party. Anyone that thinks otherwise will have an agenda or has their head in the sand. The party is FINISHED & neither Sunak or Mordaunt would change those polls.
9:34 PM · Oct 20, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
You seem slightly obsessed with ramping Boris. You are new here, I note…
An obvious troll I would have thought and a pretty poor one at that.
The 1922 are utter morons for giving members any say.
This is the third time I’ve posted on this.
And if you keep posting it, I'll have to keep reminding you that they had no choice.
Well, you’re simply wrong about it.
No he is not. They are bound by the rules of the party - they don't make them. They can tinker at a low level with timetables and nomination requirements but that is all.
He is wrong, because he assumes perhaps that the question in hand was the party leadership.
Liz should have been told to resign as Prime Minister, but not as Party Leader.
Not remotely a serious suggestion.
Right, so you’ve conceded that you’re wrong, you just don’t think the alternative is “serious”.
Something that is so unserious that it's imaginary doesn't counteract my point of the reality of the situation.
She can't resign as PM until there's a successor - this is why she hasn't resigned as PM today). Without a party leadership election, how is the successor chosen, especially given that the assumption is that the leader of the party which holds a majority has the confidence of the House?
It's beyond preposterous.
So preposterous it was used to replace Chamberlain.
The mechanism would be quite straightforward. Truss would announce her intention to resign the premiership and hand over to another Tory chosen by the MPs either by coronation or through voting.
Said Tory becomes PM.
Liz then resigns the leadership and the party can do what they want, it has no impact on the premiership.
Until the new party leader decides they want to be PM…
Whoever gets 100 Tory MPs on Monday nominating them obviously goes forward to a leadership election. If only 1 candidate meets that threshold they obviously become Tory leader and PM.
If not then rounds should be held amongst the candidates until 1 candidate gets over 50% of the parliamentary party supporting them, even if that requires a final round amongst the top 2.
The membership should be given 2 votes then. The first should be to either confirm or reject the candidate chosen by MPs.
If the membership confirm that choice that candidate automatically becomes PM as well as party leader.
If the membership reject that choice then consideration is given to their second vote, a head to head between the top 2 candidates amongst MPs. Whoever wins that ballot amongst members then becomes Tory leader and leads the Tories into a snap general election, Truss remaining PM but not party leader while that general election takes place
The membership have about as much legitimacy in choosing a Prime Minister as the National Union of Miners in the 1970s/1980s. Each is/was a pressure group for its own interests. Nothinbg more. Which was at least legitimate for a trade union, but is outrageous for a political party that pretends to have the interests of the UK at heart.
You're morally worse than Arthur Scargill.
Unless the membership back the Tory MPs choice they can't select the PM without a general election first under my plan
But they shouldn't nbe selecting the PM at all. That is solely for MPs under the constitution which you pretend to defend.
It IS solely for MPs if you had bothered to read my plan before going on a rant.
I made clear if members did not confirm the choice over 50% of the governing parties MPs backed then there would be a snap general election and they would only be electing the party leader at that election, it would be for voters as a whole to decide if they then became PM or not
You're involving party members, which is sufficient to abolish your claim.
Edit: possible source of confusion - I am talking about the UK constitution. Not the party constitution or whatever jumped up set of third rate golf club rules you are trying to put in its place, like the subversive and seditious person that you are.
Only to confirm the choice of Tory MPs and only if they confirm that choice does that candidate become PM. So the country's constitution stands ie the PM has to have the support of most MPs from the party with a majority in Parliament.
If they reject that choice then as I said they get a second vote only to choose our party leader to lead us into a snap general election, the voters alone would then decide if that candidate became PM or not.
Forget it. The moment you let the partty members into the decision, that's it, you're subverting UK democracy and ther constitution.
It’s reasonable to let them have a role.
Say 20 MPs required to nominate.
Members then vote for a shortlist of 5 (using AV)
MPs then chose 1 winner from that shortlist.
Why is it reasonable? It’s not. Same applies to Labour as well. It’s a subversion of the parliamentary system.
It’s reasonable because they are members of the party voting for their leader.
It’s not subverting the system if the final decision is up to MPs.
Thorpe in Norwich is a Labour gain, Tory vote halved. The ward is part of Norwich North, Chloe Smiths seat
It is actually in Norwich South - though likely boundary changes will move it to Norwich North.
Correction : The ward is in Thorpe St Andrew and is part of Broadland District Council. It does fall within Norwich North whereas Thorpe Hamlet is currently within Norwich South.
The 1922 are utter morons for giving members any say.
This is the third time I’ve posted on this.
And if you keep posting it, I'll have to keep reminding you that they had no choice.
Well, you’re simply wrong about it.
No he is not. They are bound by the rules of the party - they don't make them. They can tinker at a low level with timetables and nomination requirements but that is all.
He is wrong, because he assumes perhaps that the question in hand was the party leadership.
Liz should have been told to resign as Prime Minister, but not as Party Leader.
Not remotely a serious suggestion.
Right, so you’ve conceded that you’re wrong, you just don’t think the alternative is “serious”.
Something that is so unserious that it's imaginary doesn't counteract my point of the reality of the situation.
She can't resign as PM until there's a successor - this is why she hasn't resigned as PM today). Without a party leadership election, how is the successor chosen, especially given that the assumption is that the leader of the party which holds a majority has the confidence of the House?
It's beyond preposterous.
So preposterous it was used to replace Chamberlain.
The mechanism would be quite straightforward. Truss would announce her intention to resign the premiership and hand over to another Tory chosen by the MPs either by coronation or through voting.
Said Tory becomes PM.
Liz then resigns the leadership and the party can do what they want, it has no impact on the premiership.
Until the new party leader decides they want to be PM…
I think Gardenwalker is right about this. It is the House of Commons who decides who the Prime Minister is, and while one party has a majority, MPs of that party should be able to choose the PM. It would be perfectly sensible (if required by the Conservative Party rules) to let the members elect a party leader separately. Most likely it would be a coronation - if you need 100 nominations to even get on the ballot, who would get 100 nominations against the brand new sitting PM? If anyone could, it would show that the party really is irredeemably divided and it is indeed time for a general election.
The 1922 are utter morons for giving members any say.
This is the third time I’ve posted on this.
And if you keep posting it, I'll have to keep reminding you that they had no choice.
Well, you’re simply wrong about it.
Surely the party constitution has been quoted enough times? The 1922 Committee has to present a choice of candidates to the membership. The 1922 Committee also doesn't have the power to change the party constitution, and neither does the party Board. Trying to evade those rules would have precipitated a legal challenge.
Only has to present a choice IF there is more than one. Which in this case means getting 100 MP nominators for more than one hopeful. If only one make threshold, they win automatically.
Which is likely. But NOT a given.
Conservative Party Constitution - SCHEDULE 2: RULES FOR THE ELECTION OF THE LEADER
3. Upon the initiation of an election for the Leader, it shall be the duty of the 1922 Committee to present to the Party, as soon as reasonably practicable, a choice of candidates for election as Leader. The rules for deciding the procedure by which the 1922 Committee selects candidates for submission for election shall be determined by the Executive Committee of the 1922 Committee after consultation of the Board.
4 If there is only one candidate at the time laid down for the close of nominations, that candidate shall be declared Leader of the Party.
Still think a legal challenge would be pointless anyway and not the threat driver thinks it is. The king appoints someone as PM who can command confidence of the house, if they have that confidence then a procedural irregularity for the rules of a private club election don't matter - say it was stated person X was not elected according to party rules, it wouldn't matter if parliament said screw it, we still back this person.
Lie or shocking mistake by Baldy Ben in the HoC when reporting on the RIVET JOINT/Flanker incident over the Black Sea.
He described the RC-135 as a "civilian ISTAR" aircraft. It's not, it's on the UK military register (ZZ serials) and is operated by an active duty RAF crew. Bullshitter or incompetent or poorly briefed.
I'm finding it weird that neither Sunak or Johnson have made any sort of public appearance. Too soon maybe?
Like trying to bet on ghosts
In Sunaks case I expect he's in deep conversations with allies and rivals trying to agree a core cabinet and policy approach which will get overwhelming backing.
In Boris's case I expect he's wanting to play this as the rebellious nobles asking the king to return, for him to appear reluctant but willing to accept this honour.
I wonder if deputy PM is becoming more of a thing again, as weak leaders need to clearly signal their number 2, or a title to give to a rival to show an alliance.
What was weird was when Raab went from first Secretary of state, in effect deputy, to deputy PM.
I'm finding it weird that neither Sunak or Johnson have made any sort of public appearance. Too soon maybe?
Like trying to bet on ghosts
In Sunaks case I expect he's in deep conversations with allies and rivals trying to agree a core cabinet and policy approach which will get overwhelming backing.
In Boris's case I expect he's wanting to play this as the rebellious nobles asking the king to return, for him to appear reluctant but willing to accept this honour.
Like Cincinnatus, who was recalled from a beach on Capri to save his country.
Truss's failure might lead the Tories to embrace realignment more wholeheartedly:
@danny__kruger Spot on from @MelanieLatest (citing @GoodwinMJ research): 'The party now has to make a choice. Does it want to restore the UK as an independent national project that upholds its historic culture, traditions and institutions? Or does it want to finally break that culture apart on the rocks of social or economic individualism and anti-west ideological dogma?'
This is plain speaking and the language will alarm moderate Conservatives. But this is a critical moment when the nettle must be grasped:
Whatever Govt emerges from this crisis needs to rebuild the 2019 coalition of voters. This means Brexit, borders, manufacturing, family, place, defence, tradition, solidarity... not just tax cuts and technocracy.
We can do that in a way which brings the moderates along : people with an interest in localism, public service reform, help for enterprise, environmental action - all this is compatible with the 2019 alignment. Conservatives unite!
Like Cincinnatus, who was recalled from a beach on Capri to save his country.
If you are curious about Boris Johnson's reference to Cincinnatus in his goodbye speech - he was a 5th century BC Roman politician who saved the state from an invasion, then - job done - returned to his farm ('to his plough'). He was also an enemy of the people. https://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/1567039650027413506
I wonder if deputy PM is becoming more of a thing again, as weak leaders need to clearly signal their number 2, or a title to give to a rival to show an alliance.
What was weird was when Raab went from first Secretary of state, in effect deputy, to deputy PM.
Is it compensation for the lack of teams? Stable government comes from closely working pairs, Blair/Brown, Cameron/Osborne. None of the current contenders seem to have someone who is focused on watching their back and making sure that the writ of the leader gets implemented. The result is weaker PMs and weaker government.
I wonder if deputy PM is becoming more of a thing again, as weak leaders need to clearly signal their number 2, or a title to give to a rival to show an alliance.
What was weird was when Raab went from first Secretary of state, in effect deputy, to deputy PM.
Is it compensation for the lack of teams? Stable government comes from closely working pairs, Blair/Brown, Cameron/Osborne. None of the current contenders seem to have someone who is focused on watching their back and making sure that the writ of the leader gets implemented. The result is weaker PMs and weaker government.
Gove is there to watch the leaders backs. Otherwise how would he know where to place the knives?
I like the point about how long it took to limit a president to 2 terms. That was by far the norm of course (only one exception?), but it feels so central to the US model itd be easy to assume it was always the case.
Public sector net borrowing was £20.0 billion in September. That's £2.2 billion more than in the same month last year and the second highest September borrowing since monthly records began.
And that's something the chancellor and OBR will be looking at very closely over the coming few days
Like Cincinnatus, who was recalled from a beach on Capri to save his country.
If you are curious about Boris Johnson's reference to Cincinnatus in his goodbye speech - he was a 5th century BC Roman politician who saved the state from an invasion, then - job done - returned to his farm ('to his plough'). He was also an enemy of the people. https://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/1567039650027413506
Ah sorry yes - it was a farm, not a beach.
But I knew there was some similarity to Boris, which you've highlighted.
Although I had thought Johnson unembarrasable but with one eye on his record he won’t want the humiliation of either not getting enough nominees or getting eliminated first.
Although I had thought Johnson unembarrasable but with one eye on his record he won’t want the humiliation of either not getting enough nominees or getting eliminated first.
Although I had thought Johnson unembarrasable but with one eye on his record he won’t want the humiliation of either not getting enough nominees or getting eliminated first.
Hopefully. He's made his point that a sizable chunk of the MPs still want him, so any leader had better be nice to him.
Although I had thought Johnson unembarrasable but with one eye on his record he won’t want the humiliation of either not getting enough nominees or getting eliminated first.
If he runs, what will he gain? He can earn more outside government. Outside government, he is less constrained in his actions. In government, he will have to work. He knows he has many enemies, without and within the party.
By not running, he could make himself kingmaker.
But I reckon it'll depend on whether he thinks he can turn around the party's fortunes. If he thinks he will lose against Starmer, then he will not run.
For Johnson, like to many MPs of all parties, it is not about the good of the country. It is about HIM.
Although I had thought Johnson unembarrasable but with one eye on his record he won’t want the humiliation of either not getting enough nominees or getting eliminated first.
Hopefully. He's made his point that a sizable chunk of the MPs still want him, so any leader had better be nice to him.
Hopefully this is the case. Better to be the King Across the Water, earning £lots on the lecture circuit, boosted by "they wanted me back!" than to actually face the horror of winning and coming back.
Boris doesn't do detail. Doesn't do economics. Doesn't do propriety. He does boosterism - and in the Truss mess there will be no boosting. He wouldn't have fun being the person responsible for swinging cuts and under endless investigation about his dodgy trip to see Lebedev and his lies to parliament etc etc
LATEST Boris Johnson is being advised by some close friends not to stand. One friend tells me: "It is too early. In Autumn next year the party will be on its knees.
Liz Truss ignored stark warnings from economists sympathetic to her growth strategy that the mini-budget that ultimately led to her downfall risked triggering a financial markets meltdown, the Guardian has learned….
But days before the start of her premiership, she was told by the economists Gerard Lyons and Julian Jessop that the markets were highly nervous and that she could face a crash if her policy changes were not handled with care.
Stunning and devastating opening from Newsnight tonight. Harsh, yes. Media students (and current broadcast journalists!) take note: your edit is nothing without the right choice of music. And oh boy this is quite the choice. https://twitter.com/timoncheese/status/1583216768986013701/video/1
Liz Truss ignored stark warnings from economists sympathetic to her growth strategy that the mini-budget that ultimately led to her downfall risked triggering a financial markets meltdown, the Guardian has learned….
But days before the start of her premiership, she was told by the economists Gerard Lyons and Julian Jessop that the markets were highly nervous and that she could face a crash if her policy changes were not handled with care.
Good caring about the party and country and not seeking personal revenge there
The Nasty Piece of Workness was always there. It's just been hidden under superficial boosterish bonhomie. Everyone starts liking Boris, then he betrays them, then they hate him. Every single time.
Which (I hope) is why the 100 nomination rule is there. There are sufficient Conservative MPs who have been personally let down by BoJo that it may be out of reach. Looking at his list of backers, it's very third rate.
Liz Truss ignored stark warnings from economists sympathetic to her growth strategy that the mini-budget that ultimately led to her downfall risked triggering a financial markets meltdown, the Guardian has learned….
But days before the start of her premiership, she was told by the economists Gerard Lyons and Julian Jessop that the markets were highly nervous and that she could face a crash if her policy changes were not handled with care.
Seems to be missing the huge Franco-German row brewing. I think europhiles in the U.K. like to pretend that the rest of Europe is obsessed with us. They are not.
I've got a bad feeling Johnson is going to be selected again.
Boris will only stand if he is confident that he can win. That was the decision he took in 2016, for example. I do not see how he could be confident of winning at the moment with the standards committee hanging over him with a ton of manure and the blatant lying too raw and too recent. Therefore he will not stand.
LATEST Boris Johnson is being advised by some close friends not to stand. One friend tells me: "It is too early. In Autumn next year the party will be on its knees.
The party is flat on its back, for heaven's sake!
Exactly. It's flat on its back now and, with luck and a fair wind from exogenous factors (Ukraine, gas prices, events) might be on its knees by next year with the worst past us and an upward economic and political trend.
If we all deem the party and country is at its lowest now you know what the only way is, don't you.
Seems to be missing the huge Franco-German row brewing. I think europhiles in the U.K. like to pretend that the rest of Europe is obsessed with us. They are not.
The presenters on the main Swedish tv news this morning were laughing their heads off. Or as near as Swedes ever get to laughing their heads off. It is very, very funny.
In September 2022 the public sector borrowed £20.0 bn, the second highest September borrowing on record, being £2.2 bn more than that in September 2021 but £8.2 bn less than in September 2020. This short thread provides the story behind the headlines.
If I was a Labour supporter I would be encouraging Boris to stand. He will destroy any credibility left in the Conservative party...
This is their challenge. Whilst on paper we elect the named candidate on the ballot paper and not the party or a PM, most voters don't accept this - they vote for a PM.
Boris Johnson is the only potential candidate with a political mandate. He is the reason why the Tories won the 2019 election as they did. But he is also a PM who was hounded out of office a few months ago following scandal after scandal with strongly negative approval ratings.
So his mandate of 2019 is tenuous at best here in 2022. But tenuous is at least something that exists. Unlike the "mandate" that Sunak or Mordaunt or Braverman could clam. No candidate is going to unify the party, so the paper majority doesn't exist in practice.
I still think a spring 2023 election is on. Whichever PM we get next - the disgraced last-but-one one or yet another retread replacement - they are going to seriously struggle to maintain parliamentary discipline and actually govern. With massive poll disapproval and an overwhelming sense of fatigue against them.
I found Guidos spreadsheet very helpful in the previous contest. Sad to see it just descend into blatant Boris ramping “1922 board”? “CCHQ Vice Chair” (x2)?
BoZo spent more time on holiday than Truss spent as PM
Tbf, she would have done less damage if she had been on holiday for the last six weeks.
The only comfort I take from this whole sorry saga and the likely Johnson redux is this: for a man who loves a Carribbean holiday he missed his moment in the sun, and he was out of office long enough for the history books to write him out of being QE2's last PM and KC3's first PM.
Scant consolation indeed, but consolation nonetheless.
If I was a Labour supporter I would be encouraging Boris to stand. He will destroy any credibility left in the Conservative party...
This is their challenge. Whilst on paper we elect the named candidate on the ballot paper and not the party or a PM, most voters don't accept this - they vote for a PM.
Boris Johnson is the only potential candidate with a political mandate. He is the reason why the Tories won the 2019 election as they did. But he is also a PM who was hounded out of office a few months ago following scandal after scandal with strongly negative approval ratings.
So his mandate of 2019 is tenuous at best here in 2022. But tenuous is at least something that exists. Unlike the "mandate" that Sunak or Mordaunt or Braverman could clam. No candidate is going to unify the party, so the paper majority doesn't exist in practice.
I still think a spring 2023 election is on. Whichever PM we get next - the disgraced last-but-one one or yet another retread replacement - they are going to seriously struggle to maintain parliamentary discipline and actually govern. With massive poll disapproval and an overwhelming sense of fatigue against them.
The only way I see an early GE is if Johnson returns . The Tory party could implode if that happens.
If I was a Labour supporter I would be encouraging Boris to stand. He will destroy any credibility left in the Conservative party...
This is their challenge. Whilst on paper we elect the named candidate on the ballot paper and not the party or a PM, most voters don't accept this - they vote for a PM.
Boris Johnson is the only potential candidate with a political mandate. He is the reason why the Tories won the 2019 election as they did. But he is also a PM who was hounded out of office a few months ago following scandal after scandal with strongly negative approval ratings.
So his mandate of 2019 is tenuous at best here in 2022. But tenuous is at least something that exists. Unlike the "mandate" that Sunak or Mordaunt or Braverman could clam. No candidate is going to unify the party, so the paper majority doesn't exist in practice.
I still think a spring 2023 election is on. Whichever PM we get next - the disgraced last-but-one one or yet another retread replacement - they are going to seriously struggle to maintain parliamentary discipline and actually govern. With massive poll disapproval and an overwhelming sense of fatigue against them.
The only way I see an early GE is if Johnson returns . The Tory party could implode if that happens.
Seems to be missing the huge Franco-German row brewing. I think europhiles in the U.K. like to pretend that the rest of Europe is obsessed with us. They are not.
The presenters on the main Swedish tv news this morning were laughing their heads off. Or as near as Swedes ever get to laughing their heads off. It is very, very funny.
Sounds plausible. There's a space where Europe isn't that into us (which is why we didn't get the leaving gift we wanted) but the UK is a reliable source of stories of craziness. Sort of like America's Dumbest Criminals, only with politicians.
Good caring about the party and country and not seeking personal revenge there
The Nasty Piece of Workness was always there. It's just been hidden under superficial boosterish bonhomie. Everyone starts liking Boris, then he betrays them, then they hate him. Every single time.
Which (I hope) is why the 100 nomination rule is there. There are sufficient Conservative MPs who have been personally let down by BoJo that it may be out of reach. Looking at his list of backers, it's very third rate.
The winner of the contest will inevitably have to do well with the very third rate. How they do with the first rate is a rounding error in comparison.
If I was a Labour supporter I would be encouraging Boris to stand. He will destroy any credibility left in the Conservative party...
This is their challenge. Whilst on paper we elect the named candidate on the ballot paper and not the party or a PM, most voters don't accept this - they vote for a PM.
Boris Johnson is the only potential candidate with a political mandate. He is the reason why the Tories won the 2019 election as they did. But he is also a PM who was hounded out of office a few months ago following scandal after scandal with strongly negative approval ratings.
So his mandate of 2019 is tenuous at best here in 2022. But tenuous is at least something that exists. Unlike the "mandate" that Sunak or Mordaunt or Braverman could clam. No candidate is going to unify the party, so the paper majority doesn't exist in practice.
I still think a spring 2023 election is on. Whichever PM we get next - the disgraced last-but-one one or yet another retread replacement - they are going to seriously struggle to maintain parliamentary discipline and actually govern. With massive poll disapproval and an overwhelming sense of fatigue against them.
The only way I see an early GE is if Johnson returns . The Tory party could implode if that happens.
In all likelihood that is the way it is going to go anyway.
The only one I can see actually managing to ride it out a little longer is Penny, and then probably only so far as a year, tops. Because she’s not closely related to a particular faction she’s in a better place to bring more people together. But the party is on the whole ungovernable, so she’ll run into some issue that will ignite a split.
If Boris wins then I think the majority will evaporate and I think we’ll be looking at an immediate GE.
If Rishi wins the amount of undermining from the usual suspects will make things ungovernable and I suspect he’ll have probably until January at the latest, before he’ll need to go to the country.
(1) Guido’s ramping. Boris doesn't actually have more declared support than Sunak. I view this as a sign of weakness - not strength; if he had the real names he'd declare them. He's trying to build an inevitability narrative that doesn't yet exist. (2) Boris hasn't declared he will stand yet. He is taking "soundings" and that doesn't just mean MPs who'd support him, it means taking views of those he knows into account. (3) I expect many MPs to mobilise this morning to declare they'd refuse to serve under him or would resign the whip, which may spook the markets.
Seems to be missing the huge Franco-German row brewing. I think europhiles in the U.K. like to pretend that the rest of Europe is obsessed with us. They are not.
The presenters on the main Swedish tv news this morning were laughing their heads off. Or as near as Swedes ever get to laughing their heads off. It is very, very funny.
Of course it is. Couldn't begrudge other nations a good laugh at a time like this, it's pretty crazy after all. Other peoples political crises are usually funny.
But governments are serious things even if spokespeople are not. All it needs is a new leader to get a grip and all will return to normal, so no one should feel that embarrassed by this period causing amusement.
(1) Guido’s ramping. Boris doesn't actually have more declared support than Sunak. I view this as a sign of weakness - not strength; if he had the real names he'd declare them. He's trying to build an inevitability narrative that doesn't yet exist. (2) Boris hasn't declared he will stand yet. He is taking "soundings" and that doesn't just mean MPs who'd support him, it means taking views of those he knows into account. (3) I expect many MPs to mobilise this morning to declare they'd refuse to serve under him or would resign the whip, which may spook the markets.
DYOR.
I hope you’re right. On the other hand, the long term political trend where the worst possible outcome is realised, would be continued by Boris coming back.
(1) Guido’s ramping. Boris doesn't actually have more declared support than Sunak. I view this as a sign of weakness - not strength; if he had the real names he'd declare them. He's trying to build an inevitability narrative that doesn't yet exist. (2) Boris hasn't declared he will stand yet. He is taking "soundings" and that doesn't just mean MPs who'd support him, it means taking views of those he knows into account. (3) I expect many MPs to mobilise this morning to declare they'd refuse to serve under him or would resign the whip, which may spook the markets.
DYOR.
It will be interesting to see if your number 3 is correct.
I actually wondered if we’d get a big spread in the Sundays from (say) 40 or so MPs confirming they’d resign the whip if BoJo returned, thereby essentially telling other MPs/members they would be voting for a new GE.
The slight issue with this tactic is it risks enraging the BoJo backers so much that they actually make a counter-threat. Thereby essentially making an immediate GE inevitable (and probably leading to a Boris win because he’s (sadly) the best chance the Tories have at the moment of salvaging something).
I am starting to think a December GE is possible again. Does the parliamentary timetable allow for it or would it actually be held in January?
While Sunak leads, marginally, among all voters, @BorisJohnson holds commanding 19-pt lead among 2019 voters party needs to win back if it is to have hope of avoiding oblivion. No easy answers for a party that is about to make one of the most important decisions in its history https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583349321399160832
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Liz Truss ignored stark warnings from economists sympathetic to her growth strategy that the mini-budget that ultimately led to her downfall risked triggering a financial markets meltdown, the Guardian has learned….
But days before the start of her premiership, she was told by the economists Gerard Lyons and Julian Jessop that the markets were highly nervous and that she could face a crash if her policy changes were not handled with care.
Jessop said the opportunity to deliver on the growth strategy had now been lost. “Supply-side reforms need a strong, committed prime minister. We have gone back to what we were trying to avoid – a doom loop of tax increases, spending cuts and weak economic growth. A deep recession now starts to look more likely.”
R4 Sir David Liddington stressing the importance of a competent and effective government - and as Michael Howard said Johnson has had his chance.
The interviews with the members which followed. Cripes.
Liddington’s pleas seem to have fallen on deaf ears.
I think the other good point he made is that the Conservative membership* should be consulted when they are in Opposition, but when in government it should be MPs only - as they have a mandate from the whole electorate, not just party members. And if the party membership choice meets electoral approval in a subsequent GE all well and good, and if not, perhaps they’ll learn.
*Would apply to Labour too, if they were ever any good at getting rid of duds.
(1) Guido’s ramping. Boris doesn't actually have more declared support than Sunak. I view this as a sign of weakness - not strength; if he had the real names he'd declare them. He's trying to build an inevitability narrative that doesn't yet exist. (2) Boris hasn't declared he will stand yet. He is taking "soundings" and that doesn't just mean MPs who'd support him, it means taking views of those he knows into account. (3) I expect many MPs to mobilise this morning to declare they'd refuse to serve under him or would resign the whip, which may spook the markets.
DYOR.
I'm slightly green on all outcomes and have given up trying to predict the collection of risibles.
British democracy needs a credible right of centre party. The Conservatives have given up on that.
Comments
It’s not subverting the system if the final decision is up to MPs.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/oct/21/private-rents-britain-hit-record-high-demand-properties
The Liz Truss implosion offers up pros and cons to the U.S. system of governance.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/20/should-america-have-a-no-confidence-vote-in-its-presidents-00062803
He described the RC-135 as a "civilian ISTAR" aircraft. It's not, it's on the UK military register (ZZ serials) and is operated by an active duty RAF crew. Bullshitter or incompetent or poorly briefed.
A low-flying Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1583330108395638784?t=XS4Vmf-_GgFSjEywPNhHHw&s=19
In Boris's case I expect he's wanting to play this as the rebellious nobles asking the king to return, for him to appear reluctant but willing to accept this honour.
What was weird was when Raab went from first Secretary of state, in effect deputy, to deputy PM.
https://twitter.com/xruiztru/status/1583076721536172036/photo/1
Changing the leader is not enough. The Tory Party needs a serious reckoning with its recent past, & with the forces that made Truss possible. [THREAD]
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1583110662230016006
https://twitter.com/wmarybeard/status/1567039650027413506
And that's something the chancellor and OBR will be looking at very closely over the coming few days
https://twitter.com/FelicityHannah/status/1583339871816810496
But I knew there was some similarity to Boris, which you've highlighted.
I don’t think he’ll run
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1583339396153020416
Although I had thought Johnson unembarrasable but with one eye on his record he won’t want the humiliation of either not getting enough nominees or getting eliminated first.
One friend tells me: "It is too early. In Autumn next year the party will be on its knees.
"He is walking into a sh*t show he can't control. They need to be on their knees."
More: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/20/liz-truss-news-resign-pm-conservative-party-general-election/
By not running, he could make himself kingmaker.
But I reckon it'll depend on whether he thinks he can turn around the party's fortunes. If he thinks he will lose against Starmer, then he will not run.
For Johnson, like to many MPs of all parties, it is not about the good of the country. It is about HIM.
Boris doesn't do detail. Doesn't do economics. Doesn't do propriety. He does boosterism - and in the Truss mess there will be no boosting. He wouldn't have fun being the person responsible for swinging cuts and under endless investigation about his dodgy trip to see Lebedev and his lies to parliament etc etc
Named support as opposed to voting in a secret ballot may leave a reasonable number of Tory MPs shy non voters?
But it highlights the limits of local by-elections as a thermometer. Fear the local factors, dear boy.
But days before the start of her premiership, she was told by the economists Gerard Lyons and Julian Jessop that the markets were highly nervous and that she could face a crash if her policy changes were not handled with care.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/21/liz-truss-ignored-economists-stark-warnings-over-mini-budget
Harsh, yes. Media students (and current broadcast journalists!) take note: your edit is nothing without the right choice of music. And oh boy this is quite the choice. https://twitter.com/timoncheese/status/1583216768986013701/video/1
Labour 53%
Conservatives 14%
Lib Dems 11%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
Which (I hope) is why the 100 nomination rule is there. There are sufficient Conservative MPs who have been personally let down by BoJo that it may be out of reach. Looking at his list of backers, it's very third rate.
If we all deem the party and country is at its lowest now you know what the only way is, don't you.
https://twitter.com/fraser_ons_psf/status/1583337432321097729
Boris Johnson is the only potential candidate with a political mandate. He is the reason why the Tories won the 2019 election as they did. But he is also a PM who was hounded out of office a few months ago following scandal after scandal with strongly negative approval ratings.
So his mandate of 2019 is tenuous at best here in 2022. But tenuous is at least something that exists. Unlike the "mandate" that Sunak or Mordaunt or Braverman could clam. No candidate is going to unify the party, so the paper majority doesn't exist in practice.
I still think a spring 2023 election is on. Whichever PM we get next - the disgraced last-but-one one or yet another retread replacement - they are going to seriously struggle to maintain parliamentary discipline and actually govern. With massive poll disapproval and an overwhelming sense of fatigue against them.
The only comfort I take from this whole sorry saga and the likely Johnson redux is this: for a man who loves a Carribbean holiday he missed his moment in the sun, and he was out of office long enough for the history books to write him out of being QE2's last PM and KC3's first PM.
Scant consolation indeed, but consolation nonetheless.
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Who really believes the Tories can command the support of 14% of the country?
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
I just get a strong sense that we are about to get a spate of defections and/or by-elections.
Ker-fuck-ching.
I will speak always favourably about Liz Truss, her premiership has helped me win over £2,000, not bad for fewer than seven weeks.
The only one I can see actually managing to ride it out a little longer is Penny, and then probably only so far as a year, tops. Because she’s not closely related to a particular faction she’s in a better place to bring more people together. But the party is on the whole ungovernable, so she’ll run into some issue that will ignite a split.
If Boris wins then I think the majority will evaporate and I think we’ll be looking at an immediate GE.
If Rishi wins the amount of undermining from the usual suspects will make things ungovernable and I suspect he’ll have probably until January at the latest, before he’ll need to go to the country.
He’s available at 4.x on Betfair.
(1) Guido’s ramping. Boris doesn't actually have more declared support than Sunak. I view this as a sign of weakness - not strength; if he had the real names he'd declare them. He's trying to build an inevitability narrative that doesn't yet exist.
(2) Boris hasn't declared he will stand yet. He is taking "soundings" and that doesn't just mean MPs who'd support him, it means taking views of those he knows into account.
(3) I expect many MPs to mobilise this morning to declare they'd refuse to serve under him or would resign the whip, which may spook the markets.
DYOR.
But governments are serious things even if spokespeople are not. All it needs is a new leader to get a grip and all will return to normal, so no one should feel that embarrassed by this period causing amusement.
The only way is up from here??
I actually wondered if we’d get a big spread in the Sundays from (say) 40 or so MPs confirming they’d resign the whip if BoJo returned, thereby essentially telling other MPs/members they would be voting for a new GE.
The slight issue with this tactic is it risks enraging the BoJo backers so much that they actually make a counter-threat. Thereby essentially making an immediate GE inevitable (and probably leading to a Boris win because he’s (sadly) the best chance the Tories have at the moment of salvaging something).
I am starting to think a December GE is possible again. Does the parliamentary timetable allow for it or would it actually be held in January?
But it would be highly amusing, in the most inappropriate way.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583349321399160832
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Jessop said the opportunity to deliver on the growth strategy had now been lost. “Supply-side reforms need a strong, committed prime minister. We have gone back to what we were trying to avoid – a doom loop of tax increases, spending cuts and weak economic growth. A deep recession now starts to look more likely.”
I think the other good point he made is that the Conservative membership* should be consulted when they are in Opposition, but when in government it should be MPs only - as they have a mandate from the whole electorate, not just party members. And if the party membership choice meets electoral approval in a subsequent GE all well and good, and if not, perhaps they’ll learn.
*Would apply to Labour too, if they were ever any good at getting rid of duds.
Ross, Moray, leader Scottish Tories
Adams, Selby & Ainsty
Afriyie, Windsor
Blunt, Reigate
Penning, Hemel Hempstead
Walker, Broxbourne
Surely that list is going to triple or quadruple shortly?
We could have both Scotland & Ireland in Super 12 stage.
British democracy needs a credible right of centre party. The Conservatives have given up on that.