Farage on SKY: UKIP 20 points ahead in Boston. UKIP clearly ahead in Eastleigh. UKIP catching up with Labour in Rotherham. UKIP 1 point behind Labour in North Thanet.
I've watched quite a bit of the conference, some so so speeches and the delivery wasn't always polished.
However, there were some good speeches and they were well received. I haven't seen such energy at a party conference since. . .. 1997.
I will be watching the Tory party conference tomorrow, I'm sure it will be as much fun as the Labour one.
It will surely be more incident packed? Labour are lacking in inspiration but seem to believe they can still pull of a majority or at least largest party status and so are a little anxious but fairly comfortable most of the time in a dull way, but the Tories have been vacillating between blind panic and occasional bluster to varying degrees for years.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
Reckless listed a whole load of things that the Conservatives couldn't do, even if they wanted to, because they don't have a Parliamentary majority. Said he "couldn't promise it as a Conservative, but could as UKIP".
Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...
If he'd actually said all of that then you'd have a point.
Ironically for a party targeting working class voters UKIP will have the poshest leadership with Farage, Carswell and Reckless.
But you can gain the support of people different to you as long as you have some empathy towards them.
And empathy towards people not from their privileged background is what Cammy, Cleggy and Milly are lacking.
Of course, all would beg to differ on that point. They are just too polished and phony to appear sincere about it, even if they are being sincere about it.
Farage on SKY: UKIP 20 points ahead in Boston. UKIP clearly ahead in Eastleigh. UKIP catching up with Labour in Rotherham. UKIP 1 point behind Labour in North Thanet.
I can see why Farage has been pushing the challenging of Labour seats, not just Tory ones, because at this rate it will be hard to rebut the idea that UKIP are nothing but angry Tories, something UKIP have been working very hard to break free from, finally with some success in the past year or so.
Didn't they announce one of their policies was to abolish Inheritance tax?
I believe so. Whatever their policies, since the extent of hatred of Tories/Labour is irrational if based on policy alone (given how they go back and forth on various issues), UKIP just need to worry about the perception of being Tory-Hard (as the LDs are Labour-lite), whether or not it is true.
Farage on SKY: UKIP 20 points ahead in Boston. UKIP clearly ahead in Eastleigh. UKIP catching up with Labour in Rotherham. UKIP 1 point behind Labour in North Thanet.
I can see why Farage has been pushing the challenging of Labour seats, not just Tory ones, because at this rate it will be hard to rebut the idea that UKIP are nothing but angry Tories, something UKIP have been working very hard to break free from, finally with some success in the past year or so.
Didn't they announce one of their policies was to abolish Inheritance tax?
They did and they also announced they would scrap the Bedroom tax too (including the bit Labour implemented that Labour don't like to talk about)
Farage on SKY: UKIP 20 points ahead in Boston. UKIP clearly ahead in Eastleigh. UKIP catching up with Labour in Rotherham. UKIP 1 point behind Labour in North Thanet.
In N Thanet does that make UKIP second or third?
As I've said before, I simply don't believe those Eastleigh numbers. Be interested to see the betting odds there, as I can't see anything other than a LibDem hold, even in the face of the Hancock shenanigans in Portsmouth South, that has made a lot of news locally.
Defectors to UKIP in less winnable constituencies could hold off until the new year and then say it would be pointless to force a byelection with the general election so near.
But there's going to be panic in Conservative circles about who the next defectors will be.
On the contrary, a defector's best chance of holding on is to first fight a by-election...
But a byelection defeat would put a brake on UKIP momentum.
There's also the possibility of defectors who are planning on leaving parliament next year.
Gordon Henderson next to go? he has said he admires Farage as the bestest leader since Churchill and is a BOO er.He is also from Kent close to his great leader.No markets I can see at present but Henderson could be worth a punt during Tory conference week. http://www.parliament.uk/biographies/commons/gordon-henderson/4050
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
I'm beginning to think a Labour defection is on the cards too - Farage is dropping to many hints for it to be pure fantasy. But whereas the Tory defectors have been the predictable pigs-bladder-on-a-stick wavers (pace tim) the Labour one will probably be someone we've never heard of.
I tend to think of what's happening at the moment as the revenge of the lower-middle and upper-working classes. They've been either ignored or ridiculed ever since John Major left Downing Street in favour of the concerns of those at the very top and very bottom of society.
A UKIP win in Rochester & Strood in the by-election would be embarassing for Labour too. Although Newark was affected by boundary changes since 1997 from the seat Fiona Alexander won, they won't be able to say that about R&S. It seems a long time ago from 1997 / 2001 when the North Kent coast constituencies were won by Labour!
Fiona Jones. Her predecessor was Richard Alexander.
Reckless listed a whole load of things that the Conservatives couldn't do, even if they wanted to, because they don't have a Parliamentary majority. Said he "couldn't promise it as a Conservative, but could as UKIP".
Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...
If he'd actually said all of that then you'd have a point.
?did you watch his speech. One of his main slogans was "I can't promise it as a Conservative, but i can as UKIP". Some of the things this applied to were things which the Conservatives couldn't do because of Parliamentary arithmetic. Eg. reducing numbers of MPs. Similarly an EU referendum in this Parliament. Others were just things which the Govt had failed to deliver (but which were only things which were within the gift of a Govt to deliver). Basically things which he could not remotely "promise as UKIP" unless UKIP were in Govt.
More right wingers with their heads in the cloud going off into oblivion.
British Right unfit for government since 1990!
Quite. Whenever I see John Redwood's phizzog on the gogglebox I feel like throwing up.
Good for you. But rather like your hero-worship of a certain genocidal kiddie-fiddling religious figure the other night you don't seem to appreciate that other people have different views to yours.
I'm beginning to think a Labour defection is on the cards too - Farage is dropping to many hints for it to be pure fantasy. But whereas the Tory defectors have been the predictable pigs-bladder-on-a-stick wavers (pace tim) the Labour one will probably be someone we've never heard of.
Nobody from Labour will defect this side of the general election.
I'm beginning to think a Labour defection is on the cards too - Farage is dropping to many hints for it to be pure fantasy. But whereas the Tory defectors have been the predictable pigs-bladder-on-a-stick wavers (pace tim) the Labour one will probably be someone we've never heard of.
Don't forget polling, all those potential defectors would have had private polling before they decide to defect. If we find a Labour MP whose seat might go UKIP then we can find a potential defector.
Farage on SKY: UKIP 20 points ahead in Boston. UKIP clearly ahead in Eastleigh. UKIP catching up with Labour in Rotherham. UKIP 1 point behind Labour in North Thanet.
Roger Gale is a very popular Tory MP in Thanet North and is probably the only reason why it's still in the Conservative column in the polls.
Completely off-topic: when will the Charlotte Clinton for President exploratory committee be holding its first meeting?
Technically speaking it has probably already been held, it's just that during the inaugural they were not aware what the first name of the candidate was going to be.
Farage on SKY: UKIP 20 points ahead in Boston. UKIP clearly ahead in Eastleigh. UKIP catching up with Labour in Rotherham. UKIP 1 point behind Labour in North Thanet.
UKIP lucky to get 3rd in Eastleigh. Look at the Locals.
Farage on SKY: UKIP 20 points ahead in Boston. UKIP clearly ahead in Eastleigh. UKIP catching up with Labour in Rotherham. UKIP 1 point behind Labour in North Thanet.
In N Thanet does that make UKIP second or third?
As I've said before, I simply don't believe those Eastleigh numbers. Be interested to see the betting odds there, as I can't see anything other than a LibDem hold, even in the face of the Hancock shenanigans in Portsmouth South, that has made a lot of news locally.
There comes a point where even someone like Hancock isn’t a liability to his polittical neighbours any more. He’s written off as an idiot.
Actually, the LibDems best course of action would be to encourage him to switch to a hopeless seat. He’d get his pension then and we’d all be rid of him!
I'm beginning to think a Labour defection is on the cards too - Farage is dropping to many hints for it to be pure fantasy. But whereas the Tory defectors have been the predictable pigs-bladder-on-a-stick wavers (pace tim) the Labour one will probably be someone we've never heard of.
If there were to be a Labour defection, it would surely be someone retiring/standing down at the election.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
The failures of this government will be rather more responsible.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
I'm beginning to think a Labour defection is on the cards too - Farage is dropping to many hints for it to be pure fantasy. But whereas the Tory defectors have been the predictable pigs-bladder-on-a-stick wavers (pace tim) the Labour one will probably be someone we've never heard of.
If there were to be a Labour defection, it would surely be someone retiring/standing down at the election.
Yes, Austin Mitchell springs to mind, but I think he's already ruled it out.
For a Labour defector I would guess at eastern and southern seats. However the're so few. Just the 2 Luton seats, 2 Southampton seats, Plymouth and Slough. Oh and Great Grimsby.
I can see why Farage has been pushing the challenging of Labour seats, not just Tory ones, because at this rate it will be hard to rebut the idea that UKIP are nothing but angry Tories, something UKIP have been working very hard to break free from, finally with some success in the past year or so.
Yep, a Lab UKIP defection would be amazing, but I don't see it happening.
The SDP attracted Brocklebank Fowler as their only Tory SDP defection. And I suppose you could say the LibDems were the last to attract both Tory (Emma Nicholson, Thurnham) and a Labour defector (that MP from Shrewsbury over Iraq before Mr Kawczynski came along on the scene. Although they were years apart!
More right wingers with their heads in the cloud going off into oblivion.
British Right unfit for government since 1990!
Quite. Whenever I see John Redwood's phizzog on the gogglebox I feel like throwing up.
Good for you. But rather like your hero-worship of a certain genocidal kiddie-fiddling religious figure the other night you don't seem to appreciate that other people have different views to yours.
What a silly comment. I have respect for Muhammed (pbuh) that's all. And of course I know many people don't agree with me. Silly boy.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
I'm beginning to think a Labour defection is on the cards too - Farage is dropping to many hints for it to be pure fantasy. But whereas the Tory defectors have been the predictable pigs-bladder-on-a-stick wavers (pace tim) the Labour one will probably be someone we've never heard of.
I think not. Let's face it, this was a parliamentary party that did not panic with Captain Brown steaming them at full speed towards an iceberg. Labour MPs have commendable intestinal fortitude, sadly lacking on the Tory right.
Tory chances of largest party status evaporating by the hour, and they were already short to begin with. Why on earth would any Con-UKIP switchers 'come home' as it were, for the GE, when it seems probable UKIP will have prove they have the ability to win seats (by-election(s), but still)? They will not vote tactically because they think they will be able to win. Certainly in Tory seats with a goodish majority, and if the Tories are challenging or defending a small majority, better to vote UKIP and risk a Lab MP than be tactical. UKIP and its members seem to have made clear that 'only the Tories will offer a referendum' is not an issue which is dissuading them. Better to rattle the cage from the outside than vote tactically to get the biggest single thing they want.
Reckless listed a whole load of things that the Conservatives couldn't do, even if they wanted to, because they don't have a Parliamentary majority. Said he "couldn't promise it as a Conservative, but could as UKIP".
Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...
If he'd actually said all of that then you'd have a point.
?did you watch his speech. One of his main slogans was "I can't promise it as a Conservative, but i can as UKIP". Some of the things this applied to were things which the Conservatives couldn't do because of Parliamentary arithmetic. Similarly an EU referendum in this Parliament. Others were just things which the Govt had failed to deliver (but which were only things which were within the gift of a Govt to deliver). Basically things which he could not remotely "promise as UKIP" unless UKIP were in Govt.
I did watch it yes. You twist his words to imply that in the speech he blamed the lack of a majority for being unable to do these things. In fact he blames the lack of will, not ability. Your post was deliberately misleading on that point.
Is UKIP policy actually to leave the EU, or to have a referendum on leaving the EU? Because leaving the EU is generally a pre-requisite to delivery of most of their populist policies (it's apparently largely paying for their tax cuts, and obviously is necessary for their immigration policies). A referendum is not enough if they get the wrong outcome.
@JananGanesh : The Tories' problem is not losing people like Reckless, it is failing to keep them out in the first place.
Reckless has a very similar background to Cameron and Osborne.
Quite. UKIP do need to get a few Tory moderates to defect - say a Nick Herbert or a Stephen Dorrell - or they'll end up doing Dave's detoxification job for him!
I'm beginning to think a Labour defection is on the cards too - Farage is dropping to many hints for it to be pure fantasy. But whereas the Tory defectors have been the predictable pigs-bladder-on-a-stick wavers (pace tim) the Labour one will probably be someone we've never heard of.
I think not. Let's face it, this was a parliamentary party that did not panic with Captain Brown steaming them at full speed towards an iceberg. Labour MPs have commendable intestinal fortitude, sadly lacking on the Tory right.
What about the intestinal fortitude of the LD parliamentary party. Many of them have no chance under the LD banner, and many others under intense risk, but not much word of jumping ship - just those giving up.
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
The survival of the Tory party long term depends on losing the GE next May and not being in government. So the current events could prove to be a blessing in disguise for them.
Anyone who's got to face the mess when economic confidence and the economy turns down from October next year is going to get it to them on so many fronts (far worse than 2008) that it will be far more preferable to pick up the pieces in 2020. Not that I would expect whichever government comes to power next May (probably a messy coalition as I don't see any feasible or realistic way the Tories or Labour in their current states can win an overall majority) to last a 5 year term as everything stemming from a sovereign debt / economic crisis would tear apart any coalition.
I'm beginning to think a Labour defection is on the cards too - Farage is dropping to many hints for it to be pure fantasy. But whereas the Tory defectors have been the predictable pigs-bladder-on-a-stick wavers (pace tim) the Labour one will probably be someone we've never heard of.
I think not. Let's face it, this was a parliamentary party that did not panic with Captain Brown steaming them at full speed towards an iceberg. Labour MPs have commendable intestinal fortitude, sadly lacking on the Tory right.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
Well I'm a floating voter looking at the British Right once again tearing themselves apart as they've done time and time again since 1990 and the fact is, Tory or UKIP, they are totally unfit for government.
At least Labour hold themselves together even when they despise the things their leader is doing.
Each of these defections just makes me more likely to vote Labour next year - And I'm someone that is sympathetic to having a referendum on the EU, but the Right is just so pathetically self-indulgent that they really deserve nothing more than irrelevance and oblivion which is exactly what they will get when Ed's putting up the curtains in Downing St.
Is UKIP policy actually to leave the EU, or to have a referendum on leaving the EU? Because leaving the EU is generally a pre-requisite to delivery of most of their populist policies (it's apparently largely paying for their tax cuts, and obviously is necessary for their immigration policies). A referendum is not enough if they get the wrong outcome.
I think they assume that the British would vote to get out if offered the chance.
Since 1997 defecting MPs have included Shaun Woodward, Peter Temple-Morris and Quentin Davies. None of them put themselves up for re-election to see what the electorate thought of their decision.
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
It's all very Tea Party esque. It will be painful initially, but if the Tories lose the right - and it doesn't kill them - they will be better off long term.
@JananGanesh : The Tories' problem is not losing people like Reckless, it is failing to keep them out in the first place.
Reckless has a very similar background to Cameron and Osborne.
Quite. UKIP do need to get a few Tory moderates to defect - say a Nick Herbert or a Stephen Dorrell - or they'll end up doing Dave's detoxification job for him!
if detox ends up with Dave and George sharing a taxi it's not really that clever.
Farage on SKY: UKIP 20 points ahead in Boston. UKIP clearly ahead in Eastleigh. UKIP catching up with Labour in Rotherham. UKIP 1 point behind Labour in North Thanet.
Roger Gale is a very popular Tory MP in Thanet North and is probably the only reason why it's still in the Conservative column in the polls.
Farage in Thanet South might have a seepage effect on Thanet North towards UKIP's favor.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
I'd always assumed that the Conservative party believed in people taking personal responsibility for their actions.
The whining self-entitlement and feeble excuse making from this government has killed that assumption.
I can see why Farage has been pushing the challenging of Labour seats, not just Tory ones, because at this rate it will be hard to rebut the idea that UKIP are nothing but angry Tories, something UKIP have been working very hard to break free from, finally with some success in the past year or so.
and a Labour defector (that MP from Shrewsbury over Iraq before Mr Kawczynski came along on the scene
Wasn't he the one who subsequently rejoined Labour with tales of Charlie Kennedy's drinking habits?
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
No. The Tories losing the next election is entirely down to Cameron. If you drive away a large natural section of your support then you cannot then moan when they find somewhere else to lend their support.
Reckless listed a whole load of things that the Conservatives couldn't do, even if they wanted to, because they don't have a Parliamentary majority. Said he "couldn't promise it as a Conservative, but could as UKIP".
Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...
If he'd actually said all of that then you'd have a point.
?did you watch his speech. One of his main slogans was "I can't promise it as a Conservative, but i can as UKIP". Some of the things this applied to were things which the Conservatives couldn't do because of Parliamentary arithmetic. Similarly an EU referendum in this Parliament. Others were just things which the Govt had failed to deliver (but which were only things which were within the gift of a Govt to deliver). Basically things which he could not remotely "promise as UKIP" unless UKIP were in Govt.
I did watch it yes. You twist his words to imply that in the speech he blamed the lack of a majority for being unable to do these things. In fact he blames the lack of will, not ability. Your post was deliberately misleading on that point.
No it was an error in how i drafted my post. My point being that whatever the reasons the Conservatives weren't, or couldn't deliver, he has absolutely no basis for saying he could "promise it as UKIP", without UKIP being in Govt. He could promise to campaign/lobby for these things as an MP, but then that is something he could do whether he was "Conservative" or whether he was "UKIP". What he could not do is promise to deliver them.
Was at the College of Law with Mark, quite surprised he has defected, but he represents a Kent seat which is not particularly well off and ideal UKIP territory.
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
It's all very Tea Party esque. It will be painful initially, but if the Tories lose the right - and it doesn't kill them - they will be better off long term.
If no one from the right votes Tory, who would be left to vote for them? The 6% the LD's get in polls?
Just a thought, but a handful of UKIP MPs might hold the balance of power and form a coalition with Dave. What would they demand? An in-out referendum? Well he's already agreed to that. The other things, as has already been mentioned this afternoon, are mainly not deliverable without leaving the EU.
It would be nice to see a list of their red lines.
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
The survival of the Tory party long term depends on losing the GE next May and not being in government. So the current events could prove to be a blessing in disguise for them.
Anyone who's got to face the mess when economic confidence and the economy turns down from October next year is going to get it to them on so many fronts (far worse than 2008) that it will be far more preferable to pick up the pieces in 2020.
Well of course Mervyn King said pretty much the same thing, about whoever won in 2010 possibly being out of power for a generation due to what they would have to do, and there is some sense to it, but it does seem more and more Tories have begun to give up on struggling through to a win in 2015 being possible, and are now just trying to see the silver lining, like Labour figures interpreting the 2010 loss as, actually, a good thing.
Given the Tory party is more at war with itself than Labour were, amazingly, (or at least openly), it may well be that they need yet more time out of office to rebuild. How depressing for their supporters that after so long in opposition they still had been unable to build a united party able to survive the struggles of a single term of government.
The SkyNews reporter, there to report on the Tory conference, was all but crying into the camera, as he commented on Mark Reckless' defection. He was as devastated as the conservatives will be/are, about this. Probably a tory himself.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
Well I'm a floating voter looking at the British Right once again tearing themselves apart as they've done time and time again since 1990 and the fact is, Tory or UKIP, they are totally unfit for government.
At least Labour hold themselves together even when they despise the things their leader is doing.
Each of these defections just makes me more likely to vote Labour next year - And I'm someone that is sympathetic to having a referendum on the EU, but the Right is just so pathetically self-indulgent that they really deserve nothing more than irrelevance and oblivion which is exactly what they will get when Ed's putting up the curtains in Downing St.
A Miliband victory will further the spread of public discontent and hasten UKIP's inexorable rise. Do get with the programme!
UKIP look pretty damn likely to win a seat in 2015 now, but only 2/9 still available. UKIP also look pretty damn likely to win over 9.5% of the vote in 2015, 8/13 there...
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
No. The Tories losing the next election is entirely down to Cameron. If you drive away a large natural section of your support then you cannot then moan when they find somewhere else to lend their support.
precisely.
the cameroons appear to have difficulty in realising they are responsible for their own actions.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
Of for god sake are you Tories just so arrogant and up your own nether regions that you cannot accept responsibility for your own failures? I really am tired of listening to your pathetic party's whining. Grow a spine and accept that you above all others are responsible for Labour's coming victory. it was you the tories who have continually demonstrated for two decades how broken and dysfunctional you are, It was you with your toxic reputation who pushed half the Libdems support into the Labour camp. It was you who have split the centre right vote and it is you who are losing MPs
Not Farage and UKIP, Not Clegg and the Libdems, Not Miliband and Labour but you, Cameron and the Tories and everytime you try and shift the blame onto others it just makes you look even more pathetic and more like losers!
Is UKIP policy actually to leave the EU, or to have a referendum on leaving the EU? Because leaving the EU is generally a pre-requisite to delivery of most of their populist policies (it's apparently largely paying for their tax cuts, and obviously is necessary for their immigration policies). A referendum is not enough if they get the wrong outcome.
I think [UKIP] assume that the British would vote to get out if offered the chance.
Except they don't. I think the British would vote to get out if offered the chance, but many in UKIP have made clear in recent months that they do not believe a referendum organized by Cameron or anyone not actively campaigning for Out would succeed due to, presumably, the 'mainstream' parties and press twisting things, which apparently the British public would fall for.
It's all very Tea Party esque. It will be painful initially, but if the Tories lose the right - and it doesn't kill them - they will be better off long term.
To be honest I'm not particularly fussed about the Conservative Party per se - that is just a means to an end. It's the prospect of going back to a period, which could be quite a long period, of bad government, in circumstances which are going to be particularly difficult, which is my concern. I wouldn't be so worried if Labour looked vaguely in a state fit to govern even in their own terms. They don't.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
You operate under the misguided fantasy like so many that there is a real difference between current Tory and Labour governments. Both have us inside the EU, which makes around 75% of our decisions. Both want Mr (Carnage) Carney to continue at the BoE with his disastrous machinations over interest rates. Both are committed to the 2020 renewable energy target based on AGW that has had disastrous consequences for our energy bills. Both think its ok to continue borrowing £100bn a year ad infintum without any consequence whatsoever. Both are engaging in war mongering never ending commitments in the Middle East that our country can ill afford.
I was listening to people intending to vote UKIP on Channel 4 last night when interviewed outside Doncaster. They quite rightly see no difference between Labour and Tory. They're coming over to UKIP because they see failure fom the establishment and want to try something new and different. Do you get it now?
I take it you would encourage all former Conservative voters in Heywood & Middleton to vote UKIP at the byelection so as to damage Labour.
No, I don't think so. The biggest help to Labour at the moment is UKIP. A UKIP victory in Heywood & Middleton would be embarrassing for Labour in the short term, but would help Labour at the GE.
UKIP look pretty damn likely to win a seat in 2015 now, but only 2/9 still available. UKIP also look pretty damn likely to win over 9.5% of the vote in 2015, 8/13 there...
Also, 1.73 at William Hill on UKIP to outpoll the Lib Dems.
Just a thought, but a handful of UKIP MPs might hold the balance of power and form a coalition with Dave. What would they demand? An in-out referendum? Well he's already agreed to that. The other things, as has already been mentioned this afternoon, are mainly not deliverable without leaving the EU.
It would be nice to see a list of their red lines.
What if UKIP hold the balance of power with a Labour coalition?
Interesting that Reckless went to Marlborough and Oxford and was Daniel Hannan's best man at his wedding and visa versa, Carswell was an usher at Reckless' wedding and is godfather to Hannan's children and visa versa. Could Hannan be one to watch? If so, he could be a highly effective UKIP leader
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
You operate under the misguided fantasy like so many that there is a real difference between current Tory and Labour governments. Both have us inside the EU, which makes around 75% of our decisions. Both want Mr (Carnage) Carney to continue at the BoE with his disastrous machinations over interest rates. Both are committed to the 2020 renewable energy target based on AGW that has had disastrous consequences for our energy bills. Both think its ok to continue borrowing £100bn a year ad infintum without any consequence whatsoever. Both are engaging in war mongering never ending commitments in the Middle East that our country can ill afford.
I was listening to people intending to vote UKIP on Channel 4 last night when interviewed outside Doncaster. They quite rightly see no difference between Labour and Tory. They're coming over to UKIP because they see failure fom the establishment and want to try something new and different. Do you get it now?
Who are UKIP going to install as head of the BoE by the way? Godfrey isn't a UKIP member any more is he? And he sits on some EU committee with the word economic in its title, so that might an an ideal appointment.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
Of for god sake are you Tories just so arrogant and up your own nether regions that you cannot accept responsibility for your own failures? I really am tired of listening to your pathetic party's whining. Grow a spine and accept that you above all others are responsible for Labour's coming victory. it was you the tories who have cotinually demonstrated for two decades how broken and dysfunctional you are, It was you with your toxic reputation who pushed half the Libdems support into the Labour camp. It was you who have split the centre right vote and it is you who are losing MPs
Not Farage and UKIP, Not Clegg and the Libdems, Not Miliband and Labour but you, Cameron and the Tories and everytime you try and shift the blame onto others it just makes you look even more pathetic and more like losers!
I will vote for the best party to benefit Britain in 2015. I have voted for different parties in the past.
I have some sympathy with the concerns of Kippers, but UKIP has no truly practical solutions to them. It's all fantasy. It's the same as Labour's fantasy that a few rich mansion-owners will solve all the NHS problems.
If you want a referendum on the EU, then a vote for the Conservatives is your best hope. Fact. If you don't and just want to get angry and shout about how bad you think things are, then vote UKIP.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
You operate under the misguided fantasy like so many that there is a real difference between current Tory and Labour governments. Both have us inside the EU, which makes around 75% of our decisions. Both want Mr (Carnage) Carney to continue at the BoE with his disastrous machinations over interest rates. Both are committed to the 2020 renewable energy target based on AGW that has had disastrous consequences for our energy bills. Both think its ok to continue borrowing £100bn a year ad infintum without any consequence whatsoever. Both are engaging in war mongering never ending commitments in the Middle East that our country can ill afford.
I was listening to people intending to vote UKIP on Channel 4 last night when interviewed outside Doncaster. They quite rightly see no difference between Labour and Tory. They're coming over to UKIP because they see failure fom the establishment and want to try something new and different. Do you get it now?
Exactly
And you can add immigration, Rotherham, pandering to the executive oligarchy in both public and private sectors, doing nothing about the English democratic deficit, ever more pointless rules and regulations, etc, etc, etc.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
Of for god sake are you Tories just so arrogant and up your own nether regions that you cannot accept responsibility for your own failures? I really am tired of listening to your pathetic party's whining. Grow a spine and accept that you above all others are responsible for Labour's coming victory. it was you the tories who have continually demonstrated for two decades how broken and dysfunctional you are, It was you with your toxic reputation who pushed half the Libdems support into the Labour camp. It was you who have split the centre right vote and it is you who are losing MPs
Not Farage and UKIP, Not Clegg and the Libdems, Not Miliband and Labour but you, Cameron and the Tories and everytime you try and shift the blame onto others it just makes you look even more pathetic and more like losers!
Well said @ManofKent. The Tories are always prone to blame others for their own actions and/or, mistakes.
I can see why Farage has been pushing the challenging of Labour seats, not just Tory ones, because at this rate it will be hard to rebut the idea that UKIP are nothing but angry Tories, something UKIP have been working very hard to break free from, finally with some success in the past year or so.
and a Labour defector (that MP from Shrewsbury over Iraq before Mr Kawczynski came along on the scene
Wasn't he the one who subsequently rejoined Labour with tales of Charlie Kennedy's drinking habits?
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
they're splitting because the tory high command is ignoring large chunks of its supporters views.
Doesn't the polling say that most voters (and most Conservatives) would vote to stay in the EU post a Dave negotiated deal?
What is he ignoring?
Or is it UKIP and some on the Tory right who know what's better for voters than they do?
err doesn't that rather become a self selecting statistic. If people are sitting on their hands and not voting then you are only surveying an ever decreasing pool. It's the Tebbit point that lots of conservative voters haven't disappeared they've just stop voting conservative.
For me as someone who voted for Cameron in 2010, but won't in 2015 ( and I won't vote kipper either ).
The things that put me off are, failure to reform the banks, the slow rate of deficit reduction, uni fees, overseas aid, no policies for rebalancing the economy, no moves to decentralisation, no push to reduce state influence, no infrastructure plan for the nation, no interest by Cameron in anyone outside the south east, spin, the loss of personal privacy.
Comments
But you can gain the support of people different to you as long as you have some empathy towards them.
And empathy towards people not from their privileged background is what Cammy, Cleggy and Milly are lacking.
UKIP 20 points ahead in Boston.
UKIP clearly ahead in Eastleigh.
UKIP catching up with Labour in Rotherham.
UKIP 1 point behind Labour in North Thanet.
Maybe you should suggest he buggers off and joins UKIP' ( Alanbrook)
Would make my day.
Well, Cameron's still here and tom isn't - back to his farm in Cheshire, or offie in Liverpool, depending on who you believe....
There's also the possibility of defectors who are planning on leaving parliament next year.
http://www.parliament.uk/biographies/commons/gordon-henderson/4050
If we find a Labour MP whose seat might go UKIP then we can find a potential defector.
Actually, the LibDems best course of action would be to encourage him to switch to a hopeless seat. He’d get his pension then and we’d all be rid of him!
My fellow Conservatives, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw UKIP forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.
Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc
Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
However the're so few.
Just the 2 Luton seats, 2 Southampton seats, Plymouth and Slough.
Oh and Great Grimsby.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/market?marketId=1.101416490#/exchange/nav?navNodeId=MENU:26818594
The SDP attracted Brocklebank Fowler as their only Tory SDP defection. And I suppose you could say the LibDems were the last to attract both Tory (Emma Nicholson, Thurnham) and a Labour defector (that MP from Shrewsbury over Iraq before Mr Kawczynski came along on the scene. Although they were years apart!
Cameron, Osborne, Letwin, Avery, fitalass, audreyanne
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
I can only assume his absence is caused by upcoming economic news that even he can't defend.
Anyone who's got to face the mess when economic confidence and the economy turns down from October next year is going to get it to them on so many fronts (far worse than 2008) that it will be far more preferable to pick up the pieces in 2020. Not that I would expect whichever government comes to power next May (probably a messy coalition as I don't see any feasible or realistic way the Tories or Labour in their current states can win an overall majority) to last a 5 year term as everything stemming from a sovereign debt / economic crisis would tear apart any coalition.
At least Labour hold themselves together even when they despise the things their leader is doing.
Each of these defections just makes me more likely to vote Labour next year - And I'm someone that is sympathetic to having a referendum on the EU, but the Right is just so pathetically self-indulgent that they really deserve nothing more than irrelevance and oblivion which is exactly what they will get when Ed's putting up the curtains in Downing St.
The whining self-entitlement and feeble excuse making from this government has killed that assumption.
The 6% the LD's get in polls?
It would be nice to see a list of their red lines.
Given the Tory party is more at war with itself than Labour were, amazingly, (or at least openly), it may well be that they need yet more time out of office to rebuild. How depressing for their supporters that after so long in opposition they still had been unable to build a united party able to survive the struggles of a single term of government.
What is he ignoring?
Or is it UKIP and some on the Tory right who know what's better for voters than they do?
UKIP look pretty damn likely to win a seat in 2015 now, but only 2/9 still available. UKIP also look pretty damn likely to win over 9.5% of the vote in 2015, 8/13 there...
the cameroons appear to have difficulty in realising they are responsible for their own actions.
Not Farage and UKIP, Not Clegg and the Libdems, Not Miliband and Labour but you, Cameron and the Tories and everytime you try and shift the blame onto others it just makes you look even more pathetic and more like losers!
I was listening to people intending to vote UKIP on Channel 4 last night when interviewed outside Doncaster. They quite rightly see no difference between Labour and Tory. They're coming over to UKIP because they see failure fom the establishment and want to try something new and different. Do you get it now?
Milliband/Farage - The dream ticket!
Hahahahahahah....
I have some sympathy with the concerns of Kippers, but UKIP has no truly practical solutions to them. It's all fantasy. It's the same as Labour's fantasy that a few rich mansion-owners will solve all the NHS problems.
If you want a referendum on the EU, then a vote for the Conservatives is your best hope. Fact. If you don't and just want to get angry and shout about how bad you think things are, then vote UKIP.
And you can add immigration, Rotherham, pandering to the executive oligarchy in both public and private sectors, doing nothing about the English democratic deficit, ever more pointless rules and regulations, etc, etc, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Marsden
For me as someone who voted for Cameron in 2010, but won't in 2015 ( and I won't vote kipper either ).
The things that put me off are, failure to reform the banks, the slow rate of deficit reduction, uni fees, overseas aid, no policies for rebalancing the economy, no moves to decentralisation, no push to reduce state influence, no infrastructure plan for the nation, no interest by Cameron in anyone outside the south east, spin, the loss of personal privacy.