The Russian News Agency, TASS, claims that Progozhin's statement "is equivalent to a call for a start of an armed conflict on Russian territory, and that he must refrain from such actions".
hmm.
Oh sure, when shit is happening in their own back yard they finally dial back the apocalyptic hyperbolic descriptions of everything.
If Wagner are on the move into Rostov, it's possible that they are heading towards Morozovsk, if there's still a nuclear weapons depot there, as there was in 2017.
Unless Putin comes out of hiding and speaks, then he may not be able to survive this. Russian social media is in meltdown.
Putin is secure enough that he doesn't need to confront this directly - his subordinates can handle it (I think). It's notable that nobody outside of Wagner has declared support, or sympathy, for Prigozhin and Wagner. The state apparatus has rallied around the status quo.
Prigozhin is going to be crushed. The only doubt in my mind is the number of Wagner fighters who will be willing to fight for him to the end.
But, well, I may be completely wrong.
You are probably correct.
However, things can move very quickly. Russian conscripts may decide that fighting Putin is lower risk than being sent to Ukraine. It's also possible that tomorrow will see Russians out on the streets protesting against the war and their current government. Finally, we don't know how much of Russia's internal security apparatus remains available: simply, the war will have had an impact on its effectiveness.
Right now, I'd say there's a 20-25% chance of the coup succeeding. (Or perhaps more accurately, of Putin falling.) Tomorrow, it may look more like 0%, if the streets of Moscow are filled with Russian army troops and Prigozhin is in custody.
But it may also be that tomorrow opens to massive street demonstrations, and Russian regular army battalions refusing to fire on protestors and Prihozhin's columns moving towards Moscow. In which case things could get very interesting very quickly.
My take: Brexit is like the descent into the depths of the Atlantic... Possibly foolish but brave and ultimately could be a huge benefit to humanity...
And Boris = Stockton Rush (a ground-breaking explorer who dared to push the envelope to see what could be achieved by humanity but was ultimately destroyed by his bravery - Or his foolishness)
Unless Putin comes out of hiding and speaks, then he may not be able to survive this. Russian social media is in meltdown.
Putin is secure enough that he doesn't need to confront this directly - his subordinates can handle it (I think). It's notable that nobody outside of Wagner has declared support, or sympathy, for Prigozhin and Wagner. The state apparatus has rallied around the status quo.
Prigozhin is going to be crushed. The only doubt in my mind is the number of Wagner fighters who will be willing to fight for him to the end.
But, well, I may be completely wrong.
You are probably correct.
However, things can move very quickly. Russian conscripts may decide that fighting Putin is lower risk than being sent to Ukraine. It's also possible that tomorrow will see Russians out on the streets protesting against the war and their current government. Finally, we don't know how much of Russia's internal security apparatus remains available: simply, the war will have had an impact on its effectiveness.
Right now, I'd say there's a 20-25% chance of the coup succeeding. (Or perhaps more accurately, of Putin falling.) Tomorrow, it may look more like 0%, if the streets of Moscow are filled with Russian army troops and Prigozhin is in custody.
But it may also be that tomorrow opens to massive street demonstrations, and Russian regular army battalions refusing to fire on protestors and Prihozhin's columns moving towards Moscow. In which case things could get very interesting very quickly.
Let us hope the spirit of Novgorod can triumph over the spirit of Muscovy. I hope both Prighozin and Putin get served their deserved justice.
Unless Putin comes out of hiding and speaks, then he may not be able to survive this. Russian social media is in meltdown.
Putin is secure enough that he doesn't need to confront this directly - his subordinates can handle it (I think). It's notable that nobody outside of Wagner has declared support, or sympathy, for Prigozhin and Wagner. The state apparatus has rallied around the status quo.
Prigozhin is going to be crushed. The only doubt in my mind is the number of Wagner fighters who will be willing to fight for him to the end.
But, well, I may be completely wrong.
You are probably correct.
However, things can move very quickly. Russian conscripts may decide that fighting Putin is lower risk than being sent to Ukraine. It's also possible that tomorrow will see Russians out on the streets protesting against the war and their current government. Finally, we don't know how much of Russia's internal security apparatus remains available: simply, the war will have had an impact on its effectiveness.
Right now, I'd say there's a 20-25% chance of the coup succeeding. (Or perhaps more accurately, of Putin falling.) Tomorrow, it may look more like 0%, if the streets of Moscow are filled with Russian army troops and Prigozhin is in custody.
But it may also be that tomorrow opens to massive street demonstrations, and Russian regular army battalions refusing to fire on protestors and Prihozhin's columns moving towards Moscow. In which case things could get very interesting very quickly.
Let us hope the spirit of Novgorod can triumph over the spirit of Muscovy. I hope both Prighozin and Putin get served their deserved justice.
The latest news which Vladimir Brusiloff had had from Russia had been particularly cheering. Three of his principal creditors had perished in the last massacre of the bourgeoisie, and a man whom he owed for five years for a samovar and a pair of overshoes had fled the country, and had not been heard of since. It was not bad news from home that was depressing Vladimir. What was wrong with him was the fact that this was the eighty-second suburban literary reception he had been compelled to attend since he had landed in the country on his lecturing tour, and he was sick to death of it. When his agent had first suggested the trip, he had signed on the dotted line without an instant's hesitation. Worked out in roubles, the fees offered had seemed just about right. But now, as he peered through the brushwood at the faces round him, and realized that eight out of ten of those present had manuscripts of some sort concealed on their persons, and were only waiting for an opportunity to whip them out and start reading, he wished that he had stayed at his quiet home in Nijni-Novgorod, where the worst thing that could happen to a fellow was a brace of bombs coming in through the window and mixing themselves up with his breakfast egg.
and
"Let me tell you one vairy funny story about putting. It was one day I play at Nijni-Novgorod with the pro. against Lenin and Trotsky, and Trotsky had a two-inch putt for the hole. But, just as he addresses the ball, someone in the crowd he tries to assassinate Lenin with a rewolwer—you know that is our great national sport, trying to assassinate Lenin with rewolwers—and the bang puts Trotsky off his stroke and he goes five yards past the hole, and then Lenin, who is rather shaken, you understand, he misses again himself, and we win the hole and match and I clean up three hundred and ninety-six thousand roubles, or fifteen shillings in your money. Some gameovitch!"
Unless Putin comes out of hiding and speaks, then he may not be able to survive this. Russian social media is in meltdown.
Putin is secure enough that he doesn't need to confront this directly - his subordinates can handle it (I think). It's notable that nobody outside of Wagner has declared support, or sympathy, for Prigozhin and Wagner. The state apparatus has rallied around the status quo.
Prigozhin is going to be crushed. The only doubt in my mind is the number of Wagner fighters who will be willing to fight for him to the end.
But, well, I may be completely wrong.
You are probably correct.
However, things can move very quickly. Russian conscripts may decide that fighting Putin is lower risk than being sent to Ukraine. It's also possible that tomorrow will see Russians out on the streets protesting against the war and their current government. Finally, we don't know how much of Russia's internal security apparatus remains available: simply, the war will have had an impact on its effectiveness.
Right now, I'd say there's a 20-25% chance of the coup succeeding. (Or perhaps more accurately, of Putin falling.) Tomorrow, it may look more like 0%, if the streets of Moscow are filled with Russian army troops and Prigozhin is in custody.
But it may also be that tomorrow opens to massive street demonstrations, and Russian regular army battalions refusing to fire on protestors and Prihozhin's columns moving towards Moscow. In which case things could get very interesting very quickly.
Let us hope the spirit of Novgorod can triumph over the spirit of Muscovy. I hope both Prighozin and Putin get served their deserved justice.
Unless Putin comes out of hiding and speaks, then he may not be able to survive this. Russian social media is in meltdown.
Putin is secure enough that he doesn't need to confront this directly - his subordinates can handle it (I think). It's notable that nobody outside of Wagner has declared support, or sympathy, for Prigozhin and Wagner. The state apparatus has rallied around the status quo.
Prigozhin is going to be crushed. The only doubt in my mind is the number of Wagner fighters who will be willing to fight for him to the end.
But, well, I may be completely wrong.
You are probably correct.
However, things can move very quickly. Russian conscripts may decide that fighting Putin is lower risk than being sent to Ukraine. It's also possible that tomorrow will see Russians out on the streets protesting against the war and their current government. Finally, we don't know how much of Russia's internal security apparatus remains available: simply, the war will have had an impact on its effectiveness.
Right now, I'd say there's a 20-25% chance of the coup succeeding. (Or perhaps more accurately, of Putin falling.) Tomorrow, it may look more like 0%, if the streets of Moscow are filled with Russian army troops and Prigozhin is in custody.
But it may also be that tomorrow opens to massive street demonstrations, and Russian regular army battalions refusing to fire on protestors and Prihozhin's columns moving towards Moscow. In which case things could get very interesting very quickly.
Yes, there are various positive scenarios you can imagine for Wagner. A few dozen Russians caused a lot of trouble in Belgorod. If Prigozhin does have 25,000 willing to follow him that could be enough to take a whole Oblast, and then what? Prigozhin would end up blocking the Russian supply routes into Crimea.
My take: Brexit is like the descent into the depths of the Atlantic... Possibly foolish but brave and ultimately could be a huge benefit to humanity...
And Boris = Stockton Rush (a ground-breaking explorer who dared to push the envelope to see what could be achieved by humanity but was ultimately destroyed by his bravery - Or his foolishness)
Am I on to something? Or am I off on a tangent?
Maybe Boris should have been a full-time writer instead of a politician.
Total fizzle out over next few hours a Prigozhin will be banished to the Gulag
Or
Absolute carnage, power vacuum, infighting, which doesn't necessarily mean good news for Ukraine, as sometimes the Despot you know is better than the Despot you don't.
Total fizzle out over next few hours a Prigozhin will be banished to the Gulag
Or
Absolute carnage, power vacuum, infighting, which doesn't necessarily mean good news for Ukraine, as sometimes the Despot you know is better than the Despot you don't.
There is already a power vacuum. If Prigrozhin is still at large and alive on Monday we are into a new political reality. Meanwhile Ukraine will clear the battlefield.
Total fizzle out over next few hours a Prigozhin will be banished to the Gulag
Or
Absolute carnage, power vacuum, infighting, which doesn't necessarily mean good news for Ukraine, as sometimes the Despot you know is better than the Despot you don't.
I think whatever happens is likely to be good news for Ukraine in the short-term, because Russians fighting Russians means fewer Russians to fight Ukrainians.
The question is whether - assuming Prigozhin prevails - he will continue to fight in Ukraine. And we don't know the answer to that.
Total fizzle out over next few hours a Prigozhin will be banished to the Gulag
Or
Absolute carnage, power vacuum, infighting, which doesn't necessarily mean good news for Ukraine, as sometimes the Despot you know is better than the Despot you don't.
The devil you know has been the consistent policy of the West towards Russia for over a century. It has failed every single time. Massive change is coming and we need to support positive change and not cower behind the "too difficult" box.
My take: Brexit is like the descent into the depths of the Atlantic... Possibly foolish but brave and ultimately could be a huge benefit to humanity...
And Boris = Stockton Rush (a ground-breaking explorer who dared to push the envelope to see what could be achieved by humanity but was ultimately destroyed by his bravery - Or his foolishness)
Total fizzle out over next few hours a Prigozhin will be banished to the Gulag
Or
Absolute carnage, power vacuum, infighting, which doesn't necessarily mean good news for Ukraine, as sometimes the Despot you know is better than the Despot you don't.
I think whatever happens is likely to be good news for Ukraine in the short-term, because Russians fighting Russians means fewer Russians to fight Ukrainians.
The question is whether - assuming Prigozhin prevails - he will continue to fight in Ukraine. And we don't know the answer to that.
Oh, it is quite clear he will fight in Ukraine. But against whom?
Total fizzle out over next few hours a Prigozhin will be banished to the Gulag
Or
Absolute carnage, power vacuum, infighting, which doesn't necessarily mean good news for Ukraine, as sometimes the Despot you know is better than the Despot you don't.
I think whatever happens is likely to be good news for Ukraine in the short-term, because Russians fighting Russians means fewer Russians to fight Ukrainians.
The question is whether - assuming Prigozhin prevails - he will continue to fight in Ukraine. And we don't know the answer to that.
Even if he takes power, itself unlikely, he won't get to keep it.
Is Yevgeny Prigozhin related to complexity theorist and Nobel laureate, the chemist Ilya Prigogine? It's the same surname, Francified for the chemist, who was Belgian.
Is Yevgeny Prigozhin related to complexity theorist and Nobel laureate, the chemist Ilya Prigogine? It's the same surname, Francified for the chemist, who was Belgian.
Prigrozhin seems to have little green men in Rostov on Don. Leaving aside the irony, if the high command don't get this shut down in the next 48 hours, then they will have to roll the dice and take two cards from the "civil war" pile.
This is a major city, it would be like having rebels take over Sheffield. It is also a critical logistics centre for the Russian forces in Ukraine. If the High Command can't get it back inside a week, then they will need to take a lot more cards from the "defeat" pile.
I think that Russia may just have run out of road in one of the most brutal, disgusting, and simply moronic wars in their often brutal and disgusting history.
Is Yevgeny Prigozhin related to complexity theorist and Nobel laureate, the chemist Ilya Prigogine? It's the same surname, Francified for the chemist, who was Belgian.
He is a jailbird who did time for robbing and raping elderly women. As a human being he is one of the few who matches the moral depravity of Putin or Surovkin.
Yes, not much sleep for many people on this side of Europe. Every hour this continues brings Russian defeat and collapse closer. After 20 years living in a growing atmosphere of fear, the hope is something all of us find slightly intoxicating.
Quite surprised by this Russian turn, given the Ukrainian counter-offensive was reportedly slower than expected.
I’d heard news a couple of days ago from an informed source that implied events were seriously shifting in Ukraines favour. This might just be the start.
@BartholomewRoberts Just a tabloid investigation but it seems like there are a million plots of unbuilt planning permissions being horded by developers. Perhaps the failure to deliver housing is not entirely the fault of the planning system and land regulation and something more to do with the economics of housebuilding?
Prigrozhin seems to have little green men in Rostov on Don. Leaving aside the irony, if the high command don't get this shut down in the next 48 hours, then they will have to roll the dice and take two cards from the "civil war" pile.
This is a major city, it would be like having rebels take over Sheffield. It is also a critical logistics centre for the Russian forces in Ukraine. If the High Command can't get it back inside a week, then they will need to take a lot more cards from the "defeat" pile.
I think that Russia may just have run out of road in one of the most brutal, disgusting, and simply moronic wars in their often brutal and disgusting history.
Happy St. John's day!
I guess we will now see how strong and stable Putin's regime actually is.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
Prigozhin and the Russian establishment behaving like the gangsters they patently are. Hundreds of thousands have died; millions displaced; many billions spent, land and towns despoiled and ruined - all in the service of these scumbags and their egos and power trips.
Few countries have been so badly led for so long. I don’t hold out much hope - I understand the yearning for positive news, but this development ups stakes further.
I know it’s impossible for a sane mind to try and understand it, but yeah - just as a mercenary army unfolds an armed rebellion and takes over a key city, the Russian military still finds it necessary to fire a few missiles at residential houses in Kyiv in the dead of night. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1672432756742057985
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
The triple lock must go, but Starmer is a leading supporter of it
The triple lock is CPI, not above it as are many union demands, though I support it being cancelled
Wagner fighters declare that Voronezh has fallen, all military facilities are under their control. This has yet to be visually confirmed but it would be the second big city in Russia that would fall under Wagner control. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672493587995455488
Well we know that the Russian government *was* paying them to fight in Ukraine. Who’s paying them now, to march on Moscow, well that’s a somewhat different question. I suspect their price isn’t particularly high, in the grand scheme of things.
Comments
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potato_Patches
https://russianforces.org/blog/2017/08/where_the_weapons_are.shtml
Two-and-a-half hours drive from where Wagner were reported to have crossed the border from Ukraine.
The issue is how much damage/chaos he might cause in the meantime.
However, things can move very quickly. Russian conscripts may decide that fighting Putin is lower risk than being sent to Ukraine. It's also possible that tomorrow will see Russians out on the streets protesting against the war and their current government. Finally, we don't know how much of Russia's internal security apparatus remains available: simply, the war will have had an impact on its effectiveness.
Right now, I'd say there's a 20-25% chance of the coup succeeding. (Or perhaps more accurately, of Putin falling.) Tomorrow, it may look more like 0%, if the streets of Moscow are filled with Russian army troops and Prigozhin is in custody.
But it may also be that tomorrow opens to massive street demonstrations, and Russian regular army battalions refusing to fire on protestors and Prihozhin's columns moving towards Moscow. In which case things could get very interesting very quickly.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12227209/BORIS-JOHNSON-brave-souls-Titan-sub-died-cause-fills-pride.html
My take: Brexit is like the descent into the depths of the Atlantic... Possibly foolish but brave and ultimately could be a huge benefit to humanity...
And Boris = Stockton Rush (a ground-breaking explorer who dared to push the envelope to see what could be achieved by humanity but was ultimately destroyed by his bravery - Or his foolishness)
Am I on to something? Or am I off on a tangent?
The latest news which Vladimir Brusiloff had had from Russia had been particularly cheering. Three of his principal creditors had perished in the last massacre of the bourgeoisie, and a man whom he owed for five years for a samovar and a pair of overshoes had fled the country, and had not been heard of since. It was not bad news from home that was depressing Vladimir. What was wrong with him was the fact that this was the eighty-second suburban literary reception he had been compelled to attend since he had landed in the country on his lecturing tour, and he was sick to death of it. When his agent had first suggested the trip, he had signed on the dotted line without an instant's hesitation. Worked out in roubles, the fees offered had seemed just about right. But now, as he peered through the brushwood at the faces round him, and realized that eight out of ten of those present had manuscripts of some sort concealed on their persons, and were only waiting for an opportunity to whip them out and start reading, he wished that he had stayed at his quiet home in Nijni-Novgorod, where the worst thing that could happen to a fellow was a brace of bombs coming in through the window and mixing themselves up with his breakfast egg.
and
"Let me tell you one vairy funny story about putting. It was one day I play at Nijni-Novgorod with the pro. against Lenin and Trotsky, and Trotsky had a two-inch putt for the hole. But, just as he addresses the ball, someone in the crowd he tries to assassinate Lenin with a rewolwer—you know that is our great national sport, trying to assassinate Lenin with rewolwers—and the bang puts Trotsky off his stroke and he goes five yards past the hole, and then Lenin, who is rather shaken, you understand, he misses again himself, and we win the hole and match and I clean up three hundred and ninety-six thousand roubles, or fifteen shillings in your money. Some gameovitch!"
See you all in the morning (hopefully).
Today I Found Out, YouTube, Dec28 2018. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5m7X-1V9nOs
Scientist tries to build real-life mouse utopias. One of them went horribly wrong.
Total fizzle out over next few hours a Prigozhin will be banished to the Gulag
Or
Absolute carnage, power vacuum, infighting, which doesn't necessarily mean good news for Ukraine, as sometimes the Despot you know is better than the Despot you don't.
The question is whether - assuming Prigozhin prevails - he will continue to fight in Ukraine. And we don't know the answer to that.
"@BritainElects
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 47% (+4)
CON: 22% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 8% (-)
REF: 7% (-)
via @YouGov, 20 - 21 Jun"
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1672392589545283584
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/resource-uk-nuclear-weapon-release-protocol.379292/
This is a major city, it would be like having rebels take over Sheffield. It is also a critical logistics centre for the Russian forces in Ukraine. If the High Command can't get it back inside a week, then they will need to take a lot more cards from the "defeat" pile.
I think that Russia may just have run out of road in one of the most brutal, disgusting, and simply moronic wars in their often brutal and disgusting history.
Happy St. John's day!
Yes, not much sleep for many people on this side of Europe. Every hour this continues brings Russian defeat and collapse closer. After 20 years living in a growing atmosphere of fear, the hope is something all of us find slightly intoxicating.
Quite surprised by this Russian turn, given the Ukrainian counter-offensive was reportedly slower than expected.
@BartholomewRoberts
Just a tabloid investigation but it seems like there are a million plots of unbuilt planning permissions being horded by developers. Perhaps the failure to deliver housing is not entirely the fault of the planning system and land regulation and something more to do with the economics of housebuilding?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1672372389991137281
Naturally, some took the opportunity to say that it proves the BBC needs more funding.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
https://youtu.be/P4kQvkvGi9M
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672479911980724225?t=COeoOM5XlMtsi5FMMASKNQ&s=19
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
You know somebody is going to get fatally stung. You hope it’s both of them.
You just worry in case the winner suddenly turns on the watchers.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
Which troops can Putin rely on to fight for him against Wagner?
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
Prigozhin and the Russian establishment behaving like the gangsters they patently are. Hundreds of thousands have died; millions displaced; many billions spent, land and towns despoiled and ruined - all in the service of these scumbags and their egos and power trips.
Few countries have been so badly led for so long. I don’t hold out much hope - I understand the yearning for positive news, but this development ups stakes further.
And now is the time for the Belarussian opposition to get out on the streets.
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1672482690451251201
Moscow by teatime...
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1672432756742057985
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672470769610129412
Although I don't wish a nuclear-armed Wagner army on the world.
You know what, he might just be in trouble.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672493722217467904
The triple lock is CPI, not above it as are many union demands, though I support it being cancelled
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672493587995455488
Oh well.
Meanwhile, in other news, a cat has been rescued from a tree in St Neots.