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The local elections – the broad trends so far – politicalbetting.com

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  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    Chris said:

    He says the Russian General Staff ordered that Wagner should be kept short of ammunition despite ample supplies, according to the subtitles.
    Wagner’s statement was released several hours after Prigozhin himself published an explicit video rant he filmed on May 4, in which he stands beside the bodies of dozens of Wagnerites and directly dresses down Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov.
    “Those are soldiers we lost today. Their blood is still fresh,” Prigozhin rages. “And now listen to me, fuckers. They were someone’s sons or fathers. You, fuckers, who don’t give us ammo, will burn in hell. We have a lack of shells … Shoigu, Gerasimov, where the fuck are our shells? Look at them, bitches.”

    https://www.politico.eu/article/massive-split-russia-military-forces-wagner-vow-quit-bakhmut-ukraine-war-yevgeny-prigozhin/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    edited May 2023
    AlistairM said:

    Wagner apparently will be withdrawing from Bakhmut on 10th May unless they get ammo. If they do then all those thousands of lives wasted and just given up again. Ukraine was right to hold out there.

    Evgeniy Prigozhin declares in a video that he will be ordering the withdrawal of Wagner mercenaries from Bakhmut due to an acute shortage of ammunition allegedly ordered by the Russian General Staff. He says Wagner will stay in the city until 9 May to avoid shame on this day. He…
    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1654412610069037057

    Daily Kos had a write up on possible axes for the Ukranian offensive. These include Northern Lughansk, and South to the Azov coast, but also the intriguing one of Donetsk itself.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/1/2166839/-Ukraine-Update-Bakhmut-could-be-Russia-s-glass-jaw

    Deliberate fog of war IMO, but an interesting thought.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Roger said:

    Did you read it carefully? Though enjoyable in parts I can barely remember more contradictory posts from anyone since the early days of SeanT
    :D Fair.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505

    What is interesting so far is the Greens - over half of the LDs (so far) yet with a fraction of the seats going into the contest.

    Also, one word of caution for Labour in the West Midlands - the results so far are not great. The only seat where there has been meaningful change in Labour taking Con seats is in Tamworth, which is Chris Pincher's seat so might be down to that factor.
    Saw HY ramping Redditch as a Tory success this morning, saying Labour took Redditch in the Blair years and haven't under SKS.

    It was disingenuous. Redditch is by thirds and Labour needed to win 8/10 this year to take the council, having won 1/10 in 2019.

    So, Labour won 6/10 and fell short of the gain. Con had a 12-7 starting advantage in seats that were not contested this year from years in which they had a slight aggregate NEV lead.

    What does this tell us, then? That Labour led for longer and more consistently unde Blair in 94-96 than SKS has done in 21-23. We know that.

    If all the Tories have to brag about is that they retain by thirds councils by virtue of having done sort of OK in 2021 and 2022, then that is paper thin.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    :D Fair.
    Go on then, play the psephological ball not the rabbit, and explain to us why there is such a gap between the NEV and PNS this morning.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,636

    :D Yes, my sense was that Skirtgate ended up being a big net positive for her, despite the headlines. She certainly has many 'fans' from both side of the political spectrum on PB – although @MoonRabbit will tell you she needs to work on her hair...
    Really? If I were asked 'list all the things which are attractive about Angela Rayner, in order', hair would be #1 on my list.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    :D Yes, my sense was that Skirtgate ended up being a big net positive for her, despite the headlines. She certainly has many 'fans' from both side of the political spectrum on PB – although @MoonRabbit will tell you she needs to work on her hair...
    It’s the fringe. Pass me some scissors and a comb.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    Has there been any change in the projected vote share since last night?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Roger said:

    I'd just be content to have a government that would be more likely to imprison Braverman for hate speech than appoint her Home Secretary
    I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Cookie said:

    Really? If I were asked 'list all the things which are attractive about Angela Rayner, in order', hair would be #1 on my list.
    I like her hair but Miss Rabbit is not a fan as I understand it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    Pro_Rata said:

    Saw HY ramping Redditch as a Tory success this morning, saying Labour took Redditch in the Blair years and haven't under SKS.

    It was disingenuous. Redditch is by thirds and Labour needed to win 8/10 this year to take the council, having won 1/10 in 2019.

    So, Labour won 6/10 and fell short of the gain. Con had a 12-7 starting advantage in seats that were not contested this year from years in which they had a slight aggregate NEV lead.

    What does this tell us, then? That Labour led for longer and more consistently unde Blair in 94-96 than SKS has done in 21-23. We know that.

    If all the Tories have to brag about is that they retain by thirds councils by virtue of having done sort of OK in 2021 and 2022, then that is paper thin.

    I note big Lab gains in Hartlepool, which is also by thirds. A very symbolic revival for Labour.

    +6 out of 12 seats contested, and now 18/36 of the council. @roger will be delighted, I am sure!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,432
    Cookie said:

    Really? If I were asked 'list all the things which are attractive about Angela Rayner, in order', hair would be #1 on my list.
    I like her dress sense. Distinctive and individual, and well chosen.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213
    .

    A

    Given that current Patriot is designed* to intercept Theatre Ballistic Missiles, not surprising. All the Kh-47 is, is a ballistic missile fired from a plane. The whole "Hypersonic" thing is marketing hype.

    *When Patriot was being designed, the US Congress and Senate was adamant that its capability should be limited, so that the Russians couldn't claim it was an ABM system. So they limited the burnout velocity of the rockets in the contract. The problem was the engineers kept improving the performance through development. So Ted Kennedy would get all upset. And the engineers had to find ways to reduce the performance.
    Still impressive, if true.
    Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,056
    Pro_Rata said:

    Saw HY ramping Redditch as a Tory success this morning, saying Labour took Redditch in the Blair years and haven't under SKS.

    It was disingenuous. Redditch is by thirds and Labour needed to win 8/10 this year to take the council, having won 1/10 in 2019.

    So, Labour won 6/10 and fell short of the gain. Con had a 12-7 starting advantage in seats that were not contested this year from years in which they had a slight aggregate NEV lead.

    What does this tell us, then? That Labour led for longer and more consistently unde Blair in 94-96 than SKS has done in 21-23. We know that.

    If all the Tories have to brag about is that they retain by thirds councils by virtue of having done sort of OK in 2021 and 2022, then that is paper thin.

    There's potentially an interesting bit of narrative here.

    We know that 2021 was peak Boris/trough Keir. In councils electing by thirds, those seats gave the Conservatives a decent cushion; a lot of councils needed a miracle to change hands this year (see Redditch, Thurrock, there must be others.)

    But some of those 2021 elections were actually delayed from 2020 and the plague, and return to their normal cycle next time. So the baseline for the 2024 locals will be high for the Conservatives, low for Labour. Not ideal for the blue team when there's a General Election expected six months later.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Foxy said:

    Bregret is the double whammy for the Tories. Failure in the Red Wall and continuing resentment in the Blue Wall.
    Yes.

    How or when does blaming Tories for everything because of Brexit actually end?

    If anything “ Bregret double whammy - Failure in the Red Wall and continuing resentment in the Blue Wall.” Seems to be gathering steam, not abating
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    A rare positive result for the Tories, in the Bolsover constituency.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Clowne West (Bolsover) council election result:

    CON: 54.8% (+30.5)
    LAB: 45.2% (+12.5)

    Conservative GAIN from Independent."
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262
    IanB2 said:

    Go live in a caravan on Canvey Island, then you'll be safe and secure in the last redoubt
    Having been, many years ago, a Liberal council candidate on Canvey I can agree with that. Canvey is nowadays run by the Canvey Island Independence Party.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,212

    I think she’s in with a great chance of becoming the next Tory leader.
    Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…

    Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,056

    "Vote Conservative - the party of Clowne!"
    Nah, they got rid of him last summer.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505

    There's potentially an interesting bit of narrative here.

    We know that 2021 was peak Boris/trough Keir. In councils electing by thirds, those seats gave the Conservatives a decent cushion; a lot of councils needed a miracle to change hands this year (see Redditch, Thurrock, there must be others.)

    But some of those 2021 elections were actually delayed from 2020 and the plague, and return to their normal cycle next time. So the baseline for the 2024 locals will be high for the Conservatives, low for Labour. Not ideal for the blue team when there's a General Election expected six months later.
    And 2021 is also the baseline for 2025, perhaps a few short months after a GE. If there's any kind of honeymoon that could easily be a somewhat painful night for the Tories as well.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    There's potentially an interesting bit of narrative here.

    We know that 2021 was peak Boris/trough Keir. In councils electing by thirds, those seats gave the Conservatives a decent cushion; a lot of councils needed a miracle to change hands this year (see Redditch, Thurrock, there must be others.)

    But some of those 2021 elections were actually delayed from 2020 and the plague, and return to their normal cycle next time. So the baseline for the 2024 locals will be high for the Conservatives, low for Labour. Not ideal for the blue team when there's a General Election expected six months later.
    But also of course, over time, over decades, seats do trend in different directions, some trend away from you, others you never thought of come into play. Labour really with a shot at Aldershot, anyone? So pointing to seats from a quarter of a century ago like that, might be a teeny bit disingenuous.

    Or just utterly desperate to find a chink of sunlight.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…

    Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
    I agree with you. Badenoch shorter odds than Braverman.

    But as Professor C would say, we can’t possibly know for certain.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,522
    So one entertaining result is this one on Cotswold Council:

    https://meetings.cotswold.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=384&RPID=713440
    LibDem paper candidate takes the Tetbury and Upton Ward from the Tories

    Only problem is that he is also a sitting councillor in the Ordsall ward on Salford council...

    https://sccdemocracy.salford.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=358
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    Somewhat surprisingly, it's looking as if the Conservatives will hold East Cambridgeshire, which was a top Lib Dem target.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Andy_JS said:

    A rare positive result for the Tories, in the Bolsover constituency.

    "Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    Clowne West (Bolsover) council election result:

    CON: 54.8% (+30.5)
    LAB: 45.2% (+12.5)

    Conservative GAIN from Independent."

    Yes Andy. But the actual Bolsover Story is how many extra seats Labour have won there, how the council now looks, and it has a sitting Tory up for election in a little over 12 months. Labour went up by eleven, Tories down by 11, the council is 31 Lab, 3 Con.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited May 2023
    Jacob Rees-Mogg's constituency and that's not even a bad turnout for a local.

    A 45% swing Cons to LibDem!

    The man is one of those who exemplifies everything that stinks in the tory party.

    Britain Elects
    @BritainElects
    ·
    1h
    Publow and Whitchurch (Bath and North East Somerset) council election result:

    LDEM: 61.9% (+55.0)
    CON: 24.1% (-35.6)
    LAB: 8.1% (-7.3)
    GRN: 6.0% (-12.2)

    Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

    Turnout: 36.9% (+1.8)

    p.s. actually there was a Cons defection involved so maybe not
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911

    Agreed, and into the wilderness they go…

    Badenoch is the one to go for if they are going for someone “of the right” (and I suspect they will).
    Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now

    He has to do historically well just to get to a majority

    So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution

    And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t

    I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    edited May 2023
    In a way, it's incredible how we've had so much commentary on the election results when 75% of votes haven't even been counted yet!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    Foxy said:

    Daily Kos had a write up on possible axes for the Ukranian offensive. These include Northern Lughansk, and South to the Azov coast, but also the intriguing one of Donetsk itself.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/1/2166839/-Ukraine-Update-Bakhmut-could-be-Russia-s-glass-jaw

    Deliberate fog of war IMO, but an interesting thought.
    That discussion emphasises the danger to Russia if the Wagner mercenaries in Bakhmut failed to stand up to a Ukrainian counter-attack. If the Wagner mercenaries are calling the Russian command "fuckers" and proposing to withdraw ...?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    Dialup said:

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈13pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 44 (+2)
    🌳Con 31 (=)
    🔶LD 9 (=)
    ➡️Reform 5 (-2)
    🎗️SNP 4 (+1)
    🌍Gre 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (-1)

    2,241 UK adults, 28-30 April

    (chg from 21-23 April)

    This is a Savanta poll.

    https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1654400949970956288
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,559
    Leon said:

    Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now

    He has to do historically well just to get to a majority

    So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution

    And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t

    I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
    Assuming they don't implode after losing. The country needs Sir Keir to succeed - a 2028 election between a failed Starmer and someone like Badenoch would be disastrous.
  • Andy_JS said:

    In a way, it's incredible how we've had so much commentary on the election results when 75% of votes haven't even been counted yet!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results

    The proportion of seats defended by the Tories that they are losing seems to be steadily rising, it's over a third now.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited May 2023
    Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said Labour's local elections performance was "not the kind of performance Blair was achieving" before the party's landslide general election victory in 1997.

    Read more ⤵️
    https://telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/05/local-election-results-2023-live-updates-uk-councils-latest/



  • Andy_JS said:

    In a way, it's incredible how we've had so much commentary on the election results when 75% of votes haven't even been counted yet!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/results

    Why is it incredible?

    I mean things can get better or worse for each party as counting continues, and a party can buck the trend due to local issues here and there. But the trend is not fundamentally going to change, and many of the results are interesting in themselves (e.g. the Labour's win in Plymouth is pretty clearly relevant to target seats).

    We also analyse by-elections extensively when that's about 30-40k votes, and opinion polls when it's 1000 people.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262
    Sean_F said:


    Somewhat surprisingly, it's looking as if the Conservatives will hold East Cambridgeshire, which was a top Lib Dem target.

    I understand there’s a row about parking in Cambridge which has become very political.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,199
    John Curtice looks wraithlike. Eat some cheese John.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    nico679 said:

    Sunak’s spin is desperate .

    The later results are likely to be even worse as more whole councils seats are up for grabs .

    Yes, when it's this bad there's not much point in spinning. Just say its bad, difficult times, but youre back in track and wait and see.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Ha ha. One of those candidates who was standing in two places 160 miles apart (presumably to do his bit as a paper candidate) has accidentally been elected in both. Good luck with attending council meetings...

    https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1654425829403766788?s=20
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,505
    Good grief. I missed that Godley had gone marginal and indeed returned a Con last year. That's going to take me a moment to fathom....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051
    Chris said:

    He says the Russian General Staff ordered that Wagner should be kept short of ammunition despite ample supplies, according to the subtitles.
    It's pretty bonkers either that that is true, or it isn't and this is some bizarre double bluff.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,105
    Leon said:

    Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now

    He has to do historically well just to get to a majority

    So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution

    And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t

    I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
    There's clearly less enthusiasm for Starmers Labour Party than there was for Blair's but significantly mote to get rid of Sunak's Tory government than there was to get rid of Major's. So it'll be interesting to see how the cards fall
  • Sean_F said:


    Somewhat surprisingly, it's looking as if the Conservatives will hold East Cambridgeshire, which was a top Lib Dem target.

    I think that the Lib Dem organiser there has moved to Wales, so that might be contributing factor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,051

    The proportion of seats defended by the Tories that they are losing seems to be steadily rising, it's over a third now.
    More whole councils and districts. It's going to be a bloodbath.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Maryam Moshiri deserves a mention in dispatches for her College Green performance in a hailstorm on BBC website.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    edited May 2023
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Still impressive, if true.
    Hypersonic isn't just hype, but rather descriptive, since the KH-47 is said to be a Mach 10+ missile. Detecting and intercepting a relatively short range missile that fast will be a pretty hard task.
    In ABM world, Mach 10 is slow. ICBM warheads are going Mach 20 in the upper atmosphere.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/Peacekeeper-missile-testing.jpg

    Used to be a big deal, but many high end SAM systems, around the world can deal with Mach 10. Phased array radars and compute power have made the bid difference there.

    Mach 20 is much harder - exotic fusing issuing for example.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Sean_F said:

    A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.

    That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.

    Labour spinners please explain.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Leon said:

    Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now

    He has to do historically well just to get to a majority

    So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution

    And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t

    I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
    Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s - nor Sunak’s Tories quite as bad as Major’s (give them time - ed.) and you’re right - the road to a Labour majority is very steep, though the Scots may yet lend a helping hand….I think key to this will be how the Tories respond to the poor council election results - and whether those responsible - the Johnson/Truss factions - seek to blame the guy left holding the parcel when the music stopped. If there’s more Tory infighting we’ve got Major’s Tories on our hands.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,157
    Roger said:

    Did you read it carefully? Though enjoyable in parts I can barely remember more contradictory posts from anyone since the early days of SeanT
    I don't think I've ever got to the end of an MR post. Undiluted gibberish.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.

    Labour spinners please explain.
    OTOH, both South Hams and Welwyn Hatfield have been lost to NOC.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s - nor Sunak’s Tories quite as bad as Major’s (give them time - ed.) and you’re right - the road to a Labour majority is very steep, though the Scots may yet lend a helping hand….I think key to this will be how the Tories respond to the poor council election results - and whether those responsible - the Johnson/Truss factions - seek to blame the guy left holding the parcel when the music stopped. If there’s more Tory infighting we’ve got Major’s Tories on our hands.
    What you're both ignoring is that the situation in Britain is FAR FAR worse in 2023/4 than it was in 1996/7.

    The economy was doing great in 1997. Now it's shit and we all know it.

    The tories will get hammered because they have been at the helm and some of it is their fault.

    p.s. incredibly patronising remark about Scotland by the way

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,470
    kle4 said:

    It's pretty bonkers either that that is true, or it isn't and this is some bizarre double bluff.
    Someone on ARRSE pointed out the similarities between Wagner and the Italian mercenaries.

    Who were sometimes sabotaged by their *employers* to reduce the danger of a successful mercenary general becoming political….

    The other possibility is that shell shortages are meaning supplies going only to the Army.

    Could well be both - Wagner is setup to fail as a buffer for the Ukrainian offensive, protect the regular army (both casualties and reputation) and Putin.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    I'd vote Labour before I voted Green.
    I would not vote before voting for either of them
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.

    Labour spinners please explain.
    West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.

    It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited May 2023
    Sean_F said:

    A solid win for the Conservatives in Walsall, with 13 seats to 7 for Labour. No gains or losses.

    I owe an apology to anyone who put money on the Conservatives losing their majority there, as I suggested here that the very short odds on them retaining a majority seemed to be a bit too short and there was value there. With no change in seat numbers there clearly wasn't. Labour has been underperforming in Walsall for decades and it's continuing.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited May 2023

    That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.

    Labour spinners please explain.
    You’re always going to get the odd surprise result . The Tories are set to lose over 1,000 seats . The real meltdown in their seats will gather pace this afternoon.

    I said a few days ago that the Lib Dems will do very well in the Blue Wall and I expect some incredible results later .
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    I owe an apology to anyone who put money on the Conservatives losing their majority there, as I suggested here that the very short odds on them retaining a majority seemed to be a bit too short and there was value there. With no change in seat numbers there clearly wasn't. Labour has been underperforming in Walsall for decades and it's continuing.
    Solihull looks good for the Conservatives as well. The urban West Midlands seems quite strong for them.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249
    nico679 said:

    You’re always going to get the odd surprise result . The Tories are set to lose over 1,000 seats . The real meltdown in their seats will gather pace this afternoon.

    I said a few days ago that the Lib Dems will do very well in the Blue Wall and I expect some incredible results later .
    There will be some incredible results for the Lib Dems and some piss poor results.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    malcolmg said:

    I would not vote before voting for either of them
    I don't vote before voting every time.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    Off topic

    Oh dear, I have just looked at the weather forecast for tomorrow. It looks like Diana's tears will rain on Charles's parade.

    I am hoping fervently for torrential rain over all of London for many many hours Saturday.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    That’s another bad one for Labour, like Dudley.

    Labour spinners please explain.
    Walsall is a bad Labour result, Dudley was a good one. You're I think making the mistake of ignoring the 2/3rds of seats that weren't contested.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    Heathener said:

    West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.

    It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
    A lot of people live in the West Midlands. You can't just dismiss the results as not important.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,241
    Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664

    Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said Labour's local elections performance was "not the kind of performance Blair was achieving" before the party's landslide general election victory in 1997.

    Read more ⤵️
    https://telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/05/local-election-results-2023-live-updates-uk-councils-latest/



    Two good things possible from the results so far: No chance of anti Tory complacency; decent chance of Lab needing LD support after GE 2024.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,262
    malcolmg said:

    I am hoping fervently for torrential rain over all of London for many many hours Saturday.
    It rained for his Mum’s coronation; people still lined the route. I was selling programmes in Regent St. Sold out.
    I wouldn’t do it now! Couldn’t anyway; housebound.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Walsall is a bad Labour result, Dudley was a good one. You're I think making the mistake of ignoring the 2/3rds of seats that weren't contested.
    She's been told this numerous times now, but the combination of vodka and sleeplessness has affected her memory
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,483
    Not exactly a positive list for the tories so far...


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,910
    O/T

    "Police Scotland is planning to introduce a new clean-shaven policy for frontline officers, according to correspondence seen by the BBC.

    It means hundreds of officers will have to shave off their beards and moustaches by the end of the month.

    Four are understood to be taking legal action in relation to the policy.

    Police Scotland said it was necessary so officers and staff could wear protective FFP3 masks which require users to be clean-shaven.

    The policy, which also covers civilian staff in frontline roles, has been approved by the chief constable and is due to be introduced on 29 May."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65482560
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Heathener said:

    West Midlands is the last part of the UK to feel the wave.

    It's not rocket science and I'm not really sure why you're bleating on about it.
    Results for Labour in the rest of the West Midlands region have been pretty good so far in the context of the GE. Walsall is the only one that deserves to be called bad. I expect Wolverhampton to be relatively poor because of local issues - the state of the City centre.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213

    In ABM world, Mach 10 is slow. ICBM warheads are going Mach 20 in the upper atmosphere.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/Peacekeeper-missile-testing.jpg

    Used to be a big deal, but many high end SAM systems, around the world can deal with Mach 10. Phased array radars and compute power have made the bid difference there.

    Mach 20 is much harder - exotic fusing issuing for example.
    Ballistic is an easier problem than air launched, though, for detection, calculation of trajectory for intercept, and time available for those tasks.
    Modern radars are certainly up to the task, but what versions of the missiles does Ukraine have for their Patriot system(s) ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213
    Dura_Ace said:

    I don't think I've ever got to the end of an MR post. Undiluted gibberish.
    How do you know it's undiluted, if you never finished one ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.

    I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911
    Heathener said:

    What you're both ignoring is that the situation in Britain is FAR FAR worse in 2023/4 than it was in 1996/7.

    The economy was doing great in 1997. Now it's shit and we all know it.

    The tories will get hammered because they have been at the helm and some of it is their fault.

    p.s. incredibly patronising remark about Scotland by the way

    The economy was “doing great in 1997” after 18 years of uninterrupted Tory government
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    I owe an apology to anyone who put money on the Conservatives losing their majority there, as I suggested here that the very short odds on them retaining a majority seemed to be a bit too short and there was value there. With no change in seat numbers there clearly wasn't. Labour has been underperforming in Walsall for decades and it's continuing.
    There was a discussion on here a few days ago about the how the culture and history of the West Midlands in particular is more distinct from the M62 belt and North East than many (down south, but in the north too) assume. There are demographic parallels, but Walsall is not Wythenshawe, nor Dudley Doncaster. The Conservatives, in their current incarnation, scratch an in itch there - whereas you feel the vote was somewhat 'lent' in the other traditionally-Labour areas outside the WMs that went blue.

    As with the LDs in Hull, I don't doubt there's a 'good hardworking councillors replacing ineffective dinosaurs' effect too.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,546
    Leon said:

    The economy was “doing great in 1997” after 18 years of uninterrupted Tory government
    Aren’t you confirming Heathener’s point?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,213

    I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
    It's certainly better than 30mph.
    There are plenty of 20mph areas where a 25mph limit would make more sense, but it's hardly a hill to die on.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    First three wards declared in Southampton (all out due to new boundaries). Banister & Polygon and Bargate easy Labour wins as expected, Lib Dems take all three 3 seats comfortably in Bassett which is traditionally very safe Conservative. There's a high turnout in Portswood which is a big Green target.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    nico679 said:

    The Tories are set to lose over 1,000 seats . The real meltdown in their seats will gather pace this afternoon.

    Sounds unpleasant.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,004

    Absolutely no joy here in West Oxfordshire for the Conservatives' campaign which was based around opposition to 20mph limits and the pedestrianisation of Witney High Street. Labour have held on in Witney and the LibDems are absolutely piling up votes in the Oxford hinterland.

    Which party were the ones who stopped ol' Jezza Clarkson's restaurant expanding from ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911
    maxh said:

    Aren’t you confirming Heathener’s point?
    That would be a first

    More importantly “Only You” by Yazoo is an absolutely perfect pop song. Poignant and moving and simple and 3 minutes long

    I am now listening to

    https://music.apple.com/gb/album/y-tú-qué-has-hecho/1467829048?i=1467829191

    Which is almost as good
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Nigelb said:

    It's certainly better than 30mph.
    There are plenty of 20mph areas where a 25mph limit would make more sense, but it's hardly a hill to die on.
    Agreed, although 20mph limit means lots of people will do 22-23mph. And it makes no meaningful difference to how quickly you arrive – that in town is dictated by traffic and luck with the lights sequencing rather than 20mph or 30mph limits.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    edited May 2023
    Remarkable comments on Sky News from a financial expert when asked about why UK bank shares were not under pressure in the way that bank shares are in the US. Before you start to feel smug...........

    His point was that UK banks are now more akin to building societies since the bulk of their lending is on domestic mortgages (I guess we knew that). What was more disturbing was his claim that these were basically risk-free assets since you had things like the mortgage guarantee scheme and implicit acceptance that the government won't allow house prices to fall. The taxpayer will be on the hook. So if you wonder why we have a load of expensive houses and a lack of dynamic companies in the UK economy there you go!

    I cannot understand why we see this problem as so insoluble. If earnings rise by 5% a year and house prices are stagnant the ratio of earnings to prices comes down quite quickly.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,338
    Chris said:

    Wagner’s statement was released several hours after Prigozhin himself published an explicit video rant he filmed on May 4, in which he stands beside the bodies of dozens of Wagnerites and directly dresses down Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov.
    “Those are soldiers we lost today. Their blood is still fresh,” Prigozhin rages. “And now listen to me, fuckers. They were someone’s sons or fathers. You, fuckers, who don’t give us ammo, will burn in hell. We have a lack of shells … Shoigu, Gerasimov, where the fuck are our shells? Look at them, bitches.”

    https://www.politico.eu/article/massive-split
    -russia-military-forces-wagner-vow-quit-bakhmut-ukraine-war-yevgeny-prigozhin/
    He’s just blame shifting
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,751
    Leon said:

    Not at all. Starmer is clearly going to win in 2024. But it is far from clear he is going to get a 1997 style landslide - indeed that would be borderline miraculous given the incline he faces now

    He has to do historically well just to get to a majority

    So let’s say he gets a small maj -20-50 seats. He then has to face an economy in all sorts of continuing shit (like much of the world) and probably roiled by the early years of the AI Revolution

    And remember that Starmer will then own the huge migration influx. He can’t blame it on the Tories. He either stops migrants or he doesn’t

    I can see him failing badly in his first term. He’s not inspiring or charismatic enough to charm his way out of a poor performance. So then the Tories could be straight back in to power in 2028-9
    1979, 1997, 2010.
    If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while.
    History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    It wasn't my argument. It was an observation that many who bleat on about the outrageous situation of utilities issuing dividends are often the same economically inactive folk who laze around while sitting on massive pensions. Not that hard to follow really is it Einstein? I guess may apply to you?

    And on that note I will wish you adieu as I would like to do some work and have already spent far too much time on here. Fun though it is. See you all soon

    Yeah , hopefully not too soon, bored to tears with your mince.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,249

    Results for Labour in the rest of the West Midlands region have been pretty good so far in the context of the GE. Walsall is the only one that deserves to be called bad. I expect Wolverhampton to be relatively poor because of local issues - the state of the City centre.
    I don't know what the issue is in Solihull, but the Conservatives are hammering the Greens.

    A big difference from the mid 90's is that the Conservatives were completely wiped out in urban England by 1997 (apart from four London boroughs). Even after today, the Conservatives will still have quite a big councillor base there.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    Chris said:

    He says the Russian General Staff ordered that Wagner should be kept short of ammunition despite ample supplies, according to the subtitles.
    Just they are getting hammered and so needs a good excuse to run away.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,641

    I just don't get the opposition to 20mph in towns. I have a fast SUV but eventually you get used to pootling about at 20mph. And the evidence is clear – hit a child at 20mph and she likely survives. Not so much at 30mph. I think people instinctively know it's a good idea. Seems a moronic hill for the Tories to die on.
    Ignoring the politics, and indeed the humanity, it does seem to me that children and even some adults have recently become cavalier about wandering into the road.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,911
    DavidL said:

    1979, 1997, 2010.
    If you lose power in this country, prepare to be in opposition for a while.
    History suggests that the Tories might be back in the mid to late 2030s. Their leader then is probably not in Parliament yet.
    No. Britain is back in the 60s and 70s (sadly without the music to go with) when power regularly switched between sides as both proved unable to tackle intractable problems - until Thatcher
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,556
    IT'S OK!

    swearing allegiance to the king is "an invitation, not a command".

    Stand easy, troops.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,241
    Pulpstar said:

    Which party were the ones who stopped ol' Jezza Clarkson's restaurant expanding from ?
    Current LibDem/Labour/Green coalition, though I'm not sure that the initial decision wasn't taken under the previous Conservative administration - I've not followed it that closely.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Chris said:

    Sounds unpleasant.
    Good.

    The Conservative party needs to rediscover conservatism rather than the populist rabble rousing drivel it currently propagates. Time in the political wilderness is badly needed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Sean_F said:

    I don't know what the issue is in Solihull, but the Conservatives are hammering the Greens.

    A big difference from the mid 90's is that the Conservatives were completely wiped out in urban England by 1997 (apart from four London boroughs). Even after today, the Conservatives will still have quite a big councillor base there.
    There's a big "considerably richer than youw" Tory tradition in Greater Birmingham. It might provide some temporary comfort for them but will be largely lost amid the shellacking they are getting nationwide.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    edited May 2023

    Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s - nor Sunak’s Tories quite as bad as Major’s (give them time - ed.) and you’re right - the road to a Labour majority is very steep, though the Scots may yet lend a helping hand….I think key to this will be how the Tories respond to the poor council election results - and whether those responsible - the Johnson/Truss factions - seek to blame the guy left holding the parcel when the music stopped. If there’s more Tory infighting we’ve got Major’s Tories on our hands.
    I agree that 'Starmer’s Labour is clearly not as strong as Blair’s'. I think Sunak's Tories are pretty much as bad as Major's but maybe I'm biased.

    Where the Tories do have an issue imo is: what have they achieved for their 13/14 years in power?

    Major's Tories could point to the radical changes of Thatcher era and a clear improvement in living standards and in the economic standing of the country. All Sunak can point to is (an increasingly unpopular) Brexit. Everything else has stagnated or gone backwards (and half the country think Brexit was a backward step).
    That is why they should, and will I hope, be kicked out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,751
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    "Police Scotland is planning to introduce a new clean-shaven policy for frontline officers, according to correspondence seen by the BBC.

    It means hundreds of officers will have to shave off their beards and moustaches by the end of the month.

    Four are understood to be taking legal action in relation to the policy.

    Police Scotland said it was necessary so officers and staff could wear protective FFP3 masks which require users to be clean-shaven.

    The policy, which also covers civilian staff in frontline roles, has been approved by the chief constable and is due to be introduced on 29 May."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65482560

    Yep, it’s the tashes that does it. Get rid of them and we will suddenly have a police force worthy of the name, if not the money. Who could doubt it?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,338

    So one entertaining result is this one on Cotswold Council:

    https://meetings.cotswold.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=384&RPID=713440
    LibDem paper candidate takes the Tetbury and Upton Ward from the Tories

    Only problem is that he is also a sitting councillor in the Ordsall ward on Salford council...

    https://sccdemocracy.salford.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=358

    Is that against the rules or just logistically challenging?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Ghedebrav said:

    There was a discussion on here a few days ago about the how the culture and history of the West Midlands in particular is more distinct from the M62 belt and North East than many (down south, but in the north too) assume. There are demographic parallels, but Walsall is not Wythenshawe, nor Dudley Doncaster. The Conservatives, in their current incarnation, scratch an in itch there - whereas you feel the vote was somewhat 'lent' in the other traditionally-Labour areas outside the WMs that went blue.

    As with the LDs in Hull, I don't doubt there's a 'good hardworking councillors replacing ineffective dinosaurs' effect too.
    You appear to implicitly accept the apparent paradigm that the result in Dudley is apparently "bad". Please explain why a result across the council of Lab 13(+1), Con 12(-1), Others 0 is "bad" in a local authority where all 4 parliamentary seats are now held by the Conservatives, none of which would fall in the GE unless the swing was more than 14%. For Labour to be winning more local government seats than the Conservatives in the borough strikes me as being pretty good.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922

    I like her hair but Miss Rabbit is not a fan as I understand it
    I am with the Rabbit
This discussion has been closed.