A 25% swing from Leave puts Remain on 73% and a 46% lead over Leave – politicalbetting.com

Stuartinromford said:

So in 2019, there was a 52:48 poll in favour of leaving Eurovision? (Please someone tell me I've got that wrong.)

I remember 2019 being bonkers, but I've kinda blotted out how bonkers it was.

Dialup said:

The railways are crap.

British Rail was also crap.

Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.

CatMan said:

This topic is boring. Can't we carry on complaining how crap privatized railways are?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tres said:

That was a great pen shoot-out in the National League play-offs

Thoughts and prayers for BigJohnOwls as his side lost to the scabs*

*I'm from South Yorkshire, all the Nottinghamshire teams get called scabs to this day round here, I'm firmly on the side of the NUM.

Jim_Miller said:

FPT: StillWaters - Thank you for the book recommendation. And, in return, I'll give you one: Michael Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never: Why enviromental alarmism hurts us all".
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/apocalypse-never-michael-shellenberger/1134858807?ean=9780063001695

rcs1000, and anyone else interested in the subject, can find much in there about California politics. (I haven't read Shellenberger's book on San Francisco.)

Dialup said:

The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

rcs1000 said:

I can confirm that Croatia is well worth an each way bet.

Dialup said:

The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

So much for free speech absolutism.

Looks like Erdogan demanded @elonmusk censor his political opposition a day ahead of the election and he immediately complied.

Musk is either the world’s most sanctimonious hypocrite, coward and fraud or actually wants to censor the opposition to help Erdogan. Or both.
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1657400686957547528

I Hope we get a Turkish election thread tomorrow. Most important political event of this year.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hey Siri, show me how to do clickbait headlines.

kinabalu said:

Eurovision: We're hosting, have a decent song, we're going last, we've ditched Liz Truss, yet there's 8/1 available for a top 10. I'm on in SIZE.

rcs1000 said:

I can confirm that Croatia is well worth an each way bet.

kinabalu said:

Eurovision: We're hosting, have a decent song, we're going last, we've ditched Liz Truss, yet there's 8/1 available for a top 10. I'm on in SIZE.

HYUFD said:

Dialup said:

The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.

If I were Rishi I would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million for all estates only implemented if the Tories are re elected to appeal to the Home Counties and Blue Wall and posher parts of London and make a real effort to control and reduce the boats across the channel to reduce losses to Labour in the redwall and Leave areas

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Dialup said:

The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did

That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.

Surprised the watermark on that video didn’t get someone banned.

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Dialup said:

The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did

That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.

Casino_Royale said:

Before I screw up my Eurovision betting again, can someone please explain to me the rules again?

I never bloody learn. Is it correct that:

(1) The lengthy waits for each country to declare in turn are just the judges scores, which are 50% only
(2) The public votes magically appear in a massive block right at the end

I can't remember them ever announcing the number of public votes, or how they correlate to points, and I always struggle with estimating those - it's a proportional share of a fixed total of overall points, right?

bigjohnowls said:

SKS - "We are on track, on a path towards power but there is still more work to be done and the toughest part lies ahead."

Plenty of lies ahead

pigeon said:

stodge said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.

If I were Rishi I would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million for all estates only implemented if the Tories are re elected to appeal to the Home Counties and Blue Wall and posher parts of London and make a real effort to control and reduce the boats across the channel to reduce losses to Labour in the redwall and Leave areas

If I were Rishi I'd be having strategy weekends all the way to the summer recess now, and baking that into government policy straight away and Conservative political strategy for the Autumn and beyond. Something seismic is needed to rally the vote for the next GE and administrative competence alone on the five pledges won't be enough.

I think the whole party could end up in serious trouble otherwise.

It's back to the point raised on the last thread - why should anyone vote Conservative next time (apart from those who already think Labour would be worse)?

I'll repost my effort from lunchtime on this topic, if I may. I was responding to a question the gist of which was 'what will it take for you to believe that the Tories' support will actually collapse?':


The Conservative Party merits being set on fire and thrown down a thousand foot mineshaft, immediately followed by a lengthy pour of quick setting cement. This does not mean it's going to happen. Even John Major in 1997 managed about 31% of the vote, and we're dealing with an older electorate and a grey porridge of a Labour Opposition this time around.

Besides, I know I keep coming back to this point ad nauseam, but it's only because I think it's very important: not nearly everyone is suffering from the current socio-economic car crash. There's a large cohort of Boomer homeowners - bought dirt cheap council houses under Thatcher, benefit from older style occupational pensions as well as the triple lock, altogether very comfortable - for whom the Conservatives have delivered in spades. Older Gen-Xers, who also managed to get on the property ladder when it was still fairly easy to do so, are coasting towards their own gold-plated retirements, and are looking forward to receiving both their triple locked pensions and enormous inheritances over the next 10-15 years, will also feel not wholly unsympathetic towards they who made all of this possible.

We also have to remember that the electoral system itself favours the two large parties, because most voters who passionately hate one of the main parties will vote negatively for the other, even if they think it is rubbish, because they view the alternative as even worse. There's a substantial number of Never Labour voters out there, and the polarising effects of Brexit and the Corbyn experiment will have increased their numbers.

We may still be getting polls coming out with outrageous shares like Lab 51, Con 24, but come a GE the likelihood of anything like that is surely remote in the extreme?

MarqueeMark said:

Lukashenko seems to be quite poorly.

For the sake of both Belarus and Ukraine, let's hope so.

TheScreamingEagles said:

TimS said:

Nigelb said:

So much for free speech absolutism.

Looks like Erdogan demanded @elonmusk censor his political opposition a day ahead of the election and he immediately complied.

Musk is either the world’s most sanctimonious hypocrite, coward and fraud or actually wants to censor the opposition to help Erdogan. Or both.
https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1657400686957547528

I Hope we get a Turkish election thread tomorrow. Most important political event of this year.

Sadly not, I know next to nothing about Turkish politics.

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Dialup said:

The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did

That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.

Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.

Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.

Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

Lukashenko seems to be quite poorly.

For the sake of both Belarus and Ukraine, let's hope so.

Taken ill after visitng Moscow for the parade...

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

Lukashenko seems to be quite poorly.

For the sake of both Belarus and Ukraine, let's hope so.

Taken ill after visitng Moscow for the parade...

DougSeal said:

pigeon said:

stodge said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

OGH says he "doesn't believe in the Labour double digit poll leads" - I presume he means he doesn't mean they will be maintained through to election day. They exist now in every poll.

18 months or so out from the next election, it's a brave individual who bets the farm or even a small holding on the next election outcome.

I don't know what's going to happen - I'm not sure the Conservatives can rely on economic improvement to say them, after all, the economy did very well from 1995-97 but it didn't do Major and Clarke much good.

As someone else commented, why should anyone vote Conservative again? The obvious answer is "because Labour would be worse" but that's a view that can be expressed every time and is meaningless primarily because we don't know what a re-elected Conservative Government would do in 2024 any more than we did in 1997.

The truth is there's nothing left - the paucity of ideas is such as to make a vacuum seem crowded. Unlike the Thatcher/Major Government when there was a real sense of accomplishment and transformation - the Britain of 97 was light years away from 79 - this time there is a sense of a lack of accomplishment, a lack of change, a lack of progress - apart from leaving the European Union, what has happened between 2010 and now?

I suppose one could argue Covid-19 was as much a break on Johnson's radicalism as 9/11 was to Blair's but that pre-supposes either had anything radical to offer.

Starmer's problem is he inherits that vacuum and has to make sense of it.

If I were Rishi I would raise the inheritance tax threshold to £1 million for all estates only implemented if the Tories are re elected to appeal to the Home Counties and Blue Wall and posher parts of London and make a real effort to control and reduce the boats across the channel to reduce losses to Labour in the redwall and Leave areas

If I were Rishi I'd be having strategy weekends all the way to the summer recess now, and baking that into government policy straight away and Conservative political strategy for the Autumn and beyond. Something seismic is needed to rally the vote for the next GE and administrative competence alone on the five pledges won't be enough.

I think the whole party could end up in serious trouble otherwise.

It's back to the point raised on the last thread - why should anyone vote Conservative next time (apart from those who already think Labour would be worse)?

I'll repost my effort from lunchtime on this topic, if I may. I was responding to a question the gist of which was 'what will it take for you to believe that the Tories' support will actually collapse?':


The Conservative Party merits being set on fire and thrown down a thousand foot mineshaft, immediately followed by a lengthy pour of quick setting cement. This does not mean it's going to happen. Even John Major in 1997 managed about 31% of the vote, and we're dealing with an older electorate and a grey porridge of a Labour Opposition this time around.

Besides, I know I keep coming back to this point ad nauseam, but it's only because I think it's very important: not nearly everyone is suffering from the current socio-economic car crash. There's a large cohort of Boomer homeowners - bought dirt cheap council houses under Thatcher, benefit from older style occupational pensions as well as the triple lock, altogether very comfortable - for whom the Conservatives have delivered in spades. Older Gen-Xers, who also managed to get on the property ladder when it was still fairly easy to do so, are coasting towards their own gold-plated retirements, and are looking forward to receiving both their triple locked pensions and enormous inheritances over the next 10-15 years, will also feel not wholly unsympathetic towards they who made all of this possible.

We also have to remember that the electoral system itself favours the two large parties, because most voters who passionately hate one of the main parties will vote negatively for the other, even if they think it is rubbish, because they view the alternative as even worse. There's a substantial number of Never Labour voters out there, and the polarising effects of Brexit and the Corbyn experiment will have increased their numbers.

We may still be getting polls coming out with outrageous shares like Lab 51, Con 24, but come a GE the likelihood of anything like that is surely remote in the extreme?

Does a 1974 DOB count as an older Gen X? If so, I need to find out what I did wrong. I’m going to be working until 2044.

Casino_Royale said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Dialup said:

The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did

That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.

Far too many Conservatives (not all, but enough for it to be a big problem) enjoy nothing more than ripping each other's throat out and pissing all the carcass to bumptious applause from their faction. In fact, they are never happier than when doing this. They even recognise they're doing this but believe the strife is nothing to do with them, because they are absolutely right, and it's the other faction that should concede to them to end it all.

So, that's exactly what I expect to happen.

pigeon said:

Casino_Royale said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Dialup said:

The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did

That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.

Far too many Conservatives (not all, but enough for it to be a big problem) enjoy nothing more than ripping each other's throat out and pissing all the carcass to bumptious applause from their faction. In fact, they are never happier than when doing this. They even recognise they're doing this but believe the strife is nothing to do with them, because they are absolutely right, and it's the other faction that should concede to them to end it all.

So, that's exactly what I expect to happen.

Labour also do internecine warfare, of course. Bits of the party have repeatedly broken off in the past because of it.

It's just another miserable consequence of our clapped out electoral system, of course. The Conservative Party spans such a broad range of opinion that its two extremes have practically nothing in common bar the rejection of socialism.

Casino_Royale said:

pigeon said:

Casino_Royale said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Dialup said:

The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did

That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.

Far too many Conservatives (not all, but enough for it to be a big problem) enjoy nothing more than ripping each other's throat out and pissing all the carcass to bumptious applause from their faction. In fact, they are never happier than when doing this. They even recognise they're doing this but believe the strife is nothing to do with them, because they are absolutely right, and it's the other faction that should concede to them to end it all.

So, that's exactly what I expect to happen.

Labour also do internecine warfare, of course. Bits of the party have repeatedly broken off in the past because of it.

It's just another miserable consequence of our clapped out electoral system, of course. The Conservative Party spans such a broad range of opinion that its two extremes have practically nothing in common bar the rejection of socialism.

Actually, I think they (we) have far more in common than they think. But inches of difference of opinion become miles of principled ocean, largely down to ego.

JosiasJessop said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

There seems to be something wrong with our bloody helicopters today.

https://twitter.com/DenesTorteli/status/1657407649686736896
This time another Mi-8 crashed near Volkustichi settlement, Bryansk region. This is the 5th one of the day.

The abundance of video footage and the fact that they were over Russian territory makes these Ukrainian successes hard for Russia to play down.

They're Ukrainian successes regardless, but I actually hope the Russians shot down their own aircraft, as some suppose...

The options are all very interesting: Ukrainian air-to-air (but long way from the front lines); Ukrainian SAMs (similar); Ukrainian covert teams with MANPADs (unlikely), or Russian SNAFU as they shot down their own planes. Possibly more as well.

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Dialup said:

The reality of 2019 is that Johnson won by nicking Corbyn's 2017 manifesto and he was up against a historically unpopular leader. Who to be totally open, I supported.

I don't think Johnson would have won a majority without Corbyn, I think the Tories have been going downhill very slowly since Cameron left and since Brexit. Where we are, I believe was always inevitable.

I think Labour will be in for a decade - but they must be more ambitious and be in power for a good amount of time. Let's hope this time they don't fall out as they have done before. There is no reason they cannot do 15 or 20 years in power if they really want to. The Tories will give them a free run for the first term as they seem intent on becoming nuttier than they already are.

Unless Starmer can get inflation down further, see average wages rise significantly and avoid tax rises on average earners and stop strikes I expect him to become unpopular very quickly, especially if he goes too Woke as well. Indeed provided the Tories don't go mad and pick say Priti Patel, Redwood or Braverman to succeed Rishi then a reasonably sane but dull Leader of the Opposition like Barclay or Mordaunt or Tugendhat could be ahead in the polls again within 6 months.

I expect the aftermath of the next election to be more 1974 or 2010 or 1979 than 1997, the government will not have a long honeymoon under a charismatic PM as Blair did

That's a shedload of wishful thinking, my friend.

The new Government can spend the first term blaming everything on the previous Government and your party will be too busy fighting over its own entrails to respond effectively.

So much will depend on the size of the next Conservative Parliamentary Party.

Not if inflation continues to rise, taxes go up, wages remain stagnant, strikes continue etc.

Voters can be brutal, if they don't feel the current government is doing much for them they will swiftly turn on it, no matter how much they disliked the previous one. See the late 1960s and 1970s. Even Ed Miliband also swiftly took some poll leads over Cameron despite the thrashing Brown got a few months earlier. As did Foot over Thatcher as early as 1980.

Blair was fortunate in 1997 inflation and unemployment were low and the economy and wages growing with few strikes and relatively low taxes which sustained his honeymoon.

Thus the dilemma for the Conservatives.

If you think your best hope of winning is improving the economy and you still lose, not only have you lost but you've given the incoming Labour Government a strong economy which it can use or abuse but from which it will undoubtedly derive shorter or longer term electoral benefit.

If the economy stagnates or weakens and you lose, Labour will be able to point the finger at you for years (much as some on here do with the Liam Byrne note from 2010) saying the Tories wrecked the economy and Labour had to try and put it right.

A case of Heads they win, Tails you lose ?

Or if the economy recovers so does Sunak's chances of re election.

If the economy stagnates or weakens then once Sunak resigns the new Tory leader of the Opposition will swiftly be able to poor that bucket of shit all over new PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves' head and will do so.

Remember as I said Labour swiftly had clear poll leads by late 2010. I am not saying the Tories would win the next election but they are certainly more likely to get poll leads than Hague was when the economy continued to boom post 1997

Of course but my central point remains - if improving the economy is seen as Sunak's best hope of success but Labour still win, Labour will then inherit a growing economy for which a) they will undoubtedly take credit and b) against which the Conservatives will be impotent in response.

This was the position from 1997-99 when Brown continued the spending plans and policies he inherited from Ken Clarke which both maintained economic growth and spiked the Conservative guns completely. The economy continued to prosper and Labour took the benefit.

The one main difference - I doubt Reeves will sign up as avidly as Brown to Jeremy Hunt's spending plan.

It was an industrial dispute - the tanker driver strike - which allowed Hague to momentarily grab a lead in the polls for all the good it did him in 2001 when he returned a result basically as bad as John Major's four years earlier.

Andy_JS said:

When does Eurovision start?