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An embarrassment of riches …. or maybe just an embarrassment. – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346
    Another one bites the dust for Scotland. Not the best shot and a fairly straightfoward catch, unlike the first two.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    IanB2 said:

    mickydroy said:

    Recent local government elections do not equate to Labour 55% Tory 23%, I know they are localised, but can someone explain, in my eyes the Tories are not bottoming out, although they should be

    IMHO it's about lack of enthusiasm for Labour. That doesn't mean that voters aren't itching to give the Tory government a good kicking when we finally get the chance - but the reaction to some council by-election is more that they don't give a **** rather than enthusiasm to go out and back the Labour candidate.

    If Johnson comes back, I'd tell pollsters I'll vote Labour myself, and there is a reasonable chance I might actually go through with it come the GE. But I have no real enthusiasm for them - just a desire to see the Tories out of government - and they won't be getting my vote in any other elections that might come along.
    Yes, I think this is right, and that's one major difference between now and the mid 90s - Blair was actually popular in his own right.

    The likely consequence, I would suggest, is that whatever majority Sir Keir gets at the next election, he'll find his "popularity" disappearing pretty quickly once he starts making decisions which inevitably upset some people.

    One of the complaints about Truss's mini budget was that she hadn't laid the groundwork by setting forth the policies before trying to implement them. Sir Keir should have been rolling the pitch for at least the last six months.
  • #ReadyForRish!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Ghedebrav said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Chess champions suing each other sums up the age we live in.

    I don't think this case is black and white. I think they're both pawns of big business.
    Rookie error.
    Some bona FIDE terrible punning here.
    And getting stale
  • Andy_JS said:

    mickydroy said:

    Recent local government elections do not equate to Labour 55% Tory 23%, I know they are localised, but can someone explain, in my eyes the Tories are not bottoming out, although they should be

    The Tories gained a seat from the LDs last night in Suella Braverman's constituency.
    I am sure the whole Tory Party is rejoicing at that news.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Chess champions suing each other sums up the age we live in.

    I don't think this case is black and white. I think they're both pawns of big business.
    Rookie error.
    He should get a mate to check his legal advice.
    $100m? He could buy a castle with that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    MaxPB said:

    If Tory MPs contrive to put Boris on the ballot paper then they deserve everything that's coming to them in 2024. A complete and utter wipe out. They'll finish on under 100 seats.

    And it will be a lot sooner than 2024….
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Chess champions suing each other sums up the age we live in.

    I don't think this case is black and white. I think they're both pawns of big business.
    Rookie error.
    Nice try, but 'rookie' isn't anything to do with chess, it's a corruption of 'recruit.' You need to improve your thin king.
    You pawned him there.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,346
    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Chess champions suing each other sums up the age we live in.

    I don't think this case is black and white. I think they're both pawns of big business.
    Rookie error.
    Nice try, but 'rookie' isn't anything to do with chess, it's a corruption of 'recruit.' You need to improve your thin king.
    You pawned him there.
    Thank you. I practice my punning all knight to get good at it.
  • novanova Posts: 690
    mickydroy said:

    Recent local government elections do not equate to Labour 55% Tory 23%, I know they are localised, but can someone explain, in my eyes the Tories are not bottoming out, although they should be

    Even when polling leads are huge, the actual election results are nowhere near as dramatic. No-one has got close to a 20pt lead in a general election for nearly 100 years, but we've regularly seen leads higher than 20pts in polling.

    Easier to protest on a survey than in the voting booth.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 641
    It was interesting walking the dog yesterday afternoon and again this morning. Talk about cut through. Unanimous unprompted opinion (from Brexit-voting Tory Romford) is that the Tories are useless and there should be an election. Boris coming back is a joke. I suggested Starmer would be a better bet and nobody disagreed. These were almost all people who never talk about politics but I know to be generally Tory voting and pro-Brexit.

    Anecdata of course but make of it what you will.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    nova said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Once again, from Scotland: it’s like living above a meth lab.

    https://twitter.com/lornamhughes/status/1583082019508346881?s=46&t=sLIoGP5rqkjG-0o5cYbF1g

    Nah, meth labs make money.
    A study by the Economist, years back, showed that in the cocaine trade (far more stable) nearly everyone made less than minimum wage. The ratio of big money guys to peons was such that working a MacDonalds was far better - orders of magnitude more chance that they would give you a loan to start your own branch. That plus the whole death/prison thing.
    I wish I'd known that before accepting a new job offer...

    Edit: It does make think of an episode of American Dad, where Stan is infiltrating a rebel/terror group and stirring them up with HR style complaints about lack of holidays, overtime pay, not getting to keep looted valuables and the like. And the best - "You're telling me child soldiers make less money than adult soldiers? That is morally indefensible!"
    IIRC they worked out that the delivered cost of cocaine, if run by a pharmaceutical company at the scale of the illegal trade, was something like $50... a kilo. Essentially the supply chain is a gang of idiots all stealing from each other.

    This is why legalisation of drugs *should* wipe out the illegal providers overnight - they could be undercut to prices they can't offer. And leave room for vast taxation and profits.
    This was also in Freakonomics (something like, "Why drug dealers still live with their mums?").

    Their answer wasn't that they were idiots for working in a dangerous job for little money, but that they were hoping to rise to the top, where the real money was. They might have been idiots for taking the risk for such a small chance, but they were ambitious idiots.
    Indeed. Get Rich Quick Or Die Trying.

    The Economist suggested that the problem was, as often is the case, ignorance of probability. Much more chance of getting rich working at McDonalds, but that possibility wasn't as prominent.
    Though looking at the economic argument alone misunderstands motivation for organised crime.

    It's dealt with brilliantly (of course) in The Wire, with the clashing approaches of Stringer Bell, the wannabe businessman, and Avon Barksdale ('I'm just a gangster I suppose... I want my corners'). For some it's about money, sure.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Chess champions suing each other sums up the age we live in.

    I don't think this case is black and white. I think they're both pawns of big business.
    Rookie error.
    Nice try, but 'rookie' isn't anything to do with chess, it's a corruption of 'recruit.' You need to improve your thin king.
    You pawned him there.
    Thank you. I practice my punning all knight to get good at it.
    There wasn't any defence to it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,000

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.

    Hunt wont work with him presumably???

    Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.

    "Johnson has no interest in economics"

    Johnson leaves economics to his chancellor. Truss' problem was that she was far too interested in economics.

    Boris Gov't was economically fine tbh - it was the other bits people had an issue with.
    If you consider jacking up taxes on people who work for a living, in order to boost welfare and cut taxes for those who don't, economically fine ...
    It didn't cause a meltdown at least.
    Not convinced that "managed decline" is much better than turmoil that could lead to growth.
    Truss and Kwarteng's turmoil has done economic damage. No chance of it leading to growth.

    But the status quo ante wasn't good enough either. It was simply bleeding out at a slower rate.
    Sometimes damage is needed to make a change for the better. Axing the heinous Health and Social Care Levy was absolutely the right thing to do and worthwhile having Truss as PM if only for seeing that be stillborn.

    But even that was only taking us back to the status quo ante before Sunak.

    Truss and Kwarteng had the right overall idea, but we need a good way to get there.
    Yes, sometimes the path to a better future takes us through a difficult present, but it's cargo cult thinking to conclude that willfully causing economic damage will consequently make things better.

    I'd take the Hippocratic approach - first do no harm. It might be that the best approach (chemotherapy, amputation) involves some short-term harm to avoid greater harm in the future, and to start on the road to recovery, but I think you'd better have a pretty convincing case for that before you start inflicting harm.

    It's not good enough to say the status quo is imperfect and so we have to smash it all up and try again.
    Barty is not dissimilar to @Dura_Ace in his revolutionary politics.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    No, if I had meant that I would have said it...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,084
    edited October 2022
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:


    Morning all.

    Slightly surreal experience of the tiny river (catchment area 15 sqm) that rises about half a mile from my house being one of only 2 flood warnings in the country.

    The other one was the slightly less tiny river it runs into.

    Presumably that was the Maunder?
    Maun not Maunder. It's the one that Mansfield is named for. Quite a large number of watermills historically, and one at Ollerton is some sort of museum with a very well-regarded cafe, that has to be booked as it is busy. Still has a waterwheel in place, I think.

    I do wonder if I can do a bimble down the Maun to there; it's under 15 miles each way.

    This year there was even wild swimming on the King's Mill Reservoir (why?), which is ... interesting.

    For the politics, the small lake with one of 3 sources is where Jason Zadrozny (him of what I think is still one of the biggest swings in Lib Dem history) sat in a canoe making a video explaining how clever he was to have created a floating Duck Island; obviously planning to be an MP, and could still make it.
    Very small river.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,529
    edited October 2022
    Looking forward to Jolyon Maugham's response to Rishi Sunak being appointed PM.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    IanB2 said:

    mickydroy said:

    Recent local government elections do not equate to Labour 55% Tory 23%, I know they are localised, but can someone explain, in my eyes the Tories are not bottoming out, although they should be

    IMHO it's about lack of enthusiasm for Labour. That doesn't mean that voters aren't itching to give the Tory government a good kicking when we finally get the chance - but the reaction to some council by-election is more that they don't give a **** rather than enthusiasm to go out and back the Labour candidate.

    If Johnson comes back, I'd tell pollsters I'll vote Labour myself, and there is a reasonable chance I might actually go through with it come the GE. But I have no real enthusiasm for them - just a desire to see the Tories out of government - and they won't be getting my vote in any other elections that might come along.
    Quite. To be blunt there is a huge dearth of talent across the political spectrum. In addition a landslide Labour victory could produce an enormous number of extremists in the PLP whose leader has enough questionable views in his political past to frighten this voter. It would not be a recipe for good government.
    For me the biggest problem facing the UK is that there is now a level of entitlememnt expectation requiring governments to 'solve' everyone's personal financial problem form the shortage of French au pairs in Hampstead to the slightly more serious issues of social care and basic health outcomes. We really need a government with tha authority to tell us some hard truths about what is possible and what is not.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,741

    Hmm
    image

    Is that Bakhmut comment supposed to be a misplaced attempt at trolling given they’ve still not taken it? Or a genuine question.
  • Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,529
    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    The least-worst outcome is a technocratic government run by Sunak and Hunt. The Italian solution to political turmoil.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited October 2022
    Guido's spreadsheet claims Boris has the support of 9 unnamed whips.

    I only think there are ~18 government whips, albeit the list available online is from, er, May 2022.

    Some of them surely are already public backers.

    Does anyone know the government whip list?

    {edit: found it]
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,741

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    I enjoyed the joke by the Beatles in the Peter Jackson Get Back series about the Hong Kong flu.

  • AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    Boris then makes it parliament vs the people
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    moonshine said:

    Hmm
    image

    Is that Bakhmut comment supposed to be a misplaced attempt at trolling given they’ve still not taken it? Or a genuine question.
    Fairly certain it is trolling. They have been sending all their best troops (Wagner group) against Bakhmut for months and made pretty much no progress.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
  • Telegraph now saying boris has 150 supporters. Its a done deal hes the next pm. Back him hard
  • Hes at 3.2 now on betfair
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,000
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Chess champions suing each other sums up the age we live in.

    I don't think this case is black and white. I think they're both pawns of big business.
    Rookie error.
    Nice try, but 'rookie' isn't anything to do with chess, it's a corruption of 'recruit.' You need to improve your thin king.
    You pawned him there.
    Thank you. I practice my punning all knight to get good at it.
    I just drop mine in en passant.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,529
    PJH said:

    It was interesting walking the dog yesterday afternoon and again this morning. Talk about cut through. Unanimous unprompted opinion (from Brexit-voting Tory Romford) is that the Tories are useless and there should be an election. Boris coming back is a joke. I suggested Starmer would be a better bet and nobody disagreed. These were almost all people who never talk about politics but I know to be generally Tory voting and pro-Brexit.

    Anecdata of course but make of it what you will.

    So Romford could go Labour again, like it did in 1997.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
  • AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
    No Boris then makes it Parliament vs people and says the people should overrule parliament
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,741
    AlistairM said:

    moonshine said:

    Hmm
    image

    Is that Bakhmut comment supposed to be a misplaced attempt at trolling given they’ve still not taken it? Or a genuine question.
    Fairly certain it is trolling. They have been sending all their best troops (Wagner group) against Bakhmut for months and made pretty much no progress.
    There’s a view that Wagner aren’t really trying that hard to take it. Prigozhin is throwing a bunch of the convict recruits into the grinder so it looks like they are doing something (look we’re the only ones on the offensive!), while in reality trying to save their better troops from the main front lines where the standard divisions are being wiped out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,000

    Telegraph now saying boris has 150 supporters. Its a done deal hes the next pm. Back him hard

    Is that in the country or the parliamentary party ?
  • Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,741

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is
    questionable though
    Same order of magnitude anyway

  • Telegraph now saying boris has 150 supporters. Its a done deal hes the next pm. Back him hard

    Where?

    Swinford said less than an hour ago:

    This is just what we can see publicly - Boris Johnson's backers say he's got over 50, Sunak & Mordaunt expect big numbers today
  • novanova Posts: 690

    Hes at 3.2 now on betfair

    27 posts so far and every one suggesting we bet on Boris.

    Did you accidentally lay a huge amount on him? ;)
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    edited October 2022

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    "China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths." - does this apply to HK flu as well?

    As for your second line, you're assuming that the measures taken were effective at limiting deaths.

    And one thing you omit is global population growth since the 1960s.
  • Nigelb said:

    Telegraph now saying boris has 150 supporters. Its a done deal hes the next pm. Back him hard

    Is that in the country or the parliamentary party ?
    Tim Montgomerie says he has 150 mps as support
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,158
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Once again, from Scotland: it’s like living above a meth lab.

    https://twitter.com/lornamhughes/status/1583082019508346881?s=46&t=sLIoGP5rqkjG-0o5cYbF1g

    Nah, meth labs make money.
    A study by the Economist, years back, showed that in the cocaine trade (far more stable) nearly everyone made less than minimum wage. The ratio of big money guys to peons was such that working a MacDonalds was far better - orders of magnitude more chance that they would give you a loan to start your own branch. That plus the whole death/prison thing.
    I wish I'd known that before accepting a new job offer...

    Edit: It does make think of an episode of American Dad, where Stan is infiltrating a rebel/terror group and stirring them up with HR style complaints about lack of holidays, overtime pay, not getting to keep looted valuables and the like. And the best - "You're telling me child soldiers make less money than adult soldiers? That is morally indefensible!"
    IIRC they worked out that the delivered cost of cocaine, if run by a pharmaceutical company at the scale of the illegal trade, was something like $50... a kilo. Essentially the supply chain is a gang of idiots all stealing from each other.

    This is why legalisation of drugs *should* wipe out the illegal providers overnight - they could be undercut to prices they can't offer. And leave room for vast taxation and profits.
    You can't have it available at pocket money prices though. You could profitably sell whisky at a pound a bottle if they didn't put all that duty on it. So it would still have to cost a lot, so an illegal trade could still compete

    Mind you the huge attraction of legal illegal drugs would be purity and knowing you were getting pure 100% whatever, no fent or rat poison in the mix.
    Obviously not drop the price that much. But cheaper (just undercut the illegal trade), legal & higher (and dependable) quality. While leaving a vast amount of tax and profit

    Which is why the illegal booze *making* operations in the UK are a rounding error.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
    I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
  • Andy_JS said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    The least-worst outcome is a technocratic government run by Sunak and Hunt. The Italian solution to political turmoil.
    Which is why it wont happen...redwall voters love Boris
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,327
    The Tories haven't managed a poll share of 30% or above since the end of September. What do we reckon are the chances that they'll sneak one in before the end of October?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273

    Andy_JS said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    The least-worst outcome is a technocratic government run by Sunak and Hunt. The Italian solution to political turmoil.
    Which is why it wont happen...redwall voters love Boris
    They did when he was splashing the cash and droned on about leveling up. There’s no money left now and leveling up has been shown to be a fantasy .
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043
    moonshine said:

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is
    questionable though
    Same order of magnitude anyway

    The impact of Hong Kong flu, and other past pandemics, just shows we should have known we needed to be better prepared for when COVID-19 came along. We knew these things could happen, but we were caught off-guard.
  • StarryStarry Posts: 111
    IanB2 said:

    mickydroy said:

    Recent local government elections do not equate to Labour 55% Tory 23%, I know they are localised, but can someone explain, in my eyes the Tories are not bottoming out, although they should be

    IMHO it's about lack of enthusiasm for Labour. That doesn't mean that voters aren't itching to give the Tory government a good kicking when we finally get the chance - but the reaction to some council by-election is more that they don't give a **** rather than enthusiasm to go out and back the Labour candidate.

    If Johnson comes back, I'd tell pollsters I'll vote Labour myself, and there is a reasonable chance I might actually go through with it come the GE. But I have no real enthusiasm for them - just a desire to see the Tories out of government - and they won't be getting my vote in any other elections that might come along.
    Local elections cannot be taken as national polls. The LDs would be going back to their homes and preparing for government if that were the case. Tiny amount of votes and very local issues. It's chalk and cheese.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    It wasn't. Can't find UK stats but 1/10th the deaths of covid in the US. You can uprate that a bit for pop growth.
  • AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    Would a GE end any investigations?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Fair point.

    I think it’s fairly undeniable that on fiscal matters Rishi Sunak is to the right of Boris Johnson.

    Yet the right of the party are backing the lefty and the left of the party are backing the righty.

    Funny old world.

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1583198101753380864
  • nico679 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    The least-worst outcome is a technocratic government run by Sunak and Hunt. The Italian solution to political turmoil.
    Which is why it wont happen...redwall voters love Boris
    They did when he was splashing the cash and droned on about leveling up. There’s no money left now and leveling up has been shown to be a fantasy .
    No but Boris will now turn to racist dogwhistling and hassling migrants and immigrants to shore up his support in the red wall
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,407

    moonshine said:

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is
    questionable though
    Same order of magnitude anyway

    The impact of Hong Kong flu, and other past pandemics, just shows we should have known we needed to be better prepared for when COVID-19 came along. We knew these things could happen, but we were caught off-guard.
    Just remind me, which Health Secretary cut back on such preparations.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,158
    moonshine said:

    Hmm
    image

    Is that Bakhmut comment supposed to be a misplaced attempt at trolling given they’ve still not taken it? Or a genuine question.
    The Ukrainians have created a meeting engagement there - the Russians are desperate for a victory and are throwing more and more forces in, with little gains.

    Even the talking heads on Russian TV, who are selected for their Ra-Ra attitude to the war, have stopped bigging up Bakhmut.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,000
    felix said:

    AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
    I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
    Boris is not a serious solution; hence the point scoring.

    The 'serious solution' for the Conservatives has been outlined numerous times here in recent days - by both Conservatives and those who wouldn't consider voting for them. It's just that there are serious doubts about the MPs and members voting for it.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    edited October 2022

    moonshine said:

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is
    questionable though
    Same order of magnitude anyway

    The impact of Hong Kong flu, and other past pandemics, just shows we should have known we needed to be better prepared for when COVID-19 came along. We knew these things could happen, but we were caught off-guard.
    We had a pandemic plan, and the first thing we did when a pandemic hit was to panic and bin it.
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316
    AlistairM said:

    As a traditional Tory voter my attitude right now is that I would like Labour to be in power but not by too much of a landslide. The Tory wipeout forecasts are what I am nervous of as there needs to be a credible opposition. I'd rather Labour own the mess of the next few years, give the Tories some time to sort themselves out and then come back.

    If you were to ask me who I would vote for right now I would be tempted to say Labour. If the Tories can put in someone competent (either Rishi or Penny) then I would vote for them knowing that they will lose the election but hopefully limiting their losses.

    The problem with Boris is that he has a core of ultra-supporters who will forgive anything he does. They are very vocal but a small part of the electorate. Boris will precipitate the wipeout that I am nervous about that is not good for the country. Imagine Labour with the Tories having been almost wiped out and the large number of extreme left-wingers from the Corbyn-era in their ranks?

    As i have pointed out before, the chance of a tory wipeout are very slim, Starmer has got a mountain to climb to get a majority of 1, thats before boundary changes, unlikely that they will make much progress in Scotland, the chances of labour having a 100+seat majority I think are very remote, indeed I am still half tempted with the 3/1 tories most seats, 8 months ago that would have looked like the bet of the decade
  • ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Chess champions suing each other sums up the age we live in.

    I don't think this case is black and white. I think they're both pawns of big business.
    Rookie error.
    Nice try, but 'rookie' isn't anything to do with chess, it's a corruption of 'recruit.' You need to improve your thin king.
    Careful, you may end up bashing the bishop...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    felix said:

    AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
    I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
    I just want a stable-ish government who can take us through to the spring and a GE after that. I’ve got no desire to see any further implosions or polling catastrophes or resignations. The Tories have lost the next election and I won’t be voting for them. I now just want someone who can keep their hand on the tiller for longer than a couple of months and just see us through to the delivery of a Labour administration.
  • AlistairM said:

    Fair point.

    I think it’s fairly undeniable that on fiscal matters Rishi Sunak is to the right of Boris Johnson.

    Yet the right of the party are backing the lefty and the left of the party are backing the righty.

    Funny old world.

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1583198101753380864

    The fantasist/optimist/sunny uplands vs realist/pragmatist/managed decline is the real split in the Tory party, not left vs right or remain vs leave.

    And it cannot be reconciled as we will never reach the sunny uplands, but it sounds a lot more fun than managed decline.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,529

    Andy_JS said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    The least-worst outcome is a technocratic government run by Sunak and Hunt. The Italian solution to political turmoil.
    Which is why it wont happen...redwall voters love Boris
    I think it probably will happen.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    felix said:

    AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
    I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
    The serious solution is a GE. If GBOL wants to continue to pander to the 25 quidders, and double figures of MPs want to nominate phatboi for a Second Coming, endless point scoring is the way to go.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,757
    PJH said:

    It was interesting walking the dog yesterday afternoon and again this morning. Talk about cut through. Unanimous unprompted opinion (from Brexit-voting Tory Romford) is that the Tories are useless and there should be an election. Boris coming back is a joke. I suggested Starmer would be a better bet and nobody disagreed. These were almost all people who never talk about politics but I know to be generally Tory voting and pro-Brexit.

    Anecdata of course but make of it what you will.

    Seems entirely reasonable. On one level all of the Tory psychodrama is rather funny but on a fundamental level it is an utter disgrace and if they can't provide the country with the leadership it needs - and they obviously can't - then they are duty-bound to step aside and let the voters elect a government that can. Right now they are doing profound damage to the country and its image.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Just waiting for Mike to lead on this historic low poll for the tories. 14%! Incredible.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,327

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    It's hard to do such a comparison. The population now is higher, so you'd expect more deaths in absolute numbers with a disease that was no more dangerous. However, healthcare is better, so you'd expect fewer deaths, all other things being equal.

    I think the biggest difference is that there are more potential treatments available for very sick patients than there were, and so when the health system gets overwhelmed it has a large impact on the death rate because not everyone can be treated.

    Back in the 60s, because there was less that could be done, it meant it was easier to provide what treatment was possible.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
    It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,772
    AlistairM said:

    Fair point.

    I think it’s fairly undeniable that on fiscal matters Rishi Sunak is to the right of Boris Johnson.

    Yet the right of the party are backing the lefty and the left of the party are backing the righty.

    Funny old world.

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1583198101753380864

    This Sunak which pushed up taxes?

    It's more about realism vs fantasy politics.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,158
    moonshine said:

    AlistairM said:

    moonshine said:

    Hmm
    image

    Is that Bakhmut comment supposed to be a misplaced attempt at trolling given they’ve still not taken it? Or a genuine question.
    Fairly certain it is trolling. They have been sending all their best troops (Wagner group) against Bakhmut for months and made pretty much no progress.
    There’s a view that Wagner aren’t really trying that hard to take it. Prigozhin is throwing a bunch of the convict recruits into the grinder so it looks like they are doing something (look we’re the only ones on the offensive!), while in reality trying to save their better troops from the main front lines where the standard divisions are being wiped out.
    Yes - there does seem to be a element of that. Note that the Chechen asehole, seems to be doing similar.

    People are preserving their private armies.

    On the upside, when the convicts are "killed", if they have paid upfront to the top guys at Wagner group, what is really happening, is that they get a new identity. Which is the one belonging to a non-convict dead guy....
  • PJHPJH Posts: 641
    Andy_JS said:

    PJH said:

    It was interesting walking the dog yesterday afternoon and again this morning. Talk about cut through. Unanimous unprompted opinion (from Brexit-voting Tory Romford) is that the Tories are useless and there should be an election. Boris coming back is a joke. I suggested Starmer would be a better bet and nobody disagreed. These were almost all people who never talk about politics but I know to be generally Tory voting and pro-Brexit.

    Anecdata of course but make of it what you will.

    So Romford could go Labour again, like it did in 1997.
    That was a total surprise, there was no campaigning because both sides thought it was safe Tory. Boundary changes made it slightly more Tory in 2010, ward boundaries have changed again for the new boundaries but I think any change is marginal. The last council elections were still overwhelmingly Conservative, just one Labour councillor. So it would be quite a stretch, assuming the Tories aren't really polling 14% nationally.
  • nova said:

    Hes at 3.2 now on betfair

    27 posts so far and every one suggesting we bet on Boris.

    Did you accidentally lay a huge amount on him? ;)
    They are trying to make their money back after losing on Marco Rubio, David Miliband, and Brian Rose.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,158

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
    It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
    In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    felix said:

    AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
    I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun
    In one sense it is but in lots of ways it really isn't.

    As a spectacle, yes.

    As a wrecking of this country, it's really not. Real lives have been, and are, damaged by this. A lot of it inflicted by the Party rather than external events.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,757

    AlistairM said:

    Fair point.

    I think it’s fairly undeniable that on fiscal matters Rishi Sunak is to the right of Boris Johnson.

    Yet the right of the party are backing the lefty and the left of the party are backing the righty.

    Funny old world.

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1583198101753380864

    The fantasist/optimist/sunny uplands vs realist/pragmatist/managed decline is the real split in the Tory party, not left vs right or remain vs leave.

    And it cannot be reconciled as we will never reach the sunny uplands, but it sounds a lot more fun than managed decline.
    Brexit opened the door to populism and it is proving very difficult to close it. Populism is a bigger threat to the country's future than Brexit is, but I'm not sure you can get rid of one without the other.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    “BorisOrBust”?

    Seriously?!

    Mogg misspelt AND.

  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,987

    Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.

    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1583340271651024896

    The King Over The Water?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,529
    edited October 2022
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,327
    felix said:

    AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
    I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
    The only serious solution is a general election. The prospect of the Tories uniting behind a dull serious leader for a couple of years of serious difficult government is very low.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,043

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
    It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
    In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
    Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,586

    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.

    I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.

    Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.

    Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.

    But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.

    Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
    It will be Rishi

    Rishi will select a relatively sensible Cabinet, have relatively sensible policies and in 2024 have a relatively sensible GE campaign with the private target of getting around 200-225 seats as a base to rebuild on after the GE.

    DYOR 👍
    He won't last that long. The party will be trying to kill him at every turn.
    I think you are right (even if he is not actually ousted prior to throwing up his hands and calling a GE).

    I don't think people realise that the ERG-types don't give a fig for the Tory Party, the Country etc. They wrap themselves in Tory iconography but their actions speak louder than their words.
    They are nutters who the Tories have lived in fear of for decades. They should have been cleaned out when the Tories were in opposition, but they were not and we are now paying the price.

    TBF to the Tories, Labour's nutters set Corbyn up and then allowed the entryist members to vote and back him so they were not much wiser, but at least they seem to be cleaning out the fools and extremists whereas many Tories seem to admire theirs.
    Every party has "extremists" in a FPTP "big tent" system. And Labour *very nearly* let their extremists take over.

    The mistake of the majority was not realising that the landscape had shifted significantly with Milliband's rules change, and allowing "a Corbyn" onto the ballot was no longer a virtue-signalling sop to the left. They have subsequently addressed that issue in response to their existential crisis.

    The Tories are nowhere near that stage yet; and it may be too late for them.
  • Heathener said:

    Just waiting for Mike to lead on this historic low poll for the tories. 14%! Incredible.

    Where is that
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,780
    felix said:

    AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
    I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
    Very good post. I have already posted I would like to see Sunak or Hunt to bring some stability, but I can't deny there is a little bit of me that would love to see Boris back for the fun of it. I am really not proud of that.
  • Telegraph now saying boris has 150 supporters. Its a done deal hes the next pm. Back him hard

    Where?

    Swinford said less than an hour ago:

    This is just what we can see publicly - Boris Johnson's backers say he's got over 50, Sunak & Mordaunt expect big numbers today
    Mordaunts out of it now
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    felix said:

    AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
    I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
    This is not an election I can influence or vote in. I have no say.

    All that is left is either to watch and laugh or watch and cry.

    I choose laughter...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    AlistairM said:

    Fair point.

    I think it’s fairly undeniable that on fiscal matters Rishi Sunak is to the right of Boris Johnson.

    Yet the right of the party are backing the lefty and the left of the party are backing the righty.

    Funny old world.

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1583198101753380864

    The fantasist/optimist/sunny uplands vs realist/pragmatist/managed decline is the real split in the Tory party, not left vs right or remain vs leave.

    And it cannot be reconciled as we will never reach the sunny uplands, but it sounds a lot more fun than managed decline.
    Brexit opened the door to populism and it is proving very difficult to close it. Populism is a bigger threat to the country's future than Brexit is, but I'm not sure you can get rid of one without the other.
    The Economist's editorial that Britain is now Italy has a point. After Berlusconi, voters have tried one populist after another, and after each one fails they cast about for someone even more reckless. Meanwhile sensible Italians have either given up on politics altogether, or simply look on in despair, unable to understand or influence the voting habits of the majority.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,093

    Hes at 3.2 now on betfair

    Topped up my lay. Thanks for the steer.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Driver said:

    moonshine said:

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is
    questionable though
    Same order of magnitude anyway

    The impact of Hong Kong flu, and other past pandemics, just shows we should have known we needed to be better prepared for when COVID-19 came along. We knew these things could happen, but we were caught off-guard.
    We had a pandemic plan, and the first thing we did when a pandemic hit was to panic and bin it.
    It would have been better if they'd done that but they didn't. The British spent the first couple of weeks faithfully trying to follow the plan, undeterred by the fact that it was for a completely different disease.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 641
    edited October 2022
    Heathener said:

    felix said:

    AlistairM said:

    This is a serious problem. If the Tories do go for Boris then there may have to be another leadership election soon.

    Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.

    We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.

    One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...

    https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989

    That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
    I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun
    In one sense it is but in lots of ways it really isn't.

    As a spectacle, yes.

    As a wrecking of this country, it's really not. Real lives have been, and are, damaged by this. A lot of it inflicted by the Party rather than external events.
    Totally agree. I'm splitting my sides laughing, but...

    Whoever has to pick up the pieces (presumably Starmer and Labour) is stuffed. There is no chance of making the investments the country needs. There is massive demand for improvements in services across the board and all the money has been spent. The longer this farce goes on, the worse it gets. A new Labour government will be just as unpopular within a year.
  • Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
    It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
    In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
    Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
    Dont think Boris ever realky wanted to lockdown to be honest
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Heathener said:
    We won't be hearing about this from @TSE . Not a squeak.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Amazing




  • kinabalu said:

    Hes at 3.2 now on betfair

    Topped up my lay. Thanks for the steer.
    There will be tears in Hampstead when Boris becomes PM again
  • kinabalu said:

    Hes at 3.2 now on betfair

    Topped up my lay. Thanks for the steer.
    Flip flops by the end of lunchtime.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,000
    Odd, considering he got rid of most of them when he was leader.
    And 'left wing liberal' is peculiar description of Truss.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1583384220667637762
    A Boris Johnson ally has told the Mail: "He thinks there has been a takeover by the Left-wing, liberal faction of the Tory party."

    For the same paper, Mick Hume has written a piece titled 'Only Johnson can stop Tories turning into a Blairite blancmange'.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,407

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
    It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
    In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
    Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
    Dont think Boris ever realky wanted to lockdown to be honest
    He didn't act as though he did!
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.

    There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
    You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
    Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
    Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.

    COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
    The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
    It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
    In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
    Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
    Dont think Boris ever realky wanted to lockdown to be honest
    If he didn't, then he would have lifted lockdown as soon as it became apparent it was a major over-reaction.
This discussion has been closed.