If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government. KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters. Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely. If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.
Yes - there is one more round of self harm baked in, before Starmer can become PM.
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
Yes, I am 100% confident Sunak will stand.
Do you think he is too short?
In the betting markets.
There's a pretty big height difference between Sunak and Hunt.
I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
Slightly surreal experience of the tiny river (catchment area 15 sqm) that rises about half a mile from my house being one of only 2 flood warnings in the country.
The other one was the slightly less tiny river it runs into.
James Kirkup @jameskirkup Gilt yields shd be positively correlated with # Tory MPs pledging support for Boris Johnson - regardless of whether he stands/wins. More Boris pledges = the more unleadable the party becomes = ⬇️ chance of fiscal sustainability.
If Tory MPs contrive to put Boris on the ballot paper then they deserve everything that's coming to them in 2024. A complete and utter wipe out. They'll finish on under 100 seats.
Tories have just changed the rulebook by the looks of it.
Only the proposer and seconder is going to be formally identified - the other 98 are going to be anonymous.
I suspect that adds to Bozo's chances.
This actually makes sense, too.
Members of the current government (especially whips, chair and vice chairs of party and 1922 ctte members) often don't declare publicly for reasons of party unity.
Then they shouldn't be privately telling people either, since the effect is the same - it boosts a candidate.
A study by the Economist, years back, showed that in the cocaine trade (far more stable) nearly everyone made less than minimum wage. The ratio of big money guys to peons was such that working a MacDonalds was far better - orders of magnitude more chance that they would give you a loan to start your own branch. That plus the whole death/prison thing.
I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
"Johnson has no interest in economics"
Johnson leaves economics to his chancellor. Truss' problem was that she was far too interested in economics.
Boris Gov't was economically fine tbh - it was the other bits people had an issue with.
Slightly surreal experience of the tiny river (catchment area 15 sqm) that rises about half a mile from my house being one of only 2 flood warnings in the country.
The other one was the slightly less tiny river it runs into.
A study by the Economist, years back, showed that in the cocaine trade (far more stable) nearly everyone made less than minimum wage. The ratio of big money guys to peons was such that working a MacDonalds was far better - orders of magnitude more chance that they would give you a loan to start your own branch. That plus the whole death/prison thing.
I wish I'd known that before accepting a new job offer...
Edit: It does make think of an episode of American Dad, where Stan is infiltrating a rebel/terror group and stirring them up with HR style complaints about lack of holidays, overtime pay, not getting to keep looted valuables and the like. And the best - "You're telling me child soldiers make less money than adult soldiers? That is morally indefensible!"
If Tory MPs contrive to put Boris on the ballot paper then they deserve everything that's coming to them in 2024. A complete and utter wipe out. They'll finish on under 100 seats.
We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
We could hire the SNP to run England.
They can't even run a small shipyard in Glasgow or a half-decent police service. Letting them loose in England would not end well.
Could it be worse?
It could be as bad. And we want - need - an improvement.
About the only thing I will say for the SNP is that they're not quite as inept as Llafur Cymru.
But that's a bit like saying somebody is less of a risk to sound money than Robert Maxwell.
Well, look at Modern Railways magazine. They consistently rate the SG as actually being interested in railways, in contrast to ....
And they've done some half-decent work with railways, but as with the UK government they tend to end up being a bit half-arsed. The reopened Waverley line, for example, should really have been electrified ab initio. But it isn't. And the Highland Line had a really good start a few years back, but seems to have fizzled out (although that may be Covid). Similarly although there are big improvements in train (no pun intended) on the Aberdeen line, I'm puzzled at their reluctance to electrify it.
I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
"Johnson has no interest in economics"
Johnson leaves economics to his chancellor. Truss' problem was that she was far too interested in economics.
Boris Gov't was economically fine tbh - it was the other bits people had an issue with.
If you consider jacking up taxes on people who work for a living, in order to boost welfare and cut taxes for those who don't, economically fine ...
"Keir Starmer has joined calls for Liz Truss to decline the allowance of up to £115,000 a year she will be entitled to as a former prime minister.
The Labour leader told ITV’s Good Morning Britain on Friday: “She should turn it down. I think that’s the right thing to do. She’s done 44 days in office, she’s not really entitled to it, she should turn it down and not take it.”
The Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, also said she should turn down the allowance."
Weirdly the most recent guido post is actually more cautious on both Boris running and the desirability of that, despite the nomination ramping.
Good morning
I really do not think Johnson is going to put himself forward unless he is confident he can get into the last two and win
He really does not do humiliation which it would be if he failed
My feeling is the same - as also with Trump - its as much about missing being the centre of attention as any genuine intention to return to the heavy lifting.
The smart money is probably on laying Johnson - I've had a little dabble but am made nervous by having been stung the last time I laid him
He does have that reputation, though I can't speak from your personal knowledge.
Weirdly the most recent guido post is actually more cautious on both Boris running and the desirability of that, despite the nomination ramping.
Good morning
I really do not think Johnson is going to put himself forward unless he is confident he can get into the last two and win
He really does not do humiliation which it would be if he failed
My feeling is the same - as also with Trump - its as much about missing being the centre of attention as any genuine intention to return to the heavy lifting.
The smart money is probably on laying Johnson - I've had a little dabble but am made nervous by having been stung the last time I laid him
He does have that reputation, though I can't speak from your personal knowledge.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
And that's the best argument for him not running now.
Jesus wept but there could be another contest to come next year. This parliament still has 2 years and 3 months to run.
The other alternative is that enough MPs pledge to leave the party (cross the floor or more likely sit as independents) such that Boris would immediately become PM of a minority Government and risk humiliation in an immediate general election. Hero to zero to hero to zero who broke up the Party - just stay out and keep taking the speaking engagement money, Boris.
Just in the general nature of these things I don't imagine that there would be enough outright whip resigners (or, less helpfully in the short term, seat resigners) to remove the effective majority, but it could take a sizeable bite out of it.
A study by the Economist, years back, showed that in the cocaine trade (far more stable) nearly everyone made less than minimum wage. The ratio of big money guys to peons was such that working a MacDonalds was far better - orders of magnitude more chance that they would give you a loan to start your own branch. That plus the whole death/prison thing.
So cocaine users like Gove perpetuating human misery. Quelle surprise.
James Kirkup @jameskirkup Gilt yields shd be positively correlated with # Tory MPs pledging support for Boris Johnson - regardless of whether he stands/wins. More Boris pledges = the more unleadable the party becomes = ⬇️ chance of fiscal sustainability.
Gilt yields rising and sterling falling this morning on concerns that Johnson might return and Hunt’s October 31 statement might be either delayed or canned.
I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
"Johnson has no interest in economics"
Johnson leaves economics to his chancellor. Truss' problem was that she was far too interested in economics.
Boris Gov't was economically fine tbh - it was the other bits people had an issue with.
If you consider jacking up taxes on people who work for a living, in order to boost welfare and cut taxes for those who don't, economically fine ...
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
Post of the week.
I didn’t think this could get any funnier, but each passing hour brings a bounty of new delights.
I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
"Johnson has no interest in economics"
Johnson leaves economics to his chancellor. Truss' problem was that she was far too interested in economics.
Boris Gov't was economically fine tbh - it was the other bits people had an issue with.
If you consider jacking up taxes on people who work for a living, in order to boost welfare and cut taxes for those who don't, economically fine ...
It didn't cause a meltdown at least.
Not convinced that "managed decline" is much better than turmoil that could lead to growth.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
The best outcome is some combination of Sunak, Hunt and Mordant running the show until they don't any more.
It won't be much fun, but hangovers rarely are. The question for the next few days is whether the Conservative party is ready to face its hangover, or whether it wants another round of hair of the dog.
Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
And that's the best argument for him not running now.
Jesus wept but there could be another contest to come next year. This parliament still has 2 years and 3 months to run.
The other alternative is that enough MPs pledge to leave the party (cross the floor or more likely sit as independents) such that Boris would immediately become PM of a minority Government and risk humiliation in an immediate general election. Hero to zero to hero to zero who broke up the Party - just stay out and keep taking the speaking engagement money, Boris.
Just in the general nature of these things I don't imagine that there will be enough outright whip resigners (or, less helpfully in the short term, seat resigners) to remove the effective majority, but it could take a sizeable bite out of it.
To stop Boris running they need around 40. Not impossible.
Or Jeremy Hunt saying he couldn't work with Boris should spook the markets. Nadine as Chancellor, anyone?
James Kirkup @jameskirkup Gilt yields shd be positively correlated with # Tory MPs pledging support for Boris Johnson - regardless of whether he stands/wins. More Boris pledges = the more unleadable the party becomes = ⬇️ chance of fiscal sustainability.
Gilt yields rising and sterling falling this morning on concerns that Johnson might return and Hunt’s October 31 statement might be either delayed or canned.
The gilts genie can't easily be put back in the bottle now LizT and Kwasi let it out.
Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
And that's the best argument for him not running now.
Jesus wept but there could be another contest to come next year. This parliament still has 2 years and 3 months to run.
The other alternative is that enough MPs pledge to leave the party (cross the floor or more likely sit as independents) such that Boris would immediately become PM of a minority Government and risk humiliation in an immediate general election. Hero to zero to hero to zero who broke up the Party - just stay out and keep taking the speaking engagement money, Boris.
Just in the general nature of these things I don't imagine that there will be enough outright whip resigners (or, less helpfully in the short term, seat resigners) to remove the effective majority, but it could take a sizeable bite out of it.
To stop Boris running they need around 40. Not impossible.
Or Jeremy Hunt saying he couldn't work with Boris should spook the markets. Nadine as Chancellor, anyone?
That wouldn't spook the markets, that would destroy them.
In next 48 hours I expect Sunak to announce his candidacy, with the support of almost all of the big beasts including Mordant and Hunt. It will be done in a way that appears overwhelming.
There will be a reaction from the stop-Sunak/right brigade to find an alternative candidate. It might be Boris, but probably not. If it is not Boris, (Braverman) it will struggle to reach 100.
50:50 that there is a contest. Sunak could be PM on Monday.
In next 48 hours I expect Sunak to announce his candidacy, with the support of almost all of the big beasts including Mordant and Hunt. It will be done in a way that appears overwhelming.
There will be a reaction from the stop-Sunak/right brigade to find an alternative candidate. It might be Boris, but probably not. If it is not Boris, (Braverman) it will struggle to reach 100.
50:50 that there is a contest. Sunak could be PM on Monday.
We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
We could hire the SNP to run England.
They can't even run a small shipyard in Glasgow or a half-decent police service. Letting them loose in England would not end well.
Could it be worse?
It could be as bad. And we want - need - an improvement.
About the only thing I will say for the SNP is that they're not quite as inept as Llafur Cymru.
But that's a bit like saying somebody is less of a risk to sound money than Robert Maxwell.
Well, look at Modern Railways magazine. They consistently rate the SG as actually being interested in railways, in contrast to ....
And they've done some half-decent work with railways, but as with the UK government they tend to end up being a bit half-arsed. The reopened Waverley line, for example, should really have been electrified ab initio. But it isn't. And the Highland Line had a really good start a few years back, but seems to have fizzled out (although that may be Covid). Similarly although there are big improvements in train (no pun intended) on the Aberdeen line, I'm puzzled at their reluctance to electrify it.
The problem may in part be that they use or used the same planning models as HM Treasury - whatever they used, the business model seems to have downplayed usage: the Borders Railway (only the northern part of the Waverley Line, to be strict) was expected to have a fraction of the actual passenger usage, and IIRC also the Bathgate line electrification which was in fact a wild success. So the BR was under spec - single line in parts, and annoyingly with the bridges not built to allow doubling without reconstruction. But there was a great deal of hostility from Tories etc which didn't help.
More generally the electrification tends to be spreading out from the main central belt lines, with easy/infill bits done first.
I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
"Johnson has no interest in economics"
Johnson leaves economics to his chancellor. Truss' problem was that she was far too interested in economics.
Boris Gov't was economically fine tbh - it was the other bits people had an issue with.
If you consider jacking up taxes on people who work for a living, in order to boost welfare and cut taxes for those who don't, economically fine ...
It didn't cause a meltdown at least.
Not convinced that "managed decline" is much better than turmoil that could lead to growth.
Truss and Kwarteng's turmoil has done economic damage. No chance of it leading to growth.
But the status quo ante wasn't good enough either. It was simply bleeding out at a slower rate.
Recent local government elections do not equate to Labour 55% Tory 23%, I know they are localised, but can someone explain, in my eyes the Tories are not bottoming out, although they should be
This is very difficult. As a dyed in the wool Tory supporter I cannot countenance a Boris return. Despite his undoubted charisma and huge talent he has already proved to be flawed and deeply unsuited to the role of a PM - especially in a nation facing the current economic headwinds. It matters not that most of those are externally sourced. His flaws completely outweigh his talents for the job in hand. Worse his return with the likes of Bone, Rees Mogg & Chope at his flanks is simply out of tune with where the public are. The next GE is already lost and deservedly so. However, to lose this great party from British political life on the altar of personal ego would be a tragedy.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
The best outcome is some combination of Sunak, Hunt and Mordant running the show until they don't any more.
It won't be much fun, but hangovers rarely are. The question for the next few days is whether the Conservative party is ready to face its hangover, or whether it wants another round of hair of the dog.
They’re junkies. Cold turkey or another trip? They choose the trip every time.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
The best outcome is some combination of Sunak, Hunt and Mordant running the show until they don't any more.
It won't be much fun, but hangovers rarely are. The question for the next few days is whether the Conservative party is ready to face its hangover, or whether it wants another round of hair of the dog.
Mordaunt as PM, Sunak swanning about as as business oriented foreign sec and Hunt as Chancellor. Kemi as Home Sec to keep the full on nutters out the top jobs, Wallace as DefSec.
It’s what we should have had last time until Sunak thought he was being on so clever gaming the vote.
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.
Whatever the statistics tell you, have you seen Mr Chope in action? Perhaps curtailing the up-skirting or FMG Private Member's Bills. The man isn't just an out of touch disgrace to the Conservative Party and Christchurch, he is a disgrace to humanity.
We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
We could hire the SNP to run England.
They can't even run a small shipyard in Glasgow or a half-decent police service. Letting them loose in England would not end well.
Could it be worse?
It could be as bad. And we want - need - an improvement.
About the only thing I will say for the SNP is that they're not quite as inept as Llafur Cymru.
But that's a bit like saying somebody is less of a risk to sound money than Robert Maxwell.
Well, look at Modern Railways magazine. They consistently rate the SG as actually being interested in railways, in contrast to ....
And they've done some half-decent work with railways, but as with the UK government they tend to end up being a bit half-arsed. The reopened Waverley line, for example, should really have been electrified ab initio. But it isn't. And the Highland Line had a really good start a few years back, but seems to have fizzled out (although that may be Covid). Similarly although there are big improvements in train (no pun intended) on the Aberdeen line, I'm puzzled at their reluctance to electrify it.
The problem may in part be that they use or used the same planning models as HM Treasury - whatever they used, the business model seems to have downplayed usage: the Borders Railway (only the northern part of the Waverley Line, to be strict) was expected to have a fraction of the actual passenger usage, and IIRC also the Bathgate line electrification which was in fact a wild success. So the BR was under spec - single line in parts, and annoyingly with the bridges not built to allow doubling without reconstruction. But there was a great deal of hostility from Tories etc which didn't help.
More generally the electrification tends to be spreading out from the main central belt lines, with easy/infill bits done first.
Then why did they not use their autonomy in both fiscal and transport matters to say the 'planning model' was broken and come up with a new one? Which has been obvious for a very long time even before the fraud that was the IRP.
I didn't even know about the failure to allow for doubling. That's extraordinary in the circumstances. Even the Cambrian Line to Aberystwyth allowed for that.
This is very difficult. As a dyed in the wool Tory supporter I cannot countenance a Boris return. Despite his undoubted charisma and huge talent he has already proved to be flawed and deeply unsuited to the role of a PM - especially in a nation facing the current economic headwinds. It matters not that most of those are externally sourced. His flaws completely outweigh his talents for the job in hand. Worse his return with the likes of Bone, Rees Mogg & Chope at his flanks is simply out of tune with where the public are. The next GE is already lost and deservedly so. However, to lose this great party from British political life on the altar of personal ego would be a tragedy.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
It will be Rishi
Rishi will select a relatively sensible Cabinet, have relatively sensible policies and in 2024 have a relatively sensible GE campaign with the private target of getting around 200-225 seats as a base to rebuild on after the GE.
DYOR 👍
He won't last that long. The party will be trying to kill him at every turn.
I think you are right (even if he is not actually ousted prior to throwing up his hands and calling a GE).
I don't think people realise that the ERG-types don't give a fig for the Tory Party, the Country etc. They wrap themselves in Tory iconography but their actions speak louder than their words.
I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
"Johnson has no interest in economics"
Johnson leaves economics to his chancellor. Truss' problem was that she was far too interested in economics.
Boris Gov't was economically fine tbh - it was the other bits people had an issue with.
If you consider jacking up taxes on people who work for a living, in order to boost welfare and cut taxes for those who don't, economically fine ...
It didn't cause a meltdown at least.
Not convinced that "managed decline" is much better than turmoil that could lead to growth.
No one but they seemed confident it would lead to enough growth to do what they claimed. Some, maybe, but not to add up.
Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
And that's the best argument for him not running now.
Jesus wept but there could be another contest to come next year. This parliament still has 2 years and 3 months to run.
The other alternative is that enough MPs pledge to leave the party (cross the floor or more likely sit as independents) such that Boris would immediately become PM of a minority Government and risk humiliation in an immediate general election. Hero to zero to hero to zero who broke up the Party - just stay out and keep taking the speaking engagement money, Boris.
Just in the general nature of these things I don't imagine that there will be enough outright whip resigners (or, less helpfully in the short term, seat resigners) to remove the effective majority, but it could take a sizeable bite out of it.
To stop Boris running they need around 40. Not impossible.
Or Jeremy Hunt saying he couldn't work with Boris should spook the markets. Nadine as Chancellor, anyone?
Thats a fair point. Could Boris work with Hunt, and would he sign up to that Hunt is preparing for 30 October?
Sunak should publicly say he supports Hunt, would work with what he does on 31 Oct and challenge Boris to do the same.
We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
We could hire the SNP to run England.
Why? Do you think they are any more competent than the alternatives? Have you seen the ferry scandal? Seen the stats for the fully devolved Scottish NHS? Don't be fooled by Sturgeon's persona. She has serious memory issues going on there somewhere. "I don't recall" should be her catchphrase.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
At least we'll get animal welfare and climate change back on the agenda with Johnson 2.0. If he's still with Nut Nut these days.
I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
"Johnson has no interest in economics"
Johnson leaves economics to his chancellor. Truss' problem was that she was far too interested in economics.
Boris Gov't was economically fine tbh - it was the other bits people had an issue with.
If you consider jacking up taxes on people who work for a living, in order to boost welfare and cut taxes for those who don't, economically fine ...
It didn't cause a meltdown at least.
Not convinced that "managed decline" is much better than turmoil that could lead to growth.
Truss and Kwarteng's turmoil has done economic damage. No chance of it leading to growth.
But the status quo ante wasn't good enough either. It was simply bleeding out at a slower rate.
Sometimes damage is needed to make a change for the better. Axing the heinous Health and Social Care Levy was absolutely the right thing to do and worthwhile having Truss as PM if only for seeing that be stillborn.
But even that was only taking us back to the status quo ante before Sunak.
Truss and Kwarteng had the right overall idea, but we need a good way to get there.
A study by the Economist, years back, showed that in the cocaine trade (far more stable) nearly everyone made less than minimum wage. The ratio of big money guys to peons was such that working a MacDonalds was far better - orders of magnitude more chance that they would give you a loan to start your own branch. That plus the whole death/prison thing.
I wish I'd known that before accepting a new job offer...
Edit: It does make think of an episode of American Dad, where Stan is infiltrating a rebel/terror group and stirring them up with HR style complaints about lack of holidays, overtime pay, not getting to keep looted valuables and the like. And the best - "You're telling me child soldiers make less money than adult soldiers? That is morally indefensible!"
IIRC they worked out that the delivered cost of cocaine, if run by a pharmaceutical company at the scale of the illegal trade, was something like $50... a kilo. Essentially the supply chain is a gang of idiots all stealing from each other.
This is why legalisation of drugs *should* wipe out the illegal providers overnight - they could be undercut to prices they can't offer. And leave room for vast taxation and profits.
We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
We could hire the SNP to run England.
They can't even run a small shipyard in Glasgow or a half-decent police service. Letting them loose in England would not end well.
Could it be worse?
It could be as bad. And we want - need - an improvement.
About the only thing I will say for the SNP is that they're not quite as inept as Llafur Cymru.
But that's a bit like saying somebody is less of a risk to sound money than Robert Maxwell.
Well, look at Modern Railways magazine. They consistently rate the SG as actually being interested in railways, in contrast to ....
And they've done some half-decent work with railways, but as with the UK government they tend to end up being a bit half-arsed. The reopened Waverley line, for example, should really have been electrified ab initio. But it isn't. And the Highland Line had a really good start a few years back, but seems to have fizzled out (although that may be Covid). Similarly although there are big improvements in train (no pun intended) on the Aberdeen line, I'm puzzled at their reluctance to electrify it.
The problem may in part be that they use or used the same planning models as HM Treasury - whatever they used, the business model seems to have downplayed usage: the Borders Railway (only the northern part of the Waverley Line, to be strict) was expected to have a fraction of the actual passenger usage, and IIRC also the Bathgate line electrification which was in fact a wild success. So the BR was under spec - single line in parts, and annoyingly with the bridges not built to allow doubling without reconstruction. But there was a great deal of hostility from Tories etc which didn't help.
More generally the electrification tends to be spreading out from the main central belt lines, with easy/infill bits done first.
Then why did they not use their autonomy in both fiscal and transport matters to say the 'planning model' was broken and come up with a new one? Which has been obvious for a very long time even before the fraud that was the IRP.
I didn't even know about the failure to allow for doubling. That's extraordinary in the circumstances. Even the Cambrian Line to Aberystwyth allowed for that.
I would hope they have learnt their lesson. But there is a common factor in Network Rail, possibly, though I don't know enough. But the failure to double seems to have been down to Transport Scotland to keep within budget (which at least makes some sort of sense, from one pov).
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.
Whatever the statistics tell you, have you seen Mr Chope in action? Perhaps curtailing the up-skirting or FMG Private Member's Bills. The man isn't just an out of touch disgrace to the Conservative Party and Christchurch, he is a disgrace to humanity.
I followed that story. I understood why he did - he was following his principle that only the government should introduce new criminal offences - and people are always complaining that politicians should follow their principles rather than chasing popularity. And, of course, when the government brought the legislation to introduce those offences, he supported them. And his constituency voters seem to mostly understand that.
It's a good example of why sensible clever people no longer go into politics - you get torrents of abuse no matter what you do, so going into politics is not a sensible or clever thing to do.
Recent local government elections do not equate to Labour 55% Tory 23%, I know they are localised, but can someone explain, in my eyes the Tories are not bottoming out, although they should be
Suggests that quite a lot of the current low opinion poll scores for the Tories is related to Truss personally, and voters can disassociate that from local council candidates.
It suggests a large relief rally for the Tories under a new PM - but the upcoming fiscal statement, and any infighting under a new PM, would be contrary factors.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
At least we'll get animal welfare and climate change back on the agenda with Johnson 2.0. If he's still with Nut Nut these days.
I so hope it's Johnson just for the bleak comedy.
My wife made a similar point to me earlier. A liar who does something about animal welfare and the environment is a better option to her than an honest Libertarian.
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
It will be Rishi
Rishi will select a relatively sensible Cabinet, have relatively sensible policies and in 2024 have a relatively sensible GE campaign with the private target of getting around 200-225 seats as a base to rebuild on after the GE.
DYOR 👍
He won't last that long. The party will be trying to kill him at every turn.
I think you are right (even if he is not actually ousted prior to throwing up his hands and calling a GE).
I don't think people realise that the ERG-types don't give a fig for the Tory Party, the Country etc. They wrap themselves in Tory iconography but their actions speak louder than their words.
They are nutters who the Tories have lived in fear of for decades. They should have been cleaned out when the Tories were in opposition, but they were not and we are now paying the price.
TBF to the Tories, Labour's nutters set Corbyn up and then allowed the entryist members to vote and back him so they were not much wiser, but at least they seem to be cleaning out the fools and extremists whereas many Tories seem to admire theirs.
I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
The comments on ConHome suggest that, in addition to the purist fanatics for whom nothing matters other than their warped world view, there are more thinking members who think that the Conservatives are now in such a deep hole that only a reckless gamble stands any chance of turning things around. The mood is of a gambler after a losing run who puts every last penny on a rank outsider, and prays.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
At least we'll get animal welfare and climate change back on the agenda with Johnson 2.0. If he's still with Nut Nut these days.
I so hope it's Johnson just for the bleak comedy.
My wife made a similar point to me earlier. A liar who does something about animal welfare and the environment is a better option to her than an honest Libertarian.
This is @BartholomewRoberts' view - Liz Truss was a fantastic PM because she did the one thing that he thought was important to do. The rest of it can go hang. Where this leaves the overall welfare of the country, and how you avoid the slippery at least the trains ran on time slope I'm not 100% sure...
And the Ukranian solution is Better Call Boris? Though they seemed to have thought better of looking a bit twattish and have deleted their tweet.
They are getting a bit up themselves these days with shit like that and shrill demands about what Israel should do for them.
God forbid a nation which has been invaded gets desperate and so over steps in its pleading/demands. Perhaps if we mock Zekensky as a Disney prince in retaliation, get into a twitter birthright about it?
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.
Whatever the statistics tell you, have you seen Mr Chope in action? Perhaps curtailing the up-skirting or FMG Private Member's Bills. The man isn't just an out of touch disgrace to the Conservative Party and Christchurch, he is a disgrace to humanity.
I followed that story. I understood why he did - he was following his principle that only the government should introduce new criminal offences - and people are always complaining that politicians should follow their principles rather than chasing popularity. And, of course, when the government brought the legislation to introduce those offences, he supported them. And his constituency voters seem to mostly understand that.
It's a good example of why sensible clever people no longer go into politics - you get torrents of abuse no matter what you do, so going into politics is not a sensible or clever thing to do.
No. He unilaterally decided that Private Member's Bills that were not tabled by his friends were unconstitutional. You are pretty much alone in your defence of this outrageous oaf over the two issues I quoted. A simply appalling man who has never represented "clever".
And the Ukranian solution is Better Call Boris? Though they seemed to have thought better of looking a bit twattish and have deleted their tweet.
They are getting a bit up themselves these days with shit like that and shrill demands about what Israel should do for them.
God forbid a nation which has been invaded gets desperate and so over steps in its pleading/demands. Perhaps if we mock Zekensky as a Disney prince in retaliation, get into a twitter birthright about it?
Some of Britains demands from other countries in 1940 were a bit strident.
A study by the Economist, years back, showed that in the cocaine trade (far more stable) nearly everyone made less than minimum wage. The ratio of big money guys to peons was such that working a MacDonalds was far better - orders of magnitude more chance that they would give you a loan to start your own branch. That plus the whole death/prison thing.
I wish I'd known that before accepting a new job offer...
Edit: It does make think of an episode of American Dad, where Stan is infiltrating a rebel/terror group and stirring them up with HR style complaints about lack of holidays, overtime pay, not getting to keep looted valuables and the like. And the best - "You're telling me child soldiers make less money than adult soldiers? That is morally indefensible!"
IIRC they worked out that the delivered cost of cocaine, if run by a pharmaceutical company at the scale of the illegal trade, was something like $50... a kilo. Essentially the supply chain is a gang of idiots all stealing from each other.
This is why legalisation of drugs *should* wipe out the illegal providers overnight - they could be undercut to prices they can't offer. And leave room for vast taxation and profits.
This was also in Freakonomics (something like, "Why drug dealers still live with their mums?").
Their answer wasn't that they were idiots for working in a dangerous job for little money, but that they were hoping to rise to the top, where the real money was. They might have been idiots for taking the risk for such a small chance, but they were ambitious idiots.
Recent local government elections do not equate to Labour 55% Tory 23%, I know they are localised, but can someone explain, in my eyes the Tories are not bottoming out, although they should be
The Tories gained a seat from the LDs last night in Suella Braverman's constituency.
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.
Whatever the statistics tell you, have you seen Mr Chope in action? Perhaps curtailing the up-skirting or FMG Private Member's Bills. The man isn't just an out of touch disgrace to the Conservative Party and Christchurch, he is a disgrace to humanity.
I followed that story. I understood why he did - he was following his principle that only the government should introduce new criminal offences - and people are always complaining that politicians should follow their principles rather than chasing popularity. And, of course, when the government brought the legislation to introduce those offences, he supported them. And his constituency voters seem to mostly understand that.
It's a good example of why sensible clever people no longer go into politics - you get torrents of abuse no matter what you do, so going into politics is not a sensible or clever thing to do.
He is not principled, he's allowed other things to go through, and his supposed belief it's an improper route doesn't make it so since the route exists as a proper parliamentary procedure.
It allows him to frustrate things too, but if on good faith he should have a reason other than an incorrect view its improper.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
At least we'll get animal welfare and climate change back on the agenda with Johnson 2.0. If he's still with Nut Nut these days.
I so hope it's Johnson just for the bleak comedy.
My wife made a similar point to me earlier. A liar who does something about animal welfare and the environment is a better option to her than an honest Libertarian.
To think flying dogs rather than brownies out of Kabul is a victory is not an example of concern for animal welfare.
And the Ukranian solution is Better Call Boris? Though they seemed to have thought better of looking a bit twattish and have deleted their tweet.
They are getting a bit up themselves these days with shit like that and shrill demands about what Israel should do for them.
Impudent cheeky little sods aren't they? I imagine people like you believe they are not a real country and have no right to exist and that they should roll over and let Putin give them a jolly good rogering?
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
I actually think Shagger would be the best candidate for the party. He probably can't save them, I'm not sure anyone can, and he's likely to damage them further but with him the mandate stuff pretty much goes away and so too the pressure for an early General Election.
In my view, Boris is the difference between a spring 2023 GE and spring 2024. If the choice is between looking foolish and opposition the Tories will choose foolish. That choice will still lead them into opposition, but will delay it.
I agree with the final 2 sentences but not the rest.
The mandate stuff would not go away. Labour were already ahead in the polls and calling for a GE due to Borisian scandals, they wouldn't stop because he was back.
The mandate talk is always either pretext or something additional, not requirement for calls for a GE.
I'm not so sure. I think the mandate stuff does really matter, if not in a legal/constitutional sense but in a public opinion sense. In Shipman's book All Out War he details the unease that many in May's cabinet felt about going against their mandate in trying to raise (I think) NI. I think it genuinely makes MPs and Ministers uncomfortable to act directly against their mandate for no reason other than a change in PM. Some of them, at least.
I agree that Borisian scandal after scandal will, and should, result in further calls for resignation and either another Tory PM or a GE. But, going with Boris will, imo, remove a weapon from the Opposition arsenal (give them some others, but Boris has no shame) that would help achieve an early GE. That extra time will ensure MPs choose dishonour over war. They should, of course, remember Churchill's words on that subject.
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.
Whatever the statistics tell you, have you seen Mr Chope in action? Perhaps curtailing the up-skirting or FMG Private Member's Bills. The man isn't just an out of touch disgrace to the Conservative Party and Christchurch, he is a disgrace to humanity.
I followed that story. I understood why he did - he was following his principle that only the government should introduce new criminal offences - and people are always complaining that politicians should follow their principles rather than chasing popularity. And, of course, when the government brought the legislation to introduce those offences, he supported them. And his constituency voters seem to mostly understand that.
It's a good example of why sensible clever people no longer go into politics - you get torrents of abuse no matter what you do, so going into politics is not a sensible or clever thing to do.
He is not principled, he's allowed other things to go through, and his supposed belief it's an improper route doesn't make it so since the route exists as a proper parliamentary procedure.
It allows him to frustrate things too, but if on good faith he should have a reason other than an incorrect view its improper.
If his constituents didn't like it, they wouldn't keep re-electing him, though, would they?
Recent local government elections do not equate to Labour 55% Tory 23%, I know they are localised, but can someone explain, in my eyes the Tories are not bottoming out, although they should be
IMHO it's about lack of enthusiasm for Labour. That doesn't mean that voters aren't itching to give the Tory government a good kicking when we finally get the chance - but the reaction to some council by-election is more that they don't give a **** rather than enthusiasm to go out and back the Labour candidate.
If Johnson comes back, I'd tell pollsters I'll vote Labour myself, and there is a reasonable chance I might actually go through with it come the GE. But I have no real enthusiasm for them - just a desire to see the Tories out of government - and they won't be getting my vote in any other elections that might come along.
I just cannot fecking believe it is being seriously mooted to put Johnson back in at the start of what's promising to be a catastrophic economic picture over the next few months.
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
"Johnson has no interest in economics"
Johnson leaves economics to his chancellor. Truss' problem was that she was far too interested in economics.
Boris Gov't was economically fine tbh - it was the other bits people had an issue with.
If you consider jacking up taxes on people who work for a living, in order to boost welfare and cut taxes for those who don't, economically fine ...
It didn't cause a meltdown at least.
Not convinced that "managed decline" is much better than turmoil that could lead to growth.
Truss and Kwarteng's turmoil has done economic damage. No chance of it leading to growth.
But the status quo ante wasn't good enough either. It was simply bleeding out at a slower rate.
Sometimes damage is needed to make a change for the better. Axing the heinous Health and Social Care Levy was absolutely the right thing to do and worthwhile having Truss as PM if only for seeing that be stillborn.
But even that was only taking us back to the status quo ante before Sunak.
Truss and Kwarteng had the right overall idea, but we need a good way to get there.
Yes, sometimes the path to a better future takes us through a difficult present, but it's cargo cult thinking to conclude that willfully causing economic damage will consequently make things better.
I'd take the Hippocratic approach - first do no harm. It might be that the best approach (chemotherapy, amputation) involves some short-term harm to avoid greater harm in the future, and to start on the road to recovery, but I think you'd better have a pretty convincing case for that before you start inflicting harm.
It's not good enough to say the status quo is imperfect and so we have to smash it all up and try again.
Recent local government elections do not equate to Labour 55% Tory 23%, I know they are localised, but can someone explain, in my eyes the Tories are not bottoming out, although they should be
The return of shy Tories. Plus, at the minute, if asked, why say you’d vote Tory? You’d give them a kick for being shit even if you were loyalist.
A study by the Economist, years back, showed that in the cocaine trade (far more stable) nearly everyone made less than minimum wage. The ratio of big money guys to peons was such that working a MacDonalds was far better - orders of magnitude more chance that they would give you a loan to start your own branch. That plus the whole death/prison thing.
I wish I'd known that before accepting a new job offer...
Edit: It does make think of an episode of American Dad, where Stan is infiltrating a rebel/terror group and stirring them up with HR style complaints about lack of holidays, overtime pay, not getting to keep looted valuables and the like. And the best - "You're telling me child soldiers make less money than adult soldiers? That is morally indefensible!"
IIRC they worked out that the delivered cost of cocaine, if run by a pharmaceutical company at the scale of the illegal trade, was something like $50... a kilo. Essentially the supply chain is a gang of idiots all stealing from each other.
This is why legalisation of drugs *should* wipe out the illegal providers overnight - they could be undercut to prices they can't offer. And leave room for vast taxation and profits.
This was also in Freakonomics (something like, "Why drug dealers still live with their mums?").
Their answer wasn't that they were idiots for working in a dangerous job for little money, but that they were hoping to rise to the top, where the real money was. They might have been idiots for taking the risk for such a small chance, but they were ambitious idiots.
Indeed. Get Rich Quick Or Die Trying.
The Economist suggested that the problem was, as often is the case, ignorance of probability. Much more chance of getting rich working at McDonalds, but that possibility wasn't as prominent.
Slightly surreal experience of the tiny river (catchment area 15 sqm) that rises about half a mile from my house being one of only 2 flood warnings in the country.
The other one was the slightly less tiny river it runs into.
Presumably that was the Maunder?
Maun not Maunder. It's the one that Mansfield is named for. Quite a large number of watermills historically, and one at Ollerton is some sort of museum with a very well-regarded cafe, that has to be booked as it is busy. Still has a waterwheel in place, I think.
I do wonder if I can do a bimble down the Maun to there; it's under 15 miles each way.
This year there was even wild swimming on the King's Mill Reservoir (why?), which is ... interesting.
For the politics, the small lake with one of 3 sources is where Jason Zadrozny (him of what I think is still one of the biggest swings in Lib Dem history) sat in a canoe making a video explaining how clever he was to have created a floating Duck Island; obviously planning to be an MP, and could still make it.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
At least we'll get animal welfare and climate change back on the agenda with Johnson 2.0. If he's still with Nut Nut these days.
I so hope it's Johnson just for the bleak comedy.
My wife made a similar point to me earlier. A liar who does something about animal welfare and the environment is a better option to her than an honest Libertarian.
This is @BartholomewRoberts' view - Liz Truss was a fantastic PM because she did the one thing that he thought was important to do. The rest of it can go hang. Where this leaves the overall welfare of the country, and how you avoid the slippery at least the trains ran on time slope I'm not 100% sure...
Yes, but he is a contrarian loon who thinks taking an unpopular view makes him look intelligent, when of course it actually underlines his level of intelligence, but not in the way he hopes.
A study by the Economist, years back, showed that in the cocaine trade (far more stable) nearly everyone made less than minimum wage. The ratio of big money guys to peons was such that working a MacDonalds was far better - orders of magnitude more chance that they would give you a loan to start your own branch. That plus the whole death/prison thing.
I wish I'd known that before accepting a new job offer...
Edit: It does make think of an episode of American Dad, where Stan is infiltrating a rebel/terror group and stirring them up with HR style complaints about lack of holidays, overtime pay, not getting to keep looted valuables and the like. And the best - "You're telling me child soldiers make less money than adult soldiers? That is morally indefensible!"
IIRC they worked out that the delivered cost of cocaine, if run by a pharmaceutical company at the scale of the illegal trade, was something like $50... a kilo. Essentially the supply chain is a gang of idiots all stealing from each other.
This is why legalisation of drugs *should* wipe out the illegal providers overnight - they could be undercut to prices they can't offer. And leave room for vast taxation and profits.
You can't have it available at pocket money prices though. You could profitably sell whisky at a pound a bottle if they didn't put all that duty on it. So it would still have to cost a lot, so an illegal trade could still compete
Mind you the huge attraction of legal illegal drugs would be purity and knowing you were getting pure 100% whatever, no fent or rat poison in the mix.
Comments
Hunt wont work with him presumably???
Johnson has no interest in economics and could care less about piddly little details like the £ rate.
About the only thing I will say for the SNP is that they're not quite as inept as Llafur Cymru.
But that's a bit like saying somebody is less of a risk to sound money than Robert Maxwell.
Morning all.
Slightly surreal experience of the tiny river (catchment area 15 sqm) that rises about half a mile from my house being one of only 2 flood warnings in the country.
The other one was the slightly less tiny river it runs into.
James Kirkup
@jameskirkup
Gilt yields shd be positively correlated with # Tory MPs pledging support for Boris Johnson - regardless of whether he stands/wins. More Boris pledges = the more unleadable the party becomes = ⬇️ chance of fiscal sustainability.
Johnson leaves economics to his chancellor. Truss' problem was that she was far too interested in economics.
Boris Gov't was economically fine tbh - it was the other bits people had an issue with.
I don't think he's value at current odds. I think laying Penny Mordaunt is.
Edit: It does make think of an episode of American Dad, where Stan is infiltrating a rebel/terror group and stirring them up with HR style complaints about lack of holidays, overtime pay, not getting to keep looted valuables and the like. And the best - "You're telling me child soldiers make less money than adult soldiers? That is morally indefensible!"
- “From down here it's like living in a meth lab but you are not even allowed to have any just to lighten the mood.”
The Labour leader told ITV’s Good Morning Britain on Friday: “She should turn it down. I think that’s the right thing to do. She’s done 44 days in office, she’s not really entitled to it, she should turn it down and not take it.”
The Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, also said she should turn down the allowance."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/21/liz-truss-entitlement-ex-prime-ministers-yearly-grant-sparks-fury
Though they seemed to have thought better of looking a bit twattish and have deleted their tweet.
I didn’t think this could get any funnier, but each passing hour brings a bounty of new delights.
It won't be much fun, but hangovers rarely are. The question for the next few days is whether the Conservative party is ready to face its hangover, or whether it wants another round of hair of the dog.
Zimbabwe all over Scotland like a cheap suit here.
Or Jeremy Hunt saying he couldn't work with Boris should spook the markets. Nadine as Chancellor, anyone?
There will be a reaction from the stop-Sunak/right brigade to find an alternative candidate. It might be Boris, but probably not. If it is not Boris, (Braverman) it will struggle to reach 100.
50:50 that there is a contest. Sunak could be PM on Monday.
Liz Truss at Number 10 – a goodbye
https://twitter.com/lidlgb/status/1583098564074672128?s=46&t=CVHWAU56Bjqct3BTV4IS6Q
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1583372255496896512
More generally the electrification tends to be spreading out from the main central belt lines, with easy/infill bits done first.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railway_electrification_in_Scotland
But the status quo ante wasn't good enough either. It was simply bleeding out at a slower rate.
It’s what we should have had last time until Sunak thought he was being on so clever gaming the vote.
I didn't even know about the failure to allow for doubling. That's extraordinary in the circumstances. Even the Cambrian Line to Aberystwyth allowed for that.
I don't think people realise that the ERG-types don't give a fig for the Tory Party, the Country etc. They wrap themselves in Tory iconography but their actions speak louder than their words.
Sunak should publicly say he supports Hunt, would work with what he does on 31 Oct and challenge Boris to do the same.
I so hope it's Johnson just for the bleak comedy.
But even that was only taking us back to the status quo ante before Sunak.
Truss and Kwarteng had the right overall idea, but we need a good way to get there.
Chess: Niemann sues Carlsen and others for $100m after recovery at St Louis
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/oct/21/chess-niemann-sues-carlsen-and-others-for-100m-after-recovery-at-st-louis
Maintained his rating in a tournament where the security measures to prevent cheating were about as good as it gets.
This is why legalisation of drugs *should* wipe out the illegal providers overnight - they could be undercut to prices they can't offer. And leave room for vast taxation and profits.
It's a good example of why sensible clever people no longer go into politics - you get torrents of abuse no matter what you do, so going into politics is not a sensible or clever thing to do.
Seriously?!
It suggests a large relief rally for the Tories under a new PM - but the upcoming fiscal statement, and any infighting under a new PM, would be contrary factors.
TBF to the Tories, Labour's nutters set Corbyn up and then allowed the entryist members to vote and back him so they were not much wiser, but at least they seem to be cleaning out the fools and extremists whereas many Tories seem to admire theirs.
Not to mention Mers-el-Kébir.
Their answer wasn't that they were idiots for working in a dangerous job for little money, but that they were hoping to rise to the top, where the real money was. They might have been idiots for taking the risk for such a small chance, but they were ambitious idiots.
It allows him to frustrate things too, but if on good faith he should have a reason other than an incorrect view its improper.
I agree that Borisian scandal after scandal will, and should, result in further calls for resignation and either another Tory PM or a GE. But, going with Boris will, imo, remove a weapon from the Opposition arsenal (give them some others, but Boris has no shame) that would help achieve an early GE. That extra time will ensure MPs choose dishonour over war. They should, of course, remember Churchill's words on that subject.
If Johnson comes back, I'd tell pollsters I'll vote Labour myself, and there is a reasonable chance I might actually go through with it come the GE. But I have no real enthusiasm for them - just a desire to see the Tories out of government - and they won't be getting my vote in any other elections that might come along.
I'd take the Hippocratic approach - first do no harm. It might be that the best approach (chemotherapy, amputation) involves some short-term harm to avoid greater harm in the future, and to start on the road to recovery, but I think you'd better have a pretty convincing case for that before you start inflicting harm.
It's not good enough to say the status quo is imperfect and so we have to smash it all up and try again.
Of course, one of Boris' biggest problems will be the privileges committee.
We understand No10 has already handed over documents, emails, pictures, messages.
One insider said the evidence was so damning it was likely to lead to a Commons suspension...
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1583226403184553989
The Economist suggested that the problem was, as often is the case, ignorance of probability. Much more chance of getting rich working at McDonalds, but that possibility wasn't as prominent.
I do wonder if I can do a bimble down the Maun to there; it's under 15 miles each way.
This year there was even wild swimming on the King's Mill Reservoir (why?), which is ... interesting.
For the politics, the small lake with one of 3 sources is where Jason Zadrozny (him of what I think is still one of the biggest swings in Lib Dem history) sat in a canoe making a video explaining how clever he was to have created a floating Duck Island; obviously planning to be an MP, and could still make it.
Mind you the huge attraction of legal illegal drugs would be purity and knowing you were getting pure 100% whatever, no fent or rat poison in the mix.