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Coming to a Lib Dem bar chart near you – politicalbetting.com

1911131415

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  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    Scott_xP said:

    @Aiannucci

    I think Sunak chose to announce in the rain to disguise the crying.

    I know I've asked before, but is there any chance you can actually link to the source? X/twitter is useless to we non-Musk contributors otherwise.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    For the last time, it is NOT military service, it is mostly people volunteering every week for a year.

    One weekend a month in the voluntary sector
    The national service sector.
    The Big Unpaid Society.

    Maybe Dave is making a comeback after all.
    Difficult, but it might be possible for Labour to turn this into a debate about slavery and the gig economy.

    "Compulsory volunteering" might be Sunak's death tax.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    Well, Sunak has certainly grabbed the news agenda I guess.

    His dead cat on the table moment perhaps.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    rkrkrk said:
    "So I have called in my book for a compulsory national civic service for all. You can see it’s the Peterborough side me that called for that, because the more liberal Tottenham side me would never have used the word compulsory because there’s an aversion to compulsion in the Labour Party! But if you’re serious about nation building, which is what I think we’ve got to be serious about, then you have to be serious about obligation as well as choice. Choice is an interesting word, because it goes to the heart of the New Labour period and the age of individualism that we’re now in. So I do deliberately talk about compulsion. I do deliberately talk about duty. But, let me just be clear, this is about civic service, not the armed services, because I think that would be controversial. But some engagement in our nation, and in building our nation, is important."

    I think David might be a bit busy to talk to the media for a few days.
    I wouldn't disagree with Lammy's thesis in the context it was written. It needs a look.

    To invent some old shite that hasn't been thought through because you think it might trigger Reform voters is altogether less optimal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Scott_xP said:

    @SeanJonesKC

    Tory offer to young people:

    1. We’ll take away your smartphones;
    2. Compulsory maths exams until 18; and
    3. “Compulsory voluntary” service thereafter.

    They just need:

    4. You’re not going out looking like that; and
    5. Don’t use that tone of voice with me.

    6. It was much harder in my day, so we should make it harder for you too.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    @darrenmccaffrey

    On a purely ideological level, is national service a very conservative idea? 🤷🏻‍♂️

    Isn’t it essentially the state telling adults how they must spend their free time?

    Interesting discussion
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Andy_JS said:

    Well, Sunak has certainly grabbed the news agenda I guess.

    His dead cat on the table moment perhaps.
    In this case it was a dead lion and it smashed through the cheap plywood table and is stinking up the living room.

    You're supposed to be able to take the dead cat away when you want to.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457

    Essentially what this actually is, is forced volunteering in the community for every 18 year old. Surely they should be paid minimum wage?

    Yes, obviously - even prisoners get paid for any work they do.

    Arguably, they should be paid more than minimum wage to cover them for the likely loss of earnings resulting from participation in this compulsory scheme.

    For instance, most employers would rather have someone who's available every weekend, rather than only 3/4 of them. 18 year olds will therefore be disadvantaged in the job market, and should expect to receive compensation for that.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    rkrkrk said:
    "So I have called in my book for a compulsory national civic service for all. You can see it’s the Peterborough side me that called for that, because the more liberal Tottenham side me would never have used the word compulsory because there’s an aversion to compulsion in the Labour Party! But if you’re serious about nation building, which is what I think we’ve got to be serious about, then you have to be serious about obligation as well as choice. Choice is an interesting word, because it goes to the heart of the New Labour period and the age of individualism that we’re now in. So I do deliberately talk about compulsion. I do deliberately talk about duty. But, let me just be clear, this is about civic service, not the armed services, because I think that would be controversial. But some engagement in our nation, and in building our nation, is important."

    I think David might be a bit busy to talk to the media for a few days.
    They'll go with the money / levelling up line.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,294
    AlsoLei said:

    Essentially what this actually is, is forced volunteering in the community for every 18 year old. Surely they should be paid minimum wage?

    Yes, obviously - even prisoners get paid for any work they do.

    Arguably, they should be paid more than minimum wage to cover them for the likely loss of earnings resulting from participation in this compulsory scheme.

    For instance, most employers would rather have someone who's available every weekend, rather than only 3/4 of them. 18 year olds will therefore be disadvantaged in the job market, and should expect to receive compensation for that.
    It will certainly sting for people to lose out on paid employment for this volunteering opportunity.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,047
    When a disaster happens, people often want to help, but the best way for most people to help is to work an hour of overtime at their regular job and donate that money to the experts. That's because people are good at their jobs, but not good at randomly helping in a disaster.

    18 year olds doing 25 days of volunteering are not going to be the most effective volunteers and won't learn very much. Even those doing a year in the armed forces aren't going to be very good soldiers until the end of their year. If society needs all these things to be done, tax people and spend the money on professionals.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited May 25
    Scott_xP said:

    @SeanJonesKC

    Tory offer to young people:

    1. We’ll take away your smartphones;
    2. Compulsory maths exams until 18; and
    3. “Compulsory voluntary” service thereafter.

    They just need:

    4. You’re not going out looking like that; and
    5. Don’t use that tone of voice with me.

    Point of order

    The HOC select committee have recommended that you have to be 16 to own a smartphone

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmm0zgx9zno
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited May 25
    If they had any sense they would run this shit past a panel of PB posters....within 30 mins we have already tuned this steaming pile of poo into perhaps an interesting policy idea and even got the tag line for it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    Apparently Tory MPs are not thrilled by this announcement
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    I don't in any way think people need to be parents to be political leaders, but I wonder if Rishi contemplated running this by his kids before announcing it just as a sense check.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,294
    Will be interesting to see how Tory MPs react to this. It must be the first some of them have heard of the idea. You'd imagine at least a few will have reservations
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701

    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    22m
    As for the military bit of the national service plan, this is what Sunak’s official spokesman said about military national service in January: “The British military has a proud tradition of being a voluntary force. There are no plans to change that.”

    https://x.com/Peston/status/1794489939742052542
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    Scott_xP said:

    @Peston
    If you wondered where Rishi Sunak got the idea for compulsory national service, it was proposed last August by the right think tank Onward. Sunak’s deputy chief of staff Will Tanner was a founder and initial director of Onward

    Onward is not a right wing think tank.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited May 25

    I suspect many pensioners think that National Service is a jolly good idea for other people's grandchildren.
    But not their own.

    It will be announced that the service could include volunteering to visit your own grandparents.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701
    rkrkrk said:

    Will be interesting to see how Tory MPs react to this. It must be the first some of them have heard of the idea. You'd imagine at least a few will have reservations

    They are all standing down apart from the two dozen who think they will be leader in September.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513
    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    And if it's only popular with people who are going to vote for you anyway?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    Thankfully this policy will never actually happen. I never bothered doing D of E at school and I have no regrets about that. Going to have to think about what I do on 4 July.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,988
    It’s no good changing your name from Nicola Sturgeon, people will still recognise you.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Eabhal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    For the last time, it is NOT military service, it is mostly people volunteering every week for a year.

    One weekend a month in the voluntary sector
    The national service sector.
    The Big Unpaid Society.

    Maybe Dave is making a comeback after all.
    Difficult, but it might be possible for Labour to turn this into a debate about slavery and the gig economy.

    "Compulsory volunteering" might be Sunak's death tax.
    I think we'll be spoilt for choice.

    I honestly didn't think the campaign had gotten off to that bad a start, most of the talk seemed to be focused on silly memes and minor flubs, not great but not a big deal either.

    But this idea, in this way? Death wish territory.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Eabhal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    kle4 said:

    For the last time, it is NOT military service, it is mostly people volunteering every week for a year.

    One weekend a month in the voluntary sector
    The national service sector.
    The Big Unpaid Society.

    Maybe Dave is making a comeback after all.
    Difficult, but it might be possible for Labour to turn this into a debate about slavery and the gig economy.

    "Compulsory volunteering" might be Sunak's death tax.
    Sunak is talking to some of the voters still in the Conservatives camp and Reform voters. Does he lose as many remaining one-nation Tories as he gains the swivel -eyed from Reform? I don't think this brings back many Con to Labour switchers.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,248
    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Rishi Sunak's announcement committing CUP to reviving National Service for Uker youth, is pretty clearly aimed at older voters.

    However, note that original cold-war National Service was fazed out starting in 1957 and ended in 1963, meaning that an 18-year old back in that year, born circa 1945, would be turning 78 this year.

    So those who actually conscripted are at the higher end of the geezer-meter.

    On the other hand, what's potential that youth turnout on 4th of July will be boosted, by Tory promise - or rather threat in their case - to re-establish National Service? A group notoriously difficult to turn out UNLESS you give them a big incentive.

    Perhaps time to recycle in UK the old anti-war US slogan: "Draft beer, not students".
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366

    On the face of it and certainly on here it seems a very controversial policy

    It will be interesting how it is received in the populace generally and how Sunak attempts to sell it

    Like a bag of sick. Twin A is currently doing her gold DofE sailing with random group of 7 others who she doesn’t know. This is the current topic of conversation and I can safely say no child or parent is voting Tory.

    Now it’s perfectly possible that none of them ever would but that’s a potential 20 votes lost…
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    kle4 said:

    I wonder

    I suspect many pensioners think that National Service is a jolly good idea for other people's grandchildren.
    But not their own.

    It will be announced that the service could include volunteering to visit your own grandparents.
    Our grandchildren cannot wait to visit us and of course they abide by the rule that 'what goes on in Grandma's house stays in Grandma's house'
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    @peterdonaghy

    Typical community sentences for criminal damage, theft or assault are 40-300 hours, so the proposed "volunteering" scheme would be about the middle of the range for those offences
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    Maybe. Points for boldness I guess. But Theresa May couldn't get away with a bold policy to tackle an urgent need when she looked like she was 20 points ahead, there's no way Rishi can when 20 points behind.

    25 points or more by Tuesday.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    kle4 said:

    I suspect many pensioners think that National Service is a jolly good idea for other people's grandchildren.
    But not their own.

    It will be announced that the service could include volunteering to visit your own grandparents.
    I’m glad that I took the 25-1 odds bet365 were offering for less than 50 Tory seats - today that looks like a very sane bet
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    And if it's only popular with people who are going to vote for you anyway?
    I strongly suspect this is the kind of policy that will get young people off their arses and actually voting against them.

    Turnout in the 18-34 group in 2019 was around 53%, vs ~78% for the retired.

    This is the sort of policy that could generate enough viral anger on a youth orientated platform like TikTok to actually get the yoof off their arses and into voting booths.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    kle4 said:

    I wonder

    I suspect many pensioners think that National Service is a jolly good idea for other people's grandchildren.
    But not their own.

    It will be announced that the service could include volunteering to visit your own grandparents.
    Our grandchildren cannot wait to visit us and of course they abide by the rule that 'what goes on in Grandma's house stays in Grandma's house'
    So, you're fair game then?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,248
    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    dixiedean said:

    See. This is the other thing that gets me.
    Why would you choose to work in a SENDMH school when you can get better pay, and much less aggro in a call centre, nail bar or building site?
    And don't mention holidays. Pay for TA's, unlike teachers is pro rata'd.
    They do it because they care.
    They want to be of service, and make a difference.
    And this is the thanks they get.
    I don't like using the F word.
    But I have no other.

    There are a lot of public sector jobs like that. Staff that work long hours at the EA wading through thigh-deep shitwater because a breakwater in disrepair broke and are paid worse than an assistant manager at Aldi. Engineers at RAL who (until recently at least) were paid 50% the national average for their role to keep vital UK infrastructure online. Coppers and firefighters too obviously. Very few do it for the pension or the perks. It's because they see their job as mattering and don't want to leave even though the rewards suck and the ministers are morons. I'm extremely lucky in that I got a regrading that put my salary just about where it should be, but there are roles that are just criminally undergraded or unrecognised.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently Tory MPs are not thrilled by this announcement

    "I think I will take Saturday off to reboot my campaign and to avoid any gaffes. Saturday will be my first gaffe free day since I announced the election. What could possibly go wrong?"
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    edited May 25
    kle4 said:

    On Bet365

    Tories 49 seats or less at 12/1
    50-99 seats at 11/4
    100-149 at 15/8
    150-199 at 9/4

    The rest are not worth looking at.

    Before I was thinking between 150 and 175.

    Now I'm thinking 100-125. 150 now their best case scenario.

    Tories 49 seats of less was 25-1,yesterday

    And I’m tempted to top up at 12-1 after todays “announcement”.

    I’m starting to think that Rishi hates the Tory party and wants it to be destroyed by this election

    Question is - when is May’s death tax going to be re-announced
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,248
    edited May 25
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    Maybe. Points for boldness I guess. But Theresa May couldn't get away with a bold policy to tackle an urgent need when she looked like she was 20 points ahead, there's no way Rishi can when 20 points behind.

    25 points or more by Tuesday.
    When Putin starts menacing Moldova, the Baltic states, and Finland, then it won't seem so mad. At all

    Honestly, PB is just a bunch of stupid flailing midwit geeks who can't extrapolate more than 3 months ahead, with some honourable exceptions, who I shall not name to spare their proud blushes
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Only 18 year olds can keep the Chinese from Cleethorpes.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Nukes. We have nukes.

    How is the meat grinder working out for Ukraine and Russia?

    When we're already under replacement levels, is sending our nation's youth off to die in some foreign war really a good idea?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    Scott_xP said:

    @darrenmccaffrey

    On a purely ideological level, is national service a very conservative idea? 🤷🏻‍♂️

    Isn’t it essentially the state telling adults how they must spend their free time?

    Interesting discussion

    He's an authoritarian conspiracy theorist. Play chess! Don't smoke! Go to war! FIFTEEN MINUTE CITIES! SEVEN BINS!

    I'm sure you're bored with me saying this, but the Conservatives have forgotten how to be conservative.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    I gather that the National Service policy was rigorously tested using a focus group comprising Mark Francois.
  • Those saying the policy will help with Ukraine don't seem to understand that at most it's 20,000 volunteers for one year.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,248
    edited May 25
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Nukes. We have nukes.

    How is the meat grinder working out for Ukraine and Russia?

    When we're already under replacement levels, is sending our nation's youth off to die in some foreign war really a good idea?
    It won't be a foreign war, you ridiculous cretin

    Is Ukraine "a foreign war"? Maybe to you, because you are dim. I've been there, it is part of Europe, and they are at war, and it is absolutely not foreign

    Poland understands this; we will too, in time
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited May 25
    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Then it will get dropped before the manifesto gets launched.

    I think I'll give it a miss.

    I would argue I'm not one given to frequent hysteria, but I've not been this flabbergasted by a political idea and presentation in years, it's inconcievably bad, the MPs will be mutinous, and the more I ponder it the worse it seems to me.

    What the heck was he thinking? - that will be the title of his biography.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    On Bet365

    Tories 49 seats or less at 12/1
    50-99 seats at 11/4
    100-149 at 15/8
    150-199 at 9/4

    The rest are not worth looking at.

    Before I was thinking between 150 and 175.

    Now I'm thinking 100-125. 150 now their best case scenario.

    Tories 49 seats of less was 25-1,yesterday

    And I’m tempted to top up at 12-1 after todays “announcement”.

    I’m starting to think that Rishi hates the Tory party and wants it to be destroyed by this election

    Question is - when is May’s death tax going to be re-announced
    Betfair currently have £33 available at 16/1 for 0-49 Con seats...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    You normally leave the real big hitter policy announcements for the manifesto launch....I can't wait.....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    I thought it was a shit idea, indeed i thought it might be a spoof, but Leon's enthusiastic embrace has convinced me.

    It is a shit idea.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    and your plan is to give an SA80 to a Vegan, Hamas-supporting trans cyclist and airdrop them over the South China Sea/Estonia?

    What has been shown not to work in Ukraine is mass infantry assaults against artillery and minefields, which is pretty much all a national service bod would be capable of.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Who gets to try and defend it on the Sunday shows, before it gets dropped?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    kyf_100 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    And if it's only popular with people who are going to vote for you anyway?
    I strongly suspect this is the kind of policy that will get young people off their arses and actually voting against them.

    Turnout in the 18-34 group in 2019 was around 53%, vs ~78% for the retired.

    This is the sort of policy that could generate enough viral anger on a youth orientated platform like TikTok to actually get the yoof off their arses and into voting booths.
    "Don't want to be conscripted? Vote!"

    If that doesn't work, what would?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited May 25
    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    It is Leon, but first as a political leader you engage with the voting public. You explain how dangerous Putin is and you develop a conversation to explain that in order to secure a free United Kingdom for our children and our children's children we need to look at certain difficult options.

    You don't ponder "how do we attract crazy ape- bonkers Reform voters? I know send their sons, daughters and grandchildren to Deepcut for 12 months. That should do the trick".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,248

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    I dunno, off the top of my head, a decent-sized, trained professional army and navy who are supplied with modern and well resourced equipment and training?

    We don't have the numbers. We are struggling to man the army and navy we have, and they are comparatively tiny

    Either we raise the pay for soldiering to a level which requires income tax to double, or we take the easier route, and require national service of all 18 year olds. Which one will be more popular with tax payers, in the end?

    EXTRAPOLATE, you dimwits
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Who gets to try and defend it on the Sunday shows, before it gets dropped?
    Only one man in government has the balls to even attempt it - Michael Gove.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    I wonder how Sir Beer of Korma reacted to this announcement?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    It is Leon, but first as a political leader you engage with the voting public. You explain how dangerous Putin is and you develop a conversation to explain that in order to secure a free United Kingdom for our children and our children's children we need to look at certain difficult options.

    You don't ponder "how do we attract crazy ape- bonkers Reform voters? I know send their sons, daughters and grandchildren to Deepcut for 12 months. That should do the trick".
    But that’s not the policy. It’s compulsory community service with an exception for people who join the military.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,047
    War is changing. Look at Ukraine and how first person view drones have completely revolutionised the battlefield. Fighting a war is becoming more like a videogame. You need the right people to fight that sort of war. You need people with the right skills, not children who spend all their time on Xbox... Hold on, maybe this is a fantastically good idea!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    edited May 25
    £2.5bn, couldn't that go on like, tuition fees
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701

    Tom Newton Dunn
    @tnewtondunn
    National Service is a very interesting idea, but I’m seriously struggling to understand the Tory costings for it. They nowhere near add up.

    There are 717,000 18 year olds in the UK. Even if only half of them sign up for military service instead of opting for volunteering, the £2.5bn a year the Tories have allocated for it is a per capita spending of £6,000 a head - and that’s to train, equip, house and presumably pay all of them an annual salary.

    Then there is the lost tax revenue to HMT of taking 350,000 out of the workplace (albeit for a good cause and where they learn new skills).

    I can’t see how it won’t end up constituting 10 times that, ie £25bn a year. Unless I’ve missed something quite big here?

  • Tom Newton Dunn
    @tnewtondunn
    National Service is a very interesting idea, but I’m seriously struggling to understand the Tory costings for it. They nowhere near add up.

    There are 717,000 18 year olds in the UK. Even if only half of them sign up for military service instead of opting for volunteering, the £2.5bn a year the Tories have allocated for it is a per capita spending of £6,000 a head - and that’s to train, equip, house and presumably pay all of them an annual salary.

    Then there is the lost tax revenue to HMT of taking 350,000 out of the workplace (albeit for a good cause and where they learn new skills).

    I can’t see how it won’t end up constituting 10 times that, ie £25bn a year. Unless I’ve missed something quite big here?

    As I said above, it's not 717,000 military, it is at most 20,000. The rest are volunteering for work but without pay.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701
    May must be laughing her face off tonight.

    Makes her campaign look like New Labour 1997.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    and your plan is to give an SA80 to a Vegan, Hamas-supporting trans cyclist and airdrop them over the South China Sea/Estonia?

    What has been shown not to work in Ukraine is mass infantry assaults against artillery and minefields, which is pretty much all a national service bod would be capable of.
    Ah but you're discussing it with noted military historian and expert Leon, master of manoeuvre, a tactician on par with Rommel, a strategist on par with Napoleon, a logistician greater than Zhukhov and truly madder than all three.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    Oh, Northern Ireland is not in scope
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited May 25
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Who gets to try and defend it on the Sunday shows, before it gets dropped?
    Only one man in government has the balls to even attempt it - Michael Gove.
    Given how often Govey seems to spend time in nightclubs with the youngsters, I am sure he is well aware how such a policy would go down with them.
  • War is changing. Look at Ukraine and how first person view drones have completely revolutionised the battlefield. Fighting a war is becoming more like a videogame. You need the right people to fight that sort of war. You need people with the right skills, not children who spend all their time on Xbox... Hold on, maybe this is a fantastically good idea!

    Rishi's next job could be in cyber, he just doesn't know it yet
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,047
    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Who gets to try and defend it on the Sunday shows, before it gets dropped?
    Who gets to defend it? Presumably an 18-year old conscript.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174


    Tom Newton Dunn
    @tnewtondunn
    National Service is a very interesting idea, but I’m seriously struggling to understand the Tory costings for it. They nowhere near add up.

    There are 717,000 18 year olds in the UK. Even if only half of them sign up for military service instead of opting for volunteering, the £2.5bn a year the Tories have allocated for it is a per capita spending of £6,000 a head - and that’s to train, equip, house and presumably pay all of them an annual salary.

    Then there is the lost tax revenue to HMT of taking 350,000 out of the workplace (albeit for a good cause and where they learn new skills).

    I can’t see how it won’t end up constituting 10 times that, ie £25bn a year. Unless I’ve missed something quite big here?

    Presumably the assumption is that hardly anyone will actually do it.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Nukes. We have nukes.

    How is the meat grinder working out for Ukraine and Russia?

    When we're already under replacement levels, is sending our nation's youth off to die in some foreign war really a good idea?
    It won't be a foreign war, you ridiculous cretin

    Is Ukraine "a foreign war"? Maybe to you, because you are dim. I've been there, it is part of Europe, and they are at war, and it is absolutely not foreign

    Poland understands this; we will too, in time
    You're the one who keeps banging on about immigrants. Sending an entire generation off to die more or less ensures the British way of life gets wiped out within a generation anyway.

    So the best bet for Britain is to pull up the drawbridge, and promise mutually assured destruction to anyone threatening our country.

    Or do you reckon British youth are really going to be prepared to pick up a rifle and fight and die if Putin pushes on into Slovakia?

    Britain won't go to war until it's existential. And by the time it's existential for us, it's time to roll out Trident, not a bunch of spotty faced teens with army surplus SA-80s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Last thought - couldn't they just make those who arrive on boats do a year of national service 'volunteering', and if they don't they get deported?

    It's a bit slave labour like, but it seems just as likely to appeal to Reform without upsetting any parents or grandparents among Reform voters.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    I dunno, off the top of my head, a decent-sized, trained professional army and navy who are supplied with modern and well resourced equipment and training?

    We don't have the numbers. We are struggling to man the army and navy we have, and they are comparatively tiny

    Either we raise the pay for soldiering to a level which requires income tax to double, or we take the easier route, and require national service of all 18 year olds. Which one will be more popular with tax payers, in the end?

    EXTRAPOLATE, you dimwits
    'Sorry, sweet child of mine. I know you have career plans, and military service is dangerous, but just think how much tax I will be saving.'
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    Nukes. We have nukes.

    How is the meat grinder working out for Ukraine and Russia?

    When we're already under replacement levels, is sending our nation's youth off to die in some foreign war really a good idea?
    It won't be a foreign war, you ridiculous cretin

    Is Ukraine "a foreign war"? Maybe to you, because you are dim. I've been there, it is part of Europe, and they are at war, and it is absolutely not foreign

    Poland understands this; we will too, in time
    You obviously feel very strongly about this.
    So why aren't you in the country volunteering?
    You could set an example by forcing your daughters into the military and refusing to leave Blighty till we are all safe.
    So why haven't you?
    Just curious.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    Which of Braverman, Patel, and Badenoch is going to be first to comment on their party's new flagship policy?

    And, how soon before the Tory leadership contest kicks off in earnest?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071

    War is changing. Look at Ukraine and how first person view drones have completely revolutionised the battlefield. Fighting a war is becoming more like a videogame. You need the right people to fight that sort of war. You need people with the right skills, not children who spend all their time on Xbox... Hold on, maybe this is a fantastically good idea!

    Rishi's next job could be in cyber, he just doesn't know it yet
    He knows.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    I wonder how Sir Beer of Korma reacted to this announcement?

    To paraphrase "Why the fuck are you spending 2.5bn on a white paper when you can't afford to keep people in prison for their whole sentence"?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,701

    £2.5bn, couldn't that go on like, tuition fees

    No. Because the 85 year olds this policy is aimed at do not think anyone should be going to university when the 'university of life' was 'good enough for me'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,978
    edited May 25
    OnboardG1 said:

    I wonder how Sir Beer of Korma reacted to this announcement?

    To paraphrase "Why the fuck are you spending 2.5bn on a white paper when you can't afford to keep people in prison for their whole sentence"?
    I was thinking more he probably needed a change of pants after pissing himself laughing.

    I mean he must have thought at the very least the Tories have hired some half decent people to run the campaign and come up with policy, I might have a few tricky days over the campaign as I have to react to half decent ideas from them and I have to try and work out how to defend myself against why we aren't doing that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    I dunno, off the top of my head, a decent-sized, trained professional army and navy who are supplied with modern and well resourced equipment and training?

    We don't have the numbers. We are struggling to man the army and navy we have, and they are comparatively tiny

    Either we raise the pay for soldiering to a level which requires income tax to double, or we take the easier route, and require national service of all 18 year olds. Which one will be more popular with tax payers, in the end?

    EXTRAPOLATE, you dimwits
    Are you signing up Capt. Mainwaring?
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    Scott_xP said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow is going to be Rishi pissily whinging that people don't understand this great policy isn't it?

    Who gets to try and defend it on the Sunday shows, before it gets dropped?
    Who gets to defend it? Presumably an 18-year old conscript.
    Only if they don't choose to visit their grandparents.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,047
    AlsoLei said:

    Which of Braverman, Patel, and Badenoch is going to be first to comment on their party's new flagship policy?

    And, how soon before the Tory leadership contest kicks off in earnest?

    The libertarian Badenoch can't possibly support this (if she wishes to be intellectually coherent).
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    Leon said:

    We don't have the numbers. We are struggling to man the army and navy we have, and they are comparatively tiny

    This is true, but it not (just) pay.

    My nephew is in the army. It's all he ever wanted to do. They have been paying him since he was 15. They paid him as he finished school. They paid him through university. He did his stint at Sandhurst and was commissioned. Made it to Afghanistan in time to fly home again. Now that he is a full Captain, after all those years of training, he is leaving as soon as possible because the army are "wasting his talents"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,248

    Leon said:

    It will take the intellectual low-watt cohort of PBers a year or two to catch up with this, but a much more militarised society is coming, like it or not

    Putin will get an Armistice in Ukraine, because we are not willing to send NATO troops to defend Kharkhiv, and neither side can "win". Putin and Xi wll then co-ordinate. Xi will go for Taiwan and Putin will probe the eastern flanks of NATO and the UK will be obliged to up its defence spending by billions and it will have to forcibly recruit young men and women, if they are not willing to serve voluntarily

    = National Service, one way or another

    Is it a good election winning policy? Probably not. Is it a serious pointer to the probable future? Yep

    It is Leon, but first as a political leader you engage with the voting public. You explain how dangerous Putin is and you develop a conversation to explain that in order to secure a free United Kingdom for our children and our children's children we need to look at certain difficult options.

    You don't ponder "how do we attract crazy ape- bonkers Reform voters? I know send their sons, daughters and grandchildren to Deepcut for 12 months. That should do the trick".
    I agree, it's very probably a stupid policy to announce five days into a desperately bad election campaign

    I'm not arguing that. My point is this: something LIKE this coming for the UK sooner rather than later? Absent black swans I am not allowed to talk about, we need tens of thousands of extra soldiers ready to fight. Putin really means this war against the West and so does Xi, they want to de-dollarise the world economy, they want to destabilise the West in every way possible (see Woke and Boeing) they are trying to destroy us, using our own technology and liberality, it is obvious

    We are at war. War needs fighters

    Also, I am not sure it is THAT bad an electoral strategy for Sunak. Polls show the Tories are headed for epochal and maybe existential defeat. What has he got to lose? Nothing. Why not tell the people the truth: bad shit is coming
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Ratters said:

    Trying to be objective on the political implications of the policy or a moment:

    - On one hand, it will be popular with the Boomer Tory/Reform voting contingent. I can imagine an uptick in Tory support from this contingent, which is their core vote now.

    - On the other hand, young people (including Millennials in their 30s and 40s with kids under 18) will hate this policy. It is stupid and the compulsory nature could drive higher turnout against the Tories in a tactical voting kind of way: hold your nose and vote for who is the best opposition in your area.

    I'm not sure which effect will be greater. But it comes across as desperate in any case.

    If it's only unpopular with people who'd never vote for you in the first place, it's arguably good politics.
    Many of those millennials do, or did, vote Tory before. I have. Writing them off as forever lost, and making that a self fulfulling prophecy, is the opposite of good politics.
    It's also an amazing way to signal "We don't care about anyone young enough to have grandkids affected by the policy". Utter idiocy. I can see it being popular with a certain type of baby boomer, like the various red-faced sunlounger posters on here, but in the country? Can't see it going down as well as he thinks. If it was part of a coherent narrative it might work. But what narrative is there other than "I'm bloody desperate and I have no sane ideas?".
    How else do we defend the nation against Putin and Xi?
    I dunno, off the top of my head, a decent-sized, trained professional army and navy who are supplied with modern and well resourced equipment and training?

    We don't have the numbers. We are struggling to man the army and navy we have, and they are comparatively tiny

    Either we raise the pay for soldiering to a level which requires income tax to double, or we take the easier route, and require national service of all 18 year olds. Which one will be more popular with tax payers, in the end?

    EXTRAPOLATE, you dimwits
    Are you signing up Capt. Mainwaring?
    That is extremely unfair Mr Mexican. You're slandering a brave, patriotic and decent fellow who is just trying to do the best to help his country in its hour of need. And he's a rather sympathetic bank manager too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    This whole affair is giving me flashbacks to my last playthrough of Suzerain, where despite my valiant efforts to modernise the economy of my ficitonal nation and bring peace to the region, I had botched education policy and caused debt to spiral on failed infrastructure projects, and my own spouse told me I shouldn't run for re-election because I was so crap at being President.

    It will probably hurt Rishi more when Akshata says the same thing to him.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    kle4 said:

    This whole affair is giving me flashbacks to my last playthrough of Suzerain, where despite my valiant efforts to modernise the economy of my ficitonal nation and bring peace to the region, I had botched education policy and caused debt to spiral on failed infrastructure projects, and my own spouse told me I shouldn't run for re-election because I was so crap at being President.

    It will probably hurt Rishi more when Akshata says the same thing to him.

    +1 for this.

    The new DLC is also excellent.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    kle4 said:

    This whole affair is giving me flashbacks to my last playthrough of Suzerain, where despite my valiant efforts to modernise the economy of my ficitonal nation and bring peace to the region, I had botched education policy and caused debt to spiral on failed infrastructure projects, and my own spouse told me I shouldn't run for re-election because I was so crap at being President.

    It will probably hurt Rishi more when Akshata says the same thing to him.

    I liberalized the country, joined NATO, crushed Akshata's version of Theresa May in the primaries and then announced a shock retirement to live in the pseudo-US as a tech millionaire. I think I got the good ending?
  • Apparently the Commission that Rishi will setup for this policy will examine non-criminal sanctions for those that refuse to volunteer.

    So basically, it's a tax on being young.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    Not at all tetchy.

    Sunak allies insist the national service plan has been worked on for weeks, is “extremely detailed” and is only one of a raft of proposals that underpin the election slogan “bold action”. One said:

    “This has not been put together in a rush, rather been considerable work over a long period of time”.

    Another said: “policy work on this is extremely detailed. Three weeks ago the short was 35 pages.”


    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1794499476041720202
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    Someone should point out to Rishi that 18 year olds did their national service when they spent a year in lockdown as 14 and 15 years old.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Have often remarked what a lucky general SKS is.
    Grand Final day and his opponent appears to have had a nervous breakdown.
    Peace and blessings to Rishi.
This discussion has been closed.