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The Tories working hard to be the nasty party once again – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    ydoethur said:

    Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

    Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

    Genuine LOL.

    But why doesn't she strike every day of the year so her constituents don't have to put up with her?
    I was going to post some advice for Andrea, but realised it would get me a ban.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Former Manchester United and Ajax goalkeeper Edwin van der Sar is being treated in intensive care after suffering a bleed on his brain.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,190
    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Another bleedin thai brake. I thought it was cricket that was boring.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    Miklosvar said:

    Another bleedin thai brake. I thought it was cricket that was boring.

    From the back ..... come on Andy....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,638

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Ooops - 2 sets all now, Murray v. Tsitsipas!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    They don't have the stomach for speedy tripe.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    Con cheater?
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Ooops - 2 sets all now, Murray v. Tsitsipas!

    Yes at least they get a 5th round decider. England cricketers, not so much.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    Cricinfo have filthy minds or no sense.

    Australia 2nd Innings
    31.1 Moeen Ali to Head, FOUR runs
    Full ball around off. Bit of turn away. Head goes inside out and creams a grounded drive past wide long off's right for four
    Australia vs England, The Ashes, 3rd Test
    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/the-ashes-2023-1336037/england-vs-australia-3rd-test-1336045/live-cricket-score
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    "Too welcoming"? FFS. Makes me feel ashamed to have ever had a Tory Party membership.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
    That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
    That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.
    Jonny through some tongue at Smith. Does that count?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
    That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.
    No balls puns?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.
    Or SNP. Unlikely, but that poll today ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
    That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.
    No balls puns?
    The England batsmen's shots are nuts. Does that count?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    COME ON, ANDY!

    (He's just had his serve broken in the 5th set)
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
    That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.
    No balls puns?
    The England batsmen's shots are nuts. Does that count?
    Khawaja was plums out.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
    That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.
    No balls puns?
    The England batsmen's shots are nuts. Does that count?
    Woakes is bowling sweat breads! 😇
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
    That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.
    Stop kidneying me
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Tsitsipas breaks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    There’s something wrong with my TV. It’s showing Jonny Bairstow has taken a catch.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    I just went to the bathroom, and we got Khawaja out!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
    That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.
    Stop kidneying me
    I wasn’t going to lower the tone, but since urea I will prostate myself in disgust.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    ydoethur said:

    There’s something wrong with my TV. It’s showing Jonny Bairstow has taken a catch.

    Australia in trouble! In Yorkshire!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    Sandpit said:

    I just went to the bathroom, and we got Khawaja out!

    Have you got a supply of Beecham’s pills?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Hope no-one has Day 5 tickets for this match.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2023
    pigeon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We need to get back to class-based politics, not based on age.

    The broad story of the century so far is that asset prices have run well ahead of wages; that house price increases have largely beaten the rate of inflation, whereas salaries have lagged it or outright stagnated; and that the taxation of earned incomes has been relentlessly ramped to pay for old age pensions and health care, whereas the taxation of assets has been kept deliberately low (and cut considerably in the case of legacies.) It's a system structured to redistribute wealth upwards over time, from the young-poor to the old-rich.
    As you rightly say, these are the actual dividing lines.

    The old-rentier-rich, and a smaller number of their fortunate heirs, have never had it so good. Moreover, they’ve had the demographic and electoral whip-hand and have essentially voted themselves more and more of the pie.

    The young-working-poor have had fifteen and maybe twenty years of shite.

    The problem is that to run an economy you need to incent and encourage the group 2, and to run a country properly, you need to inspire them.

    The maths (and history) says that eventually group 2 will indeed come out on top. In 15-20 years time, maybe, taxation will shift from income toward wealth,

    The question is what group 2 should do in the meantime.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375

    ydoethur said:

    There’s something wrong with my TV. It’s showing Jonny Bairstow has taken a catch.

    Australia in trouble! In Yorkshire!
    Head’s still in the middle. He can screw them.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
    That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.
    Stop kidneying me
    I wasn’t going to lower the tone, but since urea I will prostate myself in disgust.
    Urine a very sad place when you feel the need to take the piss
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Seems the Aussies can't handle either serious pace or complete tripe. Solid medium pace won't cut it

    So if we bowled tripe at high speed, they'd be in offal trouble.
    That would be a wurst case scenario.
    It would be an unusual de liver y
    That wasn't subtle, more a desperate lung-ge.
    Stop kidneying me
    I wasn’t going to lower the tone, but since urea I will prostate myself in disgust.
    Urine a very sad place when you feel the need to take the piss
    It was just a wee joke.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    Answer - being a stupid arsehole.

    Or, to put it another way, his normal self.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Yeah, we live in Brentwood and Ongar now so would still have a Tory MP in the excellent Alex Burghart even then
    Turned your back on Epping, I see. No wonder you lost your seat on EFDC!
    Ongar IS in EFDC and I got the closest result in the District despite not being the incumbent
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    That's more than 23 seats. Are you sure you're a teacher?
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882
    felix said:

    Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

    Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

    She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
    To be honest, if they stopped doing the extras outside of their hours, the whole system could not cope. It would be suggestible as a form of industrial action save for the fact it's not very visible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2023
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.
    Eh? As I posted the Tories would get 52 MPs even on those numbers ie more than double the LD seats.

    The Conservative voteshare even on that poll over three times the LD share too
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    He was modelling himself on the cruelest Roman emperor having heard Caligula meant “little boats”.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,215
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    Answer - being a stupid arsehole.

    Or, to put it another way, his normal self.
    But also- there is very little else for him to do.

    The legislative programme has faded to almost nothing.

    He can't actually fix the slowness of the immigration system without spending money, and the chancellor won't let him.

    Apart from bellicose gestures, the government is basically comatose.

    And we potentially have a year and a half of this to go...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,581
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.
    Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


    Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.




  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    Sandpit said:

    Hope no-one has Day 5 tickets for this match.

    Not enough rain to stop a result now.

    https://www.yr.no/nb/værvarsel/daglig-tabell/2-6695619/Storbritannia/England/Leeds/Headingley
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    linto said:

    Don't see how the Scottish government can bring this to fruition but good to see that it is being properly looked at.
    I would welcome the UK government being similarly open and not just instinctively going for the stick that has failed us for the last 50 years.
    https://news.sky.com/story/scottish-government-calls-on-westminster-to-decriminalise-personal-drug-use-12916776

    HMG have already knocked it back. One might almost think it suits them to have the horrendous drug problem in Scotland fester on as they blame the SG for it while abnegating their own responsibility.
    In case anyone was wondering* Reeves has also echoed Rishi’s line on this.

    *Gentle reader, no one was wondering.


    I guess as a self confessed fromer coke addict, we should respect Sunak's veiws on this :wink:
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    Answer - being a stupid arsehole.

    Or, to put it another way, his normal self.
    But also- there is very little else for him to do.

    The legislative programme has faded to almost nothing.

    He can't actually fix the slowness of the immigration system without spending money, and the chancellor won't let him.

    Apart from bellicose gestures, the government is basically comatose.

    And we potentially have a year and a half of this to go...
    Also known as the “hold our nerve” strategy.
    Do nothing, hope for the best, and dog-whistle where you can.

    For all the issues that PBers love to point about the US, the economy is broadly in fine shape and there is still a latent belief that tomorrow things can be even better.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Sandpit said:

    Hope no-one has Day 5 tickets for this match.

    Not enough rain to stop a result now.

    https://www.yr.no/nb/værvarsel/daglig-tabell/2-6695619/Storbritannia/England/Leeds/Headingley
    Let’s hope the Yorkshire weather is more helpful for England than the Yorkshire players have been this test.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    edited July 2023
    Unpopular said:

    felix said:

    Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

    Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

    She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
    To be honest, if they stopped doing the extras outside of their hours, the whole system could not cope. It would be suggestible as a form of industrial action save for the fact it's not very visible.
    I’m willing to bet it will happen this year though. More unadapted rubbish from Twinkl or Oak and no changes made for disabled students because the remaining staff either haven’t the time or can’t be bothered will become even more prevalent next year. There are of course dud teachers who never bother to work outside lessons and so nobody will notice the difference, but overall things will deteriorate.

    That’s not going to be great for standards in itself, of course.

    I suppose the one saving grace is that most materials and courses for the new GCSE will have bedded in somewhat.

    The other thing that looks set to be killed stone dead as a result is extra-curricula. No more plays, or concerts, or choirs. No more sports clubs. No more chess or debating societies. And that will again be bad for standards. Lack of socialisation, physical and mental development.

    Starmer’s right to be worried about this withering but I see no sign at the moment he has any meaningful solutions of his own.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    edited July 2023
    Farooq said:

    algarkirk said:

    Farooq said:

    Miklosvar said:

    48 years for shooting an innocent bystander

    44 years for burning to death a mother and 2 small children

    Discuss

    I've no idea what you're talking about

    Elaborate
    Two prominent sentencing decisions today, both cases abominations. Both borderline whole life orders. Neither is all that far out of line, but whole life could be justified. But it's a good idea to keep it for very rare cases or we go even more like USA. Both cases reflect the rising tariff in recent years. One tells the general public not to take the machine gun when going out. The other, don't set fire to next door house when they are in it. But we knew that, apart from those who didn't.
    Ok. Sounds like horrible people getting severely punished for their horrible acts. Not sure I can muster the apparently required level of excitement.
    Both cases max out the sentencing guidelines in a number of ways. Not much to see here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2023
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.
    Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


    Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.




    Those numbers make the right wing case for PR.

    Tories would still have double the voteshare of the LDs even then but less seats.

    The combined Right of Tories and RefUK would have over a quarter of the votes but less than 5 percent of MPs.

    Labour would have only half the votes but over 80 per cent of MPs with FPTP
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    boulay said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hope no-one has Day 5 tickets for this match.

    Not enough rain to stop a result now.

    https://www.yr.no/nb/værvarsel/daglig-tabell/2-6695619/Storbritannia/England/Leeds/Headingley
    Let’s hope the Yorkshire weather is more helpful for England than the Yorkshire players have been this test.
    . .
    😠
  • PeckPeck Posts: 517

    Apparently the writer of “the email” is some kind of pest. There’s a harassment case.

    OMG. Any source on this that it would be appropriate to post?

    This was the third main possibility.

    1 was exy or somebody who is very close to her and who feels her pain.
    2 was a highly capable disinterested professional.
    3 was a nutter who only knows about these people from the media and who is at least borderline psychotic, capable of handling facts but also prone to believing that false stuff he has imagined is true.

    I know of somebody who'd be a fit for 3, a deranged psychology and computer science academic who for many years has plagued a chat site I go to, ranting like a m*f* about what he believes are the extra-marital affairs and unlawfully youngster-focused behaviours of other chatters. He has also carried out harassment off-site. The guy is clever, technically sussed, and highly manipulative. I've always expected he'll end up in jail. Not saying it's him, but such types exist and it could be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    edited July 2023
    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    He was modelling himself on the cruelest Roman emperor having heard Caligula meant “little boats”.
    Which means we can shout at him, ‘shoe! Shoe!’

    (Yes, I know it means ‘boot,’ but that doesn’t work as a pun.)
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    He was modelling himself on the cruelest Roman emperor having heard Caligula meant “little boats”.
    Which means we can shout at him, ‘shoe! Shoe!’
    Will he flip flop like SKS though?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    edited July 2023
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.
    Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


    Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.




    Nice free and easy extrapolation there (I thought you'd know better). If you extrapolate the yellows and greens in the same way you'll have a missing 15% or so to play with at the end date. That'll be SNP plus Reform no doubt.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    ydoethur said:

    Unpopular said:

    felix said:

    Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

    Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

    She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
    To be honest, if they stopped doing the extras outside of their hours, the whole system could not cope. It would be suggestible as a form of industrial action save for the fact it's not very visible.
    I’m willing to bet it will happen this year though. More unadapted rubbish from Twinkl or Oak and no changes made for disabled students because the remaining staff either haven’t the time or can’t be bothered will become even more prevalent next year. There are of course dud teachers who never bother to work outside lessons and so nobody will notice the difference, but overall things will deteriorate.

    That’s not going to be great for standards in itself, of course.

    I suppose the one saving grace is that most materials and courses for the new GCSE will have bedded in somewhat.

    The other thing that looks set to be killed stone dead as a result is extra-curricula. No more plays, or concerts, or choirs. No more sports clubs. No more chess or debating societies. And that will again be bad for standards. Lack of socialisation, physical and mental development.

    Starmer’s right to be worried about this withering but I see no sign at the moment he has any meaningful solutions of his own.
    If the teaching assistants insisted on taking their (unpaid) breaks in full, there'd be no outside time on the playground at all for anyone either.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375
    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    He was modelling himself on the cruelest Roman emperor having heard Caligula meant “little boats”.
    Which means we can shout at him, ‘shoe! Shoe!’
    Will he flip flop like SKS though?
    possibly, although the problem with this lot is they’re mired in sandal.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Unpopular said:

    felix said:

    Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

    Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

    She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
    To be honest, if they stopped doing the extras outside of their hours, the whole system could not cope. It would be suggestible as a form of industrial action save for the fact it's not very visible.
    I’m willing to bet it will happen this year though. More unadapted rubbish from Twinkl or Oak and no changes made for disabled students because the remaining staff either haven’t the time or can’t be bothered will become even more prevalent next year. There are of course dud teachers who never bother to work outside lessons and so nobody will notice the difference, but overall things will deteriorate.

    That’s not going to be great for standards in itself, of course.

    I suppose the one saving grace is that most materials and courses for the new GCSE will have bedded in somewhat.

    The other thing that looks set to be killed stone dead as a result is extra-curricula. No more plays, or concerts, or choirs. No more sports clubs. No more chess or debating societies. And that will again be bad for standards. Lack of socialisation, physical and mental development.

    Starmer’s right to be worried about this withering but I see no sign at the moment he has any meaningful solutions of his own.
    If the teaching assistants insisted on taking their (unpaid) breaks in full, there'd be no outside time on the playground at all for anyone either.
    Like care assistants aren't paid for travel time between clients' houses. But PBTories assure us we have full employment. Just a shame the employment isn't fully paid for.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.
    Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


    Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.




    Those numbers make the right wing case for PR.

    Tories would still have double the voteshare of the LDs even then but less seats.

    The combined Right of Tories and RefUK would have over a quarter of the votes but less than 5 percent of MPs.

    Labour would have only half the votes but over 80 per cent of MPs with FPTP
    To summarise the right wing case for PR then.
    It's perfect till it works against us?
  • PeckPeck Posts: 517
    edited July 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    Public relations.

    Bringing stuff closer to the surface. Cf. Benedict Cumberbatch playing Dominic Cummings in Brexit: The Uncivil War (2019) when he listens to the ground.

    I've heard many people who otherwise seem quite reasonable types express the most disgusting and inhumane viscerally felt wishes towards illegal immigrants and attempted illegal immigrants, including children.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,638
    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    He was modelling himself on the cruelest Roman emperor having heard Caligula meant “little boats”.
    Which means we can shout at him, ‘shoe! Shoe!’
    Will he flip flop like SKS though?
    Only a Cuban heel would do such a thing! Or maybe a Dealer...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Unpopular said:

    felix said:

    Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

    Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

    She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
    To be honest, if they stopped doing the extras outside of their hours, the whole system could not cope. It would be suggestible as a form of industrial action save for the fact it's not very visible.
    I’m willing to bet it will happen this year though. More unadapted rubbish from Twinkl or Oak and no changes made for disabled students because the remaining staff either haven’t the time or can’t be bothered will become even more prevalent next year. There are of course dud teachers who never bother to work outside lessons and so nobody will notice the difference, but overall things will deteriorate.

    That’s not going to be great for standards in itself, of course.

    I suppose the one saving grace is that most materials and courses for the new GCSE will have bedded in somewhat.

    The other thing that looks set to be killed stone dead as a result is extra-curricula. No more plays, or concerts, or choirs. No more sports clubs. No more chess or debating societies. And that will again be bad for standards. Lack of socialisation, physical and mental development.

    Starmer’s right to be worried about this withering but I see no sign at the moment he has any meaningful solutions of his own.
    If the teaching assistants insisted on taking their (unpaid) breaks in full, there'd be no outside time on the playground at all for anyone either.
    Like care assistants aren't paid for travel time between clients' houses. But PBTories assure us we have full employment. Just a shame the employment isn't fully paid for.
    Isn't it really weird that a sector that treats its workers like shite has a real problem with recruitment? It is almost as if there was some connection.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited July 2023
    Peck said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    Public relations.

    Bringing stuff closer to the surface. Cf. Benedict Cumberbatch playing Dominic Cummings in Brexit: The Uncivil War (2019) when he listens to the ground.

    I've heard many people who otherwise seems quite reasonable types express the most disgusting and inhumane viscerally felt wishes towards illegal immigrants and attempted illegal immigrants, including children.
    When are they going to start public drownings and imprisoning RNLI crews and supporting volunteers?

    Clue: they've already tried [edit] to get powers to do the latter. And taken a very long time to change the proposed law when it was pointed out what they would be able to do. At the same time as the right winger media were whipping up hatred for the RNLI for saving brown and black childre from drowning elsewher ein the world.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,638
    I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Scottish loser Murray knocked out of Wimbledon by Tsitsipas :lol:

    [second thoughts] Sorry, Farooq, Carnyx, Uniondivvie at al.!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,638
    Peck said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    Public relations.

    Bringing stuff closer to the surface. Cf. Benedict Cumberbatch playing Dominic Cummings in Brexit: The Uncivil War (2019) when he listens to the ground.

    I've heard many people who otherwise seem quite reasonable types express the most disgusting and inhumane viscerally felt wishes towards illegal immigrants and attempted illegal immigrants, including children.
    Reasonable people in St Petersberg?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Foxy said:

    I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

    Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,638
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

    Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.
    It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

    I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    He was modelling himself on the cruelest Roman emperor having heard Caligula meant “little boats”.
    Which means we can shout at him, ‘shoe! Shoe!’
    Will he flip flop like SKS though?
    Only a Cuban heel would do such a thing! Or maybe a Dealer...
    At least he’s not putting “migrants go home” on the side of Vans.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Murray out.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Scottish loser Murray knocked out of Wimbledon by Tsitsipas :lol:

    [second thoughts] Sorry, Farooq, Carnyx, Uniondivvie at al.!

    So? I'm not someone who thinks it reflects on one's amour propre and nor do I apply the Tebbit or Sillars tests.

    Though Mr Murray has done pretty well to keep going so long. Good for him (and for Mr Tsitsipas too.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Foxy said:

    Peck said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    Public relations.

    Bringing stuff closer to the surface. Cf. Benedict Cumberbatch playing Dominic Cummings in Brexit: The Uncivil War (2019) when he listens to the ground.

    I've heard many people who otherwise seem quite reasonable types express the most disgusting and inhumane viscerally felt wishes towards illegal immigrants and attempted illegal immigrants, including children.
    Reasonable people in St Petersberg?
    Think DJ41 not Saturday staff.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

    Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.
    It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

    I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.
    Yeah, but they pay a lot more tax up here.
  • PeckPeck Posts: 517
    "Maybe we will see some polling on this and I’d be interested to see the gender splt."

    Could well be a case of public polls saying one thing and private focus groups saying another.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,581
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.
    Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


    Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.




    Those numbers make the right wing case for PR.

    Tories would still have double the voteshare of the LDs even then but less seats.

    The combined Right of Tories and RefUK would have over a quarter of the votes but less than 5 percent of MPs.

    Labour would have only half the votes but over 80 per cent of MPs with FPTP
    It's not just theoretical. In Richmond on Thames the Lib Dems have just over half the votes but over 85% of the Councillors. The Tories have only one Councillor (and he is 92 years old!)

    It's plainly ridiculous and indefensible. I hope you are supportive of the case for PR.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    Andy_JS said:

    "How the Conservative "moderates" opened the door for extremists
    If they were serious, they would support Labour now
    Nick Cohen"

    https://nickcohen.substack.com/p/how-the-conservative-moderates-opened

    To be fair Anna Soubry is four square behind Starmer. I don't think Gaulke will be voting Tory either, and Grieve will walk into the polling booth fully expecting to vote Tory and find he couldn't do it this time and will under duress vote Labour or Lib Dem.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Unpopular said:

    felix said:

    Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

    Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

    She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
    To be honest, if they stopped doing the extras outside of their hours, the whole system could not cope. It would be suggestible as a form of industrial action save for the fact it's not very visible.
    I’m willing to bet it will happen this year though. More unadapted rubbish from Twinkl or Oak and no changes made for disabled students because the remaining staff either haven’t the time or can’t be bothered will become even more prevalent next year. There are of course dud teachers who never bother to work outside lessons and so nobody will notice the difference, but overall things will deteriorate.

    That’s not going to be great for standards in itself, of course.

    I suppose the one saving grace is that most materials and courses for the new GCSE will have bedded in somewhat.

    The other thing that looks set to be killed stone dead as a result is extra-curricula. No more plays, or concerts, or choirs. No more sports clubs. No more chess or debating societies. And that will again be bad for standards. Lack of socialisation, physical and mental development.

    Starmer’s right to be worried about this withering but I see no sign at the moment he has any meaningful solutions of his own.
    If the teaching assistants insisted on taking their (unpaid) breaks in full, there'd be no outside time on the playground at all for anyone either.
    Like care assistants aren't paid for travel time between clients' houses. But PBTories assure us we have full employment. Just a shame the employment isn't fully paid for.
    Isn't it really weird that a sector that treats its workers like shite has a real problem with recruitment? It is almost as if there was some connection.
    We have been repeatedly told by Good People that the only possible solution is to import the Right* People who will work for those wages & conditions.

    As opposed to Gammon Brexiter Neon Fascist Racist Transphobic Homophobic Lazy Scum. Who spend their days sliding down the vast piles of vast unemployment benefit/state pension money in their mansions. Instead of working the said minimum wage jobs like the serfs they are supposed to be.

    So the only decent thing is to make the Gammon Brexiter Neon Fascist Racist Transphobic Homophobic Lazy Scum into soap.

    That and bringing back Scottish style slavery, so that they can be forced to work (the ones we don't make into soap).

    *Bit like Right Whales - they are Right for us, not so much for their own benefit....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Online game: name the year: https://www.monkeon.co.uk/the-great-when/
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    Actually they don't care about immigration. Being visibly and grotesquely horrible to immigrants IS the policy. Job done, as far as Jenrick is concerned.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Peck said:

    ...polls...

    @Peck, I answered your question about polls here: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4464473#Comment_4464473

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Carnyx said:

    Peck said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    Public relations.

    Bringing stuff closer to the surface. Cf. Benedict Cumberbatch playing Dominic Cummings in Brexit: The Uncivil War (2019) when he listens to the ground.

    I've heard many people who otherwise seems quite reasonable types express the most disgusting and inhumane viscerally felt wishes towards illegal immigrants and attempted illegal immigrants, including children.
    When are they going to start public drownings and imprisoning RNLI crews and supporting volunteers?

    Clue: they've already tried [edit] to get powers to do the latter. And taken a very long time to change the proposed law when it was pointed out what they would be able to do. At the same time as the right winger media were whipping up hatred for the RNLI for saving brown and black childre from drowning elsewher ein the world.
    IIRC the extent of their persecution of the boat people has been feeding them on Domino's Pizza. Mind you, some of it *was* pineapple pizza.

    As opposed to the French camps/detention centres in Calais, where yet another er... inhabitant, got beaten to death in interesting circumstances.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,638
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

    Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.
    It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

    I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.
    Yeah, but they pay a lot more tax up here.
    Not 15% more!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited July 2023

    DavidL said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    Unpopular said:

    felix said:

    Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

    Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

    She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
    To be honest, if they stopped doing the extras outside of their hours, the whole system could not cope. It would be suggestible as a form of industrial action save for the fact it's not very visible.
    I’m willing to bet it will happen this year though. More unadapted rubbish from Twinkl or Oak and no changes made for disabled students because the remaining staff either haven’t the time or can’t be bothered will become even more prevalent next year. There are of course dud teachers who never bother to work outside lessons and so nobody will notice the difference, but overall things will deteriorate.

    That’s not going to be great for standards in itself, of course.

    I suppose the one saving grace is that most materials and courses for the new GCSE will have bedded in somewhat.

    The other thing that looks set to be killed stone dead as a result is extra-curricula. No more plays, or concerts, or choirs. No more sports clubs. No more chess or debating societies. And that will again be bad for standards. Lack of socialisation, physical and mental development.

    Starmer’s right to be worried about this withering but I see no sign at the moment he has any meaningful solutions of his own.
    If the teaching assistants insisted on taking their (unpaid) breaks in full, there'd be no outside time on the playground at all for anyone either.
    Like care assistants aren't paid for travel time between clients' houses. But PBTories assure us we have full employment. Just a shame the employment isn't fully paid for.
    Isn't it really weird that a sector that treats its workers like shite has a real problem with recruitment? It is almost as if there was some connection.
    We have been repeatedly told by Good People that the only possible solution is to import the Right* People who will work for those wages & conditions.

    As opposed to Gammon Brexiter Neon Fascist Racist Transphobic Homophobic Lazy Scum. Who spend their days sliding down the vast piles of vast unemployment benefit/state pension money in their mansions. Instead of working the said minimum wage jobs like the serfs they are supposed to be.

    So the only decent thing is to make the Gammon Brexiter Neon Fascist Racist Transphobic Homophobic Lazy Scum into soap.

    That and bringing back Scottish style slavery, so that they can be forced to work (the ones we don't make into soap).

    *Bit like Right Whales - they are Right for us, not so much for their own benefit....
    P. 233 here refers. Rather a good artivle, but I hesitate to recommend it here as it might give the Government ideas.

    [journal issue downloads - can't work out how to do it else]
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiT0py7jv3_AhUKIMAKHTJ_CD04FBAWegQIBxAB&url=https://www.balh.org.uk/download?file=publication-tlh-the-local-historian-volume-37-number-4-november-2007&pub=tlh&usg=AOvVaw0Q6rnPxnDTtvlJCkuUoDGG&opi=89978449
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    Speaking of education, from Wednesday, Andrea Jenkyns advises striking teachers:-

    Children suffered enough with their education during lockdown, teachers should put children first and not strike. Why dont they strike during summer holidays when kids wont have to miss lessons!
    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1676702779736309766

    She has a point given how hard teachers claim to have to work during the holiday periods!
    Will Ms. Jenkyns be working during the summer holidays?
    Does she work during term time?
    Let's hope come the next General Election she'll be looking for a sub-Postmistress or a tied publican position in a rough part of West Yorkshire.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,581
    edited July 2023
    ...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

    Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.
    It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

    I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.
    Yeah, but they pay a lot more tax up here.
    Not 15% more!
    They'll pay more than 15% more tax than they were paying before

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

    Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.
    It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

    I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.
    Yeah, but they pay a lot more tax up here.
    Not 15% more!
    And they'll be catching up with their pension contributions after the recent foulup. Tax-free.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: what on earth is the immigration minister doing micromanaging the wall art in processing centers?

    'centres' - you've been away to long.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

    Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.
    It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

    I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.
    Yeah, but they pay a lot more tax up here.
    Not 15% more!
    They'll pay more than 15% more tax than they were paying before

    You might want to rethink that ...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Peck said:

    Apparently the writer of “the email” is some kind of pest. There’s a harassment case.

    OMG. Any source on this that it would be appropriate to post?

    This was the third main possibility.

    1 was exy or somebody who is very close to her and who feels her pain.
    2 was a highly capable disinterested professional.
    3 was a nutter who only knows about these people from the media and who is at least borderline psychotic, capable of handling facts but also prone to believing that false stuff he has imagined is true.

    I know of somebody who'd be a fit for 3, a deranged psychology and computer science academic who for many years has plagued a chat site I go to, ranting like a m*f* about what he believes are the extra-marital affairs and unlawfully youngster-focused behaviours of other chatters. He has also carried out harassment off-site. The guy is clever, technically sussed, and highly manipulative. I've always expected he'll end up in jail. Not saying it's him, but such types exist and it could be.
    I highly doubt it was @malcolmg, but you never know.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Carnyx said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

    Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.
    It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

    I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.
    Yeah, but they pay a lot more tax up here.
    Not 15% more!
    They'll pay more than 15% more tax than they were paying before

    You might want to rethink that ...
    No

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    rcs1000 said:

    Peck said:

    Apparently the writer of “the email” is some kind of pest. There’s a harassment case.

    OMG. Any source on this that it would be appropriate to post?

    This was the third main possibility.

    1 was exy or somebody who is very close to her and who feels her pain.
    2 was a highly capable disinterested professional.
    3 was a nutter who only knows about these people from the media and who is at least borderline psychotic, capable of handling facts but also prone to believing that false stuff he has imagined is true.

    I know of somebody who'd be a fit for 3, a deranged psychology and computer science academic who for many years has plagued a chat site I go to, ranting like a m*f* about what he believes are the extra-marital affairs and unlawfully youngster-focused behaviours of other chatters. He has also carried out harassment off-site. The guy is clever, technically sussed, and highly manipulative. I've always expected he'll end up in jail. Not saying it's him, but such types exist and it could be.
    I highly doubt it was @malcolmg, but you never know.
    Reasons not to consider a political career #2637 I think.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    geoffw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.
    Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


    Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.




    Nice free and easy extrapolation there (I thought you'd know better). If you extrapolate the yellows and greens in the same way you'll have a missing 15% or so to play with at the end date. That'll be SNP plus Reform no doubt.

    538 has done some great work on opinion polls, and last week's (or month's) move has no predictive power whatsover.

    In other words, the trend is not your friend.

    (Here you go: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-misunderstanding-of-momentum/)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    geoffw said:

    Carnyx said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    I see the BMA PG doctors have called off their strike in Scotland to assess an offer from the Scottish DoH.

    https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1677318312613519367?t=CaXmoVb60_G2CCLHtb5www&s=19

    Not even that huge an offer, given the deficit.
    It will be interesting, as that would be about a 15% premium over England.

    I wonder what Scotland will offer Consultants.
    Yeah, but they pay a lot more tax up here.
    Not 15% more!
    They'll pay more than 15% more tax than they were paying before

    You might want to rethink that ...
    No

    The discussion was about Scottish tax rates vs England (or E&W), so there is evidently some confusion.

    Paying more than 15% more tax than the previous year is inevitable on any progressive system. Pension contributions, though ...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    For the purposes of BANTZ alone, seeing the Tories reduced to 15 seats would be intensely entertaining

    Imagine the backwoods cranks and weirdos that would survive, like Japs deep in the Indonesian jungle

    I reckon the party would die at that point. New right wing parties would emerge

    If you go full on bantz with Electoral Claculus (50:25 or something bonkers like that plus a slug of tactical voting), and squeeze the Conservatives down to 23 seats, you get:

    Surrey East Claire Coutinho
    Louth and Horncastle Victoria Atkins
    Cotswolds South Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
    Arundel and South Downs Andrew Griffith
    Chesham and Amersham Cheryl Gillan
    Dorset North Simon Hoare
    Essex North West Kemi Badenoch
    Surrey Heath Michael Gove
    East Grinstead and Uckfield Unknown (new seat)
    New Forest West Desmond Swayne
    South Holland and The Deepings John Hayes
    Wetherby and Easingwold Alec Shelbrooke
    Stratford-on-Avon Nadhim Zahawi
    Hampshire East Damian Hinds
    Hampshire North East Ranil Jayawardena
    Beaconsfield Joy Morrissey
    Rayleigh and Wickford Mark Francois
    Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Gavin Williamson
    Christchurch Christopher Chope
    Castle Point Rebecca Harris
    Maldon John Whittingdale
    Weald of Kent Unknown (new seat)
    Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghart
    Exmouth and Exeter East Simon Jupp
    Godalming and Ash Unknown (new seat)
    Dorset Mid and Poole North Michael Tomlinson
    Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie
    Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey Unknown (changed seat)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell
    Gordon and Buchan Unknown (changed seat)
    Aberdeenshire North and Moray East David Duguid
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont

    Good luck getting a shadow cabinet out of that.
    Shadow cab would be LD. The Tories would be 3rd or 4th party.
    Here is the current straight line trend since the 2019 GE.


    Put that in Electoral Calculus and you indeed get the Tories on 16 seats as 4th party with the Official Opposition being the Lib Dems.




    Nice free and easy extrapolation there (I thought you'd know better). If you extrapolate the yellows and greens in the same way you'll have a missing 15% or so to play with at the end date. That'll be SNP plus Reform no doubt.

    538 has done some great work on opinion polls, and last week's (or month's) move has no predictive power whatsover.

    In other words, the trend is not your friend.

    (Here you go: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-misunderstanding-of-momentum/)
    Quelle surprise!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    You've got to pick a wicket or two...
    Now would be a good time.
This discussion has been closed.