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Brexiteers, you may need a stiff drink – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    edited July 2023
    Both Brexit and Rejoin have been treated as magic pills, which make our economic problems go away.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Wow, Alcaraz gets the second set 7-6!

    One set all.

    Is that wow? It says here he is world no. 1.

    Pat, pat, pat. They don't call it The Predictable Game for nothing.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    A//

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    That looks like part of the nicer areas of Leeds.
    Looks quite a high standard of building with decent sized rooms. Better than much British housing.
    Yes. If that's supposed to be a "Look how crap Polish building are compared to the UK" picture, then I would be tempted to think the taker hasn't seen much of the UK (which I know isn't true, so is a bit confusing)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    I have a strange feeling people like you - and all these youthful liberal Remainers - will change your minds a tad when the EU is run by populist, seriously hard right governments from Madrid to Stockholm, and from Rome to Budapest
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Alcaraz breaks the Novax serve early in the third set!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    Yet young people who voted Remain in 1975, voted Leave in 2016.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Miklosvar said:

    Wow, Alcaraz gets the second set 7-6!

    One set all.

    Is that wow? It says here he is world no. 1.

    Pat, pat, pat. They don't call it The Predictable Game for nothing.
    Was the first set score of 6-1 to Novax, predictable??
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Leon said:

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    I have a strange feeling people like you - and all these youthful liberal Remainers - will change your minds a tad when the EU is run by populist, seriously hard right governments from Madrid to Stockholm, and from Rome to Budapest
    Why? It would make it feel more like Britain.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    A//

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    That looks like part of the nicer areas of Leeds.
    Have you ever been to Leeds? The nicer areas of Leeds are lovely.
    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011




    How come Poundbury is bad and evil and pastiche yet this is noble and worthy and UNESCO-able?

    What the photo doesn’t show is that the fairly run down shit begins two blocks from here and that’s even in the lovely restored area

    I went to Poundbury about 15 years ago and it was disappointing. It just felt fake, and seemed to be a kind of dormitory for cars.

    Otherwise, I agree.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,476
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    I have a strange feeling people like you - and all these youthful liberal Remainers - will change your minds a tad when the EU is run by populist, seriously hard right governments from Madrid to Stockholm, and from Rome to Budapest
    Why? It would make it feel more like Britain.
    And political pendulum swings are shortlived. Particularly incoherent "old man shouts at cloud" right wing popularism.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Miklosvar said:

    Wow, Alcaraz gets the second set 7-6!

    One set all.

    Is that wow? It says here he is world no. 1.

    Pat, pat, pat. They don't call it The Predictable Game for nothing.
    Was the first set score of 6-1 to Novax, predictable??
    I didn't see it I was out riding a mountain bike

    Btw I am watching and my iPlayer feed is about 1 minute behind you, so if you could be a bit slower with the updates...
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,280

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates asserts. Millennials aren't changing there mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    We've discussed Brexit on this thread as an economic and practical issue but, of course, the vote was primarily on identity lines. The boomers have an identity created in a UK that wasn't a member of the EU, but those born after the UK joined have a different identity, and took membership of the EU for granted as part of that identity.

    So perhaps the critical question for the future of Brexit is whether it can survive long enough to see a new generation reach voting age. One that takes Brexit for granted as just one of those things that is, and that would regard joining the EU as being a bit of a weird disruption to the status quo, as weird as most people would regard any proposal to join the US, or to create a CANZUK union.
    Pretty unlikely Generation alpha will be pro-Brexit unless Brexiteers can actually put forward some centre-left arguments to stay out the EU. If Brexit continues to be associated with the likes of Farage, Johnson, Mogg, the ERG, free market libertarians, and anti-immigration sentiment, then the Alphas will probably be very pro-EU.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672
    edited July 2023
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    A//

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    That looks like part of the nicer areas of Leeds.
    Looks quite a high standard of building with decent sized rooms. Better than much British housing.
    You ignorant fool. It’s the centre of old Warsaw which was completely rebuilt in its 17th-19th century form after World War 2. Of course it is nobly proportioned. It’s a copy of an aristocratic city centre from previous centuries

    Actual housing in Poland does not look like this
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    Sean_F said:

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    Yet young people who voted Remain in 1975, voted Leave in 2016.
    Has there been any polling to verify that?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672
    The beer is excellent





  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Fishing said:

    I don’t even think it’s really even possible to untangle Brexit from other issues, cleanly.

    In essence, Britain is a society that has become over-fianancialised, over-rentierized, and too old.

    No.

    Over-financialized - the share of our GDP generated by financial services (8%) is about the same as the US (7%) or Switzerland (9%), both of which have much higher income levels.

    Over rentierized - God knows what that means.

    Too old - the UK's average age is 40.6, which is much younger than Germany's (47.8), Japan (48.6), Spain (43.9), Switzerland (42.7) and France (41.7). Amongst big advancd economies, only the United States (38.5) has a significantly lower average age. Maybe we should all eat even more fatty foods, take opioids and start shooting each other?

    https://www.worlddata.info/average-age.php

    Our problem is that we don't have sensible free market supply-side economic policies, and haven't had them for a couple of decades, since we've had lazy Jim Hacker-style governments which coasted on the success of the 1980s reforms, undermining them when they should have been consolidating and extending them.
    Thanks for these stats.

    When I say “over-financialised” I mean that the UK finance sector sucks up the best and brightest and is failing to deliver productivity.

    Britain’s finance sector has grown massively over the last 40 years, but investment (ie the traditional role of the finance sector) in the domestic UK economy seems worse than ever.

    Rentierism is much essayed on here. It covers everything from the rise (and current decline) of BTL to the current collapse of Thames Water finances.

    Britain’s demographics ard actually a modest bright spot, but there’s no denying that old people have a death grip on the electoral system and have used it to reward themselves at the expense of working, productive people.


  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    Yet young people who voted Remain in 1975, voted Leave in 2016.
    Has there been any polling to verify that?
    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

    60% of 18-29 years olds voted remain in 1975. By 2016, the same age cohort voted 60% against.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Sean_F said:

    Both Brexit and Rejoin have been treated as magic pills, which make our economic problems go away.

    That’s true, but it’s a bit rich coming from someone who eagerly ingested the first of those pills.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,280

    Sean_F said:

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    Yet young people who voted Remain in 1975, voted Leave in 2016.
    Has there been any polling to verify that?
    Pretty sure young people were the most eurosceptic generation in 75. The older war generation were much more in favour of staying in the common market.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    Miklosvar said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Wow, Alcaraz gets the second set 7-6!

    One set all.

    Is that wow? It says here he is world no. 1.

    Pat, pat, pat. They don't call it The Predictable Game for nothing.
    Was the first set score of 6-1 to Novax, predictable??
    I didn't see it I was out riding a mountain bike

    Btw I am watching and my iPlayer feed is about 1 minute behind you, so if you could be a bit slower with the updates...
    Well the UFO landing in the court was unexpected
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    edited July 2023

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    I have a strange feeling people like you - and all these youthful liberal Remainers - will change your minds a tad when the EU is run by populist, seriously hard right governments from Madrid to Stockholm, and from Rome to Budapest
    You think that Remainers/Rejoiners have such superior critical thinking skills that they will react to the changing political complexion of the EU, rather than practice the self-deception exercised by Leave voters that convinced so many of them that the UK could leave the EU, while retaining all the free trade benefits of EU membership?

    I guess it's possible, but I rather think that the pro-EU identity among the young is strong enough to withstand the possible future reality of populist hard-right EU governments. Step one of the self-deception will be the argument that such hard-right governments are still to the left of the "evul Torees", for example.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.
    At least the Poles did it properly instead of building brutalist concrete monstrosities. It certainly looks better than Coventry.
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 309
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    Both Brexit and Rejoin have been treated as magic pills, which make our economic problems go away.

    That’s true, but it’s a bit rich coming from someone who eagerly ingested the first of those pills.
    My objection to EU membership was political. I was not on board with ever closer political integration. Nor were you, at the time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    CatMan said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Wow, Alcaraz gets the second set 7-6!

    One set all.

    Is that wow? It says here he is world no. 1.

    Pat, pat, pat. They don't call it The Predictable Game for nothing.
    Was the first set score of 6-1 to Novax, predictable??
    I didn't see it I was out riding a mountain bike

    Btw I am watching and my iPlayer feed is about 1 minute behind you, so if you could be a bit slower with the updates...
    Well the UFO landing in the court was unexpected
    Yes, that was one of the more impressive lett calls.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Peck said:

    There could yet be a by-election in Wyre and Preston North before the end of this parliament.

    Disagreement between Wallace and Braverman over whether the number of service personnel sent to cover for border guards should be 250 or 750 is classic media whooshing of the far more important issue of whether or not to increase the arming of Ukraine and to keep on giving those lovely victimised darlings whatever they want because 100% of the aid will go to a 100% pure cause with 100% certainty that that's the best thing for Britain, and anyone who says otherwise can get back to Russia, foam foam, bring back flogging, how's yer pal Putin, eh, etc.

    At the same time, it's Wallace saying the government are disrespecting both the armed forces and everyone who lands at a British airport which of course in summertime includes many British citizens returning from holidays abroad.

    Probably odds-on that Wallace will resign his seat before the election. Question is whether he makes the announcement before next Thursday's by-elections or after. He might do it on Friday or on Saturday in time for Sunday papers. Sure, there's the intermediate course of just resigning as defence secretary, but to give his kick maximum force he should follow current fashion and flounce from his seat too.

    Saying the government is sh***ing on holidaymakers won't be good for the Tory vote next week. Ben is right narked. I hope he minds how he goes.

    If Wallace is (as presumably are other ministers) leaving the Cabinet to start running down the clock on getting some remunerative directorships, then also resigning as an MP gets him precisely nowhere and might even tarnish his brand. And if he stays, he can change his mind in the fullness of time and stand for election as Rishi's replacement when the time comes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.

    Er, yes. I know. I’ve just spent 3 hours in the powerful Warsaw Uprising museum. My god the stuff the Germans did

    I had no idea that during the Uprising, and just for the fuck of it, the Germans went to an outlying district - Wola - and shot dead 40,000 civilians in cold blood in about a week

    They dragged them out of their houses. Men women and babies. Bang bang bang

    It is quite remarkable that the Poles have managed to forgive the Germans to the extent they have. And the EU must take some credit, in part, for that

    I also didn’t know the Polish communists forbade mention of the Uprising for decades, in case it nurtured “patriotic” and anti-Soviet feelings. Memories and documents were deliberately silenced and destroyed

    No wonder they loathe the commies here
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.

    Er, yes. I know. I’ve just spent 3 hours in the powerful Warsaw Uprising museum. My god the stuff the Germans did

    I had no idea that during the Uprising, and just for the fuck of it, the Germans went to an outlying district - Wola - and shot dead 40,000 civilians in cold blood in about a week

    They dragged them out of their houses. Men women and babies. Bang bang bang

    It is quite remarkable that the Poles have managed to forgive the Germans to the extent they have. And the EU must take some credit, in part, for that

    I also didn’t know the Polish communists forbade mention of the Uprising for decades, in case it nurtured “patriotic” and anti-Soviet feelings. Memories and documents were deliberately silenced and destroyed

    No wonder they loathe the commies here
    Sturmbrigade Dirlewanger was simply the most loathsome unit in any army in Europe in WW2.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,982

    Leon said:

    A//

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    That looks like part of the nicer areas of Leeds.
    No obvious signs of damp on the walls or string course, no vegetation on the roof, windows and secondary windows well maintained - of course they should have used real stone quoins, but that’s standard European practice.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.
    At least the Poles did it properly instead of building brutalist concrete monstrosities. It certainly looks better than Coventry.
    Can’t argue with that. I wish we’d had the same good sense as much of Eastern Europe. Which has rebuilt its towns exactly as they were

    We built hideous crap
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Alcaraz breaks the Novax serve early in the third set!

    So Novax is wasting time in order for Alcaraz to develop cramp (like he did in Paris against Djokovic).

    It's cheating, plain and simple.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Miklosvar said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Wow, Alcaraz gets the second set 7-6!

    One set all.

    Is that wow? It says here he is world no. 1.

    Pat, pat, pat. They don't call it The Predictable Game for nothing.
    Was the first set score of 6-1 to Novax, predictable??
    I didn't see it I was out riding a mountain bike

    Btw I am watching and my iPlayer feed is about 1 minute behind you, so if you could be a bit slower with the updates...
    Just get yourself home and watch on TV like the rest of us :lol:

    BTW 3-1 to Alcaraz in the third.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,791
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    A//

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    That looks like part of the nicer areas of Leeds.
    Looks quite a high standard of building with decent sized rooms. Better than much British housing.
    Yes. If that's supposed to be a "Look how crap Polish building are compared to the UK" picture, then I would be tempted to think the taker hasn't seen much of the UK (which I know isn't true, so is a bit confusing)
    I think Leon only ever sees the nice bits of the UK. I don't think he gets just how shit places like Newport, Middlesbrough, Stoke, Bognor Regis, Southend-on-Sea, are.

    The reason why I was taken aback by his "isn't this bit shit?" when posting rather a nice Polish building is because it reminded me of other buildings in nice places:

    St John St, Oxford: https://goo.gl/maps/KaFuUmE1y2LiVVNq5
    St Peter St, Winchester: https://goo.gl/maps/yi6XboyDiS3vcUAG9
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.
    At least the Poles did it properly instead of building brutalist concrete monstrosities. It certainly looks better than Coventry.
    Can’t argue with that. I wish we’d had the same good sense as much of Eastern Europe. Which has rebuilt its towns exactly as they were

    We built hideous crap
    You are the Prince of Wales King Charles III AICMFP.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672
    edited July 2023

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    I have a strange feeling people like you - and all these youthful liberal Remainers - will change your minds a tad when the EU is run by populist, seriously hard right governments from Madrid to Stockholm, and from Rome to Budapest
    You think that Remainers/Rejoiners have such superior critical thinking skills that they will react to the changing political complexion of the EU, rather than practice the self-deception exercised by Leave voters that convinced so many of them that the UK could leave the EU, while retaining all the free trade benefits of EU membership?

    I guess it's possible, but I rather think that the pro-EU identity among the young is strong enough to withstand the possible future reality of populist hard-right EU governments. Step one of the self-deception will be the argument that such hard-right governments are still to the left of the "evul Torees", for example.
    Scot Nats have been pointing at young Yes voters for a decade, saying Just you wait til they become the majority and the old No voters die out

    Hasn’t happened. Stasis

    My guess is that the young will grow up accustomed to Brexit, and as the EU diverges further from us in multiple ways, they will not be inclined to change it. Too much hassle, too much surrender of sovereignty, too much risk of a humiliating veto from the frogs or the Irish.

    This does not mean there won’t be further irritation and pain from Brexit. There will. But there will also be increasing opportunities

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    Yet young people who voted Remain in 1975, voted Leave in 2016.
    Has there been any polling to verify that?
    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

    60% of 18-29 years olds voted remain in 1975. By 2016, the same age cohort voted 60% against.
    Thanks @Sean_F. Interestingly, that generation were the least in favour of Europe both in 1975 and 2016.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.
    At least the Poles did it properly instead of building brutalist concrete monstrosities. It certainly looks better than Coventry.
    Well, I should know, I worked there 2013-2018 :)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    viewcode said:

    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    A//

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    That looks like part of the nicer areas of Leeds.
    Looks quite a high standard of building with decent sized rooms. Better than much British housing.
    Yes. If that's supposed to be a "Look how crap Polish building are compared to the UK" picture, then I would be tempted to think the taker hasn't seen much of the UK (which I know isn't true, so is a bit confusing)
    I think Leon only ever sees the nice bits of the UK. I don't think he gets just how shit places like Newport, Middlesbrough, Stoke, Bognor Regis, Southend-on-Sea, are.

    The reason why I was taken aback by his "isn't this bit shit?" when posting rather a nice Polish building is because it reminded me of other buildings in nice places:

    St John St, Oxford: https://goo.gl/maps/KaFuUmE1y2LiVVNq5
    St Peter St, Winchester: https://goo.gl/maps/yi6XboyDiS3vcUAG9
    Nah, it is Schroedinger's Poland. Once Leon realises the Polish government is doing cod-reactionary policies about Muslims, he will discover a beautiful street and post it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    geoffw said:

    What a tennis match

    Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).

    That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.

    Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.

    The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that.
    Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.

    I prefer Posen's prescription of tightening monetary policy, 'leaning in' to global Britain and thinking like a small country.
    I agree with that (apart from tightening monetary policy) but none of that undermines the fact that Brexit sucked and sucks.
    You have a vested interest in loose monetary policy.
    Looser, yes.
    But I think anyway I’m unconvinced that the transmission works like it used to, and I’m also bullish (bearish?) on deflationary risk.
    The sector that has been subject to the most deflation in recent decades also happens to be the one that has been the most successful and innovative.
    I don’t know what that’s supposed to mean exactly but as I say, I think the chances of outright deflation outweigh the chances of ongoing soaring inflation in the medium term.
    Why is outright deflation a bad thing? It was quite normal until the modern era.

    image
    Deflation discourages spending now in favour of spending later when prices have fallen, so stifles economic activity. There is a good reason why central banks target ~2% inflation, not price stability.
    That is the often quoted reason, but it doesn't really bear scrutiny. Progress should mean a widget is cheaper!

    The real reason central banks like inflation is that erodes all the government debt.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.
    At least the Poles did it properly instead of building brutalist concrete monstrosities. It certainly looks better than Coventry.
    Well, I should know, I worked there 2013-2018 :)
    The two blocks behind the fountain, to be fair, look quite brutalist and monstrous.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.

    Er, yes. I know. I’ve just spent 3 hours in the powerful Warsaw Uprising museum. My god the stuff the Germans did

    I had no idea that during the Uprising, and just for the fuck of it, the Germans went to an outlying district - Wola - and shot dead 40,000 civilians in cold blood in about a week

    They dragged them out of their houses. Men women and babies. Bang bang bang

    It is quite remarkable that the Poles have managed to forgive the Germans to the extent they have. And the EU must take some credit, in part, for that

    I also didn’t know the Polish communists forbade mention of the Uprising for decades, in case it nurtured “patriotic” and anti-Soviet feelings. Memories and documents were deliberately silenced and destroyed

    No wonder they loathe the commies here
    Sturmbrigade Dirlewanger was simply the most loathsome unit in any army in Europe in WW2.
    The Nazis were the bad guys, then? We should add that note to the Churchill statue they keep defacing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.

    Er, yes. I know. I’ve just spent 3 hours in the powerful Warsaw Uprising museum. My god the stuff the Germans did

    I had no idea that during the Uprising, and just for the fuck of it, the Germans went to an outlying district - Wola - and shot dead 40,000 civilians in cold blood in about a week

    They dragged them out of their houses. Men women and babies. Bang bang bang

    It is quite remarkable that the Poles have managed to forgive the Germans to the extent they have. And the EU must take some credit, in part, for that

    I also didn’t know the Polish communists forbade mention of the Uprising for decades, in case it nurtured “patriotic” and anti-Soviet feelings. Memories and documents were deliberately silenced and destroyed

    No wonder they loathe the commies here
    Yes, the Russkies didn't officially, er, "liberate" the city until January 1945, five months after the Uprising started!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,791
    Leon said:

    The beer is excellent



    Again, you travel to weird, wonderful and beautiful places, and ruin every photograph by putting yourself in it. You are not interesting. Your beer is not interesting. The table is not interesting. Take your uninteresting self out of the photo and photograph the background. You will never be an artist until you learn to do this.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672
    edited July 2023

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The beer is excellent



    Again, you travel to weird, wonderful and beautiful places, and ruin every photograph by putting yourself in it. You are not interesting. Your beer is not interesting. The table is not interesting. Take your uninteresting self out of the photo and photograph the background. You will never be an artist until you learn to do this.

    Lol. “Artist”?!


    I’ll put what the fuck I like in my comments. If I start taking nude selfies then I’m sure the mods will intervene
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The beer is excellent



    Again, you travel to weird, wonderful and beautiful places, and ruin every photograph by putting yourself in it. You are not interesting. Your beer is not interesting. The table is not interesting. Take your uninteresting self out of the photo and photograph the background. You will never be an artist until you learn to do this.

    If the beer is shown for perspective , it’s either a large beer or small buildings. (Awaits Father Ted quotes.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The beer is excellent



    Again, you travel to weird, wonderful and beautiful places, and ruin every photograph by putting yourself in it. You are not interesting. Your beer is not interesting. The table is not interesting. Take your uninteresting self out of the photo and photograph the background. You will never be an artist until you learn to do this.

    Tbf, the beer-and-coffee combo is mildly intriguing.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.

    Er, yes. I know. I’ve just spent 3 hours in the powerful Warsaw Uprising museum. My god the stuff the Germans did

    I had no idea that during the Uprising, and just for the fuck of it, the Germans went to an outlying district - Wola - and shot dead 40,000 civilians in cold blood in about a week

    They dragged them out of their houses. Men women and babies. Bang bang bang

    It is quite remarkable that the Poles have managed to forgive the Germans to the extent they have. And the EU must take some credit, in part, for that

    I also didn’t know the Polish communists forbade mention of the Uprising for decades, in case it nurtured “patriotic” and anti-Soviet feelings. Memories and documents were deliberately silenced and destroyed

    No wonder they loathe the commies here
    Sturmbrigade Dirlewanger was simply the most loathsome unit in any army in Europe in WW2.
    The Nazis were the bad guys, then? We should add that note to the Churchill statue they keep defacing.
    They were so horrible that even other Nazis despised them.

    Direlwanger was a child molester, alcoholic, psychopath, and fraudster, who was sent to a concentration camp in 1934, for rape of a minor. He got the chance to "redeem" himself in the Spanish Civil War by joining the Condor Legion, before setting up his own SS unit of convicted criminals, during the attack on Poland.

    He was mostly responsible for the massacre at Wola.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates assets. Millennials aren't changing their mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    Yet young people who voted Remain in 1975, voted Leave in 2016.
    Has there been any polling to verify that?
    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/

    60% of 18-29 years olds voted remain in 1975. By 2016, the same age cohort voted 60% against.
    Thanks @Sean_F. Interestingly, that generation were the least in favour of Europe both in 1975 and 2016.

    They were, but it's still a 20% swing.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,791
    edited July 2023
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The beer is excellent



    Again, you travel to weird, wonderful and beautiful places, and ruin every photograph by putting yourself in it. You are not interesting. Your beer is not interesting. The table is not interesting. Take your uninteresting self out of the photo and photograph the background. You will never be an artist until you learn to do this.

    ...I’ll put what the fuck I like in my comments...
    That was the point I was making.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672
    edited July 2023
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.

    Er, yes. I know. I’ve just spent 3 hours in the powerful Warsaw Uprising museum. My god the stuff the Germans did

    I had no idea that during the Uprising, and just for the fuck of it, the Germans went to an outlying district - Wola - and shot dead 40,000 civilians in cold blood in about a week

    They dragged them out of their houses. Men women and babies. Bang bang bang

    It is quite remarkable that the Poles have managed to forgive the Germans to the extent they have. And the EU must take some credit, in part, for that

    I also didn’t know the Polish communists forbade mention of the Uprising for decades, in case it nurtured “patriotic” and anti-Soviet feelings. Memories and documents were deliberately silenced and destroyed

    No wonder they loathe the commies here
    Sturmbrigade Dirlewanger was simply the most loathsome unit in any army in Europe in WW2.
    The part of the museum dedicated to the Wola massacre is absolutely numbing. It is only equalled by the section dedicated to the Jewish ghetto

    My god, what a history

    The Nazis are inexhaustibly surprising on the downside. When you think you’ve learned it all - there’s a whole new atrocity and perversity you’ve not encountered. To my shame I’ve never heard of Wola until today
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Both Brexit and Rejoin have been treated as magic pills, which make our economic problems go away.

    That’s true, but it’s a bit rich coming from someone who eagerly ingested the first of those pills.
    My objection to EU membership was political. I was not on board with ever closer political integration. Nor were you, at the time.
    “Ever closer political integration” is a bogeyman.

    I still don’t agree with it, but I don’t think the reality think is what Euro-sceptics pretend it is, and don’t forget David Cameron got an opt out from the formal language of “ever closer union”.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798

    Alcaraz breaks the Novax serve early in the third set!

    I hope Alcaraz wins but hopefully Nolo has a mini revival so someone can say escape from Alcaraz.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

    Communism kept a lot of places artifically poor.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,791

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The beer is excellent



    Again, you travel to weird, wonderful and beautiful places, and ruin every photograph by putting yourself in it. You are not interesting. Your beer is not interesting. The table is not interesting. Take your uninteresting self out of the photo and photograph the background. You will never be an artist until you learn to do this.

    Tbf, the beer-and-coffee combo is mildly intriguing.
    Tbh, that's the lowest possible definition of "mildly". :D
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

    How is Poland different these days from “the North”?
    Spain is another interesting exemplar.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011

    The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.

    Er, yes. I know. I’ve just spent 3 hours in the powerful Warsaw Uprising museum. My god the stuff the Germans did

    I had no idea that during the Uprising, and just for the fuck of it, the Germans went to an outlying district - Wola - and shot dead 40,000 civilians in cold blood in about a week

    They dragged them out of their houses. Men women and babies. Bang bang bang

    It is quite remarkable that the Poles have managed to forgive the Germans to the extent they have. And the EU must take some credit, in part, for that

    I also didn’t know the Polish communists forbade mention of the Uprising for decades, in case it nurtured “patriotic” and anti-Soviet feelings. Memories and documents were deliberately silenced and destroyed

    No wonder they loathe the commies here
    Sturmbrigade Dirlewanger was simply the most loathsome unit in any army in Europe in WW2.
    The part of the museum dedicated to the Wola massacre is absolutely numbing. It is only equalled by the section dedicated to the Jewish ghetto

    My god, what a history

    The Nazis are inexhaustibly surprising on the downside. When you think you’ve learned it all - there’s a whole new atrocity and perversity you’ve not encountered. To my shame I’ve never heard of Wola until today
    And, yet, the Imperial Japanese Army was even. worse.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The beer is excellent



    Again, you travel to weird, wonderful and beautiful places, and ruin every photograph by putting yourself in it. You are not interesting. Your beer is not interesting. The table is not interesting. Take your uninteresting self out of the photo and photograph the background. You will never be an artist until you learn to do this.

    Lol. “Artist”?!


    I’ll put what the fuck I like in my comments. If I start taking nude selfies then I’m sure the mods will intervene
    They did the last time.

    Do you drink coffee with beer? I would be peeing every 10 minutes if I tried that.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited July 2023

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Both Brexit and Rejoin have been treated as magic pills, which make our economic problems go away.

    That’s true, but it’s a bit rich coming from someone who eagerly ingested the first of those pills.
    My objection to EU membership was political. I was not on board with ever closer political integration. Nor were you, at the time.
    “Ever closer political integration” is a bogeyman.

    I still don’t agree with it, but I don’t think the reality think is what Euro-sceptics pretend it is, and don’t forget David Cameron got an opt out from the formal language of “ever closer union”.
    The other “tell” is that Brexiters turned out to be supremely uninterested in Britain’s own constitutional arrangements once we were out, save much they could be trashed.

    I imagine the Venn diagram between Brexiters, and - for example - the Hansard Society, is pretty much zero.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The beer is excellent



    Again, you travel to weird, wonderful and beautiful places, and ruin every photograph by putting yourself in it. You are not interesting. Your beer is not interesting. The table is not interesting. Take your uninteresting self out of the photo and photograph the background. You will never be an artist until you learn to do this.

    3 Comments on Leon's comments:
    1) I visited Warsaw in 2008 and was blown awayby the old town. I had just been conditioned to think that buildings built after about 1910 had to be functional at best, hideous at worst. It's quite a shock to see humans allowed to build buildings as beautiful as they used to be.
    2) That said, the old town is quite small, and thes rest of Warsaw that I saw was, in average, considerably drabber than the average English city. Things may have changed since, but on average I would rather live in Leeds than Warsaw.
    3) The communists were fucking evil and I don't understand why we are so mealy-mouthed in saying so. It's weird that "I'm a communist, actually" isn't given as short a shrift as "I'm a fascist, actually" would be. Both involve "othering" non-favoured groups and, inevitably, treating those grouos brutally.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

    Communism kept a lot of places artifically poor.
    Yes, as you’ve pointed out before places like the Czech Republic or Slovenia SHOULD be as affluent as Western Europe. For multiple reasons

    It was Moscow which kept them down and desperate
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

    Communism kept a lot of places artifically poor.
    Yes, as you’ve pointed out before places like the Czech Republic or Slovenia SHOULD be as affluent as Western Europe. For multiple reasons

    It was Moscow which kept them down and desperate
    Partly, but also this is a form of copium.

    Britain had some of the highest standards of living in the world before the War, so this kind of mass sorpasso of the North can’t just be handwaved away.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672
    Cookie said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The beer is excellent



    Again, you travel to weird, wonderful and beautiful places, and ruin every photograph by putting yourself in it. You are not interesting. Your beer is not interesting. The table is not interesting. Take your uninteresting self out of the photo and photograph the background. You will never be an artist until you learn to do this.

    3 Comments on Leon's comments:
    1) I visited Warsaw in 2008 and was blown awayby the old town. I had just been conditioned to think that buildings built after about 1910 had to be functional at best, hideous at worst. It's quite a shock to see humans allowed to build buildings as beautiful as they used to be.
    2) That said, the old town is quite small, and thes rest of Warsaw that I saw was, in average, considerably drabber than the average English city. Things may have changed since, but on average I would rather live in Leeds than Warsaw.
    3) The communists were fucking evil and I don't understand why we are so mealy-mouthed in saying so. It's weird that "I'm a communist, actually" isn't given as short a shrift as "I'm a fascist, actually" would be. Both involve "othering" non-favoured groups and, inevitably, treating those grouos brutally.
    The commies were really REALLY evil. Polish communists had some of the surviving heroes of the Uprising imprisoned, tortured and even executed. They were Dangerous subversives with their “Polish patriotism”
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I voted Remain but it's time for other Remainers to accept the result of the referendum.

    We left; that’s done. Is anyone arguing about that ?

    It’s not ‘up to’ those who think it was a bad idea to change their minds based upon a vote taken years ago, whose mandate is expired.

    And quite evidently, it’s no longer just remainers who think it’s a shit show.
    Too many are saying “it’s bad because of brexit” and offering no solution. They should be saying “how do we make it better”

    The answer “rejoin the EU” is not persuasive because it will be incredibly divisive and result in alienation of a large percentage of the voters

    Tangible, incremental steps to make things better is what are required
    We can start by rejoining the single market. We can then reintroduce freedom of movement. Without these, it will be harder to rebuild the economy.
    You had the chance to make that case and lost it. It would be a massive FU to the part of the Brexit vote that was driven by immigration



  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    Break point 4 after 9th deuce.
  • Could be a really good finish in the ladies' cricket

    England need 102 from 15 overs with 5 wickets remaining
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited July 2023

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I voted Remain but it's time for other Remainers to accept the result of the referendum.

    We left; that’s done. Is anyone arguing about that ?

    It’s not ‘up to’ those who think it was a bad idea to change their minds based upon a vote taken years ago, whose mandate is expired.

    And quite evidently, it’s no longer just remainers who think it’s a shit show.
    Too many are saying “it’s bad because of brexit” and offering no solution. They should be saying “how do we make it better”

    The answer “rejoin the EU” is not persuasive because it will be incredibly divisive and result in alienation of a large percentage of the voters

    Tangible, incremental steps to make things better is what are required
    We can start by rejoining the single market. We can then reintroduce freedom of movement. Without these, it will be harder to rebuild the economy.
    You had the chance to make that case and lost it. It would be a massive FU to the part of the Brexit vote that was driven by immigration
    Polling demonstrates that they no longer really care about immigration.

    Plus, those people will lose the next election (and the one after that) and according to Brexit logic that means they need to “accept” they have lost have no more say in the matter.

    More seriously, some of the analysis I’ve seen suggests that mass immigration from Eastern Europe is unlikely to happen again given demographics and relative wealth.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    Brexit voters were explicitly promised that Brexit means you get to exclude Muslims and brown people. Instead EU migration got replaced by non-EU migration. No wonder people are disappointed.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality




    Less trendy than Tbilisi?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

    Communism kept a lot of places artifically poor.
    Yes, as you’ve pointed out before places like the Czech Republic or Slovenia SHOULD be as affluent as Western Europe. For multiple reasons

    It was Moscow which kept them down and desperate
    Partly, but also this is a form of copium.

    Britain had some of the highest standards of living in the world before the War, so this kind of mass sorpasso of the North can’t just be handwaved away.
    London and the South, yes. Economic changes after 1920 were devastating for the parts of the UK that depended upon mining, shipbuilding, heavy industry, like the North East, South Wales, Clydeside, and other industrialised areas.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,908
    The UK will not rejoin the EU, because the EU wouldn't have us. The last thing they want is an awkward flip flopping member.

    It is entirely possible, however, that the UK and the EU grow closer over time.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited July 2023
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

    Communism kept a lot of places artifically poor.
    Yes, as you’ve pointed out before places like the Czech Republic or Slovenia SHOULD be as affluent as Western Europe. For multiple reasons

    It was Moscow which kept them down and desperate
    Partly, but also this is a form of copium.

    Britain had some of the highest standards of living in the world before the War, so this kind of mass sorpasso of the North can’t just be handwaved away.
    London and the South, yes. Economic changes after 1920 were devastating for the parts of the UK that depended upon mining, shipbuilding, heavy industry, like the North East, South Wales, Clydeside, and other industrialised areas.
    That’s true, but

    a) the Midlands were one of the richest parts of the UK until the 1970s

    b) I’m willing to put a small bet on say, Newcastle, being a wealthier city (per person) than, say, Warsaw, throughout the entire 20th century.

    If someone knew how to find the stats.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    carnforth said:

    Break point 4 after 9th deuce.

    13th deuce WTF!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488

    carnforth said:

    Break point 4 after 9th deuce.

    13th deuce WTF!
    Djokovic is getting grumpy.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    Leon said:

    This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011




    How come Poundbury is bad and evil and pastiche yet this is noble and worthy and UNESCO-able?

    What the photo doesn’t show is that the fairly run down shit begins two blocks from here and that’s even in the lovely restored area

    Sounds like Baltimore…
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    Alcarez wins the 26 minute game.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Break point 4 after 9th deuce.

    13th deuce WTF!
    Djokovic is getting grumpy.
    He finally gets broken after 26 minutes!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    rcs1000 said:

    The UK will not rejoin the EU, because the EU wouldn't have us. The last thing they want is an awkward flip flopping member.

    It is entirely possible, however, that the UK and the EU grow closer over time.

    I don’t think this is true.

    A UK that wants to rejoin will by definition be less flip-floppy.

    You also make the classic Brexity mistake of assuming the EU is a single entity with a single will.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Having just dissed twentieth century architecture, I am today, for complicated reasons, spending 9 hours on a minibus from Manchester to Kings College London and back. For unclear reasons, the driver appears to be eschewing all opportunities to head for the M1, and we are heading out via the A40. We have just passed the Hoover building andmy spirits were lifted immensely. I wouldn't replace Warsaw's old town with it, but I'm pleased to see some really good C20 architecture.
    Presumably we'll now be heading home via the M40. How exciting. Maybe we'll see Red Kites.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

    Communism kept a lot of places artifically poor.
    Yes, as you’ve pointed out before places like the Czech Republic or Slovenia SHOULD be as affluent as Western Europe. For multiple reasons

    It was Moscow which kept them down and desperate
    Partly, but also this is a form of copium.

    Britain had some of the highest standards of living in the world before the War, so this kind of mass sorpasso of the North can’t just be handwaved away.
    London and the South, yes. Economic changes after 1920 were devastating for the parts of the UK that depended upon mining, shipbuilding, heavy industry, like the North East, South Wales, Clydeside, and other industrialised areas.
    That’s true, but

    a) the Midlands were one of the richest parts of the UK until the 1970s

    b) I’m willing to put a small bet on say, Newcastle, being a wealthier city (per person) than, say, Warsaw, throughout the entire 20th century.

    If someone knew how to find the stats.
    It would have been, I'm sure. But, pre-War it would certainly have been poorer than a city like Prague or Riga.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

    Communism kept a lot of places artifically poor.
    Yes, as you’ve pointed out before places like the Czech Republic or Slovenia SHOULD be as affluent as Western Europe. For multiple reasons

    It was Moscow which kept them down and desperate
    Partly, but also this is a form of copium.

    Britain had some of the highest standards of living in the world before the War, so this kind of mass sorpasso of the North can’t just be handwaved away.
    No one is waving it away. But Britain was doing just fine by GDP per capita until our model was broken by the GFC. You can see the relative decline from 2008

    Up until then the government could rely on huge tax inflows from the City which it redistributed to the north etc. Not so much now

    Brexit has perhaps exposed these problems even more. That could - eventually - be a good thing
    No more ignoring the issues

    But again, as my recent travels EVERYWHERE have shown me, to my satisfaction, virtually every western country is facing severe headwinds in one way or another. Hence the rise of hard right populism - everywhere. Including the USA

    You focus on the UK/Brexit to a weird and cranky extent given that you don’t live in the UK and you weren’t brought up in the UK and you’ve no intention of living in the UK in the future

    You are of course free to comment on whatever you like, just as I am free to put pics of my beer in my remarks. However I suggest it would be enlightening for you to do a roadtrip around flyover country, in your new homeland

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    Not convinced the transition from communism to capitalism is an entirely fair comparison, mind

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    It’s true that in some respects Brexit is a massive distraction from the “real issues”.

    But in other ways, you can’t easily ignore a 5.5% dent to your economy.

    As a comparison, Adam Tooze was suggesting that to address climate change required a global 3% of GDP investment each year.

    Climate change investment is productive, though.
    Renewable energy is now cheaper than what it replaces.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947
    rcs1000 said:

    The UK will not rejoin the EU, because the EU wouldn't have us. The last thing they want is an awkward flip flopping member.

    I'm not actually sure that's true. They always loved our money, and we'd undoubtedly be huge net contributors again if we were idiotic enough to rejoin. And they'd love the prestige boost of us admitting that we made a mistake. And of course they'd love the increase in power that 70 million people and more nuclear weapons would give them.

    What they probably wouldn't do is enter into negotiations if they thought that the final deal would have to be approved by a referendum here, as it probably would be - they've always hated democracy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    I suspect Brexit is ultimately stuffed because of demographic change. The evidence so far (see John Curtice for instance) is that pro-Eu sentiment is more akin to accepting same-sex marriage rather than becoming more economically conservative as one ages and accumulates asserts. Millennials aren't changing there mind, and aren't likely to become convinced that the stuff on Turkey, the £350m a week etc. was anything other than a pack of lies.
    I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.

    We've discussed Brexit on this thread as an economic and practical issue but, of course, the vote was primarily on identity lines. The boomers have an identity created in a UK that wasn't a member of the EU, but those born after the UK joined have a different identity, and took membership of the EU for granted as part of that identity.

    So perhaps the critical question for the future of Brexit is whether it can survive long enough to see a new generation reach voting age. One that takes Brexit for granted as just one of those things that is, and that would regard joining the EU as being a bit of a weird disruption to the status quo, as weird as most people would regard any proposal to join the US, or to create a CANZUK union.
    Or a generation brought up on the idea it’s crap.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    @Leon when have I ever said that I’m not returning to the UK? Indeed, the plan was to “do three years”.

    I am alternately charmed and horrified by the US, albeit I have upstate New York for July so currently more charmed.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    Omnium said:

    geoffw said:

    What a tennis match

    Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).

    That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.

    Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.

    The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that.
    Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.

    I prefer Posen's prescription of tightening monetary policy, 'leaning in' to global Britain and thinking like a small country.
    I agree with that (apart from tightening monetary policy) but none of that undermines the fact that Brexit sucked and sucks.
    You have a vested interest in loose monetary policy.
    Looser, yes.
    But I think anyway I’m unconvinced that the transmission works like it used to, and I’m also bullish (bearish?) on deflationary risk.
    The sector that has been subject to the most deflation in recent decades also happens to be the one that has been the most successful and innovative.
    I don’t know what that’s supposed to mean exactly but as I say, I think the chances of outright deflation outweigh the chances of ongoing soaring inflation in the medium term.
    Why is outright deflation a bad thing? It was quite normal until the modern era.

    image
    Deflation discourages spending now in favour of spending later when prices have fallen, so stifles economic activity. There is a good reason why central banks target ~2% inflation, not price stability.
    That is the often quoted reason, but it doesn't really bear scrutiny. Progress should mean a widget is cheaper!

    The real reason central banks like inflation is that erodes all the government debt.
    Better value not cheaper
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    Cookie said:

    Having just dissed twentieth century architecture, I am today, for complicated reasons, spending 9 hours on a minibus from Manchester to Kings College London and back. For unclear reasons, the driver appears to be eschewing all opportunities to head for the M1, and we are heading out via the A40. We have just passed the Hoover building andmy spirits were lifted immensely. I wouldn't replace Warsaw's old town with it, but I'm pleased to see some really good C20 architecture.
    Presumably we'll now be heading home via the M40. How exciting. Maybe we'll see Red Kites.

    The Hoover building is great - but Tescos haven't done great things with it. It's great shame.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    Nigelb said:

    It’s true that in some respects Brexit is a massive distraction from the “real issues”.

    But in other ways, you can’t easily ignore a 5.5% dent to your economy.

    As a comparison, Adam Tooze was suggesting that to address climate change required a global 3% of GDP investment each year.

    Climate change investment is productive, though.
    Renewable energy is now cheaper than what it replaces.
    If you think about the cost of fitting the entire country with heat pumps, for example.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    It’s got the legacy of being the place that the Communists spend lots of effort building the kind of buildings Communists like.

    Gdansk, for example, is much prettier.

    Outside Warsaw, is is interesting to see how much new stuff was (and is) being built. Mind you, the Poles are off message - they insist on building roads.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,791
    Cookie said:

    Having just dissed twentieth century architecture, I am today, for complicated reasons, spending 9 hours on a minibus from Manchester to Kings College London and back. For unclear reasons, the driver appears to be eschewing all opportunities to head for the M1, and we are heading out via the A40. We have just passed the Hoover building andmy spirits were lifted immensely. I wouldn't replace Warsaw's old town with it, but I'm pleased to see some really good C20 architecture.
    Presumably we'll now be heading home via the M40. How exciting. Maybe we'll see Red Kites.

    RAC Regional Control Centre, near the M4/M5 interchange, Bradley Stoke, near Bristol. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krhkEKVzQgQ Always kidded myself it was a secret military base
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,257
    edited July 2023
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

    Communism kept a lot of places artifically poor.
    Yes, as you’ve pointed out before places like the Czech Republic or Slovenia SHOULD be as affluent as Western Europe. For multiple reasons

    It was Moscow which kept them down and desperate
    Partly, but also this is a form of copium.

    Britain had some of the highest standards of living in the world before the War, so this kind of mass sorpasso of the North can’t just be handwaved away.
    London and the South, yes. Economic changes after 1920 were devastating for the parts of the UK that depended upon mining, shipbuilding, heavy industry, like the North East, South Wales, Clydeside, and other industrialised areas.
    That’s true, but

    a) the Midlands were one of the richest parts of the UK until the 1970s

    b) I’m willing to put a small bet on say, Newcastle, being a wealthier city (per person) than, say, Warsaw, throughout the entire 20th century.

    If someone knew how to find the stats.
    It would have been, I'm sure. But, pre-War it would certainly have been poorer than a city like Prague or Riga.
    Prague maybe.
    But we forget how “rich” the UK was.

    I think there was a moment in the 30s when British GDP PP surpassed the United States, which was busy having a Depression.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    edited July 2023
    Novax hiding in the loo? :lol:

    6-1 to Alcaraz in the 3rd set

    2-1 in sets
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,672
    One more observation


    Warsaw is ASTONISHINGLY white. I mean: 100%, as far as I can see. There are some East Asian tourists, but nobody remotely brown or black

    The contrast with a major capital in Western Europe is astounding

    I know there are very few BME minorities in Poland anyway - but zero BME tourists? That’s a surprise. I wonder if they feel uncomfortably conspicuous or encounter overt racism? And stay away?

    I have no answer. I’m genuinely asking
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Nigelb said:

    It’s true that in some respects Brexit is a massive distraction from the “real issues”.

    But in other ways, you can’t easily ignore a 5.5% dent to your economy.

    As a comparison, Adam Tooze was suggesting that to address climate change required a global 3% of GDP investment each year.

    Climate change investment is productive, though.
    Renewable energy is now cheaper than what it replaces.
    I'd like to see some back up for that last statement. Barring the extraordinarily high price of gas recently, it seems a clear cut untruth.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Great TDF finish. Ving and pog neck and neck.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    Poland builds stuff and invests in future generations - which is how they've gone from GDP PP of $1700 in 1990 to $17000 in 2020.

    We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
    But I keep hearing this bullshit from Remoaners. “Oh because of Brexit we’re being overtaken by the Eastern European. Warsaw is richer than anywhere outside Mayfair. Slovenians are buying flats in Edinburgh to use as garden sheds”

    Reality



    What is this stuff about Remoaners? I voted Leave; my complaint is that our government is insisting on shooting the country in the foot through restrictive planning, while Poland has increased its GDP PP by 10x in thirty years. I think we should look at what they've done, which clearly works, instead of continuing our suicidal build-nothing policy. What exactly do you disagree with?
    We can’t copy a country which began with a GDP per capita of $3000 or whatever. The situations are entirely different. They played catch up, assisted by the EU and the end of communism, and with a very poorly paid but quite well educated population. Good for them

    Unless you are suggesting we build car factories where we can pay people £2 an hour to undercut France and Germany?

    Communism kept a lot of places artifically poor.
    Yes, as you’ve pointed out before places like the Czech Republic or Slovenia SHOULD be as affluent as Western Europe. For multiple reasons

    It was Moscow which kept them down and desperate
    Partly, but also this is a form of copium.


    Britain had some of the highest standards of living in the world before the War, so this kind of mass sorpasso of the North can’t just be handwaved away.
    Saving the world* cost us the accumulated wealth of generations**

    * By which I mean keeping hope alive until the Americans turned up

    ** Just don’t enquire too closely as to how it was accumulated…
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?

    It is palpably, visibly ridiculous

    Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer

    Does it feel young and vibrant though?

    I think you need to travel through the UK.
    After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
    This is the capital city
    I’m not a Polish expert.
    Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
    Almost all of modern Poland is 'ex-Prussian.' The Russians nicked the rest in 1945.

    But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
    Polish nationalists had the good sense to accept the new European borders, despite their being imposed by Stalin.
    If only all nationalists (including today’s Poles) were so sensible.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,874

    Novax hiding in the loo? :lol:

    5-1 to Alcaraz in the 3rd set

    Can Djokovic escape from Alcaraz?
This discussion has been closed.