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The Tories working hard to be the nasty party once again – politicalbetting.com
The Tories working hard to be the nasty party once again – politicalbetting.com
Ffs. pic.twitter.com/wPfKXmaPh4
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Fantastic poll for SKS Party
Rishi is screwed
LAB: 47% (+1)
CON: 22% (-2)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
REF: 9% (+1)
GRN: 7% (-)
via @YouGov, 05 - 06 Jul
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icgH_3dXdOU
EXCLUSIVE: Labour ahead in Uxbridge and Selby, polls find in by-elections double blow for Rishi Sunak
https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1677280248201617409?s=20
Labour is more trusted than the Conservatives on EVERY issue.
Which party do voters trust the most on...? (Labour | the Conservatives)
NHS (41% | 18%)
Housing (38% | 16%)
Education (38% | 19%)
Immigration (30% | 23%)
The Economy (33% | 27%)
Ukraine (29% | 27%)
*original copyright expires in 2024, so all depictions since then would be covered, I guess
**not sure whether registered trade mark and can't be bothered to check, but I'd expect so
Scoring enough ticks to pass the bar for even one of those disorders is a different matter though.
Those boxpok wheels
And the wheelspin!
And this government simply hasn't a leg to stand on here. Immigration has vastly increased, legal and illegal, under Boris-Liz-Rishi. Simply being inhumane to migrants is pretty much all they have left now (unsurprising really, as they more than any other government I can recall, have massively prioritised optics over substance).
I don't think the public will be fooled though. Ironically, Rishi's own pledges have spotlighted his governments key failures.
And yes of course TM still applies.
A bit like Winnie the Pooh - the original book is already in public domain, but Winnie the Pooh as drawn by Disney is under copyright still.
https://jlpartners.com/s/Selby_Ainsty_byelection_tables.xlsx
Interesting that Con leads with males, who are a substantially smaller part of the unweighted sample. It's smallish (500) but the difference is outside MoE (random error) so depends on whether they've got their weighting right.
9%
5 wickets with the ball.
With the bat: 6, 4, 6 first three balls he faced this innings.
the t-shirt.
However, LLG 63 plays REFCON 31 is pretty good.
Yougov clearly have a problem with sampling though because there’s no way REF and Greens are on anything close to 9% and 7%. Oversampling politically hyper-engaged nutters.
In fact the 41% Labour are on in Uxbridge is not much higher than the 38% Labour got in Uxbridge in 2019.
So plenty of scope for the Tories to squeeze undecideds with the ULEZ issue
There is a proportion of the population that is, for want of a better word, nasty. Selfish, cruel. Lacking the imagination to think that they might ever be at the bottom of the heap through no real fault of their own.
They're not all Conservatives- think of trade unionists who are happy to screw over other workers to get more of the pie for themselves. And even now, most Conservatives aren't nasty. And most of us reveal streaks of nasty when threatened, and these are threatening times.
But when a big party is scrabbling round in the low to mid twenties percent in the polls, the temptation to go after the nasty vote is blooming strong. Because they're votes and they're not hard to grab.
And right now, they're the most reliable votes the Conservatives have got.
I shouldn't have put 'I guess' as it's not a guess, but my intention was to point out that is indeed the earliest version, so everything is still covered until 2024. After that it will get more hazy as e.g. a direct copy of the out of copyright one would be fine. Any drawing that wasn't a blatant copy of a later version might be ok too, if argued to be a derived work of the original, rather than of a later, still in copyright, version.
But anyway, you'd think comms would have put out that the real reason was concern about possible infringement, not making it as grim as possible for you arrivees. Unless the desire was to be seen to be making it as grim as possible for young arrivees.
Mark Wood c Marsh b Cummins 24 (8b 1x4 3x6) SR: 300
But that's all you'll get. And all you'll deserve.
From the wonderful John Finnemore:
https://youtu.be/Lray-9F1WP4
And why, though they should (surely?) return in time, there's a non-trivial risk that they won't.
Uxbridge 11.5%
Selby 24%
Maybe so, but maybe not.
Taking the latter point first:
It is always worth remembering that the Brexit vote, and UKIP/Reform/Reclaim support, does not draw exclusively from previous Cons. A considerable chunk of that vote is from Labour (remember the Red Wall Con gains). If Reform are on 9%, then even a low ex-Labour figure of 2% means that instead of having a potential 9% gain, Sunak is looking at 5% (7 Con - 2 Lab). Not looking so good.
Then, as any smaller party activist will tell you, there are odd crossovers all the time on canvassing sheets: the former BNP voter now voting Green, the former LibDem now voting UKIP, and so on. Add another 1% for that, and now the Cons pool is 4%.
FInally there are the NOTA voters who simply drift away when there's no suitable option available: in other words the Reform voters who won't turn out for the Cons just because that's the 'next best thing'. Those can be really significant in number: say another 2%. That leaves the Cons with 2% to play with, instead of the 9% they 'started with' as a target.
So, without making any ridiculous estimates, the Con target pool has all but vanished. And I think my estimates, particularly of NOTA voters, are very cautious.
All of this applies to the question of sampling, plus one other factor. If, as I think we all assume, Reform has hardly reached the awareness of most voters, who tend to be low information between elections, what would the impact be on such a voter of seeing 'Reform' as a party name alongside Con, Lab, LDm and Green? 'Reform' sounds good, right? We all think our political system needs reform? Yes we'd like a party called 'Reform' that presumably wants to reform things. But come election time, and people find out what 'Reform' actually stands for, and it isn't hard to see some voters deciding that the reform they want is the LibDem, or Green, or PC/SNP (all right, not SNP)
sort of reform.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=22&LAB=47&LIB=9&Reform=9&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=31.5&SCOTLIB=7.8&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=1.3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=36.4&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Calling out Corbyn's antisemitism and nastiness didn't do the Tories any harm. Nor should calling out the Tories nastiness harm Labour.
Absolutely. It’s not that size of your LLG what matters, it’s what you do with it.
Uniform swing models put the Tories around 200 seats. Which HY will be very happy with on GE Nite. The difference between Tories 200+ seats or 160- seats is not a Con v Lab battle.
Miliband is much better when he's being honest. Sunak perhaps would be too. Or perhaps he is just an empty suit. If you're going to pretend to be something you're not, you need to be a good liar. Johnson was, of course, the master of that. Blair too, to an extent. Brown also tried and failed.
On the wider issue of kicking children in the teeth and stamping on their necks:
"Libraries in England generate at least £3.4bn in value a year through services supporting children’s literacy, digital inclusion and health, a study has found.
Researchers at the University of East Anglia discovered that the services that a typical branch provides in a year are worth £1m, and that libraries’ value could equate to six times their running costs."
Even 20% LibLab tactical slosh takes the Conservatives down to 42.
At 50%, they are down to 21, behind both the Lib Dems and the SNP. The Conservative leadership election would be between Jeremy Hunt, Damian Hinds, Sir Gavin Williamson and Mark Francois.
#justabitof fun
‘fair’. It’s possible (although this is outside my area) this use could fall within “educational” in that it is intended to create a calmer environment for children out of their native environment to play and learn.
More relevant, given that no possible commercial advantage was being gained by anyone by this use, it’s hard to see what damage Disney could suffer, and thus what remedy they could claim. Quite the opposite in fact - if anything HMG was freely advertising their products. Does Disney want a situation where every school, youth group etc up and down the U.K. is too scared to put The Mouse on their walls?
Rishi is even more screwed
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 51% (+3)
CON: 25% (-1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
REF: 5% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @Omnisis, 06 - 07 Jul
England can end up chasing a smallish total in the 4th innings.
If Sunak just says "stop the boats" one more time that will turn things around.
5674th time is the charm.
1/ With Wimbledon in full swing, Labour smashed it in the polls this week. They’ve served up a 26-point lead over the Tories according to our latest voter intention poll.
🔴 Lab 51% (+3)
🔵 Con 25% (-1)
🟠 LD 8% (NC)
🟡 SNP 3% (-1)
⚪ Ref 5% (-2)
🟢 Green 5% (NC)
What’s wrong with LLG voters - are they just plain stupid 🤷♀️
Sadly I can't get the train there, unless they hurry up and rebuild the Southwold Railway...