No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Nope. Cameron failed to win a majority at the last election because he abandoned so much of his natural support. The centre ground is just too crowded and to uncertain to be able to abandon your natural constituency. Cameron has never learnt this lesson which is why he is in the position he is in now.
No he achieved a 5% swing from Labour to Conservative, the biggest since 1979.
Whatever the chattering left and right may think on political forums you only win power in this country by taking the centre ground. One of Cameron's great opportunities derives from EdM's propensity to go left.
It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
Afternoon, Mr. Observer,
Maybe the answer to your question lies in recent history. Until not that long ago there were plenty of working class Conservative voters and the Conservative Party could hold seats in our great Northern cities as well as in the rural areas and the South East. Maybe if a party could tap into that mix of concerns again they could pull of the same trick without something having to give.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Nope. Cameron failed to win a majority at the last election because he abandoned so much of his natural support. The centre ground is just too crowded and to uncertain to be able to abandon your natural constituency. Cameron has never learnt this lesson which is why he is in the position he is in now.
It should be remembered that UKIP occupy the centre ground when it comes to immigration.
All the other parties are on the extreme left.
Yes it seems a strange state of affairs where anyone opposing mass immigration from the third world on an unprecedented scale is "extreme".
Arguing against free trade agreements does not mean they oppose them in principle just they oppose specific clauses of particular agreements. One might reasonably consider EU membership to be the ultimate free trade agreement and of course UKIP and many other free traders including many in the Tory party have opposed that one for decades.
Yeah, yeah, but you can't deny the big shift in UKIP's political positioning as it attempts to mop up disaffected WWC voters. It's not specific to the UK, either: it has similarities with the approach taken by the Front National in France, and with other parties in Europe which are often rather misleadingly called 'far right': anti-immigration, anti-establishment, anti-EU, and protectionist. UKIP of course is not as far down the protectionist route as most of its continental European equivalents, but it's very interesting to see it beginning to move in that direction. If it wants disgruntled ex-Labour WWC votes, it makes some sense to do so.
Some of your assessment I agree with, some not. I certainly don't agree that UKIP overall are being protectionist. Indeed leaving the most protectionist, stagnating bloc in the industrialised world is a clear indication of their direction of travel.
This must've happened shortly after I left the computer this afternoon. Mildly surprised, with the timing. If UKIP actually want two triumphs on the 9th they should perhaps have waited, if only to avoid the risk of seeming to be a deeper shade of Tory.
If they win both seats on the 9th that would be critically significant, far more so than (effectively) a chap retaining his seat.
It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
Well the beauty of UKIP is that they can talk all sorts of bollocks to all sorts of different people when they aren't in power.
It's blindingly obvious though that it doesn't add up.
It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
I agree. I have no idea how it will fall but I know which side I want to see win out.
My guess is the right wing side will win. UKIP for years without challenge could easily be labelled as just disaffected Tories, and they've worked damn hard to increase their appeal beyond that, with some success. But they have spent most of their existence in recent times presenting as Tory-Hard, and now a bunch of Tory MPs (albeit not Cameroonians) are catapulted to being prominent voices within their ranks, and their best chances for future gains remain Tory held seats. That suggests to me they will gain loads of votes in Labour seats, but naturally tack further right again as many of their prominent figures sit or come from Tory backgrounds and seats.
They'll probably fall back slightly after that, but should be in a strong enough position by then to not fall apart.
I take it you would encourage all former Conservative voters in Heywood & Middleton to vote UKIP at the byelection so as to damage Labour.
No, I don't think so. The biggest help to Labour at the moment is UKIP. A UKIP victory in Heywood & Middleton would be embarrassing for Labour in the short term, but would help Labour at the GE.
The best way to stop Labour wining another general election is to disintegrate its wwc "our family's always voted Labour, they're the party of the working class" heritage vote.
The SNP have done that in Scotland, its possible that UKIP can do that in England and Wales.
If UKIP win in H&M Labour will suffer a permanent wound.
Absolutely. I would like to see more polls up in Scotland with Westminster VI next May. The one I saw in the immediate aftermath of the Independence vote was something like SNP 40% SLAB 28%. 8% UNS SLAB SNP swing wipes out 19 of the 40 SLAB MP's, It would be very difficult to see how Labour could get anywhere near an overall majority if that happens. And if that's anticipated, then the Tory line of vote UKIP get Labour will be even weaker than it already is.
For the Westminster establishment, having around 30 SNP MP's, 5-10 UKIP MP's, the 18 NI MP's and 3 PC MP's + Galloway and you already have around 60 non-aligned MP's. Which if Tory and Labour were equal in number, then they'd barely be able to muster a majority in coalition with about 30 LibDem MP's. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at a meeting of senior civil servants preparing for the outcome on the morning of the 8th May!
Yes. I can see a parliament elected where the country is virtually ungovernable. Interesting to see the equity indices long-term charts have posted some pretty ominous patterns suggesting a major top.
Watch any money you have invested in a pension fund very carefully from then onwards. Germany has a crisis in its municipalities which simply isn't being reported by the MSM. And I would't fancy being in any public sector pension when push comes to shove. Its going to be a worldwide crisis in the pensions industry - they were setup for 8% a year returns, they haven't stood a chance of making that long term in the low interest rate environment over the past 6 years.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Nope. Cameron failed to win a majority at the last election because he abandoned so much of his natural support. The centre ground is just too crowded and to uncertain to be able to abandon your natural constituency. Cameron has never learnt this lesson which is why he is in the position he is in now.
No he achieved a 5% swing from Labour to Conservative, the biggest since 1979.
Whatever the chattering left and right may think on political forums you only win power in this country by taking the centre ground. One of Cameron's great opportunities derives from EdM's propensity to go left.
What happens if there not enough voters in the centre ground anymore ?
It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
Afternoon, Mr. Observer,
Maybe the answer to your question lies in recent history. Until not that long ago there were plenty of working class Conservative voters and the Conservative Party could hold seats in our great Northern cities as well as in the rural areas and the South East. Maybe if a party could tap into that mix of concerns again they could pull of the same trick without something having to give.
Yes, that definitely seems the way forward for UKIP. So why bother with the policies that are clearly there to pander to Labour voters? Have right wing Tory MPs really joined UKIP to get rid of the bedroom tax?
Speedy: "No, elections are not always won or lost on the centre. Example: 1970,74,79,83,87 " Elections are won or lost on competence, trust, sound arguments, PR, and policy. Those are not exclusively found in the centre ground."
All of those were won on the centre.
1970 definitely 1974 - I assume you mean both of them? Battles of the centre 1979 - a massive example of centre victory. Beware revisionism. When Thatcher campaigned in 1979 it was on the 'sound housewife's purse': she talked every day common language and from there the Conservatives went on to convert Basildon man et.al. 1983 - another top example. Foot was so far left he was nearly in Moscow. 1987 - was just another parade
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
The problem being what politicians call "the centre ground" isn't very popular with the electorate any more.
Exactly. "Centre ground" essentially just means being happy with the status quo. Virtually everyone in the UK agrees that the status quo is terrible and something has to change (with pretty much the only exceptions being the Blairites and Tory "Cameroons"), the disagreement for most people is just about what the change should be.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Nope. Cameron failed to win a majority at the last election because he abandoned so much of his natural support. The centre ground is just too crowded and to uncertain to be able to abandon your natural constituency. Cameron has never learnt this lesson which is why he is in the position he is in now.
No he achieved a 5% swing from Labour to Conservative, the biggest since 1979.
Whatever the chattering left and right may think on political forums you only win power in this country by taking the centre ground. One of Cameron's great opportunities derives from EdM's propensity to go left.
What happens if there not enough voters in the centre ground anymore ?
Absolutely. The centre ground harvests votes when everything is going well economically like it was in the 1990's. Comparing then and now is like comparing apples and oranges. The extremes always rise with economic chaos, always has happened in history and always will. Not that UKIP are extreme, they're filling the gap left so gaping and open by the astonishing incompetence of the Westminster village.
It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
Afternoon, Mr. Observer,
Maybe the answer to your question lies in recent history. Until not that long ago there were plenty of working class Conservative voters and the Conservative Party could hold seats in our great Northern cities as well as in the rural areas and the South East. Maybe if a party could tap into that mix of concerns again they could pull of the same trick without something having to give.
Yes, that definitely seems the way forward for UKIP. So why bother with the policies that are clearly there to pander to Labour voters? Have right wing Tory MPs really joined UKIP to get rid of the bedroom tax?
On the UKIP-Labour wwc votes issue I'm hearing multiple anecdotes re immigration. These are not the Polish immigrants stories of the last decade but far angrier and about Eastern European Roma and the deprivation and crime they bring. I don't know if this is affecting other parts of the country but it certainly is in wwc areas in South Yorkshire.
The 'Eastern Europeans on the dole in their own country but claiming British benefits' also sounds like a story guaranteed to aggravate wwc voters.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Nope. Cameron failed to win a majority at the last election because he abandoned so much of his natural support. The centre ground is just too crowded and to uncertain to be able to abandon your natural constituency. Cameron has never learnt this lesson which is why he is in the position he is in now.
No he achieved a 5% swing from Labour to Conservative, the biggest since 1979.
Whatever the chattering left and right may think on political forums you only win power in this country by taking the centre ground. One of Cameron's great opportunities derives from EdM's propensity to go left.
He failed to win a majority against probably the most unpopular PM in modern history, after one of the largest financial disasters in a century and in what were probably the most benign conditions for the opposition since 1979 (if not a lot earlier).
Under those circumstances a 5% swing is laughable.
UKIP look pretty damn likely to win a seat in 2015 now, but only 2/9 still available. UKIP also look pretty damn likely to win over 9.5% of the vote in 2015, 8/13 there...
To win three or more at 8/11?
Certainly more than possible, but I'd rather take the same odds on them outpolling the Lib Dems which seems even more likely.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Nope. Cameron failed to win a majority at the last election because he abandoned so much of his natural support. The centre ground is just too crowded and to uncertain to be able to abandon your natural constituency. Cameron has never learnt this lesson which is why he is in the position he is in now.
No he achieved a 5% swing from Labour to Conservative, the biggest since 1979.
Whatever the chattering left and right may think on political forums you only win power in this country by taking the centre ground. One of Cameron's great opportunities derives from EdM's propensity to go left.
What happens if there not enough voters in the centre ground anymore ?
Absolutely. The centre ground harvests votes when everything is going well economically like it was in the 1990's. Comparing then and now is like comparing apples and oranges. The extremes always rise with economic chaos, always has happened in history and always will. Not that UKIP are extreme, they're filling the gap left so gaping and open by the astonishing incompetence of the Westminster village.
Except that desperate times usually require moderate measures...
Suzanne Evans retweeted UK Debt Clock @UKDebtClock 4m £1,330,044,498,334 // current UK Public Sector Net Debt // http://debt-clock.org
At the current rate of annual debt reduction Britain will NEVER pay it off. The country is bankrupt, and who made us so over the last 65 years?
I think its over a £100bn higher now because the ONS has changed its calculation.
Though its not the last 65 years when the debt has risen exponentially, only the last 20.
Without looking up the numbers I think the debt was approximately £230bn in 1994 and has been increased by £1,200bn since then.
At the current rate we will see government debt rise by one and a half TRILLION quid in the 1994-2019 generation.
It'll come to a head long before 2019. When economic confidence turns down from October next year, it'll be 2016 I think when the whole shambles falls apart. And nobody in the political establishment has the guts to tell the people that things can't carry on as they are. Which is why they deserve all the contempt that they are getting.
Labour will ape Hollande and tell their captive voters about the magic money tree. getting into power is more important that telling the truth. Voters do not want to hear the truth. They will then expand and import their vote bank in the hope their ponzy scheme will somehow get them over the line in 2020. If they make it that far.
Arguing against free trade agreements does not mean they oppose them in principle just they oppose specific clauses of particular agreements. One might reasonably consider EU membership to be the ultimate free trade agreement and of course UKIP and many other free traders including many in the Tory party have opposed that one for decades.
Yeah, yeah, but you can't deny the big shift in UKIP's political positioning as it attempts to mop up disaffected WWC voters. It's not specific to the UK, either: it has similarities with the approach taken by the Front National in France, and with other parties in Europe which are often rather misleadingly called 'far right': anti-immigration, anti-establishment, anti-EU, and protectionist. UKIP of course is not as far down the protectionist route as most of its continental European equivalents, but it's very interesting to see it beginning to move in that direction. If it wants disgruntled ex-Labour WWC votes, it makes some sense to do so.
Some of your assessment I agree with, some not. I certainly don't agree that UKIP overall are being protectionist. Indeed leaving the most protectionist, stagnating bloc in the industrialised world is a clear indication of their direction of travel.
Isolationist is a better description I think.
You would. But then you are not exactly a neutral observer are you.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Cameron has never won an election.
Yes he did, it just wasn't as good a win as the other kind. There are many types of victory status, like a straight flush vs a royal flush.
Precisely. (Blimey I'm agreeing with you.)
The political landscape has changed and as you rightly say there are different ways to win. David Cameron will have been Prime Minister for 5 years (and possibly longer). I'd say that's a win.
@Hunchman - "Absolutely. I would like to see more polls up in Scotland with Westminster VI next May. The one I saw in the immediate aftermath of the Independence vote was something like SNP 40% SLAB 28%. 8% UNS SLAB SNP swing wipes out 19 of the 40 SLAB MP's, It would be very difficult to see how Labour could get anywhere near an overall majority if that happens. And if that's anticipated, then the Tory line of vote UKIP get Labour will be even weaker than it already is."
Wasn't that a Holyrood poll? I think the Westminster one done concurrently had Labour ahead of the SNP and one seat down on UNS.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
The problem being what politicians call "the centre ground" isn't very popular with the electorate any more.
Exactly. "Centre ground" essentially just means being happy with the status quo. Virtually everyone in the UK agrees that the status quo is terrible and something has to change (with pretty much the only exceptions being the Blairites and Tory "Cameroons"), the disagreement for most people is just about what the change should be.
The Tories started to copy New Labour, just as everyone had had enough of them.
You know if my mp defected,I would be mad as hell and for sure he/she would not get my vote again.
And if mine defected I would certainly look at them more favourably whether or not I had originally voted for them. Party cannon fodder is the last thing I want as my MP.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
The problem being what politicians call "the centre ground" isn't very popular with the electorate any more.
Exactly. "Centre ground" essentially just means being happy with the status quo. Virtually everyone in the UK agrees that the status quo is terrible and something has to change (with pretty much the only exceptions being the Blairites and Tory "Cameroons"), the disagreement for most people is just about what the change should be.
The Tories started to copy New Labour, just as everyone had had enough of them.
An incompetent version of New Labour, that was even further up the a*se of the Establishment than New Labour.
It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
Well the beauty of UKIP is that they can talk all sorts of bollocks to all sorts of different people when they aren't in power.
It's blindingly obvious though that it doesn't add up.
It worked for the LDs. Till they actually had to take decisions.
The Tories confirmation of a policy of abolition of human rights in the UK increases the chances of Libs and Labs making very sure we do not have a Tory government in #GE2015.Vote swapping in marginals makes a deal more sense.Objective of voting-keep the Tories out because it is a very frightening prospect.
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
The survival of the Tory party long term depends on losing the GE next May and not being in government. So the current events could prove to be a blessing in disguise for them.
.
This is, quite seriously, a cliche I have heard before every General Election of my life.
Since 1997 defecting MPs have included Shaun Woodward, Peter Temple-Morris and Quentin Davies. None of them put themselves up for re-election to see what the electorate thought of their decision.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
No. The Tories losing the next election is entirely down to Cameron. If you drive away a large natural section of your support then you cannot then moan when they find somewhere else to lend their support.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
No, elections are not always won or lost on the centre. Example: 1970,74,79,83,87 Elections are won or lost on competence, trust, sound arguments, PR, and policy. Those are not exclusively found in the centre ground.
Elections are usually own on who covers the most political territory in one way or another. In your examples neither major party was in what might be considered the centre ground (caveats about terminology etc).
It was that that led directly to the emergence of the Alliance as a vote getter, and that inside pressure that has led to the centre being where parties have pushed for and fought over ever since.
(This is where I make my argument of the Lib Dems as a major influence and force in modern British politics).
It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
Well the beauty of UKIP is that they can talk all sorts of bollocks to all sorts of different people when they aren't in power.
It's blindingly obvious though that it doesn't add up.
Whereas the Tories talk all sorts of bollocks to all everyone even when they are in power.
Arguing against free trade agreements does not mean they oppose them in principle just they oppose specific clauses of particular agreements. One might reasonably consider EU membership to be the ultimate free trade agreement and of course UKIP and many other free traders including many in the Tory party have opposed that one for decades.
Some of your assessment I agree with, some not. I certainly don't agree that UKIP overall are being protectionist. Indeed leaving the most protectionist, stagnating bloc in the industrialised world is a clear indication of their direction of travel.
Isolationist is a better description I think.
You would. But then you are not exactly a neutral observer are you.
Well thank goodness you are here Richard to provide us with your impartiality. Isolationism seems to me a good description for much of Farage's stance and I'd be interested to know where you think it doesn't apply.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
.
What happens if there not enough voters in the centre ground anymore ?
Absolutely. The centre ground harvests votes when everything is going well economically like it was in the 1990's. Comparing then and now is like comparing apples and oranges. The extremes always rise with economic chaos, always has happened in history and always will. Not that UKIP are extreme, they're filling the gap left so gaping and open by the astonishing incompetence of the Westminster village.
No I think the key is always down to whether people think they are better or worse off. That's the centrism of which I speak: every day common sense of most people who are having to earn a living and want to know who is best suited to maintain their stability with income, taxes, inflation, mortgages etc.
It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
I agree. I have no idea how it will fall but I know which side I want to see win out.
My guess is the right wing side will win. UKIP for years without challenge could easily be labelled as just disaffected Tories, and they've worked damn hard to increase their appeal beyond that, with some success. But they have spent most of their existence in recent times presenting as Tory-Hard, and now a bunch of Tory MPs (albeit not Cameroonians) are catapulted to being prominent voices within their ranks, and their best chances for future gains remain Tory held seats. That suggests to me they will gain loads of votes in Labour seats, but naturally tack further right again as many of their prominent figures sit or come from Tory backgrounds and seats.
They'll probably fall back slightly after that, but should be in a strong enough position by then to not fall apart.
I don't view the battle within UKIP in the way you seem to. I see it more as a battle between the radical/Libertarian small government wing and the socially conservative protectionist wing. Unfortunately I am not as sure as you seem to be about which side would win that battle especially as I am pretty sure there is not as much support for the Libertarian wing amongst the target audience as there is for the protectionist/authoritarian wing.
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
The survival of the Tory party long term depends on losing the GE next May and not being in government. So the current events could prove to be a blessing in disguise for them.
.
This is, quite seriously, a cliche I have heard before every General Election of my life.
Since 1997 defecting MPs have included Shaun Woodward, Peter Temple-Morris and Quentin Davies. None of them put themselves up for re-election to see what the electorate thought of their decision.
Unlike some on here I don't see the Kipper defection-reselection as honourable. They look to me like mass publicity stunts.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
No. The Tories losing the next election is entirely down to Cameron. If you drive away a large natural section of your support then you cannot then moan when they find somewhere else to lend their support.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
No, elections are not always won or lost on the centre. Example: 1970,74,79,83,87 Elections are won or lost on competence, trust, sound arguments, PR, and policy. Those are not exclusively found in the centre ground.
While I don't know about 70 or 74, 79 and 83 were definitely won by the (major) party on the centre. The Labour Party split because it shifted to the left.
It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
Afternoon, Mr. Observer,
Maybe the answer to your question lies in recent history. Until not that long ago there were plenty of working class Conservative voters and the Conservative Party could hold seats in our great Northern cities as well as in the rural areas and the South East. Maybe if a party could tap into that mix of concerns again they could pull of the same trick without something having to give.
Yes, that definitely seems the way forward for UKIP. So why bother with the policies that are clearly there to pander to Labour voters? Have right wing Tory MPs really joined UKIP to get rid of the bedroom tax?
I can't answer that one. Maybe, they see it as an issue of fairness. Wasn't it you that pointed you that the Labour bedroom tax (which nobody is complaining about) only applied to new tenancies whilst the evil Tory bedroom tax was retrospective? Who knows perhaps some UKIP policy makers read your posts here on PB. There is a thought for you to play with.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Cameron has never won an election.
Of course. Is that why he is currently PM?
No, he's PM because Nick Clegg allowed him to become PM.
And Clegg was able to allow it because the Tories were the only ones who he realistically could allow in, due to the success of the Tories in becoming largest party. I really don't understand all these arguments about Cameron winning or not in 2010. No he didn't win a majority, so however well he did he did fail to achieve one of his key aims, but it would be equally as absurd to pretend he did not win in some respect, because he gained masses of seats and was in the strongest position to become PM as a result. It's just people talking past each other even more than is usual for politics.
The Tories confirmation of a policy of abolition of human rights in the UK increases the chances of Libs and Labs making very sure we do not have a Tory government in #GE2015.Vote swapping in marginals makes a deal more sense.Objective of voting-keep the Tories out because it is a very frightening prospect.
Will we get Con/UKIP vote swapping too? Doubt it, but would make it more fun. A kind of ersatz AV.
The Tories confirmation of a policy of abolition of human rights in the UK increases the chances of Libs and Labs making very sure we do not have a Tory government in #GE2015.Vote swapping in marginals makes a deal more sense.Objective of voting-keep the Tories out because it is a very frightening prospect.
I'll never forget when the Tories tried to bring in detention without charge for 90 days.
UKIP look pretty damn likely to win a seat in 2015 now, but only 2/9 still available. UKIP also look pretty damn likely to win over 9.5% of the vote in 2015, 8/13 there...
To win three or more at 8/11?
Certainly more than possible, but I'd rather take the same odds on them outpolling the Lib Dems which seems even more likely.
Yes that seems the better bet
Short odds but 1/4 to win a seat with Hills is big value. They'll be shorter than that to win Clacton
I take it you would encourage all former Conservative voters in Heywood & Middleton to vote UKIP at the byelection so as to damage Labour.
No... wound.
Absolutely.
For the Westminster establishment, having around 30 SNP MP's, 5-10 UKIP MP's, the 18 NI MP's and 3 PC MP's + Galloway and you already have around 60 non-aligned MP's. Which if Tory and Labour were equal in number, then they'd barely be able to muster a majority in coalition with about 30 LibDem MP's. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at a meeting of senior civil servants preparing for the outcome on the morning of the 8th May!
Yes. I can see a parliament elected where the country is virtually ungovernable. Interesting to see the equity indices long-term charts have posted some pretty ominous patterns suggesting a major top.
European equity indexes do for sure, the only thing holding up the world economy right now is the USA. And there seems to have been a major change at the beginning of September when the US Dollar has started to rise, and broken through some major long term resistance this week. I thought the USD strength would only come when the world economy seriously turned down. But it looks like capital is increasingly fleeing the Middle East, Japan and Europe into the US. But on US equities, am looking for a correction on the S&P500 to around 1750-70 area ideally over the next few months. But then we've still got a big rise to come - S&P up to nearly 3,000 before they crash. Am expecting US interest rates to rise, but at the moment, investors critically still see more chance of a return in stocks rather than the derisory returns on offer in cash. Plus the bond market is roughly 3 times the size of the stockmarket. Not much money needs to come out of the US bond market to push the stockmarket to seemingly insane levels. Also whilst institutional money is fully invested in this market, the retail crowd of mum and pop investors aren't. This certainly doesn't feel like a bubble in US stocks yet, but I fully expect it to be by the end of next year.
Am looking at the correction in gold to continue further with the USD strength. A bottom around the $875-910 area would be ideal at the back end of next year. Am then expecting a huge bull market in gold as one of the hedges against the chaos from the sovereign debt crisis from then. Its going to be quite a ride to put it mildly.
Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.
The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.
It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.
Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
The survival of the Tory party long term depends on losing the GE next May and not being in government. So the current events could prove to be a blessing in disguise for them.
.
This is, quite seriously, a cliche I have heard before every General Election of my life.
Since 1997 defecting MPs have included Shaun Woodward, Peter Temple-Morris and Quentin Davies. None of them put themselves up for re-election to see what the electorate thought of their decision.
Unlike some on here I don't see the Kipper defection-reselection as honourable. They look to me like mass publicity stunts.
Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.
"Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
When UKIP fail to form the next government, and Miliband refuses a referendum, will you accept it's Farage's responsibility for that failure?
No. The Tories losing the next election is entirely down to Cameron. If you drive away a large natural section of your support then you cannot then moan when they find somewhere else to lend their support.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
No, elections are not always won or lost on the centre. Example: 1970,74,79,83,87 Elections are won or lost on competence, trust, sound arguments, PR, and policy. Those are not exclusively found in the centre ground.
While I don't know about 70 or 74, 79 and 83 were definitely won by the (major) party on the centre. The Labour Party split because it shifted to the left.
UKIP look pretty damn likely to win a seat in 2015 now, but only 2/9 still available. UKIP also look pretty damn likely to win over 9.5% of the vote in 2015, 8/13 there...
To win three or more at 8/11?
Certainly more than possible, but I'd rather take the same odds on them outpolling the Lib Dems which seems even more likely.
Yes that seems the better bet
Short odds but 1/4 to win a seat with Hills is big value. They'll be shorter than that to win Clacton
Already 1/5 now. Wish wish wish I'd put more on at 11/5...grr.
In other but related developments, Dan Hodges is readying his towel and honing his throwing skills. Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 2h Few people tweeting me "Ha! Reckless! Still think Tories will win!". Yes. But if it keeps happening they won't, I was wrong and Ed's PM.
It's still not entirely clear to me how UKIP is simultaneously gong to be a party of right wing Tory MPs and working class Labourites. Social conservatism and being anti-EU may work short term, but longer term I just don't see it. Something will have to give.
I agree. I have no idea how it will fall but I know which side I want to see win out.
My guess is the right wing side will win. UKIP for years without challenge could easily be labelled as just disaffected Tories, and they've worked damn hard to increase their appeal beyond that, with some success. But they have spent most of their existence in recent times presenting as Tory-Hard, and now a bunch of Tory MPs (albeit not Cameroonians) are catapulted to being prominent voices within their ranks, and their best chances for future gains remain Tory held seats. That suggests to me they will gain loads of votes in Labour seats, but naturally tack further right again as many of their prominent figures sit or come from Tory backgrounds and seats.
They'll probably fall back slightly after that, but should be in a strong enough position by then to not fall apart.
I don't view the battle within UKIP in the way you seem to. I see it more as a battle between the radical/Libertarian small government wing and the socially conservative protectionist wing. Unfortunately I am not as sure as you seem to be about which side would win that battle especially as I am pretty sure there is not as much support for the Libertarian wing amongst the target audience as there is for the protectionist/authoritarian wing.
Admittedly my own confidence in my predictions has been undermined somewhat by being out on the IndyRef by 8 points. Whether or not Labour win a majority will determine how clueless I am on such matters.
Though I am getting closer to my long term prediction on this one:
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Nope. Cameron failed to win a majority at the last election because he abandoned so much of his natural support. The centre ground is just too crowded and to uncertain to be able to abandon your natural constituency. Cameron has never learnt this lesson which is why he is in the position he is in now.
No he achieved a 5% swing from Labour to Conservative, the biggest since 1979.
Whatever the chattering left and right may think on political forums you only win power in this country by taking the centre ground. One of Cameron's great opportunities derives from EdM's propensity to go left.
What happens if there not enough voters in the centre ground anymore ?
Absolutely. The centre ground harvests votes when everything is going well economically like it was in the 1990's. Comparing then and now is like comparing apples and oranges. The extremes always rise with economic chaos, always has happened in history and always will. Not that UKIP are extreme, they're filling the gap left so gaping and open by the astonishing incompetence of the Westminster village.
Except that desperate times usually require moderate measures...
I am not sure many would consider Roosevelt's New Deal moderate. That is not to criticise it, just to point out that it was a pretty extreme (and necessary) response to the problems of the US in the 1930s
@Hunchman - "Absolutely. I would like to see more polls up in Scotland with Westminster VI next May. The one I saw in the immediate aftermath of the Independence vote was something like SNP 40% SLAB 28%. 8% UNS SLAB SNP swing wipes out 19 of the 40 SLAB MP's, It would be very difficult to see how Labour could get anywhere near an overall majority if that happens. And if that's anticipated, then the Tory line of vote UKIP get Labour will be even weaker than it already is."
Wasn't that a Holyrood poll? I think the Westminster one done concurrently had Labour ahead of the SNP and one seat down on UNS.
I thought it was Westminster VI (the next Scottish election isn't until 2016), but as I say - we need to see more polls!
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Cameron has never won an election.
Yes he did, it just wasn't as good a win as the other kind. There are many types of victory status, like a straight flush vs a royal flush.
Precisely. (Blimey I'm agreeing with you.)
The political landscape has changed and as you rightly say there are different ways to win. David Cameron will have been Prime Minister for 5 years (and possibly longer). I'd say that's a win.
Rubbish. Labour could have formed a Government with the Lib Dems. The fact they didn't is down to the Lib Dem's choice. That's not winning an election. It's being successful in attracting a coalition partner. Two very different things.
Well thank goodness you are here Richard to provide us with your impartiality. Isolationism seems to me a good description for much of Farage's stance and I'd be interested to know where you think it doesn't apply.
At least I am willing to criticise the party I lend my vote to rather than being an uncritical supporter.
And of course leaving the EU is the very antithesis of isolationism.
Bad day for us righties tempted buyukip but motivated by keep miliband out at all costs. On the plus side I am off to see Kate Bush now. "Oh England, my lionheart!"
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Nope. Cameron failed to win a majority at the last election because he abandoned so much of his natural support. The centre ground is just too crowded and to uncertain to be able to abandon your natural constituency. Cameron has never learnt this lesson which is why he is in the position he is in now.
No he achieved a 5% swing from Labour to Conservative, the biggest since 1979.
Whatever the chattering left and right may think on political forums you only win power in this country by taking the centre ground. One of Cameron's great opportunities derives from EdM's propensity to go left.
What happens if there not enough voters in the centre ground anymore ?
Absolutely. The centre ground harvests votes when everything is going well economically like it was in the 1990's. Comparing then and now is like comparing apples and oranges. The extremes always rise with economic chaos, always has happened in history and always will. Not that UKIP are extreme, they're filling the gap left so gaping and open by the astonishing incompetence of the Westminster village.
Except that desperate times usually require moderate measures...
I am not sure many would consider Roosevelt's New Deal moderate. That is not to criticise it, just to point out that it was a pretty extreme (and necessary) response to the problems of the US in the 1930s
I am not a Roosevelt fan, from a domestic policy perspective. I will find you some links, especially about the early damage he did to the banking system, that I think you'll find interesting.
No. General Elections are won or lost on the centre ground, not at the extremes. This was Tony Blair's great discovery. It's Cameron's too.
Cameron has never won an election.
Yes he did, it just wasn't as good a win as the other kind. There are many types of victory status, like a straight flush vs a royal flush.
Precisely. (Blimey I'm agreeing with you.)
The political landscape has changed and as you rightly say there are different ways to win. David Cameron will have been Prime Minister for 5 years (and possibly longer). I'd say that's a win.
Rubbish. Labour could have formed a Government with the Lib Dems. .
Not without further partners as well. It would have better for the LDs if they could have granted a Labour government or a Tory government with their influence alone. More bargaining power.
I'm staying in a fucking amazing hotel. Therasia resort, Vulcano, Aeolia, Sicily, courtesy of the estimable Mister Murdoch.
They claim they have "the best view in the Mediterranean" and I'm not sure they're wrong - the infinity pool overlooks the entire Aeolian archipelago, from Alicudi to Stromboli.
What is it with UKIPpers and their automatic knee jerk fall back on the claim that anyone who doesn't agree with their political world view must therefore lack 'principles'. If I had collected a pound in a tin for every time a UKIP supporter had lobbed that insult at a Conservative supporting poster here or on ConHom in the last decade, I could have made a nice donation to the Conservative party this weekend. Like many other party supporters and voters out there, I don't agree with you, get over it.
I didn't think that Carsewell was that big a loss to the Conservative Party, and certainly not any more than Reckless was today. Can't say that I am surprised at the news of the Reckless defection today either, I made it a point to check which Tory MP's didn't vote with the Government yesterday. But hey ho, another unnecessary by-election just months before the next GE, anyone would think the taxpayer isn't going to get fed up footing the bill for these UKIP publicity stunts.
Twitter Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 17 mins Chris Buckwell, secretary of Rochester Conservatives, tells #C4News they got assurances from Reckless two weeks ago he wouldn't defect
The loss of Carswell was a big blow to the Tories but Reckless very much less so, particularly as they have a big chance of actually defeating Reckless at the by-election.
Your lack of principles is shameful but not surprising.
What is it with UKIPpers and their automatic knee jerk reaction fall back on the claim that anyone who doesn't agree with their political world view must therefore lack 'principles'. If I had collected a pound in a tin for every time that insult has been lobbed at a Conservative supporting poster here or on ConHom in the last decade, I could have made a nice donation to the Conservative party this weekend.
I was responding to your specific posting
"But hey ho, another unnecessary by-election just months before the next GE, anyone would think the taxpayer isn't going to get fed up footing the bill for these UKIP publicity stunts."
Jim Waterson @jimwaterson 2m Time to watch the Sunday papers for another bit of Tory fun. Brooks Newmark MP quits over sending "inappropriate pics" online. Old school.
"But hey ho, another unnecessary by-election just months before the next GE, anyone would think the taxpayer isn't going to get fed up footing the bill for these UKIP publicity stunts."
What is it with UKIPpers and their automatic knee jerk reaction fall back on the claim that anyone who doesn't agree with their political world view must therefore lack 'principles'. If I had collected a pound in a tin for every time that insult has been lobbed at a Conservative supporting poster here or on ConHom in the last decade, I could have made a nice donation to the Conservative party this weekend.
I didn't think that Carsewell was that big a loss to the Conservative Party, and certainly not any more than Reckless was today. Can't say that I am surprised at the news of the Reckless defection today either, I made it a point to check which Tory MP's didn't vote with the Government yesterday. But hey ho, another unnecessary by-election just months before the next GE, anyone would think the taxpayer isn't going to get fed up footing the bill for these UKIP publicity stunts.
Twitter Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 17 mins Chris Buckwell, secretary of Rochester Conservatives, tells #C4News they got assurances from Reckless two weeks ago he wouldn't defect
The loss of Carswell was a big blow to the Tories but Reckless very much less so, particularly as they have a big chance of actually defeating Reckless at the by-election.
Your lack of principles is shameful but not surprising.
Well we all know that all Tories are really UKIP supporters at heart, therefore if you haven't yet defected you lack principles. Well known.
Mr. Corporeal, the music and cartoons were better. Videogame graphics less so. (That said, my Playstation copy of Worms Armageddon has aged surprisingly well).
Comments
Whatever the chattering left and right may think on political forums you only win power in this country by taking the centre ground. One of Cameron's great opportunities derives from EdM's propensity to go left.
Maybe the answer to your question lies in recent history. Until not that long ago there were plenty of working class Conservative voters and the Conservative Party could hold seats in our great Northern cities as well as in the rural areas and the South East. Maybe if a party could tap into that mix of concerns again they could pull of the same trick without something having to give.
This must've happened shortly after I left the computer this afternoon. Mildly surprised, with the timing. If UKIP actually want two triumphs on the 9th they should perhaps have waited, if only to avoid the risk of seeming to be a deeper shade of Tory.
If they win both seats on the 9th that would be critically significant, far more so than (effectively) a chap retaining his seat.
It's blindingly obvious though that it doesn't add up.
They'll probably fall back slightly after that, but should be in a strong enough position by then to not fall apart.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/27/the-pension-crisis-2-trillion-hole-in-just-top-25-funds/
Watch any money you have invested in a pension fund very carefully from then onwards. Germany has a crisis in its municipalities which simply isn't being reported by the MSM. And I would't fancy being in any public sector pension when push comes to shove. Its going to be a worldwide crisis in the pensions industry - they were setup for 8% a year returns, they haven't stood a chance of making that long term in the low interest rate environment over the past 6 years.
"No, elections are not always won or lost on the centre.
Example: 1970,74,79,83,87 "
Elections are won or lost on competence, trust, sound arguments, PR, and policy. Those are not exclusively found in the centre ground."
All of those were won on the centre.
1970 definitely
1974 - I assume you mean both of them? Battles of the centre
1979 - a massive example of centre victory. Beware revisionism. When Thatcher campaigned in 1979 it was on the 'sound housewife's purse': she talked every day common language and from there the Conservatives went on to convert Basildon man et.al.
1983 - another top example. Foot was so far left he was nearly in Moscow.
1987 - was just another parade
I agree though about competence for sure.
On the UKIP-Labour wwc votes issue I'm hearing multiple anecdotes re immigration. These are not the Polish immigrants stories of the last decade but far angrier and about Eastern European Roma and the deprivation and crime they bring. I don't know if this is affecting other parts of the country but it certainly is in wwc areas in South Yorkshire.
The 'Eastern Europeans on the dole in their own country but claiming British benefits' also sounds like a story guaranteed to aggravate wwc voters.
Under those circumstances a 5% swing is laughable.
Hehehe.
*Another interior decoration catalogue, Mr Miliband?*
Labour will ape Hollande and tell their captive voters about the magic money tree. getting into power is more important that telling the truth. Voters do not want to hear the truth. They will then expand and import their vote bank in the hope their ponzy scheme will somehow get them over the line in 2020. If they make it that far.
Touch and go how it will all pan out.
The political landscape has changed and as you rightly say there are different ways to win. David Cameron will have been Prime Minister for 5 years (and possibly longer). I'd say that's a win.
Wasn't that a Holyrood poll? I think the Westminster one done concurrently had Labour ahead of the SNP and one seat down on UNS.
Of course. Is that why he is currently PM?
Recipe for success, right there.
It worked for the LDs. Till they actually had to take decisions.
It was that that led directly to the emergence of the Alliance as a vote getter, and that inside pressure that has led to the centre being where parties have pushed for and fought over ever since.
(This is where I make my argument of the Lib Dems as a major influence and force in modern British politics).
Such is the era we are in.
1. How early did you realise the LDs were screwed?
2. How early did you realise UKIP's time had come?
So why didn´t they go for Gordo? Was Gordo the winner then? Unbeknownst to us mere mortals.
Will we get Con/UKIP vote swapping too? Doubt it, but would make it more fun. A kind of ersatz AV.
Oh no hang on a minute it was Labour.
Short odds but 1/4 to win a seat with Hills is big value. They'll be shorter than that to win Clacton
Hills are 5/2 UKIP to win '5 or more' seats.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/9035/General-Election-Specials.html
Who'd have predicted this 5 years ago: UKIP are now shorter odds to win 5 or more seats in 2015 than 0 seats?
Hung and deeply fractured parliament zooming into view like a giant block of ice on the good ship Titanic.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 2h
Few people tweeting me "Ha! Reckless! Still think Tories will win!". Yes. But if it keeps happening they won't, I was wrong and Ed's PM.
Though I am getting closer to my long term prediction on this one:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29373230
The outgoing head of the civil service has predicted another five years of UK government spending cuts
Conservative minister resigns over sex scandal
Brooks Newmark, the Conservative minister for civil society, resigns over a sex scandal
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11125919/Conservative-minister-resigns-over-sex-scandal.html
Sleazy Tories in meltdown
And of course leaving the EU is the very antithesis of isolationism.
Double disaster for Dave after Brooks Newmark resigns as minister after sending inappropriate messages on social media
Breaking: Minister Brooks Newmark MP has resigned over a sex scandal to do with social media to be published in tomorrow's Mirror
"But hey ho, another unnecessary by-election just months before the next GE, anyone would think the taxpayer isn't going to get fed up footing the bill for these UKIP publicity stunts."
Which shows a complete lack of principles.
Time to watch the Sunday papers for another bit of Tory fun. Brooks Newmark MP quits over sending "inappropriate pics" online. Old school.
Nothing to see here.