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Coming to a Lib Dem bar chart near you – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited June 8 in General
Coming to a Lib Dem bar chart near you – politicalbetting.com

While voters are known to exaggerate when it comes to hypotheticals, it is striking to see such a clear effect 1) on changed boundaries and 2) before campaign messaging has kicked in. (Data from the first two waves of our @JLPartnersPolls / @RestIsPolitics tracker.)

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  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Man City playing the long game and doing their best to ensure Ten Hag isn't sacked.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    He's just generally invisible. The Post Office stuff is probably a plus for him.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Omnium said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    He's just generally invisible. The Post Office stuff is probably a plus for him.
    It really isn't.

    Remember, my first post in the 2019 campaign was how toxic Jo Swinson was on the doorsteps.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Farooq said:

    Does anyone not a supporter of either club actually give a shit who wins this?

    I thought I didn't, til United scored. Then I found myself thinking "good". Bad news for United fans is that now means City will come back and win. Sorry about that.

    Still the Alien v Predator Cup Final...
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    fpt for @Omnium

    "I think [Musk is] really great. No caveats on that."

    ***
    I agree. He is touched with greatness. Lex Fridman has called him "the great maker of our time" and that rings true

    He is one of the top ten engineers in history? He's right up there with Tesla, Brunel and Edison etc

    This doesn't stop him being a pain in the arse quite a lot of the time; indeed the two might well be linked
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,193
    Farooq said:

    Does anyone not a supporter of either club actually give a shit who wins this?

    I thought I didn't, til United scored. Then I found myself thinking "good". Bad news for United fans is that now means City will come back and win. Sorry about that.

    As a Saint Mirren fan, I'm backing City. The bantz with my Man U-supporting friends if they don't qualify for Europe (St Mirren have!) would be just too good.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Farooq said:

    Reposting, not because I think it's important but because I spent a fucking hour typing it so I want Leon to read it.

    TL;DR: you're right about the criticisms being misdirected, you're wrong that it's a narrow phenomenon, and I think your reason for asking is not wholly above board.

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    WHY do people hate Elon Musk so much? It's quite insane, the level of anger and loathing he generates

    I am not a Musk fanboi, I think he is often an awkward twit and is socially inept, and prone to grandiosity and confabulation. But he is also a highly intelligent man with a dash of inventive genius, one of the "great men" of our time. Yet people are so filled with hatred for him they try and argue he is "dim". It is profoundly odd

    Because some people believe his words and actions mark him out as a fascist. That's a perfectly reasonable reason to despise someone, and not in the least bit odd.

    The only question is, are they wrong or right about that?
    I don't think he is remotely close to being a fascist, but anyway that is irrelevant to my point. A lot of the anger directed at Musk is eerily personal and visceral, and not connected to his politics. People hate him in some unhinged way, to the extent they will seriously argue he is a moron barely able to fry an egg

    In short: he triggers a certain type of person, generally less intelligent people but not always - and I can't yet work out why
    Look, some of the criticism is obviously misdirected, but I'm sure it's for the reasons I'm saying. He's intervening politically in ways that make people angry and afraid, they look at his statements and decide that he really is as terrible as all that.

    Leaving aside whether they're right, what happens next? Well, when someone is as contemptible as that, any defence of them is seen as whitewashing the important thing about him: that he's dangerous. Someone can point to an achievement, and they don't feel able to acknowledge that because it risks someone getting the wrong idea that he's not all bad.
    Few people would want to find merit in, say, Hitler's paintings because they're afraid of how such an endorsement seems.

    This is, I think, what you already suspect. You mention Trump, and Brexit. But the same phenomenon is visible elsewhere. See also Corbyn, Starmer, Sunak, AI, Scottish independence, Michael Gove, the monarchy, Sinn Fein, whatever. People have decided that THIS person or thing is bad news, and they shut themselves off from anything positive.

    Also I don't think you're immune either. I think we are all prone to it. Also, I think you already understand much of this and you like to push buttons, knowing that people will react this way. I think you know much of this already, but you want people to react, so you've wrapped up praise of Musk into a question that presupposes the unreasonableness of hating him. You're asking people to come and play on your home turf. Well, enjoy it if that's what you're doing. It's good sport if you're into it. But don't lose sight of the reality of some of the criticism levelled against Musk. He's not a harmlessly awkward nerd. It's darker than that. How dark, I'm not sure, I don't enjoy spending much time fishing around in that particular drain. So I'll leave it up to others to make a final judgement on his character.
    Articulate as tbis is, and full of interesting observations, I disagree with your basic premise. I do NOT believe Musk's politics are the sole reason for the way he triggers people, it might not even be the main reason. Something else about him drives people nuts, and I genuinely don't know what it is, and I genuinely would like to know

    Tho yes of course I often intend to make interestingly provocative comments on PB, isn;'t that the reason we come here? I don't come here to make boring statements of obvious fact, or read people politely agreeing on everything
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Omnium said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    He's just generally invisible. The Post Office stuff is probably a plus for him.
    It really isn't.

    Remember, my first post in the 2019 campaign was how toxic Jo Swinson was on the doorsteps.
    Might be the Cons hold on to '97 level of seats because the LDs don't get nearly as many. Although Labour go stratospheric.
  • Options
    DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 503
    Health warning: I've an atrocious record with by-election betting.

    Nevertheless I think Corbyn is far too short here. He shouldn't even be odds on, I don't think. So I've laid small at an average price slightly under 1.5 and will add more if the odds drift to 1.3 region.

    My reasoning is essentially the demographics of Islington (available at ONS website https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/censusareachanges/E09000019/ ) mean his personal vote isn't going to be anything like as large as politico types think. Basically it's just too transient for that. About a quarter don't identify as British in any sense and plenty more while identifying as British are naturalised (presumably relatively recently) and thus much less likely to have "grown up with" Corbyn and give a stuff about him personally as a local personality. There also isn't a significant enough Muslim population for him to use Gaza as an issue - about 12%.

    And this election is all going to be about getting Labour in and the Tories out.

    The obvious counter argument to my theory is that the transients will be voting less anyway. And as I said at beginning of this post while I'm a successful political better I am atrocious at by-elections. I feel good about this bet though.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,627

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    What reports are these? Are you canvassing?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291

    Man City playing the long game and doing their best to ensure Ten Hag isn't sacked.

    Are we sure they aren't still pissed from celebrating the EPL win?
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,311

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    What reports are these? Are you canvassing?
    Let's stop calling a spade a garden implement.

    @MarqueeMark is a Conservative activist facing a Lib Dem challenge in his seat. - he's not going to be objective about this. It's probably on the script when he meets a dithering ex-Conservative so I wouldn't put too much significance into it - if it wasn't this it would be the old "you know when it comes to it they'll back Labour" schtick.

    His purpose is to dissuade uncertain Conservatives from backing the LDs and bring them back into the fold.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    What reports are these? Are you canvassing?
    We are having a mass delivery (was in the pipleline, so has to be done before expenses kick in), but there are still plenty of interactions when you are out and about.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    I am definitely voting tactically. I wouldn't be voting for this Tory government otherwise.

    Oh, is that not what you meant?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    The ultimate shitz'n'gigglez result would be Labour one short of a majority; and Corbyn wins his seat....
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    A BBC Wales journalist liked a tweet describing reports of rape perpetrated on Oct 7 as “nonsense”, it has emerged.

    Shazia Ali liked a post - published on Oct 8 - that said: “Nobody raped anyone. Stop this nonsense.”

    The news reporter also “liked” a series of other tweets that appeared to justify Hamas’ atrocities on Oct 7, including a post from a different account that said: “You can’t expect a beaten and caged lion to purr when he finally breaks free.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/25/bbc-reporter-hamas-liked-tweet-rape-impartial-breach-wales/

    Waiting for the excuse that wasn't really liking them, just bookmarking them for future reference.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
    Thanks. I assume she'll probably stand whenever happens, the only question is whether it's as the official Lab candidate or an ind.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Omnium said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    He's just generally invisible. The Post Office stuff is probably a plus for him.
    It really isn't.

    Remember, my first post in the 2019 campaign was how toxic Jo Swinson was on the doorsteps.
    So are you forecasting a Tory hold in the South Hams?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    edited May 25
    stodge said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    What reports are these? Are you canvassing?
    Let's stop calling a spade a garden implement.

    @MarqueeMark is a Conservative activist facing a Lib Dem challenge in his seat. - he's not going to be objective about this. It's probably on the script when he meets a dithering ex-Conservative so I wouldn't put too much significance into it - if it wasn't this it would be the old "you know when it comes to it they'll back Labour" schtick.

    His purpose is to dissuade uncertain Conservatives from backing the LDs and bring them back into the fold.
    I'm not sure I am facing a LibDem challenge. Labour was second in 2017. The LibDems were second in 2019, but they over-performed because they had Dr Sarah Wollaston who had a significant personal vote, despite flip-flopping into various parties. (Plus the LibDems spent a shitload of money in her seat - money that won't be targeted here this time.)

    National polling says Labour is the challenger.

    I call it how I see it. My track record on pb.com is making people some serious money betting against the LibDems in the SW.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,478

    Omnium said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    He's just generally invisible. The Post Office stuff is probably a plus for him.
    It really isn't.

    Remember, my first post in the 2019 campaign was how toxic Jo Swinson was on the doorsteps.
    Might be the Cons hold on to '97 level of seats because the LDs don't get nearly as many. Although Labour go stratospheric.
    This is why I think the Labour to win 46-48% of vote share at 8/1 is a better bet than any of the Con seat bands at the moment. Too many chances for the Conservatives to actually get a decent number of seats with a number of scenarios, such as returning reform voters or the underperformance of the Lib Dems.

    If you baxter the polls at the moment, the Tories will struggle to get 50 seats. But I reckon they could get anywhere from 40-160ish seats, meaning you'd probably want some money on at least three bands.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639

    The ultimate shitz'n'gigglez result would be Labour one short of a majority; and Corbyn wins his seat....

    He spent 13 years voting against a Labour government. Why should we expect anything different?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    Did Einstein not say something about time being different in different places? Did he mention Wembley?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Health warning: I've an atrocious record with by-election betting.

    Nevertheless I think Corbyn is far too short here. He shouldn't even be odds on, I don't think. So I've laid small at an average price slightly under 1.5 and will add more if the odds drift to 1.3 region.

    My reasoning is essentially the demographics of Islington (available at ONS website https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/censusareachanges/E09000019/ ) mean his personal vote isn't going to be anything like as large as politico types think. Basically it's just too transient for that. About a quarter don't identify as British in any sense and plenty more while identifying as British are naturalised (presumably relatively recently) and thus much less likely to have "grown up with" Corbyn and give a stuff about him personally as a local personality. There also isn't a significant enough Muslim population for him to use Gaza as an issue - about 12%.

    And this election is all going to be about getting Labour in and the Tories out.

    The obvious counter argument to my theory is that the transients will be voting less anyway. And as I said at beginning of this post while I'm a successful political better I am atrocious at by-elections. I feel good about this bet though.

    I think too that "personal votes" are relatively modest in size. The majority vote for Party not person.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758

    Man City playing the long game and doing their best to ensure Ten Hag isn't sacked.

    Are we sure they aren't still pissed from celebrating the EPL win?
    It's a repeat of 2017. Chelsea were so obviously still hungover when Arsenal beat them.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Just seen this message from Richard Holden MP to Tory supporters.

    "I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
    Now let’s win this!
    Yours sincerely, Richard"
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    tlg86 said:

    Man City playing the long game and doing their best to ensure Ten Hag isn't sacked.

    Are we sure they aren't still pissed from celebrating the EPL win?
    It's a repeat of 2017. Chelsea were so obviously still hungover when Arsenal beat them.
    If the result holds then Ten Hag has won
    more trophies in two seasons than Arteta has in five.

    Get rid of Lego hair head.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    edited May 25
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    He's just generally invisible. The Post Office stuff is probably a plus for him.
    It really isn't.

    Remember, my first post in the 2019 campaign was how toxic Jo Swinson was on the doorsteps.
    So are you forecasting a Tory hold in the South Hams?
    Yes. We have an excellent and well regarded MP. (Now South Devon, rather than Totnes BTW)
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Leon said:

    fpt for @Omnium

    "I think [Musk is] really great. No caveats on that."

    ***
    I agree. He is touched with greatness. Lex Fridman has called him "the great maker of our time" and that rings true

    He is one of the top ten engineers in history? He's right up there with Tesla, Brunel and Edison etc

    This doesn't stop him being a pain in the arse quite a lot of the time; indeed the two might well be linked

    I have recently done a 2 week ocean passage on a small boat first time since 2018. Then, radio silence unless you wanted to send a text over sat phone for 13 guineas a word. Now, wall to wall high speed internet via Starlink. I was so blown away I bought (in mid Pacific)Scottish Mortgage (only way to invest in SpaceX/Starlink). Looks a canny move so far
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
    Thanks. I assume she'll probably stand whenever happens, the only question is whether it's as the official Lab candidate or an ind.
    I just can't see Diane Abbott standing as an independent. I'm erring on the side of Starmer admitting her back to the party in return for a Trappist vow, to do otherwise would be a self-inflicted wound.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
    Thanks. I assume she'll probably stand whenever happens, the only question is whether it's as the official Lab candidate or an ind.
    I just can't see Diane Abbott standing as an independent. I'm erring on the side of Starmer admitting her back to the party in return for a Trappist vow, to do otherwise would be a self-inflicted wound.
    I think she'd be even more likely than JC to win as an indy
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    megasaur said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for @Omnium

    "I think [Musk is] really great. No caveats on that."

    ***
    I agree. He is touched with greatness. Lex Fridman has called him "the great maker of our time" and that rings true

    He is one of the top ten engineers in history? He's right up there with Tesla, Brunel and Edison etc

    This doesn't stop him being a pain in the arse quite a lot of the time; indeed the two might well be linked

    I have recently done a 2 week ocean passage on a small boat first time since 2018. Then, radio silence unless you wanted to send a text over sat phone for 13 guineas a word. Now, wall to wall high speed internet via Starlink. I was so blown away I bought (in mid Pacific)Scottish Mortgage (only way to invest in SpaceX/Starlink). Looks a canny move so far
    Fascinating. How exactly do you invest in "Scottish Mortgage" (I am fairly clueless on these things)
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758

    tlg86 said:

    Man City playing the long game and doing their best to ensure Ten Hag isn't sacked.

    Are we sure they aren't still pissed from celebrating the EPL win?
    It's a repeat of 2017. Chelsea were so obviously still hungover when Arsenal beat them.
    If the result holds then Ten Hag has won
    more trophies in two seasons than Arteta has in five.

    Get rid of Lego hair head.
    Nah, he's hear for the long haul, unlike certain managers...
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048

    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
    Thanks. I assume she'll probably stand whenever happens, the only question is whether it's as the official Lab candidate or an ind.
    I just can't see Diane Abbott standing as an independent. I'm erring on the side of Starmer admitting her back to the party in return for a Trappist vow, to do otherwise would be a self-inflicted wound.
    I think she'd be even more likely than JC to win as an indy
    The constituency results would suggest that, but I think Corbyn's vote is more entrenched (both pro and anti him - there's a section of people who would vote Labour but not for Corbyn) and Abbott's vote is more a generic Labour vote.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    edited May 25
    stodge said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    What reports are these? Are you canvassing?
    Let's stop calling a spade a garden implement.

    @MarqueeMark is a Conservative activist facing a Lib Dem challenge in his seat. - he's not going to be objective about this. It's probably on the script when he meets a dithering ex-Conservative so I wouldn't put too much significance into it - if it wasn't this it would be the old "you know when it comes to it they'll back Labour" schtick.

    His purpose is to dissuade uncertain Conservatives from backing the LDs and bring them back into the fold.
    Oh, the Tories weren't in charge of the PO then? Notd even a teensy weensy bittockie?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Ironic to reflect that the last Labour leader to fight his seat after expulsion from the party was er, Ramsay Macdonald...
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen this message from Richard Holden MP to Tory supporters.

    "I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
    Now let’s win this!
    Yours sincerely, Richard"

    Not a single positive reason given to vote Tory, just an avalanche of negative invective against Labour. The Tories truly deserve the kicking they are about to get.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    Straw in the wind from my dad: "I probably will vote Tory as I don't like Richard Tice."
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    edited May 25
    Did he deliver in this position?

    Or was he lost in the post?
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,362
    Cicero said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen this message from Richard Holden MP to Tory supporters.

    "I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
    Now let’s win this!
    Yours sincerely, Richard"

    Not a single positive reason given to vote Tory, just an avalanche of negative invective against Labour. The Tories truly deserve the kicking they are about to get.
    The primary reason for voting Tory has always been to keep Labour out.
    And vice versa, to be fair.
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    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Leon said:

    megasaur said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for @Omnium

    "I think [Musk is] really great. No caveats on that."

    ***
    I agree. He is touched with greatness. Lex Fridman has called him "the great maker of our time" and that rings true

    He is one of the top ten engineers in history? He's right up there with Tesla, Brunel and Edison etc

    This doesn't stop him being a pain in the arse quite a lot of the time; indeed the two might well be linked

    I have recently done a 2 week ocean passage on a small boat first time since 2018. Then, radio silence unless you wanted to send a text over sat phone for 13 guineas a word. Now, wall to wall high speed internet via Starlink. I was so blown away I bought (in mid Pacific)Scottish Mortgage (only way to invest in SpaceX/Starlink). Looks a canny move so far
    Fascinating. How exactly do you invest in "Scottish Mortgage" (I am fairly clueless on these things)
    Scottish Mortgage Trust, a ludicrously misnamed investment trust. It's a share traded on the London market
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    Health warning: I've an atrocious record with by-election betting.

    Nevertheless I think Corbyn is far too short here. He shouldn't even be odds on, I don't think. So I've laid small at an average price slightly under 1.5 and will add more if the odds drift to 1.3 region.

    My reasoning is essentially the demographics of Islington (available at ONS website https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/censusareachanges/E09000019/ ) mean his personal vote isn't going to be anything like as large as politico types think. Basically it's just too transient for that. About a quarter don't identify as British in any sense and plenty more while identifying as British are naturalised (presumably relatively recently) and thus much less likely to have "grown up with" Corbyn and give a stuff about him personally as a local personality. There also isn't a significant enough Muslim population for him to use Gaza as an issue - about 12%.

    And this election is all going to be about getting Labour in and the Tories out.

    The obvious counter argument to my theory is that the transients will be voting less anyway. And as I said at beginning of this post while I'm a successful political better I am atrocious at by-elections. I feel good about this bet though.

    There's also a "we liked having Corbyn as our MP, but he's had his time in the sun and it's time to move on" feeling amongst some longer-term residents.

    Some of the talk about the CLP being entirely pro-Corbyn is a bit overblown. There've been some motions which have thanked him for his service, which have passed by huge margins - but they've been worded in a way to make them as acceptable to as many people as possible.

    I think the seat is entirely winnable for Labour, but they'll need to put some effort in. If Corbyn leads a by-election style campaign with Labour being invisible, then he'll win by default.

    I wouldn't want to bet on it until it becomes clear whether Labour are willing (or able) to put up a fight - but if they do, Corbyn is a lay at 1.5.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited May 25
    Cookie said:

    Cicero said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen this message from Richard Holden MP to Tory supporters.

    "I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
    Now let’s win this!
    Yours sincerely, Richard"

    Not a single positive reason given to vote Tory, just an avalanche of negative invective against Labour. The Tories truly deserve the kicking they are about to get.
    The primary reason for voting Tory has always been to keep Labour out.
    And vice versa, to be fair.
    I think for most of the population its simpler than that. Do I want the current lot to carry on or do I think there should be a change. It is why the good election to lose is rubbish, not only do you have the levers of power, but also there is a fair bit of inertia. It is much easier to go I know what I am getting than taking a risk on somebody different. Its also when the the walls break, everything goes downhill fast.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited May 25
    Nobody like a showoff....

    Just Newcastle midfielder Sean Longstaff dismissing Phil Mustard’s son…
    https://x.com/henrymoeranBBC/status/1794390571571884457

    Surprised he is allowed to play tbh. I have a family friend whose son made it to the pros and his club wouldn't let him do anything sporty other than a round of golf.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    Your wishful thinking is touching.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    @ydoethur - Labour 7/2 for Ceredigion Preseli. Do you think that might be value? The extra bit of the seat down to Fishguard looks more Labour to me.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    edited May 25
    tlg86 said:

    @ydoethur - Labour 7/2 for Ceredigion Preseli. Do you think that might be value? The extra bit of the seat down to Fishguard looks more Labour to me.

    No.

    Edited to explain - they were a poor third last time and seats in Wales tend to have less dramatic swings than those in England. Most of the Preseli area is fairly Tory. The university students in Aber and Lampeter who provide a fair chunk of the Labour vote will be away.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited May 25
    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Its a slippery slope. Once you start playing silly buggers, nothing stopping a future Tory government saying no voting if you are still in formal education as not a tax payer (if the argument for 16 years olds is some of them pay tax).
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    Cicero said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen this message from Richard Holden MP to Tory supporters.

    "I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
    Now let’s win this!
    Yours sincerely, Richard"

    Not a single positive reason given to vote Tory, just an avalanche of negative invective against Labour. The Tories truly deserve the kicking they are about to get.
    A clear plan. Like spending two years and half a billion pounds on a Rwanda plan then cancelling it weeks before you claim it is about to start. Or the endless yo-yo on universities and overseas students. Or taxing non-doms being disastrous or good. Or an energy subsidy being communist nonsense or the government helping out. And so on.

    The Tory election mantra is all about them having a clear plan. But no-one thinks they do, because they don't, so it will fail to get any traction.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    edited May 25
    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    @ydoethur - Labour 7/2 for Ceredigion Preseli. Do you think that might be value? The extra bit of the seat down to Fishguard looks more Labour to me.

    No.

    Edited to explain - they were a poor third last time and seats in Wales tend to have less dramatic swings than those in England. Most of the Preseli area is fairly Tory. The university students in Aber and Lampeter who provide a fair chunk of the Labour vote will be away.
    Thank you!

    EDIT: I'm still annoyed about Labour missing out on Arfon by 92 votes in 2017. They were 8/1 that time.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    Your wishful thinking is touching.
    I would be amazed if Davey were not fatally wounded by this. Bates v PO was the big thing on netflix before baby reindeer, and everyone is riveted by the inquiry. Davey is lucky that he is not due to give evidence till 18 July but that's not necessarily going to save him.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    megasaur said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    Your wishful thinking is touching.
    I would be amazed if Davey were not fatally wounded by this. Bates v PO was the big thing on netflix before baby reindeer, and everyone is riveted by the inquiry. Davey is lucky that he is not due to give evidence till 18 July but that's not necessarily going to save him.
    Rubbish.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    tlg86 said:

    @ydoethur - Labour 7/2 for Ceredigion Preseli. Do you think that might be value? The extra bit of the seat down to Fishguard looks more Labour to me.

    No.

    Edited to explain - they were a poor third last time and seats in Wales tend to have less dramatic swings than those in England. Most of the Preseli area is fairly Tory. The university students in Aber and Lampeter who provide a fair chunk of the Labour vote will be away.
    Thank you!
    At one point I thought that might be a surprise Tory gain. However, I would expect Ben Lake to hold it fairly comfortably at this moment.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Where have we learnt these things?
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    AlsoLei said:

    Health warning: I've an atrocious record with by-election betting.

    Nevertheless I think Corbyn is far too short here. He shouldn't even be odds on, I don't think. So I've laid small at an average price slightly under 1.5 and will add more if the odds drift to 1.3 region.

    My reasoning is essentially the demographics of Islington (available at ONS website https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/censusareachanges/E09000019/ ) mean his personal vote isn't going to be anything like as large as politico types think. Basically it's just too transient for that. About a quarter don't identify as British in any sense and plenty more while identifying as British are naturalised (presumably relatively recently) and thus much less likely to have "grown up with" Corbyn and give a stuff about him personally as a local personality. There also isn't a significant enough Muslim population for him to use Gaza as an issue - about 12%.

    And this election is all going to be about getting Labour in and the Tories out.

    The obvious counter argument to my theory is that the transients will be voting less anyway. And as I said at beginning of this post while I'm a successful political better I am atrocious at by-elections. I feel good about this bet though.

    There's also a "we liked having Corbyn as our MP, but he's had his time in the sun and it's time to move on" feeling amongst some longer-term residents.

    Some of the talk about the CLP being entirely pro-Corbyn is a bit overblown. There've been some motions which have thanked him for his service, which have passed by huge margins - but they've been worded in a way to make them as acceptable to as many people as possible.

    I think the seat is entirely winnable for Labour, but they'll need to put some effort in. If Corbyn leads a by-election style campaign with Labour being invisible, then he'll win by default.

    I wouldn't want to bet on it until it becomes clear whether Labour are willing (or able) to put up a fight - but if they do, Corbyn is a lay at 1.5.
    The candidate the NEC picked - a 1st term Islington councillor rather than the 2nd term sitting London Assembly member seems to suggest that they aren't that interested in holding it. If Islington North sucks in all the opposition activists to the left of Labour, SKS would be delighted.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    edited May 25

    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Its a slippery slope. Once you start playing silly buggers, nothing stopping a future Tory government saying no voting if you are still in formal education as not a tax payer (if the argument for 16 years olds is some of them pay tax).
    Quite a few OAP's don't pay tax ... though fewer than before (which is why some will be unhappy BTW).

    Ditto disabled people who rely on allowances, I presume.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677
    Cookie said:

    Cicero said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen this message from Richard Holden MP to Tory supporters.

    "I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
    Now let’s win this!
    Yours sincerely, Richard"

    Not a single positive reason given to vote Tory, just an avalanche of negative invective against Labour. The Tories truly deserve the kicking they are about to get.
    The primary reason for voting Tory has always been to keep Labour out.
    And vice versa, to be fair.
    Unfortunately yes. From which three things follow.

    The way to read 2019 wasn't that Boris was popular, it was that Jeremy was (by then) very unpopular.

    The way to read 2024 is that the Conservatives are very unpopular.

    And, slightly sadly, being beige and offering a tiny target wins. All an opposition can really do is wait for the government to mess up and make sure they are vaguely presentable when the time comes.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    tlg86 said:

    Straw in the wind from my dad: "I probably will vote Tory as I don't like Richard Tice."

    Tice sounds exactly like Farage on the radio which is odd because I thought nobody spoke like Farage. Perhaps they share one of those Hawking voicebox things
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    If she is Wikipedia hasn't yet heard it. There's no Tory either. It will be front page when Labour announce this.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707

    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Where have we learnt these things?
    1 = encouraging people to vote
    2 = encouraging people to vote.

    No inconsistency ...
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Age to start voting is always going to be arbitrary. My preference would be to unify more of the age restrictions, and give young people more autonomy. If you can join the army you should be allowed to buy a beer, drive and vote.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,362
    Farooq said:

    Does anyone not a supporter of either club actually give a shit who wins this?

    I thought I didn't, til United scored. Then I found myself thinking "good". Bad news for United fans is that now means City will come back and win. Sorry about that.

    In general, as long as a team from Manchester is winning I'm broadly pleased.
    I used to dislike Man United quite a lot. I blame it on a boy at school who appeared to think when Man U won something it somehow reflected favourably on him. I found the use of 'we' to refer to eleven other people absurd.
    And then I disliked them because Ferguson achieved the high bar of being the least likeable person in British football.
    But now, you know, fuck it. They're two arbitrary teams of professionals. But most people I know IRL support one or the other so whoever wins I'm happy.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    If she is Wikipedia hasn't yet heard it. There's no Tory either. It will be front page when Labour announce this.
    But we have no Prior knowledge of her decision.
  • Options
    megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    Cicero said:

    megasaur said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    Your wishful thinking is touching.
    I would be amazed if Davey were not fatally wounded by this. Bates v PO was the big thing on netflix before baby reindeer, and everyone is riveted by the inquiry. Davey is lucky that he is not due to give evidence till 18 July but that's not necessarily going to save him.
    Rubbish.
    Why?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    Well, I did not expect that. Chuffed to bits.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Its a slippery slope. Once you start playing silly buggers, nothing stopping a future Tory government saying no voting if you are still in formal education as not a tax payer (if the argument for 16 years olds is some of them pay tax).
    Quite a few OAP's don't pay tax ... though fewer than before (which is why some will be unhappy BTW).

    Ditto disabled people who rely on allowances, I presume.
    DLA, PIP and Attendance Allowance are non-taxable.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    Cookie said:

    Cicero said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen this message from Richard Holden MP to Tory supporters.

    "I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
    Now let’s win this!
    Yours sincerely, Richard"

    Not a single positive reason given to vote Tory, just an avalanche of negative invective against Labour. The Tories truly deserve the kicking they are about to get.
    The primary reason for voting Tory has always been to keep Labour out.
    And vice versa, to be fair.
    I think for most of the population its simpler than that. Do I want the current lot to carry on or do I think there should be a change. It is why the good election to lose is rubbish, not only do you have the levers of power, but also there is a fair bit of inertia. It is much easier to go I know what I am getting than taking a risk on somebody different. Its also when the the walls break, everything goes downhill fast.
    Question for historians...

    When (if ever) has a government that was doing fine been overtaken by an opposition promising to do better? The changes in government in my lifetime have all been based on the outgoing government having clearly visibly failed or died of exhaustion.

    One should maybe have some pity for the Kemi Badenochs and Claire Corthinos of this world- this is probably it as far as a ministerial career goes.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    DavidL said:

    Well, I did not expect that. Chuffed to bits.

    Amazing - who said you cannot win anything with kids

    And into Europa league knocking Chelsea down to conference
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    edited May 25
    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
    Thanks. I assume she'll probably stand whenever happens, the only question is whether it's as the official Lab candidate or an ind.
    I just can't see Diane Abbott standing as an independent. I'm erring on the side of Starmer admitting her back to the party in return for a Trappist vow, to do otherwise would be a self-inflicted wound.
    Agree. I think they will let her back in to stand.

    there are 9 working days left before nominations close on Friday 7th June

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/timetable-for-the-2024-general-election/
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    dixiedean said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Its a slippery slope. Once you start playing silly buggers, nothing stopping a future Tory government saying no voting if you are still in formal education as not a tax payer (if the argument for 16 years olds is some of them pay tax).
    Quite a few OAP's don't pay tax ... though fewer than before (which is why some will be unhappy BTW).

    Ditto disabled people who rely on allowances, I presume.
    DLA, PIP and Attendance Allowance are non-taxable.
    And ESA for those of us still on it falls well short of taxable income levels.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    megasaur said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    Your wishful thinking is touching.
    I would be amazed if Davey were not fatally wounded by this. Bates v PO was the big thing on netflix before baby reindeer, and everyone is riveted by the inquiry. Davey is lucky that he is not due to give evidence till 18 July but that's not necessarily going to save him.
    Context is everything. Ed Davey is barely a household name in his own kitchen so it is doubtful many hold him responsible for jailing SPMs. However, if Tory activists, while canvassing, say to waverers that the LibDem leader was directly involved, then and only then will the LibDems be hurt.

    Anyone who thinks Ed Davey is already wounded can oppose the 1/66 LibDems in his own constituency, Kingston & Surbiton; Labour and Conservatives are both 20/1 with Bet365.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,532
    Good to see Man U win

    I have no problem with Man C but it's good to see other teams win occasionally!
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048

    Cookie said:

    Cicero said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen this message from Richard Holden MP to Tory supporters.

    "I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
    Now let’s win this!
    Yours sincerely, Richard"

    Not a single positive reason given to vote Tory, just an avalanche of negative invective against Labour. The Tories truly deserve the kicking they are about to get.
    The primary reason for voting Tory has always been to keep Labour out.
    And vice versa, to be fair.
    I think for most of the population its simpler than that. Do I want the current lot to carry on or do I think there should be a change. It is why the good election to lose is rubbish, not only do you have the levers of power, but also there is a fair bit of inertia. It is much easier to go I know what I am getting than taking a risk on somebody different. Its also when the the walls break, everything goes downhill fast.
    Question for historians...

    When (if ever) has a government that was doing fine been overtaken by an opposition promising to do better? The changes in government in my lifetime have all been based on the outgoing government having clearly visibly failed or died of exhaustion.

    One should maybe have some pity for the Kemi Badenochs and Claire Corthinos of this world- this is probably it as far as a ministerial career goes.
    Possibly 1945 but obviously there were very unusual circumstances. You might make a stretch for 1997, the Conservative government had run out of ideas but it was still doing the basic work of governing the country adequately.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    megasaur said:

    Leon said:

    megasaur said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for @Omnium

    "I think [Musk is] really great. No caveats on that."

    ***
    I agree. He is touched with greatness. Lex Fridman has called him "the great maker of our time" and that rings true

    He is one of the top ten engineers in history? He's right up there with Tesla, Brunel and Edison etc

    This doesn't stop him being a pain in the arse quite a lot of the time; indeed the two might well be linked

    I have recently done a 2 week ocean passage on a small boat first time since 2018. Then, radio silence unless you wanted to send a text over sat phone for 13 guineas a word. Now, wall to wall high speed internet via Starlink. I was so blown away I bought (in mid Pacific)Scottish Mortgage (only way to invest in SpaceX/Starlink). Looks a canny move so far
    Fascinating. How exactly do you invest in "Scottish Mortgage" (I am fairly clueless on these things)
    Scottish Mortgage Trust, a ludicrously misnamed investment trust. It's a share traded on the London market
    Ta
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423
    Leon said:

    megasaur said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for @Omnium

    "I think [Musk is] really great. No caveats on that."

    ***
    I agree. He is touched with greatness. Lex Fridman has called him "the great maker of our time" and that rings true

    He is one of the top ten engineers in history? He's right up there with Tesla, Brunel and Edison etc

    This doesn't stop him being a pain in the arse quite a lot of the time; indeed the two might well be linked

    I have recently done a 2 week ocean passage on a small boat first time since 2018. Then, radio silence unless you wanted to send a text over sat phone for 13 guineas a word. Now, wall to wall high speed internet via Starlink. I was so blown away I bought (in mid Pacific)Scottish Mortgage (only way to invest in SpaceX/Starlink). Looks a canny move so far
    Fascinating. How exactly do you invest in "Scottish Mortgage" (I am fairly clueless on these things)
    SpaceX is privately held. That means the shares are not listed on any exchange, and buying them is very difficult.

    Some companies have bought into them and are *claiming* to offer investments tied to the value of the chunk of SpaceX they own.

    To be frank, you’d need all the scepticism required for companies offering investments in gold, for such transactions.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    algarkirk said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
    Thanks. I assume she'll probably stand whenever happens, the only question is whether it's as the official Lab candidate or an ind.
    I just can't see Diane Abbott standing as an independent. I'm erring on the side of Starmer admitting her back to the party in return for a Trappist vow, to do otherwise would be a self-inflicted wound.
    Agree. I think they will let her back in to stand.

    there are 9 working days left before nominations close on Friday 7th June

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/timetable-for-the-2024-general-election/
    Decision due by June 4, if she's in playful mood she should say thanks then fill in her nomination as an indy on the 7th
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
    Thanks. I assume she'll probably stand whenever happens, the only question is whether it's as the official Lab candidate or an ind.
    The constituency - particularly on its new boundaries - is much less fertile ground for an independent candidacy than Islington North. The Stoke Newington bit gentrified heavily about 20 years ago, and is now pretty solidly affluent. The Charedi community in the Stamford Hill and Cazenove wards has an increasingly strong voice, and is very unlikely to vote for Abbot if she stands on a notably pro-Palestine platform.

    The party locally is badly split, with some recent councillors having left to form an 'Independent Socialist Group', and a recent Tory by-election gain.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 5,017
    Leon said:

    fpt for @Omnium

    "I think [Musk is] really great. No caveats on that."

    ***
    I agree. He is touched with greatness. Lex Fridman has called him "the great maker of our time" and that rings true

    He is one of the top ten engineers in history? He's right up there with Tesla, Brunel and Edison etc

    This doesn't stop him being a pain in the arse quite a lot of the time; indeed the two might well be linked

    Is the basic problem that he can't be cancelled? That is why I think he is hated; he is a threat to the cultural dominance of the left.


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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
    Thanks. I assume she'll probably stand whenever happens, the only question is whether it's as the official Lab candidate or an ind.
    I just can't see Diane Abbott standing as an independent. I'm erring on the side of Starmer admitting her back to the party in return for a Trappist vow, to do otherwise would be a self-inflicted wound.
    I think she'd be even more likely than JC to win as an indy
    It's not out of the question that she'd win as an independent, but there is no way she'd be better placed in her seat than Corbyn in his. Corbyn is a more iconic figure both in terms of attracting campaigners to assist and as a motivator for Labour voters in a rock solid seat to move away from the red rose for once.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    edited May 25

    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Age to start voting is always going to be arbitrary. My preference would be to unify more of the age restrictions, and give young people more autonomy. If you can join the army you should be allowed to buy a beer, drive and vote.
    Yet the law considers you under 18 to be a child.
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    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 193
    Cicero said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen this message from Richard Holden MP to Tory supporters.

    "I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
    Now let’s win this!
    Yours sincerely, Richard"

    Not a single positive reason given to vote Tory, just an avalanche of negative invective against Labour. The Tories truly deserve the kicking they are about to get.
    Agreed. And I don't think seatless Holden is an asset to them either....nasty piece of work
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,617

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    Your wishful thinking is touching.
    I don’t know; I’m programmed to think the best for the LibDems, and, regrettably, I’ve always considered Mr MM to be well-informed on matters in his locality.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Age to start voting is always going to be arbitrary. My preference would be to unify more of the age restrictions, and give young people more autonomy. If you can join the army you should be allowed to buy a beer, drive and vote.
    Yet the law considers you under 18 to be a child.
    No - there are a series a steps with more and more autonomy granted as you get older.

    For example you can have a bank account from 11, but need to be 13 to open it yourself etc
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,767
    The Lib Dems haven't had a really good GE for nearly twenty years, and there's no particular reason to suppose that their fortunes will improve dramatically this time around. They're still roughly where they were in 2019 in the headline VI figures; if the Tories perform cataclysmically then a lot of the LD second places from that election are liable to be swamped in a Labour tide; and if there's a modest Tory recovery it'll put most of the Con-LD marginals beyond their reach. If the yellows finish with more than about 25 seats that can be counted as a strong performance under the circumstances.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,930

    megasaur said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    Your wishful thinking is touching.
    I would be amazed if Davey were not fatally wounded by this. Bates v PO was the big thing on netflix before baby reindeer, and everyone is riveted by the inquiry. Davey is lucky that he is not due to give evidence till 18 July but that's not necessarily going to save him.
    Context is everything. Ed Davey is barely a household name in his own kitchen so it is doubtful many hold him responsible for jailing SPMs. However, if Tory activists, while canvassing, say to waverers that the LibDem leader was directly involved, then and only then will the LibDems be hurt.

    Anyone who thinks Ed Davey is already wounded can oppose the 1/66 LibDems in his own constituency, Kingston & Surbiton; Labour and Conservatives are both 20/1 with Bet365.
    If he's barely a household name in his own kitchen, are the Lib Dems really going to be hurt that much by a canvasser saying, "y'know that bloke you barely know? Well here's some gossip about him..."

    The most effective Tory tactic in most Lib Dem leaning seats is to play the split vote game by talking up Labour and pretending they didn't even know the Lib Dems were standing.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    edited May 25
    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Deliberate voter suppression tactics (confirmed by Jacob Rees Mogg) is always disgusting.

    Widening the franchise needs debate. Personally I am not necessarily in favour. Although it would have been handy at the EU Ref for Cameron.

    Disenfranchising your opponents' supporters is always wrong whatever colour your rosette.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111
    Giving the vote to 16 and 17 year-olds = extending the franchise.

    Demanding photographic voter ID at polling stations = restricting the franchise.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
    Thanks. I assume she'll probably stand whenever happens, the only question is whether it's as the official Lab candidate or an ind.
    I just can't see Diane Abbott standing as an independent. I'm erring on the side of Starmer admitting her back to the party in return for a Trappist vow, to do otherwise would be a self-inflicted wound.
    I think she'd be even more likely than JC to win as an indy
    It's not out of the question that she'd win as an independent, but there is no way she'd be better placed in her seat than Corbyn in his. Corbyn is a more iconic figure both in terms of attracting campaigners to assist and as a motivator for Labour voters in a rock solid seat to move away from the red rose for once.
    My feeling on it is Diane seems well liked in H and SN whereas JC is more marmite in Islington and council results suggest Hackney's good burghers are more than happy to desert Labour when the mood strikes
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Age to start voting is always going to be arbitrary. My preference would be to unify more of the age restrictions, and give young people more autonomy. If you can join the army you should be allowed to buy a beer, drive and vote.
    Yet the law considers you under 18 to be a child.
    Well then we shouldnt have child soldiers.

    It is an arbitrary age. Make it all 16, 18, 21 or whatever.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,362

    Cicero said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just seen this message from Richard Holden MP to Tory supporters.

    "I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
    Now let’s win this!
    Yours sincerely, Richard"

    Not a single positive reason given to vote Tory, just an avalanche of negative invective against Labour. The Tories truly deserve the kicking they are about to get.
    A clear plan. Like spending two years and half a billion pounds on a Rwanda plan then cancelling it weeks before you claim it is about to start. Or the endless yo-yo on universities and overseas students. Or taxing non-doms being disastrous or good. Or an energy subsidy being communist nonsense or the government helping out. And so on.

    The Tory election mantra is all about them having a clear plan. But no-one thinks they do, because they don't, so it will fail to get any traction.
    I could add HS2 (or indeed transport policy generally) to that list.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    edited May 25

    megasaur said:

    Early reports on the LibDems: their leader is toxic on the Post Office scandal...

    Your wishful thinking is touching.
    I would be amazed if Davey were not fatally wounded by this. Bates v PO was the big thing on netflix before baby reindeer, and everyone is riveted by the inquiry. Davey is lucky that he is not due to give evidence till 18 July but that's not necessarily going to save him.
    Context is everything. Ed Davey is barely a household name in his own kitchen so it is doubtful many hold him responsible for jailing SPMs. However, if Tory activists, while canvassing, say to waverers that the LibDem leader was directly involved, then and only then will the LibDems be hurt.

    Anyone who thinks Ed Davey is already wounded can oppose the 1/66 LibDems in his own constituency, Kingston & Surbiton; Labour and Conservatives are both 20/1 with Bet365.
    If he's barely a household name in his own kitchen, are the Lib Dems really going to be hurt that much by a canvasser saying, "y'know that bloke you barely know? Well here's some gossip about him..."

    The most effective Tory tactic in most Lib Dem leaning seats is to play the split vote game by talking up Labour and pretending they didn't even know the Lib Dems were standing.
    Agreed. There's no Ashdown or Kennedy, no Cleggmania and no recent history of GE glory. The LD problem will be getting noticed and not written off as cup (Bys and locals) specialists
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Age to start voting is always going to be arbitrary. My preference would be to unify more of the age restrictions, and give young people more autonomy. If you can join the army you should be allowed to buy a beer, drive and vote.
    Yet the law considers you under 18 to be a child.
    No - there are a series a steps with more and more autonomy granted as you get older.

    For example you can have a bank account from 11, but need to be 13 to open it yourself etc
    Agreed. There shouldn't be a single point in time at which everything should be allowed. However, for me, votes at 16 should mean any 16 year old charged with a crime should be named. Those two things feel like they ought to go hand in hand.
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    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048
    pigeon said:

    The Lib Dems haven't had a really good GE for nearly twenty years, and there's no particular reason to suppose that their fortunes will improve dramatically this time around. They're still roughly where they were in 2019 in the headline VI figures; if the Tories perform cataclysmically then a lot of the LD second places from that election are liable to be swamped in a Labour tide; and if there's a modest Tory recovery it'll put most of the Con-LD marginals beyond their reach. If the yellows finish with more than about 25 seats that can be counted as a strong performance under the circumstances.

    The only way that the Lib Dems will be under 25 seats is if the Tories end up with over 250. If there's a modest Tory recovery and they get to 200 seats that's 172 losses compared to 2019 notionals and if doesn't seem plausible that the Lib Dems will pick up less than 10% of the Tory lost seats.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    ...
    tlg86 said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    What we’re learning today. Those who think the Tories introducing voter ID to help them is evil beyond belief believe labour introducing votes for children to suit them is ace and vice versa.

    Brill.

    Age to start voting is always going to be arbitrary. My preference would be to unify more of the age restrictions, and give young people more autonomy. If you can join the army you should be allowed to buy a beer, drive and vote.
    Yet the law considers you under 18 to be a child.
    No - there are a series a steps with more and more autonomy granted as you get older.

    For example you can have a bank account from 11, but need to be 13 to open it yourself etc
    Agreed. There shouldn't be a single point in time at which everything should be allowed. However, for me, votes at 16 should mean any 16 year old charged with a crime should be named. Those two things feel like they ought to go hand in hand.
    That's fair enough. With entitlement comes obligation.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,048

    DM_Andy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Diane Abbott standing again in Hackney North?

    She's waiting on the NEC decision if she can be readmitted I think
    Thanks. I assume she'll probably stand whenever happens, the only question is whether it's as the official Lab candidate or an ind.
    I just can't see Diane Abbott standing as an independent. I'm erring on the side of Starmer admitting her back to the party in return for a Trappist vow, to do otherwise would be a self-inflicted wound.
    I think she'd be even more likely than JC to win as an indy
    It's not out of the question that she'd win as an independent, but there is no way she'd be better placed in her seat than Corbyn in his. Corbyn is a more iconic figure both in terms of attracting campaigners to assist and as a motivator for Labour voters in a rock solid seat to move away from the red rose for once.
    My feeling on it is Diane seems well liked in H and SN whereas JC is more marmite in Islington and council results suggest Hackney's good burghers are more than happy to desert Labour when the mood strikes
    That is exactly why JC is more likely to win as an independent than DA. In a first past the post election it doesn't matter how intensely people hate a candidate as long as more people really like the candidate.

This discussion has been closed.