🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
Who the fuck cares? Honestly, can we have these posts with no comment or links banned?
If 16 and 17 year olds were more conservative than average in their voting habits, does anyone think Labour would be proposing to let them vote in elections?
Nobody ever puts forward changes to the franchise unless they’re convinced it will benefit their side.
Pretty much all sides supported reducing the voting age for women from 30 to 21 in 1928.
Because all sides were convinced it would help them. Labour thought young women wouldn't vote Tory and CCO knew they would.
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
And?
The helicopter was photographed flying over a MacDonalds which is the name of a former Labour PM, who didn't qualify for the Euros. Its another gaffe
🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
And?
The helicopter was photographed flying over a MacDonalds which is the name of a former Labour PM, who didn't qualify for the Euros. Its another gaffe
Macdonald led a mostly Tory government for over half his time in office, of course...
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
I can't claim any evidence that Rishi is a campaigning god, it's instinctive and based on nothing more than my experience in 1992. The disappointment was horrific, and this election smells like 1992 to me.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
Was there ever an election like this in which an entirely rational case can be made, this close to the poll, for the Tories getting 35 seats and the Tories getting 290 seats? (And, a fortiori, for everything in between).
🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
And?
The helicopter was photographed flying over a MacDonalds which is the name of a former Labour PM, who didn't qualify for the Euros. Its another gaffe
Macdonald led a mostly Tory government for over half his time in office, of course...
It's a double gaffe reverse blooper. Its baaaaaaad though, real bad. Hodges will be apoplectic
Holy shit. A guy just made a motion at the Libertarian National Convention for “Donald Trump to go f*ck himself” and the crowd all applauded. Trump is scheduled to speak tomorrow... https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1794164051557454041
There is clearly a section of Libertarian Party-hearties that (as in 2020) are in Trump's hip pocket.
So will be VERY interesting to see how this plays out.
Not really. A Con-LD marginal. One so marginal that it's likely to flip, granted, but more broadly the Tories' best chance of avoiding a wipeout is to tell MPs in the red wall gains to look to their own defences and try to hold as much as possible of the traditional Southern English heartland.
The Conservative Party is a lobby group for well-to-do owner-occupiers of heavily overpriced houses, aged about 50 upwards. Given the parlous state to which it has been reduced, there's precious little point in doing anything other than trying to shore up this core vote - if they can. It's a tribute to how dreadful Sunak is at politics that he allowed Hunt to cut NI rather than income tax.
Getting rid of NI is in the long term interests of the country. A part of the road to equalising taxation on all income.
I agree. It's essentially just another income tax, only with different rules and thresholds. And ER NICs are even worse - a pure tax on jobs!
But the Tories failed quite spectacularly to prepare the ground.
Sunak, as chancellor, had raised EE NICs by 1.25p in advance of the (later abandoned) Health & Social Care Levy. Kwarteng then reversed this, and then Hunt announced a further 2p cut. Finally, Hunt announced the plan to abolish them, together with another 2p cut.
At no time during any of that chaos did they try to explain to people what NICs are actually for. Many older people genuinely seem to be under the impression that they're payments into a pension fund - it's hard to see how that's come about as it's never been government policy (indeed, the state pension was introduced the year before National Insurance!), but it really does appear to be a widespread belief.
So we've had three NICs cuts in a row, which is enough to piss pensioners off all by itself - "why aren't we getting a tax cut too???". But if a large proportion of pensioners believe that Hunt's plan means that their pension will vanish, then it's easy to see why it's become so toxic.
All that was needed was a bit of advance publicity, and some investment in financial education. Bu they failed to do it, and have likely poisoned the issue for the next decade at least.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
It's time for me to re-post my prediction from yonks back, which I'm sticking to (for comedy value if nothing else): Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25. Lack of enthusiasm for Labour, size of swing required relative to last time, likely collapse of RefUK support, and a low turnout by exhausted and cynical voters (disproportionately impacting, as always, younger cohorts.)
Feel free to laugh when the widely predicted Labour landslide materialises.
Exclusive @Telegraph: Galloway's party has had to ditch a candidate because of antisemitism.
Hassan Chahine shared a video that said a “coven of Jews” had “seized” control of the US and that Jews have been punished through history for “killing Jesus"
🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
Maybe we could make it so people can vote *after* they've died? Like say make it possible to put something in their will along the lines of "I would like my vote at the next three general elections to go to party X". I am not a crackpot.
Nobody cares. Which is why 4 of you have commented how little you care so far.
Right. Got it...
Now you are just being petty Scott. And it's logically stupid again.
I responded to your post so I 'care' about it by your terms. But in what way do I care? I'm not going to vote Tory at this election, I assure you of that. So when I respond what am I caring about?
Not Rishi's reputation, as I don't want him to PM. Not the Tory reputation, as I don't want them to be in government after this election. BatteryCorrectHorse says they don't care, do you really think they give a sh*t about Rishi and the Tories?
So I'm fascinated to understand what you think I care about on this issue. What is it you think I am trying to accomplish by indicating I don't think the PM using a donor helicopter is important?
Because it seems like what you are saying is people are liars and you know their minds better than they do themselves.
When in fact the simplest answer is of course I care in the sense I responded to a post, but why does that signify something deeper in your eyes, and what does it signify when non-Tories are responding to it?
Exclusive @Telegraph: Galloway's party has had to ditch a candidate because of antisemitism.
Hassan Chahine shared a video that said a “coven of Jews” had “seized” control of the US and that Jews have been punished through history for “killing Jesus"
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
It's time for me to re-post my prediction from yonks back, which I'm sticking to (for comedy value if nothing else): Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25. Lack of enthusiasm for Labour, size of swing required relative to last time, likely collapse of RefUK support, and a low turnout by exhausted and cynical voters (disproportionately impacting, as always, younger cohorts.)
Feel free to laugh when the widely predicted Labour landslide materialises.
🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
And?
Desperate stuff from Scott & Paste.
Somehow I doubt if Scott Paste is one of the horny-handed sons of toil.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
The Liberal Democrats could do badly in the SW but well in Surrey and the Thames Valley and thus still end up with 40 seats.
It could be patchy.
I can't see a way Labour fall short of a majority.
Maybe we could make it so people can vote *after* they've died? Like say make it possible to put something in their will along the lines of "I would like my vote at the next three general elections to go to party X". I am not a crackpot.
So long as there is a limitation sounds sound, we don't want to fall foul of some rule against perpetuities.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
I can't claim any evidence that Rishi is a campaigning god, it's instinctive and based on nothing more than my experience in 1992. The disappointment was horrific, and this election smells like 1992 to me.
Other than that, a good post
Major was different from Rishi; despite being boring he had a sort of charm and genuineness belonging to the style of his background, a background which held things in common with zillions of the general public. He also had a background of Tory achievement to work from, including 11 years of Mrs T. He also faced a Labour leader who had purged the party of the total headbangers, but was still identifiably more socialist than worthy Methodist/social democrat in tone.
Several tweets follow this. It is utter meaningless drivel.
I am a huge sceptic of Tory Canada result, but I am beginning to wonder frankly...
You need to get used to it.
The Conservatives are going to fight this.
They are but it doesn't mean they will get anywhere. The idea that the tories are the 'strong and stable' option is not credible. They are now seen as the party of chaos. The only way this strategy can work is if they can make the labour party look dangerous.
Labour are dangerous.
Boris tbf to him wrote an excellent essay on this today.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
I can't claim any evidence that Rishi is a campaigning god, it's instinctive and based on nothing more than my experience in 1992. The disappointment was horrific, and this election smells like 1992 to me.
Other than that, a good post
There were some polls six weeks out from the 1992 election that had the Tories narrowly ahead of Labour (and others that had Labour narrowly ahead of the Tories). At the moment, Tories are taking comfort from any poll not showing a 20% deficit.
It's reasonable enough to say that there are arguments the Tories won't do as bad as the polling suggests, and that Labour will do a bit worse. But you just lose credibility saying it smells like 1992. It just doesn't - either poll-watching or on the doorsteps.
If 16 and 17 year olds were more conservative than average in their voting habits, does anyone think Labour would be proposing to let them vote in elections?
Several tweets follow this. It is utter meaningless drivel.
I am a huge sceptic of Tory Canada result, but I am beginning to wonder frankly...
You need to get used to it.
The Conservatives are going to fight this.
They are but it doesn't mean they will get anywhere. The idea that the tories are the 'strong and stable' option is not credible. They are now seen as the party of chaos. The only way this strategy can work is if they can make the labour party look dangerous.
Labour are dangerous.
Boris tbf to him wrote an excellent essay on this today.
I don't think Labour are dangerous Casino and I don't think even deep down you really believe it either. They will quite possibly do nothing but the idea Keir Starmer's Labour is a threat to the UK is silly.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
I can't claim any evidence that Rishi is a campaigning god, it's instinctive and based on nothing more than my experience in 1992. The disappointment was horrific, and this election smells like 1992 to me.
Other than that, a good post
Major was different from Rishi; despite being boring he had a sort of charm and genuineness belonging to the style of his background, a background which held things in common with zillions of the general public. He also had a background of Tory achievement to work from, including 11 years of Mrs T. He also faced a Labour leader who had purged the party of the total headbangers, but was still identifiably more socialist than worthy Methodist/social democrat in tone.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
I can't claim any evidence that Rishi is a campaigning god, it's instinctive and based on nothing more than my experience in 1992. The disappointment was horrific, and this election smells like 1992 to me.
Other than that, a good post
There were some polls six weeks out from the 1992 election that had the Tories narrowly ahead of Labour (and others that had Labour narrowly ahead of the Tories). At the moment, Tories are taking comfort from any poll not showing a 20% deficit.
It's reasonable enough to say that there are arguments the Tories won't do as bad as the polling suggests, and that Labour will do a bit worse. But you just lose credibility saying it smells like 1992. It just doesn't - either poll-watching or on the doorsteps.
Sometimes Pete puts the banter posts on, just take it all with a grain of salt. He's a fun chap.
🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
And?
Desperate stuff from Scott & Paste.
Somehow I doubt if Scott Paste is one of the horny-handed sons of toil.
If 16 and 17 year olds were more conservative than average in their voting habits, does anyone think Labour would be proposing to let them vote in elections?
Turkeys don't enfranchise voters for Christmas.
The thing about trying to fix the franchise (Labour on this, Tories in voter ID) is that the result is far from predictable. Ten years from now, Sod’s Law says we’re debating a Tory rising to power on the youth vote, offering choice and freedom against a dying, boring, restrictive Starmer regime.
The cohort theory of voter behaviour would suggest that’s quite possible.
There are 3 main voting cohorts in most countries:
- young voters up to around 30 who may be idealistic, strongly ideological and also often frustrated / rebellious towards the politics of their parents and grandparents. - working age “peak lifers” from 30-60 with the responsibilities of children, mortgages, careers and ageing parents who will vote based on economic performance, quality of services and other pragmatic considerations - retired group voting based on small c conservatism looking to preserve life and culture as they remember it from their youth and concerned about the attitudes of the youngest cohort
We see in much of Europe how the third group’s conservatism leads them to vote for traditional social democratic and liberal parties, while the youth vote goes populist right. I think there’s a children of Blair cohort - literal centrist mums and dads, who will age with the same attitudes and may well stick with Labour especially if the Tories go populist. But their children, the GenZers, are already embracing more radical politics on topics like climate or Palestine, and could be very different from their parents. No reason that won’t include more openness to radical right views once the current centrist dads are elderly.
🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
And?
Desperate stuff from Scott & Paste.
I find the logic a bit bizarre in the assumption if someone comments on a message board they must care about a thing. Especially when Scott has rejected in the past the idea that by pasting a message and link that it indicates his endorsement of that message in its entirety. That is, people have assumed he did, and he rejected that assumption, yet now any disagreement with the message he presents is assumed to mean partisan disagreement (I see no alternative explanation to the insistance people 'care' about the issue, since if they don't care in a partisan sense what other reason would there be to care).
It puts me in mind when people exaggerate the wrongdoing or flaws of an opponent who already has sufficient flaws. Like say people criticised Boris Johnson for some made up quotes, or some mildly off colour joke he made or something.
There'd be plenty of substantive things to criticise him about, and using that kind of thing would undermine actual serious criticisms.
Next time Scott posts a Rishi criticism it'll have less impact on me, because he's jumped up in outrage over such a tiny thing.
At this point Scott and Leon are just as bad as each other. They offer nothing valuable to the site.
I respectably disagree, strongly, on both counts.
They are both part and parcel of what makes the site work well. Immediate transmission of political news. More escoteric topics and discussions.
I don't think we should be pushing regular posters away by criticising their type of content so broadly, as opposed to criticising individual posts or views.
If 16 and 17 year olds were more conservative than average in their voting habits, does anyone think Labour would be proposing to let them vote in elections?
Nobody ever puts forward changes to the franchise unless they’re convinced it will benefit their side.
Pretty much all sides supported reducing the voting age for women from 30 to 21 in 1928.
So tempting...so tempting...the Harry Enfield link is queued up....
Stop Press, ICYMI: The Guardian online is leading on the urgent news that an archbishop has bought slaves in 1758.
Ft Fourth story down, not leading. I expect the descendants of the slaves think it important even if you don't. Dear old Paula's masterclass in Anglican Christianity in action this week adds interest and relevance. And wasn't an awful Tory woman claiming the other day that the country didn't make much money out of slavery? Like saying I sell fentanyl to kids but that's ok because the profit margin is rubbish.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
I can't claim any evidence that Rishi is a campaigning god, it's instinctive and based on nothing more than my experience in 1992. The disappointment was horrific, and this election smells like 1992 to me.
Other than that, a good post
There were some polls six weeks out from the 1992 election that had the Tories narrowly ahead of Labour (and others that had Labour narrowly ahead of the Tories). At the moment, Tories are taking comfort from any poll not showing a 20% deficit.
It's reasonable enough to say that there are arguments the Tories won't do as bad as the polling suggests, and that Labour will do a bit worse. But you just lose credibility saying it smells like 1992. It just doesn't - either poll-watching or on the doorsteps.
To get from here (polls, locals, by-elections) to NOM, there are three possible routes.
A polling fail that means that nobody can ever take polls seriously again.
A nation-defining choke by Labour.
The most brilliant Conservative campaign ever.
You probably need two of those three, and the third already looks out of reach.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
It's time for me to re-post my prediction from yonks back, which I'm sticking to (for comedy value if nothing else): Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25. Lack of enthusiasm for Labour, size of swing required relative to last time, likely collapse of RefUK support, and a low turnout by exhausted and cynical voters (disproportionately impacting, as always, younger cohorts.)
Feel free to laugh when the widely predicted Labour landslide materialises.
Thanks a silly prediction.
Nobody expects the SNP to get 40 seats.
In their last major reversal - 2017 - they managed to hold 35, and that was with the Ruth Davidson Tories doing unexpectedly well.
Labour's main offering is not being the incumbents - there's little identifiable change actually on offer beyond that - and the blue woad brigade have nowhere else to go. The SNP aren't going to collapse.
Several tweets follow this. It is utter meaningless drivel.
I am a huge sceptic of Tory Canada result, but I am beginning to wonder frankly...
You need to get used to it.
The Conservatives are going to fight this.
They are but it doesn't mean they will get anywhere. The idea that the tories are the 'strong and stable' option is not credible. They are now seen as the party of chaos. The only way this strategy can work is if they can make the labour party look dangerous.
Labour are dangerous.
Boris tbf to him wrote an excellent essay on this today.
No, they aren't. This Henny Penny drivel is convincing nobody.
🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
So? What’s your point Scott? Oh, you won’t have one, just endlessly and mindlessly posting other peoples tweets.
"I think [Musk is] really great. No caveats on that."
*** I agree. He is touched with greatness. Lex Fridman has called him "the great maker of our time" and that rings true
He is one of the top ten engineers in history? He's right up there with Tesla, Brunel and Edison etc
This doesn't stop him being a pain in the arse quite a lot of the time; indeed the two might well be linked
Is the basic problem that he can't be cancelled? That is why I think he is hated; he is a threat to the cultural dominance of the left.
Interesting: and maybe
@rcs1000 compared him to JK Rowling on the last thread. She's another person who annoys lefties but cannot be cancelled due to power and wealth
It isn't completely about 'power and wealth' though, both Musk and Rowling are making points with widespread popular support that cannot just be shut down through 'cancellation' anymore; and so are completely reshaping public discourse about various issues, which is massively annoying to some people.
I don't really like Musk because I feel like he thinks he's an expert on everything yet he appears to believe anything he reads online if it fits his preferred politics, plus he likes to act tough then whinge like a crybaby when he faces any kind of consequences (see his pathetic 'F*ck you' comments around Disney, pretending not to care what they did whilst obviously livid), but I think there is something in what you say in that most people or companies would change their tune or at least dial it back if facing the online backlash that he gets, and that probably does enrage people who find they cannot influence what he or his companies do.
Musk's biggest problem is that he's a liar. He'll lie about business: e.g. an automated drive across the USA; or the Tesla robotaxis that should have been all over our cities years ago. He'll lie about the personal: the lie that he never takes holidays, or that his child died in his arms. He is a constant liar.
Musk's biggest advantage is that he has a crowd of followers who slurp up those lies and deny that fact they're lies, or excuse them, or screech "Musk time!". Often because they are trying to ramp investments in Tesla, crypto or just because it's trendy to excuse his lies, like they get some reflected glory.
Musk has achieved two amazing things: but they were very dependent on luck and timing. It very nearly ended badly, particularly back in 2008. He's also slurped up US government largesse - though tbf, a=many rich people manage that.
You are one of the craziest musk-o-phobes on PB. He absolutely triggers you and you are reduced to these absurd allegations “oh he just got lucky twice”
I was a fan of Musk before it was popular - I bet there'll be examples on PB of me praising him a decade or more ago. Then came the Thai nonsense; Vance's hagiography, and I started to realise what he was, and how he operated.
Perhaps you should actually address my points? Do you think he is truthful, or do you think he is a liar?
I don’t care what you think on this other than to find you comical. Sorry
I do agree a little that regarding Muskas boring is a bit odd, but on the other hand you obviously do care what people think on this because you keep asking why people think the way they do on it!
My take on him is please focus on rockets, not being an edgelord. That seems a better use of his talents.
Because it is a genuine pathology. A syndrome. Musk derangement. And the human mind fascinates me and I like to probe it. Also it’s fun to to provoke these loons
Pretty much every techie type person thinks musk is a dick with no competence....people who know little about techie stuff such as journalists think he is a genius....his only competence was hiring people to do stuff that he knew nothing about.
When I first look at Elon Musk, one of the richest men in the world and the owner of Tesla, Starlink, and TwitterX, a cofounder of OpenAI AND PayPal, and probably the greatest engineer of the 21st century to date, I immediately think “god he’s stupid, what a thickie” and also “yawn, so boring”
Yes but what has it to do with pb?
If you were to write about TwiX carrying videos for political parties and pressure groups, or TwiX bot farms being used to disrupt the democratic process, that would be interesting. You could talk about Elon ending moderation and fact-checking, or censorship. You could explain why my own TwiX account, on which I've never posted, liked or retweeted, picks up a new follower each day, because that's not suspicious.
But not yet another outing for irrelevant, question-begging claptrap about how hard done by Musk is.
If 16 and 17 year olds were more conservative than average in their voting habits, does anyone think Labour would be proposing to let them vote in elections?
Turkeys don't enfranchise voters for Christmas.
The thing about trying to fix the franchise (Labour on this, Tories in voter ID) is that the result is far from predictable. Ten years from now, Sod’s Law says we’re debating a Tory rising to power on the youth vote, offering choice and freedom against a dying, boring, restrictive Starmer regime.
The cohort theory of voter behaviour would suggest that’s quite possible.
There are 3 main voting cohorts in most countries:
- young voters up to around 30 who may be idealistic, strongly ideological and also often frustrated / rebellious towards the politics of their parents and grandparents. - working age “peak lifers” from 30-60 with the responsibilities of children, mortgages, careers and ageing parents who will vote based on economic performance, quality of services and other pragmatic considerations - retired group voting based on small c conservatism looking to preserve life and culture as they remember it from their youth and concerned about the attitudes of the youngest cohort
We see in much of Europe how the third group’s conservatism leads them to vote for traditional social democratic and liberal parties, while the youth vote goes populist right. I think there’s a children of Blair cohort - literal centrist mums and dads, who will age with the same attitudes and may well stick with Labour especially if the Tories go populist. But their children, the GenZers, are already embracing more radical politics on topics like climate or Palestine, and could be very different from their parents. No reason that won’t include more openness to radical right views once the current centrist dads are elderly.
So if you want a second house at all abolish HoL and replace with a house of 300, 100 being elected by each cohort.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
The Liberal Democrats could do badly in the SW but well in Surrey and the Thames Valley and thus still end up with 40 seats.
It could be patchy.
I can't see a way Labour fall short of a majority.
My expectation for a while has been the opposite, that the Lib Dems outperform expectations in their old lands in the SW, but disappoint in the blue wall. This could be the election where Labour stakes a proper claim to the rural and commuter belt South.
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
@Telegraph 🔵 The Tory party has been threatened with legal action amid claims that “Stalinist” Rishi Sunak is blocking pro-Boris candidates from standing as MPs
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
I can't claim any evidence that Rishi is a campaigning god, it's instinctive and based on nothing more than my experience in 1992. The disappointment was horrific, and this election smells like 1992 to me.
Other than that, a good post
There were some polls six weeks out from the 1992 election that had the Tories narrowly ahead of Labour (and others that had Labour narrowly ahead of the Tories). At the moment, Tories are taking comfort from any poll not showing a 20% deficit.
It's reasonable enough to say that there are arguments the Tories won't do as bad as the polling suggests, and that Labour will do a bit worse. But you just lose credibility saying it smells like 1992. It just doesn't - either poll-watching or on the doorsteps.
To get from here (polls, locals, by-elections) to NOM, there are three possible routes.
A polling fail that means that nobody can ever take polls seriously again.
A nation-defining choke by Labour.
The most brilliant Conservative campaign ever.
You probably need two of those three, and the third already looks out of reach.
In my lifetime, almost every campaign from both major parties has been called dreadful until after the fact, when it’s called genius, recently because of some magical social media campaign most of us never saw, as an excuse for the earlier assessment.
Exclusive @Telegraph: Galloway's party has had to ditch a candidate because of antisemitism.
Hassan Chahine shared a video that said a “coven of Jews” had “seized” control of the US and that Jews have been punished through history for “killing Jesus"
Several tweets follow this. It is utter meaningless drivel.
I am a huge sceptic of Tory Canada result, but I am beginning to wonder frankly...
You need to get used to it.
The Conservatives are going to fight this.
They are but it doesn't mean they will get anywhere. The idea that the tories are the 'strong and stable' option is not credible. They are now seen as the party of chaos. The only way this strategy can work is if they can make the labour party look dangerous.
Labour are dangerous.
Boris tbf to him wrote an excellent essay on this today.
No, they aren't. This Henny Penny drivel is convincing nobody.
Labour are potentially dangerous, but only to the extent that they achieve bugger all and are turfed out in favour of a bunch of hard right nutcases another five years down the road. Time will tell.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
I can't claim any evidence that Rishi is a campaigning god, it's instinctive and based on nothing more than my experience in 1992. The disappointment was horrific, and this election smells like 1992 to me.
Other than that, a good post
There were some polls six weeks out from the 1992 election that had the Tories narrowly ahead of Labour (and others that had Labour narrowly ahead of the Tories). At the moment, Tories are taking comfort from any poll not showing a 20% deficit.
It's reasonable enough to say that there are arguments the Tories won't do as bad as the polling suggests, and that Labour will do a bit worse. But you just lose credibility saying it smells like 1992. It just doesn't - either poll-watching or on the doorsteps.
To get from here (polls, locals, by-elections) to NOM, there are three possible routes.
A polling fail that means that nobody can ever take polls seriously again.
A nation-defining choke by Labour.
The most brilliant Conservative campaign ever.
You probably need two of those three, and the third already looks out of reach.
Overlapping with this you need, and might get, a large switch from Reform to Tory and a similar switch from Don't Know to Tory. 2019 Tory voters are the key group. 38% of them (YouGov latest) are either for Reform or DK at the moment. This group is gigantic - it is millions of voters - and I imagine the Tory campaign is aimed mostly at them.
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
It's time for me to re-post my prediction from yonks back, which I'm sticking to (for comedy value if nothing else): Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25. Lack of enthusiasm for Labour, size of swing required relative to last time, likely collapse of RefUK support, and a low turnout by exhausted and cynical voters (disproportionately impacting, as always, younger cohorts.)
Feel free to laugh when the widely predicted Labour landslide materialises.
Thanks a silly prediction.
Nobody expects the SNP to get 40 seats.
In their last major reversal - 2017 - they managed to hold 35, and that was with the Ruth Davidson Tories doing unexpectedly well.
Labour's main offering is not being the incumbents - there's little identifiable change actually on offer beyond that - and the blue woad brigade have nowhere else to go. The SNP aren't going to collapse.
The SNP had a 10% lead over Labour in that election, and 8% over the Tories. They had money to burn on the campaign. Now Labour have a 10% lead over them (well, in one poll - but it looks like they have a lead anyway) and they don't have a pot to piss in.
So I don't see how they do better than 2017. They won't necessarily face wipeout, but I don't quite understand where you get 40 seats for them from.
@Telegraph 🔵 The Tory party has been threatened with legal action amid claims that “Stalinist” Rishi Sunak is blocking pro-Boris candidates from standing as MPs
As so many Tory MPs have stood down in the last few days after Sunak called the general election, CCHQ can now impose 3 candidates for each Association whose MP is standing down to choose from at a Special General Meeting in the next week or 2 to pick the next Conservative parliamentary candidate. Rather than allowing Associations to pick their shortlist from the approved candidates list as they could do before the election was called. Clearly under Rishi CCHQ will likely reward loyalists to him in terms of who it picks for those final 3 more than ex Boris and ex Truss supporters.
That in turn may impact the post election leadership contest (assuming Rishi loses and resigns) if some of those Sunak loyalist centrists hold those seats for the Tories as Tory MPs will still pick the final 2 for next leader in Opposition that members get to choose from
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
I can't claim any evidence that Rishi is a campaigning god, it's instinctive and based on nothing more than my experience in 1992. The disappointment was horrific, and this election smells like 1992 to me.
Other than that, a good post
There were some polls six weeks out from the 1992 election that had the Tories narrowly ahead of Labour (and others that had Labour narrowly ahead of the Tories). At the moment, Tories are taking comfort from any poll not showing a 20% deficit.
It's reasonable enough to say that there are arguments the Tories won't do as bad as the polling suggests, and that Labour will do a bit worse. But you just lose credibility saying it smells like 1992. It just doesn't - either poll-watching or on the doorsteps.
To get from here (polls, locals, by-elections) to NOM, there are three possible routes.
A polling fail that means that nobody can ever take polls seriously again.
A nation-defining choke by Labour.
The most brilliant Conservative campaign ever.
You probably need two of those three, and the third already looks out of reach.
Overlapping with this you need, and might get, a large switch from Reform to Tory and a similar switch from Don't Know to Tory. 2019 Tory voters are the key group. 38% of them (YouGov latest) are either for Reform or DK at the moment. This group is gigantic - it is millions of voters - and I imagine the Tory campaign is aimed mostly at them.
They are who most of us who think it will narrow are assuming will do it. Of course they all may just not vote and turnout might go back down.
Not really. A Con-LD marginal. One so marginal that it's likely to flip, granted, but more broadly the Tories' best chance of avoiding a wipeout is to tell MPs in the red wall gains to look to their own defences and try to hold as much as possible of the traditional Southern English heartland.
The Conservative Party is a lobby group for well-to-do owner-occupiers of heavily overpriced houses, aged about 50 upwards. Given the parlous state to which it has been reduced, there's precious little point in doing anything other than trying to shore up this core vote - if they can. It's a tribute to how dreadful Sunak is at politics that he allowed Hunt to cut NI rather than income tax.
Getting rid of NI is in the long term interests of the country. A part of the road to equalising taxation on all income.
I agree. It's essentially just another income tax, only with different rules and thresholds. And ER NICs are even worse - a pure tax on jobs!
But the Tories failed quite spectacularly to prepare the ground.
Sunak, as chancellor, had raised EE NICs by 1.25p in advance of the (later abandoned) Health & Social Care Levy. Kwarteng then reversed this, and then Hunt announced a further 2p cut. Finally, Hunt announced the plan to abolish them, together with another 2p cut.
At no time during any of that chaos did they try to explain to people what NICs are actually for. Many older people genuinely seem to be under the impression that they're payments into a pension fund - it's hard to see how that's come about as it's never been government policy (indeed, the state pension was introduced the year before National Insurance!), but it really does appear to be a widespread belief.
So we've had three NICs cuts in a row, which is enough to piss pensioners off all by itself - "why aren't we getting a tax cut too???". But if a large proportion of pensioners believe that Hunt's plan means that their pension will vanish, then it's easy to see why it's become so toxic.
All that was needed was a bit of advance publicity, and some investment in financial education. Bu they failed to do it, and have likely poisoned the issue for the next decade at least.
You have to pay your "stamp" in order to get your pension. Therefore it is not unreasonable to think that what you pay in is what you then get back out.
@Telegraph 🔵 The Tory party has been threatened with legal action amid claims that “Stalinist” Rishi Sunak is blocking pro-Boris candidates from standing as MPs
As so many Tory MPs have stood down in the last few days after Sunak called the general election, CCHQ can now impose 3 candidates for each Association whose MP is standing down to choose from at a Special General Meeting in the next week or 2 to pick the next Conservative parliamentary candidate. Rather than allowing Associations to pick their shortlist as they could do before the election was called. Clearly under Rishi CCHQ will likely reward loyalists to him in terms of who it picks for those final 3 more than ex Boris and ex Truss supporters
They say they will seek an injunction “for as long as it takes” to resolve the issues around selection after a series of key figures involved in the “Bring Back Boris” campaign were barred from standing as a Tory MP.
Poll ramping really annoys me. It's usually not as advertised and just a way of getting attention.
It probably just shows the Tories getting heavily thumped, as usual, which isn't news.
See below, it's a 14 point lead
So why on earth was that ramped?
That's MoE, not news.
Waiting to see if they've dropped the DK dividend as we enter the campaign but on same method, yeah its a small movement. Lowest lead since 4 March though with anyone is the 'stat takeaway'
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
So? What’s your point Scott? Oh, you won’t have one, just endlessly and mindlessly posting other peoples tweets.
I don’t think it’s very decent of you (mostly right-wingers) to pile in on @Scott_xP . I know you are angry about how things are going but it’s not very edifying. There are ways of putting things that are a little more polite and friendly.
Whilst some of the cut and pastes may have very little relevance, this one that you seem to have singled out is an obvious example of how out of touch Rishi Sunak is with the people. Should he have to travel by train or bus everywhere? Maybe not but he’s not doing a lot to show he’s a man of the people, is he? Quite aside from the ineptitude, dressing up councillors in high vis jackets to make them look like employees is beyond crass. It’s all part of the impression he creates of a mega-rich multi millionaire who hasn’t got a scoobies about the people who live underneath his flight paths.
If 16 and 17 year olds were more conservative than average in their voting habits, does anyone think Labour would be proposing to let them vote in elections?
Turkeys don't enfranchise voters for Christmas.
The thing about trying to fix the franchise (Labour on this, Tories in voter ID) is that the result is far from predictable. Ten years from now, Sod’s Law says we’re debating a Tory rising to power on the youth vote, offering choice and freedom against a dying, boring, restrictive Starmer regime.
The cohort theory of voter behaviour would suggest that’s quite possible.
There are 3 main voting cohorts in most countries:
- young voters up to around 30 who may be idealistic, strongly ideological and also often frustrated / rebellious towards the politics of their parents and grandparents. - working age “peak lifers” from 30-60 with the responsibilities of children, mortgages, careers and ageing parents who will vote based on economic performance, quality of services and other pragmatic considerations - retired group voting based on small c conservatism looking to preserve life and culture as they remember it from their youth and concerned about the attitudes of the youngest cohort
We see in much of Europe how the third group’s conservatism leads them to vote for traditional social democratic and liberal parties, while the youth vote goes populist right. I think there’s a children of Blair cohort - literal centrist mums and dads, who will age with the same attitudes and may well stick with Labour especially if the Tories go populist. But their children, the GenZers, are already embracing more radical politics on topics like climate or Palestine, and could be very different from their parents. No reason that won’t include more openness to radical right views once the current centrist dads are elderly.
But the GenZers are not embracing more radical right-wing politics on topics like climate or Palestine. They’re embracing left-wing answers.
🚁 NEW 🚁 Flight logs appear to show Rishi Sunak used a Tory donor’s helicopter to travel from his Yorkshire home to campaign in South London this afternoon 👇
And?
Desperate stuff from Scott & Paste.
I beg to differ. He's getting under the skin of the PB Tories. It is looking like a successful campaign from where I'm sitting.
Exclusive @Telegraph: Galloway's party has had to ditch a candidate because of antisemitism.
Hassan Chahine shared a video that said a “coven of Jews” had “seized” control of the US and that Jews have been punished through history for “killing Jesus"
When they say the candidate has been ditched "because of antisemitism" does that mean they were too antisemitic for Galloway's mob or not antisemitic enough? They really ought to make it clear.
Adding minor party changes from the last poll that Opinium is LLG-1, RefCon+2 (and presumably rounding -1).
LLG 58 vs RefCon 37
One of the highest RefCon scores of any pollsters but in the pack for LLG.
Worth bearing in mind we get 1-2% regularly saying “UKIP” to pollsters. I expect with the election coverage that will shift to Reform, holding them up a big while at the same time Ref ship some votes back to the Tories.
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.
It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
Full fathom five thy father lies; Of his bones are coral made; Those are pearls that were his eyes: Nothing of him that doth fade, But doth suffer a sea-change Into something rich and strange. Sea-nymphs hourly ring his knell: Ding-dong. Hark! now I hear them,—ding-dong, bell.
I keep making what I think is the very good joke that Rishi is already rich and strange. And getting no plaudits. So above is the original context (from The Tempest by prominent England playwright Wilhelm Shagsper)
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
@Telegraph 🔵 The Tory party has been threatened with legal action amid claims that “Stalinist” Rishi Sunak is blocking pro-Boris candidates from standing as MPs
As so many Tory MPs have stood down in the last few days after Sunak called the general election, CCHQ can now impose 3 candidates for each Association whose MP is standing down to choose from at a Special General Meeting in the next week or 2 to pick the next Conservative parliamentary candidate. Rather than allowing Associations to pick their shortlist as they could do before the election was called. Clearly under Rishi CCHQ will likely reward loyalists to him in terms of who it picks for those final 3 more than ex Boris and ex Truss supporters
They say they will seek an injunction “for as long as it takes” to resolve the issues around selection after a series of key figures involved in the “Bring Back Boris” campaign were barred from standing as a Tory MP.
'For as long as it takes'? The thought that courts will interfere with the statutory timetable for general elections to sort this is fanciful. Ultimately the court/law issue will be that no-one is barred from standing in an election simply because the procedures of a party stop them being their candidate. So go away. Ask Jezza.
Lowering the voting age to 16 was in the 2015, 2017 & 2019 manifestos, so not really a big surprise that it will be in this one.
I assume they are also planning on correspondingly lowering the age for Jury Service, buying alcohol, entering into contracts, driving and serving on the front line in the armed forces? Voting is just as important as all these things so it is hypocritical to argue that that one aspect of adulthood should be changed but not the others.
Oh and I would also expect them to end the compulsion to remain in education until 18. After all why should the Government be forcing adults to stay in education against their will?
I disagree with those who say that there should be a consistent bright line divide between childhood and adulthood - that simply doesn't reflect the messy nature of reality. Besides, we've never had a single age for any of this, have we?
Driving, for instance - it's 13 for farms, 16 for people in receipt of the mobility component of PIP, 17 for everyone else.
Alcohol is legal at 5(!) to drink at home, 14 when accompanied by an adult in a bar or restaurant, 16 to be able to serve or sell alcohol, or 18 to buy it alone.
The Armed Forces recruit at 16 for full-time roles, but 18 for reservists.
The agent of consent generally is 16, but sexual activity between 13-15 year olds is usually treated less seriously. It's illegal for an adult in a position of trust to have sex with someone under 18.
Some contracts are voidable if one of the parties is under 18 - but if it's something like for terms of use, then it's 13 instead.
So, similarly, it might be reasonable to argue for a voting age of 13 for councils or referendums, 16 for parliaments, mayors, or assemblies, and 18 to be able to stand for election.
If 16 and 17 year olds were more conservative than average in their voting habits, does anyone think Labour would be proposing to let them vote in elections?
Turkeys don't enfranchise voters for Christmas.
The thing about trying to fix the franchise (Labour on this, Tories in voter ID) is that the result is far from predictable. Ten years from now, Sod’s Law says we’re debating a Tory rising to power on the youth vote, offering choice and freedom against a dying, boring, restrictive Starmer regime.
The cohort theory of voter behaviour would suggest that’s quite possible.
There are 3 main voting cohorts in most countries:
- young voters up to around 30 who may be idealistic, strongly ideological and also often frustrated / rebellious towards the politics of their parents and grandparents. - working age “peak lifers” from 30-60 with the responsibilities of children, mortgages, careers and ageing parents who will vote based on economic performance, quality of services and other pragmatic considerations - retired group voting based on small c conservatism looking to preserve life and culture as they remember it from their youth and concerned about the attitudes of the youngest cohort
We see in much of Europe how the third group’s conservatism leads them to vote for traditional social democratic and liberal parties, while the youth vote goes populist right. I think there’s a children of Blair cohort - literal centrist mums and dads, who will age with the same attitudes and may well stick with Labour especially if the Tories go populist. But their children, the GenZers, are already embracing more radical politics on topics like climate or Palestine, and could be very different from their parents. No reason that won’t include more openness to radical right views once the current centrist dads are elderly.
But the GenZers are not embracing more radical right-wing politics on topics like climate or Palestine. They’re embracing left-wing answers.
The point is they are embracing authoritarian ideologies and in some cases outright intolerance. They’re much less interested in compromise or consent. That means the horseshoe is primed and ready.
A good quote at the foot of a Sky News page with the Jim Callaghan quote that you will all know by now.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
Now its cut and paste from 50 years ago.
It’s a very good quote and an astute observation by Jim Callaghan. Which is a little more than can be said for your intemperate one liner. Think before posting. Make it meaningful. And try to control your temper.
Why madam I was congratulating you. Its the first cut and paste post Ive seen from before the internet was invented.
Adding minor party changes from the last poll that Opinium is LLG-1, RefCon+2 (and presumably rounding -1).
LLG 58 vs RefCon 37
One of the highest RefCon scores of any pollsters but in the pack for LLG.
Worth bearing in mind we get 1-2% regularly saying “UKIP” to pollsters. I expect with the election coverage that will shift to Reform, holding them up a big while at the same time Ref ship some votes back to the Tories.
Deltapoll are the only ones finding UKIP as they still prompt them, usually 1%, everyone else gets about as many kippers as WeP etc
It is genuinely baffling that Rishi seems to be repeating the 2017 May campaign.
I think we’re underestimating him. There are going to be surprising pockets of strong Tory support. I’ve been chatting to @Mexicanpete about this. Plenty of evidence:
- Devon and the rest of thf Southwest is proving very resilient based on @MarqueeMark casual interactions while leafletting. Disgust for Davey’s behaviour on the PO scandal in stark contrast to the faultless record of all Tory post office ministers since means that region is nailed on. That’s led him to make his confident prediction of Labour 1 short of a majority with Corbyn holding the balance of power - We already know outer London is sticking Tory due to ULEZ and hatred of Khan - Wales will punish the incumbents, who have infuriated the entire nation with their 20mph limits, meaning Labour will badly underperform - All seats with large Hindu populations are secure - The collapse of the SNP opens up opportunities in Scotland
Hung parliament.
It's time for me to re-post my prediction from yonks back, which I'm sticking to (for comedy value if nothing else): Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25. Lack of enthusiasm for Labour, size of swing required relative to last time, likely collapse of RefUK support, and a low turnout by exhausted and cynical voters (disproportionately impacting, as always, younger cohorts.)
Feel free to laugh when the widely predicted Labour landslide materialises.
Thanks a silly prediction.
Nobody expects the SNP to get 40 seats.
In their last major reversal - 2017 - they managed to hold 35, and that was with the Ruth Davidson Tories doing unexpectedly well.
Labour's main offering is not being the incumbents - there's little identifiable change actually on offer beyond that - and the blue woad brigade have nowhere else to go. The SNP aren't going to collapse.
The SNP had a 10% lead over Labour in that election, and 8% over the Tories. They had money to burn on the campaign. Now Labour have a 10% lead over them (well, in one poll - but it looks like they have a lead anyway) and they don't have a pot to piss in.
So I don't see how they do better than 2017. They won't necessarily face wipeout, but I don't quite understand where you get 40 seats for them from.
Partly scepticism about Labour progress and partly, to be frank, that I'm working in round-ish numbers. If the result ends up as something like Lab 310, Con 250, SNP 35, LD 30 then I'll still feel pretty satisfied. Though I'll most likely be miles out, of course.
The guessing game is just a bit of fun. This particular change election is unlikely to result in much change beyond the name plates on the doors of ministerial offices, so I'm not that bothered about the actual outcome.
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
If 16 and 17 year olds were more conservative than average in their voting habits, does anyone think Labour would be proposing to let them vote in elections?
Turkeys don't enfranchise voters for Christmas.
The thing about trying to fix the franchise (Labour on this, Tories in voter ID) is that the result is far from predictable. Ten years from now, Sod’s Law says we’re debating a Tory rising to power on the youth vote, offering choice and freedom against a dying, boring, restrictive Starmer regime.
The cohort theory of voter behaviour would suggest that’s quite possible.
There are 3 main voting cohorts in most countries:
- young voters up to around 30 who may be idealistic, strongly ideological and also often frustrated / rebellious towards the politics of their parents and grandparents. - working age “peak lifers” from 30-60 with the responsibilities of children, mortgages, careers and ageing parents who will vote based on economic performance, quality of services and other pragmatic considerations - retired group voting based on small c conservatism looking to preserve life and culture as they remember it from their youth and concerned about the attitudes of the youngest cohort
We see in much of Europe how the third group’s conservatism leads them to vote for traditional social democratic and liberal parties, while the youth vote goes populist right. I think there’s a children of Blair cohort - literal centrist mums and dads, who will age with the same attitudes and may well stick with Labour especially if the Tories go populist. But their children, the GenZers, are already embracing more radical politics on topics like climate or Palestine, and could be very different from their parents. No reason that won’t include more openness to radical right views once the current centrist dads are elderly.
But the GenZers are not embracing more radical right-wing politics on topics like climate or Palestine. They’re embracing left-wing answers.
I think it’s more complex than that.
1) Being anti-Israel is more about siding with the under-dog for many, absent the touch point of WW2 and giving Israel a bit of a pass, and absent a clear memory of 9/11 and 7/7.
2) The apparent strong line on climate is often skin deep and includes the invisible caveat “so long as it doesn’t affect me”.
If you look at their approach to the gig economy/side hussles then it’s all very Del Boy. And they love choice and competition.
Thank you all for the responses. Millets/North Face look good, and - surprisingly - TK Maxx looked even better. And yes, I'm not snobbish about charity shops either. But due to a certain amount of time-criticality it will be either M&S or Next. Will let you know how it goes.
Under £8 in the sale. Machine washable. It's awful but it's very utilitarian. Just two pockets but I can sew the internal flaps to build a paperback sized pocket. I have shopped efficiently!
Man of the People Richi, chatting to his mates in the local spoons this morning before (checks notes) climbing into his millionaire mate's helicopter for a lift back to London...
Yep, nothing to see here. Move on, lads.
I've been plenty brutal on Rishi, yet you seem to assume any dissenting voices on these issues must be trying to bolster him somehow. That is plainly not the case.
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
He should have got the national express coach back to London. Now thats man of the people.
A Conservative member I know, not my Surrey friend, has never been on a bus.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
I think you mean omnibus. Let's have some standards.
Comments
Your premise seems to be that a politician doing anything that is not 'man of the people' like will be toxic with the public.
Now, Rishi is very unpopular so people will judge him harshly for a lot of things they might not with someone more popular. But I think you do the public a disservice on this one. He also has bodyguards and people drive him about, is that also toxic with the public as it is not very man of the people?
Other than that, a good post
So will be VERY interesting to see how this plays out.
Ready for the first Mega Polling Saturday of the 2024 general election!
But the Tories failed quite spectacularly to prepare the ground.
Sunak, as chancellor, had raised EE NICs by 1.25p in advance of the (later abandoned) Health & Social Care Levy. Kwarteng then reversed this, and then Hunt announced a further 2p cut. Finally, Hunt announced the plan to abolish them, together with another 2p cut.
At no time during any of that chaos did they try to explain to people what NICs are actually for. Many older people genuinely seem to be under the impression that they're payments into a pension fund - it's hard to see how that's come about as it's never been government policy (indeed, the state pension was introduced the year before National Insurance!), but it really does appear to be a widespread belief.
So we've had three NICs cuts in a row, which is enough to piss pensioners off all by itself - "why aren't we getting a tax cut too???". But if a large proportion of pensioners believe that Hunt's plan means that their pension will vanish, then it's easy to see why it's become so toxic.
All that was needed was a bit of advance publicity, and some investment in financial education. Bu they failed to do it, and have likely poisoned the issue for the next decade at least.
Has Ed Davey resigned yet?
Feel free to laugh when the widely predicted Labour landslide materialises.
Exclusive @Telegraph: Galloway's party has had to ditch a candidate because of antisemitism.
Hassan Chahine shared a video that said a “coven of Jews” had “seized” control of the US and that Jews have been punished through history for “killing Jesus"
https://twitter.com/whazell/status/1794429480628322800
I responded to your post so I 'care' about it by your terms. But in what way do I care? I'm not going to vote Tory at this election, I assure you of that. So when I respond what am I caring about?
Not Rishi's reputation, as I don't want him to PM. Not the Tory reputation, as I don't want them to be in government after this election. BatteryCorrectHorse says they don't care, do you really think they give a sh*t about Rishi and the Tories?
So I'm fascinated to understand what you think I care about on this issue. What is it you think I am trying to accomplish by indicating I don't think the PM using a donor helicopter is important?
Because it seems like what you are saying is people are liars and you know their minds better than they do themselves.
When in fact the simplest answer is of course I care in the sense I responded to a post, but why does that signify something deeper in your eyes, and what does it signify when non-Tories are responding to it?
Not that their candidate is a racist, but that they've ditched him.
Will Jennings
@drjennings
·
46m
Just sat here with a g & t waiting for Opinium.
Nobody expects the SNP to get 40 seats.
Pretty much NOT what you'd call sympathy vote. Instead, an electoral Kiss of Death.
It could be patchy.
I can't see a way Labour fall short of a majority.
https://x.com/CWP_Weir/status/1794057243991667182
I am going with reduced Labour lead.
Boris tbf to him wrote an excellent essay on this today.
It's reasonable enough to say that there are arguments the Tories won't do as bad as the polling suggests, and that Labour will do a bit worse. But you just lose credibility saying it smells like 1992. It just doesn't - either poll-watching or on the doorsteps.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-69056052
from the picture, he was quite near hitting a bungalow...
Opinium
LAB 41 (-2)
CON 27 (+2)
Ref 10
Ld 10
Green 7
There are 3 main voting cohorts in most countries:
- young voters up to around 30 who may be idealistic, strongly ideological and also often frustrated / rebellious towards the politics of their parents and grandparents.
- working age “peak lifers” from 30-60 with the responsibilities of children, mortgages, careers and ageing parents who will vote based on economic performance, quality of services and other pragmatic considerations
- retired group voting based on small c conservatism looking to preserve life and culture as they remember it from their youth and concerned about the attitudes of the youngest cohort
We see in much of Europe how the third group’s conservatism leads them to vote for traditional social democratic and liberal parties, while the youth vote goes populist right. I think there’s a children of Blair cohort - literal centrist mums and dads, who will age with the same attitudes and may well stick with Labour especially if the Tories go populist. But their children, the GenZers, are already embracing more radical politics on topics like climate or Palestine, and could be very different from their parents. No reason that won’t include more openness to radical right views once the current centrist dads are elderly.
It probably just shows the Tories getting heavily thumped, as usual, which isn't news.
It puts me in mind when people exaggerate the wrongdoing or flaws of an opponent who already has sufficient flaws. Like say people criticised Boris Johnson for some made up quotes, or some mildly off colour joke he made or something.
There'd be plenty of substantive things to criticise him about, and using that kind of thing would undermine actual serious criticisms.
Next time Scott posts a Rishi criticism it'll have less impact on me, because he's jumped up in outrage over such a tiny thing.
They are both part and parcel of what makes the site work well. Immediate transmission of political news. More escoteric topics and discussions.
I don't think we should be pushing regular posters away by criticising their type of content so broadly, as opposed to criticising individual posts or views.
L is for Labour...
Fourth story down, not leading. I expect the descendants of the slaves think it important even if you don't. Dear old Paula's masterclass in Anglican Christianity in action this week adds interest and relevance. And wasn't an awful Tory woman claiming the other day that the country didn't make much money out of slavery? Like saying I sell fentanyl to kids but that's ok because the profit margin is rubbish.
It feels too early for Tory “non-decided” voters to come back (which is part of why I think they get 33-35% in the end).
YouGov don't appear to have changed their Q yet from earlier
A polling fail that means that nobody can ever take polls seriously again.
A nation-defining choke by Labour.
The most brilliant Conservative campaign ever.
You probably need two of those three, and the third already looks out of reach.
Labour's main offering is not being the incumbents - there's little identifiable change actually on offer beyond that - and the blue woad brigade have nowhere else to go. The SNP aren't going to collapse.
Just call me Nostradamus.
If you were to write about TwiX carrying videos for political parties and pressure groups, or TwiX bot farms being used to disrupt the democratic process, that would be interesting. You could talk about Elon ending moderation and fact-checking, or censorship. You could explain why my own TwiX account, on which I've never posted, liked or retweeted, picks up a new follower each day, because that's not suspicious.
But not yet another outing for irrelevant, question-begging claptrap about how hard done by Musk is.
That's MoE, not news.
"You know there are times, perhaps once every 30 years, when there is a sea-change in politics," avuncular "Sunny Jim" observed shrewdly to his close aide Bernard Donoughue.
"It then doesn't matter what you say or do. There's a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea-change - and it is for Mrs Thatcher.”
The salient part I suggest is that it doesn’t matter what you say or do.
That’s this campaign imho. It’s a sea-change election and the country is ready to move on from this iteration of Conservatism.
🔵 The Tory party has been threatened with legal action amid claims that “Stalinist” Rishi Sunak is blocking pro-Boris candidates from standing as MPs
So I don't see how they do better than 2017. They won't necessarily face wipeout, but I don't quite understand where you get 40 seats for them from.
That in turn may impact the post election leadership contest (assuming Rishi loses and resigns) if some of those Sunak loyalist centrists hold those seats for the Tories as Tory MPs will still pick the final 2 for next leader in Opposition that members get to choose from
Wrong, but not unreasonable.
They say they will seek an injunction “for as long as it takes” to resolve the issues around selection after a series of key figures involved in the “Bring Back Boris” campaign were barred from standing as a Tory MP.
Whilst some of the cut and pastes may have very little relevance, this one that you seem to have singled out is an obvious example of how out of touch Rishi Sunak is with the people. Should he have to travel by train or bus everywhere? Maybe not but he’s not doing a lot to show he’s a man of the people, is he? Quite aside from the ineptitude, dressing up councillors in high vis jackets to make them look like employees is beyond crass. It’s all part of the impression he creates of a mega-rich multi millionaire who hasn’t got a scoobies about the people who live underneath his flight paths.
LLG 58 vs RefCon 37
One of the highest RefCon scores of any pollsters but in the pack for LLG.
Worth bearing in mind we get 1-2% regularly saying “UKIP” to pollsters. I expect with the election coverage that will shift to Reform, holding them up a big while at the same time Ref ship some votes back to the Tories.
Of his bones are coral made;
Those are pearls that were his eyes:
Nothing of him that doth fade,
But doth suffer a sea-change
Into something rich and strange.
Sea-nymphs hourly ring his knell:
Ding-dong.
Hark! now I hear them,—ding-dong, bell.
I keep making what I think is the very good joke that Rishi is already rich and strange. And getting no plaudits. So above is the original context (from The Tempest by prominent England playwright Wilhelm Shagsper)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=27&LAB=41&LIB=10&Reform=10&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14.7&SCOTLAB=37.1&SCOTLIB=7.7&SCOTReform=3.5&SCOTGreen=3.8&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=30.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Driving, for instance - it's 13 for farms, 16 for people in receipt of the mobility component of PIP, 17 for everyone else.
Alcohol is legal at 5(!) to drink at home, 14 when accompanied by an adult in a bar or restaurant, 16 to be able to serve or sell alcohol, or 18 to buy it alone.
The Armed Forces recruit at 16 for full-time roles, but 18 for reservists.
The agent of consent generally is 16, but sexual activity between 13-15 year olds is usually treated less seriously. It's illegal for an adult in a position of trust to have sex with someone under 18.
Some contracts are voidable if one of the parties is under 18 - but if it's something like for terms of use, then it's 13 instead.
So, similarly, it might be reasonable to argue for a voting age of 13 for councils or referendums, 16 for parliaments, mayors, or assemblies, and 18 to be able to stand for election.
The guessing game is just a bit of fun. This particular change election is unlikely to result in much change beyond the name plates on the doors of ministerial offices, so I'm not that bothered about the actual outcome.
And, yes, he’s hopelessly out of touch imho.
No consistent pattern yet emerging.
1) Being anti-Israel is more about siding with the under-dog for many, absent the touch point of WW2 and giving Israel a bit of a pass, and absent a clear memory of 9/11 and 7/7.
2) The apparent strong line on climate is often skin deep and includes the invisible caveat “so long as it doesn’t affect me”.
If you look at their approach to the gig economy/side hussles then it’s all very Del Boy. And they love choice and competition.
Under £8 in the sale. Machine washable. It's awful but it's very utilitarian. Just two pockets but I can sew the internal flaps to build a paperback sized pocket. I have shopped efficiently!