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Polling matters – politicalbetting.com

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    edited October 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it really only 6 years since Cameron was PM?

    Yes (well, six years five months).

    He promised us stability and strong government.

    Bloody good job we didn't choose chaos with Ed Miliband...
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,720
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Larry the Cat is now officially running the country for about 20 minutes.

    Nah, he’s getting Ready For Rishi.


    Isn’t that a tad Racialist?
    Also wrong as Sunak is a Hindu not a Sikh.
    Don't some Hindu monks wear them?
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rishi Sunak botched Covid response when chancellor, says health expert Devi Sridhar

    A leading public health expert has accused the multimillionaire Rishi Sunak of being out of touch with the challenges of daily life and plotting to “let Covid rip” during the pandemic. Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, said the incoming prime minister “handled Covid badly” from a public health perspective when he was chancellor. The academic, a member of Nicola Sturgeon’s Covid-19 advisory group, said Sunak lives “in a bubble of extreme wealth” making it “hard to relate the challenges of daily life including access to healthcare”." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-botched-covid-response-when-chancellor-says-health-expert-devi-sridhar-wzbkpbfbv

    I think actually Sunak's instincts were right about covid.
    The point about his wealth is irrelevant. But disagree - Sunak botched several things on COVID.

    He got it utterly wrong on eat out to help out (subsidizing COVID spread just before we had to go back into lockdown), he argued against the 2nd lockdown in September - mistakenly thinking it would harm the economy when of course the later longer lockdown was even worse, and (incredibly) he was apparently slow to give the budget for COVID vaccines: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/dame-kate-bingham-rishi-sunak-didnt-even-know-what-vaccine-taskforce/
    That is true -- did not Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford get things wrong about COVID too ?

    But, at least the Tories and the SNP are allowing a public inquiry into their actions.

    There is one country that is not getting a public inquiry into its Government's actions .... shamefully Llafur.
    Agreed both Scotland & Wales got things wrong. I cut them more slack in general, perhaps partially because I am biased, but also because I think they have less power vs. politicians in Westminster. Wales holding their own inquiry makes sense to me and I personally think less of Drakeford for saying "the world has moved on".
  • Options
    Sky has now settled on the new PM. Betfair has not.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,140
    RobD said:

    Rigby says Sunak is about to have his audience with the Queen.

    Interesting.

    CIII has decided it is easier to delegate to deceased relatives? Do you get to choose which?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,981
    ....
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited October 2022

    On a brighter note, WhatsApp is down. That will slow the Tory feuding :smiley:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63383957

    All the cool kids and Tories use Signal.
    Is that the Trumpian one?

    It is hard to keep track of them all, especially since I find them both poisonous and boring. My Twitter account got used for about a day. These days I just stick to email or, occasionally FB if I can be bothered logging in to it.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    edited October 2022
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Larry the Cat is now officially running the country for about 20 minutes.

    Nah, he’s getting Ready For Rishi.


    Isn’t that a tad Racialist?
    Also wrong as Sunak is a Hindu not a Sikh.
    Don't some Hindu monks wear them?
    AIUI they are worn as protective headgear by Hindus in some parts of India eg Rajasthan, but not for religious reasons.

    Could be wrong. My knowledge of Hinduism isn't all it might be and it's a complex subject.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,432
    RobD said:

    Rigby says Sunak is about to have his audience with the Queen.

    Interesting.

    She's reincarnated?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    RobD said:

    Rigby says Sunak is about to have his audience with the Queen.

    Interesting.

    Ouija board out....
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    They're meeting in the toilet?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,720
    Selebian said:

    RobD said:

    Rigby says Sunak is about to have his audience with the Queen.

    Interesting.

    She's reincarnated?
    Given Hindu belief, I did look twice at the remark by Ms Rigby - but assume it's just habit. It's certainly not the only instance in recent days, tbf.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,938

    Sky has now settled on the new PM. Betfair has not.

    Ladbrokes yet to settle on Truss exit dates
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,938
    Of course Sunak needs a different lectern.

    It needs to be much shorter...
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Rishi Sunak botched Covid response when chancellor, says health expert Devi Sridhar

    A leading public health expert has accused the multimillionaire Rishi Sunak of being out of touch with the challenges of daily life and plotting to “let Covid rip” during the pandemic. Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, said the incoming prime minister “handled Covid badly” from a public health perspective when he was chancellor. The academic, a member of Nicola Sturgeon’s Covid-19 advisory group, said Sunak lives “in a bubble of extreme wealth” making it “hard to relate the challenges of daily life including access to healthcare”." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-botched-covid-response-when-chancellor-says-health-expert-devi-sridhar-wzbkpbfbv

    I think actually Sunak's instincts were right about covid.
    The point about his wealth is irrelevant. But disagree - Sunak botched several things on COVID.

    He got it utterly wrong on eat out to help out (subsidizing COVID spread just before we had to go back into lockdown), he argued against the 2nd lockdown in September - mistakenly thinking it would harm the economy when of course the later longer lockdown was even worse, and (incredibly) he was apparently slow to give the budget for COVID vaccines: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/dame-kate-bingham-rishi-sunak-didnt-even-know-what-vaccine-taskforce/
    That is true -- did not Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford get things wrong about COVID too ?

    But, at least the Tories and the SNP are allowing a public inquiry into their actions.

    There is one country that is not getting a public inquiry into its Government's actions .... shamefully Llafur.
    Agreed both Scotland & Wales got things wrong. I cut them more slack in general, perhaps partially because I am biased, but also because I think they have less power vs. politicians in Westminster. Wales holding their own inquiry makes sense to me and I personally think less of Drakeford for saying "the world has moved on".
    I largely agree ...

    The Drake is losing his touch.

    He has just got into a pointless public argument with a staunchly Labour-supporting Valleys family about ambulance waiting times.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    It'll make for strange archival viewing of the Queen's funeral to see Liz Truss there as PM, future humans will be left wondering 'who's that?'

    https://twitter.com/robdunsmore/status/1584843157128331266?s=46&t=Pwf5jPCZ4PXhN84gkKI1WA

    Might assume that she was brought in specially for the purpose?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_mourning
    In 500 years time there will be a curious custom during a change in the British monarch whereby a “Lord High Truss” is appointed to oversee the funeral and accession, who then leaves office seven weeks later. No-one is certain of the origins of this peculiar tradition, it having been lost to time.
    ”British”? Post apocalypse, England will be lucky if she reachieves the unity of the Heptarchy by 2522.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,938
    Mel Stride has emailed MPs to tell them there will not be a throng of MPs and advisers to clap Rishi Sunak in this morning. No10 wants to keep a solemn mood that reflects the economic situation.

    Side note: This very much suggests Stride is the Chief Whip.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/25/rishi-sunak-latest-news-speech-king-charles-prime-minister/
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,586
    Scott_xP said:

    Of course Sunak needs a different lectern.

    It needs to be much shorter...

    Not if he stands on the prostrate Raab.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Called it last night - Raab went big for Rishi early on, and has deputised for Boris, it's a no brainer to give him a big office.

    Edit: A no brainer politically that is, not on the basis he'd be good for it.
    The phrases "no brainer" and "Raab" are perfectly matched IMNSHO
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,452
    Jenga lectern gone
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,105
    RobD said:

    Rigby says Sunak is about to have his audience with the Queen.

    Interesting.

    Perhaps the whole Truss era was just a nightmare?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    edited October 2022
    The new podoum is here. All hail the podium
    Edit - lectern. Sigh.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,140
    Scott_xP said:

    Mel Stride has emailed MPs to tell them there will not be a throng of MPs and advisers to clap Rishi Sunak in this morning. No10 wants to keep a solemn mood that reflects the economic situation.

    Side note: This very much suggests Stride is the Chief Whip.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/25/rishi-sunak-latest-news-speech-king-charles-prime-minister/

    Will he still be Chair of the Treasury Select Committee? That would make him exceptionally powerful.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,720
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    I do love polling sometimes. Just did a survey, which opened asking if I'd heard of various sporting bodies (FA, ECB etc), and didn't select the options about horses. It then asks something like 'Just to check, have you heard of the Jockey Club?', and I select no, and then it is asking about my attitudes to horseracing. I can almost feel the disappointment in the survey that I have heard nothing, know nothing, and care nothing about horse racing (and cannot suggest how it might grab my interest).

    Horses are nice enough animals, but I have never understood the fascination some people have with them. There is a whole subset of young women that seem to have a horse obsession bordering on mania!
    £££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££££
    Veblen Theorem of conspicuous consumption - have a pony-mad daughter.

    It's the proles who get the Vimes Theorem.
    Talking about the latter, just noticed this. Cheap food - inflation now 17% fide ONS. A canary in the economic policy mine looking a bit Norwegian Blue when it comes to benefits uprating.

    "The overall price of budget food items in supermarkets soared by 17% in the year to the end of September, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This was nearly double the 9% annual increase measured in the 12 months to April.

    The figures highlight how the poorer families are bearing the brunt of the cost of living crisis, with prices for some budget grocery items soaring far ahead of the official 10.1% rate of inflation, which is at a 40-year high."
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    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Larry the Cat is now officially running the country for about 20 minutes.

    Nah, he’s getting Ready For Rishi.


    Isn’t that a tad Racialist?
    Also wrong as Sunak is a Hindu not a Sikh.
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Larry the Cat is now officially running the country for about 20 minutes.

    Nah, he’s getting Ready For Rishi.


    Isn’t that a tad Racialist?
    Also wrong as Sunak is a Hindu not a Sikh.
    He’s a cat, he doesn’t know the difference.
    Now you are being cattist.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,981
    Are we really doing racist jokes with cats in turbans?

    FFS.
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    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Apparently someone has listed 10 Downing Street on booking.com as Airbnb-style accommodation for short stays.

    http://twitter.com/albiondumsday/status/1584849535305670658
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,452

    RobD said:

    Rigby says Sunak is about to have his audience with the Queen.

    Interesting.

    Perhaps the whole Truss era was just a nightmare?
    One day soon I am convinced I am going to wake up on 24 June 2016, we will just have voted to remain in the EU, Cameron is about to give his valedictory speech and people are noting this undermines Boris’ leadership ambitions, potentially fatally.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    RobD said:

    Rigby says Sunak is about to have his audience with the Queen.

    Interesting.

    Perhaps the whole Truss era was just a nightmare?
    No perhaps about it.
  • Options

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    Called it.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,720

    Off-topic: Dual Screen phones for work, yes or no? An old friend was waving his (Surface Duo) at me at the weekend. Looked interesting, can pick one up for a song, curious if anyone uses such a thing already and it offers tangible benefits over a single screen device?

    You can watch PB atd the same time as a work zoom meeting?
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    I'm struggling to understand the idea that Russia's economic contraction will only be 3% of GDP. If it is based on the very limited information they are providing us with that seems foolish. Why on earth would you trust any of the figures currently emanating from Moscow. And even if they are accurate surely the figures they are withholding are going to be much more damning about their position.

    Over a million have left the country. Many of those among the best paid and most educated section of the population. The mobilisation means taking a further half million out of the economy. Rumours of people going into hiding to avoid being conscripted. Their prisons are full to bursting. Their workforce mus now be down 1.5 million. Foreign companies have left Russia en masse. They are extremely reliant on western tech and do not have much home-grown industry. They cannot access western capital. What they can do is export their raw materials. Oil did rise sharply at the start of the war but has come down again and Russia is not selling it at full price with the massive logistical difficulties of getting it to India and China. Gas prices surged, maybe they made massive sums from European countries wanting to replenish their stocks in time for winter?

    I maintain my opinion that the medium to long term forecast for the Russian economy seems woeful. Even their hydrocarbon industry will struggle without western expertise and they won't have gas revenues. But the idea they have bought time this year also feels sceptical to me. They may have dug into their remaining accessible foreign reserves but that won't be sustainable. Still even if it is only 3%, given the amount of GDP now being spent on the war effort I suppose it will feel considerably worse for most Russians.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,432

    The new podoum is here. All hail the podium
    Edit - lectern. Sigh.

    It's Truss's top on a new stick?

    Not the clean break I was looking for :disappointed: Still, cheaper, I guess... :smiley:
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,233
    Imagining the advice to Sunak: "Don't bow too low, or the King won't be able to see you."
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926

    Selebian said:

    Fun fact - each PM gets their own lectern…

    What do we think @RishiSunak will look like?


    https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1584813870639878144

    Cameron's - certain aesthetic, but lacks substance in the middle
    May's - straight and upstanding, but it doesn't look particularly strong or stable
    Johnson's - wide boy
    Truss's - Twisted, chaotic
    Sunak's - I think I'd use some scaffolding poles and go for 'rebuilding'
    Anyone know how these lecterns are done?

    What's the timeframe for designing and making them, and how much (if any) input does the incoming PM get?

    Is there a cupboard with half a dozen lecterns ready to go?

    Is it like wands in Harry Potter, and the lectern somehow chooses the Prime Minister?
    Bizarre, Cameron's looked perfectly good to me.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited October 2022

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    Called it.
    its the leftie version of the classic "your not like those other foreigners, your one of the good bad ones" racist trope.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    Cant help themselves. And wont be able to help themselves saying 'she shouldnt have said it but.......'
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    It just shows how brilliant Nicola Sturgeon is:

    "Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."

    "That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"

    And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Pulpstar said:

    Selebian said:

    Fun fact - each PM gets their own lectern…

    What do we think @RishiSunak will look like?


    https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1584813870639878144

    Cameron's - certain aesthetic, but lacks substance in the middle
    May's - straight and upstanding, but it doesn't look particularly strong or stable
    Johnson's - wide boy
    Truss's - Twisted, chaotic
    Sunak's - I think I'd use some scaffolding poles and go for 'rebuilding'
    Anyone know how these lecterns are done?

    What's the timeframe for designing and making them, and how much (if any) input does the incoming PM get?

    Is there a cupboard with half a dozen lecterns ready to go?

    Is it like wands in Harry Potter, and the lectern somehow chooses the Prime Minister?
    Bizarre, Cameron's looked perfectly good to me.
    I agree with this post yesterday:

    Doubtless tomorrow we are to be subjected yet again to that ghastly lectern in Downing St as Truss departs and Sunak returns from the Palace. I don't understand why they now do this - it is a pretty recent thing. I particularly fail to see why Truss chose to face such a public humiliation at that lectern last Thurday. Until recently departing PMs simply issued a press statement - or said nothing at all. Wilson issued a statement announcing his retirement in mid-March 1976 but made no comments as he left for the Palace three weeks later. Callaghan said nothing in 1979 as he left No 10 to resign . In 1990 Thatcher announced her decision to withdraw from the Leadership ballot via a press statement and only addressed the cameras a week later as she departed for the last time.
    The arrival of a new PM was often followed by a broadcast to the nation - which is what Macmillan did in 1957, Alec Douglas-Home in 1963 and Wilson in 1964. In 1970 Ted Heath did give a statement from the steps of No 10 - but said nothing at all on leaving in March 1974. When Wilson returned there, he uttered just a few words before going inside. Callaghan said nothing on arriving at No 10 but did broadcast to the nation. Thatcher made her St Francis of Assisi remarks in May 1979.
    Others may see it differently, but to me the lectern comes across as somewhat false and contrived.

  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,340
    edited October 2022

    Selebian said:

    Fun fact - each PM gets their own lectern…

    What do we think @RishiSunak will look like?


    https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1584813870639878144

    Cameron's - certain aesthetic, but lacks substance in the middle
    May's - straight and upstanding, but it doesn't look particularly strong or stable
    Johnson's - wide boy
    Truss's - Twisted, chaotic
    Sunak's - I think I'd use some scaffolding poles and go for 'rebuilding'
    Anyone know how these lecterns are done?

    What's the timeframe for designing and making them, and how much (if any) input does the incoming PM get?

    Is there a cupboard with half a dozen lecterns ready to go?

    Is it like wands in Harry Potter, and the lectern somehow chooses the Prime Minister?
    They had to change the system a few years back when Brown was convinced Blair would hand over his lectern but Blair was keen to keep hold of it.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,140

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    Called it.
    It's depressing isn't it. My nearly-9yo daughter has come to the conclusion that "there's no such thing as a good politician". We're helping her to a more nuanced view (and the importance of judging people on their actions, and ways you can get involved and effect change), but it is bloody hard work in the face of spectacular stupidity from all sides.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    edited October 2022

    RobD said:

    Rigby says Sunak is about to have his audience with the Queen.

    Interesting.

    Perhaps the whole Truss era was just a nightmare?
    One day soon I am convinced I am going to wake up on 24 June 2016, we will just have voted to remain in the EU, Cameron is about to give his valedictory speech and people are noting this undermines Boris’ leadership ambitions, potentially fatally.
    Except that was probably the Johnson calculation - a Remain win with himself positioned as the eurosceptic 'heart over head' candidate (v Osborne) in the 2018 contest to succeed Cameron.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    Called it.
    It will be why labour hasn't had a female leader. None of their candidates would be a win for female representation.....
  • Options

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    Called it.
    It will be why labour hasn't had a female leader. None of their candidates would be a win for female representation.....
    That's if they can answer what one is ;-)
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,250
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Larry the Cat is now officially running the country for about 20 minutes.

    Nah, he’s getting Ready For Rishi.


    Isn’t that a tad Racialist?
    Also wrong as Sunak is a Hindu not a Sikh.
    Don't some Hindu monks wear them?
    AIUI they are worn as protective headgear by Hindus in some parts of India eg Rajasthan, but not for religious reasons.

    Could be wrong. My knowledge of Hinduism isn't all it might be and it's a complex subject.
    Lots of people wear them for various reasons. Hindu nationalist arsehole Modi tends to wear one on all kinds of special occasions - often one designed specially.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    Any chance of Boris racing to the Palace in a separate car?
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,340

    I'm struggling to understand the idea that Russia's economic contraction will only be 3% of GDP. If it is based on the very limited information they are providing us with that seems foolish. Why on earth would you trust any of the figures currently emanating from Moscow. And even if they are accurate surely the figures they are withholding are going to be much more damning about their position.

    Over a million have left the country. Many of those among the best paid and most educated section of the population. The mobilisation means taking a further half million out of the economy. Rumours of people going into hiding to avoid being conscripted. Their prisons are full to bursting. Their workforce mus now be down 1.5 million. Foreign companies have left Russia en masse. They are extremely reliant on western tech and do not have much home-grown industry. They cannot access western capital. What they can do is export their raw materials. Oil did rise sharply at the start of the war but has come down again and Russia is not selling it at full price with the massive logistical difficulties of getting it to India and China. Gas prices surged, maybe they made massive sums from European countries wanting to replenish their stocks in time for winter?

    I maintain my opinion that the medium to long term forecast for the Russian economy seems woeful. Even their hydrocarbon industry will struggle without western expertise and they won't have gas revenues. But the idea they have bought time this year also feels sceptical to me. They may have dug into their remaining accessible foreign reserves but that won't be sustainable. Still even if it is only 3%, given the amount of GDP now being spent on the war effort I suppose it will feel considerably worse for most Russians.

    I think you covered it in the first few sentences. Russian figures will be tosh. See also all other non-democracies and some democracies without proper independent stats and audit bodies.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231

    Any chance of Boris racing to the Palace in a separate car?

    Given his record, he'd have a major car crash en route and not arrive where he wanted.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    Mel Stride already messaging MPs on behalf of the Rishinator, chief whip?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115

    Selebian said:

    Fun fact - each PM gets their own lectern…

    What do we think @RishiSunak will look like?


    https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1584813870639878144

    Cameron's - certain aesthetic, but lacks substance in the middle
    May's - straight and upstanding, but it doesn't look particularly strong or stable
    Johnson's - wide boy
    Truss's - Twisted, chaotic
    Sunak's - I think I'd use some scaffolding poles and go for 'rebuilding'
    Anyone know how these lecterns are done?

    What's the timeframe for designing and making them, and how much (if any) input does the incoming PM get?

    Is there a cupboard with half a dozen lecterns ready to go?

    Is it like wands in Harry Potter, and the lectern somehow chooses the Prime Minister?
    Couldn't we just use the sorting hat for PMs?
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited October 2022
    What will you most remember of the Truss Era?

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1584844192244961280?s=46&t=m8HANJCaY0BOz6oI4Mag3g

    - I shall remember that it is possible to earn £115,000 for life after failing so badly at a job that you get kicked out after just 6 weeks.

    - 44 days is an era, but we can't get #indyref2 8 years on.

    - That if I to choose a ‘Prime Minister’ for a specialist subject on Mastermind, it’s Truss
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934

    Any chance of Boris racing to the Palace in a separate car?

    He will be Over Water by now
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,233

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    It just shows how brilliant Nicola Sturgeon is:

    "Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."

    "That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"

    And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
    It shouldn't need brilliance to do it. Any progress is welcome, still lots left to do, should be a standard response any opposition is ready with in case of good news.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,900
    Has Truss left the palace yet?!

    King William V incoming
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,432

    Selebian said:

    Fun fact - each PM gets their own lectern…

    What do we think @RishiSunak will look like?


    https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1584813870639878144

    Cameron's - certain aesthetic, but lacks substance in the middle
    May's - straight and upstanding, but it doesn't look particularly strong or stable
    Johnson's - wide boy
    Truss's - Twisted, chaotic
    Sunak's - I think I'd use some scaffolding poles and go for 'rebuilding'
    Anyone know how these lecterns are done?

    What's the timeframe for designing and making them, and how much (if any) input does the incoming PM get?

    Is there a cupboard with half a dozen lecterns ready to go?

    Is it like wands in Harry Potter, and the lectern somehow chooses the Prime Minister?
    And then stays loyal to that Prime Minister, which is why they need a new one each time? Lest the lectern sabotage the speeches of the new PM?
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    I think my Uber was overtaken by Rishi’s motorcade.
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    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,157
    Cummings has gone very quiet on Twitter about UK politics.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    biggles said:

    I'm struggling to understand the idea that Russia's economic contraction will only be 3% of GDP. If it is based on the very limited information they are providing us with that seems foolish. Why on earth would you trust any of the figures currently emanating from Moscow. And even if they are accurate surely the figures they are withholding are going to be much more damning about their position.

    Over a million have left the country. Many of those among the best paid and most educated section of the population. The mobilisation means taking a further half million out of the economy. Rumours of people going into hiding to avoid being conscripted. Their prisons are full to bursting. Their workforce mus now be down 1.5 million. Foreign companies have left Russia en masse. They are extremely reliant on western tech and do not have much home-grown industry. They cannot access western capital. What they can do is export their raw materials. Oil did rise sharply at the start of the war but has come down again and Russia is not selling it at full price with the massive logistical difficulties of getting it to India and China. Gas prices surged, maybe they made massive sums from European countries wanting to replenish their stocks in time for winter?

    I maintain my opinion that the medium to long term forecast for the Russian economy seems woeful. Even their hydrocarbon industry will struggle without western expertise and they won't have gas revenues. But the idea they have bought time this year also feels sceptical to me. They may have dug into their remaining accessible foreign reserves but that won't be sustainable. Still even if it is only 3%, given the amount of GDP now being spent on the war effort I suppose it will feel considerably worse for most Russians.

    I think you covered it in the first few sentences. Russian figures will be tosh. See also all other non-democracies and some democracies without proper independent stats and audit bodies.
    The IMF was doing the estimate though. They couldn't be so naive to rely on selective figures from Russia?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,720
    edited October 2022

    What will you most remember of the Truss Era?

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1584844192244961280?s=46&t=m8HANJCaY0BOz6oI4Mag3g

    - I shall remember that it is possible to earn £115,000 for life after failing so badly at a job that you get kicked out after just 6 weeks.

    - 44 days is an era, but we can't get #indyref2 8 years on.

    - That if I to choose a ‘Prime Minister’ for a specialist subject on Mastermind, it’s Truss

    This is also rather good - as are his following remarks.

    "Resignation statements, abbreviated.
    Cameron: Oops.
    May: I'm sorry.
    Johnson: You bastards.
    Truss: I was right."



    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1584837405864910848?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1584837405864910848|twgr^c1cf368418fa3c93850101cb832c4e5698c8725c|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/oct/25/uk-politics-live-sunak-to-meet-king-charles-and-give-first-address-to-the-nation-as-pm
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231

    Cummings has gone very quiet on Twitter about UK politics.

    Shame about the last five words.

    The opening five had me quite hopeful.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,938
    ...
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Selebian said:

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    It just shows how brilliant Nicola Sturgeon is:

    "Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."

    "That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"

    And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
    I think it shows more how crap that Labour MP is. Sturgeon's approach should be the response of any sane, decent person.
    I agree it is obvious to most of us -- but Sturgeon just does it brilliantly.

    "It certainly makes this a special Diwali" is just a wonderful touch.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046

    What will you most remember of the Truss Era?

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1584844192244961280?s=46&t=m8HANJCaY0BOz6oI4Mag3g

    - I shall remember that it is possible to earn £115,000 for life after failing so badly at a job that you get kicked out after just 6 weeks.

    - 44 days is an era, but we can't get #indyref2 8 years on.

    - That if I to choose a ‘Prime Minister’ for a specialist subject on Mastermind, it’s Truss

    Those are office expenses I believe not earnings.
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    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,340

    biggles said:

    I'm struggling to understand the idea that Russia's economic contraction will only be 3% of GDP. If it is based on the very limited information they are providing us with that seems foolish. Why on earth would you trust any of the figures currently emanating from Moscow. And even if they are accurate surely the figures they are withholding are going to be much more damning about their position.

    Over a million have left the country. Many of those among the best paid and most educated section of the population. The mobilisation means taking a further half million out of the economy. Rumours of people going into hiding to avoid being conscripted. Their prisons are full to bursting. Their workforce mus now be down 1.5 million. Foreign companies have left Russia en masse. They are extremely reliant on western tech and do not have much home-grown industry. They cannot access western capital. What they can do is export their raw materials. Oil did rise sharply at the start of the war but has come down again and Russia is not selling it at full price with the massive logistical difficulties of getting it to India and China. Gas prices surged, maybe they made massive sums from European countries wanting to replenish their stocks in time for winter?

    I maintain my opinion that the medium to long term forecast for the Russian economy seems woeful. Even their hydrocarbon industry will struggle without western expertise and they won't have gas revenues. But the idea they have bought time this year also feels sceptical to me. They may have dug into their remaining accessible foreign reserves but that won't be sustainable. Still even if it is only 3%, given the amount of GDP now being spent on the war effort I suppose it will feel considerably worse for most Russians.

    I think you covered it in the first few sentences. Russian figures will be tosh. See also all other non-democracies and some democracies without proper independent stats and audit bodies.
    The IMF was doing the estimate though. They couldn't be so naive to rely on selective figures from Russia?
    In the end, what other figures are there?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    edited October 2022
    Was on the phone to Pa Woolie when the lectern arrived

    Me - its a big old lump of wood perpendicular to another big old lump of wood. No fancy stuff. Its very woody
    Dad - yeah, im not voting for them but i like the sound of that.

    The tectonic plates are shifting
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,150
     
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    Roger said:

    As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.

    You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.


    https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1584802272638562305

    Jewish Home Secretary?
    Shapps Jewish family according to Wikipedia.

    I'm generally surprised when someone is labelled Jewish and also wonder why we care. Only really relevant in the above statement if he's a follower of Judaism, I'd have thought.

    How about a Buddhist at Defence?
    On Shapps, I do wonder whether there was some misunderstanding. Truss in crisis mode, government falling around her. Someone says "Shapps is at the door, what shall we do with him?" and Truss says "Oh Gawd, send him home!"
    NF Simpson, 'A resounding tinkle' 1958
    Act 1, Scene 1

        A knock
    Mrs Paradock    There's somebody at the door wanting you to form a government
    Bro Paracock looks at her in astonishment. Several seconds elapse.
    Mr Paradock      What does he look like?
    Mrs Paradock     He says he's working through the street directory.



  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    ydoethur said:

    Any chance of Boris racing to the Palace in a separate car?

    Given his record, he'd have a major car crash en route and not arrive where he wanted.
    Knowing his supporters they'd probably start Diana type conspiracies.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231

    ydoethur said:

    Any chance of Boris racing to the Palace in a separate car?

    Given his record, he'd have a major car crash en route and not arrive where he wanted.
    Knowing his supporters they'd probably start Diana type conspiracies.
    It was the Express pace that did for him.

    I thank you.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,938
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    Photos of the Chuck n Rishi love in released
    No awkward curtsying
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    biggles said:

    biggles said:

    I'm struggling to understand the idea that Russia's economic contraction will only be 3% of GDP. If it is based on the very limited information they are providing us with that seems foolish. Why on earth would you trust any of the figures currently emanating from Moscow. And even if they are accurate surely the figures they are withholding are going to be much more damning about their position.

    Over a million have left the country. Many of those among the best paid and most educated section of the population. The mobilisation means taking a further half million out of the economy. Rumours of people going into hiding to avoid being conscripted. Their prisons are full to bursting. Their workforce mus now be down 1.5 million. Foreign companies have left Russia en masse. They are extremely reliant on western tech and do not have much home-grown industry. They cannot access western capital. What they can do is export their raw materials. Oil did rise sharply at the start of the war but has come down again and Russia is not selling it at full price with the massive logistical difficulties of getting it to India and China. Gas prices surged, maybe they made massive sums from European countries wanting to replenish their stocks in time for winter?

    I maintain my opinion that the medium to long term forecast for the Russian economy seems woeful. Even their hydrocarbon industry will struggle without western expertise and they won't have gas revenues. But the idea they have bought time this year also feels sceptical to me. They may have dug into their remaining accessible foreign reserves but that won't be sustainable. Still even if it is only 3%, given the amount of GDP now being spent on the war effort I suppose it will feel considerably worse for most Russians.

    I think you covered it in the first few sentences. Russian figures will be tosh. See also all other non-democracies and some democracies without proper independent stats and audit bodies.
    The IMF was doing the estimate though. They couldn't be so naive to rely on selective figures from Russia?
    In the end, what other figures are there?
    But it's pointless using the Russian figures. You might as well not bother.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    Ah, we have a photo.

    Charles doesn't look much taller than Sunak.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,737
    Scott_xP said:
    None of that oath taking or swearing on a holy book stuff, just 'Shake this hand' and you've got the gig.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,452
    No “Liz resigning” photo? They’re trying to forget about it already?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    NEW: Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister.

    pictures just released show him meeting the King. Sunak becomes Charles’ second prime minister, of a reign itself not even two months old.




    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1584856028255920128
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Larry the Cat is now officially running the country for about 20 minutes.

    Nah, he’s getting Ready For Rishi.


    Isn’t that a tad Racialist?
    Also wrong as Sunak is a Hindu not a Sikh.
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Larry the Cat is now officially running the country for about 20 minutes.

    Nah, he’s getting Ready For Rishi.


    Isn’t that a tad Racialist?
    Also wrong as Sunak is a Hindu not a Sikh.
    He’s a cat, he doesn’t know the difference.
    So Larry The Cat is actually a Racialist?

    Now it all makes sense.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    None of that oath taking or swearing on a holy book stuff, just 'Shake this hand' and you've got the gig.
    He has to kneel and kiss the hand, but they don't photograph that because it's a bit naff.

    That's a rather nice blue pinstripe His Maj is wearing.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216

    I think my Uber was overtaken by Rishi’s motorcade.

    A metaphor for Truss's entire administration?

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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,452
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    None of that oath taking or swearing on a holy book stuff, just 'Shake this hand' and you've got the gig.
    He has to kneel and kiss the hand, but they don't photograph that because it's a bit naff.
    I think (but happy to be corrected) that happens at the next Privy Council meeting, rather than the appointment.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    RobD said:

    Rigby says Sunak is about to have his audience with the Queen.

    Interesting.

    She's reincarnated?
    Given Hindu belief, I did look twice at the remark by Ms Rigby - but assume it's just habit. It's certainly not the only instance in recent days, tbf.
    That Which Is Dead Can Never Die
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,737
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    None of that oath taking or swearing on a holy book stuff, just 'Shake this hand' and you've got the gig.
    He has to kneel and kiss the hand, but they don't photograph that because it's a bit naff.
    I'm sure they've claimed in the past that the 'kiss hands' thing is no longer actually done, alas.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934

    No “Liz resigning” photo? They’re trying to forget about it already?

    I dont think there ever is
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    None of that oath taking or swearing on a holy book stuff, just 'Shake this hand' and you've got the gig.
    Properly British.

    “Are you up for running my Empire? Yes? Shake on it, then we can have lunch”.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,737
    So how ballsy is Rishi going to be at PMQs tomorrow? It'd be hilarious if he says, to the inevitable calls for a GE, that he would definitely win it but now is not the time, and in any case no one wants the chaos of a Labour government.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Selebian said:

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    It just shows how brilliant Nicola Sturgeon is:

    "Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."

    "That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"

    And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
    I think it shows more how crap that Labour MP is. Sturgeon's approach should be the response of any sane, decent person.
    Yes it's not difficult to celebrate that aspect whilst attacking his politics. Although sometimes these comments are provoked in response to partisan hyperbole. Eg, "Sunak's ascent to PM shows the Tories are champions of diversity and that racism is dead and buried in Britain in 2022".
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    None of that oath taking or swearing on a holy book stuff, just 'Shake this hand' and you've got the gig.
    Properly British.

    “Are you up for running my Empire? Yes? Shake on it, then we can have lunch”.
    Would you like a Highgrove stem ginger shortbread, Rishi?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,525

    Wrong kind of representation.....

    Outrage as Labour MP says Rishi Sunak as PM ‘isn’t a win for Asian representation’
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/24/outrage-labour-mp-says-rishi-sunak-pm-isnt-win-asian-representation/

    Cant help themselves. And wont be able to help themselves saying 'she shouldnt have said it but.......'
    TBF that's Nadia Whittome, so a daily faceplant is perhaps to be expected.

    The racist statements from Rupa Huq MP about Kwasi Kwarteng, which were a very similar claim of black people who she does not approve of not being real black people, were more concerning to me - firstly because it was done so casually, and secondly because she seemed to have no awareness whatsoever that there was an issue.

    I'd be expecting more occurrences until they adjust their values.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,607
    edited October 2022
    The $64,000 question is how close was Rishi Sunak to resigning his seat in parliament? I know he'd officially said that he wasn't going to, but in reality he may have been considering it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,737
    According to wiki the tallest PM was 6ft 4, Robert Arthur Talbot Gascoyne-Cecil, though No. 10 say it was Callaghan at 6ft 1.

    Truss was our least consequential PM, at 5ft 3, along with Spencer Perceval - not a good omen for the short Sunak.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Well, for all the economic turmoil and harm to the Conservatives, let us not forget that Truss did give me a 46 winner. So it's not all bad.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,607

    No “Liz resigning” photo? They’re trying to forget about it already?

    I dont think there ever is
    I remember a photo of Theresa May inside the palace when she was resigning.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,938
    EXC: Jacob Rees-Mogg says he no longer believes Rishi Sunak is a "socialist" and would now serve in his Cabinet if asked.

    He urges Tory unity and warns party faces wipeout at the next GE.

    Tells @Telegraph he is proud of achievements as Business Secretary
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/25/jacob-rees-mogg-rishi-sunak-socialist-cabinet/
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,231
    edited October 2022
    kle4 said:

    According to wiki the tallest PM was 6ft 4, Robert Arthur Talbot Gascoyne-Cecil, though No. 10 say it was Callaghan at 6ft 1.

    Truss was our least consequential PM, at 5ft 3, along with Spencer Perceval - not a good omen for the short Sunak.

    Possibly because Salisbury (to give him his title) was never First Lord of the Treasury? He was first Foreign Secretary and finally Lord Privy Seal.

    Also I think the last PM to have a beard - a rather imposing one.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. kle4, on the other hand, Basil II was, I think, fairly short, whereas the woeful Maximinus Thrax was something of a giant.
This discussion has been closed.