Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
Yet the Triple Lock for pensioners goes ahead.
Tories deserve wipeout, and may well get it..
The triple lock must go, but Starmer is a leading supporter of it
The triple lock is CPI, not above it as are many union demands, though I support it being cancelled
Wagner fighters declare that Voronezh has fallen, all military facilities are under their control. This has yet to be visually confirmed but it would be the second big city in Russia that would fall under Wagner control. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672493587995455488
Well we know that the Russian government *was* paying them to fight in Ukraine. Who’s paying them now, to march on Moscow, well that’s a somewhat different question. I suspect their price isn’t particularly high, in the grand scheme of things.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
As we all get really interested in this situation - yes, it could be a great immediate opportunity for Ukr military, but remember, these guys don't want to end the war, they want to fight it better....(Still, disruption within any enemy is a good thing.)
Well we know that the Russian government *was* paying them to fight in Ukraine. Who’s paying them now, to march on Moscow, well that’s a somewhat different question. I suspect their price isn’t particularly high, in the grand scheme of things.
I think Prig's current 'payment' is survival. It looks as though he was on his way out, and these actions have been somewhat forced on him.
How willing will Russia's regular army be to fight Wagner, and how quickly could that be organised anyway ? We've seen how incompetent and slow to react are their efforts in Ukraine. If they don't have a plan in place to deal with this, it could be over before they react.
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
Russian state TV is in chaos as anchors wait for info on producers who themselves need instructions from the Kremlin on how to cover this attempted coup. Today has been lots of ads & occasional, very brief MOD statements. https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1672497184024203265
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
On your first point, aside from Wagner how many 'effective' units did Russia have? Most of the rest seem to have stalled, or gone into retreat.
How willing will Russia's regular army be to fight Wagner, and how quickly could that be organised anyway ? We've seen how incompetent and slow to react are their efforts in Ukraine. If they don't have a plan in place to deal with this, it could be over before they react.
Its too late. The regime is not going to survive this. The question is now how long Prigrozhin has before the target is on his back.
This is the beginning of very dark times in Russia, but then, unless Russia deals with its past, it will not be able to have any future anyway.
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
According to Wagner, Rostov is still functioning to supply the SMO. FWIW.
That's not impossible, given there seems to have been little or no fighting.
It's certainly a huge opportunity for Ukraine, but if Putin falls in 24hrs, do hostilities just carry on ? Bit early to tell.
How willing will Russia's regular army be to fight Wagner, and how quickly could that be organised anyway ? We've seen how incompetent and slow to react are their efforts in Ukraine. If they don't have a plan in place to deal with this, it could be over before they react.
Its too late. The regime is not going to survive this. The question is now how long Prigrozhin has before the target is on his back.
This is the beginning of very dark times in Russia, but then, unless Russia deals with its past, it will not be able to have any future anyway.
I can't see Prigozhin being able to control the Russian state. Ultimately, he's a fat lazy coward who makes money from cooking gourmet meals and employing thugs to steal diamond mines. He's never actually shown the slightest sign of administrative ability. On his own admission Wagner are underresourced and badly run.
So even if the FSB don't make him have an unfortunate accident with a window, or a day trip to Salisbury, I can't see him lasting even in the event he wins.
But equally if the regime collapses it seems unlikely one of Putin's henchmen could take over.
What would the likely outcome be? Military dictatorship? Open control by the FSB?
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Yes and no.
Growing the economy will be difficult, sure. Tax rises will be toxic, definitely. But squeezing the public sector pay bill at the level of workers is a husk of a lemon with all the juice squeezed out.
Part of the problem is that austerity was more about allowing central government programmes to degrade, rather than cutting areas of activity. (Local government is different, they've had to cut pretty much everything that isn't required by law.) You can do that a bit for a while, but not this much for this long.
There are two options facing the government. One is to systematically stop doing certain things because it can't afford the staff any more. The other is for those things to begin falling over in a chaotic way as unfillable vacancies reach a critical mass. There is no third option.
The first will be politically grim, and I don't know what cuts you announce. Even I don't really want to stop Year 9 going to school. But the second is dishonest, lazy and will create worse problems for Sunak's successor.
Which troops can Putin rely on to fight for him against Wagner?
Aren't the ones currently in Zaporizhzhia meant to be the best?
People said Putin had a special brigade/corps of soldiers dedicated to his personal security, with a separate command structure to the regular armed forces. So, presumably, they are fortifying Moscow, but will they fight Wagner?
I see on twitter that there were reports of some fighting at a couple of points on Wagner's journey to Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, so some poor suckers are following orders and fighting against Wagner.
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
On your first point, aside from Wagner how many 'effective' units did Russia have? Most of the rest seem to have stalled, or gone into retreat.
Russia hasn't exactly been impressive . Some of their best units were minced in Bakhmut in senseless attacks. What's left is of unknown quality as it is poorly led and packed with conscripts. I've been reading Pitt Buttar's history of the Russian front in 1917 to see what happens next.
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
I can't help the feeling that this is an elaborate feint to tempt the Ukrainian forces forward into a trap
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
According to Wagner, Rostov is still functioning to supply the SMO. FWIW.
That's not impossible, given there seems to have been little or no fighting.
It's certainly a huge opportunity for Ukraine, but if Putin falls in 24hrs, do hostilities just carry on ? Bit early to tell.
I’d have thought any new regime would want to cut its losses. They’ll need the army to secure their position at home, rather than continue fighting an unwinnable war.
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
I can't help the feeling that this is an elaborate feint to tempt the Ukrainian forces forward into a trap
Could be, you are right in that you can never quite tell what the Russians are planning, but to date their senior command has not exactly shown strategic insight.
How willing will Russia's regular army be to fight Wagner, and how quickly could that be organised anyway ? We've seen how incompetent and slow to react are their efforts in Ukraine. If they don't have a plan in place to deal with this, it could be over before they react.
Its too late. The regime is not going to survive this. The question is now how long Prigrozhin has before the target is on his back.
This is the beginning of very dark times in Russia, but then, unless Russia deals with its past, it will not be able to have any future anyway.
I can't see Prigozhin being able to control the Russian state. Ultimately, he's a fat lazy coward who makes money from cooking gourmet meals and employing thugs to steal diamond mines. He's never actually shown the slightest sign of administrative ability…
How does that make him different from the current regime ? You’re probably correct about his inability to rule, but in the short term, who knows .
The Tory Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch has asked Ofsted to carry out a snap inspection of a school because, apparently, she believes a spoof story that a child at the school identifies as a cat.
Still a not insignificant prospect that this is all theatre. Putler hands Prigozhin Shoigu’s head on a platter and on we go.
But Putler appears to be coming out swinging. Bring on the popcorn.
The only way I can see some kind of theatre between Putin and Prigozhin making sense is if Prigozhin is supplying Putin with a stab-in-the-back narrative to explain being defeated by Ukraine.
Which troops can Putin rely on to fight for him against Wagner?
Aren't the ones currently in Zaporizhzhia meant to be the best?
People said Putin had a special brigade/corps of soldiers dedicated to his personal security, with a separate command structure to the regular armed forces. So, presumably, they are fortifying Moscow, but will they fight Wagner?
I see on twitter that there were reports of some fighting at a couple of points on Wagner's journey to Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, so some poor suckers are following orders and fighting against Wagner.
But if two cities with populations of over a million have fallen without significance resistance, then doesn't that already amount to mutiny on the part of the regular army?
How willing will Russia's regular army be to fight Wagner, and how quickly could that be organised anyway ? We've seen how incompetent and slow to react are their efforts in Ukraine. If they don't have a plan in place to deal with this, it could be over before they react.
Its too late. The regime is not going to survive this. The question is now how long Prigrozhin has before the target is on his back.
This is the beginning of very dark times in Russia, but then, unless Russia deals with its past, it will not be able to have any future anyway.
I can't see Prigozhin being able to control the Russian state. Ultimately, he's a fat lazy coward who makes money from cooking gourmet meals and employing thugs to steal diamond mines. He's never actually shown the slightest sign of administrative ability. On his own admission Wagner are underresourced and badly run.
So even if the FSB don't make him have an unfortunate accident with a window, or a day trip to Salisbury, I can't see him lasting even in the event he wins.
But equally if the regime collapses it seems unlikely one of Putin's henchmen could take over.
What would the likely outcome be? Military dictatorship? Open control by the FSB?
The FSB are big losers so far. The short answer is I think several short lived leaders from different factions. The Chinese are backing Mistushshin, Patrushev neither father nor son do not want the gig. The speech looks recorded, so where Putin is now is an open question.
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
According to Wagner, Rostov is still functioning to supply the SMO. FWIW.
That's not impossible, given there seems to have been little or no fighting.
It's certainly a huge opportunity for Ukraine, but if Putin falls in 24hrs, do hostilities just carry on ? Bit early to tell.
I’d have thought any new regime would want to cut its losses. They’ll need the army to secure their position at home, rather than continue fighting an unwinnable war.
That would be logical. Russia isn’t entirely ruled by logic.
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
According to Wagner, Rostov is still functioning to supply the SMO. FWIW.
That's not impossible, given there seems to have been little or no fighting.
It's certainly a huge opportunity for Ukraine, but if Putin falls in 24hrs, do hostilities just carry on ? Bit early to tell.
I have no doubt there are still soldiers in Rostov, but if as reported all the senior commanders have bravely run away the frontline Russians will be facing paralysis. Russia's priority will now be the large distraction behind the lines.
How willing will Russia's regular army be to fight Wagner, and how quickly could that be organised anyway ? We've seen how incompetent and slow to react are their efforts in Ukraine. If they don't have a plan in place to deal with this, it could be over before they react.
Its too late. The regime is not going to survive this. The question is now how long Prigrozhin has before the target is on his back.
This is the beginning of very dark times in Russia, but then, unless Russia deals with its past, it will not be able to have any future anyway.
I can't see Prigozhin being able to control the Russian state. Ultimately, he's a fat lazy coward who makes money from cooking gourmet meals and employing thugs to steal diamond mines. He's never actually shown the slightest sign of administrative ability. On his own admission Wagner are underresourced and badly run.
So even if the FSB don't make him have an unfortunate accident with a window, or a day trip to Salisbury, I can't see him lasting even in the event he wins.
But equally if the regime collapses it seems unlikely one of Putin's henchmen could take over.
What would the likely outcome be? Military dictatorship? Open control by the FSB?
The FSB are big losers so far. The short answer is I think several short lived leaders from different factions. The Chinese are backing Mistushshin, Patrushev neither father nor son do not want the gig. The speech looks recorded, so where Putin is now is an open question.
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
According to Wagner, Rostov is still functioning to supply the SMO. FWIW.
That's not impossible, given there seems to have been little or no fighting.
It's certainly a huge opportunity for Ukraine, but if Putin falls in 24hrs, do hostilities just carry on ? Bit early to tell.
I have no doubt there are still soldiers in Rostov, but if as reported all the senior commanders have bravely run away the frontline Russians will be facing paralysis. Russia's priority will now be the large distraction behind the lines.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Yes and no.
Growing the economy will be difficult, sure. Tax rises will be toxic, definitely. But squeezing the public sector pay bill at the level of workers is a husk of a lemon with all the juice squeezed out.
Part of the problem is that austerity was more about allowing central government programmes to degrade, rather than cutting areas of activity. (Local government is different, they've had to cut pretty much everything that isn't required by law.) You can do that a bit for a while, but not this much for this long.
There are two options facing the government. One is to systematically stop doing certain things because it can't afford the staff any more. The other is for those things to begin falling over in a chaotic way as unfillable vacancies reach a critical mass. There is no third option.
The first will be politically grim, and I don't know what cuts you announce. Even I don't really want to stop Year 9 going to school. But the second is dishonest, lazy and will create worse problems for Sunak's successor.
We are fairly much on the same page but practical solutions are as rare as hen's teeth
How willing will Russia's regular army be to fight Wagner, and how quickly could that be organised anyway ? We've seen how incompetent and slow to react are their efforts in Ukraine. If they don't have a plan in place to deal with this, it could be over before they react.
Its too late. The regime is not going to survive this. The question is now how long Prigrozhin has before the target is on his back.
This is the beginning of very dark times in Russia, but then, unless Russia deals with its past, it will not be able to have any future anyway.
I can't see Prigozhin being able to control the Russian state. Ultimately, he's a fat lazy coward who makes money from cooking gourmet meals and employing thugs to steal diamond mines. He's never actually shown the slightest sign of administrative ability. On his own admission Wagner are underresourced and badly run.
So even if the FSB don't make him have an unfortunate accident with a window, or a day trip to Salisbury, I can't see him lasting even in the event he wins.
But equally if the regime collapses it seems unlikely one of Putin's henchmen could take over.
What would the likely outcome be? Military dictatorship? Open control by the FSB?
The FSB are big losers so far. The short answer is I think several short lived leaders from different factions. The Chinese are backing Mistushshin, Patrushev neither father nor son do not want the gig. The speech looks recorded, so where Putin is now is an open question.
How can you say the speech "looks recorded"?
A couple of technical glitches half way through...
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Breaking news: a Russian sub has been sunk in an underwater Black Sea naval battle. Reports are that it had intercepted The Titan's sister sub, The Olymp. Officials at a Ukrainian monitoring station say "the crafts collided and the Russian sub just crumpled".
Hard to tell now, is that a joke or real?
The Titan is that Plasticine & Pritt-Stik toy that sank a few days ago
I'm proud of the name I made up, The Olymp. The Olympic was Titanic's sister ship, see.
I thought it was the Britannic. I don't know where I picked that up from.
Yes, as others have pointed out there were three. I opted for Olymp because Britann would have been confusing and I was trying to make the joke obvious. It seems I still failed in that!
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
I can't help the feeling that this is an elaborate feint to tempt the Ukrainian forces forward into a trap
Honestly, if so then its a feint rather similar to the sheriff taking himself hostage in Blazing Saddles.
Most of the army is now neutral. that is collapse of the regime territory.
I’ll be interested to hear our regular Saturday morning visitor’s take on events overnight.
It will be a good weather vane. He might come on praising Prigozhin in which case the party is over for Vlad or he might come on with some interesting new analysis that Vaccines are bad, Gays are worse, BA pilots die and you should always have pineapple on Radiohead.
Russian state TV is in chaos as anchors wait for info on producers who themselves need instructions from the Kremlin on how to cover this attempted coup. Today has been lots of ads & occasional, very brief MOD statements. https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1672497184024203265
Gives them time to buff up their CV's for Al Jazeera....
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Which troops can Putin rely on to fight for him against Wagner?
Aren't the ones currently in Zaporizhzhia meant to be the best?
People said Putin had a special brigade/corps of soldiers dedicated to his personal security, with a separate command structure to the regular armed forces. So, presumably, they are fortifying Moscow, but will they fight Wagner?
I see on twitter that there were reports of some fighting at a couple of points on Wagner's journey to Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, so some poor suckers are following orders and fighting against Wagner.
But if two cities with populations of over a million have fallen without significance resistance, then doesn't that already amount to mutiny on the part of the regular army?
The interesting thing will be how this changes things on the frontline.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men. - It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them - Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning - Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
I can't help the feeling that this is an elaborate feint to tempt the Ukrainian forces forward into a trap
Honestly, if so then its a feint rather similar to the sheriff taking himself hostage in Blazing Saddles.
Most of the army is now neutral. that is collapse of the regime territory.
See I really do hope Boomer-in-chief Putin is gone, but I have no connection with any source of news other than here. And I assume most of you are getting updates from Twitter. And the problem with Twitter is... well, you know.
Does Prigozhin have any interest in keeping Lukashenko in place in Belarus, I wonder?
He might just be happy to take those newly-installed nukes off his hands - and then leave his regime to its fate. A democratic (and quickly inducted NATO member) on its border would be a huge win for Ukraine.
Which troops can Putin rely on to fight for him against Wagner?
Aren't the ones currently in Zaporizhzhia meant to be the best?
People said Putin had a special brigade/corps of soldiers dedicated to his personal security, with a separate command structure to the regular armed forces. So, presumably, they are fortifying Moscow, but will they fight Wagner?
I see on twitter that there were reports of some fighting at a couple of points on Wagner's journey to Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, so some poor suckers are following orders and fighting against Wagner.
But if two cities with populations of over a million have fallen without significance resistance, then doesn't that already amount to mutiny on the part of the regular army?
Yes it does.
There is a video purporting to show the Deputy Defence Minister meeting Prigozhin after being captured in Rostov. Which seems to have let Wagner in without firing a shot in defence.
Does Prigozhin have any interest in keeping Lukashenko in place in Belarus, I wonder?
He might just be happy to take those newly-installed nukes off his hands - and then leave his regime to its fate. A democratic (and quickly inducted NATO member) on its border would be a huge win for Ukraine.
Belarus can not be held against its will, if Lukashenka has fled. It would be a huge win for NATO too, since it widens the Suwalki gap from 70 km to more than 700km.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Let me guess, you rent and are youngish, only excuse for that lot of utter bollocks. Suck it up loser you will be old and on state pension one day, will see how rich you are then , greedy grasping bloodsuckers liek you would want your parents put down so you could get their hard earned cash.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Let me guess, you rent and are youngish, only excuse for that lot of utter bollocks. Suck it up loser you will be old and on state pension one day, will see how rich you are then , greedy grasping bloodsuckers liek you would want your parents put down so you could get their hard earned cash.
Morning Malc
Getting seriously worried now about this shortage of turnips.
Still a not insignificant prospect that this is all theatre. Putler hands Prigozhin Shoigu’s head on a platter and on we go.
But Putler appears to be coming out swinging. Bring on the popcorn.
The only way I can see some kind of theatre between Putin and Prigozhin making sense is if Prigozhin is supplying Putin with a stab-in-the-back narrative to explain being defeated by Ukraine.
That's possible. But the simple Occam's Razor interpretation is that we're seeing a straightforward showdown. Prigozhin's recent breoadcasts would come close to treason in any country during wartime, including what appear to be a number of outright lies aimed at damaging the military. He and the Wagner group have been extremely useful to Putin up to now, which is why he hasn't been locked up or worse already. However, the move to put all his forces under direct contract to the military would undermine his power base, and that's prompted him to open rebellion. I'd expect Putin now to want to crush him quickly.
Whether Putin will be able to is another question - but the US Institute for the Study of War thinks he has wildly miscalculated. The next question is of course how far this undermines Russia's front against Ukraine. If Ukraine has a second attempt at a major counter-offensive poised to go, as reported, then there could hardly be better circumstances for it. It even gives Putin a sort of exit strategy, as you say - "we would have held on unless we'd been betrayed". Conversely, if Ukraine still doesn't get more than a few villages in the next month, it does suggest that they don't have the potential for a major breakthrough this year.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Let me guess, you rent and are youngish, only excuse for that lot of utter bollocks. Suck it up loser you will be old and on state pension one day, will see how rich you are then , greedy grasping bloodsuckers liek you would want your parents put down so you could get their hard earned cash.
...Conversely, if Ukraine still doesn't get more than a few villages in the next month, it does suggest that they don't have the potential for a major breakthrough this year.
That doesn't follow.
That nature of the defences established by Russia in occupied territory are such that it might take a month or two to degrade the defences and the forces manning them to the point where a breakthrough is achievable, assuming that the Russian forces there stand their ground in the context of confusion and conflict in Russia.
We don't know anything yet about how the Prigozhin rebellion is affecting logistics or command and control.
Still a not insignificant prospect that this is all theatre. Putler hands Prigozhin Shoigu’s head on a platter and on we go.
But Putler appears to be coming out swinging. Bring on the popcorn.
The only way I can see some kind of theatre between Putin and Prigozhin making sense is if Prigozhin is supplying Putin with a stab-in-the-back narrative to explain being defeated by Ukraine.
That's possible. But the simple Occam's Razor interpretation is that we're seeing a straightforward showdown. Prigozhin's recent breoadcasts would come close to treason in any country during wartime, including what appear to be a number of outright lies aimed at damaging the military. He and the Wagner group have been extremely useful to Putin up to now, which is why he hasn't been locked up or worse already. However, the move to put all his forces under direct contract to the military would undermine his power base, and that's prompted him to open rebellion. I'd expect Putin now to want to crush him quickly.
Whether Putin will be able to is another question - but the US Institute for the Study of War thinks he has wildly miscalculated. The next question is of course how far this undermines Russia's front against Ukraine. If Ukraine has a second attempt at a major counter-offensive poised to go, as reported, then there could hardly be better circumstances for it. It even gives Putin a sort of exit strategy, as you say - "we would have held on unless we'd been betrayed". Conversely, if Ukraine still doesn't get more than a few villages in the next month, it does suggest that they don't have the potential for a major breakthrough this year.
Occam's razor is really not a framework you should rely on when thinking about military actions. Deception is a vital tactic and having your enemy second and third guessing is a good situation. Any analysis based on assuming the simplest explanation is vulnerable.
Still a not insignificant prospect that this is all theatre. Putler hands Prigozhin Shoigu’s head on a platter and on we go.
But Putler appears to be coming out swinging. Bring on the popcorn.
The only way I can see some kind of theatre between Putin and Prigozhin making sense is if Prigozhin is supplying Putin with a stab-in-the-back narrative to explain being defeated by Ukraine.
That's possible. But the simple Occam's Razor interpretation is that we're seeing a straightforward showdown. Prigozhin's recent breoadcasts would come close to treason in any country during wartime, including what appear to be a number of outright lies aimed at damaging the military. He and the Wagner group have been extremely useful to Putin up to now, which is why he hasn't been locked up or worse already. However, the move to put all his forces under direct contract to the military would undermine his power base, and that's prompted him to open rebellion. I'd expect Putin now to want to crush him quickly.
Whether Putin will be able to is another question - but the US Institute for the Study of War thinks he has wildly miscalculated. The next question is of course how far this undermines Russia's front against Ukraine. If Ukraine has a second attempt at a major counter-offensive poised to go, as reported, then there could hardly be better circumstances for it. It even gives Putin a sort of exit strategy, as you say - "we would have held on unless we'd been betrayed". Conversely, if Ukraine still doesn't get more than a few villages in the next month, it does suggest that they don't have the potential for a major breakthrough this year.
Putin has called it treason this morning. Extraordinarily unlikely that this is staged.
I guess one of the problems with committing your whole army to Ukraine is that no-one is left to defend the road to Moscow if a random mercenary army decides to turn against you.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Let me guess, you rent and are youngish, only excuse for that lot of utter bollocks. Suck it up loser you will be old and on state pension one day, will see how rich you are then , greedy grasping bloodsuckers liek you would want your parents put down so you could get their hard earned cash.
Morning Malc
Getting seriously worried now about this shortage of turnips.
It is all this sunshine, we are not used to it , was happy to get some rain last night.
Two Lab voters for every Tory, and enough left over to cover MOE.
Can Sunak survive if he loses all the byelections?
Good morning
Sunak will lead into GE24 as changing leader again is not an option
Apparently Sunak and Hunt have decided they will not implement next year's pay review bodies recommendations as they are inflationary
It seems to me they know GE24 is lost but are putting the economy and the fight against inflation above all else
Actually this is exactly what Starmer and Reeves must want as it is the right thing to do, will benefit everyone ultimately, and will see Starmer and Reeves in government in 24 with a good majority
On your first point, definitely agree. The Conservatives are definitely at the Ou est la masse de manoeuvre? / Aucune stage. There is nobody else credible to fill Sunak's shoes if he and Hunt go. (Go on, who takes over if Sunak is run over by a bus this morning? Not easy, is it?)
On the second, the government risk overusing a dangerous tool in the fight against inflation, and it's got a good chance of backfiring. Not so much because of the strikes (though encouraging public sector strikes in an election year is brave, in the Air Humphrey sense). But because everyone knows that schools hospitals councils etc simply can't get staff at the current pay rates. Some of the work I do is in teacher training, and we just aren't getting the applicants this year.
If the government are concerned about the public sector pay bill, there are three broad ways out. One is to increase government income, which means growing the economy or raising taxes. Another is to accept that the state can't buy as much public service as it used to. Stop teaching Year 9 or something. The third is to try to get the suppliers (basically the staff) to cut their prices by a real terms pay cut. The third of those is perfectly valid, and has been happening fairly consistently for over a decade. But it's now got to the point where people aren't just saying it's harmful, it's really harmful.
Far from being the right thing to do, it's chucking another unexploded bomb into Starmer's intray.
I accept your comments, but none of your valid suggestions are practical, not least growing the economy when we are heading into a recession and tax rises are off the table apparently, including Starmer as per his comments yesterday
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
Essentially, the situation is this:
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent *The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits *The politicians won't dare let property prices crater *The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Let me guess, you rent and are youngish, only excuse for that lot of utter bollocks. Suck it up loser you will be old and on state pension one day, will see how rich you are then , greedy grasping bloodsuckers liek you would want your parents put down so you could get their hard earned cash.
Morning Malc
Getting seriously worried now about this shortage of turnips.
It is all this sunshine, we are not used to it , was happy to get some rain last night.
Apologies for my rudeness Ydoethur, Good Morning. Just got Wordle in 3 so good start , just have to hope my current bad run at horses comes to an end today.
Comments
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672470769610129412
Although I don't wish a nuclear-armed Wagner army on the world.
You know what, he might just be in trouble.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672493722217467904
The triple lock is CPI, not above it as are many union demands, though I support it being cancelled
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672493587995455488
Oh well.
Meanwhile, in other news, a cat has been rescued from a tree in St Neots.
The hard truth is many are going to struggle before things improve
As we all get really interested in this situation - yes, it could be a great immediate opportunity for Ukr military, but remember, these guys don't want to end the war, they want to fight it better....(Still, disruption within any enemy is a good thing.)
Day 485 of my 3 day war. Russia is invading Russia to free Russia from those who invaded Russia to free Russia from those who invaded Russia.
I remain a master strategist.
Follow my embassy in Argentina. They have the best coke and I need some.
@SovietEmbassyAR
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672496377815875586
Euromaidan Press cannot independently verify the claim.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1672497636996268032
We've seen how incompetent and slow to react are their efforts in Ukraine. If they don't have a plan in place to deal with this, it could be over before they react.
- Russia has just seen its effective army reduced by 25,000 men.
- It will probably need the same again just to hold back Wagner assuming the frontline troops don't wheel in behind them
- Rostov was the control and supply centre of the Russian army and is no longer functioning
- Russia runs a centralised command system so now the frontline has no-one to give orders and there will be supply issues
In the short term at least Ukraine just acquired a big advantage and needs to use it
Is he still arguing with Shoygu?
“Now, commercials. And then… commercials.”
Russian state TV is in chaos as anchors wait for info on producers who themselves need instructions from the Kremlin on how to cover this attempted coup. Today has been lots of ads & occasional, very brief MOD statements.
https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1672497184024203265
This is the beginning of very dark times in Russia, but then, unless Russia deals with its past, it will not be able to have any future anyway.
That's not impossible, given there seems to have been little or no fighting.
It's certainly a huge opportunity for Ukraine, but if Putin falls in 24hrs, do hostilities just carry on ? Bit early to tell.
I'm agreeing so far.
So even if the FSB don't make him have an unfortunate accident with a window, or a day trip to Salisbury, I can't see him lasting even in the event he wins.
But equally if the regime collapses it seems unlikely one of Putin's henchmen could take over.
What would the likely outcome be? Military dictatorship? Open control by the FSB?
Growing the economy will be difficult, sure. Tax rises will be toxic, definitely. But squeezing the public sector pay bill at the level of workers is a husk of a lemon with all the juice squeezed out.
Part of the problem is that austerity was more about allowing central government programmes to degrade, rather than cutting areas of activity. (Local government is different, they've had to cut pretty much everything that isn't required by law.) You can do that a bit for a while, but not this much for this long.
https://www.joxleywrites.jmoxley.co.uk/p/the-shit-state-tories
There are two options facing the government. One is to systematically stop doing certain things because it can't afford the staff any more. The other is for those things to begin falling over in a chaotic way as unfillable vacancies reach a critical mass. There is no third option.
The first will be politically grim, and I don't know what cuts you announce. Even I don't really want to stop Year 9 going to school. But the second is dishonest, lazy and will create worse problems for Sunak's successor.
LAB LEAK THEORY DEBUNKED - EVERYONE APOLOGISE!!!
I see on twitter that there were reports of some fighting at a couple of points on Wagner's journey to Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, so some poor suckers are following orders and fighting against Wagner.
But Putler appears to be coming out swinging. Bring on the popcorn.
You’re probably correct about his inability to rule, but in the short term, who knows .
The issue being raised relates to the school's understanding of its duties under the Equality Act. Not an imaginary cat. The Equality Act is here - https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2010/15/contents.
Russia isn’t entirely ruled by logic.
*The politicians won't dare put up taxes to any meaningful extent
*The politicians won't dare scrap gold plated universal pensioner benefits
*The politicians won't dare let property prices crater
*The politicians (and the utterly useless Bank of England along with them) are desperate to suppress the wages of the proles, but supremely relaxed about salary hyperinflation amongst very well-remunerated people of their own social class
And these self-imposed restrictions apply equally to Government and Opposition.
Basically, they're all equally committed to the maintenance of the current socio-economic system. Which means that the redistribution of our stagnant pool of wealth from poor people to rich people will continue unchecked, and the state, public services and living standards for the bulk of the population (especially those aged under about 50) will keep declining, with no prospect of any change at all.
Again, once economic growth ends, prosperity becomes a zero-sum game. The only way for one group in society to continue to experience the gains in living standards that it has come to expect is through seizing the wealth of others and impoverishing them. Thus rentiers and pensioners suck the blood of young families and low paid workers.
Most of the army is now neutral. that is collapse of the regime territory.
A somewhat surreal sight in Rostov as street cleaners continue on their Saturday morning duties.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672452358658306049
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672463016586014720
He might just be happy to take those newly-installed nukes off his hands - and then leave his regime to its fate. A democratic (and quickly inducted NATO member) on its border would be a huge win for Ukraine.
If so, that's pretty extraordinary.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672463016586014720
Getting seriously worried now about this shortage of turnips.
Whether Putin will be able to is another question - but the US Institute for the Study of War thinks he has wildly miscalculated. The next question is of course how far this undermines Russia's front against Ukraine. If Ukraine has a second attempt at a major counter-offensive poised to go, as reported, then there could hardly be better circumstances for it. It even gives Putin a sort of exit strategy, as you say - "we would have held on unless we'd been betrayed". Conversely, if Ukraine still doesn't get more than a few villages in the next month, it does suggest that they don't have the potential for a major breakthrough this year.
MOD claim
Rostov run by Wagner, Voronezh falling to Wagner, and Wagner on the way to Moscow
https://twitter.com/hashtag/StandWithUkraine?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1672505632325238784|twgr^b47d194f1152b3b6b0ed40e887f847353c40abc5|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/russia-ukraine-coup-wagner-kremlin-yevgeny-prigozhin/&src=hashtag_click
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1672505632325238784/photo/1
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672352361161924608?t=cOw0mfTp7sA2O7ZBAh2zrQ&s=19
That nature of the defences established by Russia in occupied territory are such that it might take a month or two to degrade the defences and the forces manning them to the point where a breakthrough is achievable, assuming that the Russian forces there stand their ground in the context of confusion and conflict in Russia.
We don't know anything yet about how the Prigozhin rebellion is affecting logistics or command and control.
Extraordinarily unlikely that this is staged.
https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB
“I gave a psychopath his own army of criminals and they broke the law & betrayed me. The dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed.”
“My war is both in Ukraine and now also in Russia. I told Alina it’s proof men can multitask.”
“The war the West started against us now means we have make Rostov look like Bakhmut.”
"Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president"
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672511322083270659
As Machiavelli advised, put not your trust in mercenaries.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1672508909590831104
Putin: “Whatever happens, it already feels like we’ve won lads. We’ve put Wagner on the back foot, and entertained the world…”
"I’m not worried about this coup. Given how long it took Wagner to get Bakhmut they’ll not get to Moscow before 2049."