Who would have thought a poll showing the Tories in the 20s would be an.. improvement for them.
The weirdist thing to me about all the polls recently is that the Lib Dems have barely moved. I would have thought they would have been in the high teens at least.
They are almost invisible thanks to the BBC prioritising seats over votes when it comes to coverage.
I still think they can improve during an election campaign as voters think about the situation in their own constituency.
A very good intro speech from Rishi Sunak. He's going to be a challenging opponent for Keir Starmer. A new phase of politics starts now, I reckon.
I was genuinely confused they didn't pick him over Truss in the first place. He was quite clearly the strongest candidate. There is clearly something deeply wrong with Tory party members. If they had gone with him originally I think they might have had a chance but hauling themselves back now when so much damage has been done to the party's reputation feels a much bigger ask.
Who would have thought a poll showing the Tories in the 20s would be an.. improvement for them.
The weirdist thing to me about all the polls recently is that the Lib Dems have barely moved. I would have thought they would have been in the high teens at least.
I expect if there's a genuine wave against the Tories they'll do well where they're the principle challengers. But yes in seats like Wimbledon Labour can give it a genuine go rather than any soft standing down.
A very good intro speech from Rishi Sunak. He's going to be a challenging opponent for Keir Starmer. A new phase of politics starts now, I reckon.
I was genuinely confused they didn't pick him over Truss in the first place. He was quite clearly the strongest candidate. There is clearly something deeply wrong with Tory party members. If they had gone with him originally I think they might have had a chance but hauling themselves back now when so much damage has been done to the party's reputation feels a much bigger ask.
Because of the weird “he stabbed Boris in the back” rubbish.
Perhaps the party can now move on from the weird Johnson love in
The relief we should all feel after hearing a true Prime Ministerial speech to the nation
I wish him well and ask the question is it to early to say we have seen a new Blair
I think it is too early to say that Big G. But it showed a level of astuteness and reading of the mood that I haven’t seen from a Tory leader for some time.
He will be a much more formidable opponent for Starmer than his 2 predecessors. But he has a lot of work to do to even get to a point where he is in a serious fight for the next government.
I think we’re finally back into a phase of sensible politics, with two broadly competent leaders of both main parties. Thank god
One can hope. Sunny Rick’s cabinet appointments will be telling. He needs to freeze out the crackpots, clowns and morons - prove the party has changed - is he up to the challenge?
West Lancs and City of Chester become very interesting. Both should be comfortable Lab holds but 1) do we see enthusiasm for Labour in turnout and %? 2) can Rishi hold the Tory share at respectable levels?
Edit - the YouGov leader poll has Lab a mile ahead in both......
Who would have thought a poll showing the Tories in the 20s would be an.. improvement for them.
The weirdist thing to me about all the polls recently is that the Lib Dems have barely moved. I would have thought they would have been in the high teens at least.
This "lack of split" probably reflects the orange-book flavour of the LD leadership, and the appeal of Labour in that voter-pool, at the moment.
I expect them to do better than this at the GE, at the expense of Labour's headline figure, as a result of "who is best placed to beat the Tory" voting patterns. This will have the effect of making Labour's vote more efficient, rather than reducing the number of seats they win.
A very good intro speech from Rishi Sunak. He's going to be a challenging opponent for Keir Starmer. A new phase of politics starts now, I reckon.
I was genuinely confused they didn't pick him over Truss in the first place. He was quite clearly the strongest candidate. There is clearly something deeply wrong with Tory party members. If they had gone with him originally I think they might have had a chance but hauling themselves back now when so much damage has been done to the party's reputation feels a much bigger ask.
He betrayed Boris, and for months prior his stock had been falling with them.
A very good intro speech from Rishi Sunak. He's going to be a challenging opponent for Keir Starmer. A new phase of politics starts now, I reckon.
I was genuinely confused they didn't pick him over Truss in the first place. He was quite clearly the strongest candidate. There is clearly something deeply wrong with Tory party members. If they had gone with him originally I think they might have had a chance but hauling themselves back now when so much damage has been done to the party's reputation feels a much bigger ask.
He betrayed Boris, and for months prior his stock had been falling with them.
I think we’re finally back into a phase of sensible politics, with two broadly competent leaders of both main parties. Thank god
One can hope. Sunny Rick’s cabinet appointments will be telling. He needs to freeze out the crackpots, clowns and morons - prove the party has changed - is he up to the challenge?
He could do it, he has the support in the MPs right now to do it, but I fear he'll go cautious and not want to be accused of locking out the crazies, who are a significant chunk of the MPs.
Advice please, you bunch of sage, well-informed seers.
I'm thinking about buying one of those Tado smart thermometers and seven of their smart TRVs. Prob about £600 all told.
Is it worth it? It's a lot to drop at once but could pay for itself after a few years. We're lucky that we fixed last year at a good rate, but it still might be worth going smart. Anybody got the Tado gear?
I did this in the summer. Amazon had an offer where 3 TVRs cost £139 but it’s suddenly £200?
It’s a great system so far but one note of caution. There’s a dongle thingie that has to be plugged by Ethernet into your router. And it speaks directly to every rad, it’s not a mesh. I have old thick chimney breasts and have had to position it totally centrally in the house not to have drop outs, with a long Ethernet cable neatly clipped to the ceiling back to an Ethernet port on the floor above.
Other thing to note, you don’t want the boiler to come on with every rad set to closed. I’ve left the towel rails with dumb TVRs as I figure it does not harm having them on every time the boiler is firing.
Installation is well explained, I’m a muppet and I managed it but it did take several hours to do the boiler bit and then every rad.
Thanks for that.
I have a bypass rad - no TRVs - in the hall where the thermostat will be, so that's not a problem - though I do wonder how efficient it is having to have the hall radiator come on every time another rad calls for heat.
It'll be a wired thermostat, I'm replacing like with like, so no wiring into the boiler. Though I am wondering if I should take the opportunity to switch to a wireless thermostat...
Not concerned about drop outs, don't think it'll be a problem.
Are you glad you got it?
Tricky one to answer.
I know people who have Tado and are happy, and people who have Tado and regret it. And similarly with other products.
I think the most useful things I can say are:
1 - I think there may be benefit in a remote thermostat (ie one that has a wifi or similar link to it's wallmount). Then you get to experiment with your best measurement point. In my experience these are preferred.
2 - £600 is a bit of a chunk, and you could need to check you are spending it most effectively. Is it a better investment than eg replacing all your lightbulbs with LEDs, getting weather compensation on your boiler, or insulating under your downstairs floor?
3 - Have you done all the free or very low cost things first? Such as eg making sure your extractor fans have a backdraft shutter that closes when it is not running or making sure your CH flow temperature is low enough so your boiler if a Combi is running a temp below 56C where it is condensing at 95% efficiency, rather than at say 65C or 70C where it may be running at an efficiency of closer to 80%.
4 - If you are using it as a home automation product, remember that the aim of HA is for you do less and let it run itself, not spend more time twiddling with it via you phone.
The relief we should all feel after hearing a true Prime Ministerial speech to the nation
I wish him well and ask the question is it to early to say we have seen a new Blair
Steady on Big G!
Maybe it is such a low bar that Rishi has easily cleared, but there is something about him that could lead to that comparison but of course there is a long way for him to go
His presentation is such a contrast to Johnson's buffonery maybe it is just a quiet satisfaction we have a grown up in charge at last
A very good intro speech from Rishi Sunak. He's going to be a challenging opponent for Keir Starmer. A new phase of politics starts now, I reckon.
I was genuinely confused they didn't pick him over Truss in the first place. He was quite clearly the strongest candidate. There is clearly something deeply wrong with Tory party members. If they had gone with him originally I think they might have had a chance but hauling themselves back now when so much damage has been done to the party's reputation feels a much bigger ask.
He betrayed Boris, and for months prior his stock had been falling with them.
The relief we should all feel after hearing a true Prime Ministerial speech to the nation
I wish him well and ask the question is it to early to say we have seen a new Blair
I didn’t think much of that to be honest. These “Francis of Assisi” new PM podium moments are a Bull Shit Fest at the best of times, but he didn’t really convince or sound genuine with any of it, unlike others who do them. For example he expressed his love and admiration for Truss and Boris in the same way he promised us he was on our side.
The main problem with these moments is saying not much you can disagree with, nothing about the contentious policy to come.
It may have resonated better if he had just won a general election majority before this speech, maybe.
A very good intro speech from Rishi Sunak. He's going to be a challenging opponent for Keir Starmer. A new phase of politics starts now, I reckon.
I was genuinely confused they didn't pick him over Truss in the first place. He was quite clearly the strongest candidate. There is clearly something deeply wrong with Tory party members. If they had gone with him originally I think they might have had a chance but hauling themselves back now when so much damage has been done to the party's reputation feels a much bigger ask.
I think the membership was still high on the fantasy politics of Boris and Liz just seemed like a continuation of that rush. But then there was a massive coming down.
Rees-Mogg is pathetic. Goodbye. Good-riddance. Hope you lose your seat next time.
It'd be one thing if he was simply a Boris backer, but he is the sort who really slags of his opponents, and you just cannot turn on a sixpence when you do that.
A very good intro speech from Rishi Sunak. He's going to be a challenging opponent for Keir Starmer. A new phase of politics starts now, I reckon.
I was genuinely confused they didn't pick him over Truss in the first place. He was quite clearly the strongest candidate. There is clearly something deeply wrong with Tory party members. If they had gone with him originally I think they might have had a chance but hauling themselves back now when so much damage has been done to the party's reputation feels a much bigger ask.
He betrayed Boris, and for months prior his stock had been falling with them.
Whilst I await to see Rishi remove the lunatics (and "restore trust") it is a great relief that for the fist time in 5 or 6 years we can have a competent rational government again.
Probably best to wait and see how the fiscal statement on All Hallows Eve goes before rushing to judgement.
I remember that there were many promising aspects to Theresa May's first speech outside Downing Street. It didn't give much clue to what was to follow.
"Not a new start" "Rishi Sunak has been at the heart of 12 years of Tory failure" "Labour have made specific proposals" "Green Energy Tax/Green Propserity Plan" "Tories going in the wrong direction" and repetition of "High Tax, Low Growth Tory Economy"
Watching Annelise Dodds on BBC TV just now reminds me how Labour are not going to have a hope of fixing things when they win power. It's just not in their DNA. They only know how to spend money.
Rees-Mogg is pathetic. Goodbye. Good-riddance. Hope you lose your seat next time.
It'd be one thing if he was simply a Boris backer, but he is the sort who really slags of his opponents, and you just cannot turn on a sixpence when you do that.
"Start again from 2019. Hard work, difficult times, win back trust" "12 years in the wrong direction. Tories the party of a high tax low growth economy. Time for a change."
Might become the dullest government since, when? Maybe 2016 before Theresa May's minders took over, followed by Brexit taking over everything... Heck, we might even have some space for policy debates.
On the other hand - backbenchers / number 10 advisors / economic woes
Considering Rishi's wife is so wealthy I was somewhat surprised she turned up at Buckingham Palace looking like she was going shopping at Primark. Quite a contrast to the always immaculately turned out Rishi.
Edit: I take this back. BBC said it was his wife but it wasn't. I only really saw her back! She was clearly the bag carrier.
The relief we should all feel after hearing a true Prime Ministerial speech to the nation
I wish him well and ask the question is it to early to say we have seen a new Blair
Steady on Big G!
Maybe it is such a low bar that Rishi has easily cleared, but there is something about him that could lead to that comparison but of course there is a long way for him to go
His presentation is such a contrast to Johnson's buffonery maybe it is just a quiet satisfaction we have a grown up in charge at last
Presentation butters no parsnips for me - the tax rises that this mood music suggests are not good policy IMO.
The relief we should all feel after hearing a true Prime Ministerial speech to the nation
I wish him well and ask the question is it to early to say we have seen a new Blair
Steady on Big G!
Maybe it is such a low bar that Rishi has easily cleared, but there is something about him that could lead to that comparison but of course there is a long way for him to go
His presentation is such a contrast to Johnson's buffonery maybe it is just a quiet satisfaction we have a grown up in charge at last
Ironic that the youngest PM ever - other than in the ancient world - has this epithet.
Who would have thought a poll showing the Tories in the 20s would be an.. improvement for them.
The weirdist thing to me about all the polls recently is that the Lib Dems have barely moved. I would have thought they would have been in the high teens at least.
They are almost invisible thanks to the BBC prioritising seats over votes when it comes to coverage.
I still think they can improve during an election campaign as voters think about the situation in their own constituency.
They must be a bit worried that they are not polling consistently over 15% given whats happened, the chaos, cost of living etc. If they cant get to 20% in a poll now, will they ever?
The relief we should all feel after hearing a true Prime Ministerial speech to the nation
I wish him well and ask the question is it to early to say we have seen a new Blair
Steady on Big G!
Maybe it is such a low bar that Rishi has easily cleared, but there is something about him that could lead to that comparison but of course there is a long way for him to go
His presentation is such a contrast to Johnson's buffonery maybe it is just a quiet satisfaction we have a grown up in charge at last
He sounds a lot like Blair, presumably because they both try to sound less posh than they actually are.
This won't be a dull premiership, because these times are not dull (unless you find government death throes dull). But maybe we can at least have a few months of relative quiet.
I think we’re finally back into a phase of sensible politics, with two broadly competent leaders of both main parties. Thank god
One can hope. Sunny Rick’s cabinet appointments will be telling. He needs to freeze out the crackpots, clowns and morons - prove the party has changed - is he up to the challenge?
He could do it, he has the support in the MPs right now to do it, but I fear he'll go cautious and not want to be accused of locking out the crazies, who are a significant chunk of the MPs.
I share your fear. He needs to show he has the cojones.
This won't be a dull premiership, because these times are not dull (unless you find government death throes dull). But maybe we can at least have a few months of relative quiet.
Something will probably turn up to disturb that calm.
A very good intro speech from Rishi Sunak. He's going to be a challenging opponent for Keir Starmer. A new phase of politics starts now, I reckon.
I was genuinely confused they didn't pick him over Truss in the first place. He was quite clearly the strongest candidate. There is clearly something deeply wrong with Tory party members. If they had gone with him originally I think they might have had a chance but hauling themselves back now when so much damage has been done to the party's reputation feels a much bigger ask.
He betrayed Boris, and for months prior his stock had been falling with them.
Boris betrayed Boris!
Just getting into the mindset of a Tory Member!
That sounds painful.
Yes you have to do it now and again - but you can't linger.
A very good intro speech from Rishi Sunak. He's going to be a challenging opponent for Keir Starmer. A new phase of politics starts now, I reckon.
I was genuinely confused they didn't pick him over Truss in the first place. He was quite clearly the strongest candidate. There is clearly something deeply wrong with Tory party members. If they had gone with him originally I think they might have had a chance but hauling themselves back now when so much damage has been done to the party's reputation feels a much bigger ask.
I think the membership was still high on the fantasy politics of Boris and Liz just seemed like a continuation of that rush. But then there was a massive coming down.
There are several things to consider when choosing a party leader: 1) Do I like this person? 2) Does this person want the outcomes for the country that I want? 3) Do I believe this person can get to the outcomes he/she wants? 4) Can this person persuade the country?
I would say Tory members focused mainly on 1 and, to a lesser extent 2 (as was observed at previous party conferences, Liz was very popular personally among members and put a lot of effort into meeting as mamy as possible), and were willing to susp3bd disbelief on 3 and 4.
On topic, there may be a small bounce for the Tories in the polls but I expect this to fizzle out over the next six months by which time Labour will be 20+ pts ahead in the polls.
Nothing really exciting being offered by Labour but the narrative of 12 years of Tory misrule is getting through to the public.
Congratulations to @RishiSunak, who has become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Together we will continue working to tackle the challenges of the moment, including the war in Ukraine and its many consequences for Europe and the world.
Watching Annelise Dodds on BBC TV just now reminds me how Labour are not going to have a hope of fixing things when they win power. It's just not in their DNA. They only know how to spend money.
There's a surprise. We'd all expected you to think the opposite...
I think we’re finally back into a phase of sensible politics, with two broadly competent leaders of both main parties. Thank god
One can hope. Sunny Rick’s cabinet appointments will be telling. He needs to freeze out the crackpots, clowns and morons - prove the party has changed - is he up to the challenge?
He could do it, he has the support in the MPs right now to do it, but I fear he'll go cautious and not want to be accused of locking out the crazies, who are a significant chunk of the MPs.
I share your fear. He needs to show he has the cojones.
We are about to find out whether he does.
Two big tests coming up in the next few days:
1. Composition of the Cabinet
2. Need for the financial statement on 31 Oct to be sufficiently robust and prudent.
The relief we should all feel after hearing a true Prime Ministerial speech to the nation
I wish him well and ask the question is it to early to say we have seen a new Blair
After hubris comes…
Sturgeon
Eleven election victories in a row. Are you saying that number twelve will not occur? If so, get your wallet out: the top Unionist name to be Next FM is Anas Sarwar, at a very tasty 18/1 ! 😄
Mr. kinabalu, play fair: one of the biggest criticisms I had regarding Truss was that borrowing for tax cuts was nuts, and both major parties buying into binge borrowing was horrendous.
On topic, there may be a small bounce for the Tories in the polls but I expect this to fizzle out over the next six months by which time Labour will be 20+ pts ahead in the polls.
Nothing really exciting bring offered by Labour but the narrative of 12 years of Tory misrule is getting through to the public.
I think that is right. Labour were ahead, but in a 'midterm normality' kind of way which was recoverable, then Truss caused a lot of people to snap and things went apocalyptic. That doesn't get forgotten. The 'time for a change' perennial GE argument at last struck home.
This won't be a dull premiership, because these times are not dull (unless you find government death throes dull). But maybe we can at least have a few months of relative quiet.
Something will probably turn up to disturb that calm.
UAP Whistleblower legislation moving its way through Congress as we speak…
On topic, there may be a small bounce for the Tories in the polls but I expect this to fizzle out over the next six months by which time Labour will be 20+ pts ahead in the polls.
Nothing really exciting being offered by Labour but the narrative of 12 years of Tory misrule is getting through to the public.
Yes.
I shall save this post as I suspect it is absolutely spot on.
Rishi is not a formidable opponent for Labour. He will be easy to take down. But for the moment I wish him well and hope that he appoints an equally sensible cabinet and that we enter a period of relative stability.
Mr. M, it's very unfair to say Labour know only how to spend money.
They also know how to borrow it.
Given how much of our cash this Tory government have borrowed and pissed up the effing wall on ludicrous pet obsessions like being beastly to our European partners, you might want to wind your bloody neck in
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
A very good intro speech from Rishi Sunak. He's going to be a challenging opponent for Keir Starmer. A new phase of politics starts now, I reckon.
I was genuinely confused they didn't pick him over Truss in the first place. He was quite clearly the strongest candidate. There is clearly something deeply wrong with Tory party members. If they had gone with him originally I think they might have had a chance but hauling themselves back now when so much damage has been done to the party's reputation feels a much bigger ask.
I think the membership was still high on the fantasy politics of Boris and Liz just seemed like a continuation of that rush. But then there was a massive coming down.
Their default state is nuts but I do think they'd have elected Sunak this time if it'd got that far.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
Considering Rishi's wife is so wealthy I was somewhat surprised she turned up at Buckingham Palace looking like she was going shopping at Primark. Quite a contrast to the always immaculately turned out Rishi.
Edit: I take this back. BBC said it was his wife but it wasn't. I only really saw her back! She was clearly the bag carrier.
Alright for us to make that mistake, but oh dear BBC.
Congratulations to @RishiSunak, who has become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Together we will continue working to tackle the challenges of the moment, including the war in Ukraine and its many consequences for Europe and the world.
The relief we should all feel after hearing a true Prime Ministerial speech to the nation
I wish him well and ask the question is it to early to say we have seen a new Blair
After hubris comes…
Sturgeon
Eleven election victories in a row. Are you saying that number twelve will not occur? If so, get your wallet out: the top Unionist name to be Next FM is Anas Sarwar, at a very tasty 18/1 ! 😄
You don’t like the idea of Sturgeon being Sunak’s nemesis?
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
The groundwork will be be done in the first Labour Parliament. I think if we are to fully rejoin it will happen in a subsequent Labour parliament.
Mr. kinabalu, play fair: one of the biggest criticisms I had regarding Truss was that borrowing for tax cuts was nuts, and both major parties buying into binge borrowing was horrendous.
So why focus on Labour - who are not even in government - your daft post above? It just makes you look like a partisan shill
Mr. kinabalu, play fair: one of the biggest criticisms I had regarding Truss was that borrowing for tax cuts was nuts, and both major parties buying into binge borrowing was horrendous.
Ok, well the deceased cliche is that a reckless approach to the public finances is a Labour USP. If you weren't popping that one out then all is well.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
72/28 in Scotland.
Odd for anyone Scottish to say they back Brexit, but for a politician seeking votes, it is a vote loser. Why? 72% of Scotland wants to rejoin the EU. Sarwar is appealing to only 28% of the electorate.
On topic, there may be a small bounce for the Tories in the polls but I expect this to fizzle out over the next six months by which time Labour will be 20+ pts ahead in the polls.
Nothing really exciting being offered by Labour but the narrative of 12 years of Tory misrule is getting through to the public.
Yes.
I shall save this post as I suspect it is absolutely spot on.
Rishi is not a formidable opponent for Labour. He will be easy to take down. But for the moment I wish him well and hope that he appoints an equally sensible cabinet and that we enter a period of relative stability.
I think that we can expect Lab to need to come up with policy proposals that really ask questions of the Govt - which was not really needed under latter-day-Boris or Liz Truss.
Ultimately an ex hedge fund manager multi millionaire isn't really going to cut it with a country going through austerity and an economic crisis but hey ho.
Mr. M, it's very unfair to say Labour know only how to spend money.
They also know how to borrow it.
I know this is a very popular trope, but I've never been wholly convinced by it. The post-war Labour administration has receipts in excess of spending; Wilson, Heath and Callaghan borrow through the late 60s and 70s, the Thatcher adminstration restructures everything and borrowing declines, until the economic pressures explode and the Major adminstration is borrowing at near peacetime record levels. We have a period of stability, before Brown returns us to 1970s levels of borrowing, then the economy explodes again, and borrowing is gradually reduced under Cameron's administration until the economy explodes again (on the Tories watch, though it is scarcely their 'fault') and the Tories are saddled with record debt, and so the cycle continues.
I am surprised by how little impact government policy actually has - with the exception of Gordon Brown's neo-endogenous growth theory bollocks which attempted to dress up deficit spend as investment.
Background for journalists about Rishi Sunak and Winchester College (part 1/2)
Since there's so much talk about Rishi Sunak having attended Winchester College, and having supposedly been its "head boy", here's some background for journalists.
What follows may be especially useful for those who can't stomach the school's revoltingly badly (but obviously very expensively) designed website.
1. Winchester College is basically two schools grafted together: the original 14th century one, founded in 1382, and another one that grew up piecemeal 500 years later (in the late 19th century and possibly even the very early 20th century) after the bourgeoisie got the vote in 1832.
2. The 14th century part, called "College", is for 70 academically excellent boys or "scholars". The 19th century part is for about 600 other boys, called "commoners", divided into 10 boarding "houses". Rishi Sunak was a commoner. The two parts of the schools have two different exams: Election (to College) and Entrance (to the Commoner part of the school).
3. The scholars are the elite. They are not "scholarship boys" in the popular sense of that term.
4. It is possible to sit Election and say you don't want to go to College. You may even finish very high up on the ranked "Election Roll" but you won't go to College - you will get an "Exhibition" and go to one of the houses. As you can imagine, that is quite rare. It is also possible to sit Election and say that you DO want to go to College but fail to do so and yet still be offered a place at a house. That is more common. And of course it is possible only to sit the Entrance exam and to get into a house and never have any thought of College even enter your head. I don't know what Sunak did. I suspect he only sat Entrance. (If an aide or pal of his is reading this, PM me.) But in any case he was a "commoner".
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
I agree.
The other thing that has not yet filtered through is that the question isn’t going to be “would you roll the clock back to 2016 and vote for us to rejoin the EU on our previous terms of membership.”
Background for journalists about Rishi Sunak and Winchester College (part 2/2)
5. All of the boys attend classes in the same classrooms, but it's where they "live" that counts.
The 70 "scholars" sleep, dine, and study in the original 14th century buildings. These include "Hall", a room that would make many people think of the dining hall in the Harry Potter films. They also include the chapel, where scholars attend "Preces" (prayers) every evening.
The 600 "commoners", on the other hand, sleep, dine, and study in 19th and 20th century buildings. The idea that life in the "houses" has anything to do with William of Wykeham, the famous pimp, bishop, Chancellor of England, and Chaplain of the Order of the Garter, is rubbish. The notion is as fake as the Cambridge college where "dons" speak of "combining" in the "Old Library" and you find out it was built in the 1970s.
6. In both parts of the school, favoured boys are appointed as "prefects".
In the houses, these are divided into "house prefects" who have authority over the boys in their house (of around 60 boys) and "school prefects" (Co Praes) who have authority over all commoners. The top commoner prefect is called the Sen Co Prae. No commoner prefect has any authority over a boy who is in College.
College has its own prefects, the top one being called the Aulae Prae, or "Prefect of Hall". It's the Aulae Prae who does things like reading the address when a distinguished guest is welcomed ceremonially through the school gates (gates which of course lead into College, not into a house). It's the Aulae Prae who is basically the head boy of Winchester College, although technically he is joint head boy with the Sen Co Prae.
Rishi Sunak was the Sen Co Prae.
7. Boris Johnson was in the Eton equivalent of "College", having been a "King's Scholar". He was also "Captain of School". The Captain of School is the Eton equivalent of the Aulae Prae and is always in "College". In short: Johnson really was the head boy at Eton, whereas Sunak was only head commoner at Winchester, the top authority among the boys who belonged to the less academic part of the school, the 19th century part.
I can believe that: liar, buffoon, shyster, con-man, two-faced arse, cheat...
We're any of them good names?
At the very end here of Boris political career, despite everything before it, we all have no choice but to applaud this last act from him. He could have taken it to the membership, he saw what that would be like and the consequences. It is a far, far better thing that Boris done, than he had ever done; it is a far, far better rest that he now goes to than he would have ever known.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
Listening to Faisal Islam on the BBC’s newscast - he had this fascinating and (I think) disturbing nugget;
“By all accounts (Sunak at the treasury during the pandemic) it was, not quite minority report, but like, big screens of all the policy options and all the other countries policy options… Germany had done this on their version of the furlough scheme, or France had done that, and he would want to make sure that he could say we’ve done the most in Europe … so you just had to look at what the G7 record was and then you could say, well, he’s going to go to 80%, because it’s higher than 77%”
It’s bullshit benchmarking. We handed him the grandkids credit card and he maxed out the credit limit to keep up with the Joneses?
That’s our bloody national debt that he’s ramped up, just so he can gain some stupid imaginary brexit points.
And now the country must pay for his idiocy, with higher mortgage rates, tax increases, and spending cuts?
I don’t buy the fiscally dry, sound money persona he’s trying to portray. It was him spaffing cash up the wall that is the primary reason we’re now in one hell of a fiscal mess.
Why should we suffer for his sins?
I’m amazed that the otherwise sensible, sound money PB tories are falling for his guff.
Politicians were ever thus.
Not everyone is as continent as Goderich (I think) who famously left more in the Treasury when he left than was there when he arrived..
That was the Earl of Bath with the 47-hour ‘short lived’ ministry:
‘He ran the wisest and most honest of administrations, having never transacted one rash thing: and what is more marvellous, having left as much money in the Treasury as he found in it.’
Background for journalists about Rishi Sunak and Winchester College (part 2/2)
5. All of the boys attend classes in the same classrooms, but it's where they "live" that counts.
The 70 "scholars" sleep, dine, and study in the original 14th century buildings. These include "Hall", a room that would make many people think of the dining hall in the Harry Potter films. They also include the chapel, where scholars attend "Preces" (prayers) every evening.
The 600 "commoners", on the other hand, sleep, dine, and study in 19th and 20th century buildings. The idea that life in the "houses" has anything to do with William of Wykeham, the famous pimp, bishop, Chancellor of England, and Chaplain of the Order of the Garter, is rubbish. The notion is as fake as the Cambridge college where "dons" speak of "combining" in the "Old Library" and you find out it was built in the 1970s.
6. In both parts of the school, favoured boys are appointed as "prefects".
In the houses, these are divided into "house prefects" who have authority over the boys in their house (of around 60 boys) and "school prefects" (Co Praes) who have authority over all commoners. The top commoner prefect is called the Sen Co Prae. No commoner prefect has any authority over a boy who is in College.
College has its own prefects, the top one being called the Aulae Prae, or "Prefect of Hall". It's the Aulae Prae who does things like reading the address when a distinguished guest is welcomed ceremonially through the school gates (gates which of course lead into College, not into a house). It's the Aulae Prae who is basically the head boy of Winchester College, although technically he is joint head boy with the Sen Co Prae.
Rishi Sunak was the Sen Co Prae.
7. Boris Johnson was in the Eton equivalent of "College", having been a "King's Scholar". He was also "Captain of School". The Captain of School is the Eton equivalent of the Aulae Prae and is always in "College". In short: Johnson really was the head boy at Eton, whereas Sunak was only head commoner at Winchester, the top authority among the boys who belonged to the less academic part of the school, the 19th century part.
Mr. M, it's very unfair to say Labour know only how to spend money.
They also know how to borrow it.
I know this is a very popular trope, but I've never been wholly convinced by it. The post-war Labour administration has receipts in excess of spending; Wilson, Heath and Callaghan borrow through the late 60s and 70s, the Thatcher adminstration restructures everything and borrowing declines, until the economic pressures explode and the Major adminstration is borrowing at near peacetime record levels. We have a period of stability, before Brown returns us to 1970s levels of borrowing, then the economy explodes again, and borrowing is gradually reduced under Cameron's administration until the economy explodes again (on the Tories watch, though it is scarcely their 'fault') and the Tories are saddled with record debt, and so the cycle continues.
I am surprised by how little impact government policy actually has - with the exception of Gordon Brown's neo-endogenous growth theory bollocks which attempted to dress up deficit spend as investment.
As Truss found out, a lot of this is in the end dictated by external realities rather than the ideology of the party in power.
Political parties spend far too much time talking about the economy, when there are other ways they can improve peoples lives that have far greater chance of success.
Steady and boring on the economy. Radical and innovative elsewhere please.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
Labour need to be careful with their calls for an election. Starmer's message is basically: "Congratulations on becoming the first British Asian PM. I want you to be chucked out immediately before you've had chance to do anything."
Labour need to be careful with their calls for an election. Starmer's message is basically: "Congratulations on becoming the first British Asian PM. I want you to be chucked out immediately before you've had chance to do anything."
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
Labour's first term?
Does any bookie offer a market in LAB% minus CON% at the next GE? If there are any mugs who want to buy that at 30, or even 25, I would love to take the seller's side.
Listening to Faisal Islam on the BBC’s newscast - he had this fascinating and (I think) disturbing nugget;
“By all accounts (Sunak at the treasury during the pandemic) it was, not quite minority report, but like, big screens of all the policy options and all the other countries policy options… Germany had done this on their version of the furlough scheme, or France had done that, and he would want to make sure that he could say we’ve done the most in Europe … so you just had to look at what the G7 record was and then you could say, well, he’s going to go to 80%, because it’s higher than 77%”
It’s bullshit benchmarking. We handed him the grandkids credit card and he maxed out the credit limit to keep up with the Joneses?
That’s our bloody national debt that he’s ramped up, just so he can gain some stupid imaginary brexit points.
And now the country must pay for his idiocy, with higher mortgage rates, tax increases, and spending cuts?
I don’t buy the fiscally dry, sound money persona he’s trying to portray. It was him spaffing cash up the wall that is the primary reason we’re now in one hell of a fiscal mess.
Why should we suffer for his sins?
I’m amazed that the otherwise sensible, sound money PB tories are falling for his guff.
Politicians were ever thus.
Not everyone is as continent as Goderich (I think) who famously left more in the Treasury when he left than was there when he arrived.
People were flailing around looking to deal with an unproblematic of unknown magnitude. He was being criticised for being less generous than X or Y, or for not doing something that Germany or Italy had done. So of course he benchmarked. It’s just a human reaction to incentives.
Benchmarking would be seeing what best practice is elsewhere and doing that.
Benchmarking is NOT seeing what others are doing and being "more generous".
Your way is better. But not what happens in the real world
Ummmmm isnt congratulating the new PM the new start you claim we need Keir? Hes snookered himself here
We need a new start Congrats on the new start
He's congratulating the man, and criticising his policies and party – the right approach IMO
Hes calling for a fresh start and congratulating the man making a fresh start Thats like congratulating the host on a delicious lemon mereingue and saying we really need a dessert
Labour need to be careful with their calls for an election. Starmer's message is basically: "Congratulations on becoming the first British Asian PM. I want you to be chucked out immediately before you've had chance to do anything."
Comments
I still think they can improve during an election campaign as voters think about the situation in their own constituency.
But yes in seats like Wimbledon Labour can give it a genuine go rather than any soft standing down.
Perhaps the party can now move on from the weird Johnson love in
He will be a much more formidable opponent for Starmer than his 2 predecessors. But he has a lot of work to do to even get to a point where he is in a serious fight for the next government.
1) do we see enthusiasm for Labour in turnout and %?
2) can Rishi hold the Tory share at respectable levels?
Edit - the YouGov leader poll has Lab a mile ahead in both......
I expect them to do better than this at the GE, at the expense of Labour's headline figure, as a result of "who is best placed to beat the Tory" voting patterns. This will have the effect of making Labour's vote more efficient, rather than reducing the number of seats they win.
I know people who have Tado and are happy, and people who have Tado and regret it. And similarly with other products.
I think the most useful things I can say are:
1 - I think there may be benefit in a remote thermostat (ie one that has a wifi or similar link to it's wallmount). Then you get to experiment with your best measurement point. In my experience these are preferred.
2 - £600 is a bit of a chunk, and you could need to check you are spending it most effectively. Is it a better investment than eg replacing all your lightbulbs with LEDs, getting weather compensation on your boiler, or insulating under your downstairs floor?
3 - Have you done all the free or very low cost things first? Such as eg making sure your extractor fans have a backdraft shutter that closes when it is not running or making sure your CH flow temperature is low enough so your boiler if a Combi is running a temp below 56C where it is condensing at 95% efficiency, rather than at say 65C or 70C where it may be running at an efficiency of closer to 80%.
4 - If you are using it as a home automation product, remember that the aim of HA is for you do less and let it run itself, not spend more time twiddling with it via you phone.
HTH.
His presentation is such a contrast to Johnson's buffonery maybe it is just a quiet satisfaction we have a grown up in charge at last
Sunak is posing for photos outside Downing Street after finishing his first speech as prime minister.
He enters No 10 to loud applause and cheers from the crowds outside.
Is that really true? I assume at these events people come along specifically to boo.
The main problem with these moments is saying not much you can disagree with, nothing about the contentious policy to come.
It may have resonated better if he had just won a general election majority before this speech, maybe.
I remember that there were many promising aspects to Theresa May's first speech outside Downing Street. It didn't give much clue to what was to follow.
"Not a new start"
"Rishi Sunak has been at the heart of 12 years of Tory failure"
"Labour have made specific proposals"
"Green Energy Tax/Green Propserity Plan"
"Tories going in the wrong direction"
and repetition of
"High Tax, Low Growth Tory Economy"
They also know how to borrow it.
FFS what a howler
"Start again from 2019. Hard work, difficult times, win back trust"
"12 years in the wrong direction. Tories the party of a high tax low growth economy. Time for a change."
On the other hand - backbenchers / number 10 advisors / economic woes
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1584863192039444480
Just a reminder of the difficulties all governments are facing
https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/1687167/boris-johnson-tory-leadership-race-rishi-sunak-inside-story-comment
We are about to find out whether he does.
1) Do I like this person?
2) Does this person want the outcomes for the country that I want?
3) Do I believe this person can get to the outcomes he/she wants?
4) Can this person persuade the country?
I would say Tory members focused mainly on 1 and, to a lesser extent 2 (as was observed at previous party conferences, Liz was very popular personally among members and put a lot of effort into meeting as mamy as possible), and were willing to susp3bd disbelief on 3 and 4.
If so, his judgement makes him unfit for any office
Nothing really exciting being offered by Labour but the narrative of 12 years of Tory misrule is getting through to the public.
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1584862604945551361
1. Composition of the Cabinet
2. Need for the financial statement on 31 Oct to be sufficiently robust and prudent.
We'll find out soon!
We're any of them good names?
I shall save this post as I suspect it is absolutely spot on.
Rishi is not a formidable opponent for Labour. He will be easy to take down. But for the moment I wish him well and hope that he appoints an equally sensible cabinet and that we enter a period of relative stability.
Just 18% of those in Truss' final Cabinet supported his leadership bid, compared to a whopping 44% of MPs who weren't.
https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1584608718817107969
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
Odd for anyone Scottish to say they back Brexit, but for a politician seeking votes, it is a vote loser. Why? 72% of Scotland wants to rejoin the EU. Sarwar is appealing to only 28% of the electorate.
https://twitter.com/bellshillbaker/status/1579131664332050433?s=46&t=m8HANJCaY0BOz6oI4Mag3g
I am surprised by how little impact government policy actually has - with the exception of Gordon Brown's neo-endogenous growth theory bollocks which attempted to dress up deficit spend as investment.
Since there's so much talk about Rishi Sunak having attended Winchester College, and having supposedly been its "head boy", here's some background for journalists.
What follows may be especially useful for those who can't stomach the school's revoltingly badly (but obviously very expensively) designed website.
1. Winchester College is basically two schools grafted together: the original 14th century one, founded in 1382, and another one that grew up piecemeal 500 years later (in the late 19th century and possibly even the very early 20th century) after the bourgeoisie got the vote in 1832.
2. The 14th century part, called "College", is for 70 academically excellent boys or "scholars". The 19th century part is for about 600 other boys, called "commoners", divided into 10 boarding "houses". Rishi Sunak was a commoner. The two parts of the schools have two different exams: Election (to College) and Entrance (to the Commoner part of the school).
3. The scholars are the elite. They are not "scholarship boys" in the popular sense of that term.
4. It is possible to sit Election and say you don't want to go to College. You may even finish very high up on the ranked "Election Roll" but you won't go to College - you will get an "Exhibition" and go to one of the houses. As you can imagine, that is quite rare. It is also possible to sit Election and say that you DO want to go to College but fail to do so and yet still be offered a place at a house. That is more common. And of course it is possible only to sit the Entrance exam and to get into a house and never have any thought of College even enter your head. I don't know what Sunak did. I suspect he only sat Entrance. (If an aide or pal of his is reading this, PM me.) But in any case he was a "commoner".
(Part 2/2 follows.)
https://twitter.com/yestories/status/1584869839403118592?s=46&t=m8HANJCaY0BOz6oI4Mag3g
The other thing that has not yet filtered through is that the question isn’t going to be “would you roll the clock back to 2016 and vote for us to rejoin the EU on our previous terms of membership.”
5. All of the boys attend classes in the same classrooms, but it's where they "live" that counts.
The 70 "scholars" sleep, dine, and study in the original 14th century buildings. These include "Hall", a room that would make many people think of the dining hall in the Harry Potter films. They also include the chapel, where scholars attend "Preces" (prayers) every evening.
The 600 "commoners", on the other hand, sleep, dine, and study in 19th and 20th century buildings. The idea that life in the "houses" has anything to do with William of Wykeham, the famous pimp, bishop, Chancellor of England, and Chaplain of the Order of the Garter, is rubbish. The notion is as fake as the Cambridge college where "dons" speak of "combining" in the "Old Library" and you find out it was built in the 1970s.
6. In both parts of the school, favoured boys are appointed as "prefects".
In the houses, these are divided into "house prefects" who have authority over the boys in their house (of around 60 boys) and "school prefects" (Co Praes) who have authority over all commoners. The top commoner prefect is called the Sen Co Prae. No commoner prefect has any authority over a boy who is in College.
College has its own prefects, the top one being called the Aulae Prae, or "Prefect of Hall". It's the Aulae Prae who does things like reading the address when a distinguished guest is welcomed ceremonially through the school gates (gates which of course lead into College, not into a house). It's the Aulae Prae who is basically the head boy of Winchester College, although technically he is joint head boy with the Sen Co Prae.
Rishi Sunak was the Sen Co Prae.
7. Boris Johnson was in the Eton equivalent of "College", having been a "King's Scholar". He was also "Captain of School". The Captain of School is the Eton equivalent of the Aulae Prae and is always in "College". In short: Johnson really was the head boy at Eton, whereas Sunak was only head commoner at Winchester, the top authority among the boys who belonged to the less academic part of the school, the 19th century part.
Ummmmm isnt congratulating the new PM the new start you claim we need Keir?
Hes snookered himself here
We need a new start
Congrats on the new start
Political parties spend far too much time talking about the economy, when there are other ways they can improve peoples lives that have far greater chance of success.
Steady and boring on the economy. Radical and innovative elsewhere please.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1584861552234369024
Congratulations, Rishi Sunak, on becoming Prime Minister and making history as the first British Asian PM.
The Tories have crashed the economy, with low wages, high prices and a cost of living crisis.
The public needs a fresh start and a say on Britain’s future.
Does any bookie offer a market in LAB% minus CON% at the next GE?
If there are any mugs who want to buy that at 30, or even 25, I would love to take the seller's side.
Thats like congratulating the host on a delicious lemon mereingue and saying we really need a dessert