Agree. But there is a fascinating question, only to be guessed about at this moment.
In 1992 the Tories lost their reputation and nothing from 1992-1997 stopped them being thrown out in a landslide, despite having a fairly decent team trying to repair things.
Do things happen faster now? It it thinkable that in two years the Tories do the impossible and prevent a Labour victory. The 1990s feel like a vanished age now.
Rishi could, and should, construct a team, centrist and moderate, that appears more capable than Labour's. In particular the shadow CoE is not formidable in the sense that Brown or Darling were. This is a weakness.
Results other than a Labour led government next time could become thinkable. Bet accordingly.
If I had bet on a Labour government I’d take profit at this point. It’s unlikely to get b tree for them
But you are a right-wing tory and, forgive me for saying, unable therefore to be objective.
No party comes back from this polling debacle. Never has. Never will. Period.
They blew it. Lost the confidence of the British people.
If you want to bet on a Conservative Party victory of any sort you need to wait 15 years.
The polling move was so fast and violent that it strikes me as shallow.
Black Wednesday. 1992-7. It happens. Fast, violent, visceral, palpable, real, and long-lasting.
The tories are in for a shellacking next time and will then be out of power for at least a decade.
We can but hope. But @StillWaters has a point. In many ways the current polling swing is very different from and much more dramatic than 1992-7:
"Look at the share not the lead"
Looking at Tory share, 2019 look much more comparable.
Not saying there'll be a recovery for the Tories like that, I doubt there will be personally, but it's absolutely possible and has happened before.
True, but 2019 was a pretty unique set of circumstances. In particular, there was one thing wrong for the Conservatives - a lack of Brexit. That made it obvious where the missing Conservative voters were (Brexit Party) and how to win them back (Get Brexit Done).
That's not really the case now. Having a leader who is both honest and sane will help. But the big thing wrong for the government is that lots of voters are objectively broke and many more feel broke. And there's not a lot that can be done to win them back.
Circumstances are always unique, which is why we should learn from history but not assume it will repeat. But the premise was that No party comes back from this polling debacle. Never has. Never will. Period.
Well that Period. is wrong. Looking at share not lead as is advisable, 2019 was a comparable polling debacle and the Tories came back from that to increase their majority.
Will that happen again? No, probably not. Is there precedent though? Yes, there is.
I think it is more about trends than leads. Look how stable that Tory share is around 40%, until it has a catastrophic downward drop, which is then recovered in the run up to 2019.
The current polling shows a fairly steady decline from the peak at the last GE, crossover, and a sharp drop in the last few months (with no significant recovery for the 3rd party splitting the left).
I do love polling sometimes. Just did a survey, which opened asking if I'd heard of various sporting bodies (FA, ECB etc), and didn't select the options about horses. It then asks something like 'Just to check, have you heard of the Jockey Club?', and I select no, and then it is asking about my attitudes to horseracing. I can almost feel the disappointment in the survey that I have heard nothing, know nothing, and care nothing about horse racing (and cannot suggest how it might grab my interest).
Horses are nice enough animals, but I have never understood the fascination some people have with them. There is a whole subset of young women that seem to have a horse obsession bordering on mania!
Agree. But there is a fascinating question, only to be guessed about at this moment.
In 1992 the Tories lost their reputation and nothing from 1992-1997 stopped them being thrown out in a landslide, despite having a fairly decent team trying to repair things.
Do things happen faster now? It it thinkable that in two years the Tories do the impossible and prevent a Labour victory. The 1990s feel like a vanished age now.
Rishi could, and should, construct a team, centrist and moderate, that appears more capable than Labour's. In particular the shadow CoE is not formidable in the sense that Brown or Darling were. This is a weakness.
Results other than a Labour led government next time could become thinkable. Bet accordingly.
If I had bet on a Labour government I’d take profit at this point. It’s unlikely to get b tree for them
But you are a right-wing tory and, forgive me for saying, unable therefore to be objective.
No party comes back from this polling debacle. Never has. Never will. Period.
They blew it. Lost the confidence of the British people.
If you want to bet on a Conservative Party victory of any sort you need to wait 15 years.
Sridhar grew increasingly close to Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, during the pandemic and even agreed to be her personal trainer. She has frequently tried to distance Sturgeon from the “herd immunity” strategy at the outset of the pandemic, when the four nations of the UK agreed to delay lockdown to allow coronavirus to move through society.
Sridhar also sits on the UK government’s international best practice advisory group, offering lessons to UK ministers from the Covid response around the world. She has been a harsh critic of the UK government’s Covid strategy, but more forgiving of similar shortcomings in Sturgeon’s government.
Interestingly flicking through this thread there seems to be an air of optimism that there never was when Truss took over. It's obviously partly because Sunak is a more gracious and competent human being but i suspect it's also as IanB suggests the first real break from Johnson.
Truss was seen as continuity Johnson. Sunak doesn't. It feels different. I think it'll take a while before we're able to compute what a malign influence Johnson was but my guess is the Conservative party are now going to turn on him big time.
Correct. The Oaf and his Brexit are going to become huge scapegoats, not least within the Conservative Party. The counter-revolution begins.
(Modesty hinders me from highlighting which PBer predicted the counter-revolution.)
I am sure that @Roger will not mind if you credit him. He is very magnanimous that way!
Sridhar grew increasingly close to Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, during the pandemic and even agreed to be her personal trainer. She has frequently tried to distance Sturgeon from the “herd immunity” strategy at the outset of the pandemic, when the four nations of the UK agreed to delay lockdown to allow coronavirus to move through society.
Sridhar also sits on the UK government’s international best practice advisory group, offering lessons to UK ministers from the Covid response around the world. She has been a harsh critic of the UK government’s Covid strategy, but more forgiving of similar shortcomings in Sturgeon’s government.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
Advice please, you bunch of sage, well-informed seers.
I'm thinking about buying one of those Tado smart thermometers and seven of their smart TRVs. Prob about £600 all told.
Is it worth it? It's a lot to drop at once but could pay for itself after a few years. We're lucky that we fixed last year at a good rate, but it still might be worth going smart. Anybody got the Tado gear?
I don't use the thermostats, but I am a fan of the EVE gear
Interestingly flicking through this thread there seems to be an air of optimism that there never was when Truss took over. It's obviously partly because Sunak is a more gracious and competent human being but i suspect it's also as IanB suggests the first real break from Johnson.
Truss was seen as continuity Johnson. Sunak doesn't. It feels different. I think it'll take a while before we're able to compute what a malign influence Johnson was but my guess is the Conservative party are now going to turn on him big time.
Correct. The Oaf and his Brexit are going to become huge scapegoats, not least within the Conservative Party. The counter-revolution begins.
(Modesty hinders me from highlighting which PBer predicted the counter-revolution.)
The weather will have a huge impact on the UK politics this winter.
Right now we have mostly full European gas storage, still trending upwards, and extremely mild weather. The longer that continues, the further gas supply will last over winter without necessitating a spike in spot prices.
A very mild winter with lower prices and consumption would dramatically reduce the cost of the price cap to the government. That would create more fiscal freedom elsewhere.
For consumers the impact will be more limited to needing to use less energy and so spending less, as prices are extremely unlikely to fall below the cap.
Also wind power has been generating high percentages of demand recently. Some new wind farms have opened this year.
The Hornsea Wind Farm is a serious player. Hornsea Two (1.4 GW) became fully operational in August 2022, overtaking Hornsea One as the largest offshore wind farm in the world.
Hornsea 3 and 4, with approximate capacities of 1–2 GW and 1 GW, give it a maximum of 6 GW.
And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.
I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.
Well you haven't done enough until it's done. I'd always want to encourage them to do more, but I think that can be more easily achieved with a sense of optimism about how much has been done already.
We need to look at CFCs and the ozone hole. The Montreal Protocol was agreed in ?1988?, ten to fifteen years after the mechanism was first proposed, and only three years after the fist solid evidence was discovered by the British Antarctic Survey. It was amazingly fast work; industry adapted, and the problem has (mostly) been solved.
Likewise, the vast majority of governments around the world agree that climate change is a problem. Most of those are working towards 'fixing' the problem; but it is a slow process, especially when technological solutions are not in place. But there is a will, and there is progress. It's just that the CFC issue was many orders of magnitude easier to solve.
On the Telegraph Ukraine podcast yesterday one of their economics correspondents reported from Germany on how industry has been adapting to high gas prices. A BMW car plant in Munich has cut its gas use in half, as has a major chemicals plant.
These are huge strides forward and you wonder what might have been achieved over the last couple of decades if the same focus and determination had been applied then that is now coming to bear to deal with the gas crisis.
I'd agree, *if* the BMW plant is managing to produce exactly the same amount despite the reduction in gas usage, and it can manage that reduction permanently (i.e. it is not doing things like drawing down on stocks, despite JIT). Ditto the chemical plant.
But yes, there is lots industry and commerce can do. Heck, there's lots *we* can do as well. I just don't expect miracles.
So all we need now is for BMW not to build 2-3 tonne tanks, and for them not to be driven by hoons.
Interestingly flicking through this thread there seems to be an air of optimism that there never was when Truss took over. It's obviously partly because Sunak is a more gracious and competent human being but i suspect it's also as IanB suggests the first real break from Johnson.
Truss was seen as continuity Johnson. Sunak doesn't. It feels different. I think it'll take a while before we're able to compute what a malign influence Johnson was but my guess is the Conservative party are now going to turn on him big time.
Correct. The Oaf and his Brexit are going to become huge scapegoats, not least within the Conservative Party. The counter-revolution begins.
(Modesty hinders me from highlighting which PBer predicted the counter-revolution.)
I am sure that @Roger will not mind if you credit him. He is very magnanimous that way!
Rogerdamus is the one and only original damus. None if this Seandamus crap. Roger is a PB gem, and if he beat me to it, the glory is all his.
Just heard on GMS, the presenter saying that the PM will have to address the SNP, rising nationalism in Wales and in N Ireland too. Just a pity no one addressed the rise of British Nationalism because that’s why Britain is in the mess that it is today.
I thought the general accusation was the problem was due to English nationalism, since if British nationalism was rising, there would be less english/scottish/welsh/northern irish nationalism.
Advice please, you bunch of sage, well-informed seers.
I'm thinking about buying one of those Tado smart thermometers and seven of their smart TRVs. Prob about £600 all told.
Is it worth it? It's a lot to drop at once but could pay for itself after a few years. We're lucky that we fixed last year at a good rate, but it still might be worth going smart. Anybody got the Tado gear?
I did this in the summer. Amazon had an offer where 3 TVRs cost £139 but it’s suddenly £200?
It’s a great system so far but one note of caution. There’s a dongle thingie that has to be plugged by Ethernet into your router. And it speaks directly to every rad, it’s not a mesh. I have old thick chimney breasts and have had to position it totally centrally in the house not to have drop outs, with a long Ethernet cable neatly clipped to the ceiling back to an Ethernet port on the floor above.
Other thing to note, you don’t want the boiler to come on with every rad set to closed. I’ve left the towel rails with dumb TVRs as I figure it does not harm having them on every time the boiler is firing.
Installation is well explained, I’m a muppet and I managed it but it did take several hours to do the boiler bit and then every rad.
Interestingly flicking through this thread there seems to be an air of optimism that there never was when Truss took over. It's obviously partly because Sunak is a more gracious and competent human being but i suspect it's also as IanB suggests the first real break from Johnson.
Truss was seen as continuity Johnson. Sunak doesn't. It feels different. I think it'll take a while before we're able to compute what a malign influence Johnson was but my guess is the Conservative party are now going to turn on him big time.
Correct. The Oaf and his Brexit are going to become huge scapegoats, not least within the Conservative Party. The counter-revolution begins.
(Modesty hinders me from highlighting which PBer predicted the counter-revolution.)
It's clearly absurd to claim that Sunak sabotaged Truss, or indeed Boris. But if he did, he would go up in my estimation enormously as a political operator.
Yes. That one - Sunak the snake - is strictly for hard right loonytunes. It's a useful "tell" actually. Saves time.
Interestingly flicking through this thread there seems to be an air of optimism that there never was when Truss took over. It's obviously partly because Sunak is a more gracious and competent human being but i suspect it's also as IanB suggests the first real break from Johnson.
Truss was seen as continuity Johnson. Sunak doesn't. It feels different. I think it'll take a while before we're able to compute what a malign influence Johnson was but my guess is the Conservative party are now going to turn on him big time.
Correct. The Oaf and his Brexit are going to become huge scapegoats, not least within the Conservative Party. The counter-revolution begins.
(Modesty hinders me from highlighting which PBer predicted the counter-revolution.)
Just heard on GMS, the presenter saying that the PM will have to address the SNP, rising nationalism in Wales and in N Ireland too. Just a pity no one addressed the rise of British Nationalism because that’s why Britain is in the mess that it is today.
I thought the general accusation was the problem was due to English nationalism, since if British nationalism was rising, there would be less english/scottish/welsh/northern irish nationalism.
English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh self-governance = good
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
Just heard on GMS, the presenter saying that the PM will have to address the SNP, rising nationalism in Wales and in N Ireland too. Just a pity no one addressed the rise of British Nationalism because that’s why Britain is in the mess that it is today.
I thought the general accusation was the problem was due to English nationalism, since if British nationalism was rising, there would be less english/scottish/welsh/northern irish nationalism.
English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh self-governance = good
British Nationalism = bad
Please learn the basics.
I may not have been clear - my point was people often say Brexit was entirely down to the English, and so the Brexit rise is in fact about an english nationalism rise, not british, except superficially. Certainly there has not been a rise in a sense of british identity.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
It's clearly absurd to claim that Sunak sabotaged Truss, or indeed Boris. But if he did, he would go up in my estimation enormously as a political operator.
It's nice to think that someone might snake their way to the top of the political heap purely in order to render some great heroic service to the nation, but that would require a dual personality of sorts. I find it far more likely that someone prepared to treat their colleagues badly to get on is likely to adopt a similar approach to the British taxpayer.
Give it a rest.
The whole stab in the back, snake thing is getting tiresome.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
I'm generally surprised when someone is labelled Jewish and also wonder why we care. Only really relevant in the above statement if he's a follower of Judaism, I'd have thought.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
All true, but it would be even better if we could have amongst them a couple of people who did not believe in mythical gods and their made up stories.
I did not know (I probably missed it) that Sunak was Hindu or Schapps Jewish until yesterday and right now respectively (if the tweet is correct). I have no idea if any of the four are deep believers or practising, other than Charles (officially).
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
I'm generally surprised when someone is labelled Jewish and also wonder why we care. Only really relevant in the above statement if he's a follower of Judaism, I'd have thought.
How about a Buddhist at Defence?
On Shapps, I do wonder whether there was some misunderstanding. Truss in crisis mode, government falling around her. Someone says "Shapps is at the door, what shall we do with him?" and Truss says "Oh Gawd, send him home!"
Boris Johnson was begging for votes over the weekend in a “demeaning” attempt to return to Downing Street, according to Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
He said that Johnson had returned from his Caribbean holiday expecting at least 150 MPs to back him. “Boris was completely unexpectedly having to do this. He made no plans. He had no team,” said Duncan Smith.
He told LBC that Johnson found himself “struggling and begging people for votes. That was demeaning, really.”
The demise of Boris Johnson through this has been wonderful.
He has been made to look a complete fool.
For all who care for justice, or think there's something in karma, it has been glorious to behold.
Yet he did have the votes, bizarrely.
I think Penny has been the bigger fool - yes she'll get a good job, but she could have got 'the' job, by co-opting Boris and giving him something.
I think it was Boris who was looking to do the co-opting but her judgment was, once again, poor and somewhat delusional. She has talent on her feet, no question, but she needs to get a department, buckle down with it for an extended haul and learn a lot more about how government actually works.
What's the point? It's over. There is no way PM4PM is going to get a third season.
‘I name this bulk carrier..’
Firstly, I have no idea who that photo is meant to be of. Presumably PM? Secondly, whilst not a flattering photo, neither is she particularly fat. Let alone a 'bulk carrier'. Thirdly, let's see a photo of you, so we can 'admire' your svelte figure.
No?
Ah, the the Right Reverend Josias Jessopious has signed in.
Attention seeker dons swimsuit on terrestrial tv, slings and arrows follow, them’s the rules rev.
They're only the 'rules' if you're a stupid git.
You're awfully het up over a photo you have no idea of who it's meant to be. I have my stupid git rules, you your sanctimonious twat ones, chacun à son goût.
(Sighs theatrically)
You miss the point. You posted a picture of a woman in a swimsuit. Your comment was one about her weight - when the picture, although unflattering, did not show her to be particularly fat.
There were plenty of other things you could have said with that picture (e.g. the way it seems to mirror her political hopes). But you concentrated on her looks - when your comment seems very incorrect.
And deep in what passes for your soul, I think you know that - which is why you just throw stupid insults at me.
Lol, 'theatrically' is right at least.
After chucking stupid git and soullessness around then whining about stupid insults, I'll throw hypocrite into the mix.
It's clearly absurd to claim that Sunak sabotaged Truss, or indeed Boris. But if he did, he would go up in my estimation enormously as a political operator.
It's nice to think that someone might snake their way to the top of the political heap purely in order to render some great heroic service to the nation, but that would require a dual personality of sorts. I find it far more likely that someone prepared to treat their colleagues badly to get on is likely to adopt a similar approach to the British taxpayer.
Give it a rest.
The whole stab in the back, snake thing is getting tiresome.
The thing with Sunak is that he rightly, if a bit late, stabbed Johnson squarely in the front while looking him in the eye and explaining the reasons perfectly eloquently. Backstabber he ain't.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
Just heard on GMS, the presenter saying that the PM will have to address the SNP, rising nationalism in Wales and in N Ireland too. Just a pity no one addressed the rise of British Nationalism because that’s why Britain is in the mess that it is today.
I thought the general accusation was the problem was due to English nationalism, since if British nationalism was rising, there would be less english/scottish/welsh/northern irish nationalism.
English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh self-governance = good
British Nationalism = bad
Please learn the basics.
I may not have been clear - my point was people often say Brexit was entirely down to the English, and so the Brexit rise is in fact about an english nationalism rise, not british, except superficially. Certainly there has not been a rise in a sense of british identity.
British Nationalism increases in intensity as British identity declines. It is the death throes.
Self confident identities feel no need to oppress others. Cf Russia, China, Castile.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
I'm generally surprised when someone is labelled Jewish and also wonder why we care. Only really relevant in the above statement if he's a follower of Judaism, I'd have thought.
How about a Buddhist at Defence?
On Shapps, I do wonder whether there was some misunderstanding. Truss in crisis mode, government falling around her. Someone says "Shapps is at the door, what shall we do with him?" and Truss says "Oh Gawd, send him home!"
Aide: What about Chris Heaton-Harris? He's been pushing for a post
Truss: He deserves nothing but absolute shit
Aide to Heaton-Harris: Congratulations, the PM has offered you Northern Ireland Secretary.
I do love polling sometimes. Just did a survey, which opened asking if I'd heard of various sporting bodies (FA, ECB etc), and didn't select the options about horses. It then asks something like 'Just to check, have you heard of the Jockey Club?', and I select no, and then it is asking about my attitudes to horseracing. I can almost feel the disappointment in the survey that I have heard nothing, know nothing, and care nothing about horse racing (and cannot suggest how it might grab my interest).
Measuring just how deep is the lack of interest presumably has some utility, though ?
I expect the Tories to at least scramble from the polling depths with the arrival of Rishi. I'm reserving judgement on the man, but with Boris and Liz sent to the cornfield, it does feel like some terrible migraine has finally lifted.
Having only really been an adult under conservative led governments (my first GE vote was in 2010) - I remember quite clearly the argument at the time of austerity being "we need to sort government spending out and provide an economy that works for people, promotes growth, and keeps us safe when the next crisis hits". Well, 12 years down the line and people are still saying the economy is weak, that economic growth is poor and that the previous crisis broke government spending and the next one is just around the corner. So either the Cameron / Osborne project didn't actually do any of those things, or if it was on the pathway to doing that the successive May / Johnson / Truss governments stopped doing it. Either way - what is it that Tories really stand for or plan on doing if they are constantly saying the economy isn't good enough, but they're in control?
Well I went off you before finishing the first line. My thirties were the happiest time of my life. Fit enough to do stuff and enough money to do it. Enjoy.
@148grss I just realised that my comment could be read wrongly. I meant I'm envious of your age. I would love to be in my 30s again.
Advice please, you bunch of sage, well-informed seers.
I'm thinking about buying one of those Tado smart thermometers and seven of their smart TRVs. Prob about £600 all told.
Is it worth it? It's a lot to drop at once but could pay for itself after a few years. We're lucky that we fixed last year at a good rate, but it still might be worth going smart. Anybody got the Tado gear?
I did this in the summer. Amazon had an offer where 3 TVRs cost £139 but it’s suddenly £200?
It’s a great system so far but one note of caution. There’s a dongle thingie that has to be plugged by Ethernet into your router. And it speaks directly to every rad, it’s not a mesh. I have old thick chimney breasts and have had to position it totally centrally in the house not to have drop outs, with a long Ethernet cable neatly clipped to the ceiling back to an Ethernet port on the floor above.
Other thing to note, you don’t want the boiler to come on with every rad set to closed. I’ve left the towel rails with dumb TVRs as I figure it does not harm having them on every time the boiler is firing.
Installation is well explained, I’m a muppet and I managed it but it did take several hours to do the boiler bit and then every rad.
Thanks for that.
I have a bypass rad - no TRVs - in the hall where the thermostat will be, so that's not a problem - though I do wonder how efficient it is having to have the hall radiator come on every time another rad calls for heat.
It'll be a wired thermostat, I'm replacing like with like, so no wiring into the boiler. Though I am wondering if I should take the opportunity to switch to a wireless thermostat...
Not concerned about drop outs, don't think it'll be a problem.
It has been interesting to see the reaction from red wall Conservatives.
I hadn't fully appreciated their love for Boris and their sense of embittered rage at what has happened. For some reason, probably partly racist, they have it in for Rishi as the architect of Boris Johnson's downfall.
Of course, the real architect of Boris Johnson's downfall was Boris Johnson. A deeply, painfully, flawed individual who has got his comeuppance.
But I don't see the red wall warming to Rishi I'm afraid. They won't come back to vote for him.
So I think Labour leads in the 20%+ range to start with, perhaps possibly a 15%. And then as things start to bite through the winter, Labour will regularly be back up to 25%+
They are going to win a landslide. Nothing now will change it.
Johnson has skewed everything. The middle ground has always been where elections were won or lost except for the last one. A dispiriting repulsive narcissist (or populist as they call them) turned up trumpeting himself and a pack of lies and persuaded the uneducated and the feeble minded to follow him.
He then effectively took over the Tory Party. He and his disciples have now been dumped and we should be back to a reasonably level playing field. Who now convinces the public that they are the centre ground should win. Starmer's Labour have the advantage by virtue of not having the Johnson legacy to wash away having got rid of their own Svengali two years earlier.
Which is why a ritual and highly visible sacrifice of Johnson at and after the Privileges Committee really would be the Tories' best path.
He's not coming back, now, and he won't do any work as part of the team. So he's of no further use to them.
I agree. Nothing like a ritual sacrifice to reset the clock. The complete humiliation of Johnson would do the country a power of good. It might even start to heal the wounds of Brexit.
Indeed. So his life and career have finally found a worthwhile purpose!
This suggestion would make a good comment piece for the papers - perhaps the odd journo is lurking?
I do love polling sometimes. Just did a survey, which opened asking if I'd heard of various sporting bodies (FA, ECB etc), and didn't select the options about horses. It then asks something like 'Just to check, have you heard of the Jockey Club?', and I select no, and then it is asking about my attitudes to horseracing. I can almost feel the disappointment in the survey that I have heard nothing, know nothing, and care nothing about horse racing (and cannot suggest how it might grab my interest).
Measuring just how deep is the lack of interest presumably has some utility, though ?
Indeed, but hence why they will be disappointed I cannot suggest ways to change that. Perhaps I could have suggested letting jockies poke each other with sharp sticks, but I doubt it would help.
What an amazing speech, it gives you a glimpse of what might have been. Tragically the nation has been denied a visionary leader and a glorious future.
They’ve exhumed Nicholas Witchell! I thought a change of monarch brought on a change of royal correspondent!
I assumed they've recorded a series of pronouncements from him to cover all future occasions, with increasing flexibility as they go further into the future and things are more uncertain, like he's Hari Seldon.
And yet, according to some people I've seen on Twitter (yes, I know...) the government is doing *nothing* to avert the climate emergency.
I'd be open to the argument that they've not done enough (although you have to also keep the economy running), but they've certainly not done 'nothing'.
It drives me nuts when I hear claims like that, and all too often from politicians and campaigners who should know better. It is not just misleading it is simply lying. That the media lap this stuff up and rarely challenge such claims makes me even angrier.
Yes, me too. What has been achieved over the last 30 years has been astonishing. Why won't we celebrate this?
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
Good morning Troubadors. Polling wise there are a few questions to be answered 1) is the Tory average artificially low just because of the ClusterTruss and will that aspect immediately unwind? Her almost invisible 6% approval suggests yes. 2) Does Rishi get a bounce on top of that? And if so how much? 3) how much of Labours surge is 'ready to govern'/permanent vote switch and how much a natural reaction to a Tory vote strike
If Rishi follows May and Boris any bounce will reach its height from late November into Christmas/New Year
Did she just say we need growth or something? As I don't think anyone really disagrees with that, they just noted the mere act of saying it and ignoring the turmoil of having no real plan for it besides unfunded tax cuts did not help create it.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
I'm generally surprised when someone is labelled Jewish and also wonder why we care. Only really relevant in the above statement if he's a follower of Judaism, I'd have thought.
How about a Buddhist at Defence?
We have Fat Legolas at Defence (ht Dura ace); though I'm afraid I've forgotten what was the Elvish religion, or even if there was one.
Just heard on GMS, the presenter saying that the PM will have to address the SNP, rising nationalism in Wales and in N Ireland too. Just a pity no one addressed the rise of British Nationalism because that’s why Britain is in the mess that it is today.
I thought the general accusation was the problem was due to English nationalism, since if British nationalism was rising, there would be less english/scottish/welsh/northern irish nationalism.
English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh self-governance = good
British Nationalism = bad
Please learn the basics.
I may not have been clear - my point was people often say Brexit was entirely down to the English, and so the Brexit rise is in fact about an english nationalism rise, not british, except superficially. Certainly there has not been a rise in a sense of british identity.
British Nationalism increases in intensity as British identity declines. It is the death throes.
Self confident identities feel no need to oppress others. Cf Russia, China, Castile.
You have to feel sorry for our submarine commanders as they are about to receive yet another set of doomsday orders. They will wonder what is going on.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
I'm generally surprised when someone is labelled Jewish and also wonder why we care. Only really relevant in the above statement if he's a follower of Judaism, I'd have thought.
How about a Buddhist at Defence?
Braverman? A Buddhist firmly on the backbenches would complete the set nicely.
Good morning Troubadors. Polling wise there are a few questions to be answered 1) is the Tory average artificially low just because of the ClusterTruss and will that aspect immediately unwind? Her almost invisible 6% approval suggests yes. 2) Does Rishi get a bounce on top of that? And if so how much? 3) how much of Labours surge is 'ready to govern'/permanent vote switch and how much a natural reaction to a Tory vote strike
If Rishi follows May and Boris any bounce will reach its height from late November into Christmas/New Year
Following on my guesstimate is we get to an average of ca 45 28 with the occasional high single figures lead generating 'excitement'. If economic navigation is smooth perhaps we return to the pre BigDog defenestration status quo of high single figues average
Brexit freedoms! More freedoms allegedly says Truss for people who now have lost the right to live and work in 27 other European countries .
It seems to be the comfortable middle classes who squeal the most about Brexit. The same middle classes who:
1) fundamentally failed to help those better off than them benefit from being EU members, despite profiting mightily themselves 2) are so unused to losing that they continued to march against the inevitable for several years after the vote happened, and indeed after we have left
Shame they didn't put the efforts of 2) into changing their approach to 1)
Good morning Troubadors. Polling wise there are a few questions to be answered 1) is the Tory average artificially low just because of the ClusterTruss and will that aspect immediately unwind? Her almost invisible 6% approval suggests yes. 2) Does Rishi get a bounce on top of that? And if so how much? 3) how much of Labours surge is 'ready to govern'/permanent vote switch and how much a natural reaction to a Tory vote strike
If Rishi follows May and Boris any bounce will reach its height from late November into Christmas/New Year
It's going to be fascinating to see who is moving up to higher ground, and who are your aforementioned (cocktail clouded) troubadours merely attempting to speak in tongues.
Just heard on GMS, the presenter saying that the PM will have to address the SNP, rising nationalism in Wales and in N Ireland too. Just a pity no one addressed the rise of British Nationalism because that’s why Britain is in the mess that it is today.
I thought the general accusation was the problem was due to English nationalism, since if British nationalism was rising, there would be less english/scottish/welsh/northern irish nationalism.
English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh self-governance = good
British Nationalism = bad
Please learn the basics.
I may not have been clear - my point was people often say Brexit was entirely down to the English, and so the Brexit rise is in fact about an english nationalism rise, not british, except superficially. Certainly there has not been a rise in a sense of british identity.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
I'm generally surprised when someone is labelled Jewish and also wonder why we care. Only really relevant in the above statement if he's a follower of Judaism, I'd have thought.
How about a Buddhist at Defence?
We have Fat Legolas at Defence (ht Dura ace); though I'm afraid I've forgotten what was the Elvish religion, or even if there was one.
The Tolkien legendarium was based on worship of the Greek gods, translated into the angelic powers of Catholic theology. This was a device also adopted by CS Lewis in the Ransom trilogy especially notable in That Hideous Strength. You're welcome.
Just heard on GMS, the presenter saying that the PM will have to address the SNP, rising nationalism in Wales and in N Ireland too. Just a pity no one addressed the rise of British Nationalism because that’s why Britain is in the mess that it is today.
I thought the general accusation was the problem was due to English nationalism, since if British nationalism was rising, there would be less english/scottish/welsh/northern irish nationalism.
English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh self-governance = good
British Nationalism = bad
Please learn the basics.
I may not have been clear - my point was people often say Brexit was entirely down to the English, and so the Brexit rise is in fact about an english nationalism rise, not british, except superficially. Certainly there has not been a rise in a sense of british identity.
British Nationalism increases in intensity as British identity declines. It is the death throes.
Self confident identities feel no need to oppress others. Cf Russia, China, Castile.
When was British Nationalism more self-confident?
Possibly Blair's tenure when he felt confident enough to offer a minimal amount of devolution to the territories. Also though there was all that cool Brittania bollox I don't think he was quite so enthusiastic about wrapping himself in the Union flag as modern day UK pols.
As I've seen elsewhere: Waking up this morning, we have a Christian King, a Hindu Prime Minister, a Jewish Home Secretary and a Muslim Mayor of London.
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
I'm generally surprised when someone is labelled Jewish and also wonder why we care. Only really relevant in the above statement if he's a follower of Judaism, I'd have thought.
How about a Buddhist at Defence?
We have Fat Legolas at Defence (ht Dura ace); though I'm afraid I've forgotten what was the Elvish religion, or even if there was one.
Depending on which elves they were they might have come from the home of the Ainur, essentially the lesser gods, living alongside them, which would make the religion pretty central I suppose.
You have to feel sorry for our submarine commanders as they are about to receive yet another set of doomsday orders. They will wonder what is going on.
You have to feel sorry for our submarine commanders as they are about to receive yet another set of doomsday orders. They will wonder what is going on.
Do they change them each time?
Well, yes, because otherwise how does the PM know what's in them?
I presume though that they only get changed when in port, so it's quite possible Johnson's are still in one or two submarine safes.
Streeting not exactly shining on Newsnight. Refusing to accept a general election risks market instability again.
Nor answering why there wasn't a general election following Blair's transfer to Brown.
Labour's "talent" is very thinly spread - and that will be exposed over the next two years.
You need to rethink that one, because Markets would benefit from a General Election about economic direction in the same way the whole country would right now, it would bring everyone clarity.
Can’t have a General Election because it will definitely cause market instability is not a great argument. Business of governing doesn’t switch off during election campaigns, whilst markets will benefit from UK having a General Election with economic direction over the coming five years front and centre of the debate. It wasn’t “knowledge” of something coming or any clarity which sparked the markets under Truss, more the avoidance of detail, not sharing an OBR, and the on the day surprises in the budget.
Nor is it as straight forward as just give the dammed markets whatever they ask for to keep them happy, because going to war with the markets for the good of our nation is a definite argument in the debate right now, look at tonight’s Telegraph front page - Sunak must put the country before the markets.
A general election is not being held right now for purely political reasons, not economic ones, you are struggling to be honest about that. The markets and business would actually benefit from debate, and the clarity of which argument won that debate.
A general election is not being held right now because a Government with a nominal majority of c70 has a Prime Minister who could govern for a little over 2 more years without upsetting any constitutional apple carts.
I get that opponents of the Tories want them to piss off, but that is not enough. If people still want them gone in two years, they will be gone. But they still have two years to demonstrate that they can deliver on a manifesto that was blown massively off course by Covid and war in Europe. Boris Johnson and then briefly Liz Truss have been found unable to deliver; Rishi Sunak still has ample time to demonstrate he is the man for the job. He could surprise on both the up and downside. But he has every right to take the full two years before offering himself to the judgment of the voters.
Obviously, if his Party fractures and he loses that c70 seat majority, that is a different circumstance. If he cannot command the authority of the House, and nobody else can, we have an election. Otherwise, not until the clock runs out.
I gave your reply a like because it was well put and a I agree with it.
But then, you have given a completely different reason now than the stupid argument we can’t hold a GE because it risks market instability.
Just heard on GMS, the presenter saying that the PM will have to address the SNP, rising nationalism in Wales and in N Ireland too. Just a pity no one addressed the rise of British Nationalism because that’s why Britain is in the mess that it is today.
I thought the general accusation was the problem was due to English nationalism, since if British nationalism was rising, there would be less english/scottish/welsh/northern irish nationalism.
English, Irish, Scottish and Welsh self-governance = good
British Nationalism = bad
Please learn the basics.
I may not have been clear - my point was people often say Brexit was entirely down to the English, and so the Brexit rise is in fact about an english nationalism rise, not british, except superficially. Certainly there has not been a rise in a sense of british identity.
Alas, for Tory party members it was still preferable to elect a white woman than a brown man; just as well they won’t be able to vote on his appointment this time.
Good morning Troubadors. Polling wise there are a few questions to be answered 1) is the Tory average artificially low just because of the ClusterTruss and will that aspect immediately unwind? Her almost invisible 6% approval suggests yes. 2) Does Rishi get a bounce on top of that? And if so how much? 3) how much of Labours surge is 'ready to govern'/permanent vote switch and how much a natural reaction to a Tory vote strike
If Rishi follows May and Boris any bounce will reach its height from late November into Christmas/New Year
I don’t see Labour getting much mileage out of attacking Sunak on covid .
Whatever people think of furlough and the other costs run up it was an emergency situation with not months to design the perfect response.
I think "not mentioning THE EVENT" should be a staple of every party's campaigning - with the sole exception of Track & Trace, and even that should buried deep in a list of catastrophically mismanaged projects (of which the Fujitsu/Post Office debacle may be at the head; persecuted Post Office workers talking to camera could be quite strong).
I see the term 'globalist' being bandied about a lot. I get how it links in with a conspiracy 'shadow jewish government' vibe, but can anyone actually explain what it might mean beyond that? or are people just using words becuase they sound right?
A sad day, for both the country and the Conservative party.
The opportunity of the UK being a uniquely dynamic and innovative country, passed up by the MPs over the heads of the party membership, in favour of tax-rising, big-spending, globalist, authoritarian manegerialism, run by someone with no empathy for the average person.
It received little attention at the time because of Ukraine but it is as clear headed, coherent and intelligent analysis of both the weaknesses of the UK economy and the way to fix them as I have read from any politician ever. Capital, people, ideas. The need to save and invest, the need for governments to be facilitative rather than leading the way, the importance of research and taking advantage of our great Universities.
If these are his targets as PM and if he does not get blown off course by the costs of the gas subsidy program I think that is as good a policy for government as we have seen for a long, long time.
A good speech. I think this is the key extract:
The only way we can make a difference to the most stubborn and difficult problems is to focus; to decide where our efforts can have the biggest impact and relentlessly pursue those few chosen goals with all the energy and resources at our disposal. By trying to deliver everything we achieve nothing.
So in accelerating growth, I have three priorities. Priorities that I believe will foster a new culture of enterprise and deliver a higher growth rate. The first is to encourage greater levels of capital investment by our businesses. Second, we need to improve the technical skills of the tens of millions of people already in work. And third, we want to make this the most innovative economy in the world by driving up business investment in research and development.
Yes, I think that is spot on. Investment, training and innovation. Address our productivity problem head on in the hope and expectation that it improves competitiveness and reduces our balance of payments deficit. I am hopeful that he and Hunt can do some good work on this in the next 2 years, even if I am sanguine about the prospects of them remaining in office thereafter.
Productivity is the key.
When I was very young, in the 89s, I recall reading an article in the Economist which pointed out that a German steelworkers *cost* 20 times as much as an Indian steelworker. The German steelworker produced 23x as much steel (or similar). Which made the German employee *cheaper*
The mythology has taken root that lost cost economies are an easy win. In fact, when you consider productivity, the win is rarely that big. Plus those darned Chinese workers want pay rises as well…
I worked in one company, where a study showed that the cheapest place to develop software was London, Canary Wharf. Vs India, Eastern Europe, US etc. they had units around the world working on pretty much the same things - it was a perfect test case.
To do this requires smaller numbers of better trained employees, and increased investment in equipment (for industrial applications). It’s hard work, and doesn’t give you lines like “halving the wage bill” to impress the board. But in the long run, you have more control of your company and less exposure to transnational risks.
Brexit freedoms! More freedoms allegedly says Truss for people who now have lost the right to live and work in 27 other European countries .
It seems to be the comfortable middle classes who squeal the most about Brexit. The same middle classes who:
1) fundamentally failed to help those better off than them benefit from being EU members, despite profiting mightily themselves 2) are so unused to losing that they continued to march against the inevitable for several years after the vote happened, and indeed after we have left
Shame they didn't put the efforts of 2) into changing their approach to 1)
I’m a Labour supporter so quite used to losing ! If UK governments don’t invest in services that’s not the fault of the EU .
You have to feel sorry for our submarine commanders as they are about to receive yet another set of doomsday orders. They will wonder what is going on.
Do they change them each time?
Well, yes, because otherwise how does the PM know what's in them?
I presume though that they only get changed when in port, so it's quite possible Johnson's are still in one or two submarine safes.
Well that was a very odd and discomforting episode in British politics. I still can’t really make Truss out at all.
I wonder what she'll decide to do with her future? She's only 47.
We currently have three ex-PMs in the Commons, which must be the highest number for a while.
A sad aspect of this is she and her family will need round the clock protection for the rest of their lives. And for what? Six weeks in No. 10 and a couple of trips to Chequers.
I see the term 'globalist' being bandied about a lot. I get how it links in with a conspiracy 'shadow jewish government' vibe, but can anyone actually explain what it might mean beyond that? or are people just using words becuase they sound right?
Globalist to the Trussite fans = Living in the real inter connected world to the rest of us
You have to feel sorry for our submarine commanders as they are about to receive yet another set of doomsday orders. They will wonder what is going on.
Do they change them each time?
Well, yes, because otherwise how does the PM know what's in them?
I presume though that they only get changed when in port, so it's quite possible Johnson's are still in one or two submarine safes.
They might just as well keep them all, and pick one at random if the moment ever came. The deterrent effect would be the same.
Well that was a very odd and discomforting episode in British politics. I still can’t really make Truss out at all.
I wonder what she'll decide to do with her future? She's only 47.
We currently have three ex-PMs in the Commons, which must be the highest number for a while.
I was thinking about that. Two former PMs happens a lot (not least because of the Heath sulk) but three might take us back to at least the thirties. Lloyd-George on the back benches and some turbulence. Was Ramsay MacDonald still an MP when Chamberlain replaced Baldwin?
Comments
The current polling shows a fairly steady decline from the peak at the last GE, crossover, and a sharp drop in the last few months (with no significant recovery for the 3rd party splitting the left).
That's a markedly different trend from 2019.
Whatever people think of furlough and the other costs run up it was an emergency situation with not months to design the perfect response.
Sridhar also sits on the UK government’s international best practice advisory group, offering lessons to UK ministers from the Covid response around the world. She has been a harsh critic of the UK government’s Covid strategy, but more forgiving of similar shortcomings in Sturgeon’s government.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/27d32e84-53b0-11ed-a03e-f7ac672386
(disagree on defence spending - I think logic steers to less)
You can disagree with personal politics, but that is a victory for a diverse, multicultural Britain - and we should be proud.
https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1584802272638562305
https://www.evehome.com/en/eve-thermo
Integrates easily with Apple Home, Philips Hue lighting and Amazon Echo
Johnson
Braverman
Patel
Rees Mogg
Truss
Dorries
Zahawi
Gove
Hancock
Williamson.......
I saw one that was about as pointed as a rhinoceros horn up the arse. Does that count?
It’s a great system so far but one note of caution. There’s a dongle thingie that has to be plugged by Ethernet into your router. And it speaks directly to every rad, it’s not a mesh. I have old thick chimney breasts and have had to position it totally centrally in the house not to have drop outs, with a long Ethernet cable neatly clipped to the ceiling back to an Ethernet port on the floor above.
Other thing to note, you don’t want the boiler to come on with every rad set to closed. I’ve left the towel rails with dumb TVRs as I figure it does not harm having them on every time the boiler is firing.
Installation is well explained, I’m a muppet and I managed it but it did take several hours to do the boiler bit and then every rad.
British Nationalism = bad
Please learn the basics.
Good morning PB
The whole stab in the back, snake thing is getting tiresome.
I'm generally surprised when someone is labelled Jewish and also wonder why we care. Only really relevant in the above statement if he's a follower of Judaism, I'd have thought.
How about a Buddhist at Defence?
Michael Howard déjà vu?
William Hague déjà vu?
IDS déjà vu?
Miliband déjà vu?
Corbyn déjà vu?
May déjà vu?
Oaf déjà vu?
Truss déjà vu?
So many to choose from.
Rarely has the phrase “good riddance to bad rubbish” been so richly richly deserved.
The reality is I am as subtle as I am modest.
After chucking stupid git and soullessness around then whining about stupid insults, I'll throw hypocrite into the mix.
Umm Liz is that really the right angle to go for?
Self confident identities feel no need to oppress others. Cf Russia, China, Castile.
Truss: He deserves nothing but absolute shit
Aide to Heaton-Harris: Congratulations, the PM has offered you Northern Ireland Secretary.
I have a bypass rad - no TRVs - in the hall where the thermostat will be, so that's not a problem - though I do wonder how efficient it is having to have the hall radiator come on every time another rad calls for heat.
It'll be a wired thermostat, I'm replacing like with like, so no wiring into the boiler. Though I am wondering if I should take the opportunity to switch to a wireless thermostat...
Not concerned about drop outs, don't think it'll be a problem.
Are you glad you got it?
This suggestion would make a good comment piece for the papers - perhaps the odd journo is lurking?
Cameron: Oops.
May: I'm sorry.
Johnson: You bastards.
Truss: I was right.
What has been achieved over the last 30 years has been astonishing. Why won't we celebrate this?
1) is the Tory average artificially low just because of the ClusterTruss and will that aspect immediately unwind? Her almost invisible 6% approval suggests yes.
2) Does Rishi get a bounce on top of that? And if so how much?
3) how much of Labours surge is 'ready to govern'/permanent vote switch and how much a natural reaction to a Tory vote strike
If Rishi follows May and Boris any bounce will reach its height from late November into Christmas/New Year
A Buddhist firmly on the backbenches would complete the set nicely.
1) fundamentally failed to help those better off than them benefit from being EU members, despite profiting mightily themselves
2) are so unused to losing that they continued to march against the inevitable for several years after the vote happened, and indeed after we have left
Shame they didn't put the efforts of 2) into changing their approach to 1)
Wales voted for Brexit.
You really wish it hadn’t happened and you’ll be dealing with the consequences for years.
What was I thinking? Was I even thinking?
We currently have three ex-PMs in the Commons, which must be the highest number for a while.
I presume though that they only get changed when in port, so it's quite possible Johnson's are still in one or two submarine safes.
But then, you have given a completely different reason now than the stupid argument we can’t hold a GE because it risks market instability.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/25/rishi-sunak-britain-first-asian-prime-minister
Alas, for Tory party members it was still preferable to elect a white woman than a brown man; just as well they won’t be able to vote on his appointment this time.
When I was very young, in the 89s, I recall reading an article in the Economist which pointed out that a German steelworkers *cost* 20 times as much as an Indian steelworker. The German steelworker produced 23x as much steel (or similar). Which made the German employee *cheaper*
The mythology has taken root that lost cost economies are an easy win. In fact, when you consider productivity, the win is rarely that big. Plus those darned Chinese workers want pay rises as well…
I worked in one company, where a study showed that the cheapest place to develop software was London, Canary Wharf. Vs India, Eastern Europe, US etc. they had units around the world working on pretty much the same things - it was a perfect test case.
To do this requires smaller numbers of better trained employees, and increased investment in equipment (for industrial applications). It’s hard work, and doesn’t give you lines like “halving the wage bill” to impress the board. But in the long run, you have more control of your company and less exposure to transnational risks.
The deterrent effect would be the same.