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Punters make it a 64% chance that Truss won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,221
edited October 2022 in General
imagePunters make it a 64% chance that Truss won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com

It really is very hard to see how Truss survives following the latest moves by her Chancellor to eradicate almost completely the changes announced in the budget.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • StarryStarry Posts: 111
    First again?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    CarlottaVance said:

    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065

    Lmao, how utterly embarassing
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    edited October 2022
    CarlottaVance said:

    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065

    If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.

    And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.

    Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eek said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    eek said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TinkyWinky said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    glw said:

    Slackbladder said:

    One thing is clear

    1) Small State Libertarianism is dead
    2) Trickle Down economics is dead
    3) You can't buck the market
    4) The magic money tree doesn't exist

    If this becomes political orthodoxy across the main politcal parties that would be a very good thing.
    The problem is that everyone is ignoring the underlying issue which is that the current ponzi scheme model of our taxation and benefits system is unsustainable. So whilst I agree with you on some of these, the small state bit is inevitable either by planned reduction or by inevitable collapse. Truss has caused huge damage by trying to force the issue in the way she did so that people believe they have to stick with the current system. They can't, not in the medium to long term.
    The model is sustainable if it is done properly. In previous threads I seem to recall you arguing for something like a Victorian welfare system. Now that is something that is *unsustainable*.
    No it really isn't. It was designed as a safety net but has ballooned far beyond what it was designed for. I have never advocated a Victorian system. What I advocate is what the Atlee government intended it for and nothing more.

    The current system simply cannot cope as the tax burden needed to maintain it is unsustainable.
    +1 - working class families where parents are working shouldn't need tax credits to survive. Wages from their work should be enough for them to live on.
    At one point we got to the ridiculous situation where people on nearly top rate of tax were getting tax credits. Farcical system, taking money off people, then giving it some of it back after filling in a load of extra paperwork.
    From memory - it wasn't much paperwork - I think it took longer to get the form then it took to fill it in.
    Cost to the taxpayer of administering the scheme from all the extra paperwork flying around was significant. Also don't forget you got weird situations where better not to live together as a couple with kids (or rather not tell the tax man you are)...then when it finally got updated you got stupid situations where people given money they shouldn't have, then actually owed money back to the state they didn't have.
    The old 'toothbrush test' was an eye opener – if you have a toothbrush permanently stationed at your girlfriend/boyfriend's house, are you effectively cohabiting?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    That might well be counteracted by a stabilization relief rally. If she quits i imagine the numbers woulld improve a little but remain around 20 behind......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    Camilla Tominey ' The government has now joined the anti growth coalition'
    https://twitter.com/CamillaTominey/status/1581955802965094400?s=20&t=vt6yvIHbw-er4jl_1lyN-g
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,779
    CarlottaVance said:

    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065

    Can't they just leave it that he'll do it if it takes her more than two minutes for her to think of something?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    RochdalePioneers said:

    JamesF said:


    So who will November's chancellor be? Back to Rishi again? Or someone exciting and new?

    Sam Allardyce is available.

    Big Sam Allardyce Chancellor
    Big Ron Atkinson Chief Secretary
    Big Bird from Sesame Street as Parliamentary Secretary
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    Farage on the warpath over the Hunt statement

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1581963281014484993?s=20&t=vt6yvIHbw-er4jl_1lyN-g
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,003
    Hunt can at least stand up and say "I'm going nowhere...."
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    edited October 2022
    MarqueeMark said:

    Truss is enduring an orgy of humiliation.

    Are we 100% sure humiliation isn't her preferred kink
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    HYUFD said:

    Farage on the warpath over the Hunt statement

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1581963281014484993?s=20&t=vt6yvIHbw-er4jl_1lyN-g

    This is either finally his Westminster moment or his last hurrah
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    edited October 2022
    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    wooliedyed said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    That might well be counteracted by a stabilization relief rally. If she quits i imagine the numbers woulld improve a little but remain around 20 behind......
    I would imagine that for everyone happy with Truss going another is going to be annoyed by the changes that have been announced - looking at linkedIn I'm seeing a lot of very annoyed people.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    Being churlish, those things only affect a small proportion of voters. But it's certainly only depress her numbers further.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,539
    Anabobazina said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    JamesF said:


    So who will November's chancellor be? Back to Rishi again? Or someone exciting and new?

    Sam Allardyce is available.

    Big Sam Allardyce Chancellor
    Big Ron Atkinson Chief Secretary
    Big Bird from Sesame Street as Parliamentary Secretary
    Otherwise known as Simon Clarke....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    edited October 2022
    eek said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065

    If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.

    And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.

    Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
    If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party,
    he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.

    The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755
    Very slight drift in Sunak, almost out to 2/1

    Wallace has come in a bit to 4/1

    Starmer drifted to 10/1
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,951
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    Farage on the warpath over the Hunt statement

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1581963281014484993?s=20&t=vt6yvIHbw-er4jl_1lyN-g

    Why are you so concerned by Farage's dipsh*ttery. He is a political opponent of yours. Jeremy Hunt is your man. Farage is your enemy.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    HYUFD said:

    Farage on the warpath over the Hunt statement

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1581963281014484993?s=20&t=vt6yvIHbw-er4jl_1lyN-g

    Farage is spot on about the IR35 rules – I rarely agree with him, but he's right on this point
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,925
    If the Conservatives can find themselves a leader who is both sane and competent, then I suppose we all ought at least to have another look at them.... in all fairness... and to encourage the others....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    Good grief:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/16/russian-troops-kill-ukrainian-musician-yuriy-kerpatenko-for-refusing-role-in-kherson-concert
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,433
    edited October 2022
    Anabobazina said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    JamesF said:


    So who will November's chancellor be? Back to Rishi again? Or someone exciting and new?

    Sam Allardyce is available.

    Big Sam Allardyce Chancellor
    Big Ron Atkinson Chief Secretary
    Big Bird from Sesame Street as Parliamentary Secretary
    Isn't Big Bird already Health Secretary?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065

    If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.

    And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.

    Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
    If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party,
    he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.

    The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
    Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    Benpointer said:

    Good grief:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/16/russian-troops-kill-ukrainian-musician-yuriy-kerpatenko-for-refusing-role-in-kherson-concert

    That's week old news.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,174
    edited October 2022
    Ffs


  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,933
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065

    If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.

    And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.

    Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
    If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party,
    he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.

    The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
    Have a ballot of Tory MPs using the Alternative Vote. The winner is PM any Tory MP not accepting this should lose the whip.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Interesting. Is she pushing Penny?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    Benpointer said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    Being churlish, those things only affect a small proportion of voters. But it's certainly only depress her numbers further.
    All small businesses. Now I could go down to the local cafe and ask the owner for her opinion but I don't want to get more depressed than I currently am.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    eek said:

    Benpointer said:

    Good grief:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/16/russian-troops-kill-ukrainian-musician-yuriy-kerpatenko-for-refusing-role-in-kherson-concert

    That's week old news.
    Ah, sorry - only just seen it. Bloody awful though.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Penny just needs to stand there and calmly follow the Hunt script and she boosts her chances of coming out of this mess with a decent promotion significantly.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    eek said:

    wooliedyed said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    That might well be counteracted by a stabilization relief rally. If she quits i imagine the numbers woulld improve a little but remain around 20 behind......
    I would imagine that for everyone happy with Truss going another is going to be annoyed by the changes that have been announced - looking at linkedIn I'm seeing a lot of very annoyed people.
    And most of them were already off team Tory. The under 55 vote was down to about 10% anyway. The current polling is partly meltdown and partly 'SORT YOURSELVES OUT!'
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,882
    From previous thread:
    TheValiant said:


    As you've already said, an extra tax free allowance for pensioners will sort that out.
    NI scrapped (Ers and Ees)
    Additional allowance of (say) 50% the PA for pensioners (so about £6k more).
    Income tax to 33%.
    A pensioner on £18k income will therefore pay NO tax.
    But a pensioner on £100k will pay quite a bit more. I'm crying, I really am. I'm sure £100k a year with no mortgage isn't enough to live on.......

    I suppose if you didn't want to be brave, you could retain Ers NIC, but scrapping it seems the best option in the longer term.

    And, wouldn't I be right in thinking this solves a lot of problems around IR35 (not that I understand it much)?
    The whole point of IR35 was around employed v self employed, as the self employed:
    1. Didn't pay NI (or at a much lower rate)
    2. Didn't pay monthly
    3. The employer saved Ers NIC

    If you scrap NI, then (1) and (3) go away, making it much less of an issue. Sure, you've got the cashflow problem still, but the benefits of being employed v self employed are far far narrower.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Casino_Royale said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Interesting. Is she pushing Penny?
    “Leader of the House” might be seen as a default “Prime Minister is busy washing her hair” choice, rather than a Minister with portfolio.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    ClippP said:

    If the Conservatives can find themselves a leader who is both sane and competent, then I suppose we all ought at least to have another look at them.... in all fairness... and to encourage the others....

    Of course. Handing Labour an enormous majority would be as dangerous as the mini budget
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,143
    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    As she has resigned Chas need not take her advice.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    What a pathetic little woman she is
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.

    There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1581991376379531266
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,433
    eek said:

    Benpointer said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    Being churlish, those things only affect a small proportion of voters. But it's certainly only depress her numbers further.
    All small businesses. Now I could go down to the local cafe and ask the owner for her opinion but I don't want to get more depressed than I currently am.
    Hold on a sec, I thought the small business support only lasted for six months anyway? It was the personal support that was pledged for two years, the business support was only ever pledged for six months I thought with a further review to happen between now and then?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    eek said:

    Benpointer said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    Being churlish, those things only affect a small proportion of voters. But it's certainly only depress her numbers further.
    All small businesses. Now I could go down to the local cafe and ask the owner for her opinion but I don't want to get more depressed than I currently am.
    Hold on a sec, I thought the small business support only lasted for six months anyway? It was the personal support that was pledged for two years, the business support was only ever pledged for six months I thought with a further review to happen between now and then?
    Correct.yes.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    Farage on the warpath over the Hunt statement

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1581963281014484993?s=20&t=vt6yvIHbw-er4jl_1lyN-g

    Who cares what he thinks?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Come on Penny. Now's your moment. Show them what they could've had instead of Truss.

    Cowardice from Truss. All the more reason for her to go.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,993
    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    There is a substantial problem if she falls on her sword in front of the Queen. Ordinarily the PM would be asked their opinion about a suitable successor. How can Truss answer that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    According to the MRP of the 16 seats where the Tories are projected to get above 45%, 5 of them are Lincolnshire. I think it's their best county now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    FPT:
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Gov source: "I don't see how she has the authority to govern. Whips are rendered pointless. But can't poss change leader AGAIN without going to the country. If we go to the country, I genuinely believe my as yet not conceived children will be at uni before we're in power again"
    https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1581982067071496193

    They can change leader again without going to the country immediately, but if they want to try and neutralise that attack line they need to pre-announce the date of the next GE (probably in May - autumn 2023).

    “Incumbent on us to give a period of stability / travel the country listening to the electorate and what they’d like our GE offering to be.”
    What is the point of changing leader now? After completely reversing nearly all Truss' tax cut plans and cutting the length of the energy support package, Hunt is now PM in all but name anyway.

    Never have I ever seen a PM become such a puppet of their Chancellor
    Do you want Liz Truss fronting the next PM debate at a general election? The Tories would start the campaign on x% and be x-10% by the time the campaign finished.
    Given Hunt has just cut energy bills support and scrapped the cut in the basic rate of income tax I doubt he will be greatly appealing to the average floating voter now either
    That is like blaming the cleaner for the vomit on the floor.

    You really don’t rate voters very highly, do you? The electorate is mature enough to understand why the mini-budget has been reversed, and if the Tories get punished it won’t be because they didn’t get the 19% tax rate.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,779
    RochdalePioneers said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    There is a substantial problem if she falls on her sword in front of the Queen. Ordinarily the PM would be asked their opinion about a suitable successor. How can Truss answer that?
    I know it's hard to get used to calling Charles the King but ...
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    wooliedyed said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    What a pathetic little woman she is
    Think Penny Mordaunt should have said that she was washing her hair.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    In the end, these people are not going to vote labour.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    edited October 2022
    rottenborough said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    As she has resigned Chas need not take her advice.

    No I think the two are linked - she resigns and recommends the next PM. KC has to follow her advice. That's the way it works.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Scott_xP said:



    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1581991376379531266

    Ian C*** has been posting the same expletive-filled bollocks for more than six years now. Why should he be taken any more seriously today?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,693
    Pulpstar said:

    According to the MRP of the 16 seats where the Tories are projected to get above 45%, 5 of them are Lincolnshire. I think it's their best county now.

    That doesn't make me happy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,095
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065

    If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.

    And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.

    Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
    If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party,
    he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.

    The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
    Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
    Stay as it is unless Wallace is the coronation candidate of a unity Cabinet, all other options are worse
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,755
    Penny Mordaunt now shorter than Starmer as Next PM.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,951
    edited October 2022
    RochdalePioneers said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    There is a substantial problem if she falls on her sword in front of the Queen. Ordinarily the PM would be asked their opinion about a suitable successor. How can Truss answer that?
    Don't call Charles a queen. He's more of a princess!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:



    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1581991376379531266

    Ian C*** has been posting the same expletive-filled bollocks for more than six years now. Why should he be taken any more seriously today?
    Because today it happens to be true? Which of his statements do you think is wrong?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065

    If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.

    And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.

    Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
    If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party,
    he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.

    The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
    If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.

    Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,733
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    I hope she's OK. This would be too much for most people.

    If she's not really functioning then the Tories need to make up their minds up *today*. Even if only for 6 months prior to a GE.

    They can have their internal warfare after that.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    edited October 2022
    RochdalePioneers said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    There is a substantial problem if she falls on her sword in front of the Queen. Ordinarily the PM would be asked their opinion about a suitable successor. How can Truss answer that?
    Truss killed the Queen back in September - remember she was the last person outside palace employees / family to see her alive and in the photo the Queen didn't look on death's door.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Pathetic from Truss. Where is she?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,993
    Mordaunt needs to do this:

    1 Calmly answer the question - the markets required a complete reversal on every point
    2 Refuse to provide any support at all towards the PM's position. A simple "I am here answering the urgent question on behalf of the government
    3 Say that is a constitutional requirement that we have a government and ministers at all times and that is her function today.

    Then sit down. She will be at least Home Secretary if not Foreign Secretary by Friday anyway. It would be stupid to expend any political capital in defence of someone who recently skewered her own ambitions.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    darkage said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    In the end, these people are not going to vote labour.
    Indeed. Labour will struggle to get the Xs above low to mid 40s the same way Blair did, they arent exactly cuddly rabbits
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    darkage said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    In the end, these people are not going to vote labour.
    Given that I'm one of those people - your assumption / statement is rather incorrect.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    eek said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    There is a substantial problem if she falls on her sword in front of the Queen. Ordinarily the PM would be asked their opinion about a suitable successor. How can Truss answer that?
    Truss killed the Queen back in September - remember she was the last person outside palace employees / family to see her alive and in the photo the Queen didn't look on death's door.
    I hope that was a poor attempt at sarcasm. For all Truss's faults that was not her doing. The lovely final photo of the Queen was only marred by the obvious bruising on her hand where she'd clearly been on some kind of drip.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Javid gets first question at PMQs this week:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1581993259756269569
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,462
    Scott_xP said:

    They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.

    There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1581991376379531266

    Mm, he's really sitting on the fence there.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,109
    edited October 2022
    Casino_Royale said:

    Penny Mordaunt now shorter than Starmer as Next PM.

    Can she stand on a box ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    CarlottaVance said:

    Javid gets first question at PMQs this week:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1581993259756269569

    What's he going to ask for ?

    Can I be November's Chancellor ?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,069
    Flatlander said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    I hope she's OK. This would be too much for most people.

    If she's not really functioning then the Tories need to make up their minds up *today*. Even if only for 6 months prior to a GE.

    They can have their internal warfare after that.
    I thought she performed well at Charles investiture ceremony. She went up in my estimation at least. I'd have been a gibbering wreck.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2022
    Just pointing out that the Tory leader doesn’t have to be PM, even of a Tory Govt…
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,462
    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Javid gets first question at PMQs this week:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1581993259756269569

    What's he going to ask for ?

    Can I be November's Chancellor ?
    So long as we don't get an Advent Calendar of Chancellors of the Exchequer.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    CarlottaVance said:

    Javid gets first question at PMQs this week:

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1581993259756269569

    Going for the political serial killer tag
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    HYUFD said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065

    If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.

    And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.

    Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
    If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party,
    he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.

    The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
    Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
    Stay as it is unless Wallace is the coronation candidate of a unity Cabinet, all other options are worse
    I remarked yesterday that Wallace could be bought forward as the only candidate that everyone in the tory party is happy with (MP's and members), and this is still true. But this is quite a frightening prospect, his popularity is based on the fact that he is a decent chap who has done sterling work in defence. We have no idea at all if he has the skills necessary to be PM. It does seem to me that the tory party need to decide if they are serious about being a party of government.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    edited October 2022
    Slackbladder said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Pathetic from Truss. Where is she?
    She’s tied up.

    Popcorn @ 3.30pm

    She’s sending Penny hoping it’ll be her and not the total humiliation of Hunt, who takes over.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,951
    AlistairM said:

    eek said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    There is a substantial problem if she falls on her sword in front of the Queen. Ordinarily the PM would be asked their opinion about a suitable successor. How can Truss answer that?
    Truss killed the Queen back in September - remember she was the last person outside palace employees / family to see her alive and in the photo the Queen didn't look on death's door.
    I hope that was a poor attempt at sarcasm. For all Truss's faults that was not her doing. The lovely final photo of the Queen was only marred by the obvious bruising on her hand where she'd clearly been on some kind of drip.
    As I recall HMQ was greeting "some kind of drip".
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,958
    Pulpstar said:

    According to the MRP of the 16 seats where the Tories are projected to get above 45%, 5 of them are Lincolnshire. I think it's their best county now.

    Midlands, Saxon Shore, Rural.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,228
    eek said:

    darkage said:

    eek said:

    FPT

    RochdalePioneers said:

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    In the end, these people are not going to vote labour.
    Given that I'm one of those people - your assumption / statement is rather incorrect.
    That kind of thinking was what created, in part, 1997.

    If Starmer can convince enough people that he is selling "New Labour Part Deux (minus Iraq)" - then the potential is there to get a higher share of the vote than Blair got.

    First time round, a lot of people didn't believe that New Labour would stay Social Democrat, but would swing left after a short time in office.

    True, you have the Corbyn thing. But he and his associates have been put back in their boxes.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    Flatlander said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    I hope she's OK. This would be too much for most people.

    If she's not really functioning then the Tories need to make up their minds up *today*. Even if only for 6 months prior to a GE.

    They can have their internal warfare after that.
    They need to put in place a team to stabilize, go to the country at some point in the next 12 months and hold 200 seats then kickback for 5 to 10 years and reinvent themselves whilst hoovering up local government
    Edit - they have a job to do as opposition, so they need to form a respectable one
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,046
    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:



    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1581991376379531266

    Ian C*** has been posting the same expletive-filled bollocks for more than six years now. Why should he be taken any more seriously today?
    Because today it happens to be true? Which of his statements do you think is wrong?
    Because the day he says anything remotely true, is at best on the stopped clock principle.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,011
    I knew she was shit but I wasn’t expecting my Truss out before conference 2023 bets to be winners before Christmas 2022.

    That special fiscal operation was the new Fall of Singapore of which shiteness is measured again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,228
    Benpointer said:

    Good grief:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/16/russian-troops-kill-ukrainian-musician-yuriy-kerpatenko-for-refusing-role-in-kherson-concert

    It's as if the Russians read up on the Rape of Belgium, both factual and fictional, and said "We can do better".
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,807
    DougSeal said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    There is a substantial problem if she falls on her sword in front of the Queen. Ordinarily the PM would be asked their opinion about a suitable successor. How can Truss answer that?
    Did you miss last month's biggest news story?
    Charles >> Carlotta?
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994
    IanB2 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Pathetic from Truss. Where is she?
    She’s tied up.

    Popcorn @ 3.30pm

    She’s sending Penny hoping it’ll be her and not the total humiliation of Hunt, who takes over.
    If PM does become PM - will the Conservatives boast about having had 4 women Prime Ministers?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,882
    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    That is why, these days, the PM doesn't resign to the Monarch. They agree to resign to the country (in a statement) but will stay on whilst the leadership campaign is run.
    A change without (even a short) leadership campaign hasn't happened since MacMillan handed over to Home.

    So she would be asked to stay on, and asked NOT to go to the Palace.
    If she did, somehow, go to the Palace anyway, there would indeed be a massive problem as she won't be prevented from resigning (can't really do that) but there would be no obvious successor to take her place.
    We could, in theory, survive constitutionally without a Prime Minister for several weeks or months (or in theory, indefinitely) but realistically someone would have to come forward pretty quick.

    There must be plans hidden away for what happens if the PM falls down a flight of stairs, who they appoint, but who that person is I've no idea.

    There was an alternative history story written many years ago about just this situation, located here:
    https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/i-cant-become-prime-minister-not-at-this-time-of-night.196319/

    But I don't think it was concluded.
    (Hint - Wilson dies suddenly in March '76 before announcing to resign. Ted Short takes over as interim whilst leadership campaign ran.)
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,188
    edited October 2022
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question.
    If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1581986564082520065

    If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.

    And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.

    Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
    If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party,...
    [snip!]
    Good. The sooner your party all starts sorting out its internal mess, the better it will be for the country.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,228
    rottenborough said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    As she has resigned Chas need not take her advice.

    At a guess, the King would ask for evidence that any candidate could command a majority in the house.

    Much as the Queen are it clear in the run up to the coalition, that she would make PM whoever could produce evidence they could command a majority.
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146
    Icarus said:

    IanB2 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Pathetic from Truss. Where is she?
    She’s tied up.

    Popcorn @ 3.30pm

    She’s sending Penny hoping it’ll be her and not the total humiliation of Hunt, who takes over.
    If PM does become PM - will the Conservatives boast about having had 4 women Prime Ministers?
    The tories should stop playing identity politics...they are not very good at it
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,003
    Icarus said:

    IanB2 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Pathetic from Truss. Where is she?
    She’s tied up.

    Popcorn @ 3.30pm

    She’s sending Penny hoping it’ll be her and not the total humiliation of Hunt, who takes over.
    If PM does become PM - will the Conservatives boast about having had 4 women Prime Ministers?
    3 in 3 years is less of a boast. But still good for the bantz!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,993
    Mexicanpete said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…

    Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…

    Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.

    What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)

    There is a substantial problem if she falls on her sword in front of the Queen. Ordinarily the PM would be asked their opinion about a suitable successor. How can Truss answer that?
    Don't call Charles a queen. He's more of a princess!
    Whoops - force of habit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    Icarus said:

    IanB2 said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Pathetic from Truss. Where is she?
    She’s tied up.

    Popcorn @ 3.30pm

    She’s sending Penny hoping it’ll be her and not the total humiliation of Hunt, who takes over.
    If PM does become PM - will the Conservatives boast about having had 4 women Prime Ministers?
    No idea, but there will be a groundswell in favour of Penny, the last credible Brexiter, now that Hunt has half a foot already in the door.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I knew she was shit but I wasn’t expecting my Truss out before conference 2023 bets to be winners before Christmas 2022.

    That special fiscal operation was the new Fall of Singapore of which shiteness is measured again.

    She is one of Cameron's A Listers. Positive discrimination in all it's glory.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,188
    edited October 2022
    Slackbladder said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Ffs


    Pathetic from Truss. Where is she?
    Perhaps she has already resigned and we have not just found out yet. "Blood on the carpet" stage of the crisis...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    So who is going to finish the job of driving Labour out of the red wall? Its only a matter of time till it does a Scotland.
    Paging Nigel.........
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,980
    Mrs C, I had a suspicion she might resign tomorrow. If so, she may think there's sod all point turning up today.
This discussion has been closed.