An embarrassment of riches …. or maybe just an embarrassment. – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Surely if Bozo is back in No 10 that resignation list is complete irrelevant.TheScreamingEagles said:
Typo on my part, Boris Johnson as leader leads to Starmer as next PM after Truss.rottenborough said:
"But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election"Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.ThePoliticalParty said:What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
This happens before he becomes PM?
How do the mechanics on that work? The party splits?
Resignations and defections lead to the Tory majority in the Commons being wiped out, add in the potential 8 by elections from the Boris Johnson's resignation honours list....
Does Liz get a resignation list as that will be fun.0 -
If Johnson wins and the government loses its majority, is it such a wild chance?Casino_Royale said:numbertwelve said:
Yes, I think a 2022 GE is good value provided that The timetable allows. From a bit of cursory research (DYOR) the time from dissolution to GE is 25 working days which if done by end October/early November would make a December GE just about possible.noneoftheabove said:
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.
Why not just post me your money or flush it down the toilet instead?0 -
They’re heading for the political Big Sleep.ydoethur said:
If they impose that drunken criminal on us a second time, I hope they never have a quiet night's sleep again.kle4 said:
Well, it also slowed because unlike me most of them have not been having bad insomnia.AlistairM said:
It looks to me that all the Boris-ultras came out immediately to declare their support and now looks to be slowing considerably. One hopes that is the case at least. Tories need some boring competence until the next general election. If they can demonstrate that they should be able to climb back up towards 30% if swing-back comes back in. If they continue to in-fight then they face an extinction level event.Casino_Royale said:
It's up to 15 x anonymous backers this morning - if you take them off his total of 52 Boris is already behind Rishi, who's on 41 named backers.numbertwelve said:I found Guidos spreadsheet very helpful in the previous contest. Sad to see it just descend into blatant Boris ramping “1922 board”? “CCHQ Vice Chair” (x2)?
The interesting question that should be asked is (if true) why so many MPs don't want to go on the record with their support.0 -
Helicopter or drone? The latter surely costs peanuts compared to the former.paulyork64 said:BBC have Naga live in Downing Street. Not sure anything is happening there today. She should be in a HoC corridor.
Yesterday they had a helicopter doing live shots of Downing Street during the drama. What was that supposed to help us with?0 -
I don't know that they have a track record in political polling that we can judge them against, but then Angus Reid were considered a top-rate pollster in Canadian politics and they came rather unstuck.Andy_JS said:
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Their Labour share is actually a touch below the current average, so it's only with the Tory share that they are a step away from the crowd.1 -
Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/15833402716510248962 -
I hadn't even noticed that but you're right. I think it's already won out.ydoethur said:
He's too fat to.CarlottaVance said:Another sceptic of Johnson running;
Johnson won’t run. Just a hunch. But he won’t.
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583354774052749312
And when did we start adopting that stupid Americanism 'run' rather than 'stand?'0 -
I've often wondered is the reporters ARE. actually in Downing Street. Or whether it's a mocked up background.paulyork64 said:BBC have Naga live in Downing Street. Not sure anything is happening there today. She should be in a HoC corridor.
Yesterday they had a helicopter doing live shots of Downing Street during the drama. What was that supposed to help us with?
Lots of leaves blowing about yesterday though!
And good morning one and all!0 -
It will be RishiRochdalePioneers said:
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.TOPPING said:Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
Rishi will select a relatively sensible Cabinet, have relatively sensible policies and in 2024 have a relatively sensible GE campaign with the private target of getting around 200-225 seats as a base to rebuild on after the GE.
DYOR 👍4 -
They had too much money from the licence fee so needed to burn some with a chopper?paulyork64 said:BBC have Naga live in Downing Street. Not sure anything is happening there today. She should be in a HoC corridor.
Yesterday they had a helicopter doing live shots of Downing Street during the drama. What was that supposed to help us with?0 -
How? Tory leadership contest collapses into an infighting pit. No majority as multiple factions busy trying to remove the other. Chuck calls Starmer to the Palace and asks him to pull the non-mental MPs together? Or Chuck dissolves parliament completely and calls an election himself?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.ThePoliticalParty said:What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.0 -
In such a situation a GE would surely be set for January, not squeezed in before Christmas.numbertwelve said:
If Johnson wins and the government loses its majority, is it such a wild chance?Casino_Royale said:numbertwelve said:
Yes, I think a 2022 GE is good value provided that The timetable allows. From a bit of cursory research (DYOR) the time from dissolution to GE is 25 working days which if done by end October/early November would make a December GE just about possible.noneoftheabove said:
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.
Why not just post me your money or flush it down the toilet instead?2 -
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It probably should.Andy_JS said:"Tory MPs have a 'patriotic duty' to call for an election - Lib Dem leader"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63338261
Being patriotic probably doesn't extend to calling an election when your party is on 14% in the polls.
Though self-interest will of course override patriotism.2 -
I guess that’s where my question arises. Can’t find a definitive answer as to GE timing. I’ve seen 25 days after dissolution mooted, but I don’t know if that’s a FTPA quirk.Benpointer said:
In such a situation a GE would surely be set for January, not squeezed in before Christmas.numbertwelve said:
If Johnson wins and the government loses its majority, is it such a wild chance?Casino_Royale said:numbertwelve said:
Yes, I think a 2022 GE is good value provided that The timetable allows. From a bit of cursory research (DYOR) the time from dissolution to GE is 25 working days which if done by end October/early November would make a December GE just about possible.noneoftheabove said:
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.
Why not just post me your money or flush it down the toilet instead?0 -
No Vice “Chairs” but three Vice “Presidents”Benpointer said:How many CCHQ Vice Chairs are there? I see two of them are supporting Johnson according to Guido
https://www.conservatives.com/organisation/party-structure-and-organisation0 -
And? Remember Wednesday was a VoNC in the Government but beyond removing the PM it's had none of the normal consequences because a lot of sane MPs abstained and you can't remove both previous PMs.CarlottaVance said:Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1583340271651024896
I really don't see much wrong with Bozo taking a few weeks off when his appearance doesn't actually matter with the Government having a majority of 70.0 -
When we started assessing the runners rather than the standers ?ydoethur said:
He's too fat to.CarlottaVance said:Another sceptic of Johnson running;
Johnson won’t run. Just a hunch. But he won’t.
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583354774052749312
And when did we start adopting that stupid Americanism 'run' rather than 'stand?'0 -
Weirdly the most recent guido post is actually more cautious on both Boris running and the desirability of that, despite the nomination ramping.0
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Not great for the climate either.BartholomewRoberts said:
They had too much money from the licence fee so needed to burn some with a chopper?paulyork64 said:BBC have Naga live in Downing Street. Not sure anything is happening there today. She should be in a HoC corridor.
Yesterday they had a helicopter doing live shots of Downing Street during the drama. What was that supposed to help us with?1 -
Imagine "sources close to Brandon Lewis" might be reaching for the cola and paracetamol around now.
https://twitter.com/elliottengage/status/15833569105224704011 -
I actually think Shagger would be the best candidate for the party. He probably can't save them, I'm not sure anyone can, and he's likely to damage them further but with him the mandate stuff pretty much goes away and so too the pressure for an early General Election.RochdalePioneers said:
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.TOPPING said:Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
In my view, Boris is the difference between a spring 2023 GE and spring 2024. If the choice is between looking foolish and opposition the Tories will choose foolish. That choice will still lead them into opposition, but will delay it.0 -
Can Starmer be next PM ?
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government.
KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters.
Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely.
If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.2 -
Elect Bozo and I'm not 100% sure what Rishi nor Hunt would do - I can't see either of them working with him.Unpopular said:
I actually think Shagger would be the best candidate for the party. He probably can't save them, I'm not sure anyone can, and he's likely to damage them further but with him the mandate stuff pretty much goes away and so too the pressure for an early General Election.RochdalePioneers said:
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.TOPPING said:Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
In my view, Boris is the difference between a spring 2023 GE and spring 2024. If the choice is between looking foolish and opposition the Tories will choose foolish. That choice will still lead them into opposition, but will delay it.0 -
Doesn’t say a lot for his political antennae that he’s in the Caribbean when his successor is evidently in serious trouble.eek said:
And? Remember Wednesday was a VoNC in the Government but beyond removing the PM it's had none of the normal consequences because a lot of sane MPs abstained and you can't remove both previous PMs.CarlottaVance said:Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1583340271651024896
I really don't see much wrong with Bozo taking a few weeks off when his appearance doesn't actually matter with the Government having a majority of 70.1 -
Boris wins, Boris suspended, Boris recall petition successful is very 2022/3
For Tory foes his return is the dream scenario of eliminating them as a party of government or opposition.1 -
I predict one of the candidates who gets 100 backers will end up receiving less than 100 votes2
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I can’t wait to see the reaction on Boris backing MPs faces when the return of the messiah makes things worse. Not that I think any of them actually care about the country anymoremoonshine said:
Only two thirds of 2019 Tory voters “certain to vote”. That’s a lot of stay-at-homes that a new leader might coax back.Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.121 -
Angus Reid were regarded as the "gold standard" for about 5 years IIRC.LostPassword said:
I don't know that they have a track record in political polling that we can judge them against, but then Angus Reid were considered a top-rate pollster in Canadian politics and they came rather unstuck.Andy_JS said:
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Their Labour share is actually a touch below the current average, so it's only with the Tory share that they are a step away from the crowd.0 -
Are we 100% confident Sunak will actually stand?
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.2 -
Ah, you must be right. Another combination that would loom larger if a single ubiquitous term had been used.mwadams said:
Interesting - I assumed t***s was cognate with c***s on that cloud.Mexicanpete said:
If the various terms for ordure (s**t, s***e, c**p and t***s) were combined into one, that word has the makings of the most prominent word in the cloud.TheScreamingEagles said:Indeed.
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If they're sensible, it will be. But as we're already seeing from the scramble for column inches by self-serving nonentities, let alone their lazy criminal ex-leader's cronies, this group is not sensible. They're deranged (or a least a huge chunk of them are), and they don't give a flying fuck about the country they're supposed to be governing.londonpubman said:
It will be RishiRochdalePioneers said:
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.TOPPING said:Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
Rishi will select a relatively sensible Cabinet, have relatively sensible policies and in 2024 have a relatively sensible GE campaign with the private target of getting around 200-225 seats as a base to rebuild on after the GE.
DYOR 👍0 -
Good morning, Punters, and a big congratulations to TSE whose bet on a sub-15% poll for the Tories has come in.
This must be one of the smartest bets ever struck on PB - bold, decisive, and correct. The man himself will be along later I expect, but may be too modest to mention it, so make sure you give him a round of applause as he enters.9 -
It might be an advantage to have a PM that can lick his own arse rather than expect others to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I could live with that.ydoethur said:
Perhaps he would do better as PM and we put Truss onto killing mice?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, point 12, I disagree.
On two occasions I was in Number 10, I saw mice, Larry saw them, and he either ran away or just rolled over.
Killer instincts? Nah, as Chief Mouser, he was as successful as Liz Truss as PM.2 -
We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.0
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I agree.Pulpstar said:Can Starmer be next PM ?
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government.
KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters.
Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely.
If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.
But it is still worth a cheeky fiver on Starmer as next PM at 140/1.0 -
If another Tory MPs says that Boris Johnson is a rogue but a winner, it will be “the moment that Tonstant Weader Fwowed up” (with apologies to Dorothy Parker reviewing The House at Pooh Corner in 1928)
https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1583361773674954752
As Tim, late of this parish, observed, Johnson has only ever won against antisemitic pensioners….3 -
Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.0
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I agree with the final 2 sentences but not the rest.Unpopular said:
I actually think Shagger would be the best candidate for the party. He probably can't save them, I'm not sure anyone can, and he's likely to damage them further but with him the mandate stuff pretty much goes away and so too the pressure for an early General Election.RochdalePioneers said:
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.TOPPING said:Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
In my view, Boris is the difference between a spring 2023 GE and spring 2024. If the choice is between looking foolish and opposition the Tories will choose foolish. That choice will still lead them into opposition, but will delay it.
The mandate stuff would not go away. Labour were already ahead in the polls and calling for a GE due to Borisian scandals, they wouldn't stop because he was back.
The mandate talk is always either pretext or something additional, not requirement for calls for a GE.0 -
Good morningkle4 said:Weirdly the most recent guido post is actually more cautious on both Boris running and the desirability of that, despite the nomination ramping.
I really do not think Johnson is going to put himself forward unless he is confident he can get into the last two and win
He really does not do humiliation which it would be if he failed0 -
He won't last that long. The party will be trying to kill him at every turn.londonpubman said:
It will be RishiRochdalePioneers said:
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.TOPPING said:Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
Rishi will select a relatively sensible Cabinet, have relatively sensible policies and in 2024 have a relatively sensible GE campaign with the private target of getting around 200-225 seats as a base to rebuild on after the GE.
DYOR 👍0 -
This actually makes sense, too.eek said:Tories have just changed the rulebook by the looks of it.
Only the proposer and seconder is going to be formally identified - the other 98 are going to be anonymous.
I suspect that adds to Bozo's chances.
Members of the current government (especially whips, chair and vice chairs of party and 1922 ctte members) often don't declare publicly for reasons of party unity.0 -
No they didn't, the Progressive Conservatives no longer exist. Today's Conservative Party of Canada is a product of the merger of the PCs and populist right Canadian Alliance in 2003.StuartDickson said:
A Canada scenario is the least of the Tories’ worries. They recovered very well from the 2 seat nadir.Andy_JS said:
That wasn't what I was doing. 14% would be a Canada 1993 result for the Tories.StuartDickson said:
Shoot the messenger.Andy_JS said:
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
It never helps.
The scenario that really ought to worry you is a Liberal Party fate.
The Liberals were overtaken by Labour as the main non Tory Party on voteshare and seats, even on that PeoplePolling poll the Tories are still the main non Labour Party on voteshare.
It should also be noted the Peston poll yesterday had 30% of voters preferring Boris as PM to Starmer and 27% preferring Sunak as PM to Starmer. Se either becoming Tory leader should give at least a 10 to 15% bounce for the Tories
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583136338169036807?s=20&t=K2Qzk9HgrZqqTswmeVmb0g
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Nah, shows he was not involved at all, nossir. He was at dentist appointment on holiday I believe.CarlottaVance said:
Doesn’t say a lot for his political antennae that he’s in the Caribbean when his successor is evidently in serious trouble.eek said:
And? Remember Wednesday was a VoNC in the Government but beyond removing the PM it's had none of the normal consequences because a lot of sane MPs abstained and you can't remove both previous PMs.CarlottaVance said:Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1583340271651024896
I really don't see much wrong with Bozo taking a few weeks off when his appearance doesn't actually matter with the Government having a majority of 70.1 -
Never trust a Tory’s word! 😄ThePoliticalParty said:I predict one of the candidates who gets 100 backers will end up receiving less than 100 votes
0 -
Boris wins the leadership election but can't command a majority of MPs in the House as 50-60 split. Starmer is then more likely to command one that he is and so the King calls for him and he's next PM.DecrepiterJohnL said:
How does that work? How do you get from Truss, to Boris calling an election, to Starmer, without settling on Boris? Is there a PM on 1st January market?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.ThePoliticalParty said:What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
All in the next 2 weeks.2 -
Another fun one in there is “brewery”!Mexicanpete said:
Ah, you must be right. Another combination that would loom larger if a single ubiquitous term had been used.mwadams said:
Interesting - I assumed t***s was cognate with c***s on that cloud.Mexicanpete said:
If the various terms for ordure (s**t, s***e, c**p and t***s) were combined into one, that word has the makings of the most prominent word in the cloud.TheScreamingEagles said:Indeed.
1 -
"Bozo will never go if he is PM".Scott_xP said:
Braverman "was resigned" by a PM who wanted her to go.RochdalePioneers said:Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
BoZo will never go if he is PM
What options are available to Johnson for him to continue past a January 6th style event should the polls not go his way, or better still to avoid polling at all?0 -
This year, yes.numbertwelve said:
If Johnson wins and the government loses its majority, is it such a wild chance?Casino_Royale said:numbertwelve said:
Yes, I think a 2022 GE is good value provided that The timetable allows. From a bit of cursory research (DYOR) the time from dissolution to GE is 25 working days which if done by end October/early November would make a December GE just about possible.noneoftheabove said:
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.
Why not just post me your money or flush it down the toilet instead?0 -
They broke OGH's golden rule that the most accurate pollster was the one that gave the worst scores for Labour. Since then all such nostroms about polling have been discarded at an accelerating rate.Andy_JS said:
Angus Reid were regarded as the "gold standard" for about 5 years IIRC.LostPassword said:
I don't know that they have a track record in political polling that we can judge them against, but then Angus Reid were considered a top-rate pollster in Canadian politics and they came rather unstuck.Andy_JS said:
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Their Labour share is actually a touch below the current average, so it's only with the Tory share that they are a step away from the crowd.0 -
That would explain Guido's count.Mortimer said:
This actually makes sense, too.eek said:Tories have just changed the rulebook by the looks of it.
Only the proposer and seconder is going to be formally identified - the other 98 are going to be anonymous.
I suspect that adds to Bozo's chances.
Members of the current government (especially whips, chair and vice chairs of party and 1922 ctte members) often don't declare publicly for reasons of party unity.
But, of course, it works for other candidates too.0 -
Not sure Jeremy Hunt would like that....CarlottaVance said:If another Tory MPs says that Boris Johnson is a rogue but a winner, it will be “the moment that Tonstant Weader Fwowed up” (with apologies to Dorothy Parker reviewing The House at Pooh Corner in 1928)
https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1583361773674954752
As Tim, late of this parish, observed, Johnson has only ever won against antisemitic pensioners….1 -
CCHQ
Chair Sir Jake Berry
VCs
Sara Britcliffe (Youth)
Saqib Bhatti (Business)
Alexander Stafford (Policy)0 -
Boris should put his dog forward then....Theuniondivvie said:
It might be an advantage to have a PM that can lick his own arse rather than expect others to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I could live with that.ydoethur said:
Perhaps he would do better as PM and we put Truss onto killing mice?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, point 12, I disagree.
On two occasions I was in Number 10, I saw mice, Larry saw them, and he either ran away or just rolled over.
Killer instincts? Nah, as Chief Mouser, he was as successful as Liz Truss as PM.1 -
Make Johnson a Lord, on the basis he's as drunk as one. And at the same time, makes him ineligible to be Party Leader. Job's a good 'un.eek said:
Surely if Bozo is back in No 10 that resignation list is complete irrelevant.TheScreamingEagles said:
Typo on my part, Boris Johnson as leader leads to Starmer as next PM after Truss.rottenborough said:
"But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election"Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.ThePoliticalParty said:What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
This happens before he becomes PM?
How do the mechanics on that work? The party splits?
Resignations and defections lead to the Tory majority in the Commons being wiped out, add in the potential 8 by elections from the Boris Johnson's resignation honours list....
Does Liz get a resignation list as that will be fun.1 -
Surely Johnson would be appointed PM, be tested in the House and only then lose the job. PM for a day. And he'd call a general election not say send for Keith.Casino_Royale said:
Boris wins the leadership election but can't command a majority of MPs in the House as 50-60 split. Starmer is then more likely to command one that he is and so the King calls for him and he's next PM.DecrepiterJohnL said:
How does that work? How do you get from Truss, to Boris calling an election, to Starmer, without settling on Boris? Is there a PM on 1st January market?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.ThePoliticalParty said:What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
All in the next 2 weeks.2 -
Suppose Tim M is anywhere close to correct that Boris will get 100+ nominations. (He says 140 apparently).
Boris therefore comes in the top 2. Obviously if he comes second he will take it to the party members and probably win.
If there really is a serious number of current MPs who would not stay in the party under Boris (30-40?) then they could if willing bring down a Boris government by joining everyone else in a VONC and cause a GE.
Is that a possibility, and what are the chances?0 -
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
1 -
And that's the best argument for him not running now.Andy_JS said:Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
Jesus wept but there could be another contest to come next year. This parliament still has 2 years and 3 months to run.0 -
Test cricket I know, but its not that long ago that the WI were humiliating England. This calendar year. Astonishing to think we won 6 out of 7 tests since then.ydoethur said:West Indies disintegrating more imposingly than a Truss government.
I bet Michael Holding isn't the only one talking sadly about the good ol' days...1 -
Yes, I am 100% confident Sunak will stand.El_Capitano said:Are we 100% confident Sunak will actually stand?
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.0 -
I don't think he'd forgo a chance to be PM, but I don't expect him to remain as an MP for the full length of the next Parliament.El_Capitano said:Are we 100% confident Sunak will actually stand?
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.0 -
Much the same way Labour and the SNP did, I imagine.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
1 -
How are people like Christopher Chope allowed to become an MP - let alone be knighted0
-
It would happen during the members vote phase so KCIII knew before it was final.Pulpstar said:Can Starmer be next PM ?
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government.
KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters.
Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely.
If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.
I agree it's very unlikely but it's probably a 3-5% chance - not a 0.5% chance - so I'm interested in Starmer above 50/1.1 -
But not on the Board - according to their website.Pulpstar said:CCHQ
Chair Sir Jake Berry
VCs
Sara Britcliffe (Youth)
Saqib Bhatti (Business)
Alexander Stafford (Policy)
0 -
My worry is that a large proportion of the conservatives now follow that sort of view by default.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
0 -
Do you think he is too short?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I am 100% confident Sunak will stand.El_Capitano said:Are we 100% confident Sunak will actually stand?
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
In the betting markets.4 -
My feeling is the same - as also with Trump - its as much about missing being the centre of attention as any genuine intention to return to the heavy lifting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good morningkle4 said:Weirdly the most recent guido post is actually more cautious on both Boris running and the desirability of that, despite the nomination ramping.
I really do not think Johnson is going to put himself forward unless he is confident he can get into the last two and win
He really does not do humiliation which it would be if he failed
The smart money is probably on laying Johnson - I've had a little dabble but am made nervous by having been stung the last time I laid him0 -
Boris can lie to Tory MPs and tell them what they want to hear.CarlottaVance said:If another Tory MPs says that Boris Johnson is a rogue but a winner, it will be “the moment that Tonstant Weader Fwowed up” (with apologies to Dorothy Parker reviewing The House at Pooh Corner in 1928)
https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1583361773674954752
As Tim, late of this parish, observed, Johnson has only ever won against antisemitic pensioners….
Maybe they'd prefer that rather than reality.1 -
But then Stuart it's all relative.StuartDickson said:We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
My favourite, Jess Phillips has disappointed on every outing over the last month, but even then she is not at Truss, Kwarteng, Braverman, JRM, Badenoch ( I could go on, and on) levels of shite.1 -
If memory serves, he was a former leader of Wandsworth Council where he consistently set the lowest rates in the country and therefore became a poster boy for Thatcherism. He was nicknamed 'Chopper' Chope by the residents for his cuts to local services but oversaw a huge influx of middle-class Londoners which turned Battersea from a safe Labour seat to a moderately safe Tory seat. A favourite Tory trick was to film a PPB along the boundary between Lambeth and Wandsworth contrasting the two.Razedabode said:How are people like Christopher Chope allowed to become an MP - let alone be knighted
So basically, he knew the right people and pushed the right buttons. A bit like Corbyn.3 -
In a sane world, the prospect of the election of Boris Johnson initiating an early general election, in combination with the polls, would frighten Tory MPs sufficiently to prevent him getting 100 nominations.algarkirk said:Suppose Tim M is anywhere close to correct that Boris will get 100+ nominations. (He says 140 apparently).
Boris therefore comes in the top 2. Obviously if he comes second he will take it to the party members and probably win.
If there really is a serious number of current MPs who would not stay in the party under Boris (30-40?) then they could if willing bring down a Boris government by joining everyone else in a VONC and cause a GE.
Is that a possibility, and what are the chances?
In a sane world.1 -
Brian Moore
@brianmoore666
·
17h
How do you think Nadine Dorries is feeling about the possibility of Johnson's Second Coming?0 -
I think she lacks the penetration.Pulpstar said:Brian Moore
@brianmoore666
·
17h
How do you think Nadine Dorries is feeling about the possibility of Johnson's Second Coming?1 -
I've tried to model some tactical voting in Scotland and whichever way I do it the LDs still lose all their seats under the polls conducted in Scotland. I've got two main scenarios - "fuck independence" and "fuck the Tories". Can weight the relative strength of each.
The SNP do very well out of FPTP. My only insight is that Scotland is SNP except for the inner cities which just about start swinging to Labour again.1 -
Incredible video of a cruise missile being taken out by Ukrainian air defences.
Downing of a cruise missile over Zaporozhia.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/15833648054646865924 -
There's no need to be small about such things.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you think he is too short?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I am 100% confident Sunak will stand.El_Capitano said:Are we 100% confident Sunak will actually stand?
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
In the betting markets.0 -
Once again, from Scotland: it’s like living above a meth lab.
https://twitter.com/lornamhughes/status/1583082019508346881?s=46&t=sLIoGP5rqkjG-0o5cYbF1g0 -
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
0 -
In safe seats, MPs are chosen by party members.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
And, bless 'em, we've got recent evidence of the quality of their political judgement.1 -
Yes. It looks bad for the Tories on 14% now, but there really are ways it could still get worse. It's hard to see the party uniting around any new leader. The economic and government finances situation is really bad. They could fall to third in the polls and still resist an election, and public opinion could really harden against them.Casino_Royale said:
And that's the best argument for him not running now.Andy_JS said:Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
Jesus wept but there could be another contest to come next year. This parliament still has 2 years and 3 months to run.
It's been less than a year since the Owen Paterson vote. Imagine the last year repeated twice over.
I've always argued that it's better to be in government than opposition, that there's never a good election to lose. But I wonder whether the Tories are now so ungovernable that they would be better off getting into opposition as soon as possible rather than destroying their relationship with the voters with another disastrous couple of years in government.1 -
Starmer isn't going to be PM before an election IMO.Pulpstar said:Can Starmer be next PM ?
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government.
KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters.
Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely.
If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.1 -
Hunt didnt in 2019, albeit because he wanted a bigger role than offered I'd bet. If he were now he'd presumably demand a free hand in the economy, but he could not trust Boris's word to do so.eek said:
Elect Bozo and I'm not 100% sure what Rishi nor Hunt would do - I can't see either of them working with him.Unpopular said:
I actually think Shagger would be the best candidate for the party. He probably can't save them, I'm not sure anyone can, and he's likely to damage them further but with him the mandate stuff pretty much goes away and so too the pressure for an early General Election.RochdalePioneers said:
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.TOPPING said:Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
In my view, Boris is the difference between a spring 2023 GE and spring 2024. If the choice is between looking foolish and opposition the Tories will choose foolish. That choice will still lead them into opposition, but will delay it.0 -
Fair point, well made.Mexicanpete said:
But then Stuart it's all relative.StuartDickson said:We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
My favourite, Jess Phillips has disappointed on every outing over the last month, but even then she is not at Truss, Kwarteng, Braverman, JRM, Badenoch ( I could go on, and on) levels of shite.0 -
I think @HYUFD is right, if Boris became leader there would be a bounce, but only because they have dropped so unimaginably low. And then there will be the chaos that will follow day after day with Boris as PM. There is a high probability he will be suspended and subject to a by election, Tory MPs are likely to rebel in huge numbers, etc. It will be chaos. And all this starts and ends with Boris and the nutters that worship him.Andy_JS said:Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
2 -
That's an exaggeration. Scotland has its faults, but even allowing for John Swinney it isn't that bad.StuartDickson said:Once again, from Scotland: it’s like living above a meth lab.
https://twitter.com/lornamhughes/status/1583082019508346881?s=46&t=sLIoGP5rqkjG-0o5cYbF1g1 -
I agree.Andy_JS said:
Starmer isn't going to be PM before an election IMO.Pulpstar said:Can Starmer be next PM ?
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government.
KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters.
Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely.
If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.0 -
We could hire the SNP to run England.StuartDickson said:We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
1 -
They are putting most of their excess cash aside to pay for the thousands upon thousands of employees they will be sending to Glasto next year.BartholomewRoberts said:
They had too much money from the licence fee so needed to burn some with a chopper?paulyork64 said:BBC have Naga live in Downing Street. Not sure anything is happening there today. She should be in a HoC corridor.
Yesterday they had a helicopter doing live shots of Downing Street during the drama. What was that supposed to help us with?1 -
You've never heard of safe seats? Both main parties (and the SNP in Scotland, in recent times) have duffers safe from any consequence.Andy_JS said:
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
3 -
Nah, meth labs make money.StuartDickson said:Once again, from Scotland: it’s like living above a meth lab.
https://twitter.com/lornamhughes/status/1583082019508346881?s=46&t=sLIoGP5rqkjG-0o5cYbF1g1 -
The other alternative is that enough MPs pledge to leave the party (cross the floor or more likely sit as independents) such that Boris would immediately become PM of a minority Government and risk humiliation in an immediate general election. Hero to zero to hero to zero who broke up the Party - just stay out and keep taking the speaking engagement money, Boris.Casino_Royale said:
And that's the best argument for him not running now.Andy_JS said:Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
Jesus wept but there could be another contest to come next year. This parliament still has 2 years and 3 months to run.1 -
They can't even run a small shipyard in Glasgow or a half-decent police service. Letting them loose in England would not end well.Andy_JS said:
We could hire the SNP to run England.StuartDickson said:We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
1 -
A tiny critique there.ydoethur said:
There's no need to be small about such things.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you think he is too short?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I am 100% confident Sunak will stand.El_Capitano said:Are we 100% confident Sunak will actually stand?
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
In the betting markets.0 -
I had an idea this morning for balancing MP and member votes: approval voting. First MPs vote for as many candidates as they like. Then members get to vote on all the candidates who got a vote from at least two thirds of the MPs. That way members have a say but can't impose a leader who doesn't have a clear majority of MPs able to accept them as a reasonable choice.
1 -
I give it 3 minutes.Pulpstar said:Brian Moore
@brianmoore666
·
17h
How do you think Nadine Dorries is feeling about the possibility of Johnson's Second Coming?
0 -
Ever been to Christchurch?Andy_JS said:
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
0 -
Quite ironic really given they've been consistgently in favour of electoral reform - but if the Tories and Labour will insist on FPTP ...Eabhal said:I've tried to model some tactical voting in Scotland and whichever way I do it the LDs still lose all their seats under the polls conducted in Scotland. I've got two main scenarios - "fuck independence" and "fuck the Tories". Can weight the relative strength of each.
The SNP do very well out of FPTP. My only insight is that Scotland is SNP except for the inner cities which just about start swinging to Labour again.1 -
Could it be worse?ydoethur said:
They can't even run a small shipyard in Glasgow or a half-decent police service. Letting them loose in England would not end well.Andy_JS said:
We could hire the SNP to run England.StuartDickson said:We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
0 -
That was a very fine catch.0
