That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
I don't think it's fun, Felix.
I want sensible government, so I want Sunak. If I wanted the termination of the Tory Party I would want Johnson. There would be a small element of Schadenfreude, it's true, but it wouldn't compensate for the chaos and the pain.
Yes I'm sorry. The majority of posters clearly have similar views and it's only the minority unable to move on from kicking the corpse!
That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun
In one sense it is but in lots of ways it really isn't.
As a spectacle, yes.
As a wrecking of this country, it's really not. Real lives have been, and are, damaged by this. A lot of it inflicted by the Party rather than external events.
Totally agree. I'm splitting my sides laughing, but...
Whoever has to pick up the pieces (presumably Starmer and Labour) is stuffed. There is no chance of making the investments the country needs. There is massive demand for improvements in services across the board and all the money has been spent. The longer this face goes on, the worse it gets. A new Labour government will be just as unpopular within a year.
The reality is that we have been living beyond our means. Cuts have to happen. It is just a case of where they fall. Labour having to deliver cuts is not something they have had to do for 50 years. Labour MPs have no experience of it and their entire political careers have been spent arguing for more public spending. It will destroy them having to do it.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
The least-worst outcome is a technocratic government run by Sunak and Hunt. The Italian solution to political turmoil.
Which is why it wont happen...redwall voters love Boris
Redwall voters love freebies - now Bozo has stopped offering them they don’t like him as much.
That was true in July this year it’s going to be even more accurate now
The Tories haven't managed a poll share of 30% or above since the end of September. What do we reckon are the chances that they'll sneak one in before the end of October?
Boris adds 10%, Sunak a bit less but more than 5%, which puts them somewhere mid to high twenties and guess we get half a dozen polls over that weekend, so 5/2 might be about right perhaps?
That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun
In one sense it is but in lots of ways it really isn't.
As a spectacle, yes.
As a wrecking of this country, it's really not. Real lives have been, and are, damaged by this. A lot of it inflicted by the Party rather than external events.
Totally agree. I'm splitting my sides laughing, but...
Whoever has to pick up the pieces (presumably Starmer and Labour) is stuffed. There is no chance of making the investments the country needs. There is massive demand for improvements in services across the board and all the money has been spent. The longer this face goes on, the worse it gets. A new Labour government will be just as unpopular within a year.
The reality is that we have been living beyond our means. Cuts have to happen. It is just a case of where they fall. Labour having to deliver cuts is not something they have had to do for 50 years. Labour MPs have no experience of it and their entire political careers have been spent arguing for more public spending. It will destroy them having to do it.
Or they bit the bullet and move quickly to raise more revenue from the off. Some sort of wealth tax, merge tax and NI, revise the triple lock - all potentially big ticket items
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Dont think Boris ever realky wanted to lockdown to be honest
I think the fact that he was in charge and did institute a lockdown kinda suggests he did really want to do it.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
I'm not a Tory (I have voted Tory a few times in the past and may well have gone for Cameron in 2015 if it hadn't been for the referendum promise, but I've voted not-Tory a lot more than Tory). But this isn't fun for anyone who cares about the country. I want the Tories to choose a sane leader (Sunak or Mordaunt) and steady things a bit, then go to the country next year or possibly the year after. While I'd have no particular problem with Tory extinction in a short term GE, I wouldn't really want a Labour government with a huge majority as I think the loons that would get elected for Labour (in theoretically unwinnable seats) would also cause plenty of trouble and instability. My favoured next government would be a smallish Lab majority or a Lib-Lab coalition. We need 2 (or 3) strong parties that could be governments in waiting; we haven't had that since 2015, imo.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
It's hard to do such a comparison. The population now is higher, so you'd expect more deaths in absolute numbers with a disease that was no more dangerous. However, healthcare is better, so you'd expect fewer deaths, all other things being equal.
I think the biggest difference is that there are more potential treatments available for very sick patients than there were, and so when the health system gets overwhelmed it has a large impact on the death rate because not everyone can be treated.
Back in the 60s, because there was less that could be done, it meant it was easier to provide what treatment was possible.
Life expectancy in the 60s was around 71; it's about a decade longer today.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Indeed - giving a straight answer to a crooked question.....
Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
The fantasist/optimist/sunny uplands vs realist/pragmatist/managed decline is the real split in the Tory party, not left vs right or remain vs leave.
And it cannot be reconciled as we will never reach the sunny uplands, but it sounds a lot more fun than managed decline.
I don’t think managed decline is a fair assessment of what the country can realistically achieve tbh. We can build an enterprising and dynamic economy and we can build upon and demonstrate excellence in a number of growth sectors like tech and renewables, if we put our mind to it and the government support is there. There is also significant untapped growth potential in the regions with the right, targeted investment.
What we have learned is that the Trussian dream of a low-tax low-regulation powerhouse economy isn’t deliverable in the short to medium term (nor desirable for many people).
Government has to be there to help facilitate the country’s success and adaptation. For all his faults Boris understood this somewhat, he was just too lazy and if we’re going to honest many in his party didn’t have the will to really implement it.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
Great. So we concur that comebackkid was talking nonsense.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Dont think Boris ever realky wanted to lockdown to be honest
I think the fact that he was in charge and did institute a lockdown kinda suggests he did really want to do it.
Come now. Everyone knows the evil scientists were calling the shots. Poor Johnson was helpless
Okay so we all know the latest poll is unlikely to materialise in an actual General Election, although the way the Conservative Party are behaving I wouldn't rule anything out. And unlike some people I do not see them healing and uniting around one leader anytime soon. Quite the opposite. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see a break-away from the Right.
It's still quite amusing to plug the raw figures into electoral calculus. Doubly amusing that this poll was for GB News. Have a look at the predicted number of Conservative seats
Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
The Arse Over The Carpet - about to void all over the place again should the Tories be so gone in mind body & soul as to bring him back.
This is what Beth Rigby says
Johnson be back in No 10? Interesting chat with Cab min who thinks BJ cld hit 100 threshold, & if he does thinks he’s back. “I’d expect him to get to 100. Even MPs who resigned from his govt were on terrace y’day telling colleagues they’d now back him & members definitely will”
Good people of Hampstead brace yourselves...the clown is back
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
Great. So we concur that comebackkid was talking nonsense.
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun
In one sense it is but in lots of ways it really isn't.
As a spectacle, yes.
As a wrecking of this country, it's really not. Real lives have been, and are, damaged by this. A lot of it inflicted by the Party rather than external events.
Totally agree. I'm splitting my sides laughing, but...
Whoever has to pick up the pieces (presumably Starmer and Labour) is stuffed. There is no chance of making the investments the country needs. There is massive demand for improvements in services across the board and all the money has been spent. The longer this face goes on, the worse it gets. A new Labour government will be just as unpopular within a year.
The reality is that we have been living beyond our means. Cuts have to happen. It is just a case of where they fall. Labour having to deliver cuts is not something they have had to do for 50 years. Labour MPs have no experience of it and their entire political careers have been spent arguing for more public spending. It will destroy them having to do it.
Or they bit the bullet and move quickly to raise more revenue from the off. Some sort of wealth tax, merge tax and NI, revise the triple lock - all potentially big ticket items
Labour have also been demanding the triple lock on pensions is maintained. Wealth tax likely to have the opposite effect. I support merging Tax/NI but will it really bring in much more money? We are in the sort of situation where normally the "mean" Tories would come in and sort out the public finances by cutting. Instead in this instance the positions are reversed. Does anyone honestly see Labour as being able to manage it?
That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
I don't think it's fun, Felix.
I want sensible government, so I want Sunak. If I wanted the termination of the Tory Party I would want Johnson. There would be a small element of Schadenfreude, it's true, but it wouldn't compensate for the chaos and the pain.
Yes I'm sorry. The majority of posters clearly have similar views and it's only the minority unable to move on from kicking the corpse!
You are a 1945 Berliner complaining about how disrespectful it is to sing songs about how the longstanding elected leader of a major European nation has only got one ball.
The fantasist/optimist/sunny uplands vs realist/pragmatist/managed decline is the real split in the Tory party, not left vs right or remain vs leave.
And it cannot be reconciled as we will never reach the sunny uplands, but it sounds a lot more fun than managed decline.
I don’t think managed decline is a fair assessment of what the country can realistically achieve tbh. We can build an enterprising and dynamic economy and we can build upon and demonstrate excellence in a number of growth sectors like tech and renewables, if we put our mind to it and the government support is there. There is also significant untapped growth potential in the regions with the right, targeted investment.
What we have learned is that the Trussian dream of a low-tax low-regulation powerhouse economy isn’t deliverable in the short to medium term (nor desirable for many people).
Government has to be there to help facilitate the country’s success and adaptation. For all his faults Boris understood this somewhat, he was just too lazy and if we’re going to honest many in his party didn’t have the will to really implement it.
I wasn't trying to give entirely fair labels but to describe the chasm between them. The fantasists probably dont all see themselves as that either, although some of them know exactly what they are peddling.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
Great. So we concur that comebackkid was talking nonsense.
Absolutely.
Next he will start talking about reporting days....
{Wipes cobwebs from the baseball bat with the nails in it}
Is that Bakhmut comment supposed to be a misplaced attempt at trolling given they’ve still not taken it? Or a genuine question.
Fairly certain it is trolling. They have been sending all their best troops (Wagner group) against Bakhmut for months and made pretty much no progress.
There’s a view that Wagner aren’t really trying that hard to take it. Prigozhin is throwing a bunch of the convict recruits into the grinder so it looks like they are doing something (look we’re the only ones on the offensive!), while in reality trying to save their better troops from the main front lines where the standard divisions are being wiped out.
The echelon is basically zeks - DPR/LPR milita - mobiks - regular Russian forces. The first two are just to make the UAF use up ammo
The Musicians do their own thing outside the normal chain of command. Kadyrovtsy just seem to post on TikTok/ Telegram brassing up empty buildings well behind the FEBA.
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
The fantasist/optimist/sunny uplands vs realist/pragmatist/managed decline is the real split in the Tory party, not left vs right or remain vs leave.
And it cannot be reconciled as we will never reach the sunny uplands, but it sounds a lot more fun than managed decline.
Brexit opened the door to populism and it is proving very difficult to close it. Populism is a bigger threat to the country's future than Brexit is, but I'm not sure you can get rid of one without the other.
The Economist's editorial that Britain is now Italy has a point. After Berlusconi, voters have tried one populist after another, and after each one fails they cast about for someone even more reckless. Meanwhile sensible Italians have either given up on politics altogether, or simply look on in despair, unable to understand or influence the voting habits of the majority.
Was Renzi a populist? The last PM before Maloni was the technocrat Draghi
The fantasist/optimist/sunny uplands vs realist/pragmatist/managed decline is the real split in the Tory party, not left vs right or remain vs leave.
And it cannot be reconciled as we will never reach the sunny uplands, but it sounds a lot more fun than managed decline.
I don’t think managed decline is a fair assessment of what the country can realistically achieve tbh. We can build an enterprising and dynamic economy and we can build upon and demonstrate excellence in a number of growth sectors like tech and renewables, if we put our mind to it and the government support is there. There is also significant untapped growth potential in the regions with the right, targeted investment.
What we have learned is that the Trussian dream of a low-tax low-regulation powerhouse economy isn’t deliverable in the short to medium term (nor desirable for many people).
Government has to be there to help facilitate the country’s success and adaptation. For all his faults Boris understood this somewhat, he was just too lazy and if we’re going to honest many in his party didn’t have the will to really implement it.
Part of the problem is the belief that the UK doesn't make anything or do anything. Because industry can only consist of scantily clad men* in steelworks.
That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
It's not great fun. But it's those Tories who want to bring back Boris who are guilty of not looking for serious solutions, isn't it? Following on from the Truss/Kwarteng non-serious mini-budget, of course.
If the Tories coalesce quickly around a sensible leadership team, then fair enough. Otherwise, Labour are going to be looking like the only grown-ups.
That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun but surely there can now be an element on all sides of looking for serious solutions. The endless point scoring is preferebale to the ravings of our friend HYUFD - buit only just.
It's not great fun. But it's those Tories who want to bring back Boris who are guilty of not looking for serious solutions, isn't it? Following on from the Truss/Kwarteng non-serious mini-budget, of course.
If the Tories coalesce quickly around a sensible leadership team, then fair enough. Otherwise, Labour are going to be looking like the only grown-ups.
Labour are going to be looking like the only grown-ups
Spare a thought for the Economist leader-writer who came up with the "shelf-life of a lettuce" line that has overwhelmingly shaped the world's perception of Britain's political crisis, and has to sit there unable to take credit.
Once the weekend soundings are taken Johnson surges
Amongst party members rather than constituents I assume. And if MPs care about holding their seats they would be listening to the latter. If they are only listening to 200 local members and not the 80,000 electorate they represent they deserve to be wiped out.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
Same order of magnitude anyway
The impact of Hong Kong flu, and other past pandemics, just shows we should have known we needed to be better prepared for when COVID-19 came along. We knew these things could happen, but we were caught off-guard.
We had a pandemic plan, and the first thing we did when a pandemic hit was to panic and bin it.
It was for flu. It relied on both our anti-flu drugs being effective and the reproductive rate of the disease being lower.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
Is that Bakhmut comment supposed to be a misplaced attempt at trolling given they’ve still not taken it? Or a genuine question.
Fairly certain it is trolling. They have been sending all their best troops (Wagner group) against Bakhmut for months and made pretty much no progress.
There’s a view that Wagner aren’t really trying that hard to take it. Prigozhin is throwing a bunch of the convict recruits into the grinder so it looks like they are doing something (look we’re the only ones on the offensive!), while in reality trying to save their better troops from the main front lines...
Or rather for the post war power struggle. Ditto the murderous Chechen twat.
If Johnson does win I suspect the Tories might split, but I don't think anyone will cross the floor. I would expect something like an Independent Conservative bloc which will normally go with the government but probably not on questions of 'confidence'.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Dont think Boris ever realky wanted to lockdown to be honest
This is plainly obvious given his inaction in September 2020 and December 2020
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
Same order of magnitude anyway
The impact of Hong Kong flu, and other past pandemics, just shows we should have known we needed to be better prepared for when COVID-19 came along. We knew these things could happen, but we were caught off-guard.
Just remind me, which Health Secretary cut back on such preparations.
Ture, although we were not alone in this. Hence the huge scramble for PPE, and our 'best friends' confiscating PPE supplies.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
Same order of magnitude anyway
The impact of Hong Kong flu, and other past pandemics, just shows we should have known we needed to be better prepared for when COVID-19 came along. We knew these things could happen, but we were caught off-guard.
We had a pandemic plan, and the first thing we did when a pandemic hit was to panic and bin it.
It was for flu. It relied on both our anti-flu drugs being effective and the reproductive rate of the disease being lower.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
Same order of magnitude anyway
The impact of Hong Kong flu, and other past pandemics, just shows we should have known we needed to be better prepared for when COVID-19 came along. We knew these things could happen, but we were caught off-guard.
We had a pandemic plan, and the first thing we did when a pandemic hit was to panic and bin it.
It was for flu. It relied on both our anti-flu drugs being effective and the reproductive rate of the disease being lower.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Dont think Boris ever really wanted to lockdown to be honest
It seems unlikely he doesn't get to 100 doesn't it? The Tory party has a problem though if Rishi wins the final indicative vote by a really big margin.
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
It's difficult to count deaths from a specific cause, lots of fiddly issues to consider. But we know that number is close enough: the rest is quibbling bordering on conspiracy theory.
In the Western world, yes. In Russia, they bullshitted with the COVID deaths from day one. The Chinese numbers defy statistics as well.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Dont think Boris ever realky wanted to lockdown to be honest
This is plainly obvious given his inaction in September 2020 and December 2020
Hmm, not sure that follows. By September 2020 it was clear to anyone paying attention that lockdown wasn't worth the costs, but that wasn't the case in March 2020. In any case, in March 2020 the media hysteria gave whoever was in government no choice.
Sure, so deaths are probably worse than what was reported... but comebackkid was trying to suggest the opposite, that deaths have been over-counted, that COVID-19 wasn't really a problem.
Excess deaths during the pandemic are something like 22 million now. Lots of countries undercounted.
Great. So we concur that comebackkid was talking nonsense.
Absolutely.
Next he will start talking about reporting days....
{Wipes cobwebs from the baseball bat with the nails in it}
One interesting thing is that the countries with high excesses were the countries where desperate scenes were seen in the media. Countries like Peru, Brazil, Russia, India, and even to a lesser extent countries like Italy. A country might not record a pandemic properly but it is hard to hide. If it looks like healthcare in a country is being overwhelmed by a disease it probably is.
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Not under FPTP, with PR maybe
I think you are almost certainly correct, but we are in new territory. My view is the Tory vote won't be this low (but I could be wrong) and also even if they do get wiped out they will have the organisation and money to recover (but again I could be wrong).
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
It seems unlikely he doesn't get to 100 doesn't it? The Tory party has a problem though if Rishi wins the final indicative vote by a really big margin.
There is an argument, potentially, that the membership could go for Rishi over Boris if the gap is so monumental and MPs come out and confirm they won’t support a BoZo government.
I am not saying it is the most likely result, but staring down the barrel there is at least a chance they may feel something of an obligation to choose Rishi.
I guess it depends on your confidence in the Tory Party membership to vote in the interests of the wider party and the country. My confidence level is low. But they could surprise me.
For the past five years, the EU Commission has been working to reform the treaty. Completed in June this year, the Commission hailed the modernisation agreement as a success, claiming that it has "fulfilled its mandate" and "brought the ECT into line with the Paris Agreement and [the EU's] environmental objectives". But many member states see it differently.
"The mandate to the European Commission was to bring the Energy Charter Treaty in line with the Paris Climate Agreement," Dutch Energy Minister Rob Jetten told parliament in The Hague on Tuesday. Despite much progress in the negotiations, Jetten said the agreement was "not sufficiently in line" with the Paris Agreement and he announced the Netherlands would leave the agreement.
JRM was almost right about "Boris or Bust". He actually meant "Boris then Bust".
Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable. https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1583392955796029440
That would be the icing on the cake. Boris gets the job and then has to resign again. I wonder if they could manage to make his tenure less than 44 days?
I can understand how for non-Tories this is all great fun
In one sense it is but in lots of ways it really isn't.
As a spectacle, yes.
As a wrecking of this country, it's really not. Real lives have been, and are, damaged by this. A lot of it inflicted by the Party rather than external events.
Totally agree. I'm splitting my sides laughing, but...
Whoever has to pick up the pieces (presumably Starmer and Labour) is stuffed. There is no chance of making the investments the country needs. There is massive demand for improvements in services across the board and all the money has been spent. The longer this face goes on, the worse it gets. A new Labour government will be just as unpopular within a year.
The reality is that we have been living beyond our means. Cuts have to happen. It is just a case of where they fall. Labour having to deliver cuts is not something they have had to do for 50 years. Labour MPs have no experience of it and their entire political careers have been spent arguing for more public spending. It will destroy them having to do it.
Or they bit the bullet and move quickly to raise more revenue from the off. Some sort of wealth tax, merge tax and NI, revise the triple lock - all potentially big ticket items
There is no alternative to big tax rises. As has been remarked before, anything that can be cut has already been cut to the bone, for the last decade. An incoming Labour government will become wildly unpopular because it will not be able to find enough to plug the gaps. I suspect the current leadership is moderate enough to try to hold the line in the hope that stability will eventually lead to an improving position, but it won't win them any fans.
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Not under FPTP, with PR maybe
I think you are almost certainly correct, but we are in new territory. My view is the Tory vote won't be this low (but I could be wrong) and also even if they do get wiped out they will have the organisation and money to recover (but again I could be wrong).
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
Psephologically it is clearly possible - and would have happened, had for example Truss gone to the country this week as some sort of fightback strategy.
The real question is how the Tories would react to it, and what sort of "new Tories" would emerge.
Rob Ford spot on: "He isn't popular. He never was. He can't govern. He can't unify. Scandal & chaos follows him wherever he goes. And enough Con MPs know all of this to leave him unable to govern from day 1."
This used to be enjoyable but now I’m finding it increasingly anxiety inducing. There are no good outcome for the country in all of this. It’s hard to find anything funny about it anymore.
There hasn't been a good outcome for the country since everyone agreed that Covid meant we needed lockdown, furlough, and borrowing insane amounts of money to pay for it. The chickens were always going to come home to roost.
You mean there hasn't been a good outcome for the country since a devastating pandemic spread around the world and the UK found itself insufficiently prepared.
Hong kong flu in the 60s was as bad...no hysteria or lockdowns
Hong Kong flu killed around 1-4 million. We're not really certain, in part because of the Cultural Revolution in China. China handled the pandemic very poorly, increasing deaths.
COVID-19 is at over 6.5 million and that's with more having been done to combat it. COVID-19 is the more dangerous disease.
The way covid 19 deaths were counted is questionable though
Same order of magnitude anyway
The impact of Hong Kong flu, and other past pandemics, just shows we should have known we needed to be better prepared for when COVID-19 came along. We knew these things could happen, but we were caught off-guard.
We had a pandemic plan, and the first thing we did when a pandemic hit was to panic and bin it.
It was for flu. It relied on both our anti-flu drugs being effective and the reproductive rate of the disease being lower.
It was a terrible plan for Covid.
Shame about the PPE stocks bit of it, though.
A fun thought for the future - the insistence on disposable PPE means
- The next pandemic will put a huge demand on PPE supplies - The collections of bits of plastic that made up PPE are full of gaps. So if the next one is truly airborne....
For welding (and other industrial stuff) incredible advances have ben made in reusable PPE. air filtering to micron levels is standard. The forced air systems* provide an air-conditioning effect, which prevents mask fogging and makes it possible to wear for longer, comfortably.
*A rechargeable filter/airpump which you wear on a belt clip - size of a water bottle.
Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
The Arse Over The Carpet - about to void all over the place again should the Tories be so gone in mind body & soul as to bring him back.
This is what Beth Rigby says
Johnson be back in No 10? Interesting chat with Cab min who thinks BJ cld hit 100 threshold, & if he does thinks he’s back. “I’d expect him to get to 100. Even MPs who resigned from his govt were on terrace y’day telling colleagues they’d now back him & members definitely will”
Good people of Hampstead brace yourselves...the clown is back
The people rejoicing if the clown returns are Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
Voters know Johnson now. The opposition attack ads are going to be easy to produce. He will improve the Tory vote (not difficult at present) but I believe he has a 35% ceiling at best even if he doesn't get caught out lying and fuck-up again. The euphoria of people such as yourself will be short lived.
Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
The Arse Over The Carpet - about to void all over the place again should the Tories be so gone in mind body & soul as to bring him back.
This is what Beth Rigby says
Johnson be back in No 10? Interesting chat with Cab min who thinks BJ cld hit 100 threshold, & if he does thinks he’s back. “I’d expect him to get to 100. Even MPs who resigned from his govt were on terrace y’day telling colleagues they’d now back him & members definitely will”
Good people of Hampstead brace yourselves...the clown is back
The people rejoicing if the clown returns are Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
Voters know Johnson now. The opposition attack ads are going to be easy to produce. He will improve the Tory vote (not difficult at present) but I believe he has a 35% ceiling at best even if he doesn't get caught out lying and fuck-up again. The euphoria of people such as yourself will be short lived.
1997 was 43-30. If he can get 35%, he would lose but avoid a wipeout. Especially if there is a lib dem revival, or a green surge to split the anti-Boris vote.
Chaos and order The son of slim pickings is a Lord Mountbatten or Junio Borghese solution - or attempted solution.
Slim pickings begets an environment in which the general feeling in the political class lies somewhere between
"It's good that X is stepping in. This was no time for standing on niceties, the law, or precedent. Someone had to stop Woke" and
"I'm past caring. Politicians are pathetic. The system was broken. Let's see what happens."
Johnson Johnson doesn't fit that bill. Sorry to his many fans in the Tory membership. He may want to be Julius Caesar but he hasn't got it in him, even if he did play rugger at Eton. He's not even Berlusconi. He's not that kind of killer.
Even in the event that he did return, he still wouldn't fit the bill. "Chaos" would continue while he was at No.10. Quite possibly in his 2nd term he'd last less time than Truss. For all the Boris bikes and Boris building plans, he's not Mitterand. He's a journalist-politician-clown.
Technocratic solution There's no history whatsoever in Britain of technocrats in leading cabinet positions. If a technocrat play does eventuate, it too might not last long.
Media The role of the traditional non-Twitter media - the Mail, and to a lesser extent the Telegraph and BBC - is often taken for granted when the sh*t is hitting the fan, when what's actually happening deserves more attention.
Was the contretemps outside the Commons voting lobbies worse than often happens late in the evening when MPs have had a few drinks and snorted some coke? The point is how it's talked about in the media, why, and what the effects have been.
One rare feature was how a lot of pressure was put on the whips by someone who clearly didn't know what they were doing. I believe the whips were furious. The "someone" is unlikely to have been Truss who for all the "fighter" talk must have known for at least several days that she was on her way down the plughole. Why would she bother? Would anyone have listened to her if she tried?
The role of polling companies is little considered. So x% of sampled Tory members want Johnson, or y% of sampled voters say they'd vote Tory were a GE held tomorrow. So what? There are many ways of choosing, asking, and timing polling questions, and many ways of reporting the results too.
I don't think the Mail is pushing for a Starmer government.
But a lot could happen between the announcement of a GE and the vote.
The king Watch the king. The king is important.
He must be absolutely loving it that politicians are looking as though they couldn't organise a p*ssup in a brewery.
Johnson upset him shortly before he fell, calling him (so sophisticatedly of course) "condescending".
The king may try something but if he does it will f*ck up because he's an idiot.
Farage He may be the only leading British politician who has threatened to take up a rifle in civil war. He could play a bit part in taking some % from the Tories in polls and elections, but he's yesterday's man.
Boris Johnson - the man 50 Tory MPs have so far said they want to be PM again - has spent the last week on holiday in the Caribbean. Parliament has been sitting since October 11 and the next recess isn’t due till next month.
The Arse Over The Carpet - about to void all over the place again should the Tories be so gone in mind body & soul as to bring him back.
This is what Beth Rigby says
Johnson be back in No 10? Interesting chat with Cab min who thinks BJ cld hit 100 threshold, & if he does thinks he’s back. “I’d expect him to get to 100. Even MPs who resigned from his govt were on terrace y’day telling colleagues they’d now back him & members definitely will”
Good people of Hampstead brace yourselves...the clown is back
The people rejoicing if the clown returns are Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
Voters know Johnson now. The opposition attack ads are going to be easy to produce. He will improve the Tory vote (not difficult at present) but I believe he has a 35% ceiling at best even if he doesn't get caught out lying and fuck-up again. The euphoria of people such as yourself will be short lived.
I was going to say, even if you buy that people will forget the previous stuff, seems... unlikely he will be able to go 2 years without creating new scandals.
It seems unlikely he doesn't get to 100 doesn't it? The Tory party has a problem though if Rishi wins the final indicative vote by a really big margin.
There is an argument, potentially, that the membership could go for Rishi over Boris if the gap is so monumental and MPs come out and confirm they won’t support a BoZo government.
I am not saying it is the most likely result, but staring down the barrel there is at least a chance they may feel something of an obligation to choose Rishi.
I guess it depends on your confidence in the Tory Party membership to vote in the interests of the wider party and the country. My confidence level is low. But they could surprise me.
The key could be what Hunt does, and when?
If he came out with a clear statement against Boris - choosing carefully from the range of options from mild concern about the market consequences right up to a promise to resign if Johnson is chosen- it could have a significant effect (with of course some risk of that being the opposite from what he would intend).
Okay so we all know the latest poll is unlikely to materialise in an actual General Election, although the way the Conservative Party are behaving I wouldn't rule anything out. And unlike some people I do not see them healing and uniting around one leader anytime soon. Quite the opposite. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see a break-away from the Right.
It's still quite amusing to plug the raw figures into electoral calculus. Doubly amusing that this poll was for GB News. Have a look at the predicted number of Conservative seats
The Right won't breakaway, because they know they have the support among the members, and the fight is over ownership of the blue rosette to pin on the electoral donkeys. I don't see them meekly supporting a Sunak-Hunt double act though.
Imo its over for the Tory party as is. The only question is how they split - Boris wins and there is a centrist split away under Rishi/Hunt (even though BJ is a centrist economically himself). Rishi/Penny wins and a Farage, Johnson, Spartan vehicle emerges. The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
Not under FPTP, with PR maybe
I think you are almost certainly correct, but we are in new territory. My view is the Tory vote won't be this low (but I could be wrong) and also even if they do get wiped out they will have the organisation and money to recover (but again I could be wrong).
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
The 2 main parties haven't even broken in Scotland, just they are now the 2 main Unionist parties with the SNP taking almost all nationalist votes
Chaos and order The son of slim pickings is a Lord Mountbatten or Junio Borghese solution - or attempted solution.
Slim pickings begets an environment in which the general feeling in the political class lies somewhere between
"It's good that X is stepping in. This was no time for standing on niceties, the law, or precedent. Someone had to stop Woke" and
"I'm past caring. Politicians are pathetic. The system was broken. Let's see what happens."
Johnson Johnson doesn't fit that bill. Sorry to his many fans in the Tory membership. He may want to be Julius Caesar but he hasn't got it in him, even if he did play rugger at Eton. He's not even Berlusconi. He's not that kind of killer.
Even in the event that he did return, he still wouldn't fit the bill. "Chaos" would continue while he was at No.10. Quite possibly in his 2nd term he'd last less time than Truss. For all the Boris bikes and Boris building plans, he's not Mitterand. He's a journalist-politician-clown.
Technocratic solution There's no history whatsoever in Britain of technocrats in leading cabinet positions. If a technocrat play does eventuate, it too might not last long.
Media The role of the traditional non-Twitter media - the Mail, and to a lesser extent the Telegraph and BBC - is often taken for granted when the sh*t is hitting the fan, when what's actually happening deserves more attention.
Was the contretemps outside the Commons voting lobbies worse than often happens late in the evening when MPs have had a few drinks and snorted some coke? The point is how it's talked about in the media, why, and what the effects have been.
One rare feature was how a lot of pressure was put on the whips by someone who clearly didn't know what they were doing. I believe the whips were furious. The "someone" is unlikely to have been Truss who for all the "fighter" talk must have known for at least several days that she was on her way down the plughole. Why would she bother? Would anyone have listened to her if she tried?
The role of polling companies is little considered. So x% of sampled Tory members want Johnson, or y% of sampled voters say they'd vote Tory were a GE held tomorrow. So what? There are many ways of choosing, asking, and timing polling questions, and many ways of reporting the results too.
I don't think the Mail is pushing for a Starmer government.
But a lot could happen between the announcement of a GE and the vote.
The king Watch the king. The king is important.
He must be absolutely loving it that politicians are looking as though they couldn't organise a p*ssup in a brewery.
Johnson upset him shortly before he fell, calling him (so sophisticatedly of course) "condescending".
The king may try something but if he does it will f*ck up because he's an idiot.
Farage He may be the only leading British politician who has threatened to take up a rifle in civil war. He could play a bit part in taking some % from the Tories in polls and elections, but he's yesterday's man.
Weren't some of the Tories complicit in attempts to launch a civil war in Ireland back in 1914?
Thank’s Boris. Real cash just from watching his odds come in over 24 hours (cut and run because I don’t think he’ll get it). Currently in the green on Tory majority too. That’s my own cost of living crisis solved.
Chaos and order The son of slim pickings is a Lord Mountbatten or Junio Borghese solution - or attempted solution.
Slim pickings begets an environment in which the general feeling in the political class lies somewhere between
"It's good that X is stepping in. This was no time for standing on niceties, the law, or precedent. Someone had to stop Woke" and
"I'm past caring. Politicians are pathetic. The system was broken. Let's see what happens."
Johnson Johnson doesn't fit that bill. Sorry to his many fans in the Tory membership. He may want to be Julius Caesar but he hasn't got it in him, even if he did play rugger at Eton. He's not even Berlusconi. He's not that kind of killer.
Even in the event that he did return, he still wouldn't fit the bill. "Chaos" would continue while he was at No.10. Quite possibly in his 2nd term he'd last less time than Truss. For all the Boris bikes and Boris building plans, he's not Mitterand. He's a journalist-politician-clown.
Technocratic solution There's no history whatsoever in Britain of technocrats in leading cabinet positions. If a technocrat play does eventuate, it too might not last long.
Media The role of the traditional non-Twitter media - the Mail, and to a lesser extent the Telegraph and BBC - is often taken for granted when the sh*t is hitting the fan, when what's actually happening deserves more attention.
Was the contretemps outside the Commons voting lobbies worse than often happens late in the evening when MPs have had a few drinks and snorted some coke? The point is how it's talked about in the media, why, and what the effects have been.
One rare feature was how a lot of pressure was put on the whips by someone who clearly didn't know what they were doing. I believe the whips were furious. The "someone" is unlikely to have been Truss who for all the "fighter" talk must have known for at least several days that she was on her way down the plughole. Why would she bother? Would anyone have listened to her if she tried?
The role of polling companies is little considered. So x% of sampled Tory members want Johnson, or y% of sampled voters say they'd vote Tory were a GE held tomorrow. So what? There are many ways of choosing, asking, and timing polling questions, and many ways of reporting the results too.
I don't think the Mail is pushing for a Starmer government.
But a lot could happen between the announcement of a GE and the vote.
The king Watch the king. The king is important.
He must be absolutely loving it that politicians are looking as though they couldn't organise a p*ssup in a brewery.
Johnson upset him shortly before he fell, calling him (so sophisticatedly of course) "condescending".
The king may try something but if he does it will f*ck up because he's an idiot.
Farage He may be the only leading British politician who has threatened to take up a rifle in civil war. He could play a bit part in taking some % from the Tories in polls and elections, but he's yesterday's man.
The only reason the King might get involved is if the new Tory leader lacked support from most Tory MPs still and Tory rebels voted with the opposition to no confidence the government. In which case he would call a general election.
Otherwise he will again appoint as PM whoever the Tories select
Best chance for long term prospects of Tory Party - Rishi or Penny take over. Lead the Party to a defeat (let’s say that they manage 150-220 seats, something in that range. Very bad defeat to bad defeat, but avoiding Canada).
Rishi and Penny stay in post. Senior figures claim they’ve demonstrated enough that they should be given time as LOTO to rebuild the party. Manage to steady ship and live to fight one more election - might prevent the takeover by an ERG loony in the short term, at least?
Is Mordaunt more likely to support Johnson or Sunak?
Johnson, because she will conclude that Johnson will win with the members.
Yes. That does have to be the risk. Penny backs BoJo for her pieces of silver (big cabinet job). My understanding is they haven’t gotten on that well historically (rumour he was wary of over-promoting her knowing she was ambitious); but that doesn’t mean much in the modern Tory party - everyone hates everyone else!
It seems unlikely he doesn't get to 100 doesn't it? The Tory party has a problem though if Rishi wins the final indicative vote by a really big margin.
There is an argument, potentially, that the membership could go for Rishi over Boris if the gap is so monumental and MPs come out and confirm they won’t support a BoZo government.
I am not saying it is the most likely result, but staring down the barrel there is at least a chance they may feel something of an obligation to choose Rishi.
I guess it depends on your confidence in the Tory Party membership to vote in the interests of the wider party and the country. My confidence level is low. But they could surprise me.
The key could be what Hunt does, and when?
If he came out with a clear statement against Boris - choosing carefully from the range of options from mild concern about the market consequences right up to a promise to resign if Johnson is chosen- it could have a significant effect (with of course some risk of that being the opposite from what he would intend).
I think that simply galvanises those who think it a remainer coup. Even if that succeeded in stopping Boris, which it probably would do, it would leave the next government which Hunt wants to stay on as chancellor in, dead on arrival without a commons majority and at the mercy of the ERG, who we know show no mercy.
It seems unlikely he doesn't get to 100 doesn't it? The Tory party has a problem though if Rishi wins the final indicative vote by a really big margin.
There is an argument, potentially, that the membership could go for Rishi over Boris if the gap is so monumental and MPs come out and confirm they won’t support a BoZo government.
I am not saying it is the most likely result, but staring down the barrel there is at least a chance they may feel something of an obligation to choose Rishi.
I guess it depends on your confidence in the Tory Party membership to vote in the interests of the wider party and the country. My confidence level is low. But they could surprise me.
The key could be what Hunt does, and when?
If he came out with a clear statement against Boris - choosing carefully from the range of options from mild concern about the market consequences right up to a promise to resign if Johnson is chosen- it could have a significant effect (with of course some risk of that being the opposite from what he would intend).
I think that simply galvanises those who think it a remainer coup. Even if that succeeded in stopping Boris, which it probably would do, it would leave the next government which Hunt wants to stay on as chancellor in, dead on arrival without a commons majority and at the mercy of the ERG, who we know show no mercy.
So I think Hunt stays diplomatic.
Depends on how certain it looks that the Tories are going to gamble on the clown, I'd say
There are still some sensible 'grandees' in the party who will be doing what they can to avoid getting lumbered with Johnson. What other bullets do they have? An interview with John Major on R4 Today isn't going to cut it.
It seems unlikely he doesn't get to 100 doesn't it? The Tory party has a problem though if Rishi wins the final indicative vote by a really big margin.
There is an argument, potentially, that the membership could go for Rishi over Boris if the gap is so monumental and MPs come out and confirm they won’t support a BoZo government.
I am not saying it is the most likely result, but staring down the barrel there is at least a chance they may feel something of an obligation to choose Rishi.
I guess it depends on your confidence in the Tory Party membership to vote in the interests of the wider party and the country. My confidence level is low. But they could surprise me.
The key could be what Hunt does, and when?
If he came out with a clear statement against Boris - choosing carefully from the range of options from mild concern about the market consequences right up to a promise to resign if Johnson is chosen- it could have a significant effect (with of course some risk of that being the opposite from what he would intend).
I think that simply galvanises those who think it a remainer coup. Even if that succeeded in stopping Boris, which it probably would do, it would leave the next government which Hunt wants to stay on as chancellor in, dead on arrival without a commons majority and at the mercy of the ERG, who we know show no mercy.
So I think Hunt stays diplomatic.
Depends on how certain it looks that the Tories are going to gamble on the clown, I'd say
There are still some sensible 'grandees' in the party who will be doing what they can to avoid getting lumbered with Johnson. What other bullets do they have? An interview with John Major on R4 Today isn't going to cut it.
He may actually be their lower volatility option. There is no safe choice here.
Comments
Johnson seems to have stalled.
That was true in July this year it’s going to be even more accurate now
I want the Tories to choose a sane leader (Sunak or Mordaunt) and steady things a bit, then go to the country next year or possibly the year after. While I'd have no particular problem with Tory extinction in a short term GE, I wouldn't really want a Labour government with a huge majority as I think the loons that would get elected for Labour (in theoretically unwinnable seats) would also cause plenty of trouble and instability. My favoured next government would be a smallish Lab majority or a Lib-Lab coalition. We need 2 (or 3) strong parties that could be governments in waiting; we haven't had that since 2015, imo.
What we have learned is that the Trussian dream of a low-tax low-regulation powerhouse economy isn’t deliverable in the short to medium term (nor desirable for many people).
Government has to be there to help facilitate the country’s success and adaptation. For all his faults Boris understood this somewhat, he was just too lazy and if we’re going to honest many in his party didn’t have the will to really implement it.
It's still quite amusing to plug the raw figures into electoral calculus. Doubly amusing that this poll was for GB News. Have a look at the predicted number of Conservative seats
Johnson be back in No 10? Interesting chat with Cab min who thinks BJ cld hit 100 threshold, & if he does thinks he’s back. “I’d expect him to get to 100. Even MPs who resigned from his govt were on terrace y’day telling colleagues they’d now back him & members definitely will”
Good people of Hampstead brace yourselves...the clown is back
The latter is slightly less likely but still imo the most likely outcome
{Wipes cobwebs from the baseball bat with the nails in it}
The Musicians do their own thing outside the normal chain of command. Kadyrovtsy just seem to post on TikTok/ Telegram brassing up empty buildings well behind the FEBA.
*Yes, indeed.
If the Tories coalesce quickly around a sensible leadership team, then fair enough. Otherwise, Labour are going to be looking like the only grown-ups.
Fixed that for you. No charge.
Then he'll be chosen by the Antiques Roadshow ahead of the little fella.
https://twitter.com/paulmainwood/status/1583391348895293440
A 1922 exec member has just been in touch to say they're supporting Rishi.
If you want to take into account private supporters, Rishi's now tying with Boris. Up to you.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1583391446291611648
It was a terrible plan for Covid.
Ditto the murderous Chechen twat.
As we were once all warned....
It is very, very hard to break the two main parties under FPTP, but it has happened in Scotland. As you say with PR a realignment is not only possible, but in my opinion likely for all parties.
"Germany plans withdrawal from Energy Charter Treaty"
https://euobserver.com/green-economy/156315
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Charter_Treaty
I am not saying it is the most likely result, but staring down the barrel there is at least a chance they may feel something of an obligation to choose Rishi.
I guess it depends on your confidence in the Tory Party membership to vote in the interests of the wider party and the country. My confidence level is low. But they could surprise me.
"The mandate to the European Commission was to bring the Energy Charter Treaty in line with the Paris Climate Agreement," Dutch Energy Minister Rob Jetten told parliament in The Hague on Tuesday. Despite much progress in the negotiations, Jetten said the agreement was "not sufficiently in line" with the Paris Agreement and he announced the Netherlands would leave the agreement.
Obviously things could change if he was actually to win. But a significant number of Tory MPs are now telling me they simply will not serve as Conservative MPs if Boris returns. Not clear if that would be enough to bring down the government. But an early election is now viable.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1583392955796029440
The real question is how the Tories would react to it, and what sort of "new Tories" would emerge.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1583393855969562624
- The next pandemic will put a huge demand on PPE supplies
- The collections of bits of plastic that made up PPE are full of gaps. So if the next one is truly airborne....
For welding (and other industrial stuff) incredible advances have ben made in reusable PPE. air filtering to micron levels is standard. The forced air systems* provide an air-conditioning effect, which prevents mask fogging and makes it possible to wear for longer, comfortably.
*A rechargeable filter/airpump which you wear on a belt clip - size of a water bottle.
Voters know Johnson now. The opposition attack ads are going to be easy to produce. He will improve the Tory vote (not difficult at present) but I believe he has a 35% ceiling at best even if he doesn't get caught out lying and fuck-up again. The euphoria of people such as yourself will be short lived.
The son of slim pickings is a Lord Mountbatten or Junio Borghese solution - or attempted solution.
Slim pickings begets an environment in which the general feeling in the political class lies somewhere between
"It's good that X is stepping in. This was no time for standing on niceties, the law, or precedent. Someone had to stop Woke" and
"I'm past caring. Politicians are pathetic. The system was broken. Let's see what happens."
Johnson
Johnson doesn't fit that bill. Sorry to his many fans in the Tory membership. He may want to be Julius Caesar but he hasn't got it in him, even if he did play rugger at Eton. He's not even Berlusconi. He's not that kind of killer.
Even in the event that he did return, he still wouldn't fit the bill. "Chaos" would continue while he was at No.10. Quite possibly in his 2nd term he'd last less time than Truss. For all the Boris bikes and Boris building plans, he's not Mitterand. He's a journalist-politician-clown.
Technocratic solution
There's no history whatsoever in Britain of technocrats in leading cabinet positions. If a technocrat play does eventuate, it too might not last long.
Media
The role of the traditional non-Twitter media - the Mail, and to a lesser extent the Telegraph and BBC - is often taken for granted when the sh*t is hitting the fan, when what's actually happening deserves more attention.
Was the contretemps outside the Commons voting lobbies worse than often happens late in the evening when MPs have had a few drinks and snorted some coke? The point is how it's talked about in the media, why, and what the effects have been.
One rare feature was how a lot of pressure was put on the whips by someone who clearly didn't know what they were doing. I believe the whips were furious. The "someone" is unlikely to have been Truss who for all the "fighter" talk must have known for at least several days that she was on her way down the plughole. Why would she bother? Would anyone have listened to her if she tried?
The role of polling companies is little considered. So x% of sampled Tory members want Johnson, or y% of sampled voters say they'd vote Tory were a GE held tomorrow. So what? There are many ways of choosing, asking, and timing polling questions, and many ways of reporting the results too.
I don't think the Mail is pushing for a Starmer government.
But a lot could happen between the announcement of a GE and the vote.
The king
Watch the king. The king is important.
He must be absolutely loving it that politicians are looking as though they couldn't organise a p*ssup in a brewery.
Johnson upset him shortly before he fell, calling him (so sophisticatedly of course) "condescending".
The king may try something but if he does it will f*ck up because he's an idiot.
Farage
He may be the only leading British politician who has threatened to take up a rifle in civil war. He could play a bit part in taking some % from the Tories in polls and elections, but he's yesterday's man.
If he came out with a clear statement against Boris - choosing carefully from the range of options from mild concern about the market consequences right up to a promise to resign if Johnson is chosen- it could have a significant effect (with of course some risk of that being the opposite from what he would intend).
Steve Baker isn’t unless he’s undergone a Damascene conversion .
Otherwise he will again appoint as PM whoever the Tories select
Rishi and Penny stay in post. Senior figures claim they’ve demonstrated enough that they should be given time as LOTO to rebuild the party. Manage to steady ship and live to fight one more election - might prevent the takeover by an ERG loony in the short term, at least?
He was briefing for Braverman only this week.
So I think Hunt stays diplomatic.
There are still some sensible 'grandees' in the party who will be doing what they can to avoid getting lumbered with Johnson. What other bullets do they have? An interview with John Major on R4 Today isn't going to cut it.
Labour MP Christian Matheson should be suspended from Commons for four weeks for "serious sexual misconduct", a parliamentary watchdog has said.
The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards upheld two allegations of sexual misconduct against Matheson by a former member of his staff.
If he is suspended for four weeks, a recall petition will be opened in his constituency of City of Chester.
If 10% of the electorate sign the petition within six weeks, the seat will be declared vacant and a by-election held.