All the Farage talk seems to forget a couple or three things; firstly he is one of the most unpopular politicians of all time. He has his adoring crowd, but beyond that he is very widely disliked (not even 'polarising', which implies an even split of opinion - a clear majority on any polling dislike and distrust him), and even a lot of the people who have voted for his parties in the past are probably coming round to seeing him for the grifter he is.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
In May 2019 Farage's party was polling 25 to 30%.
The average 2019 Tory voter would vote for Farage over Hunt, except the minority of Remainers
And in 2019 he won how many seats? But anyway, the country has moved on from Brexit. He has lost salience, and we are collectively tiring of chancers and self-publicists.
No we aren't, if the Tories betray Brexit then that is it for them. Farage's party will replace them, you have no idea of the fury and wrath of the average Leave voting Conservative if a Hunt government restores free movement and rejoins the single market.
Farage ONLY did not win seats in Dec 2019 as Boris replaced May and delivered a hard Brexit deal, had May stayed leader then the Brexit Party would have come second at the last general election to a Corbyn minority government
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
Yet it is so obviously the right thing to do.
So you see the problem?
It isn’t. It’s a dreadful idea (well the single market is - I have no issues with free movement). But I’m no longer worried about us going back in - partly because Labour doesn’t want to reopen that box, and partly because we’d be vetoed whilst the Tory opposition kept saying “we’ll just leave again”.
We on the leave side won and the victory is just about bedded in. Hence we can safely vote Labour again and it’s more or less their turn anyway.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
25% to 30% gets Farage 75 seats with electoral calculus and he becomes Leader of the Opposition as the Tories get less than 10
Get a grip man! How many times have I told you UNS is for the birds. Farage is not going to take over Westminster like some low-rent Oswald Moseley. Moderate one-nation Tories who appeal to me will keep your Party alive. ERG types attract the bigots, who are far fewer in number. If these clowns want to jump ship to Farage or Tice they are finished. I present to you Mark Reckless!
The dead-in- the-water Corbyn is another model for such a failure.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
NEW: Operation ‘Save Liz’ is in full force. Cabinet loyalists have lent their staff to the new chancellor, who is out and about telling Tory MPs how she was right to change course. I spoke to one loyalist who, again, predicted a general election if the plotters didn’t back off. https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1582000313325654017
Theresa and Boris both threatened an election to shore up their positions and both times if failed. As it will do so for Liz.
However, whoever takes over will probably have to have an election no later than next spring IMO so that's the one calculation that may keep the Tories from wielding the knife for now... That said, I think she'll be gone this week.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
She just needs to resign. There's simply no chance of her staying on as PM after an election.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
25% to 30% gets Farage 75 seats with electoral calculus and he becomes Leader of the Opposition as the Tories get less than 10
Get a grip man! How many times have I told you UNS is for the birds. Farage is not going to take over Westminster like some low-rent Oswald Moseley. Moderate one-nation Tories who appeal to me will keep your Party alive. ERG types attract the bigots, who are far fewer in number. If these clowns want to jump ship to Farage or Tice they are finished. I present to you Mark Reckless!
The dead-in- the-water Corbyn is another model for such a failure.
Most 2019 Tory voters were closer to the ERG than Cameron Remainers
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
I commend your optimism to the House.
Good luck with the increased mortgage rates, the foreclosures, the cumulative inflation, balance of trade issues and the austerity package. Even against the hopeless and hapless Starmer you have a tall order ahead of you.
Crushing Putin, or a war with Argentina is your bet hope. But never say never.
What exactly have you got against Starmer FFS?
Is the complete destruction of the Corbynite Wing, the move back to a credible party of government and 30 point poll leads not enough for you?
You are as ludicrous as the risible Owls on this matter.
NEW: Operation ‘Save Liz’ is in full force. Cabinet loyalists have lent their staff to the new chancellor, who is out and about telling Tory MPs how she was right to change course. I spoke to one loyalist who, again, predicted a general election if the plotters didn’t back off. https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1582000313325654017
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
As much as history repeats it also never plays out quite the same way.
The Tories will lose the next election, nothing can stop that now but they will clearly change leaders soon (maybe as early as tomorrow) sop Truss will be history. And Starmer is no Blair and Labour are far, far weaker and more divided as a party compared to New Labour in the mid 90s.
Economically and politically it all feels much more like 1974 than 1997. I could be completely wrong but I still a small overall majority for Labour is more likely than the biggest landslide in British political history and the Tories official opposition status to the SNP...
I think a small Labour majority would be for the best. It would help keep them "honest"
That's a reasonable view, Bev, but as we all know, under FPTP it is very difficult to vore for a small majority.
As a voter's pencil hovers over the ballot paper I think their greatest concern will be ensuring that the Tories are gone. I don't think they will be too worried about overdoing it. And Starmer wouldn't say boo to a ghost.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design. It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
Fair point
Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.
The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
Well come on then somebody, argue back.
Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...
The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.
A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).
So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.
That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.
Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
Martin Lewis would do a much better job of running the country than the clueless bunch currently pretending to .
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
Couldn’t agree more. He went completely hysterical about gas prices.
All the Farage talk seems to forget a couple or three things; firstly he is one of the most unpopular politicians of all time. He has his adoring crowd, but beyond that he is very widely disliked (not even 'polarising', which implies an even split of opinion - a clear majority on any polling dislike and distrust him), and even a lot of the people who have voted for his parties in the past are probably coming round to seeing him for the grifter he is.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
In May 2019 Farage's party was polling 25 to 30%.
The average 2019 Tory voter would vote for Farage over Hunt, except the minority of Remainers
And in 2019 he won how many seats? But anyway, the country has moved on from Brexit. He has lost salience, and we are collectively tiring of chancers and self-publicists.
No we aren't, if the Tories betray Brexit then that is it for them. Farage's party will replace them, you have no idea of the fury and wrath of the average Leave voting Conservative if a Hunt government restores free movement and rejoins the single market.
Farage ONLY did not win seats in Dec 2019 as Boris replaced May and delivered a hard Brexit deal, had May stayed leader then the Brexit Party would have come second at the last general election to a Corbyn minority government
He's not proposing that though, is he? But even so, FPTP scuppers Nige. And a lot of average 2019 tory voters would frankly now vote Starmer over either of them. They also got millions of votes back in 2015 and returned exactly one MP (the lunar-tide-denier Carswell, who was a kipper-in-name-only anyway).
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
"...some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him" Lol!
You think that would make him tow the government line? Honestly, we're not in Russia yet.
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
As much as history repeats it also never plays out quite the same way.
The Tories will lose the next election, nothing can stop that now but they will clearly change leaders soon (maybe as early as tomorrow) sop Truss will be history. And Starmer is no Blair and Labour are far, far weaker and more divided as a party compared to New Labour in the mid 90s.
Economically and politically it all feels much more like 1974 than 1997. I could be completely wrong but I still a small overall majority for Labour is more likely than the biggest landslide in British political history and the Tories official opposition status to the SNP...
I think a small Labour majority would be for the best. It would help keep them "honest"
That's a reasonable view, Bev, but as we all know, under FPTP it is very difficult to vore for a small majority.
As a voter's pencil hovers over the ballot paper I think their greatest concern will be ensuring that the Tories are gone. I don't think they will be too worried about overdoing it. And Starmer wouldn't say boo to a ghost.
After Iraq, Blair's biggest mistake was a failure to change the voting system.
I am not holding my breath for better under Starmer.
Senior UK business figures are calling on Liz Truss to stand down as prime minister after she was forced to scrap almost all of her economic policies https://trib.al/IIWFzKB
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
25% to 30% gets Farage 75 seats with electoral calculus and he becomes Leader of the Opposition as the Tories get less than 10
Many years ago, young HY, we had a discussion here about the way that electoral calculus worked.
The conclusion that we came to is that it didn't. Its model was far too simple.
All the Farage talk seems to forget a couple or three things; firstly he is one of the most unpopular politicians of all time. He has his adoring crowd, but beyond that he is very widely disliked (not even 'polarising', which implies an even split of opinion - a clear majority on any polling dislike and distrust him), and even a lot of the people who have voted for his parties in the past are probably coming round to seeing him for the grifter he is.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
In May 2019 Farage's party was polling 25 to 30%.
The average 2019 Tory voter would vote for Farage over Hunt, except the minority of Remainers
And in 2019 he won how many seats? But anyway, the country has moved on from Brexit. He has lost salience, and we are collectively tiring of chancers and self-publicists.
No we aren't, if the Tories betray Brexit then that is it for them. Farage's party will replace them, you have no idea of the fury and wrath of the average Leave voting Conservative if a Hunt government restores free movement and rejoins the single market.
Farage ONLY did not win seats in Dec 2019 as Boris replaced May and delivered a hard Brexit deal, had May stayed leader then the Brexit Party would have come second at the last general election to a Corbyn minority government
Nobody is betraying Brexit. Brexit is done! Even Starmer's Labour have embraced that single act of halfwittery.
But what was the definition of Brexit? There was no mention of jettisoning everything until May decided "Brexit means Brexit", without knowing what that meant. And Johnson discovered that demanding the hardest of hard Brexits would allow him to choose some expensive wallpaper.
People are getting more concerned about paying the mortgage than they are about receiving their blue passport. Brexit has been trumped by the fear of poverty.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
She just needs to resign. There's simply no chance of her staying on as PM after an election.
“Just” needs to give up her life’s ambition in the most humiliating way, condemned to be forever remembered as the most incompetent and useless PM ever. Well, I am glad it’s that easy.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
25% to 30% gets Farage 75 seats with electoral calculus and he becomes Leader of the Opposition as the Tories get less than 10
Get a grip man! How many times have I told you UNS is for the birds. Farage is not going to take over Westminster like some low-rent Oswald Moseley. Moderate one-nation Tories who appeal to me will keep your Party alive. ERG types attract the bigots, who are far fewer in number. If these clowns want to jump ship to Farage or Tice they are finished. I present to you Mark Reckless!
The dead-in- the-water Corbyn is another model for such a failure.
Most 2019 Tory voters were closer to the ERG than Cameron Remainers
Indeed so, but they're finding out the hard way that the Cameron Remainers were right all along.
NEW: Operation ‘Save Liz’ is in full force. Cabinet loyalists have lent their staff to the new chancellor, who is out and about telling Tory MPs how she was right to change course. I spoke to one loyalist who, again, predicted a general election if the plotters didn’t back off. https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1582000313325654017
Reminds me of phoney-baloney job protection schemes...
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
As much as history repeats it also never plays out quite the same way.
The Tories will lose the next election, nothing can stop that now but they will clearly change leaders soon (maybe as early as tomorrow) sop Truss will be history. And Starmer is no Blair and Labour are far, far weaker and more divided as a party compared to New Labour in the mid 90s.
Economically and politically it all feels much more like 1974 than 1997. I could be completely wrong but I still a small overall majority for Labour is more likely than the biggest landslide in British political history and the Tories official opposition status to the SNP...
I think a small Labour majority would be for the best. It would help keep them "honest"
That's a reasonable view, Bev, but as we all know, under FPTP it is very difficult to vore for a small majority.
As a voter's pencil hovers over the ballot paper I think their greatest concern will be ensuring that the Tories are gone. I don't think they will be too worried about overdoing it. And Starmer wouldn't say boo to a ghost.
After Iraq, Blair's biggest mistake was a failure to change the voting system.
I am not holding my breath for better under Starmer.
I think after Iraq, it was only FPTP that kept him in office.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
"...some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him" Lol!
You think that would make him tow the government line? Honestly, we're not in Russia yet.
well maybe he will have to be careful not to go near open windows lol
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
Stay as it is unless Wallace is the coronation candidate of a unity Cabinet, all other options are worse
Wallace was a strong remainer. Why do you see him as more of a unity candidate than Sunak? You seem to think that Sunak (who voted leave) is toxic to the ERGers but I don't think this is so.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
She just needs to resign. There's simply no chance of her staying on as PM after an election.
A Truss-led Tory GE campaign would be comedy gold though.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
Richard Tice runs Reform UK, Hamilton has the pitiful Kipper remnants
I quite like Tice on a personal level. But he is a lost cause as far as getting any significant numbers of seats in Parliament.
Needs something new. Tice has made no impression at all in by elections or at local level. A red wall focussed effort and perhaps heavily concentrated in the Essex, East Greater London and Kent seats could pay dividends
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
As much as history repeats it also never plays out quite the same way.
The Tories will lose the next election, nothing can stop that now but they will clearly change leaders soon (maybe as early as tomorrow) sop Truss will be history. And Starmer is no Blair and Labour are far, far weaker and more divided as a party compared to New Labour in the mid 90s.
Economically and politically it all feels much more like 1974 than 1997. I could be completely wrong but I still a small overall majority for Labour is more likely than the biggest landslide in British political history and the Tories official opposition status to the SNP...
I think a small Labour majority would be for the best. It would help keep them "honest"
That's a reasonable view, Bev, but as we all know, under FPTP it is very difficult to vore for a small majority.
As a voter's pencil hovers over the ballot paper I think their greatest concern will be ensuring that the Tories are gone. I don't think they will be too worried about overdoing it. And Starmer wouldn't say boo to a ghost.
After Iraq, Blair's biggest mistake was a failure to change the voting system.
I am not holding my breath for better under Starmer.
I think that issue has been noted by Labour Party Members if not by the Unions..
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
Richard Tice runs Reform UK, Hamilton has the pitiful Kipper remnants
I quite like Tice on a personal level. But he is a lost cause as far as getting any significant numbers of seats in Parliament.
Needs something new. Tice has made no impression at all in by elections or at local level. A red wall focussed effort and perhaps heavily concentrated in the Essex, East Greater London and Kent seats could pay dividends
comes across as too much of a public school smoothie to appeal to the red wall i think
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
She just needs to resign. There's simply no chance of her staying on as PM after an election.
“Just” needs to give up her life’s ambition in the most humiliating way, condemned to be forever remembered as the most incompetent and useless PM ever. Well, I am glad it’s that easy.
If she stays in No.10 they could be carrying her out in a straightjacket. This business of changing the phone numbers worries me. Stuff like that is often the first sign of mental health issues as people try to avoid whatever it is that is causing them issues.
It's made me think, achieving one's lifelong dream or dearest ambition might not be all it's cracked up to be. Imagine reaching the top and then making such a mess of things within days that you (and everyone else) wish you had never got there.
I think Hunt has reversed about a 40% of the risk premium the mini budget has caused, Truss being summarily dumped and replaced with Rishi would get us to about an 80% reversal and an OBR paper showing debt falling within 3 years would get us back to where we were.
So between 5-7 weeks of depressed bond values, with average maturity this has cost the nation between £9-11bn in additional debt servicing costs.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
25% to 30% gets Farage 75 seats with electoral calculus and he becomes Leader of the Opposition as the Tories get less than 10
Get a grip man! How many times have I told you UNS is for the birds. Farage is not going to take over Westminster like some low-rent Oswald Moseley. Moderate one-nation Tories who appeal to me will keep your Party alive. ERG types attract the bigots, who are far fewer in number. If these clowns want to jump ship to Farage or Tice they are finished. I present to you Mark Reckless!
The dead-in- the-water Corbyn is another model for such a failure.
Most 2019 Tory voters were closer to the ERG than Cameron Remainers
If they can't afford their mortgage repayments they will be closer to Starmer Labour than the ERG or Cameron Remainers.
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
As much as history repeats it also never plays out quite the same way.
The Tories will lose the next election, nothing can stop that now but they will clearly change leaders soon (maybe as early as tomorrow) sop Truss will be history. And Starmer is no Blair and Labour are far, far weaker and more divided as a party compared to New Labour in the mid 90s.
Economically and politically it all feels much more like 1974 than 1997. I could be completely wrong but I still a small overall majority for Labour is more likely than the biggest landslide in British political history and the Tories official opposition status to the SNP...
I think a small Labour majority would be for the best. It would help keep them "honest"
That's a reasonable view, Bev, but as we all know, under FPTP it is very difficult to vore for a small majority.
As a voter's pencil hovers over the ballot paper I think their greatest concern will be ensuring that the Tories are gone. I don't think they will be too worried about overdoing it. And Starmer wouldn't say boo to a ghost.
After Iraq, Blair's biggest mistake was a failure to change the voting system.
I am not holding my breath for better under Starmer.
I think after Iraq, it was only FPTP that kept him in office.
Agreed, but when first elected he had a golden opportunity. Never took it.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
"...some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him" Lol!
You think that would make him tow the government line? Honestly, we're not in Russia yet.
well maybe he will have to be careful not to go near open windows lol
It's the sort of thing my (endearingly naive) 90 yo father-in-law would say: "I suspect some high ups in the govt have had a quiet word with him".
He was of the opinion in the spring that Johnson was only still PM because 'no one else would want the job'.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
Martin Lewis would do a much better job of running the country than the clueless bunch currently pretending to .
not really he just wanted help to people whatever the cost as if there was a constant magic money tree
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
Sorry, but as you were/are an apologist for the populists who have possibly destroyed the Conservative Party, we all have to accept that your judgement is about as useful as a Kwasi Kwarteng in a monetary crisis
Given you did not vote for Boris when he won a landslide majority in Dec 2019 and given the Brexit Party were leading the May Tories in polls in early 2019 we also know your judgement is clueless on this
There is only one clueless person on here and it is @ HYUFD who is not a conservative but a Farage apologists having successfully served his apprenticeship for him
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
Martin Lewis would do a much better job of running the country than the clueless bunch currently pretending to .
My 86 year old MiL is sitting in her modern house covered in blankets and cold but too scared to put her heating on because of the hysterical nonsense in the media led by Martin Lewis. It was irresponsible.
Labour source: "We were hoping to hear the Prime Minister explain if this was all worth demolishing the economy for. But it seems the lady’s not for turning up.”
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
Richard Tice runs Reform UK, Hamilton has the pitiful Kipper remnants
I quite like Tice on a personal level. But he is a lost cause as far as getting any significant numbers of seats in Parliament.
Needs something new. Tice has made no impression at all in by elections or at local level. A red wall focussed effort and perhaps heavily concentrated in the Essex, East Greater London and Kent seats could pay dividends
comes across as too much of a public school smoothie to appeal to the red wall i think
Farage? Exactly where he was strongest in 2015 and 2019.
I think Hunt has reversed about a 40% of the risk premium the mini budget has caused, Truss being summarily dumped and replaced with Rishi would get us to about an 80% reversal and an OBR paper showing debt falling within 3 years would get us back to where we were.
So between 5-7 weeks of depressed bond values, with average maturity this has cost the nation between £9-11bn in additional debt servicing costs.
Barty will be along soon to tell us it's all Gordon Brown's fault.
Actually, where is Barty? This must be a very difficult time for him tbf.
I think Hunt has reversed about a 40% of the risk premium the mini budget has caused, Truss being summarily dumped and replaced with Rishi would get us to about an 80% reversal and an OBR paper showing debt falling within 3 years would get us back to where we were.
So between 5-7 weeks of depressed bond values, with average maturity this has cost the nation between £9-11bn in additional debt servicing costs.
The increase to debt servicing costs only applies to new issues, so it won't be as much as that, surely?
All the Farage talk seems to forget a couple or three things; firstly he is one of the most unpopular politicians of all time. He has his adoring crowd, but beyond that he is very widely disliked (not even 'polarising', which implies an even split of opinion - a clear majority on any polling dislike and distrust him), and even a lot of the people who have voted for his parties in the past are probably coming round to seeing him for the grifter he is.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
In May 2019 Farage's party was polling 25 to 30%.
The average 2019 Tory voter would vote for Farage over Hunt, except the minority of Remainers
I'm struggling to see a downside here - so Farage creates a new party - attracting the right-wing former Tory voters,,
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
Richard Tice runs Reform UK, Hamilton has the pitiful Kipper remnants
I quite like Tice on a personal level. But he is a lost cause as far as getting any significant numbers of seats in Parliament.
Needs something new. Tice has made no impression at all in by elections or at local level. A red wall focussed effort and perhaps heavily concentrated in the Essex, East Greater London and Kent seats could pay dividends
comes across as too much of a public school smoothie to appeal to the red wall i think
Farage? Exactly where he was strongest in 2015 and 2019.
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design. It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
Fair point
Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.
The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
Well come on then somebody, argue back.
Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...
The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.
A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).
So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.
That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.
Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
“A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive ”
Virtually pays for itself on its own or can be used as a blended approach.
Am I the one with needy bleatings. You are just too damn rude and ornery about politics Ben. I came by my doubts about it when reaction from charities for the needy to the energy price cap was they hated it, for all its massive expense it doesn’t protect the most in need enough, and that should be the whole point.
A few weeks ago RCS shared adverts where the government were boasting about the immense scale the scheme costs, so it wasn’t “whimsical” how it happened - Team Truss genuinely went to be add night dreaming how every voter would love them for this policy.
Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…
Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…
Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.
What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)
There is a substantial problem if she falls on her sword in front of the Queen. Ordinarily the PM would be asked their opinion about a suitable successor. How can Truss answer that?
I think Hunt has reversed about a 40% of the risk premium the mini budget has caused, Truss being summarily dumped and replaced with Rishi would get us to about an 80% reversal and an OBR paper showing debt falling within 3 years would get us back to where we were.
So between 5-7 weeks of depressed bond values, with average maturity this has cost the nation between £9-11bn in additional debt servicing costs.
Money well spent if it gets us a cabinet that won't be chasing unicorns.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
Stay as it is unless Wallace is the coronation candidate of a unity Cabinet, all other options are worse
Wallace was a strong remainer. Why do you see him as more of a unity candidate than Sunak? You seem to think that Sunak (who voted leave) is toxic to the ERGers but I don't think this is so.
Toxic to fantasists whether ERG, Truss or Boris fans rather than ERG, Truss or Boris fans in general.
Fantasists vs realists is the biggest divide in the Tory party, not remain vs leave or left v right. Sunak is on the right and a leaver, but not forgiven for being a realist.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
She just needs to resign. There's simply no chance of her staying on as PM after an election.
The only thing standing in the way of her resignation is an inability to decide upon a successor.
Suppose she steps out into Downing Street at 5pm and announces her resignation as party leader. She'd face longer in Downing Street waiting for another leadership election to conclude then she would already have been there. I don't think that can happen.
So there needs to be a replacement ready immediately. If the backbenchers can't settle on one then the Cabinet have to do so.
Why are you so concerned by Farage's dipsh*ttery. He is a political opponent of yours. Jeremy Hunt is your man. Farage is your enemy.
Opponent. Not enemy.
Enemy is an appropriate description of Nigel Farage for anyone who believes in fair, centrist democratic politics that align with the best traditions of this country. Farage is a right-wing divisive populist in the mould of Donald Trump, who, like Trump draws the admiration and support of Putin. He is therefore an enemy to the British way of life IMO.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
"...some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him" Lol!
You think that would make him tow the government line? Honestly, we're not in Russia yet.
well maybe he will have to be careful not to go near open windows lol
It's the sort of thing my (endearingly naive) 90 yo father-in-law would say: "I suspect some high ups in the govt have had a quiet word with him".
He was of the opinion in the spring that Johnson was only still PM because 'no one else would want the job'.
so you dont think high ups in govt occasionally have quiet words with people....now thats naive
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
If the polls and the £ and the FTSE go up, I am sure they could cope with it.
Everyone knows that the hard Brexit is going to have to be undone; while the grown-ups are in charge they may as well start on that, too.
Rejoin the single market and restore free movement and that is it for the Tories, they not only lose by a landslide but Farage's party replaces them as the main opposition
It would not happen. Brexit is no longer a salient issue.
If the Tories rejoin the single market and add all EU regulations and EU free movement again, then most Leave voters will move en masse from Tory to Farage exactly as they did in Spring 2019. Anyone who says otherwise is clueless
It won't be Farage. He is a spent force. The movement you describe may well happen but it will be to whoever can pick up Farage's mantel. I have no idea who is even leading Reform these days. Or it could be Fox with Reclaim.
In the end it will still make no difference in terms of who forms the next government. It will only affect the size of the magnitude of the Tory defeat. Neiter Reform or Reclaim will get more than a couple of seats - if that.
Richard Tice runs Reform UK, Hamilton has the pitiful Kipper remnants
I quite like Tice on a personal level. But he is a lost cause as far as getting any significant numbers of seats in Parliament.
Needs something new. Tice has made no impression at all in by elections or at local level. A red wall focussed effort and perhaps heavily concentrated in the Essex, East Greater London and Kent seats could pay dividends
comes across as too much of a public school smoothie to appeal to the red wall i think
Farage? Exactly where he was strongest in 2015 and 2019.
no tice
Oh im referring to a Farage led new party effort in those areas. Tice isn't ever going to be a player
I think Hunt has reversed about a 40% of the risk premium the mini budget has caused, Truss being summarily dumped and replaced with Rishi would get us to about an 80% reversal and an OBR paper showing debt falling within 3 years would get us back to where we were.
So between 5-7 weeks of depressed bond values, with average maturity this has cost the nation between £9-11bn in additional debt servicing costs.
The increase to debt servicing costs only applies to new issues, so it won't be as much as that, surely?
From September 23rd to October 31st I think around £40bn in debt would need to be issued (rollover and new debt), at the peak of the risk premium long dated yields were well over 1% higher, UK debt has unusually long average maturity and around a quarter of debt is sold with an RPI(!) index link and even those were trading at below face value.
I think Hunt has reversed about a 40% of the risk premium the mini budget has caused, Truss being summarily dumped and replaced with Rishi would get us to about an 80% reversal and an OBR paper showing debt falling within 3 years would get us back to where we were.
So between 5-7 weeks of depressed bond values, with average maturity this has cost the nation between £9-11bn in additional debt servicing costs.
The increase to debt servicing costs only applies to new issues, so it won't be as much as that, surely?
DMO says we issued about £30bn in gilts since 1 Sept.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
Stay as it is unless Wallace is the coronation candidate of a unity Cabinet, all other options are worse
Wallace was a strong remainer. Why do you see him as more of a unity candidate than Sunak? You seem to think that Sunak (who voted leave) is toxic to the ERGers but I don't think this is so.
Toxic to fantasists whether ERG, Truss or Boris fans rather than ERG, Truss or Boris fans in general.
Fantasists vs realists is the biggest divide in the Tory party, not remain vs leave or left v right. Sunak is on the right and a leaver, but not forgiven for being a realist.
That is a very good analysis. Although I still believe Brexit was pointless, I have no problem supporting someone like Sunak. The Conservative Party needs to get the grown-ups fully back in charge. The Labour Party has managed it. The Tories can do the same.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
Stay as it is unless Wallace is the coronation candidate of a unity Cabinet, all other options are worse
Wallace was a strong remainer. Why do you see him as more of a unity candidate than Sunak? You seem to think that Sunak (who voted leave) is toxic to the ERGers but I don't think this is so.
Toxic to fantasists whether ERG, Truss or Boris fans rather than ERG, Truss or Boris fans in general.
Fantasists vs realists is the biggest divide in the Tory party, not remain vs leave or left v right. Sunak is on the right and a leaver, but not forgiven for being a realist.
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
I commend your optimism to the House.
Good luck with the increased mortgage rates, the foreclosures, the cumulative inflation, balance of trade issues and the austerity package. Even against the hopeless and hapless Starmer you have a tall order ahead of you.
Crushing Putin, or a war with Argentina is your bet hope. But never say never.
What exactly have you got against Starmer FFS?
Is the complete destruction of the Corbynite Wing, the move back to a credible party of government and 30 point poll leads not enough for you?
You are as ludicrous as the risible Owls on this matter.
His utterly risible Brexit policy which apes Johnsonian pandering to RedWall bigotry.
Ah, I guess you realised the issue with your post. Indeed, the reason the government hasn't been telling people how to save on gas and electric is that they know they'll be accused of telling old people not to put the heating on etc.
It's made me think, achieving one's lifelong dream or dearest ambition might not be all it's cracked up to be. Imagine reaching the top and then making such a mess of things within days that you (and everyone else) wish you had never got there.
There is an old proverb that is apt: "Be careful what you wish for. You might get it."
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
Couldn’t agree more. He went completely hysterical about gas prices.
EON has informed me that my power prices go up 4 fold at the end of this month. If I was on benefits and/or a very low wage as opposed to a bit of a shit one I would be hysterical.
Lewis was more on the button than Truss with her no household will pay more than £2.5k a year bullshit; coming in at £6k pa for me currently.
:Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government.
That's similar to the kind of figures Cameron was getting before the 2010 GE, and a lot higher than Labour has got since that GE. To my mind, it seems rather generous to Labour, but if Starmer can maintain good ratings on that measure he's home and dry.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
Martin Lewis would do a much better job of running the country than the clueless bunch currently pretending to .
My 86 year old MiL is sitting in her modern house covered in blankets and cold but too scared to put her heating on because of the hysterical nonsense in the media led by Martin Lewis. It was irresponsible.
It wasn't irrepsonisble. What is irresponsible (sorry for this) is her family not explaining and helping her get things set up to be as economic as possible.
I've already done that at the MiL's. My difficulty was getting the boiler set up correctly to run at maximum efficiency as the documentation doesn't tell you how nor how to calculate what the most efficient rate is. I eventually found a youtube video for the model that told me what I needed to do.
Farage, Tice and Hamilton have no chance at the moment.
Farage is a spent force, his time is up. Tice seems reasonable enough on a personal level, but I don't think he'll be able to get it together and I don't think anyone will want to listen. Hamilton is a joke. I'm surprised UKIP is still going, but there we are.
:Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government.
That's similar to the kind of figures Cameron was getting before the 2010 GE. To my mind, That seems rather generous to Labour, but if Starmer can maintain good ratings on that measure he's home and dry.
Labour source: "We were hoping to hear the Prime Minister explain if this was all worth demolishing the economy for. But it seems the lady’s not for turning up.”
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
I commend your optimism to the House.
Good luck with the increased mortgage rates, the foreclosures, the cumulative inflation, balance of trade issues and the austerity package. Even against the hopeless and hapless Starmer you have a tall order ahead of you.
Crushing Putin, or a war with Argentina is your bet hope. But never say never.
What exactly have you got against Starmer FFS?
Is the complete destruction of the Corbynite Wing, the move back to a credible party of government and 30 point poll leads not enough for you?
You are as ludicrous as the risible Owls on this matter.
His utterly risible Brexit policy which apes Johnsonian pandering to RedWall bigotry.
Ah, I guess you realised the issue with your post. Indeed, the reason the government hasn't been telling people how to save on gas and electric is that they know they'll be accused of telling old people not to put the heating on etc.
Why are you so concerned by Farage's dipsh*ttery. He is a political opponent of yours. Jeremy Hunt is your man. Farage is your enemy.
Opponent. Not enemy.
Enemy is an appropriate description of Nigel Farage for anyone who believes in fair, centrist democratic politics that align with the best traditions of this country. Farage is a right-wing divisive populist in the mould of Donald Trump, who, like Trump draws the admiration and support of Putin. He is therefore an enemy to the British way of life IMO.
Nah that's rubbish. Just because you don't like someone does not make them an enemy. You don't get to define what the best traditions of this country are any more than I do. And he certainly isn't an enemy to the British way of life - whatever the hell you might think that might be.
Tory MPs are being told Truss will get Hunt to answer Starmer’s urgent question. If she sits mute next to him, that will be her vote of confidence in her Chancellor...but it may also fuel calls for a vote of no confidence in herself.
If Hunt answers the question surely it just confirms he is the PM in all but name.
And it confirms that Truss needs to go asap.
Equally Hunt hasn't been selected by anyone except Truss so that isn't exactly representing any version of democracy when the new DeFacto leader came last in the last leadership contest.
If Hunt is now made PM by coronation there would be civil war in the party, he knows that which is why he is happy staying Chancellor with Truss his puppet PM.
The ERG would also nominate a candidate against him unless the 1922 cttee put an absurd figure of say 150 Tory MPs required to nominate a leadership candidate
Seriously @HYUFD, what do you think should happen now? I respect your views on this.
Stay as it is unless Wallace is the coronation candidate of a unity Cabinet, all other options are worse
Wallace was a strong remainer. Why do you see him as more of a unity candidate than Sunak? You seem to think that Sunak (who voted leave) is toxic to the ERGers but I don't think this is so.
Toxic to fantasists whether ERG, Truss or Boris fans rather than ERG, Truss or Boris fans in general.
Fantasists vs realists is the biggest divide in the Tory party, not remain vs leave or left v right. Sunak is on the right and a leaver, but not forgiven for being a realist.
Wallace is a realist as well though.
Seems to be, but doesn't seem to have ever uttered a word about anything other than defence so hasn't upset many (yet).
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
Martin Lewis would do a much better job of running the country than the clueless bunch currently pretending to .
not really he just wanted help to people whatever the cost as if there was a constant magic money tree
He was pointing out that given X amount of money all of which is spent on food, heat and rent there are very hard choices to make if all of them have large increases in cost/ price.
I think Hunt has reversed about a 40% of the risk premium the mini budget has caused, Truss being summarily dumped and replaced with Rishi would get us to about an 80% reversal and an OBR paper showing debt falling within 3 years would get us back to where we were.
So between 5-7 weeks of depressed bond values, with average maturity this has cost the nation between £9-11bn in additional debt servicing costs.
The increase to debt servicing costs only applies to new issues, so it won't be as much as that, surely?
From September 23rd to October 31st I think around £40bn in debt would need to be issued (rollover and new debt), at the peak of the risk premium long dated yields were well over 1% higher, UK debt has unusually long average maturity and around a quarter of debt is sold with an RPI(!) index link and even those were trading at below face value.
Ah, OK, yes, over the full term of the debt. But it's not much in annual terms.
:Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government.
That's similar to the kind of figures Cameron was getting before the 2010 GE, and a lot higher than Labour has got since that GE. To my mind, it seems rather generous to Labour, but if Starmer can maintain good ratings on that measure he's home and dry.
:Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government.
That's similar to the kind of figures Cameron was getting before the 2010 GE. To my mind, That seems rather generous to Labour, but if Starmer can maintain good ratings on that measure he's home and dry.
IFS on Scexit plan: “is highly likely an independent Scotland would need to make bigger cuts to public spending or bigger increases to taxes in the first decade following independence than the rest of the UK would need to.”
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design. It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
Fair point
Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.
The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
Well come on then somebody, argue back.
Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...
The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.
A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).
So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.
That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.
Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
The best way to do universality is to do it literally universal. Flat grant to every household, as Sunak originally proposed with the £400, but at whatever rate is deemed appropriate. But keep the unit rate as high as it goes, giving the incentive to cut usage still.
Poor households tend to use less energy. If they end up with a reduced or negligible bill then that's OK, they can use that money for any other spending they may have. Richer, bigger households tend to use a lot more energy, so while they'd get the same grant they'd be paying a lot more unit rate.
Anyone heating a personal swimming pool or something similar shouldn't have a reduced unit rate to make that more affordable.
They're fucked whatever happens. They're fucked if they stick with Truss and fucked if they switch leader. They're fucked if they U-turn and fucked if they don't. They're fucked if they hold a general election and fucked if they delay it.
There's no good options left. It's fucked all the way down.
Utter bollocks. Who the fuck knows what 2 years of solid, not-scaring-the-horses Tory economic management of the economy does to the polling? Especially if Starmer continues to look flat-footed on this.
Tories going long with a solid PM is still their best hope.
I commend your optimism to the House.
Good luck with the increased mortgage rates, the foreclosures, the cumulative inflation, balance of trade issues and the austerity package. Even against the hopeless and hapless Starmer you have a tall order ahead of you.
Crushing Putin, or a war with Argentina is your bet hope. But never say never.
What exactly have you got against Starmer FFS?
Is the complete destruction of the Corbynite Wing, the move back to a credible party of government and 30 point poll leads not enough for you?
You are as ludicrous as the risible Owls on this matter.
His utterly risible Brexit policy which apes Johnsonian pandering to RedWall bigotry.
What would you suggest instead?
The BINO by stealth narrative that our shiny new pragmatic Conservative Government will be promoting over the next two and a half years.
I called the unaffordability of the energy package this morning. I said withdrawal of that would be the ultimate humiliation for Truss and it is. WATO was painful. I am genuinely concerned about her welfare.
i blame Martin Lewis myself by scaring people to death and putting massive pressure on the govt. Saw him interviewed today and he looks a chastened man....i think some high ups in the govt will have had quiet words with him
Martin Lewis would do a much better job of running the country than the clueless bunch currently pretending to .
not really he just wanted help to people whatever the cost as if there was a constant magic money tree
He was pointing out that given X amount of money all of which is spent on food, heat and rent there are very hard choices to make if all of them have large increases in cost/ price.
Wasn't he also doing his best to disabuse people of the impression (furthered by Ms T) that the £2.5K was a maximum cap rather tnan an indicative one for a notional typical situation?
Jeremy Hunt is poised to announce that the energy price guarantee will only remain universal *until April*
It will then become targeted and capped
Govt helped by falling gas prices
@MrHarryCole first highlighted changes this morning
That's curtains for Truss, and probably the Tories for a generation (a real one, not a Scottish one). Good luck telling middle and high earners they have to pay higher taxes to subsidise other people's energy bills while their own go through the roof.
It is the right thing to do and let's give @MoonRabbit the credit for criticising the universal nature of the energy relief
The universal nature was owing to its being an emergency response, and anything else might take too much time to design. It's not a particularly good critique, as if you're giving too much away to the well off it could be recovered through tax - and the entire thing was due for review in the spring in any event.
Fair point
Other view points are available, not just Nigel’s. The “only thing that could have been done in a hurry” argument has a few questions hanging over it, firstly how long has government been working on a plan, a think tank came up with an alternative so at what point were alternatives even considered. And why has Truss been selling it as for two winters and beyond. She’s not been shy to mention that.
The bottom line is todays change to energy plan is great economically, the gilt markets, but not great as political message and poll recovery. So unlike Nigel’s view I claim Truss government chose the path for deliberate political reasons, to hell with economics, markets, value for money, it’s regressive nature up front unless mitigated. It was a political choice to bung everyone a handout and not even target the most in need.
Well come on then somebody, argue back.
Why won’t anybody argue with me anymore. I can’t be right all the time.
no one wants to argue with my take on this? 😕
Sorry, I was too busy living a life to respond to your needy bleatings but now I have a few moments...
The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.
A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).
So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.
That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.
Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
“A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive ”
Virtually pays for itself on its own or can be used as a blended approach.
Am I the one with needy bleatings. You are just too damn rude and ornery about politics Ben. I came by my doubts about it when reaction from charities for the needy to the energy price cap was they hated it, for all its massive expense it doesn’t protect the most in need enough, and that should be the whole point.
A few weeks ago RCS shared adverts where the government were boasting about the immense scale the scheme costs, so it wasn’t “whimsical” how it happened - Team Truss genuinely went to be add night dreaming how every voter would love them for this policy.
Ok.
First, let me apologise for my rudeness; 'bleatings' was unkind.
I would just say that you made two posts asking why no one had responded to your earlier post. I make lots of posts that I think deserve a response - most sink without trace. That's just the way it is.
Secondly, re the NIESR paper. It sounds wonderful but unless I have missed something there is absolutely no explanation of how a variable price cap would be calculated. How do you determine my cap versus your cap? Individual income? Individual wealth? Household income/wealth? Do you factor in the size of the household? How many children? How many vulnerable adults - old, disabled, ill?
It's either going to be very crude or very complicated and expensive.
Fantasy politics question: let’s say Liz decides tonight that she just can’t carry on, it’s too much and she’s going to go of her own volition…. And Jeremy is running the show anyway…
Goes to make tearful statement, mea maxima culpa, I never meant for any of this to happen but I know the country needs me to go…
Goes to the palace, tenders her resignation, tells KCIII that the person who is most likely to command confidence of the House is Jeremy Hunt.
What does KCIII do? Does he need someone to ring round Tory MPs to check they would back Hunt? Obviously Hunt is not Tory leader yet. Could he be both PM and Chancellor for a time while Tory Party leadership is determined? I know there’s no constitutional bar to being both (didn’t Gladstone do both jobs?)
There is a substantial problem if she falls on her sword in front of the Queen. Ordinarily the PM would be asked their opinion about a suitable successor. How can Truss answer that?
That would probably upset the church as well
The Queen is in St George's Chapel, aiui, six feet under .
Unless Charles has suddenly self-identified differently, which *would* put a cat amongst the pigeons in some areas of the Church - which would adapt surprisingly rapidly.
I think Hunt has reversed about a 40% of the risk premium the mini budget has caused, Truss being summarily dumped and replaced with Rishi would get us to about an 80% reversal and an OBR paper showing debt falling within 3 years would get us back to where we were.
So between 5-7 weeks of depressed bond values, with average maturity this has cost the nation between £9-11bn in additional debt servicing costs.
The increase to debt servicing costs only applies to new issues, so it won't be as much as that, surely?
From September 23rd to October 31st I think around £40bn in debt would need to be issued (rollover and new debt), at the peak of the risk premium long dated yields were well over 1% higher, UK debt has unusually long average maturity and around a quarter of debt is sold with an RPI(!) index link and even those were trading at below face value.
Ah, OK, yes, over the full term of the debt. But it's not much in annual terms.
A test of loyalty, given Penny veered off piste a couple of weeks ago? The anointment of a successor? The scuppering of a potential successor? A bit of at least two of those things?
Interesting selection.
Last roll of the dice by Brexiters, fearing a Hunt coronation.
There’s two years till the next election and a lot can happen . The public might be more forgiving if the economy is improving and I’m sure there will be lots of pre-election goodies dished out by no 10 at that point .
One thing though I’m 100% on is if Truss remains PM then they’re toast .
The post-ERM crisis of September 1992 and the subsequent 1997 GE result hardly provides the Tories with much reason for optimism!
As much as history repeats it also never plays out quite the same way.
The Tories will lose the next election, nothing can stop that now but they will clearly change leaders soon (maybe as early as tomorrow) sop Truss will be history. And Starmer is no Blair and Labour are far, far weaker and more divided as a party compared to New Labour in the mid 90s.
Economically and politically it all feels much more like 1974 than 1997. I could be completely wrong but I still a small overall majority for Labour is more likely than the biggest landslide in British political history and the Tories official opposition status to the SNP...
I think a small Labour majority would be for the best. It would help keep them "honest"
That's a reasonable view, Bev, but as we all know, under FPTP it is very difficult to vore for a small majority.
Farage, Tice and Hamilton have no chance at the moment.
Farage is a spent force, his time is up. Tice seems reasonable enough on a personal level, but I don't think he'll be able to get it together and I don't think anyone will want to listen. Hamilton is a joke. I'm surprised UKIP is still going, but there we are.
None of them will get to 5%, let alone 30%.
If Farage keeps sticking his fascist head up, the media that opposes his nastiness needs to start quoting some of his positions on Putin, the world leader he said he "most admired"
@RenataKonkoly and 3 others Wrong analogy. America also had a humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. No one in America sees that country as part of America.
Crimea *is* seen as a crucial part of Russia by Russia, much as Hawaii is seen as a crucial part of America.
:Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government.
That's similar to the kind of figures Cameron was getting before the 2010 GE, and a lot higher than Labour has got since that GE. To my mind, it seems rather generous to Labour, but if Starmer can maintain good ratings on that measure he's home and dry.
No, LibDem, although as things stand I could vote for Labour if the constituency candidate was sensible.
Perhaps the more interesting question will be whether the events of the past few days, and in the days to come, will show that some sanity is at last leaking back into the Conservative Party. We shall see.
:Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government.
That's similar to the kind of figures Cameron was getting before the 2010 GE, and a lot higher than Labour has got since that GE. To my mind, it seems rather generous to Labour, but if Starmer can maintain good ratings on that measure he's home and dry.
All the Farage talk seems to forget a couple or three things; firstly he is one of the most unpopular politicians of all time. He has his adoring crowd, but beyond that he is very widely disliked (not even 'polarising', which implies an even split of opinion - a clear majority on any polling dislike and distrust him), and even a lot of the people who have voted for his parties in the past are probably coming round to seeing him for the grifter he is.
Secondly, outside of the European elections he is a polling-booth flop, and councillors elected under his banner have tended to do a pretty appalling job.
I don't think any 'party' (the guy's seen through more parties than 10 Downing Street in Covid) that he fronts would definitely get a boost - he's a much cleverer media user than Lozza et al - but would hit a pretty rigid ceiling. And that's the third point - one grifter frontman doesn't make a party, unless he achieves a Trump-style takeover of the Conservatives - which tbh is not likely.
In May 2019 Farage's party was polling 25 to 30%.
The average 2019 Tory voter would vote for Farage over Hunt, except the minority of Remainers
And in 2019 he won how many seats? But anyway, the country has moved on from Brexit. He has lost salience, and we are collectively tiring of chancers and self-publicists.
No we aren't, if the Tories betray Brexit then that is it for them. Farage's party will replace them, you have no idea of the fury and wrath of the average Leave voting Conservative if a Hunt government restores free movement and rejoins the single market.
Farage ONLY did not win seats in Dec 2019 as Boris replaced May and delivered a hard Brexit deal, had May stayed leader then the Brexit Party would have come second at the last general election to a Corbyn minority government
Nobody is betraying Brexit. Brexit is done! Even Starmer's Labour have embraced that single act of halfwittery.
But what was the definition of Brexit? There was no mention of jettisoning everything until May decided "Brexit means Brexit", without knowing what that meant. And Johnson discovered that demanding the hardest of hard Brexits would allow him to choose some expensive wallpaper.
People are getting more concerned about paying the mortgage than they are about receiving their blue passport. Brexit has been trumped by the fear of poverty.
"Betray Brexit", given that we have left, is one of the more half witted concepts in British politics, which is not exactly short on half witted concepts.
Is Brexit some sort of deity that we have to bow down to forever ? HYUFD already recognises one deity; why does he require another?
Comments
Some bits you can see in the photos...
"I must emphasise showing cabinet unity on these measures is critical to showing the stability we need".
"Comms discipline is vital - the detail of these announcements must not be made public before the press conference later."
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1582002416425127936
Farage ONLY did not win seats in Dec 2019 as Boris replaced May and delivered a hard Brexit deal, had May stayed leader then the Brexit Party would have come second at the last general election to a Corbyn minority government
We on the leave side won and the victory is just about bedded in. Hence we can safely vote Labour again and it’s more or less their turn anyway.
The dead-in- the-water Corbyn is another model for such a failure.
However, whoever takes over will probably have to have an election no later than next spring IMO so that's the one calculation that may keep the Tories from wielding the knife for now... That said, I think she'll be gone this week.
I keep being told by the Nits that SLAB are a busted flush.
Is the complete destruction of the Corbynite Wing, the move back to a credible party of government and 30 point poll leads not enough for you?
You are as ludicrous as the risible Owls on this matter.
The universality element hasn't been removed; the duration has been cut with a review to take place.
A universal cap is by far the most efficient way to address this. Means testing is administratively very expensive and has it's own anomalies e.g. I will benefit (disability) despite being a higher rate tax payer. See also the odd cut-offs that occur and disincentives to work (e.g. those just on UC would get energy cost support, those earning £1 more won't).
So a universal cap is the efficient approach. Pay for it by raising progressive tax rates (e.g. standardise NI on *all* income and/or raise the higher tax rates and introduce some kind of wealth tax.
That's the way to ensure those that need the support get it. Others like me will see their fuel prices capped but taxes go up. So be it.
Oh, and those that argue that the price cap does not incentivise energy efficiency should note that even the capped rate is twice what people were paying 18 months ago.
Only on PB.
You think that would make him tow the government line? Honestly, we're not in Russia yet.
I am not holding my breath for better under Starmer.
The conclusion that we came to is that it didn't. Its model was far too simple.
But what was the definition of Brexit? There was no mention of jettisoning everything until May decided "Brexit means Brexit", without knowing what that meant. And Johnson discovered that demanding the hardest of hard Brexits would allow him to choose some expensive wallpaper.
People are getting more concerned about paying the mortgage than they are about receiving their blue passport. Brexit has been trumped by the fear of poverty.
https://youtu.be/bpJNmkB36nE
A red wall focussed effort and perhaps heavily concentrated in the Essex, East Greater London and Kent seats could pay dividends
So between 5-7 weeks of depressed bond values, with average maturity this has cost the nation between £9-11bn in additional debt servicing costs.
You are a loyal Tory, show a bit of loyalty.
He was of the opinion in the spring that Johnson was only still PM because 'no one else would want the job'.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/liz-truss-mocked-after-dodging-commons-showdown-with-starmer_uk_634d5b12e4b0e376dc0ee4b2
Actually, where is Barty? This must be a very difficult time for him tbf.
Virtually pays for itself on its own or can be used as a blended approach.
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/A-Variable-Energy-Price-Cap.pdf
Am I the one with needy bleatings. You are just too damn rude and ornery about politics Ben. I came by my doubts about it when reaction from charities for the needy to the energy price cap was they hated it, for all its massive expense it doesn’t protect the most in need enough, and that should be the whole point.
A few weeks ago RCS shared adverts where the government were boasting about the immense scale the scheme costs, so it wasn’t “whimsical” how it happened - Team Truss genuinely went to be add night dreaming how every voter would love them for this policy.
Fantasists vs realists is the biggest divide in the Tory party, not remain vs leave or left v right. Sunak is on the right and a leaver, but not forgiven for being a realist.
Suppose she steps out into Downing Street at 5pm and announces her resignation as party leader. She'd face longer in Downing Street waiting for another leadership election to conclude then she would already have been there. I don't think that can happen.
So there needs to be a replacement ready immediately. If the backbenchers can't settle on one then the Cabinet have to do so.
- Highest figure Labour have recorded since losing in 2010
- In fact - last opposition leader to register scores like this was Cameron. Just before he won.
This is significant
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1582008617318109186
I guess it depends when you start counting.
Lewis was more on the button than Truss with her no household will pay more than £2.5k a year bullshit; coming in at £6k pa for me currently.
New from @IpsosUK
:Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government.
That's similar to the kind of figures Cameron was getting before the 2010 GE, and a lot higher than Labour has got since that GE. To my mind, it seems rather generous to Labour, but if Starmer can maintain good ratings on that measure he's home and dry.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1582008617318109186
I've already done that at the MiL's. My difficulty was getting the boiler set up correctly to run at maximum efficiency as the documentation doesn't tell you how nor how to calculate what the most efficient rate is. I eventually found a youtube video for the model that told me what I needed to do.
Farage is a spent force, his time is up.
Tice seems reasonable enough on a personal level, but I don't think he'll be able to get it together and I don't think anyone will want to listen.
Hamilton is a joke. I'm surprised UKIP is still going, but there we are.
None of them will get to 5%, let alone 30%.
https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/1582011544530956289
Poor households tend to use less energy. If they end up with a reduced or negligible bill then that's OK, they can use that money for any other spending they may have. Richer, bigger households tend to use a lot more energy, so while they'd get the same grant they'd be paying a lot more unit rate.
Anyone heating a personal swimming pool or something similar shouldn't have a reduced unit rate to make that more affordable.
Edit: Ah, I see TUD has already pointed that out.
First, let me apologise for my rudeness; 'bleatings' was unkind.
I would just say that you made two posts asking why no one had responded to your earlier post. I make lots of posts that I think deserve a response - most sink without trace. That's just the way it is.
Secondly, re the NIESR paper. It sounds wonderful but unless I have missed something there is absolutely no explanation of how a variable price cap would be calculated. How do you determine my cap versus your cap? Individual income? Individual wealth? Household income/wealth? Do you factor in the size of the household? How many children? How many vulnerable adults - old, disabled, ill?
It's either going to be very crude or very complicated and expensive.
Unless Charles has suddenly self-identified differently, which *would* put a cat amongst the pigeons in some areas of the Church - which would adapt surprisingly rapidly.
Still I suppose it doesn’t really matter anymore.
@elonmusk
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Wrong analogy. America also had a humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. No one in America sees that country as part of America.
Crimea *is* seen as a crucial part of Russia by Russia, much as Hawaii is seen as a crucial part of America.
Товарищ Musk !
Герой Новороссии !
Perhaps the more interesting question will be whether the events of the past few days, and in the days to come, will show that some sanity is at last leaking back into the Conservative Party. We shall see.
Is Brexit some sort of deity that we have to bow down to forever ? HYUFD already recognises one deity; why does he require another?