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Brexiteers, you may need a stiff drink – politicalbetting.com
Brexiteers, you may need a stiff drink – politicalbetting.com
At some point Westminster will need to engage with the fact we’re going to have to change the axis on this chart to fit in the % that think Brexit is having a negative impact pic.twitter.com/f7N5dD1WpQ
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I read an article recently (New Statesman, I think) which stated that Labour's top people are haunted by the fate of Francois Hollande. A dull stolid "safe pair of hands" who was elected after a lengthy period of increasingly turbulent conservative government (Chirac/Sarkozy). In the event his attempt to steer a middle course pleased no-one and by the end of his term the Socialists had tanked to the extent that he didn't even attempt re-election.
How does Starmer avoid a similar fate? The solution, apparently, is to deliver for Labour's core vote, and sod the rest. That, at least, avoids complete meltdown. Therefore a Starmer Govt may be more radical and left-wing than we think. And more aggressive in dealing with interest groups which are not naturally pro-Labour (pensioners, for instance.)
Not sure I agree, but it's an interesting take.
Whatever, no matter how large the majority next year, the succeeding election will be no walk-over for Labour as it was for Blair in 2001. Part of the voter coalition is bound to peel off.
But you do you.
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that.
Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
https://www.google.com/maps/@57.4785084,-4.2311338,3a,75y,156.34h,82.72t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s8w22Ni5ETxDvZKfPzMY57g!2e0!5s20201101T000000!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu
Sentiment turned against the UK in 2016 and is still completely underwater, especially after Johnson/Truss.
One advantage Keir has is that his election in itself will likely be a turning point for global investor sentiment (not an overnight change, but a turning point).
https://youtube.com/watch?v=s1x2sVTm3EI
But I think anyway I’m unconvinced that the transmission works like it used to, and I’m also bullish (bearish?) on deflationary risk.
Brexit was and is a policy disaster.
Anyone who wants a brighter future for the country needs to start with an acceptance of fact, and then figure out solutions to move on. It doesn’t mean Rejoining, necessarily. I am not convinced of that at all.
It is people like Lord Frost who appear to live in a state of severe cognitive dissonance bordering on mental illness.
I don't want to rejoin as a Championship nation, when we were Premiership, but I'd like an arrangement a little more sensible than we currently have in place.
It's possible that, as British companies adjust to the trading possibilities created by trade deals made out of the EU that, even if these don't come close to making up for the Brexit damage, rejoining could itself cause further damage to the British economy, as these new trading arrangements are unwound.
And then, of course, there's the opportunity cost of the political class obsessing about Britain's relationship with Europe and not addressing any of the long-term weaknesses of the British economy, nor reinforcing its remaining strengths. This is where the parallel with prohibition breaks down most. Reversing prohibition was a relatively trivial task. Rejoining the EU, or even the Single Market, would not be.
We voted away beneficial trade and influence so that BoZo could be World King and laugh at the idiots who voted for him.
What i refuse to accept is that we shouldn't argue for a better outcome
I don't know much about him but what I do know is decidedly mixed.
First off, he's an academy chain chief. That would normally put me off him. However, he has at least worked in a school, which Spielman never had.
Second, he's a critic of OFSTED as it stands. Partly, this is because the schools he runs have been facing inspections with one hand tied behind their back because the current framework is essentially designed to favour grammar schools and Outwood specialises in struggling inner-city comps. I remember he was particularly critical of 'failing' schools being paired up with non-comparable 'outstanding' school, the latter of which didn't understand what was happening or what was needed. And in that he was right.
However, he has also been accused of fairly major safeguarding breaches. He has, for example, been accused of concealing allegations that his heads have been threatening children. Is that true? I do not know. But such allegations having been made will certainly dog him whether true or not.
He certainly seems pretty ruthless in getting rid of troublesome children by means of expelling them but actually I have some sympathy with that. Most schools are far too timid about removing troublemakers because LEAs will not let them (due to lack of places at schools like @dixiedean 's or the PRU in Cannock).
If I'm honest my main reservation would be that he's come through the system as designed by Gove, Gibb and Freedman. It is a deeply flawed system and in my experience it produces deeply flawed individuals as leaders. But - I don't know whether he is one.
Whoever comes into OFSTED faces an absolute disaster - a completely discredited agency in considerable administrative disarray, bedevilled by safeguarding breaches, with a remit that's far too wide and suffering from seven years of appallingly inept management. I hope he can sort it out but until the DfE is reformed I frankly think he's on a hiding to nothing even if he's the greatest teacher since Socrates and the greatest administrator since Lord Trevelyan (and he may find this his Irish Famine).
(Admittedly, that was because China hadn’t quite taken off, and other powers were also temporarily embarrassed.)
We need to be thinking about 2040 now.
Disagreement between Wallace and Braverman over whether the number of service personnel sent to cover for border guards should be 250 or 750 is classic media whooshing of the far more important issue of whether or not to increase the arming of Ukraine and to keep on giving those lovely victimised darlings whatever they want because 100% of the aid will go to a 100% pure cause with 100% certainty that that's the best thing for Britain, and anyone who says otherwise can get back to Russia, foam foam, bring back flogging, how's yer pal Putin, eh, etc.
At the same time, it's Wallace saying the government are disrespecting both the armed forces and everyone who lands at a British airport which of course in summertime includes many British citizens returning from holidays abroad.
Probably odds-on that Wallace will resign his seat before the election. Question is whether he makes the announcement before next Thursday's by-elections or after. He might do it on Friday or on Saturday in time for Sunday papers. Sure, there's the intermediate course of just resigning as defence secretary, but to give his kick maximum force he should follow current fashion and flounce from his seat too.
Saying the government is sh***ing on holidaymakers won't be good for the Tory vote next week. Ben is right narked. I hope he minds how he goes.
It’s not ‘up to’ those who think it was a bad idea to change their minds based upon a vote taken years ago, whose mandate is expired.
And quite evidently, it’s no longer just remainers who think it’s a shit show.
This is downright evil.
Pence says abortion should be banned for nonviable pregnancies
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4099388-pence-says-abortion-should-be-banned-for-nonviable-pregnancies/
England hasn't built a reservoir in thirty years. HS2 has taken twenty years from proposal to (best case scenario) "completion". Nationwide, house prices are seven times average earnings, compared to three times in 1995. Leeds is the largest city region in Europe with no metro network. The Secretary of State for Environment is currently supporting a wind farm in the North Sea, while opposing the infrastructure required to bring the electricity to the mainland where it can actually be used.
Our economic problems are entirely down to the fact we have refused to build anything since the mid 90s to appease a selfish generation which benefited from what was left to them and is determined to leave as little as possible to what comes after them.
Rejoining the EU, unless it comes with massive investment in infrastructure and the abolition of the Town and Country Planning Act, won't fix it.
Then that fucking lying cowardly bastard Cameron didn't invoke A50 like he promised he would.
I tend to think this is a feature of capitalism that is diagnostic of it being fundamentally an insane way to organise an economy, but most people seem content to stick with it because the command economy alternatives have been worse, and although there are some interesting ideas out there, experimenting with the economic system seems to be somewhat unpopular.
You don't need inflation for that. Witness all these people queueing up to buy something that they could get cheaper by waiting:
Sooner or later the politicians are going to have to move to where the voters are, the acceptance that Brexit was a massive mistake.
One thing that would help everyone is slimming down the curriculum content.
The chances of that happening in the next five years are remote.
The British come out of it rather well. Except for Yalta
So. Given that 2016-20 happened, how unpopular does Brexit have to be for how long before a rethink is the sensible thing to do?
But in other ways, you can’t easily ignore a 5.5% dent to your economy.
As a comparison, Adam Tooze was suggesting that to address climate change required a global 3% of GDP investment each year.
Also we would have to join the Euro, which would be such a complete disaster for a deficit country like ourselves as we lost control of our monetary and exchange rate policy that it would dwarf any conceivable benefit from the increase in trade with the EU which would probably result.
Even the most ardent rejoiners tend to want to talk about something else when you mention the currency issue, just like Scots Nats.
The answer “rejoin the EU” is not persuasive because it will be incredibly divisive and result in alienation of a large percentage of the voters
Tangible, incremental steps to make things better is what are required
In essence, Britain is a society that has become over-fianancialised, over-rentierized, and too old.
It was already over-centralised and culturally averse to capital investment.
That is palpably, visibly ridiculous when you come here
Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer. And they’ve got trams
I think you need to travel through the UK.
After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
It seems no one really cares because if you've got any power to unfuck the system you probably followed the trad route and believe any one who didn't should be in our service sector.
And the damage is done now. How much of that 5.5% is recovered if Britain rejoins?
Separately, we need to work hard with France on what the “Associate EU” looks like*, and see if we can create something which is also atttactive to Norway, Switzerland, Israel, and Ukraine.
*Needs a better title.
Plus we need to activate the “Go Canada” strategy I occasionally post about.
We really shouldn't be defending the state of towns in Wales and the Midlands on the basis that they're not quite as poor as suburban Warsaw.
As for the recovery, it’s like a wound. It’ll take time to heal.
Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
I think there's a fair chance demographic change alone will lead to there being a two-thirds majority for rejoin by the 2030s.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:GDP_per_inhabitant_in_purchasing_power_standards_(PPS),_2020_(index_in_relation_to_the_EU_average_=_100,_by_NUTS_2_regions)_RYB2022.png
Though I think such maps have quite a capital city bias, with GDP assigned where company HQ etc is situated, rather than over the wider area of operations.
Macron’s “Greater Europe” idea appears to be underpinned by the notion that the EU shouldn’t enlarge (too unwieldy), but can increase its economic hegemony by creating an “outer ring”.
In some ways that clashes with British strategy, but in other ways it gives us an opening.
Reality
One set all.
Not that I mind, considering how pisspoor our government is. The less say they have in things the better.
In any case, Brtain has already accepted it can no longer be a “rule maker” so we are just “arguing about the price”.
NZ is also a “rule taker” and I don’t think anyone thinks the worse of us.
I expect Starmer to continue the rapprochement with the EU, but also in the coming years actively take part in the CPTPP which we joined today
We cannot tell where the EU will be in the future, not least with the rise of the the right across Europe, and whatever happens it will not be as it was when we were members as change is happening and needs to be accepted
Hampstead
So perhaps the critical question for the future of Brexit is whether it can survive long enough to see a new generation reach voting age. One that takes Brexit for granted as just one of those things that is, and that would regard joining the EU as being a bit of a weird disruption to the status quo, as weird as most people would regard any proposal to join the US, or to create a CANZUK union.
How come Poundbury is bad and evil and pastiche yet this is noble and worthy and UNESCO-able?
What the photo doesn’t show is that the fairly run down shit begins two blocks from here and that’s even in the lovely restored area
Over-financialized - the share of our GDP generated by financial services (8%) is about the same as the US (7%) or Switzerland (9%), both of which have much higher income levels.
Over rentierized - God knows what that means.
Too old - the UK's average age is 40.6, which is much younger than Germany's (47.8), Japan (48.6), Spain (43.9), Switzerland (42.7) and France (41.7). Amongst big advancd economies, only the United States (38.5) has a significantly lower average age. Maybe we should all eat even more fatty foods, take opioids and start shooting each other?
https://www.worlddata.info/average-age.php
Our problem is that we don't have sensible free market supply-side economic policies, and haven't had them for a couple of decades, since we've had lazy Jim Hacker-style governments which coasted on the success of the 1980s reforms, undermining them when they should have been consolidating and extending them.