What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1
"But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election"
This happens before he becomes PM?
How do the mechanics on that work? The party splits?
Typo on my part, Boris Johnson as leader leads to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
Resignations and defections lead to the Tory majority in the Commons being wiped out, add in the potential 8 by elections from the Boris Johnson's resignation honours list....
Surely if Bozo is back in No 10 that resignation list is complete irrelevant.
Does Liz get a resignation list as that will be fun.
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.
Rishi is coronated.
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.
Yes, I think a 2022 GE is good value provided that The timetable allows. From a bit of cursory research (DYOR) the time from dissolution to GE is 25 working days which if done by end October/early November would make a December GE just about possible.
Why not just post me your money or flush it down the toilet instead?
If Johnson wins and the government loses its majority, is it such a wild chance?
I found Guidos spreadsheet very helpful in the previous contest. Sad to see it just descend into blatant Boris ramping “1922 board”? “CCHQ Vice Chair” (x2)?
It's up to 15 x anonymous backers this morning - if you take them off his total of 52 Boris is already behind Rishi, who's on 41 named backers.
The interesting question that should be asked is (if true) why so many MPs don't want to go on the record with their support.
It looks to me that all the Boris-ultras came out immediately to declare their support and now looks to be slowing considerably. One hopes that is the case at least. Tories need some boring competence until the next general election. If they can demonstrate that they should be able to climb back up towards 30% if swing-back comes back in. If they continue to in-fight then they face an extinction level event.
Well, it also slowed because unlike me most of them have not been having bad insomnia.
If they impose that drunken criminal on us a second time, I hope they never have a quiet night's sleep again.
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,
I don't know that they have a track record in political polling that we can judge them against, but then Angus Reid were considered a top-rate pollster in Canadian politics and they came rather unstuck.
Their Labour share is actually a touch below the current average, so it's only with the Tory share that they are a step away from the crowd.
Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
BBC have Naga live in Downing Street. Not sure anything is happening there today. She should be in a HoC corridor.
Yesterday they had a helicopter doing live shots of Downing Street during the drama. What was that supposed to help us with?
I've often wondered is the reporters ARE. actually in Downing Street. Or whether it's a mocked up background. Lots of leaves blowing about yesterday though!
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
It will be Rishi
Rishi will select a relatively sensible Cabinet, have relatively sensible policies and in 2024 have a relatively sensible GE campaign with the private target of getting around 200-225 seats as a base to rebuild on after the GE.
What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
How? Tory leadership contest collapses into an infighting pit. No majority as multiple factions busy trying to remove the other. Chuck calls Starmer to the Palace and asks him to pull the non-mental MPs together? Or Chuck dissolves parliament completely and calls an election himself?
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.
Rishi is coronated.
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.
Yes, I think a 2022 GE is good value provided that The timetable allows. From a bit of cursory research (DYOR) the time from dissolution to GE is 25 working days which if done by end October/early November would make a December GE just about possible.
Why not just post me your money or flush it down the toilet instead?
If Johnson wins and the government loses its majority, is it such a wild chance?
In such a situation a GE would surely be set for January, not squeezed in before Christmas.
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.
Rishi is coronated.
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.
Yes, I think a 2022 GE is good value provided that The timetable allows. From a bit of cursory research (DYOR) the time from dissolution to GE is 25 working days which if done by end October/early November would make a December GE just about possible.
Why not just post me your money or flush it down the toilet instead?
If Johnson wins and the government loses its majority, is it such a wild chance?
In such a situation a GE would surely be set for January, not squeezed in before Christmas.
I guess that’s where my question arises. Can’t find a definitive answer as to GE timing. I’ve seen 25 days after dissolution mooted, but I don’t know if that’s a FTPA quirk.
Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
And? Remember Wednesday was a VoNC in the Government but beyond removing the PM it's had none of the normal consequences because a lot of sane MPs abstained and you can't remove both previous PMs.
I really don't see much wrong with Bozo taking a few weeks off when his appearance doesn't actually matter with the Government having a majority of 70.
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
I actually think Shagger would be the best candidate for the party. He probably can't save them, I'm not sure anyone can, and he's likely to damage them further but with him the mandate stuff pretty much goes away and so too the pressure for an early General Election.
In my view, Boris is the difference between a spring 2023 GE and spring 2024. If the choice is between looking foolish and opposition the Tories will choose foolish. That choice will still lead them into opposition, but will delay it.
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government. KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters. Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely. If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
I actually think Shagger would be the best candidate for the party. He probably can't save them, I'm not sure anyone can, and he's likely to damage them further but with him the mandate stuff pretty much goes away and so too the pressure for an early General Election.
In my view, Boris is the difference between a spring 2023 GE and spring 2024. If the choice is between looking foolish and opposition the Tories will choose foolish. That choice will still lead them into opposition, but will delay it.
Elect Bozo and I'm not 100% sure what Rishi nor Hunt would do - I can't see either of them working with him.
Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
And? Remember Wednesday was a VoNC in the Government but beyond removing the PM it's had none of the normal consequences because a lot of sane MPs abstained and you can't remove both previous PMs.
I really don't see much wrong with Bozo taking a few weeks off when his appearance doesn't actually matter with the Government having a majority of 70.
Doesn’t say a lot for his political antennae that he’s in the Caribbean when his successor is evidently in serious trouble.
Only two thirds of 2019 Tory voters “certain to vote”. That’s a lot of stay-at-homes that a new leader might coax back.
I can’t wait to see the reaction on Boris backing MPs faces when the return of the messiah makes things worse. Not that I think any of them actually care about the country anymore
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,
I don't know that they have a track record in political polling that we can judge them against, but then Angus Reid were considered a top-rate pollster in Canadian politics and they came rather unstuck.
Their Labour share is actually a touch below the current average, so it's only with the Tory share that they are a step away from the crowd.
Angus Reid were regarded as the "gold standard" for about 5 years IIRC.
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
If the various terms for ordure (s**t, s***e, c**p and t***s) were combined into one, that word has the makings of the most prominent word in the cloud.
Interesting - I assumed t***s was cognate with c***s on that cloud.
Ah, you must be right. Another combination that would loom larger if a single ubiquitous term had been used.
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
It will be Rishi
Rishi will select a relatively sensible Cabinet, have relatively sensible policies and in 2024 have a relatively sensible GE campaign with the private target of getting around 200-225 seats as a base to rebuild on after the GE.
DYOR 👍
If they're sensible, it will be. But as we're already seeing from the scramble for column inches by self-serving nonentities, let alone their lazy criminal ex-leader's cronies, this group is not sensible. They're deranged (or a least a huge chunk of them are), and they don't give a flying fuck about the country they're supposed to be governing.
Good morning, Punters, and a big congratulations to TSE whose bet on a sub-15% poll for the Tories has come in.
This must be one of the smartest bets ever struck on PB - bold, decisive, and correct. The man himself will be along later I expect, but may be too modest to mention it, so make sure you give him a round of applause as he enters.
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government. KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters. Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely. If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.
I agree.
But it is still worth a cheeky fiver on Starmer as next PM at 140/1.
If another Tory MPs says that Boris Johnson is a rogue but a winner, it will be “the moment that Tonstant Weader Fwowed up” (with apologies to Dorothy Parker reviewing The House at Pooh Corner in 1928)
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
I actually think Shagger would be the best candidate for the party. He probably can't save them, I'm not sure anyone can, and he's likely to damage them further but with him the mandate stuff pretty much goes away and so too the pressure for an early General Election.
In my view, Boris is the difference between a spring 2023 GE and spring 2024. If the choice is between looking foolish and opposition the Tories will choose foolish. That choice will still lead them into opposition, but will delay it.
I agree with the final 2 sentences but not the rest.
The mandate stuff would not go away. Labour were already ahead in the polls and calling for a GE due to Borisian scandals, they wouldn't stop because he was back.
The mandate talk is always either pretext or something additional, not requirement for calls for a GE.
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
It will be Rishi
Rishi will select a relatively sensible Cabinet, have relatively sensible policies and in 2024 have a relatively sensible GE campaign with the private target of getting around 200-225 seats as a base to rebuild on after the GE.
DYOR 👍
He won't last that long. The party will be trying to kill him at every turn.
Tories have just changed the rulebook by the looks of it.
Only the proposer and seconder is going to be formally identified - the other 98 are going to be anonymous.
I suspect that adds to Bozo's chances.
This actually makes sense, too.
Members of the current government (especially whips, chair and vice chairs of party and 1922 ctte members) often don't declare publicly for reasons of party unity.
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,
Shoot the messenger. It never helps.
That wasn't what I was doing. 14% would be a Canada 1993 result for the Tories.
A Canada scenario is the least of the Tories’ worries. They recovered very well from the 2 seat nadir.
The scenario that really ought to worry you is a Liberal Party fate.
No they didn't, the Progressive Conservatives no longer exist. Today's Conservative Party of Canada is a product of the merger of the PCs and populist right Canadian Alliance in 2003.
The Liberals were overtaken by Labour as the main non Tory Party on voteshare and seats, even on that PeoplePolling poll the Tories are still the main non Labour Party on voteshare.
Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
And? Remember Wednesday was a VoNC in the Government but beyond removing the PM it's had none of the normal consequences because a lot of sane MPs abstained and you can't remove both previous PMs.
I really don't see much wrong with Bozo taking a few weeks off when his appearance doesn't actually matter with the Government having a majority of 70.
Doesn’t say a lot for his political antennae that he’s in the Caribbean when his successor is evidently in serious trouble.
Nah, shows he was not involved at all, nossir. He was at dentist appointment on holiday I believe.
What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1
How does that work? How do you get from Truss, to Boris calling an election, to Starmer, without settling on Boris? Is there a PM on 1st January market?
Boris wins the leadership election but can't command a majority of MPs in the House as 50-60 split. Starmer is then more likely to command one that he is and so the King calls for him and he's next PM.
If the various terms for ordure (s**t, s***e, c**p and t***s) were combined into one, that word has the makings of the most prominent word in the cloud.
Interesting - I assumed t***s was cognate with c***s on that cloud.
Ah, you must be right. Another combination that would loom larger if a single ubiquitous term had been used.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
Braverman "was resigned" by a PM who wanted her to go.
BoZo will never go if he is PM
"Bozo will never go if he is PM".
What options are available to Johnson for him to continue past a January 6th style event should the polls not go his way, or better still to avoid polling at all?
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.
Rishi is coronated.
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.
Yes, I think a 2022 GE is good value provided that The timetable allows. From a bit of cursory research (DYOR) the time from dissolution to GE is 25 working days which if done by end October/early November would make a December GE just about possible.
Why not just post me your money or flush it down the toilet instead?
If Johnson wins and the government loses its majority, is it such a wild chance?
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,
I don't know that they have a track record in political polling that we can judge them against, but then Angus Reid were considered a top-rate pollster in Canadian politics and they came rather unstuck.
Their Labour share is actually a touch below the current average, so it's only with the Tory share that they are a step away from the crowd.
Angus Reid were regarded as the "gold standard" for about 5 years IIRC.
They broke OGH's golden rule that the most accurate pollster was the one that gave the worst scores for Labour. Since then all such nostroms about polling have been discarded at an accelerating rate.
Tories have just changed the rulebook by the looks of it.
Only the proposer and seconder is going to be formally identified - the other 98 are going to be anonymous.
I suspect that adds to Bozo's chances.
This actually makes sense, too.
Members of the current government (especially whips, chair and vice chairs of party and 1922 ctte members) often don't declare publicly for reasons of party unity.
That would explain Guido's count.
But, of course, it works for other candidates too.
If another Tory MPs says that Boris Johnson is a rogue but a winner, it will be “the moment that Tonstant Weader Fwowed up” (with apologies to Dorothy Parker reviewing The House at Pooh Corner in 1928)
What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1
"But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election"
This happens before he becomes PM?
How do the mechanics on that work? The party splits?
Typo on my part, Boris Johnson as leader leads to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
Resignations and defections lead to the Tory majority in the Commons being wiped out, add in the potential 8 by elections from the Boris Johnson's resignation honours list....
Surely if Bozo is back in No 10 that resignation list is complete irrelevant.
Does Liz get a resignation list as that will be fun.
Make Johnson a Lord, on the basis he's as drunk as one. And at the same time, makes him ineligible to be Party Leader. Job's a good 'un.
What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1
How does that work? How do you get from Truss, to Boris calling an election, to Starmer, without settling on Boris? Is there a PM on 1st January market?
Boris wins the leadership election but can't command a majority of MPs in the House as 50-60 split. Starmer is then more likely to command one that he is and so the King calls for him and he's next PM.
All in the next 2 weeks.
Surely Johnson would be appointed PM, be tested in the House and only then lose the job. PM for a day. And he'd call a general election not say send for Keith.
Suppose Tim M is anywhere close to correct that Boris will get 100+ nominations. (He says 140 apparently).
Boris therefore comes in the top 2. Obviously if he comes second he will take it to the party members and probably win.
If there really is a serious number of current MPs who would not stay in the party under Boris (30-40?) then they could if willing bring down a Boris government by joining everyone else in a VONC and cause a GE.
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
West Indies disintegrating more imposingly than a Truss government.
I bet Michael Holding isn't the only one talking sadly about the good ol' days...
Test cricket I know, but its not that long ago that the WI were humiliating England. This calendar year. Astonishing to think we won 6 out of 7 tests since then.
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
I don't think he'd forgo a chance to be PM, but I don't expect him to remain as an MP for the full length of the next Parliament.
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
Much the same way Labour and the SNP did, I imagine.
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government. KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters. Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely. If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.
It would happen during the members vote phase so KCIII knew before it was final.
I agree it's very unlikely but it's probably a 3-5% chance - not a 0.5% chance - so I'm interested in Starmer above 50/1.
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
My worry is that a large proportion of the conservatives now follow that sort of view by default.
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
Weirdly the most recent guido post is actually more cautious on both Boris running and the desirability of that, despite the nomination ramping.
Good morning
I really do not think Johnson is going to put himself forward unless he is confident he can get into the last two and win
He really does not do humiliation which it would be if he failed
My feeling is the same - as also with Trump - its as much about missing being the centre of attention as any genuine intention to return to the heavy lifting.
The smart money is probably on laying Johnson - I've had a little dabble but am made nervous by having been stung the last time I laid him
If another Tory MPs says that Boris Johnson is a rogue but a winner, it will be “the moment that Tonstant Weader Fwowed up” (with apologies to Dorothy Parker reviewing The House at Pooh Corner in 1928)
We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
But then Stuart it's all relative.
My favourite, Jess Phillips has disappointed on every outing over the last month, but even then she is not at Truss, Kwarteng, Braverman, JRM, Badenoch ( I could go on, and on) levels of shite.
How are people like Christopher Chope allowed to become an MP - let alone be knighted
If memory serves, he was a former leader of Wandsworth Council where he consistently set the lowest rates in the country and therefore became a poster boy for Thatcherism. He was nicknamed 'Chopper' Chope by the residents for his cuts to local services but oversaw a huge influx of middle-class Londoners which turned Battersea from a safe Labour seat to a moderately safe Tory seat. A favourite Tory trick was to film a PPB along the boundary between Lambeth and Wandsworth contrasting the two.
So basically, he knew the right people and pushed the right buttons. A bit like Corbyn.
Suppose Tim M is anywhere close to correct that Boris will get 100+ nominations. (He says 140 apparently).
Boris therefore comes in the top 2. Obviously if he comes second he will take it to the party members and probably win.
If there really is a serious number of current MPs who would not stay in the party under Boris (30-40?) then they could if willing bring down a Boris government by joining everyone else in a VONC and cause a GE.
Is that a possibility, and what are the chances?
In a sane world, the prospect of the election of Boris Johnson initiating an early general election, in combination with the polls, would frighten Tory MPs sufficiently to prevent him getting 100 nominations.
I've tried to model some tactical voting in Scotland and whichever way I do it the LDs still lose all their seats under the polls conducted in Scotland. I've got two main scenarios - "fuck independence" and "fuck the Tories". Can weight the relative strength of each.
The SNP do very well out of FPTP. My only insight is that Scotland is SNP except for the inner cities which just about start swinging to Labour again.
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
In safe seats, MPs are chosen by party members.
And, bless 'em, we've got recent evidence of the quality of their political judgement.
Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
And that's the best argument for him not running now.
Jesus wept but there could be another contest to come next year. This parliament still has 2 years and 3 months to run.
Yes. It looks bad for the Tories on 14% now, but there really are ways it could still get worse. It's hard to see the party uniting around any new leader. The economic and government finances situation is really bad. They could fall to third in the polls and still resist an election, and public opinion could really harden against them.
It's been less than a year since the Owen Paterson vote. Imagine the last year repeated twice over.
I've always argued that it's better to be in government than opposition, that there's never a good election to lose. But I wonder whether the Tories are now so ungovernable that they would be better off getting into opposition as soon as possible rather than destroying their relationship with the voters with another disastrous couple of years in government.
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government. KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters. Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely. If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.
Starmer isn't going to be PM before an election IMO.
Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
I actually think Shagger would be the best candidate for the party. He probably can't save them, I'm not sure anyone can, and he's likely to damage them further but with him the mandate stuff pretty much goes away and so too the pressure for an early General Election.
In my view, Boris is the difference between a spring 2023 GE and spring 2024. If the choice is between looking foolish and opposition the Tories will choose foolish. That choice will still lead them into opposition, but will delay it.
Elect Bozo and I'm not 100% sure what Rishi nor Hunt would do - I can't see either of them working with him.
Hunt didnt in 2019, albeit because he wanted a bigger role than offered I'd bet. If he were now he'd presumably demand a free hand in the economy, but he could not trust Boris's word to do so.
We are seeing and hearing a lot more from the Labour frontbenchers these days. Jeepers creepers they’re shite.
But then Stuart it's all relative.
My favourite, Jess Phillips has disappointed on every outing over the last month, but even then she is not at Truss, Kwarteng, Braverman, JRM, Badenoch ( I could go on, and on) levels of shite.
Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
I think @HYUFD is right, if Boris became leader there would be a bounce, but only because they have dropped so unimaginably low. And then there will be the chaos that will follow day after day with Boris as PM. There is a high probability he will be suspended and subject to a by election, Tory MPs are likely to rebel in huge numbers, etc. It will be chaos. And all this starts and ends with Boris and the nutters that worship him.
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government. KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters. Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely. If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.
Starmer isn't going to be PM before an election IMO.
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.
You've never heard of safe seats? Both main parties (and the SNP in Scotland, in recent times) have duffers safe from any consequence.
Possible scenario: Boris takes over, the Tories go below 10% in the polls, another contest within 3 months.
And that's the best argument for him not running now.
Jesus wept but there could be another contest to come next year. This parliament still has 2 years and 3 months to run.
The other alternative is that enough MPs pledge to leave the party (cross the floor or more likely sit as independents) such that Boris would immediately become PM of a minority Government and risk humiliation in an immediate general election. Hero to zero to hero to zero who broke up the Party - just stay out and keep taking the speaking engagement money, Boris.
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
I had an idea this morning for balancing MP and member votes: approval voting. First MPs vote for as many candidates as they like. Then members get to vote on all the candidates who got a vote from at least two thirds of the MPs. That way members have a say but can't impose a leader who doesn't have a clear majority of MPs able to accept them as a reasonable choice.
Listening to Christopher Chope on Sky you really do wonder how on earth the conservative party have managed to find so many out of touch and idiotic mps
He must be in touch with the voters of Christchurch to get elected 7 times in a row.
I've tried to model some tactical voting in Scotland and whichever way I do it the LDs still lose all their seats under the polls conducted in Scotland. I've got two main scenarios - "fuck independence" and "fuck the Tories". Can weight the relative strength of each.
The SNP do very well out of FPTP. My only insight is that Scotland is SNP except for the inner cities which just about start swinging to Labour again.
Quite ironic really given they've been consistgently in favour of electoral reform - but if the Tories and Labour will insist on FPTP ...
Comments
Does Liz get a resignation list as that will be fun.
Their Labour share is actually a touch below the current average, so it's only with the Tory share that they are a step away from the crowd.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1583340271651024896
Lots of leaves blowing about yesterday though!
And good morning one and all!
Rishi will select a relatively sensible Cabinet, have relatively sensible policies and in 2024 have a relatively sensible GE campaign with the private target of getting around 200-225 seats as a base to rebuild on after the GE.
DYOR 👍
Though self-interest will of course override patriotism.
https://www.conservatives.com/organisation/party-structure-and-organisation
I really don't see much wrong with Bozo taking a few weeks off when his appearance doesn't actually matter with the Government having a majority of 70.
https://twitter.com/elliottengage/status/1583356910522470401
In my view, Boris is the difference between a spring 2023 GE and spring 2024. If the choice is between looking foolish and opposition the Tories will choose foolish. That choice will still lead them into opposition, but will delay it.
If Johnson wins then Truss will advise King Charles when she formally (i.e. for betting purposes & de jure) resigns that Johnson can form a government.
KCIII asks Johnson to form a Gov't in his name, then 40-75 Tory MPs resign, cross the floor, head to the Lords, abstain, vote against or whatever in a vote of confidence that Starmer immediately tables to test the waters.
Johnson then heads back to the palace, says he doesn't believe anyone can command the confidence of the commons and we have a GE.
tldr I think a quick GE is far more likely than Starmer next PM. Starmer next PM requires a whole load of Conservative MPs to cross the floor immediately when/if Johnson wins and before he sets off for the palace. That's a window of a few minutes to the weekend and very unlikely.
If Johnson wins he will reasonably (And so will KCIII) that he commands the confidence of the commons.
For Tory foes his return is the dream scenario of eliminating them as a party of government or opposition.
There must be a temptation for him to say: you know, we’re going to lose next time anyway, I’d have max two years of dealing with a fucked economy while Johnson and the ERG grouse from the backbenches, maybe I should just get that finance job now and spend some more time in my beachfront California house.
I don’t think it’s necessarily likely, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out.
This must be one of the smartest bets ever struck on PB - bold, decisive, and correct. The man himself will be along later I expect, but may be too modest to mention it, so make sure you give him a round of applause as he enters.
But it is still worth a cheeky fiver on Starmer as next PM at 140/1.
https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1583361773674954752
As Tim, late of this parish, observed, Johnson has only ever won against antisemitic pensioners….
The mandate stuff would not go away. Labour were already ahead in the polls and calling for a GE due to Borisian scandals, they wouldn't stop because he was back.
The mandate talk is always either pretext or something additional, not requirement for calls for a GE.
I really do not think Johnson is going to put himself forward unless he is confident he can get into the last two and win
He really does not do humiliation which it would be if he failed
Members of the current government (especially whips, chair and vice chairs of party and 1922 ctte members) often don't declare publicly for reasons of party unity.
The Liberals were overtaken by Labour as the main non Tory Party on voteshare and seats, even on that PeoplePolling poll the Tories are still the main non Labour Party on voteshare.
It should also be noted the Peston poll yesterday had 30% of voters preferring Boris as PM to Starmer and 27% preferring Sunak as PM to Starmer. Se either becoming Tory leader should give at least a 10 to 15% bounce for the Tories
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1583136338169036807?s=20&t=K2Qzk9HgrZqqTswmeVmb0g
All in the next 2 weeks.
What options are available to Johnson for him to continue past a January 6th style event should the polls not go his way, or better still to avoid polling at all?
But, of course, it works for other candidates too.
Chair Sir Jake Berry
VCs
Sara Britcliffe (Youth)
Saqib Bhatti (Business)
Alexander Stafford (Policy)
Boris therefore comes in the top 2. Obviously if he comes second he will take it to the party members and probably win.
If there really is a serious number of current MPs who would not stay in the party under Boris (30-40?) then they could if willing bring down a Boris government by joining everyone else in a VONC and cause a GE.
Is that a possibility, and what are the chances?
Jesus wept but there could be another contest to come next year. This parliament still has 2 years and 3 months to run.
I agree it's very unlikely but it's probably a 3-5% chance - not a 0.5% chance - so I'm interested in Starmer above 50/1.
In the betting markets.
The smart money is probably on laying Johnson - I've had a little dabble but am made nervous by having been stung the last time I laid him
Maybe they'd prefer that rather than reality.
My favourite, Jess Phillips has disappointed on every outing over the last month, but even then she is not at Truss, Kwarteng, Braverman, JRM, Badenoch ( I could go on, and on) levels of shite.
So basically, he knew the right people and pushed the right buttons. A bit like Corbyn.
In a sane world.
@brianmoore666
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17h
How do you think Nadine Dorries is feeling about the possibility of Johnson's Second Coming?
The SNP do very well out of FPTP. My only insight is that Scotland is SNP except for the inner cities which just about start swinging to Labour again.
Downing of a cruise missile over Zaporozhia.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1583364805464686592
https://twitter.com/lornamhughes/status/1583082019508346881?s=46&t=sLIoGP5rqkjG-0o5cYbF1g
And, bless 'em, we've got recent evidence of the quality of their political judgement.
It's been less than a year since the Owen Paterson vote. Imagine the last year repeated twice over.
I've always argued that it's better to be in government than opposition, that there's never a good election to lose. But I wonder whether the Tories are now so ungovernable that they would be better off getting into opposition as soon as possible rather than destroying their relationship with the voters with another disastrous couple of years in government.