The Tories working hard to be the nasty party once again – politicalbetting.com

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

Genuine LOL.

But why doesn't she strike every day of the year so her constituents don't have to put up with her?

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.

That would be a wurst case scenario.

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.

That would be a wurst case scenario.

It would be an unusual de liver y

ydoethur said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.

That would be a wurst case scenario.

It would be an unusual de liver y

That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.

That would be a wurst case scenario.

It would be an unusual de liver y

That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.

No balls puns?

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

ydoethur said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.

That would be a wurst case scenario.

It would be an unusual de liver y

That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.

No balls puns?

The England batsmen's shots are nuts. Does that count?

ydoethur said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.

That would be a wurst case scenario.

It would be an unusual de liver y

That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.

That would be a wurst case scenario.

It would be an unusual de liver y

That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.

Stop kidneying me

Sandpit said:

I just went to the bathroom, and we got Khawaja out!

pigeon said:

Andy_JS said:

We need to get back to class-based politics, not based on age.

The broad story of the century so far is that asset prices have run well ahead of wages; that house price increases have largely beaten the rate of inflation, whereas salaries have lagged it or outright stagnated; and that the taxation of earned incomes has been relentlessly ramped to pay for old age pensions and health care, whereas the taxation of assets has been kept deliberately low (and cut considerably in the case of legacies.) It's a system structured to redistribute wealth upwards over time, from the young-poor to the old-rich.

ydoethur said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.

That would be a wurst case scenario.

It would be an unusual de liver y

That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.

Stop kidneying me

I wasn’t going to lower the tone, but since urea I will prostate myself in disgust.

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Pulpstar said:

Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.

That would be a wurst case scenario.

It would be an unusual de liver y

That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.

Stop kidneying me

I wasn’t going to lower the tone, but since urea I will prostate myself in disgust.

Urine a very sad place when you feel the need to take the piss

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

Surrey East Claire Coutinho
Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
Dorset North Simon Hoare
Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
Surrey Heath Michael Gove
East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
New Forest West Desmond Swayne
South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
Hampshire East Damian Hinds
Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
Christchurch Christopher Chope
Castle Point Rebecca Harris
Maldon John Whittingdale
Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.

Yeah, we live in Brentwood and Ongar now so would still have a Tory MP in the excellent Alex Burghart even then

Turned your back on Epping, I see. No wonder you lost your seat on EFDC!

felix said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!

rcs1000 said:

On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

Surrey East Claire Coutinho
Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
Dorset North Simon Hoare
Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
Surrey Heath Michael Gove
East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
New Forest West Desmond Swayne
South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
Hampshire East Damian Hinds
Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
Christchurch Christopher Chope
Castle Point Rebecca Harris
Maldon John Whittingdale
Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.

Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.

Theuniondivvie said:

linto said:

Don't see how the Scottish government can bring this to fruition but good to see that it is being properly looked at.
I would welcome the UK government being similarly open and not just instinctively going for the stick that has failed us for the last 50 years.
https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-government-calls-on-westminster-to-decriminalise-personal-drug-use-12916776

HMG have already knocked it back. One might almost think it suits them to have the horrendous drug problem in Scotland fester on as they blame the SG for it while abnegating their own responsibility.
In case anyone was wondering* Reeves has also echoed Rishi’s line on this.

*Gentle reader, no one was wondering.

MoonRabbit said:

Sandpit said:

Hope no-one has Day 5 tickets for this match.

Not enough rain to stop a result now.

https://www.yr.no/nb/værvarsel/daglig-tabell/2-6695619/Storbritannia/England/Leeds/Headingley

Farooq said:

algarkirk said:

Farooq said:

Miklosvar said:

48 years for shooting an innocent bystander

44 years for burning to death a mother and 2 small children

Discuss

I've no idea what you're talking about

Elaborate

Two prominent sentencing decisions today, both cases abominations. Both borderline whole life orders. Neither is all that far out of line, but whole life could be justified. But it's a good idea to keep it for very rare cases or we go even more like USA. Both cases reflect the rising tariff in recent years. One tells the general public not to take the machine gun when going out. The other, don't set fire to next door house when they are in it. But we knew that, apart from those who didn't.

Ok. Sounds like horrible people getting severely punished for their horrible acts. Not sure I can muster the apparently required level of excitement.

boulay said:

MoonRabbit said:

Sandpit said:

Hope no-one has Day 5 tickets for this match.

Not enough rain to stop a result now.

https://www.yr.no/nb/værvarsel/daglig-tabell/2-6695619/Storbritannia/England/Leeds/Headingley

Let’s hope the Yorkshire weather is more helpful for England than the Yorkshire players have been this test.

boulay said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

He was modelling himself on the cruelest Roman emperor having heard Caligula meant “little boats”.

Barnesian said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

Surrey East Claire Coutinho
Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
Dorset North Simon Hoare
Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
Surrey Heath Michael Gove
East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
New Forest West Desmond Swayne
South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
Hampshire East Damian Hinds
Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
Christchurch Christopher Chope
Castle Point Rebecca Harris
Maldon John Whittingdale
Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.

Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.

Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.

boulay said:

ydoethur said:

boulay said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

He was modelling himself on the cruelest Roman emperor having heard Caligula meant “little boats”.

Which means we can shout at him, ‘shoe! Shoe!’

Will he flip flop like SKS though?

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

Surrey East Claire Coutinho
Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
Dorset North Simon Hoare
Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
Surrey Heath Michael Gove
East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
New Forest West Desmond Swayne
South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
Hampshire East Damian Hinds
Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
Christchurch Christopher Chope
Castle Point Rebecca Harris
Maldon John Whittingdale
Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.

Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.

Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.

Those numbers make the right wing case for PR.

Tories would still have double the voteshare of the LDs even then but less seats.

The combined Right of Tories and RefUK would have over a quarter of the votes but less than 5 percent of MPs.

Labour would have only half the votes but over 80 per cent of MPs with FPTP

boulay said:

ydoethur said:

boulay said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

He was modelling himself on the cruelest Roman emperor having heard Caligula meant “little boats”.

Which means we can shout at him, ‘shoe! Shoe!’

Will he flip flop like SKS though?

Peck said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

Public relations.

Bringing stuff closer to the surface. Cf. Benedict Cumberbatch playing Dominic Cummings in Brexit: The Uncivil War (2019) when he listens to the ground.

I've heard many people who otherwise seems quite reasonable types express the most disgusting and inhumane viscerally felt wishes towards illegal immigrants and attempted illegal immigrants, including children.

Peck said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

Public relations.

Bringing stuff closer to the surface. Cf. Benedict Cumberbatch playing Dominic Cummings in Brexit: The Uncivil War (2019) when he listens to the ground.

I've heard many people who otherwise seem quite reasonable types express the most disgusting and inhumane viscerally felt wishes towards illegal immigrants and attempted illegal immigrants, including children.

Foxy said:

boulay said:

ydoethur said:

boulay said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

He was modelling himself on the cruelest Roman emperor having heard Caligula meant “little boats”.

Which means we can shout at him, ‘shoe! Shoe!’

Will he flip flop like SKS though?

Only a Cuban heel would do such a thing! Or maybe a Dealer...

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scottish loser Murray knocked out of Wimbledon by Tsitsipas

[second thoughts] Sorry, Farooq, Carnyx, Uniondivvie at al.!

Foxy said:

Carnyx said:

Foxy said:

I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.

It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

Surrey East Claire Coutinho
Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
Dorset North Simon Hoare
Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
Surrey Heath Michael Gove
East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
New Forest West Desmond Swayne
South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
Hampshire East Damian Hinds
Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
Christchurch Christopher Chope
Castle Point Rebecca Harris
Maldon John Whittingdale
Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.

Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.

Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.

Those numbers make the right wing case for PR.

Tories would still have double the voteshare of the LDs even then but less seats.

The combined Right of Tories and RefUK would have over a quarter of the votes but less than 5 percent of MPs.

Labour would have only half the votes but over 80 per cent of MPs with FPTP

DavidL said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

Unpopular said:

felix said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!

To be honest, if they stopped doing the extras outside of their hours, the whole system could not cope. It would be suggestible as a form of industrial action save for the fact it's not very visible.

I’m willing to bet it will happen this year though. More unadapted rubbish from Twinkl or Oak and no changes made for disabled students because the remaining staff either haven’t the time or can’t be bothered will become even more prevalent next year. There are of course dud teachers who never bother to work outside lessons and so nobody will notice the difference, but overall things will deteriorate.

That’s not going to be great for standards in itself, of course.

I suppose the one saving grace is that most materials and courses for the new GCSE will have bedded in somewhat.

The other thing that looks set to be killed stone dead as a result is extra-curricula. No more plays, or concerts, or choirs. No more sports clubs. No more chess or debating societies. And that will again be bad for standards. Lack of socialisation, physical and mental development.

Starmer’s right to be worried about this withering but I see no sign at the moment he has any meaningful solutions of his own.

If the teaching assistants insisted on taking their (unpaid) breaks in full, there'd be no outside time on the playground at all for anyone either.

Like care assistants aren't paid for travel time between clients' houses. But PBTories assure us we have full employment. Just a shame the employment isn't fully paid for.

Isn't it really weird that a sector that treats its workers like shite has a real problem with recruitment? It is almost as if there was some connection.

rcs1000 said:

On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

Carnyx said:

Peck said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

Public relations.

Bringing stuff closer to the surface. Cf. Benedict Cumberbatch playing Dominic Cummings in Brexit: The Uncivil War (2019) when he listens to the ground.

I've heard many people who otherwise seems quite reasonable types express the most disgusting and inhumane viscerally felt wishes towards illegal immigrants and attempted illegal immigrants, including children.

When are they going to start public drownings and imprisoning RNLI crews and supporting volunteers?

Clue: they've already tried [edit] to get powers to do the latter. And taken a very long time to change the proposed law when it was pointed out what they would be able to do. At the same time as the right winger media were whipping up hatred for the RNLI for saving brown and black childre from drowning elsewher ein the world.

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Carnyx said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

Unpopular said:

felix said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!

To be honest, if they stopped doing the extras outside of their hours, the whole system could not cope. It would be suggestible as a form of industrial action save for the fact it's not very visible.

I’m willing to bet it will happen this year though. More unadapted rubbish from Twinkl or Oak and no changes made for disabled students because the remaining staff either haven’t the time or can’t be bothered will become even more prevalent next year. There are of course dud teachers who never bother to work outside lessons and so nobody will notice the difference, but overall things will deteriorate.

That’s not going to be great for standards in itself, of course.

I suppose the one saving grace is that most materials and courses for the new GCSE will have bedded in somewhat.

The other thing that looks set to be killed stone dead as a result is extra-curricula. No more plays, or concerts, or choirs. No more sports clubs. No more chess or debating societies. And that will again be bad for standards. Lack of socialisation, physical and mental development.

Starmer’s right to be worried about this withering but I see no sign at the moment he has any meaningful solutions of his own.

If the teaching assistants insisted on taking their (unpaid) breaks in full, there'd be no outside time on the playground at all for anyone either.

Like care assistants aren't paid for travel time between clients' houses. But PBTories assure us we have full employment. Just a shame the employment isn't fully paid for.

Isn't it really weird that a sector that treats its workers like shite has a real problem with recruitment? It is almost as if there was some connection.

We have been repeatedly told by Good People that the only possible solution is to import the Right* People who will work for those wages & conditions.

As opposed to Gammon Brexiter Neon Fascist Racist Transphobic Homophobic Lazy Scum. Who spend their days sliding down the vast piles of vast unemployment benefit/state pension money in their mansions. Instead of working the said minimum wage jobs like the serfs they are supposed to be.

So the only decent thing is to make the Gammon Brexiter Neon Fascist Racist Transphobic Homophobic Lazy Scum into soap.

That and bringing back Scottish style slavery, so that they can be forced to work (the ones we don't make into soap).

*Bit like Right Whales - they are Right for us, not so much for their own benefit....

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

Carnyx said:

Foxy said:

I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.

It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.

Yeah, but they pay a lot more tax up here.

Not 15% more!

rcs1000 said:

On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

Peck said:

Gardenwalker said:

Apparently the writer of “the email” is some kind of pest. There’s a harassment case.

OMG. Any source on this that it would be appropriate to post?

This was the third main possibility.

1 was exy or somebody who is very close to her and who feels her pain.
2 was a highly capable disinterested professional.
3 was a nutter who only knows about these people from the media and who is at least borderline psychotic, capable of handling facts but also prone to believing that false stuff he has imagined is true.

I know of somebody who'd be a fit for 3, a deranged psychology and computer science academic who for many years has plagued a chat site I go to, ranting like a m*f* about what he believes are the extra-marital affairs and unlawfully youngster-focused behaviours of other chatters. He has also carried out harassment off-site. The guy is clever, technically sussed, and highly manipulative. I've always expected he'll end up in jail. Not saying it's him, but such types exist and it could be.

Carnyx said:

geoffw said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

Carnyx said:

Foxy said:

I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.

It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.

Yeah, but they pay a lot more tax up here.

Not 15% more!

They'll pay more than 15% more tax than they were paying before

You might want to rethink that ...

geoffw said:

Barnesian said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

Surrey East Claire Coutinho
Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
Dorset North Simon Hoare
Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
Surrey Heath Michael Gove
East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
New Forest West Desmond Swayne
South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
Hampshire East Damian Hinds
Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
Christchurch Christopher Chope
Castle Point Rebecca Harris
Maldon John Whittingdale
Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.

Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.

Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.

Nice free and easy extrapolation there (I thought you'd know better). If you extrapolate the yellows and greens in the same way you'll have a missing 15% or so to play with at the end date. That'll be SNP plus Reform no doubt.

rcs1000 said:

geoffw said:

Barnesian said:

Foxy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Leon said:

For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

Surrey East Claire Coutinho
Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
Dorset North Simon Hoare
Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
Surrey Heath Michael Gove
East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
New Forest West Desmond Swayne
South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
Hampshire East Damian Hinds
Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
Christchurch Christopher Chope
Castle Point Rebecca Harris
Maldon John Whittingdale
Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.

Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.

Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.

Nice free and easy extrapolation there (I thought you'd know better). If you extrapolate the yellows and greens in the same way you'll have a missing 15% or so to play with at the end date. That'll be SNP plus Reform no doubt.

538 has done some great work on opinion polls, and last week's (or month's) move has no predictive power whatsover.

In other words, the trend is not your friend.

(Here you go: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-misunderstanding-of-momentum/)