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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Swiss_Bob said:

    Itajai said:

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    I tend to think of what's happening at the moment as the revenge of the lower-middle and upper-working classes. They've been either ignored or ridiculed ever since John Major left Downing Street in favour of the concerns of those at the very top and very bottom of society.

    It's the Tories' failure to engage with the C1/C2s that has meant they have struggled to build a winning electoral platform for 20 years.

    I don't believe that group is especially political - they was competant and efficient government, sensible economic policy (and I include immigration within that) and a leader who appears engaged with their needs.

    The problem is the Tories despise them. Well, so do the LDs and Labour. Not yet sure about UKIP.
    Er, UKIP seem to be to be mostly comprised of C1/C2s, and there's nothing wrong with that, unless you hate the working class.

    Possibly. Though all UKIPers I have ever met seem to be ABs. That may reflect my circle of friends though.
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    So what 90s pop music references shall I put into the next thread.

    Political Manoeuvres in the Dark?
    OMD were an 80s band - mostly!
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Plato said:

    Ditto - I'm a pragmatist here and always.

    Jonathan said:

    It's all very Tea Party esque. It will be painful initially, but if the Tories lose the right - and it doesn't kill them - they will be better off long term.

    To be honest I'm not particularly fussed about the Conservative Party per se - that is just a means to an end. It's the prospect of going back to a period, which could be quite a long period, of bad government, in circumstances which are going to be particularly difficult, which is my concern. I wouldn't be so worried if Labour looked vaguely in a state fit to govern even in their own terms. They don't.
    You're the most infamous Blairite on here Plato...

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    Speedy said:

    Still this scandal has nothing on the Stephen Milligan or Mark Oaten scandals.

    The Milligan scandal was the worst of them.
    But nothing beats Profumo.
    Both were Tories?

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited September 2014
    I wonder how The Mirror found out, was it a case of an aggrieved party passing them the pictures of the unruly member for Braintree. On the other hand if they had allegedly gathered them electronically...

    Wonder what he thinks of a free press, though I do wonder when The Mirror had the tip off. Being very cynical, I might have forgotten about why Trinity Mirror were in trouble earlier this week. Every little bit of sleaze helps...

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    RodCrosby said:

    Can it get worse for Dave:

    Conservative minister resigns over sex scandal
    Brooks Newmark, the Conservative minister for civil society, resigns over a sex scandal


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11125919/Conservative-minister-resigns-over-sex-scandal.html

    What a silly wanker...
    Farage and frottage day for the Tories.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Still this scandal has nothing on the Stephen Milligan or Mark Oaten scandals.

    The Milligan scandal was the worst of them.
    But nothing beats Profumo.
    Rubbish! Profumo was just a bloke going through a bit of a mid-life crisis - proto David Mellor stuff.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iY6_9Qvj8I4
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    This would probably be Nigel Farage's 90's Song of the Day:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYEC4TZsy-Y
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2014
    Oops - you will see that as a tautology and I'm flashing my PB cards again.

    I remember when this place used to be fun...
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    ComRes poll to be published at 7.30pm
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    Charles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    hunchman said:

    Just watched the BBC clip of Reckless announcing his defection. Was more akin to the Darts at the Ally Palace brimming with energy! What a contrast with the dreary clapped out Labour conference in Manchester this week. And you can't imagine the atmosphere at the Tory conference being much different.

    "Clapped out" or not, Labour's sweeping to power next year thanks to the recklessness of Reckless.
    People rarely turn their back on something because its functional and working. In any case if the Tories were good enough the defection of Reckless would be immaterial.

    Why do the Tories always have to blame everybody else? Its UKIPs fault they will lose the election, its the Libdems fault they can't do the policies they want. Its the EU's fault they can't do anything about immigration etc etc etc

    Given the Tories seem to have no control over their own fate why would anyone want to vote for them?When are the Tories going to grow a pair and take responsibility for their own failures?
    Well I'm a floating voter looking at the British Right once again tearing themselves apart as they've done time and time again since 1990 and the fact is, Tory or UKIP, they are totally unfit for government.

    At least Labour hold themselves together even when they despise the things their leader is doing.

    Each of these defections just makes me more likely to vote Labour next year - And I'm someone that is sympathetic to having a referendum on the EU, but the Right is just so pathetically self-indulgent that they really deserve nothing more than irrelevance and oblivion which is exactly what they will get when Ed's putting up the curtains in Downing St.
    Why, as a floating voter, do the most exotic beasts leaving make the menagerie less attractive?
    It's not really related to to any one individual it just looks very self indulgent and self absorbed.




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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    hunchman said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tory party splitting over Europe. Who'd have thought it possible.

    The odd thing is that they aren't particularly splitting over Europe; indeed UKIP seems to have given up being interested in the EU.

    It's actually quite hard to know what they are splitting over.

    Anyway, the net result is clearly that Labour benefit, which in the current circumstances is pretty disastrous.
    The survival of the Tory party long term depends on losing the GE next May and not being in government. So the current events could prove to be a blessing in disguise for them.

    Anyone who's got to face the mess when economic confidence and the economy turns down from October next year is going to get it to them on so many fronts (far worse than 2008) that it will be far more preferable to pick up the pieces in 2020.
    Well of course Mervyn King said pretty much the same thing, about whoever won in 2010 possibly being out of power for a generation due to what they would have to do, and there is some sense to it, but it does seem more and more Tories have begun to give up on struggling through to a win in 2015 being possible, and are now just trying to see the silver lining, like Labour figures interpreting the 2010 loss as, actually, a good thing.

    Given the Tory party is more at war with itself than Labour were, amazingly, (or at least openly), it may well be that they need yet more time out of office to rebuild. How depressing for their supporters that after so long in opposition they still had been unable to build a united party able to survive the struggles of a single term of government.
    I don't think this is particularly a Tory problem (don't forget the LibDems have already fractured): it's the strains of coalition and the necessary compromises that is alienting the purists
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    matt said:

    As an aside, didn't UKIP whine about their conference being "disrupted" by parliament sitting but planned to do this to the Conservatives. A touch hypocritical perhaps.

    Well, UKIP also have professional politicians regularly criticising others for being professional politicians, and are accepting Westminster elites with joy (albeit unconventional ones - Reckless may have only been elected in 2010, but was a candidate at several GEs before, so a professional politico) at the moment, so some things are ok in specific scenarios, just not in general.

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    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    Well quite - another numpty. TBH, I'm glad they effed off to the Kippers - now they've no voice in the Tories.

    alex said:

    Reckless listed a whole load of things that the Conservatives couldn't do, even if they wanted to, because they don't have a Parliamentary majority. Said he "couldn't promise it as a Conservative, but could as UKIP".

    Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...

    How can this make sense?

    Labour will win power (almost inevitably, now, in 2015) with a party including Dennis Skinner, Kate Hoey, Ed Balls, Len McCluskey, Owen Jones and Dan Hodges (kinda). From peaceniks to warmongers, from deficit deniers to mild deficit hawks. And europhile to eurosceptic.

    That's how you win, in the British electoral system. You pilot an aircraft carrier which accommodates biplanes and Stealth Fighters, even if they are strategically conflicting.

    Cameron's BIG problem is that his effete Etonian leadership has alienated an entire school of right-wing thinking: he is Captain Bligh facing the Mutiny on the Bounty, and thus the Right has spit. He is, in other words, crap.
    Hodges has resigned from Labour.
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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    Well quite - another numpty. TBH, I'm glad they effed off to the Kippers - now they've no voice in the Tories.

    alex said:

    Reckless listed a whole load of things that the Conservatives couldn't do, even if they wanted to, because they don't have a Parliamentary majority. Said he "couldn't promise it as a Conservative, but could as UKIP".

    Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...

    How can this make sense?

    Labour will win power (almost inevitably, now, in 2015) with a party including Dennis Skinner, Kate Hoey, Ed Balls, Len McCluskey, Owen Jones and Dan Hodges (kinda). From peaceniks to warmongers, from deficit deniers to mild deficit hawks. And europhile to eurosceptic.

    That's how you win, in the British electoral system. You pilot an aircraft carrier which accommodates biplanes and Stealth Fighters, even if they are strategically conflicting.

    Cameron's BIG problem is that his effete Etonian leadership has alienated an entire school of right-wing thinking: he is Captain Bligh facing the Mutiny on the Bounty, and thus the Right has spit. He is, in other words, crap.
    Tories are shit. They don´t have the killer instinct Labour does.
    Rotherham ~an open goal, yet they don´t bother.
    Labour says nothing on the economy and immigration ~ another open goal they will ignore

    All Labour need to do is promise the magic money tree and their vote bank will come out. Tories will be too busy apologising about themselves.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Best comment of the day:

    Rob Preece ‏@RobPreeceOnline 4m
    Reckless. Newmark. The Conservatives are having an even worse conference than Labour did. And it hasn't even started yet.
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    Mr. T, Cameron should've handled things better. On the other hand, Carswell certainly appears to have jumped ship for reasons largely involving continuing the political career of Carswell. It seems to be ego-driven more than anything else.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,949
    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    Well quite - another numpty. TBH, I'm glad they effed off to the Kippers - now they've no voice in the Tories.

    alex said:

    Reckless listed a whole load of things that the Conservatives couldn't do, even if they wanted to, because they don't have a Parliamentary majority. Said he "couldn't promise it as a Conservative, but could as UKIP".

    Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...

    How can this make sense?

    Labour will win power (almost inevitably, now, in 2015) with a party including Dennis Skinner, Kate Hoey, Ed Balls, Len McCluskey, Owen Jones and Dan Hodges (kinda). From peaceniks to warmongers, from deficit deniers to mild deficit hawks. And europhile to eurosceptic.

    That's how you win, in the British electoral system. You pilot an aircraft carrier which accommodates biplanes and Stealth Fighters, even if they are strategically conflicting.

    Cameron's BIG problem is that his effete Etonian leadership has alienated an entire school of right-wing thinking: he is Captain Bligh facing the Mutiny on the Bounty, and thus the Right has spit. He is, in other words, crap.
    I suspect the Tories would be having these problems whoever was leading them, to be honest.

    Cameron has made some mistakes with his party management, but the Conservatives have been a unleadable rabble since 1990.

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014

    Speedy said:

    Still this scandal has nothing on the Stephen Milligan or Mark Oaten scandals.

    The Milligan scandal was the worst of them.
    But nothing beats Profumo.
    Both were Tories?

    There is nothing as amusing than conservatives (and republicans in the USA) in a sex scandal, because you would expect them not having any sex in the first place.
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    Swiss_Bob said:

    We should have a PB poll.

    Which decade had the best music?

    70s?

    80s?

    90s?

    Easy, the 70s.
    Absolutely. Though I do admire Richard N's elegant response...



    Definitely not the 90s.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    This does look like a fake. But things are getting really bad if true.

    @gloryoftheSon @Apires111 @Rscease @RKingLive2Dance @LyndaG1963 pic.twitter.com/OWHDfyLbnC

    — Shawn Stevens (@shawnstevens170) September 27, 2014
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    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Still this scandal has nothing on the Stephen Milligan or Mark Oaten scandals.

    The Milligan scandal was the worst of them.
    But nothing beats Profumo.
    Both were Tories?

    There is nothing as amusing than conservatives (and republicans in the USA) in a sex scandal.
    Weiner was/is a democrat and he supplied hours of hilarity.
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    Does anyone think the other rumoured defection might surface on Wednesday perhaps?
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    MikeK said:

    Best comment of the day:

    Rob Preece ‏@RobPreeceOnline 4m
    Reckless. Newmark. The Conservatives are having an even worse conference than Labour did. And it hasn't even started yet.

    No, not worse than Labour's. The potential future PM showed how lacking he is in the basic requirements to be leader. It's an 8 month interview which he screwed up in the first few minutes.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    Well quite - another numpty. TBH, I'm glad they effed off to the Kippers - now they've no voice in the Tories.

    alex said:

    Reckless listed a whole load of things that the Conservatives couldn't do, even if they wanted to, because they don't have a Parliamentary majority. Said he "couldn't promise it as a Conservative, but could as UKIP".

    Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...

    How can this make sense?

    Labour will win power (almost inevitably, now, in 2015) with a party including Dennis Skinner, Kate Hoey, Ed Balls, Len McCluskey, Owen Jones and Dan Hodges (kinda). From peaceniks to warmongers, from deficit deniers to mild deficit hawks. And europhile to eurosceptic.

    That's how you win, in the British electoral system. You pilot an aircraft carrier which accommodates biplanes and Stealth Fighters, even if they are strategically conflicting.

    Cameron's BIG problem is that his effete Etonian leadership has alienated an entire school of right-wing thinking: he is Captain Bligh facing the Mutiny on the Bounty, and thus the Right has spit. He is, in other words, crap.
    I suspect the Tories would be having these problems whoever was leading them, to be honest.

    Cameron has made some mistakes with his party management, but the Conservatives have been a unleadable rabble since 1990.

    It sometimes feels as though as a party the Tories have been a lot less willing to accommodate a broad spectrum of conservative ideals in recent times (I wouldn't know about beforehand). Anyone not going along with the new mainstream is regarded as not even a proper Tory (I've even seem comment sections on ConHome refer to Cameron as a LD), so it seems natural any differences that do break out will be more bitter, alienating and prone to lead to defections. Labour seem to have a better time accepting any and all under a banner of anti-Toryism - given they have leaped around the left-right spectrum on certain issues, I don't think it is a banner of leftism.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2014
    I presume the "scandal" isn't really sending rude selfies, as SeanT points out, it isn't exactly uncommon, and old Mr Underpants did it. That would be mildly embarrassing.

    I presume it is that he has been playing away from home and sent some mucky photos, which will be leaked, adding to the "fun" part of the story for the Mirror. Maybe there is even more of an angle with whom he is being mucky, I guess we will find out shortly.

    I would think that Dave is currently doing a very good impression of the old Nokia thrower, after last week where he got lucky and managed to play it quite well politically, now he is getting shafted by his own party.
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    hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    I think this vid is the most appropriate for the Tories tonight. I can remember the Sun headline calling the Tories, the dead parrot party.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npjOSLCR2hE
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014

    Does anyone think the other rumoured defection might surface on Wednesday perhaps?

    Maybe while Cammo is making a major speech? I don't think so. People would see it for what it was, a cheap manipulative trick. UKIP are not that crass. Hopefully.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    So is it safe to assume that if UKIP had a Labour member ready to defect they would have announced it during the Labour conference, so there's no hope of that interesting little even occurring?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Does anyone think the other rumoured defection might surface on Wednesday perhaps?

    Yes, I do.
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    Speedy said:

    Still this scandal has nothing on the Stephen Milligan or Mark Oaten scandals.

    The Milligan scandal was the worst of them.
    But nothing beats Profumo.
    I always considered the Milligan 'scandal' to be tragic rather than scandalous. Whilst he clearly had some unusual sexual preferences it was all done in private and had it not been for his sad death I see no reason why anyone would ever have found out.

    I remember very much being saddened rather than scandalized.
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    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Still this scandal has nothing on the Stephen Milligan or Mark Oaten scandals.

    The Milligan scandal was the worst of them.
    But nothing beats Profumo.
    Both were Tories?

    There is nothing as amusing than conservatives (and republicans in the USA) in a sex scandal, because you would expect them not having any sex in the first place.
    Whereas all left wingers are obviously stunningly attractive...
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The jokes start early:

    Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 19m
    At the current rate of resignations this could be the worst-attended Tory conference in modern history!
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    Any other defector would likely be a Kent MP who voted no yesterday.

    Adam Holloway & Gordon Henderson fit the criteria
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    MikeK said:

    Does anyone think the other rumoured defection might surface on Wednesday perhaps?

    Maybe while Cammo is making a major speech? I don't think so. People would see it for what it was, a cheap manipulative trick. UKIP are not that crass. Hopefully.
    No not while he was making the speech. Holding a press conference at 9.30 that morning though (two hours before his speech). It may be transparent politicking but it is still a powerful message and gives the impression that the Tories were falling apart at conference.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited September 2014
    Funny that Tories on here have got to the point where they're calling democracy "a publicity stunt". I'm sure when UKIP get a defection that doesn't resign, the very same Tories will say they were cowardly.
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    Mr. T, Cameron should've handled things better. On the other hand, Carswell certainly appears to have jumped ship for reasons largely involving continuing the political career of Carswell. It seems to be ego-driven more than anything else.

    Not sure how you get to that conclusion. Carswell had a massive personal vote in Clacton and the Colonel Blimp character UKIP had put up against him had no chance of winning.
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    hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Rumour has it that UKIP have a press conference booked in Birmingham tomorrow. Another defection?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    There's got to be a risk of the Tories being pushed into third place in Rochester...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2014
    Re Defections.

    I always wonder what Bill Cash is still doing in the Cameron led Tory party. He used to be the go to guy if the media wanted a Tory with an axe to grind, especially anything vaguely related to Europe gets him really frothing.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited September 2014
    Pure accident...look Dougal there's a perfectly strangelove explanation


    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 14m
    Interesting choice of photograph there from Channel 4 news. pic.twitter.com/LQYMuxKw51
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    Am I right in thinking this guy really was a merchant banker?

    You couldn't make it up.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Cammo arriving in Brum live on Sky....
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550.

    Conservative: 6% (-11)

    Labour: 48% (+4)

    UKIP: 37% (+31)

    Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)

    Other Parties: 6% (-11)


    David Cameron: Mr Six Percent
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    dr_spyn said:

    Pure accident...look Dougal there's a perfectly strangelove explanation


    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 14m
    Interesting choice of photograph there from Channel 4 news. pic.twitter.com/LQYMuxKw51

    About as accidental as that BBC technical "fault" that gave Farage a Hilter moustache.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Looks shell-shocked...
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    MikeK said:

    Does anyone think the other rumoured defection might surface on Wednesday perhaps?

    Maybe while Cammo is making a major speech? I don't think so. People would see it for what it was, a cheap manipulative trick. UKIP are not that crass. Hopefully.
    If UKIP could, they would. The Farage Party has no scruples.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    Speedy said:

    Still this scandal has nothing on the Stephen Milligan or Mark Oaten scandals.

    The Milligan scandal was the worst of them.
    But nothing beats Profumo.
    I always considered the Milligan 'scandal' to be tragic rather than scandalous. Whilst he clearly had some unusual sexual preferences it was all done in private and had it not been for his sad death I see no reason why anyone would ever have found out.

    I remember very much being saddened rather than scandalized.
    Agreed. If you had to construct a headline around that story (if he wasn't an MP) it would be:
    Man Likes To Wank In Unusual Way, But Dies.

    Is that a front page story? No.

    It's sad, it's mildly comic - but it is mainly sad. Sex makes nearly all of us do nutty things. We need to get over that, and grow up as a nation. In this, if nothing else, the French do have something to teach us. Sex is sex. It has fuck all to do with politics, unless you want to be governed by weird monks with no hormones.
    Strauss-Kahn is French and sex did for him.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    hucks67 said:

    Rumour has it that UKIP have a press conference booked in Birmingham tomorrow. Another defection?

    Surely they will wait until the moment after Cameron's speech, just as an extra excuse:
    "Defecting Tory MP says he was disappointed by Cameron's speech"
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291

    dr_spyn said:

    Pure accident...look Dougal there's a perfectly strangelove explanation


    Harry Cole ‏@MrHarryCole 14m
    Interesting choice of photograph there from Channel 4 news. pic.twitter.com/LQYMuxKw51

    About as accidental as that BBC technical "fault" that gave Farage a Hilter moustache.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/unfortunate-bbc-moustache-for-nigel-farage-8829452.html

    Absolutely innocent explanation, happens all the time, screen breaking up into a perfect black square just under the nose.
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    hucks67 said:

    Rumour has it that UKIP have a press conference booked in Birmingham tomorrow. Another defection?

    Doubt it. Farage is supposed to be in Rochester with Reckless tomorrow
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    Speedy said:

    Still this scandal has nothing on the Stephen Milligan or Mark Oaten scandals.

    The Milligan scandal was the worst of them.
    But nothing beats Profumo.
    The real scandal of Profumo is the way the Establishment conspired to scapegoat and convict Stephen Ward -- the papers are still sealed.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    So...

    Man of Principle resigns to fight a by-election.

    Man of Peccadillos hangs around to pick-up a pay-check for the next 6 months...
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,912
    Terrible week for the Tories IMO
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    matt said:

    As an aside, didn't UKIP whine about their conference being "disrupted" by parliament sitting but planned to do this to the Conservatives. A touch hypocritical perhaps.

    Not really. Political parties playing political games with each other is surely OK, arranging affairs of state for party political gain would be quite another.

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    Oxbridge PPE, Colombia MBA, investment banker, lawyer,Mark Reckless is clearly a man of the people and has had nothing to do with the Establishment or the political class,neither of which,having joined Ukip,applies to him now.He is now Fidel Reckless,the man for the disgruntled working classes and Ukip are the peoples' army.More Tory than the Tories."Not me,guv.Spare a bit a change for an ex-Tory MP"
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    hucks67 said:

    Rumour has it that UKIP have a press conference booked in Birmingham tomorrow. Another defection?

    Doubt it. Farage is supposed to be in Rochester with Reckless tomorrow
    Birmingham is en route to Rochester from Doncaster.

    Anyway interesting times:

    Faisal Islam @faisalislam · 59m
    That's one principled resignation, one sacking, one defection, and one scandalised resignation in 24.5 hours in westminister
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    MikeK said:

    Does anyone think the other rumoured defection might surface on Wednesday perhaps?

    Maybe while Cammo is making a major speech? I don't think so. People would see it for what it was, a cheap manipulative trick. UKIP are not that crass. Hopefully.
    If UKIP could, they would. The Farage Party has no scruples.
    It wouldn't happen and its got nothing to do with scruples. There is no point trying to directly compete with the Prime Minister making a speech. Look at yesterday. All the media outlets were focussed on Cameron.

    If you are going to drop another bombshell it needs to be timed just in advance so that the news is ready to go out at the same time as the speech is being rerun
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    kle4 said:

    So is it safe to assume that if UKIP had a Labour member ready to defect they would have announced it during the Labour conference, so there's no hope of that interesting little even occurring?

    Probably but not necessarily. More recent defections (and successful by-elections) might convince them UKIP has a more interesting future for them.
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    New Thread
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Oxbridge PPE, Colombia MBA, investment banker, lawyer,Mark Reckless is clearly a man of the people and has had nothing to do with the Establishment or the political class,neither of which,having joined Ukip,applies to him now.He is now Fidel Reckless,the man for the disgruntled working classes and Ukip are the peoples' army.More Tory than the Tories."Not me,guv.Spare a bit a change for an ex-Tory MP"

    He'll fit in nicely with UKIP, bankrolled by Billionaire Sykes, and Stuart Wheeler (Old Etonian, Guards and a Jacobean Castle).
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/09/27/comres-poll-farage-as-popular-as-cameron/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    Conservatives 29% (-3)
    Labour 35% (+1)
    Lib Dem 7% (-1)
    UKIP 19% (+1)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 6% (+1)

    Bad news for Tory party continues.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,912
    Conservative MP for Braintree Brooks Newmark has resigned as minister for civil society over allegations to be published in a Sunday newspaper.

    Tory MP Mark Reckless has said he is leaving his party to join UKIP, announcing his decision on the eve of the Conservatives' conference.

    Opinion Polls show increase in Lab lead and show massive support for newly announced policies such as mansion tax.

    Only on PB and in DH head does that translate into a disaster for Ed.
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    Speedy said:

    Still this scandal has nothing on the Stephen Milligan or Mark Oaten scandals.

    The Milligan scandal was the worst of them.
    But nothing beats Profumo.
    I always considered the Milligan 'scandal' to be tragic rather than scandalous. Whilst he clearly had some unusual sexual preferences it was all done in private and had it not been for his sad death I see no reason why anyone would ever have found out.

    I remember very much being saddened rather than scandalized.
    Think you may find that Milligan's death was not as it appeared.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited September 2014
    Speedy said:

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/09/27/comres-poll-farage-as-popular-as-cameron/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    Conservatives 29% (-3)
    Labour 35% (+1)
    Lib Dem 7% (-1)
    UKIP 19% (+1)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 6% (+1)

    Bad news for Tory party continues.

    You could spin that as no upward bounce for Labour, despite all Ed's "populist" policies and wall to wall coverage. Normally with conference coverage you see spikes in whatever party is on the telly going up 3-4 points.

    I think in reality what we will see is in a month, assuming no earthquake (and a minor minister resigning for sending a nude selfie doesn't count as that these days*) back to the 3-4% lead for Labour, and it fairly likely that Labour will stagger over the line come the GE.

    * but who knows how many more Tories might jump ship to UKIP.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:

    Plato said:

    Well quite - another numpty. TBH, I'm glad they effed off to the Kippers - now they've no voice in the Tories.

    alex said:

    Reckless listed a whole load of things that the Conservatives couldn't do, even if they wanted to, because they don't have a Parliamentary majority. Said he "couldn't promise it as a Conservative, but could as UKIP".

    Wonder where he thinks these 330+ UKIP seats are going to come from...

    How can this make sense?

    Labour will win power (almost inevitably, now, in 2015) with a party including Dennis Skinner, Kate Hoey, Ed Balls, Len McCluskey, Owen Jones and Dan Hodges (kinda). From peaceniks to warmongers, from deficit deniers to mild deficit hawks. And europhile to eurosceptic.

    That's how you win, in the British electoral system. You pilot an aircraft carrier which accommodates biplanes and Stealth Fighters, even if they are strategically conflicting.

    Cameron's BIG problem is that his effete Etonian leadership has alienated an entire school of right-wing thinking: he is Captain Bligh facing the Mutiny on the Bounty, and thus the Right has spit. He is, in other words, crap.
    I suspect the Tories would be having these problems whoever was leading them, to be honest.

    Cameron has made some mistakes with his party management, but the Conservatives have been a unleadable rabble since 1990.

    You are correct. We have a bunch of thick tory backbenchers who are only interested in fruit loop selfish lunacy and Mr T after highlighjting the problem as ever stoops to blaming Cameron who is the head of a coalition.
    It was the same with Major Hague and IDS. Its a dumb selfish indulgence. My views are broadly right wing and I am simply disgusted at how inept the Conservative right are.
    Still, it does offer the prospect of the tory party seperating itself from the fruit loop tendency.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    You bet! :) It looks to be a fun night on PB, if Carlsberg did party Conferences, Cameron would need to sack them. :) And on that note, I am off out to enjoy a girlie evening with a dyed in the wool Green supporter, have fun tonight.
    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    What is it with UKIPpers and their automatic knee jerk reaction fall back on the claim that anyone who doesn't agree with their political world view must therefore lack 'principles'. If I had collected a pound in a tin for every time that insult has been lobbed at a Conservative supporting poster here or on ConHom in the last decade, I could have made a nice donation to the Conservative party this weekend.

    fitalass said:

    I didn't think that Carsewell was that big a loss to the Conservative Party, and certainly not any more than Reckless was today. Can't say that I am surprised at the news of the Reckless defection today either, I made it a point to check which Tory MP's didn't vote with the Government yesterday. But hey ho, another unnecessary by-election just months before the next GE, anyone would think the taxpayer isn't going to get fed up footing the bill for these UKIP publicity stunts.

    Twitter
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 17 mins
    Chris Buckwell, secretary of Rochester Conservatives, tells #C4News they got assurances from Reckless two weeks ago he wouldn't defect

    Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 54 mins
    Mark Reckless decided he was defecting two weeks ago http://specc.ie/1yuVD3O

    Krishnan Guru-Murthy ‏@krishgm 24 hrs
    Hi @MarkReckless - can you rule out defecting to UKIP? Your language on Iraq seems quite Ukippy

    Mark Reckless MP ‏@MarkReckless 24h
    @krishgm Indeed. Other Con MPs voted against and not aware Ukip has position

    Millsy said:

    The loss of Carswell was a big blow to the Tories but Reckless very much less so, particularly as they have a big chance of actually defeating Reckless at the by-election.

    Your lack of principles is shameful but not surprising.
    Well we all know that all Tories are really UKIP supporters at heart, therefore if you haven't yet defected you lack principles. Well known.
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    BTW rode a preserved Tube train (Cravens 1960 Stock with 1938 Stock trailer) at the Epping Ongar Railway today, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the final London Underground service between Epping and Ongar. Last day is tomorrow for those interested :)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Bloody Brilliant!

    Mr. Corporeal, the music and cartoons were better. Videogame graphics less so. (That said, my Playstation copy of Worms Armageddon has aged surprisingly well).

    Sorry Mr, D. the Golden age of cartoons was the 1940s as this Tom and Jerry so adequately demonstrates:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKZgi06fVsk
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Re Defections.

    I always wonder what Bill Cash is still doing in the Cameron led Tory party. He used to be the go to guy if the media wanted a Tory with an axe to grind, especially anything vaguely related to Europe gets him really frothing.

    Bill Cash gave a very well reasoned interview on TV as to why Carswell should not have quit. People like Carswell and Reckless want instant gratification. They will end up being impotent.

This discussion has been closed.