Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
How's your confident call that the Tories would be winning seats from the Lib Dems panning out at this early stage, out of interest?
Also, the Lib Dems winning twice as many seats as the Tories in a Westminster seat the Tories hold now by a fair majority is not quite the zinger you think it is.
Absolutely no surprises to see a Tory shellacking today.
Hopeless, aimless leadership which stands for nothing appeals to no-one shocker.
Tories need to find a new leader: one who believes in something, and isn't obsessed with financial products and gimmicks like help to buy, furlough etc.
Go for growth. Cut taxes. Believe in freedom, and Britain. Build some goddamn homes.
Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.
Your suggested remedy sounds a lot like Trussism... I don't suppose any of us needs reminding how that turned out, but I'd be delighted if the tories gave it another go.
In the quiet moments of today, just imagine how much worse it would have been for the Tories with PM Truss still in Downing Street, still waging her war with Mr Market....
Electoral results would have been the least of our concerns …
...calling in to the polling station as we wheeled our barrowload of cash to the bakery might have helped turnout though.
Mr. Pioneers, if they did ditch Sunak and re-install Boris Johnson then I might well end up voting Labour. I definitely wouldn't be voting Conservative.
Even if Sunak wins no guarantee they won't switch horses to a Johnson/Truss or similar post election. Vote Rishi Get Boris.....
I know it doesn't quite work like this but if the Conservatives lose the same proportion of MPs as they have currently lost councillors then at the next General Election they will be left with 230 MPS.
Might not be a bad shout for a punt actually.
And with 20 ish seats in Scotland Labour's current proportion of gains would see them at around 360 MPs.
A period of silence from you would be welcome.
We are all tired of your hyberbolic bullshit and you seem to have absolutely no shame in totally changing your tune on here this morning as the results come in.
What you should have done is admitted you got it wrong. But you don't have the integrity to do that it seems.
On the contrary, @Heathener is right and it is the Tory reckoning predicted.
As the 2019 Local elections occurred in the year of Brexit paralysis, with the LDs pushing "Bollocks to Brexit", I did wonder if we may have seen high tide. It seems though that even more of Remania is moving our way.
No, I don't think so. There's nothing in these results to imply that the Conservatives will do worse than in 1997, which is what she was predicting for a long time.
It depends on what you mean by worse. I think a 200 seat Labour majority unlikely too, but in terms of seat gains, it is possible that 146 gains will be beaten, particularly if the SNP meltdown continues.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
Worth pointing out, the "the over 1000 losses May had in 2019" was so bad May had to resign. The baseline for yesterday's election was that result, which Sunak will make even worse.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems. back then.
The electorate want the Tories out, badly, but are not as enamoured by Starmer as they were by Blair.
That's the difference.
Suggests a small Labour majority to me rather than a landslide.
In 97 the UK was a confident country on the up, economically and culturally - Blair’s message of optimistic change and progression couldn’t have found more fertile territory.
We’re a way off that now. Depressed, divided and uncertain. I don’t really get the parallels we here often try to draw. It’ll be GE2024, not a rerun of 97 or 92 or whatever.
Yes, and that is a real challenge for any government. Economic and social optimism is at its lowest since the late Seventies, and no North Sea Oil bonanza to fund a solution.
We are the new Argentina, only with fewer football trophies.
Starmer's challenge is to actually turn some of these places around. Deliver actual levelling up projects. And investment is available - an ocean of public cash spent on Teesside, its just that it's all
The last thing decaying dumps need is yet more public cash. 60-80% of their income is often government as it is. Those that are salvageable need a culture of enterprise, not yet more subsidy in no-hope industries and pointless infrastructure, and those that aren't need their people to move elsewhere where the opportunities are, rather than waiting on the dole for jobs to come to them.
We've spent a century, and an ocean of public cash, trying to bribe post-industrial towns to grow, and, guess what, the towns that were falling apart then are still falling apart.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
Worth pointing out, the "the over 1000 losses May had in 2019" was so bad May had to resign. The baseline for yesterday's election was that result, which Sunak will make even worse.
May resigned because she had lost control of the party rather than because of the unpopularity of the party.
Whereas Sunak has control of the party but the party is much less popular than it was in 2019.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
Worth pointing out, the "the over 1000 losses May had in 2019" was so bad May had to resign. The baseline for yesterday's election was that result, which Sunak will make even worse.
The significant difference between 2019 and today is that in 2019 Labour also lost seats and ended up on 28% alongside the Tories. Today, Labour are winning seats and look to be ahead on vote share. That is far more dangerous for the Tories.
I'm dreading the result in St Albans City and District. The Yellow Peril already run the area and now they are intent on putting the Tories on the endangered list. The local Tory MP is doing the chicken run so Harpenden looks like joining St Albans as a Lib Dem parliamentary seat.
I may have to consider exile to avoid the dreaded Yellow Peril. Even Windsor is now no go area !!!!
Have you considered Hartlepool?. Should be safe from the Lib Dems there.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
How's your confident call that the Tories would be winning seats from the Lib Dems panning out at this early stage, out of interest?
Also, the Lib Dems winning twice as many seats as the Tories in a Westminster seat the Tories hold now by a fair majority is not quite the zinger you think it is.
Yes and less than half of councils have declared. North Norfolk was a LD held council where the Tories have made significant gains from the LDs. I always said Tory losses to the LDs in councils the Tories held would be offset by some Tory gains from the LDs in LD controlled councils like North Norfolk.
Likely. Though status quo ante is not a result for decaying hellholes like Middlesbrough - they need rescuing. The Tories promised these red wall rust belt towns the moon on a stick. Brexit and the Oven Ready Deal would see their lives improve, put a bit more money in their pockets and see pride come back into their communities.
And then the reverse has happened. So understandably ever larger numbers of people want the Tories out. They aren't stupid, they don't like being lied to. But then again Labour who had presided over some of these places since the Danelaw had let them go to ruin beforehand. "Its all the Tories fault, vote Labour" is no longer going to work.
Starmer's challenge is to actually turn some of these places around. Deliver actual levelling up projects. And investment is available - an ocean of public cash spent on Teesside, its just that it's all being handed over to a small number of the right people and not the town. Boro was refused tens of millions because the council wanted the money to be accountable and the mayor said it could only go to his no scrutiny cash in brown envelope operation...
But can it be done, even if you have a pile of cash freshly harvested from the magic money tree? That sort of post-industrial area has been in decline economically for my entire life (and not just in the UK), and no government of any stripe seems to have had the recipe for turning them around.
I see the Conservative did well in Grimsby, Peterborough, Scunthorpe and Thurrock.
How the world changes.
I wonder how well the results correlate to housing affordability.
Thurrock was pretty bad for the Conservatives- the batch of seats up this year went from C7L4 to C4L9. Conservative control there rests on the seats they won in other years of the cycle.
It could be argued that four seats is far more than they deserve, having basically bankrupted the district, but that's another matter.
Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.
Yes I totally agree.
One reason why I think they're going to fare even worse at the GE (and said so yesterday) is that Sunak is fading. He has literally nothing.
During the GE campaign he will be found wanting. He not only doesn't like being put under pressure with awkward questions, he also has a fair bit of murkiness in his locker. Either way, he is empty. A manager, but devoid of political charisma.
Again, I'm not saying Starmer is brilliant but the bar is a low one to beat.
His big mistake was not removing Braverman. Sunak had every chance to remove the NASTY PARTY tag which Johnson Truss Rees Mogg Patel and Dorries had left him with and he chose not to. Instead he made the monster in chief his home secretary who declared war on refugees
I'm confused (leave it!). Tories on here seem to not actually like the party, or the people in charge. Who do you actually want in charge?
Thatcher, Cameron, and Osborne.
I reflected this morning that all the work that Cameron and Osborne did to shed the Tories of their nasty party image, look modern and be trusted enough to govern has been systematically thrown away since 2019.
Right now the Tories look nasty, out of touch and incompetent. It's a bad cocktail.
Cameron did well at hiding the "nastiness" away. Where it did pop up, it was sidelined as the extreme wing of the Eurosceptics. The 2010-2015 cabinet also had to be seen to be "nice" to keep the coalition together. After the referendum and especially after GE2017 the nastiness which was always there got more confident and unfettered.
Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.
Yes I totally agree.
One reason why I think they're going to fare even worse at the GE (and said so yesterday) is that Sunak is fading. He has literally nothing.
During the GE campaign he will be found wanting. He not only doesn't like being put under pressure with awkward questions, he also has a fair bit of murkiness in his locker. Either way, he is empty. A manager, but devoid of political charisma.
Again, I'm not saying Starmer is brilliant but the bar is a low one to beat.
His big mistake was not removing Braverman. Sunak had every chance to remove the NASTY PARTY tag which Johnson Truss Rees Mogg Patel and Dorries had left him with and he chose not to. Instead he made the monster in chief his home secretary who declared war on refugees
It's actually worse than that, as she was reappointed having been sacked for a fairly serious breach of the law.
Even an OFSTED inspector would have got the chop for what she did. And that's saying something given how unsafe most of them seem to be around children.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
The tell will be what happens in the rest of the Blue and Red walls today. So far we have seen incursions against you by whichever party is best placed to defeat you. Labour wins against you in Middlesbrough, Stoke, Medway have to put the pulse racing a little, no?
But its not all about Labour. The other parties have conspired against you - look at Worcester where had people just voted Labour in seats they couldn't win you would likely have clung on in a minority. But they voted *against* you and that's a drop from power to third place. In Worcester!
It was always a funny old world where the Conservatives controlled places like Middlesbrough and Stoke. Thatcher could only dream of such things.
These are just signs of a return to a more normal (post Brexit) politics?
Likely. Though status quo ante is not a result for decaying hellholes like Middlesbrough - they need rescuing. The Tories promised these red wall rust belt towns the moon on a stick. Brexit and the Oven Ready Deal would see their lives improve, put a bit more money in their pockets and see pride come back into their communities.
And then the reverse has happened. So understandably ever larger numbers of people want the Tories out. They aren't stupid, they don't like being lied to. But then again Labour who had presided over some of these places since the Danelaw had let them go to ruin beforehand. "Its all the Tories fault, vote Labour" is no longer going to work.
Starmer's challenge is to actually turn some of these places around. Deliver actual levelling up projects. And investment is available - an ocean of public cash spent on Teesside, its just that it's all being handed over to a small number of the right people and not the town. Boro was refused tens of millions because the council wanted the money to be accountable and the mayor said it could only go to his no scrutiny cash in brown envelope operation...
"The reverse has happened" - because the money got spent on two once in a generation/century events: Covid furlough and the Ukraine War spike in energy requiring support to bill payers.
Without them, I reckon a lot of levelling up would have happened. But that would not have been without political consequence. There are plenty in the blue wall who resent money being sent "up north".
Building "some goddam homes" is a manifesto commitment, not something government can do before the next election.
Looking back, it's probably something government should have started during the pandemic (rather than, say, Eat out to help out) in order to boost the economy.
The old saw about the best time to plant a tree springs to mind. Even if the government won't see results before the election, they can certainly start: plans, proposals, laws, changes to regulations. If they do absolutely nothing in this area and then put something in the manifesto then they clearly aren't serious about it, because that's blowing 12 months they could have been using to get started with what they need to do.
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
I'm dreading the result in St Albans City and District. The Yellow Peril already run the area and now they are intent on putting the Tories on the endangered list. The local Tory MP is doing the chicken run so Harpenden looks like joining St Albans as a Lib Dem parliamentary seat.
I may have to consider exile to avoid the dreaded Yellow Peril. Even Windsor is now no go area !!!!
Have you considered Hartlepool?. Should be safe from the Lib Dems there.
Yes, the best way to avoid the Lib Dems is to move to somewhere with few graduates and cheap housing
Morning all. I'm about to dive in and crunch a few models (quite a chore these days) but first a quick look at what has happened to the Lab Maj price. It's shortened by 20 pts. So QED that Labour are beating expectations.
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
Until the 1960s it was standard practice in most areas to pour untreated sewage into rivers. That is, there was *never* any effort to treat it. The Tyne, for example, was so polluted Newcastle City Council couldn't hold meetings because of the smell. The Severn was worse.
That does not mean we should be happy with the current situation.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
How's your confident call that the Tories would be winning seats from the Lib Dems panning out at this early stage, out of interest?
Also, the Lib Dems winning twice as many seats as the Tories in a Westminster seat the Tories hold now by a fair majority is not quite the zinger you think it is.
Yes and less than half of councils have declared. North Norfolk was a LD held council where the Tories have made significant gains from the LDs. I always said Tory losses to the LDs in councils the Tories held would be offset by some Tory gains from the LDs in LD controlled councils like North Norfolk.
North Norfolk had a LD MP from 2001 to 2019
So far, it's been trivial gains in the handful of Councils where the Tories start from a base of next to nothing, versus significant losses in the areas which are blue. As was pointed out to you that is most areas in this year of the cycle, notwithstanding losses in 2019, as we're looking at a lot of relatively rural and suburban district councils in England.
In fairness, you put your neck on the line with the call. But, as your head rolls around in the basket, it's probably time to admit the call was wrong.
I see the Conservative did well in Grimsby, Peterborough, Scunthorpe and Thurrock.
How the world changes.
I wonder how well the results correlate to housing affordability.
Probably more to do with house building because more supply -> more affordability.
Interestingly around here it's the new housing estates where the Tories do well.
My theory is that where new housing is seen as an improvement on what is already there then it is popular but when it is viewed as 'shitboxes' in 'pretty villages' then its opposed.
That's just plain dumb. If people are switching en masse to Labour and the LDs why would a swing to the right bring them back?
Never mind that Sunak is on the Tory right. Seen his immigration policy?
It was expected to be pretty bad for the party and that looks to be holding true. Nothing has really changed - they continue to cling on to the hope that they start off far enough ahead that they can cling in a GE.
I'm dreading the result in St Albans City and District. The Yellow Peril already run the area and now they are intent on putting the Tories on the endangered list. The local Tory MP is doing the chicken run so Harpenden looks like joining St Albans as a Lib Dem parliamentary seat.
I may have to consider exile to avoid the dreaded Yellow Peril. Even Windsor is now no go area !!!!
Have you considered Hartlepool?. Should be safe from the Lib Dems there.
Yes, the best way to avoid the Lib Dems is to move to somewhere with few graduates and cheap housing
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
How's your confident call that the Tories would be winning seats from the Lib Dems panning out at this early stage, out of interest?
Also, the Lib Dems winning twice as many seats as the Tories in a Westminster seat the Tories hold now by a fair majority is not quite the zinger you think it is.
Hyufd/SirN
There is a specific problem with proposed Council Tax increases in North Norfolk.
Tactical voting is much easier in a general election than a local one. By the time the next one takes place, there will be a lot of places where people can go to find out who the best-placed anti-Tory candidate is.
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
Until the 1960s it was standard practice in most areas to pour untreated sewage into rivers. That is, there was *never* any effort to treat it. The Tyne, for example, was so polluted Newcastle City Council couldn't hold meetings because of the smell. The Severn was worse.
That does not mean we should be happy with the current situation.
I'm dreading the result in St Albans City and District. The Yellow Peril already run the area and now they are intent on putting the Tories on the endangered list. The local Tory MP is doing the chicken run so Harpenden looks like joining St Albans as a Lib Dem parliamentary seat.
I may have to consider exile to avoid the dreaded Yellow Peril. Even Windsor is now no go area !!!!
Have you considered Hartlepool?. Should be safe from the Lib Dems there.
Yes, the best way to avoid the Lib Dems is to move to somewhere with few graduates and cheap housing
Like Hull?
Incorrect. Hull is home to one of England's two great universities.
That's just plain dumb. If people are switching en masse to Labour and the LDs why would a swing to the right bring them back?
Never mind that Sunak is on the Tory right. Seen his immigration policy?
It was expected to be pretty bad for the party and that looks to be holding true. Nothing has really changed - they continue to cling on to the hope that they start off far enough ahead that they can cling in a GE.
So what can Sunak do?
He can't bury the past he was part of. He can't do change. He can't do down to Earth. He is struggling to recover on the competence front, but there is too much damage.
He could try to do compassionate conservatism, but would need to ditch Braverman and do a 180 on some key policies.
As predicted a bad night for the conservatives and inevitable following the Johnson/Truss debacle and the cost of living crisis
Sunak remains their best hope and if he is reading the room then he has 18 months to reset our relationship with the EU and continue to make progress with the economy
Those siren voices for Johnson and Truss need to understand the wrong person is taking the can for their period in office
Sunak was a key part of the Johnson administration. He is not the change we need.
I kind of like Sunak but not his choices. Williamson, Zahawi, Raab, Braverman all either dim or toxic. Dowden as DPM, seriously?
If he really wanted to reach out to the Blue Wall voters they are losing he should be working hard to get Rory the ex Tory and some of the others back into the party.
He's trying to personally project 'sensible middle of the road chap' image whilst still, despite the fulminations of the Borisites, being pretty hard right in his politics and allies, with a few exceptions. Trying to claw back some centrist types without upsetting the chuntering base.
It might be better to go all in as a competent Truss/Boris tribute act or a desperate pivot to the centre to try to block LD recovery even at the cost of losing some on the right. But it's too late to change direction now.
The idea they might seek to change leader again or just radically rework their targeting is just sad at this point - they're too tired try that now, with a year and a bit left.
Tactical voting is much easier in a general election than a local one. By the time the next one takes place, there will be a lot of places where people can go to find out who the best-placed anti-Tory candidate is.
The unfortunate thing, if you're anti Tory, is that those many places will probably have different answers for quite a few seats (see e.g. the remain tactical vote websites)
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
The tell will be what happens in the rest of the Blue and Red walls today. So far we have seen incursions against you by whichever party is best placed to defeat you. Labour wins against you in Middlesbrough, Stoke, Medway have to put the pulse racing a little, no?
But its not all about Labour. The other parties have conspired against you - look at Worcester where had people just voted Labour in seats they couldn't win you would likely have clung on in a minority. But they voted *against* you and that's a drop from power to third place. In Worcester!
It was always a funny old world where the Conservatives controlled places like Middlesbrough and Stoke. Thatcher could only dream of such things.
These are just signs of a return to a more normal (post Brexit) politics?
Likely. Though status quo ante is not a result for decaying hellholes like Middlesbrough - they need rescuing. The Tories promised these red wall rust belt towns the moon on a stick. Brexit and the Oven Ready Deal would see their lives improve, put a bit more money in their pockets and see pride come back into their communities.
And then the reverse has happened. So understandably ever larger numbers of people want the Tories out. They aren't stupid, they don't like being lied to. But then again Labour who had presided over some of these places since the Danelaw had let them go to ruin beforehand. "Its all the Tories fault, vote Labour" is no longer going to work.
Starmer's challenge is to actually turn some of these places around. Deliver actual levelling up projects. And investment is available - an ocean of public cash spent on Teesside, its just that it's all being handed over to a small number of the right people and not the town. Boro was refused tens of millions because the council wanted the money to be accountable and the mayor said it could only go to his no scrutiny cash in brown envelope operation...
"The reverse has happened" - because the money got spent on two once in a generation/century events: Covid furlough and the Ukraine War spike in energy requiring support to bill payers.
Without them, I reckon a lot of levelling up would have happened. But that would not have been without political consequence. There are plenty in the blue wall who resent money being sent "up north".
It would be churlish to claim you don't have a point. Nonetheless Middlesbrough could have been transformed into Porto Fino for the money wasted on faulty PPE.
Looks like the Tories are being battered everywhere tbh. Plymouth, Medway and Stoke good results for Labour to pick out 3 working class places.
I think Anthony King will be getting up from his grave to comment on this one.
It looks to me like the Conservatives are heading for about 850 losses.
A rotten result, but actually *not* on a par with those of the mid 90's. The Conservatives have held onto councils that they lost quite comprehensively to Labour and the Lib Dems, back then.
500 to 1000 losses about the same as Labour suffered in 2007 but still better than the over 1000 losses May had in 2019 or the over 2000 losses Major had in 1995.
Sir Keir will be glad Labour have gained bellwether councils like Medway, Stoke and Plymouth but the results suggest they are heading for largest party in a hung parliament or small Labour majority but not a Labour landslide like 1997. For instance Harlow and Basildon and Redditch, which Blair won in 1997, have stayed blue
How's your confident call that the Tories would be winning seats from the Lib Dems panning out at this early stage, out of interest?
Also, the Lib Dems winning twice as many seats as the Tories in a Westminster seat the Tories hold now by a fair majority is not quite the zinger you think it is.
Yes and less than half of councils have declared. North Norfolk was a LD held council where the Tories have made significant gains from the LDs. I always said Tory losses to the LDs in councils the Tories held would be offset by some Tory gains from the LDs in LD controlled councils like North Norfolk.
North Norfolk had a LD MP from 2001 to 2019
So far, it's been trivial gains in the handful of Councils where the Tories start from a base of next to nothing, versus significant losses in the areas which are blue. As was pointed out to you that is most areas in this year of the cycle, notwithstanding losses in 2019, as we're looking at a lot of relatively rural and suburban district councils in England.
In fairness, you put your neck on the line with the call. But, as your head rolls around in the basket, it's probably time to admit the call was wrong.
Probably a bit late to admit anything when your head is rolling around the basket!
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
Until the 1960s it was standard practice in most areas to pour untreated sewage into rivers. That is, there was *never* any effort to treat it. The Tyne, for example, was so polluted Newcastle City Council couldn't hold meetings because of the smell. The Severn was worse.
That does not mean we should be happy with the current situation.
Certainly we should always be looking to improve things.
Though as salmon are now swimming into the centre of Sheffield then it suggests that the waterways are cleaner now then they've been for centuries.
Well. My ward stayed rock solid Labour, as anticipated.
My Lib Dem candidate friend went backwards in votes, from over a 1,000 to under 800. I put this down to her doing no campaigning as she has recently had a baby.
Building "some goddam homes" is a manifesto commitment, not something government can do before the next election.
Looking back, it's probably something government should have started during the pandemic (rather than, say, Eat out to help out) in order to boost the economy.
The old saw about the best time to plant a tree springs to mind. Even if the government won't see results before the election, they can certainly start: plans, proposals, laws, changes to regulations. If they do absolutely nothing in this area and then put something in the manifesto then they clearly aren't serious about it, because that's blowing 12 months they could have been using to get started with what they need to do.
They clearly aren't, given they've been in power for well over a decade. I'd be the first to applaud them if they started now (especially as it's not going to change anyone's vote), but I'd also be amazed if they do, given they've never shown any sign of thinking beyond the next election.
Sunak will blame this all on his predecessors. But he is wrong. I've seen his power draining away outside of Westminster already. Westminster usually follows after a short delay.
Yes I totally agree.
One reason why I think they're going to fare even worse at the GE (and said so yesterday) is that Sunak is fading. He has literally nothing.
During the GE campaign he will be found wanting. He not only doesn't like being put under pressure with awkward questions, he also has a fair bit of murkiness in his locker. Either way, he is empty. A manager, but devoid of political charisma.
Again, I'm not saying Starmer is brilliant but the bar is a low one to beat.
His big mistake was not removing Braverman. Sunak had every chance to remove the NASTY PARTY tag which Johnson Truss Rees Mogg Patel and Dorries had left him with and he chose not to. Instead he made the monster in chief his home secretary who declared war on refugees
It's actually worse than that, as she was reappointed having been sacked for a fairly serious breach of the law.
Even an OFSTED inspector would have got the chop for what she did. And that's saying something given how unsafe most of them seem to be around children.
Good morning all. Especially to Jack W!
It does seem that the writing is on the wall for the Tories unless they can get rid of the nasty ones! Seems like some of the new cabinet members, such as Barclay, are quite keen to get the tag!
That's just plain dumb. If people are switching en masse to Labour and the LDs why would a swing to the right bring them back?
Never mind that Sunak is on the Tory right. Seen his immigration policy?
It was expected to be pretty bad for the party and that looks to be holding true. Nothing has really changed - they continue to cling on to the hope that they start off far enough ahead that they can cling in a GE.
So what can Sunak do?
He can't bury the past he was part of. He can't do change. He can't do down to Earth. He is struggling to recover on the competence front, but there is too much damage.
He could try to do compassionate conservatism, but would need to ditch Braverman and do a 180 on some key policies.
What can he do?
Nothing. The party members and MPs won't wear a 180. Boris in 2019 could realistically claim he would bring victory so they'd listen, but Sunak can't. As you note too much damage and baggage is in place to win on competence.
All he can do is look for easy wins and try to patch the biggest leaks in the boat. They'll go big on culture and fear if change, which will have some effect but not enough without more substance.
I see the Conservative did well in Grimsby, Peterborough, Scunthorpe and Thurrock.
How the world changes.
I wonder how well the results correlate to housing affordability.
Probably more to do with house building because more supply -> more affordability.
Interestingly around here it's the new housing estates where the Tories do well.
My theory is that where new housing is seen as an improvement on what is already there then it is popular but when it is viewed as 'shitboxes' in 'pretty villages' then its opposed.
My theory is it's always opposed but the people who move in can see it's fine.
That's just plain dumb. If people are switching en masse to Labour and the LDs why would a swing to the right bring them back?
Never mind that Sunak is on the Tory right. Seen his immigration policy?
It was expected to be pretty bad for the party and that looks to be holding true. Nothing has really changed - they continue to cling on to the hope that they start off far enough ahead that they can cling in a GE.
So what can Sunak do?
He can't bury the past he was part of. He can't do change. He can't do down to Earth. He is struggling to recover on the competence front, but there is too much damage.
He could try to do compassionate conservatism, but would need to ditch Braverman and do a 180 on some key policies.
What can he do?
Nothing. The party members and MPs won't wear a 180. Boris in 2019 could realistically claim he would bring victory so they'd listen, but Sunak can't. As you note too much damage and baggage is in place to win on competence.
All he can do is look for easy wins and try to patch the biggest leaks in the boat. They'll go big on culture and fear if change, which will have some effect but not enough without more substance.
If they go that route, don't they need to change the leader from Sunak to some kind of bruiser?
I'm dreading the result in St Albans City and District. The Yellow Peril already run the area and now they are intent on putting the Tories on the endangered list. The local Tory MP is doing the chicken run so Harpenden looks like joining St Albans as a Lib Dem parliamentary seat.
I may have to consider exile to avoid the dreaded Yellow Peril. Even Windsor is now no go area !!!!
As predicted a bad night for the conservatives and inevitable following the Johnson/Truss debacle and the cost of living crisis
Sunak remains their best hope and if he is reading the room then he has 18 months to reset our relationship with the EU and continue to make progress with the economy
Those siren voices for Johnson and Truss need to understand the wrong person is taking the can for their period in office
Sunak was a key part of the Johnson administration. He is not the change we need.
I kind of like Sunak but not his choices. Williamson, Zahawi, Raab, Braverman all either dim or toxic. Dowden as DPM, seriously?
If he really wanted to reach out to the Blue Wall voters they are losing he should be working hard to get Rory the ex Tory and some of the others back into the party.
He's trying to personally project 'sensible middle of the road chap' image whilst still, despite the fulminations of the Borisites, being pretty hard right in his politics and allies, with a few exceptions. Trying to claw back some centrist types without upsetting the chuntering base.
It might be better to go all in as a competent Truss/Boris tribute act or a desperate pivot to the centre to try to block LD recovery even at the cost of losing some on the right. But it's too late to change direction now.
The idea they might seek to change leader again or just radically rework their targeting is just sad at this point - they're too tired try that now, with a year and a bit left.
They have one roll of the dice. They cannot add a new leader, but they could bring back Boris. He got very close last time.
@JACK_W Broxbourne remained solidly Conservative. Other than that, you’ll have to cross the border into Essex, where the Conservatives seem to be doing much better than in Hertfordshire.
The really good news is that the country might be turning a corner. When the Greens and Lib Dems do well and the UKIP/TORIES do badly it strongly suggests the country is becoming civilised again.
Who knows. Maybe SKS will feel able to stop pretending to be a Tory to win over the Hartlepools?
That's just plain dumb. If people are switching en masse to Labour and the LDs why would a swing to the right bring them back?
Never mind that Sunak is on the Tory right. Seen his immigration policy?
It was expected to be pretty bad for the party and that looks to be holding true. Nothing has really changed - they continue to cling on to the hope that they start off far enough ahead that they can cling in a GE.
So what can Sunak do?
He can't bury the past he was part of. He can't do change. He can't do down to Earth. He is struggling to recover on the competence front, but there is too much damage.
He could try to do compassionate conservatism, but would need to ditch Braverman and do a 180 on some key policies.
What can he do?
Nothing. The party members and MPs won't wear a 180. Boris in 2019 could realistically claim he would bring victory so they'd listen, but Sunak can't. As you note too much damage and baggage is in place to win on competence.
All he can do is look for easy wins and try to patch the biggest leaks in the boat. They'll go big on culture and fear if change, which will have some effect but not enough without more substance.
If they go that route, don't they need to change the leader from Sunak to some kind of bruiser?
Even they cannot switch again.
They do seem to have really squandered 2019. I know covid disrupted everything but even with that they've run scared of big changes like planning reform. They got a Brexit deal through but other than that what have they spent political capital on? Restricting the vote and expanding ability to arrest protestors?
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
There is a general sense that things are going backwards. This may be unfair, but it’s what people feel. The water is dirtier and the Tories have taken ownership of it. That is not a great look. If it were me, I’d want voters to know that tackling any issues and putting them right was an absolute priority. As I say, it’s a visceral - and very visible - issue.
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
There is a general sense that things are going backwards. This may be unfair, but it’s what people feel. The water is dirtier and the Tories have taken ownership of it. That is not a great look. If it were me, I’d want voters to know that tackling any issues and putting them right was an absolute priority. As I say, it’s a visceral - and very visible - issue.
But isn't the problem that actually the water is not dirtier. At least not compared with any time in the last century or so. This is a manufactured issue. What can be argued is that the Tories should be dealing with it faster but the idea that our rivers have got worse in the last decade and a half is a myth.
That's just plain dumb. If people are switching en masse to Labour and the LDs why would a swing to the right bring them back?
Never mind that Sunak is on the Tory right. Seen his immigration policy?
It was expected to be pretty bad for the party and that looks to be holding true. Nothing has really changed - they continue to cling on to the hope that they start off far enough ahead that they can cling in a GE.
So what can Sunak do?
He can't bury the past he was part of. He can't do change. He can't do down to Earth. He is struggling to recover on the competence front, but there is too much damage.
He could try to do compassionate conservatism, but would need to ditch Braverman and do a 180 on some key policies.
What can he do?
Nothing. The party members and MPs won't wear a 180. Boris in 2019 could realistically claim he would bring victory so they'd listen, but Sunak can't. As you note too much damage and baggage is in place to win on competence.
All he can do is look for easy wins and try to patch the biggest leaks in the boat. They'll go big on culture and fear if change, which will have some effect but not enough without more substance.
If they go that route, don't they need to change the leader from Sunak to some kind of bruiser?
That's just plain dumb. If people are switching en masse to Labour and the LDs why would a swing to the right bring them back?
Never mind that Sunak is on the Tory right. Seen his immigration policy?
It was expected to be pretty bad for the party and that looks to be holding true. Nothing has really changed - they continue to cling on to the hope that they start off far enough ahead that they can cling in a GE.
So what can Sunak do?
He can't bury the past he was part of. He can't do change. He can't do down to Earth. He is struggling to recover on the competence front, but there is too much damage.
He could try to do compassionate conservatism, but would need to ditch Braverman and do a 180 on some key policies.
What can he do?
Nothing. The party members and MPs won't wear a 180. Boris in 2019 could realistically claim he would bring victory so they'd listen, but Sunak can't. As you note too much damage and baggage is in place to win on competence.
All he can do is look for easy wins and try to patch the biggest leaks in the boat. They'll go big on culture and fear if change, which will have some effect but not enough without more substance.
If they go that route, don't they need to change the leader from Sunak to some kind of bruiser?
I see the Conservative did well in Grimsby, Peterborough, Scunthorpe and Thurrock.
How the world changes.
I wonder how well the results correlate to housing affordability.
Probably more to do with house building because more supply -> more affordability.
Interestingly around here it's the new housing estates where the Tories do well.
My theory is that where new housing is seen as an improvement on what is already there then it is popular but when it is viewed as 'shitboxes' in 'pretty villages' then its opposed.
My theory is it's always opposed but the people who move in can see it's fine.
New housing is always opposed, but that isn't quite the same as saying it's always unpopular. Part of the role of councillors (and opposing parties in their wards) is to distinguish the inevitable howls of a vocal minority from a more widespread issue.
It isn't particularly unusual to have some people who, perfectly understandably, would rather have a view over a field than a housing estate and who are very vocal on it. But you then go down the road to many more people whose outlook from their living room window is entirely unaffected, and who see it as good news for kids who can't afford a home nearby, for the local shops, for the brand new school that is part of the development dividend and so on. The vocal opposition bandwagon can be, but certainly isn't necessarily, the one to jump on from a purely political perspective.
Before all the excitement started, there were a couple of success criteria being bandied about.
Labour needed to be 10 points ahead on NEV to be in a good position for the General Election.
Conservatives needed to lose 1000 seats before people could point and laugh about a Terrible Night For The Tories. (Not that people should point and laugh really. Good councillors, doing well for their patch, will have been kicked out last night for wearing the wrong rosette. It's nature's way, but not nice, whoever's involved.)
From what we've seen so far, is there a fair chance that both those boxes will be ticked?
Looks like both measures to be met but there's a prospect of a shedload of Tory losses to the Lib Dems in the seats still to be declared, mostly in the South of England. Lib Dems are back could be the message of the day.
The Lib Dem performance is (I hope) a fascinating omen of what could happen at the GE due to the nature of FPTP.
The Lib Dem vote share looks like it’s stayed almost at a standstill, while the conservatives vote has declined a little. But huge numbers of seats are falling to the Lib Dems. This is the sight of the dam break in areas where the yellows came second in the last election. All it takes is a few points of Tory decline and they clean up across large swathes of the country.
I don't know about huge swathes. As @rcs1000 has pointed out before, beyond a score or so of seats, the swing (or tactical vote) required is quite large.
On the face of it the Lib Dems look poised for a large increase in vote share, lots of reasonably good second places, and not so many more MPs. Except that they remain becalmed in the opinion polls.
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
There is a general sense that things are going backwards. This may be unfair, but it’s what people feel. The water is dirtier and the Tories have taken ownership of it. That is not a great look. If it were me, I’d want voters to know that tackling any issues and putting them right was an absolute priority. As I say, it’s a visceral - and very visible - issue.
But isn't the problem that actually the water is not dirtier. At least not compared with any time in the last century or so. This is a manufactured issue. What can be argued is that the Tories should be dealing with it faster but the idea that our rivers have got worse in the last decade and a half is a myth.
The trigger seems to have been a relatively recent decision to extend deadlines for water companies to hit clean-up targets.
That's just plain dumb. If people are switching en masse to Labour and the LDs why would a swing to the right bring them back?
Never mind that Sunak is on the Tory right. Seen his immigration policy?
It was expected to be pretty bad for the party and that looks to be holding true. Nothing has really changed - they continue to cling on to the hope that they start off far enough ahead that they can cling in a GE.
So what can Sunak do?
He can't bury the past he was part of. He can't do change. He can't do down to Earth. He is struggling to recover on the competence front, but there is too much damage.
He could try to do compassionate conservatism, but would need to ditch Braverman and do a 180 on some key policies.
What can he do?
Nothing. The party members and MPs won't wear a 180. Boris in 2019 could realistically claim he would bring victory so they'd listen, but Sunak can't. As you note too much damage and baggage is in place to win on competence.
All he can do is look for easy wins and try to patch the biggest leaks in the boat. They'll go big on culture and fear if change, which will have some effect but not enough without more substance.
If they go that route, don't they need to change the leader from Sunak to some kind of bruiser?
Barclay does seem to have been cleaning up his image, so may well stand but it is hard to see how he takes over in government as the last throw of the dice before the election.
Some advice to the Tories: do something about the raw sewage pouring into our rivers and seas. You own it and it is visceral.
Hasn't it always done so ?
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
There is a general sense that things are going backwards. This may be unfair, but it’s what people feel. The water is dirtier and the Tories have taken ownership of it. That is not a great look. If it were me, I’d want voters to know that tackling any issues and putting them right was an absolute priority. As I say, it’s a visceral - and very visible - issue.
To be honest, if it's a choice between cleaner rivers or lower water rates, I'm taking the latter.
That's just plain dumb. If people are switching en masse to Labour and the LDs why would a swing to the right bring them back?
Never mind that Sunak is on the Tory right. Seen his immigration policy?
It was expected to be pretty bad for the party and that looks to be holding true. Nothing has really changed - they continue to cling on to the hope that they start off far enough ahead that they can cling in a GE.
So what can Sunak do?
He can't bury the past he was part of. He can't do change. He can't do down to Earth. He is struggling to recover on the competence front, but there is too much damage.
He could try to do compassionate conservatism, but would need to ditch Braverman and do a 180 on some key policies.
What can he do?
Nothing. The party members and MPs won't wear a 180. Boris in 2019 could realistically claim he would bring victory so they'd listen, but Sunak can't. As you note too much damage and baggage is in place to win on competence.
All he can do is look for easy wins and try to patch the biggest leaks in the boat. They'll go big on culture and fear if change, which will have some effect but not enough without more substance.
If they go that route, don't they need to change the leader from Sunak to some kind of bruiser?
Barclay is exactly the face that the Tories don't need. he represents the arrogant populist wing of the Tory Party that got them into these difficulties in the first place. Sunak, despite being a Brexiter (and having Braverman as HS) is someone that has a sense of decency about him. He needs to stay where he is.
Comments
Also, the Lib Dems winning twice as many seats as the Tories in a Westminster seat the Tories hold now by a fair majority is not quite the zinger you think it is.
How the world changes.
I wonder how well the results correlate to housing affordability.
We've spent a century, and an ocean of public cash, trying to bribe post-industrial towns to grow, and, guess what, the towns that were falling apart then are still falling apart.
Interestingly around here it's the new housing estates where the Tories do well.
Whereas Sunak has control of the party but the party is much less popular than it was in 2019.
North Norfolk had a LD MP from 2001 to 2019
It could be argued that four seats is far more than they deserve, having basically bankrupted the district, but that's another matter.
Even an OFSTED inspector would have got the chop for what she did. And that's saying something given how unsafe most of them seem to be around children.
Without them, I reckon a lot of levelling up would have happened. But that would not have been without political consequence. There are plenty in the blue wall who resent money being sent "up north".
Given that environmental standards have tended to steadily rise and that there's certainly less industrial pollution of the waterways I would be surprised if sewage dumping, as opposed to its reporting, is a new thing.
That does not mean we should be happy with the current situation.
In fairness, you put your neck on the line with the call. But, as your head rolls around in the basket, it's probably time to admit the call was wrong.
Never mind that Sunak is on the Tory right. Seen his immigration policy?
It was expected to be pretty bad for the party and that looks to be holding true. Nothing has really changed - they continue to cling on to the hope that they start off far enough ahead that they can cling in a GE.
In other news today, even when sober the DfE are stupid ignorant twats and the Pope is a Catholic.
There is a specific problem with proposed Council Tax increases in North Norfolk.
Oh, oh dear
He can't bury the past he was part of. He can't do change. He can't do down to Earth. He is struggling to recover on the competence front, but there is too much damage.
He could try to do compassionate conservatism, but would need to ditch Braverman and do a 180 on some key policies.
What can he do?
It might be better to go all in as a competent Truss/Boris tribute act or a desperate pivot to the centre to try to block LD recovery even at the cost of losing some on the right. But it's too late to change direction now.
The idea they might seek to change leader again or just radically rework their targeting is just sad at this point - they're too tired try that now, with a year and a bit left.
I know lots of people get all upset with all the ceremony and cost, but the history and myth around it is fascinating.
Though as salmon are now swimming into the centre of Sheffield then it suggests that the waterways are cleaner now then they've been for centuries.
My Lib Dem candidate friend went backwards in votes, from over a 1,000 to under 800. I put this down to her doing no campaigning as she has recently had a baby.
I'd be the first to applaud them if they started now (especially as it's not going to change anyone's vote), but I'd also be amazed if they do, given they've never shown any sign of thinking beyond the next election.
It does seem that the writing is on the wall for the Tories unless they can get rid of the nasty ones! Seems like some of the new cabinet members, such as Barclay, are quite keen to get the tag!
All he can do is look for easy wins and try to patch the biggest leaks in the boat. They'll go big on culture and fear if change, which will have some effect but not enough without more substance.
Three is normal. Four is a Russian troll. So that makes you a half Russian troll?
So where are the numbers for another Tory majority going to come from?
Who knows. Maybe SKS will feel able to stop pretending to be a Tory to win over the Hartlepools?
They do seem to have really squandered 2019. I know covid disrupted everything but even with that they've run scared of big changes like planning reform. They got a Brexit deal through but other than that what have they spent political capital on? Restricting the vote and expanding ability to arrest protestors?
I suggest worse.
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3989389-doj-finds-insider-witness-in-trump-mar-a-lago-documents-probe-report/
Could be a Netflix series though, along the lines of Better Call Saul, exploring the events that led to the decline of the conservative party
Oh dear, I have just looked at the weather forecast for tomorrow. It looks like Diana's tears will rain on Charles's parade.
It isn't particularly unusual to have some people who, perfectly understandably, would rather have a view over a field than a housing estate and who are very vocal on it. But you then go down the road to many more people whose outlook from their living room window is entirely unaffected, and who see it as good news for kids who can't afford a home nearby, for the local shops, for the brand new school that is part of the development dividend and so on. The vocal opposition bandwagon can be, but certainly isn't necessarily, the one to jump on from a purely political perspective.
More Greg Hands on the telly, please.
Love,
Labour and the LibDems x