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Punters make it a 64% chance that Truss won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com

It really is very hard to see how Truss survives following the latest moves by her Chancellor to eradicate almost completely the changes announced in the budget.
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Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.
Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
https://twitter.com/CamillaTominey/status/1581955802965094400?s=20&t=vt6yvIHbw-er4jl_1lyN-g
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1581963281014484993?s=20&t=vt6yvIHbw-er4jl_1lyN-g
Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…
Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.
What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)
he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
Wallace has come in a bit to 4/1
Starmer drifted to 10/1
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/16/russian-troops-kill-ukrainian-musician-yuriy-kerpatenko-for-refusing-role-in-kherson-concert
The whole point of IR35 was around employed v self employed, as the self employed:
1. Didn't pay NI (or at a much lower rate)
2. Didn't pay monthly
3. The employer saved Ers NIC
If you scrap NI, then (1) and (3) go away, making it much less of an issue. Sure, you've got the cashflow problem still, but the benefits of being employed v self employed are far far narrower.
https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1581990821896761345
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1581991376379531266
Cowardice from Truss. All the more reason for her to go.
You really don’t rate voters very highly, do you? The electorate is mature enough to understand why the mini-budget has been reversed, and if the Tories get punished it won’t be because they didn’t get the 19% tax rate.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
If she's not really functioning then the Tories need to make up their minds up *today*. Even if only for 6 months prior to a GE.
They can have their internal warfare after that.
1 Calmly answer the question - the markets required a complete reversal on every point
2 Refuse to provide any support at all towards the PM's position. A simple "I am here answering the urgent question on behalf of the government
3 Say that is a constitutional requirement that we have a government and ministers at all times and that is her function today.
Then sit down. She will be at least Home Secretary if not Foreign Secretary by Friday anyway. It would be stupid to expend any political capital in defence of someone who recently skewered her own ambitions.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1581993259756269569
Can I be November's Chancellor ?
Popcorn @ 3.30pm
She’s sending Penny hoping it’ll be her and not the total humiliation of Hunt, who takes over.
If Starmer can convince enough people that he is selling "New Labour Part Deux (minus Iraq)" - then the potential is there to get a higher share of the vote than Blair got.
First time round, a lot of people didn't believe that New Labour would stay Social Democrat, but would swing left after a short time in office.
True, you have the Corbyn thing. But he and his associates have been put back in their boxes.
Edit - they have a job to do as opposition, so they need to form a respectable one
That special fiscal operation was the new Fall of Singapore of which shiteness is measured again.
A change without (even a short) leadership campaign hasn't happened since MacMillan handed over to Home.
So she would be asked to stay on, and asked NOT to go to the Palace.
If she did, somehow, go to the Palace anyway, there would indeed be a massive problem as she won't be prevented from resigning (can't really do that) but there would be no obvious successor to take her place.
We could, in theory, survive constitutionally without a Prime Minister for several weeks or months (or in theory, indefinitely) but realistically someone would have to come forward pretty quick.
There must be plans hidden away for what happens if the PM falls down a flight of stairs, who they appoint, but who that person is I've no idea.
There was an alternative history story written many years ago about just this situation, located here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/i-cant-become-prime-minister-not-at-this-time-of-night.196319/
But I don't think it was concluded.
(Hint - Wilson dies suddenly in March '76 before announcing to resign. Ted Short takes over as interim whilst leadership campaign ran.)
Much as the Queen are it clear in the run up to the coalition, that she would make PM whoever could produce evidence they could command a majority.
Paging Nigel.........