(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
Hang on a moment. Is Dan mistaking poor attempts at Latin translation delivered in RP tones, for being civil? He is one of the rudest, most dismissive, divisive politicians of his generation.
I've never noticed him being rude, unless you count lying down in the commons as rude.
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
I agree. But I suspect he entertains the fantasy there’s a chance. And this was the wrong moment for his fantasy to play out has he would wish.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
If there is action on rejoin it will be over multiple election cycles I think, if only to reassure the EU we won't immediately turn around again. So first term close alignment, second term single market, third term rejoin etc.
If Starmer gets a large majority (still quite likely despite Sunak being not-entirely-mad) he will come under huge pressure to speed this up, for fear he only has one term. And he might only get one term as the economic situation will be perilous for years
He might go for EEA/SM membership and say “times are so desperate we need to do everything we can to help British business, this is it”. And it might work
Rejoin seems unlikely for a generation. It would require yet another energy-sapping, divisive referendum. Unappealing for any government
There'd only be political pressure if his opponents were hovering up votes because they were committed to joining the EEA or whatever and he wasn't. Do you think the Tories might go down that route?
No, the pressure will come from within Labour circles. They are nearly all Remoaners. But they know Rejoin is too hard, for now, maybe for many decades. So they will say
“We might only have one term. We could be out again in 2029. The opportunity will be gone forever. Do it. Single Market!”
It will chime with Starmer’s own instincts
Forget Starmer - Sunak is PM. Facing both an economy mired in almost / actual recession and a desperate need for tax revenues. Removing our trade barriers with Europe generates a whopping economic gain which means less cuts for services.
There's no economic gain, since there's been no economic gain from EU membership, and no economic loss from Brexit.
You don’t believe free trade brings economic gains? As a libertarian, you support barriers to trade???
I do think free trade brings economic gains, and we have a free trade agreement with the EU, just as I wanted us to have. And we don't need to spend a billion pounds a month in taxes for that agreement either.
If we didn't have a free trade agreement and had tariffs etc then that would have caused much more disruption, but it didn't happen.
And now we're out of the EU we have the opportunity to strike more free trade agreements like CPTPP. Truly having our cake and eating it too.
He really is a piece of work. I hope Sunak offers him a cabinet post as ambassador to North Korea.
“My view is the change of leader requires a General Election” JRM
“A General Election iimpossible to avoid" - Nadine
“A General Election is the only answer" - Christopher Chope
Well, they only need about 30-40 like-minded colleagues to vote with Labour on the next "confidence vote" and they will have their wish. The catch-22 though is that they would lose the Tory whip and could not be Conservative candidates in that election.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
Hang on a moment. Is Dan mistaking poor attempts at Latin translation delivered in RP tones, for being civil? He is one of the rudest, most dismissive, divisive politicians of his generation.
I've never noticed him being rude, unless you count lying down in the commons as rude.
He doesnt listen, he disrespects people, he makes things up but pretends he is speaking from authority, he is dismissive and arrogant to others.
And less than 1/3 know what being in the single market means (on both the up- and the down- side). The players all argue from "belief" and "principle" and an ignorant electorate [again, I emphasise, on both sides of the argument] suits that kind polemic.
Of course people don't know all the detail, but there's little evidence that the public support joining the EU as it is, when they get asked about the detail they aren't saying yes please to what it means to be in the EU again.
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
Yes, it's all over for Boris now. When the Conservatives lose the next election they'll want to move on from this whole 2010-2024 era and have a fresh start.
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
Yes, it's all over for Boris now. When the Conservatives lose the next election they'll want to move on from this whole 2010-2024 era and have a fresh start.
Jacob Rees-Mogg resigns as business secretary, and Brandon Lewis gone too. And sounds like Robert Buckland (who initially backed Sunak then switched to Truss in the summer) may be on the way out too… https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1584878813191671810
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
Hang on a moment. Is Dan mistaking poor attempts at Latin translation delivered in RP tones, for being civil? He is one of the rudest, most dismissive, divisive politicians of his generation.
I've never noticed him being rude, unless you count lying down in the commons as rude.
I think he is frequently rude in a "passive-aggressive" way - his habitual snide comments about colleagues (e.g. John Major) being a case in point.
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
Yes, it's all over for Boris now. When the Conservatives lose the next election they'll want to move on from this whole 2010-2024 era and have a fresh start.
That’s not how it went down in 97….
Well it kind of was? In 97 Ken Clarke would have been the continuity Thatcher/Major candidate. They went for Hague instead who at that time was VERY inexperienced. Mainly because he was eurosceptic it must be said but also because he was a fresh start candidate...
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
I think this is right. He will be yesterday's man from now on, with the only even remotely realistic come-back being to be LOTO after 2024. The idea that Johnson would want to be LOTO for at least five years seems highly dubious.
Events, dear boy...etc. As ever. But no I don't think so.
Lewis out, Mogg out - two unremarkable middling politicians. Good start.
Mogg is extraordinarily remarkable! Probably the most remarked upon politician of his level of seniority this century.....just that most of the remarks are not favourable.
The latter is too recent to have built up much dislike in office so I assume that's ideological, or Rishi doesn't want someone younger than him in the Cabinet.
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
Yes, it's all over for Boris now. When the Conservatives lose the next election they'll want to move on from this whole 2010-2024 era and have a fresh start.
That’s not how it went down in 97….
Well it kind of was? In 97 Ken Clarke would have been the continuity Thatcher/Major candidate. They went for Hague instead who at that time was VERY inexperienced. Mainly because he was eurosceptic it must be said but also because he was a fresh start candidate...
Though it didn't exactly work very well lol!
Yes and no. He was also Thatcher’s chosen candidate. That fixation didn’t die until Howard.
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
I think this is right. He will be yesterday's man from now on, with the only even remotely realistic come-back being to be LOTO after 2024. The idea that Johnson would want to be LOTO for at least five years seems highly dubious.
Events, dear boy...etc. As ever. But no I don't think so.
Once you’ve made your money, and if you’ve already been PM, LOTO is a great job. No actual work to do (let the ambitious Shadow Ministers worry about that).
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
Yes, it's all over for Boris now. When the Conservatives lose the next election they'll want to move on from this whole 2010-2024 era and have a fresh start.
That’s not how it went down in 97….
Well it kind of was? In 97 Ken Clarke would have been the continuity Thatcher/Major candidate. They went for Hague instead who at that time was VERY inexperienced. Mainly because he was eurosceptic it must be said but also because he was a fresh start candidate...
Though it didn't exactly work very well lol!
Yes and no. He was also Thatcher’s chosen candidate. That fixation didn’t die until Howard.
Yeah, I guess that's true about Thatcher. She was going a bit nuts then mind.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
The paymaster of the ERG has many questions over his head. It is a major step forward that he is gone.
The latter is too recent to have built up much dislike in office so I assume that's ideological, or Rishi doesn't want someone younger than him in the Cabinet.
Assume it's because it was only a reward post for backing Liz early.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
Those of you dismissing Johnson - I agree he probably doesn’t have the patience to be LOTO from 2024-2029.
But imagine a scenario where Sunak manages to win enough seats that Starmer has to rely on the Lib Dems, or even the SNP, too.
It’s more tempting a prospect for Boris to be LOTO then, and be ready to pounce on a potential collapse in the C+S agreement. He can claim that the Tories are the only party that can win a reliable majority - as he did in 2019. That might be a very convincing attack line - and the 2024 government might not last the full 5 years in such a scenario.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 2m Lot of people will be cheering Jacob Rees-Mogg’s departure. But he’s a decent man who always conducted his politics in a civil way.
The paymaster of the ERG has many questions over his head. It is a major step forward that he is gone.
I thought we all paid for the ERG? Haven't they been claiming their membership dues on expenses, as a "professional body" or something? Or is that all hooey?
I'm struggling to understand the idea that Russia's economic contraction will only be 3% of GDP. If it is based on the very limited information they are providing us with that seems foolish. Why on earth would you trust any of the figures currently emanating from Moscow. And even if they are accurate surely the figures they are withholding are going to be much more damning about their position.
Over a million have left the country. Many of those among the best paid and most educated section of the population. The mobilisation means taking a further half million out of the economy. Rumours of people going into hiding to avoid being conscripted. Their prisons are full to bursting. Their workforce mus now be down 1.5 million. Foreign companies have left Russia en masse. They are extremely reliant on western tech and do not have much home-grown industry. They cannot access western capital. What they can do is export their raw materials. Oil did rise sharply at the start of the war but has come down again and Russia is not selling it at full price with the massive logistical difficulties of getting it to India and China. Gas prices surged, maybe they made massive sums from European countries wanting to replenish their stocks in time for winter?
I maintain my opinion that the medium to long term forecast for the Russian economy seems woeful. Even their hydrocarbon industry will struggle without western expertise and they won't have gas revenues. But the idea they have bought time this year also feels sceptical to me. They may have dug into their remaining accessible foreign reserves but that won't be sustainable. Still even if it is only 3%, given the amount of GDP now being spent on the war effort I suppose it will feel considerably worse for most Russians.
They are spending their reserves (both men and currency)
Wars do strange things to economies.
German output apparently rose till quite late in the war. Which often used to argue strategic bombing failed. But then you look at individual big ticket weapons - production collapsed in 1944 for many of them.
Output of what? Is the question.
Again, I'd like to recommend Francis Spufford's book 'Red Plenty'. It's a very odd book, which goes into the way the Soviet economy seemed to be booming in the 1950s and 1960s - but in reality they were just kidding themselves.
It's important, as lying to ourselves about the economy is a trap that is all too easy to fall into. Fortunately, we've never quite done it enough yet to crash our entire system of democratic capitalism.
A chap I worked with did an in depth dive through Soviet oil production. He should have written a book - he even learnt USSR official accounting to read the books first hand. Spent years wandering around Russia.
His main finding - over the Soviet period, oil production consumed more than it produced. The Soviet Union would have been better off if they’d capped the wells…
He found out all kinds of odd stuff. For example, birth rate was an obsession in the USSR - WWII losses and the belief in a giant conscript army. When talking to doctors at a hospital he discovered that the bosses improved the birth stats. By including late term abortions….
Urgh, I sure hope not. I can see the logic (LBJ’s maxim as John Major so eloquently put it) but if she does have to be back round the table can she not get something where she won’t do too much damage, like Commons leader or something.
Big error. Not so much on policy, I'd understand that politically even if I disagreed, but having 'quit' for such a reason a period out of office is appropriate.
Jacob Rees-Mogg resigns as business secretary, and Brandon Lewis gone too. And sounds like Robert Buckland (who initially backed Sunak then switched to Truss in the summer) may be on the way out too… https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1584878813191671810
Keeping a nice balance, one useless toff dismissed, and one useless oik
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
Yes, it's all over for Boris now. When the Conservatives lose the next election they'll want to move on from this whole 2010-2024 era and have a fresh start.
That’s not how it went down in 97….
I am sure they will want to pop themselves in the blender, first... And then have a fresh start when that turns out to be extraordinarily painful.
Michael Ellis, the Attorney General, has entered the corridor leading to the Prime Minister’s parliamentary office as Rishi Sunak is expected to carry out a Cabinet reshuffle. Former Cabinet minister Gavin Williamson, who supported Mr Sunak, left the corridor shortly before Mr Ellis arrived.
"Congratulations to RishiSunak - I wish him well and, notwithstanding our political differences, will do my best to build a constructive working relationship with him in the interests of those we serve."
"That he becomes the first British Asian to become PM is a genuinely significant moment. It certainly makes this a special Diwali"
And then you go on to attack the policies, not the man nor his heritage nor his colour.
I think it shows more how crap that Labour MP is. Sturgeon's approach should be the response of any sane, decent person.
Yes it's not difficult to celebrate that aspect whilst attacking his politics. Although sometimes these comments are provoked in response to partisan hyperbole. Eg, "Sunak's ascent to PM shows the Tories are champions of diversity and that racism is dead and buried in Britain in 2022".
I do think it should be recognized that the Tories have had the first ethnic minority Prime Minister, three female Prime Ministers and now the first non-white Prime Minister. Meanwhile Labour have had an endless succession of white men in the role, with another one next in line. Does the Labour Party have a bigotry problem?
I think partially the Tories have been lucky.
That is, it needed to take some time after large-scale immigration from Commonwealth countries before this could have happened.
The country had to change, the sons and daughters, the grandsons and granddaughters of those first generations immigrants had to grow up and flex their political muscles. And so any party in power over the last decade could have achieved this. The Tories happened to be in power. They took the opportunity (for which they get the credit).
That said, Labour do seem to have been caught on the back foot -- I suspect the awkward tweets/sayings of Nadia Whitmore and Rupa Huq shows some of the real frustration of ethnic minority Labour MPs.
I think the lack of female Labour PMs is more shameful and requires more explaining.
There clearly have been excellent candidates, and the last Labour leadership election of 4 females plus dull SKS is not a good look.
I am very far from convinced that the best out of Rebecca Long-Bailey, Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips, Emily Thornberry and SKS is SKS.
I think the issue is the feed mechanisms via which parties get their candidates. If there is poorer representation of minorities in these places….
For example, banking and the law have fair(ish)* numbers of ethnic minorities. And increasing all the time.
Those of you dismissing Johnson - I agree he probably doesn’t have the patience to be LOTO from 2024-2029.
But imagine a scenario where Sunak manages to win enough seats that Starmer has to rely on the Lib Dems, or even the SNP, too.
It’s more tempting a prospect for Boris to be LOTO then, and be ready to pounce on a potential collapse in the C+S agreement. He can claim that the Tories are the only party that can win a reliable majority - as he did in 2019. That might be a very convincing attack line - and the 2024 government might not last the full 5 years in such a scenario.
Boris might well want to have a crack at LOTO but I think the Conservative Party as a whole will be ready to move on by then...
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
F**k it Leon, just when I was celebrating his almost certainly being gone for good!
If Boris had the 100 votes I can't believe that the reason he didn't stand was for any of that unity-of-the-party crap. More likely a delegation of Tory grandees approached him and it went like this: 'Boris, you know all those lucrative executive positions you'll be offered when you leave parliament? Well, if you try to become PM again we'll make sure they never happen.'
He’s not a pantomime villain. He’s not pure evil. All people are complex. He probably realised he’d only get to lead a leasable party AND honestly felt that would be bad for the country as well as him AND calculated his best chance of a second go is from opposition by acclamation.
Boris’ political time has surely come and gone, now
His job was
1 win the Brexit referendum 2 defeat Corbyn soundly 3 do Brexit
He did all that - and did pretty well on Ukraine and very well on vaccines
Now he will soak up the money. He will not get a Churchillian Restoration
I agree. But I suspect he entertains the fantasy there’s a chance. And this was the wrong moment for his fantasy to play out has he would wish.
But by trying now, he's damaged a chance for later however. But I don't see a route back for him now this decade. 2024 - Sunak win - that'll close off Boris for another five years. 2024 - Starmer win - that'll also close him off till 2029, and Boris won't do opposition I think. And 2029 itself? He'll be 66. A young whippersnapper in US terms but in this country we do like our PMs to be between 40 and 60 when taking office usually.
Those of you dismissing Johnson - I agree he probably doesn’t have the patience to be LOTO from 2024-2029.
But imagine a scenario where Sunak manages to win enough seats that Starmer has to rely on the Lib Dems, or even the SNP, too.
It’s more tempting a prospect for Boris to be LOTO then, and be ready to pounce on a potential collapse in the C+S agreement. He can claim that the Tories are the only party that can win a reliable majority - as he did in 2019. That might be a very convincing attack line - and the 2024 government might not last the full 5 years in such a scenario.
In that event, if Sunak wanted to stay as leader, the chances of Johnson being able to challenge him would be remote.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Hello.
But ... hang on.
Is this a change of mind? You come across today as in favour of this but only a matter of weeks ago you were pouring invective on "remoaners" and wokerati for their evil plotting that would see us rejoin the EU.
I don't have a problem if you've changed your standpoint but have you?
I’m merely observing a big shift in sentiment: in that poll. And noting that it gives Starmer a window of opportunity to get closer to the EU (and solve the NI issue)
I detest the idea of Rejoining. I also think it is unlikely
I am maybe persuadable on the SM. I was always a soft Leaver. I wanted us to go to EEA/EFTA as a holding position with minimal damage, then plot our course further out, over time
Not meaningful until people realise that Rejoin doesn't mean "on previous terms".
Urgh, I sure hope not. I can see the logic (LBJ’s maxim as John Major so eloquently put it) but if she does have to be back round the table can she not get something where she won’t do too much damage, like Commons leader or something.
This will have the weird "its a globalist coup" conspiracy lot doing their nut....
Eleanor Shawcross:
George Osborne's former deputy chief of staff went on to work for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation after her boss left the Treasury following the EU referendum vote.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Hello.
But ... hang on.
Is this a change of mind? You come across today as in favour of this but only a matter of weeks ago you were pouring invective on "remoaners" and wokerati for their evil plotting that would see us rejoin the EU.
I don't have a problem if you've changed your standpoint but have you?
I’m merely observing a big shift in sentiment: in that poll. And noting that it gives Starmer a window of opportunity to get closer to the EU (and solve the NI issue)
I detest the idea of Rejoining. I also think it is unlikely
I am maybe persuadable on the SM. I was always a soft Leaver. I wanted us to go to EEA/EFTA as a holding position with minimal damage, then plot our course further out, over time
Not meaningful until people realise that Rejoin doesn't mean "on previous terms".
Indeed. For one thing, the EU will only offer rejoin with immediate acceptance of the Euro.
They don’t want to go through this again, and it is quite clear that being in the Euro is what stopped Greece doing Grexit.
Mr. M, it's very unfair to say Labour know only how to spend money.
They also know how to borrow it.
That's long gone to the cliche graveyard in the sky.
Indeed. Labour has bugger all chance of borrowing money.
Indeed. If Labour get in in 2024 it would be like Labour elected in 77, without the opportunity of 3 years being Labour and splashing money around everywhere to meet all their promises to union paymasters just like Labour done in 1970s.
High interest rates high borrowing costs, bits and pieces of inflation are here to stay now, this new era, the Rishi and Starmer governments are constrained to this new era treating money as precious and some degree of austerity cutting back the state. Likely means both governments will be unpopular and fail at re election.
Decent speech by Sunak. But he is highly unlikely to win in ‘24. Starmer will take over… and do what?
I’ve always thought - and said on here - that the EU would become an issue if the polls reached 60/40 in favour of Rejoin. No government can ignore that
👇
It will become an issue but I see no prospect of Labour touching this in its first term. I also don't think 60:40 is good enough for the EU to risk having us back or for Labour to risk going near this. I think 70:30 is the kind of level where it would happen. Maybe in 10 years. It will happen though because Brexit was simply, objectively, the wrong decision and eventually enough people will see that for it to be overturned. And what a sad waste of everyone's time and energy it will have been.
60/40 is enough for Starmer to push for SM membership, especially at a time when business will be screaming for assistance
That’s do-able for Labour. And Starmer is a staunch Remainer who wanted a 2nd vote
It solves the NI problem. The EU will likely agree. FoM is the thorny bit. But in dark times I can see Starmer selling it successfully
Hello.
But ... hang on.
Is this a change of mind? You come across today as in favour of this but only a matter of weeks ago you were pouring invective on "remoaners" and wokerati for their evil plotting that would see us rejoin the EU.
I don't have a problem if you've changed your standpoint but have you?
I’m merely observing a big shift in sentiment: in that poll. And noting that it gives Starmer a window of opportunity to get closer to the EU (and solve the NI issue)
I detest the idea of Rejoining. I also think it is unlikely
I am maybe persuadable on the SM. I was always a soft Leaver. I wanted us to go to EEA/EFTA as a holding position with minimal damage, then plot our course further out, over time
Not meaningful until people realise that Rejoin doesn't mean "on previous terms".
To be fair, no-one knows what terms Rejoin would be on, other than “subject to a negotiation”.
Those of you dismissing Johnson - I agree he probably doesn’t have the patience to be LOTO from 2024-2029.
But imagine a scenario where Sunak manages to win enough seats that Starmer has to rely on the Lib Dems, or even the SNP, too.
It’s more tempting a prospect for Boris to be LOTO then, and be ready to pounce on a potential collapse in the C+S agreement. He can claim that the Tories are the only party that can win a reliable majority - as he did in 2019. That might be a very convincing attack line - and the 2024 government might not last the full 5 years in such a scenario.
If Sunak.has performed decently, it could be the first time since, I think, Wilson in 1970, that an ex-PM carrying on as LOTO could make sense.
Dear Jacob, I'm sorry I missed your sacking today. I hope never to see you back in office,
Yours
Y Doethur.
I think he is a very odd man. On the one hand, personally he is extremely courteous, as evidenced by labour MP Jess Philips, who has a lot of time for him. On the other I suspect his arrogance means a lot of the courtesy is for show, and he's actually rather self centred. I don't think he is towering intellect.
Wow. Norway arrested a "Brazilian" university researcher at University of Tromso, who studied "hybrid threats". The catch? He's a Russian spy, not a Brazilian professor. More to come soon. https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1584882325585768448
It was noticeable that Sunak stressed “control of our borders” in his speech. As a brown person he might feel able to take a firmer line on, say, Channel crossers
Sunak was a Brexiter way before it was important. Quite where the idea he isn't has come from I'm at a loss.
Yeah, it’s quite odd. May and Truss were both Hard Remain, yet pivoted to Full English Brexit
Sunak was a Brexiteer when the B word hadn’t been invented, yet now somehow seems rather Remainy
Meanwhile Starmer was 100% Remoaner and 2nd Voter and now appears determined to ignore Brexit altogether
A pleasing confection of ironies
Sunak needs to shore up his sovereignty flank and shows he gets it on immigration. Being seen as purely a super rich international financier will be his downfall.
Making a chocolate teapot the chief whip was never going to end well
Come on, Coffey out next.....
Coffey will stay IMHO. Element of continuity and didn’t seem to do such a terrible job at DWP. Needs to be moved from Health. Put her in local government or something not too high profile.
Wow. Norway arrested a "Brazilian" university researcher at University of Tromso, who studied "hybrid threats". The catch? He's a Russian spy, not a Brazilian professor. More to come soon. https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1584882325585768448
Making a chocolate teapot the chief whip was never going to end well
Come on, Coffey out next.....
Coffey will stay IMHO. Element of continuity and didn’t seem to do such a terrible job at DWP. Needs to be moved from Health. Put her in local government or something not too high profile.
Javid to health is the obvious logical appointment.
Comments
Sorry, he "resigned".
Downing Street is for the appointments generally, so they can walk out smiling.
I call that rude.
Phew.
Yours
Y Doethur.
https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1584878813191671810
Though it didn't exactly work very well lol!
Just saying.....
Events, dear boy...etc. As ever. But no I don't think so.
“You have power, Rishi Sunak. Use it. Rejoin the single market and customs union”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/25/rishi-sunak-rejoin-single-market-customs-union-brexit-lies
Sunak won’t do this. Starmer might
One govt source even suggests she might be back as home sec, perhaps in return for endorsing Sunak. Bold move, if true.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1584882018240057344
But imagine a scenario where Sunak manages to win enough seats that Starmer has to rely on the Lib Dems, or even the SNP, too.
It’s more tempting a prospect for Boris to be LOTO then, and be ready to pounce on a potential collapse in the C+S agreement. He can claim that the Tories are the only party that can win a reliable majority - as he did in 2019. That might be a very convincing attack line - and the 2024 government might not last the full 5 years in such a scenario.
Quite where the idea he isn't has come from I'm at a loss.
Karma all round...
His main finding - over the Soviet period, oil production consumed more than it produced. The Soviet Union would have been better off if they’d capped the wells…
He found out all kinds of odd stuff. For example, birth rate was an obsession in the USSR - WWII losses and the belief in a giant conscript army. When talking to doctors at a hospital he discovered that the bosses improved the birth stats. By including late term abortions….
Surely Sunak isn't that stupid?
Oh god, not Frank Spencer on the scene again?
For example, banking and the law have fair(ish)* numbers of ethnic minorities. And increasing all the time.
*some groups are very poorly represented, though.
But I don't see a route back for him now this decade.
2024 - Sunak win - that'll close off Boris for another five years.
2024 - Starmer win - that'll also close him off till 2029, and Boris won't do opposition I think.
And 2029 itself? He'll be 66. A young whippersnapper in US terms but in this country we do like our PMs to be between 40 and 60 when taking office usually.
Sunak was a Brexiteer when the B word hadn’t been invented, yet now somehow seems rather Remainy
Meanwhile Starmer was 100% Remoaner and 2nd Voter and now appears determined to ignore Brexit altogether
A pleasing confection of ironies
Eleanor Shawcross:
George Osborne's former deputy chief of staff went on to work for the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation after her boss left the Treasury following the EU referendum vote.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11351979/The-key-figures-Team-Rishi-expected-follow-new-PM-No10.html
They don’t want to go through this again, and it is quite clear that being in the Euro is what stopped Greece doing Grexit.
High interest rates high borrowing costs, bits and pieces of inflation are here to stay now, this new era, the Rishi and Starmer governments are constrained to this new era treating money as precious and some degree of austerity cutting back the state. Likely means both governments will be unpopular and fail at re election.
Come on, Coffey out next.....
Play the Con next leader market accordingly.
I don't think he is towering intellect.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1584882325585768448
Hmm
And quite a proportion of the rest too.