An embarrassment of riches …. or maybe just an embarrassment. – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.120 -
Starmers Labour.....?Nigelb said:
I'm slightly green on all outcomes and have given up trying to predict the collection of risibles.Casino_Royale said:I've laid Boris again this morning.
(1) Guido’s ramping. Boris doesn't actually have more declared support than Sunak. I view this as a sign of weakness - not strength; if he had the real names he'd declare them. He's trying to build an inevitability narrative that doesn't yet exist.
(2) Boris hasn't declared he will stand yet. He is taking "soundings" and that doesn't just mean MPs who'd support him, it means taking views of those he knows into account.
(3) I expect many MPs to mobilise this morning to declare they'd refuse to serve under him or would resign the whip, which may spook the markets.
DYOR.
British democracy needs a credible right of centre party. The Conservatives have given up on that.0 -
They'll eventually recover.noneoftheabove said:
And probably knocked £200k off the value of your assets......TheScreamingEagles said:
Tories sub 15%Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Ker-fuck-ching.
I will speak always favourably about Liz Truss, her premiership has helped me win over £2,000, not bad for fewer than seven weeks.0 -
Why ?Ratters said:
That surely has to be the nadir of Tory polling.Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
The only way is up from here??1 -
BREAKING: The Bank of England’s mammoth government bond holdings become a drain on UK public finances for the first time, costing taxpayers £156 million https://trib.al/Ohr2wse https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1583350724150206465/photo/11
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It's up to 15 x anonymous backers this morning - if you take them off his total of 52 Boris is already behind Rishi, who's on 41 named backers.numbertwelve said:I found Guidos spreadsheet very helpful in the previous contest. Sad to see it just descend into blatant Boris ramping “1922 board”? “CCHQ Vice Chair” (x2)?
The interesting question that should be asked is (if true) why so many MPs don't want to go on the record with their support.2 -
£2,500 on her way in, and £250 on her way out again. Should have had more on.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tories sub 15%Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
Ker-fuck-ching.
I will speak always favourably about Liz Truss, her premiership has helped me win over £2,000, not bad for fewer than seven weeks.2 -
Debt as a % of GDP is 98.0% compared to the OBR forecast made in March of 95.7% Aargh0
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If I were Penny I’d be running a spoiler campaign, try to get second in MP preferences, with Rishi in first (freezing out Boris) and then magnanimously withdraw so Rishi becomes PM. Get the FCO out of it.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
I see the case for Penny, but I do fear she won’t be able to pass the credibility test - there are (rightly and wrongly) two big beasts in Rishi and Johnson and if they are both passed over for someone with largely junior ministerial experience I do think the public will largely write her off, probably unfairly but there you go0 -
Blair would have had Labour on 75%...Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.120 -
How many MPs publicly declared support at the nominations stage last time? Before the first set of secret voting?Casino_Royale said:
It's up to 15 x anonymous backers this morning - if you take them off his total of 52 Boris is already behind Rishi, who's on 41 named backers.numbertwelve said:I found Guidos spreadsheet very helpful in the previous contest. Sad to see it just descend into blatant Boris ramping “1922 board”? “CCHQ Vice Chair” (x2)?
The interesting question that should be asked is (if true) why so many MPs don't want to go on the record with their support.
I am not sure there are 300 MPs who want to publicly declare for a particular candidate.0 -
Kinell. Tory/Lib Dem crossover incoming?Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.122 -
The key problem with the return of the prodigal son is the nation is dragged further down the sewer as Johnson schemes his way to a GE victory with his sidekick JRM. A sort of political version of Dick Dastardly and Muttley.RochdalePioneers said:
This is their challenge. Whilst on paper we elect the named candidate on the ballot paper and not the party or a PM, most voters don't accept this - they vote for a PM.Penddu2 said:If I was a Labour supporter I would be encouraging Boris to stand. He will destroy any credibility left in the Conservative party...
Boris Johnson is the only potential candidate with a political mandate. He is the reason why the Tories won the 2019 election as they did. But he is also a PM who was hounded out of office a few months ago following scandal after scandal with strongly negative approval ratings.
So his mandate of 2019 is tenuous at best here in 2022. But tenuous is at least something that exists. Unlike the "mandate" that Sunak or Mordaunt or Braverman could clam. No candidate is going to unify the party, so the paper majority doesn't exist in practice.
I still think a spring 2023 election is on. Whichever PM we get next - the disgraced last-but-one one or yet another retread replacement - they are going to seriously struggle to maintain parliamentary discipline and actually govern. With massive poll disapproval and an overwhelming sense of fatigue against them.
In the meantime children are going hungry, and homes are being repossessed. It is beginning to look brutal outside the Westminster bubble. I am normally insulated from recession in my job, but this year has been the worst I have known in 20 years save for the COVID lockdowns, and it has been difficult since before the omnishambles non-budget. Businesses do not want to spend ANY money they can avoid spending. I am losing tenders for less money than I was pricing for, ten years ago.
Johnson may want to return for giggles, but there aren't many serious people smiling at the moment. Maybe the sight of Johnson in a hi Viz coat driving a JCB, or touring the streets of Kyiv every other week in a flak jacket will cheer us up.2 -
Hilarious Scottish numbers:Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
SNP 58%
SLab 22%
SLD 7%
Grn 3%
Ref 3%
SCon 3%
oth 3%0 -
There's well over a hundred others who will have it announced for them.StuartDickson said:Only 6 Conservative MPs have so far announced their retirement at the next GE:
Ross, Moray, leader Scottish Tories
Adams, Selby & Ainsty
Afriyie, Windsor
Blunt, Reigate
Penning, Hemel Hempstead
Walker, Broxbourne
Surely that list is going to triple or quadruple shortly?3 -
That poll can be read more than one way - it's thin gruel either way but suggests Sunak might have better luck at building a slightly different coalition.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/15833430923121336331 -
The members clearly believe as a point of fundamental principle that it's their inalienable right to choose the next PM.CarlottaVance said:
Liddington’s pleas seem to have fallen on deaf ears.Nigelb said:
The interviews with the members which followed. Cripes.CarlottaVance said:R4 Sir David Liddington stressing the importance of a competent and effective government - and as Michael Howard said Johnson has had his chance.
I think the other good point he made is that the Conservative membership* should be consulted when they are in Opposition, but when in government it should be MPs only - as they have a mandate from the whole electorate, not just party members. And if the party membership choice meets electoral approval in a subsequent GE all well and good, and if not, perhaps they’ll learn.
*Would apply to Labour too, if they were ever any good at getting rid of duds.
And that their recent cockup was someone else's fault.
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Shoot the messenger.Andy_JS said:
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
It never helps.0 -
Indeed.
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Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.1 -
There is always the World Economic Forum, the ECHR or Gordon Brown to blame. Works for some.Nigelb said:
The members clearly believe as a point of fundamental principle that it's their inalienable right to choose the next PM.CarlottaVance said:
Liddington’s pleas seem to have fallen on deaf ears.Nigelb said:
The interviews with the members which followed. Cripes.CarlottaVance said:R4 Sir David Liddington stressing the importance of a competent and effective government - and as Michael Howard said Johnson has had his chance.
I think the other good point he made is that the Conservative membership* should be consulted when they are in Opposition, but when in government it should be MPs only - as they have a mandate from the whole electorate, not just party members. And if the party membership choice meets electoral approval in a subsequent GE all well and good, and if not, perhaps they’ll learn.
*Would apply to Labour too, if they were ever any good at getting rid of duds.
And that their recent cockup was someone else's fault.0 -
One thing the opinion polls do is put into context all those posts on here from not so long ago saying "if the Cons are doing so badly why isn't it showing up in the polls?"2
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Why would Mordaunt beat Sunak though? She is behind in what polls we have so far and is too woke for the membership.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.0 -
Not good polling at all. Needs clear water between non-Boris and Boris or he might yet do it.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
Of course, we know anyone non Boris will struggle with some voters, since Boris wants to make that so - they don't deserve success after ousting him after all.0 -
Not head-to-head she's not, is she?noneoftheabove said:
Why would Mordaunt beat Sunak though? She is behind in what polls we have so far and is too woke for the membership.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.0 -
Imagine a year ago someone had told you the Tories would be on 14% *but Reform would only be on 5% and LD on 11%*.
You'd think somebody must have made a new conservative party and all the voters had gone over there.2 -
On topic, point 12, I disagree.
On two occasions I was in Number 10, I saw mice, Larry saw them, and he either ran away or just rolled over.
Killer instincts? Nah, as Chief Mouser, he was as successful as Liz Truss as PM.0 -
Exclusive Labour to step up efforts to stop ‘reckless’ Northern Ireland protocol bill in Lords. 22 amendments will be tabled by the party https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/21/labour-to-step-efforts-to-stop-reckless-northern-ireland-protocol-bill-in-lords?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other0
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Why did they star out c***s but leave B***s in normal letters?TheScreamingEagles said:Indeed.
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Don't worry Andy on news of Boris's resurrection it will be Con 53, Lab 14. You know it makes sense.Andy_JS said:
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.120 -
Because if the membership has an opportunity to cock things up they will cock things up.noneoftheabove said:
Why would Mordaunt beat Sunak though? She is behind in what polls we have so far and is too woke for the membership.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.3 -
Pure gold!TheScreamingEagles said:Indeed.
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Perhaps he would do better as PM and we put Truss onto killing mice?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, point 12, I disagree.
On two occasions I was in Number 10, I saw mice, Larry saw them, and he either ran away or just rolled over.
Killer instincts? Nah, as Chief Mouser, he was as successful as Liz Truss as PM.2 -
The Tories have taken themselves & the country to the brink, defying caution, competence & common sense so often that a sense of self-preservation & responsibility must apply now or it’s all too late. They can’t fail this test. Surely? Me for @NewStatesman https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/10/will-the-conservatives-now-finally-make-a-sensible-choice1
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Hes still got 10% of the MPs at least on his side. I think 20-25% is easy enough for him to achieve. Beyond that he struggles, unless the MPs get evidence he's their best hope. Then a lot grit their teeth.Casino_Royale said:I've laid Boris again this morning.
(1) Guido’s ramping. Boris doesn't actually have more declared support than Sunak. I view this as a sign of weakness - not strength; if he had the real names he'd declare them. He's trying to build an inevitability narrative that doesn't yet exist.
(2) Boris hasn't declared he will stand yet. He is taking "soundings" and that doesn't just mean MPs who'd support him, it means taking views of those he knows into account.
(3) I expect many MPs to mobilise this morning to declare they'd refuse to serve under him or would resign the whip, which may spook the markets.
DYOR.1 -
I could live with that.ydoethur said:
Perhaps he would do better as PM and we put Truss onto killing mice?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, point 12, I disagree.
On two occasions I was in Number 10, I saw mice, Larry saw them, and he either ran away or just rolled over.
Killer instincts? Nah, as Chief Mouser, he was as successful as Liz Truss as PM.0 -
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.0 -
What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?0
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And the mice hopefully wouldn't!TheScreamingEagles said:
I could live with that.ydoethur said:
Perhaps he would do better as PM and we put Truss onto killing mice?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, point 12, I disagree.
On two occasions I was in Number 10, I saw mice, Larry saw them, and he either ran away or just rolled over.
Killer instincts? Nah, as Chief Mouser, he was as successful as Liz Truss as PM.0 -
That wasn't what I was doing. 14% would be a Canada 1993 result for the Tories.StuartDickson said:
Shoot the messenger.Andy_JS said:
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
It never helps.0 -
There is always a delay effect in polling.TOPPING said:One thing the opinion polls do is put into context all those posts on here from not so long ago saying "if the Cons are doing so badly why isn't it showing up in the polls?"
Might we see the Conservatives recording an infamous LibDem-like asterisk?
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Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.ThePoliticalParty said:What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.3 -
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.1 -
A lot of Bozo supporters are going to be telling their MPs over the weekend that Bozo is their only choice.kle4 said:
Hes still got 10% of the MPs at least on his side. I think 20-25% is easy enough for him to achieve. Beyond that he struggles, unless the MPs get evidence he's their best hope. Then a lot grit their teeth.Casino_Royale said:I've laid Boris again this morning.
(1) Guido’s ramping. Boris doesn't actually have more declared support than Sunak. I view this as a sign of weakness - not strength; if he had the real names he'd declare them. He's trying to build an inevitability narrative that doesn't yet exist.
(2) Boris hasn't declared he will stand yet. He is taking "soundings" and that doesn't just mean MPs who'd support him, it means taking views of those he knows into account.
(3) I expect many MPs to mobilise this morning to declare they'd refuse to serve under him or would resign the whip, which may spook the markets.
DYOR.
The reality is that Bozo isn't - nothing is going to help those MPs retain their seats at the next election but Bozo is likely to reduce Tory votes further - for everyone who still likes Bozo 2+ people now hate him.2 -
It looks to me that all the Boris-ultras came out immediately to declare their support and now looks to be slowing considerably. One hopes that is the case at least. Tories need some boring competence until the next general election. If they can demonstrate that they should be able to climb back up towards 30% if swing-back comes back in. If they continue to in-fight then they face an extinction level event.Casino_Royale said:
It's up to 15 x anonymous backers this morning - if you take them off his total of 52 Boris is already behind Rishi, who's on 41 named backers.numbertwelve said:I found Guidos spreadsheet very helpful in the previous contest. Sad to see it just descend into blatant Boris ramping “1922 board”? “CCHQ Vice Chair” (x2)?
The interesting question that should be asked is (if true) why so many MPs don't want to go on the record with their support.0 -
Yes, it would be a bizarre time to be coy. Guido is usually not so generous in these spreadsheet things, so as to list the anonymous. It's not evidence if anything if it cannot be, or, evidenced.Casino_Royale said:
It's up to 15 x anonymous backers this morning - if you take them off his total of 52 Boris is already behind Rishi, who's on 41 named backers.numbertwelve said:I found Guidos spreadsheet very helpful in the previous contest. Sad to see it just descend into blatant Boris ramping “1922 board”? “CCHQ Vice Chair” (x2)?
The interesting question that should be asked is (if true) why so many MPs don't want to go on the record with their support.
Could be right, but no point telling us if it's as unproven as a guess.1 -
It is certainly making more sense - i.e. the LDs start to pick up votes ex Tories.Andy_JS said:
That wasn't what I was doing. 14% would be a Canada 1993 result for the Tories.StuartDickson said:
Shoot the messenger.Andy_JS said:
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
It never helps.0 -
You could, but how likely is it?Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.
If Boris isn't going to get the nominations then is 5/1 really a lay on the idea that Mordaunt won't either, or will lose to Sunak?0 -
West Indies disintegrating more imposingly than a Truss government.
I bet Michael Holding isn't the only one talking sadly about the good ol' days...1 -
I’m backing @RishiSunak to be our Prime Minister.
Rishi will restore public confidence in our party and market confidence in our economy.
He will unite @conservatives and lead our country with integrity, judgement and competence. #ready4rishi
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/1583353441434206208
0 -
At this rate Alba will have more votes than Scons. (Subsamples, yes, we all know, so it's still a matter of poking the spoor with a stick till we see the owner, so to speak.)StuartDickson said:
Hilarious Scottish numbers:Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
SNP 58%
SLab 22%
SLD 7%
Grn 3%
Ref 3%
SCon 3%
oth 3%1 -
Another nail in their coffin and I think we may add the final nail with our lack of tours in the near future.ydoethur said:West Indies disintegrating more imposingly than a Truss government.
I bet Michael Holding isn't the only one talking sadly about the good ol' days...3 -
LizT and Kwasi might still complain that our debt is lower than other countries', which is perhaps another sign of how bad was their mini-budget.LostPassword said:Debt as a % of GDP is 98.0% compared to the OBR forecast made in March of 95.7% Aargh
0 -
The risk for BoZo is that while the nutters and swivel-eyed loons love him, he may even recover in the polls, but the bond markets may still take flight.
If the "conkering (sic) hero" returns and the economy is still buggered that is not the story he wants written1 -
Tories have just changed the rulebook by the looks of it.
Only the proposer and seconder is going to be formally identified - the other 98 are going to be anonymous.
I suspect that adds to Bozo's chances.1 -
If the various terms for ordure (s**t, s***e, c**p and t***s) were combined into one, that word has the makings of the most prominent word in the cloud.TheScreamingEagles said:Indeed.
0 -
If Mordaunt comes way behind Sunak on the MPs vote then I think she loses the members too.BartholomewRoberts said:
You could, but how likely is it?Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.
If Boris isn't going to get the nominations then is 5/1 really a lay on the idea that Mordaunt won't either, or will lose to Sunak?0 -
Her failure to listen to these guys - who were very much of her side - means we will now return to a Johnson premiership and the completion of the utter corruption of public life.DecrepiterJohnL said:
From that report:-CarlottaVance said:Liz Truss ignored stark warnings from economists sympathetic to her growth strategy that the mini-budget that ultimately led to her downfall risked triggering a financial markets meltdown, the Guardian has learned….
But days before the start of her premiership, she was told by the economists Gerard Lyons and Julian Jessop that the markets were highly nervous and that she could face a crash if her policy changes were not handled with care.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/21/liz-truss-ignored-economists-stark-warnings-over-mini-budget
Jessop said the opportunity to deliver on the growth strategy had now been lost. “Supply-side reforms need a strong, committed prime minister. We have gone back to what we were trying to avoid – a doom loop of tax increases, spending cuts and weak economic growth. A deep recession now starts to look more likely.”
I am extremely depressed about the political situation this morning.2 -
A Canada scenario is the least of the Tories’ worries. They recovered very well from the 2 seat nadir.Andy_JS said:
That wasn't what I was doing. 14% would be a Canada 1993 result for the Tories.StuartDickson said:
Shoot the messenger.Andy_JS said:
Is PeoplePolling regarded as a first rate pollster? They seem to come out with results that are different from the more well-known pollsters,Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
It never helps.
The scenario that really ought to worry you is a Liberal Party fate.0 -
I suppose it depends on how many of the ERG think they will keep their seats in GE Feb23?noneoftheabove said:
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.0 -
Yes, I think a 2022 GE is good value provided that The timetable allows. From a bit of cursory research (DYOR) the time from dissolution to GE is 25 working days which if done by end October/early November would make a December GE just about possible.noneoftheabove said:
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.0 -
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.ThePoliticalParty said:What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
0 -
Reduces them, surely? MPs can now tell their local party they nominated him even if they didn't.eek said:Tories have just changed the rulebook by the looks of it.
Only the proposer and seconder is going to be formally identified - the other 98 are going to be anonymous.
I suspect that adds to Bozo's chances.4 -
Just hope the ERG run their own candidate and split some of his nominations away.Scott_xP said:The risk for BoZo is that while the nutters and swivel-eyed loons love him, he may even recover in the polls, but the bond markets may still take flight.
If the "conkering (sic) hero" returns and the economy is still buggered that is not the story he wants written0 -
Interesting - I assumed t***s was cognate with c***s on that cloud.Mexicanpete said:
If the various terms for ordure (s**t, s***e, c**p and t***s) were combined into one, that word has the makings of the most prominent word in the cloud.TheScreamingEagles said:Indeed.
2 -
"Tory MPs have a 'patriotic duty' to call for an election - Lib Dem leader"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63338261
Being patriotic probably doesn't extend to calling an election when your party is on 14% in the polls.1 -
I agree - and that is my answer to @nico679 a little up thread. Nobody will have the support of the parliamentary party. They are too riven and fighting too bitter a war for the soul of the party to unify behind Sunak or Johnson.StuartDickson said:Are Truss and Kwarteng going to stand down and cause by-elections?
I just get a strong sense that we are about to get a spate of defections and/or by-elections.1 -
Rishi might restore public confidence etc, but unite? Why even say such nonsense? Too many people in the party despise their internal rivals for that .CarlottaVance said:I’m backing @RishiSunak to be our Prime Minister.
Rishi will restore public confidence in our party and market confidence in our economy.
He will unite @conservatives and lead our country with integrity, judgement and competence. #ready4rishi
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/15833534414342062080 -
It's also easier to find space to play relative to cricket.Andy_JS said:
Satellite TV showing American sports like basketball has totally wrecked West Indies cricket since the 1990s.ydoethur said:West Indies disintegrating more imposingly than a Truss government.
I bet Michael Holding isn't the only one talking sadly about the good ol' days...1 -
Ireland defeat the Windies and go through to the Super 12s.
That could be tasty.1 -
Terrestrial TV showing American sports after cricket went to satellite, iirc.Andy_JS said:
Satellite TV showing American sports like basketball has totally wrecked West Indies cricket since the 1990s.ydoethur said:West Indies disintegrating more imposingly than a Truss government.
I bet Michael Holding isn't the only one talking sadly about the good ol' days...2 -
I’m too busy laughing to care.Carnyx said:
At this rate Alba will have more votes than Scons. (Subsamples, yes, we all know, so it's still a matter of poking the spoor with a stick till we see the owner, so to speak.)StuartDickson said:
Hilarious Scottish numbers:Scott_xP said:NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (20 Oct):
🔴 LAB: 53% (= from 12 Oct)
🔵 CON: 14% (-5)
🟠 LDM: 11% (+3)
🟢 GRN: 6% (=)
🟡 SNP: 5% (-1)
Full tables: https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
SNP 58%
SLab 22%
SLD 7%
Grn 3%
Ref 3%
SCon 3%
oth 3%
Subsamples schwubsamples.
There is something beautiful about seeing the biggest bully in the school getting their face scrunched into the mud.
Childish, but beautiful.2 -
The initial response to are you Ready4Rishi was a clear no. This time it might be, 'sigh, I guess, if you must'.3
-
Also adds to Sunak's.eek said:Tories have just changed the rulebook by the looks of it.
Only the proposer and seconder is going to be formally identified - the other 98 are going to be anonymous.
I suspect that adds to Bozo's chances.
It makes a coronation more likely.
If it were all formally identified then if it looked something like Casino's 190/90/80 then there'd be immense pressure on some of the 80 to switch to the 90. If its all anonymous, then that can't happen.0 -
That makes more sense. Otherwise unlikely any of them would have got to 100!eek said:Tories have just changed the rulebook by the looks of it.
Only the proposer and seconder is going to be formally identified - the other 98 are going to be anonymous.
I suspect that adds to Bozo's chances.0 -
Didn't stop Truss. As shown from polling, Tory members have not changed. I think Mordaunt beats Sunak with members.Casino_Royale said:
If Mordaunt comes way behind Sunak on the MPs vote then I think she loses the members too.BartholomewRoberts said:
You could, but how likely is it?Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.
If Boris isn't going to get the nominations then is 5/1 really a lay on the idea that Mordaunt won't either, or will lose to Sunak?0 -
"But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election"Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.ThePoliticalParty said:What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
This happens before he becomes PM?
How do the mechanics on that work? The party splits?0 -
Yes. Wallace is the only unifying figure, with Hunt probably best placed to do it after him.kle4 said:
Rishi might restore public confidence etc, but unite? Why even say such nonsense? Too many people in the party despise their internal rivals for that .CarlottaVance said:I’m backing @RishiSunak to be our Prime Minister.
Rishi will restore public confidence in our party and market confidence in our economy.
He will unite @conservatives and lead our country with integrity, judgement and competence. #ready4rishi
https://twitter.com/RobertJenrick/status/15833534414342062080 -
Typo on my part, Boris Johnson as leader leads to Starmer as next PM after Truss.rottenborough said:
"But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election"Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.ThePoliticalParty said:What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.
This happens before he becomes PM?
How do the mechanics on that work? The party splits?
Resignations and defections lead to the Tory majority in the Commons being wiped out, add in the potential 8 by elections from the Boris Johnson's resignation honours list....0 -
I thought recent polling now showed him ahead?AlistairM said:
Didn't stop Truss. As shown from polling, Tory members have not changed. I think Mordaunt beats Sunak with members.Casino_Royale said:
If Mordaunt comes way behind Sunak on the MPs vote then I think she loses the members too.BartholomewRoberts said:
You could, but how likely is it?Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.
If Boris isn't going to get the nominations then is 5/1 really a lay on the idea that Mordaunt won't either, or will lose to Sunak?0 -
Another sceptic of Johnson running;
Johnson won’t run. Just a hunch. But he won’t.
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/15833547740527493121 -
Well, it also slowed because unlike me most of them have not been having bad insomnia.AlistairM said:
It looks to me that all the Boris-ultras came out immediately to declare their support and now looks to be slowing considerably. One hopes that is the case at least. Tories need some boring competence until the next general election. If they can demonstrate that they should be able to climb back up towards 30% if swing-back comes back in. If they continue to in-fight then they face an extinction level event.Casino_Royale said:
It's up to 15 x anonymous backers this morning - if you take them off his total of 52 Boris is already behind Rishi, who's on 41 named backers.numbertwelve said:I found Guidos spreadsheet very helpful in the previous contest. Sad to see it just descend into blatant Boris ramping “1922 board”? “CCHQ Vice Chair” (x2)?
The interesting question that should be asked is (if true) why so many MPs don't want to go on the record with their support.2 -
I agree. Rishi’s weakness with the members is often overplayed. He ended up running Truss a lot closer than people expected.Casino_Royale said:
If Mordaunt comes way behind Sunak on the MPs vote then I think she loses the members too.BartholomewRoberts said:
You could, but how likely is it?Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.
If Boris isn't going to get the nominations then is 5/1 really a lay on the idea that Mordaunt won't either, or will lose to Sunak?
With the “hindsight” vote and the feeling of panic re the economy (plus another few days of DMs attacks on Penny (they’ve started again) i think he would get it.
Though TBH I suspect Penny would withdraw if in the final 2 with Rishi, if he had measurably more support. She’s relatively easy to buy off with Foreign Secretary or other senior role.4 -
He's too fat to.CarlottaVance said:Another sceptic of Johnson running;
Johnson won’t run. Just a hunch. But he won’t.
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583354774052749312
And when did we start adopting that stupid Americanism 'run' rather than 'stand?'0 -
How does that work? How do you get from Truss, to Boris calling an election, to Starmer, without settling on Boris? Is there a PM on 1st January market?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I've got that covered with bets on Starmer at 140/1TheScreamingEagles said:
Lord Hague as PM from the Lords.ThePoliticalParty said:What happens if no one can get 100 backers by Monday?
But if it is Boris Johnson as PM then I foresee a general election, and as Alastair Meeks pointed out to me yesterday there's a route to Starmer as next PM after Truss.0 -
It had him beating Truss 60/40, which given her current standing is not very enthusiastic.ydoethur said:
I thought recent polling now showed him ahead?AlistairM said:
Didn't stop Truss. As shown from polling, Tory members have not changed. I think Mordaunt beats Sunak with members.Casino_Royale said:
If Mordaunt comes way behind Sunak on the MPs vote then I think she loses the members too.BartholomewRoberts said:
You could, but how likely is it?Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.
If Boris isn't going to get the nominations then is 5/1 really a lay on the idea that Mordaunt won't either, or will lose to Sunak?0 -
Yes, that's probably true. Sunak (weirdly) is brandished as a wet one nation Remainer in Leaver clothes (WTF, but hey I don't write the rules) and Boris as a lazy, incompetent, corrupt and vengeful loose cannon who debases the office and will struggle to staff a cabinet, except from the loons.RochdalePioneers said:
I agree - and that is my answer to @nico679 a little up thread. Nobody will have the support of the parliamentary party. They are too riven and fighting too bitter a war for the soul of the party to unify behind Sunak or Johnson.StuartDickson said:Are Truss and Kwarteng going to stand down and cause by-elections?
I just get a strong sense that we are about to get a spate of defections and/or by-elections.
So Starmer as next PM isn't a bad bet. If one of them does become PM then look to back Starmer next or a 2023 GE.3 -
Reports this morning that BoZo is on a plane.CarlottaVance said:Another sceptic of Johnson running;
Johnson won’t run. Just a hunch. But he won’t.
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1583354774052749312
Returning from holiday to not run?0 -
You can’t unite the Tory party but Johnson would lead to even more infighting .
Sunak at least has some credibility with the public having forecast what would happen with Truss .3 -
If they impose that drunken criminal on us a second time, I hope they never have a quiet night's sleep again.kle4 said:
Well, it also slowed because unlike me most of them have not been having bad insomnia.AlistairM said:
It looks to me that all the Boris-ultras came out immediately to declare their support and now looks to be slowing considerably. One hopes that is the case at least. Tories need some boring competence until the next general election. If they can demonstrate that they should be able to climb back up towards 30% if swing-back comes back in. If they continue to in-fight then they face an extinction level event.Casino_Royale said:
It's up to 15 x anonymous backers this morning - if you take them off his total of 52 Boris is already behind Rishi, who's on 41 named backers.numbertwelve said:I found Guidos spreadsheet very helpful in the previous contest. Sad to see it just descend into blatant Boris ramping “1922 board”? “CCHQ Vice Chair” (x2)?
The interesting question that should be asked is (if true) why so many MPs don't want to go on the record with their support.1 -
“If the Scottish parliament accepts this bill from the government, and removes the protection provided by a medical opinion before gender transitioning takes place, this will inevitably lead to some young Scottish persons being harmed.”
https://twitter.com/holyroodmandy/status/15833462990629765141 -
Rishi is the Best Case Scenario. For the country as well as the party. He would not find it easy going and I expect the infighting would deny him much of a working majority and we'd get an election next year. But he would steady the ship and hopefully stop the Tories imploding quickly.TOPPING said:Taking a step back it is amazing that the Cons party is even thinking of twatting itself around the head with a shovel again.
I can't be the only one (an ex-Cons member to boot) who sees Rishi as the only possible alternative for next leader and yet they are cocking about with Penny and you-know-who.
Truly it is a death wish. But also democracy, which is scarier.
But no, Shagger is still being lauded despite being hounded out of office under multiple clouds of still unresolved scandals just months ago.
Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.3 -
Why not just post me your money or flush it down the toilet instead?numbertwelve said:
Yes, I think a 2022 GE is good value provided that The timetable allows. From a bit of cursory research (DYOR) the time from dissolution to GE is 25 working days which if done by end October/early November would make a December GE just about possible.noneoftheabove said:
He would last about 3 months before the ERG take him down on those numbers. And only 3 because 1 of those is over Christmas.Casino_Royale said:
You could get 190 MPs supporting Rishi, 90 supporting Boris and 80 supporting Mordaunt.BartholomewRoberts said:
Not sure this fits with your idea that Boris won't get the nominations.Casino_Royale said:
Penny Mordaunt is a clear lay at 5/1, I think.CarlottaVance said:NEW. "Who should replace Liz Truss?"
ALL VOTERS
Rishi Sunak 19%
Boris Johnson 16%
Penny Mordaunt 5%
2019 CONSERVATIVES
Boris Johnson 38%
Rishi Sunak 20%
Penny Mordaunt 8%
@PeoplePolling Oct 20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1583343092312133633
If Boris doesn't, then I think Mordaunt would, and it seems likely that Mordaunt would get more voters backing Johnson than Sunak would.
Some head to head polls would be useful, but if Mordaunt beats Sunak head-to-head, and if Boris does too, then one of them will probably be next PM.
Rishi is coronated.0 -
BBC have Naga live in Downing Street. Not sure anything is happening there today. She should be in a HoC corridor.
Yesterday they had a helicopter doing live shots of Downing Street during the drama. What was that supposed to help us with?2 -
The Libdem loss in Fareham was a very local affair. A LibDem Councillor moved over 200 miles away but delayed resigning, apparently causing unnecessary cost.Andy_JS said:Second week in a row where the Tories have done better than expected in local by-elections.
An effective local Tory campaign followed. LibDems would have done the same if position were reversed. Nothing to do with national politics.3 -
They’ve done it for the opposite reason - to insulate MPs against pressure from the nutters in their local partieseek said:Tories have just changed the rulebook by the looks of it.
Only the proposer and seconder is going to be formally identified - the other 98 are going to be anonymous.
I suspect that adds to Bozo's chances.0 -
How many CCHQ Vice Chairs are there? I see two of them are supporting Johnson according to Guido0
-
Believing that Boris Johnson can repeat a success over a campaign led by Jeremy Corbyn and run by Ian Lavery and Len McCluskey's girlfriend would seem a bit presumptuous.
https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/15833573269539635203 -
Braverman "was resigned" by a PM who wanted her to go.RochdalePioneers said:Braverman "resigned" over accidentally selecting the wrong drop down on her send from email address. Imagine what PM Boris will have to do when we investigate Foreign Secretary Boris's no bodyguards trips to see Lebedev.
BoZo will never go if he is PM3
