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LAB analysis suggests a double-digit bounce for PM Truss – politicalbetting.com
LAB analysis suggests a double-digit bounce for PM Truss – politicalbetting.com
An internal Labour analysis being reported by the Guardian is suggesting what I have been predicting, and betting on for several weeks, Truss will get a significant new PM bounce in the polls. The report by Pippa Crerar notes:
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ETA When did she jump ship to the Guardian? I'm surprised it could outbid the Mirror.
The fact this 'leaked' means its expectations management. Therefore labour i suspect think the bounce will be much smaller or none at all so they can say 'she's slready holed below the waterline'
1.08 Liz Truss 93%
13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%
Next Conservative leader
1.07 Liz Truss 93%
13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%
I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.
Year of next UK GE:
2022 16/1
2023 5/1
2024 or later 2/7
2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?
The current average is L41 C31, so it needs a five point bounce for proper crossover, though the odd Conservative lead would happen on a smaller bounce. If Truss can't manage that, she's stuffed.
Meanwhile, I don't entirely trust the recent widening of the gap- the line takes a while to settle down. But it would be amusing if the nature and length of the campaign means that the Truss bounce dissipates before she even takes office.
(The GE is in three weeks.)
https://www.tv4.se/artikel/bGDORHwMftpgyHYgwdvgN/vaeskfynd-innehoell-skarpladdad-bomb
Wasn't she also interviewed for the BBC Political Editor job? That always seemed like a non-starter.
20%
19%
18%
19%
19%
Result last time: 25.1%
In combination with SCon to SLD swingback, the Ross team is in for a spanking if FM Truss goes for a snap GE.
I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
If she flips to the LD/Lab policy then she may get enough of a bounce fro some Tory leads.
But the October energy price cap is announced this Friday, so there's not much time.
Heck we still get discussions going on about Roman conflicts.
Firstly - Labour would say that wouldn’t they “temporary Tory poll leads from new leader bounce, we told you that would happen, nothing to explain here BJO.” Exactly the sort of preemptive chaff we all would push out there?
Secondly, it’s an old Guardian story now, since this came out last week the polls have moved. The “swing back built in” Opinium was incredible, it’s nearly back to double digit lead before swing back built in. Something is suddenly going on that makes a new leader bounce this time unlikely to close the gap. The voters have listened to the Tory’s and made their minds up on next general election now, giving Boris replacement the poll plunge not the bounce? The week the polls put the writing up on the wall? How about No Tory poll lead till 2025 as an interesting betting tip?
Yes Tory lead soon based on history. Yes but no because history never had Bubble from AbFab, going to the palace to touch hands.
To paraphrase Alex Ferguson - this last decade of British politics, bloody hell.
If she does not call a snap election then I think she and the current "Conservatives" are doomed. On the plus side, they can spend electoral oblivion purging all the Kippers and returning to sane politics.
What the heck were the Tories doing in Belfast anyway? They have no mandate in N Ireland, they never stand for election there.
Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.
And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..
Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
Truss has the big advantage that she doesn’t give a shit about Scotland.
Surely for Brexit to be done, all those remainers in the Blue Wall will have to vote Tory again, as key measurements of it being fully done and dusted?
Or send the issue to a cheaper prep school.
Clearly SCon are struggling but i dont see any SLD revival, there was no signal in the locals for them coming back in the borders or aberdeenshire where Tories have their relative strength? Nor particularly in former strong areas like Argyll?
"For the final time. It's not an unwritten constitution. It's uncodified. It does not "evolve", it is changed by consent, and, even if it did, that does not mean making shit up as you go along. The Cabinet Manual beats a BBC report. Just admit it when you're wrong. It's not hard for most of us."
It's a shame you can't admit you're wrong. The Cabinet Manual absolutely recognises the principle of a caretaker government, of which we presently have one, furthermore it absolutely and explicitly recognises the principle that conventions play in our constitution. Conventions can and do evolve over time. The Cabinet Manual even explicitly recognises conventions in its own full title.
Whether the role of a caretaker Prime Minister existed in 1909 or 1783 or any other year is moot, the principle that it exists has long been recognised as a convention and even if it didn't formerly exist it has been formally recognised by the Cabinet in 2022 when they declared that Boris Johnson was only staying on as a caretaker Prime Minister. Their decision being the next logical step in the evolution of the role that had already been recognised.
It significantly exceeds The Oaf’s six or seven seconds.
The Ukranian attacks on Crimea last week, where many middle-class Russians were on holiday, is waking the average Russian up to what’s actually been going on for the past six months.
There was a call yesterday between Johnson, Biden, Macron and Sholz, who noted Russian escalations in fighting around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. I really, really hope that Putin - or at least someone in the inner circle at the Kremlin - has thought through what the Western reaction would be to the war going nuclear.
The Conservatives won't be able to win by going down the Republican rabbithole; that only works with massive gerrymandering, so we're safe for now. But they will give it a damn good try (unless she blows up, I'd have thought Badenoch is a shoe-in to be LotO 2024-9 before going down to a hefty defeat.)
A bit like mammals 70 million years ago, the next-but-one Conservative PM is scuttling around largely unnoticed.
The UK cheats by counting pension payments (including mine) toward defence spending.
In the Woodward books, the veracity of which have never been challenged, Trump comes across as absolutely obsessed with eliminating US defence commitements abroad. He was only prevented from withdrawing 30,000 troops from South Korea by Gary Cohn taking the paperwork off his desk before he could sign it.
In his next term when he goes full "Dark MAGA" there are going to be far fewer constraints on his caprice.
You post a lot of balanced sense Stew. How to explain the graffs sudden change in directory? Wooly did straight away. Labour came up with a Cap Freeze - the voters loved it, even Tory ones by huge margin - Team Truss said no, tax cuts instead.
As Times report today the Blukip Tory Party would vote Boris as their leader rather than one of this fresh leadership elections candidates, this the truth proving this blukip electorate could not make a decision based on any polling or political sense or sanity
But it’s not just “sod the poor 2/3rds of the country, we want tax cuts”, because there are far too many reason why replacing Boris with Truss is most damaging move for the Tory party itself - what first leaps out, Truss and Kwarteng have no communication skills whatsoever. They are wooden, unlikable, a bit weird. Even if they chose not to anger the electorate and instead adopt the electorates preferred “cap freeze”, they still wouldn’t get a bounce, as they can’t sell policies, popular or unpopular. They are the sort of people who would say Good Morning to you and it would grate, wind you up. The Tory members are daft to ignore it will be prime minister and chancellor without persuasion skills, without the ability to gain trust and followers, and more importantly deflect blame for things. Kwarteng has already acknowledged public spending cuts would be required if tax cuts were implemented, but refuse to say what cuts, there you go, voters won’t stand that game for very long, as the crashing polls show. And you know how voters will quickly tire of their Prime Ministers weekly gaffs, not just hate her policies.
So PM Truss, how could this happen? If Raab hadn’t buggered up Afghan crisis, Truss wouldn’t have been overpromoted to Foreign Secretary. It’s pure Chancey Gardner all this. Or that moment in I, Claudius when the Imperial Guard realise no emperor no imperial guard with extra benefits, so they pull Claudius out from under the table and put him on the throne, so the Brexit Guard can carry on lording it.
Sorry, did I mention Brexit?
When May called an early election what was it for? Essentially she asked the electorate for a blank cheque. The purpose was for her benefit, not the electorates.
The same would be true of an early election now, unless Truss had tried to implement a policy and been blocked by Parliament from doing so. The voters would see that the election was for her benefit, not theirs, and vote accordingly.
Brexit, on the other hand......
3.95 on there right now.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Aberdeenshire_Council_election
Can’t find the figures for D&G or Borders at short notice.
But please note that:
1. SLD almost always outperform their mid-term VI figures.
2. The SLDs have an extraordinarily uneven vote distribution, which all pollsters struggle with
3. A UK GE heavily focussed on the Brexit fiasco will drive many folk back to the SLDs
D and G they got 3.3% in the locals (up a touch but negligible support)
Borders 9.6% again up a little
At the moment, about as likely as his first jail term.
All of which is quickly going to be irrelevant, as the government will be getting hammered in the polls over energy bills, and won’t want an election until autumn 2024 once the economy is recovering.
She has a majority. She doesn't need a personal mandate. There's a lot that needs doing - why spend six weeks on an election campaign? Get on with it, or get out of the way.
As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.
The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.
Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.
IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
2034 yes.
2024 no way.
Don't blame you, though:
'The Northern Ireland Conservatives is a section of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party that operates in Northern Ireland. The party won 0.03% of the vote in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election and 0.7% of the vote in the 2019 United Kingdom General election in Northern Ireland.'
These are worse GE figures than the MRLP where it stands, though the latter is too sensible to try to stand in NI.
Sir Keir Starmer says energy bills will 'go through the roof unless action is taken', as Labour call for a price freeze paid for by a windfall tax on oil and gas companies.
https://trib.al/Rx0iR33
📺 Sky 501 https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1561655797448380424/video/1
Brexit is done"The luxury sector, consumer electronics and fashion have all had issues with Brexit."
Fascinating research - especially on Asian markets pivoting towards the EU for luxury goods. Ironically, the exact opposite effect to what Brexit promised. ~AA
https://internetretailing.net/growth-2000/editorial-just-what-is-the-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-retailers/
Lab SNP tacticals, yep, much more of a factor in the rest
Red Tories.
Blue Tories.
Same stench.
https://twitter.com/financialtimes/status/1561649524996804609?s=21&t=Cq5yQQSPcWZ7RcU4_z4fxw
Now I've had a standard solution for years regarding this because we need a means of separating highly skilled freelancers from general abuse of low paid workers. And the solution really isn't that difficult (although it's a political mare) - where the day rate is over £x an hour (where £x is approximately £40-50 an hour) the worker can be self employed / work through a limited company outside IR35. Below that it should be PAYE..... I suggested it as part of the expenses consultation back in 2015 when this end game became obvious but you can see why it's politically an issue...
CPI 18.6%
RPI 21%
If they weren’t such a bunch of unmitigated shits, one would almost feel sorry for Tories.
Sunak and Brown have done the opposite though, making the problem worse.
A pity Labour and the LDs don't stand but just give their sister parties the SDLP and Alliance a free run in the province (although the Conservatives did stand on a joint ticket with their sister party the UUP in 2010 getting 15% of the vote)
I know you're stupid, but I didn't think you were that stupid.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/aug/22/cineworld-us-bankruptcy-felixstowe-strike-gas-prices-recession-stock-markets-business-live
I said that the government wouldn’t be wanting an election until the economy was recovering, so they will most likely not call it until autumn 2024.
Happy to be corrected. I’m sure some smart arse will refer to the corn laws or somesuch.