The annoying thing about all these recent political "uprisings" (Scottish Independence, UKIP) is that a part of one from a purely political standpoint desperately wants them to actually get hold of power so one can be amused at the whole thing falling apart in no time at all. Unfortunately we don't have the luxury.
I'm sure you're all following Mike on twitter, but if not I recommend it.
He's very busy sniffing out the next Tory rat to jump ship....
True I agree with Mike on this. Private polling has probably been carried to show if Reckless could win his seat under UKIP. Same for Kettering constituency. All potential defectors have probably had polling too.
" Mr. Socrates, I think some investigations are underway (Look North recently reported either 18 or 28 suspects were being investigated), but I concur it seems not nearly enough is being done. It's industrial scale abuse over a prolonged period, with rank incompetence by state authorities (the police losing all the clothing one victim cleverly kept as evidence is unforgivable). "
Two points:
1) You're assuming that the evidence was accidentally lost. If you read the story it suggests something far more sinister.
2) What better way to let the abusers escape justice than these constant reports of 'investigations' and 'day of reckoning'. It gives plenty of time to get a plane to Pakistan. Of course certain people in authority might be very nervous if some abusers started 'naming names'.
Meanwhile Home Secretary Theresa May has taken no action against the South Yorkshire plods.
I'm assuming all those Kippers that slagged of Dave et al for reading PPE will criticise Reckless for reading PPE?
I'm waiting for all those Kippers who criticised Cameron for trying to upstage the Kipper conference to complain about Farage doing the same...
Personally I think it serves them right for all those stage managed 'I'm leaving UKIP because I can no longer tolerate the racism' defections during the European elections.
If that were to happen then all hell could break loose by next May. However, all they are likely to achieve is a Labour government under Ed Miliband which will keep us in Europe and really trash the economy. Ironically this will be especially bad for all of the pensioners who are seduced by the UKIP message. It'd all be very funny were it not so utterly tragic for the country.
Chris Kelly and Gisela Stewart the latest names being floated...
Not a chance.
I don't think any Labour MP's would defect to UKIP. Some like Kelvin Hopkins are EU Sceptic, but they would not want to join UKIP, as they would disagree with many of their policies.
Cameron captain of a sinking ship ? This could lead to more Tories voters going over to UKP. Cameron is not going to resign or do a deal with UKIP. He would rather lose the election.
The business or pleasure joke he made at that dinner was very revealing. He has greater emotional antipathy to an English eurosceptic than he does to a Scottish separatist.
That Matthew Parris article sums up the view of establishment Tories.
Before he introduced Reckless, Farage showed private polling that showed UKIp ahead in Thurrock, Boston &Skegness, Great Yarmouth, Eastleigh, and Thanet South.
Also showed UKIp in strong second places in Rotherham and North Thanet
IMO UKIP won't have any trouble winning a by-election in Rochester & Strood. No danger of Labour slipping throug the middle: plenty of their supporters will vote UKIP.
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
Whilst it will no doubt be painful in the short term, it should be better for the Tories long term. They will be a smaller but more coherent centre right party..
Chris Kelly and Gisela Stewart the latest names being floated...
Not a chance.
I don't think any Labour MP's would defect to UKIP. Some like Kelvin Hopkins are EU Sceptic, but they would not want to join UKIP, as they would disagree with many of their policies.
With the precedent now well and truly set for standing down and forcing a by-election, it is unlikely any Labour MP would defect to UKIP this side of the GE. But after 2015, with an unpopular Labour government, maybe then?
Before he introduced Reckless, Farage showed private polling that showed UKIp ahead in Thurrock, Boston &Skegness, Great Yarmouth, Eastleigh, and Thanet South.
Also showed UKIp in strong second places in Rotherham and North Thanet
UKIP getting ready for another announcement for the end of their conference ? Tories losing two MP's prior to their conference would be pretty difficult for them. Tory conference would turn into one about UKIP and any new policies won't get media coverage.
Or perhaps UKIP will wait until the Tory conference starts and then make the announcement.
Sky News has just reported that the Tories have a list of 5 possible defectors, but Reckless wasn't on that list.
Shows how utterly clueless about this all the Tories are. Including all the Tory PB'ers on here who said no further defections ever since Carswell. Well what little they know. And the reasons behind it all too.
Another defection next Wednesday would be very amusing!
And I don't think UKIP are ahead in Eastleigh. That's going to be a LibDem hold. Until UKIP make a breakthrough on the local council, the LibDems aren't going anywhere there.
Before he introduced Reckless, Farage showed private polling that showed UKIp ahead in Thurrock, Boston &Skegness, Great Yarmouth, Eastleigh, and Thanet South.
Also showed UKIp in strong second places in Rotherham and North Thanet
Can you give us the numbers?
Private polling alert! Seem to remember some PB debate about this the other day.
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
Whilst it will no doubt be painful in the short term, it should be better for the Tories long term. They will be a smaller but more coherent centre right party..
Key word "smaller". If the Tories get any smaller than now, how can they have hopes on winning elections?
UKIP getting ready for another announcement for the end of their conference ? Tories losing two MP's prior to their conference would be pretty difficult for them. Tory conference would turn into one about UKIP and any new policies won't get media coverage.
Or perhaps UKIP will wait until the Tory conference starts and then make the announcement.
They should be thankful that that help to buy policy for first time buyers under 40 isn't getting any airtime. Meddling in the housing market used to be a preoccupation of the Labour party. Now it seems the mantle of the Tories, desperate to prop up a bubble at all costs that is helping the few and not the many. What ever happened to the great free market principles that the Tories espoused at one time?
Defections to UKIP have been well orchestrated and leak free.
UKIP displaying political competence.
Gove is doing an out-standing job as Chief Whip. If enough MPs go this week, then might Dave announce a reshuffle: one of those 'essay crisis' moments where he panics?
The by-election will be interesting. Not impossible that Labour could slip through the middle.
Private polling has probably been done in Stroud on behalf of Reckless, so I think it will be an easy UKIP win.
Yes, a UKIP win has to be favourite but if Labour polled just a little better than in 2010 then they'd set a decent target for them to have to beat. Mind you it remains to be seen that Labour can beat their 2010 performance here.
If that were to happen then all hell could break loose by next May. However, all they are likely to achieve is a Labour government under Ed Miliband which will keep us in Europe and really trash the economy. Ironically this will be especially bad for all of the pensioners who are seduced by the UKIP message. It'd all be very funny were it not so utterly tragic for the country.
All the useful idiots voting Labour will also be shafted. This especially includes the wwc.
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
Whilst it will no doubt be painful in the short term, it should be better for the Tories long term. They will be a smaller but more coherent centre right party..
Key word "smaller". If the Tories get any smaller than now, how can they have hopes on winning elections?
If you hadn't noticed that ship has already sailed. No majority for 22 years and the pendulum is hardly swinging towards them.
I thought Owen Paterson might defect. The only problem is his North Shropshire constituency is a lot less likely than Clacton or Rochester to desert the Tories in either a by-election or general election.
If that were to happen then all hell could break loose by next May. However, all they are likely to achieve is a Labour government under Ed Miliband which will keep us in Europe and really trash the economy. Ironically this will be especially bad for all of the pensioners who are seduced by the UKIP message. It'd all be very funny were it not so utterly tragic for the country.
All the useful idiots voting Labour will also be shafted. This especially includes the wwc.
The by-election will be interesting. Not impossible that Labour could slip through the middle.
Private polling has probably been done in Stroud on behalf of Reckless, so I think it will be an easy UKIP win.
Yes, a UKIP win has to be favourite but if Labour polled just a little better than in 2010 then they'd set a decent target for them to have to beat. Mind you it remains to be seen that Labour can beat their 2010 performance here.
Nah. I think Labour's increases in most Essex and Kent seats are going to lag way behind their national increases next year.
Strikes me now that Farage must be getting a bit nervous that he can't win a seat himself at GE. I doubt he can continue as leader if they have a group of MPs in commons after GE and he's not one of them.
UKIP getting ready for another announcement for the end of their conference ? Tories losing two MP's prior to their conference would be pretty difficult for them. Tory conference would turn into one about UKIP and any new policies won't get media coverage.
Or perhaps UKIP will wait until the Tory conference starts and then make the announcement.
They should be thankful that that help to buy policy for first time buyers under 40 isn't getting any airtime. Meddling in the housing market used to be a preoccupation of the Labour party. Now it seems the mantle of the Tories, desperate to prop up a bubble at all costs that is helping the few and not the many. What ever happened to the great free market principles that the Tories espoused at one time?
The silly thing is that these 100,000 homes they are building will mostly be on land that is not currently desirable to build on. There will also be some relaxation on the build quality of the homes, so they can be built cheaper. So they might come at a 20% discount, but the market value will be stay below that of similar sized homes in the area. If they don't sell, it will be embarassing to the government.
Locally to me, there has been a new development of flats and there was a percentage that were affordable. They could not sell them all and some ended up being rented as social housing. There are now problems with some of the tenants and some of the people who bought are not very happy.
Defectors to UKIP in less winnable constituencies could hold off until the new year and then say it would be pointless to force a byelection with the general election so near.
But there's going to be panic in Conservative circles about who the next defectors will be.
IMO UKIP won't have any trouble winning a by-election in Rochester & Strood. No danger of Labour slipping throug the middle: plenty of their supporters will vote UKIP.
Agreed with that. Heywood and Middleton going to be fascinating a week on Thursday now. Its incredible how Farage has had the stage left wide open to him to go after Labour over Rotherham, Rochdale and the like.
And I think it serves the political establishment right for being ultra complacent about the drop in turnout over the years. Remember the turnout between 1992 and 1997 fell from 78% to around 70/71%. And I well remember how much attention that got in the immediate aftermath of the Blair landslide - not a jot! A lot of older people intending to vote UKIP are people who've not voted since 1992 who were never taken in by Blair, but had already abandoned the Tories. It was only going to be a matter of time before someone filled the void. Farage is proving very adept at doing it. Its been a ticking time bomb waiting to explode on the far away Westminter village - not before time!
Well, I think it's almost definite that another Tory MP will defect in the next few days. The only question is who. My guess is my own MP Adam Afriyie. The Tories who filled the poor man's head with dreams of becoming PM in a cynical attempt to destabilize Dave are the same characters going over to UKIP. Surely he could be bamboozled by them again.
A UKIP win in Rochester & Strood in the by-election would be embarassing for Labour too. Although Newark was affected by boundary changes since 1997 from the seat Fiona Alexander won, they won't be able to say that about R&S. It seems a long time ago from 1997 / 2001 when the North Kent coast constituencies were won by Labour!
If that were to happen then all hell could break loose by next May. However, all they are likely to achieve is a Labour government under Ed Miliband which will keep us in Europe and really trash the economy. Ironically this will be especially bad for all of the pensioners who are seduced by the UKIP message. It'd all be very funny were it not so utterly tragic for the country.
All the useful idiots voting Labour will also be shafted. This especially includes the wwc.
The working class are idiots.
Official Tory policy, really.
They are if they vote Labour. Despite years of voting in Labour MPs and rotten councils, these areas consistently remain the worst places to live in Britain. Liverpool, Glasgow, Rotherham, the sad list goes on.
Well, I think it's almost definite that another Tory MP will defect in the next few days. The only question is who. My guess is my own MP Adam Afriyie. The Tories who filled the poor man's head with dreams of becoming PM in a cynical attempt to destabilize Dave are the same characters going over to UKIP. Surely he could be bamboozled by them again.
Windsor & Eton isn't exactly a place ripe for UKIP though!
What's the latest that a Tory MP could defect and not have to face the voters until the GE? Leics NW went a long time vacant IIRC before the last GE in May 2010.
Before he introduced Reckless, Farage showed private polling that showed UKIp ahead in Thurrock, Boston &Skegness, Great Yarmouth, Eastleigh, and Thanet South.
Also showed UKIp in strong second places in Rotherham and North Thanet
Before he introduced Reckless, Farage showed private polling that showed UKIp ahead in Thurrock, Boston &Skegness, Great Yarmouth, Eastleigh, and Thanet South.
Also showed UKIp in strong second places in Rotherham and North Thanet
Well, I think it's almost definite that another Tory MP will defect in the next few days. The only question is who. My guess is my own MP Adam Afriyie. The Tories who filled the poor man's head with dreams of becoming PM in a cynical attempt to destabilize Dave are the same characters going over to UKIP. Surely he could be bamboozled by them again.
Windsor & Eton isn't exactly a place ripe for UKIP though!
What's the latest that a Tory MP could defect and not have to face the voters until the GE? Leics NW went a long time vacant IIRC before the last GE in May 2010.
Yes, but those who are likely to persuade him wouldn't care less if he were subsequently thrown to the wolves.
Before he introduced Reckless, Farage showed private polling that showed UKIp ahead in Thurrock, Boston &Skegness, Great Yarmouth, Eastleigh, and Thanet South.
Also showed UKIp in strong second places in Rotherham and North Thanet
Can you give us the numbers?
They came up on a big screen on a Smithsonesque bar chart.. hard to see exactly what the numbers are but I think..
Boston (Survation did the polling 10 days ago) UKIP 46 Tory 26 Lab 18
S Thanet (Ashcroft old polling I think) UKIP 33 Con 25 Lab 25
Thanet North (survation) Con 33 UKIP 32
Clacton (Ashcroft) UKIP 56 Con 24
Eastleigh (Survation this week) UKIP 32 Con 29 LD 27
Thurrock was the old Ashcroft MArginals
so was Great Yarmouth
Rotherham ((Survation this week) Labour 45 UKIP 37 Con and LD 5 & 4 I think
Defectors to UKIP in less winnable constituencies could hold off until the new year and then say it would be pointless to force a byelection with the general election so near.
But there's going to be panic in Conservative circles about who the next defectors will be.
On the contrary, a defector's best chance of holding on is to first fight a by-election...
Reckless listed a whole load of things that the Conservatives couldn't do, even if they wanted to, because they don't have a Parliamentary majority. Said he "couldn't promise it as a Conservative, but could as UKIP".
Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...
Does leave Milliband in a bit of a spot, though. He’s going to have people asking more directly about his policies. About the Rotherham problem, too. And EV4EL.
Well, I think it's almost definite that another Tory MP will defect in the next few days. The only question is who. My guess is my own MP Adam Afriyie. The Tories who filled the poor man's head with dreams of becoming PM in a cynical attempt to destabilize Dave are the same characters going over to UKIP. Surely he could be bamboozled by them again.
Windsor & Eton isn't exactly a place ripe for UKIP though!
What's the latest that a Tory MP could defect and not have to face the voters until the GE? Leics NW went a long time vacant IIRC before the last GE in May 2010.
We were discussing this yesterday and a rough estimate would be the beginning of the year. The accepted limit for moving the writ is 3 months from time of vacancy but it can be extended to 4 months if it is close to a GE. The by election must then be held 21 to 27 days after the writ is moved.
I can see why Farage has been pushing the challenging of Labour seats, not just Tory ones, because at this rate it will be hard to rebut the idea that UKIP are nothing but angry Tories, something UKIP have been working very hard to break free from, finally with some success in the past year or so.
"Britain is more than a star on somebody else's flag" - Reckless
It's a great line that UKIP should repeat.
Even if its meaningless rubbish. How many people would even understand it?
Everyone understands flags. The stars clearly represent countries. Even though they stopped at 12 on the flag before hoovering up additional nations.
That'll be the EU flag then, which I suspect most voters have no idea about.
I initially thought he was going on about the US, the Syrian air strikes and Britain being the 51st state. Which would have been a bit bizarre from the party of 'Atlanticism'.
I can see why Farage has been pushing the challenging of Labour seats, not just Tory ones, because at this rate it will be hard to rebut the idea that UKIP are nothing but angry Tories, something UKIP have been working very hard to break free from, finally with some success in the past year or so.
Didn't they announce one of their policies was to abolish Inheritance tax?
A UKIP win in Rochester & Strood in the by-election would be embarassing for Labour too. Although Newark was affected by boundary changes since 1997 from the seat Fiona Alexander won, they won't be able to say that about R&S. It seems a long time ago from 1997 / 2001 when the North Kent coast constituencies were won by Labour!
Fiona Jones. Her predecessor was Richard Alexander.
Well, I think it's almost definite that another Tory MP will defect in the next few days. The only question is who. My guess is my own MP Adam Afriyie. The Tories who filled the poor man's head with dreams of becoming PM in a cynical attempt to destabilize Dave are the same characters going over to UKIP. Surely he could be bamboozled by them again.
Windsor & Eton isn't exactly a place ripe for UKIP though!
What's the latest that a Tory MP could defect and not have to face the voters until the GE? Leics NW went a long time vacant IIRC before the last GE in May 2010.
Isn’t Parliament prorogued at the end of March, to allow a month for campaigning? That would make the last jump-ship moment early Feb, wouldn’t it? Although in practical terms, I would have thought that if someone resigned after the House rises for Christmas no-one would be bothered about a by-election.
Comments
*popcorn*
Only a few weeks back we had the PB cameroons saying anyone who didn't like Dave should just bugger off and join UKIP.
Now that they are they'll be delighted.
Private polling has probably been carried to show if Reckless could win his seat under UKIP.
Same for Kettering constituency.
All potential defectors have probably had polling too.
" Mr. Socrates, I think some investigations are underway (Look North recently reported either 18 or 28 suspects were being investigated), but I concur it seems not nearly enough is being done. It's industrial scale abuse over a prolonged period, with rank incompetence by state authorities (the police losing all the clothing one victim cleverly kept as evidence is unforgivable). "
Two points:
1) You're assuming that the evidence was accidentally lost. If you read the story it suggests something far more sinister.
2) What better way to let the abusers escape justice than these constant reports of 'investigations' and 'day of reckoning'. It gives plenty of time to get a plane to Pakistan. Of course certain people in authority might be very nervous if some abusers started 'naming names'.
Meanwhile Home Secretary Theresa May has taken no action against the South Yorkshire plods.
UKIP displaying political competence.
Also showed UKIp in strong second places in Rotherham and North Thanet
Whilst it will no doubt be painful in the short term, it should be better for the Tories long term. They will be a smaller but more coherent centre right party..
One of you has got the party line mixed up.
Cruddas or Field would be a dream
"I think I'd be quite good at it". How's that whole thing working out for ya Dave?
Or perhaps UKIP will wait until the Tory conference starts and then make the announcement.
Another defection next Wednesday would be very amusing!
And I don't think UKIP are ahead in Eastleigh. That's going to be a LibDem hold. Until UKIP make a breakthrough on the local council, the LibDems aren't going anywhere there.
Labour: “This is a hammer blow to David Cameron's already weakened authority.'
If the Tories get any smaller than now, how can they have hopes on winning elections?
It's a great line that UKIP should repeat.
Kate Hoey maybe, although her seat isn't one where UKIP would have much chance.
Lab-Kip is not gonna happen.
All the useful idiots voting Labour will also be shafted. This especially includes the wwc.
Official Tory policy, really.
You do realise its the UKIP conference taking place at the moment not the Conservative ?
Hope it hasn't gone mouldy.......
Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt 5m
Here's my Aug story in which @MarkReckless denied he would defect to @UKIP after @DouglasCarswell went http://gu.com/p/4x59c/tw via @guardian
Many other potential defectors have also denied defecting, so a denial should not be taken seriously any more.
Correction: 13th November.
Locally to me, there has been a new development of flats and there was a percentage that were affordable. They could not sell them all and some ended up being rented as social housing. There are now problems with some of the tenants and some of the people who bought are not very happy.
It's about as realistic as the Cameron scheduling the HoC recall to disrupt UKIP i.e. bollocks.
Sometimes things happen because it's the appropriate time for them to happen. Not because of some great conspiracy theory
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/labour-challenger-hoping-to-give-8393/
Defectors to UKIP in less winnable constituencies could hold off until the new year and then say it would be pointless to force a byelection with the general election so near.
But there's going to be panic in Conservative circles about who the next defectors will be.
Just seen about Reckless. If the Tories want to win they will. But they do actually have to want to win.
It's bad for Ed Miliband because it will make the Tories want to win!
And I think it serves the political establishment right for being ultra complacent about the drop in turnout over the years. Remember the turnout between 1992 and 1997 fell from 78% to around 70/71%. And I well remember how much attention that got in the immediate aftermath of the Blair landslide - not a jot! A lot of older people intending to vote UKIP are people who've not voted since 1992 who were never taken in by Blair, but had already abandoned the Tories. It was only going to be a matter of time before someone filled the void. Farage is proving very adept at doing it. Its been a ticking time bomb waiting to explode on the far away Westminter village - not before time!
Peter Smith @Redpeter99 28m
Mark Reckless has just done something remarkable. Silenced @DPJHodges AND @LouiseMensch. They said it couldn't be done
UKIP 27,265
Conservatives 15,043
Labour 12,448
Green 3,684
Lib Dems 2,420
UKIP- 41.7%
Conservatives- 23%
Labour- 19%
Green- 5.6%
Lib Dems- 3.7%
He's not a possibility, even remotely.
Lab-Kip is not happening, don't even waste energy thinking about possibles.
It's true she would be the youngest MP by some margin if elected.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10590725
What's the latest that a Tory MP could defect and not have to face the voters until the GE? Leics NW went a long time vacant IIRC before the last GE in May 2010.
Iraq.
There's something rather dishonourable about these defections and very, very, male.
Beware UKIP … you won't win the General Election on testosterone. Alienate women and you'll lose support in hours, as Alex Salmond discovered.
More right wingers with their heads in the clouds going off into oblivion.
British Right unfit for government since 1990!
Boston (Survation did the polling 10 days ago)
UKIP 46
Tory 26
Lab 18
S Thanet (Ashcroft old polling I think)
UKIP 33
Con 25
Lab 25
Thanet North (survation)
Con 33
UKIP 32
Clacton (Ashcroft)
UKIP 56
Con 24
Eastleigh (Survation this week)
UKIP 32
Con 29
LD 27
Thurrock was the old Ashcroft MArginals
so was Great Yarmouth
Rotherham ((Survation this week)
Labour 45
UKIP 37
Con and LD 5 & 4 I think
However, there were some good speeches and they were well received. I haven't seen such energy at a party conference since. . .. 1997.
I will be watching the Tory party conference tomorrow, I'm sure it will be as much fun as the Labour one.
Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...
Hence I said "the dream"
Although in practical terms, I would have thought that if someone resigned after the House rises for Christmas no-one would be bothered about a by-election.