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Coming to a Lib Dem bar chart near you – politicalbetting.com
Coming to a Lib Dem bar chart near you – politicalbetting.com
While voters are known to exaggerate when it comes to hypotheticals, it is striking to see such a clear effect 1) on changed boundaries and 2) before campaign messaging has kicked in. (Data from the first two waves of our @JLPartnersPolls / @RestIsPolitics tracker.)
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Remember, my first post in the 2019 campaign was how toxic Jo Swinson was on the doorsteps.
It is a very heartwarming story about a club founded just over a decade ago challenging at the top of Scottish football.
"I think [Musk is] really great. No caveats on that."
***
I agree. He is touched with greatness. Lex Fridman has called him "the great maker of our time" and that rings true
He is one of the top ten engineers in history? He's right up there with Tesla, Brunel and Edison etc
This doesn't stop him being a pain in the arse quite a lot of the time; indeed the two might well be linked
Tho yes of course I often intend to make interestingly provocative comments on PB, isn;'t that the reason we come here? I don't come here to make boring statements of obvious fact, or read people politely agreeing on everything
Nevertheless I think Corbyn is far too short here. He shouldn't even be odds on, I don't think. So I've laid small at an average price slightly under 1.5 and will add more if the odds drift to 1.3 region.
My reasoning is essentially the demographics of Islington (available at ONS website https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/censusareachanges/E09000019/ ) mean his personal vote isn't going to be anything like as large as politico types think. Basically it's just too transient for that. About a quarter don't identify as British in any sense and plenty more while identifying as British are naturalised (presumably relatively recently) and thus much less likely to have "grown up with" Corbyn and give a stuff about him personally as a local personality. There also isn't a significant enough Muslim population for him to use Gaza as an issue - about 12%.
And this election is all going to be about getting Labour in and the Tories out.
The obvious counter argument to my theory is that the transients will be voting less anyway. And as I said at beginning of this post while I'm a successful political better I am atrocious at by-elections. I feel good about this bet though.
@MarqueeMark is a Conservative activist facing a Lib Dem challenge in his seat. - he's not going to be objective about this. It's probably on the script when he meets a dithering ex-Conservative so I wouldn't put too much significance into it - if it wasn't this it would be the old "you know when it comes to it they'll back Labour" schtick.
His purpose is to dissuade uncertain Conservatives from backing the LDs and bring them back into the fold.
Oh, is that not what you meant?
Shazia Ali liked a post - published on Oct 8 - that said: “Nobody raped anyone. Stop this nonsense.”
The news reporter also “liked” a series of other tweets that appeared to justify Hamas’ atrocities on Oct 7, including a post from a different account that said: “You can’t expect a beaten and caged lion to purr when he finally breaks free.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/25/bbc-reporter-hamas-liked-tweet-rape-impartial-breach-wales/
Waiting for the excuse that wasn't really liking them, just bookmarking them for future reference.
National polling says Labour is the challenger.
I call it how I see it. My track record on pb.com is making people some serious money betting against the LibDems in the SW.
If you baxter the polls at the moment, the Tories will struggle to get 50 seats. But I reckon they could get anywhere from 40-160ish seats, meaning you'd probably want some money on at least three bands.
"I can’t believe it. Over the last 24 hours, hundreds and hundreds of people dipped into their hard-earned cash and donated to our campaign. It’s an amazing show of support — and it got us off to a strong start. So I wanted to say thank you, personally, to everyone who’s doing their bit to stop Sir Keir Starmer, stop Angela Rayner and deliver a secure future for every family. This election will be much closer than people think, and it will be decided by the people who contribute, like you. So let’s never forget what we’re facing. Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner, who just a few years ago were Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest cheerleaders, now think it’s their turn to run the country. But have you seen their record since 2019? Starmer and Rayner voted against more police funding. They voted against tougher sentences for the worst criminals. They voted against reforming our asylum system. And when Sir Keir Starmer wanted to get rid of Angela Rayner, he ended up giving in and promoting her! How will Starmer manage to stand up to Putin when he can’t even stand up to his own number two? In an uncertain world, you and your family deserve the security that comes from a clear plan and bold action. And it’s obvious that only the Conservatives will deliver it.
Now let’s win this!
Yours sincerely, Richard"
more trophies in two seasons than Arteta has in five.
Get rid of Lego hair head.
https://x.com/marrtoffee/status/1794387156288602161
Or was he lost in the post?
And vice versa, to be fair.
Some of the talk about the CLP being entirely pro-Corbyn is a bit overblown. There've been some motions which have thanked him for his service, which have passed by huge margins - but they've been worded in a way to make them as acceptable to as many people as possible.
I think the seat is entirely winnable for Labour, but they'll need to put some effort in. If Corbyn leads a by-election style campaign with Labour being invisible, then he'll win by default.
I wouldn't want to bet on it until it becomes clear whether Labour are willing (or able) to put up a fight - but if they do, Corbyn is a lay at 1.5.
Just Newcastle midfielder Sean Longstaff dismissing Phil Mustard’s son…
https://x.com/henrymoeranBBC/status/1794390571571884457
Surprised he is allowed to play tbh. I have a family friend whose son made it to the pros and his club wouldn't let him do anything sporty other than a round of golf.
Edited to explain - they were a poor third last time and seats in Wales tend to have less dramatic swings than those in England. Most of the Preseli area is fairly Tory. The university students in Aber and Lampeter who provide a fair chunk of the Labour vote will be away.
Brill.
The Tory election mantra is all about them having a clear plan. But no-one thinks they do, because they don't, so it will fail to get any traction.
EDIT: I'm still annoyed about Labour missing out on Arfon by 92 votes in 2017. They were 8/1 that time.
Ditto disabled people who rely on allowances, I presume.
The way to read 2019 wasn't that Boris was popular, it was that Jeremy was (by then) very unpopular.
The way to read 2024 is that the Conservatives are very unpopular.
And, slightly sadly, being beige and offering a tiny target wins. All an opposition can really do is wait for the government to mess up and make sure they are vaguely presentable when the time comes.
2 = encouraging people to vote.
No inconsistency ...
I used to dislike Man United quite a lot. I blame it on a boy at school who appeared to think when Man U won something it somehow reflected favourably on him. I found the use of 'we' to refer to eleven other people absurd.
And then I disliked them because Ferguson achieved the high bar of being the least likeable person in British football.
But now, you know, fuck it. They're two arbitrary teams of professionals. But most people I know IRL support one or the other so whoever wins I'm happy.
When (if ever) has a government that was doing fine been overtaken by an opposition promising to do better? The changes in government in my lifetime have all been based on the outgoing government having clearly visibly failed or died of exhaustion.
One should maybe have some pity for the Kemi Badenochs and Claire Corthinos of this world- this is probably it as far as a ministerial career goes.
And into Europa league knocking Chelsea down to conference
there are 9 working days left before nominations close on Friday 7th June
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/timetable-for-the-2024-general-election/
Anyone who thinks Ed Davey is already wounded can oppose the 1/66 LibDems in his own constituency, Kingston & Surbiton; Labour and Conservatives are both 20/1 with Bet365.
I have no problem with Man C but it's good to see other teams win occasionally!
Some companies have bought into them and are *claiming* to offer investments tied to the value of the chunk of SpaceX they own.
To be frank, you’d need all the scepticism required for companies offering investments in gold, for such transactions.
The party locally is badly split, with some recent councillors having left to form an 'Independent Socialist Group', and a recent Tory by-election gain.
For example you can have a bank account from 11, but need to be 13 to open it yourself etc
The most effective Tory tactic in most Lib Dem leaning seats is to play the split vote game by talking up Labour and pretending they didn't even know the Lib Dems were standing.
Widening the franchise needs debate. Personally I am not necessarily in favour. Although it would have been handy at the EU Ref for Cameron.
Disenfranchising your opponents' supporters is always wrong whatever colour your rosette.
Demanding photographic voter ID at polling stations = restricting the franchise.
It is an arbitrary age. Make it all 16, 18, 21 or whatever.