Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?
It is palpably, visibly ridiculous
Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer
Does it feel young and vibrant though?
I think you need to travel through the UK. After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
This is the capital city
I’m not a Polish expert. Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
Almost all of modern Poland is 'ex-Prussian.' The Russians nicked the rest in 1945.
But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
Pungent PB pundit alert!
Both these assertions are NOT really correct:
> while Soviets did "nick" much of pre-WWI Russian Poland (absorbed by Belorussian SSR and Ukrainian SSR) note that USSR did NOT annex Warsaw and other major areas that were under the Czar in 1914.
> as for the rest of today's Poland, "almost all" was NOT Prussian and part of German Empire, for example Cracow and western Galicia.
> and re: "no Prussians living" in 3rd-millennium Poland, well there aren't many ethnic Germans but also NOT zero; the 2011 census the German minority = 148k.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Over half of all modern Poland was part of Prussia before 1914. 130,000km2 that was Poland was seized by the Soviets (along with a small exclave of Prussia).
Also, the 148,000 Germans will almost all have come after Poland joined the EU. The expulsion in the 1940s was thorough. So there would be no 'Prussians' left.
The territory that Poland got in 1945/6 was a lot better than the territory it had to give up. Which did not stop both communists and nationalists (and most Polish communists were to a greater or lesser degree nationalists) being hugely unhappy, particularly as hundreds of thousands of Poles were deported from Western Ukraine.
Without the territorial gains to the West, Poland would have gone the same way as Yugoslavia, with its communist party breaking from Stalin.
I've met a few descendants of Poles from western Ukraine whose parents and grandparents were "transferred" to what's now western Poland. Hard transition for them.
Also know a guy (works for my landlord) who is an ethnic German immigrant, who was born and raised in post-WW2 Poland.
There was savage fighting between Poles and Ukrainians, with the Soviets cyncially favouring first one side than the other, between 1939 and 1947. The Ukrainian nationalists murdered the Polish minister of defence, in 1947.
(Worth saying that this is all about GDP. GDP per capita may be a different story, considering e.g Japan vs UK)
Gardenwalker was saying gdp would have been 5.5% higher so I used GDP figures. I am sorry but remainers have the audacity to do that but claim brexit was built on lies. Both campaigns lied through their teeth and if they had been pinocchios the tips of their noses would have become extra solar. However I couldn't let that claim stand as if it was truth which was how it was presented. Simple fact is with counterfactuals you dont know unless you can run a parallel earth with both outcomes and given we cant even get a relatively simple thing like hs2 or track and trace coming in time and on budget I don't want to give that task to the public sector
If correct, I think it would mean we would have been the best-performing rich world economy.
Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?
It is palpably, visibly ridiculous
Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer
Does it feel young and vibrant though?
I think you need to travel through the UK. After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
This is the capital city
I’m not a Polish expert. Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
Almost all of modern Poland is 'ex-Prussian.' The Russians nicked the rest in 1945.
But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
Pungent PB pundit alert!
Both these assertions are NOT really correct:
> while Soviets did "nick" much of pre-WWI Russian Poland (absorbed by Belorussian SSR and Ukrainian SSR) note that USSR did NOT annex Warsaw and other major areas that were under the Czar in 1914.
> as for the rest of today's Poland, "almost all" was NOT Prussian and part of German Empire, for example Cracow and western Galicia.
> and re: "no Prussians living" in 3rd-millennium Poland, well there aren't many ethnic Germans but also NOT zero; the 2011 census the German minority = 148k.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Over half of all modern Poland was part of Prussia before 1914. 130,000km2 that was Poland was seized by the Soviets (along with a small exclave of Prussia).
Also, the 148,000 Germans will almost all have come after Poland joined the EU. The expulsion in the 1940s was thorough. So there would be no 'Prussians' left.
The southern parts of today's Poland were Austrian pre-1918. Cracow, west Galicia etc. They were NOT Prussian!
They’re a large slab of the region that everyone has some sort of historical claim to. It’s all bullshit.
But it is a historical fact that:
In 1914:
Prussia (or Germany if you prefer) had Pomerania, Silesia and east Prussia, plus Danzig Russia had the central bit around Warsaw Austria had Cracow and Galicia
None of those then polities now exist.
Russia and Germany still exist?
Not as they then were, no.
Old imperial claims count for less than nothing today.
Not quite sure what your point is.
- Of course they are different, hardly any countries are the same. You may as well say Britain no longer exists (as it was then).
- I don't think Sunil or anyone else mentioned the worth of imperial claims today.
Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?
It is palpably, visibly ridiculous
Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer
Does it feel young and vibrant though?
I think you need to travel through the UK. After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
This is the capital city
I’m not a Polish expert. Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
Almost all of modern Poland is 'ex-Prussian.' The Russians nicked the rest in 1945.
But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
Pungent PB pundit alert!
Both these assertions are NOT really correct:
> while Soviets did "nick" much of pre-WWI Russian Poland (absorbed by Belorussian SSR and Ukrainian SSR) note that USSR did NOT annex Warsaw and other major areas that were under the Czar in 1914.
> as for the rest of today's Poland, "almost all" was NOT Prussian and part of German Empire, for example Cracow and western Galicia.
> and re: "no Prussians living" in 3rd-millennium Poland, well there aren't many ethnic Germans but also NOT zero; the 2011 census the German minority = 148k.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Over half of all modern Poland was part of Prussia before 1914. 130,000km2 that was Poland was seized by the Soviets (along with a small exclave of Prussia).
Also, the 148,000 Germans will almost all have come after Poland joined the EU. The expulsion in the 1940s was thorough. So there would be no 'Prussians' left.
The territory that Poland got in 1945/6 was a lot better than the territory it had to give up. Which did not stop both communists and nationalists (and most Polish communists were to a greater or lesser degree nationalists) being hugely unhappy, particularly as hundreds of thousands of Poles were deported from Western Ukraine.
Without the territorial gains to the West, Poland would have gone the same way as Yugoslavia, with its communist party breaking from Stalin.
I've met a few descendants of Poles from western Ukraine whose parents and grandparents were "transferred" to what's now western Poland. Hard transition for them.
Also know a guy (works for my landlord) who is an ethnic German immigrant, who was born and raised in post-WW2 Poland.
There was savage fighting between Poles and Ukrainians, with the Soviets cyncially favouring first one side than the other, between 1939 and 1947. The Ukrainian nationalists murdered the Polish minister of defence, in 1947.
Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?
It is palpably, visibly ridiculous
Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer
Does it feel young and vibrant though?
I think you need to travel through the UK. After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
This is the capital city
I’m not a Polish expert. Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
Almost all of modern Poland is 'ex-Prussian.' The Russians nicked the rest in 1945.
But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
Pungent PB pundit alert!
Both these assertions are NOT really correct:
> while Soviets did "nick" much of pre-WWI Russian Poland (absorbed by Belorussian SSR and Ukrainian SSR) note that USSR did NOT annex Warsaw and other major areas that were under the Czar in 1914.
> as for the rest of today's Poland, "almost all" was NOT Prussian and part of German Empire, for example Cracow and western Galicia.
> and re: "no Prussians living" in 3rd-millennium Poland, well there aren't many ethnic Germans but also NOT zero; the 2011 census the German minority = 148k.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Over half of all modern Poland was part of Prussia before 1914. 130,000km2 that was Poland was seized by the Soviets (along with a small exclave of Prussia).
Also, the 148,000 Germans will almost all have come after Poland joined the EU. The expulsion in the 1940s was thorough. So there would be no 'Prussians' left.
The territory that Poland got in 1945/6 was a lot better than the territory it had to give up. Which did not stop both communists and nationalists (and most Polish communists were to a greater or lesser degree nationalists) being hugely unhappy, particularly as hundreds of thousands of Poles were deported from Western Ukraine.
Without the territorial gains to the West, Poland would have gone the same way as Yugoslavia, with its communist party breaking from Stalin.
I've met a few descendants of Poles from western Ukraine whose parents and grandparents were "transferred" to what's now western Poland. Hard transition for them.
Also know a guy (works for my landlord) who is an ethnic German immigrant, who was born and raised in post-WW2 Poland.
There was savage fighting between Poles and Ukrainians, with the Soviets cyncially favouring first one side than the other, between 1939 and 1947. The Ukrainian nationalists murdered the
Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?
It is palpably, visibly ridiculous
Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer
Does it feel young and vibrant though?
I think you need to travel through the UK. After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
This is the capital city
I’m not a Polish expert. Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
Almost all of modern Poland is 'ex-Prussian.' The Russians nicked the rest in 1945.
But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
Pungent PB pundit alert!
Both these assertions are NOT really correct:
> while Soviets did "nick" much of pre-WWI Russian Poland (absorbed by Belorussian SSR and Ukrainian SSR) note that USSR did NOT annex Warsaw and other major areas that were under the Czar in 1914.
> as for the rest of today's Poland, "almost all" was NOT Prussian and part of German Empire, for example Cracow and western Galicia.
> and re: "no Prussians living" in 3rd-millennium Poland, well there aren't many ethnic Germans but also NOT zero; the 2011 census the German minority = 148k.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Over half of all modern Poland was part of Prussia before 1914. 130,000km2 that was Poland was seized by the Soviets (along with a small exclave of Prussia).
Also, the 148,000 Germans will almost all have come after Poland joined the EU. The expulsion in the 1940s was thorough. So there would be no 'Prussians' left.
After the flight and expulsion of Germans from Poland, the largest of a series of flights and expulsions of Germans in Europe during and after World War II, over 1 million former citizens of Germany were naturalized and granted Polish citizenship. Some of them were forced to stay in Poland, while others wanted to stay because these territories were inhabited by their families for hundreds of years. The lowest estimate by West German Schieder commission of 1953, is that 910,000 former German citizens were granted Polish citizenship by 1950.[19] Higher estimates say that 1,043,550[20] or 1,165,000[21][22] were naturalized as Polish citizens by 1950.
However, the vast majority of those people were the so-called "autochthons" who were allowed to stay in post-war Poland after declaring Polish ethnicity in a special verification process.[23] Therefore, most of them were inhabitants of Polish descent of the pre-war border regions of Upper Silesia and Warmia-Masuria. Sometimes they were called Wasserpolnisch or Wasserpolak. Despite their ethnic background, they were allowed to reclaim their former German citizenship on application and under German Basic Law were "considered as not having been deprived of their German citizenship if they have established their domicile in Germany after May 8, 1945 and have not expressed a contrary intention."[24] Because of this fact many of them left the People's Republic of Poland due to its undemocratic political system and economic problems.[25]
It is estimated that, in the Cold War era, hundreds of thousands of Polish citizens decided to emigrate to West Germany and, to a lesser extent, to East Germany.[26][27][28] Despite that, hundreds or tens of thousands of former German citizens remained in Poland. Some of them created families with other Poles, who, in the vast majority, were settlers from central Poland or were resettled from the former eastern territories of Poland by the Soviets to the Recovered Territories (Former eastern territories of Germany).
The Czechs were more thorough. There were about 4,000 Germans left in the Sudetenland in 1994. Today, about 20,000 Czechs claim German ancestry.
Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?
It is palpably, visibly ridiculous
Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer
Does it feel young and vibrant though?
I think you need to travel through the UK. After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
This is the capital city
I’m not a Polish expert. Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
Almost all of modern Poland is 'ex-Prussian.' The Russians nicked the rest in 1945.
But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
Pungent PB pundit alert!
Both these assertions are NOT really correct:
> while Soviets did "nick" much of pre-WWI Russian Poland (absorbed by Belorussian SSR and Ukrainian SSR) note that USSR did NOT annex Warsaw and other major areas that were under the Czar in 1914.
> as for the rest of today's Poland, "almost all" was NOT Prussian and part of German Empire, for example Cracow and western Galicia.
> and re: "no Prussians living" in 3rd-millennium Poland, well there aren't many ethnic Germans but also NOT zero; the 2011 census the German minority = 148k.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Over half of all modern Poland was part of Prussia before 1914. 130,000km2 that was Poland was seized by the Soviets (along with a small exclave of Prussia).
Also, the 148,000 Germans will almost all have come after Poland joined the EU. The expulsion in the 1940s was thorough. So there would be no 'Prussians' left.
The southern parts of today's Poland were Austrian pre-1918. Cracow, west Galicia etc. They were NOT Prussian!
They’re a large slab of the region that everyone has some sort of historical claim to. It’s all bullshit.
But it is a historical fact that:
In 1914:
Prussia (or Germany if you prefer) had Pomerania, Silesia and east Prussia, plus Danzig Russia had the central bit around Warsaw Austria had Cracow and Galicia
None of those then polities now exist.
Russia and Germany still exist?
Not as they then were, no.
Old imperial claims count for less than nothing today.
Not quite sure what your point is.
- Of course they are different, hardly any countries are the same. You may as well say Britain no longer exists (as it was then).
- I don't think Sunil or anyone else mentioned the worth of imperial claims today.
The Czechs were more thorough. There were about 4,000 Germans left in the Sudetenland in 1994. Today, about 20,000 Czechs claim German ancestry.
The Czechs-Slovaks were greatly assisted, in international eyes, by the strong support of Sudeten Germans for the NSDAP and its local allies, which allowed them to be painted as a party to war crimes etc.
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
Your views on the EU are learned but thoroughly blinkered, similar to your views on climate change.
Thanks @Carnyx and @LostPassword for explaining about Welsh Cakes. No, I have never had them. I feel deprived.
Good grief.
You have been.
Well made Welsh cakes are absolutely gorgeous. Best eaten hot off the griddle.
Possible to buy things called Welsh cakes in the supermarkets of the Lost Lands and Scotland, though they are sometimes sugared. Not the same experience as your village bakery though.
Several Russian military-related sources claim that Ukraine has retaken Staromaiorske, Donetsk Oblast. However, there are no official or visual confirmations of the Ukrainian presence in the settlement. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1680585580403458048
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
Brexit is estimated to have cost 5.5% of GDP so far (some think it a bit lower, some higher).
That really is a fuck-ton when you think about the state of the country’s finances and you wonder why Britain doesn’t seem to be able to afford anything anymore.
Re-entry into the Single Market, seems inevitable.
The problem is that Britain is now a significant rule-taker, and nothing short of Rejoin really fixes that. Brexit has resulted in an astonishing loss of meaningful sovereignty.
Hahahaha.
You are deluded if you think being a member of the EU made us anything other than a rule taker anyway. That is the whole point of QMV. We don't get to choose.
I accept your Brexit. You said it might be s*** but your perceived return of sovereignty is fair enough a reason to encourage a leave vote. I don't agree, but it is a good enough justification for me.
The ones that get my goat are those lying toerags like Johnson who sold Brexit as being an economic opportunity.
No, Tyndall is also part of the problem. He talks profound bollocks on the subject but poses as some kind of high-minded authority.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
It is worth noting that we were substantially outperforming the rest of the EU while we were members.
(Although I grant you that it is highly unlikely that we're anywhere near 5% behind where would be had Brexit not happened.)
Highly unlikely? Except that’s precisely what some research suggests.
It’s certainly more believable than the reheated Minfordism that Brexiters cling onto.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I quoted reliable sources for actual figures....it is not me that is the one with ishoo's you quoted an economist. The definition of the "science of economy" is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday didn't happen. Blanchflower is an economist look how his predictions came to fruition
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
Several Russian military-related sources claim that Ukraine has retaken Staromaiorske, Donetsk Oblast. However, there are no official or visual confirmations of the Ukrainian presence in the settlement. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1680585580403458048
If true, the Ukrainians are now more than half way from their start lines to the sea.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I quoted reliable sources for actual figures....it is not me that is the one with ishoo's you quoted an economist. The definition of the "science of economy" is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday didn't happen. Blanchflower is an economist look how his predictions came to fruition
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
Again, it’s not obvious why we should listen to you when you can barely control your rage in every single post on here.
The UK will not rejoin the EU, because the EU wouldn't have us. The last thing they want is an awkward flip flopping member.
I'm not actually sure that's true. They always loved our money, and we'd undoubtedly be huge net contributors again if we were idiotic enough to rejoin. And they'd love the prestige boost of us admitting that we made a mistake. And of course they'd love the increase in power that 70 million people and more nuclear weapons would give them.
What they probably wouldn't do is enter into negotiations if they thought that the final deal would have to be approved by a referendum here, as it probably would be - they've always hated democracy.
I disagree.
We were awkward numbers when we were members. Why would you want to invite someone into the club who is going to cause you much hassle.
Also, it only takes one to veto. I can see why the Dutch or the Poles might want us in, but why would the French?
We won't know until we apply of course, but I've a vague feeling that somewhere in the turgid drivel that is the Lisbon Treaty there's something about EU membership being open to European countries who fulfil the Copenhagen Criteria. (Actually, I found it - Article 49: membership is open to "any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them").
Of course, the EU routinely ignores its own treaties when it suits it, and that's still subject to member state ratification, but, as important, we'll pay £15 billion/year or more in net. It's amazing how that much money will soothe away objections in an organisation as mercenary as the EU, and with a country as grasping as France. The disastrously unfavourable entry terms we negotiated in 1972 removed a lot of French unease, and no doubt we'd be similarly shafted in entry negotiations this time.
They've also always been desperate for us to join the euro and to get their hands on the City of London and cut it down to size - none more than the Frogs.
Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?
It is palpably, visibly ridiculous
Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer
Does it feel young and vibrant though?
I think you need to travel through the UK. After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
This is the capital city
I’m not a Polish expert. Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
Almost all of modern Poland is 'ex-Prussian.' The Russians nicked the rest in 1945.
But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
Pungent PB pundit alert!
Both these assertions are NOT really correct:
> while Soviets did "nick" much of pre-WWI Russian Poland (absorbed by Belorussian SSR and Ukrainian SSR) note that USSR did NOT annex Warsaw and other major areas that were under the Czar in 1914.
> as for the rest of today's Poland, "almost all" was NOT Prussian and part of German Empire, for example Cracow and western Galicia.
> and re: "no Prussians living" in 3rd-millennium Poland, well there aren't many ethnic Germans but also NOT zero; the 2011 census the German minority = 148k.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Over half of all modern Poland was part of Prussia before 1914. 130,000km2 that was Poland was seized by the Soviets (along with a small exclave of Prussia).
Also, the 148,000 Germans will almost all have come after Poland joined the EU. The expulsion in the 1940s was thorough. So there would be no 'Prussians' left.
The southern parts of today's Poland were Austrian pre-1918. Cracow, west Galicia etc. They were NOT Prussian!
They’re a large slab of the region that everyone has some sort of historical claim to. It’s all bullshit.
But it is a historical fact that:
In 1914:
Prussia (or Germany if you prefer) had Pomerania, Silesia and east Prussia, plus Danzig Russia had the central bit around Warsaw Austria had Cracow and Galicia
None of those then polities now exist.
Russia and Germany still exist?
Not as they then were, no.
Old imperial claims count for less than nothing today.
Not quite sure what your point is.
- Of course they are different, hardly any countries are the same. You may as well say Britain no longer exists (as it was then).
- I don't think Sunil or anyone else mentioned the worth of imperial claims today.
You can find similar maps for other elections and etc, that show roughly same phenomenon.
The Polish map is interesting, though it conveniently ignores the Austro-Hungarian bit, which makes me a bit suspicious. The suggestion in the same article that differences between the 2 banks of the Rhine in Cologne, a city I know very well, are due to the border of the Roman empire is pretty fanciful.
(Worth saying that this is all about GDP. GDP per capita may be a different story, considering e.g Japan vs UK)
Gardenwalker was saying gdp would have been 5.5% higher so I used GDP figures. I am sorry but remainers have the audacity to do that but claim brexit was built on lies. Both campaigns lied through their teeth and if they had been pinocchios the tips of their noses would have become extra solar. However I couldn't let that claim stand as if it was truth which was how it was presented. Simple fact is with counterfactuals you dont know unless you can run a parallel earth with both outcomes and given we cant even get a relatively simple thing like hs2 or track and trace coming in time and on budget I don't want to give that task to the public sector
If correct, I think it would mean we would have been the best-performing rich world economy.
Since the model is based on a “doppelgänger” basket of other countries, weighted according to their similarly to the UK, that’s mathematically impossible.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I quoted reliable sources for actual figures....it is not me that is the one with ishoo's you quoted an economist. The definition of the "science of economy" is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday didn't happen. Blanchflower is an economist look how his predictions came to fruition
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
Again, it’s not obvious why we should listen to you when you can barely control your rage in every single post on here.
Perhaps because I quote facts where as you claimed someones prediction as fact. I am sure people will judge which is more reliable. Hint its probably not going to be you
It’s kind of funny - albeit in a very sad way - how heated up Brexiters get when the 5.5% claim is posted.
Thankfully they are tend to be cranks who fewer and fewer people listen to, and policymakers working for the next government can get on with trying to develop an economic strategy that doesn’t include “denialism” as its foundational principle.
It’s kind of funny - albeit in a very sad way - how heated up Brexiters get when the 5.5% claim is posted.
Thankfully they are tend to be cranks who fewer and fewer people listen to, and policymakers working for the next government can get on with trying to develop an economic strategy that doesn’t include “denialism” as its foundational principle.
Well at least you are now admitting its a claim rather than a fact. It is surprising how heated remainers get when called on their bullshit truths
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I quoted reliable sources for actual figures....it is not me that is the one with ishoo's you quoted an economist. The definition of the "science of economy" is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday didn't happen. Blanchflower is an economist look how his predictions came to fruition
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
What ‘actual figures’ exist for the null hypothesis ? It’s an experiment we don’t get to run.
It’s kind of funny - albeit in a very sad way - how heated up Brexiters get when the 5.5% claim is posted.
Thankfully they are tend to be cranks who fewer and fewer people listen to, and policymakers working for the next government can get on with trying to develop an economic strategy that doesn’t include “denialism” as its foundational principle.
Except that YOU are the one unable to link to reliable data and citations for your claim, and your opponents are actually adducing evidence
FWIW it seems obvious to me we took a hit on GDP from severely disrupting our trade with our biggest trading partners. How can it not?
Yet 5.5% is surely an exaggeration and ridiculously precise. Like saying I am 34.7% drunk on wheat beer in Poland
Trump: Whatever documents a president decides to take with him, he has the absolute and unquestioned right to do so. This was a law that was passed and signed. https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1680369142409441281
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I quoted reliable sources for actual figures....it is not me that is the one with ishoo's you quoted an economist. The definition of the "science of economy" is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday didn't happen. Blanchflower is an economist look how his predictions came to fruition
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
What ‘actual figures’ exist for the null hypothesis ? It’s an experiment we don’t get to run.
Which I admitted, I merely objected to a counterfactual which can't be proved based on some economists "research" being proclaimed as truth. Gardenwalker stated we had lost 5.5% of gdp....he didn't say it was a theory based on research. He stated it as if it was a fact. I also said yes its possible our gdp would have grown more if we were in the EU, less if we were in the EU or about the same if we were in the eu....but none of them are fact because we cant run a parallel earth.
FWIW and this is opinion not fact....since 2019 our gdp has grown by 7.4% vs the eu 6%. If we have lost 5.5% our gdp would have grown by about 13% in the same time. GDP growth of almost 4% a year......when was the last time we achieved anywhere near that? That alone tells me that its bollocks
@Leon when have I ever said that I’m not returning to the UK? Indeed, the plan was to “do three years”.
I am alternately charmed and horrified by the US, albeit I have upstate New York for July so currently more charmed.
You’ve said several times you have no desire to return to our Brexity toilet and you are looking to retire somewhere like north Portugal etc
And your endless and relentless negativity about the UK does not speak of someone yearning to set up home in Sussex, Stoke or Stornaway
StornOway. Though I notice my IPad autocorrects to Stornaway.
When I were a lad there was a thing for made up silly/amusing book titles and their authors, one of which was Nail in the Bannister by R S Stornoway.
I love the Hebrides….
…. But I have spent a cold wet Sunday in Stornoway. Or should I say “sabbath”
Not something I ever want to repeat. I’d rather take Fentanyl. Indeed quite a lot of them DO
You went to Stornoway without realising it is often cold and wet, and the Sabbath comes every seven days?
The last time I went on holiday with my parents as a child - I was 17 - was a massive road trip around Scotland, including a week in the Hebrides. My Dad had wanted to see the planes land on tge beach at Barra, and the holiday grew from that. It was brilliant. I was through the awkward stage of childhood and genuinely enjoyed their company, and there was so little to do that everything we did was madly interesting and hilarious. And while the weather was sometime hilariously drear, when the sun came out, the world sparkled. Lewis was bloody bleak though. Fascinating, in its way. But somewhere to visit rather than to settle.
There is a great folk/punk band from Lewis called Peat and Diesel, who play songs pertaining to modern island life. Well worth looking out.
Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?
It is palpably, visibly ridiculous
Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer
Does it feel young and vibrant though?
I think you need to travel through the UK. After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
This is the capital city
I’m not a Polish expert. Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
Almost all of modern Poland is 'ex-Prussian.' The Russians nicked the rest in 1945.
But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
Pungent PB pundit alert!
Both these assertions are NOT really correct:
> while Soviets did "nick" much of pre-WWI Russian Poland (absorbed by Belorussian SSR and Ukrainian SSR) note that USSR did NOT annex Warsaw and other major areas that were under the Czar in 1914.
> as for the rest of today's Poland, "almost all" was NOT Prussian and part of German Empire, for example Cracow and western Galicia.
> and re: "no Prussians living" in 3rd-millennium Poland, well there aren't many ethnic Germans but also NOT zero; the 2011 census the German minority = 148k.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Over half of all modern Poland was part of Prussia before 1914. 130,000km2 that was Poland was seized by the Soviets (along with a small exclave of Prussia).
Also, the 148,000 Germans will almost all have come after Poland joined the EU. The expulsion in the 1940s was thorough. So there would be no 'Prussians' left.
The southern parts of today's Poland were Austrian pre-1918. Cracow, west Galicia etc. They were NOT Prussian!
They’re a large slab of the region that everyone has some sort of historical claim to. It’s all bullshit.
But it is a historical fact that:
In 1914:
Prussia (or Germany if you prefer) had Pomerania, Silesia and east Prussia, plus Danzig Russia had the central bit around Warsaw Austria had Cracow and Galicia
None of those then polities now exist.
Russia and Germany still exist?
Not as they then were, no.
Old imperial claims count for less than nothing today.
Not quite sure what your point is.
- Of course they are different, hardly any countries are the same. You may as well say Britain no longer exists (as it was then).
- I don't think Sunil or anyone else mentioned the worth of imperial claims today.
You can find similar maps for other elections and etc, that show roughly same phenomenon.
The Polish map is interesting, though it conveniently ignores the Austro-Hungarian bit, which makes me a bit suspicious. The suggestion in the same article that differences between the 2 banks of the Rhine in Cologne, a city I know very well, are due to the border of the Roman empire is pretty fanciful.
The article only hints at the likely historical reason: Poles moved around a lot in the 20th century, and the ones who ended up in the new territories in the west were often the kinds more likely to move around, and ended up further away from family and extended family. Anyway, the story is a lot more complex than that, but this basic divide held up since the beginning of modern democratic Poland, so it's not just about the closer integration of the western regions with wealthy Europe.
It’s kind of funny - albeit in a very sad way - how heated up Brexiters get when the 5.5% claim is posted.
Thankfully they are tend to be cranks who fewer and fewer people listen to, and policymakers working for the next government can get on with trying to develop an economic strategy that doesn’t include “denialism” as its foundational principle.
Well at least you are now admitting its a claim rather than a fact. It is surprising how heated remainers get when called on their bullshit truths
It is quite clearly a COUNTERFACTUAL. It necessarily follows that it is not a fact. What sort of evidence do you expect counterfactuals to generate?
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I quoted reliable sources for actual figures....it is not me that is the one with ishoo's you quoted an economist. The definition of the "science of economy" is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday didn't happen. Blanchflower is an economist look how his predictions came to fruition
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
What ‘actual figures’ exist for the null hypothesis ? It’s an experiment we don’t get to run.
Which I admitted, I merely objected to a counterfactual which can't be proved based on some economists "research" being proclaimed as truth. Gardenwalker stated we had lost 5.5% of gdp....he didn't say it was a theory based on research. He stated it as if it was a fact. I also said yes its possible our gdp would have grown more if we were in the EU, less if we were in the EU or about the same if we were in the eu....but none of them are fact because we cant run a parallel earth.
FWIW and this is opinion not fact....since 2019 our gdp has grown by 7.4% vs the eu 6%. If we have lost 5.5% our gdp would have grown by about 13% in the same time. GDP growth of almost 4% a year......when was the last time we achieved anywhere near that? That alone tells me that its bollocks
Fair enough. I would suggest waiting to compare GDP growth between 2016 and 2026, before you draw such conclusions, though.
@Leon when have I ever said that I’m not returning to the UK? Indeed, the plan was to “do three years”.
I am alternately charmed and horrified by the US, albeit I have upstate New York for July so currently more charmed.
You’ve said several times you have no desire to return to our Brexity toilet and you are looking to retire somewhere like north Portugal etc
And your endless and relentless negativity about the UK does not speak of someone yearning to set up home in Sussex, Stoke or Stornaway
StornOway. Though I notice my IPad autocorrects to Stornaway.
When I were a lad there was a thing for made up silly/amusing book titles and their authors, one of which was Nail in the Bannister by R S Stornoway.
I love the Hebrides….
…. But I have spent a cold wet Sunday in Stornoway. Or should I say “sabbath”
Not something I ever want to repeat. I’d rather take Fentanyl. Indeed quite a lot of them DO
There were usually semi official places you could get a drink (the back bar of the County was one I think), one of which I tried. It was somehow grimmer than nursing your hangover over a smouldering peat fire while contemplating your sins and an unforgiving god.
Today is my son's and youngest child's 20th birthday. He is not here, he is in the Lake District with his girlfriend. But it seems kind of momentous. Our youngest child no longer a teenager. Where do the years go?
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I quoted reliable sources for actual figures....it is not me that is the one with ishoo's you quoted an economist. The definition of the "science of economy" is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday didn't happen. Blanchflower is an economist look how his predictions came to fruition
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
What ‘actual figures’ exist for the null hypothesis ? It’s an experiment we don’t get to run.
Which I admitted, I merely objected to a counterfactual which can't be proved based on some economists "research" being proclaimed as truth. Gardenwalker stated we had lost 5.5% of gdp....he didn't say it was a theory based on research. He stated it as if it was a fact. I also said yes its possible our gdp would have grown more if we were in the EU, less if we were in the EU or about the same if we were in the eu....but none of them are fact because we cant run a parallel earth.
FWIW and this is opinion not fact....since 2019 our gdp has grown by 7.4% vs the eu 6%. If we have lost 5.5% our gdp would have grown by about 13% in the same time. GDP growth of almost 4% a year......when was the last time we achieved anywhere near that? That alone tells me that its bollocks
Fair enough. I would suggest waiting to compare GDP growth between 2016 and 2026, before you draw such conclusions, though.
We didnt actually brexit till 2020 which is why I used figures from 2019 to 2022....we dont have yet figures for 2023 that are accurate but yes long term might find something different. Difference is
If I came here claiming brexit had added 1.4% to gdp which I am not but at least I would have figures to back it up even though frankly claiming it as a brexit dividend would be ludicrous, well I would be wrong for claiming it as fact.
Remainers like Gardenwalker are even more ludicrous for claiming some economists theory is factual, note when he said it he didn't even mention it was a theory just said we lost 5.5% despite no evidence to show it.
Over the last 20 years gdp growth has been about 2% a year...we achieved that 2019 to 2022....to suddenly think that would double for "reasons of being in the eu" even though the last 20 years we were in is risible
@Leon when have I ever said that I’m not returning to the UK? Indeed, the plan was to “do three years”.
I am alternately charmed and horrified by the US, albeit I have upstate New York for July so currently more charmed.
You’ve said several times you have no desire to return to our Brexity toilet and you are looking to retire somewhere like north Portugal etc
And your endless and relentless negativity about the UK does not speak of someone yearning to set up home in Sussex, Stoke or Stornaway
StornOway. Though I notice my IPad autocorrects to Stornaway.
When I were a lad there was a thing for made up silly/amusing book titles and their authors, one of which was Nail in the Bannister by R S Stornoway.
I love the Hebrides….
…. But I have spent a cold wet Sunday in Stornoway. Or should I say “sabbath”
Not something I ever want to repeat. I’d rather take Fentanyl. Indeed quite a lot of them DO
There were usually semi official places you could get a drink (the back bar of the County was one I think), one of which I tried. It was somehow grimmer than nursing your hangover over a smouldering peat fire while contemplating your sins and an unforgiving god.
Yes exactly! I tried to find somewhere to drink but when I did it was so eerie and depressing I decided I’d rather be sober and depressed than drunk and depressed. All that Presbyterian guilt
Lewis in general is quite challenging. Apart from Callanish which is marvellous natch
But then you cross into Harris and suddenly it’s one of the loveliest places on earth…
Isn’t Warsaw meant to be “richer than most parts of the UK” or some such Remoaner nonsense?
It is palpably, visibly ridiculous
Half of it looks like Charleston, West Virginia; albeit much safer
Does it feel young and vibrant though?
I think you need to travel through the UK. After Warsaw, go to Hull or some such.
This is the capital city
I’m not a Polish expert. Maybe all the buzz happens in the ex-Prussian parts, and Cracow.
Almost all of modern Poland is 'ex-Prussian.' The Russians nicked the rest in 1945.
But there are no Prussians living there. They were expelled in 1946.
Pungent PB pundit alert!
Both these assertions are NOT really correct:
> while Soviets did "nick" much of pre-WWI Russian Poland (absorbed by Belorussian SSR and Ukrainian SSR) note that USSR did NOT annex Warsaw and other major areas that were under the Czar in 1914.
> as for the rest of today's Poland, "almost all" was NOT Prussian and part of German Empire, for example Cracow and western Galicia.
> and re: "no Prussians living" in 3rd-millennium Poland, well there aren't many ethnic Germans but also NOT zero; the 2011 census the German minority = 148k.
I have no idea what you are talking about. Over half of all modern Poland was part of Prussia before 1914. 130,000km2 that was Poland was seized by the Soviets (along with a small exclave of Prussia).
Also, the 148,000 Germans will almost all have come after Poland joined the EU. The expulsion in the 1940s was thorough. So there would be no 'Prussians' left.
The southern parts of today's Poland were Austrian pre-1918. Cracow, west Galicia etc. They were NOT Prussian!
They’re a large slab of the region that everyone has some sort of historical claim to. It’s all bullshit.
But it is a historical fact that:
In 1914:
Prussia (or Germany if you prefer) had Pomerania, Silesia and east Prussia, plus Danzig Russia had the central bit around Warsaw Austria had Cracow and Galicia
None of those then polities now exist.
Russia and Germany still exist?
Not as they then were, no.
Old imperial claims count for less than nothing today.
Not quite sure what your point is.
- Of course they are different, hardly any countries are the same. You may as well say Britain no longer exists (as it was then).
- I don't think Sunil or anyone else mentioned the worth of imperial claims today.
You can find similar maps for other elections and etc, that show roughly same phenomenon.
The Polish map is interesting, though it conveniently ignores the Austro-Hungarian bit, which makes me a bit suspicious. The suggestion in the same article that differences between the 2 banks of the Rhine in Cologne, a city I know very well, are due to the border of the Roman empire is pretty fanciful.
Re: Poland circa 1914 versus Poland circa 2011 you noticed the pre-WW1 Austrian part, which the author of the text accompanying map clearly did not.
Maybe worth noting, that most of today's Poland that was formerly ruled by pre-WW1 Prussia and also post-1871 German Empire, was not remained part of Germany until 1945, but was also the lion's share of inhabitants were ethnic Germans. Exception being mostly areas abutting former Russian Poland that were included in Polish Republic 1919-39 which had (again mostly) Polish majorities with sizable German (and Jewish) mainly urban minorities.
Your skepticism re: the Rhine line suggests its indeed possible to push a valid concept - for example, that boundary of Roman Empire affected subsequent history - tooooooo far - such as assuming it is cause of all or most discernible differences between the left and right banks of Germania's answer to the Ohio River.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
@Leon when have I ever said that I’m not returning to the UK? Indeed, the plan was to “do three years”.
I am alternately charmed and horrified by the US, albeit I have upstate New York for July so currently more charmed.
You’ve said several times you have no desire to return to our Brexity toilet and you are looking to retire somewhere like north Portugal etc
And your endless and relentless negativity about the UK does not speak of someone yearning to set up home in Sussex, Stoke or Stornaway
StornOway. Though I notice my IPad autocorrects to Stornaway.
When I were a lad there was a thing for made up silly/amusing book titles and their authors, one of which was Nail in the Bannister by R S Stornoway.
I love the Hebrides….
…. But I have spent a cold wet Sunday in Stornoway. Or should I say “sabbath”
Not something I ever want to repeat. I’d rather take Fentanyl. Indeed quite a lot of them DO
There were usually semi official places you could get a drink (the back bar of the County was one I think), one of which I tried. It was somehow grimmer than nursing your hangover over a smouldering peat fire while contemplating your sins and an unforgiving god.
Yes exactly! I tried to find somewhere to drink but when I did it was so eerie and depressing I decided I’d rather be sober and depressed than drunk and depressed. All that Presbyterian guilt
Lewis in general is quite challenging. Apart from Callanish which is marvellous natch
But then you cross into Harris and suddenly it’s one of the loveliest places on earth…
The casseroled gannet squab a la mode du pays is quite the delicacy, I believe.
Trump: Whatever documents a president decides to take with him, he has the absolute and unquestioned right to do so. This was a law that was passed and signed. https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1680369142409441281
Lawyer who whispered THAT total BS into DJT's ear, deserves jailing life . . . in same cell as . . . DJT . . .
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I quoted reliable sources for actual figures....it is not me that is the one with ishoo's you quoted an economist. The definition of the "science of economy" is someone who can tell you tomorrow why the predictions they made yesterday didn't happen. Blanchflower is an economist look how his predictions came to fruition
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
What ‘actual figures’ exist for the null hypothesis ? It’s an experiment we don’t get to run.
Which I admitted, I merely objected to a counterfactual which can't be proved based on some economists "research" being proclaimed as truth. Gardenwalker stated we had lost 5.5% of gdp....he didn't say it was a theory based on research. He stated it as if it was a fact. I also said yes its possible our gdp would have grown more if we were in the EU, less if we were in the EU or about the same if we were in the eu....but none of them are fact because we cant run a parallel earth.
FWIW and this is opinion not fact....since 2019 our gdp has grown by 7.4% vs the eu 6%. If we have lost 5.5% our gdp would have grown by about 13% in the same time. GDP growth of almost 4% a year......when was the last time we achieved anywhere near that? That alone tells me that its bollocks
I would say there's another reason why the 5.5% does not pass the sniff test. Our exports to the EU were only 11% of our economy in 2019. Much of that was trade in services, which, as Springford admits, has not really been affected. Essentially, the 5.5% hit would imply that almost all of our goods trade with the EU has stopped, or that a fall in business investment and associated multiplier impacts had a similar effect, which is completely implausible.
The CER also say business investment is 11% lower than it would be in the counterfactual, and this drives their estimate. But that clearly isn't due to Brexit - if it were, you'd expect manufacturing investment, where they claim trade has fallen, to have been hit harder than services investment, where they claim trade hasn't been affected. In fact, the reverse is the case - for the last four quarters, manufacturing investment is 11% HIGHER than in 2016, while services investment is 2.5% LOWER.
This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011
The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.
At least the Poles did it properly instead of building brutalist concrete monstrosities. It certainly looks better than Coventry.
Can’t argue with that. I wish we’d had the same good sense as much of Eastern Europe. Which has rebuilt its towns exactly as they were
We built hideous crap
City of London being THE global poster child for crap architecture.
Utterly squandered the opportunity for non-crap post-Blitz rebuilding.
Unfair. The City of London is a bewildering mix of brilliant and hideous. At its best it is an absolutely exhilarating mix of the old and new unmatched in the world. Recall that to the right of this photo is a 2000 year old Roman Wall and an entirely intact 1000 year old Norman fortress
@Leon when have I ever said that I’m not returning to the UK? Indeed, the plan was to “do three years”.
I am alternately charmed and horrified by the US, albeit I have upstate New York for July so currently more charmed.
You’ve said several times you have no desire to return to our Brexity toilet and you are looking to retire somewhere like north Portugal etc
And your endless and relentless negativity about the UK does not speak of someone yearning to set up home in Sussex, Stoke or Stornaway
StornOway. Though I notice my IPad autocorrects to Stornaway.
When I were a lad there was a thing for made up silly/amusing book titles and their authors, one of which was Nail in the Bannister by R S Stornoway.
I love the Hebrides….
…. But I have spent a cold wet Sunday in Stornoway. Or should I say “sabbath”
Not something I ever want to repeat. I’d rather take Fentanyl. Indeed quite a lot of them DO
You went to Stornoway without realising it is often cold and wet, and the Sabbath comes every seven days?
The last time I went on holiday with my parents as a child - I was 17 - was a massive road trip around Scotland, including a week in the Hebrides. My Dad had wanted to see the planes land on tge beach at Barra, and the holiday grew from that. It was brilliant. I was through the awkward stage of childhood and genuinely enjoyed their company, and there was so little to do that everything we did was madly interesting and hilarious. And while the weather was sometime hilariously drear, when the sun came out, the world sparkled. Lewis was bloody bleak though. Fascinating, in its way. But somewhere to visit rather than to settle.
There is a great folk/punk band from Lewis called Peat and Diesel, who play songs pertaining to modern island life. Well worth looking out.
I couldn’t have put it better! If you get the chance, go and see Peat and Diesel, and if you want something less punky, Tide Lines. Stornoway would only just edge Stoke as a place to retire, but the rest of the Western Isles are much nicer.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
My original post was carefully hedged. I had some researchers had estimated the impact at 5.5% while others thought it smaller or larger.
Cue the mass baying of cranks.
As said researcher points out, this finding is in line with Treasury forecasts anyway, so it’s hardly “unbelievable” as some posters who ought to know better claim.
@Leon when have I ever said that I’m not returning to the UK? Indeed, the plan was to “do three years”.
I am alternately charmed and horrified by the US, albeit I have upstate New York for July so currently more charmed.
You’ve said several times you have no desire to return to our Brexity toilet and you are looking to retire somewhere like north Portugal etc
And your endless and relentless negativity about the UK does not speak of someone yearning to set up home in Sussex, Stoke or Stornaway
StornOway. Though I notice my IPad autocorrects to Stornaway.
When I were a lad there was a thing for made up silly/amusing book titles and their authors, one of which was Nail in the Bannister by R S Stornoway.
I love the Hebrides….
…. But I have spent a cold wet Sunday in Stornoway. Or should I say “sabbath”
Not something I ever want to repeat. I’d rather take Fentanyl. Indeed quite a lot of them DO
There were usually semi official places you could get a drink (the back bar of the County was one I think), one of which I tried. It was somehow grimmer than nursing your hangover over a smouldering peat fire while contemplating your sins and an unforgiving god.
Yes exactly! I tried to find somewhere to drink but when I did it was so eerie and depressing I decided I’d rather be sober and depressed than drunk and depressed. All that Presbyterian guilt
Lewis in general is quite challenging. Apart from Callanish which is marvellous natch
But then you cross into Harris and suddenly it’s one of the loveliest places on earth…
Even more challenging with all those dying pilot whales at Tolsta 🙁
The drive to Breanish has some lovely beaches and scenery but it’s not on the way to anywhere else so you have to want to go there.
This is impressive. The Old Town Square. Every single building is a fake. Rebuilt after 1945. Nonetheless it got UNESCO listed in 2011
The Germans knocked down virtually the whole city in 1944, so the Poles had to re-build from scratch.
At least the Poles did it properly instead of building brutalist concrete monstrosities. It certainly looks better than Coventry.
Can’t argue with that. I wish we’d had the same good sense as much of Eastern Europe. Which has rebuilt its towns exactly as they were
We built hideous crap
City of London being THE global poster child for crap architecture.
Utterly squandered the opportunity for non-crap post-Blitz rebuilding.
Unfair. The City of London is a bewildering mix of brilliant and hideous. At its best it is an absolutely exhilarating mix of the old and new unmatched in the world. Recall that to the right of this photo is a 2000 year old Roman Wall and an entirely intact 1000 year old Norman fortress
that's southwark
Reckon that Leon agrees, that best City of London view, is looking out rather than looking in.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
I know. I was thinking of it too. I have friends there, and have wandered it many a time. I've got a history of the Baedeker Blitz in Exeter - and Bath too and so on. So I could see what was there and what we have there now.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
My original post was carefully hedged. I had some researchers had estimated the impact at 5.5% while others thought it smaller or larger.
Cue the mass baying of cranks.
As said researcher points out, this finding is in line with Treasury forecasts anyway, so it’s hardly “unbelievable” as some posters who ought to know better claim.
Well seems so far most people are siding with me, as to the treasury....economists agree with economists is such a huge surprise I have a shocked face
The problem with trying to assess the positive or negative impact of leaving the EU is it bumps up against the pandemic which was in the short term far more economically traumatic. The pandemic followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has dislocated, disrupted and unbalanced the economy. I genuinely don't know whether being inside or outside the EU made any great difference economically.
The short to medium term almost complete suppression of demand followed by the explosion of that demand in 2022 would have happened whether we were inside or outside the EU. I hear and read contrary analysis - some claim the current economy is well ahead of the pre-pandemic economy, others claim we are still struggling to make up the ground lost in 2020.
Will we rejoin the EU? Shortish answer, in the EU's current form, no. However, there are signs the populist parties (mistakenly and clumsily called "right wing") in Europe, while still favouring the free trade aspect of EU membership, want to reverse other more political and social aspects. I'd contend an EU reduced to a free trade block is an EU to which the UK could happily belong. It may be circumstances will lead the EU back to the UK rather than the other way round.
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The problem with trying to assess the positive or negative impact of leaving the EU is it bumps up against the pandemic which was in the short term far more economically traumatic. The pandemic followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has dislocated, disrupted and unbalanced the economy. I genuinely don't know whether being inside or outside the EU made any great difference economically.
The short to medium term almost complete suppression of demand followed by the explosion of that demand in 2022 would have happened whether we were inside or outside the EU. I hear and read contrary analysis - some claim the current economy is well ahead of the pre-pandemic economy, others claim we are still struggling to make up the ground lost in 2020.
Will we rejoin the EU? Shortish answer, in the EU's current form, no. However, there are signs the populist parties (mistakenly and clumsily called "right wing") in Europe, while still favouring the free trade aspect of EU membership, want to reverse other more political and social aspects. I'd contend an EU reduced to a free trade block is an EU to which the UK could happily belong. It may be circumstances will lead the EU back to the UK rather than the other way round.
A free trade block without the political aspects I think would bring a lot of brexiters back to the table including me
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
No that is not the best estimate, it is the estimate you want to push. There is no factual evidence up to 2022 as the last year we have complete figures for that it has cost us any gdp as we have performed better than the eu
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
My original post was carefully hedged. I had some researchers had estimated the impact at 5.5% while others thought it smaller or larger.
Cue the mass baying of cranks.
As said researcher points out, this finding is in line with Treasury forecasts anyway, so it’s hardly “unbelievable” as some posters who ought to know better claim.
Well seems so far most people are siding with me, as to the treasury....economists agree with economists is such a huge surprise I have a shocked face
The cranks are siding with you. The usual suspects.
Most everyone else simply politely ignores your posts, as one does a lunatic muttering to himself at one end of a tube carriage.
After the fabulous work done by the Luftwaffe? Whatever for?
It boils my blood. It really does
We still have many lovely towns and a few impressive cities. But we used to have endless urban beauty - as good as France or Italy
Grrrrrr
I'm old enough to remember old Dundee with the Overgate, the Murraygate and the Wellgate. It had a certain character but it also had many, many tenements no better than slums and narrow, cluttered streets. I cannot deny that the Overgate and Wellgate have been replaced by concrete monstrosities of no architectural merit whatsoever but it is delusional to get nostalgic about what was once a dump.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
No that is not the best estimate, it is the estimate you want to push. There is no factual evidence up to 2022 as the last year we have complete figures for that it has cost us any gdp as we have performed better than the eu
Why don’t you read Professor Springfield’s defence of his estimate and respond to that instead of insisting that the moon is made of “fucking blue cheese”.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
My original post was carefully hedged. I had some researchers had estimated the impact at 5.5% while others thought it smaller or larger.
Cue the mass baying of cranks.
As said researcher points out, this finding is in line with Treasury forecasts anyway, so it’s hardly “unbelievable” as some posters who ought to know better claim.
Well seems so far most people are siding with me, as to the treasury....economists agree with economists is such a huge surprise I have a shocked face
The cranks are siding with you. The usual suspects.
Most everyone else simply politely ignores your posts, as one does a lunatic muttering to himself at one end of a tube carriage.
Only one crank here and he is from new zealand, the mere fact you have to attack me as a person rather than the content of what I have posted which has not been as you say "angry". I have posted facts with sources you have posted estimates by economists with no real world facts backing them. Go home hobbit
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
No that is not the best estimate, it is the estimate you want to push. There is no factual evidence up to 2022 as the last year we have complete figures for that it has cost us any gdp as we have performed better than the eu
Why don’t you read Professor Springfield’s defence of his estimate and respond to that instead of insisting that the moon is made of “fucking blue cheese”.
Why would I bother when I have actual facts showing different....his theory departs from reality then what that says is not reality is wrong it says his theory is wrong.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The "estimate" does not bear a moment's scrutiny. The prejudice and bias that allows people to accept it uncritically says so much more.
Today is my son's and youngest child's 20th birthday. He is not here, he is in the Lake District with his girlfriend. But it seems kind of momentous. Our youngest child no longer a teenager. Where do the years go?
My three are 13, 11 and 8. But I have often pictured how it must be at that stage. I picture my wife and me dropping our youngest off at uni (this bit is simply a reflection of me at that age rather than any prediction of her future) then driving home listening to Sandy Denny's 'who knows where the time goes', barely able to see for the tears. Jesus, I'm weeping now thinking about it. Not sadness, as such, but, well, this stage of life is so bloody precious, isn't it? They grow up so bloody fast. Sometimes I wish I could freeze the photograph as it is now.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
This is spectacularly obtuse, and it says a lot about human propensity for self-deception.
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions. The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The "estimate" does not bear a moment's scrutiny. The prejudice and bias that allows people to accept it uncritically says so much more.
Just got back from campaigning in Uxbridge today. Conservative vote holding up better than I expected, some waverers considering Labour but even most of them anti ULEZ. Labour also out in force and Rejoin EU at the station.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
That would be a majorly significnat event, even if was due to local factors alone. Like Labour squeaking a win in Batley and Spen early in Starmer's reign.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
So we have slightly outperformed the EU since 2019, are predicted to do so over the next 4-5 years but Brexit remains a disaster. This is so endemic and such an unequivocal fact in our media I do not find it surprising that many have been persuaded it has been a mistake. But it is really nonsense. Our successes and failures are a consequence of our own decisions good and mad. The fact that a significant percentage of the latter has still left us ahead says a lot about the EU but not much about our decision to leave it.
Personally, I think the real questions people should be asking is why both the UK & European growth rates have been so terrible since 2008, whilst the US has gone from strength to strength.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
Before spouting shit about this supposed loss of 5.5% gdp please explain why the UK should have grown by 7.4%+the mythical 5.5% when the eu didn't even manage 7.4%
The 5.5% is a made up counter factual no one can prove spouted by remainers to make them feel like they were right.
I used actual figures included the sources not a number that some shit for brains economist plucked out of thin air and remainers jumped on
OK but are we going to believe an economist who has published his research or some guy on the internet with a lot of “ishoos”.
I believe the economist who came up with the doppelgänger model has now given up on it because the war in Ukraine apparently means it’s no longer valid. (But in that case was it ever?)
This guy, you mean?
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
My original post was carefully hedged. I had some researchers had estimated the impact at 5.5% while others thought it smaller or larger.
Cue the mass baying of cranks.
As said researcher points out, this finding is in line with Treasury forecasts anyway, so it’s hardly “unbelievable” as some posters who ought to know better claim.
Well seems so far most people are siding with me, as to the treasury....economists agree with economists is such a huge surprise I have a shocked face
The cranks are siding with you. The usual suspects.
Most everyone else simply politely ignores your posts, as one does a lunatic muttering to himself at one end of a tube carriage.
Only one crank here and he is from new zealand, the mere fact you have to attack me as a person rather than the content of what I have posted which has not been as you say "angry". I have posted facts with sources you have posted estimates by economists with no real world facts backing them. Go home hobbit
As I said, read the article kindly posted upthread for a full defence.
Until you do so, you are justly accused of simply ignoring the evidence. I also note that shouting the word “economists” is not, in itself, an argument.
Comments
- Of course they are different, hardly any countries are the same. You may as well say Britain no longer exists (as it was then).
- I don't think Sunil or anyone else mentioned the worth of imperial claims today.
Polish Election Map Reveals Old Imperial Border
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/348-an-imperial-palimpsest-on-polands-electoral-map/
You can find similar maps for other elections and etc, that show roughly same phenomenon.
Novax is a bigger [moderated] than Max Verstappen.
You are the Casaubon of PB, I’m afraid.
https://www.google.co.uk/shopping/product/2712402925500343430?lsf=seller:8225840,store:13169210351698239157,s:b,lsfqd:0&prds=oid:13971042303006872837&q=snack+cakes&hl=en&ei=Wyu0ZIKZIKeA9u8Pkq6O6A4&sts=16&lsft=gclid:EAIaIQobChMI38Lb1OKTgAMVAQWiAx36uQt-EAQYAiABEgI46_D_BwE,gclsrc:aw.ds
https://www.ocado.com/products/m-s-6-welsh-cakes-510647011?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI38Lb1OKTgAMVAQWiAx36uQt-EAQYBiABEgJ_B_D_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds
https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/tan-y-castell-welsh-cakes
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1680585580403458048
He talks profound bollocks on the subject but poses as some kind of high-minded authority.
Except that’s precisely what some research suggests.
It’s certainly more believable than the reheated Minfordism that Brexiters cling onto.
…. But I have spent a cold wet Sunday in Stornoway. Or should I say “sabbath”
Not something I ever want to repeat. I’d rather take Fentanyl. Indeed quite a lot of them DO
If the 5.5% is real then you should have no problems coming up with figures to prove it, not what some shit for brains economist tells you
Θάλαττα! θάλαττα!
Of course, the EU routinely ignores its own treaties when it suits it, and that's still subject to member state ratification, but, as important, we'll pay £15 billion/year or more in net. It's amazing how that much money will soothe away objections in an organisation as mercenary as the EU, and with a country as grasping as France. The disastrously unfavourable entry terms we negotiated in 1972 removed a lot of French unease, and no doubt we'd be similarly shafted in entry negotiations this time.
They've also always been desperate for us to join the euro and to get their hands on the City of London and cut it down to size - none more than the Frogs.
ALCARAZ!
(Indeed I dozed off during the final game.)
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-squeaky-wheel/201811/why-some-people-will-never-admit-theyre-wrong
Thankfully they are tend to be cranks who fewer and fewer people listen to, and policymakers working for the next government can get on with trying to develop an economic strategy that doesn’t include “denialism” as its foundational principle.
It’s an experiment we don’t get to run.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/66216893
FWIW it seems obvious to me we took a hit on GDP from severely disrupting our trade with our biggest trading partners. How can it not?
Yet 5.5% is surely an exaggeration and ridiculously precise. Like saying I am 34.7% drunk on wheat beer in Poland
Trump: Whatever documents a president decides to take with him, he has the absolute and unquestioned right to do so. This was a law that was passed and signed.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1680369142409441281
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Spanish_general_election
FWIW and this is opinion not fact....since 2019 our gdp has grown by 7.4% vs the eu 6%. If we have lost 5.5% our gdp would have grown by about 13% in the same time. GDP growth of almost 4% a year......when was the last time we achieved anywhere near that? That alone tells me that its bollocks
Lewis was bloody bleak though. Fascinating, in its way. But somewhere to visit rather than to settle.
There is a great folk/punk band from Lewis called Peat and Diesel, who play songs pertaining to modern island life. Well worth looking out.
It is quite clearly a COUNTERFACTUAL. It necessarily follows that it is not a fact. What sort of evidence do you expect counterfactuals to generate?
I would suggest waiting to compare GDP growth between 2016 and 2026, before you draw such conclusions, though.
Biggest sports betting win for me for ages.
Smug City! 🙂
Semi coincidentally, I listened to a live performance of Also Sprach Zarathustra last night.
Congrats.
If I came here claiming brexit had added 1.4% to gdp which I am not but at least I would have figures to back it up even though frankly claiming it as a brexit dividend would be ludicrous, well I would be wrong for claiming it as fact.
Remainers like Gardenwalker are even more ludicrous for claiming some economists theory is factual, note when he said it he didn't even mention it was a theory just said we lost 5.5% despite no evidence to show it.
Over the last 20 years gdp growth has been about 2% a year...we achieved that 2019 to 2022....to suddenly think that would double for "reasons of being in the eu" even though the last 20 years we were in is risible
depressed. All that Presbyterian guilt
Lewis in general is quite challenging. Apart from Callanish which is marvellous natch
But then you cross into Harris and suddenly it’s one of the loveliest places on earth…
Maybe worth noting, that most of today's Poland that was formerly ruled by pre-WW1 Prussia and also post-1871 German Empire, was not remained part of Germany until 1945, but was also the lion's share of inhabitants were ethnic Germans. Exception being mostly areas abutting former Russian Poland that were included in Polish Republic 1919-39 which had (again mostly) Polish majorities with sizable German (and Jewish) mainly urban minorities.
Your skepticism re: the Rhine line suggests its indeed possible to push a valid concept - for example, that boundary of Roman Empire affected subsequent history - tooooooo far - such as assuming it is cause of all or most discernible differences between the left and right banks of Germania's answer to the Ohio River.
It is difficult to be precise, but the doppelgänger method remains the best way to estimate the cost of Brexit when compared to other methods. It should be our central estimate until a better way to identify the counterfactual is found. The evidence points to a big shortfall in GDP as a result of Brexit, and it is important to try to raise growth and not wait for the economy to pick up. I will not be withdrawing the model: Brexit has blown a sizeable hole in Britain’s economic model, and major reforms are needed to recover lost ground.
https://www.cer.eu/insights/are-costs-brexit-big-or-small
Quibble about the size if you like, but the big picture points that
Overall economic growth has been rubbish in the UK since 2016,
There's a plausible mechanism (we've put up barriers to the trade we actually do and that has to be negative and it's not obvious what we've done to compensate),
The scale of the economic hit is the right ballpark for what the econoboffins predicted.
So what's going to make us millionaires by this time next year?
This one is for @viewcode
We still have many lovely towns and a few impressive cities. But we used to have endless urban beauty - as good as France or Italy
Grrrrrr
The CER also say business investment is 11% lower than it would be in the counterfactual, and this drives their estimate. But that clearly isn't due to Brexit - if it were, you'd expect manufacturing investment, where they claim trade has fallen, to have been hit harder than services investment, where they claim trade hasn't been affected. In fact, the reverse is the case - for the last four quarters, manufacturing investment is 11% HIGHER than in 2016, while services investment is 2.5% LOWER.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/businessinvestmentbyindustryandasset
So their counterfactual is what academics call problematic, and what laymen call bollocks.
THIS IS THE MOTTO OF PBERS INTERNATIONAL!
Should be emblazoned on long-longed-for PB BY-ELECTION BOTTLE BUS & Traveling Theatre of the Absurd.
Cue the mass baying of cranks.
As said researcher points out, this finding is in line with Treasury forecasts anyway, so it’s hardly “unbelievable” as some posters who ought to know better claim.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMY_Iolaire
The drive to Breanish has some lovely beaches and scenery but it’s not on the way to anywhere else so you have to want to go there.
Exeter!!!
The problem with trying to assess the positive or negative impact of leaving the EU is it bumps up against the pandemic which was in the short term far more economically traumatic. The pandemic followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has dislocated, disrupted and unbalanced the economy. I genuinely don't know whether being inside or outside the EU made any great difference economically.
The short to medium term almost complete suppression of demand followed by the explosion of that demand in 2022 would have happened whether we were inside or outside the EU. I hear and read contrary analysis - some claim the current economy is well ahead of the pre-pandemic economy, others claim we are still struggling to make up the ground lost in 2020.
Will we rejoin the EU? Shortish answer, in the EU's current form, no. However, there are signs the populist parties (mistakenly and clumsily called "right wing") in Europe, while still favouring the free trade aspect of EU membership, want to reverse other more political and social aspects. I'd contend an EU reduced to a free trade block is an EU to which the UK could happily belong. It may be circumstances will lead the EU back to the UK rather than the other way round.
On national swing Labour should take it but anti ULEZ feeling could squeak a narrow Tory hold
Our economic performance is a result of our own decisions, external factors, and path dependency.
Brexit was one of those decisions.
The best estimate we have is that it cost us 5.5% of our wealth.
The usual suspects.
Most everyone else simply politely ignores your posts, as one does a lunatic muttering to himself at one end of a tube carriage.
Might start with Exeter.
But I have often pictured how it must be at that stage. I picture my wife and me dropping our youngest off at uni (this bit is simply a reflection of me at that age rather than any prediction of her future) then driving home listening to Sandy Denny's 'who knows where the time goes', barely able to see for the tears. Jesus, I'm weeping now thinking about it. Not sadness, as such, but, well, this stage of life is so bloody precious, isn't it? They grow up so bloody fast. Sometimes I wish I could freeze the photograph as it is now.
Lack of investment in infrastructure due to misguided implementation of austerity? Labour supply issues? Planning issues?
Whatever it is, either it’s Europe-wide or the same malaise has multiple different causes in different countries & that lack of growth is one of the major macro economic issues that’s driving the politics of Western Europe today.
& it’s not due to population drops either - you see the same stagnation whether you plot GDP or GDP per capita.
Until you do so, you are justly accused of simply ignoring the evidence. I also note that shouting the word “economists” is not, in itself, an argument.