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Coming to a Lib Dem bar chart near you – politicalbetting.com

1911131415

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,054
    On the face of it and certainly on here it seems a very controversial policy

    It will be interesting how it is received in the populace generally and how Sunak attempts to sell it
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,120
    kle4 said:

    For the last time, it is NOT military service, it is mostly people volunteering every week for a year.

    One weekend a month in the voluntary sector
    The national service sector.
    The Big Unpaid Society.

    Maybe Dave is making a comeback after all.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415
    Hasn't won over the Reclaim Party voters.


    Laurence Fox
    @LozzaFox
    ·
    4m
    No thanks. I’m not sending my kids off to die to pay for the coke habit of some Eastern European mafia boss.

    https://x.com/LozzaFox
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,809

    For the last time, it is NOT military service, it is mostly people volunteering every week for a year.

    One weekend a month in the voluntary sector
    Making you work free for the state. It's a tax on the least well paid.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,753
    edited May 25
    rkrkrk said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    There are many more boomers. It's a net positive I'd guess.

    Tbh I think its smart from sunak. He needs a few game changers, this might be one.
    It's true that the Conservatives are being smashed by Reform in the key cohort 65+, which is the rough crossover point with Labour. The Tory vote has aged by about 25 years since 2019.

    Long term, they need to think about getting that crossover age back down to 40. Policies like this are good for the next 6 weeks; dreadful for the next 6 years.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    rkrkrk said:
    "So I have called in my book for a compulsory national civic service for all. You can see it’s the Peterborough side me that called for that, because the more liberal Tottenham side me would never have used the word compulsory because there’s an aversion to compulsion in the Labour Party! But if you’re serious about nation building, which is what I think we’ve got to be serious about, then you have to be serious about obligation as well as choice. Choice is an interesting word, because it goes to the heart of the New Labour period and the age of individualism that we’re now in. So I do deliberately talk about compulsion. I do deliberately talk about duty. But, let me just be clear, this is about civic service, not the armed services, because I think that would be controversial. But some engagement in our nation, and in building our nation, is important."

    I think David might be a bit busy to talk to the media for a few days.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    On Bet365

    Tories 49 seats or less at 12/1
    50-99 seats at 11/4
    100-149 at 15/8
    150-199 at 9/4

    The rest are not worth looking at.

    Before I was thinking between 150 and 175.

    Now I'm thinking 100-125. 150 now their best case scenario.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415
    Eabhal said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    There are many more boomers. It's a net positive I'd guess.

    Tbh I think its smart from sunak. He needs a few game changers, this might be one.
    It's true that the Conservatives are being smashed by Reform in the key cohort 65+, which is the rough crossover point with Labour. The Tory vote has aged by about 25 years since 2019.

    Long term, they need to think about getting that crossover age back down to 40. Policies like this are good for the next 6 weeks; dreadful for the next 6 years.
    There is no "long term" in Tory bunker at moment.




  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,176
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    National Service is not just a good policy, in about a year it will be unavoidable

    Hope you're limbering up.
    Under employed well to do layabouts in their fifties are the obvious available demographic.
    He's not in his fifties any more.
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    Rishi Sunak has announced that he will bring back national service if re-elected, offering youngsters a choice between serving in the military for a year or a scheme to volunteer for one weekend a month for a year

    In September we found that 64% of Britons would oppose year-long compulsory military service for young people - although older Britons were much less likely to oppose than their younger peers

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1794481011574591682
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,281
    Eabhal said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    There are many more boomers. It's a net positive I'd guess.

    Tbh I think its smart from sunak. He needs a few game changers, this might be one.
    It's true that the Conservatives are being smashed by Reform in the key cohort 65+, which is the rough crossover point with Labour. The Tory vote has aged by about 25 years since 2019.

    Long term, they need to think about getting that crossover age back down to 40. Policies like this are good for the next 6 weeks; dreadful for the next 6 years.
    According to the latest Yougov Reform do best with over 50s but still trail the Tories with all age groups over 25, however Reform lead the Tories with under 25s and are tied with the Greens and LDs in that bracket
    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240524_W.pdf
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    Scott_xP said:

    @Samfr

    The national service nonsense does give me the opportunity to tweet one of my favourite recent bits of polling when Ipsos actually ran the famous "Yes Minister" questions as a randomised experiment, and showed that it worked.

    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1794484909689487486

    Some bugger showed Rishi the first set of questions and he leapt on it, didn't he?
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,120
    Scott_xP said:

    @Aiannucci

    I think Sunak chose to announce in the rain to disguise the crying.

    I know I've asked before, but is there any chance you can actually link to the source? X/twitter is useless to we non-Musk contributors otherwise.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,753
    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    For the last time, it is NOT military service, it is mostly people volunteering every week for a year.

    One weekend a month in the voluntary sector
    The national service sector.
    The Big Unpaid Society.

    Maybe Dave is making a comeback after all.
    Difficult, but it might be possible for Labour to turn this into a debate about slavery and the gig economy.

    "Compulsory volunteering" might be Sunak's death tax.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,782

    Well, Sunak has certainly grabbed the news agenda I guess.

    His dead cat on the table moment perhaps.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,142

    rkrkrk said:
    "So I have called in my book for a compulsory national civic service for all. You can see it’s the Peterborough side me that called for that, because the more liberal Tottenham side me would never have used the word compulsory because there’s an aversion to compulsion in the Labour Party! But if you’re serious about nation building, which is what I think we’ve got to be serious about, then you have to be serious about obligation as well as choice. Choice is an interesting word, because it goes to the heart of the New Labour period and the age of individualism that we’re now in. So I do deliberately talk about compulsion. I do deliberately talk about duty. But, let me just be clear, this is about civic service, not the armed services, because I think that would be controversial. But some engagement in our nation, and in building our nation, is important."

    I think David might be a bit busy to talk to the media for a few days.
    I wouldn't disagree with Lammy's thesis in the context it was written. It needs a look.

    To invent some old shite that hasn't been thought through because you think it might trigger Reform voters is altogether less optimal.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    Scott_xP said:

    @SeanJonesKC

    Tory offer to young people:

    1. We’ll take away your smartphones;
    2. Compulsory maths exams until 18; and
    3. “Compulsory voluntary” service thereafter.

    They just need:

    4. You’re not going out looking like that; and
    5. Don’t use that tone of voice with me.

    6. It was much harder in my day, so we should make it harder for you too.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,555
    @darrenmccaffrey

    On a purely ideological level, is national service a very conservative idea? 🤷🏻‍♂️

    Isn’t it essentially the state telling adults how they must spend their free time?

    Interesting discussion
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,782
    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    Andy_JS said:

    Well, Sunak has certainly grabbed the news agenda I guess.

    His dead cat on the table moment perhaps.
    In this case it was a dead lion and it smashed through the cheap plywood table and is stinking up the living room.

    You're supposed to be able to take the dead cat away when you want to.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,200

    Essentially what this actually is, is forced volunteering in the community for every 18 year old. Surely they should be paid minimum wage?

    Yes, obviously - even prisoners get paid for any work they do.

    Arguably, they should be paid more than minimum wage to cover them for the likely loss of earnings resulting from participation in this compulsory scheme.

    For instance, most employers would rather have someone who's available every weekend, rather than only 3/4 of them. 18 year olds will therefore be disadvantaged in the job market, and should expect to receive compensation for that.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,390

    rkrkrk said:
    "So I have called in my book for a compulsory national civic service for all. You can see it’s the Peterborough side me that called for that, because the more liberal Tottenham side me would never have used the word compulsory because there’s an aversion to compulsion in the Labour Party! But if you’re serious about nation building, which is what I think we’ve got to be serious about, then you have to be serious about obligation as well as choice. Choice is an interesting word, because it goes to the heart of the New Labour period and the age of individualism that we’re now in. So I do deliberately talk about compulsion. I do deliberately talk about duty. But, let me just be clear, this is about civic service, not the armed services, because I think that would be controversial. But some engagement in our nation, and in building our nation, is important."

    I think David might be a bit busy to talk to the media for a few days.
    They'll go with the money / levelling up line.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,997
    AlsoLei said:

    Essentially what this actually is, is forced volunteering in the community for every 18 year old. Surely they should be paid minimum wage?

    Yes, obviously - even prisoners get paid for any work they do.

    Arguably, they should be paid more than minimum wage to cover them for the likely loss of earnings resulting from participation in this compulsory scheme.

    For instance, most employers would rather have someone who's available every weekend, rather than only 3/4 of them. 18 year olds will therefore be disadvantaged in the job market, and should expect to receive compensation for that.
    It will certainly sting for people to lose out on paid employment for this volunteering opportunity.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,809
    When a disaster happens, people often want to help, but the best way for most people to help is to work an hour of overtime at their regular job and donate that money to the experts. That's because people are good at their jobs, but not good at randomly helping in a disaster.

    18 year olds doing 25 days of volunteering are not going to be the most effective volunteers and won't learn very much. Even those doing a year in the armed forces aren't going to be very good soldiers until the end of their year. If society needs all these things to be done, tax people and spend the money on professionals.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,054
    edited May 25
    Scott_xP said:

    @SeanJonesKC

    Tory offer to young people:

    1. We’ll take away your smartphones;
    2. Compulsory maths exams until 18; and
    3. “Compulsory voluntary” service thereafter.

    They just need:

    4. You’re not going out looking like that; and
    5. Don’t use that tone of voice with me.

    Point of order

    The HOC select committee have recommended that you have to be 16 to own a smartphone

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmm0zgx9zno
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    edited May 25
    If they had any sense they would run this shit past a panel of PB posters....within 30 mins we have already tuned this steaming pile of poo into perhaps an interesting policy idea and even got the tag line for it.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,555
    Apparently Tory MPs are not thrilled by this announcement
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    I don't in any way think people need to be parents to be political leaders, but I wonder if Rishi contemplated running this by his kids before announcing it just as a sense check.
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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,176

    Scott_xP said:

    @SeanJonesKC

    Tory offer to young people:

    1. We’ll take away your smartphones;
    2. Compulsory maths exams until 18; and
    3. “Compulsory voluntary” service thereafter.

    They just need:

    4. You’re not going out looking like that; and
    5. Don’t use that tone of voice with me.

    Point of order

    The HOC select committee have recommended that you have to be 16 to own a smartphone

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmm0zgx9zno
    Seven of the eleven on that committee are Conservatives.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,997
    Will be interesting to see how Tory MPs react to this. It must be the first some of them have heard of the idea. You'd imagine at least a few will have reservations
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415

    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    22m
    As for the military bit of the national service plan, this is what Sunak’s official spokesman said about military national service in January: “The British military has a proud tradition of being a voluntary force. There are no plans to change that.”

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1794489939742052542
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,234
    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston
    If you wondered where Rishi Sunak got the idea for compulsory national service, it was proposed last August by the right think tank Onward. Sunak’s deputy chief of staff Will Tanner was a founder and initial director of Onward

    Onward is not a right wing think tank.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    edited May 25

    I suspect many pensioners think that National Service is a jolly good idea for other people's grandchildren.
    But not their own.

    It will be announced that the service could include volunteering to visit your own grandparents.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415
    rkrkrk said:

    Will be interesting to see how Tory MPs react to this. It must be the first some of them have heard of the idea. You'd imagine at least a few will have reservations

    They are all standing down apart from the two dozen who think they will be leader in September.
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,076
    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    And if it's only popular with people who are going to vote for you anyway?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,522
    Thankfully this policy will never actually happen. I never bothered doing D of E at school and I have no regrets about that. Going to have to think about what I do on 4 July.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,860
    It’s no good changing your name from Nicola Sturgeon, people will still recognise you.
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    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,532
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    Eabhal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    For the last time, it is NOT military service, it is mostly people volunteering every week for a year.

    One weekend a month in the voluntary sector
    The national service sector.
    The Big Unpaid Society.

    Maybe Dave is making a comeback after all.
    Difficult, but it might be possible for Labour to turn this into a debate about slavery and the gig economy.

    "Compulsory volunteering" might be Sunak's death tax.
    I think we'll be spoilt for choice.

    I honestly didn't think the campaign had gotten off to that bad a start, most of the talk seemed to be focused on silly memes and minor flubs, not great but not a big deal either.

    But this idea, in this way? Death wish territory.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,142
    Eabhal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    For the last time, it is NOT military service, it is mostly people volunteering every week for a year.

    One weekend a month in the voluntary sector
    The national service sector.
    The Big Unpaid Society.

    Maybe Dave is making a comeback after all.
    Difficult, but it might be possible for Labour to turn this into a debate about slavery and the gig economy.

    "Compulsory volunteering" might be Sunak's death tax.
    Sunak is talking to some of the voters still in the Conservatives camp and Reform voters. Does he lose as many remaining one-nation Tories as he gains the swivel -eyed from Reform? I don't think this brings back many Con to Labour switchers.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,648
    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,185
    Rishi Sunak's announcement committing CUP to reviving National Service for Uker youth, is pretty clearly aimed at older voters.

    However, note that original cold-war National Service was fazed out starting in 1957 and ended in 1963, meaning that an 18-year old back in that year, born circa 1945, would be turning 78 this year.

    So those who actually conscripted are at the higher end of the geezer-meter.

    On the other hand, what's potential that youth turnout on 4th of July will be boosted, by Tory promise - or rather threat in their case - to re-establish National Service? A group notoriously difficult to turn out UNLESS you give them a big incentive.

    Perhaps time to recycle in UK the old anti-war US slogan: "Draft beer, not students".
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    eekeek Posts: 26,016

    On the face of it and certainly on here it seems a very controversial policy

    It will be interesting how it is received in the populace generally and how Sunak attempts to sell it

    Like a bag of sick. Twin A is currently doing her gold DofE sailing with random group of 7 others who she doesn’t know. This is the current topic of conversation and I can safely say no child or parent is voting Tory.

    Now it’s perfectly possible that none of them ever would but that’s a potential 20 votes lost…
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,054
    kle4 said:

    I wonder

    I suspect many pensioners think that National Service is a jolly good idea for other people's grandchildren.
    But not their own.

    It will be announced that the service could include volunteering to visit your own grandparents.
    Our grandchildren cannot wait to visit us and of course they abide by the rule that 'what goes on in Grandma's house stays in Grandma's house'
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,555
    @peterdonaghy

    Typical community sentences for criminal damage, theft or assault are 40-300 hours, so the proposed "volunteering" scheme would be about the middle of the range for those offences
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,176

    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston
    If you wondered where Rishi Sunak got the idea for compulsory national service, it was proposed last August by the right think tank Onward. Sunak’s deputy chief of staff Will Tanner was a founder and initial director of Onward

    Onward is not a right wing think tank.
    Yeah, it is
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    Maybe. Points for boldness I guess. But Theresa May couldn't get away with a bold policy to tackle an urgent need when she looked like she was 20 points ahead, there's no way Rishi can when 20 points behind.

    25 points or more by Tuesday.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,016
    kle4 said:

    I suspect many pensioners think that National Service is a jolly good idea for other people's grandchildren.
    But not their own.

    It will be announced that the service could include volunteering to visit your own grandparents.
    I’m glad that I took the 25-1 odds bet365 were offering for less than 50 Tory seats - today that looks like a very sane bet
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,375

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    And if it's only popular with people who are going to vote for you anyway?
    I strongly suspect this is the kind of policy that will get young people off their arses and actually voting against them.

    Turnout in the 18-34 group in 2019 was around 53%, vs ~78% for the retired.

    This is the sort of policy that could generate enough viral anger on a youth orientated platform like TikTok to actually get the yoof off their arses and into voting booths.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,947

    kle4 said:

    I wonder

    I suspect many pensioners think that National Service is a jolly good idea for other people's grandchildren.
    But not their own.

    It will be announced that the service could include volunteering to visit your own grandparents.
    Our grandchildren cannot wait to visit us and of course they abide by the rule that 'what goes on in Grandma's house stays in Grandma's house'
    So, you're fair game then?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,648
    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,532
    dixiedean said:

    See. This is the other thing that gets me.
    Why would you choose to work in a SENDMH school when you can get better pay, and much less aggro in a call centre, nail bar or building site?
    And don't mention holidays. Pay for TA's, unlike teachers is pro rata'd.
    They do it because they care.
    They want to be of service, and make a difference.
    And this is the thanks they get.
    I don't like using the F word.
    But I have no other.

    There are a lot of public sector jobs like that. Staff that work long hours at the EA wading through thigh-deep shitwater because a breakwater in disrepair broke and are paid worse than an assistant manager at Aldi. Engineers at RAL who (until recently at least) were paid 50% the national average for their role to keep vital UK infrastructure online. Coppers and firefighters too obviously. Very few do it for the pension or the perks. It's because they see their job as mattering and don't want to leave even though the rewards suck and the ministers are morons. I'm extremely lucky in that I got a regrading that put my salary just about where it should be, but there are roles that are just criminally undergraded or unrecognised.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,142
    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently Tory MPs are not thrilled by this announcement

    "I think I will take Saturday off to reboot my campaign and to avoid any gaffes. Saturday will be my first gaffe free day since I announced the election. What could possibly go wrong?"
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,016
    edited May 25
    kle4 said:

    On Bet365

    Tories 49 seats or less at 12/1
    50-99 seats at 11/4
    100-149 at 15/8
    150-199 at 9/4

    The rest are not worth looking at.

    Before I was thinking between 150 and 175.

    Now I'm thinking 100-125. 150 now their best case scenario.

    Tories 49 seats of less was 25-1,yesterday

    And I’m tempted to top up at 12-1 after todays “announcement”.

    I’m starting to think that Rishi hates the Tory party and wants it to be destroyed by this election

    Question is - when is May’s death tax going to be re-announced
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,648
    edited May 25
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    Maybe. Points for boldness I guess. But Theresa May couldn't get away with a bold policy to tackle an urgent need when she looked like she was 20 points ahead, there's no way Rishi can when 20 points behind.

    25 points or more by Tuesday.
    When Putin starts menacing Moldova, the Baltic states, and Finland, then it won't seem so mad. At all

    Honestly, PB is just a bunch of stupid flailing midwit geeks who can't extrapolate more than 3 months ahead, with some honourable exceptions, who I shall not name to spare their proud blushes
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,390
    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Only 18 year olds can keep the Chinese from Cleethorpes.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,375
    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Nukes. We have nukes.

    How is the meat grinder working out for Ukraine and Russia?

    When we're already under replacement levels, is sending our nation's youth off to die in some foreign war really a good idea?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,753
    Scott_xP said:

    @darrenmccaffrey

    On a purely ideological level, is national service a very conservative idea? 🤷🏻‍♂️

    Isn’t it essentially the state telling adults how they must spend their free time?

    Interesting discussion

    He's an authoritarian conspiracy theorist. Play chess! Don't smoke! Go to war! FIFTEEN MINUTE CITIES! SEVEN BINS!

    I'm sure you're bored with me saying this, but the Conservatives have forgotten how to be conservative.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,947
    I gather that the National Service policy was rigorously tested using a focus group comprising Mark Francois.
  • Options
    Those saying the policy will help with Ukraine don't seem to understand that at most it's 20,000 volunteers for one year.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,648
    edited May 25
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Nukes. We have nukes.

    How is the meat grinder working out for Ukraine and Russia?

    When we're already under replacement levels, is sending our nation's youth off to die in some foreign war really a good idea?
    It won't be a foreign war, you ridiculous cretin

    Is Ukraine "a foreign war"? Maybe to you, because you are dim. I've been there, it is part of Europe, and they are at war, and it is absolutely not foreign

    Poland understands this; we will too, in time
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    edited May 25
    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Then it will get dropped before the manifesto gets launched.

    I think I'll give it a miss.

    I would argue I'm not one given to frequent hysteria, but I've not been this flabbergasted by a political idea and presentation in years, it's inconcievably bad, the MPs will be mutinous, and the more I ponder it the worse it seems to me.

    What the heck was he thinking? - that will be the title of his biography.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,200
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    On Bet365

    Tories 49 seats or less at 12/1
    50-99 seats at 11/4
    100-149 at 15/8
    150-199 at 9/4

    The rest are not worth looking at.

    Before I was thinking between 150 and 175.

    Now I'm thinking 100-125. 150 now their best case scenario.

    Tories 49 seats of less was 25-1,yesterday

    And I’m tempted to top up at 12-1 after todays “announcement”.

    I’m starting to think that Rishi hates the Tory party and wants it to be destroyed by this election

    Question is - when is May’s death tax going to be re-announced
    Betfair currently have £33 available at 16/1 for 0-49 Con seats...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    You normally leave the real big hitter policy announcements for the manifesto launch....I can't wait.....
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,555
    I thought it was a shit idea, indeed i thought it might be a spoof, but Leon's enthusiastic embrace has convinced me.

    It is a shit idea.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,753
    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    and your plan is to give an SA80 to a Vegan, Hamas-supporting trans cyclist and airdrop them over the South China Sea/Estonia?

    What has been shown not to work in Ukraine is mass infantry assaults against artillery and minefields, which is pretty much all a national service bod would be capable of.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,176
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Nukes. We have nukes.

    How is the meat grinder working out for Ukraine and Russia?

    When we're already under replacement levels, is sending our nation's youth off to die in some foreign war really a good idea?
    It won't be a foreign war, you ridiculous cretin

    Is Ukraine "a foreign war"? Maybe to you, because you are dim. I've been there, it is part of Europe, and they are at war, and it is absolutely not foreign

    Poland understands this; we will too, in time
    If the Russians arrived on these shores, you'd join them in a heartbeat.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,555
    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Who gets to try and defend it on the Sunday shows, before it gets dropped?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    kyf_100 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    And if it's only popular with people who are going to vote for you anyway?
    I strongly suspect this is the kind of policy that will get young people off their arses and actually voting against them.

    Turnout in the 18-34 group in 2019 was around 53%, vs ~78% for the retired.

    This is the sort of policy that could generate enough viral anger on a youth orientated platform like TikTok to actually get the yoof off their arses and into voting booths.
    "Don't want to be conscripted? Vote!"

    If that doesn't work, what would?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,142
    edited May 25
    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    It is Leon, but first as a political leader you engage with the voting public. You explain how dangerous Putin is and you develop a conversation to explain that in order to secure a free United Kingdom for our children and our children's children we need to look at certain difficult options.

    You don't ponder "how do we attract crazy ape- bonkers Reform voters? I know send their sons, daughters and grandchildren to Deepcut for 12 months. That should do the trick".
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,648

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    I dunno, off the top of my head, a decent-sized, trained professional army and navy who are supplied with modern and well resourced equipment and training?

    We don't have the numbers. We are struggling to man the army and navy we have, and they are comparatively tiny

    Either we raise the pay for soldiering to a level which requires income tax to double, or we take the easier route, and require national service of all 18 year olds. Which one will be more popular with tax payers, in the end?

    EXTRAPOLATE, you dimwits
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Who gets to try and defend it on the Sunday shows, before it gets dropped?
    Only one man in government has the balls to even attempt it - Michael Gove.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    I wonder how Sir Beer of Korma reacted to this announcement?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,215

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    It is Leon, but first as a political leader you engage with the voting public. You explain how dangerous Putin is and you develop a conversation to explain that in order to secure a free United Kingdom for our children and our children's children we need to look at certain difficult options.

    You don't ponder "how do we attract crazy ape- bonkers Reform voters? I know send their sons, daughters and grandchildren to Deepcut for 12 months. That should do the trick".
    But that’s not the policy. It’s compulsory community service with an exception for people who join the military.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,809
    War is changing. Look at Ukraine and how first person view drones have completely revolutionised the battlefield. Fighting a war is becoming more like a videogame. You need the right people to fight that sort of war. You need people with the right skills, not children who spend all their time on Xbox... Hold on, maybe this is a fantastically good idea!
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 2,403
    edited May 25
    £2.5bn, couldn't that go on like, tuition fees
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415

    Tom Newton Dunn
    @tnewtondunn
    National Service is a very interesting idea, but I’m seriously struggling to understand the Tory costings for it. They nowhere near add up.

    There are 717,000 18 year olds in the UK. Even if only half of them sign up for military service instead of opting for volunteering, the £2.5bn a year the Tories have allocated for it is a per capita spending of £6,000 a head - and that’s to train, equip, house and presumably pay all of them an annual salary.

    Then there is the lost tax revenue to HMT of taking 350,000 out of the workplace (albeit for a good cause and where they learn new skills).

    I can’t see how it won’t end up constituting 10 times that, ie £25bn a year. Unless I’ve missed something quite big here?
  • Options


    Tom Newton Dunn
    @tnewtondunn
    National Service is a very interesting idea, but I’m seriously struggling to understand the Tory costings for it. They nowhere near add up.

    There are 717,000 18 year olds in the UK. Even if only half of them sign up for military service instead of opting for volunteering, the £2.5bn a year the Tories have allocated for it is a per capita spending of £6,000 a head - and that’s to train, equip, house and presumably pay all of them an annual salary.

    Then there is the lost tax revenue to HMT of taking 350,000 out of the workplace (albeit for a good cause and where they learn new skills).

    I can’t see how it won’t end up constituting 10 times that, ie £25bn a year. Unless I’ve missed something quite big here?

    As I said above, it's not 717,000 military, it is at most 20,000. The rest are volunteering for work but without pay.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,415
    May must be laughing her face off tonight.

    Makes her campaign look like New Labour 1997.
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    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,532
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    and your plan is to give an SA80 to a Vegan, Hamas-supporting trans cyclist and airdrop them over the South China Sea/Estonia?

    What has been shown not to work in Ukraine is mass infantry assaults against artillery and minefields, which is pretty much all a national service bod would be capable of.
    Ah but you're discussing it with noted military historian and expert Leon, master of manoeuvre, a tactician on par with Rommel, a strategist on par with Napoleon, a logistician greater than Zhukhov and truly madder than all three.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 12,176

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    It is Leon, but first as a political leader you engage with the voting public. You explain how dangerous Putin is.and you engage a conversation to explain that in order to secure a free United Kingdom for our children and our children's children we need to look at certain difficult options.

    You don't ponder "how do we attract crazy ape- bonkers Reform voters? I know send their sons, daughters and grandchildren to Deepcut for 12 months. That should do the trick".
    Exactly this. Those trying to sell this is a regrettably necessary strategic choice ought to stop and think why it's been dropped out on a Saturday evening by a campaign in crisis mode. If it looks like an ill-conceived panic measure, and quacks like an ill-conceived panic measure, it's a duck.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,555
    Oh, Northern Ireland is not in scope
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,069
    edited May 25
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Who gets to try and defend it on the Sunday shows, before it gets dropped?
    Only one man in government has the balls to even attempt it - Michael Gove.
    Given how often Govey seems to spend time in nightclubs with the youngsters, I am sure he is well aware how such a policy would go down with them.
  • Options

    War is changing. Look at Ukraine and how first person view drones have completely revolutionised the battlefield. Fighting a war is becoming more like a videogame. You need the right people to fight that sort of war. You need people with the right skills, not children who spend all their time on Xbox... Hold on, maybe this is a fantastically good idea!

    Rishi's next job could be in cyber, he just doesn't know it yet
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,809
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Who gets to try and defend it on the Sunday shows, before it gets dropped?
    Who gets to defend it? Presumably an 18-year old conscript.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,522


    Tom Newton Dunn
    @tnewtondunn
    National Service is a very interesting idea, but I’m seriously struggling to understand the Tory costings for it. They nowhere near add up.

    There are 717,000 18 year olds in the UK. Even if only half of them sign up for military service instead of opting for volunteering, the £2.5bn a year the Tories have allocated for it is a per capita spending of £6,000 a head - and that’s to train, equip, house and presumably pay all of them an annual salary.

    Then there is the lost tax revenue to HMT of taking 350,000 out of the workplace (albeit for a good cause and where they learn new skills).

    I can’t see how it won’t end up constituting 10 times that, ie £25bn a year. Unless I’ve missed something quite big here?

    Presumably the assumption is that hardly anyone will actually do it.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,375
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Nukes. We have nukes.

    How is the meat grinder working out for Ukraine and Russia?

    When we're already under replacement levels, is sending our nation's youth off to die in some foreign war really a good idea?
    It won't be a foreign war, you ridiculous cretin

    Is Ukraine "a foreign war"? Maybe to you, because you are dim. I've been there, it is part of Europe, and they are at war, and it is absolutely not foreign

    Poland understands this; we will too, in time
    You're the one who keeps banging on about immigrants. Sending an entire generation off to die more or less ensures the British way of life gets wiped out within a generation anyway.

    So the best bet for Britain is to pull up the drawbridge, and promise mutually assured destruction to anyone threatening our country.

    Or do you reckon British youth are really going to be prepared to pick up a rifle and fight and die if Putin pushes on into Slovakia?

    Britain won't go to war until it's existential. And by the time it's existential for us, it's time to roll out Trident, not a bunch of spotty faced teens with army surplus SA-80s.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,630
    Last thought - couldn't they just make those who arrive on boats do a year of national service 'volunteering', and if they don't they get deported?

    It's a bit slave labour like, but it seems just as likely to appeal to Reform without upsetting any parents or grandparents among Reform voters.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,378
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    I dunno, off the top of my head, a decent-sized, trained professional army and navy who are supplied with modern and well resourced equipment and training?

    We don't have the numbers. We are struggling to man the army and navy we have, and they are comparatively tiny

    Either we raise the pay for soldiering to a level which requires income tax to double, or we take the easier route, and require national service of all 18 year olds. Which one will be more popular with tax payers, in the end?

    EXTRAPOLATE, you dimwits
    'Sorry, sweet child of mine. I know you have career plans, and military service is dangerous, but just think how much tax I will be saving.'
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,643
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Nukes. We have nukes.

    How is the meat grinder working out for Ukraine and Russia?

    When we're already under replacement levels, is sending our nation's youth off to die in some foreign war really a good idea?
    It won't be a foreign war, you ridiculous cretin

    Is Ukraine "a foreign war"? Maybe to you, because you are dim. I've been there, it is part of Europe, and they are at war, and it is absolutely not foreign

    Poland understands this; we will too, in time
    You obviously feel very strongly about this.
    So why aren't you in the country volunteering?
    You could set an example by forcing your daughters into the military and refusing to leave Blighty till we are all safe.
    So why haven't you?
    Just curious.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,200
    Which of Braverman, Patel, and Badenoch is going to be first to comment on their party's new flagship policy?

    And, how soon before the Tory leadership contest kicks off in earnest?
This discussion has been closed.