politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP
Comments
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Baring in mind that Cameron is a self-professed pro-European who wants to stay in the EU at all costs it also makes sense as a political position from UKIPs perspective and is just further developing their narrative on how mendacious the establishment parties are.kle4 said:
Except they don't. I think the British would vote to get out if offered the chance, but many in UKIP have made clear in recent months that they do not believe a referendum organized by Cameron or anyone not actively campaigning for Out would succeed due to, presumably, the 'mainstream' parties and press twisting things, which apparently the British public would fall for.rottenborough said:
I think [UKIP] assume that the British would vote to get out if offered the chance.alex said:Is UKIP policy actually to leave the EU, or to have a referendum on leaving the EU? Because leaving the EU is generally a pre-requisite to delivery of most of their populist policies (it's apparently largely paying for their tax cuts, and obviously is necessary for their immigration policies). A referendum is not enough if they get the wrong outcome.
UKIP are not interested in electoral administrative devices as the be all and end all of the European issue they want withdrawal and to do that they must discredit the pro-european parties. It would be absurd for them to applaud the offer of someone on the other side of the debate. Did Salmond for a minute praise Cameron?
Whatever they believe about the outcome (and I would imagine they would believe they could get an OUT vote) of the election backing Cameron would be bad politics.0 -
Hooom! I doubt if he'll go that far; that would mean compromising himself. RN wouldn't dirty himself with such thoughts.another_richard said:
I take it you would encourage all former Conservative voters in Heywood & Middleton to vote UKIP at the byelection so as to damage Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.Jonathan said:Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
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He keeps denying it, but I recall a recent piece of his on the issue flat out admitted his loyalty to the Tories is about on par with a normal voter's, very contingent on certain highly specific policy areas, when you'd think an elected representative for a party would feel a bit more solid a sense of loyalty.HYUFD said:Interesting that Reckless went to Marlborough and Oxford and was Daniel Hannan's best man at his wedding and visa versa, Carswell was an usher at Reckless' wedding and is godfather to Hannan's children and visa versa. Could Hannan be one to watch? If so, he could be a highly effective UKIP leader
If David Cameron had not offered an In/Out referendum, I would not have been able to fight the recent European election as a Conservative. But he did; and Ukip is in denial about it.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100283493/so-why-dont-you-join-ukip-hannan/
So by his own admission, his commitment to the Tories is hanging on by a thread. One misstep on an issue he cares about deeply, and he would have left, and presumably still might even if a few months ago he was stating it was not on the cards.0 -
I wonder if Hannan was waiting for the Scottish referendum result before joining UKIP where he obviously belongs.HYUFD said:Interesting that Reckless went to Marlborough and Oxford and was Daniel Hannan's best man at his wedding and visa versa, Carswell was an usher at Reckless' wedding and is godfather to Hannan's children and visa versa. Could Hannan be one to watch? If so, he could be a highly effective UKIP leader
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Very good point. It could be that we're witnessing some sort of entryism here. I can't believe that the likes of Carswell and Reckless take Farage remotely seriously. Their plan could be to infiltrate UKIP, oust Farage and remould UKIP in their own image of Tory rightism.HYUFD said:Interesting that Reckless went to Marlborough and Oxford and was Daniel Hannan's best man at his wedding and visa versa, Carswell was an usher at Reckless' wedding and is godfather to Hannan's children and visa versa. Could Hannan be one to watch? If so, he could be a highly effective UKIP leader
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The best way to stop Labour wining another general election is to disintegrate its wwc "our family's always voted Labour, they're the party of the working class" heritage vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I don't think so. The biggest help to Labour at the moment is UKIP. A UKIP victory in Heywood & Middleton would be embarrassing for Labour in the short term, but would help Labour at the GE.another_richard said:I take it you would encourage all former Conservative voters in Heywood & Middleton to vote UKIP at the byelection so as to damage Labour.
The SNP have done that in Scotland, its possible that UKIP can do that in England and Wales.
If UKIP win in H&M Labour will suffer a permanent wound.
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The loss of Carswell was a big blow to the Tories but Reckless very much less so, particularly as they have a big chance of actually defeating Reckless at the by-election.0
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What, RN? You actually believe that the coalition is practising good government? Ho, ho!Richard_Nabavi said:
To be honest I'm not particularly fussed about the Conservative Party per se - that is just a means to an end. It's the prospect of going back to a period, which could be quite a long period, of bad government, in circumstances which are going to be particularly difficult, which is my concern. I wouldn't be so worried if Labour looked vaguely in a state fit to govern even in their own terms. They don't.Jonathan said:It's all very Tea Party esque. It will be painful initially, but if the Tories lose the right - and it doesn't kill them - they will be better off long term.
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That always makes me smile. Cameron failing next May, and Milliband taking over is all the fault of Farage and Carswell and Reckless. Nothing to do with Dave actually being shite.MarkHopkins said:
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?manofkent2014 said:
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.GIN1138 said:
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.hunchman said:Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
Damn, now I'll get called a pompous arse for daring to insult Dave!
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Rother Valley, Dudley, PenistoneSpeedy said:For a Labour defector I would guess at eastern and southern seats.
However the're so few.
Just the 2 Luton seats, 2 Southampton seats, Plymouth and Slough.
Oh and Great Grimsby.
http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/
"...at the European elections in May, across 51 authorities in the north-west and north-east, Ukip finished ahead of Labour in 18 and as its main rival in 30."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/nigel-farage-ukip-peasants-revolt-westminster-working-class-britons0 -
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m
Tory councillor in Rochester + Strood has also defected according to local Tory association secretary0 -
One thing that should be noted about Reckless, and which makes him different to the standard PPE type, is that he didn't get given a safe seat but fought marginal Rochester (and its predecessor Medway) three times before being elected.
Reckless has shown commitment to his constituency.
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Had Reckless already been reselected to fight his seat by the Tories? If he had, I presume that private polling will have convinced him to fight as UKIP, if he thought the Tories could beat him he would likely never have taken the plunge. Edit: Though if another richard is correct, he is apparently more locally committed than most, which is encouraging, and speaks better as to his motives.Millsy said:The loss of Carswell was a big blow to the Tories but Reckless very much less so, particularly as they have a big chance of actually defeating Reckless at the by-election.
If there are any Labour figures genuinely tempted by UKIP, I would guess the lack of such a good chance to win under purple colours is what is holding them back, among other factors. As some have speculated, a retiring Labour MP might still be a handy thing for UKIP to have for a few months at least though.
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Some truth in that, I do accept the point. However, I can't see it happening fast enough to make much difference in 2015, which is the immediate concern.another_richard said:
The best way to stop Labour wining another general election is to disintegrate its wwc "our family's always voted Labour, they're the party of the working class" heritage vote.
The SNP have done that in Scotland, its possible that UKIP can do that in England and Wales.
If UKIP win in H&M Labour will suffer a permanent wound.0 -
Do you really believe what you are writing? And you lot talk of Kippers being fantasists. Blimey!!!Stark_Dawning said:
Very good point. It could be that we're witnessing some sort of entryism here. I can't believe that the likes of Carswell and Reckless take Farage remotely seriously. Their plan could be to infiltrate UKIP, oust Farage and remould UKIP in their own image of Tory rightism.HYUFD said:Interesting that Reckless went to Marlborough and Oxford and was Daniel Hannan's best man at his wedding and visa versa, Carswell was an usher at Reckless' wedding and is godfather to Hannan's children and visa versa. Could Hannan be one to watch? If so, he could be a highly effective UKIP leader
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No, you have misunderstood. The failure would be Farage pretending that voting for UKIP would mean a referendum was more likely.TwistedFireStopper said:
That always makes me smile. Cameron failing next May, and Milliband taking over is all the fault of Farage and Carswell and Reckless. Nothing to do with Dave actually being shite.MarkHopkins said:
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?manofkent2014 said:
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.GIN1138 said:
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.hunchman said:Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
Damn, now I'll get called a pompous arse for daring to insult Dave!
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Indeed so. It actually doesn't come any better than this, but it sometimes comes a hell of a lot worse, as we may rediscover in the next parliament.MikeK said:What, RN? You actually believe that the coalition is practising good government? Ho, ho!
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Perhaps that is extreme, but I do find it hard to believe Tory MPs switching to UKIP are as on board with the idea of tacking closer to Labour as Farage is, in his urge to attract as many from the Labour heartlands as he can.MikeK said:
Do you really believe what you are writing? And you lot talk of Kippers being fantasists. Blimey!!!Stark_Dawning said:
Very good point. It could be that we're witnessing some sort of entryism here. I can't believe that the likes of Carswell and Reckless take Farage remotely seriously. Their plan could be to infiltrate UKIP, oust Farage and remould UKIP in their own image of Tory rightism.HYUFD said:Interesting that Reckless went to Marlborough and Oxford and was Daniel Hannan's best man at his wedding and visa versa, Carswell was an usher at Reckless' wedding and is godfather to Hannan's children and visa versa. Could Hannan be one to watch? If so, he could be a highly effective UKIP leader
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If the Tories had any sense ( unlikely ) they'd field a very weak show in H&W or forget to file their papers. The argument they want to keep UKIP out of Parlt no longer holds.another_richard said:
The best way to stop Labour wining another general election is to disintegrate its wwc "our family's always voted Labour, they're the party of the working class" heritage vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I don't think so. The biggest help to Labour at the moment is UKIP. A UKIP victory in Heywood & Middleton would be embarrassing for Labour in the short term, but would help Labour at the GE.another_richard said:I take it you would encourage all former Conservative voters in Heywood & Middleton to vote UKIP at the byelection so as to damage Labour.
The SNP have done that in Scotland, its possible that UKIP can do that in England and Wales.
If UKIP win in H&M Labour will suffer a permanent wound.
Better to let Labour take its share of the pain and give Miliband something to worry about himself.0 -
[Yawn] Is that the end of the Tory PPB?MarkHopkins said:
I will vote for the best party to benefit Britain in 2015. I have voted for different parties in the past.manofkent2014 said:
Of for god sake are you Tories just so arrogant and up your own nether regions that you cannot accept responsibility for your own failures? I really am tired of listening to your pathetic party's whining. Grow a spine and accept that you above all others are responsible for Labour's coming victory. it was you the tories who have cotinually demonstrated for two decades how broken and dysfunctional you are, It was you with your toxic reputation who pushed half the Libdems support into the Labour camp. It was you who have split the centre right vote and it is you who are losing MPsMarkHopkins said:
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?manofkent2014 said:
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.GIN1138 said:
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.hunchman said:Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
Not Farage and UKIP, Not Clegg and the Libdems, Not Miliband and Labour but you, Cameron and the Tories and everytime you try and shift the blame onto others it just makes you look even more pathetic and more like losers!
I have some sympathy with the concerns of Kippers, but UKIP has no truly practical solutions to them. It's all fantasy. It's the same as Labour's fantasy that a few rich mansion-owners will solve all the NHS problems.
If you want a referendum on the EU, then a vote for the Conservatives is your best hope. Fact. If you don't and just want to get angry and shout about how bad you think things are, then vote UKIP.0 -
Moniker/Stark/kle4 Indeed will be interesting to watch0
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Its all a cunning plan is it Baldrick? I don't think there is much of substance to change. Carswell and Reckless will fit right in and will likely have a bright future if they can hold their seats.Stark_Dawning said:
Very good point. It could be that we're witnessing some sort of entryism here. I can't believe that the likes of Carswell and Reckless take Farage remotely seriously. Their plan could be to infiltrate UKIP, oust Farage and remould UKIP in their own image of Tory rightism.HYUFD said:Interesting that Reckless went to Marlborough and Oxford and was Daniel Hannan's best man at his wedding and visa versa, Carswell was an usher at Reckless' wedding and is godfather to Hannan's children and visa versa. Could Hannan be one to watch? If so, he could be a highly effective UKIP leader
Some rough edges still need to be smoothed out of the party and a lot of lines still need to be coloured in but this conference demonstrated that UKIP have come a long way in a very short time.0 -
Update I've stuck in a link to some Survation polling for UKIP in Rotherham, Boston and Thanet North
Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595. Tables available here.
Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)
North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571. Tables available here.
Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)
Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550. Tables available here.
Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)
http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/0 -
I think Mr Carswell is a libertarian. UKIP have already put libertarianism into their constitution.Stark_Dawning said:
Their plan could be to infiltrate UKIP, oust Farage and remould UKIP in their own image of Tory rightism.HYUFD said:Interesting that Reckless went to Marlborough and Oxford and was Daniel Hannan's best man at his wedding and visa versa, Carswell was an usher at Reckless' wedding and is godfather to Hannan's children and visa versa. Could Hannan be one to watch? If so, he could be a highly effective UKIP leader
" The Party is a democratic, libertarian Party "
http://www.ukip.org/the_constitution
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Hannam would be interesting. And how far would his influence extend amongst other Tory MEP's?HYUFD said:Interesting that Reckless went to Marlborough and Oxford and was Daniel Hannan's best man at his wedding and visa versa, Carswell was an usher at Reckless' wedding and is godfather to Hannan's children and visa versa. Could Hannan be one to watch? If so, he could be a highly effective UKIP leader
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@AlanBrooke
"The things that put me off are, failure to reform the banks, the slow rate of deficit reduction, uni fees, overseas aid, no policies for rebalancing the economy, no moves to decentralisation, no push to reduce state influence, no infrastructure plan for the nation, no interest by Cameron in anyone outside the south east, spin, the loss of personal privacy."
I could add to the list but the only think I'd disagree on is no attention for anyone outside the South East. That is probably a net benefit to you lot in the Midlands.0 -
I hope they do, despite no intention of voting UKIP. That powerful 'family vote' sort of thing, for whatever party, is a terrible thing, permitting so much laziness from a party safe to ignore anything coming from that area.another_richard said:
The best way to stop Labour wining another general election is to disintegrate its wwc "our family's always voted Labour, they're the party of the working class" heritage vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I don't think so. The biggest help to Labour at the moment is UKIP. A UKIP victory in Heywood & Middleton would be embarrassing for Labour in the short term, but would help Labour at the GE.another_richard said:I take it you would encourage all former Conservative voters in Heywood & Middleton to vote UKIP at the byelection so as to damage Labour.
The SNP have done that in Scotland, its possible that UKIP can do that in England and Wales.
If UKIP win in H&M Labour will suffer a permanent wound.
For good or ill, and whether or not the Tories are able to retain largest party status, UKIP have forced them to keep working hard for their votes. If they can manage the same for Labour - which to date has been less susceptible - then they will have done a great service whether they crash and burn or are here to stay.
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Were's the flaw in it? The neo-Thatcherite hard-right have long abandoned any dreams of taking over the Tory party. I suspect they see UKIP as a ready-made vehicle for bringing us closer to our destiny.MikeK said:
Do you really believe what you are writing? And you lot talk of Kippers being fantasists. Blimey!!!Stark_Dawning said:
Very good point. It could be that we're witnessing some sort of entryism here. I can't believe that the likes of Carswell and Reckless take Farage remotely seriously. Their plan could be to infiltrate UKIP, oust Farage and remould UKIP in their own image of Tory rightism.HYUFD said:Interesting that Reckless went to Marlborough and Oxford and was Daniel Hannan's best man at his wedding and visa versa, Carswell was an usher at Reckless' wedding and is godfather to Hannan's children and visa versa. Could Hannan be one to watch? If so, he could be a highly effective UKIP leader
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Reckless might be taking the local party with him like Carswell did in Clacton.Blueberry said:Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m
Tory councillor in Rochester + Strood has also defected according to local Tory association secretary
A sign that he might have it in the bag.0 -
First two look like Labour gain's in 2015 and the third a solid, maybe even landslide, Labour hold?TheScreamingEagles said:Update I've stuck in a link to some Survation polling for UKIP in Rotherham, Boston and Thanet North
Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595. Tables available here.
Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)
North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571. Tables available here.
Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)
Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550. Tables available here.
Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)
http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/
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Suzanne Evans retweeted
UK Debt Clock @UKDebtClock 4m
£1,330,044,498,334 // current UK Public Sector Net Debt // http://debt-clock.org
At the current rate of annual debt reduction Britain will NEVER pay it off. The country is bankrupt, and who made us so over the last 65 years?0 -
No, that's old hat. UKIP's now becoming a socially-conservative, left-of-centre working-class party, arguing against free trade agreements and wanting to spend more on welfare. Like Labour used to be, in fact. Do keep up.anotherDave said:Mr Carswell is a libertarian. UKIP have already put libertarianism into their constitution.
" The Party is a democratic, libertarian Party "
http://www.ukip.org/the_constitution0 -
Small samples of course, but on that basis the LDs could be on course to hold on to at least one deposit out of those three, if they are lucky. The LD slide has stopped!TheScreamingEagles said:Update I've stuck in a link to some Survation polling for UKIP in Rotherham, Boston and Thanet North
Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595. Tables available here.
Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)
North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571. Tables available here.
Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)
Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550. Tables available here.
Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)
http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/
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Mr Hannan on Mr Reckless (2008):
"Mark is refreshingly independent: an unapologetic tax-cutter (he was once one of Britain's top-rated economists), a radical libertarian, a localist and an opponent of EU membership."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/4734027/Mark_Reckless_the_best_kind_of_MP/0 -
You get no benefit in the Midlands unless you are an MPs horse. then you're kept nice and warm.HurstLlama said:@AlanBrooke
"The things that put me off are, failure to reform the banks, the slow rate of deficit reduction, uni fees, overseas aid, no policies for rebalancing the economy, no moves to decentralisation, no push to reduce state influence, no infrastructure plan for the nation, no interest by Cameron in anyone outside the south east, spin, the loss of personal privacy."
I could add to the list but the only think I'd disagree on is no attention for anyone outside the South East. That is probably a net benefit to you lot in the Midlands.
But yes I could add to that list and I didn't even mention immigration, tax, EU, Rotherham or the other issues which just make traditional voters recognise Cameron has no interest in them.0 -
Labour aren't going to get a majority in 2015, all they'll have is a minority government which will be both weak and precarious.Richard_Nabavi said:
Some truth in that, I do accept the point. However, I can't see it happening fast enough to make much difference in 2015, which is the immediate concern.another_richard said:
The best way to stop Labour wining another general election is to disintegrate its wwc "our family's always voted Labour, they're the party of the working class" heritage vote.
The SNP have done that in Scotland, its possible that UKIP can do that in England and Wales.
If UKIP win in H&M Labour will suffer a permanent wound.
And the greater the UKIP strength the weaker and more precarious Labour would be in government.
I can certainly see an EdM government collapsing while at under 20% in the polls anytime from 2016 onwards.
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A terrifying number indeed. If UKIP were ever to take the sorts of measured designed to actually pay off the debt, not just erase the deficit and maybe pay down some of the debt, they will see their support plummet so fast. People are in favour of cutting spending right up until you actually start doing it.MikeK said:Suzanne Evans retweeted
UK Debt Clock @UKDebtClock 4m
£1,330,044,498,334 // current UK Public Sector Net Debt // http://debt-clock.org
At the current rate of annual debt reduction Britain will NEVER pay it off. The country is bankrupt, and who made us so over the last 65 years?
Happily for them, the situation is not likely to arise, so they are free to beat all the parties over the head with how terrible at economics they all are.0 -
Afternoon all and what next? Ed Balls and Alex Salmond to defect to UKIP? Seriously though what happened to the Simon chap from Rochdale who was supposed to be defecting from Labour to UKIP?0
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They & Hannan all baldies too. Highly suspicious.AndyJS said:Both Carswell and Reckless was born in 1970/71. Maybe we should be looking at others in that age group for future defections.
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Yes, the more I think about this the more it's starting to look like a calculated plan of entrism by the neo-Thatcherite Tory hard-right. I can't quite see how Farage and his quaint protectionism and views on welfare will fit into the picture though.0
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On that basis I wish them well and hope they replace labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, that's old hat. UKIP's now becoming a socially-conservative, left-of-centre working-class party, arguing against free trade agreements and wanting to spend more on welfare. Like Labour used to be, in fact. Do keep up.anotherDave said:Mr Carswell is a libertarian. UKIP have already put libertarianism into their constitution.
" The Party is a democratic, libertarian Party "
http://www.ukip.org/the_constitution0 -
I think you underestimate how tenaciously a party can hang on to power, and how disciplined they might prove if they fear the alternative would be collapsing and letting in the Tories (which would secure a Lab government the support of several other seats from other parties too).another_richard said:
Labour aren't going to get a majority in 2015, all they'll have is a minority government which will be both weak and precarious.Richard_Nabavi said:
Some truth in that, I do accept the point. However, I can't see it happening fast enough to make much difference in 2015, which is the immediate concern.another_richard said:
The best way to stop Labour wining another general election is to disintegrate its wwc "our family's always voted Labour, they're the party of the working class" heritage vote.
The SNP have done that in Scotland, its possible that UKIP can do that in England and Wales.
If UKIP win in H&M Labour will suffer a permanent wound.
And the greater the UKIP strength the weaker and more precarious Labour would be in government.
I can certainly see an EdM government collapsing while at under 20% in the polls anytime from 2016 onwards.
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You truly have your blinkers on Gin. From here on UKIP will gain steadily.GIN1138 said:
First two look like Labour gain's in 2015 and the third a solid, maybe even landslide, Labour hold?TheScreamingEagles said:Update I've stuck in a link to some Survation polling for UKIP in Rotherham, Boston and Thanet North
Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595. Tables available here.
Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)
North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571. Tables available here.
Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)
Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550. Tables available here.
Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)
http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/0 -
We've been here before. Three letters...
SDP0 -
I agree with that, however I don't accept the conclusion which you imply - which is that a disastrous and unpopular Labour-led government wouldn't be re-elected. I think the likelihood is that it would be re-elected, because of the chaos on the right which we are seeing at the moment. It's a mirror image of Labour+SDP in the 1980s. So my expectation would be a prolonged period of very bad government, in circumstances where we have massive challenges to face. In that respect, like the 1970s.another_richard said:Labour aren't going to get a majority in 2015, all they'll have is a minority government which will be both weak and precarious.
And the greater the UKIP strength the weaker and more precarious Labour would be in government.
I can certainly see an EdM government collapsing while at under 20% in the polls anytime from 2016 onwards.0 -
Is Cameron the new Heath, as in poor party management, though having a coalition with the LDs always meant that patronage was harder to hand out.
I would be amused if UKIP secured Labour defection before another Tory MP jumps ship. At the moment Miliband might be trying recall what Bonaparte said about never interrupting enemies when they are in the middle of making mistakes.0 -
Some time ago, browsing the Libertarian Alliance website, they made some mention of an attempt to get libertarian candidates into the Conservative Party. I'd always thought that was Messrs Hannan and Carswell.AndyJS said:Both Carswell and Reckless was born in 1970/71. Maybe we should be looking at others in that age group for future defections.
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I wonder if UKIP know that Rotherham is only one of the three Rotherham borough constituencies.TheScreamingEagles said:Update I've stuck in a link to some Survation polling for UKIP in Rotherham, Boston and Thanet North
Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595. Tables available here.
Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)
North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571. Tables available here.
Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)
Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550. Tables available here.
Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)
http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/
The demographics of both Rother Valley and Wentworth & Dearne are more UKIP friendly.
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Absolutely. I would like to see more polls up in Scotland with Westminster VI next May. The one I saw in the immediate aftermath of the Independence vote was something like SNP 40% SLAB 28%. 8% UNS SLAB SNP swing wipes out 19 of the 40 SLAB MP's, It would be very difficult to see how Labour could get anywhere near an overall majority if that happens. And if that's anticipated, then the Tory line of vote UKIP get Labour will be even weaker than it already is.another_richard said:
The best way to stop Labour wining another general election is to disintegrate its wwc "our family's always voted Labour, they're the party of the working class" heritage vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I don't think so. The biggest help to Labour at the moment is UKIP. A UKIP victory in Heywood & Middleton would be embarrassing for Labour in the short term, but would help Labour at the GE.another_richard said:I take it you would encourage all former Conservative voters in Heywood & Middleton to vote UKIP at the byelection so as to damage Labour.
The SNP have done that in Scotland, its possible that UKIP can do that in England and Wales.
If UKIP win in H&M Labour will suffer a permanent wound.
For the Westminster establishment, having around 30 SNP MP's, 5-10 UKIP MP's, the 18 NI MP's and 3 PC MP's + Galloway and you already have around 60 non-aligned MP's. Which if Tory and Labour were equal in number, then they'd barely be able to muster a majority in coalition with about 30 LibDem MP's. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at a meeting of senior civil servants preparing for the outcome on the morning of the 8th May!0 -
It seems UKIP have big swings for them, by gaining massive votes from all other parties but one, Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Update I've stuck in a link to some Survation polling for UKIP in Rotherham, Boston and Thanet North
Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595. Tables available here.
Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)
North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571. Tables available here.
Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)
Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550. Tables available here.
Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)
http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/
UKIP will gain plenty of seats in their heartlands in the eastern and southern coasts, but for them to gain Rotherham and other Labour seats they need to get just a few extra votes directly from Labour.
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"Exclusive - how Mark Reckless' defection happened":
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/how-mark-reckless-defection-happened-exclusive-details/0 -
Hunchman Hannan more Eurosceptic than most Tory MEPs
Richard N Depends, UKIP want to restore 40% top rate, cut income tax for middle earners to 35% and take those on minimum wage out of income tax. They also want to end inheritance tax and slash overseas aid spending0 -
I have no doubt the Conservatives have failed to deliver chunks of their manifesto (which party does by the way?!), but some here, particularly some UKIP supporters, seem to forget we have a coalition government, forged to maintain international credibility economically amidst a traumatic global economic context. You cannot possibly get everything you want in these conditions.
UKIP display the idealism of many of the smaller parties seeking to harvest a protest vote. I am not suggesting they are not tapping in to some very real and legitimate concerns (they are), but their idealism risks building up people's hopes to be subsequently scuppered again when reality bites. In a sense this does politics more harm than UKIP would ever admit. Yes we have to be ambitious, yes we can do more than we do, but let's not pretend government is easy.
Moreover, if the Lib Dems were not in government, don't we think they would be picking up a lot of this vote, not UKIP? Of course they would. Farage was around before 2010 and was pretty unsuccessful in gaining any substantial political success.
As a Conservative I am deeply frustrated. I want my party to respond to the many legitimate concerns UKIP taps in to, and to have more confidence in its ability to deliver. The Conservative party knows what it is like to govern, which is to make decisions. It can be tough, it needs compromise and they should say this.0 -
Disappeared since Compouter criticized him.Easterross said:Afternoon all and what next? Ed Balls and Alex Salmond to defect to UKIP? Seriously though what happened to the Simon chap from Rochdale who was supposed to be defecting from Labour to UKIP?
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So who will you vote for?Alanbrooke said:CarlottaVance said:
Doesn't the polling say that most voters (and most Conservatives) would vote to stay in the EU post a Dave negotiated deal?Alanbrooke said:
they're splitting because the tory high command is ignoring large chunks of its supporters views.Richard_Nabavi said:
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.Jonathan said:Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
What is he ignoring?
Or is it UKIP and some on the Tory right who know what's better for voters than they do?
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Arguing against free trade agreements does not mean they oppose them in principle just they oppose specific clauses of particular agreements. One might reasonably consider EU membership to be the ultimate free trade agreement and of course UKIP and many other free traders including many in the Tory party have opposed that one for decades.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, that's old hat. UKIP's now becoming a socially-conservative, left-of-centre working-class party, arguing against free trade agreements and wanting to spend more on welfare. Like Labour used to be, in fact. Do keep up.anotherDave said:Mr Carswell is a libertarian. UKIP have already put libertarianism into their constitution.
" The Party is a democratic, libertarian Party "
http://www.ukip.org/the_constitution0 -
Meanwhile, seeing the west now almost fully engaged against ISIL, Russia has decided to strike; or has she?
Conflict Reporter @Conflict_Report 1h
BREAKINGNEWS
Russian invasion forces resume their assault on #Mariupol.
Massive #Grad salvo hits eastern sururbs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOQPF4z_vxQ …
Fight for our future retweeted
Conflict Reporter @Conflict_Report 38m
Talking about #WAR_CRIMES.
Russian invaders fire D-30 from residential area in E #Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eY4DgqM72xA …0 -
He is certainly Heathite in his attitude to the EU.dr_spyn said:Is Cameron the new Heath, as in poor party management, though having a coalition with the LDs always meant that patronage was harder to hand out.
I would be amused if UKIP secured Labour defection before another Tory MP jumps ship. At the moment Miliband might be trying recall what Bonaparte said about never interrupting enemies when they are in the middle of making mistakes.0 -
I think its over a £100bn higher now because the ONS has changed its calculation.MikeK said:Suzanne Evans retweeted
UK Debt Clock @UKDebtClock 4m
£1,330,044,498,334 // current UK Public Sector Net Debt // http://debt-clock.org
At the current rate of annual debt reduction Britain will NEVER pay it off. The country is bankrupt, and who made us so over the last 65 years?
Though its not the last 65 years when the debt has risen exponentially, only the last 20.
Without looking up the numbers I think the debt was approximately £230bn in 1994 and has been increased by £1,200bn since then.
At the current rate we will see government debt rise by one and a half TRILLION quid in the 1994-2019 generation.
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Does that mean UKIP are going after what the late Keith Joseph called the Common Ground? If so they may do even better than I think they might.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, that's old hat. UKIP's now becoming a socially-conservative, left-of-centre working-class party, arguing against free trade agreements and wanting to spend more on welfare. Like Labour used to be, in fact. Do keep up.anotherDave said:Mr Carswell is a libertarian. UKIP have already put libertarianism into their constitution.
" The Party is a democratic, libertarian Party "
http://www.ukip.org/the_constitution0 -
I didn't think that Carsewell was that big a loss to the Conservative Party, and certainly not any more than Reckless was today. Can't say that I am surprised at the news of the Reckless defection today either, I made it a point to check which Tory MP's didn't vote with the Government yesterday. But hey ho, another unnecessary by-election just months before the next GE, anyone would think the taxpayer isn't going to get fed up footing the bill for these UKIP publicity stunts.
Twitter
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 17 mins
Chris Buckwell, secretary of Rochester Conservatives, tells #C4News they got assurances from Reckless two weeks ago he wouldn't defect
Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman 54 mins
Mark Reckless decided he was defecting two weeks ago http://specc.ie/1yuVD3O
Krishnan Guru-Murthy @krishgm 24 hrs
Hi @MarkReckless - can you rule out defecting to UKIP? Your language on Iraq seems quite Ukippy
Mark Reckless MP @MarkReckless 24h
@krishgm Indeed. Other Con MPs voted against and not aware Ukip has positionMillsy said:The loss of Carswell was a big blow to the Tories but Reckless very much less so, particularly as they have a big chance of actually defeating Reckless at the by-election.
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Disloyal bastard.0
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I'd like a price on Gordon Henderson as next Tory to join Tory Ukip.The Labour MPs who have been targetted need to meet the criteria of 1.being a Tory.2.being a BOOer.3.being an authoritarian Blairite 4.acting against their own personal interest.Is there a Labour MP who matches all 4 criteria?0
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You seem to forget that the Labour figures that are being compared with are from Labour's worst electoral result in Government since the introduction of Universal suffrage. Basically Labour are down to core vote in those constituencies. That won't be easy to shift. However, that they are showing virtually no benefit from a relatively unpopular coalition demonstrates how weak an offering Miliband has provided.Speedy said:
It seems UKIP have big swings for them, by gaining massive votes from all other parties but one, Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Update I've stuck in a link to some Survation polling for UKIP in Rotherham, Boston and Thanet North
Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595. Tables available here.
Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)
North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571. Tables available here.
Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)
Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550. Tables available here.
Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)
http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/
UKIP will gain plenty of seats in their heartlands in the eastern and southern coasts, but for them to gain Rotherham and other Labour seats they need to get just a few extra votes directly from Labour.
Arguably UKIP are hoovering up much of the swing vote......0 -
Good point. Will we see a UKIP split in the next few years? Farage and the bring-back-bowler-hats brigade remaining as Harold Wilson's heirs, while Carswell, Reckless and Hannan lead a movement to take us ever upwards, ever forwards and to the future.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, that's old hat. UKIP's now becoming a socially-conservative, left-of-centre working-class party, arguing against free trade agreements and wanting to spend more on welfare. Like Labour used to be, in fact. Do keep up.anotherDave said:Mr Carswell is a libertarian. UKIP have already put libertarianism into their constitution.
" The Party is a democratic, libertarian Party "
http://www.ukip.org/the_constitution0 -
Betfair is offering 13/10 for UKIP getting more than 5 seats.
Currently an opportunity.0 -
Yes because they've selected candidates in all three constituencies:another_richard said:
I wonder if UKIP know that Rotherham is only one of the three Rotherham borough constituencies.TheScreamingEagles said:Update I've stuck in a link to some Survation polling for UKIP in Rotherham, Boston and Thanet North
Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595. Tables available here.
Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)
North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571. Tables available here.
Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)
Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550. Tables available here.
Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)
http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/
The demographics of both Rother Valley and Wentworth & Dearne are more UKIP friendly.
http://www.ukiprotherham.com/candidates/0 -
But UKIP doesn't appear to be gaining anything from Labour?MikeK said:
You truly have your blinkers on Gin. From here on UKIP will gain steadily.GIN1138 said:
First two look like Labour gain's in 2015 and the third a solid, maybe even landslide, Labour hold?TheScreamingEagles said:Update I've stuck in a link to some Survation polling for UKIP in Rotherham, Boston and Thanet North
Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595. Tables available here.
Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)
North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571. Tables available here.
Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)
Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550. Tables available here.
Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)
http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/
Actually, in Rotherham, Labour is UP, LOL!
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No idea atm.CarlottaVance said:
So who will you vote for?Alanbrooke said:CarlottaVance said:
Doesn't the polling say that most voters (and most Conservatives) would vote to stay in the EU post a Dave negotiated deal?Alanbrooke said:
they're splitting because the tory high command is ignoring large chunks of its supporters views.Richard_Nabavi said:
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.Jonathan said:Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
What is he ignoring?
Or is it UKIP and some on the Tory right who know what's better for voters than they do?
Out here in the sticks it's all pretty academic anyway as my MP has safe seat. Maybe I'll spoil my vote and write Osborne is a wanker.0 -
Write on your ballot paper - "Where's my SNP candidate? this is a tipping point."Alanbrooke said:
No idea atm.CarlottaVance said:
So who will you vote for?Alanbrooke said:CarlottaVance said:
Doesn't the polling say that most voters (and most Conservatives) would vote to stay in the EU post a Dave negotiated deal?Alanbrooke said:
they're splitting because the tory high command is ignoring large chunks of its supporters views.Richard_Nabavi said:
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.Jonathan said:Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
What is he ignoring?
Or is it UKIP and some on the Tory right who know what's better for voters than they do?
Out here in the sticks it's all pretty academic anyway as my MP has safe seat. Maybe I'll spoil my vote and write Osborne is a wanker.0 -
"The medway council eu election percentages were:
UKIP- 41.7%
Conservatives- 23%
Labour- 19%
Green- 5.6%
Lib Dems- 3.7%"
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/rochesterandstrood/0 -
Yeah, yeah, but you can't deny the big shift in UKIP's political positioning as it attempts to mop up disaffected WWC voters. It's not specific to the UK, either: it has similarities with the approach taken by the Front National in France, and with other parties in Europe which are often rather misleadingly called 'far right': anti-immigration, anti-establishment, anti-EU, and protectionist. UKIP of course is not as far down the protectionist route as most of its continental European equivalents, but it's very interesting to see it beginning to move in that direction. If it wants disgruntled ex-Labour WWC votes, it makes some sense to do so.Richard_Tyndall said:Arguing against free trade agreements does not mean they oppose them in principle just they oppose specific clauses of particular agreements. One might reasonably consider EU membership to be the ultimate free trade agreement and of course UKIP and many other free traders including many in the Tory party have opposed that one for decades.
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Well I'm off for an evening walk over a part of Barns Common, happy with the political news of this afternoon and the knowledge that Europe's Ryder Cuppers are doing well.0
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This is, quite seriously, a cliche I have heard before every General Election of my life.hunchman said:
The survival of the Tory party long term depends on losing the GE next May and not being in government. So the current events could prove to be a blessing in disguise for them.Richard_Nabavi said:
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.Jonathan said:Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
.
Unlike some on here I don't see the Kipper defection-reselection as honourable. They look to me like mass publicity stunts.AndyJS said:Since 1997 defecting MPs have included Shaun Woodward, Peter Temple-Morris and Quentin Davies. None of them put themselves up for re-election to see what the electorate thought of their decision.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.Richard_Tyndall said:
No. The Tories losing the next election is entirely down to Cameron. If you drive away a large natural section of your support then you cannot then moan when they find somewhere else to lend their support.MarkHopkins said:
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?manofkent2014 said:GIN1138 said:
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.hunchman said:Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
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It'll come to a head long before 2019. When economic confidence turns down from October next year, it'll be 2016 I think when the whole shambles falls apart. And nobody in the political establishment has the guts to tell the people that things can't carry on as they are. Which is why they deserve all the contempt that they are getting.another_richard said:
I think its over a £100bn higher now because the ONS has changed its calculation.MikeK said:Suzanne Evans retweeted
UK Debt Clock @UKDebtClock 4m
£1,330,044,498,334 // current UK Public Sector Net Debt // http://debt-clock.org
At the current rate of annual debt reduction Britain will NEVER pay it off. The country is bankrupt, and who made us so over the last 65 years?
Though its not the last 65 years when the debt has risen exponentially, only the last 20.
Without looking up the numbers I think the debt was approximately £230bn in 1994 and has been increased by £1,200bn since then.
At the current rate we will see government debt rise by one and a half TRILLION quid in the 1994-2019 generation.0 -
Your lack of principles is shameful but not surprising.fitalass said:I didn't think that Carsewell was that big a loss to the Conservative Party, and certainly not any more than Reckless was today. Can't say that I am surprised at the news of the Reckless defection today either, I made it a point to check which Tory MP's didn't vote with the Government yesterday. But hey ho, another unnecessary by-election just months before the next GE, anyone would think the taxpayer isn't going to get fed up footing the bill for these UKIP publicity stunts.
Twitter
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 17 mins
Chris Buckwell, secretary of Rochester Conservatives, tells #C4News they got assurances from Reckless two weeks ago he wouldn't defect
Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman 54 mins
Mark Reckless decided he was defecting two weeks ago http://specc.ie/1yuVD3O
Krishnan Guru-Murthy @krishgm 24 hrs
Hi @MarkReckless - can you rule out defecting to UKIP? Your language on Iraq seems quite Ukippy
Mark Reckless MP @MarkReckless 24h
@krishgm Indeed. Other Con MPs voted against and not aware Ukip has positionMillsy said:The loss of Carswell was a big blow to the Tories but Reckless very much less so, particularly as they have a big chance of actually defeating Reckless at the by-election.
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It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.0
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Mr Hannan would be super candidate for Witney. :-)0
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Well the Westminster establishment have shown over the past decade that they have no idea where the common ground lies.HurstLlama said:
Does that mean UKIP are going after what the late Keith Joseph called the Common Ground? If so they may do even better than I think they might.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, that's old hat. UKIP's now becoming a socially-conservative, left-of-centre working-class party, arguing against free trade agreements and wanting to spend more on welfare. Like Labour used to be, in fact. Do keep up.anotherDave said:Mr Carswell is a libertarian. UKIP have already put libertarianism into their constitution.
" The Party is a democratic, libertarian Party "
http://www.ukip.org/the_constitution0 -
An EdM government isn't going to be reelected when its below 25% in the polls.Richard_Nabavi said:
I agree with that, however I don't accept the conclusion which you imply - which is that a disastrous and unpopular Labour-led government wouldn't be re-elected. I think the likelihood is that it would be re-elected, because of the chaos on the right which we are seeing at the moment. It's a mirror image of Labour+SDP in the 1980s. So my expectation would be a prolonged period of very bad government, in circumstances where we have massive challenges to face. In that respect, like the 1970s.another_richard said:Labour aren't going to get a majority in 2015, all they'll have is a minority government which will be both weak and precarious.
And the greater the UKIP strength the weaker and more precarious Labour would be in government.
I can certainly see an EdM government collapsing while at under 20% in the polls anytime from 2016 onwards.
Thatcher wasn't reelected because of the Labour-SDP split. She was reelected because she got over 42% of the vote. All the Labour-SDP split did was to ensure that Thatcher got landslide majorities.
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Nope. Cameron failed to win a majority at the last election because he abandoned so much of his natural support. The centre ground is just too crowded and to uncertain to be able to abandon your natural constituency. Cameron has never learnt this lesson which is why he is in the position he is in now.audreyanne said:
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.0 -
Labour have barely any increase in their vote shares despite the Libdem vote collapsing and despite the Coalition being relatively unpopular. Labour has barely picked up any of the swing vote and most of its seems to have moved straight to UKIP. That Labour has picked up virtually no votes from the second lowest point in their electoral history demonstrates how badly Miliband has done. They are still at core vote levels.GIN1138 said:
But UKIP doesn't appear to be gaining anything from Labour?MikeK said:
You truly have your blinkers on Gin. From here on UKIP will gain steadily.GIN1138 said:
First two look like Labour gain's in 2015 and the third a solid, maybe even landslide, Labour hold?TheScreamingEagles said:Update I've stuck in a link to some Survation polling for UKIP in Rotherham, Boston and Thanet North
Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595. Tables available here.
Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)
North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571. Tables available here.
Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)
Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550. Tables available here.
Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)
http://survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/
Actually, in Rotherham, Labour is UP, LOL!
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Something only really has to give if they get near government. As a protest party they can be as incoherent as the LibDems used to be.SouthamObserver said:It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
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"No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too."audreyanne said:
This is, quite seriously, a cliche I have heard before every General Election of my life.hunchman said:
The survival of the Tory party long term depends on losing the GE next May and not being in government. So the current events could prove to be a blessing in disguise for them.Richard_Nabavi said:
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.Jonathan said:Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
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Unlike some on here I don't see the Kipper defection-reselection as honourable. They look to me like mass publicity stunts.AndyJS said:Since 1997 defecting MPs have included Shaun Woodward, Peter Temple-Morris and Quentin Davies. None of them put themselves up for re-election to see what the electorate thought of their decision.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.Richard_Tyndall said:
No. The Tories losing the next election is entirely down to Cameron. If you drive away a large natural section of your support then you cannot then moan when they find somewhere else to lend their support.MarkHopkins said:
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?manofkent2014 said:GIN1138 said:
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.hunchman said:Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
That only works if like Blair you believe voters on the party outer wing have nowhere else to go, As we are seeing both left and right it's a flawed theory.
The reality is coalitions of interest win elections and that means keeping everyone on board from wing to centre, something Cameron has shown no ability to manage.0 -
I agree. I have no idea how it will fall but I know which side I want to see win out.SouthamObserver said:It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
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Haven't you been predicting financial disaster and destruction for years?hunchman said:
It'll come to a head long before 2019. When economic confidence turns down from October next year, it'll be 2016 I think when the whole shambles falls apart. And nobody in the political establishment has the guts to tell the people that things can't carry on as they are. Which is why they deserve all the contempt that they are getting.another_richard said:
I think its over a £100bn higher now because the ONS has changed its calculation.MikeK said:Suzanne Evans retweeted
UK Debt Clock @UKDebtClock 4m
£1,330,044,498,334 // current UK Public Sector Net Debt // http://debt-clock.org
At the current rate of annual debt reduction Britain will NEVER pay it off. The country is bankrupt, and who made us so over the last 65 years?
Though its not the last 65 years when the debt has risen exponentially, only the last 20.
Without looking up the numbers I think the debt was approximately £230bn in 1994 and has been increased by £1,200bn since then.
At the current rate we will see government debt rise by one and a half TRILLION quid in the 1994-2019 generation.
Your like one of those people walking down Oxford Street with "End Is Nigh" boards attached to their person! :^O
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audreyanne said:
Sometimes even a mass publicity stunt can be the honourable course of action. Whatever their motivations for doing it, and however they portray it, it seems to be me to be honourable to ask the voters if one is switching parties, as while MPs do indeed get a personal vote, some more than others, it would be silly for us to ignore that a lot of people, I would say most, vote for the party not the person. That's why leaflets are full of pictures of the national leader a lot of the time, why they are often focused on national issues, and why many people would vote for a donkey with the right coloured rosette pinned to it. So it is reasonable to not assume the people who voted for you will approve of your switching parties, and to ask them again.hunchman said:Richard_Nabavi said:
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.Jonathan said:Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
Unlike some on here I don't see the Kipper defection-reselection as honourable. They look to me like mass publicity stunts.AndyJS said:Since 1997 defecting MPs have included Shaun Woodward, Peter Temple-Morris and Quentin Davies. None of them put themselves up for re-election to see what the electorate thought of their decision.
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The problem being what politicians call "the centre ground" isn't very popular with the electorate any more.audreyanne said:
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
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another_richard said:
The best way to stop Labour wining another general election is to disintegrate its wwc "our family's always voted Labour, they're the party of the working class" heritage vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, I don't think so. The biggest help to Labour at the moment is UKIP. A UKIP victory in Heywood & Middleton would be embarrassing for Labour in the short term, but would help Labour at the GE.another_richard said:I take it you would encourage all former Conservative voters in Heywood & Middleton to vote UKIP at the byelection so as to damage Labour.
The SNP have done that in Scotland, its possible that UKIP can do that in England and Wales.
If UKIP win in H&M Labour will suffer a permanent wound.
Strange that the only party with a leader who doesn´t hate their voters is the one in the doldrums (Clegg). Both Miliband and Cameron obviously hate and despise their natural voters, and wish they´d be like Clegg´s. Q is, does Farage hate his voters? He doesn´t give that impression and maybe that is why he is seemingly on the up.0 -
It should be remembered that UKIP occupy the centre ground when it comes to immigration.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Cameron failed to win a majority at the last election because he abandoned so much of his natural support. The centre ground is just too crowded and to uncertain to be able to abandon your natural constituency. Cameron has never learnt this lesson which is why he is in the position he is in now.audreyanne said:
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
All the other parties are on the extreme left.
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Kevin Meagher @KevinPMeagher 47m
After the defection of Mark Reckless, Tory whips are keeping a close eye on Simon Carefree and Julian Buggerit.0 -
Is this the same UKIP that wants to preserve the NHS, eliminate the deficit and tax bling handbags?HYUFD said:Hunchman Hannan more Eurosceptic than most Tory MEPs
Richard N Depends, UKIP want to restore 40% top rate, cut income tax for middle earners to 35% and take those on minimum wage out of income tax. They also want to end inheritance tax and slash overseas aid spending
It makes Milibands owl promise look realistic...0 -
No, elections are not always won or lost on the centre.audreyanne said:
This is, quite seriously, a cliche I have heard before every General Election of my life.hunchman said:
The survival of the Tory party long term depends on losing the GE next May and not being in government. So the current events could prove to be a blessing in disguise for them.Richard_Nabavi said:
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.Jonathan said:Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
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Unlike some on here I don't see the Kipper defection-reselection as honourable. They look to me like mass publicity stunts.AndyJS said:Since 1997 defecting MPs have included Shaun Woodward, Peter Temple-Morris and Quentin Davies. None of them put themselves up for re-election to see what the electorate thought of their decision.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.Richard_Tyndall said:
No. The Tories losing the next election is entirely down to Cameron. If you drive away a large natural section of your support then you cannot then moan when they find somewhere else to lend their support.MarkHopkins said:
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?manofkent2014 said:GIN1138 said:
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.hunchman said:Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
Example: 1970,74,79,83,87
Elections are won or lost on competence, trust, sound arguments, PR, and policy. Those are not exclusively found in the centre ground.0 -
A bit simplistic. Had there been no split, and had Labour had more credible leaders, who's to say what percentage Thatcher would have got?another_richard said:
An EdM government isn't going to be reelected when its below 25% in the polls.Richard_Nabavi said:
I agree with that, however I don't accept the conclusion which you imply - which is that a disastrous and unpopular Labour-led government wouldn't be re-elected. I think the likelihood is that it would be re-elected, because of the chaos on the right which we are seeing at the moment. It's a mirror image of Labour+SDP in the 1980s. So my expectation would be a prolonged period of very bad government, in circumstances where we have massive challenges to face. In that respect, like the 1970s.another_richard said:Labour aren't going to get a majority in 2015, all they'll have is a minority government which will be both weak and precarious.
And the greater the UKIP strength the weaker and more precarious Labour would be in government.
I can certainly see an EdM government collapsing while at under 20% in the polls anytime from 2016 onwards.
Thatcher wasn't reelected because of the Labour-SDP split. She was reelected because she got over 42% of the vote. All the Labour-SDP split did was to ensure that Thatcher got landslide majorities.
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You know if my mp defected,I would be mad as hell and for sure he/she would not get my vote again.0
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CopperSulphate said:
Indeed. Isn't the LDs problem that voters on the left see them as too much to the right, and those on the right still see them as too left? In any case, on several key issues the centre ground may well have shifted, so those going after the centre vote may be going after the wrong centre, if that makes sense. It's why even those pro-EU parties try to appear that they do so reluctantly - even the LDs, who banked on trying to secure the small pro-EU vote, try not to appear too enthusiastic on it much of the time.audreyanne said:
The problem being what politicians call "the centre ground" isn't very popular with the electorate any more.hunchman said:
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.0 -
Cameron has never won an election.audreyanne said:
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
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Some of your assessment I agree with, some not. I certainly don't agree that UKIP overall are being protectionist. Indeed leaving the most protectionist, stagnating bloc in the industrialised world is a clear indication of their direction of travel.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yeah, yeah, but you can't deny the big shift in UKIP's political positioning as it attempts to mop up disaffected WWC voters. It's not specific to the UK, either: it has similarities with the approach taken by the Front National in France, and with other parties in Europe which are often rather misleadingly called 'far right': anti-immigration, anti-establishment, anti-EU, and protectionist. UKIP of course is not as far down the protectionist route as most of its continental European equivalents, but it's very interesting to see it beginning to move in that direction. If it wants disgruntled ex-Labour WWC votes, it makes some sense to do so.Richard_Tyndall said:Arguing against free trade agreements does not mean they oppose them in principle just they oppose specific clauses of particular agreements. One might reasonably consider EU membership to be the ultimate free trade agreement and of course UKIP and many other free traders including many in the Tory party have opposed that one for decades.
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