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Punters make it a 64% chance that Truss won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037


    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    4h
    Seriously though, Penny Mordaunt is very good at this isn't she

    Journos are bored with 'Keir looking like the PM in waiting', they are moving on to 'isnt Penny great?'
    Penny is great!

    She has my backing to be PM.
    The nation is relieved to know it
    She follows me on Twitter, she has impeccable judgment.

    It is my destiny to be her speechwriter.
    I mean all sorts of weirdos follow you on twitter. Me for one
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    edited October 2022
    ihunt said:

    nico679 said:

    Do Tory MPs seriously think it will make a blind bit of difference to the public if they unite behind Truss .

    The public have made up their minds .

    i honestly dont think tory mps have a clue what to do next....all options are bad
    The least bad option is removing Truss . Keeping her in post I suspect will see the anger grow amongst the public who will see the Tory MPs propping up the cause of a lot of their pain .
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    EPG said:

    Biden has some nerve criticising Truss's proposed mini-budget when his own fiscal incontinence helped to set off Fed rate hikes and global inflation.

    He probably cant even remember saying it
  • A few leadership campaign slogan suggestions::



    Have a punt on Hunt

    Taste fresh Coffey

    Penny for your votes

    Redwood not deadwood

    From 1936 : Vote Hogg to save your bacon
    Believe the year was 1938, and the slogan referred to Hogg's support for the Munich Agreement just "negotiated" by Neville Chamberlain

    from Hogg's wiki page:

    In 1938, Hogg was chosen as a candidate for Parliament in the Oxford by-election. This election took place shortly after the Munich Agreement and the Labour candidate Patrick Gordon Walker was persuaded to step down to allow a unified challenge to the Conservatives; A. D. Lindsay, the Master of Balliol College fought as an 'Independent Progressive' candidate. Hogg narrowly defeated Lindsay, who was said to be horrified by the popular slogan of "Hitler wants Hogg".

    Hogg voted against Neville Chamberlain in the Norway Debate of May 1940, and supported Winston Churchill. . . .
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    Jonathan said:


    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    4h
    Seriously though, Penny Mordaunt is very good at this isn't she

    Journos are bored with 'Keir looking like the PM in waiting', they are moving on to 'isnt Penny great?'
    Penny is great!

    She has my backing to be PM.
    Would you rather have her be PM now or LoO in 2024?

    BTW is there a good summary of todays' events? I was immersed in work. How did Hunt and co get on?
    A good chance she might not have a seat in 2024 the way things are going. If she’s going to do it, it’s going to be now IMHO.

    Let’s all get aboard the good ship Penny and watch as it sinks magnificently (for the Tories are doomed).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    It has to be Hunt, doesn’t it?

    Sunak is another spiv and was an indispensable enabler of Johnsonism.

    Mordaunt and Wallace are both essentially untested.

    I want the Tories out big-style, but this is what’s best for the country.

    Yes. As there isn't a route to a GE then two things are essential for the good of the country: A safe pair of hands as PM and ditto for CoE.

    Sunak has two problems: to the Tory members minds he betrayed Boris. To rational minds he stuck with Boris far too long after he was shown to be consistently amoral (six months too long at least). So as PM he is out of the running, as Truss would have always been to anyone moral and rational.

    So Hunt is the only real candidate for PM at this moment; Penny being not premier division material. Sunak back as CoE.

    No doubt other answers are available.

  • Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    You don't come back from a 36% national polling deficit in one parliament, probably not two, and quite possibly three.

    That's the scale of this armageddon into which the Conservative Government now stares.

    The Mail is not pulling punches. And I notice, er, they're not mentioning coalitions of chaos any more.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11324327/Liz-Truss-looks-Jeremy-Hunt-says-torch-mini-Budget-stability.html

    In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
    And your point?
    My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
    You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.

    Total delusion. It's a sea change.
    The Labour lead would quickly be halved in the event of a new PM taking over. There is a lot of froth in the current polls - indeed even were Truss to remain PM and call an immediate GE for late November the Tories would be unlikely to lose by 20%.
    You are kidding. If Truss attempts to fight an election campaign for the Tories now then they would poll in single figures.
    Not so - alas! Don't underestimate how much party support is tribal. Party loyalists would return home on Polling Day and set aside much of the anger now being felt. The Tories would be trounced - but the idea they would be reduced to fewer than 100 seats is 'for the birds'. Much the same was true of Labour under Corbyn in April 2017.
    What the 2017GE showed us is that a party can lose a lot of support during an election campaign if it's election campaign is crap.

    Most of the time this doesn't happen because most of the time both sides are at least reasonably competent.

    If Truss fights an election campaign over the next few weeks such an election campaign would be awful beyond compare.
    Labour had a disastrous campaign in 1983 - yet still ended up on 28.5% across GB. The Tory lead was 15.2% - rather than the 23%/24% leads predicted by pollsters at the end of that campaign. The Tory majority was 144 - rather than over 250.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Scott_xP said:

    What an absolute shambles. A struggle to take anything any of them say seriously. We have been humiliated on the world stage and pretty much every household is now worse off. This once proud nation deserves better.
    https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581979473473572865

    Oh, really?


    Little Miss Source-Shopper is a perennial embarrassment
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    eek said:

    FPT

    The wolves are circling the vultures:
    UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge"
    US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda"
    Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs
    A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are

    Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,

    If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.

    Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.

    Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
    Has it been confirmed that basically all the mini budget has been scrapped? That's appallingly bad politics from all. How very sad.
    You have it backwards - the appallingly bad politics was the mini-budget. This is the forced clean-up of the mess.
    What's messy about reforming IR35? Or not hiking corporation tax?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    edited October 2022

    Jonathan said:


    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    4h
    Seriously though, Penny Mordaunt is very good at this isn't she

    Journos are bored with 'Keir looking like the PM in waiting', they are moving on to 'isnt Penny great?'
    Penny is great!

    She has my backing to be PM.
    Would you rather have her be PM now or LoO in 2024?

    BTW is there a good summary of todays' events? I was immersed in work. How did Hunt and co get on?
    Penny handled a difficult hospital pass very well, Hunt is de facto Prime Minister.

    It also led to the greatest news alert notification ever.
    I was sent one from Sky News that you would like even more, but I hesitate to post it on here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    ydoethur said:

    A few leadership campaign slogan suggestions::



    Have a punt on Hunt

    Taste fresh Coffey

    Penny for your votes

    Redwood not deadwood

    Finally Ready for Rishi?
    Michael Green, now that’s what I mean!
    Shapps Slaps!
    Take a Punt on Hunt
    I like my Coffey Strong and (in the) Black
    Badenoch is Goodenough
    Nifty Chishti
    Ravers for Bravers
    Give Tom a Tug

    Less Grifty with Chishti ?
  • NEW THREAD

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Markets seem to have a massive continual boner for Sunak.

    Not sure why.

    He’s probably putting money on himself to try to generate the big mo.
    I'd win more off Hunt but objectively, Rishi is the more logical choice for the party, and indeed topped the MPs' section last time.
    If she falls as she will then logically the runner up candidate in a leadership election that happened only about 8 weeks ago should be leader.

    No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.

    He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.



    But everyone knows Mordaunt would have won had she made the final two.
    Them's the breaks.
    Nevertheless her claim, after today's performance, is stronger than Rishi's
    Opinion is divided.
    Maybe she was simply the first person to answer their phone when the panicky Tories found Truss slumped in her office, with an hour to go? But she did well, in what by any objective assessment was the political gig from hell.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    This thread has

    hidden under a desk

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    In terms of experience being LOTO is far more similar a skillset to being PM, than any amount of Cabinet time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Jonathan said:


    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    4h
    Seriously though, Penny Mordaunt is very good at this isn't she

    Journos are bored with 'Keir looking like the PM in waiting', they are moving on to 'isnt Penny great?'
    Penny is great!

    She has my backing to be PM.
    Would you rather have her be PM now or LoO in 2024?

    BTW is there a good summary of todays' events? I was immersed in work. How did Hunt and co get on?
    It's all in the previous thread
  • THIS THREAD IS DEADER THAN LIZ TRUSS'S POLITICAL CAREER
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    ihunt said:

    Farage called what has happened the last few weeks a globalist coup tonite

    The Chancellor and the PM announced policies that led to the deficit skyrocketing. Investors took fright, because bad shit often happens to countries where debt levels rise in perpetuity (see Greece, Japan, and even Italy).

    Investors are neither legally nor morally obligated to bankroll the government.

    What does Farage suggest? Laws that require people to buy British government bonds?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    ydoethur said:

    A few leadership campaign slogan suggestions::



    Have a punt on Hunt

    Taste fresh Coffey

    Penny for your votes

    Redwood not deadwood

    Finally Ready for Rishi?
    Michael Green, now that’s what I mean!
    Shapps Slaps!
    Take a Punt on Hunt
    I like my Coffey Strong and (in the) Black
    Badenoch is Goodenough
    Nifty Chishti
    Ravers for Bravers
    Give Tom a Tug

    Some good ones, but you can’t have Punt on Hunt - I grabbed that one earlier

    Mogg’s the dog’s…

    Berry nice

    It’s May’s day


    When things turn shitty, it's time for Priti.

    Chloe ain't showy.

    Give Bell a ring.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    26m
    Keep an eye on the way Jeremy Hunt was specifically talking up Rupert Harrison’s appointment to his new Economic Advisory Council. One MP says “people are missing the big picture. It’s not a Jeremy Hunt coup. It’s a George Osborne coup”.

    Not to mention a senior guy at Blackrock
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Jonathan said:


    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    4h
    Seriously though, Penny Mordaunt is very good at this isn't she

    Journos are bored with 'Keir looking like the PM in waiting', they are moving on to 'isnt Penny great?'
    Penny is great!

    She has my backing to be PM.
    Would you rather have her be PM now or LoO in 2024?

    BTW is there a good summary of todays' events? I was immersed in work. How did Hunt and co get on?
    Mordaunt didn't want to answer any questions; Hunt answered so many I lost the will to live.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:


    Rachel Cunliffe
    @RMCunliffe
    ·
    4h
    Seriously though, Penny Mordaunt is very good at this isn't she

    Journos are bored with 'Keir looking like the PM in waiting', they are moving on to 'isnt Penny great?'
    Penny is great!

    She has my backing to be PM.
    Would you rather have her be PM now or LoO in 2024?

    BTW is there a good summary of todays' events? I was immersed in work. How did Hunt and co get on?
    Mordaunt didn't want to answer any questions; Hunt answered so many I lost the will to live.
    Impressive from Hunt to be so up to speed and on top of brief in just matter of hours.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    Nigelb said:

    PaulSimon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*

    It will then become targeted and capped

    Govt helped by falling gas prices

    @MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning

    That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
    It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
    The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design.
    It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
    Fair point
    Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.

    The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
    Well come on then somebody, argue back.

    Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
    no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
    Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...

    The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.

    A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).

    So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.

    That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.

    Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
    “A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive ”

    Virtually pays for itself on its own or can be used as a blended approach.

    https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/A-Variable-Energy-Price-Cap.pdf

    Am I the one with needy bleatings. You are just too damn rude and ornery about politics Ben. I came by my doubts about it when reaction from charities for the needy to the energy price cap was they hated it, for all its massive expense it doesn’t protect the most in need enough, and that should be the whole point.

    A few weeks ago RCS shared adverts where the government were boasting about the immense scale the scheme costs, so it wasn’t “whimsical” how it happened - Team Truss genuinely went to be add night dreaming how every voter would love them for this policy.
    Ok.

    First, let me apologise for my rudeness; 'bleatings' was unkind.

    I would just say that you made two posts asking why no one had responded to your earlier post. I make lots of posts that I think deserve a response - most sink without trace. That's just the way it is.

    Secondly, re the NIESR paper. It sounds wonderful but unless I have missed something there is absolutely no explanation of how a variable price cap would be calculated. How do you determine my cap versus your cap? Individual income? Individual wealth? Household income/wealth? Do you factor in the size of the household? How many children? How many vulnerable adults - old, disabled, ill?

    It's either going to be very crude or very complicated and expensive.
    “I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings”

    I don’t fill the place with needful attention seeking bleatings do I? I don’t think that is the reason for my contributions. I don’t have a need to be here.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    The Conservatives are in mess. The 81,326 members who voted for Liz Truss know they were fooled, but 60,399 can happily say they were right to vote for Rishi Sunak. If the MPs give them anyone other than Rishi to be crowned they will be justified in crying foul.

    The wider electorate will not forgive Truss for this mess and there will be no scope for tax cuts before the end of 2024 -the latest date to call the election. The sooner they put Rishi in as PM the sooner they will be able to start to rebuild but would he lose some substantial bits of the membership and electorate to Farage or the Stay at Home party.
This discussion has been closed.