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Polling matters – politicalbetting.com

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,921
    There may (or may not) be a lot to say about Sunak's wealth.

    But his background and the story of his parents appears to be one of hard work and sacrifice for their kids. The line 'if you work hard and do well you cannot represent your ethnicity' seems an odd one for Labour to take. Especially since Starmer (and many Labour politicians) seems to have similar stories.

    One thing I'd like to know: I'd guess Sunak has faced racism in the past. Has he ever talked about it?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,143
    Andy_JS said:

    The $64,000 question is how close was Rishi Sunak to resigning his seat in parliament? I know he'd officially said that he wasn't going to, but in reality he may have been considering it.

    Old horse punters wisdom - don't throw your betting slip away until they're weighed in.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,402

    Selebian said:

    Fun fact - each PM gets their own lectern…

    What do we think @RishiSunak will look like?


    https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1584813870639878144

    Cameron's - certain aesthetic, but lacks substance in the middle
    May's - straight and upstanding, but it doesn't look particularly strong or stable
    Johnson's - wide boy
    Truss's - Twisted, chaotic
    Sunak's - I think I'd use some scaffolding poles and go for 'rebuilding'
    Anyone know how these lecterns are done?

    What's the timeframe for designing and making them, and how much (if any) input does the incoming PM get?

    Is there a cupboard with half a dozen lecterns ready to go?

    Is it like wands in Harry Potter, and the lectern somehow chooses the Prime Minister?
    Couldn't we just use the sorting hat for PMs?
    I like that Dizzy Lizzy's is in a spin.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,122
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he no longer believes Rishi Sunak is a "socialist" and would now serve in his Cabinet if asked.

    He urges Tory unity and warns party faces wipeout at the next GE.

    Tells @Telegraph he is proud of achievements as Business Secretary
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/25/jacob-rees-mogg-rishi-sunak-socialist-cabinet/

    He really is a piece of work. I hope Sunak offers him a cabinet post as ambassador to North Korea.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,971
    A question for the future: if the Conservatives recover well but end up losing with something like 280 seats, would Sunak try to stay on as leader, and would he succeed?
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,085
    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    It just shows how brilliant Nicola Sturgeon is:

    "Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."

    "That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"

    And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
    I think it shows more how crap that Labour MP is. Sturgeon's approach should be the response of any sane, decent person.
    Yes it's not difficult to celebrate that aspect whilst attacking his politics. Although sometimes these comments are provoked in response to partisan hyperbole. Eg, "Sunak's ascent to PM shows the Tories are champions of diversity and that racism is dead and buried in Britain in 2022".
    I do think it should be recognized that the Tories have had the first ethnic minority Prime Minister, three female Prime Ministers and now the first non-white Prime Minister. Meanwhile Labour have had an endless succession of white men in the role, with another one next in line. Does the Labour Party have a bigotry problem?
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,804
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he no longer believes Rishi Sunak is a "socialist" and would now serve in his Cabinet if asked.

    He urges Tory unity and warns party faces wipeout at the next GE.

    Tells @Telegraph he is proud of achievements as Business Secretary
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/25/jacob-rees-mogg-rishi-sunak-socialist-cabinet/

    Would now serve if asked....

    I sincerely hope to lol at that one.
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 3,884
    edited October 2022

    So who is watching this morning's partial eclipse?

    Took some very amateur pictures with it projected onto a piece of white paper. Two sunspot groups, one hidden at maximum eclipse.

    Probably not very auspicious having an eclipse today...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,675

    A question for the future: if the Conservatives recover well but end up losing with something like 280 seats, would Sunak try to stay on as leader, and would he succeed?

    If he gets that many I think he has a chance, if he wants it. But I think even with that, relatively respectable, loss, he'd be out on his ear.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,579
    Germany's President on the train to #Ukraine ...

    https://twitter.com/gerhard_gnauck/status/1584854704844337152
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,867
    55 Tufton Street has been attacked with orange paint by Just Stop Oil h/t @GregBarradale https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1584856512111202304/photo/1


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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,085
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    None of that oath taking or swearing on a holy book stuff, just 'Shake this hand' and you've got the gig.
    He has to kneel and kiss the hand, but they don't photograph that because it's a bit naff.

    That's a rather nice blue pinstripe His Maj is wearing.
    Are they at Buck House? Doesn't Chuck know you don't wear brown in town?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,867
    Photo this morning of the final Truss Cabinet.
    Just how many will survive?

    This could be the political equivalent of a spot-the-ball competition.
    #showingmyage https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1584858944845250561/photo/1


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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,675
    edited October 2022
    WillG said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    It just shows how brilliant Nicola Sturgeon is:

    "Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."

    "That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"

    And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
    I think it shows more how crap that Labour MP is. Sturgeon's approach should be the response of any sane, decent person.
    Yes it's not difficult to celebrate that aspect whilst attacking his politics. Although sometimes these comments are provoked in response to partisan hyperbole. Eg, "Sunak's ascent to PM shows the Tories are champions of diversity and that racism is dead and buried in Britain in 2022".
    I do think it should be recognized that the Tories have had the first ethnic minority Prime Minister, three female Prime Ministers and now the first non-white Prime Minister. Meanwhile Labour have had an endless succession of white men in the role, with another one next in line. Does the Labour Party have a bigotry problem?
    Their MPs are diverse and support is diverse. There has been a rapid rise in MPs from ethnic minorities, and not many contests in that time, so I doubt it, at least above and beyond the nation in general.
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976
    Ah - I’ve never been so relieved to see the back of a prime minister
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,911
    kle4 said:

    So how ballsy is Rishi going to be at PMQs tomorrow? It'd be hilarious if he says, to the inevitable calls for a GE, that he would definitely win it but now is not the time, and in any case no one wants the chaos of a Labour government.

    Why would that be "hilarious" exactly?

    It would be a pathetic lie, pure and simple.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,255

    I'm struggling to understand the idea that Russia's economic contraction will only be 3% of GDP. If it is based on the very limited information they are providing us with that seems foolish. Why on earth would you trust any of the figures currently emanating from Moscow. And even if they are accurate surely the figures they are withholding are going to be much more damning about their position.

    Over a million have left the country. Many of those among the best paid and most educated section of the population. The mobilisation means taking a further half million out of the economy. Rumours of people going into hiding to avoid being conscripted. Their prisons are full to bursting. Their workforce mus now be down 1.5 million. Foreign companies have left Russia en masse. They are extremely reliant on western tech and do not have much home-grown industry. They cannot access western capital. What they can do is export their raw materials. Oil did rise sharply at the start of the war but has come down again and Russia is not selling it at full price with the massive logistical difficulties of getting it to India and China. Gas prices surged, maybe they made massive sums from European countries wanting to replenish their stocks in time for winter?

    I maintain my opinion that the medium to long term forecast for the Russian economy seems woeful. Even their hydrocarbon industry will struggle without western expertise and they won't have gas revenues. But the idea they have bought time this year also feels sceptical to me. They may have dug into their remaining accessible foreign reserves but that won't be sustainable. Still even if it is only 3%, given the amount of GDP now being spent on the war effort I suppose it will feel considerably worse for most Russians.

    They are spending their reserves (both men and currency)

    Wars do strange things to economies.

    German output apparently rose till quite late in the war. Which often used to argue strategic bombing failed. But then you look at individual big ticket weapons - production collapsed in 1944 for many of them.

    Output of what? Is the question.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    I'm not trying to be mean to Rishi but everyone knows he's wealthy. Best not to pretend otherwise.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he no longer believes Rishi Sunak is a "socialist" and would now serve in his Cabinet if asked.

    He urges Tory unity and warns party faces wipeout at the next GE.

    Tells @Telegraph he is proud of achievements as Business Secretary
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/25/jacob-rees-mogg-rishi-sunak-socialist-cabinet/

    I no longer believe Jacob Rees-Mogg is a twat.

    Only joking.....
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,143
    WillG said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    It just shows how brilliant Nicola Sturgeon is:

    "Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."

    "That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"

    And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
    I think it shows more how crap that Labour MP is. Sturgeon's approach should be the response of any sane, decent person.
    Yes it's not difficult to celebrate that aspect whilst attacking his politics. Although sometimes these comments are provoked in response to partisan hyperbole. Eg, "Sunak's ascent to PM shows the Tories are champions of diversity and that racism is dead and buried in Britain in 2022".
    I do think it should be recognized that the Tories have had the first ethnic minority Prime Minister, three female Prime Ministers and now the first non-white Prime Minister. Meanwhile Labour have had an endless succession of white men in the role, with another one next in line. Does the Labour Party have a bigotry problem?
    Yes. As do the Tories. Both parties reflect society in this respect.
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    Steve Bray making a twat of himself as usual I see.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,122
    A Prime Minister who doesn't leak his appointments in advance?

    We haven't had one of those for a while.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,675

    There may (or may not) be a lot to say about Sunak's wealth.

    But his background and the story of his parents appears to be one of hard work and sacrifice for their kids. The line 'if you work hard and do well you cannot represent your ethnicity' seems an odd one for Labour to take. Especially since Starmer (and many Labour politicians) seems to have similar stories.

    It reall should not be a hard line to walk for political opponents.

    Say his policies do not help the country, particularly the less well off and more vulnerable. If they want say one reason for that is he is from a comfortable background and is stonkingly wealthy.

    Then just don't add 'Therefore he is only superficially brown/doesn't represent brown people/I cannot tell he is of indian descent on the radio'.
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    Here he is....
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,122

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he no longer believes Rishi Sunak is a "socialist" and would now serve in his Cabinet if asked.

    He urges Tory unity and warns party faces wipeout at the next GE.

    Tells @Telegraph he is proud of achievements as Business Secretary
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/25/jacob-rees-mogg-rishi-sunak-socialist-cabinet/

    I no longer believe Jacob Rees-Mogg is a twat.

    Only joking.....
    I don't either.

    That would be unfair to twats.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,675
    ydoethur said:

    A Prime Minister who doesn't leak his appointments in advance?

    We haven't had one of those for a while.

    Well we have had it trailed Raab might be getting HS.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Ah - I’ve never been so relieved to see the back of a prime minister

    So Rishi has a gold motif on the back of his suit, emblazoned with "GET OUT OF MY WAY, BITCHES"?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,122
    Boy, is he treading a fine line here. Trying to rubbish Truss without accusing her of being useless.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,255

    No “Liz resigning” photo? They’re trying to forget about it already?

    I dont think there ever is
    Sadly, they never implemented my suggestion - the Queen hires, the Duke of Edinburgh would do exit interviews for PMs.

    Imagine what Phil would say to Truss….

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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Sunak starts by correctly identifying the two causes of the problems.
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,085
    kle4 said:

    WillG said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    It just shows how brilliant Nicola Sturgeon is:

    "Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."

    "That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"

    And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
    I think it shows more how crap that Labour MP is. Sturgeon's approach should be the response of any sane, decent person.
    Yes it's not difficult to celebrate that aspect whilst attacking his politics. Although sometimes these comments are provoked in response to partisan hyperbole. Eg, "Sunak's ascent to PM shows the Tories are champions of diversity and that racism is dead and buried in Britain in 2022".
    I do think it should be recognized that the Tories have had the first ethnic minority Prime Minister, three female Prime Ministers and now the first non-white Prime Minister. Meanwhile Labour have had an endless succession of white men in the role, with another one next in line. Does the Labour Party have a bigotry problem?
    Their MPs are diverse and support is diverse. There has been a rapid rise in MPs from ethnic minorities, and not many contests in that time, so I doubt it, at least above and beyond the nation in general.
    Yet they are never willing to out an ethnic minority, or even a woman, in the top job.
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,085
    WillG said:

    kle4 said:

    WillG said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    It just shows how brilliant Nicola Sturgeon is:

    "Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."

    "That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"

    And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
    I think it shows more how crap that Labour MP is. Sturgeon's approach should be the response of any sane, decent person.
    Yes it's not difficult to celebrate that aspect whilst attacking his politics. Although sometimes these comments are provoked in response to partisan hyperbole. Eg, "Sunak's ascent to PM shows the Tories are champions of diversity and that racism is dead and buried in Britain in 2022".
    I do think it should be recognized that the Tories have had the first ethnic minority Prime Minister, three female Prime Ministers and now the first non-white Prime Minister. Meanwhile Labour have had an endless succession of white men in the role, with another one next in line. Does the Labour Party have a bigotry problem?
    Their MPs are diverse and support is diverse. There has been a rapid rise in MPs from ethnic minorities, and not many contests in that time, so I doubt it, at least above and beyond the nation in general.
    Yet they are never willing to out an ethnic minority, or even a woman, in the top job.
    Put*
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    Comedically brutal speech. Mistakes were made. I am here to fix them.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,399
    Much, much better from Sunak today. He does 'human'.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Scott_xP said:

    55 Tufton Street has been attacked with orange paint by Just Stop Oil h/t @GregBarradale https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1584856512111202304/photo/1


    I so hope that is oil-based paint....
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,122
    Going big on debt here.

    'Not with words but with action.'

    However - he's a bit light on what the actions will be. He's mostly saying fairly empty things here.
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    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,157
    Truss thrown under the bus.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Liz Truss united the country with words and actions.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    Firstly do we really need 31 people in the cabinet?

    Survivors Hunt, Wallace, Mordaunt, Badenoch. Maybe Zahawi and Sharma?
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Sounds like finally for the first time since May we've got grown up's in charge.
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    Very different Sunak to yesterday. Far less robotic.
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    "mandate doesn't belong to an individual", translation: "no election".
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,122
    Addressing the mandate of 2019. Going big on the manifesto too.

    'I won't call an election so go suck yourself Starmer' would have been quicker.
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    Truss thrown under the bus.

    Boris now being thrown under the bus as well. It wasn't a Boris mandate, it was a Tory manifesto.
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    Jonathan said:

    Liz Truss united the country with words and actions.

    Yer shit, fuck off"
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Germany's President on the train to #Ukraine ...

    https://twitter.com/gerhard_gnauck/status/1584854704844337152

    Is he taking 100 Leopard tanks with him?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,122
    Full backing to Ukraine.
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    Ah - I’ve never been so relieved to see the back of a prime minister

    I wonder how much damage the Liz thing will do to the Tories. Rishi aside, will the public conclude: if the Tories can be that stupid with Truss then what might they do in future? Will the fact that they addressed the problem in record time give some salvation?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,971
    So far, sounds like the best PM since Cameron. More serious than the two immediate predecessors, more likeable than May.

    But, it's just one speech.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,479

    Steve Bray making a twat of himself as usual I see.

    His vocal cords must be super-human. Never seems to stop.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,675
    Scott_xP said:

    Photo this morning of the final Truss Cabinet.
    Just how many will survive?

    This could be the political equivalent of a spot-the-ball competition.
    #showingmyage https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1584858944845250561/photo/1


    So Clarke/Donelan/Jayawardena/Smith/Badenoch/Ellis are the smiliest, so they are keeping their jobs?

    It is a weird one, clearly no direction on whether this was a smile or serious photo. Cleverly and Zahawi look like they want to punch the cameraman, with Wallace looking like hs is sat on something uncomfortable, whilst others are beaming.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,075
    Is someone playing the Kaiser Chiefs in the background ?
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,399

    No “Liz resigning” photo? They’re trying to forget about it already?

    I dont think there ever is
    Sadly, they never implemented my suggestion - the Queen hires, the Duke of Edinburgh would do exit interviews for PMs.

    Imagine what Phil would say to Truss….

    Imagine what he'd have said to Sunak, given his (DoE's) track record :open_mouth:
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    Whilst I await to see Rishi remove the lunatics (and "restore trust") it is a great relief that for the fist time in 5 or 6 years we can have a competent rational government again.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    He's doing emotion now. Good grief.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,122
    edited October 2022

    So far, sounds like the best PM since Cameron. More serious than the two immediate predecessors, more likeable than May.

    But, it's just one speech.

    He's saying all the right things. And he said it in plain English with a coherence altogether lacking in his predecessors.

    It's whether he can actually turn those into concrete policies which will work that is the question. No details on any of them so far. Can't even really reconcile it with what he said in the summer.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,136
    "Hard working, stable, accountability, integrity, trust."
    "I will be grateful to Boris Johnson, but..."
    "I've inherited a mandate to deliver the 2019 manifesto..."
    "Opportunities of Brexit"
    "Cost of Covid"
    "Terrible war"
    "I know things are hard for you"
    "I bloody wanted to be PM, right enough"

    You can see the talking points clearly enumerated.
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    So far, sounds like the best PM since Cameron. More serious than the two immediate predecessors, more likeable than May.

    But, it's just one speech.

    It was a very low bar.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,174
    #forwardwithrishi
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,911
    Decent speech from Sunak – a massive improvement on yesterday's meagre effort
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,675

    Truss thrown under the bus.

    Boris now being thrown under the bus as well. It wasn't a Boris mandate, it was a Tory manifesto.
    Yes. Granted, a lot of people do vote for the leader, he gets credit. but officially that is not how it works. And if Borisites are saying it is a personal mandate, then they cannot complain about the 2019 manifesto not being followed, which they do.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited October 2022
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (-1)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    REF: 4% (-)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 23 Oct

    MoE stuff. A worry?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,922
    Rigby being a twat live on Sky
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976
    What a difference between Truss and Sunak.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,971
    Mr. Urquhart, as we've seen with Truss, sometimes even low bars can trip up politicians.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Feels like waking up from a bad dream of the Truss Premiership.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    The adult has entered the building.

    Hurrah!

    At bloody last.

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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Taz said:

    Is someone playing the Kaiser Chiefs in the background ?

    Yup. Childish idiots. You might not agree with someone but let them speak.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,579
    Sunaks says his party's 2019 election mandate is "not the property of any one individual".

    That rams home that the Tories are bigger than one man ie Johnson.
    But is also an attempt by Sunak to justify his own constitutional role as PM - and avoid an early election.


    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1584861414086148098
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    edited October 2022

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (-1)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    REF: 4% (-)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 23 Oct

    THE COMEBACK STARTS HERE.

    Who would have thought a poll showing the Tories in the 20s would be an.. improvement for them.
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976
    Taz said:

    Is someone playing the Kaiser Chiefs in the background ?

    “Rishi Rishi Rishi”?
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    When was the last time that we had a Prime Minister who actually spoke to the country and not to themselves? Its all been introspective, selfish and stupid for what feels like an eternity.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,034
    A new dawn has broken, has it not?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,675
    edited October 2022
    I'm not someone who has ever rated Sunak super highly, I wonder if he has much substance, but I do appreciate at least seeming like he knows what he is saying, even if he does not.
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    dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    Not a bad speech. Was it a deliberate decision to adopt a stern face and not to smile for the cameras?
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Pulpstar said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (-1)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    REF: 4% (-)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 23 Oct

    THE COMEBACK STARTS HERE.

    Who would have thought a poll showing the Tories in the 20s would be an.. improvement for them.
    Scots.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Taz said:

    Is someone playing the Kaiser Chiefs in the background ?

    "I predict a riot"?

    Or the racist curry-waiter trope "Ruby ruby ruby ruby....."?
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,116
    kle4 said:

    A question for the future: if the Conservatives recover well but end up losing with something like 280 seats, would Sunak try to stay on as leader, and would he succeed?

    If he gets that many I think he has a chance, if he wants it. But I think even with that, relatively respectable, loss, he'd be out on his ear.
    At 280 seats the Tories would be pretty close to parity on seats with Labour, maybe a few ahead. It might depend on how secure any Labour-led coalition government looked. If there was a chance of another election within the year then he might have a better chance of holding on if he wanted to.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,075
    Nothing wrong with that at all.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    Good speech I thought.
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    The relief we should all feel after hearing a true Prime Ministerial speech to the nation

    I wish him well and ask the question is it to early to say we have seen a new Blair
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,921

    I'm struggling to understand the idea that Russia's economic contraction will only be 3% of GDP. If it is based on the very limited information they are providing us with that seems foolish. Why on earth would you trust any of the figures currently emanating from Moscow. And even if they are accurate surely the figures they are withholding are going to be much more damning about their position.

    Over a million have left the country. Many of those among the best paid and most educated section of the population. The mobilisation means taking a further half million out of the economy. Rumours of people going into hiding to avoid being conscripted. Their prisons are full to bursting. Their workforce mus now be down 1.5 million. Foreign companies have left Russia en masse. They are extremely reliant on western tech and do not have much home-grown industry. They cannot access western capital. What they can do is export their raw materials. Oil did rise sharply at the start of the war but has come down again and Russia is not selling it at full price with the massive logistical difficulties of getting it to India and China. Gas prices surged, maybe they made massive sums from European countries wanting to replenish their stocks in time for winter?

    I maintain my opinion that the medium to long term forecast for the Russian economy seems woeful. Even their hydrocarbon industry will struggle without western expertise and they won't have gas revenues. But the idea they have bought time this year also feels sceptical to me. They may have dug into their remaining accessible foreign reserves but that won't be sustainable. Still even if it is only 3%, given the amount of GDP now being spent on the war effort I suppose it will feel considerably worse for most Russians.

    They are spending their reserves (both men and currency)

    Wars do strange things to economies.

    German output apparently rose till quite late in the war. Which often used to argue strategic bombing failed. But then you look at individual big ticket weapons - production collapsed in 1944 for many of them.

    Output of what? Is the question.
    Again, I'd like to recommend Francis Spufford's book 'Red Plenty'. It's a very odd book, which goes into the way the Soviet economy seemed to be booming in the 1950s and 1960s - but in reality they were just kidding themselves.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/aug/08/red-plenty-francis-spufford

    It's important, as lying to ourselves about the economy is a trap that is all too easy to fall into. Fortunately, we've never quite done it enough yet to crash our entire system of democratic capitalism.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,075

    Taz said:

    Is someone playing the Kaiser Chiefs in the background ?

    "I predict a riot"?

    Or the racist curry-waiter trope "Ruby ruby ruby ruby....."?
    The riot track.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    A new dawn has broken, has it not?

    No.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (-1)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    REF: 4% (-)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 23 Oct
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,437
    Astute speech.
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    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347
    Pulpstar said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (-1)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    REF: 4% (-)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 23 Oct

    THE COMEBACK STARTS HERE.

    Who would have thought a poll showing the Tories in the 20s would be an.. improvement for them.
    The weirdist thing to me about all the polls recently is that the Lib Dems have barely moved. I would have thought they would have been in the high teens at least.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,122
    edited October 2022
    dodrade said:

    Not a bad speech. Was it a deliberate decision to adopt a stern face and not to smile for the cameras?

    I would hope so, in the circumstances.

    Any other decision would have been Kwarteng to the Treasury levels of unwise.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,034

    A new dawn has broken, has it not?

    No.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (-1)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    REF: 4% (-)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 23 Oct
    Things can only get better.
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    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Considering Rishi's wife is so wealthy I was somewhat surprised she turned up at Buckingham Palace looking like she was going shopping at Primark. Quite a contrast to the always immaculately turned out Rishi.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Pulpstar said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (-1)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    REF: 4% (-)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 23 Oct

    THE COMEBACK STARTS HERE.

    Who would have thought a poll showing the Tories in the 20s would be an.. improvement for them.
    The weirdist thing to me about all the polls recently is that the Lib Dems have barely moved. I would have thought they would have been in the high teens at least.
    I concur.

    One can only assume that they are working their (30?) target seats like madmen and completely ignoring the other 600+ seats.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2022
    WillG said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    It just shows how brilliant Nicola Sturgeon is:

    "Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."

    "That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"

    And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
    I think it shows more how crap that Labour MP is. Sturgeon's approach should be the response of any sane, decent person.
    Yes it's not difficult to celebrate that aspect whilst attacking his politics. Although sometimes these comments are provoked in response to partisan hyperbole. Eg, "Sunak's ascent to PM shows the Tories are champions of diversity and that racism is dead and buried in Britain in 2022".
    I do think it should be recognized that the Tories have had the first ethnic minority Prime Minister, three female Prime Ministers and now the first non-white Prime Minister. Meanwhile Labour have had an endless succession of white men in the role, with another one next in line. Does the Labour Party have a bigotry problem?
    I think partially the Tories have been lucky.

    That is, it needed to take some time after large-scale immigration from Commonwealth countries before this could have happened.

    The country had to change, the sons and daughters, the grandsons and granddaughters of those first generations immigrants had to grow up and flex their political muscles. And so any party in power over the last decade could have achieved this. The Tories happened to be in power. They took the opportunity (for which they get the credit).

    That said, Labour do seem to have been caught on the back foot -- I suspect the awkward tweets/sayings of Nadia Whitmore and Rupa Huq shows some of the real frustration of ethnic minority Labour MPs.

    I think the lack of female Labour PMs is more shameful and requires more explaining.

    There clearly have been excellent candidates, and the last Labour leadership election of 4 females plus dull SKS is not a good look.

    I am very far from convinced that the best out of Rebecca Long-Bailey, Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips, Emily Thornberry and SKS is SKS.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    A new dawn has broken, has it not?

    No.

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 54% (-1)
    CON: 21% (+2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    REF: 4% (-)

    via @RedfieldWilton, 23 Oct
    Things can only get better.
    That’s what Liz Truss’s supporters said.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Didn't do it for me. Tried hard to like it, but too may cliches and flat delivery. 4/10.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    What a month.

    If anybody down the pub says politics is boring, punch them.
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976
    I think we’re finally back into a phase of sensible politics, with two broadly competent leaders of both main parties. Thank god
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,399

    The relief we should all feel after hearing a true Prime Ministerial speech to the nation

    I wish him well and ask the question is it to early to say we have seen a new Blair

    Steady on Big G!
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    What a month.

    If anybody down the pub says politics is boring, punch them.

    Then by the time you’ve finished your community service there’ll be a new PM.
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    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Sorry, Jabob. It's bust for you.

    EXC: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he no longer believes Rishi Sunak is a "socialist" and would now serve in his Cabinet if asked.

    He urges Tory unity and warns party faces wipeout at the next GE.

    Tells @Telegraph he is proud of achievements as Business Secretary

    https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1584858009192525824
This discussion has been closed.