value.
I’m finding this one of the hardest elections to bet on at the moment. Anyone else?
As others have mentioned, and @TSE wrote about, it wouldn’t take much to see dramatic seat share shifts.
Actually I think it's one of the easiest. So long as you're prepared to take a view - i.e. that the stats aren't everything.
My own view accords with what you've been saying for a couple of years(?) - this is annihilation time for the Tories imo. Everything flows from that. My only difficulty is entry tbh - there will surely as someone else said earlier in the thread be "wobbles" along the way for labour, so do I wait for them or get involved immediately? Bottom pickers have sticky fingers and all that. Generally speaking I'm getting involved but keeping most of my powder dry. EG on the spreads - started buying Labour (I'd normally be shorting Tory given the bid/offer spread but I think other parties a bit too high too) but I'm hoping price comes down so I can lift offers around 380.
I am also only betting in ways I can exit and lick my wounds should the above view change.
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
I don't think anything like a 12% lead is needed for a Lab majority.
Tonight's Opinium give a 186 seat Labour majority on a 14% lead for example on UNS.
Incidentally it seems the raw figures for Opinium are unchanged. The 4% drop in Lab lead is to do with how they handle the DKs.
I've found it pretty interesting that lots of our Tory-leaning posters have reported that they've heard very little about the election from their friends and acquaintances, and that "it's boring so far, nothing's broken through, no-one cares about it".
And yet, where I am in North London, I've seen Labour out leafleting, heard people chattering about politics in the street, and seen Rishi's "Things Can Only Get Wetter" speech become the primary topic of office small talk in a way that hasn't been seen since the finale of Succession. I've never seen such a high level of engagement with politics before.
Now, obviously, all of that reflects only the very tiny bubble in which I find myself, but I do wonder if the differential turnout which usually can be relied upon to help the Tories might fail to occur this time round.
But we're told that Rishi has been spending the day cooking up a new flagship policy - it wouldn't surprise me if it turned out to be something like abolishing inheritance tax altogether. Would that be enough to re-engage the disaffected Tories?
National Service inclusive of non military options is one of those things that can be made to sound ok - give opportunities, provide direction etc - but dictating what people should be doing seems likely to be hugely unpopular.
It does highlight that we have a big problem down the road with lack of volunteers, but conscripting people to do the things volunteers do does not strike me as a workable solution.
The last time I checked, professional armed forces definitely *not* keen on compulsory national service because it wasted time and money coralling non-soldiers who really don't want to be there.
But I'm sure Team Sunak has completely thought this through.
Tom Watson @tom_watson · 34m I’m told the Rishi Sunak is to call for national service. I wonder what young people and their parents will think of that?
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War. Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known. See also Denis Healey.
Memories of the war can still hang over politicians and their ideas today, albeit not necessarily in good ways.
"Under the plans, young people could choose a full-time, 12-month placement in the armed forces or UK cyber defence, learning about logistics, cyber security, procurement or civil response operations.
"Their other option would be to volunteer one weekend per month - or 25 days per year - in their community with organisations such as fire, police and the NHS."
Join the army or do one day per fortnight with St John Ambulance... these are not equivalent.
Virtually every sixth former in the UK has a part time job at the weekends, so this seems a tad unworkable.
The staffing rotas of McDs, KFC and the supermarkets would be decimated.
The last time I checked, professional armed forces definitely *not* keen on compulsory national service because it wasted time and money coralling non-soldiers who really don't want to be there.
But I'm sure Team Sunak has completely thought this through.
I'd assume the options being presented being so different in scale suggests they think virtually no one will be conscripted into military service, and nearly everyone would go for the community volunteering once per month.
The last time I checked, professional armed forces definitely *not* keen on compulsory national service because it wasted time and money coralling non-soldiers who really don't want to be there.
But I'm sure Team Sunak has completely thought this through.
I can't see the NHS, police and fire services being that keen on babysitting a bunch of teenagers either.
“This is not a plan – it’s a review which could cost billions and is only needed because the Tories hollowed out the Armed Forces to their smallest size since Napoleon.”
A review that could cost billions?
I would post the bit that explains it, but I am over my quota
Rishi Sunak will bring in compulsory national service for all 18 years olds if the Tories win the election
They've no more votes to lose in the 18-24 bracket, so this is just aimed at those pensioners who think the 1950s were UK's golden era.
This is Core Vote 2.0
Yes. This is for Reform voters 60+
Alternatively, this is Day 1 of a grid where Sunak ramps war with Russia, Argentina, Spain, Scotland, China. We might get a big announcement like "Black Watch to garrison Kyiv".
Expectations are so low, that if the Conservatives finished with 200 seats, it would probably seem like a victory.
I think they will exceed 200
Sir John Curtice seems to think Lab need at least a 12% lead over Con to get a Majority. If that is true NOM represents very good value IMO
The issue of what actual voting % figures will produce what result WRT seats in July seems to me (as a bit innumerate) an extremely vexed one. Any chance of an expert analysis of the various opinions?
I agree that if Labour need a 12 point lead for a majority, they are highly likely not to get one. But I am not convinced this is true maths.
I don't think anything like a 12% lead is needed for a Lab majority.
Tonight's Opinium give a 186 seat Labour majority on a 14% lead for example on UNS.
Incidentally it seems the raw figures for Opinium are unchanged. The 4% drop in Lab lead is to do with how they handle the DKs.
Labour notionally start on 201, so that's 125 gains for a bare majority.
I make target 125 Hexham, with has a 23% majority (C29k L17k). So yeah, UNS needs a 12 point swing which is about a 12 point Labour lead. But no, I'm not expecting UNS, and haven't been since anti-Corbyn tactical voting stopped being a thing.
(What I would love to be able to do is look at the target list, stroke my chin and identify the boundaries between "bound to fall", "surprising but not that surprising" and "bloody hell". But I can't)
The last time I checked, professional armed forces definitely *not* keen on compulsory national service because it wasted time and money coralling non-soldiers who really don't want to be there.
But I'm sure Team Sunak has completely thought this through.
I'd assume the options being presented being so different in scale suggests they think virtually no one will be conscripted into military service, and nearly everyone would go for the community volunteering once per month.
Dave's National Citizen Service failed miserably, which was similar (albeit voluntary).
National Service inclusive of non military options is one of those things that can be made to sound ok - give opportunities, provide direction etc - but dictating what people should be doing seems likely to be hugely unpopular.
It does highlight that we have a big problem down the road with lack of volunteers, but conscripting people to do the things volunteers do does not strike me as a workable solution.
It's obviously a stupid idea. The state has no business telling adults what to do with their time.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
He also participated in D Day, was mentioned in dispatches, commanded a firing squad at an execution, was awarded an MBE for his War service, and ended up a Lieutenant-Colonel after the War. Although politicians of those days didn't go on about it, their War record was widely known. See also Denis Healey.
The very apologetic tank commander in A Bridge Too Far who could not advance (for good reasons) to relieve the British at Arnhem was based on Lord Carrington (MC) who was first across the bridge at Nijmegen in a Sherman.
Poor sods. They didn't even have the special heavily armoured M4A3E2 spearhead assault version of the Sherman that the Americans had.
Advancing up a single road? Even if you were in Jagdtigers you were stuffed.
Better chance of getting out, though.
Actually, if you were in a Sherman with wet stowage and not piles of loose rounds everywhere, your chances of surviving a hit were better than pretty much everything the Germans had. The tank might be o/c, but more crew survived.
Electrifying stuff, Wes Streeting saying the NHS is shit ("it's a service not a shrine") which gives me some hope, for the first time, that a labour government might try something new and different.
We don't know whether the policy is a terrible one till we see the detail.
What we do know is that it's completely inauthentic. Sunak has been PM. His Government had another 6 months on the clock. Where was anything to do with this idea then?
National Service inclusive of non military options is one of those things that can be made to sound ok - give opportunities, provide direction etc - but dictating what people should be doing seems likely to be hugely unpopular.
It does highlight that we have a big problem down the road with lack of volunteers, but conscripting people to do the things volunteers do does not strike me as a workable solution.
It's obviously a stupid idea. The state has no business telling adults what to do with their time.
If we need volunteers then conscript older people into this thing, they have the time for it.
Conquest’s second law: the easiest way to explain the behaviour of a given organisation is to assume it is secretly controlled by a cabal of its enemies. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Conservative party’s plan to reintroduce national service.
Rishi, when I said you need to appeal to young voters, I meant build some houses.
This is the kind of nonsense that puts young people off for good, it's yet another "screw the young" from the elderly.
He already has no votes from anyone under...checks notes... about 75. So what is there to lose?
Shore up the triple-locked pensioner vote who loved the 1950s when their mates were sent to Suez on National Service and may well have been killed if the US didn't pull the plug.
National Service inclusive of non military options is one of those things that can be made to sound ok - give opportunities, provide direction etc - but dictating what people should be doing seems likely to be hugely unpopular.
It does highlight that we have a big problem down the road with lack of volunteers, but conscripting people to do the things volunteers do does not strike me as a workable solution.
It's obviously a stupid idea. The state has no business telling adults what to do with their time.
If we need volunteers then conscript older people into this thing, they have the time for it.
Compulsory national service is not popular with any age group apart from the over-65s. Is it possible for the Conservative vote with under 25s to go any lower?
The £2.5 billion National Service scheme will see school leavers apply for a year-long placement in the Armed Forces or the UK’s cyber defences where they will gain experience in logistics, cyber security, procurement and civil response operations such as flood defences.
The placements, which are open to 30,000 youngsters, will involve residential stays at army barracks or other military facilities around the country.
The volunteering route will see 18-year-olds spend one weekend each month working in the fire services, police, the NHS as well as local charities tackling loneliness and supporting older, isolated people.
The £2.5 billion National Service scheme will see school leavers apply for a year-long placement in the Armed Forces or the UK’s cyber defences where they will gain experience in logistics, cyber security, procurement and civil response operations such as flood defences.
The placements, which are open to 30,000 youngsters, will involve residential stays at army barracks or other military facilities around the country.
The volunteering route will see 18-year-olds spend one weekend each month working in the fire services, police, the NHS as well as local charities tackling loneliness and supporting older, isolated people.
"The Conservative Party has said it would bring back mandatory national service if it wins the general election.
It said 18-year-olds would have a choice of either joining the military full-time, or volunteering one weekend every month carrying out a community service."
If this actually happened when I was an 18 year old, my response would have been something along the lines of "Go fuck yourself".
turns out that the National Citizen Service (David Cameron’s pet project) had its funding slashed by two-thirds in a 2022 review of government youth funding - when Rishi Sunak was chancellor
National Service inclusive of non military options is one of those things that can be made to sound ok - give opportunities, provide direction etc - but dictating what people should be doing seems likely to be hugely unpopular.
It does highlight that we have a big problem down the road with lack of volunteers, but conscripting people to do the things volunteers do does not strike me as a workable solution.
It's obviously a stupid idea. The state has no business telling adults what to do with their time.
If we need volunteers then conscript older people into this thing, they have the time for it.
The volunteering route will see 18-year-olds spend one weekend each month working in the fire services, police, the NHS as well as local charities tackling loneliness and supporting older, isolated people.
Telegraph
That doesn't sound so bad? That's the kind of thing Cameron tried to get off the ground in 2010.
The £2.5 billion National Service scheme will see school leavers apply for a year-long placement in the Armed Forces or the UK’s cyber defences where they will gain experience in logistics, cyber security, procurement and civil response operations such as flood defences.
The placements, which are open to 30,000 youngsters, will involve residential stays at army barracks or other military facilities around the country.
The volunteering route will see 18-year-olds spend one weekend each month working in the fire services, police, the NHS as well as local charities tackling loneliness and supporting older, isolated people.
Telegraph
Its not even cheap...
We can add it to the £46b NI scrappage fiscal blackhole.
Compulsory national service is not popular with any age group apart from the over-65s. Is it possible for the Conservative vote with under 25s to go any lower?
No, but it is possible to stimulate higher turnout for younger people
People mocking the idea of national service have no concept of the strategic position we find ourselves in, so they? There’s a reason most of Europe is considering versions of this.
We’ve got fat and lazy, and lost the courage of our convictions, and the understanding that they sometimes must be fought for.
The volunteering route will see 18-year-olds spend one weekend each month working in the fire services, police, the NHS as well as local charities tackling loneliness and supporting older, isolated people.
Telegraph
That doesn't sound so bad? That's the kind of thing Cameron tried to get off the ground in 2010.
The end goal doesn't sound so bad. People doing it might even end up liking it, and it provides very valuable service.
But proposing to force people to do will be massively toxic to a lot of people.
People mocking the idea of national service have no concept of the strategic position we find ourselves in, so they? There’s a reason most of Europe is considering versions of this.
We’ve got fat and lazy, and lost the courage of our convictions, and the understanding that they sometimes must be fought for.
An ugly, deeply authoritarian idea. There was a time the Conservative party was a broad church where libertarians and traditional conservatives were able to co-exist.
The Conservatives deserve zero seats in July. Zero. Complete wipeout. Obliteration. Let something - anything - else take their place.
Compulsory national service is not popular with any age group apart from the over-65s. Is it possible for the Conservative vote with under 25s to go any lower?
Exactly as I was saying on here a few minutes ago.
- 12 month placement in armed forces - 12 weekends of community service
Why would anyone choose the former unless they want to be in the army? And what stops people from sacking off the latter if they don't feel like it or have an actual weekend job alongside university education, or a full time job that includes weekends, like many people do in the real world?
Possibly the most stupid policy I've heard in this electoral cycle so far.
Rishi Sunak’s plan for compulsory national service is the most insane policy proposal ever launched in an election campaign by a major political party.
The £2.5 billion National Service scheme will see school leavers apply for a year-long placement in the Armed Forces or the UK’s cyber defences where they will gain experience in logistics, cyber security, procurement and civil response operations such as flood defences.
The placements, which are open to 30,000 youngsters, will involve residential stays at army barracks or other military facilities around the country.
The volunteering route will see 18-year-olds spend one weekend each month working in the fire services, police, the NHS as well as local charities tackling loneliness and supporting older, isolated people.
Telegraph
The details here don't match the tweet, which said it would be compulsory.
People mocking the idea of national service have no concept of the strategic position we find ourselves in, so they? There’s a reason most of Europe is considering versions of this.
We’ve got fat and lazy, and lost the courage of our convictions, and the understanding that they sometimes must be fought for.
You might be right. But something of such extraordinary importance - defence, personal freedom, the future of young people - should not be a throwaway policy idea in a short GE campaign.
The volunteering route will see 18-year-olds spend one weekend each month working in the fire services, police, the NHS as well as local charities tackling loneliness and supporting older, isolated people.
Telegraph
That doesn't sound so bad? That's the kind of thing Cameron tried to get off the ground in 2010.
The end goal doesn't sound so bad. People doing it might even end up liking it, and it provides very valuable service.
But proposing to force people to do will be massively toxic to a lot of people.
I mean that's it. If you said you wanted to expand opportunities for young people. We will offer these schemes and reward people if they want to take part. We think its good for them and society. But making it compulsory, is just toxic.
I see the Front page of the Times has an item about a private school in Hampshire closing because of "Labour's VAT raid" (although it mentions that The school has suffered from dwindling pupil numbers in recent years).
At least they will be able to have a fag break between square bashing on national service as his 'ban fags for 18 year olds' Bill fell at end of this week.
- 12 month placement in armed forces - 12 weekends of community service
Why would anyone choose the former unless they want to be in the army? And what stops people from sacking off the latter if they don't feel like it or have an actual weekend job alongside university education, or a full time job that includes weekends, like many people do in the real world?
Possibly the most stupid policy I've heard in this electoral cycle so far.
People mocking the idea of national service have no concept of the strategic position we find ourselves in, so they? There’s a reason most of Europe is considering versions of this.
We’ve got fat and lazy, and lost the courage of our convictions, and the understanding that they sometimes must be fought for.
I think you missunderstand part of the reason for the mockery.
Assume what you say is true about the worthiness of this as a goal or need for it - I'd even agree that might be true. Do you think the electorate is likely to respond positively to the idea they should be required to do this?
Maybe a more popular PM could propose something like this, but when Rishi is already so unpopular will he really get a neutral assessment of the idea from most people?
The £2.5 billion National Service scheme will see school leavers apply for a year-long placement in the Armed Forces or the UK’s cyber defences where they will gain experience in logistics, cyber security, procurement and civil response operations such as flood defences.
The placements, which are open to 30,000 youngsters, will involve residential stays at army barracks or other military facilities around the country.
The volunteering route will see 18-year-olds spend one weekend each month working in the fire services, police, the NHS as well as local charities tackling loneliness and supporting older, isolated people.
Telegraph
The details here don't match the tweet, which said it would be compulsory.
Under the mandatory scheme, school leavers will have to either enrol on a 12-month military placement or spend one weekend each month volunteering in their community.
Tom Watson @tom_watson · 34m I’m told the Rishi Sunak is to call for national service. I wonder what young people and their parents will think of that?
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
Comments
A pilot has died after a Spitfire crashed in a field close to an RAF station in Lincolnshire, officials said.
Emergency services were called to the field off Langrick Road, Coningsby shortly before 13:20 BST on Saturday.
The World War Two-era plane belonged to the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight based at RAF Coningsby, the RAF said
If they get lower swing in say London, Wales and Scotland (where each vote they take from the SNP has half the swing value as any vote taken directly from the Tories), somewhat higher in the North of England, and much higher in the Midlands and provincial South, then the very same lead could give Labour a 3 figure majority. This was very much the prediction of the last YouGov MRP poll.
If they get lower swing where the Tory vote is below 20%, it will be higher elsewhere.
If they get higher swing in current Tory seats, for instance, due to the fact that Reform didn't stand last time in Tory seats and will now, that affects the seat count.
Some of this could unwind, but Labour not doing quite a bit better than UNS suggests does seem unlikely on current patterns.
I'm expecting an eventual Labour lead in the 8-16% range, but even at the low end, I expect the Labour vote to be efficient enough for a majority of a couple of dozen.
@kateferguson4
BREAKING!
Rishi Sunak will bring in compulsory national service for all 18 years olds if the Tories win the election
Absolutely bonkers.
"Their other option would be to volunteer one weekend per month - or 25 days per year - in their community with organisations such as fire, police and the NHS."
Join the army or do one day per fortnight with St John Ambulance... these are not equivalent.
This is Core Vote 2.0
That said, a free bonus bottle is unlikely to benefit greatly, so drink up. Or save it for cooking.
SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: PM: I will bring back National Service
https://x.com/jacksurfleet/status/1794473516555030926
“This is not a plan – it’s a review which could cost billions and is only needed because the Tories hollowed out the Armed Forces to their smallest size since Napoleon.”
It is basically a review to investigate rehashing Cameron's failed National Citizen Service.
Robert Peston
@Peston
The brave new Sunak policy, compulsory national service for all 18 year olds - what he calls “military” and “civic” - may or may not be sensible. But announcing it on day four of an election campaign, out of a clear blue sky with no prior debate, or attempt to make the case, could be seen as a little impulsive. Here is the Tory Party’s own summary: “The Conservatives are today announcing mandatory National Service for every eighteen year old – they will be able to choose between a full-time placement over 12 months in the armed forces or one weekend per month for a year volunteering in their community.”
https://x.com/Peston/status/1794473567477731533
My own view accords with what you've been saying for a couple of years(?) - this is annihilation time for the Tories imo. Everything flows from that. My only difficulty is entry tbh - there will surely as someone else said earlier in the thread be "wobbles" along the way for labour, so do I wait for them or get involved immediately? Bottom pickers have sticky fingers and all that. Generally speaking I'm getting involved but keeping most of my powder dry. EG on the spreads - started buying Labour (I'd normally be shorting Tory given the bid/offer spread but I think other parties a bit too high too) but I'm hoping price comes down so I can lift offers around 380.
I am also only betting in ways I can exit and lick my wounds should the above view change.
And yet, where I am in North London, I've seen Labour out leafleting, heard people chattering about politics in the street, and seen Rishi's "Things Can Only Get Wetter" speech become the primary topic of office small talk in a way that hasn't been seen since the finale of Succession. I've never seen such a high level of engagement with politics before.
Now, obviously, all of that reflects only the very tiny bubble in which I find myself, but I do wonder if the differential turnout which usually can be relied upon to help the Tories might fail to occur this time round.
But we're told that Rishi has been spending the day cooking up a new flagship policy - it wouldn't surprise me if it turned out to be something like abolishing inheritance tax altogether. Would that be enough to re-engage the disaffected Tories?
It does highlight that we have a big problem down the road with lack of volunteers, but conscripting people to do the things volunteers do does not strike me as a workable solution.
The last time I checked, professional armed forces definitely *not* keen on compulsory national service because it wasted time and money coralling non-soldiers who really don't want to be there.
But I'm sure Team Sunak has completely thought this through.
@tom_watson
·
34m
I’m told the Rishi Sunak is to call for national service. I wonder what young people and their parents will think of that?
https://x.com/tom_watson/status/1794467142966161772
The staffing rotas of McDs, KFC and the supermarkets would be decimated.
This is the kind of nonsense that puts young people off for good, it's yet another "screw the young" from the elderly.
https://downloads.bbc.co.uk/news/nol/shared/spl/xls_spreadsheets/results_spreadsheet.ods
Labour notionally start on 201, so that's 125 gains for a bare majority.
I make target 125 Hexham, with has a 23% majority (C29k L17k). So yeah, UNS needs a 12 point swing which is about a 12 point Labour lead. But no, I'm not expecting UNS, and haven't been since anti-Corbyn tactical voting stopped being a thing.
(What I would love to be able to do is look at the target list, stroke my chin and identify the boundaries between "bound to fall", "surprising but not that surprising" and "bloody hell". But I can't)
I know, Twitter is not Britain. But I don't think I've ever seen a policy announcement produce so much anger all at once...
someone told me about the national service thing a couple of hours ago and i was like “don’t be stupid. no way that’s happening.”
Electrifying stuff, Wes Streeting saying the NHS is shit ("it's a service not a shrine") which gives me some hope, for the first time, that a labour government might try something new and different.
Are there even enough people in the armed forces to look after all the new people who don't really want to be in the armed forces
What we do know is that it's completely inauthentic. Sunak has been PM. His Government had another 6 months on the clock. Where was anything to do with this idea then?
Conquest’s second law: the easiest way to explain the behaviour of a given organisation is to assume it is secretly controlled by a cabal of its enemies.
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Conservative party’s plan to reintroduce national service.
Shore up the triple-locked pensioner vote who loved the 1950s when their mates were sent to Suez on National Service and may well have been killed if the US didn't pull the plug.
Who the f##k is advising Sunak?
Compulsory national service is not popular with any age group apart from the over-65s. Is it possible for the Conservative vote with under 25s to go any lower?
The placements, which are open to 30,000 youngsters, will involve residential stays at army barracks or other military facilities around the country.
The volunteering route will see 18-year-olds spend one weekend each month working in the fire services, police, the NHS as well as local charities tackling loneliness and supporting older, isolated people.
Telegraph
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8060/CBP-8060.pdf P5
I think it is very possible we go below that - the last election was 67.3%, an 8% drop is all that is needed.
https://x.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1794477442268004387
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpddxy9r4mdo
"The Conservative Party has said it would bring back mandatory national service if it wins the general election.
It said 18-year-olds would have a choice of either joining the military full-time, or volunteering one weekend every month carrying out a community service."
If this actually happened when I was an 18 year old, my response would have been something along the lines of "Go fuck yourself".
turns out that the National Citizen Service (David Cameron’s pet project) had its funding slashed by two-thirds in a 2022 review of government youth funding - when Rishi Sunak was chancellor
WEAPONS FOR WOKE
We’ve got fat and lazy, and lost the courage of our convictions, and the understanding that they sometimes must be fought for.
I am genuinely intrigued why he has put this proposal forward and look forward to the polling on it, no doubt by YouGov
But proposing to force people to do will be massively toxic to a lot of people.
The Conservatives deserve zero seats in July. Zero. Complete wipeout. Obliteration. Let something - anything - else take their place.
Core Vote Strategy.
Desperate beyond desperate.
Still, someone in the office has won a koala.
- 12 month placement in armed forces
- 12 weekends of community service
Why would anyone choose the former unless they want to be in the army? And what stops people from sacking off the latter if they don't feel like it or have an actual weekend job alongside university education, or a full time job that includes weekends, like many people do in the real world?
Possibly the most stupid policy I've heard in this electoral cycle so far.
Rishi Sunak’s plan for compulsory national service is the most insane policy proposal ever launched in an election campaign by a major political party.
It looks like desperate boomerbaiting.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOc-Wd5WoAA7D7-?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
Assume what you say is true about the worthiness of this as a goal or need for it - I'd even agree that might be true. Do you think the electorate is likely to respond positively to the idea they should be required to do this?
Maybe a more popular PM could propose something like this, but when Rishi is already so unpopular will he really get a neutral assessment of the idea from most people?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/25/rishi-sunak-bring-back-national-service-policy/
Yes Minister on bringing back national service
https://x.com/PickardJE/status/1794479406766784548