Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The "estimate" does not bear a moment's scrutiny. The prejudice and bias that allows people to accept it uncritically says so much more.
Do you have any substantial arguments, or is it now considered acceptable legal practice in Scotland to airily explain that things “don’t bear a moment’s scrutiny”?
You’re in denial I’m afraid. Although I suspect that in your part of the world (Dundee?) and in your profession (law), the economy is a somewhat theoretical concept at the best of times.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The "estimate" does not bear a moment's scrutiny. The prejudice and bias that allows people to accept it uncritically says so much more.
Sorry Davidl apparently you are a crank
Oh good.
When I was at boarding school the boy in the next bed had a poster above his bed with Snoopy from Charlie Brown. It said: "I'm going to start being sensible tomorrow!". Thankfully, tomorrow never comes.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
My original post was carefully hedged. I had some researchers had estimated the impact at 5.5% while others thought it smaller or larger.
Cue the mass baying of cranks.
As said researcher points out, this finding is in line with Treasury forecasts anyway, so it’s hardly “unbelievable” as some posters who ought to know better claim.
Well seems so far most people are siding with me, as to the treasury....economists agree with economists is such a huge surprise I have a shocked face
The cranks are siding with you. The usual suspects.
Most everyone else simply politely ignores your posts, as one does a lunatic muttering to himself at one end of a tube carriage.
Only one crank here and he is from new zealand, the mere fact you have to attack me as a person rather than the content of what I have posted which has not been as you say "angry". I have posted facts with sources you have posted estimates by economists with no real world facts backing them. Go home hobbit
As I said, read the article kindly posted upthread for a full defence.
Until you do so, you are justly accused of simply ignoring the evidence. I also note that shouting the word “economists” is not, in itself, an argument.
He doesn't have evidence so dont call it that. He has a theory it has been measured against reality and been found wanting. I don't need to read a defence of the flat earth theory to say its wrong because reality has shown its wrong already. The same as your beloved economist
Interesting header. Buried in that Brexit thread is this nugget, which is so true:
"Prohibition reminds us that politicians follow more often than they lead."
I increasingly wonder whether it makes much difference which party is in power. As an example, look at the enormous changes in social attitudes towards, and the legal protection of, homosexuality, race, disability, gender, single parents, etc. etc. that have occurred during the past 40 years, 27 of which the traditionally conservative Conservative party has been in power.
Have the Tories championed the rights of, say, gay people, single parents, or disabled people? No, they have merely followed where society led.
The UK will not rejoin the EU, because the EU wouldn't have us. The last thing they want is an awkward flip flopping member.
I'm not actually sure that's true. They always loved our money, and we'd undoubtedly be huge net contributors again if we were idiotic enough to rejoin. And they'd love the prestige boost of us admitting that we made a mistake. And of course they'd love the increase in power that 70 million people and more nuclear weapons would give them.
What they probably wouldn't do is enter into negotiations if they thought that the final deal would have to be approved by a referendum here, as it probably would be - they've always hated democracy.
I disagree.
We were awkward numbers when we were members. Why would you want to invite someone into the club who is going to cause you much hassle.
Also, it only takes one to veto. I can see why the Dutch or the Poles might want us in, but why would the French?
I think the real question is more, how far are the other member states willing to bend to get the British back in? For example it would be complicated to win a referendum on the basis that Britain was going to join the Euro, even if there was a tacit understanding that they were going to commit to doing it but not actually do it. I think a lot ends up depending on who is leading which EU country at the time and what their domestic situations are.
The other angle to this is that the next Labour government will presumably be more forthcoming than the current one about what they know about the degree to which Brexit was a Russian op.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
My original post was carefully hedged. I had some researchers had estimated the impact at 5.5% while others thought it smaller or larger.
Cue the mass baying of cranks.
As said researcher points out, this finding is in line with Treasury forecasts anyway, so it’s hardly “unbelievable” as some posters who ought to know better claim.
Well seems so far most people are siding with me, as to the treasury....economists agree with economists is such a huge surprise I have a shocked face
The cranks are siding with you. The usual suspects.
Most everyone else simply politely ignores your posts, as one does a lunatic muttering to himself at one end of a tube carriage.
Only one crank here and he is from new zealand, the mere fact you have to attack me as a person rather than the content of what I have posted which has not been as you say "angry". I have posted facts with sources you have posted estimates by economists with no real world facts backing them. Go home hobbit
As I said, read the article kindly posted upthread for a full defence.
Until you do so, you are justly accused of simply ignoring the evidence. I also note that shouting the word “economists” is not, in itself, an argument.
He doesn't have evidence so dont call it that. He has a theory it has been measured against reality and been found wanting. I don't need to read a defence of the flat earth theory to say its wrong because reality has shown its wrong already. The same as your beloved economist
What “measure of reality” has it been measured against and found wanting?
It’s a counterfactual, based on a basket of analogous economies.
You can minge about whether the basket/doppelgänger concept is even appropriate, and/or you could cavil about the especial weightings maybe?
OR, like DavidL you could just dismiss it like Humpty Dumpty in Alice in Wonderland.
Interesting header. Buried in that Brexit thread is this nugget, which is so true:
"Prohibition reminds us that politicians follow more often than they lead."
I increasingly wonder whether it makes much difference which party is in power. As an example, look at the enormous changes in social attitudes towards, and the legal protection of, homosexuality, race, disability, gender, single parents, etc. etc. that have occurred during the past 40 years, 27 of which the traditionally conservative Conservative party has been in power.
Have the Tories championed the rights of, say, gay people, single parents, or disabled people? No, they have merely followed where society led.
How much resistance is put up may depend on the party in power. And there are many variations or specific policies which may fall under the umbrella of a general cultural shift.
So it does make a difference, but not as much as people may think (people tend toward the two extremes - they are all the same/one is evil, one is good).
At local level it makes almost no difference, as national rules and constraints apply, and there is not much wiggle room beyond that.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
My original post was carefully hedged. I had some researchers had estimated the impact at 5.5% while others thought it smaller or larger.
Cue the mass baying of cranks.
As said researcher points out, this finding is in line with Treasury forecasts anyway, so it’s hardly “unbelievable” as some posters who ought to know better claim.
Well seems so far most people are siding with me, as to the treasury....economists agree with economists is such a huge surprise I have a shocked face
The cranks are siding with you. The usual suspects.
Most everyone else simply politely ignores your posts, as one does a lunatic muttering to himself at one end of a tube carriage.
Only one crank here and he is from new zealand, the mere fact you have to attack me as a person rather than the content of what I have posted which has not been as you say "angry". I have posted facts with sources you have posted estimates by economists with no real world facts backing them. Go home hobbit
As I said, read the article kindly posted upthread for a full defence.
Until you do so, you are justly accused of simply ignoring the evidence. I also note that shouting the word “economists” is not, in itself, an argument.
He doesn't have evidence so dont call it that. He has a theory it has been measured against reality and been found wanting. I don't need to read a defence of the flat earth theory to say its wrong because reality has shown its wrong already. The same as your beloved economist
What “measure of reality” has it been measured against and found wanting?
It’s a counterfactual, based on a basket of analogous economies.
You can minge about whether the basket/doppelgänger concept is even appropriate, and/or you could cavil about the especial weightings maybe?
OR, like DavidL you could just dismiss it like Humpty Dumpty in Alice in Wonderland.
I dismissed your fairytale with real world figures with quoted sources. When you can find real world figures backing up your 5.5% loss come back till then just fuck off as I am bored now and I suspect most other people are as well
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Is ULEZ expansion such a big issue outside Nick Ferrari's head?
It is either a seismic event or wishful thinking by Tory activists.
Interesting header. Buried in that Brexit thread is this nugget, which is so true:
"Prohibition reminds us that politicians follow more often than they lead."
I increasingly wonder whether it makes much difference which party is in power. As an example, look at the enormous changes in social attitudes towards, and the legal protection of, homosexuality, race, disability, gender, single parents, etc. etc. that have occurred during the past 40 years, 27 of which the traditionally conservative Conservative party has been in power.
Have the Tories championed the rights of, say, gay people, single parents, or disabled people? No, they have merely followed where society led.
Although legal abortion, homosexuality, civil unions and the Equality Act and Sex Discrimination Act were passed under Labour governments. Even homosexual marriage saw most Tory MPs vote against it, even if Cameron backed it, with Labour and LD MPs votes passing it.
The Disability Discrimination Act passed under the Major government though
I can only tell you what I told you before: you need to take yourself out of the picture. You are not interesting, the place is.
I quite like the viewfrom the perspective of the viewer. When I'm in such a situation, my focus is as much on the anticipation of imminent refreshment than on the pleasant surroundings. It's a less informative view but gives more of a feel of the situation.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Is ULEZ expansion such a big issue outside Nick Ferrari's head?
It is either a seismic event or wishful thinking by Tory activists.
Bit of both.
Those who are angry about War On Cars stuff are really angry about it.
Those who quite like it... quite like it.
If you're doing talk radio, the first is all you need. If you're a struggling political party, they give you a nucleus to work with. But if you want to win an election, it's probably not enough.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
Yes, it’s possible that we live in a world where the majority have experienced stagnant income growth with the elite creaming off the profits & since the richest elites live in the US, those profits show up disproportionately in the US.
The US also benefits from lead reserve currency status of course.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
Fentanyl and guns
It would be an interesting stat for all countries to publish deaths with suicides and drug deaths taken out. My suspicion is we would have a lot more closer figures even in scotland
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
As a Rawlsian experiment, would you rather be born in the USA, UK or, say, Netherlands?
You don’t get to choose your socio-economic status, nor which part of the country to be born/live in.
I would not be choosing the US.
Even if I contend, as I do, that living standards ard higher for the “top 65%”.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
Yes, it’s possible that we live in a world where the majority have experienced stagnant income growth with the elite creaming off the profits & since the richest elites live in the US, those profits show up disproportionately in the US.
The US also benefits from lead reserve currency status of course.
It’s well understood that unequal economies can be less productive.
See South America for details. Also, the American South before the Civil War, to go back to the book I’m supposed to be reading.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
As a Rawlsian experiment, would you rather be born in the USA, UK or, say, Netherlands?
You don’t get to choose your socio-economic status, nor which part of the country to be born/live in.
I would not be choosing the US.
Even if I contend, as I do, that living standards ard higher for the “top 65%”.
Well, the United States has legacies of local slavery and inequality that Europeans cleverly outsourced to their empires.
The reality is the Brexit status quo is unsustainable and eventually one or both parties will give the people what they want, that’s politics
OK. Here are the real questions and issues:
Brexit poses two problems very like the problem of NI.
(a) What is that the majority actually want, of the sort which can be translated into policy and practice
and
(b) When you have decided that, can it be be done in a manner which is itself sustainable and has 'losers consent' - will those who don't agree accept is sufficiently well that our sort of democracy is preserved. (The sort of problem of NI politics and increasingly in USA politics).
My view of (a) is that no-one, including me, Sir K and Rishi, has any idea and for (b) my view is that 'losers consent' is unlikely.
When in that situation I have described, and without guns and bombs, you tinker with the status quo until you can't.
I don't like this because I want to join EFTA/EEA. I hope Sir K can do a Swiss style imitation of this but for these reasons I doubt if heb can.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The "estimate" does not bear a moment's scrutiny. The prejudice and bias that allows people to accept it uncritically says so much more.
Do you have any substantial arguments, or is it now considered acceptable legal practice in Scotland to airily explain that things “don’t bear a moment’s scrutiny”?
You’re in denial I’m afraid. Although I suspect that in your part of the world (Dundee?) and in your profession (law), the economy is a somewhat theoretical concept at the best of times.
@Pagan2 has quoted the facts. The projections by the IMF may prove to be wrong. In fact, given their record they almost certainly will be. What exactly are you operating on? A projection by an economist based upon an economic model that would certainly not have forecast the out performance of the last 4 years. I mean seriously, grow up.
The argument that global growth has slowed and so Brexit is a distraction is of course another form of copium.
Just because everyone around you also feels unwell doesn’t make it useful to cut off your own leg, nor will it help you walk again.
I'm reminded a bit of the global warming conversations earlier in the week.
In both cases, you can't do a double blind controlled test, so you have to fudge an alternative. And that is always messy, so deniers gonna deny. Especially since acknowledging the problems means accepting painful adjustments.
But Brexit Backers promised us a Nike Swoosh. (I'm not sure they said when, or how, but... details.)
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I quoted reliable sources for actual figures....it is not me that is the one with ishoo's you quoted an economist. The definition of the "science of economy" is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday didn't happen. Blanchflower is an economist look how his predictions came to fruition
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
But your figures don’t answer the question. You are comparing the UK to the EU, whereas the question at hand is to compare the UK to a counter factual UK that was still in the EU. These are not the same.
I can only tell you what I told you before: you need to take yourself out of the picture. You are not interesting, the place is.
I quite like the viewfrom the perspective of the viewer. When I'm in such a situation, my focus is as much on the anticipation of imminent refreshment than on the pleasant surroundings. It's a less informative view but gives more of a feel of the situation.
Yeah. It puts you *in the moment*
THIS is what it would be like to be having a glass of pleasant dry white wine in Warsaw old town right now
The restored centre really is impressive. Incredible to think they rebuilt it from scratch using photos and maps
Once you get outside that it’s either a weird deserted mini Canary Wharf or Stalinist housing
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
Yes, you look at a country that’s as wealthy as the US & their life expectancy & wonder what on earth is going on.
Last time I looked, IIRC a good chunk of it is people killing themselves with guns, to which they have very easy access. The legally prescribed opioid epidemic is another large chunk, again something that’s unique to the US in scale.
The rest is the consequences of US healthcare issues, which show up almost everywhere. This is why it’s also worth remembering that the US spends 20% of it’s GDP on healthcare, a vast sum compared to peer nations, when making these comparisons. Even when taking this waste into account, the US is still considerably richer on a GDP per capita basis than Western Europe though.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The "estimate" does not bear a moment's scrutiny. The prejudice and bias that allows people to accept it uncritically says so much more.
Do you have any substantial arguments, or is it now considered acceptable legal practice in Scotland to airily explain that things “don’t bear a moment’s scrutiny”?
You’re in denial I’m afraid. Although I suspect that in your part of the world (Dundee?) and in your profession (law), the economy is a somewhat theoretical concept at the best of times.
@Pagan2 has quoted the facts. The projections by the IMF may prove to be wrong. In fact, given their record they almost certainly will be. What exactly are you operating on? A projection by an economist based upon an economic model that would certainly not have forecast the out performance of the last 4 years. I mean seriously, grow up.
Oh how embarrassing. You haven’t even read the article. The argument is not a “projection” or a “forecast”.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
As a Rawlsian experiment, would you rather be born in the USA, UK or, say, Netherlands?
You don’t get to choose your socio-economic status, nor which part of the country to be born/live in.
I would not be choosing the US.
Even if I contend, as I do, that living standards ard higher for the “top 65%”.
I think the problem with the question for me (and it IS a very good question) is that I cannot really be unbiased about it. I am a child of my environment and many, probably the majority, of the things I value stem from my being born in this country. If I were born in another country I would have a different perspective and, I suspect, would find lots of arguments for prefering the country of my birth, whther that were the US or Netherlands.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
Yes, it’s possible that we live in a world where the majority have experienced stagnant income growth with the elite creaming off the profits & since the richest elites live in the US, those profits show up disproportionately in the US.
The US also benefits from lead reserve currency status of course.
To speak literally about the world, income gains in the last 40 years have been incredible, and more equally distributed than before, maybe than ever before. The problem is that the kind of people who use PB, or vote in US/European elections, tend not to be workers in the Chinese or Indian or Kenyan economies.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been aptured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
The USA still has no universal healthcare unlike most western nations and limited welfare state.
Wages on average are higher in the US than here but house prices are higher in the UK than US on average now, especially in London and the home counties, so home owners are wealthier here
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Should the Tories somehow hold Uxbridge narrowly - a result which would indicate that we are headed for a Hung Parliament - it'll be fascinating to see if this prompts Labour to double down on its general election strategy of changing the management of the country but altering policy as little as possible, or if they might be persuaded to budge a few inches further away from Continuity Conservatism. I suspect the former but I'm far from sure of it.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
As a Rawlsian experiment, would you rather be born in the USA, UK or, say, Netherlands?
You don’t get to choose your socio-economic status, nor which part of the country to be born/live in.
I would not be choosing the US.
Even if I contend, as I do, that living standards ard higher for the “top 65%”.
Serious question about Rawls - can anyone help. SFAICS Rawls applies his famous 'behind the veil' thought about how a state should be run, concluding that basic rights and freedoms and attempts at equalisation would be common ground.
How does his theory apply to those not citizens of the state but who are fleeing from elsewhere seeking its refuge. Under Rawls do you say: "Sorry, it is for your state to read Rawls and try harder" or do you say "Welcome you 2 billion people coming from states that don't read Rawls. Join the liberal club and its rights".
I think quite a bit hangs on this as to whether Rawls makes sense or not.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
I accept your Brexit. You said it might be s*** but your perceived return of sovereignty is fair enough a reason to encourage a leave vote. I don't agree, but it is a good enough justification for me.
The ones that get my goat are those lying toerags like Johnson who sold Brexit as being an economic opportunity.
What annoys me most about that is that it actually didn't (and doesn't) have to be that way. Yes there was always going to be a hit on the economy - all change is disruptive but that is not a good enough argument not to change. But May and Johnson chose the very worst forms of change whilst smiling and telling us it was all fine.
It hasn't changed my view of Brexit one iota. Funnily enough it hasn't really changed my view of Johnson or May either. I always knew they were shits and one or two extra data points confirming that view doesn't change anything.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I quoted reliable sources for actual figures....it is not me that is the one with ishoo's you quoted an economist. The definition of the "science of economy" is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday didn't happen. Blanchflower is an economist look how his predictions came to fruition
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
But your figures don’t answer the question. You are comparing the UK to the EU, whereas the question at hand is to compare the UK to a counter factual UK that was still in the EU. These are not the same.
I admit that freely, we cannot run the counterfactual. Yes maybe gdp increased more/less or was about the same. I made no claims or even said we may not of done better in the EU. We simply don't know.
I merely asked Gardenwalker where this 5.5% he claimed we lost was as it would mean we would have had 4% growth per year and showed actual figures saying our gdp since 2019 has gone up by more than the eu .
If he wants to cite some economists theory as graven fact I asked him to give some real world figures which point to his theorist being right. Instead of providing them he has instead attacked me as "angry" and a "crank". I believe I have disputed with him fairly amicably till I got fed up and yes freely admit I do get angry like I did this morning when he suggested benefits and pensions should be cut to fund the nhs pay rise. Take from the poorest to give to some of the richest ethos
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
Your views on the EU are learned but thoroughly blinkered, similar to your views on climate change.
You are the Casaubon of PB, I’m afraid.
My views are based on fact and long study. Yours appear to be based on nothing more than opinion and gut instinct.
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
I accept your Brexit. You said it might be s*** but your perceived return of sovereignty is fair enough a reason to encourage a leave vote. I don't agree, but it is a good enough justification for me.
The ones that get my goat are those lying toerags like Johnson who sold Brexit as being an economic opportunity.
No, Tyndall is also part of the problem. He talks profound bollocks on the subject but poses as some kind of high-minded authority.
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Should the Tories somehow hold Uxbridge narrowly - a result which would indicate that we are headed for a Hung Parliament - it'll be fascinating to see if this prompts Labour to double down on its general election strategy of changing the management of the country but altering policy as little as possible, or if they might be persuaded to budge a few inches further away from Continuity Conservatism. I suspect the former but I'm far from sure of it.
I have tiny sums on Tory for Uxbridge and Selby. Don't worry. Labour are home and dry. My coming losses will balance the small win on Alcaraz.
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
I accept your Brexit. You said it might be s*** but your perceived return of sovereignty is fair enough a reason to encourage a leave vote. I don't agree, but it is a good enough justification for me.
The ones that get my goat are those lying toerags like Johnson who sold Brexit as being an economic opportunity.
What annoys me most about that is that it actually didn't (and doesn't) have to be that way. Yes there was always going to be a hit on the economy - all change is disruptive but that is not a good enough argument not to change. But May and Johnson chose the very worst forms of change whilst smiling and telling us it was all fine.
It hasn't changed my view of Brexit one iota. Funnily enough it hasn't really changed my view of Johnson or May either. I always knew they were shits and one or two extra data points confirming that view doesn't change anything.
You are one of the few Brexiteers who has acknowledged at least in the medium term there would be pain.
Johnson and his chums claimed it would be pain free, land of milk and honey stuff, and they put their b******* on the side of a bus.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
As a Rawlsian experiment, would you rather be born in the USA, UK or, say, Netherlands?
You don’t get to choose your socio-economic status, nor which part of the country to be born/live in.
I would not be choosing the US.
Even if I contend, as I do, that living standards ard higher for the “top 65%”.
Well, the United States has legacies of local slavery and inequality that Europeans cleverly outsourced to their empires.
Even some countries that combined staggering levels of poverty and inequality, have seen living standards both rise sharply, and equalise, over the course of several decades, notably the East Asian tigers. The USA should simply do much better than it does.
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Should the Tories somehow hold Uxbridge narrowly - a result which would indicate that we are headed for a Hung Parliament - it'll be fascinating to see if this prompts Labour to double down on its general election strategy of changing the management of the country but altering policy as little as possible, or if they might be persuaded to budge a few inches further away from Continuity Conservatism. I suspect the former but I'm far from sure of it.
I have tiny sums on Tory for Uxbridge and Selby. Don't worry. Labour are home and dry. My coming losses will balance the small win on Alcaraz.
Oh, I'm not worried. I don't care who wins the by-elections and I don't care who wins the general election either. Firstly there is no point in caring about anything you have no meaningful degree of influence over in the first place (it's as futile as worrying about the inevitability of your own death,) and secondly whichever party is in charge of the levers of power makes the square root of fuck all difference to anything anyway, because there are only two possible winners and you could barely put a cigarette paper between them.
I really can't bring myself to get excited over which group of virtually indistinguishable pols sits in the ministerial limos and which doesn't, nor about a mighty contest of ideas in which the central issue is whether or not Eton gets to keep all its tax reliefs. It's a completely worthless exercise.
Interesting header. Buried in that Brexit thread is this nugget, which is so true:
"Prohibition reminds us that politicians follow more often than they lead."
I increasingly wonder whether it makes much difference which party is in power. As an example, look at the enormous changes in social attitudes towards, and the legal protection of, homosexuality, race, disability, gender, single parents, etc. etc. that have occurred during the past 40 years, 27 of which the traditionally conservative Conservative party has been in power.
Have the Tories championed the rights of, say, gay people, single parents, or disabled people? No, they have merely followed where society led.
Although legal abortion, homosexuality, civil unions and the Equality Act and Sex Discrimination Act were passed under Labour governments. Even homosexual marriage saw most Tory MPs vote against it, even if Cameron backed it, with Labour and LD MPs votes passing it.
The Disability Discrimination Act passed under the Major government though
I sort of think both you and @Benpointer are right. I think @Benpointer point is all these things would have happened anyway under a Conservative Government. They didn't champion them so they would probably have come about slower, but come about they would have as they follow where society moves. Most Conservative MPs are much more socially liberal now than 20 or 50 years ago, as are you, whereas your counterpart Tory activist 50 years ago would have been less so.
A Tory activist of 50 years ago might think you were a bit of a wet liberal by their standards
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Should the Tories somehow hold Uxbridge narrowly - a result which would indicate that we are headed for a Hung Parliament - it'll be fascinating to see if this prompts Labour to double down on its general election strategy of changing the management of the country but altering policy as little as possible, or if they might be persuaded to budge a few inches further away from Continuity Conservatism. I suspect the former but I'm far from sure of it.
My gut is the Tories might squeek Uxbridge but Labour will win Selby on a big swing and the LDs will romp home in Somerton.
Uxbridge will more be an anti ULEZ vote if the Tories win it so I doubt Labour will change much in camp Starmer but camp Khan might panic
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
Your views on the EU are learned but thoroughly blinkered, similar to your views on climate change.
You are the Casaubon of PB, I’m afraid.
My views are based on fact and long study. Yours appear to be based on nothing more than opinion and gut instinct.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The "estimate" does not bear a moment's scrutiny. The prejudice and bias that allows people to accept it uncritically says so much more.
Do you have any substantial arguments, or is it now considered acceptable legal practice in Scotland to airily explain that things “don’t bear a moment’s scrutiny”?
You’re in denial I’m afraid. Although I suspect that in your part of the world (Dundee?) and in your profession (law), the economy is a somewhat theoretical concept at the best of times.
@Pagan2 has quoted the facts. The projections by the IMF may prove to be wrong. In fact, given their record they almost certainly will be. What exactly are you operating on? A projection by an economist based upon an economic model that would certainly not have forecast the out performance of the last 4 years. I mean seriously, grow up.
Oh how embarrassing. You haven’t even read the article. The argument is not a “projection” or a “forecast”.
Yes it is a projection. It is a projection of what our GDP would have been had we NOT left the EU. Which frankly is utter bollocks no matter who is claiming it because no one knows. It could have been we would have had 20% growth. In which case Brexit was even worse. It could have been we would have had no growth or even a long recession. In which case Brexit was a stroke of genius. Neither of the scenarios are realistic but then nor are any other scenarios used to make these comparisons. If the last few years have proved anything it is that economists really don't have a clue.
But you carry on believing in your fantasy 5.5% if it makes you feel better. No one can prove it but then no one can disprove it either so it is perfect for you.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
Yes, you look at a country that’s as wealthy as the US & their life expectancy & wonder what on earth is going on.
Last time I looked, IIRC a good chunk of it is people killing themselves with guns, to which they have very easy access. The legally prescribed opioid epidemic is another large chunk, again something that’s unique to the US in scale.
The rest is the consequences of US healthcare issues, which show up almost everywhere. This is why it’s also worth remembering that the US spends 20% of it’s GDP on healthcare, a vast sum compared to peer nations, when making these comparisons. Even when taking this waste into account, the US is still considerably richer on a GDP per capita basis than Western Europe though.
I've explained the difference on here before, but to repeat:
- Americans work about 12% longer on average than we do - Americans piss away almost three times as much on healthcare as we do per head, for much worse outcomes - the dollar is unusually strong, at the moment, maybe 20% overvalued
These three factors together explain almost all the difference. Added to that a much more skewed income distribution and you see why, when you visit the US, unless you hang out with the vastly wealthy, living standards aren't that different.
(Except in housing, where American houses are 2.5x as big as ours, but there's no way to defend our terrible record in this area, just as there's no way to defend America's gun laws or healthcare).
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Should the Tories somehow hold Uxbridge narrowly - a result which would indicate that we are headed for a Hung Parliament - it'll be fascinating to see if this prompts Labour to double down on its general election strategy of changing the management of the country but altering policy as little as possible, or if they might be persuaded to budge a few inches further away from Continuity Conservatism. I suspect the former but I'm far from sure of it.
The Guardian is reporting that Sir K says he will keep the 2 child rule for child benefit. if true I am surprised. The cost can't be massive, it signals the absolute reverse of any policy which is both humane and child friendly. It says "It's hard having babies in this frenetic world. Let's make a it a bit harder. Let's tell young women who want to do the world's toughest job that we hate them."
If Labour are reading this, note that I normally vote Tory but won't now. The 2 child rule was one of the reasons.
I can only tell you what I told you before: you need to take yourself out of the picture. You are not interesting, the place is.
I quite like the viewfrom the perspective of the viewer. When I'm in such a situation, my focus is as much on the anticipation of imminent refreshment than on the pleasant surroundings. It's a less informative view but gives more of a feel of the situation.
Honestly, for me at least, no. I genuinely enjoyed Leon's pictures of empty streets in [insert name of Godforsaken American hole here], but that was because the concept was interesting: he even threw in a Dutch angle...although I assume that was accidental. But everywhere else he goes, there he is, in the way of the interesting thing, subtracting value not adding it. The whole point of photojournalism is to take yourself out of it, removing the self so the viewer can immerse themselves in the scene.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
I am thinking of a couple of holidays to the USA. You're not selling it to me
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The "estimate" does not bear a moment's scrutiny. The prejudice and bias that allows people to accept it uncritically says so much more.
Do you have any substantial arguments, or is it now considered acceptable legal practice in Scotland to airily explain that things “don’t bear a moment’s scrutiny”?
You’re in denial I’m afraid. Although I suspect that in your part of the world (Dundee?) and in your profession (law), the economy is a somewhat theoretical concept at the best of times.
@Pagan2 has quoted the facts. The projections by the IMF may prove to be wrong. In fact, given their record they almost certainly will be. What exactly are you operating on? A projection by an economist based upon an economic model that would certainly not have forecast the out performance of the last 4 years. I mean seriously, grow up.
Oh how embarrassing. You haven’t even read the article. The argument is not a “projection” or a “forecast”.
Yes it is a projection. It is a projection of what our GDP would have been had we NOT left the EU. Which frankly is utter bollocks no matter who is claiming it because no one knows. It could have been we would have had 20% growth. In which case Brexit was even worse. It could have been we would have had no growth or even a long recession. In which case Brexit was a stroke of genius. Neither of the scenarios are realistic but then nor are any other scenarios used to make these comparisons. If the last few years have proved anything it is that economists really don't have a clue.
But you carry on believing in your fantasy 5.5% if it makes you feel better. No one can prove it but then no one can disprove it either so it is perfect for you.
The High Priestess of Cranks has spoken.
Nobody here has actually read the article, it’s downright hilarious!
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
Yes, it’s possible that we live in a world where the majority have experienced stagnant income growth with the elite creaming off the profits & since the richest elites live in the US, those profits show up disproportionately in the US.
The US also benefits from lead reserve currency status of course.
To speak literally about the world, income gains in the last 40 years have been incredible, and more equally distributed than before, maybe than ever before. The problem is that the kind of people who use PB, or vote in US/European elections, tend not to be workers in the Chinese or Indian or Kenyan economies.
That is something to celebrate. When I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world's population lived in absolute poverty (i think that's defined as $2.15 a day). Now 8% do.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It's extraordinary how the benefits of growth have been captured by the elite.
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
Yes, you look at a country that’s as wealthy as the US & their life expectancy & wonder what on earth is going on.
Last time I looked, IIRC a good chunk of it is people killing themselves with guns, to which they have very easy access. The legally prescribed opioid epidemic is another large chunk, again something that’s unique to the US in scale.
The rest is the consequences of US healthcare issues, which show up almost everywhere. This is why it’s also worth remembering that the US spends 20% of it’s GDP on healthcare, a vast sum compared to peer nations, when making these comparisons. Even when taking this waste into account, the US is still considerably richer on a GDP per capita basis than Western Europe though.
I've explained the difference on here before, but to repeat:
- Americans work about 12% longer on average than we do - Americans piss away almost three times as much on healthcare as we do per head, for much worse outcomes - the dollar is unusually strong, at the moment, maybe 20% overvalued
These three factors together explain almost all the difference. Added to that a much more skewed income distribution and you see why, when you visit the US, unless you hang out with the vastly wealthy, living standards aren't that different.
(Except in housing, where American houses are 2.5x as big as ours, but there's no way to defend our terrible record in this area, just as there's no way to defend America's gun laws or healthcare).
When you look at attempts to decompose these differences (which are real), they do not by any means explain “all” the difference.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
Yes, it’s possible that we live in a world where the majority have experienced stagnant income growth with the elite creaming off the profits & since the richest elites live in the US, those profits show up disproportionately in the US.
The US also benefits from lead reserve currency status of course.
To speak literally about the world, income gains in the last 40 years have been incredible, and more equally distributed than before, maybe than ever before. The problem is that the kind of people who use PB, or vote in US/European elections, tend not to be workers in the Chinese or Indian or Kenyan economies.
That is something to celebrate. When I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world's population lived in absolute poverty (i think that's defined as twice subsistence). Now 8% do.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
I am thinking of a couple of holidays to the USA. You're not selling it to me
If you have kids, it’d argue it’s better than any holiday you’re likely to have in a Europe, bar one of those a French holiday camps (which I’ve never been to).
I can only tell you what I told you before: you need to take yourself out of the picture. You are not interesting, the place is.
I quite like the viewfrom the perspective of the viewer. When I'm in such a situation, my focus is as much on the anticipation of imminent refreshment than on the pleasant surroundings. It's a less informative view but gives more of a feel of the situation.
Honestly, for me at least, no. I genuinely enjoyed Leon's pictures of empty streets in [insert name of Godforsaken American hole here], but that was because the concept was interesting: he even threw in a Dutch angle...although I assume that was accidental. But everywhere else he goes, there he is, in the way of the interesting thing, subtracting value not adding it. The whole point of photojournalism is to take yourself out of it, removing the self so the viewer can immerse themselves in the scene.
I can't explain it but I do enjoy seeing the glass or the bottle in @Leon's picture. It is probably that more than anything that makes me want to be there. But then I do enjoy a drink sitting outside in the warmth watching the world go by.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
Yes, it’s possible that we live in a world where the majority have experienced stagnant income growth with the elite creaming off the profits & since the richest elites live in the US, those profits show up disproportionately in the US.
The US also benefits from lead reserve currency status of course.
To speak literally about the world, income gains in the last 40 years have been incredible, and more equally distributed than before, maybe than ever before. The problem is that the kind of people who use PB, or vote in US/European elections, tend not to be workers in the Chinese or Indian or Kenyan economies.
I do find it difficult to be completely critical of the Chinese (in particular) or the Indians. WHat they have done to improve living standards for their people has been nothing short of incredible. I still don't like them as a country/government - it is unfortunate (to say the least) that they are such an authoritarian state and I do think they are a threat to the West and to our way of life.
But then you have to ask if, had they not been so authoritarian, they would have achieved so much to improve the basic* lives of their people.
*By basic I mean dealing with hunger, sickness, living standards, education etc as opposed to civil rights, freedoms etc.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
I am thinking of a couple of holidays to the USA. You're not selling it to me
I’m clearly trolling. But who would choose to be born in America, now? It is no longer the shining city on the hill
The people banging on the door in Mexico now are very poor, from LatAm, Haiti, Africa. Very few East Asians, Europeans, Australians now go to America just coz it is America. They go for a top university place, or a great job offer, that’s it
So where is THE place to be born, these days? The answer is not clear at all
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Should the Tories somehow hold Uxbridge narrowly - a result which would indicate that we are headed for a Hung Parliament - it'll be fascinating to see if this prompts Labour to double down on its general election strategy of changing the management of the country but altering policy as little as possible, or if they might be persuaded to budge a few inches further away from Continuity Conservatism. I suspect the former but I'm far from sure of it.
I have tiny sums on Tory for Uxbridge and Selby. Don't worry. Labour are home and dry. My coming losses will balance the small win on Alcaraz.
According to Paddy Power, the Conservatives are more likely to hold Somerton & Frome than Uxbridge. S&F has the LDs at 1/25 and the Conservatives at 6s while Uxbridge has Labour at 1/25 and the Conservatives at 9s so if @HYUFD is anywhere near right, 9s is a great trading bet.
On another site, I've predicted Conservative losses in both seats but not by spectacular swings and indeed less than the current polls are showing - the "spectacular" is likely to be Selby & Ainsty.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
I am thinking of a couple of holidays to the USA. You're not selling it to me
If you have kids, it’d argue it’s better than any holiday you’re likely to have in a Europe, bar one of those a French holiday camps (which I’ve never been to).
Well I have cocked that up then because both my kids left home sometime ago, although when they were young guess where we went? Yep, French camp sites.
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Is ULEZ expansion such a big issue outside Nick Ferrari's head?
It is either a seismic event or wishful thinking by Tory activists.
the only people I know who are bothered about it would have voted tory anyway.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
Your views on the EU are learned but thoroughly blinkered, similar to your views on climate change.
You are the Casaubon of PB, I’m afraid.
My views are based on fact and long study. Yours appear to be based on nothing more than opinion and gut instinct.
I am willing to believe that your long study objectively determined an optimal location for UK-EU relationships. One that was some version of "just outside, but with close formal and informal ties". Closer than the May plan, much closer than what Johnson signed up for.
Unfortunately, that plan wouldn't have got anywhere in a referendum. The only way to win that was Freedom On A Stick with a chocolate flake as well. And from that, everything that followed followed. After all the slogan wasn't "Take Back Some Control In Defined Important Areas".
The idea that the moderate Brexit backers could flip 17.4 million Out/16.1 million In to 18 million Sane/15.5 million Loopy ... Brilliant strategy on paper, but not practical politics. Because anything sane would have been a betrayal. Internal Conservative dynamics would have seen to that.
Remainders couldn't save you, even if they had wanted to. Sorry.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
Yes, it’s possible that we live in a world where the majority have experienced stagnant income growth with the elite creaming off the profits & since the richest elites live in the US, those profits show up disproportionately in the US.
The US also benefits from lead reserve currency status of course.
To speak literally about the world, income gains in the last 40 years have been incredible, and more equally distributed than before, maybe than ever before. The problem is that the kind of people who use PB, or vote in US/European elections, tend not to be workers in the Chinese or Indian or Kenyan economies.
That is something to celebrate. When I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world's population lived in absolute poverty (i think that's defined as twice subsistence). Now 8% do.
Which is more, in absolute numbers?
World population in 1967 was 3.5 billion approx. So 55% would be 1.9 billion-ish World population in 2023 is projected at around 8.1billion approx. So 8% would be around 650 million.
Entirely off-topic. Have spent the day up at the father-in-law's villa. Family day, various Spanish relatives coming over. FIL has definitely swung right and vocally supports Vox and despises the government. May not actually vote, but that's where he is.
Anyway, one of his gripes seems to be against changes to Spanish society. Can't wolf-whistle at beautiful women. Ministry of equality promoting women threatens men. Gays being pushed on people.
Then he declares "all these LGBT people are demented." Coooeeee Bisexual man here. Who shaved his legs again this morning. With a non-binary offspring who's in a thruple and whose two previous partners were both trans.
I did manage to giggle rather than call him out. Entertainingly I did manage to slip on "that's the 'why can't I slap my wife' complaint". FFS.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
Yes, it’s possible that we live in a world where the majority have experienced stagnant income growth with the elite creaming off the profits & since the richest elites live in the US, those profits show up disproportionately in the US.
The US also benefits from lead reserve currency status of course.
To speak literally about the world, income gains in the last 40 years have been incredible, and more equally distributed than before, maybe than ever before. The problem is that the kind of people who use PB, or vote in US/European elections, tend not to be workers in the Chinese or Indian or Kenyan economies.
That is something to celebrate. When I was born, in 1967, 55% of the world's population lived in absolute poverty (i think that's defined as twice subsistence). Now 8% do.
Which is more, in absolute numbers?
1.9 bn, in 1967, 700 million, today.
Of course, standards of living remain very poor in much of the world. Half the world's population still live on less than $7 a day.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
I am thinking of a couple of holidays to the USA. You're not selling it to me
I’m clearly trolling. But who would choose to be born in America, now? It is no longer the shining city on the hill
The people banging on the door in Mexico now are very poor, from LatAm, Haiti, Africa. Very few East Asians, Europeans, Australians now go to America just coz it is America. They go for a top university place, or a great job offer, that’s it
So where is THE place to be born, these days? The answer is not clear at all
Huh? Mexico is a much higher-income country than - say - China 30 years ago.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
I am thinking of a couple of holidays to the USA. You're not selling it to me
I’m clearly trolling. But who would choose to be born in America, now? It is no longer the shining city on the hill
The people banging on the door in Mexico now are very poor, from LatAm, Haiti, Africa. Very few East Asians, Europeans, Australians now go to America just coz it is America. They go for a top university place, or a great job offer, that’s it
So where is THE place to be born, these days? The answer is not clear at all
It's better to be in at the start than at the end.
So, it's probably best to be born in a poor country that's going places, with a half-decent government.
A Tory victory in Uxbridge would be seen as a vote of confidence in the current Government. A resounding Labour victory would be seen as a vote of confidence in ULEZ. I think what I'd like to happen therefore is a narrow Labour win, with a larger than expected RefUK vote splitting the right.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
I am thinking of a couple of holidays to the USA. You're not selling it to me
I’m clearly trolling. But who would choose to be born in America, now? It is no longer the shining city on the hill
The people banging on the door in Mexico now are very poor, from LatAm, Haiti, Africa. Very few East Asians, Europeans, Australians now go to America just coz it is America. They go for a top university place, or a great job offer, that’s it
So where is THE place to be born, these days? The answer is not clear at all
If your parents are millionaires or billionaires then yes you would still choose to be born American but for average people most other developed nations are just as good now, if not better
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
Your views on the EU are learned but thoroughly blinkered, similar to your views on climate change.
You are the Casaubon of PB, I’m afraid.
My views are based on fact and long study. Yours appear to be based on nothing more than opinion and gut instinct.
I am willing to believe that your long study objectively determined an optimal location for UK-EU relationships. One that was some version of "just outside, but with close formal and informal ties". Closer than the May plan, much closer than what Johnson signed up for.
Unfortunately, that plan wouldn't have got anywhere in a referendum. The only way to win that was Freedom On A Stick with a chocolate flake as well. And from that, everything that followed followed. After all the slogan wasn't "Take Back Some Control In Defined Important Areas".
The idea that the moderate Brexit backers could flip 17.4 million Out/16.1 million In to 18 million Sane/15.5 million Loopy ... Brilliant strategy on paper, but not practical politics. Because anything sane would have been a betrayal. Internal Conservative dynamics would have seen to that.
Remainders couldn't save you, even if they had wanted to. Sorry.
Of course they could. The numbers were and still are there. Both before and after the Brexit referendum there was a clear majority for an EEA style approach. The polling was done and I included it in a thread header I wrote the day after the vote.
Sadly we lack the politicians with the political will and common sense to do it. At least we did. That may well change going forward.
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Should the Tories somehow hold Uxbridge narrowly - a result which would indicate that we are headed for a Hung Parliament - it'll be fascinating to see if this prompts Labour to double down on its general election strategy of changing the management of the country but altering policy as little as possible, or if they might be persuaded to budge a few inches further away from Continuity Conservatism. I suspect the former but I'm far from sure of it.
The Guardian is reporting that Sir K says he will keep the 2 child rule for child benefit. if true I am surprised. The cost can't be massive, it signals the absolute reverse of any policy which is both humane and child friendly. It says "It's hard having babies in this frenetic world. Let's make a it a bit harder. Let's tell young women who want to do the world's toughest job that we hate them."
If Labour are reading this, note that I normally vote Tory but won't now. The 2 child rule was one of the reasons.
I'm pretty certain that it is true. I didn't see the interview on Kuenssberg this morning because I was out doing something more constructive, but Starmer refused to get rid of the two child limit for the provision of social security to families. It's emblematic of Labour's entire approach, which is to suck up to the grey vote (note that no element of means testing is to be applied to pensioner benefits, so we are somehow too broke to help children who have more than one sibling but have oceans of cash to fund gold-plated handouts for oldies who own million pound houses in Surrey,) whilst telling everybody else to get knotted. It is Conservative policy, with one or two minor cosmetic changes to give the illusion that Starmer doesn't propose to lead yet another Conservative Government.
John Harris in the same paper sums up the Labour approach succinctly as follows: "Right now, Labour is emphasising two contradictory ideas. With one voice, it tells us that we cannot go on like this; but it then changes register, and suggests that is exactly what we are going to have to do." There is no point at all in having a change of Government if all we are going to get is more of the same exhausted, failed, miserable rubbish.
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
I accept your Brexit. You said it might be s*** but your perceived return of sovereignty is fair enough a reason to encourage a leave vote. I don't agree, but it is a good enough justification for me.
The ones that get my goat are those lying toerags like Johnson who sold Brexit as being an economic opportunity.
What annoys me most about that is that it actually didn't (and doesn't) have to be that way. Yes there was always going to be a hit on the economy - all change is disruptive but that is not a good enough argument not to change. But May and Johnson chose the very worst forms of change whilst smiling and telling us it was all fine.
It hasn't changed my view of Brexit one iota. Funnily enough it hasn't really changed my view of Johnson or May either. I always knew they were shits and one or two extra data points confirming that view doesn't change anything.
You are one of the few Brexiteers who has acknowledged at least in the medium term there would be pain.
Johnson and his chums claimed it would be pain free, land of milk and honey stuff, and they put their b******* on the side of a bus.
Thing is, if the Leave campaign had put forward Richard's preferred version of Brexit then Remain would have won by about twenty points. To get the WWC voters in Stoke and Hartlepool to bother turning at the polling stations you needed to say we could have all the benefits of the single market without FoM.
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Should the Tories somehow hold Uxbridge narrowly - a result which would indicate that we are headed for a Hung Parliament - it'll be fascinating to see if this prompts Labour to double down on its general election strategy of changing the management of the country but altering policy as little as possible, or if they might be persuaded to budge a few inches further away from Continuity Conservatism. I suspect the former but I'm far from sure of it.
The Guardian is reporting that Sir K says he will keep the 2 child rule for child benefit. if true I am surprised. The cost can't be massive, it signals the absolute reverse of any policy which is both humane and child friendly. It says "It's hard having babies in this frenetic world. Let's make a it a bit harder. Let's tell young women who want to do the world's toughest job that we hate them."
If Labour are reading this, note that I normally vote Tory but won't now. The 2 child rule was one of the reasons.
Given the average birth rate in the UK is only 1.6, 2 children is above average now
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
I am thinking of a couple of holidays to the USA. You're not selling it to me
I’m clearly trolling. But who would choose to be born in America, now? It is no longer the shining city on the hill
The people banging on the door in Mexico now are very poor, from LatAm, Haiti, Africa. Very few East Asians, Europeans, Australians now go to America just coz it is America. They go for a top university place, or a great job offer, that’s it
So where is THE place to be born, these days? The answer is not clear at all
Huh? Mexico is a much higher-income country than - say - China 30 years ago.
Sure. But the people at the border generally aren’t Mexicans. - who, as you say, are doing OK (if you ignore the awful crime)
They are from Venezuela. Central America, Haiti, Africa, etc
A Tory victory in Uxbridge would be seen as a vote of confidence in the current Government. A resounding Labour victory would be seen as a vote of confidence in ULEZ. I think what I'd like to happen therefore is a narrow Labour win, with a larger than expected RefUK vote splitting the right.
Reform UK aren't standing in Uxbridge, but UKIP and Reclaim are.
There is a reason why the Statue of Liberty isn't inscribed "give me your middle-income earners". It's never been the case that the average European in a normal economy found themselves impelled to migrate to the United States. It was always the persecuted, or folk in backward or starving economies, or enduring ethnic or political repression.
Interesting header. Buried in that Brexit thread is this nugget, which is so true:
"Prohibition reminds us that politicians follow more often than they lead."
I increasingly wonder whether it makes much difference which party is in power. As an example, look at the enormous changes in social attitudes towards, and the legal protection of, homosexuality, race, disability, gender, single parents, etc. etc. that have occurred during the past 40 years, 27 of which the traditionally conservative Conservative party has been in power.
Have the Tories championed the rights of, say, gay people, single parents, or disabled people? No, they have merely followed where society led.
Although legal abortion, homosexuality, civil unions and the Equality Act and Sex Discrimination Act were passed under Labour governments. Even homosexual marriage saw most Tory MPs vote against it, even if Cameron backed it, with Labour and LD MPs votes passing it.
The Disability Discrimination Act passed under the Major government though
I sort of think both you and @Benpointer are right. I think @Benpointer point is all these things would have happened anyway under a Conservative Government. They didn't champion them so they would probably have come about slower, but come about they would have as they follow where society moves. Most Conservative MPs are much more socially liberal now than 20 or 50 years ago, as are you, whereas your counterpart Tory activist 50 years ago would have been less so.
A Tory activist of 50 years ago might think you were a bit of a wet liberal by their standards
Most socially liberal changes come from Labour governments though, most economically liberal changes from Conservative governments
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Is ULEZ expansion such a big issue outside Nick Ferrari's head?
It is either a seismic event or wishful thinking by Tory activists.
the only people I know who are bothered about it would have voted tory anyway.
The Conservatives have whipped the issue up as a stick with which to beat Sadiq Khan who decided (wrongly in my view) to run for a third term as Mayor.
As always, there's a germ of a point - Outer London isn't Inner London. Access to reliable public transport just isn't the same in the outer suburbs and for many a car is vital. In Inner London, 96% of vehicles were ULEZ compliant (including mine). I suspect in Outer London there are more diesels and generally more vehicles which will struggle but some of the numbers I've seen are absurd.
We also have the "air" war - by which I mean those claiming the air in Inner London has dramatically improved with the coming of ULEZ against those who say it's made little or no difference.
It's the one policy the Conservatives have which they think they can use against Labour in London and elsewhere - literally, that's it.
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
I accept your Brexit. You said it might be s*** but your perceived return of sovereignty is fair enough a reason to encourage a leave vote. I don't agree, but it is a good enough justification for me.
The ones that get my goat are those lying toerags like Johnson who sold Brexit as being an economic opportunity.
What annoys me most about that is that it actually didn't (and doesn't) have to be that way. Yes there was always going to be a hit on the economy - all change is disruptive but that is not a good enough argument not to change. But May and Johnson chose the very worst forms of change whilst smiling and telling us it was all fine.
It hasn't changed my view of Brexit one iota. Funnily enough it hasn't really changed my view of Johnson or May either. I always knew they were shits and one or two extra data points confirming that view doesn't change anything.
You are one of the few Brexiteers who has acknowledged at least in the medium term there would be pain.
Johnson and his chums claimed it would be pain free, land of milk and honey stuff, and they put their b******* on the side of a bus.
Thing is, if the Leave campaign had put forward Richard's preferred version of Brexit then Remain would have won by about twenty points. To get the WWC voters in Stoke and Hartlepool to bother turning at the polling stations you needed to say we could have all the benefits of the single market without FoM.
And yet that is almost certainly what we will end up with. Biut it will have taken years longer than it should have. As I say, what it needed was politicians who understood that and were willing to lead rather than follow.
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Is ULEZ expansion such a big issue outside Nick Ferrari's head?
It is either a seismic event or wishful thinking by Tory activists.
the only people I know who are bothered about it would have voted tory anyway.
ULEZ was mentioned at every other door in Uxbridge today, including by undecideds
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Should the Tories somehow hold Uxbridge narrowly - a result which would indicate that we are headed for a Hung Parliament - it'll be fascinating to see if this prompts Labour to double down on its general election strategy of changing the management of the country but altering policy as little as possible, or if they might be persuaded to budge a few inches further away from Continuity Conservatism. I suspect the former but I'm far from sure of it.
The Guardian is reporting that Sir K says he will keep the 2 child rule for child benefit. if true I am surprised. The cost can't be massive, it signals the absolute reverse of any policy which is both humane and child friendly. It says "It's hard having babies in this frenetic world. Let's make a it a bit harder. Let's tell young women who want to do the world's toughest job that we hate them."
If Labour are reading this, note that I normally vote Tory but won't now. The 2 child rule was one of the reasons.
I'm pretty certain that it is true. I didn't see the interview on Kuenssberg this morning because I was out doing something more constructive, but Starmer refused to get rid of the two child limit for the provision of social security to families. It's emblematic of Labour's entire approach, which is to suck up to the grey vote (note that no element of means testing is to be applied to pensioner benefits, so we are somehow too broke to help children who have more than one sibling but have oceans of cash to fund gold-plated handouts for oldies who own million pound houses in Surrey,) whilst telling everybody else to suck it up. It is Conservative policy, with one or two minor cosmetic changes to give the illusion that Starmer doesn't propose to lead yet another Conservative Government.
John Harris in the same paper sums up the Labour approach succinctly as follows: "Right now, Labour is emphasising two contradictory ideas. With one voice, it tells us that we cannot go on like this; but it then changes register, and suggests that is exactly what we are going to have to do." There is no point at all in having a change of Government if all we are going to get is more of the same exhausted, failed, miserable rubbish.
Good evening
Starmer was unequivocal on Kuennssberg this morning that the 2 child rule will remain
I would just comment that Kuennssberg suggested he was a fiscal conservative which he did not deny
Maybe the country needs to wake up that there really is no money
Interesting header. Buried in that Brexit thread is this nugget, which is so true:
"Prohibition reminds us that politicians follow more often than they lead."
I increasingly wonder whether it makes much difference which party is in power. As an example, look at the enormous changes in social attitudes towards, and the legal protection of, homosexuality, race, disability, gender, single parents, etc. etc. that have occurred during the past 40 years, 27 of which the traditionally conservative Conservative party has been in power.
Have the Tories championed the rights of, say, gay people, single parents, or disabled people? No, they have merely followed where society led.
Hmmm…I think you might be right culturally, but not economically. Culture shifts such as shifts in attitudes towards homosexuality make intuitive sense and feel intuitively fair, hence the public can lead on this.
But economic arguments are so much more opaque. How do I as a voter balance the competing claims of low-tax, high-inequality growth-at-all-costs vs state bureaucracy for the purposes of redistributing wealth? I’m constantly befuddled and so easily led.
Which is why we get things like the Trussterfuck (delete and insert your economic folly of choice here) occasionally.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The "estimate" does not bear a moment's scrutiny. The prejudice and bias that allows people to accept it uncritically says so much more.
Do you have any substantial arguments, or is it now considered acceptable legal practice in Scotland to airily explain that things “don’t bear a moment’s scrutiny”?
You’re in denial I’m afraid. Although I suspect that in your part of the world (Dundee?) and in your profession (law), the economy is a somewhat theoretical concept at the best of times.
Yes. The actuality that the UK has consistently outgrown the EU "despite Brexit". See the figures Pagan quoted.
We outgrew them in the 00s despite the supposedly catastrophic decision not to join the Single Currency.
We outgrew them in the 10s despite the supposedly catastrophic decision to Vote Leave.
I fully expect to win my vote with you that we'll outgrow them in the next decade too.
The EU is not some mythical rich fast growing market economy. It's an anchor of sclerosis.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
I am thinking of a couple of holidays to the USA. You're not selling it to me
I’m clearly trolling. But who would choose to be born in America, now? It is no longer the shining city on the hill
The people banging on the door in Mexico now are very poor, from LatAm, Haiti, Africa. Very few East Asians, Europeans, Australians now go to America just coz it is America. They go for a top university place, or a great job offer, that’s it
So where is THE place to be born, these days? The answer is not clear at all
It's better to be in at the start than at the end.
So, it's probably best to be born in a poor country that's going places, with a half-decent government.
Hmm. Good test
“Act as if you are in the early days of a greater nation” as the Scot Nat Alisdair Gray put it
Possibly Chile? Democratic, fairly calm, developing fast, with vast natural resources (and great wine)
Unlikely to be invaded by anyone. A long way from geopolitical strife. Spanish speaking (so connected to a world culture). Shame it’s so weirdly long and slender and also far away from anywhere else that’s interesting
Slovenia? But it’s not poor anymore
If Montenegro can sort out corruption it’s a marvellously beautiful, climatically blessed if tiny country
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It does, but it is inordinately soaked up by the 1%.
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
Yes, it’s possible that we live in a world where the majority have experienced stagnant income growth with the elite creaming off the profits & since the richest elites live in the US, those profits show up disproportionately in the US.
The US also benefits from lead reserve currency status of course.
To speak literally about the world, income gains in the last 40 years have been incredible, and more equally distributed than before, maybe than ever before. The problem is that the kind of people who use PB, or vote in US/European elections, tend not to be workers in the Chinese or Indian or Kenyan economies.
I do find it difficult to be completely critical of the Chinese (in particular) or the Indians. WHat they have done to improve living standards for their people has been nothing short of incredible. I still don't like them as a country/government - it is unfortunate (to say the least) that they are such an authoritarian state and I do think they are a threat to the West and to our way of life.
But then you have to ask if, had they not been so authoritarian, they would have achieved so much to improve the basic* lives of their people.
*By basic I mean dealing with hunger, sickness, living standards, education etc as opposed to civil rights, freedoms etc.
Well, they went down a rabbit hole with Mao, from 1949 to 1976. Deng Xiao Ping thought that Chinese living standards were scarcely higher in 1976 than twenty years earlier, and for that, the Chinese had to endure famine, and repression.
The achievements from 1976 have still been hugely impressive. Could a less authoritarian China have done this? My own view is probably yes, South Korea and Taiwan grew steadily less auhtoritarian from the 1970's, and did even better than China.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
An entirely fair point. Much of the argument is two bald men fighting over a comb. Neither the UK, nor most EU nations, are achieving more than weak growth.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s not just “standard of living” it’s quality of life
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
I am thinking of a couple of holidays to the USA. You're not selling it to me
I’m clearly trolling. But who would choose to be born in America, now? It is no longer the shining city on the hill
The people banging on the door in Mexico now are very poor, from LatAm, Haiti, Africa. Very few East Asians, Europeans, Australians now go to America just coz it is America. They go for a top university place, or a great job offer, that’s it
So where is THE place to be born, these days? The answer is not clear at all
Huh? Mexico is a much higher-income country than - say - China 30 years ago.
Sure. But the people at the border generally aren’t Mexicans. - who, as you say, are doing OK (if you ignore the awful crime)
They are from Venezuela. Central America, Haiti, Africa, etc
It's noticeable - I've been told - that there is a hugely out-sized % of performers on sites like chaturbate who come from Venezuela but describe themselves as 'Colombian'.
Comments
You’re in denial I’m afraid.
Although I suspect that in your part of the world (Dundee?) and in your profession (law), the economy is a somewhat theoretical concept at the best of times.
When I was at boarding school the boy in the next bed had a poster above his bed with Snoopy from Charlie Brown. It said: "I'm going to start being sensible tomorrow!". Thankfully, tomorrow never comes.
"Prohibition reminds us that politicians follow more often than they lead."
I increasingly wonder whether it makes much difference which party is in power. As an example, look at the enormous changes in social attitudes towards, and the legal protection of, homosexuality, race, disability, gender, single parents, etc. etc. that have occurred during the past 40 years, 27 of which the traditionally conservative Conservative party has been in power.
Have the Tories championed the rights of, say, gay people, single parents, or disabled people? No, they have merely followed where society led.
(Just kidding - unless your canine companion is very able AND avid swimmer.)
The other angle to this is that the next Labour government will presumably be more forthcoming than the current one about what they know about the degree to which Brexit was a Russian op.
Although, a further issue with the US is why does its impressive growth rate simply not show up in the living standards of so much of its population? So many complaints one hears from the US about stagnant real wages sound very familiar.
It’s a counterfactual, based on a basket of analogous economies.
You can minge about whether the basket/doppelgänger concept is even appropriate, and/or you could cavil about the especial weightings maybe?
OR, like DavidL you could just dismiss it like Humpty Dumpty in Alice in Wonderland.
So it does make a difference, but not as much as people may think (people tend toward the two extremes - they are all the same/one is evil, one is good).
At local level it makes almost no difference, as national rules and constraints apply, and there is not much wiggle room beyond that.
And, just for PB, Big Guns by R. Tillery
There may be a clue here somewhere about what happens to economies when income is concentrated in a gilded elite.
It is either a seismic event or wishful thinking by Tory activists.
The Disability Discrimination Act passed under the Major government though
The median standard of living in the USA is 25% higher than here. It simply should not have a life expectancy that's four years lower.
Just because everyone around you also feels unwell doesn’t make it useful to cut off your own leg, nor will it help you walk again.
Those who are angry about War On Cars stuff are really angry about it.
Those who quite like it... quite like it.
If you're doing talk radio, the first is all you need. If you're a struggling political party, they give you a nucleus to work with. But if you want to win an election, it's probably not enough.
The US also benefits from lead reserve currency status of course.
You don’t get to choose your socio-economic status, nor which part of the country to be born/live in.
I would not be choosing the US.
Even if I contend, as I do, that living standards ard higher for the “top 65%”.
See South America for details.
Also, the American South before the Civil War, to go back to the book I’m supposed to be reading.
The reality is the Brexit status quo is unsustainable and eventually one or both parties will give the people what they want, that’s politics
OK. Here are the real questions and issues:
Brexit poses two problems very like the problem of NI.
(a) What is that the majority actually want, of the sort which can be translated into policy and practice
and
(b) When you have decided that, can it be be done in a manner which is itself sustainable and has 'losers consent' - will those who don't agree accept is sufficiently well that our sort of democracy is preserved. (The sort of problem of NI politics and increasingly in USA politics).
My view of (a) is that no-one, including me, Sir K and Rishi, has any idea and for (b) my view is that 'losers consent' is unlikely.
When in that situation I have described, and without guns and bombs, you tinker with the status quo until you can't.
I don't like this because I want to join EFTA/EEA. I hope Sir K can do a Swiss style imitation of this but for these reasons I doubt if heb can.
In both cases, you can't do a double blind controlled test, so you have to fudge an alternative. And that is always messy, so deniers gonna deny. Especially since acknowledging the problems means accepting painful adjustments.
But Brexit Backers promised us a Nike Swoosh. (I'm not sure they said when, or how, but... details.)
When does that happen, please?
THIS is what it would be like to be having a glass of pleasant dry white wine in Warsaw old town right now
The restored centre really is impressive. Incredible to think they rebuilt it from scratch using photos and maps
Once you get outside that it’s either a weird deserted mini Canary Wharf or Stalinist housing
But the people are good fun
Last time I looked, IIRC a good chunk of it is people killing themselves with guns, to which they have very easy access. The legally prescribed opioid epidemic is another large chunk, again something that’s unique to the US in scale.
The rest is the consequences of US healthcare issues, which show up almost everywhere. This is why it’s also worth remembering that the US spends 20% of it’s GDP on healthcare, a vast sum compared to peer nations, when making these comparisons. Even when taking this waste into account, the US is still considerably richer on a GDP per capita basis than Western Europe though.
You haven’t even read the article.
The argument is not a “projection” or a “forecast”.
Wages on average are higher in the US than here but house prices are higher in the UK than US on average now, especially in London and the home counties, so home owners are wealthier here
How does his theory apply to those not citizens of the state but who are fleeing from elsewhere seeking its refuge. Under Rawls do you say: "Sorry, it is for your state to read Rawls and try harder" or do you say "Welcome you 2 billion people coming from states that don't read Rawls. Join the liberal club and its rights".
I think quite a bit hangs on this as to whether Rawls makes sense or not.
Yeah great you earn $120k a year but you have to drive everywhere, everyone is obese, your local downtown is a car lot, the local suburb is full of dangerous tranq addicts, you get one week holiday a year, the food is execrable, the landscapes are often dull, you have to fly ten hours to get anywhere that isn’t America and your kids have a 17% chance of being shot dead in kindergarten
It hasn't changed my view of Brexit one iota. Funnily enough it hasn't really changed my view of Johnson or May either. I always knew they were shits and one or two extra data points confirming that view doesn't change anything.
I merely asked Gardenwalker where this 5.5% he claimed we lost was as it would mean we would have had 4% growth per year and showed actual figures saying our gdp since 2019 has gone up by more than the eu .
If he wants to cite some economists theory as graven fact I asked him to give some real world figures which point to his theorist being right. Instead of providing them he has instead attacked me as "angry" and a "crank". I believe I have disputed with him fairly amicably till I got fed up and yes freely admit I do get angry like I did this morning when he suggested benefits and pensions should be cut to fund the nhs pay rise. Take from the poorest to give to some of the richest ethos
Johnson and his chums claimed it would be pain free, land of milk and honey stuff, and they put their b******* on the side of a bus.
I really can't bring myself to get excited over which group of virtually indistinguishable pols sits in the ministerial limos and which doesn't, nor about a mighty contest of ideas in which the central issue is whether or not Eton gets to keep all its tax reliefs. It's a completely worthless exercise.
A Tory activist of 50 years ago might think you were a bit of a wet liberal by their standards
Uxbridge will more be an anti ULEZ vote if the Tories win it so I doubt Labour will change much in camp Starmer but camp Khan might panic
But you carry on believing in your fantasy 5.5% if it makes you feel better. No one can prove it but then no one can disprove it either so it is perfect for you.
- Americans work about 12% longer on average than we do
- Americans piss away almost three times as much on healthcare as we do per head, for much worse outcomes
- the dollar is unusually strong, at the moment, maybe 20% overvalued
These three factors together explain almost all the difference. Added to that a much more skewed income distribution and you see why, when you visit the US, unless you hang out with the vastly wealthy, living standards aren't that different.
(Except in housing, where American houses are 2.5x as big as ours, but there's no way to defend our terrible record in this area, just as there's no way to defend America's gun laws or healthcare).
If Labour are reading this, note that I normally vote Tory but won't now. The 2 child rule was one of the reasons.
Nobody here has actually read the article, it’s downright hilarious!
But there’s a different pattern.
And overall, I can well believe that Americans work 16% longer overall.
But then you have to ask if, had they not been so authoritarian, they would have achieved so much to improve the basic* lives of their people.
*By basic I mean dealing with hunger, sickness, living standards, education etc as opposed to civil rights, freedoms etc.
The people banging on the door in Mexico now are very poor, from LatAm, Haiti, Africa. Very few East Asians, Europeans, Australians now go to America just coz it is America. They go for a top university place, or a great job offer, that’s it
So where is THE place to be born, these days? The answer is not clear at all
On another site, I've predicted Conservative losses in both seats but not by spectacular swings and indeed less than the current polls are showing - the "spectacular" is likely to be Selby & Ainsty.
Unfortunately, that plan wouldn't have got anywhere in a referendum. The only way to win that was Freedom On A Stick with a chocolate flake as well. And from that, everything that followed followed. After all the slogan wasn't "Take Back Some Control In Defined Important Areas".
The idea that the moderate Brexit backers could flip 17.4 million Out/16.1 million In to 18 million Sane/15.5 million Loopy ... Brilliant strategy on paper, but not practical politics. Because anything sane would have been a betrayal. Internal Conservative dynamics would have seen to that.
Remainders couldn't save you, even if they had wanted to. Sorry.
World population in 2023 is projected at around 8.1billion approx. So 8% would be around 650 million.
Big drop in real numbers as well as %
We seem to get many more bank holidays and are encouraged to take longer weekends.
Anyway, one of his gripes seems to be against changes to Spanish society. Can't wolf-whistle at beautiful women. Ministry of equality promoting women threatens men. Gays being pushed on people.
Then he declares "all these LGBT people are demented." Coooeeee
I did manage to giggle rather than call him out. Entertainingly I did manage to slip on "that's the 'why can't I slap my wife' complaint". FFS.
Of course, standards of living remain very poor in much of the world. Half the world's population still live on less than $7 a day.
So, it's probably best to be born in a poor country that's going places, with a half-decent government.
Sadly we lack the politicians with the political will and common sense to do it. At least we did. That may well change going forward.
John Harris in the same paper sums up the Labour approach succinctly as follows: "Right now, Labour is emphasising two contradictory ideas. With one voice, it tells us that we cannot go on like this; but it then changes register, and suggests that is exactly what we are going to have to do." There is no point at all in having a change of Government if all we are going to get is more of the same exhausted, failed, miserable rubbish.
They are from Venezuela. Central America, Haiti, Africa, etc
As always, there's a germ of a point - Outer London isn't Inner London. Access to reliable public transport just isn't the same in the outer suburbs and for many a car is vital. In Inner London, 96% of vehicles were ULEZ compliant (including mine). I suspect in Outer London there are more diesels and generally more vehicles which will struggle but some of the numbers I've seen are absurd.
We also have the "air" war - by which I mean those claiming the air in Inner London has dramatically improved with the coming of ULEZ against those who say it's made little or no difference.
It's the one policy the Conservatives have which they think they can use against Labour in London and elsewhere - literally, that's it.
Starmer was unequivocal on Kuennssberg this morning that the 2 child rule will remain
I would just comment that Kuennssberg suggested he was a fiscal conservative which he did not deny
Maybe the country needs to wake up that there really is no money
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/16/labour-keep-two-child-benefit-cap-says-keir-starmer?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
But economic arguments are so much more opaque. How do I as a voter balance the competing claims of low-tax, high-inequality growth-at-all-costs vs state bureaucracy for the purposes of redistributing wealth? I’m constantly befuddled and so easily led.
Which is why we get things like the Trussterfuck (delete and insert your economic folly of choice here) occasionally.
We outgrew them in the 00s despite the supposedly catastrophic decision not to join the Single Currency.
We outgrew them in the 10s despite the supposedly catastrophic decision to Vote Leave.
I fully expect to win my vote with you that we'll outgrow them in the next decade too.
The EU is not some mythical rich fast growing market economy. It's an anchor of sclerosis.
“Act as if you are in the early days of a greater nation” as the Scot Nat Alisdair Gray put it
Possibly Chile? Democratic, fairly calm, developing fast, with vast natural resources (and great wine)
Unlikely to be invaded by anyone. A long way from geopolitical strife. Spanish speaking (so connected to a world culture). Shame it’s so weirdly long and slender and also far away from anywhere else that’s interesting
Slovenia? But it’s not poor anymore
If Montenegro can sort out corruption it’s a marvellously beautiful, climatically blessed if tiny country
The achievements from 1976 have still been hugely impressive. Could a less authoritarian China have done this? My own view is probably yes, South Korea and Taiwan grew steadily less auhtoritarian from the 1970's, and did even better than China.