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LAB analysis suggests a double-digit bounce for PM Truss – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Another big swing to Lab with Red&Wilt here. The last three polls released, with the lead and change on the pollster's previous (where that previous was within a month), are:

    Red&Wilt: Lab+12 (up 5)
    Opinium: Lab+8 (up 5)
    YouGov: Lab+15 (up 6)

    Best to keep expectations in check but a Labour majority is no longer unthinkable.
    Wise words
    Thanks. But not wise betting. I'm short of it at double today's price. Did that back in ye olde political world of a year ago when I was of the view Johnson would keep getting away with things and his Brexit voting coalition was too solid for Labour to jump from where they are to an outright majority. It's the worst long range position in my (otherwise not too shabby) portfolio.
    I am not able to advise on betting but on the wider point it is sensible to keep your feet on the ground
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    The move to Lab continues

    Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 August):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    https://t.co/Pt3WwEIMHQ https://t.co/jDq52ETFns

    The prevailing wisdom used to be that August opinion polls were prone to lower Conservative votes due to more Conservatives taking foreign holidays. Have the polling companies properly corrected for that in more recent times?
    Do the retired take more overseas holidays during school holidays still? If so why? It is lovely weather back home, too hot in the countries they tend to visit and three times the price to go away!
    Since the children left the family home 30 years ago we always went on holiday out of the school holidays, apart from one year when I rented a Tuscany villa for all 10 of us in July
    Any overseas holidays I take in the future will be in February, as long as I can find a place with decent wifi.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    Rejoice.

    Sounds like it's time for a rerun of Noah's Castle on ITV.
  • FossFoss Posts: 565
    The Belgian PM is apparently talking about a difficult five to ten winters.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 22

    Keir Starmer Approval Rating (21 August):

    Disapprove: 30% (-3)
    Approve: 29% (–)
    Net: -1% (+3)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    Just the worst Labour leader in history

    Not inspiring either though is it? Hes not going to match Blair's level of support on those figures and Blair is the only leader who delivered the vote % Labour would likely need in 2024 for a majority on the new boundaries since 1970. Thats the scale of the challenge
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    ydoethur said:

    The move to Lab continues

    Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 August):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    https://t.co/Pt3WwEIMHQ https://t.co/jDq52ETFns

    The prevailing wisdom used to be that August opinion polls were prone to lower Conservative votes due to more Conservatives taking foreign holidays. Have the polling companies properly corrected for that in more recent times?
    Do the retired take more overseas holidays during school holidays still? If so why? It is lovely weather back home, too hot in the countries they tend to visit and three times the price to go away!
    Since the children left the family home 30 years ago we always went on holiday out of the school holidays, apart from one year when I rented a Tuscany villa for all 10 of us in July
    Any overseas holidays I take in the future will be in February, as long as I can find a place with decent wifi.
    New Zealand and Australia are good at that time of year
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    Foss said:

    The Belgian PM is apparently talking about a difficult five to ten winters.

    Sounds like one of my "ballpark estimates" at work.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,096
    edited August 22

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 August):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-august-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561745018997526529/photo/1

    Starmer now leads Truss as preferred PM even with RedfieldWilton 37% to 35%

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561752640022781952?s=20&t=Gw_Ss7IWTPzePyLSqkrkNA
    My view was that ditching Johnson - whilst being the right thing to do - would actually *decrease* the chances of a Conservative win at the next election. I think I was probably correct.
    Chance of Tory majority did not change much, but volatility did. Bozo could have had another big majority or been completely disastrous for the Tories if left unchallenged. If Truss gets a majority it will be be sub 40.
    The way I'm seeing it is GE19 was BBC - Brexit Boris Corbyn - so take out all 3, add in stagflation and most people getting poorer, and the case for another Tory government (esp after 14 years in power) looks extremely hard to make. I give Truss little chance. I'll be very and unpleasantly surprised if she can turn it around and win another term.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,788
    ydoethur said:

    Rejoice.

    Sounds like it's time for a rerun of Noah's Castle on ITV.
    I had a lot of time for the Witty English Teacher in Noah's Castle. He started by deconstructing government propoganda in lessons, then gave up when it spilled over into (boring) flat out lying.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    edited August 22
    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

    I have already responded to your reference to Jim Miller. That refers to 1945 plus where you could have airborne deterents. That doesn't apply now. Any aircraft is shot down. It has to be submarine delivered which has the other disadvantage which is size of the warhead. Keep up.

    No I didn't say there was an IQ difference between races. How do you misinterpret this stuff. I said I didn't know. Generally I think it is accepted there is little difference between most races and most differences is down to cultural and educational differences. What is beyond dispute is your assertion that Africans have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, which is clearly complete nonsense. All because you can't accept a web site you linked to is rubbish.
    You really are the most tedious bore on here sometimes. Continuing the same topic thread after thread and than going back to it hours later.

    If you do not want to be destroyed by a Putin nuclear missile without response, your skin ripped off or die of radiation poisoning as we have no response that is up to you. We already have submarines with nuclear warheads which could be adapted as needed, not that there is any guarantee our aircraft would be shit down. Either way it would have to be done as quickly as possible if the US withdrew from NATO and Trident became redundant and would dominate the government's priorities.

    If you think there is no significant difference between Chinese and Roma or six saharan African nations despite all evidence to the contrary that is up to you. However on your own admission even you effectively argue Chinese culture is educationally superior to all other races and nations by definition
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    Keir Starmer Approval Rating (21 August):

    Disapprove: 30% (-3)
    Approve: 29% (–)
    Net: -1% (+3)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    Just the worst Labour leader in history

    Not inspiring either though is it? Hes not going to match Blair's level of support on those figures and Blair is the only leader who delivered the vote % Labour would likely need in 2024 for a majority on the new boundaries since 1970. Thats the scale of the challenge
    Strangely Johnson’s approval rate in today poll is also 29%
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,575

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    MISTY said:

    FF43 said:

    MISTY said:

    FF43 said:

    MISTY said:

    Resolution Foundation
    @resfoundation
    ·
    37m
    In summary? There is no escaping the cost-of-living crisis. It will take many months, and much more living standards pain, before inflation starts to ease. The number one priority for the next PM is to offer significant support to help families through a brutal winter and beyond.

    https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1561673277604597760


    The government's first priority should be cheap, plentiful energy and I wouldn't be surprised if that is what Liz targets.

    No doubt Truss will "target" it, although it doesn't seem to be a priority. But platitudes from her about supply-side won't get us cheap and plentiful energy. She would be a lot more useful if she helped people deal with energy being not at all cheap or plentiful.

    If the default position of the main parties is that cheap plentiful energy is essentially impossible from now until doomsday, I would suggest they will not be main parties for that long.

    I agree there is a medium to long term need for cheap non-carbon energy, which is wind and solar - that for bizarre reasons Truss and parts of the Conservative Party are adamantly opposed to. Maybe also tidal

    In the meantime we have to learn how to get off Russian fossil fuels.
    Well if you think that message is going to stand through this winter, best of British.

    Truss is apparently looking at unwinding the mechanism whereby rising electricity prices must lift all boats, netting green producers big profits.

    Let the green producers supply cheaply, if they can.
    As I say there is a medium to long term need for cheap green energy, so no dispute there.

    The immediate need is for energy. At any price.
    Ultimately, the amount of gas available globally that is available to import has dropped about 15%. Part of this is because Russia has dramatically reduced flows to Europe, part is because most countries aren't buying Russian LNG. And part is because global LNG capacity has effectively dropped because distances have increased (and therefore so have transit times).

    The world needs to reduce their usage of imported gas by 15%.

    We in the West can afford to pay up (somewhat). But what of Pakistan or Turkey? Those countries were poor before.

    Right now, the reduction in gas usage is falling predominantly on the very poorest countries. One of the reasons why Pakistan is really struggling is because we - and Germany and Spain etc. - are outbidding it for LNG cargoes.
    The only positive in all this is Putin has fecked his country for a generation. No one will trust their energy or commodities from RU for a very long time after this. As this is all they have they are screwed.
    There are a few people on here who thought Russia are 'winning' this war. My question to them was, and is (if they still hold that view): "What is your definition of winning?"

    The longer this goes on, the harder it is for me to see any way realistic way Russia comes out of this stronger in the next decade than if they had not launched this evil war. They are demeaning themselves in every way, including their beloved stronk military.
    I mostly agree, and yet... They haven't lost yet. If Western support for Ukraine falters then Russia will prevail and the West would have been defeated.

    I'm not sure the West has a realistic sense of how much effort it will take to last the course longer than the Russians. Stocks of Western equipment and ammunition are being depleted at a rate faster than they are being manufactured. What happens when the cupboard is bare, if the Russians are still fighting at that point?
    There *is* a path to Russia gaining all of Ukraine, although IMV it is weak and diminishes every day. And what you are saying about western weaponry is also true about Russian: they are getting through their kit at a vast rate. They've already lost more people than during ten years in Afghanistan; and more of certain types of equipment as well. When they were the much-larger USSR, with a more capable industrial-military base.

    But the question remains: how does Russia come out of this stronkier than they were when they entered? Even if they win all of Ukraine (and that's unlikely) then they'll be much weaker than they were back in January.

    It'll be a pyrrhic victory at best.
    They would not only have to win all of Ukraine but hold it against the Ukranian resistance
    Spot on. And it's worth dwelling on this for a second.

    Russia has been successful at holding Chechnya, albeit at huge cost.

    Chechnya has a population of 1.4 million.

    Ukraine a population of 44 million.

    Imagine if Northern Ireland had been 10x bigger and had been 80% Catholic, rather than 40% Catholic? Rough maths suggest it would be 20x harder for the UK government to hold it.

    That is the rough scale of the difficulty for Russia in holding all of Ukraine.
    If Ukraine falls to Russia its population will not be 44 million. Millions more refugees will join those who have already fled, and the lack of infrastructure (particularly heating), work, and food (as the Russians export grain) will lead to a massive population decline. Many Ukrainians will be forced to accept resettlement across Russia in order to survive.

    I don't think for a moment that an occupation would be easy for Russia, but Ukrainians would find sustaining a resistance incredibly difficult. There's a reason we haven't seen any videos of street protests from Kherson for ages
    Because they have decided it is far more productive to go for acts of sabotage and assassination instead. You didn't see street protests in occupied Europe much after the first few days of German occupation either. People quickly realised that if they wanted to get rid of the German's then street protest wouldn't cut it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Foss said:

    The Belgian PM is apparently talking about a difficult five to ten winters.

    Pinprick. Flesh wound.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    MISTY said:

    FF43 said:

    MISTY said:

    FF43 said:

    MISTY said:

    Resolution Foundation
    @resfoundation
    ·
    37m
    In summary? There is no escaping the cost-of-living crisis. It will take many months, and much more living standards pain, before inflation starts to ease. The number one priority for the next PM is to offer significant support to help families through a brutal winter and beyond.

    https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1561673277604597760


    The government's first priority should be cheap, plentiful energy and I wouldn't be surprised if that is what Liz targets.

    No doubt Truss will "target" it, although it doesn't seem to be a priority. But platitudes from her about supply-side won't get us cheap and plentiful energy. She would be a lot more useful if she helped people deal with energy being not at all cheap or plentiful.

    If the default position of the main parties is that cheap plentiful energy is essentially impossible from now until doomsday, I would suggest they will not be main parties for that long.

    I agree there is a medium to long term need for cheap non-carbon energy, which is wind and solar - that for bizarre reasons Truss and parts of the Conservative Party are adamantly opposed to. Maybe also tidal

    In the meantime we have to learn how to get off Russian fossil fuels.
    Well if you think that message is going to stand through this winter, best of British.

    Truss is apparently looking at unwinding the mechanism whereby rising electricity prices must lift all boats, netting green producers big profits.

    Let the green producers supply cheaply, if they can.
    As I say there is a medium to long term need for cheap green energy, so no dispute there.

    The immediate need is for energy. At any price.
    Ultimately, the amount of gas available globally that is available to import has dropped about 15%. Part of this is because Russia has dramatically reduced flows to Europe, part is because most countries aren't buying Russian LNG. And part is because global LNG capacity has effectively dropped because distances have increased (and therefore so have transit times).

    The world needs to reduce their usage of imported gas by 15%.

    We in the West can afford to pay up (somewhat). But what of Pakistan or Turkey? Those countries were poor before.

    Right now, the reduction in gas usage is falling predominantly on the very poorest countries. One of the reasons why Pakistan is really struggling is because we - and Germany and Spain etc. - are outbidding it for LNG cargoes.
    The only positive in all this is Putin has fecked his country for a generation. No one will trust their energy or commodities from RU for a very long time after this. As this is all they have they are screwed.
    There are a few people on here who thought Russia are 'winning' this war. My question to them was, and is (if they still hold that view): "What is your definition of winning?"

    The longer this goes on, the harder it is for me to see any way realistic way Russia comes out of this stronger in the next decade than if they had not launched this evil war. They are demeaning themselves in every way, including their beloved stronk military.
    I mostly agree, and yet... They haven't lost yet. If Western support for Ukraine falters then Russia will prevail and the West would have been defeated.

    I'm not sure the West has a realistic sense of how much effort it will take to last the course longer than the Russians. Stocks of Western equipment and ammunition are being depleted at a rate faster than they are being manufactured. What happens when the cupboard is bare, if the Russians are still fighting at that point?
    The West has much greater ability to ramp up production than does Russia. Firstly, we're not struggling with sanctions. Secondly, we've got 20-30x the economic base to exploit.
    Sure, but we have to actually do so. Six months in and there's not much sign of it. The vast majority of equipment and ammunition being supplied is still from prior stocks.
    How do you know?

    Saab - makers of the NLAWs - saw orders grow 76% in the first half of 2022. Their presentation (https://www.saab.com/contentassets/43606ca7b2644e189c84d4b6517ae26c/saab_presentation_q2.pdf) says:

    "Orders growth driven by ground conflict"

    Now, they don't specifically mention Ukraine... but I think that's as close as you're going to get.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,096
    edited August 22
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    The move to Lab continues

    Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 August):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    https://t.co/Pt3WwEIMHQ https://t.co/jDq52ETFns

    I miss the days of people Baxtering polls.
    Hyufd used to do that every time. Seems to have stopped for some reason.
    Well it is irrelevant if Labour is heading for a clear majority as on the main poll.

    Though put in the Truss and Starmer preferred PM numbers and you get Con 283, Lab 279, LD 12. Which would be the closest general election since February 1974

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=35&LAB=37&LIB=12&Reform=3&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=24&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=46.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
    It would still be interesting to see the SIZE of the LABOUR MAJORITY.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    @HYUFD another straight answer will do.

    Do you think that the average African has an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, or a serverly disabled adult or do you accept that stat was wrong?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    Does 19% inflation mean that the triple lock will follow suit in 2023?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    kjh said:

    @HYUFD another straight answer will do.

    Do you think that the average African has an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, or a serverly disabled adult or do you accept that stat was wrong?

    Many share your frustration with interacting with @HYUFD
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,788
    Foss said:

    The Belgian PM is apparently talking about a difficult five to ten winters.

    Macron is also doing the "preparing people for tough times" thing;

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/08/20/french-president-emmanuel-macron-doubles-down-on-pessimism_5994164_5.html

    The UK's problem is twofold here. Neither Johnson or Truss are really the people to do the "toil towards a distant light" thing. And as of today, neither of them is really around to do it anyway.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    edited August 22

    Does 19% inflation mean that the triple lock will follow suit in 2023?

    Of course. Paid for by increasing interest rates on student loans, and using millenials as a new biofuel.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    Bizarrely, @Dynamo made some good points about unionism upthread.

    The outgoing administration - which even had Gove loosely involved in the subject (but which Johnson stupidly took formal responsibility for) - seemed to lack much in the way of ideas.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    Foss said:

    The Belgian PM is apparently talking about a difficult five to ten winters.

    Macron is also doing the "preparing people for tough times" thing;

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/08/20/french-president-emmanuel-macron-doubles-down-on-pessimism_5994164_5.html

    The UK's problem is twofold here. Neither Johnson or Truss are really the people to do the "toil towards a distant light" thing. And as of today, neither of them is really around to do it anyway.
    A genuine question

    Just who is, not just here but across Europe and beyond
  • HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    You okay matey? A lot of people trying to wind you up today
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,597

    Wrote a note on the way here.

    Simply said, bugger.

    Nein, nein, nein!

    Darling said:

    "Made a note in my diary on the way here. Simply says: 'Bugger'."
  • Bizarrely, @Dynamo made some good points about unionism upthread.

    The outgoing administration - which even had Gove loosely involved in the subject (but which Johnson stupidly took formal responsibility for) - seemed to lack much in the way of ideas.

    Johnson doesn't have ideas because he doesn't have principles or ideology.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

    I have already responded to your reference to Jim Miller. That refers to 1945 plus where you could have airborne deterents. That doesn't apply now. Any aircraft is shot down. It has to be submarine delivered which has the other disadvantage which is size of the warhead. Keep up.

    No I didn't say there was an IQ difference between races. How do you misinterpret this stuff. I said I didn't know. Generally I think it is accepted there is little difference between most races and most differences is down to cultural and educational differences. What is beyond dispute is your assertion that Africans have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, which is clearly complete nonsense. All because you can't accept a web site you linked to is rubbish.
    You really are the most tedious bore on here sometimes. Continuing the same topic thread after thread and than going back to it hours later.

    If you do not want to be destroyed by a Putin nuclear missile without response, your skin ripped off or die of radiation poisoning as we have no response that is up to you. We already have submarines with nuclear warheads which could be adapted as needed, not that there is any guarantee our aircraft would be shit down. Either way it would have to be done as quickly as possible if the US withdrew from NATO and Trident became redundant and would dominate the government's priorities.

    If you think there is no significant difference between Chinese and Roma or six saharan African nations despite all evidence to the contrary that is up to you. However on your own admission even you effectively argue Chinese culture is educationally superior to all other races and nations by definition
    Utter gibberish. I have been away at a BBQ..
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    edited August 22

    Foss said:

    The Belgian PM is apparently talking about a difficult five to ten winters.

    Macron is also doing the "preparing people for tough times" thing;

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/08/20/french-president-emmanuel-macron-doubles-down-on-pessimism_5994164_5.html

    The UK's problem is twofold here. Neither Johnson or Truss are really the people to do the "toil towards a distant light" thing. And as of today, neither of them is really around to do it anyway.
    Boris was scoffing away the very idea of inflation last year (while economists started to sweat).

    He really was the pits. I can’t think of a man worse-suited for the gig.

    His fucking-off-on-holiday routine was one last joke at the country’s expense. That stubborn rump who still support him should probably be stripped of the vote.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,537
    Kwasi - lately holder of the Energy portfolio - will of course make a wonderful Chancellor.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 22

    Keir Starmer Approval Rating (21 August):

    Disapprove: 30% (-3)
    Approve: 29% (–)
    Net: -1% (+3)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    Just the worst Labour leader in history

    Not inspiring either though is it? Hes not going to match Blair's level of support on those figures and Blair is the only leader who delivered the vote % Labour would likely need in 2024 for a majority on the new boundaries since 1970. Thats the scale of the challenge
    Strangely Johnson’s approval rate in today poll is also 29%
    Almost as if the poll lead is voter strike/protest/midterm related rather than raging popularity of a Labour political genius.
    IF Truss got a significant bounce and familiarity took her well ahead on best PM then it all becomes very Miliband 2013. Thats what to watch for in terms of betting on 2024 outcomes.
    I suspect the bounce may be flaccid however and Labour win by 4 or 5% and form a minority government
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 August):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-august-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561745018997526529/photo/1

    Starmer now leads Truss as preferred PM even with RedfieldWilton 37% to 35%

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561752640022781952?s=20&t=Gw_Ss7IWTPzePyLSqkrkNA
    My view was that ditching Johnson - whilst being the right thing to do - would actually *decrease* the chances of a Conservative win at the next election. I think I was probably correct.
    Chance of Tory majority did not change much, but volatility did. Bozo could have had another big majority or been completely disastrous for the Tories if left unchallenged. If Truss gets a majority it will be be sub 40.
    The way I'm seeing it is GE19 was BBC - Brexit Boris Corbyn - so take out all 3, add in stagflation and most people getting poorer, and the case for another Tory government (esp after 14 years in power) looks extremely hard to make. I give Truss little chance. I'll be very and unpleasantly surprised if she can turn it around and win another term.
    Cameron 1st govt was coalition rather than tory.
    Cameron 2nd and May were perhaps tory.
    Boris was far more bluekip than tory.
    Truss may ditch bluekip for Thatcher (misinterpreted) on steroids.

    We have not had 12 years of Tory governments, this is one of the reasons they are longer lasting in power, they regularly run against themselves.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    Foss said:

    The Belgian PM is apparently talking about a difficult five to ten winters.

    Macron is also doing the "preparing people for tough times" thing;

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/08/20/french-president-emmanuel-macron-doubles-down-on-pessimism_5994164_5.html

    The UK's problem is twofold here. Neither Johnson or Truss are really the people to do the "toil towards a distant light" thing. And as of today, neither of them is really around to do it anyway.
    Boris was scoffing away the very idea of inflation last year (while economists started to sweat).

    He really was the pits. I can’t think of a man worse-suited for the gig.
    Jacob Rees-Mogg and Richard Burgon both spring to mind with minimal effort.

    And that's before we talk about the women - Dorries, Braverman, Sultana, Pidcock, Moran...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    Does 19% inflation mean that the triple lock will follow suit in 2023?

    It depends on what the CPI is next month. It is the September rate of CPI which (if the highest of the three considerations) is used to calculate the pension increase starting the following April.

    The triple lock has to go.
    I have been consistent is saying so and supported Sunak cancelling it this year, and it should have been permanent

    And my wife and I do benefit from it
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,575

    Does 19% inflation mean that the triple lock will follow suit in 2023?

    It depends on what the CPI is next month. It is the September rate of CPI which (if the highest of the three considerations) is used to calculate the pension increase starting the following April.

    The triple lock has to go.
    I have been consistent is saying so and supported Sunak cancelling it this year, and it should have been permanent

    And my wife and I do benefit from it
    Yep, what gets me is how many reasonable people who are either receiving it or close to receiving it realise how wrong it is. And yet the Government ploughs on with it like it is free money.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,721
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    I see we’re still arguing about the UK nuclear deterrent if the US leaves NATO.

    We’ll still have a French nuclear deterrent, so unless France also quits NATO we’re as fine as we would be with British nukes. As are the various other non nuclear NATO members.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    You obviously don't as you give every excuse under the sun why it can't be done in the time needed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

    I have already responded to your reference to Jim Miller. That refers to 1945 plus where you could have airborne deterents. That doesn't apply now. Any aircraft is shot down. It has to be submarine delivered which has the other disadvantage which is size of the warhead. Keep up.

    No I didn't say there was an IQ difference between races. How do you misinterpret this stuff. I said I didn't know. Generally I think it is accepted there is little difference between most races and most differences is down to cultural and educational differences. What is beyond dispute is your assertion that Africans have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, which is clearly complete nonsense. All because you can't accept a web site you linked to is rubbish.
    You really are the most tedious bore on here sometimes. Continuing the same topic thread after thread and than going back to it hours later.

    If you do not want to be destroyed by a Putin nuclear missile without response, your skin ripped off or die of radiation poisoning as we have no response that is up to you. We already have submarines with nuclear warheads which could be adapted as needed, not that there is any guarantee our aircraft would be shit down. Either way it would have to be done as quickly as possible if the US withdrew from NATO and Trident became redundant and would dominate the government's priorities.

    If you think there is no significant difference between Chinese and Roma or six saharan African nations despite all evidence to the contrary that is up to you. However on your own admission even you effectively argue Chinese culture is educationally superior to all other races and nations by definition
    Utter gibberish. I have been away at a BBQ..
    So what you still don't go back and rehash from the last thread as you so frequently and tediously do
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372
    Eabhal said:

    My girlfriend just asked me why energy prices are going up so much and she actually paid attention while I drew her a supply/demand graph, with dotted lines and elasticities and everything.

    This is getting bloody serious now (energy costs and our relationship).

    Funnily enough, I wrote a little article on that for The Oil Drum about 15 years ago - http://theoildrum.com/node/2899
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited August 22

    Does 19% inflation mean that the triple lock will follow suit in 2023?

    It depends on what the CPI is next month. It is the September rate of CPI which (if the highest of the three considerations) is used to calculate the pension increase starting the following April.

    The triple lock has to go.
    I have been consistent is saying so and supported Sunak cancelling it this year, and it should have been permanent

    And my wife and I do benefit from it
    Yep, what gets me is how many reasonable people who are either receiving it or close to receiving it realise how wrong it is. And yet the Government ploughs on with it like it is free money.
    It needs political agreement and Starmer led the opposition to objecting to Sunak's policy of scrapping it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    I see we’re still arguing about the UK nuclear deterrent if the US leaves NATO.

    We’ll still have a French nuclear deterrent, so unless France also quits NATO we’re as fine as we would be with British nukes. As are the various other non nuclear NATO members.
    I thought France wasn't part of NATO for military purposes?

    Or is it a member of the alliance, it just doesn't take part in joint exercises?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,561
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Ad majoram dei gloriam



    Could you not get a closer shot from space?
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

    I have already responded to your reference to Jim Miller. That refers to 1945 plus where you could have airborne deterents. That doesn't apply now. Any aircraft is shot down. It has to be submarine delivered which has the other disadvantage which is size of the warhead. Keep up.

    No I didn't say there was an IQ difference between races. How do you misinterpret this stuff. I said I didn't know. Generally I think it is accepted there is little difference between most races and most differences is down to cultural and educational differences. What is beyond dispute is your assertion that Africans have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, which is clearly complete nonsense. All because you can't accept a web site you linked to is rubbish.
    It is generally accepted that there are average IQ differences between races. The reasons for these differences are fiercely disputed - as is the utility of IQ itself

    It’s only in the last few years that this undisputed scientific fact has become unsayable in polite company
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,788

    Foss said:

    The Belgian PM is apparently talking about a difficult five to ten winters.

    Macron is also doing the "preparing people for tough times" thing;

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/08/20/french-president-emmanuel-macron-doubles-down-on-pessimism_5994164_5.html

    The UK's problem is twofold here. Neither Johnson or Truss are really the people to do the "toil towards a distant light" thing. And as of today, neither of them is really around to do it anyway.
    A genuine question

    Just who is, not just here but across Europe and beyond
    Perfectly reasonable question. And the answer is- I don't know. All we can hope is that the situation will reveal someone. Someone who turns out to be greater than they themselves imagined. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the great example so far.

    What I do know is that the starting point is to accept reality. The trait Johnson shared with Trump is a belief that what you do and don't say changes the facts on the ground. Cosmic ordering applied to statecraft. Truss, unfortunately, seems to be cut from very similar cloth. And that isn't going to work.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    kjh said:

    @HYUFD another straight answer will do.

    Do you think that the average African has an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, or a serverly disabled adult or do you accept that stat was wrong?

    There are plenty of not stupid 5 to 7 year olds, there are plenty of countries with very poor education. The latter may be linked to low iq but that does not render the iq figures redundant
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,861
    edited August 22
    Eabhal said:

    My girlfriend just asked me why energy prices are going up so much and she actually paid attention while I drew her a supply/demand graph, with dotted lines and elasticities and everything.

    This is getting bloody serious now (energy costs and our relationship).

    Elacticity is the big one. Price has to rise an awful lot, before demand for fuel comes down appreciably over the winter.

    In the meantime, you can practice keeping each other warm… ;)
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,502
    Ghedebrav said:

    Not what I'd consider to be an aphrodisiac, but it's a niche kink I guess. How come Johnny Mercer didn't get a look in though? Or indeed 'Rubber Up For Raab'?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62633463

    Protect your Johnson?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited August 22

    Foss said:

    The Belgian PM is apparently talking about a difficult five to ten winters.

    Macron is also doing the "preparing people for tough times" thing;

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/08/20/french-president-emmanuel-macron-doubles-down-on-pessimism_5994164_5.html

    The UK's problem is twofold here. Neither Johnson or Truss are really the people to do the "toil towards a distant light" thing. And as of today, neither of them is really around to do it anyway.
    A genuine question

    Just who is, not just here but across Europe and beyond
    Perfectly reasonable question. And the answer is- I don't know. All we can hope is that the situation will reveal someone. Someone who turns out to be greater than they themselves imagined. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the great example so far.

    What I do know is that the starting point is to accept reality. The trait Johnson shared with Trump is a belief that what you do and don't say changes the facts on the ground. Cosmic ordering applied to statecraft. Truss, unfortunately, seems to be cut from very similar cloth. And that isn't going to work.
    To be honest it would be a brave person to back anyone at present as collectively they are overwhelmed by this enomous problem and facing an electorate demanding answers that are so complex, even impossible, that all administrations across Europe and elsewhere will be very unpopular for years to come, unless the war concludes and energy prices stabilise
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD another straight answer will do.

    Do you think that the average African has an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, or a serverly disabled adult or do you accept that stat was wrong?

    There are plenty of not stupid 5 to 7 year olds, there are plenty of countries with very poor education. The latter may be linked to low iq but that does not render the iq figures redundant
    Almost there. That stat you referred to had certain African countries with IQs at the idiot or sub human level. Do you now accept that stat was wrong then and that it was just down to education.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Ad majoram dei gloriam



    Could you not get a closer shot from space?
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

    I have already responded to your reference to Jim Miller. That refers to 1945 plus where you could have airborne deterents. That doesn't apply now. Any aircraft is shot down. It has to be submarine delivered which has the other disadvantage which is size of the warhead. Keep up.

    No I didn't say there was an IQ difference between races. How do you misinterpret this stuff. I said I didn't know. Generally I think it is accepted there is little difference between most races and most differences is down to cultural and educational differences. What is beyond dispute is your assertion that Africans have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, which is clearly complete nonsense. All because you can't accept a web site you linked to is rubbish.
    It is generally accepted that there are average IQ differences between races. The reasons for these differences are fiercely disputed - as is the utility of IQ itself

    It’s only in the last few years that this undisputed scientific fact has become unsayable in polite company
    You just said it? Unsayable without being challenged is different to unsayable.......something the most vigorous defenders of free speech seem to keep forgetting.....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Ad majoram dei gloriam



    Could you not get a closer shot from space?
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

    I have already responded to your reference to Jim Miller. That refers to 1945 plus where you could have airborne deterents. That doesn't apply now. Any aircraft is shot down. It has to be submarine delivered which has the other disadvantage which is size of the warhead. Keep up.

    No I didn't say there was an IQ difference between races. How do you misinterpret this stuff. I said I didn't know. Generally I think it is accepted there is little difference between most races and most differences is down to cultural and educational differences. What is beyond dispute is your assertion that Africans have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, which is clearly complete nonsense. All because you can't accept a web site you linked to is rubbish.
    It is generally accepted that there are average IQ differences between races. The reasons for these differences are fiercely disputed - as is the utility of IQ itself

    It’s only in the last few years that this undisputed scientific fact has become unsayable in polite company
    I agree that might be the case. I argue with HYUFD arguing that stats showing countries with average IQs at a level of an idiot are accurate which he has previously persisted in, although he now finally appears to be conceding are nonsense. We are talking of IQs in the 30s to 50s as an average which are just nonsense.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    I see we’re still arguing about the UK nuclear deterrent if the US leaves NATO.

    We’ll still have a French nuclear deterrent, so unless France also quits NATO we’re as fine as we would be with British nukes. As are the various other non nuclear NATO members.
    If you want to rely on French nukes bombing Moscow and risking Paris being nuked just to defend a nuked London
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,575
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    I see we’re still arguing about the UK nuclear deterrent if the US leaves NATO.

    We’ll still have a French nuclear deterrent, so unless France also quits NATO we’re as fine as we would be with British nukes. As are the various other non nuclear NATO members.
    I thought France wasn't part of NATO for military purposes?

    Or is it a member of the alliance, it just doesn't take part in joint exercises?
    France rejoined the military command structure in 2009
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    edited August 22
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD another straight answer will do.

    Do you think that the average African has an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, or a serverly disabled adult or do you accept that stat was wrong?

    There are plenty of not stupid 5 to 7 year olds, there are plenty of countries with very poor education. The latter may be linked to low iq but that does not render the iq figures redundant
    Almost there. That stat you referred to had certain African countries with IQs at the idiot or sub human level. Do you now accept that stat was wrong then and that it was just down to education.
    No, as if it was just down to education Chinese ethnicity would not be top in UK schools in exam results on equal terms over other races in terms of education provision as China and Singapore and Japan generally top iq scores overall
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

    I have already responded to your reference to Jim Miller. That refers to 1945 plus where you could have airborne deterents. That doesn't apply now. Any aircraft is shot down. It has to be submarine delivered which has the other disadvantage which is size of the warhead. Keep up.

    No I didn't say there was an IQ difference between races. How do you misinterpret this stuff. I said I didn't know. Generally I think it is accepted there is little difference between most races and most differences is down to cultural and educational differences. What is beyond dispute is your assertion that Africans have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, which is clearly complete nonsense. All because you can't accept a web site you linked to is rubbish.
    You really are the most tedious bore on here sometimes. Continuing the same topic thread after thread and than going back to it hours later.

    If you do not want to be destroyed by a Putin nuclear missile without response, your skin ripped off or die of radiation poisoning as we have no response that is up to you. We already have submarines with nuclear warheads which could be adapted as needed, not that there is any guarantee our aircraft would be shit down. Either way it would have to be done as quickly as possible if the US withdrew from NATO and Trident became redundant and would dominate the government's priorities.

    If you think there is no significant difference between Chinese and Roma or six saharan African nations despite all evidence to the contrary that is up to you. However on your own admission even you effectively argue Chinese culture is educationally superior to all other races and nations by definition
    Utter gibberish. I have been away at a BBQ..
    So what you still don't go back and rehash from the last thread as you so frequently and tediously do
    Tough.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    I see we’re still arguing about the UK nuclear deterrent if the US leaves NATO.

    We’ll still have a French nuclear deterrent, so unless France also quits NATO we’re as fine as we would be with British nukes. As are the various other non nuclear NATO members.
    I thought France wasn't part of NATO for military purposes?

    Or is it a member of the alliance, it just doesn't take part in joint exercises?
    France rejoined the military command structure in 2009
    So it did. Shows how much attention I pay to the French!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    I see we’re still arguing about the UK nuclear deterrent if the US leaves NATO.

    We’ll still have a French nuclear deterrent, so unless France also quits NATO we’re as fine as we would be with British nukes. As are the various other non nuclear NATO members.
    If you want to rely on French nukes bombing Moscow and risking Paris being nuked just to defend a nuked London
    AWE Aldermaston have it covered.
  • How is Truss going to solve inflation and CoL?

    By giving tax cuts to people who don't need them, I think.
    People who work for a living need a tax cut.

    If you want to do tax rises, try starting them on people who are NOT working.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    You obviously don't as you give every excuse under the sun why it can't be done in the time needed
    Because it can't. Go on answer the question. You keep ignoring it

    Scared?

    No? Well answer it then and stop avoiding it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    edited August 22
    ydoethur said:

    Rejoice.

    Sounds like it's time for a rerun of Noah's Castle on ITV.
    Problem is for the guy he ended up having all his stash taken by Mike ‘runarahnd’ Reid and his band of goons.

    It is all well and fine getting a stash of food but you have to protect it

    It used to be available to watch on the Talking Pictures TV website.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,194
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    My girlfriend just asked me why energy prices are going up so much and she actually paid attention while I drew her a supply/demand graph, with dotted lines and elasticities and everything.

    This is getting bloody serious now (energy costs and our relationship).

    Funnily enough, I wrote a little article on that for The Oil Drum about 15 years ago - http://theoildrum.com/node/2899
    What, Eabhals relationship !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,145
    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    narrator: inflation is now expected to reach 18.6% by January https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1445364929905758212

    What we have here is Boris Johnson, World beating inflation. Be proud, be very proud!
    Not quite

    It is already higher in some Baltic states
    And the Netherlands and Spain.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

    How they must be regretting leaving the EU, just as Japan and Switzerland are lucky they stayed in.
    It's not 18% plus inflation in Netherlands and Spain is it? If it is and in France, Germany and Italy too, thank goodness we left. 10% doesn't seem so bad when all other EU states are worse. Sorry I dissed you Boris.
    Not yet in those countries though it is in the Baltic States but nor is it here either and there's no reason at all to think it will be any different in a few months when we're there.

    Oh, yes and the French have only kept their rate down by dumping the loss into EdF's balance sheet.
    Sure; but France is still far less dependent on gas for either household heating or power generation. EDF's net losses in the first half of the year were €1.4bn. Even if you triple that, and add that entirely to the French prices, it'd only have a 0.1% impact on inflation there.

    Simply, France is much less affected by commodity price inflation that the UK, Germany, etc.
    Hmm, unfortunately for France their nuclear fleet is running at 50% capacity due to maintenance being delayed for two years. The winter is going to be horrible everywhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    You obviously don't as you give every excuse under the sun why it can't be done in the time needed
    Because it can't. Go on answer the question. You keep ignoring it

    Scared?

    No? Well answer it then and stop avoiding it.
    As I said when you get vaporised by a Putin nuke, your tedious nitpicking, pedantic body slowly melting in the aftermath of a nuclear explosion into the dust as you quibbled on why we could not get our own nuclear deterrent and it could not be done then don't blame me!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    You obviously don't as you give every excuse under the sun why it can't be done in the time needed
    Because it can't. Go on answer the question. You keep ignoring it

    Scared?

    No? Well answer it then and stop avoiding it.
    As I said when you get vaporised by a Putin nuke, your tedious nitpicking, pedantic body slowly melting in the aftermath of a nuclear explosion into the dust as you quibbled on why we could not get our own nuclear deterrent and it could not be done then don't blame me!!!
    If we've all been nuked, nobody will be able to blame you.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    You obviously don't as you give every excuse under the sun why it can't be done in the time needed
    Because it can't. Go on answer the question. You keep ignoring it

    Scared?

    No? Well answer it then and stop avoiding it.
    If he wants to avoid it its hardly the end of the world. At least he is not repeating it, surely easier to move on?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    I see we’re still arguing about the UK nuclear deterrent if the US leaves NATO.

    We’ll still have a French nuclear deterrent, so unless France also quits NATO we’re as fine as we would be with British nukes. As are the various other non nuclear NATO members.
    I thought France wasn't part of NATO for military purposes?

    Or is it a member of the alliance, it just doesn't take part in joint exercises?
    France rejoined the military command structure in 2009
    A cynic would say that they were struggling to sell French defence kit to other NATO members.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD another straight answer will do.

    Do you think that the average African has an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, or a serverly disabled adult or do you accept that stat was wrong?

    There are plenty of not stupid 5 to 7 year olds, there are plenty of countries with very poor education. The latter may be linked to low iq but that does not render the iq figures redundant
    Almost there. That stat you referred to had certain African countries with IQs at the idiot or sub human level. Do you now accept that stat was wrong then and that it was just down to education.
    No, as if it was just down to education Chinese ethnicity would not be top in UK schools in exam results on equal terms over other races in terms of education provision as China and Singapore and Japan generally top iq scores overall
    So let's get this clear then. You do think many African countries have an average IQ level of 30 - 50 as per the IQ chart you referred to then

    So an idiot, a severely handicapped adult or a 5 -7 year old represents the average African then in your opinion?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    narrator: inflation is now expected to reach 18.6% by January https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1445364929905758212

    What we have here is Boris Johnson, World beating inflation. Be proud, be very proud!
    Not quite

    It is already higher in some Baltic states
    And the Netherlands and Spain.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

    How they must be regretting leaving the EU, just as Japan and Switzerland are lucky they stayed in.
    It's not 18% plus inflation in Netherlands and Spain is it? If it is and in France, Germany and Italy too, thank goodness we left. 10% doesn't seem so bad when all other EU states are worse. Sorry I dissed you Boris.
    Not yet in those countries though it is in the Baltic States but nor is it here either and there's no reason at all to think it will be any different in a few months when we're there.

    Oh, yes and the French have only kept their rate down by dumping the loss into EdF's balance sheet.
    Sure; but France is still far less dependent on gas for either household heating or power generation. EDF's net losses in the first half of the year were €1.4bn. Even if you triple that, and add that entirely to the French prices, it'd only have a 0.1% impact on inflation there.

    Simply, France is much less affected by commodity price inflation that the UK, Germany, etc.
    Hmm, unfortunately for France their nuclear fleet is running at 50% capacity due to maintenance being delayed for two years. The winter is going to be horrible everywhere.
    Not going to disagree with that.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    I see we’re still arguing about the UK nuclear deterrent if the US leaves NATO.

    We’ll still have a French nuclear deterrent, so unless France also quits NATO we’re as fine as we would be with British nukes. As are the various other non nuclear NATO members.
    I thought France wasn't part of NATO for military purposes?

    Or is it a member of the alliance, it just doesn't take part in joint exercises?
    France rejoined the military command structure in 2009
    So it did. Shows how much attention I pay to the French!
    They call it OTAN. No one could blame you for failing to penetrate that.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    You obviously don't as you give every excuse under the sun why it can't be done in the time needed
    Because it can't. Go on answer the question. You keep ignoring it

    Scared?

    No? Well answer it then and stop avoiding it.
    As I said when you get vaporised by a Putin nuke, your tedious nitpicking, pedantic body slowly melting in the aftermath of a nuclear explosion into the dust as you quibbled on why we could not get our own nuclear deterrent and it could not be done then don't blame me!!!
    So you accept you are wrong then.
  • I love privatisation!


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,096

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 August):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-august-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561745018997526529/photo/1

    Starmer now leads Truss as preferred PM even with RedfieldWilton 37% to 35%

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561752640022781952?s=20&t=Gw_Ss7IWTPzePyLSqkrkNA
    My view was that ditching Johnson - whilst being the right thing to do - would actually *decrease* the chances of a Conservative win at the next election. I think I was probably correct.
    Chance of Tory majority did not change much, but volatility did. Bozo could have had another big majority or been completely disastrous for the Tories if left unchallenged. If Truss gets a majority it will be be sub 40.
    The way I'm seeing it is GE19 was BBC - Brexit Boris Corbyn - so take out all 3, add in stagflation and most people getting poorer, and the case for another Tory government (esp after 14 years in power) looks extremely hard to make. I give Truss little chance. I'll be very and unpleasantly surprised if she can turn it around and win another term.
    Cameron 1st govt was coalition rather than tory.
    Cameron 2nd and May were perhaps tory.
    Boris was far more bluekip than tory.
    Truss may ditch bluekip for Thatcher (misinterpreted) on steroids.

    We have not had 12 years of Tory governments, this is one of the reasons they are longer lasting in power, they regularly run against themselves.
    True but by the time of the next election we'll have had 14 straight years of government headed by Conservative PMs. I think the public will kind of 'feel' that now and won't be up for yet another reinvention.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,872

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    You obviously don't as you give every excuse under the sun why it can't be done in the time needed
    Because it can't. Go on answer the question. You keep ignoring it

    Scared?

    No? Well answer it then and stop avoiding it.
    If he wants to avoid it its hardly the end of the world. At least he is not repeating it, surely easier to move on?
    No I am not letting him off this crap.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,861
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 August):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-august-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561745018997526529/photo/1

    Starmer now leads Truss as preferred PM even with RedfieldWilton 37% to 35%

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561752640022781952?s=20&t=Gw_Ss7IWTPzePyLSqkrkNA
    My view was that ditching Johnson - whilst being the right thing to do - would actually *decrease* the chances of a Conservative win at the next election. I think I was probably correct.
    Chance of Tory majority did not change much, but volatility did. Bozo could have had another big majority or been completely disastrous for the Tories if left unchallenged. If Truss gets a majority it will be be sub 40.
    The way I'm seeing it is GE19 was BBC - Brexit Boris Corbyn - so take out all 3, add in stagflation and most people getting poorer, and the case for another Tory government (esp after 14 years in power) looks extremely hard to make. I give Truss little chance. I'll be very and unpleasantly surprised if she can turn it around and win another term.
    Cameron 1st govt was coalition rather than tory.
    Cameron 2nd and May were perhaps tory.
    Boris was far more bluekip than tory.
    Truss may ditch bluekip for Thatcher (misinterpreted) on steroids.

    We have not had 12 years of Tory governments, this is one of the reasons they are longer lasting in power, they regularly run against themselves.
    True but by the time of the next election we'll have had 14 straight years of government headed by Conservative PMs. I think the public will kind of 'feel' that now and won't be up for yet another reinvention.
    1992 waves from three decades ago…
  • .
    ydoethur said:

    MISTY said:

    Cookie said:

    Not sure if this has been noted, but Euro has dropped well below parity with dollar today. Gas, presumably.

    Yup - America is looking at a gas surplus and exporting it at high prices.

    Europe is looking at a gas shortage combined with high prices for what they can get.

    One option for Germany, for example, will be a forced shutdown of selected industries to preserve gas supplies for domestic heating.
    Also the Americans can hike up interest rates to fight inflation.

    The ECB is in a much more difficult position.
    They'd be better off if they hadn't had to refund all the Day 4 tickets at Lord's.
    And better off still if they hadn't run the Hundred.
    The Hundred is Bailey's target inflation rate.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,775
    @IshmaelZ since you are on now, re. this morning's lament for lost plums - I have concluded it was indeed squirrels as you suggested. Because, of the remaining four one was definitely beyond human reach and it has now gone too, along with two others. There's now just one left.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,000
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

    I have already responded to your reference to Jim Miller. That refers to 1945 plus where you could have airborne deterents. That doesn't apply now. Any aircraft is shot down. It has to be submarine delivered which has the other disadvantage which is size of the warhead. Keep up.

    No I didn't say there was an IQ difference between races. How do you misinterpret this stuff. I said I didn't know. Generally I think it is accepted there is little difference between most races and most differences is down to cultural and educational differences. What is beyond dispute is your assertion that Africans have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, which is clearly complete nonsense. All because you can't accept a web site you linked to is rubbish.
    You really are the most tedious bore on here sometimes. Continuing the same topic thread after thread and than going back to it hours later….
    LOLOLOLOLOLO :smile:
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917
    edited August 22
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 August):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-august-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561745018997526529/photo/1

    Starmer now leads Truss as preferred PM even with RedfieldWilton 37% to 35%

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561752640022781952?s=20&t=Gw_Ss7IWTPzePyLSqkrkNA
    My view was that ditching Johnson - whilst being the right thing to do - would actually *decrease* the chances of a Conservative win at the next election. I think I was probably correct.
    Chance of Tory majority did not change much, but volatility did. Bozo could have had another big majority or been completely disastrous for the Tories if left unchallenged. If Truss gets a majority it will be be sub 40.
    The way I'm seeing it is GE19 was BBC - Brexit Boris Corbyn - so take out all 3, add in stagflation and most people getting poorer, and the case for another Tory government (esp after 14 years in power) looks extremely hard to make. I give Truss little chance. I'll be very and unpleasantly surprised if she can turn it around and win another term.
    Cameron 1st govt was coalition rather than tory.
    Cameron 2nd and May were perhaps tory.
    Boris was far more bluekip than tory.
    Truss may ditch bluekip for Thatcher (misinterpreted) on steroids.

    We have not had 12 years of Tory governments, this is one of the reasons they are longer lasting in power, they regularly run against themselves.
    True but by the time of the next election we'll have had 14 straight years of government headed by Conservative PMs. I think the public will kind of 'feel' that now and won't be up for yet another reinvention.
    Kind of. I don't think they will be up for Thatcher misinterpreted on steroids either, but there is a chance Truss either pivots post the party contest to something more palatable or gets replaced for someone more in touch (Bozo?).
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,030
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

    I have already responded to your reference to Jim Miller. That refers to 1945 plus where you could have airborne deterents. That doesn't apply now. Any aircraft is shot down. It has to be submarine delivered which has the other disadvantage which is size of the warhead. Keep up.

    No I didn't say there was an IQ difference between races. How do you misinterpret this stuff. I said I didn't know. Generally I think it is accepted there is little difference between most races and most differences is down to cultural and educational differences. What is beyond dispute is your assertion that Africans have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, which is clearly complete nonsense. All because you can't accept a web site you linked to is rubbish.
    You really are the most tedious bore on here sometimes. Continuing the same topic thread after thread and than going back to it hours later.

    If you do not want to be destroyed by a Putin nuclear missile without response, your skin ripped off or die of radiation poisoning as we have no response that is up to you. We already have submarines with nuclear warheads which could be adapted as needed, not that there is any guarantee our aircraft would be shit down. Either way it would have to be done as quickly as possible if the US withdrew from NATO and Trident became redundant and would dominate the government's priorities.

    If you think there is no significant difference between Chinese and Roma or six saharan African nations despite all evidence to the contrary that is up to you. However on your own admission even you effectively argue Chinese culture is educationally superior to all other races and nations by definition
    Utter gibberish. I have been away at a BBQ..
    So what you still don't go back and rehash from the last thread as you so frequently and tediously do
    You're accusing others of being tedious and repetitive?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,745
    rcs1000 said:

    Fishing said:

    Cookie said:

    Not sure if this has been noted, but Euro has dropped well below parity with dollar today. Gas, presumably.

    Probably also expectations of US interest rate rises given the ridiculously generous stimulus packages Biden has been introducing.

    Few people probably realise it, but America's debt to GDP ratio, at almost 140%, is now similar to Italy's, at 146%, while ours is 96%. Unbelievable.
    Maybe I'm looking in the wrong places (eg https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S ), but I'm seeing about 124% (down from 128% or so when Biden took over)
    It depends if you include the money the government owes to its own Social Security fund.
    More importantly the figures Andy quotes go up to Q1 22 whereas my data is a projection to the end of the year - I should have made that clear.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,000
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    You obviously don't as you give every excuse under the sun why it can't be done in the time needed
    Because it can't. Go on answer the question. You keep ignoring it

    Scared?

    No? Well answer it then and stop avoiding it.
    As I said when you get vaporised by a Putin nuke, your tedious nitpicking, pedantic body slowly melting in the aftermath of a nuclear explosion into the dust as you quibbled on why we could not get our own nuclear deterrent and it could not be done then don't blame me!!!
    If that’s typical of your average fantasy, you should seek help.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    You obviously don't as you give every excuse under the sun why it can't be done in the time needed
    Because it can't. Go on answer the question. You keep ignoring it

    Scared?

    No? Well answer it then and stop avoiding it.
    As I said when you get vaporised by a Putin nuke, your tedious nitpicking, pedantic body slowly melting in the aftermath of a nuclear explosion into the dust as you quibbled on why we could not get our own nuclear deterrent and it could not be done then don't blame me!!!
    So you accept you are wrong then.
    No you are wrong because you instantly give into defeatism, everything you say is why it can't be done rather than it can and therefore when you get eviscerated by a Putin nuke it would be no more than you deserve
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,096
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation.

    Westminster Voting Intention (21 August):

    Labour 43% (+2)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Green 5% (–)
    SNP 5% (+1)
    Reform UK 3% (–)
    Other 2% (-1)

    Changes +/- 14 August

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-21-august-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561745018997526529/photo/1

    Starmer now leads Truss as preferred PM even with RedfieldWilton 37% to 35%

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1561752640022781952?s=20&t=Gw_Ss7IWTPzePyLSqkrkNA
    My view was that ditching Johnson - whilst being the right thing to do - would actually *decrease* the chances of a Conservative win at the next election. I think I was probably correct.
    Chance of Tory majority did not change much, but volatility did. Bozo could have had another big majority or been completely disastrous for the Tories if left unchallenged. If Truss gets a majority it will be be sub 40.
    The way I'm seeing it is GE19 was BBC - Brexit Boris Corbyn - so take out all 3, add in stagflation and most people getting poorer, and the case for another Tory government (esp after 14 years in power) looks extremely hard to make. I give Truss little chance. I'll be very and unpleasantly surprised if she can turn it around and win another term.
    Cameron 1st govt was coalition rather than tory.
    Cameron 2nd and May were perhaps tory.
    Boris was far more bluekip than tory.
    Truss may ditch bluekip for Thatcher (misinterpreted) on steroids.

    We have not had 12 years of Tory governments, this is one of the reasons they are longer lasting in power, they regularly run against themselves.
    True but by the time of the next election we'll have had 14 straight years of government headed by Conservative PMs. I think the public will kind of 'feel' that now and won't be up for yet another reinvention.
    1992 waves from three decades ago…
    I think neither but if I had to choose between another 92 or another 97 as most likely for 24, I'd plump for 97.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,561
    Re the unsayable IQ thing. It is unsayable because only someone intent on committing career suicide would mention it on a public forum in their own name. Despite it being a scientific fact (however uncomfortable)

    That’s a big difference from, say, 5 years ago where you could say it and expect a huge row but you wouldn’t get sacked or cancelled. Now it is just too controversial and unacceptable

    Yet the science remains the same
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    edited August 22
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD another straight answer will do.

    Do you think that the average African has an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, or a serverly disabled adult or do you accept that stat was wrong?

    There are plenty of not stupid 5 to 7 year olds, there are plenty of countries with very poor education. The latter may be linked to low iq but that does not render the iq figures redundant
    Almost there. That stat you referred to had certain African countries with IQs at the idiot or sub human level. Do you now accept that stat was wrong then and that it was just down to education.
    No, as if it was just down to education Chinese ethnicity would not be top in UK schools in exam results on equal terms over other races in terms of education provision as China and Singapore and Japan generally top iq scores overall
    So let's get this clear then. You do think many African countries have an average IQ level of 30 - 50 as per the IQ chart you referred to then

    So an idiot, a severely handicapped adult or a 5 -7 year old represents the average African then in your opinion?
    Average IQ in Africa nations ranges from about 86 in Mauritius to 45 in Liberia actually. Average iq for a 5 year old between 5 and 20 but if you think you know better than the data that is up to you

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/average-iq-by-country

    https://www.test-guide.com/iq-test-for-kids.html
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,721
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    I see we’re still arguing about the UK nuclear deterrent if the US leaves NATO.

    We’ll still have a French nuclear deterrent, so unless France also quits NATO we’re as fine as we would be with British nukes. As are the various other non nuclear NATO members.
    If you want to rely on French nukes bombing Moscow and risking Paris being nuked just to defend a nuked London
    Well the Germans, Italians, Spanish etc do… you get the point.

    We might secure our safety further of course if we were members of the EU. Versus martial law, the nationalisation of the entire British economy and retraining of 5 million project managers while stationing militia in cities to crush dissent, and rejoin starts to gain some appeal.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,372

    New Thread, Suckers

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Ad majoram dei gloriam



    Could you not get a closer shot from space?
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

    I have already responded to your reference to Jim Miller. That refers to 1945 plus where you could have airborne deterents. That doesn't apply now. Any aircraft is shot down. It has to be submarine delivered which has the other disadvantage which is size of the warhead. Keep up.

    No I didn't say there was an IQ difference between races. How do you misinterpret this stuff. I said I didn't know. Generally I think it is accepted there is little difference between most races and most differences is down to cultural and educational differences. What is beyond dispute is your assertion that Africans have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old, which is clearly complete nonsense. All because you can't accept a web site you linked to is rubbish.
    It is generally accepted that there are average IQ differences between races. The reasons for these differences are fiercely disputed - as is the utility of IQ itself

    It’s only in the last few years that this undisputed scientific fact has become unsayable in polite company
    I agree that might be the case. I argue with HYUFD arguing that stats showing countries with average IQs at a level of an idiot are accurate which he has previously persisted in, although he now finally appears to be conceding are nonsense. We are talking of IQs in the 30s to 50s as an average which are just nonsense.
    Have you ever been to Norfolk?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    I see we’re still arguing about the UK nuclear deterrent if the US leaves NATO.

    We’ll still have a French nuclear deterrent, so unless France also quits NATO we’re as fine as we would be with British nukes. As are the various other non nuclear NATO members.
    If you want to rely on French nukes bombing Moscow and risking Paris being nuked just to defend a nuked London
    Well the Germans, Italians, Spanish etc do… you get the point.

    We might secure our safety further of course if we were members of the EU. Versus martial law, the nationalisation of the entire British economy and retraining of 5 million project managers while stationing militia in cities to crush dissent, and rejoin starts to gain some appeal.
    If you really think the French would nuke Moscow if Berlin was nuked but not Paris you also have a great deal of trust in the French!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,917
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD Just for clarity re this resources argument. A straight answer will do:

    If you could get all 5 million engineers in one place at one time do you think you could build an aircraft carrier in a weekend or do you accept there is a critical path?

    Let's not bother, put you in central London alone and then you can get nuked by Putin without response
    No go on answer the question.

    I believe we should build the defences so for the 3rd time you have misrepresented me on that point.

    Go on answer the question.
    You obviously don't as you give every excuse under the sun why it can't be done in the time needed
    Because it can't. Go on answer the question. You keep ignoring it

    Scared?

    No? Well answer it then and stop avoiding it.
    As I said when you get vaporised by a Putin nuke, your tedious nitpicking, pedantic body slowly melting in the aftermath of a nuclear explosion into the dust as you quibbled on why we could not get our own nuclear deterrent and it could not be done then don't blame me!!!
    If that’s typical of your average fantasy, you should seek help.
    I had the weirdest dream over the weekend. For some reason (had watched the athletics that evening) was dreaming of watching a wheelchair race when they started going over jumps. Then a ski cross racer came in at 90 degrees and hit one of the wheelchairs that was already in the air. Woke up quite furious that the course designers had not realised that this would happen if you had a ski cross track and wheelchair jumps race track overlapping......
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,000
    Some context regarding the risible Russian claims that a Ukrainian mother accompanying her young daughter was the one who assassinated Dugin’s daughter.

    .@holodmedia counts the days it took to name Daria Dugina's killer (2) vs. the days spent looking for the people who ordered the assassinations of politician Boris Nemtsov, human rights activist Natalia Estemirova, and journalism Anna Politkovskaya…
    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1561705214629105667
  • Foss said:

    The Belgian PM is apparently talking about a difficult five to ten winters.

    Macron is also doing the "preparing people for tough times" thing;

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2022/08/20/french-president-emmanuel-macron-doubles-down-on-pessimism_5994164_5.html

    The UK's problem is twofold here. Neither Johnson or Truss are really the people to do the "toil towards a distant light" thing. And as of today, neither of them is really around to do it anyway.
    A genuine question

    Just who is, not just here but across Europe and beyond
    Perfectly reasonable question. And the answer is- I don't know. All we can hope is that the situation will reveal someone. Someone who turns out to be greater than they themselves imagined. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is the great example so far.

    What I do know is that the starting point is to accept reality. The trait Johnson shared with Trump is a belief that what you do and don't say changes the facts on the ground. Cosmic ordering applied to statecraft. Truss, unfortunately, seems to be cut from very similar cloth. And that isn't going to work.
    To be honest it would be a brave person to back anyone at present as collectively they are overwhelmed by this enomous problem and facing an electorate demanding answers that are so complex, even impossible, that all administrations across Europe and elsewhere will be very unpopular for years to come, unless the war concludes and energy prices stabilise
    Indeed. You wouldn't fancy being the PM of Denmark, Finland, Greece, Spain or Poland who all have to face their electorates next year
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,493
    edited August 22
    ...
    Dynamo said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dynamo said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    If you want to save the Union you should vote Labour. The only party that will actually level up the country

    What’s the point of “saving” an involuntary union? Even thickos must understand that a forced marriage is unsustainable.

    If one party is holding a gun, it’s just rape.
    It is not a forced marriage, Scots voted 55% to stay in the Union in the once in a generation 2014 referendum and even now polls are not vastly different.

    Nationalists of course never accepted the result but Truss will just ignore them as long as she is PM and refuse indyref2
    Of course she will, young HY! Hmmm.... How well do you know Miss Trust? Do you really know her inner thoughts?
    Truss made clear she would never allow indyref2 on her watch as PM
    Don't you think that by disallowing SIndyRef2 Ms Truss not only pisses off rabid Scots Nats to save the Union, she makes matters worse in the end by pissing off the "don't knows" too, and thus guarantees she loses the Union?
    No, she passes off Nats which is fine as they just want indyrefs forever until they get independence.

    The Don't Knows would be Starmer's problem not Truss' if he allowed indyref2 as Truss has made clear she will not allow indyref2 as PM
    Are you comfortable with the dissolution of the Union so long as it doesn't happen on the Conservatives watch?
    No but as we Tories will never allow indyref2 it is not an issue for us.

    If Starmer got in reliant on the SNP and allowed indyref2 it would be up to him to win it with devomax etc. If he won it great, if he lost it then the Tories would switch to hard English Nationalism to take as tough a line as possible with the SNP in Scexit talks
    Until Prime Minister HYUFD takes office no one will have done more to facilitate the break up of the Union than Boris Johnson. Given the chance, you will give him a run for his money.
    Little or no effort has been made by the government or by any of the Unionist parties to strengthen the union. Seriously, who gives a toss about regional parliaments in England? What needs to happen is CULTURAL. And not some idiotic waving of the Union flag either. Subsidise cultural festivals in parts of Britain that feature artists, musicians, etc. from other parts. Learn from the Edinburgh Festival, the Eisteddfod, etc. Let young people have a good time. Make the SNP look like the misery gut xenophobic politician moneyheads that they are.
    Yes I am sure a Union Jack festooned version of the Edinburgh Festival or Glastonbury featuring young Unionists will turn even the hardest of Nats to diehard Yoons
    You should read what I wrote again.

    I'm not talking about winning over diehard Nats, or politics, or waving the Union flag. I thought I'd made all of those points clear. I am talking about improving and strengthening the Union though. You do realise it is possible to hold for example a Scottish-themed cultural event outside of Scotland? And furthermore, that Scotland has voted numerous times in favour of the Union? The Union has to improve or die. And perhaps if you weren't so politically-minded you might realise that that's fundamentally a cultural issue. I am in favour of the Union improving, without the focus being on only doing the minimum necessary to win another referendum if one is held.

    The main message of the SNP nasties is that "English people don't let you do stuff". Pull the damned rug from under the SNP's feet. Win even more of the middle ground.
    I agree with you, and your idea of cultural celebrations is cute. Actually, one thing Boris Johnson started out doing very well was social media when there was a cultural festival being celebrated. He conveyed sincere enthusiasm well.

    'Love bombing' is a well-established political tactic and I struggle to see why that isn't the strategy currently adopted by the UK Government vis-à-vis Scotland, given that it is certain that the Union will at some point be challenged at the ballot box again. Instead of harrumphing on about how Scottish buildings must display the UJ, can you imagine if UKG mandated that public buildings in England must display the Saltire? How different would the impact of that be North of the border?

    Added to some of the constitutional changes I suggested yesterday, and given a little time, I don't think Indy 2 would even be close.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,017

    Scott_xP said:

    Reports of windows being blown out by huge blasts in Sevastopol, in Ukraine's Russian-occupied Crimea. Explosions "heard all over the city" according to reports, and in town of Inkerman about 10 km to the east. https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1561736276369358848

    Airdefence, it seems. Probably being taunted by cheap drones.

    It was admitted that Ukrainian Migs have actually been adapted to take HARM missiles, so at some point anything turning on a radar is going to get hit.

    It would be quite amusing to release a load of mylar coated helium baloons when the wind is in the right direction.
    Has the HARM stuff been confirmed? That would be an incredible jury rig, even to minimally power up a HARM, let it detect a target with its internal capabilities and fire it. Let alone properly integrate it with the plane….
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,017

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    MISTY said:

    FF43 said:

    MISTY said:

    FF43 said:

    MISTY said:

    Resolution Foundation
    @resfoundation
    ·
    37m
    In summary? There is no escaping the cost-of-living crisis. It will take many months, and much more living standards pain, before inflation starts to ease. The number one priority for the next PM is to offer significant support to help families through a brutal winter and beyond.

    https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1561673277604597760


    The government's first priority should be cheap, plentiful energy and I wouldn't be surprised if that is what Liz targets.

    No doubt Truss will "target" it, although it doesn't seem to be a priority. But platitudes from her about supply-side won't get us cheap and plentiful energy. She would be a lot more useful if she helped people deal with energy being not at all cheap or plentiful.

    If the default position of the main parties is that cheap plentiful energy is essentially impossible from now until doomsday, I would suggest they will not be main parties for that long.

    I agree there is a medium to long term need for cheap non-carbon energy, which is wind and solar - that for bizarre reasons Truss and parts of the Conservative Party are adamantly opposed to. Maybe also tidal

    In the meantime we have to learn how to get off Russian fossil fuels.
    Well if you think that message is going to stand through this winter, best of British.

    Truss is apparently looking at unwinding the mechanism whereby rising electricity prices must lift all boats, netting green producers big profits.

    Let the green producers supply cheaply, if they can.
    As I say there is a medium to long term need for cheap green energy, so no dispute there.

    The immediate need is for energy. At any price.
    Ultimately, the amount of gas available globally that is available to import has dropped about 15%. Part of this is because Russia has dramatically reduced flows to Europe, part is because most countries aren't buying Russian LNG. And part is because global LNG capacity has effectively dropped because distances have increased (and therefore so have transit times).

    The world needs to reduce their usage of imported gas by 15%.

    We in the West can afford to pay up (somewhat). But what of Pakistan or Turkey? Those countries were poor before.

    Right now, the reduction in gas usage is falling predominantly on the very poorest countries. One of the reasons why Pakistan is really struggling is because we - and Germany and Spain etc. - are outbidding it for LNG cargoes.
    The only positive in all this is Putin has fecked his country for a generation. No one will trust their energy or commodities from RU for a very long time after this. As this is all they have they are screwed.
    There are a few people on here who thought Russia are 'winning' this war. My question to them was, and is (if they still hold that view): "What is your definition of winning?"

    The longer this goes on, the harder it is for me to see any way realistic way Russia comes out of this stronger in the next decade than if they had not launched this evil war. They are demeaning themselves in every way, including their beloved stronk military.
    I mostly agree, and yet... They haven't lost yet. If Western support for Ukraine falters then Russia will prevail and the West would have been defeated.

    I'm not sure the West has a realistic sense of how much effort it will take to last the course longer than the Russians. Stocks of Western equipment and ammunition are being depleted at a rate faster than they are being manufactured. What happens when the cupboard is bare, if the Russians are still fighting at that point?
    The West has much greater ability to ramp up production than does Russia. Firstly, we're not struggling with sanctions. Secondly, we've got 20-30x the economic base to exploit.
    Sure, but we have to actually do so. Six months in and there's not much sign of it. The vast majority of equipment and ammunition being supplied is still from prior stocks.
    Thales Belfast (at least) is working flat out.
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