On the theme ofvthe youth turning right this is going viral on social media at present. Groups of young germans chanting auslander raus or foreigners out.
Weirdly, despite the bot-like opinions and punctation, they did manage to give a fairly realistic view on hotel pricing earlier today. Perhaps, for a change, we've got a troll who bothers to do some homework?
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Hold the front pages....last time a politician got caught on a yacht we had 3 weeks of wall to wall coverage, but no mention of the other bloke who was there.
The campaign has hardly got out of first gear and the head to head debates will be very interesting
I have no doubt Starmer will be our next PM no matter
There may well be a Labour wobble during this campaign. As Patrick Maguire, the party’s best chronicler, put it this week: “Something will wobble: a leak, a policy, a candidate, a shadow cabinet minister going the full Prescott. Let’s be honest: the media will want something to wobble.”
But it may not be the TV debates that do it. Sunak’s brilliance in debate may be his undoing. He was considered to have done badly in the TV debates in the Tory leadership election two years ago. He took Liz Truss’s arguments apart in ways that were richly vindicated by later events, but at the time he was given bad reviews for patronising her, talking over her and generally being an arrogant know-it-all.
The thing about a plot twist is that it should not be in a direction that the audience expects. Every time I thought that the narrative may be about to change, it got worse for Sunak instead.
People are losing their sense of humour on here over helicoptergate. What's mildly amusing is the juxtaposition of Rishi having breakfast with the proles in Northallerton Wetherspoon's then leaping into his helicopter to fly to Wimbledon. That's all.
It's just that he is such a dick. Teddy Roosevelt liked golf but only ever had himself photographed riding a horse (in the days when that was a blue collar thing to do), Harold Wilson was a cigar smoker but pipe in public. Do not be seen in helicopters during the campaign is the most obvious rule. Rishi thinks everyone has a helicopter. Those advising him don't, but also do not have his best interests at heart.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Many people have never been on a bus
Indeed the last time I used a bus (not a tour bus) was in the sixties when I lived in Edinburgh
But although you have said you are voting Conservative you are not a politician attempting to represent the people. If you were, and I were your election agent, I’d order you to get out fast and spend some time amongst the people you wish to serve by using some trains and, yes, even buses.
And unfortunately your comment does rather reinforce the notion to me that Conservative voters are completely out of touch with ordinary people.
That shows you're the one out of touch.
Most ordinary adults don't use public transport.
True.
But you've got to take care - the provision of more public transport tends to be popular, even in areas with high levels of car ownership.
It would be out of touch to suggest that people don't want it.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.
It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.
When did you get to be site moderator? I thought you were off in the wilds of Scandinavia writing a novel about interesting conversations on buses and how we can avoid climate change by storing extra boiled water in thermos flasks?*
*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?
The campaign has hardly got out of first gear and the head to head debates will be very interesting
I have no doubt Starmer will be our next PM no matter
There may well be a Labour wobble during this campaign. As Patrick Maguire, the party’s best chronicler, put it this week: “Something will wobble: a leak, a policy, a candidate, a shadow cabinet minister going the full Prescott. Let’s be honest: the media will want something to wobble.”
But it may not be the TV debates that do it. Sunak’s brilliance in debate may be his undoing. He was considered to have done badly in the TV debates in the Tory leadership election two years ago. He took Liz Truss’s arguments apart in ways that were richly vindicated by later events, but at the time he was given bad reviews for patronising her, talking over her and generally being an arrogant know-it-all.
The thing about a plot twist is that it should not be in a direction that the audience expects. Every time I thought that the narrative may be about to change, it got worse for Sunak instead.
I was convinced Manchester City would walk over Manchester United today and to everyone's amazement the underdogs not only won but were the better side on the day
Who knows until they happen just who comes out on top though as I said Starmer will be our next PM anyway
In China, people would only be held to account over the PO if they had offended the party bosses, in some way.
Yes and you don't get to choose the bosses in one party state China, only the Communist Party hierarchy does, confirmed and rubber stamped by the National Peoples' Congress
In China, people would only be held to account over the PO if they had offended the party bosses, in some way.
Such as by making the system look corrupt for example? Besmirch the glorious Chinese reputation and all bets are off. I did say there would be a 50% chance for a reason.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
First Anecdata: I've seen my first election signs. Orange diamonds up in Winchester and Romsey, both target areas.
Caroline Nokes flyer in my folks house in Romsey was multicoloured, almost rainbow, with lots about her and no mention of the Conservative Party on the front.
Still no mention in overheard conversations or even by my folks.
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.
It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.
When did you get to be site moderator? I thought you were off in the wilds of Scandinavia writing a novel about interesting conversations on buses and how we can avoid climate change by storing extra boiled water in thermos flasks?*
*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?
Because you end up re-boiling the ullage each time. And one doesn't always need it boiling hot, e.g. for instant coffee.
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Many people have never been on a bus
Indeed the last time I used a bus (not a tour bus) was in the sixties when I lived in Edinburgh
But although you have said you are voting Conservative you are not a politician attempting to represent the people. If you were, and I were your election agent, I’d order you to get out fast and spend some time amongst the people you wish to serve by using some trains and, yes, even buses.
And unfortunately your comment does rather reinforce the notion to me that Conservative voters are completely out of touch with ordinary people.
That shows you're the one out of touch.
Most ordinary adults don't use public transport.
As far back as 1974, Jeremy Thorpe used a hovercraft.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Many people have never been on a bus
Indeed the last time I used a bus (not a tour bus) was in the sixties when I lived in Edinburgh
But although you have said you are voting Conservative you are not a politician attempting to represent the people. If you were, and I were your election agent, I’d order you to get out fast and spend some time amongst the people you wish to serve by using some trains and, yes, even buses.
And unfortunately your comment does rather reinforce the notion to me that Conservative voters are completely out of touch with ordinary people.
That shows you're the one out of touch.
Most ordinary adults don't use public transport.
As an extraordinary adult, I used the bus last Monday. Our local CAMRA social group relies on the bus, specifically the Stagecoach 585A, to attend our evening socials. Last Monday evening, about 25 people were using the bus that I relied on to save me a taxi or an evening at home. Fortunately, we don’t have a Tory council, so subsidised evening buses are still available.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Vaguely related to this helicopter nonsense, has anyone rolled out their battle bus yet, or are the graphics being lovingly applied in top secret lock-ups at undisclosed locations?
I do like a battle bus, and particularly enjoyed the 1987 Alliance effort, where David Steel had a battle bus whereas David Owen enjoyed the luxury of a "campaign coach".
Yes, in that election I was Agent for an Alliance candidate and we hired a bus for the day to tour the constituency.
Let's just say I almost got the candidate's wife decapitated which was the second thing they taught you at Alliance Agent School - the first was Never Decapitate Your Candidate.
...however tempted you will be to do so at least three or four times every day of the campaign.
Mine was all right - I did a bit of canvassing with him and had to remind him NOT to spend too much time with any individual voter. We went round council Wards where we had done well in the 1986 locals in the hope that would pay longer term dividends. He actually recruited a couple of members and new deliverers for us which was welcome.
On Polling Day I sent him round all the polling stations to thank the staff and we had a nice pub lunch. We had a £10 side bet the Conservative majority would in the constituency would be larger than it had been in 1983. I lost that one.
My memory of the count was being accosted by some Labour activists who were initially hostile thinking I was an SDP person - when they found out I was a Liberal the mood changed completely and they became very friendly. They thought they might take second place from us - I didn't think it was likely.
The Conservative men, all in similar suits, were aloof and their candidate only appeared at the end - they knew they has won the election easily and were enjoying the moment. I thought even then their "ground game" wasn't much and by the mid 90s it had atrophied completely.
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Many people have never been on a bus
Indeed the last time I used a bus (not a tour bus) was in the sixties when I lived in Edinburgh
But although you have said you are voting Conservative you are not a politician attempting to represent the people. If you were, and I were your election agent, I’d order you to get out fast and spend some time amongst the people you wish to serve by using some trains and, yes, even buses.
And unfortunately your comment does rather reinforce the notion to me that Conservative voters are completely out of touch with ordinary people.
That shows you're the one out of touch.
Most ordinary adults don't use public transport.
As far back as 1974, Jeremy Thorpe used a hovercraft.
For ferrying bunnies to & from France? (Can hear the Ghost of Rinka snarling!)
Note that the late Gov. Lawton Chiles won the governorship of Florida, by walking the length & breath of the Sunshine State - 1,030 miles over 91 days from Pensacola to Key West
". . . . The walk earned him the recognition he sought, as well as the nickname that would follow him throughout his political career– "Walkin' Lawton". In his journal Chiles wrote that sometimes he walked alone, while other times he met ordinary Floridians along the way. In later years, Chiles would recall the walk allowed him to see Florida's natural beauty, as well as the state's problems, with fresh eyes. . . ."
SSI - Reckon that our own BlancheLivermore could get elected as MP of some likely (and hopefully scenic) constituency, just by walking across it at accustomed pace and meeting folks in usual manner. Very similar to Lawton Chiles, though he did NOT have added bonus of a postal route.
Am very serious about this IF that is BL every chooses to figuratively follow in the footseps of "Walkin' Lawton". Who FYI & BTW was one of Florida's better governors, certainly in the top tier.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
The Lib Dems haven't had a really good GE for nearly twenty years, and there's no particular reason to suppose that their fortunes will improve dramatically this time around. They're still roughly where they were in 2019 in the headline VI figures; if the Tories perform cataclysmically then a lot of the LD second places from that election are liable to be swamped in a Labour tide; and if there's a modest Tory recovery it'll put most of the Con-LD marginals beyond their reach. If the yellows finish with more than about 25 seats that can be counted as a strong performance under the circumstances.
In PB tradition I would be happy to have a little wager with you @pigeon that the yellows exceed 30 seats. I think people are alot more clued up on tactical voting than you are allowing.
Perhaps, but I must respectfully decline. I am content to make public predictions and be called out for getting them disastrously wrong, but I very rarely gamble real money on anything. An annual bet on the National and the occasional Lotto ticket is about as far as I go most of the time. Given that I possess the predictive acumen of the typical astrologer, I find that I lose less cash that way
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Many people have never been on a bus
Indeed the last time I used a bus (not a tour bus) was in the sixties when I lived in Edinburgh
But although you have said you are voting Conservative you are not a politician attempting to represent the people. If you were, and I were your election agent, I’d order you to get out fast and spend some time amongst the people you wish to serve by using some trains and, yes, even buses.
And unfortunately your comment does rather reinforce the notion to me that Conservative voters are completely out of touch with ordinary people.
That shows you're the one out of touch.
Most ordinary adults don't use public transport.
As far back as 1974, Jeremy Thorpe used a hovercraft.
Just copying Jon Pertwee. Always chasing the zeitgeist.
I could probably stand to be a Tory MP in 6 weeks time, now, couldn't I?
Don't worry, I'm not going to.
Do it, you'd certainly put in more of a fight for a constituency than plenty of candidates will on all sides (not always by choice, to be fair, as they help out in more winnable areas).
In China, people would only be held to account over the PO if they had offended the party bosses, in some way.
Of course, one way party bossed may be offended - and NOT just in China - is by creating such a stinking mess, that it causes THEM great pain & suffering, by having to (generally mis-)handle it.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
Lowering the voting age to 16 was in the 2015, 2017 & 2019 manifestos, so not really a big surprise that it will be in this one.
I assume they are also planning on correspondingly lowering the age for Jury Service, buying alcohol, entering into contracts, driving and serving on the front line in the armed forces? Voting is just as important as all these things so it is hypocritical to argue that that one aspect of adulthood should be changed but not the others.
Oh and I would also expect them to end the compulsion to remain in education until 18. After all why should the Government be forcing adults to stay in education against their will?
I disagree with those who say that there should be a consistent bright line divide between childhood and adulthood - that simply doesn't reflect the messy nature of reality. Besides, we've never had a single age for any of this, have we?
Driving, for instance - it's 13 for farms, 16 for people in receipt of the mobility component of PIP, 17 for everyone else.
Alcohol is legal at 5(!) to drink at home, 14 when accompanied by an adult in a bar or restaurant, 16 to be able to serve or sell alcohol, or 18 to buy it alone.
The Armed Forces recruit at 16 for full-time roles, but 18 for reservists.
The agent of consent generally is 16, but sexual activity between 13-15 year olds is usually treated less seriously. It's illegal for an adult in a position of trust to have sex with someone under 18.
Some contracts are voidable if one of the parties is under 18 - but if it's something like for terms of use, then it's 13 instead.
So, similarly, it might be reasonable to argue for a voting age of 13 for councils or referendums, 16 for parliaments, mayors, or assemblies, and 18 to be able to stand for election.
And yet you want to take one of (if not the) the most important duties of an adult in this country and lower the age at which it can be done whilst refusing to similarly change that age for things like Jury service or signing contracts. And you want to do it because you think it will give political advantage to one set of beliefs over another. You will allow children to vote on the future of this country but not buy alcohol (which you dishonestly changed to 'drink' in your reply) or fight in the country's wars (Under 18s are legally forbidden from serving in war zones but again you try to obscure the argument by changing the wording). It is a thoroughly hypocritical and indefensible position.
Er, I didn't say I wanted to do anything.
Not exactly sure why you're claiming that I'm being dishonest, either - the only point I was making is that we don't set a single age for any of this stuff at the moment, and that I'd disagree with changing things to do so in the future. Not everything in life has to be uniform!
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
In Scotland and Wales the voting age is 16 too (for the locals and devolved parliaments).
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
Almost everything he posted was hilariously wrong.
Who could forget his posting that graph comparing the annual price cap in the U.K. with the average monthly bill for a two bed flat in Vienna?
Or his claim that Scotland provided most of England's water?
Or - my particular favourite - that Scotland had more wind power than England?
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
Carole Vorderman pushing some rumour that Sunak will step down and Cameron will run as leader.
Maybe I'm too in the weeds of politics to follow perceptions of those who are not, but I don't follow the internal logic of why such a thing would happen. Like, why in the cirumstances of the former would the latter be seen as the option?
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Many people have never been on a bus
Indeed the last time I used a bus (not a tour bus) was in the sixties when I lived in Edinburgh
But although you have said you are voting Conservative you are not a politician attempting to represent the people. If you were, and I were your election agent, I’d order you to get out fast and spend some time amongst the people you wish to serve by using some trains and, yes, even buses.
And unfortunately your comment does rather reinforce the notion to me that Conservative voters are completely out of touch with ordinary people.
That shows you're the one out of touch.
Most ordinary adults don't use public transport.
I use public transport buses mainly all the time, despite the bus service being fairly good as bus services go I know exactly why it won't replace the car for most. The only reason I get away with the pain is it is rare for me to go anywhere outside walking distance.
To cite an example got the fossils round for dinner tomorrow so had to go to the large tesco's in town. Had to first get a bus to the town centre by bus....then get another bus to get off at the tesco's....total time taken was 1.5 hours...got a taxi home with the shopping total transit time 5 minutes
Totally off topic, but for my one allowed picture of the day, went to see a show called Unfortunate, the untold story of Ursula the sea witch.
Ursula is my wife's favourite villain so this was my anniversary present for her. We both loved it. If anyone gets the opportunity to see it while it's on tour, I would highly recommend it, was hilarious.
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
In Scotland and Wales the voting age is 16 too (for the locals and devolved parliaments).
Yes, I imagine Rentoul is taking a broader definition of national elections to exclude devolved government.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
On the helicopter thing. Its the long campaign for another week, and the chopper means he can cover more ground. Its already priced in that he likes to fly above the plebs, why stop now?
More oddly why have Labour decided to deprive themselves of using helicopters ? If Starmer steps on one he's now open to accusations of hypocrisy. As you say they have been used extensively in most election campaigns.
Blair on a plane, Howard planned to use a helicopter but had to use a plane. Cameron used helicopters.
Do people really think that leading politicians during a GE campaign are on the National Express to all these campaign visits?
Well, Ed Davey was swanning around on a YACHT in Chichester earlier, like some kind of Bond villain and/or Russian oligarch.
I might be exaggerating slightly there, but it was a bit Howards Way.
Ted Heath used to do the same and Davey is targeting Heathite Remainer Tories in the Chichester area by taking a boat around the Solent
Heath was genuinely a very good yachtsman, and it was pretty impressive to win the Admiral's Cup (at the time quite a big event) as PM. Alright, it's a team thing and his was third British yacht over the line, but still better than most of us achieve in sporting terms.
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
There's a semi-interesting quasi-connection between Rishi Sunak's campaign launch, and my own experience with National Express.
Because the last time I rode on a NE coach, from Golders Green bus terminal to STN during a rain storm, my luggage was thoughtfully place underneath a leak and was totally soaked when I arrived at the airport.
On the National Express, there's a jolly hostess selling crisps and tea. She'll provide you with drinks and theatrical winks for a sky-high fee
But it's hard to survive, when your arse is the size, of a small countr-eeee
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
In Scotland and Wales the voting age is 16 too (for the locals and devolved parliaments).
Old Rentoul would consider those minor regional elections, far removed from the profound titanic battles of ideas between eg Starmer Lab and Sunak Cons.
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.
It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.
When did you get to be site moderator? I thought you were off in the wilds of Scandinavia writing a novel about interesting conversations on buses and how we can avoid climate change by storing extra boiled water in thermos flasks?*
*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?
Because you end up re-boiling the ullage each time. And one doesn't always need it boiling hot, e.g. for instant coffee.
No ullage if you built the exact amount, as I suggested.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
Almost everything he posted was hilariously wrong.
Who could forget his posting that graph comparing the annual price cap in the U.K. with the average monthly bill for a two bed flat in Vienna?
Or his claim that Scotland provided most of England's water?
Or - my particular favourite - that Scotland had more wind power than England?
I enjoyed his Sweden will never join NATO weeks before they announced ascension talks.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
James?
Constantly questioning Mike’s rules when not in possession of all the facts.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
Almost everything he posted was hilariously wrong.
Who could forget his posting that graph comparing the annual price cap in the U.K. with the average monthly bill for a two bed flat in Vienna?
Or his claim that Scotland provided most of England's water?
Or - my particular favourite - that Scotland had more wind power than England?
Amazing how many PBers still like talking about him though. His ears must be in a constant state of conflagration.
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.
It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.
When did you get to be site moderator? I thought you were off in the wilds of Scandinavia writing a novel about interesting conversations on buses and how we can avoid climate change by storing extra boiled water in thermos flasks?*
*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?
Because you end up re-boiling the ullage each time. And one doesn't always need it boiling hot, e.g. for instant coffee.
No ullage if you built the exact amount, as I suggested.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
Almost everything he posted was hilariously wrong.
Who could forget his posting that graph comparing the annual price cap in the U.K. with the average monthly bill for a two bed flat in Vienna?
Or his claim that Scotland provided most of England's water?
Or - my particular favourite - that Scotland had more wind power than England?
Amazing how many PBers still like talking about him though. His ears must be in a constant state of conflagration.
Well, that should keep him nice and warm in the frozen north of Sweden.
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.
It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.
When did you get to be site moderator? I thought you were off in the wilds of Scandinavia writing a novel about interesting conversations on buses and how we can avoid climate change by storing extra boiled water in thermos flasks?*
*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?
Because you end up re-boiling the ullage each time. And one doesn't always need it boiling hot, e.g. for instant coffee.
No ullage if you built the exact amount, as I suggested.
Ullage is fresh air. Not boilable
When I worked in pubs it was the beer lost in the drip trays etc.
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?
Wrong question, because until 1918 it was based on property/income not age. There were examples of 19 year old MPs in the eighteenth century including this one.
In the period 1919-20 most countries were setting the age at around 20-21 - Weimar Germany was 20.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?
I wasn't arguing that the fact others don't do it is a reason we shouldn't do it - that's irrelevant as to whether it is a good idea or not - I was simply surprised the campaign has been so successful despite so few others do it. I have no idea if that was similarly the case from the reduction from 21.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
Thanks for the kind comments, but I'm not going to do it.
I have a demanding full-time job, a young family, and charity trustee responsibilities. I'm not very good at the small-p side of politics, and I have a thin skin. And I'm not travelling for a seat - local one is taken - because I think being an MP is a shit job with poor pay.
Even if none of that were true I'm not even sure my membership is still active yet alone am I on the approved parliamentary list.
However, I did successfully stand for election this year at my charity AGM, with a hustings in front of 200 or so people, which is something of a win and vaguely public service related.
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?
Wrong question, because until 1918 it was based on property/income not age. There were examples of 19 year old MPs in the eighteenth century including this one.
In the period 1919-20 most countries were setting the age at around 20-21 - Weimar Germany was 20.
Not surprised that Germany was ahead of us - that seems to have been the rule for most social reforms since the 1870s.
Interestingly, it seems that we were first to the party "amongst democratic nations" in dropping the voting age to 18 - I'd thought the Russian elections in 1917 were open to 18 year olds, but it seems that was only for serving soldiers, for everyone else it was 20.
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?
Wrong question, because until 1918 it was based on property/income not age. There were examples of 19 year old MPs in the eighteenth century including this one.
In the period 1919-20 most countries were setting the age at around 20-21 - Weimar Germany was 20.
Pre 1832, even some women could vote, due to property ownership.
Would be lowest SNP share at Westminster in Scotland since 2010
Also implies the Lib Dems will be challenging quite strongly the SNP in the Highlands and the Tories in the Norrh East
In 2017 the LDs got 4 seats on 6.8% of the vote in Scotland, on such a low voteshare it's impressive they managed to get a proportionate number of seats on FPTP. It's incredible how low their vote has gone across most seats.
The Tories potentially maintaining their seats in Scotland during a potential landslide loss when they still only had 1 when they won a majority in 2015 is likewise pretty noteworthy - the May result, albeit not down to her necessarily, is overlooked in how remarkable it was.
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?
I wasn't arguing that the fact others don't do it is a reason we shouldn't do it - that's irrelevant as to whether it is a good idea or not - I was simply surprised the campaign has been so successful despite so few others do it. I have no idea if that was similarly the case from the reduction from 21.
It happened at much the same time in the USA (1971) Germany (1975) Australia (1973) France (1974).
Though I expect to happen and once done I wouldn't cause a fuss about this, if Rentoul is right I am surprised how effective the votes at 16 people have been, as it does seem to be something a lot of people in the party regard as sacrosanct now. One and done.
What was the situation when the UK voting age was lowered to 21 - am I right in thinking that we were one of the first countries to do that, too?
Wrong question, because until 1918 it was based on property/income not age. There were examples of 19 year old MPs in the eighteenth century including this one.
In the period 1919-20 most countries were setting the age at around 20-21 - Weimar Germany was 20.
Not surprised that Germany was ahead of us - that seems to have been the rule for most social reforms since the 1870s.
Interestingly, it seems that we were first to the party "amongst democratic nations" in dropping the voting age to 18 - I'd thought the Russian elections in 1917 were open to 18 year olds, but it seems that was only for serving soldiers, for everyone else it was 20.
The 1918 general election extended the franchise to all veterans of the armed forces who had served in WW1, regardless of age.
So it seems likely some 16 year olds did vote then.
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
Never? Not a school bus? Or at the airport?
So he assures me.
Apparently Winston Churchill never went on a bus either.
Did you not get @JamesKelly cancelled for posting stuff like that?
No.
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
It's remarkable how enduring this misunderstanding has been.
Indeed.
So, for the benefit of the ignorant (me), why was he kicked out?
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
Is it that Scotch subsamples are only worth noting when they're bad for the SNP?
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
???
Mike had two golden rules
1) Any poll you don't like is clearly an outlier
2) The most accurate poll is the one which has Labour doing worst (but Corbyn ruined that.)
Here on this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific) in the USA, it is the Memorial Day Weekend, with next Monday as Memorial Day - the official Federal holiday (banks closed) by law on last Monday in May, honoring the war dead of America's deadly wars
Established shortly after the Civil War as "Decoration Day" so called because families would decorate the graves of fallen Union soldiers with flowers & other memorials to their sons, husbands, fathers, etc. Which remains the American custom, expanded to soldiers, sailors, airmen & women who died in Spanish American War, Philippine Insurrection, WWI, WW2, Korean War, Vietnam War, Gulf War, Iraq War, Afghanistan War & bunch of other conflicts in between.
For a LONG time, Memorial Day has been regarded in America as THE start to summer.
As in, avoid wearing white BEFORE Memorial Day (or after Labor Day in early September. Memorial Day & Labor Day weekends remain the book-ends of the great American Summer.
There is also a Confederate Memorial Day (various dates) also established after the Civil War, and still legally observed as an official State Holiday in Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas, and official recognized in some manner in Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.
In other words every seceding CSA state except Arkansas plus two border states represented in Confederate Congress and which supplied large numbers of soldiers to the Rebel Army. Back in the day, and up to present day, a political football for whomever what's to kick it around.
Naturally embraced by many racists AND reactionaries (note prominence of Confederate battle flag at Trump's January 2021 jamboree).
HOWEVER it would be wrong to conclude that all who still observe Confederate Memorial Day in some fashion are part of that crowd. Many, indeed most are NOT, but are rather people who have a family connection with some (by now most certainly) dead Rebel soldier.
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
Is it that Scotch subsamples are only worth noting when they're bad for the SNP?
Don't be idiotic, a subsample of around 60 is about as accurate as an American war movie.
Ah - the first really notable poll of the campaign. From a very good pollster and one which theoretically should not be moving merely due to undecideds picking a side. Perhaps a straw in the wind but there are two massive caveats.
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
I refer you to OGH’s Golden Rule about opinion polls
???
Mike had two golden rules
1) Any poll you don't like is clearly an outlier
2) The most accurate poll is the one which has Labour doing worst (but Corbyn ruined that.)
I could see Labour getting anything between 39% and 49%.
I don't know which way, but I'd doubt the latter just because they find it harder to turn out their base, and will struggle to do so this time in some of their safer seats.
Comments
But it may not be the TV debates that do it. Sunak’s brilliance in debate may be his undoing. He was considered to have done badly in the TV debates in the Tory leadership election two years ago. He took Liz Truss’s arguments apart in ways that were richly vindicated by later events, but at the time he was given bad reviews for patronising her, talking over her and generally being an arrogant know-it-all.
The thing about a plot twist is that it should not be in a direction that the audience expects. Every time I thought that the narrative may be about to change, it got worse for Sunak instead.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/tv-debates-general-election-rishi-sunak-b2551462.html
But you've got to take care - the provision of more public transport tends to be popular, even in areas with high levels of car ownership.
It would be out of touch to suggest that people don't want it.
Tories lose 1,000 years of experience in days as MPs flee Rishi Sunak's sinking ship
*Genuinely, why not just boil the amount you need each time?
Who knows until they happen just who comes out on top though as I said Starmer will be our next PM anyway
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1lnNv33UkH78NNhro0MNzILkhIqYkyYx5h9Et51OvkoY/edit?usp=sharing
EDIT: Where can you post an image and then link to it with the magic formula
Stuart Dickson had a pattern of passing off subsamples as full blown Scottish polls then post betting odds which was actively misleading for punters which annoyed OGH.
On Polling Day I sent him round all the polling stations to thank the staff and we had a nice pub lunch. We had a £10 side bet the Conservative majority would in the constituency would be larger than it had been in 1983. I lost that one.
My memory of the count was being accosted by some Labour activists who were initially hostile thinking I was an SDP person - when they found out I was a Liberal the mood changed completely and they became very friendly. They thought they might take second place from us - I didn't think it was likely.
The Conservative men, all in similar suits, were aloof and their candidate only appeared at the end - they knew they has won the election easily and were enjoying the moment. I thought even then their "ground game" wasn't much and by the mid 90s it had atrophied completely.
Don't worry, I'm not going to.
Note that the late Gov. Lawton Chiles won the governorship of Florida, by walking the length & breath of the Sunshine State - 1,030 miles over 91 days from Pensacola to Key West
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawton_Chiles
". . . . The walk earned him the recognition he sought, as well as the nickname that would follow him throughout his political career– "Walkin' Lawton". In his journal Chiles wrote that sometimes he walked alone, while other times he met ordinary Floridians along the way. In later years, Chiles would recall the walk allowed him to see Florida's natural beauty, as well as the state's problems, with fresh eyes. . . ."
SSI - Reckon that our own BlancheLivermore could get elected as MP of some likely (and hopefully scenic) constituency, just by walking across it at accustomed pace and meeting folks in usual manner. Very similar to Lawton Chiles, though he did NOT have added bonus of a postal route.
Am very serious about this IF that is BL every chooses to figuratively follow in the footseps of "Walkin' Lawton". Who FYI & BTW was one of Florida's better governors, certainly in the top tier.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cmll9nwz3wlo
Has she never been to Holland before?
One and done.
Not exactly sure why you're claiming that I'm being dishonest, either - the only point I was making is that we don't set a single age for any of this stuff at the moment, and that I'd disagree with changing things to do so in the future. Not everything in life has to be uniform!
Who could forget his posting that graph comparing the annual price cap in the U.K. with the average monthly bill for a two bed flat in Vienna?
Or his claim that Scotland provided most of England's water?
Or - my particular favourite - that Scotland had more wind power than England?
1) We need a second Opinium poll to frank the form. There is a chance this is the opposite example of the YouGov 30% lead.
2) The movement (if real) gets the Govt back to where it was in mid-January. It would have to be sustained if it is to become significant. Even sustained to polling day at this rate this would put Starmer into No 10.
However, this may give some heart to No 10 and Con activists. It could also be a cue to fill your boots if you see a 2017-style election looming. Personally I am a cautious soul and I'll need convincing a wee bit more.
To cite an example got the fossils round for dinner tomorrow so had to go to the large tesco's in town. Had to first get a bus to the town centre by bus....then get another bus to get off at the tesco's....total time taken was 1.5 hours...got a taxi home with the shopping total transit time 5 minutes
Totally off topic, but for my one allowed picture of the day, went to see a show called Unfortunate, the untold story of Ursula the sea witch.
Ursula is my wife's favourite villain so this was my anniversary present for her. We both loved it. If anyone gets the opportunity to see it while it's on tour, I would highly recommend it, was hilarious.
https://unfortunatemusical.com
I think most of us are of an age to only really remember Heath as a portly, sulking gent towards the end, but he was really considered rather dashing at that time, and not totally without merit.
Constantly questioning Mike’s rules when not in possession of all the facts.
Known to his unfriends as Professor Murphaloon.
Also quite uniquely vicious in banning people from his blog who point out evidence to the contrary.
The Conservatives are going to do OK. Pick the right seat and you'll be home and hosed.
Opinium
@OpiniumResearch
Our latest polling with
@ObserverUK
Labour starts the #GE2024 campaign with 14-point lead:
· Labour 41% (-2)
· Conservatives 27% (+2)
· Lib Dems 10% (+1)
· SNP 2% (-1)
· Greens 7% (n/c)
· Reform 10% (n/c)
Fieldwork: 23-24 May.
Changes from 15-17 May.
In the period 1919-20 most countries were setting the age at around 20-21 - Weimar Germany was 20.
SKS maj 186
National Prediction: Labour majority 186
Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 44.7% 376 27.0% 1 216 -215 161
LAB 33.0% 197 41.0% 224 3 +221 418
LIB 11.8% 8 10.0% 27 0 +27 35
Reform 2.1% 0 10.0% 0 0 +0 0
Green 2.8% 1 7.0% 1 0 +1 2
I have a demanding full-time job, a young family, and charity trustee responsibilities. I'm not very good at the small-p side of politics, and I have a thin skin. And I'm not travelling for a seat - local one is taken - because I think being an MP is a shit job with poor pay.
Even if none of that were true I'm not even sure my membership is still active yet alone am I on the approved parliamentary list.
However, I did successfully stand for election this year at my charity AGM, with a hustings in front of 200 or so people, which is something of a win and vaguely public service related.
Interestingly, it seems that we were first to the party "amongst democratic nations" in dropping the voting age to 18 - I'd thought the Russian elections in 1917 were open to 18 year olds, but it seems that was only for serving soldiers, for everyone else it was 20.
The Tories potentially maintaining their seats in Scotland during a potential landslide loss when they still only had 1 when they won a majority in 2015 is likewise pretty noteworthy - the May result, albeit not down to her necessarily, is overlooked in how remarkable it was.
So it seems likely some 16 year olds did vote then.
Apparently Winston Churchill never went on a bus either.
1) Any poll you don't like is clearly an outlier
2) The most accurate poll is the one which has Labour doing worst (but Corbyn ruined that.)
Established shortly after the Civil War as "Decoration Day" so called because families would decorate the graves of fallen Union soldiers with flowers & other memorials to their sons, husbands, fathers, etc. Which remains the American custom, expanded to soldiers, sailors, airmen & women who died in Spanish American War, Philippine Insurrection, WWI, WW2, Korean War, Vietnam War, Gulf War, Iraq War, Afghanistan War & bunch of other conflicts in between.
For a LONG time, Memorial Day has been regarded in America as THE start to summer.
As in, avoid wearing white BEFORE Memorial Day (or after Labor Day in early September. Memorial Day & Labor Day weekends remain the book-ends of the great American Summer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorial_Day
There is also a Confederate Memorial Day (various dates) also established after the Civil War, and still legally observed as an official State Holiday in Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas, and official recognized in some manner in Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.
In other words every seceding CSA state except Arkansas plus two border states represented in Confederate Congress and which supplied large numbers of soldiers to the Rebel Army. Back in the day, and up to present day, a political football for whomever what's to kick it around.
Naturally embraced by many racists AND reactionaries (note prominence of Confederate battle flag at Trump's January 2021 jamboree).
HOWEVER it would be wrong to conclude that all who still observe Confederate Memorial Day in some fashion are part of that crowd. Many, indeed most are NOT, but are rather people who have a family connection with some (by now most certainly) dead Rebel soldier.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederate_Memorial_Day
My special boiled flask water seems to be catching on with my Devonian friends. Apparently they prefer that to cryptosporidiosis.
I don't know which way, but I'd doubt the latter just because they find it harder to turn out their base, and will struggle to do so this time in some of their safer seats.