Under random thoughts, King Charles and Rishi Sunak being around at the same may be an interesting opportunity to continue reimagining the Commonwealth.
Labour need to be careful with their calls for an election. Starmer's message is basically: "Congratulations on becoming the first British Asian PM. I want you to be chucked out immediately before you've had chance to do anything."
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
I'm generally surprised when someone is labelled Jewish and also wonder why we care. Only really relevant in the above statement if he's a follower of Judaism, I'd have thought.
How about a Buddhist at Defence?
On Shapps, I do wonder whether there was some misunderstanding. Truss in crisis mode, government falling around her. Someone says "Shapps is at the door, what shall we do with him?" and Truss says "Oh Gawd, send him home!"
NF Simpson, 'A resounding tinkle' 1958 Act 1, Scene 1 … A knock Mrs Paradock There's somebody at the door wanting you to form a government Bro Paracock looks at her in astonishment. Several seconds elapse. Mr Paradock What does he look like? Mrs Paradock He says he's working through the street directory. …
I'd forgotten that. I directed a school production many years ago, to the bemusement of all concerned.
Labour need to be careful with their calls for an election. Starmer's message is basically: "Congratulations on becoming the first British Asian PM. I want you to be chucked out immediately before you've had chance to do anything."
Congratulations, Rishi Sunak, on becoming Prime Minister and making history as the first British Asian PM.
The Tories have crashed the economy, with low wages, high prices and a cost of living crisis.
The public needs a fresh start and a say on Britain’s future.
"...your government to be chucked out immediately because it's Tory - and look at the Tories' record, not just generally but in this parliament" is more like it.
Sunak depends on the parliamentary Conservative party - this is obvious.
Background for journalists about Rishi Sunak and Winchester College (part 2/2)
5. All of the boys attend classes in the same classrooms, but it's where they "live" that counts.
The 70 "scholars" sleep, dine, and study in the original 14th century buildings. These include "Hall", a room that would make many people think of the dining hall in the Harry Potter films. They also include the chapel, where scholars attend "Preces" (prayers) every evening.
The 600 "commoners", on the other hand, sleep, dine, and study in 19th and 20th century buildings. The idea that life in the "houses" has anything to do with William of Wykeham, the famous pimp, bishop, Chancellor of England, and Chaplain of the Order of the Garter, is rubbish. The notion is as fake as the Cambridge college where "dons" speak of "combining" in the "Old Library" and you find out it was built in the 1970s.
6. In both parts of the school, favoured boys are appointed as "prefects".
In the houses, these are divided into "house prefects" who have authority over the boys in their house (of around 60 boys) and "school prefects" (Co Praes) who have authority over all commoners. The top commoner prefect is called the Sen Co Prae. No commoner prefect has any authority over a boy who is in College.
College has its own prefects, the top one being called the Aulae Prae, or "Prefect of Hall". It's the Aulae Prae who does things like reading the address when a distinguished guest is welcomed ceremonially through the school gates (gates which of course lead into College, not into a house). It's the Aulae Prae who is basically the head boy of Winchester College, although technically he is joint head boy with the Sen Co Prae.
Rishi Sunak was the Sen Co Prae.
7. Boris Johnson was in the Eton equivalent of "College", having been a "King's Scholar". He was also "Captain of School". The Captain of School is the Eton equivalent of the Aulae Prae and is always in "College". In short: Johnson really was the head boy at Eton, whereas Sunak was only head commoner at Winchester, the top authority among the boys who belonged to the less academic part of the school, the 19th century part.
All sounds very relatable.
I was Deputy Head Boy at my local comp. Makes me about the same as Sunak, then?
Remarkable - there were 110 MPs prepared to have us go through the process of appointing a PM all over again in a few weeks, once the Committee of Privileges reported.
I think Sunak’s brief dawn of New Hope is going to unravel quite quickly to be honest.
The facts are It will still be turbulent economics and politics for the next two years whatever Sunak does. If he puts country ahead of party or party ahead of country it’s still a rocky road and one stonking Tory election defeat.
look at Today’s Telegraph front page - Sunak must put the country before the markets. What is the right thing for the country? Are you and the Telegraph columnist on the same front page as it were? You know It is not as straightforward as just give the dammed markets whatever they ask for to keep them pacified, and carry on business as usual? I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists.
BECAUSE. What do the markets want? The bond markets, seeing no plan for growth now, will perfectly fairly demand a greater return on their investment. Markets want an era of 2-4% interest rates and higher gilt markets than they have been for much of this century.
BUT From a political and avoiding election wipe out aspect, does the Tory government want the same as the markets, us paying them more because we can’t do growth?
The market opinion is government shouldn’t now continue to make everything worse by trying to keep gilts and interest rates down - it’s doom loop economics of low interest rates creates debt, coupled with a reluctance to tackle inflation because raising interest rates will make people poorer. You see? what you are calling good this afternoon after a Sunak’s pep talk, hunt and Sunak calming the markets after Truss instability, is itself the madness? We are in the belly of a beast that is dying, and government and BoE joint policy you are applauding as good, is what is killing us.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
There'd only be political pressure if his opponents were hovering up votes because they were committed to joining the EEA or whatever and he wasn't. Do you think the Tories might go down that route?
Labour need to be careful with their calls for an election. Starmer's message is basically: "Congratulations on becoming the first British Asian PM. I want you to be chucked out immediately before you've had chance to do anything."
Congratulations, Rishi Sunak, on becoming Prime Minister and making history as the first British Asian PM.
The Tories have crashed the economy, with low wages, high prices and a cost of living crisis.
The public needs a fresh start and a say on Britain’s future.
Why? They are offering Sunny Rick a chance to win his own mandate. If the country disagrees, then so be it.
Then they should have said that, rather than some weird staccato statements that don’t fit together.
I mean it’s a minor point in the general scheme of things but Labour have played an excellent messaging game in recent weeks and they must keep it up to stay ahead of the curve.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
There is absolutely no chance of Labour going anywhere near this before they re-enter government. Afterwards, they can start laying some groundwork perhaps.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
I expect a fix on alignment by the Sunak government. We can remove a multi-billion economic dampener by normalising our relations with our biggest trading partner. And as the alternative was a free trade and movement deal with India, its less toxic than it once was.
Noa Hoffman @hoffman_noa · 15m Source who worked on the Liz Truss leadership campaign: "Thank god the adults are back in the room. He absolutely smashed that."
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
Only one third of the electorate even want to be in the single market. Whatever these polls tell us, it's not an endorsement of the EU in reality, the public are expressing dissatisfaction far more than they are wanting to rejoin the EU as it is.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Some sort of associate membership without FoM (Of labour) might be the sweet spot for both parties. FoM cuts both ways.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
I expect a fix on alignment by the Sunak government. We can remove a multi-billion economic dampener by normalising our relations with our biggest trading partner. And as the alternative was a free trade and movement deal with India, its less toxic than it once was.
Regulatory alignment with the EU is an absolute no-brainer – Labour must be hoping that the siren voices of the swivel-eyed eurosceptics in the PCP prove enough to stop Rishi going for it: because it would be an easy policy win for a prospective Labour administration that, as you say, brings a huge economic benefit.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
There'd only be political pressure if his opponents were hovering up votes because they were committed to joining the EEA or whatever and he wasn't. Do you think the Tories might go down that route?
No, the pressure will come from within Labour circles. They are nearly all Remoaners. But they know Rejoin is too hard, for now, maybe for many decades. So they will say
“We might only have one term. We could be out again in 2029. The opportunity will be gone forever. Do it. Single Market!”
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
Only one third of the electorate even want to be in the single market. Whatever these polls tell us, it's not an endorsement of the EU in reality, the public are expressing dissatisfaction far more than they are wanting to rejoin the EU as it is.
To be fair, the original referendum result was also more about expressing dissatisfaction than a nuanced view on the pros and cons of EU membership
Labour need to be careful with their calls for an election. Starmer's message is basically: "Congratulations on becoming the first British Asian PM. I want you to be chucked out immediately before you've had chance to do anything."
Congratulations, Rishi Sunak, on becoming Prime Minister and making history as the first British Asian PM.
The Tories have crashed the economy, with low wages, high prices and a cost of living crisis.
The public needs a fresh start and a say on Britain’s future.
Why? They are offering Sunny Rick a chance to win his own mandate. If the country disagrees, then so be it.
Then they should have said that, rather than some weird staccato statements that don’t fit together.
I mean it’s a minor point in the general scheme of things but Labour have played an excellent messaging game in recent weeks and they must keep it up to stay ahead of the curve.
Fair enough, I take your point, but I guess it'll do for now. Royale can nuance at PMQs.
Listening to Faisal Islam on the BBC’s newscast - he had this fascinating and (I think) disturbing nugget;
“By all accounts (Sunak at the treasury during the pandemic) it was, not quite minority report, but like, big screens of all the policy options and all the other countries policy options… Germany had done this on their version of the furlough scheme, or France had done that, and he would want to make sure that he could say we’ve done the most in Europe … so you just had to look at what the G7 record was and then you could say, well, he’s going to go to 80%, because it’s higher than 77%”
It’s bullshit benchmarking. We handed him the grandkids credit card and he maxed out the credit limit to keep up with the Joneses?
That’s our bloody national debt that he’s ramped up, just so he can gain some stupid imaginary brexit points.
And now the country must pay for his idiocy, with higher mortgage rates, tax increases, and spending cuts?
I don’t buy the fiscally dry, sound money persona he’s trying to portray. It was him spaffing cash up the wall that is the primary reason we’re now in one hell of a fiscal mess.
Why should we suffer for his sins?
I’m amazed that the otherwise sensible, sound money PB tories are falling for his guff.
Politicians were ever thus.
Not everyone is as continent as Goderich (I think) who famously left more in the Treasury when he left than was there when he arrived..
That was the Earl of Bath with the 47-hour ‘short lived’ ministry:
‘He ran the wisest and most honest of administrations, having never transacted one rash thing: and what is more marvellous, having left as much money in the Treasury as he found in it.’
Rishi certainly has experience of short-living
This isn't a pop at you personally because a lot of people do this but is there any chance we could stop making comments about his height? It doesn't matter how short or tall he is.
It matters whether he's a competent Prime Minister.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
Labour would be mad to attempt it unless supported by the leader of the opposition, otherwise the opposition's promise to leave again would destroy any prospect of negotiating entry to the EU.
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
Only one third of the electorate even want to be in the single market. Whatever these polls tell us, it's not an endorsement of the EU in reality, the public are expressing dissatisfaction far more than they are wanting to rejoin the EU as it is.
To be fair, the original referendum result was also more about expressing dissatisfaction than a nuanced view on the pros and cons of EU membership
I agree, it's a shame the EU didn't budge a bit more, or we didn't have a fallback of something like leave the EU directly to EFTA/EEA.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
FoM will be desperately popular down here: the hospitality catering/sector is on its knees thanks to the exodus of jobbing French, Italian and eastern European waitresses who once provided a professional service at reasonable rates.
Some sort of benign visa system could provide a decent compromise and help plug the gap: because the demand to work in London, and learn English, is still there. It's just the current regulations militate against it.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
The problem is that joining the EU as it will be in 5/10 years will not resemble what people wish they could go back to. It will never happen. However we will obviously end up a key player in whatever the outer ring looks like and de facto leader of the non-EU states.
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
Only one third of the electorate even want to be in the single market. Whatever these polls tell us, it's not an endorsement of the EU in reality, the public are expressing dissatisfaction far more than they are wanting to rejoin the EU as it is.
To be fair, the original referendum result was also more about expressing dissatisfaction than a nuanced view on the pros and cons of EU membership
I agree, it's a shame the EU didn't budge a bit more, or we didn't have a fallback of something like leave the EU directly to EFTA/EEA.
We did have that fallback available, but May and the Brexiteers ruled it out.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Hello.
But ... hang on.
Is this a change of mind? You come across today as in favour of this but only a matter of weeks ago you were pouring invective on "remoaners" and wokerati for their evil plotting that would see us rejoin the EU.
I don't have a problem if you've changed your standpoint but have you?
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
It would need a number of years of it being the settled consensus before any government risked making the effort.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
The EU wouldn’t agree any time soon*, whilst there is a strong lobby against. It won’t want to disruption of us entering and then leaving again.
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
There'd only be political pressure if his opponents were hovering up votes because they were committed to joining the EEA or whatever and he wasn't. Do you think the Tories might go down that route?
No, the pressure will come from within Labour circles. They are nearly all Remoaners. But they know Rejoin is too hard, for now, maybe for many decades. So they will say
“We might only have one term. We could be out again in 2029. The opportunity will be gone forever. Do it. Single Market!”
It will chime with Starmer’s own instincts
Forget Starmer - Sunak is PM. Facing both an economy mired in almost / actual recession and a desperate need for tax revenues. Removing our trade barriers with Europe generates a whopping economic gain which means less cuts for services.
Listening to Faisal Islam on the BBC’s newscast - he had this fascinating and (I think) disturbing nugget;
“By all accounts (Sunak at the treasury during the pandemic) it was, not quite minority report, but like, big screens of all the policy options and all the other countries policy options… Germany had done this on their version of the furlough scheme, or France had done that, and he would want to make sure that he could say we’ve done the most in Europe … so you just had to look at what the G7 record was and then you could say, well, he’s going to go to 80%, because it’s higher than 77%”
It’s bullshit benchmarking. We handed him the grandkids credit card and he maxed out the credit limit to keep up with the Joneses?
That’s our bloody national debt that he’s ramped up, just so he can gain some stupid imaginary brexit points.
And now the country must pay for his idiocy, with higher mortgage rates, tax increases, and spending cuts?
I don’t buy the fiscally dry, sound money persona he’s trying to portray. It was him spaffing cash up the wall that is the primary reason we’re now in one hell of a fiscal mess.
Why should we suffer for his sins?
I’m amazed that the otherwise sensible, sound money PB tories are falling for his guff.
Politicians were ever thus.
Not everyone is as continent as Goderich (I think) who famously left more in the Treasury when he left than was there when he arrived..
That was the Earl of Bath with the 47-hour ‘short lived’ ministry:
‘He ran the wisest and most honest of administrations, having never transacted one rash thing: and what is more marvellous, having left as much money in the Treasury as he found in it.’
Rishi certainly has experience of short-living
This isn't a pop at you personally because a lot of people do this but is there any chance we could stop making comments about his height? It doesn't matter how short or tall he is.
It matters whether he's a competent Prime Minister.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
There'd only be political pressure if his opponents were hovering up votes because they were committed to joining the EEA or whatever and he wasn't. Do you think the Tories might go down that route?
No, the pressure will come from within Labour circles. They are nearly all Remoaners. But they know Rejoin is too hard, for now, maybe for many decades. So they will say
“We might only have one term. We could be out again in 2029. The opportunity will be gone forever. Do it. Single Market!”
It will chime with Starmer’s own instincts
Forget Starmer - Sunak is PM. Facing both an economy mired in almost / actual recession and a desperate need for tax revenues. Removing our trade barriers with Europe generates a whopping economic gain which means less cuts for services.
There's no economic gain, since there's been no economic gain from EU membership, and no economic loss from Brexit.
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
Only one third of the electorate even want to be in the single market. Whatever these polls tell us, it's not an endorsement of the EU in reality, the public are expressing dissatisfaction far more than they are wanting to rejoin the EU as it is.
To be fair, the original referendum result was also more about expressing dissatisfaction than a nuanced view on the pros and cons of EU membership
I agree, it's a shame the EU didn't budge a bit more, or we didn't have a fallback of something like leave the EU directly to EFTA/EEA.
We did have that fallback available, but May and the Brexiteers ruled it out.
Many of us who voted leave (especially those of us not driven by immigration) wanted and expected just that. Not because we felt the EEA/EFTA is the right long term home, but because it makes sense as a first step (and is enough to be getting on with) while you plan what comes next.
Rees-Mogg is pathetic. Goodbye. Good-riddance. Hope you lose your seat next time.
In 2017, after May screwed up her majority and Rees-Mogg was developing some 'Moggmentum', I said to a colleague I would pay £50 to see a General Election campaign between Mogg and Corbyn. It would've been a laugh a minute.
Not sure it would've been good for the country, but a laugh a minute indeed.....
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Some sort of associate membership without FoM (Of labour) might be the sweet spot for both parties. FoM cuts both ways.
And I'm not sure that it will be "without" FoM - I think both parties need the ability to live and work across the EU, and can sell whatever the fudge is as a passporting deal.
But I agree that it *will* be what happens; to get through the next 10 years, we all need the boost to the western economy that a deal between the EU and the UK would bring.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
There'd only be political pressure if his opponents were hovering up votes because they were committed to joining the EEA or whatever and he wasn't. Do you think the Tories might go down that route?
No, the pressure will come from within Labour circles. They are nearly all Remoaners. But they know Rejoin is too hard, for now, maybe for many decades. So they will say
“We might only have one term. We could be out again in 2029. The opportunity will be gone forever. Do it. Single Market!”
It will chime with Starmer’s own instincts
Forget Starmer - Sunak is PM. Facing both an economy mired in almost / actual recession and a desperate need for tax revenues. Removing our trade barriers with Europe generates a whopping economic gain which means less cuts for services.
There's no economic gain, since there's been no economic gain from EU membership, and no economic loss from Brexit.
Happy for you to continue repeating that mantra if it makes you feel better.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
There'd only be political pressure if his opponents were hovering up votes because they were committed to joining the EEA or whatever and he wasn't. Do you think the Tories might go down that route?
No, the pressure will come from within Labour circles. They are nearly all Remoaners. But they know Rejoin is too hard, for now, maybe for many decades. So they will say
“We might only have one term. We could be out again in 2029. The opportunity will be gone forever. Do it. Single Market!”
It will chime with Starmer’s own instincts
Forget Starmer - Sunak is PM. Facing both an economy mired in almost / actual recession and a desperate need for tax revenues. Removing our trade barriers with Europe generates a whopping economic gain which means less cuts for services.
There's no economic gain, since there's been no economic gain from EU membership, and no economic loss from Brexit.
There's arguments for not rejoining the EU but that's simply wrong.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Hello.
But ... hang on.
Is this a change of mind? You come across today as in favour of this but only a matter of weeks ago you were pouring invective on "remoaners" and wokerati for their evil plotting that would see us rejoin the EU.
I don't have a problem if you've changed your standpoint but have you?
I’m merely observing a big shift in sentiment: in that poll. And noting that it gives Starmer a window of opportunity to get closer to the EU (and solve the NI issue)
I detest the idea of Rejoining. I also think it is unlikely
I am maybe persuadable on the SM. I was always a soft Leaver. I wanted us to go to EEA/EFTA as a holding position with minimal damage, then plot our course further out, over time
We did have that fallback available, but May and the Brexiteers ruled it out.
True, but I meant Cameron's government should have had some plan if the referendum was lost. Not throw in the towel. You could say Leave should have had a plan, but they weren't in government. Essentially no planning followed by a partisan and dysfunctional parliamentary battle lead us to a pretty ropey deal.
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
Only one third of the electorate even want to be in the single market. Whatever these polls tell us, it's not an endorsement of the EU in reality, the public are expressing dissatisfaction far more than they are wanting to rejoin the EU as it is.
And less than 1/3 know what being in the single market means (on both the up- and the down- side). The players all argue from "belief" and "principle" and an ignorant electorate [again, I emphasise, on both sides of the argument] suits that kind polemic.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
To me, EFTA+ or EEA always felt right. Honours the referendum, wouldn't crash the economy (even more than its been crashed).
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Hello.
But ... hang on.
Is this a change of mind? You come across today as in favour of this but only a matter of weeks ago you were pouring invective on "remoaners" and wokerati for their evil plotting that would see us rejoin the EU.
I don't have a problem if you've changed your standpoint but have you?
I’m merely observing a big shift in sentiment: in that poll. And noting that it gives Starmer a window of opportunity to get closer to the EU (and solve the NI issue)
I detest the idea of Rejoining. I also think it is unlikely
I am maybe persuadable on the SM. I was always a soft Leaver. I wanted us to go to EEA/EFTA as a holding position with minimal damage, then plot our course further out, over time
Park remain as an option, drop "remoaner". What we have done has cost us billions. If Sunak wants to cut services less he can get those billions back into the economy by removing our self-imposed trading barriers. Not rejoin. Not even EEA yet. Just ending the petulant war and accepting we need them.
Mr. glw, the alternative prospectus (ie what would happen if we leave) should have been spelled out by the official Leave campaign, and that should have been a condition of the referendum. The blank space was a weird way to go because it was less fair to the electorate, and in Leave's interest, yet Cameron permitted it.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
Dubious, a more in depth Blair institute poll last week had just 23% of voters overall and only 37% of Labour voters wanting to rejoin the full EU. Only most LD voters even wanted to join the EEA, a closer relationship outside both was preferred.
Once it is explained to voters rejoining the EU means the Eurozone, Brussels and Frankfurt imposed austerity and free movement again the rejoin numbers collapse
Listening to Faisal Islam on the BBC’s newscast - he had this fascinating and (I think) disturbing nugget;
“By all accounts (Sunak at the treasury during the pandemic) it was, not quite minority report, but like, big screens of all the policy options and all the other countries policy options… Germany had done this on their version of the furlough scheme, or France had done that, and he would want to make sure that he could say we’ve done the most in Europe … so you just had to look at what the G7 record was and then you could say, well, he’s going to go to 80%, because it’s higher than 77%”
It’s bullshit benchmarking. We handed him the grandkids credit card and he maxed out the credit limit to keep up with the Joneses?
That’s our bloody national debt that he’s ramped up, just so he can gain some stupid imaginary brexit points.
And now the country must pay for his idiocy, with higher mortgage rates, tax increases, and spending cuts?
I don’t buy the fiscally dry, sound money persona he’s trying to portray. It was him spaffing cash up the wall that is the primary reason we’re now in one hell of a fiscal mess.
Why should we suffer for his sins?
I’m amazed that the otherwise sensible, sound money PB tories are falling for his guff.
Politicians were ever thus.
Not everyone is as continent as Goderich (I think) who famously left more in the Treasury when he left than was there when he arrived..
That was the Earl of Bath with the 47-hour ‘short lived’ ministry:
‘He ran the wisest and most honest of administrations, having never transacted one rash thing: and what is more marvellous, having left as much money in the Treasury as he found in it.’
Rishi certainly has experience of short-living
This isn't a pop at you personally because a lot of people do this but is there any chance we could stop making comments about his height? It doesn't matter how short or tall he is.
It matters whether he's a competent Prime Minister.
I'm the same height and do it. It's only funny if he's self conscious about it, which he shouldn't be given he's uber successful.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
"Not a new start" "Rishi Sunak has been at the heart of 12 years of Tory failure" "Labour have made specific proposals" "Green Energy Tax/Green Propserity Plan" "Tories going in the wrong direction" and repetition of "High Tax, Low Growth Tory Economy"
Actually telling us what they are rather than just telling us you have them would help!
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
I agree. I think it almost inevitable if labour win next time
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
Dubious, a more in depth Blair institute poll last week had just 23% of voters overall and only 37% of Labour voters wanting to rejoin the full EU. Only most LD voters even wanted to join the EEA, a closer relationship outside both was preferred.
Once it is explained to voters rejoining the EU means the Eurozone, Brussels and Frankfurt imposed austerity and free movement again the rejoin numbers collapse
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Some sort of associate membership without FoM (Of labour) might be the sweet spot for both parties. FoM cuts both ways.
And I'm not sure that it will be "without" FoM - I think both parties need the ability to live and work across the EU, and can sell whatever the fudge is as a passporting deal.
But I agree that it *will* be what happens; to get through the next 10 years, we all need the boost to the western economy that a deal between the EU and the UK would bring.
Facts matter. Being in the EU is worth a marginal gain in GDP in the same way as leaving it was worth a marginal loss (though lost Covid supply chain are localising a bit anyway). Neither is the cause of/answer to all of our problems.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
There'd only be political pressure if his opponents were hovering up votes because they were committed to joining the EEA or whatever and he wasn't. Do you think the Tories might go down that route?
No, the pressure will come from within Labour circles. They are nearly all Remoaners. But they know Rejoin is too hard, for now, maybe for many decades. So they will say
“We might only have one term. We could be out again in 2029. The opportunity will be gone forever. Do it. Single Market!”
It will chime with Starmer’s own instincts
Forget Starmer - Sunak is PM. Facing both an economy mired in almost / actual recession and a desperate need for tax revenues. Removing our trade barriers with Europe generates a whopping economic gain which means less cuts for services.
There's no economic gain, since there's been no economic gain from EU membership, and no economic loss from Brexit.
There's arguments for not rejoining the EU but that's simply wrong.
The UK grew more than the Eurozone in the 2010s "despite Brexit".
If its cost us billions, its a rounding error. Seems like hubris to assume we would have outgrown them by even more without any evidence for that.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
Hang on a moment. Is Dan mistaking poor attempts at Latin translation delivered in RP tones, for being civil? He is one of the rudest, most dismissive, divisive politicians of his generation.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
There'd only be political pressure if his opponents were hovering up votes because they were committed to joining the EEA or whatever and he wasn't. Do you think the Tories might go down that route?
No, the pressure will come from within Labour circles. They are nearly all Remoaners. But they know Rejoin is too hard, for now, maybe for many decades. So they will say
“We might only have one term. We could be out again in 2029. The opportunity will be gone forever. Do it. Single Market!”
It will chime with Starmer’s own instincts
Forget Starmer - Sunak is PM. Facing both an economy mired in almost / actual recession and a desperate need for tax revenues. Removing our trade barriers with Europe generates a whopping economic gain which means less cuts for services.
There's no economic gain, since there's been no economic gain from EU membership, and no economic loss from Brexit.
You don’t believe free trade brings economic gains? As a libertarian, you support barriers to trade???
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
Hang on a moment. Is Dan mistaking poor attempts at Latin translation delivered in RP tones, for being civil? He is one of the rudest, most dismissive, divisive politicians of his generation.
I've never noticed him being rude, unless you count lying down in the commons as rude.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
There'd only be political pressure if his opponents were hovering up votes because they were committed to joining the EEA or whatever and he wasn't. Do you think the Tories might go down that route?
No, the pressure will come from within Labour circles. They are nearly all Remoaners. But they know Rejoin is too hard, for now, maybe for many decades. So they will say
“We might only have one term. We could be out again in 2029. The opportunity will be gone forever. Do it. Single Market!”
It will chime with Starmer’s own instincts
Forget Starmer - Sunak is PM. Facing both an economy mired in almost / actual recession and a desperate need for tax revenues. Removing our trade barriers with Europe generates a whopping economic gain which means less cuts for services.
There's no economic gain, since there's been no economic gain from EU membership, and no economic loss from Brexit.
You don’t believe free trade brings economic gains? As a libertarian, you support barriers to trade???
I do think free trade brings economic gains, and we have a free trade agreement with the EU, just as I wanted us to have. And we don't need to spend a billion pounds a month in taxes for that agreement either.
If we didn't have a free trade agreement and had tariffs etc then that would have caused much more disruption, but it didn't happen.
And now we're out of the EU we have the opportunity to strike more free trade agreements like CPTPP. Truly having our cake and eating it too.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
Dubious, a more in depth Blair institute poll last week had just 23% of voters overall and only 37% of Labour voters wanting to rejoin the full EU. Only most LD voters even wanted to join the EEA, a closer relationship outside both was preferred.
Once it is explained to voters rejoining the EU means the Eurozone, Brussels and Frankfurt imposed austerity and free movement again...
... then you've skewed your poll numbers.
The reality is that no politician is going to touch this for years. But the consensus that Brexit was a mistake will solidify over time, at which point the discussion begins.
Trying to predict now how that might go in 5 or 10 years time is an exercise in futility.
"Not a new start" "Rishi Sunak has been at the heart of 12 years of Tory failure" "Labour have made specific proposals" "Green Energy Tax/Green Propserity Plan" "Tories going in the wrong direction" and repetition of "High Tax, Low Growth Tory Economy"
12 year is a bit of a stretch - only been an MP since 2015 and Govt since 2018. Of course if you think they were on the right track until Brexit happened… (or was he an Osborne SPAD or something?)
What happens if a minister gets asked to resign and they just say no ? Does the king remove said minister at the PM's request ?
I know all sackings are officially resignations (I think !) but are they ever actual sackings by the king ?
I think they are automatically resigned when the PM goes. Unless they get asked back they are out
Nope - they are individual appointments from the Crown. The PM changing doesn’t change their job. They have to be sacked or resign. If you resign you get to write the letter - hence JRM doing this.
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
PMSL. Really?!
JRM is often incredibly rude and insulting. A civil tone does not mean someone is automatically polite, respectful, or decent.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
LOL.
Ask the civil service about his “civility”…
There isn't a single redeeming feature about Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Hello.
But ... hang on.
Is this a change of mind? You come across today as in favour of this but only a matter of weeks ago you were pouring invective on "remoaners" and wokerati for their evil plotting that would see us rejoin the EU.
I don't have a problem if you've changed your standpoint but have you?
I’m merely observing a big shift in sentiment: in that poll. And noting that it gives Starmer a window of opportunity to get closer to the EU (and solve the NI issue)
I detest the idea of Rejoining. I also think it is unlikely
I am maybe persuadable on the SM. I was always a soft Leaver. I wanted us to go to EEA/EFTA as a holding position with minimal damage, then plot our course further out, over time
Park remain as an option, drop "remoaner". What we have done has cost us billions. If Sunak wants to cut services less he can get those billions back into the economy by removing our self-imposed trading barriers. Not rejoin. Not even EEA yet. Just ending the petulant war and accepting we need them.
What do you think can be done without rejoining the customs union or single market? If it's align on everything we might as well just rejoin the whole thing.
"Not a new start" "Rishi Sunak has been at the heart of 12 years of Tory failure" "Labour have made specific proposals" "Green Energy Tax/Green Propserity Plan" "Tories going in the wrong direction" and repetition of "High Tax, Low Growth Tory Economy"
Actually telling us what they are rather than just telling us you have them would help!
The only one they cite in the soundbite is the Green Energy Tax - contrasting their proposal with Sunak's resistance to voices including but not exclusively Labour's, and watered-down measures.
I wonder if their plan is to develop individual policies "serially" so that they can "overwhelm" locally while not having to defend a "whole programme" until they reach the general election and the manifesto - testing them for popularity as they go.
Comments
I directed a school production many years ago, to the bemusement of all concerned.
Sunak depends on the parliamentary Conservative party - this is obvious.
Thankfully, Boris was not.
The facts are It will still be turbulent economics and politics for the next two years whatever Sunak does. If he puts country ahead of party or party ahead of country it’s still a rocky road and one stonking Tory election defeat.
look at Today’s Telegraph front page - Sunak must put the country before the markets. What is the right thing for the country? Are you and the Telegraph columnist on the same front page as it were? You know It is not as straightforward as just give the dammed markets whatever they ask for to keep them pacified, and carry on business as usual? I tell you in all candour that that option no longer exists.
BECAUSE. What do the markets want? The bond markets, seeing no plan for growth now, will perfectly fairly demand a greater return on their investment. Markets want an era of 2-4% interest rates and higher gilt markets than they have been for much of this century.
BUT From a political and avoiding election wipe out aspect, does the Tory government want the same as the markets, us paying them more because we can’t do growth?
The market opinion is government shouldn’t now continue to make everything worse by trying to keep gilts and interest rates down - it’s doom loop economics of low interest rates creates debt, coupled with a reluctance to tackle inflation because raising interest rates will make people poorer. You see? what you are calling good this afternoon after a Sunak’s pep talk, hunt and Sunak calming the markets after Truss instability, is itself the madness? We are in the belly of a beast that is dying, and government and BoE joint policy you are applauding as good, is what is killing us.
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
I mean it’s a minor point in the general scheme of things but Labour have played an excellent messaging game in recent weeks and they must keep it up to stay ahead of the curve.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63384608
Like a scene from tits and dragons.
“My view is the change of leader requires a General Election” JRM
“A General Election iimpossible to avoid" - Nadine
“A General Election is the only answer" - Christopher Chope
@hoffman_noa
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15m
Source who worked on the Liz Truss leadership campaign: "Thank god the adults are back in the room. He absolutely smashed that."
“We might only have one term. We could be out again in 2029. The opportunity will be gone forever. Do it. Single Market!”
It will chime with Starmer’s own instincts
It matters whether he's a competent Prime Minister.
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1584862604945551361?s=20&t=lEoLpavkv-kYZaqppxOInA
The caravan never stays still for long.
Some sort of benign visa system could provide a decent compromise and help plug the gap: because the demand to work in London, and learn English, is still there. It's just the current regulations militate against it.
But ... hang on.
Is this a change of mind? You come across today as in favour of this but only a matter of weeks ago you were pouring invective on "remoaners" and wokerati for their evil plotting that would see us rejoin the EU.
I don't have a problem if you've changed your standpoint but have you?
HOORAY!!!
*Or rather, someone would veto.
It would've been a laugh a minute.
Not sure it would've been good for the country, but a laugh a minute indeed.....
But I agree that it *will* be what happens; to get through the next 10 years, we all need the boost to the western economy that a deal between the EU and the UK would bring.
I detest the idea of Rejoining. I also think it is unlikely
I am maybe persuadable on the SM. I was always a soft Leaver. I wanted us to go to EEA/EFTA as a holding position with minimal damage, then plot our course further out, over time
Antiques Roadshow ?
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
2m
Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
Does the king remove said minister at the PM's request ?
I know all sackings are officially resignations (I think !) but are they ever actual sackings by the king ?
Two weeks without his valet.
Once it is explained to voters rejoining the EU means the Eurozone, Brussels and Frankfurt imposed austerity and free movement again the rejoin numbers collapse
https://institute.global/policy/moving-how-british-public-views-brexit-and-what-it-wants-future-relationship-european-union
If he's good the joke will die away.
If its cost us billions, its a rounding error. Seems like hubris to assume we would have outgrown them by even more without any evidence for that.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1584877335182180353
It was fantastic to be in Cavan at BIPA yesterday to build relations and understanding on the various issues facing Ireland and Northern Ireland.
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1584848013872316416
Ask the civil service about his “civility”…
If we didn't have a free trade agreement and had tariffs etc then that would have caused much more disruption, but it didn't happen.
And now we're out of the EU we have the opportunity to strike more free trade agreements like CPTPP. Truly having our cake and eating it too.
Betting PostF1: backed Perez each way to top qualifying in Mexico.
He was a tenth off Verstappen last time.
The reality is that no politician is going to touch this for years.
But the consensus that Brexit was a mistake will solidify over time, at which point the discussion begins.
Trying to predict now how that might go in 5 or 10 years time is an exercise in futility.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum
2 defeat Corbyn soundly
3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
I wonder if their plan is to develop individual policies "serially" so that they can "overwhelm" locally while not having to defend a "whole programme" until they reach the general election and the manifesto - testing them for popularity as they go.