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Brexiteers, you may need a stiff drink – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,815
    edited July 2023

    Brexit was a lie perpetrated by Boris.

    No, Brexit is unfortunately real.

    Boris Johnson and particularly Team Farage perpetuated lies to ensure "leave" prevailed at the EURef.

    Edit. Although in Johnson's case he didn't realise his lies would take it over the line. The last thing he wanted. But it got him into Downing Street, so what the Hell?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,898
    Miklosvar said:

    Let's try to understand the difference between "equally" and "more".
    Doing a stupid thing for the first time is stupid
    Doing a stupid thing for the second time is more stupid
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,339

    Brexit was a lie perpetrated by Boris.

    "He was deceived by a lie, we all were."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,359

    "He was deceived by a lie, we all were."
    Only 52%...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,133
    kjh said:

    He is certainly going to do that. He might not like what the historians say though.
    Tough. There are loads of stories of people being granted their wish and regretting it because they don't get their wish in the way they imagined.

    If Boris had been paying attention during his classics degree, he might have heard of some of them.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,985

    No Brexit is unfortunately real.

    Boris Johnson and particularly Team Farage perpetuated lies to ensure "leave" prevailed at the EURef.
    You knew what I meant.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,298

    It’s true in my company.
    As I said earlier, atypical.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202
    maxh said:

    And yet, perhaps Richard’s version of Brexit might actually Great anecdotes- I’d never heard those.

    My views are coloured by spending my honeymoon there, but I couldn’t get over the fact that there were no chain stores of any real description outside Oslo, you’d turn up in a small town to find only one restaurant that served exquisite food, and wild camping was positively encouraged.

    There was also a very healthy distaste of braggadocio and narcissism amongst the Norwegians I got to know.

    Perhaps it’s the place that has done communism properly?

    ETA: sorry for messing up blockquotes!
    There was also a very healthy distaste of braggadocio and narcissism amongst the Norwegians I got to know.

    And yet PB’s very own Alan bloody Whicker doesn’t rate Norway. How odd.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,213
    Here's an article for those wondering about who would want to be born in the United States. A better way to put that is: Who woud want to give birth in the United States?

    And the answer is certainly thousands, probably tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands:
    "There are no statistics about the 7,462 births to foreign residents in the United States in 2008, the most recent year for which statistics are available. That is a small fraction of the roughly 4.3 million total births that year.[4] The Center for Immigration Studies, a conservative think tank, estimated in 2012 that there were approximately 40,000 annual births to parents in the United States as birth tourists.[5][6] The center also estimated in 2012 that total births to temporary immigrants in the United States (e.g., tourists, students, guest workers) could be as high as 200,000.[7][unreliable source?]

    Russian birth tourism to Florida to 'maternity hotels' in the 2010s is documented.[3][8][9] Birth tourism packages complete with lodging and medical care delivered in Russian begin at $20,000, and go as high as $84,700 for an apartment in Miami's Trump Tower II complete with a "gold-tiled bathtub and chauffeured Cadillac Escalade."[9]

    One option for mainland Chinese mothers to give birth is Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands, where the cost is cheaper and travel does not require a U.S. visa.[10] More than 70% of the newborns in Saipan have birth tourist PRC parents who take advantage of the 45-day visa-free visitation rules of the territory and the Covenant of the Northern Mariana Islands to ensure that their children can have American citizenship. There were 282 of these births in 2012.[11] At least one airline in Hong Kong requests that women who are "observed to have a body size or shape resembling a pregnant woman" submit to a pregnancy test before they are allowed to fly to Saipan.[12]

    As of 2015, Los Angeles is considered a center of the maternity tourism industry, which caters mostly to Asian women from China and Taiwan;[13] authorities in the city there closed 14 maternity tourism "hotels" in 2013.[14] The industry is difficult to close down since it is not illegal for a pregnant woman to travel to the U.S.[14]"
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_tourism

    As you can see, that article is somewhat dated. But I think it likely that the US has more "birth tourists" than any other nation. (From time to time I have seen articles saying that thousands of South Korean women alone came here to give birth each year.)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    That's a gross oversimplification, but... basically yes. No Boris, No Brexit and certainly not the Brexit he manovered us into for personal ambition.

    We know that for Gove, there was an element of it that was personal (his father's fish business and all that- whatever the reality, it was the story Gove seems to have told himself). Stanley Johnson was an MEP for a while; has anyone tried to link that to Johnson's euroscepticism?

    And even if Boris wasn't responsible for Brexit, it's likely that he gets the blame in the history books. Much easier to blame a hasbeen when the country decides to move on, whatever form that takes. And Boris always wanted to go down in history.
    Mr J certainly wanted the credit, I think it's fair to say.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,856
    edited July 2023
    MaxPB said:

    It prevents some number of people driving in outer London and we're a net importer of vehicles so we're not going to benefit as a country from new vehicle sales outside of the sales chain, most of the value chain exists outside of the UK, especially for cars being bought in wealthy outer London suburbs.

    My biggest issue, however, isn't ULEZ, which as I said I do support because I live in London and the summer air quality is atrocious. The biggest issue is local planning and local councils. They are the biggest barrier to growth in the country, they seem to exist to snuff out all enterprise in the nation a thousand paper cuts at a time.
    In my experience local councils reflect the concerns of local Parties' memberships. Average age 55+.
    And local Council voters. Probably not much different.
    Far too many seem to think that their community should look exactly as it did when they were youthful.
    And cater to the needs and desires of the over 55's.
    Hence. No ball games. No youth clubs. No nightlife. No school facilities. No new housing. Moans when bank branches close. Moans when a micropub or a softplay facility tries to move in to the empty branch. Nowt for the young at all. And precious little for families with young children.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    viewcode said:

    Doing a stupid thing for the first time is stupid
    Doing a stupid thing for the second time is more stupid
    You think 2000-8 was the first ever UK housing boom? Really?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Muesli said:

    There was also a very healthy distaste of braggadocio and narcissism amongst the Norwegians I got to know.

    And yet PB’s very own Alan bloody Whicker doesn’t rate Norway. How odd.
    I like the sound of it more and more. The locals don't think that good weather equates with a UV disaster and feeling as sweaty as a sumo wrestler's jockstrap, and they don't like bullshit. Must look into a Norwegian holiday (in part to see the stave churches).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Scott_xP said:

    Only 52%...
    Of UKers who voted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,949
    On the subject of travel and countries... I've just arrived in Berlin, and it's absolutely heaving at 11pm on Sunday.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,735
    edited July 2023
    dixiedean said:

    In my experience local councils reflect the concerns of local Parties' memberships. Average age 55+.
    And local Council voters. Probably not much different.
    Far too many seem to think that their community should look exactly as it did when they were youthful.
    And cater to the needs and desires of the over 55's.
    Hence. No ball games. No youth clubs. No nightlife. No school facilities. No new housing. Moans when bank branches close. Moans when a micropub or a softplay facility tries to move in to the empty branch. Nowt for the young at all. And precious little for families with young children.
    Which is why economic development decisions should be taken away from them, decisions should be made on automatic qualifying criteria and if those are met you go ahead, if not you don't.

    Nimbys can get fucked.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    MaxPB said:

    Which is why economic development decisions should be taken away from them, decisions should be made on automatic qualifying criteria and if those are met you go ahead, if not you don't.

    Nimbys can get fucked.
    I thought you'd moved to Switzerland? What are they like there?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,856
    MaxPB said:

    Which is why economic development decisions should be taken away from them, decisions should be made on automatic qualifying criteria and if those are met you go ahead, if not you don't.

    Nimbys can get fucked.
    But. Then who decides the qualifying criteria?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,735
    Carnyx said:

    I thought you'd moved to Switzerland? What are they like there?
    Nah, my wife didn't want to live near her mother in the end so we didn't go.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,735
    dixiedean said:

    But. Then who decides the qualifying criteria?
    The government, not the local council.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    MaxPB said:

    Nah, my wife didn't want to live near her mother in the end so we didn't go.
    Thanks. Would be interesting to see how they do things.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,856
    edited July 2023
    MaxPB said:

    The government, not the local council.
    And who elects them?
    Don't get me wrong, I am in agreement with your aims.
    But, until we have a society which doesn't fear the young we won't get far.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    edited July 2023
    dixiedean said:

    In my experience local councils reflect the concerns of local Parties' memberships. Average age 55+.
    And local Council voters. Probably not much different.
    Far too many seem to think that their community should look exactly as it did when they were youthful.
    And cater to the needs and desires of the over 55's.
    Hence. No ball games. No youth clubs. No nightlife. No school facilities. No new housing. Moans when bank branches close. Moans when a micropub or a softplay facility tries to move in to the empty branch. Nowt for the young at all. And precious little for families with young children.
    Older people also tend to be more involved in community activities from the church to Rotary clubs and NADFAS. There is also usually a youth football club locally as much as a bowls club. In my experience even many middle aged people want bank branches open and also are anti building on the greenbelt.

    It was the Covid lockdowns which damaged nightclubs profits more than anything
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,735
    dixiedean said:

    And who elects them?
    Voters. Every 5 years.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Carnyx said:

    I like the sound of it more and more. The locals don't think that good weather equates with a UV disaster and feeling as sweaty as a sumo wrestler's jockstrap, and they don't like bullshit. Must look into a Norwegian holiday (in part to see the stave churches).
    They like their sunshine, and there's plenty of it. Facebook has just reminded me that 4 years ago I was swimming in the sea at 68N. Wasn't that cold.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    Phil said:

    This is not a good thing, given that the average US buyer gets a whole lot more square footage for their $.

    In the UK the older property owning generation is holding the next hostage & forcing them to pay through the nose for shelter in order to line their own pockets to pay for their expensive cruises.

    Economically this is not productive & it’s far from obvious why a fortunate subset of the population deserve this unearned income.
    The younger generation in the UK, especially in the South are and will inherit more than any generation before them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    Carnyx said:

    BUT it is misleading to compare Surrey and London ONLY with the avewrage house prices in the USA.

    When you compare average prices, UK house prices are barely ahead despite frantic inflation by your party. Which means the true worth is LESS.
    How can it be less if UK average house prices are more?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Councils have too little power, or perhaps too little of the power we want (placemaking), and too much of the power we don’t want (pettifogging).

    The result is a lowest common denominator disaster zone.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,898
    Miklosvar said:

    You think 2000-8 was the first ever UK housing boom? Really?
    No. I think there were other booms before that. So let me modify my answer.

    Doing a stupid thing for the nth time is stupid
    Doing a stupid thing for the n+1th time is more stupid
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    dixiedean said:

    And who elects them?
    Don't get me wrong, I am in agreement with your aims.
    But, until we have a society which doesn't fear the young we won't get far.
    Very fit young blondes who can trace their ancestry back to Woden.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,856
    HYUFD said:

    The younger generation in the UK, especially in the South are and will inherit more than any generation before them
    We've been through this before. The younger generation don't inherit anything. Their much older parents do.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    dixiedean said:

    We've been through this before. The younger generation don't inherit anything. Their much older parents do.
    Some will via gifts for deposits from grandparents or from their parents
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,373
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of travel and countries... I've just arrived in Berlin, and it's absolutely heaving at 11pm on Sunday.

    Paris was the same a few weeks ago. It was quite impressive.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,378

    That's a gross oversimplification, but... basically yes. No Boris, No Brexit and certainly not the Brexit he manovered us into for personal ambition.

    We know that for Gove, there was an element of it that was personal (his father's fish business and all that- whatever the reality, it was the story Gove seems to have told himself). Stanley Johnson was an MEP for a while; has anyone tried to link that to Johnson's euroscepticism?

    And even if Boris wasn't responsible for Brexit, it's likely that he gets the blame in the history books. Much easier to blame a hasbeen when the country decides to move on, whatever form that takes. And Boris always wanted to go down in history.
    I think this another reason why I think Brexit will either be reversed or we'll end up with a version of it more akin to what Richard Tyndall wants. Johnson is going to be compared to PMs such as Chamberlain and Eden in the history books, and Millennials are not going to have fond memories of either him or the various cronies (Mogg, Dorries, Jenkyns, Frost) who enabled him. Brexit's association with his corruption and cronyism means Remainers/Rejoiners aren't going to change their minds and demographic change will see Rejoin's lead continually grow.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,213
    There are better statistics available on naturalization in the US, than on birth tourism. For example:
    "USCIS welcomed 967,500 new citizens in fiscal year 2022 during naturalization ceremonies held across the United States and around the world. This is a 20% increase from last year and the highest number of naturalizations seen since FY 2008."
    source: https://www.uscis.gov/citizenship-resource-center/naturalization-statistics

    (Some of our politicians like to attend the naturalization ceremonies, especially the ones on July 4th.)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    kjh said:

    Paris was the same a few weeks ago. It was quite impressive.
    BERLIN is BACK!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,220

    Councils have too little power, or perhaps too little of the power we want (placemaking), and too much of the power we don’t want (pettifogging).

    The result is a lowest common denominator disaster zone.

    When pettifrogging is pretty much all you have, naturally it gets overdone. What's weird is Westminster and Whitehall have the actual power and yet also overemphasise pettifrogging.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    RobD said:

    As I said earlier, atypical.
    Well I have an anecdote of 1, and you just have assertion.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,856
    HYUFD said:

    Some will via gifts for deposits from grandparents or from their parents
    And those (the vast majority) who don't?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    kle4 said:

    When pettifrogging is pretty much all you have, naturally it gets overdone. What's weird is Westminster and Whitehall have the actual power and yet also overemphasise pettifrogging.
    Pettifogging.

    Pettifrogging is presumably the very small braid detail in regimental jackets.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    kle4 said:

    When pettifrogging is pretty much all you have, naturally it gets overdone. What's weird is Westminster and Whitehall have the actual power and yet also overemphasise pettifrogging.
    More seriously, Britain is an incredibly nanny-fied state.
    Brits don’t realise this, but it is.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,735
    edited July 2023

    Councils have too little power, or perhaps too little of the power we want (placemaking), and too much of the power we don’t want (pettifogging).

    The result is a lowest common denominator disaster zone.

    No, councils have too much power. It's time to smash planning committees to pieces and just get rid of all of them.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,731

    But who does it negatively impact, in terms of numbers? What I am asking is how many voters have pre- Euro 6 diesels?
    What you see in many areas of west London is a mix of people who’ve been living there since the year dot. Not especially wealthy, car is an old banger.

    Next door you have wealthy incomers who bought when the area was so-so - house in a cheap area. Big rip out and redo on the house. Expensive hybrid or EV parked out front.

    One thing to consider is the former group, even when their current car is compliant, expect the next step to happen soon. Reduce the emission levels, again, and take *their* car. They all know someone who had to sell their car outside London because of LEZ. They see it as pricing them off the road, in favour of the incomers with the money for a brand new car.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,731
    MaxPB said:

    Most people I know are in favour.
    It’s about groupings - the people you mix with are well off professionals? Those are the people whose cars are compliant because they are so new.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,144
    MaxPB said:

    No, councils have too much power. It's time to smash planning committees to pieces and just get rid of all of them.
    So, no planning restrictions? Or, if not, who decides?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    edited July 2023
    dixiedean said:

    And those (the vast majority) who don't?
    The majority do now 'Nearly two-thirds of parents have helped their children with a deposit for a new home, forking out an average of £32,440'
    https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/revealed-how-much-the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-gives-children-for-deposits/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,735

    So, no planning restrictions? Or, if not, who decides?
    As I said, criteria for planning should be pass/fail and once all of them are passed in the application it gets approval. The rules can be set by central government so we get consistency.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,220
    MaxPB said:

    No, councils have too much power. It's time to smash planning committees to pieces and just get rid of all of them.
    Planning committees can only do what government permits them to do (when they go beyond that, as they frequently do, their decisions get overturned). The local planning policies their councils pass have to be signed off as sound under national rules.

    Also, something like 90+% of applications don't get near a planning committee.

    Fundamentally the problem with planning committees is that local councils want the planning system to be a way of saying No to things, whereas central government (historically) wants the planning system to be a way of saying Yes to things.

    It's a balance which was already leaning too far toward No, and since Boris's failed attempt at reform and the current government's retreat to pleasing its absolute core, has now been smashed as the government no longer even wants it to say Yes anymore.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,144
    MaxPB said:

    As I said, criteria for planning should be pass/fail and once all of them are passed in the application it gets approval. The rules can be set by central government so we get consistency.
    Which would be fine if we can make the criteria completely objective (hint: we can't - consider a requirement for a new building to be 'in keeping' in an historic neighbourhood).

    There must also rightly be a degree of local situation influencing planning - who want's brick buildings begin built in the centre of Bath for example.

    Having said that, HMG could legislate to make planning easier. At the moment our village is not a designated development village in Dorset so no new buildings can be built unless they are replacing an old one that is knocked down. As a consequence of course the village is slowly dying, frozen in time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    edited July 2023
    kle4 said:

    Planning committees can only do what government permits them to do (when they go beyond that, as they frequently do, their decisions get overturned). The local planning policies their councils pass have to be signed off as sound under national rules.

    Also, something like 90+% of applications don't get near a planning committee.

    Fundamentally the problem with planning committees is that local councils want the planning system to be a way of saying No to things, whereas central government (historically) wants the planning system to be a way of saying Yes to things.

    It's a balance which was already leaning too far toward No, and since Boris's failed attempt at reform and the current government's retreat to pleasing its absolute core, has now been smashed as the government no longer even wants it to say Yes anymore.
    59% of UK voters oppose allowing more housing to be built on the green belt. Planning cttees only reflect what their voters think. Gove has now reflected those views at central government level too

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/05/17/d5ba5/1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,220
    edited July 2023
    HYUFD said:

    59% of UK voters oppose allowing more housing to be built on the green belt. Planning cttees only reflect what their voters think

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/05/17/d5ba5/1
    Which is not their job, which is to judge applications against local and national planning policy (also, I don't know why you are bringing housing on the Green Belt into it, planning committees consider a lot more than matters in the Green Belt as you know).

    Of course, there will always be an element of recognising local sentiment, that's life and politics, and some policies are judgement calls (eg the what is 'in keeping' question, or what impact is there on local amenity etc) and committees can reasonably take a view different to an officer recommendation, and that can be upheld by an inspector. Most committee members are sensible (and since they will be from across a local authority area to some degree, not wholly parochial) and look for the edge cases they can refuse for defendable reasons.

    But as you also know but pretend not to know because you think it is funny, if the only thing planning committees do is listen to their local voters and ignore planning policies, it does no good for those voters because the decisions get approved anyway, just not by them.

    I mean seriously, if you refuse something that is obviously in line with policy and it then gets approval anyway by an inspector (which happens a lot), do you seriously think you get a benefit from local voters for it? Especially when your local opponent is likely to be just as opposed to the development as you are.

    No! All the voters will remember is that the housing got built anyway - and you just have to hope they don't blame you.

    ETA: Oh, and if you are on your local planning committee do be sure not to state publicly that you think the only thing that matters is reflecting what the local voters think about an application - it could open up the committee's decision to challenge, particularly if the vote was close, on the basis the stated reasons for refusal were not the reason reasons, and you were acting irrationally. Try to always slip in at least one planning policy reason for opposing - and better than that LD MP and her 5G ridiculousness (notably in that case the official reason for refusal was something else).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,688
    kle4 said:

    Planning committees can only do what government permits them to do (when they go beyond that, as they frequently do, their decisions get overturned). The local planning policies their councils pass have to be signed off as sound under national rules.

    Also, something like 90+% of applications don't get near a planning committee.

    Fundamentally the problem with planning committees is that local councils want the planning system to be a way of saying No to things, whereas central government (historically) wants the planning system to be a way of saying Yes to things.

    It's a balance which was already leaning too far toward No, and since Boris's failed attempt at reform and the current government's retreat to pleasing its absolute core, has now been smashed as the government no longer even wants it to say Yes anymore.
    Doesn't sound like our council. I cannot recall a time when a significant housing development was refused, though some have had conditions applied on landscaping and road access etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,220

    It’s a shame that so many children can only get on the housing ladder with help from their parents. It would be so much better if house prices were lower and they could afford to buy a home with their own savings and income.
    Great comment. It's nice many people get help, but shouldn't people who work full time, two people usually, be able to get on the ladder without significant help?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    edited July 2023
    kle4 said:

    Which is not their job, which is to judge applications against local and national planning policy (also, I don't know why you are bringing housing on the Green Belt into it, planning committees consider a lot more than matters in the Green Belt as you know).

    Of course, there will always be an element of recognising local sentiment, that's life and politics, and some policies are judgement calls (eg the what is 'in keeping' question, or what impact is there on local amenity etc) and committees can reasonably take a view different to an officer recommendation, and that can be upheld by an inspector. Most committee members are sensible (and since they will be from across a local authority area to some degree, not wholly parochial) and look for the edge cases they can refuse for defendable reasons.

    But as you also know but pretend not to know because you think it is funny, if the only thing planning committees do is listen to their local voters and ignore planning policies, it does no good for those voters because the decisions get approved anyway, just not by them.

    I mean seriously, if you refuse something that is obviously in line with policy and it then gets approval anyway by an inspector (which happens a lot), do you seriously think you get a benefit from local voters for it? Especially when your local opponent is likely to be just as opposed to the development as you are.

    No! All the voters will remember is that the housing got built anyway - and you just have to hope they don't blame you.

    ETA: Oh, and if you are on your local planning committee do be sure not to state publicly that you think the only thing that matters is reflecting what the local voters think about an application - it could open up the committee's decision to challenge, particularly if the vote was close, on the basis the stated reasons for refusal were not the reason reasons, and you were acting irrationally. Try to always slip in at least one planning policy reason for opposing - and better than that LD MP and her 5G ridiculousness (notably in that case the official reason for refusal was something else).
    Of course planning decisions have to be in line with the local plan but increasingly councils offering lots of new greenbelt housing in their local plans, especially Tory ones, have been thrown out by local voters in favour of NIMBY LD, Green and Independent councils who adjust their local plans in a more NIMBY direction accordingly. After Chesham and Amersham Gove too has scrapped mandatory central government new housing targets too
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,133
    HYUFD said:

    59% of UK voters oppose allowing more housing to be built on the green belt. Planning cttees only reflect what their voters think. Gove has now reflected those views at central government level too

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/05/17/d5ba5/1
    And hence the problem.

    Although voters don't want more building on the green belt, they also don't want to get poorer. And it's beginning to look like the first is causing the second.

    But @kle4 is right; council planning committees don't have that much discretion about individual planning applications. All the planning committee can really do is say whether application X is within the rules of the local plan or not. Those rules are often tightly, meanly drawn, but that's another matter. Hyped Local Campaigns against specific developments make a lot of noise (and win a lot of elections) but don't really change that many decisions from what would have happened anyway. Local plan designations are way more important for that.

    But ultimately, electorates get the governments they deserve, because they get the governments they vote for. If we think that our governments are stupid, short-sighted and dishonest, well...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    edited July 2023

    It’s a shame that so many children can only get on the housing ladder with help from their parents. It would be so much better if house prices were lower and they could afford to buy a home with their own savings and income.
    North of Watford gap many can but I am in favour of inherited wealth and the family so have no problem with parental assistance for their childrens' deposits
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,520
    HYUFD said:

    The younger generation in the UK, especially in the South are and will inherit more than any generation before them
    But the reason the housing is so expensive is because there’s a shortage of the stuff relative to population growth.

    So, again, we have an unearned transfer of wealth from those who don’t own property to those who do, or whose parent’s did, resulting in the latter having a massive incentive to constrain housing supply in order to line their own pockets. Something they are able to do now that they’ve abstracted all that wealth from those who would like to see more housing being built.

    This is economic madness.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,949
    kjh said:

    Paris was the same a few weeks ago. It was quite impressive.
    Are you sure those weren't riots?
  • We should be building houses on Brownfield sites. But when one tries just that do that they come up with reasons against it. Like it's not a bus route. Or too far from a school.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,542
    Somewhat off-topic, but I was watching this earlier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6EWdBb2sXA . (" Goldie & The Heritage Orchestra “Timeless (Sine Tempore)" ")

    It struck me that it was quite something that we accepted and thought "this is f**king brilliant" into our culture in way I think would have been more troublesome for the US or French, for instance. And also struck me that it was something that was profoundly un-brexiteer in the way it is commonly expressed by the likes of the Mail or Mogg.

    Possibly I am also a bit tipsy and on holiday for two weeks, however,

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,726
    HYUFD said:

    The majority do now 'Nearly two-thirds of parents have helped their children with a deposit for a new home, forking out an average of £32,440'
    https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/revealed-how-much-the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-gives-children-for-deposits/
    Honestly, you really should know better. This is a survey of 1,100 Zoopla users who, by definition, are people buying, or looking to buy, houses. It therefore doesn't include the millions who never look at Zoopla because they have no prospect of buying a house. So it's two-thirds of a small, atypical, self-selecting subsample.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    So much of the focus on house prices is on how it prices people out of buying.

    I would like to see a lot more attention paid to the effect of high house prices on the economy more generally.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,220
    edited July 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Of course planning decisions have to be in line with the local plan but increasingly councils offering lots of new greenbelt housing in their local plans, especially Tory ones, have been thrown out by local voters in favour of NIMBY LD, Green and Independent councils who adjust their local plans in a more NIMBY direction accordingly. After Chesham and Amersham Gove too has scrapped mandatory central government new housing targets too
    I was unclear on whether they actually had been made advisory, not mandatory, or whether that was merely part of the latest reform proposals.

    However, certainly many local authorities have already started treating them as advisory so it matters little..

    What is the case, however, is notwithstanding that new Local Plans still have to identify sufficient sites - though naturally councils will low ball the numbers as much as they can.

    And here's thing thing - you can never go low enough for NIMBYs. Yes, I'm a planning hawk compared to the average voter, but you simply won't build enough houses without making councils permit them (yes, developers are also very disreputable on the issue as well), since there will always be a group of voters unhappy. You will never satisfy those who, in practice, are simply against anything.

    Don't build on green fields (and let's pretend it's all Green Belt!), go brownfield. No, don't build that many on that brownfield site. We need houses, but we don't have the infrastructure to support it. No, don't build the infrastructure either! And so on.

    It's a race to the bottom. That's why it is a balance - sometimes government has to lead and give us what we need, not just what we demand. You know who might have been able to do that? A government with a huge majority in a period of major national transition.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    edited July 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    The biggest component of the IMF's forecast is working age population.
    Does anyone look at country-level data in terms of GDP divided by the size of the working age population?

    When we think in terms of productivity, and whether a country's economy is developing, it feels like it would be really useful as a way of stripping out the effects of where that country is along the process of the demographic transition, and correct for boosts to headline GDP created by importing working age immigrants.
  • .

    And hence the problem.

    Although voters don't want more building on the green belt, they also don't want to get poorer. And it's beginning to look like the first is causing the second.

    But @kle4 is right; council planning committees don't have that much discretion about individual planning applications. All the planning committee can really do is say whether application X is within the rules of the local plan or not. Those rules are often tightly, meanly drawn, but that's another matter. Hyped Local Campaigns against specific developments make a lot of noise (and win a lot of elections) but don't really change that many decisions from what would have happened anyway. Local plan designations are way more important for that.

    But ultimately, electorates get the governments they deserve, because they get the governments they vote for. If we think that our governments are stupid, short-sighted and dishonest, well...
    Council planning committees have far too much discretion about individual plannjng applications. Over a quarter of all new house building applications are rejected and that's despite the system putting off people from even trying to lodge an application unless it will be accepted. This means that small firms can't afford to even try to house build let alone do it rapidly.

    So instead we have the farce of an oligopoly of firms that can play the system exploiting it to their advantage.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,542
    HYUFD said:

    The majority do now 'Nearly two-thirds of parents have helped their children with a deposit for a new home, forking out an average of £32,440'
    https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/revealed-how-much-the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-gives-children-for-deposits/
    "Breaking: Nearly two-thirds of Romanov's have helped their children with..."

    I mean, it's not a great historical trend. And there are so many fewer train stations these days. Imagine the over-crowding.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,220

    .

    Council planning committees have far too much discretion about individual plannjng applications. Over a quarter of all new house building applications are rejected and that's despite the system putting off people from even trying to lodge an application unless it will be accepted.
    Given the number of applications which are dealt with under delegated powers, even if every planning committee decision was a refusal I don't think they can be blamed for all of that quarter.
  • .
    HYUFD said:

    North of Watford gap many can but I am in favour of inherited wealth and the family so have no problem with parental assistance for their childrens' deposits
    I have no problem with parents helping if they can afford to do so, but that shouldn't be a requirement. That's the difference.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,949

    Does anyone look at country-level data in terms of GDP divided by the size of the working age population?

    When we think in terms of productivity, and whether a country's economy is developing, it feels like it would be really useful as a way of stripping out the effects of where that country is along the process of the demographic transition, and correct for boosts to headline GDP created by importing working age immigrants.
    Yep, there's been some good work done on that, and it throws up some rather surprising stats.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,075
    rcs1000 said:

    That's a misleading quote. If you read the article, it says:

    "A staggering 64% of parents whose grown-up children own a home have given them money to help them onto the property ladder."

    In other words, it's almost impossible for people to get onto the property ladder without the help of mum and dad. And most parents can't afford to gift little Johnny £32k.
    Supply and demand. Everyone in the world wants to own a UK property, if they can afford it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,367

    That's a gross oversimplification, but... basically yes. No Boris, No Brexit and certainly not the Brexit he manovered us into for personal ambition.
    That's complete nonsense. If you don't like the Brexit that we were 'manoeuvred into for personal ambition', perhaps you should put some of the blame on Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer, whose personal ambition blocked us from getting Theresa May's Brexit instead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    rcs1000 said:

    That's a misleading quote. If you read the article, it says:

    "A staggering 64% of parents whose grown-up children own a home have given them money to help them onto the property ladder."

    In other words, it's almost impossible for people to get onto the property ladder without the help of mum and dad. And most parents can't afford to gift little Johnny £32k.
    They can not least with equity release etc
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438

    .

    I have no problem with parents helping if they can afford to do so, but that shouldn't be a requirement. That's the difference.
    Well unless you earn about £100k+ a year it pretty much is a requirement if you want to buy a property in London and the Home Counties.

    Otherwise if you want to buy a property entirely on your own on an average salary then you have to move north of the Watford Gap
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    ohnotnow said:

    "Breaking: Nearly two-thirds of Romanov's have helped their children with..."

    I mean, it's not a great historical trend. And there are so many fewer train stations these days. Imagine the over-crowding.
    Russia was better off with the Romanovs than Putin
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,133
    kle4 said:

    Given the number of applications which are dealt with under delegated powers, even if every planning committee decision was a refusal I don't think they can be blamed for all of that quarter.
    There is a power imbalance; councillors are much more likely to stretch their "no benefit of the doubt" refusal powers against a small development than a big one, because there is less risk of it being appealed.

    But thinking about some of the things that have been proposed near me, some proposals didn't have a hope in hell of being passed because they were blatantly outside the current rules. Maybe those particular rules shouldn't exist, maybe there should be minimal rules, but that doesn't have much to do with the existence of council planning committees.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,438
    edited July 2023
    kle4 said:

    I was unclear on whether they actually had been made advisory, not mandatory, or whether that was merely part of the latest reform proposals.

    However, certainly many local authorities have already started treating them as advisory so it matters little..

    What is the case, however, is notwithstanding that new Local Plans still have to identify sufficient sites - though naturally councils will low ball the numbers as much as they can.

    And here's thing thing - you can never go low enough for NIMBYs. Yes, I'm a planning hawk compared to the average voter, but you simply won't build enough houses without making councils permit them (yes, developers are also very disreputable on the issue as well), since there will always be a group of voters unhappy. You will never satisfy those who, in practice, are simply against anything.

    Don't build on green fields (and let's pretend it's all Green Belt!), go brownfield. No, don't build that many on that brownfield site. We need houses, but we don't have the infrastructure to support it. No, don't build the infrastructure either! And so on.

    It's a race to the bottom. That's why it is a balance - sometimes government has to lead and give us what we need, not just what we demand. You know who might have been able to do that? A government with a huge majority in a period of major national transition.
    Starmer is welcome to propose building new housing all over the greenbelt if he wins the next election. We Tories would oppose him every step of the way in opposition if he does propose that and would also be joined by the LDs in opposing such plans
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,898

    That's complete nonsense. If you don't like the Brexit that we were 'manoeuvred into for personal ambition', perhaps you should put some of the blame on Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer, whose personal ambition blocked us from getting Theresa May's Brexit instead.
    If things have deteriorated to the point that you are all arguing about who is to blame for Brexit, then I think we can agree it has gone badly. If it had gone right, you would be arguing about who gets the credit... :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,367
    edited July 2023
    Interesting comments from Trump on Ukraine today. He said that he'll tell Putin, "If you don't make a deal, we're going to give them [Ukraine] a lot. We're going to give them more than they've ever got if we have to."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,339
    HYUFD said:

    59% of UK voters oppose allowing more housing to be built on the green belt.
    Less than 30% of UK voters currently support the Tories.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,973
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is welcome to propose building new housing all over the greenbelt if he wins the next election. We Tories would oppose him every step of the way in opposition if he does propose that and would also be joined by the LDs in opposing such plans
    Once they’re built they are built
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,367
    viewcode said:

    If things have deteriorated to the point that you are all arguing about who is to blame for Brexit, then I think we can agree it has gone badly. If it had gone right, you would be arguing about who gets the credit... :)
    Boris's great political achievement was breaking the impasse, but I don't think you can give him the credit for creating it. :)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,077
    Oh.


  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Honestly, you really should know better. This is a survey of 1,100 Zoopla users who, by definition, are people buying, or looking to buy, houses. It therefore doesn't include the millions who never look at Zoopla because they have no prospect of buying a house. So it's two-thirds of a small, atypical, self-selecting subsample.
    An ice cream "poll". Though probably more scientifically accurate than Trafalgar.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,494
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,898

    Boris's great political achievement was breaking the impasse, but I don't think you can give him the credit for creating it. :)
    Boris is responsible for everything bad, down to the Harrying of the North, Joe Dolce keeping "Vienna" off number 1, and the shrinkage of Curly-Wurlies. I am convinced of it. It is a True Fact.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    There are better statistics available on naturalization in the US, than on birth tourism. For example:
    "USCIS welcomed 967,500 new citizens in fiscal year 2022 during naturalization ceremonies held across the United States and around the world. This is a 20% increase from last year and the highest number of naturalizations seen since FY 2008."
    source: https://www.uscis.gov/citizenship-resource-center/naturalization-statistics

    (Some of our politicians like to attend the naturalization ceremonies, especially the ones on July 4th.)

    You mean reasonably smart politicos like former US Representative and current GOP candidate for WA Governor in 2024, Dave Reichert?

    https://www.dvidshub.net/image/2304865/8th-annual-jblm-veterans-day-naturalization-ceremony

    Also current Governor Jay Inslee and US Representative Pramila Jayapal?

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/seattle-welcomes-501-new-american-citizens-at-july-fourth-ceremony/

    Have attended a couple of these naturalization ceremonies at Seattle Center, under the Space Needle. Check it out!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    ohnotnow said:

    Somewhat off-topic, but I was watching this earlier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6EWdBb2sXA . (" Goldie & The Heritage Orchestra “Timeless (Sine Tempore)" ")

    It struck me that it was quite something that we accepted and thought "this is f**king brilliant" into our culture in way I think would have been more troublesome for the US or French, for instance. And also struck me that it was something that was profoundly un-brexiteer in the way it is commonly expressed by the likes of the Mail or Mogg.

    Possibly I am also a bit tipsy and on holiday for two weeks, however,

    The Heritage Orchestra stuff is indeed f**king brilliant. I’ve been to a couple of gigs, one of which was in an opera house, of a full orchestra playing house music. It’s an unforgettable experience, and a reminder that music and musicians can cross boundaries of style and instruments.

    A few years ago, the BBC did “The Ibiza Prom” at the RAH, definitely one way to get the next generation of young people interested in classical music. https://youtube.com/watch?v=xs3BXVTF7mw

    I’ve also seen 2Cellos live, again playing modern music on classical instruments.

    You can play this one at my funeral - “For An Angel” - Paul Van Dyk and Paavo Järvi HR Orchestra https://youtube.com/watch?v=gAKy_R1XUBI
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