A 25% swing from Leave puts Remain on 73% and a 46% lead over Leave – politicalbetting.com
Comments
-
Bigger question- who is left on the Conservative left? For all Sunak and Hunt are abused by proper right wingers, they are both conventional Thatcherites.pigeon said:
I'm not sure how much a residual member of the Tory left - one of those not already run out of town in 2019 - would actually have in common with an odious creature such as GBeebies host Jacob Rees-Mogg, but what do I know?Casino_Royale said:
Actually, I think they (we) have far more in common than they think. But inches of difference of opinion become miles of principled ocean, largely down to ego.pigeon said:
Labour also do internecine warfare, of course. Bits of the party have repeatedly broken off in the past because of it.Casino_Royale said:
Far too many Conservatives (not all, but enough for it to be a big problem) enjoy nothing more than ripping each other's throat out and pissing all the carcass to bumptious applause from their faction. In fact, they are never happier than when doing this. They even recognise they're doing this but believe the strife is nothing to do with them, because they are absolutely right, and it's the other faction that should concede to them to end it all.stodge said:
That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.HYUFD said:
Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.Dialup said:The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.
I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.
I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.
I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.
So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
So, that's exactly what I expect to happen.
It's just another miserable consequence of our clapped out electoral system, of course. The Conservative Party spans such a broad range of opinion that its two extremes have practically nothing in common bar the rejection of socialism.
Thought experiment. Somehow, a voice from God tells the Conservatives to tack back to the centre and calm down on Europe. Today. How do they even begin to fill a Cabinet? Labour's job post-Corbyn was a doddle by comparison.
And talking of tack...0 -
Is this the first example of someone banned not for a post, but a header?TheScreamingEagles said:Hey Siri, show me how to do clickbait headlines.
0 -
Some years back the Israelis destroyed a would be reactor site in Syria.glw said:
Electronic warfare is a decent bet as well, it's clear from the successful missile attack yesterday that Ukraine has new toys nobody told about.JosiasJessop said:
They're Ukrainian successes regardless, but I actually hope the Russians shot down their own aircraft, as some suppose...williamglenn said:
The abundance of video footage and the fact that they were over Russian territory makes these Ukrainian successes hard for Russia to play down.Nigelb said:There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.
https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.
The options are all very interesting: Ukrainian air-to-air (but long way from the front lines); Ukrainian SAMs (similar); Ukrainian covert teams with MANPADs (unlikely), or Russian SNAFU as they shot down their own planes. Possibly more as well.
Russia air defence systems are extensively networked. People think the USSR as all primitive, but some of the technical ideas were well ahead - the automated swarm behaviour of groups of P-700 Granit ship attack missile for example.
It was said that the Israelis had hacked the air defence network (Russian supplied) and turned off portions of the system. It was also said, that as a near sarcastic act, they turned the system back on when they left Syrian airspace.
A hack at the level, would probably allow you to fiddle with the IFF systems. Perhaps make the system show friendlies as enemies? Then you just watch as your opponent restages the Battle of Barking Creek...0 -
Congratulations to @MoonRabbit
I think he forecast this
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460703161139201?t=6jMIPgkWUHrNDt10B9l1zA&s=190 -
Despite Conservative gains in voting intention, Sunak’s personal approval is still declining.
46% disapprove, while 26% approve, leaving Sunak with a net approval of -19%. His net approval is down 1% compared to our last poll.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460707057647656
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460710434013193
Starmer’s approval also took a hit this week.
35% disapprove, while 30% approve. This leaves the Labour leader with a net approval of -5%, down 2% from a fortnight ago.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460713714073600
Our Best PM question stays still, with Starmer up by 1 percentage point from last fortnight.
Starmer leads Sunak by 3%. This figure has been relatively stable as of late, though Starmer has been making some marginal gains.
When it comes to the economy, Labour is the more trusted party.
Labour is favoured in each aspect of the economy we prompted, even leading on reducing the UK’s national debt.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460716855611394
Seems like a disaster poll for the Tories all told0 -
“He”?Big_G_NorthWales said:Congratulations to @MoonRabbit
I think he forecast this
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460703161139201?t=6jMIPgkWUHrNDt10B9l1zA&s=19
Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.0 -
So the owls in his avatar are real owls, that you find down a hole in the dark, not Sheffield Wednesday?TheScreamingEagles said:
He's from Chesterfield and a fan I believe.Tres said:
Peterborough??TheScreamingEagles said:
Thoughts and prayers for BigJohnOwls as his side lost to the scabs*Tres said:That was a great pen shoot-out in the National League play-offs
*I'm from South Yorkshire, all the Nottinghamshire teams get called scabs to this day round here, I'm firmly on the side of the NUM.0 -
We are not going to rejoin. The price will always be unacceptable.
I am ensuring I watch 0 minutes of it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
8pm - five minutes to go!Andy_JS said:When does Eurovision start?
0 -
Sorry @MoonRabbitIanB2 said:
“He”?Big_G_NorthWales said:Congratulations to @MoonRabbit
I think he forecast this
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460703161139201?t=6jMIPgkWUHrNDt10B9l1zA&s=19
Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.
Please accept my apology1 -
I agree but there is hardly enthusiasm for labourIanB2 said:
“He”?Big_G_NorthWales said:Congratulations to @MoonRabbit
I think he forecast this
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460703161139201?t=6jMIPgkWUHrNDt10B9l1zA&s=19
Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.
0 -
I was thinking about just that incident yesterday. There's very little in the public domain about such network warfare systems, it's one of those topics where you really can't get any detail at all.Malmesbury said:Some years back the Israelis destroyed a would be reactor site in Syria.
Russia air defence systems are extensively networked. People think the USSR as all primitive, but some of the technical ideas were well ahead - the automated swarm behaviour of groups of P-700 Granit ship attack missile for example.
It was said that the Israelis had hacked the air defence network (Russian supplied) and turned off portions of the system. It was also said, that as a near sarcastic act, they turned the system back on when they left Syrian airspace.
A hack at the level, would probably allow you to fiddle with the IFF systems. Perhaps make the system show friendlies as enemies? Then you just watch as your opponent restages the Battle of Barking Creek...0 -
No enthusiasm for Labour but Labour hasn't lead on the economy for over a decade.1
-
That is a superb performance by your team. Just imagine if swingback were included it would be single figures...oh wait it already is and it's still 14.Big_G_NorthWales said:Congratulations to @MoonRabbit
I think he forecast this
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460703161139201?t=6jMIPgkWUHrNDt10B9l1zA&s=190 -
As in hee hee heee, one of UKs emerging psephological wunderkids wuz right guessing the Opinium movement. Again.IanB2 said:
“He”?Big_G_NorthWales said:Congratulations to @MoonRabbit
I think he forecast this
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460703161139201?t=6jMIPgkWUHrNDt10B9l1zA&s=19
Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.
The last one clearly looked like the wonky sample needing correcting. They have corrected it and gained some. That’s because it’s swing back adjusted, finding a lot of Tory don’t know and their methodology to be consistent must add % on as expected swingback.
However, unfortunate I am calling it for poor Opinium, since they made this methodology change early last year, we have now come to think of 24 as like 1997, where usual swingback rules don’t apply, and extraordinary stay at home takes place instead.0 -
Graham Norton is actually hosting (with the three shouty women).0
-
The locals suggest that is at least a little less true than it once was.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agree but there is hardly enthusiasm for labourIanB2 said:
“He”?Big_G_NorthWales said:Congratulations to @MoonRabbit
I think he forecast this
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460703161139201?t=6jMIPgkWUHrNDt10B9l1zA&s=19
Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.0 -
I suspect some would think that going full Corbyn styling (if not in policy) would not work, but if they're going to lose anyway may as well make themselves feel better about things. Whereas the true Corbynite was much more optimistic about things (2017 was a victory, and all that).Dialup said:https://twitter.com/nicholastyrone/status/1657458827934007297
These people are dangerously deluded. How could they look at five years of Corbynism and go "yes let's copy that please?"0 -
I hope Ukraine win with a hilariously overpowered public vote again, so that hopefully there are some Eurovision 'purists' out there who get annoyed that it was not about the music.ping said:I’m on Ukraine & Croatia to win.
Croatia top 3/5/10.
Small stakes. I have a terrible betting record for EV, which I fully suspect will continue, tonight.0 -
Poe Poe Poe!!1
-
Shouty woman 3 was given the "Shame" bell when she left GOT....Sunil_Prasannan said:Graham Norton is actually hosting (with the three shouty women).
0 -
Shooting down that many of their own aircraft would be hugely impressive in a way.JosiasJessop said:
They're Ukrainian successes regardless, but I actually hope the Russians shot down their own aircraft, as some suppose...williamglenn said:
The abundance of video footage and the fact that they were over Russian territory makes these Ukrainian successes hard for Russia to play down.Nigelb said:There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.
https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.
The options are all very interesting: Ukrainian air-to-air (but long way from the front lines); Ukrainian SAMs (similar); Ukrainian covert teams with MANPADs (unlikely), or Russian SNAFU as they shot down their own planes. Possibly more as well.
Like that battle that was supposed to have taken place when an Austrian army defeated itself before the enemy Turks arrived.
0 -
Starting with Wifey's fav song.1
-
I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.1
-
This is terrible lol, so it will probably win0
-
The blonde looks OKTheScreamingEagles said:I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.
0 -
“new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.“HYUFD said:
Or if the economy recovers so does Sunak's chances of re election.stodge said:
Thus the dilemma for the Conservatives.HYUFD said:
Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.stodge said:
That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.HYUFD said:
Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.Dialup said:The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.
I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.
I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.
I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.
So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.
Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.
If you think your best hope of winning is improving the economy and you still lose, not only have you lost but you've given the incoming Labour Government a strong economy which it can use or abuse but from which it will undoubtedly derive shorter or longer term electoral benefit.
If the economy stagnates or weakens and you lose, Labour will be able to point the finger at you for years (much as some on here do with the Liam Byrne note from 2010) saying the Tories wrecked the economy and Labour had to try and put it right.
A case of Heads they win, Tails you lose ?
If the economy stagnates or weakens then once Sunak resigns the new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.
Remember as I said Labour swiftly had clear poll leads by late 2010. I am not saying the Tories would win the next election but they are certainly more likely to get poll leads than Hague was when the economy continued to boom post 1997
Think again. New governments get at least 2 or 3 years grace simply blaming everything on the previous government, before “when will you deliver” kicks in.1 -
Punishing yourself with karaoke ?TheScreamingEagles said:I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.
0 -
This didn’t have quite the same impact as Nick Palmer’s revelation, somehow. 😀TheScreamingEagles said:I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.
8 -
The only people who got punished were the ones who heard me karaoke.Nigelb said:
Punishing yourself with karaoke ?TheScreamingEagles said:I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.
0 -
Apparently it's bad news for Syrian refugees in Turkey whoever wins.DoubleCarpet said:
Not a thread, but I'll be following it and will aim to post useful links.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sadly not, I know next to nothing about Turkish politics.TimS said:
I Hope we get a Turkish election thread tomorrow. Most important political event of this year.Nigelb said:So much for free speech absolutism.
Looks like Erdogan demanded @elonmusk censor his political opposition a day ahead of the election and he immediately complied.
Musk is either the world’s most sanctimonious hypocrite, coward and fraud or actually wants to censor the opposition to help Erdogan. Or both.
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1657400686957547528
But an interesting test - Erdogan is authoritarian but hasn't secured political omnipotence, so while as an outsider he doesn't look inclined to accept a loss (even 'proper' democracies are not above that anymore), voulf he force the issue.
0 -
That's because you all know that I'm not exactly innocent.NeilVW said:
This didn’t have quite the same impact as Nick Palmer’s revelation, somehow. 😀TheScreamingEagles said:I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.
FYI
I really didn't hire them, I just like to show off that I know the plural of dominatrix is dominatrices.1 -
The beluga whale? 🫣Sunil_Prasannan said:
The blonde looks OKTheScreamingEagles said:I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.
0 -
Mum just shouted out her first "Rubbish!" of the night, directed at Portugal. I thought Mimicat was OK.0
-
Nice use of the plural form though.NeilVW said:
This didn’t have quite the same impact as Nick Palmer’s revelation, somehow. 😀TheScreamingEagles said:I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.
0 -
Sorry, I meant the Edgar Allen Poe blonde.MoonRabbit said:
The beluga whale? 🫣Sunil_Prasannan said:
The blonde looks OKTheScreamingEagles said:I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.
0 -
I don't think the record that whoever performs second won't win will be troubled today.0
-
Off-topic-ish (but I see the look of the Eurovision people is being talked about). I asked one of the newer AI image models to do Liz Truss with a few tweaks of 'pork markets' and 'the necklace' (for @Leon's sake). I am sorry for any therapy costs incurred... (please feel free to delete this, the powers that be. I was just... taken with it for some reason. Not very good reasons, I admit...)
2 -
I'm guessing this Swiss guy didn't enjoy being conscripted.2
-
-
FPT:
Just caught up - @kle4 your post has changed my view - on reflection I agree with you - thanks.kle4 said:
Many things are worth worrying about for where they could lead, but that doesn't mean we should overly worry at the first hint.maxh said:
But the need to display the flag that prominently does indicate an insecure need to define an ‘us’ and a ‘them’ that can be manipulated in dangerous ways.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, it's terribly evil when Mrs. Biggins hoists one in her garden.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Absolutely. Nationalism, like religion, is fine in moderation: it is often a force for good and provides people with a sense of belonging, shared values and comfort. But it can also be a force for terrible evil when it gets out of hand.kinabalu said:
It really isn't that. There's a place for our national flag. Big international sports events, for example, flagship (pun not meant) government buildings. But I don't want to see it as a common feature of life, always behind politicians when they speak, on hats and tee shirts and umbrellas, in municipal premises, in shops, people flying it in their houses and gardens, flags flags flags all over the place. That gives me the willies. I find it tacky at best and at worst rather sinister.Casino_Royale said:
It "lowers the tone".kinabalu said:
There's no 'patronising contempt' from me, it's just that I don't like to see the Union Jack all over the place. It lowers the tone.Theuniondivvie said:
Cheer up, flag shagging may become a protected characteristic.Casino_Royale said:
That's exactly what I keep warning of on here: he's saying what he needs to say to get in.kinabalu said:
Your march Left is heartening to see. I can't reassure you totally, since I don't know for sure, but my sense is Starmer is all about derisking the GE as far as he possibly can, and that once in power (assuming he does win) he'll prove a bit more radical than you think. So don't write him off comrade.pigeon said:
Yep, it looks very much like Labour are going to go into the next election on a platform - if you ignore their rhetoric and a few eye-catching but token policy flourishes in areas like green energy - of managing the existing state of affairs less incompetently than the Tories. They're going to go our of their way to change as little as possible.viewcode said:
Perhaps we owe @bigjohnowls an apology...Theuniondivvie said:I suppose one way to deal with the red Tory patter is to lean right into it.
Others say it's the usual Tory scare tactics relating to a Labour leader in opposition.
But, look at what his own side say - like your good self - and the evidence at how he behaved to his own base once he won the Labour leadership election.
You don't know what you'll get with SKS.
Jesus. It's the flag of your f-ing country.
The only possible explanation for this is intellectual snobbery: you think you're above having any form of group social identity (save that of your education and values) and look down contemptuously on those that do.
We all have this need, but it’s not always healthy.
One flag in the garden does not signify someone in imminent danger of nationalist manipulation. If anything, getting worried by the mere flying of a flag as if there is a major risk that it signifies such a thing seems counterproductive to me. It's not like the infamous Emily Thorberry house in terms of 'That's a bit excessive'. Most people don't fly, I don't, but I don't think most people would assume that level is something to worry about.
Unless it was an English flag. I know several people who say if they see an English flag they assume the person flying it is racist. Sadly it's reputation is pretty shot with some.0 -
So far these have all been terrible.
If Mae remembers how to sing she might get a top 10 place.0 -
Our troops are advancing in two directions in the suburbs of #Bakhmut. In the city itself, the situation is more complicated, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said.
Our defenders are destroying the enemy and have already taken many prisoners.
https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1657452636004556802
Some claimed combat footage around Bakhmut.
https://twitter.com/soeren_herbst/status/1657447881463193601
A lot seems to have happened today.1 -
Can you relink?Casino_Royale said:@NickPalmer thanks for the link to that Alistair Meeks article, which I've now read.
It's an extreme example but having reflected on it I think that scenario is scarily credible.0 -
It should be “who the ****”Sunil_Prasannan said:Poe Poe Poe!!
GF is watching it - and there is something to be said for a trashy pop night out - but I’m not in the mood. My Balls of Carthage concept dinner flopped. Might have stirred in too many figs and dates. I’m fearing being on the Tablets Of Moses by tomorrow morning.
I’m now putting cams on and curl up and watch a film or something.0 -
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/nearly-sorry-for-them-1e850d48e70cStillWaters said:
Can you relink?Casino_Royale said:@NickPalmer thanks for the link to that Alistair Meeks article, which I've now read.
It's an extreme example but having reflected on it I think that scenario is scarily credible.1 -
The picture is truly disturbing, but as a Norfolk MP at least it got the number of fingers right for a changeohnotnow said:Off-topic-ish (but I see the look of the Eurovision people is being talked about). I asked one of the newer AI image models to do Liz Truss with a few tweaks of 'pork markets' and 'the necklace' (for @Leon's sake). I am sorry for any therapy costs incurred... (please feel free to delete this, the powers that be. I was just... taken with it for some reason. Not very good reasons, I admit...)
1 -
AFU have successes in the Bakhmut direction -
Klishchievka, the following were destroyed:
▪️Deputy Commander of 2AK Colonel.
▪️Commander of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade Colonel.
▪️Chief of Staff of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade Colonel.
https://twitter.com/leshysforrest/status/1657444065539915776
0 -
Kier is more and more reminding me of a 1970s Tory, I have to admit.algarkirk said:
On one issue there is a need to take sides. Wilson, under pressure, avoided Viet Nam. Blair, under pressure, didn't avoid Iraq. I hope Sir K is broadly Wilsonian.Dialup said:Today we saw the real beginnings of "Starmerism" which is an ideology that sits somewhere between Blairism and Wilsonism.
You don't however get credit for the disasters you averted.0 -
That wasn't the case for Thatcher's first administration of 1979-83, Heath's administration of 1970-1974, Cameron's administration of 2010-15 or Wilson/Callaghan's administration of 1974-1979.MoonRabbit said:
“new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.“HYUFD said:
Or if the economy recovers so does Sunak's chances of re election.stodge said:
Thus the dilemma for the Conservatives.HYUFD said:
Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.stodge said:
That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.HYUFD said:
Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.Dialup said:The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.
I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.
I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.
I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did
The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.
So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.
Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.
Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.
If you think your best hope of winning is improving the economy and you still lose, not only have you lost but you've given the incoming Labour Government a strong economy which it can use or abuse but from which it will undoubtedly derive shorter or longer term electoral benefit.
If the economy stagnates or weakens and you lose, Labour will be able to point the finger at you for years (much as some on here do with the Liam Byrne note from 2010) saying the Tories wrecked the economy and Labour had to try and put it right.
A case of Heads they win, Tails you lose ?
If the economy stagnates or weakens then once Sunak resigns the new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.
Remember as I said Labour swiftly had clear poll leads by late 2010. I am not saying the Tories would win the next election but they are certainly more likely to get poll leads than Hague was when the economy continued to boom post 1997
Think again. New governments get at least 2 or 3 years grace simply blaming everything on the previous government, before “when will you deliver” kicks in.
The poor economic situation they all presided over saw the main opposition party take the lead in polls within a year of the new government entering office0 -
Triumph of pyrotechnics so far.
Songs are crud.0 -
“Seems like a disaster poll for the Tories all told”Dialup said:Despite Conservative gains in voting intention, Sunak’s personal approval is still declining.
46% disapprove, while 26% approve, leaving Sunak with a net approval of -19%. His net approval is down 1% compared to our last poll.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460707057647656
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460710434013193
Starmer’s approval also took a hit this week.
35% disapprove, while 30% approve. This leaves the Labour leader with a net approval of -5%, down 2% from a fortnight ago.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460713714073600
Our Best PM question stays still, with Starmer up by 1 percentage point from last fortnight.
Starmer leads Sunak by 3%. This figure has been relatively stable as of late, though Starmer has been making some marginal gains.
When it comes to the economy, Labour is the more trusted party.
Labour is favoured in each aspect of the economy we prompted, even leading on reducing the UK’s national debt.
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460716855611394
Seems like a disaster poll for the Tories all told
This graph though, I won’t ask you to explain, but with this firm Starmer’s approval had been relentlessly on the slide since last October, and still sliding despite everything else.
0 -
Nice pair of chops on her.ohnotnow said:Off-topic-ish (but I see the look of the Eurovision people is being talked about). I asked one of the newer AI image models to do Liz Truss with a few tweaks of 'pork markets' and 'the necklace' (for @Leon's sake). I am sorry for any therapy costs incurred... (please feel free to delete this, the powers that be. I was just... taken with it for some reason. Not very good reasons, I admit...)
2 -
There was a suggestion in the replies that it was an old fuel dump - very easy to geolocate and identify but not of much significanceNigelb said:Huge (judging by the explosions) Ukrainian ammo dump appears to have been destroyed today.
Early in the morning today, Russian kamikaze drones attacked Khmelnytskyy (Ukraine's west)
Reportedly, a Ukrainian ammunition dump was destroyed. At least 21 civilians have been injured
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1657443786564280322
1 -
If you'd sat through the Semi-finals (like I did) you'd know this already.Casino_Royale said:Triumph of pyrotechnics so far.
Songs are crud.
All the songs range from okay to poor. Some of the weakest somehow got through the semi-final (Croatia was terrible).
It's pure pop trash.
I liked Austria..... this French effort seems okay too.0 -
UK song has best "bop" characteristics, all down to Mae's singing now.0
-
Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog
Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...1 -
I know. So did I.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sorry, I meant the Edgar Allen Poe blonde.MoonRabbit said:
The beluga whale? 🫣Sunil_Prasannan said:
The blonde looks OKTheScreamingEagles said:I once hired a couple of dominatrices who dressed exactly like these Austrian singers.
0 -
Ce n'est pas mauvais!0
-
Sure, but I work long hours during the week and that would have been very difficult.TheValiant said:
If you'd sat through the Semi-finals (like I did) you'd know this already.Casino_Royale said:Triumph of pyrotechnics so far.
Songs are crud.
All the songs range from okay to poor. Some of the weakest somehow got through the semi-final (Croatia was terrible).
It's pure pop trash.
I liked Austria..... this French effort seems okay too.
Not sure I can be arsed staying to the end if this is the standard.
1 -
A quite exceptional analysis. Much missed on these pages.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/nearly-sorry-for-them-1e850d48e70cStillWaters said:
Can you relink?Casino_Royale said:@NickPalmer thanks for the link to that Alistair Meeks article, which I've now read.
It's an extreme example but having reflected on it I think that scenario is scarily credible.7 -
She will be saying that for probably every single entry.Sunil_Prasannan said:Mum just shouted out her first "Rubbish!" of the night, directed at Portugal. I thought Mimicat was OK.
0 -
Does "Break a broken heart" count as tautology?0
-
Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.Scott_xP said:Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog
Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.
I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.0 -
Poland the best so far.squareroot2 said:
She will be saying that for probably every single entry.Sunil_Prasannan said:Mum just shouted out her first "Rubbish!" of the night, directed at Portugal. I thought Mimicat was OK.
0 -
There's a kids Eurovision?0
-
Reminds me of Mini-pops, one of the original C4 shows, which unfortunately mostly had an audience of paedos.Casino_Royale said:There's a kids Eurovision?
0 -
YepCasino_Royale said:There's a kids Eurovision?
0 -
I thought the Spanish song was actually quite good.0
-
Isn't she opening new steak markets there?ohnotnow said:Off-topic-ish (but I see the look of the Eurovision people is being talked about). I asked one of the newer AI image models to do Liz Truss with a few tweaks of 'pork markets' and 'the necklace' (for @Leon's sake). I am sorry for any therapy costs incurred... (please feel free to delete this, the powers that be. I was just... taken with it for some reason. Not very good reasons, I admit...)
1 -
How do you deduce that, my dear Sherlock, from an unchanged vote share?Mexicanpete said:
The locals suggest that is at least a little less true than it once was.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I agree but there is hardly enthusiasm for labourIanB2 said:
“He”?Big_G_NorthWales said:Congratulations to @MoonRabbit
I think he forecast this
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1657460703161139201?t=6jMIPgkWUHrNDt10B9l1zA&s=19
Recent poll movements are all over the place. All that is clear is that most people want the Tories out.0 -
Loreen channelling "The Winner Takes It All"?0
-
This is the hot favourite.0
-
How is this favourite?
It's a She-Edward Scissorhands trapped in an IKEA four-poster showroom light-bed.2 -
Degrading. I can't think this can win.0
-
You don't have to be woke to think this is inappropriate in 2023.0
-
Before Boris was ousted the average Conservative voteshare was 30-35%. Under Truss the average Conservative voteshare was 20-25%, under Rishi it is now 25-30%.ping said:
Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.Scott_xP said:Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog
Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.
I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
So yes Tory MPs made a mistake removing Boris and more of them will lose their seats as a consequence, even if Rishi will still save more Tory MPs seats than Truss would have he still will likely see a worse defeat than Boris would have
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary0 -
I genuinely cannot see Johnson as the answer to, well anything.Scott_xP said:Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog
Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
Whereas I accept vast swathes of what we used to quaintly term the "working class" would return him to Downing Street in a heartbeat, even vaster swathes of one nation Conservatives hate the ground he walks on. So Johnson retains some otherwise lost seats in the RedWall whilst the BlueWallers in their masses turn red, yellow and green.2 -
My dislike of Boris is well known on these pages; and I'm not one of the 'recent recruits' to Borisphobia, either.Scott_xP said:Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog
Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
But Boris *was* undoubtedly an electoral asset. I don't think he is at the moment, and that's because of the way he lost power. Pinchergate will be forgotten; a crumb on the history of politics, but it was the beginning of his end. The coup de grâce was partygate. I've talked to a couple of people who've mentioned that they liked Boris, but partygate was bad.
*If* Boris could be absolved of all blame over partygate; *if* he could be made out to be a victim rather than a wrongdoer, then that would be a massive electoral boon to him and the party. But that won't happen (mainly because it isn't true). But it's what some people want.2 -
That’s a great read.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/nearly-sorry-for-them-1e850d48e70cStillWaters said:
Can you relink?Casino_Royale said:@NickPalmer thanks for the link to that Alistair Meeks article, which I've now read.
It's an extreme example but having reflected on it I think that scenario is scarily credible.
And I’d love the last bit - that anyone who was passionate about Brexit will forever be tainted, even within the Tories - to come true.
But if you wanted a TLDR from all of that, it would still be: ” It’s always possible for Labour to lose the election.”2 -
Err, no.HYUFD said:
Before Boris was ousted the average Conservative voteshare was 30-35%. Under Truss the average Conservative voteshare was 20-25%, under Rishi it is now 25-30%.ping said:
Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.Scott_xP said:Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog
Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.
I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
So yes Tory MPs made a mistake removing Boris and more of them will lose their seats as a consequence, even if Rishi will still save more Tory MPs seats than Truss would have he still will likely see a worse defeat than Boris would have
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary1 -
The Tories can win without the Red Wall, as they did in 2015. But they needed to wipe out the LDs to do it.Mexicanpete said:
I genuinely cannot see Johnson as the answer to, well anything.Scott_xP said:Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog
Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
Whereas I accept vast swathes of what we used to quaintly term the "working class" would return him to Downing Street in a heartbeat, even vaster swathes of one nation Conservatives hate the ground he walks on. So Johnson retains some otherwise lost seats in the RedWall whilst the BlueWallers in their masses turn red, yellow and green.1 -
Self declared President of Belarus, Oleksander Lukashenka is in hospital in Miensk.
The pillars of Putinism are clearly wobbling this weekend. If Russia attempts to seize Belarus as some kind of compensation for its failure in Ukraine, it is quite likely to spark an all-out rebellion.
Times suddenly got interesting again in Belarus after three years of crack downs and oppression.7 -
If Boris were fresh and had never been tested in the field, it might be true.IanB2 said:
Err, no.HYUFD said:
Before Boris was ousted the average Conservative voteshare was 30-35%. Under Truss the average Conservative voteshare was 20-25%, under Rishi it is now 25-30%.ping said:
Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.Scott_xP said:Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog
Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.
I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
So yes Tory MPs made a mistake removing Boris and more of them will lose their seats as a consequence, even if Rishi will still save more Tory MPs seats than Truss would have he still will likely see a worse defeat than Boris would have
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
Unfortunately, he has, and he's been found out.1 -
He did drink the tea0
-
Rada of the Belarus Democratic Republic, still the longest-serving government-in-exile (since 1919).Cicero said:Self declared President of Belarus, Oleksander Lukashenka is in hospital in Miensk.
The pillars of Putinism are clearly wobbling this weekend. If Russia attempts to seize Belarus as some kind of compensation for its failure in Ukraine, it is quite likely to spark an all-out rebellion.
Times suddenly got interesting again in Belarus after three years of crack downs and oppression.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rada_of_the_Belarusian_Democratic_Republic0 -
Let's hope Lukashenko is either assassinated or dies.1
-
Nice to see mithral chain mail getting an outing with Italy....2
-
I like Estonia.
She can sing and it's quite a nice song too.1 -
Looks like he's been shopping in the women's clothing of Next.MarqueeMark said:Nice to see mithral chain mail getting an outing with Italy....
0 -
Though the great man is betting E/W:Mexicanpete said:
A quite exceptional analysis. Much missed on these pages.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/nearly-sorry-for-them-1e850d48e70cStillWaters said:
Can you relink?Casino_Royale said:@NickPalmer thanks for the link to that Alistair Meeks article, which I've now read.
It's an extreme example but having reflected on it I think that scenario is scarily credible.
"It’s always possible for Labour to lose the election."
FWIW I guess that the election will have Labour about 5-10 percentage points ahead of Conservatives, with the result given these figures depending on the degree of tactical voting and, especially, Scotland.0 -
Estonian lady looks OK 0
-
No they didn'tHYUFD said:
Before Boris was ousted the average Conservative voteshare was 30-35%. Under Truss the average Conservative voteshare was 20-25%, under Rishi it is now 25-30%.ping said:
Not sure about “would” but “could” is correct, in my view.Scott_xP said:Compare and contrast Meeks with the CDO conference today
"It is likely that the Conservatives out of office will not be taken seriously by voters again until they have exorcised their Brexitmania from their system (and perhaps not even then). That is likely to take years and possibly decades."
OR
@implausibleblog
Dan Wootton, "Isn't the solution to winning the next election to return Boris Johnson to the leadership?"
Priti Patel, "He is an electoral asset.. People are saying, Bring Back Boris.. In my view Boris would win us the next election."
Conservative Democratic Organisation Q&A
Only one of them is right...
I think Tory MPs were idiots to get rid of him.
I don’t think MP’s will allow it to happen, though. Unless Sunak seriously screws up and Tory polling dives into the teens and stays there.
So yes Tory MPs made a mistake removing Boris and more of them will lose their seats as a consequence, even if Rishi will still save more Tory MPs seats than Truss would have he still will likely see a worse defeat than Boris would have
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary1 -
With all the publicity given to the Storm Shadow (including Americans said how effective they are) I wonder whether the Americans are sneaking in something even sexier under the cover.glw said:
Electronic warfare is a decent bet as well, it's clear from the successful missile attack yesterday that Ukraine has new toys nobody told about.JosiasJessop said:
They're Ukrainian successes regardless, but I actually hope the Russians shot down their own aircraft, as some suppose...williamglenn said:
The abundance of video footage and the fact that they were over Russian territory makes these Ukrainian successes hard for Russia to play down.Nigelb said:There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.
https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.
The options are all very interesting: Ukrainian air-to-air (but long way from the front lines); Ukrainian SAMs (similar); Ukrainian covert teams with MANPADs (unlikely), or Russian SNAFU as they shot down their own planes. Possibly more as well.
0 -
Cha! Cha! Cha!1
-
Jesus Christ.0
-
It's the day-glo Blackadder series 1 extra for Finland....
This will be huge.0 -
This must be a joke.0
-
I think Finland might win.1
-
Halfway 13 of 26 songs sung!0
