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Punters make it a 64% chance that Truss won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184

    Wowsers. Penny saying Truss is a leader of courage and in essence that Starmer is a coward...

    The audience is behind her; we’re incidental to all of this
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,958
    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt now trying to abuse Starmer.

    Doesn't sound too good, tbh. Not really relevant to the questions. Sounds like playground insults being traded, especially when she accuses him of waging economic war on schools and hospitals.

    She's owning him @ydoethur !
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855

    Wowsers. Penny saying Truss is a leader of courage and in essence that Starmer is a coward...

    Ridiculous line. You can't say that when you're leader's cowering away.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited October 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Starmer puts the knife straight in.

    'To ask the Prime Minister to make a statement.'

    As for the reply...oh dear oh dear oh dear.

    Starmer very good and Penny standing strong in her audition for the top job
    Well according to Christopher Hope, reporting the WhatsApp message from tories it's:

    "Rishi PM, Hunt CX, Penny FS. Done deal."

    Probably their best way of mitigating losses. If the last 3 years hadn't happened it would be a good triumvirate. There are some godawful Nasties on the Far Right of the tory party.They need to be shown the door, never to return to wreck this country again.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,674

    Interesting:

    New from @IpsosUK

    :Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government.


    That's similar to the kind of figures Cameron was getting before the 2010 GE, and a lot higher than Labour has got since that GE. To my mind, it seems rather generous to Labour, but if Starmer can maintain good ratings on that measure he's home and dry.

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1582008617318109186

    If you look at the net figure it’s quite a bit better for Starmer (+15) than it was for Cameron (+6).
    This is significant because it indicates a shift in the window rather than a polarization.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,687

    🚨New from @IpsosUK: Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government. 🚨

    - Highest figure Labour have recorded since losing in 2010

    - In fact - last opposition leader to register scores like this was Cameron. Just before he won.

    This is significant


    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1582008617318109186


    Technically, it should be "Just before he scraped a win via a coalition with the Liberal Democrats"
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,068

    Farage, Tice and Hamilton have no chance at the moment.

    Farage is a spent force, his time is up.
    Tice seems reasonable enough on a personal level, but I don't think he'll be able to get it together and I don't think anyone will want to listen.
    Hamilton is a joke. I'm surprised UKIP is still going, but there we are.

    None of them will get to 5%, let alone 30%.

    Farage will if @HYUFD and all the little HYUFDs vote for him. Listening to HYUFD recently, if he was an MP he would be in danger of losing the whip for promoting another party.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    ydoethur said:

    Wowsers. Penny saying Truss is a leader of courage and in essence that Starmer is a coward...

    Ridiculous line. You can't say that when you're leader's cowering away.
    The words don’t really matter; what matters to her is showing that she can actually walk the walk
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Penny tried hard to defend the impossible there. Probably won kudos from backbenchers.
  • They appear to have decided that "this UQ is a disgrace, its preventing us from hearing the chancellor" and that Starmer has changed position.

    Tories - this is only going to did your grave pit deeper.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,046
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt now trying to abuse Starmer.

    Doesn't sound too good, tbh. Not really relevant to the questions. Sounds like playground insults being traded, especially when she accuses him of waging economic war on schools and hospitals.

    She's owning him @ydoethur !
    She really isn't. Noticeably, she hasn't managed to say anything useful about Truss. It's all been about Starmer. As with Bottomley.

    What does it say that they can't think of a single thing to say about their PM?
    That the PM is about to go, and there's no point wasting any energy defending her?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Heathener said:

    ydoethur said:

    Starmer puts the knife straight in.

    'To ask the Prime Minister to make a statement.'

    As for the reply...oh dear oh dear oh dear.

    Starmer very good and Penny standing strong in her audition for the top job
    Well according to Christopher Hope, reporting the WhatsApp message from tories it's:

    "Rishi PM, Hunt CX, Penny FS. Done deal."

    Probably their best way of mitigating losses. If the last 3 years hadn't happened it would be a good triumvirate.
    That might hold 200 seats and make a respectable opposition. Won't be getting my vote this time though
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,472
    edited October 2022

    Anyone seen Dougie Ross?

    He must be trembling in the foetal position under some rock at this point.

    Didn't he support the Kamikwazi budget and demand that the SG follow it instantly? And then praise the first u-turn as well? He has sure gone quiet on all that.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63119596

    I mean, even the Romford Recorder is reporting what's going on, complete with the SG saying "look, we were right to ignore it" at least one Tory MSP fed up (albeit diplomatically) nabout their Westminster colleagues and the Party choosing PMs.

    https://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/national/23054597.scotland-right-not-copy-says-sturgeon-hunt-scraps-kwartengs-tax-cuts/
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,996
    Memo to L.T. from B.J.


    Friends colleagues and voters....

    I've fucked up big time!

    I got it all wrong and I'm sorry.

    But unlike the 40 Tory leaders before me I didn't go to private school.

    I went to a greasy spoon Northern comprehensive.

    We ate peas with a knife.

    We weren't taught how be Prime Minister.

    It wasn't an option.

    If we got a job in a nail bar we thought we'd made it.

    So please give me one more chance.

    I promise to consult on everything from now on

    And I'll do my best not to screw up the economy again.

    I'll get the best advice I can even if I have to get my Mum to pay for it...

    Thank you

    Lizzy

    (PS Wear your eau de nil crop top. It makes you look younger. Bx)
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,089
    IanB2 said:

    Mordaunt showing up Truss hugely while praising her to the hilt

    In the best Bullseye tradition, here’s what you could have won !!

    It’s a decent audition from her.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt now trying to abuse Starmer.

    Doesn't sound too good, tbh. Not really relevant to the questions. Sounds like playground insults being traded, especially when she accuses him of waging economic war on schools and hospitals.

    She's owning him @ydoethur !
    She really isn't. Noticeably, she hasn't managed to say anything useful about Truss. It's all been about Starmer. As with Bottomley.

    What does it say that they can't think of a single thing to say about their PM?
    That the PM is about to go, and there's no point wasting any energy defending her?
    So she's not owning Starmer, just selling Truss?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,687

    Nigelb said:

    PaulSimon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*

    It will then become targeted and capped

    Govt helped by falling gas prices

    @MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning

    That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
    It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
    The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design.
    It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
    Fair point
    Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.

    The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
    Well come on then somebody, argue back.

    Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
    no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
    Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...

    The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.

    A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).

    So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.

    That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.

    Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
    The best way to do universality is to do it literally universal. Flat grant to every household, as Sunak originally proposed with the £400, but at whatever rate is deemed appropriate. But keep the unit rate as high as it goes, giving the incentive to cut usage still.

    Poor households tend to use less energy. If they end up with a reduced or negligible bill then that's OK, they can use that money for any other spending they may have. Richer, bigger households tend to use a lot more energy, so while they'd get the same grant they'd be paying a lot more unit rate.

    Anyone heating a personal swimming pool or something similar shouldn't have a reduced unit rate to make that more affordable.
    This is - of course - absolutely correct. It would maximise the reduction in energy usage, by keeping the price signal, while softening the blow of increased rates most for the poorest.

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,069
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt now trying to abuse Starmer.

    Doesn't sound too good, tbh. Not really relevant to the questions. Sounds like playground insults being traded, especially when she accuses him of waging economic war on schools and hospitals.

    She's owning him @ydoethur !
    She really isn't. Noticeably, she hasn't managed to say anything useful about Truss. It's all been about Starmer. As with Bottomley.

    What does it say that they can't think of a single thing to say about their PM?
    It mostly says "Yes, I would make a good Foreign Secretary, wouldn't I?".
  • Was Wallace a Remainer or Brexiter?

    Remainer
    Ah, top bloke, then.
    Get him in, already!
    Not just that, but sound judgement;

    Early in 2016, with the approach of the European Union referendum, Boris Johnson was wavering between Leave and Remain, and Wallace advised him strongly to support Remain, as taking the Leave side would mean being allied with "clowns".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Wallace_(politician)
    So THAT was the argument that pushed BJ off the fence, in solidarity with his fellow bozos?
  • ihuntihunt Posts: 146

    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Starmer puts the knife straight in.

    'To ask the Prime Minister to make a statement.'

    As for the reply...oh dear oh dear oh dear.

    Starmer needs to behave. Kicking a lady when she is down is disgusting.

    Penny just smashed Starmer out of the park.
    so it would be ok if it was a man would it....dont we have equality now
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    Bone puts the boot into Kwasi
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,375

    No, honestly, this is crap.

    Starmer asked questions about "WTF is going on" and Mordaunt is just trotting out old taunts about Brexit and Corbyn.

    Absolutely nothing to do with the question asked. Pitiful.

    Pounding the dispatch box is the fallback when you're in an impossible spot.
    Tories are happy as she's at least making a show of confidence, but it's not exactly Prime Ministerial.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855
    Peter Bone now sticking the knife in. Very hard.

    Although notably aimed at Kwarteng, not Truss.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Of course at some point in the future it is going to come out about what exactly Truss was doing when Penny was covering for her. The Tory MPs are I'm sure massively regretting voting for Truss over Penny. "Look what you could've won".
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt now trying to abuse Starmer.

    Doesn't sound too good, tbh. Not really relevant to the questions. Sounds like playground insults being traded, especially when she accuses him of waging economic war on schools and hospitals.

    She's owning him @ydoethur !
    You're the one who thought Boris Johnson's slur on Starmer over Jimmy Savile was both "very funny" and "owning him".

    So I'll treat your judgement on such matters with a colossal dose of salt, ta.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    Mordaunt almost apologises
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,334

    pancakes said:

    It's made me think, achieving one's lifelong dream or dearest ambition might not be all it's cracked up to be. Imagine reaching the top and then making such a mess of things within days that you (and everyone else) wish you had never got there.

    Edith Cresson was French PM for less than a year and was regarded as a disaster but later had a second career as a European Commissioner which also ended in disgrace. Thanks to Brexit, that option isn't there for Liz Truss.
    She wasn't a disaster on the Truss scale, though.
    Is that like the Richter scale?

    0-2 - "Turnip Taliban" - Catches the attention of aficionados
    3-4 - "Pork markets" - Goes viral
    5-6 - "Mini-budget" - Moves markets
    7-8 - "Mini-budget reversal" - Becomes global laughing stock
    >9 - "Total implosion" - Goes down in history
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    ydoethur said:

    Peter Bone now sticking the knife in. Very hard.

    Although notably aimed at Kwarteng, not Truss.

    Being savaged by a dead sheep. With a wife
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    The Sangre de Christo mountains. Deep deep deep Colorado

    Morning!




  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,096

    Amazing to remember that the Conservative Party didn't go for Hunt in 2019.

    Interesting counterfactual as to what would have happened had the Conservatives gone for Hunt in 2019.

    I suspect right now it could be Chancellor John McDonnell that would be dealing with market turmoil had he won.
    No chance. The Conservative Party, not to mention the country, would be in a massively better place than it is now. As I wrote at the time:

    The party is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, business-friendly, economically-sound, reality-based party of government which I have supported for decades. It will justifiably get the electoral blame for the consequences of the disastrous course it has chosen, and will probably never be forgiven by younger voters.

    The election of Boris Johnson as leader is irresponsible and unworthy in itself: many of those who voted for him are fully aware that he is unfit to be PM. But, worse than that, it is a symptom of a much deeper malaise in the party, one that goes to the very heart of what the Conservative Party should be about. It is a choice of denial as well as of desperation, showing that party members have lost interest in dealing with the world as it is, not as it they would like it to be.

    If the Conservative Party no longer wishes to be a serious party of government, living in the real world and striving to act in the interests of the whole United Kingdom, what is the point of it?


    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/24/why-ive-resigned-from-the-conservative-party/
    I have no axe to grind with Hunt. But I find it implausible that he would have won a majority in 2019. We would have had a Starmer/Sturgeon double act as we went into covid.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Leon said:

    The Sangre de Christo mountains. Deep deep deep Colorado

    Morning!

    It's been a quiet day. You haven't missed much.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,315

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt now trying to abuse Starmer.

    Doesn't sound too good, tbh. Not really relevant to the questions. Sounds like playground insults being traded, especially when she accuses him of waging economic war on schools and hospitals.

    She's owning him @ydoethur !
    Your Brexit policy (and reason for hating Starmer) would actually hand this wretched goverment a lifeline.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855
    Richard Graham showing yet again that Gloucester has a habit of picking muppets for its MPs.

    An honourable line of Oppenheim, French, Kingham, Dhanda and now him.
  • Carnyx said:

    Sunak still has the air of a Foxton’s real estate agent trying to sell you a “two-beddy” next to a railway line.

    Still I suppose it doesn’t really matter anymore.

    I live in a four-beddy next to a railway line.

    It's fine.
    Ok. Replace railway line with pork rendering factory.
    Some of us would pay extra to live next to a railway line!
    Melton Mowbray has both ... if that is a reasonably accurate description of the pork pie factory and Pedigree Petfoods plant.
    There are no pork pies in New York, which really is a disgrace.

    I have a suddenly hankering for one Mrs King of Nottinghamshire’s finest.
    Really?

    https://www.yelp.com/search?find_desc=Pork+Pie&find_loc=New+York,+NY

    No idea however IF any of these pork pie mongers will meet you high standards . . .
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,484
    Truss is a goner, isn't she? Mordaunt gave no plausible reason for her absence this afternoon. So Truss is either frit, or is trying to save her future somehow. Either way, she's out, surely? Not turning up to the UQ without a really good excuse is inexcusable.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 23% (-3)
    Lab 55% (+4)
    Lib Dem 7% (-2)
    Other 15% (+3)
    Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022
    Sample: 1,050 GB adults
    (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1

    I think 55% is the highest yet for Labour in any recent poll? Lid Dems on the slide....
    Davey has been strangely invisible; not necessarily a new state for him but if not now when?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,184
    Jim Bowen says “let’s look what you could have won….”
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,096
    I know it's not top of anybody's list of concerns right now, but Wasps has gone into administration.
    Andrew Sheridan has been appointed as the administrator. Surely not the prop forward from England's 2007 RWC campaign?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Cookie said:

    Amazing to remember that the Conservative Party didn't go for Hunt in 2019.

    Interesting counterfactual as to what would have happened had the Conservatives gone for Hunt in 2019.

    I suspect right now it could be Chancellor John McDonnell that would be dealing with market turmoil had he won.
    No chance. The Conservative Party, not to mention the country, would be in a massively better place than it is now. As I wrote at the time:

    The party is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, business-friendly, economically-sound, reality-based party of government which I have supported for decades. It will justifiably get the electoral blame for the consequences of the disastrous course it has chosen, and will probably never be forgiven by younger voters.

    The election of Boris Johnson as leader is irresponsible and unworthy in itself: many of those who voted for him are fully aware that he is unfit to be PM. But, worse than that, it is a symptom of a much deeper malaise in the party, one that goes to the very heart of what the Conservative Party should be about. It is a choice of denial as well as of desperation, showing that party members have lost interest in dealing with the world as it is, not as it they would like it to be.

    If the Conservative Party no longer wishes to be a serious party of government, living in the real world and striving to act in the interests of the whole United Kingdom, what is the point of it?


    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/24/why-ive-resigned-from-the-conservative-party/
    I have no axe to grind with Hunt. But I find it implausible that he would have won a majority in 2019. We would have had a Starmer/Sturgeon double act as we went into covid.
    Really? I thought Starmer became Labour leader in 2020. My memory must be playing tricks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855
    edited October 2022

    Truss is a goner, isn't she? Mordaunt gave no plausible reason for her absence this afternoon. So Truss is either frit, or is trying to save her future somehow. Either way, she's out, surely? Not turning up to the UQ without a really good excuse is inexcusable.

    To be fair, she has a really good excuse. She would receive the most imposing mass buggering since the days of Epaminondas.

    That MP was awful. My goodness, I thought Rees-Mogg was a ranting fool.

    When the DUP is the voice of reason by comparison, something's very wrong.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,236

    Takes a certain amount of chutzpah to reverse every measure in your budget, send someone else to answer the UQ, and claim that it's Labour who have wasted everybody's time.

    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1582020694858436610

    Yes but Starmer's cat-that's-got-the-cream politicking grates somewhat - he needs to be careful.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,958
    Hats off to Alberto Costa!
  • Not a fan of Mordaunt but she’s doing a decent job and I shudder to think how Truss would be doing.

    In sharp contrast to Thatcher who the day she resigned took Kinnock apart on the floor of the house.

    She's doing a reasonable job in egregiously bad circumstances. But the "this question is a disgrace, its very important that we hear the (new) chancellor destroy the old chancellor and the PM right now" line is absurd.

    Alberto Costa now appealing to hilarity that Mordaunt is a HUGE asset.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,687
    Interesting piece from Politico, talking to Fiona Hill about Putin and Ukraine.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/17/fiona-hill-putin-war-00061894
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,236
    edited October 2022

    Not bad by Mordaunt.

    Won't have done her chances any harm.

    Not bad is an understatement - how can she have done any better? Delivered with flair and humour to boot.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855

    This isn’t going to be doing Penny any harm with her own party.

    It's doing more damage to Truss than Truss turning up and doing the Dance of the Seven Veils while swigging vodka would.
  • I Spy Mrs Brady sat there in the corner with a pronounced smirk on his face.

    Penny M said that the PM was unavoidably detained. Has Mrs B gone to see her already, or is he to do so shortly?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,175
    edited October 2022

    mickydroy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 23% (-3)
    Lab 55% (+4)
    Lib Dem 7% (-2)
    Other 15% (+3)
    Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022
    Sample: 1,050 GB adults
    (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1

    I think 55% is the highest yet for Labour in any recent poll? Lid Dems on the slide....
    One thing is for certain, that the lib dems will poll more than 7% in a general election, these recent polls are for the birds
    Agreed.

    Tremendous fun, but not remotely related to how actual piles of votes will look.

    For one thing, if it still looks like Lab Landslide going into the final week, an awful lot of folk will feel safe voting for their real first choices, especially Green and LD.
    The Lab (particularly the SLab variety) mantra is vote Labour if you want a Labour government.
    I guess it's deliberate but they seem to be ignoring the large number of voters who very much don't want the current bunch of weirdos and incompetents in charge any longer and aren't that much bothered who replaces them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,960
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    PaulSimon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*

    It will then become targeted and capped

    Govt helped by falling gas prices

    @MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning

    That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
    It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
    The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design.
    It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
    Fair point
    Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.

    The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
    Well come on then somebody, argue back.

    Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
    no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
    Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...

    The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.

    A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).

    So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.

    That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.

    Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
    The best way to do universality is to do it literally universal. Flat grant to every household, as Sunak originally proposed with the £400, but at whatever rate is deemed appropriate. But keep the unit rate as high as it goes, giving the incentive to cut usage still.

    Poor households tend to use less energy. If they end up with a reduced or negligible bill then that's OK, they can use that money for any other spending they may have. Richer, bigger households tend to use a lot more energy, so while they'd get the same grant they'd be paying a lot more unit rate.

    Anyone heating a personal swimming pool or something similar shouldn't have a reduced unit rate to make that more affordable.
    This is - of course - absolutely correct. It would maximise the reduction in energy usage, by keeping the price signal, while softening the blow of increased rates most for the poorest.
    Even better if you abolish the standing charge, and increase the unit rate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,375
    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting piece from Politico, talking to Fiona Hill about Putin and Ukraine.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/10/17/fiona-hill-putin-war-00061894

    Even more interesting interview with Baltic intelligence officers.

    "Human Life Has No Value There“: Baltic Counterintelligence Officers Speak Candidly About Russian Cruelty
    https://ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/120083694/human-life-has-no-value-there-baltic-counterintelligence-officers-speak-candidly-about-russian-cruelty
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,236
    Both Hunt and Mordaunt are showing Truss up.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,096
    DougSeal said:

    Cookie said:

    Amazing to remember that the Conservative Party didn't go for Hunt in 2019.

    Interesting counterfactual as to what would have happened had the Conservatives gone for Hunt in 2019.

    I suspect right now it could be Chancellor John McDonnell that would be dealing with market turmoil had he won.
    No chance. The Conservative Party, not to mention the country, would be in a massively better place than it is now. As I wrote at the time:

    The party is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, business-friendly, economically-sound, reality-based party of government which I have supported for decades. It will justifiably get the electoral blame for the consequences of the disastrous course it has chosen, and will probably never be forgiven by younger voters.

    The election of Boris Johnson as leader is irresponsible and unworthy in itself: many of those who voted for him are fully aware that he is unfit to be PM. But, worse than that, it is a symptom of a much deeper malaise in the party, one that goes to the very heart of what the Conservative Party should be about. It is a choice of denial as well as of desperation, showing that party members have lost interest in dealing with the world as it is, not as it they would like it to be.

    If the Conservative Party no longer wishes to be a serious party of government, living in the real world and striving to act in the interests of the whole United Kingdom, what is the point of it?


    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/24/why-ive-resigned-from-the-conservative-party/
    I have no axe to grind with Hunt. But I find it implausible that he would have won a majority in 2019. We would have had a Starmer/Sturgeon double act as we went into covid.
    Really? I thought Starmer became Labour leader in 2020. My memory must be playing tricks.
    Yes, fair point - 'Corbyn' was what was in my head, but 'Starmer' was what came out of my fingers. Maybe it was the attraction of an alliteration.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Who do Tory MPs want standing up at PMQs every week? Truss or Mordaunt. That is the reality they face. Penny will have earnt some serious kudos from Tory MPs for dealing with this today. Hopefully they will now act.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,375

    Hats off to Alberto Costa!

    For outdoing Rees Mogg in the ranting fool stakes ?
    Agreed.

    Downright embarrassing, were he capable of such an emotion.
  • This isn’t going to be doing Penny any harm with her own party.

    Truss placed Penny in an impossible position and Penny has performed very well under the circumstances and it is shameful, utterly shameful, Truss put her in this position

    Truss is a disgrace to the office of Prime Minister and in a few short weeks has established herself as the worst PM in my lifetime
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Mordaunt obviously missed the part where Marc Antony turned the "I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him" speech round.

    https://twitter.com/fatshez/status/1582021727651270657
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855
    Stella Creasy doing a very good job here. Reasoned and passionate.

    Mordaunt floundered somewhat there. 'She's not under a desk...'
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,375

    I Spy Mrs Brady sat there in the corner with a pronounced smirk on his face.

    Penny M said that the PM was unavoidably detained...

    House arrest ?
  • AlistairM said:

    Who do Tory MPs want standing up at PMQs every week? Truss or Mordaunt. That is the reality they face. Penny will have earnt some serious kudos from Tory MPs for dealing with this today. Hopefully they will now act.

    Its quite funny really. Mordaunt on paper is playing a straight bat. Defend the government. Praise the PM. But all it shows it how utterly shit the PM is.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    I do love Stella Creasy. Absolutely brilliant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855
    Hmmm. What was Tissue Price trying for there?

    He looked pretty flustered.
  • Mordaunt "with regret she [the PM] is not here for a very good reason".
  • Penny Mordaunt: "The Prime Minister is not under a desk..."
  • Aaron Bell soiling himself. Sadly.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,733
    edited October 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Stella Creasy doing a very good job here. Reasoned and passionate.

    Mordaunt floundered somewhat there. 'She's not under a desk...'

    Perhaps she's on the way to Kyiv...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Stocky said:

    Both Hunt and Mordaunt are showing Truss up.

    Sunak not getting a look in. Mordaunt impressive.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    When is Penny on?

    That wasn't announced. Just keeping Income Tax at 20p, not being increased to 21p.
    Ha! Assume she'll be answering Keir's questions on the matter: Penny on income tax

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt now trying to abuse Starmer.

    Doesn't sound too good, tbh. Not really relevant to the questions. Sounds like playground insults being traded, especially when she accuses him of waging economic war on schools and hospitals.

    She's owning him @ydoethur !
    Your Brexit policy (and reason for hating Starmer) would actually hand this wretched goverment a lifeline.
    Indeed. Pete is a decent poster, but he goes all swivel eyed and weird when it comes to Royale.
  • Agree

    If Bloomberg and Reuters didn't flash: "MORDAUNT: TRUSS 'IS NOT UNDER A DESK'" then a lot of people should resign.
  • ydoethur said:

    Hmmm. What was Tissue Price trying for there?

    He looked pretty flustered.

    What did he say?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855

    ydoethur said:

    Stella Creasy doing a very good job here. Reasoned and passionate.

    Mordaunt floundered somewhat there. 'She's not under a desk...'

    Perhaps she's on the way to Kyiv...
    A chicken Kyiv?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,334
    Liz Truss is probably destined to become a figure like Sarah Ferguson, popping up in the tabloids from time to time for doing something embarrassing.
  • Mordaunt "with regret she [the PM] is not here for a very good reason".

    Is that reference to a very good reason (in response to Stella Creasey) a hint that the Prime Minister is about to resign?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855

    ydoethur said:

    Hmmm. What was Tissue Price trying for there?

    He looked pretty flustered.

    What did he say?
    He went off on one about how this was a waste of time and it was high time we heard from the Chancellor.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,687

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead is thirty-two points in latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 23% (-3)
    Lab 55% (+4)
    Lib Dem 7% (-2)
    Other 15% (+3)
    Fieldwork: 13 - 17 October 2022
    Sample: 1,050 GB adults
    (Changes from 6 - 7 October 2022) https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1582012756974182400/photo/1

    I think 55% is the highest yet for Labour in any recent poll? Lid Dems on the slide....
    Davey has been strangely invisible; not necessarily a new state for him but if not now when?
    Who?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,334
    Is Liz Truss under house arrest at her dacha in Norfolk?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Mordaunt "with regret she [the PM] is not here for a very good reason".

    I wonder if they are going to go with breakdown?
    As a sufferer of pretty gross mental health problems id be both sympathetic but simultaneously 'it better not be a fucking game'
    Were that the tool used......
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    ydoethur said:

    Stella Creasy doing a very good job here. Reasoned and passionate.

    Mordaunt floundered somewhat there. 'She's not under a desk...'

    She said she has a “very good reason”. Hmm. I thought she looked a little concerned there.

    This is lending credence to my theory that she’s having a bit of a personal crisis.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,965
    "the prime minister is not under a desk"

    Mordaunt is going for the leadership
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,958
    ...

    ydoethur said:

    Hmmm. What was Tissue Price trying for there?

    He looked pretty flustered.

    What did he say?
    It was difficult to interpret.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,422
    edited October 2022
    I think sending Mordaunt in to bat here was an OK move by Truss.

    Clearly Sunak is desperate for the job, so by giving various other contenders a chance to shine (Hunt, now Mordaunt) the plan must be to create disunity amongst those advocating a coronation.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    edited October 2022

    Mordaunt "with regret she [the PM] is not here for a very good reason".

    Maybe she is having some form of mental breakdown, the pressure she must be under would be incredible.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Is Liz Truss under house arrest at her dacha in Norfolk?

    Skies are crystal blue in Norfolk rn, she's not here
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,236

    Mordaunt "with regret she [the PM] is not here for a very good reason".

    Maybe she is having some form of mental breakdown, the pressure she must be under would be incredible.
    I wondered that.
  • Cookie said:

    Amazing to remember that the Conservative Party didn't go for Hunt in 2019.

    Interesting counterfactual as to what would have happened had the Conservatives gone for Hunt in 2019.

    I suspect right now it could be Chancellor John McDonnell that would be dealing with market turmoil had he won.
    No chance. The Conservative Party, not to mention the country, would be in a massively better place than it is now. As I wrote at the time:

    The party is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, business-friendly, economically-sound, reality-based party of government which I have supported for decades. It will justifiably get the electoral blame for the consequences of the disastrous course it has chosen, and will probably never be forgiven by younger voters.

    The election of Boris Johnson as leader is irresponsible and unworthy in itself: many of those who voted for him are fully aware that he is unfit to be PM. But, worse than that, it is a symptom of a much deeper malaise in the party, one that goes to the very heart of what the Conservative Party should be about. It is a choice of denial as well as of desperation, showing that party members have lost interest in dealing with the world as it is, not as it they would like it to be.

    If the Conservative Party no longer wishes to be a serious party of government, living in the real world and striving to act in the interests of the whole United Kingdom, what is the point of it?


    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/24/why-ive-resigned-from-the-conservative-party/
    I have no axe to grind with Hunt. But I find it implausible that he would have won a majority in 2019. We would have had a Starmer/Sturgeon double act as we went into covid.
    Nah. For a start (as you have already corrected) it would have been Corbyn not Starmer and, far more importantly, if it had been Hunt vs Corbyn then Hunt would still have won. Corbyn just scared the horses way too much. It is a sign of how bad May was that he even got close to her in 2017.

    What Hunt would then have done I have no idea. Judging Hunt by his actions today in a crisis when effectively all he has to do is stabilise the markets to be a hero is no real judge of how he would have handled the internal party politics 4 years ago, not how he would have handled Covid. I suspect he would have done better than Johnson on the latter but that is just my own anti-Johnson bias really.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Mordaunt "with regret she [the PM] is not here for a very good reason".

    I wonder if they are going to go with breakdown?
    As a sufferer of pretty gross mental health problems id be both sympathetic but simultaneously 'it better not be a fucking game'
    Were that the tool used......
    It has the advantage of being very believable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,334
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Stocky said:

    Both Hunt and Mordaunt are showing Truss up.

    Sunak not getting a look in. Mordaunt impressive.
    If Mourdant were PM with Hunt as Chancellor, would there be a role for Sunak? Maybe he should be tested as Home Secretary.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855
    Oh FFS. How can Truss put us in the situation when I'm agreeing with Caroline Lucas?

    Anna Firth even worse than that Leics bloke.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Liz Truss is probably destined to become a figure like Sarah Ferguson, popping up in the tabloids from time to time for doing something embarrassing.

    She will end up on a chat show in 2030 where the latest teen angel will say 'didnt you used to be somebody?'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,855
    Stephen Flynn had a neat line there, but I have to admit Mordaunt came back with a zinger.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,762
    Pulpstar said:

    I think sending Mordaunt in to bat here was an OK move by Truss.

    Clearly Sunak is desperate for the job, so by giving various other contenders a chance to shine (Hunt, now Mordaunt) the plan must be to create disunity amongst those advocating a coronation.

    But, if not, she also wants to block Sunak.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,958
    ydoethur said:

    Oh FFS. How can Truss put us in the situation when I'm agreeing with Caroline Lucas?

    Anna Firth even worse than that Leics bloke.

    She is head and shoulders better than Long- Bailey who has just been put back in her box by Penny!
  • There are some deeply shit whip's questions being asked here.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Hmmm. What was Tissue Price trying for there?

    He looked pretty flustered.

    What did he say?
    He went off on one about how this was a waste of time and it was high time we heard from the Chancellor.
    Ta
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    AlistairM said:

    Mordaunt "with regret she [the PM] is not here for a very good reason".

    I wonder if they are going to go with breakdown?
    As a sufferer of pretty gross mental health problems id be both sympathetic but simultaneously 'it better not be a fucking game'
    Were that the tool used......
    It has the advantage of being very believable.
    And, if true, very personally traumatic for her.
This discussion has been closed.