Hate to say it but I actually really wouldn’t be surprised if she is being kept away from things deliberately now because it is all too much.
I think she and her team will be spending the next day or so desperately working out how she extracts herself from office. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone deputises for her at PMQs.
Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…
Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…
Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.
What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)
That is why, these days, the PM doesn't resign to the Monarch. They agree to resign to the country (in a statement) but will stay on whilst the leadership campaign is run. A change without (even a short) leadership campaign hasn't happened since MacMillan handed over to Home.
So she would be asked to stay on, and asked NOT to go to the Palace. If she did, somehow, go to the Palace anyway, there would indeed be a massive problem as she won't be prevented from resigning (can't really do that) but there would be no obvious successor to take her place. We could, in theory, survive constitutionally without a Prime Minister for several weeks or months (or in theory, indefinitely) but realistically someone would have to come forward pretty quick.
There must be plans hidden away for what happens if the PM falls down a flight of stairs, who they appoint, but who that person is I've no idea.
But I don't think it was concluded. (Hint - Wilson dies suddenly in March '76 before announcing to resign. Ted Short takes over as interim whilst leadership campaign ran.)
The wolves are circling the vultures: UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge" US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda" Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are
Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,
If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.
Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.
Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
In the end, these people are not going to vote labour.
Given that I'm one of those people - your assumption / statement is rather incorrect.
That kind of thinking was what created, in part, 1997.
If Starmer can convince enough people that he is selling "New Labour Part Deux (minus Iraq)" - then the potential is there to get a higher share of the vote than Blair got.
First time round, a lot of people didn't believe that New Labour would stay Social Democrat, but would swing left after a short time in office.
True, you have the Corbyn thing. But he and his associates have been put back in their boxes.
For me it's very simple - the Tories are no longer in a position to change things, have refused to make any effort to fix things that need to be fixed (employment law is a biggy there) and there are a lot of things that need fixing which only a Labour Government could perform.
Hence time to give Labour a chance and provided they at least start the massive list of items probably a second chance in 2027/9.
I feel rather sorry for Truss. I hope she has someone to support her, and that she gets out sooner rather than later.
Yes, she is going to be remembered as literally one of the greatest political failures in modern history, on a global scale. That's going to be a heavy burden.
Gov source: "I don't see how she has the authority to govern. Whips are rendered pointless. But can't poss change leader AGAIN without going to the country. If we go to the country, I genuinely believe my as yet not conceived children will be at uni before we're in power again" https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1581982067071496193
They can change leader again without going to the country immediately, but if they want to try and neutralise that attack line they need to pre-announce the date of the next GE (probably in May - autumn 2023).
“Incumbent on us to give a period of stability / travel the country listening to the electorate and what they’d like our GE offering to be.”
What is the point of changing leader now? After completely reversing nearly all Truss' tax cut plans and cutting the length of the energy support package, Hunt is now PM in all but name anyway.
Never have I ever seen a PM become such a puppet of their Chancellor
Do you want Liz Truss fronting the next PM debate at a general election? The Tories would start the campaign on x% and be x-10% by the time the campaign finished.
Given Hunt has just cut energy bills support and scrapped the cut in the basic rate of income tax I doubt he will be greatly appealing to the average floating voter now either
That is like blaming the cleaner for the vomit on the floor.
You really don’t rate voters very highly, do you? The electorate is mature enough to understand why the mini-budget has been reversed, and if the Tories get punished it won’t be because they didn’t get the 19% tax rate.
In the last few days that poster has completely lost the plot - reminds me of the DR Who movies when the Daleks start to malfunction.
Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…
Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…
Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.
What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)
That is why, these days, the PM doesn't resign to the Monarch. They agree to resign to the country (in a statement) but will stay on whilst the leadership campaign is run. A change without (even a short) leadership campaign hasn't happened since MacMillan handed over to Home.
So she would be asked to stay on, and asked NOT to go to the Palace. If she did, somehow, go to the Palace anyway, there would indeed be a massive problem as she won't be prevented from resigning (can't really do that) but there would be no obvious successor to take her place. We could, in theory, survive constitutionally without a Prime Minister for several weeks or months (or in theory, indefinitely) but realistically someone would have to come forward pretty quick.
There must be plans hidden away for what happens if the PM falls down a flight of stairs, who they appoint, but who that person is I've no idea.
But I don't think it was concluded. (Hint - Wilson dies suddenly in March '76 before announcing to resign. Ted Short takes over as interim whilst leadership campaign ran.)
the last thing we want now is another leadership election with Tory party members having a say - although Labour would love to be up against the end result..
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
Stay as it is unless Wallace is the coronation candidate of a unity Cabinet, all other options are worse
I remarked yesterday that Wallace could be bought forward as the only candidate that everyone in the tory party is happy with (MP's and members), and this is still true. But this is quite a frightening prospect, his popularity is based on the fact that he is a decent chap who has done sterling work in defence. We have no idea at all if he has the skills necessary to be PM. It does seem to me that the tory party need to decide if they are serious about being a party of government.
He is competent and fine, he could keep Hunt as Chancellor, have Sunak as Foreign Secretary and Braverman at Home.
All other options lead to all out civil war and likely destroy the government. That battle needs to wait until opposition
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
She’s sending Penny hoping it’ll be her and not the total humiliation of Hunt, who takes over.
If PM does become PM - will the Conservatives boast about having had 4 women Prime Ministers?
3 in 3 years is less of a boast. But still good for the bantz!
Elizabeth II had 15 Prime Ministers over a 70 year period. Charles will want to break that record. At the rate things are going, he might do it by Christmas....
So who is going to finish the job of driving Labour out of the red wall? Its only a matter of time till it does a Scotland. Paging Nigel.........
More like Nigel gifts it to Labour by splitting the Tory vote further
He isn't splitting the Tory vote. Tories don't get first refusal on votes not going to the Labour Party - particularly votes of those who had never voted Tory before anyway. And it's just as true to say that the Tories are splitting the Nigel vote.
I feel rather sorry for Truss. I hope she has someone to support her, and that she gets out sooner rather than later.
Yes, she is going to be remembered as literally one of the greatest political failures in modern history, on a global scale. That's going to be a heavy burden.
Also not a sparkling moneyed future on the after-dinner speaker tours, I'd imagine.
Gov source: "I don't see how she has the authority to govern. Whips are rendered pointless. But can't poss change leader AGAIN without going to the country. If we go to the country, I genuinely believe my as yet not conceived children will be at uni before we're in power again" https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1581982067071496193
They can change leader again without going to the country immediately, but if they want to try and neutralise that attack line they need to pre-announce the date of the next GE (probably in May - autumn 2023).
“Incumbent on us to give a period of stability / travel the country listening to the electorate and what they’d like our GE offering to be.”
What is the point of changing leader now? After completely reversing nearly all Truss' tax cut plans and cutting the length of the energy support package, Hunt is now PM in all but name anyway.
Never have I ever seen a PM become such a puppet of their Chancellor
Do you want Liz Truss fronting the next PM debate at a general election? The Tories would start the campaign on x% and be x-10% by the time the campaign finished.
Given Hunt has just cut energy bills support and scrapped the cut in the basic rate of income tax I doubt he will be greatly appealing to the average floating voter now either
That is like blaming the cleaner for the vomit on the floor.
You really don’t rate voters very highly, do you? The electorate is mature enough to understand why the mini-budget has been reversed, and if the Tories get punished it won’t be because they didn’t get the 19% tax rate.
In the last few days that poster has completely lost the plot - reminds me of the DR Who movies when the Daleks start to malfunction.
It's my opinion that Hunt has taken the position that all the measures, apart from the energy subsidy have to be abandoned and a budget written from scratch.
Might well have been a condition for taking the job.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 3m Ex + serving ministers spinning this morn that they are not detecting appetite for Brady to change rules yet.
Point to large parts of voluntary party, already in uproar about knifing of BoJo, who will not wear their reluctant choice of replacement being booted out and replaced.
The wolves are circling the vultures: UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge" US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda" Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are
Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,
If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.
Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.
Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
Has it been confirmed that basically all the mini budget has been scrapped? That's appallingly bad politics from all. How very sad.
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
I agree to an extent but past experience (the economy circa 1994-1997) suggests that even a booming economy doesn't rescue a Government's reputation for economic competence once it's been comprehensively trashed.
So who is going to finish the job of driving Labour out of the red wall? Its only a matter of time till it does a Scotland. Paging Nigel.........
More like Nigel gifts it to Labour by splitting the Tory vote further
That is more than likely correct, but over the last 48 hours you have returned South East England, East Anglia, the South Coast, the South West, the South Midlands and the Welsh Marches back to the Conservatives. For you, that should seem like an awesome quid- pro-quo.
I feel rather sorry for Truss. I hope she has someone to support her, and that she gets out sooner rather than later.
Yes, she is going to be remembered as literally one of the greatest political failures in modern history, on a global scale. That's going to be a heavy burden.
I once saw Gerald Ratner give an after-dinner speech on what not to do. He seemed to be quite happy and clearly doing well from the speech circuit.
If Truss can develop a comedic style then she could do very well out of speeches on what not to do.
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
Best of luck with that.
I want the Conservatives gone as much as anyone, but I recall my own statement many years ago which seemed rather apt at the time.
In Bootle, everyone hates the Labour party and will never vote for them again.... except on General Election day.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
The wolves are circling the vultures: UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge" US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda" Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are
Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,
If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.
Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.
Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
Has it been confirmed that basically all the mini budget has been scrapped? That's appallingly bad politics from all. How very sad.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
I’m starting to detect that you might actually be quite enjoying the prospect of a Farage-led Party HYUFD.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
Stay as it is unless Wallace is the coronation candidate of a unity Cabinet, all other options are worse
I remarked yesterday that Wallace could be bought forward as the only candidate that everyone in the tory party is happy with (MP's and members), and this is still true. But this is quite a frightening prospect, his popularity is based on the fact that he is a decent chap who has done sterling work in defence. We have no idea at all if he has the skills necessary to be PM. It does seem to me that the tory party need to decide if they are serious about being a party of government.
He is competent and fine, he could keep Hunt as Chancellor, have Sunak as Foreign Secretary and Braverman at Home.
All other options lead to all out civil war and likely destroy the government. That battle needs to wait until opposition
Perhaps it could work if he is a ceremonial PM to placate the tory party, whilst Hunt runs everything. Sort of like how things are now with Truss, but without the obvious problems associated with Liz Truss.
So who is going to finish the job of driving Labour out of the red wall? Its only a matter of time till it does a Scotland. Paging Nigel.........
Good riddance! If Labour want to become a unifying Party of the centre left it should rid itself of those hangers floggers and racists and leave them to Farage where they belong
The wolves are circling the vultures: UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge" US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda" Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are
Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,
If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.
Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.
Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
Has it been confirmed that basically all the mini budget has been scrapped? That's appallingly bad politics from all. How very sad.
You have it backwards - the appallingly bad politics was the mini-budget. This is the forced clean-up of the mess.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
I’m starting to detect that you might actually be quite enjoying the prospect of a Farage-led Party HYUFD.
Have HY and Nigel ever been seen together in the same room...?
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
“Flat footed”
Does flat footedness, policy vacuum actually matter though? Labour are going to get away with their support for Truss energy plan. They will say “our plan was always only for six months, to review and continue a more up to date approach.”
And with that one sentence they are going to get off Scot-free 👿
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
Best of luck with that.
He’s probably right that it’s the best hope. But only because of the other choices.
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
I agree to an extent but past experience (the economy circa 1994-1997) suggests that even a booming economy doesn't rescue a Government's reputation for economic competence once it's been comprehensively trashed.
Makes sense, really. After all, if the economy goes well from here, it will be because the gnomes of wherever they now reside stopped the government doing what it wanted, not thanks to government policy.
And whilst things are set to go better, there's a big gap between that and things going well.
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
Best of luck with that.
I want the Conservatives gone as much as anyone, but I recall my own statement many years ago which seemed rather apt at the time.
In Bootle, everyone hates the Labour party and will never vote for them again.... except on General Election day.
Yeah, I agree with this, which is why I find those electoral calculus predictions of Tories on tiny seat numbers deeply improbable.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
Sorry, but as you were/are an apologist for the populists who have possibly destroyed the Conservative Party, we all have to accept that your judgement is about as useful as a Kwasi Kwarteng in a monetary crisis
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
I agree to an extent but past experience (the economy circa 1994-1997) suggests that even a booming economy doesn't rescue a Government's reputation for economic competence once it's been comprehensively trashed.
"That was the previous Government. Nothing to do with us."
Which wouldn't be far off.
We have seen ridiculous swings in the past few years. Wouldn't be choosing the wallpaper yet if I were Starmer. He might yet get out-dulled in the dullness stakes.
I feel rather sorry for Truss. I hope she has someone to support her, and that she gets out sooner rather than later.
Yes, she is going to be remembered as literally one of the greatest political failures in modern history, on a global scale. That's going to be a heavy burden.
I once saw Gerald Ratner give an after-dinner speech on what not to do. He seemed to be quite happy and clearly doing well from the speech circuit.
If Truss can develop a comedic style then she could do very well out of speeches on what not to do.
She could do TED talks on how to bounce back from failure.
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
Best of luck with that.
I want the Conservatives gone as much as anyone, but I recall my own statement many years ago which seemed rather apt at the time.
In Bootle, everyone hates the Labour party and will never vote for them again.... except on General Election day.
Yeah, I agree with this, which is why I find those electoral calculus predictions of Tories on tiny seat numbers deeply improbable.
The problem is that all models fall apart when you get to the extremes.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 3m Ex + serving ministers spinning this morn that they are not detecting appetite for Brady to change rules yet.
Point to large parts of voluntary party, already in uproar about knifing of BoJo, who will not wear their reluctant choice of replacement being booted out and replaced.
If Ms Truss is having a breakdown (another reason for her possible absence) then she has to be replaced anyway.
I feel rather sorry for Truss. I hope she has someone to support her, and that she gets out sooner rather than later.
Yes, she is going to be remembered as literally one of the greatest political failures in modern history, on a global scale. That's going to be a heavy burden.
I once saw Gerald Ratner give an after-dinner speech on what not to do. He seemed to be quite happy and clearly doing well from the speech circuit.
If Truss can develop a comedic style then she could do very well out of speeches on what not to do.
I’m a great believer that when you have faced significant adversity, loss or embarrassment, being able to laugh about it is eventually where you have to aim.
You can’t be proud about these things. You have to first accept them and finally see the funny side of them. I am not saying that process is easy, and there are stages to go through first.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 3m Ex + serving ministers spinning this morn that they are not detecting appetite for Brady to change rules yet.
Point to large parts of voluntary party, already in uproar about knifing of BoJo, who will not wear their reluctant choice of replacement being booted out and replaced.
Fuck 'em. They are clearly shit at doing politics.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
Sorry, but as you were/are an apologist for the populists who have possibly destroyed the Conservative Party, we all have to accept that your judgement is about as useful as a Kwasi Kwarteng in a monetary crisis
Given you did not vote for Boris when he won a landslide majority in Dec 2019 and given the Brexit Party were leading the May Tories in polls in early 2019 we also know your judgement is clueless on this
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design. It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
Fair point
Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.
The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
Well come on then somebody, argue back.
Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
So who is going to finish the job of driving Labour out of the red wall? Its only a matter of time till it does a Scotland. Paging Nigel.........
Good riddance! If Labour want to become a unifying Party of the centre left it should rid itself of those hangers floggers and racists and leave them to Farage where they belong
The wolves are circling the vultures: UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge" US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda" Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are
Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,
If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.
Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.
Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
Has it been confirmed that basically all the mini budget has been scrapped? That's appallingly bad politics from all. How very sad.
Liz should have sought your expert advice. If Kwasi had just *believed* in the mini-budget a bit more, we'd all be OK.
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Mrs C, I had a suspicion she might resign tomorrow. If so, she may think there's sod all point turning up today.
This is my view too.
Great to see a grown-up back in charge of government in the form of Jeremy Hunt. He would also make an excellent PM. Hopefully it might make a lot of the swivel-eyed nutjobs that are members of the Conservative Party quit.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
1 year bond yields fallen by a whopping 74bp, our people are still doing their numbers but other City forecasts seem to say interest rates a year from now will top out at 4.5-4.75% rather than 5.75-6%, that alone is going to cut tens of billions off the debt interest bill and hopefully thousands saved for mortgage holders.
Another reason why this was announced today rather than have the chancellor wait is because there's something like £25bn worth of bond sales scheduled this week, selling it at ca. 4.5% yield vs 3.5% yield is an instant saving of ca £4bn with our average bond maturity. For the past three weeks we've been accruing high yield debt for absolutely no gain.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 3m Ex + serving ministers spinning this morn that they are not detecting appetite for Brady to change rules yet.
Point to large parts of voluntary party, already in uproar about knifing of BoJo, who will not wear their reluctant choice of replacement being booted out and replaced.
Fuck 'em. They are clearly shit at doing politics.
Keep Liz in post for two years then best case it's game over for a generation, worst case the party is done.
The wolves are circling the vultures: UQ this afternoon - To ask the Prime Minister who is in charge" US from the Chancellor - "why I have demolished the Prime Minister and her agenda" Cabinet resignations expected before PMQs A Redfield Wilson poll due at 5pm of such pants-shitting excitement that we can only imagine what the numbers are
Meanwhile, secluded in the Naval Academy, Reichsprasident Truss continues to make grand plans for the reconstruction of the nation after the economic war, defiantly insisting that she is still in charge,
If you think the poll due at 5pm looks bad imagine what it looks were you polling now.
Contractors have lost the IR35 reform, Small businesses have lost energy price certainty (and probably any offers once companies work out what to do) and dividend tax is remaining at 8.75% even though the connected NI changes have been reversed.
Until today Truss had the support of some small business, now looking at my linkedIn and twitter feeds I'm not so sure.
In the end, these people are not going to vote labour.
Given that I'm one of those people - your assumption / statement is rather incorrect.
Not so long ago we on here tended to regard 30% as being the bedrock of Conservative support. Goodness knows what it is now.
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
Best of luck with that.
I want the Conservatives gone as much as anyone, but I recall my own statement many years ago which seemed rather apt at the time.
In Bootle, everyone hates the Labour party and will never vote for them again.... except on General Election day.
I remember in the early 2000s, at points when it looked like Dirty Leeds were genuinely going under, wishing their demise but then realising that a re-formed club, supported by the most hardcore Leeds fans could rip their way through the non-league policing budgets and I just couldn't wish that on Guiseley or Farsley.
The problem, even now at their fruitloopiest moment, with getting rid of the Tory party is what might replace them and how that could rip through politics.
In summary, the Tory party are the Leeds United of political parties.
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
I knew she was shit but I wasn’t expecting my Truss out before conference 2023 bets to be winners before Christmas 2022.
That special fiscal operation was the new Fall of Singapore of which shiteness is measured again.
She is one of Cameron's A Listers. Positive discrimination in all it's glory.
Perhaps they had more than 26 lists and, after Z, lacked imagination so went back to A? Or were using an Excel spreadsheet to organise potential candidates and someone confused AA for A?
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
I commend your optimism to the House.
Good luck with the increased mortgage rates, the foreclosures, the cumulative inflation, balance of trade issues and the austerity package. Even against the hopeless and hapless Starmer you have a tall order ahead of you.
Crushing Putin, or a war with Argentina is your bet hope. But never say never.
1 year bond yields fallen by a whopping 74bp, our people are still doing their numbers but other City forecasts seem to say interest rates a year from now will top out at 4.5-4.75% rather than 5.75-6%, that alone is going to cut tens of billions off the debt interest bill and hopefully thousands saved for mortgage holders.
Looks like Hunt's severe medicine might just have done the trick.
1 year bond yields fallen by a whopping 74bp, our people are still doing their numbers but other City forecasts seem to say interest rates a year from now will top out at 4.5-4.75% rather than 5.75-6%, that alone is going to cut tens of billions off the debt interest bill and hopefully thousands saved for mortgage holders.
Jeremy Hunt, the unlikely saviour of the Tory Party. *sarcasm*
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
I hope you’re right as I want them gone and utterly humiliated at the next GE .
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
I'm afraid nostalgia is getting the best of you. It's a sign of getting old, I believe.
Serious question. How far in advance do the energy producers buy gas?
Or is there another mechanism by which the current price of gas for delivery in e.g. November, affects the current gas price on the market? (e.g if the marginal cost of production were small, those who bought in advance would be forced to lower prices to match new entrants).
In other words, if we want to know how much the energy cap will cost, which gas price should we be focussing on?
1 year bond yields fallen by a whopping 74bp, our people are still doing their numbers but other City forecasts seem to say interest rates a year from now will top out at 4.5-4.75% rather than 5.75-6%, that alone is going to cut tens of billions off the debt interest bill and hopefully thousands saved for mortgage holders.
Saved? Your interest charges will still be more than double what they are now! Just like the energy bills have doubled and the Conservatives are saying "well it could have been worse"!
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
1 year bond yields fallen by a whopping 74bp, our people are still doing their numbers but other City forecasts seem to say interest rates a year from now will top out at 4.5-4.75% rather than 5.75-6%, that alone is going to cut tens of billions off the debt interest bill and hopefully thousands saved for mortgage holders.
Another reason why this was announced today rather than have the chancellor wait is because there's something like £25bn worth of bond sales scheduled this week, selling it at ca. 4.5% yield vs 3.5% yield is an instant saving of ca £4bn with our average bond maturity. For the past three weeks we've been accruing high yield debt for absolutely no gain.
Yes but that has nothing to do with the fiscal plans and all to do with the BoE or something else.
All the Farage talk seems to forget a couple or three things; firstly he is one of the most unpopular politicians of all time. He has his adoring crowd, but beyond that he is very widely disliked (not even 'polarising', which implies an even split of opinion - a clear majority on any polling dislike and distrust him), and even a lot of the people who have voted for his parties in the past are probably coming round to seeing him for the grifter he is.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
Richard Tice runs Reform UK, Hamilton has the pitiful Kipper remnants
Just pointing out that the Tory leader doesn’t have to be PM, even of a Tory Govt…
Just out of curiosity, does the prime minister have to be still living?
If not, perhaps the Tories would be able to agree on someone.
ABBA have managed to have a whole concert tour based on holograms of themselves. Perhaps we could have hologram Maggie running the country?
I was thinking of Winston actually. I think he'd be pretty good on the Ukraine situation.
Come to think of it, it could catch on. Imagine a G7 meeting featuring Winston Churchill, Abraham Lincoln, Napoleon, Julius Caesar ... I may have to get back to on some of the others ...
All the Farage talk seems to forget a couple or three things; firstly he is one of the most unpopular politicians of all time. He has his adoring crowd, but beyond that he is very widely disliked (not even 'polarising', which implies an even split of opinion - a clear majority on any polling dislike and distrust him), and even a lot of the people who have voted for his parties in the past are probably coming round to seeing him for the grifter he is.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
In May 2019 Farage's party was polling 25 to 30%.
The average 2019 Tory voter would vote for Farage over Hunt, except the minority of Remainers
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design. It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
Fair point
Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.
The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
Well come on then somebody, argue back.
Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
It wasn't planned at all, she is an airhead motivared by whim, fancy and short term dopamine rushes. It isn't even cargo cult thatcherism it's cc Rishiism, she saw how deeply lurved and revered he was for furlough and thought I'll have some of that.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
25% to 30% gets Farage 75 seats with electoral calculus and he becomes Leader of the Opposition as the Tories get less than 10
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
I think this is wrong. I mean Keir Starmer could still lose the next election, but it's his to lose now.
Trust is easily lost and hard to rebuild. The voters simply don't trust the Tories with the economy any more. They're done.
There are better and worse things that they can do between now and the election. A hundred seats, one way or another, are still in play. It's just they're a different hundred seats then those that were in play a month ago. The difference between a respectable defeat and a humiliating thrashing.
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
As much as history repeats it also never plays out quite the same way.
The Tories will lose the next election, nothing can stop that now but they will clearly change leaders soon (maybe as early as tomorrow) so Truss will be history. And Starmer is no Blair and Labour are far, far weaker and more divided as a party compared to New Labour in the mid 90s.
Economically and politically it all feels much more like 1974 than 1997. I could be completely wrong but I still think a small overall majority for Labour is more likely than the biggest landslide in British political history and the Tories losing official opposition status to the SNP...
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
Richard Tice runs Reform UK, Hamilton has the pitiful Kipper remnants
I quite like Tice on a personal level. But he is a lost cause as far as getting any significant numbers of seats in Parliament.
NEW: Operation ‘Save Liz’ is in full force. Cabinet loyalists have lent their staff to the new chancellor, who is out and about telling Tory MPs how she was right to change course. I spoke to one loyalist who, again, predicted a general election if the plotters didn’t back off. https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1582000313325654017
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
Stay as it is unless Wallace is the coronation candidate of a unity Cabinet, all other options are worse
I remarked yesterday that Wallace could be bought forward as the only candidate that everyone in the tory party is happy with (MP's and members), and this is still true. But this is quite a frightening prospect, his popularity is based on the fact that he is a decent chap who has done sterling work in defence. We have no idea at all if he has the skills necessary to be PM. It does seem to me that the tory party need to decide if they are serious about being a party of government.
He is competent and fine, he could keep Hunt as Chancellor, have Sunak as Foreign Secretary and Braverman at Home.
All other options lead to all out civil war and likely destroy the government. That battle needs to wait until opposition
That's not a bad call, Hyfd, but would have been better still had you wrote '...keep Braverman at home.'
Don't snicker. The Flensburg Government is in session. Simon Ding Dong Clarke is on his feet answering Levelling Up questions. He is under the impression that we have a government and that he is somehow responsible for something.
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
As much as history repeats it also never plays out quite the same way.
The Tories will lose the next election, nothing can stop that now but they will clearly change leaders soon (maybe as early as tomorrow) sop Truss will be history. And Starmer is no Blair and Labour are far, far weaker and more divided as a party compared to New Labour in the mid 90s.
Economically and politically it all feels much more like 1974 than 1997. I could be completely wrong but I still a small overall majority for Labour is more likely than the biggest landslide in British political history and the Tories official opposition status to the SNP...
I think a small Labour majority would be for the best. It would help keep them "honest"
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
All the Farage talk seems to forget a couple or three things; firstly he is one of the most unpopular politicians of all time. He has his adoring crowd, but beyond that he is very widely disliked (not even 'polarising', which implies an even split of opinion - a clear majority on any polling dislike and distrust him), and even a lot of the people who have voted for his parties in the past are probably coming round to seeing him for the grifter he is.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
In May 2019 Farage's party was polling 25 to 30%.
The average 2019 Tory voter would vote for Farage over Hunt, except the minority of Remainers
I'm struggling to see a downside here - so Farage creates a new party - attracting the right-wing former Tory voters,,
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
25% to 30% gets Farage 75 seats with electoral calculus and he becomes Leader of the Opposition as the Tories get less than 10
For the final time. Farage is not going to win 30% of the vote in a General Election. Farage is probably less than 5% likely to even form a party and stand in a General Election.
A test of loyalty, given Penny veered off piste a couple of weeks ago? The anointment of a successor? The scuppering of a potential successor? A bit of at least two of those things?
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
If the economy is improving? Energy and mortgage bills are going through the roof in 2023. And if they have learnt nothing else the "Market" wont let no 10 (or 11) give pre-election goodies in future.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
I’m starting to detect that you might actually be quite enjoying the prospect of a Farage-led Party HYUFD.
Have HY and Nigel ever been seen together in the same room...?
Only if Farage was standing in front of a bank of computers. HY would be the one with the most activity lights flashing!
All the Farage talk seems to forget a couple or three things; firstly he is one of the most unpopular politicians of all time. He has his adoring crowd, but beyond that he is very widely disliked (not even 'polarising', which implies an even split of opinion - a clear majority on any polling dislike and distrust him), and even a lot of the people who have voted for his parties in the past are probably coming round to seeing him for the grifter he is.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
In May 2019 Farage's party was polling 25 to 30%.
The average 2019 Tory voter would vote for Farage over Hunt, except the minority of Remainers
And in 2019 he won how many seats? But anyway, the country has moved on from Brexit. He has lost salience, and we are collectively tiring of chancers and self-publicists.
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
As much as history repeats it also never plays out quite the same way.
The Tories will lose the next election, nothing can stop that now but they will clearly change leaders soon (maybe as early as tomorrow) sop Truss will be history. And Starmer is no Blair and Labour are far, far weaker and more divided as a party compared to New Labour in the mid 90s.
Economically and politically it all feels much more like 1974 than 1997. I could be completely wrong but I still a small overall majority for Labour is more likely than the biggest landslide in British political history and the Tories official opposition status to the SNP...
I think a small Labour majority would be for the best. It would help keep them "honest"
That's a reasonable view, Bev, but as we all know, under FPTP it is very difficult to vore for a small majority.
NEW: Operation ‘Save Liz’ is in full force. Cabinet loyalists have lent their staff to the new chancellor, who is out and about telling Tory MPs how she was right to change course. I spoke to one loyalist who, again, predicted a general election if the plotters didn’t back off. https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1582000313325654017
Laughable . These election threats are pathetic given turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.
NEW: Operation ‘Save Liz’ is in full force. Cabinet loyalists have lent their staff to the new chancellor, who is out and about telling Tory MPs how she was right to change course. I spoke to one loyalist who, again, predicted a general election if the plotters didn’t back off. https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1582000313325654017
Comments
I think she and her team will be spending the next day or so desperately working out how she extracts herself from office. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone deputises for her at PMQs.
Hence time to give Labour a chance and provided they at least start the massive list of items probably a second chance in 2027/9.
All other options lead to all out civil war and likely destroy the government. That battle needs to wait until opposition
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
The satire / sarcasm is getting harder to spot!
If not, perhaps the Tories would be able to agree on someone.
Charles will want to break that record. At the rate things are going, he might do it by Christmas....
Might well have been a condition for taking the job.
If so, sensible.
Harry Cole
@MrHarryCole
·
3m
Ex + serving ministers spinning this morn that they are not detecting appetite for Brady to change rules yet.
Point to large parts of voluntary party, already in uproar about knifing of BoJo, who will not wear their reluctant choice of replacement being booted out and replaced.
Does that assist?
If Truss can develop a comedic style then she could do very well out of speeches on what not to do.
In Bootle, everyone hates the Labour party and will never vote for them again.... except on General Election day.
I can see the Tories outperforming a general meltdown in Scotland if the Nat vote struggles a little
So you see the problem?
Does flat footedness, policy vacuum actually matter though? Labour are going to get away with their support for Truss energy plan. They will say “our plan was always only for six months, to review and continue a more up to date approach.”
And with that one sentence they are going to get off Scot-free 👿
Black Wednesday says hello.
And whilst things are set to go better, there's a big gap between that and things going well.
Which wouldn't be far off.
We have seen ridiculous swings in the past few years. Wouldn't be choosing the wallpaper yet if I were Starmer. He might yet get out-dulled in the dullness stakes.
You can’t be proud about these things. You have to first accept them and finally see the funny side of them. I am not saying that process is easy, and there are stages to go through first.
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
Great to see a grown-up back in charge of government in the form of Jeremy Hunt. He would also make an excellent PM. Hopefully it might make a lot of the swivel-eyed nutjobs that are members of the Conservative Party quit.
Another reason why this was announced today rather than have the chancellor wait is because there's something like £25bn worth of bond sales scheduled this week, selling it at ca. 4.5% yield vs 3.5% yield is an instant saving of ca £4bn with our average bond maturity. For the past three weeks we've been accruing high yield debt for absolutely no gain.
The problem, even now at their fruitloopiest moment, with getting rid of the Tory party is what might replace them and how that could rip through politics.
In summary, the Tory party are the Leeds United of political parties.
Good luck with the increased mortgage rates, the foreclosures, the cumulative inflation, balance of trade issues and the austerity package. Even against the hopeless and hapless Starmer you have a tall order ahead of you.
Crushing Putin, or a war with Argentina is your bet hope. But never say never.
Or is there another mechanism by which the current price of gas for delivery in e.g. November, affects the current gas price on the market? (e.g if the marginal cost of production were small, those who bought in advance would be forced to lower prices to match new entrants).
In other words, if we want to know how much the energy cap will cost, which gas price should we be focussing on?
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
The average 2019 Tory voter would vote for Farage over Hunt, except the minority of Remainers
Trust is easily lost and hard to rebuild. The voters simply don't trust the Tories with the economy any more. They're done.
There are better and worse things that they can do between now and the election. A hundred seats, one way or another, are still in play. It's just they're a different hundred seats then those that were in play a month ago. The difference between a respectable defeat and a humiliating thrashing.
The Tories will lose the next election, nothing can stop that now but they will clearly change leaders soon (maybe as early as tomorrow) so Truss will be history. And Starmer is no Blair and Labour are far, far weaker and more divided as a party compared to New Labour in the mid 90s.
Economically and politically it all feels much more like 1974 than 1997. I could be completely wrong but I still think a small overall majority for Labour is more likely than the biggest landslide in British political history and the Tories losing official opposition status to the SNP...
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1582000313325654017
Where is the problem in that.
Interesting selection.