Do Tory MPs seriously think it will make a blind bit of difference to the public if they unite behind Truss .
The public have made up their minds .
i honestly dont think tory mps have a clue what to do next....all options are bad
The least bad option is removing Truss . Keeping her in post I suspect will see the anger grow amongst the public who will see the Tory MPs propping up the cause of a lot of their pain .
Believe the year was 1938, and the slogan referred to Hogg's support for the Munich Agreement just "negotiated" by Neville Chamberlain
from Hogg's wiki page:
In 1938, Hogg was chosen as a candidate for Parliament in the Oxford by-election. This election took place shortly after the Munich Agreement and the Labour candidate Patrick Gordon Walker was persuaded to step down to allow a unified challenge to the Conservatives; A. D. Lindsay, the Master of Balliol College fought as an 'Independent Progressive' candidate. Hogg narrowly defeated Lindsay, who was said to be horrified by the popular slogan of "Hitler wants Hogg".
Hogg voted against Neville Chamberlain in the Norway Debate of May 1940, and supported Winston Churchill. . . .
Sunak is another spiv and was an indispensable enabler of Johnsonism.
Mordaunt and Wallace are both essentially untested.
I want the Tories out big-style, but this is what’s best for the country.
Yes. As there isn't a route to a GE then two things are essential for the good of the country: A safe pair of hands as PM and ditto for CoE.
Sunak has two problems: to the Tory members minds he betrayed Boris. To rational minds he stuck with Boris far too long after he was shown to be consistently amoral (six months too long at least). So as PM he is out of the running, as Truss would have always been to anyone moral and rational.
So Hunt is the only real candidate for PM at this moment; Penny being not premier division material. Sunak back as CoE.
In the 1992 Parliament Labour did enjoy Gallup poll leads in excess of 40% in 1994 & 1995. It won the 1997 GE by 13%.
And your point?
My point is that in a GE likely to be two years away Labour's lead could still fall back to less than 10%.
You are utterly deluded. See my post below about just how much worse the economic situation is than during 1992-7.
Total delusion. It's a sea change.
The Labour lead would quickly be halved in the event of a new PM taking over. There is a lot of froth in the current polls - indeed even were Truss to remain PM and call an immediate GE for late November the Tories would be unlikely to lose by 20%.
You are kidding. If Truss attempts to fight an election campaign for the Tories now then they would poll in single figures.
Not so - alas! Don't underestimate how much party support is tribal. Party loyalists would return home on Polling Day and set aside much of the anger now being felt. The Tories would be trounced - but the idea they would be reduced to fewer than 100 seats is 'for the birds'. Much the same was true of Labour under Corbyn in April 2017.
What the 2017GE showed us is that a party can lose a lot of support during an election campaign if it's election campaign is crap.
Most of the time this doesn't happen because most of the time both sides are at least reasonably competent.
If Truss fights an election campaign over the next few weeks such an election campaign would be awful beyond compare.
Labour had a disastrous campaign in 1983 - yet still ended up on 28.5% across GB. The Tory lead was 15.2% - rather than the 23%/24% leads predicted by pollsters at the end of that campaign. The Tory majority was 144 - rather than over 250.
What an absolute shambles. A struggle to take anything any of them say seriously. We have been humiliated on the world stage and pretty much every household is now worse off. This once proud nation deserves better. https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1581979473473572865
Oh, really?
Little Miss Source-Shopper is a perennial embarrassment
The wolves are circling the vultures: UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge" US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda" Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are
Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,
If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.
Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.
Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
Has it been confirmed that basically all the mini budget has been scrapped? That's appallingly bad politics from all. How very sad.
You have it backwards - the appallingly bad politics was the mini-budget. This is the forced clean-up of the mess.
What's messy about reforming IR35? Or not hiking corporation tax?
Markets seem to have a massive continual boner for Sunak.
Not sure why.
He’s probably putting money on himself to try to generate the big mo.
I'd win more off Hunt but objectively, Rishi is the more logical choice for the party, and indeed topped the MPs' section last time.
If she falls as she will then logically the runner up candidate in a leadership election that happened only about 8 weeks ago should be leader.
No idea why this is so hard for the party to be honest.
He's the only one with a mandate which he gained by coming 2nd in the leadership race.
But everyone knows Mordaunt would have won had she made the final two.
Them's the breaks.
Nevertheless her claim, after today's performance, is stronger than Rishi's
Opinion is divided.
Maybe she was simply the first person to answer their phone when the panicky Tories found Truss slumped in her office, with an hour to go? But she did well, in what by any objective assessment was the political gig from hell.
Farage called what has happened the last few weeks a globalist coup tonite
The Chancellor and the PM announced policies that led to the deficit skyrocketing. Investors took fright, because bad shit often happens to countries where debt levels rise in perpetuity (see Greece, Japan, and even Italy).
Investors are neither legally nor morally obligated to bankroll the government.
What does Farage suggest? Laws that require people to buy British government bonds?
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 26m Keep an eye on the way Jeremy Hunt was specifically talking up Rupert Harrison’s appointment to his new Economic Advisory Council. One MP says “people are missing the big picture. It’s not a Jeremy Hunt coup. It’s a George Osborne coup”.
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design. It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
Fair point
Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.
The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
Well come on then somebody, argue back.
Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...
The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.
A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).
So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.
That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.
Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
“A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive ”
Virtually pays for itself on its own or can be used as a blended approach.
Am I the one with needy bleatings. You are just too damn rude and ornery about politics Ben. I came by my doubts about it when reaction from charities for the needy to the energy price cap was they hated it, for all its massive expense it doesn’t protect the most in need enough, and that should be the whole point.
A few weeks ago RCS shared adverts where the government were boasting about the immense scale the scheme costs, so it wasn’t “whimsical” how it happened - Team Truss genuinely went to be add night dreaming how every voter would love them for this policy.
Ok.
First, let me apologise for my rudeness; 'bleatings' was unkind.
I would just say that you made two posts asking why no one had responded to your earlier post. I make lots of posts that I think deserve a response - most sink without trace. That's just the way it is.
Secondly, re the NIESR paper. It sounds wonderful but unless I have missed something there is absolutely no explanation of how a variable price cap would be calculated. How do you determine my cap versus your cap? Individual income? Individual wealth? Household income/wealth? Do you factor in the size of the household? How many children? How many vulnerable adults - old, disabled, ill?
It's either going to be very crude or very complicated and expensive.
“I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings”
I don’t fill the place with needful attention seeking bleatings do I? I don’t think that is the reason for my contributions. I don’t have a need to be here.
The Conservatives are in mess. The 81,326 members who voted for Liz Truss know they were fooled, but 60,399 can happily say they were right to vote for Rishi Sunak. If the MPs give them anyone other than Rishi to be crowned they will be justified in crying foul.
The wider electorate will not forgive Truss for this mess and there will be no scope for tax cuts before the end of 2024 -the latest date to call the election. The sooner they put Rishi in as PM the sooner they will be able to start to rebuild but would he lose some substantial bits of the membership and electorate to Farage or the Stay at Home party.
Comments
from Hogg's wiki page:
In 1938, Hogg was chosen as a candidate for Parliament in the Oxford by-election. This election took place shortly after the Munich Agreement and the Labour candidate Patrick Gordon Walker was persuaded to step down to allow a unified challenge to the Conservatives; A. D. Lindsay, the Master of Balliol College fought as an 'Independent Progressive' candidate. Hogg narrowly defeated Lindsay, who was said to be horrified by the popular slogan of "Hitler wants Hogg".
Hogg voted against Neville Chamberlain in the Norway Debate of May 1940, and supported Winston Churchill. . . .
Let’s all get aboard the good ship Penny and watch as it sinks magnificently (for the Tories are doomed).
Sunak has two problems: to the Tory members minds he betrayed Boris. To rational minds he stuck with Boris far too long after he was shown to be consistently amoral (six months too long at least). So as PM he is out of the running, as Truss would have always been to anyone moral and rational.
So Hunt is the only real candidate for PM at this moment; Penny being not premier division material. Sunak back as CoE.
No doubt other answers are available.
NEW THREAD
hidden under a desk
Investors are neither legally nor morally obligated to bankroll the government.
What does Farage suggest? Laws that require people to buy British government bonds?
Chloe ain't showy.
Give Bell a ring.
I don’t fill the place with needful attention seeking bleatings do I? I don’t think that is the reason for my contributions. I don’t have a need to be here.
The wider electorate will not forgive Truss for this mess and there will be no scope for tax cuts before the end of 2024 -the latest date to call the election. The sooner they put Rishi in as PM the sooner they will be able to start to rebuild but would he lose some substantial bits of the membership and electorate to Farage or the Stay at Home party.