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LAB analysis suggests a double-digit bounce for PM Truss – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited August 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:
    Households can only dream of 18.6% inflation if those energy estimates next year are correct.
    The inflation estimate is based on those forecasts.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650

    dixiedean said:

    Citi forecast for January.
    CPI 18.6%
    RPI 21%

    Quick, cut taxes, that'll fix it
    Could Liz Truss be the most economically illiterate PM ever?

    Happy to be corrected. I’m sure some smart arse will refer to the corn laws or somesuch.
    If her response to all this is cut tax and hope then yes. If she does something about energy and CoL then she gets a 'pending.......'
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    edited August 2022

    dixiedean said:

    Citi forecast for January.
    CPI 18.6%
    RPI 21%

    Quick, cut taxes, that'll fix it
    There is a cost of living crisis. Most political focus is on an energy price crisis. Which was the catalyst, but is now only a subset, of the issue.
    These pay strikes won't be solved whilst the target is vanishing over the horizon.
    Ironically, there was a PM once who came to office pledged to tackle inflation. And had some success.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    BTW - that piccie of Liz Truss... what a sour expression!

    What the heck were the Tories doing in Belfast anyway? They have no mandate in N Ireland, they never stand for election there.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Conservatives

    Don't blame you, though:

    'The Northern Ireland Conservatives is a section of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party that operates in Northern Ireland. The party won 0.03% of the vote in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election and 0.7% of the vote in the 2019 United Kingdom General election in Northern Ireland.'

    These are worse GE figures than the MRLP where it stands, though the latter is too sensible to try to stand in NI.
    It is a great thing the Conservatives stand in Northern Ireland, reduces sectarianism and ensures they get more of the choice the rest of the UK does.

    A pity Labour and the LDs don't stand but just give their sister parties the SDLP and Alliance a free run in the province (although the Conservatives did stand on a joint ticket with their sister party the UUP in 2010 getting 15% of the vote)
    Here’s a Conservative “reducing sectarianism”:

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19569303/political-heavy-hitters-tour-uk-split/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863
    edited August 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:
    Households can only dream of 18.6% inflation if those energy estimates next year are correct.
    The inflation estimate is based on those forecasts.
    Have you seen the April estimate ?

    That, by definition CAN NOT affect January inflation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    Can't fault that - and the killer bit isn't even the tax, it's the fact that you can't claim expenses which suddenly makes the contract in London / Aberdeen completely uneconomic.

    Now I've had a standard solution for years regarding this because we need a means of separating highly skilled freelancers from general abuse of low paid workers. And the solution really isn't that difficult (although it's a political mare) - where the day rate is over £x an hour (where £x is approximately £40-50 an hour) the worker can be self employed / work through a limited company outside IR35. Below that it should be PAYE..... I suggested it as part of the expenses consultation back in 2015 when this end game became obvious but you can see why it's politically an issue...

    The expenses rules make no sense, precisely because they target the genuine contractor as opposed to the disguised employee. It makes weekly commutes uneconomic, and long daily commutes tiring.

    What’s the actual problem with low-paid ‘contractors’, that banning expenses is trying to solve?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 3,127

    Taz said:
    … but the economy will have recovered by autumn 2024. Copyright: @Sandpit
    Not what he said...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Here's a thought to ponder. Had it not been for Brexit and a perceived crumbling of the old European order, would Putin have had the brass neck to invade Ukraine? Remember the hilarity which greeted Cameron's speech about peace in Europe and the EU? Doesn't seem quite so funny now.

    Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014.

    I know you're stupid, but I didn't think you were that stupid.
    While that's true, StarkD does have perhaps half a point there.

    Brexit is likely a greater contributory factor towards Putin's decision to gamble at the beginning of the year than is the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, for example.
    But neither of those things was likely decisive.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    edited August 2022
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Citi forecast for January.
    CPI 18.6%
    RPI 21%

    Quick, cut taxes, that'll fix it
    There is a cost of living crisis. Most political focus is on an energy price crisis. Which was the catalyst, but is only a subset, of the issue.
    Ironically, there was a PM once who came to office pledged to tackle inflation. And had some success.
    Yes, quite.
    Its absolutely crystal clear what the focus needs to be on from day one of a 'new' government. And, consequently, what it must eventually be judged on
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022
    The Guardian illustrate their article with a photo of a mural depicting Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in a boxing ring. Sunak is shown wearing gold-coloured gloves and shorts and with a Prada label on his belt. He is not wearing any political colours or flags. Truss is. She is shown wearing red, white, and blue: blue gloves (with the EU symbol), a white belt (with a Claire's label), and red shorts. Just in case anyone didn't get the message, she is also wearing a Union Jack top. Behind Sunak on a corner cushion, the word "Leave" appears; behind Truss, the word "Remain". There are also some cones. They are black and white. The only one with fully visible words is on Sunak's side. It carries the word "The Dark Horse".

    The artist Ciaran Gallagher is from Belfast and can be presumed to be familiar with the use of regalia.

    Those who wish to ponder the question of whether or not the mural is racist should ask what they would think if Sunak were Jewish and similarly depicted in gold gloves with a Prada label and no flag, described as a "dark horse" pitted against Truss wearing clothing in red, white, and blue as well as a Union Jack.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited August 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:
    Households can only dream of 18.6% inflation if those energy estimates next year are correct.
    The inflation estimate is based on those forecasts.
    Have you seen the April estimate ?

    That, by definition CAN NOT affect January inflation.
    No, but Citi have seen those forecast, too.
    And are predicting the inflation peak in January.

    (Edit) - or at least that's what they said:
    Benjamin Nabarro, chief UK economist at Citi, told clients:

    Our latest estimate, updated for the further 25% and 7% rally in UK gas and electricity prices last week, points to a further upside shift in UK inflation.
    Accounting for these developments, as well as updating our own weights for CPI/ RPI and honing our own accounting for curve backwardation, we now expect CPI inflation to peak at over 18% in January. RPI inflation, we think, will peak at over 20%
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    Dynamo said:

    The Guardian illustrate their article with a photo of a mural depicting Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in a boxing ring. Sunak is shown wearing gold-coloured gloves and shorts and with a Prada label on his belt. He is not wearing any political colours or flags. Truss is. She is shown wearing red, white, and blue: blue gloves (with the EU symbol), a white belt (with a Claire's label), and red shorts. Just in case anyone didn't get the message, she is also wearing a Union Jack top. Behind Sunak on a corner cushion, the word "Leave" appears; behind Truss, the word "Remain". There are also some cones. They are black and white. The only one with fully visible words is on Sunak's side. It carries the word "The Dark Horse".

    The artist Ciaran Gallagher is from Belfast and can be presumed to be familiar with the use of regalia.

    Sunak is good, but he hasn’t quite captured Truss’s fizzog.

  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    edited August 2022
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    Can't fault that - and the killer bit isn't even the tax, it's the fact that you can't claim expenses which suddenly makes the contract in London / Aberdeen completely uneconomic.

    Now I've had a standard solution for years regarding this because we need a means of separating highly skilled freelancers from general abuse of low paid workers. And the solution really isn't that difficult (although it's a political mare) - where the day rate is over £x an hour (where £x is approximately £40-50 an hour) the worker can be self employed / work through a limited company outside IR35. Below that it should be PAYE..... I suggested it as part of the expenses consultation back in 2015 when this end game became obvious but you can see why it's politically an issue...

    The expenses rules make no sense, precisely because they target the genuine contractor as opposed to the disguised employee. It makes weekly commutes uneconomic, and long daily commutes tiring.

    What’s the actual problem with low-paid ‘contractors’, that banning expenses is trying to solve?
    You need to go back to the original examples HMRC used to justify their 2016 changes to expenses for umbrella companies - I don't have it to hand...

    One of their examples was a temp secretary claiming expenses for day to day commuting into London when a normal secretary couldn't....

    The point is that there comes a point where the person doing the long commute isn't easily substitutable.

    And you can't then use the usually definitions of employment for these freelancers because they often look to all intents and purposes as employees when you use the UK's legal definitions.

    And you can't easily move to an 80% rule because if you look at many projects they are 18-30 months of solid work and then the contractor is never needed again
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Dynamo said:

    The Guardian illustrate their article with a photo of a mural depicting Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in a boxing ring. Sunak is shown wearing gold-coloured gloves and shorts and with a Prada label on his belt. He is not wearing any political colours or flags. Truss is. She is shown wearing red, white, and blue: blue gloves (with the EU symbol), a white belt (with a Claire's label), and red shorts. Just in case anyone didn't get the message, she is also wearing a Union Jack top. Behind Sunak on a corner cushion, the word "Leave" appears; behind Truss, the word "Remain". There are also some cones. They are black and white. The only one with fully visible words is on Sunak's side. It carries the word "The Dark Horse".

    The artist Ciaran Gallagher is from Belfast and can be presumed to be familiar with the use of regalia.

    Sunak is good, but he hasn’t quite captured Truss’s fizzog.

    What's the jewellery's meaning?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,327

    Here's a thought to ponder. Had it not been for Brexit and a perceived crumbling of the old European order, would Putin have had the brass neck to invade Ukraine? Remember the hilarity which greeted Cameron's speech about peace in Europe and the EU? Doesn't seem quite so funny now.

    Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014.

    I know you're stupid, but I didn't think you were that stupid.
    Don't be silly. It's obvious to anyone who isn't desperate to score debating points that I was referring to the massive escalation in 2022 that resulted in a global crisis. I doubt Brexit was the only factor - Trump having been on the scene and even Covid probably played a part - but it was surely part of Putin's calculation. Was it the tipping point? We'll probably never know.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    Carnyx said:

    Dynamo said:

    The Guardian illustrate their article with a photo of a mural depicting Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in a boxing ring. Sunak is shown wearing gold-coloured gloves and shorts and with a Prada label on his belt. He is not wearing any political colours or flags. Truss is. She is shown wearing red, white, and blue: blue gloves (with the EU symbol), a white belt (with a Claire's label), and red shorts. Just in case anyone didn't get the message, she is also wearing a Union Jack top. Behind Sunak on a corner cushion, the word "Leave" appears; behind Truss, the word "Remain". There are also some cones. They are black and white. The only one with fully visible words is on Sunak's side. It carries the word "The Dark Horse".

    The artist Ciaran Gallagher is from Belfast and can be presumed to be familiar with the use of regalia.

    Sunak is good, but he hasn’t quite captured Truss’s fizzog.

    What's the jewellery's meaning?
    Truss’s masonic earrings?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743

    Here's a thought to ponder. Had it not been for Brexit and a perceived crumbling of the old European order, would Putin have had the brass neck to invade Ukraine? Remember the hilarity which greeted Cameron's speech about peace in Europe and the EU? Doesn't seem quite so funny now.

    Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014.

    I know you're stupid, but I didn't think you were that stupid.
    Don't be silly. It's obvious to anyone who isn't desperate to score debating points that I was referring to the massive escalation in 2022 that resulted in a global crisis. I doubt Brexit was the only factor - Trump having been on the scene and even Covid probably played a part - but it was surely part of Putin's calculation. Was it the tipping point? We'll probably never know.
    Student debating society is about their level.

    You are, of course, correct.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Carnyx said:

    Dynamo said:

    The Guardian illustrate their article with a photo of a mural depicting Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in a boxing ring. Sunak is shown wearing gold-coloured gloves and shorts and with a Prada label on his belt. He is not wearing any political colours or flags. Truss is. She is shown wearing red, white, and blue: blue gloves (with the EU symbol), a white belt (with a Claire's label), and red shorts. Just in case anyone didn't get the message, she is also wearing a Union Jack top. Behind Sunak on a corner cushion, the word "Leave" appears; behind Truss, the word "Remain". There are also some cones. They are black and white. The only one with fully visible words is on Sunak's side. It carries the word "The Dark Horse".

    The artist Ciaran Gallagher is from Belfast and can be presumed to be familiar with the use of regalia.

    Sunak is good, but he hasn’t quite captured Truss’s fizzog.

    What's the jewellery's meaning?
    Truss’s masonic earrings?
    The ones that look like perches for tiny budgies? They look like bell outlines. No resonance with squares and compasses for me.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142
    File under 'no shit Sherlock':
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/22/struggling-road-trip-tantrums-how-buy-15-minutes-extra-peace/

    "Researchers found the typical child will ask “are we nearly there yet?” after 32 minutes, and will persist in asking the same question over and over again – four times in all on a typical trip."
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 353
    If I were in Liz Truss’ position I’d bring in an emergency budget that either cancels the energy cap rise or bungs a load more cash out Sunak style. I’d then say that this was a short term measure to help households and that a longer term solution is needed based around what I’d said in my campaign. I’d say that to do this I would need my own mandate and call an immediate general election.

    It might not be responsible or honest but it might work and it’s the only way I can see that Truss and the Conservatives could win another term in office.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    Can't fault that - and the killer bit isn't even the tax, it's the fact that you can't claim expenses which suddenly makes the contract in London / Aberdeen completely uneconomic.

    Now I've had a standard solution for years regarding this because we need a means of separating highly skilled freelancers from general abuse of low paid workers. And the solution really isn't that difficult (although it's a political mare) - where the day rate is over £x an hour (where £x is approximately £40-50 an hour) the worker can be self employed / work through a limited company outside IR35. Below that it should be PAYE..... I suggested it as part of the expenses consultation back in 2015 when this end game became obvious but you can see why it's politically an issue...

    The expenses rules make no sense, precisely because they target the genuine contractor as opposed to the disguised employee. It makes weekly commutes uneconomic, and long daily commutes tiring.

    What’s the actual problem with low-paid ‘contractors’, that banning expenses is trying to solve?
    You need to go back to the original examples HMRC used to justify their 2016 changes to expenses for umbrella companies - I don't have it to hand...

    One of their examples was a temp secretary claiming expenses for day to day commuting into London when a normal secretary couldn't....
    Well, that’s surely because the temp worker is in a different place every few weeks, and doesn’t have a permanent place of work? The temp secretary might live in say Reading, and be in London one week, Bristol the next week, and Birmingham the week after.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 3,127

    Here's a thought to ponder. Had it not been for Brexit and a perceived crumbling of the old European order, would Putin have had the brass neck to invade Ukraine? Remember the hilarity which greeted Cameron's speech about peace in Europe and the EU? Doesn't seem quite so funny now.

    Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014.

    I know you're stupid, but I didn't think you were that stupid.
    Don't be silly. It's obvious to anyone who isn't desperate to score debating points that I was referring to the massive escalation in 2022 that resulted in a global crisis. I doubt Brexit was the only factor - Trump having been on the scene and even Covid probably played a part - but it was surely part of Putin's calculation. Was it the tipping point? We'll probably never know.
    What you seem to be saying is "we shouldn't have left the EU, even though a majority of people wanted to, because it emboldened Putin". This in turn looks like making excuses for him, rather than placing the blame for the invasion 100% on his head where it belongs.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,810
    edited August 2022

    Here's a thought to ponder. Had it not been for Brexit and a perceived crumbling of the old European order, would Putin have had the brass neck to invade Ukraine? Remember the hilarity which greeted Cameron's speech about peace in Europe and the EU? Doesn't seem quite so funny now.

    Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014.

    I know you're stupid, but I didn't think you were that stupid.
    Don't be silly. It's obvious to anyone who isn't desperate to score debating points that I was referring to the massive escalation in 2022 that resulted in a global crisis. I doubt Brexit was the only factor - Trump having been on the scene and even Covid probably played a part - but it was surely part of Putin's calculation. Was it the tipping point? We'll probably never know.
    We'll never know if Brexit was a tiny part of Putin's calculation, but I would think it odd if it were because it is pretty obvious that it hasn't reduced our assertiveness on the world stage at all, as for instance the AUKUS deal shows. But perhaps the incessant doom-mongering of the remainer press here and in Europe did give him a false impression of our likely reaction.

    But I think far more important would have been America's (and consequently our) disastrous and chaotic retreat from Afghanistan and the untried SPD regime in Germany with its tradition of Ostpolitik.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,494
    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Conservative voters in the shires? ;)
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    Can't fault that - and the killer bit isn't even the tax, it's the fact that you can't claim expenses which suddenly makes the contract in London / Aberdeen completely uneconomic.

    Now I've had a standard solution for years regarding this because we need a means of separating highly skilled freelancers from general abuse of low paid workers. And the solution really isn't that difficult (although it's a political mare) - where the day rate is over £x an hour (where £x is approximately £40-50 an hour) the worker can be self employed / work through a limited company outside IR35. Below that it should be PAYE..... I suggested it as part of the expenses consultation back in 2015 when this end game became obvious but you can see why it's politically an issue...

    The expenses rules make no sense, precisely because they target the genuine contractor as opposed to the disguised employee. It makes weekly commutes uneconomic, and long daily commutes tiring.

    What’s the actual problem with low-paid ‘contractors’, that banning expenses is trying to solve?
    You need to go back to the original examples HMRC used to justify their 2016 changes to expenses for umbrella companies - I don't have it to hand...

    One of their examples was a temp secretary claiming expenses for day to day commuting into London when a normal secretary couldn't....
    Well, that’s surely because the temp worker is in a different place every few weeks, and doesn’t have a permanent place of work? The temp secretary might live in say Reading, and be in London one week, Bristol the next week, and Birmingham the week after.
    Yes but that isn't how HMRC see it. Why should a permanent employee have to pay for her commute out of taxed income while the temporary employee pays for it out of her pre tax income...

    Basically our entire income tax system is a mess.....
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,738
    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I'm surprised you see Truss as continuity Johnson. I expect Truss to be very unlike Johnson - at least in that she will be more principle-based rather that being populist and, importantly, is prepared to be unpopular. If nothing else it will be a relief from the shopping trolley.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,869
    Mr. Fishing, a flat income tax rate would be a bold move but a tough sell. Out of interest, what would you set it at?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743

    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Conservative voters in the shires? ;)
    The Cons have thrown away a 31 point lead in “Rest of South”. Currently even stevens.

    Not all shires inhabitants are relaxed about Con gross incompetence and mendacity.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    dixiedean said:

    Citi forecast for January.
    CPI 18.6%
    RPI 21%

    Weimar Deutschmarks, Confederate Dollars…Pounds Sterling.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dynamo said:

    The Guardian illustrate their article with a photo of a mural depicting Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in a boxing ring. Sunak is shown wearing gold-coloured gloves and shorts and with a Prada label on his belt. He is not wearing any political colours or flags. Truss is. She is shown wearing red, white, and blue: blue gloves (with the EU symbol), a white belt (with a Claire's label), and red shorts. Just in case anyone didn't get the message, she is also wearing a Union Jack top. Behind Sunak on a corner cushion, the word "Leave" appears; behind Truss, the word "Remain". There are also some cones. They are black and white. The only one with fully visible words is on Sunak's side. It carries the word "The Dark Horse".

    The artist Ciaran Gallagher is from Belfast and can be presumed to be familiar with the use of regalia.

    Sunak is good, but he hasn’t quite captured Truss’s fizzog.

    What's the jewellery's meaning?
    Truss’s masonic earrings?
    The ones that look like perches for tiny budgies? They look like bell outlines. No resonance with squares and compasses for me.
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3d/Dollarnote_siegel_hq.jpg/1200px-Dollarnote_siegel_hq.jpg

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 18,056

    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Conservative voters in the shires? ;)
    All those Passivhaus barn conversions!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dynamo said:

    The Guardian illustrate their article with a photo of a mural depicting Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in a boxing ring. Sunak is shown wearing gold-coloured gloves and shorts and with a Prada label on his belt. He is not wearing any political colours or flags. Truss is. She is shown wearing red, white, and blue: blue gloves (with the EU symbol), a white belt (with a Claire's label), and red shorts. Just in case anyone didn't get the message, she is also wearing a Union Jack top. Behind Sunak on a corner cushion, the word "Leave" appears; behind Truss, the word "Remain". There are also some cones. They are black and white. The only one with fully visible words is on Sunak's side. It carries the word "The Dark Horse".

    The artist Ciaran Gallagher is from Belfast and can be presumed to be familiar with the use of regalia.

    Sunak is good, but he hasn’t quite captured Truss’s fizzog.

    What's the jewellery's meaning?
    Truss’s masonic earrings?
    The ones that look like perches for tiny budgies? They look like bell outlines. No resonance with squares and compasses for me.
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3d/Dollarnote_siegel_hq.jpg/1200px-Dollarnote_siegel_hq.jpg

    Not particularly convinced. Maybe some other significance - is she musical?
  • We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE
  • Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I'm surprised you see Truss as continuity Johnson. I expect Truss to be very unlike Johnson - at least in that she will be more principle-based rather that being populist and, importantly, is prepared to be unpopular. If nothing else it will be a relief from the shopping trolley.
    That does not sound like Liz Truss in the leadership campaign, who has advocated and dropped policies within 48 hours. Call it populism or trolleyism or even common sense but it is hard to justify the epithet principled.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 18,056
    So Truss' necklace signifies she is into S&M, and now her earrings signify that she is in the Freemasons.

    What next? Check her for other piercings!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,324

    We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    Only hope for the Tories is if Labour let the Trots back in. And whatever you think about SKS, it’s abundantly clear he’s not going to do that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,863

    We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    If the Gov't doesn't do anything about those energy bills and the resulting wage-price-sterling crash-interest rate rise sprial. Yes.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,911
    A luxury yacht formerly owned by sanctioned Russian businessman Dmitry Pumpyansky will be sold at auction on Tuesday after the billionaire failed to repay JPMorgan Chase & Co. a loan, according to an auctioneer’s website.

    It will be the first superyacht to be publicly auctioned since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed authorities to freeze luxury vessels in ports around the world, Nigel Hollyer, a broker at auction house Howe Robinson Partners, told Bloomberg by phone.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/22/super-yacht-seized-from-russian-businessman-to-be-auctioned
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I'm surprised you see Truss as continuity Johnson. I expect Truss to be very unlike Johnson - at least in that she will be more principle-based rather that being populist and, importantly, is prepared to be unpopular. If nothing else it will be a relief from the shopping trolley.
    That does not sound like Liz Truss in the leadership campaign, who has advocated and dropped policies within 48 hours. Call it populism or trolleyism or even common sense but it is hard to justify the epithet principled.
    She has run a campaign that is all about saying populist fantasy stuff are far as the membership are concerned. e.g. nonsense about solar panels, tax cuts to solve all problems, no need to worry about high interest rates etc etc.

    Will she stop this habit when PM?

  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,345
    edited August 2022
    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Conservative voters in the shires? ;)
    Only when their savings accounts are paying 7% though.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,324

    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Conservative voters in the shires? ;)
    Only when their savings accounts are paying 7% though.
    Though with inflation at 18% that’s not going to cut it.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I'm surprised you see Truss as continuity Johnson. I expect Truss to be very unlike Johnson - at least in that she will be more principle-based rather that being populist and, importantly, is prepared to be unpopular. If nothing else it will be a relief from the shopping trolley.
    That does not sound like Liz Truss in the leadership campaign, who has advocated and dropped policies within 48 hours. Call it populism or trolleyism or even common sense but it is hard to justify the epithet principled.
    She has run a campaign that is all about saying populist fantasy stuff are far as the membership are concerned. e.g. nonsense about solar panels, tax cuts to solve all problems, no need to worry about high interest rates etc etc.

    Will she stop this habit when PM?

    No because she's had this habit for the past 15 years - just randomly pick an interview with her discussing a "new" idea....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    edited August 2022

    We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    Quite possibly. Of course the nearer that is to the election the better for Labour.
    My current prediction of what may be is based on the Tory % at the next election, on a 34/38/40 basis
    34% or thereabouts probably stops a Labour majority, but Starmer would have a stable minority up to about 36/37% Tory share
    38% or thereabouts Tories largest party (maybe at 37%)
    40% and up 5th Tory term
  • Citi predicts UK inflation to hit 18%

    Bye Liz
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    Criminal barristers vote to go on indefinite strike from next month

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62629776
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    Balfour family papers bought for the nation

    Thousands of items from the family archive of former British Prime Minister Arthur Balfour (1848-1930) have been bought by National Records of Scotland, on behalf of the nation.

    He is best known as the author of the 1917 Balfour Declaration conferring British support for a Jewish homeland in Palestine.

    The Balfour family was very well-connected in scientific, artistic and political circles. Several family members were closely involved with the women’s suffrage movement, perhaps most notably Lady Frances Balfour (1858-1931)…

    Culture Minister Neil Gray said:

    “This purchase safeguards a remarkable collection which offers insights into the life of an influential Scottish family over a huge period of history.

    “The public ownership of the Balfour archive not only ensures that it is preserved whole and in Scotland forever, but that the public and researchers have the opportunity to see and study it.”

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/news/2022/balfour-family-papers-bought-for-the-nation
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    edited August 2022
    geoffw said:

    A luxury yacht formerly owned by sanctioned Russian businessman Dmitry Pumpyansky will be sold at auction on Tuesday after the billionaire failed to repay JPMorgan Chase & Co. a loan, according to an auctioneer’s website.

    It will be the first superyacht to be publicly auctioned since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed authorities to freeze luxury vessels in ports around the world, Nigel Hollyer, a broker at auction house Howe Robinson Partners, told Bloomberg by phone.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/22/super-yacht-seized-from-russian-businessman-to-be-auctioned

    It’s a good time to be in the maritime repossessions business!

    There’s loads of Russian yachts being chased around the world at the moment, on behalf of banks who haven’t been paid because of sanctions. The repossession agents have to wait for them to make land, and then find a local judge to sign a court order they hope can be enforced, before they leave again for international waters. There’s also been stories of ships impounded by various port authorities for non-payment of berthing fees, power and fuel, staffed by a skeleton crew who also haven’t been paid in months.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    edited August 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Criminal barristers vote to go on indefinite strike from next month

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62629776

    They came bottom of the 'public support for strikes' table so i'd expect the govt to take the hardlineiest hardline with them
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Dynamo said:

    The Guardian illustrate their article with a photo of a mural depicting Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in a boxing ring. Sunak is shown wearing gold-coloured gloves and shorts and with a Prada label on his belt. He is not wearing any political colours or flags. Truss is. She is shown wearing red, white, and blue: blue gloves (with the EU symbol), a white belt (with a Claire's label), and red shorts. Just in case anyone didn't get the message, she is also wearing a Union Jack top. Behind Sunak on a corner cushion, the word "Leave" appears; behind Truss, the word "Remain". There are also some cones. They are black and white. The only one with fully visible words is on Sunak's side. It carries the word "The Dark Horse".

    The artist Ciaran Gallagher is from Belfast and can be presumed to be familiar with the use of regalia.

    Those who wish to ponder the question of whether or not the mural is racist should ask what they would think if Sunak were Jewish and similarly depicted in gold gloves with a Prada label and no flag, described as a "dark horse" pitted against Truss wearing clothing in red, white, and blue as well as a Union Jack.

    I think we all know a citizen of nowhere when we see one.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,810

    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Conservative voters in the shires? ;)
    The BBC's head of diversity - hir (not sure of the preferred pronouns) salary is £250,000 part time, £445,000 on a full time basis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    edited August 2022
    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq. Or otherwise because Chinese culture is apparently inherently intellectually and educationally superior to other cultures based on your argument

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,767
    edited August 2022
    Interesting private sector response in the North East to “Period Poverty” (which can be argued isn’t a thing in itself and “poverty” is the problem) - unlike some governments who just like spaffing money on “free (sic) stuff”:

    If you need sanitary products and can’t access them, go to any Darling’s Pharmacy and say
    ‘I’ve come for a package from Ann’
    You’ll be given a discreet package of products free of charge, no questions asked

    https://www.facebook.com/100056650073826/posts/pfbid0wAyd9ef4imNsHzjphfMjmSS1z4j91tbrqMQuhv4UAhbLQpKTfUooWS4fdHFNYdS8l/?d=n

    Thread on the economics of the ScotGov solution :

    https://twitter.com/MForstater/status/1561439393461637121
  • We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    For Labour?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Citi predicts UK inflation to hit 18%

    Bye Liz

    never mind Liz, we're all fucked.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    HYUFD said:

    Criminal barristers vote to go on indefinite strike from next month

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62629776

    They came bottom of the 'public support for strikes' table so i'd expect the govt to take the hardlineiest hardline with them
    That's fine. It does, however, mean that Justice will no longer exist because Justice delayed is Justice denied.

    So you are left with the question of what will the Government do to fix the issue as they will now have to do something when previously Raab wasn't doing anything.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    This is really interesting on GPs and energy bills:

    guynewey
    @guynewey
    Reports today that one idea the Government is considering to deal with the winter energy crisis is allowing GPs to 'prescribe' vulnerable patients help with their energy bills.

    Cue universal condemnation. A thread on why I think this is a good idea...

    https://twitter.com/guynewey/status/1561278673604468739
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq
    If I was a member of the Conservative Party, I would find HY excruciatingly embarrassing.
  • We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    For Labour?
    Yes
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Nigelb said:

    Welcome back, @MoonRabbit .

    Thanks.

    I’m back! Like an over excited sewage pipe splurging all over the PB family beach. 😇
    :lol:
  • eekeek Posts: 22,078

    This is really interesting on GPs and energy bills:

    guynewey
    @guynewey
    Reports today that one idea the Government is considering to deal with the winter energy crisis is allowing GPs to 'prescribe' vulnerable patients help with their energy bills.

    Cue universal condemnation. A thread on why I think this is a good idea...

    https://twitter.com/guynewey/status/1561278673604468739

    It's a bad idea for 1 very simply reason.

    GPs are already overworked so what do they stop doing to fill in whatever paperwork is required for these prescriptions.

    Also the software won't exist to do it - and that would take months to create...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,876
    IshmaelZ said:

    Dynamo said:

    The Guardian illustrate their article with a photo of a mural depicting Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in a boxing ring. Sunak is shown wearing gold-coloured gloves and shorts and with a Prada label on his belt. He is not wearing any political colours or flags. Truss is. She is shown wearing red, white, and blue: blue gloves (with the EU symbol), a white belt (with a Claire's label), and red shorts. Just in case anyone didn't get the message, she is also wearing a Union Jack top. Behind Sunak on a corner cushion, the word "Leave" appears; behind Truss, the word "Remain". There are also some cones. They are black and white. The only one with fully visible words is on Sunak's side. It carries the word "The Dark Horse".

    The artist Ciaran Gallagher is from Belfast and can be presumed to be familiar with the use of regalia.

    Those who wish to ponder the question of whether or not the mural is racist should ask what they would think if Sunak were Jewish and similarly depicted in gold gloves with a Prada label and no flag, described as a "dark horse" pitted against Truss wearing clothing in red, white, and blue as well as a Union Jack.

    I think we all know a citizen of nowhere when we see one.
    ‘Ihre papiere, bitte’
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq
    If I was a member of the Conservative Party, I would find HY excruciatingly embarrassing.
    Well you aren't, so why should I care
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Criminal barristers vote to go on indefinite strike from next month

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62629776

    They came bottom of the 'public support for strikes' table so i'd expect the govt to take the hardlineiest hardline with them
    That's fine. It does, however, mean that Justice will no longer exist because Justice delayed is Justice denied.

    So you are left with the question of what will the Government do to fix the issue as they will now have to do something when previously Raab wasn't doing anything.
    Bring in the army. Courts martial lawyers riding in on green goddesses.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698

    Citi predicts UK inflation to hit 18%

    Bye Liz

    Not sure the Queen will have to go
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743

    We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    For Labour?
    Yes
    Did you see yesterday’s Scottish poll?

    Seat projection for Scottish Labour = 1 seat (nc).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356

    HYUFD said:

    Criminal barristers vote to go on indefinite strike from next month

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62629776

    They came bottom of the 'public support for strikes' table so i'd expect the govt to take the hardlineiest hardline with them
    At the bottom end they are maybe underpaid, certainly not at the top end
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,941

    Stocky said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I'm surprised you see Truss as continuity Johnson. I expect Truss to be very unlike Johnson - at least in that she will be more principle-based rather that being populist and, importantly, is prepared to be unpopular. If nothing else it will be a relief from the shopping trolley.
    That does not sound like Liz Truss in the leadership campaign, who has advocated and dropped policies within 48 hours. Call it populism or trolleyism or even common sense but it is hard to justify the epithet principled.
    She has so many principles she can rotate them frequently :wink:
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    FPT @HYUFD in reply to your 2 posts:

    a) I did not say I did not support building a deterrent against Putin. You have tried that one on me twice now. How you are capable of jumping to these illogical conclusions is beyond me. What I said (as did everyone else) is you can not build these big capital items in days and weeks by throwing resources at them. There is always a critical path and something like an aircraft carrier or submarine takes years no matter what resources you have.

    b) Re your link to a stat (oh what a surprise) showing Asian kids doing better in UK schools than white and African kids just shows your usual nonsense. What on earth has that got to do with the point being made:

    i) You were claiming African kids had the IQ of imbeciles based upon a flawed IQ stat and claimed that was why African countries were poorer. That is clearly nonsense and not borne out by the latest stat you produced.

    ii) I am not claiming there isn't a difference between IQ levels of different races. I don't know, but clearly the average African does not have an IQ of a 5 - 7 year old which is what your stat showed and which I was arguing against. Don't change what I am saying because you are losing the argument.

    iii) Again you show a stat and jump to an unfounded conclusion. Just because it shows Indian and Asian kids do better than white kids does not show they have higher IQs. It might do but it also might be due to cultural differences, which I believe is a very well believed premise. In the same way posh white kids are likely to do better than poor white kids which is clearly not race dependent.

    a) It was already shown to you by Jim Miller in a year which would have to be on the cards if the US withdrew from NATO and we had no effective defence against Putin who has the largest nuclear missiles arsenal in the world

    b) If it was solely down to class you would expect posh Asian children to have as big a gap over working class Asians as posh whites do over working class whites but there isn't that gap.

    So now you are saying there are iq differences between different races, I assume you also say there is a huge gap between average results of Chinese pupils and Roma pupils, presumably again due to average iq
    If I was a member of the Conservative Party, I would find HY excruciatingly embarrassing.
    Well you aren't, so why should I care
    Your problem is that even if I was, you still wouldn’t care.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Nigelb said:

    Welcome back, @MoonRabbit .

    Thanks.

    I’m back! Like an over excited sewage pipe splurging all over the PB family beach. 😇
    At least rabbits (very beneficially) recycle their droppings. Others, however ...
  • We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    For Labour?
    Yes
    Did you see yesterday’s Scottish poll?

    Seat projection for Scottish Labour = 1 seat (nc).
    You're rapidly becoming one of the worst posters on this site.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    For Labour?
    Yes
    No con lead this year or probably by next GE

    Have you backed your predix with hard cash, you ask? And I answer no, I have spaffed all my 2022 betting cash, betting on the phatboi's departure happening sooner than it actually did. If I had been less greedy and backed end 2022...
  • Citi predicts UK inflation to hit 18%

    Bye Liz

    Not sure the Queen will have to go
    How you doing matey
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 43,012
    edited August 2022
    Dynamo said:

    The Guardian illustrate their article with a photo of a mural depicting Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in a boxing ring. Sunak is shown wearing gold-coloured gloves and shorts and with a Prada label on his belt. He is not wearing any political colours or flags. Truss is. She is shown wearing red, white, and blue: blue gloves (with the EU symbol), a white belt (with a Claire's label), and red shorts. Just in case anyone didn't get the message, she is also wearing a Union Jack top. Behind Sunak on a corner cushion, the word "Leave" appears; behind Truss, the word "Remain". There are also some cones. They are black and white. The only one with fully visible words is on Sunak's side. It carries the word "The Dark Horse".

    The artist Ciaran Gallagher is from Belfast and can be presumed to be familiar with the use of regalia.

    Those who wish to ponder the question of whether or not the mural is racist should ask what they would think if Sunak were Jewish and similarly depicted in gold gloves with a Prada label and no flag, described as a "dark horse" pitted against Truss wearing clothing in red, white, and blue as well as a Union Jack.

    Well, no one seems to mind that Shaun Wallace on ITV's "The Chase" is called "Das Dark Destroyer".
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,941
    Fishing said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Conservative voters in the shires? ;)
    The BBC's head of diversity - hir (not sure of the preferred pronouns) salary is £250,000 part time, £445,000 on a full time basis.
    Is there an argument that heads of diversity should experience the diversity in their workforce first hand? Thinking at the start of each year (or month) that sets salary to match that of a random employee of the company...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    JUST IN - 2.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas found offshore south of Cyprus, Eni and Total announced.

    About those territorial waters off the sovereign military areas.......
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    Citi predicts UK inflation to hit 18%

    It's just a flesh wound!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Conservative voters in the shires? ;)
    Quite a lot of whom, of course, will not have gas and will use oil, coal or wood fired central heating.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 43,012
    edited August 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Welcome back, @MoonRabbit .

    Thanks.

    I’m back! Like an over excited sewage pipe splurging all over the PB family beach. 😇
    What happened? Were you on holiday?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Criminal barristers vote to go on indefinite strike from next month

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62629776

    They came bottom of the 'public support for strikes' table so i'd expect the govt to take the hardlineiest hardline with them
    That's fine. It does, however, mean that Justice will no longer exist because Justice delayed is Justice denied.

    So you are left with the question of what will the Government do to fix the issue as they will now have to do something when previously Raab wasn't doing anything.
    Bring in the army. Courts martial lawyers riding in on green goddesses.
    Long gone. The tories outsourced military firefighting to Capita.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743

    Citi predicts UK inflation to hit 18%

    Bye Liz

    Not sure the Queen will have to go
    Her Maj is safe, but at what inflation rate does King Charles get kicked out?

    18%?
    28%?
    38%?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    edited August 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Criminal barristers vote to go on indefinite strike from next month

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62629776

    They came bottom of the 'public support for strikes' table so i'd expect the govt to take the hardlineiest hardline with them
    That's fine. It does, however, mean that Justice will no longer exist because Justice delayed is Justice denied.

    So you are left with the question of what will the Government do to fix the issue as they will now have to do something when previously Raab wasn't doing anything.
    Bring in the army. Courts martial lawyers riding in on green goddesses.
    Long gone. The tories outsourced military firefighting to Capita.
    Bloody government even fuck with my pithy ripostes. Arsehats.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    JUST IN - 2.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas found offshore south of Cyprus, Eni and Total announced.

    About those territorial waters off the sovereign military areas.......

    Not sure?

    https://sovereignlimits.com/boundaries/cyprus-united-kingdom-maritime
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    For the Conservatives?

    I look forward with interest and some concern to Boris Johnson's "cleansed of all sin" resurrection in a few months time, and yes, probably a 20% Tory lead.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    David Sheppard
    @OilSheppard
    ·
    1h
    This morning - just this morning - the annual cost of buying wholesale energy for a year has risen by at least £500 for the typical home, if these prices persist.

    Annual bills now pointing well north of £5,000 and even above £6,000

    Government needs a radical plan

    https://twitter.com/OilSheppard
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743

    We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    For Labour?
    Yes
    Did you see yesterday’s Scottish poll?

    Seat projection for Scottish Labour = 1 seat (nc).
    You're rapidly becoming one of the worst posters on this site.
    I’m an equal opportunities Unionist irritator.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,756

    Balfour family papers bought for the nation

    Thousands of items from the family archive of former British Prime Minister Arthur Balfour (1848-1930) have been bought by National Records of Scotland, on behalf of the nation.

    He is best known as the author of the 1917 Balfour Declaration conferring British support for a Jewish homeland in Palestine.

    The Balfour family was very well-connected in scientific, artistic and political circles. Several family members were closely involved with the women’s suffrage movement, perhaps most notably Lady Frances Balfour (1858-1931)…

    Culture Minister Neil Gray said:

    “This purchase safeguards a remarkable collection which offers insights into the life of an influential Scottish family over a huge period of history.

    “The public ownership of the Balfour archive not only ensures that it is preserved whole and in Scotland forever, but that the public and researchers have the opportunity to see and study it.”

    https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/news/2022/balfour-family-papers-bought-for-the-nation

    Quite good news, because they were an important family and corresponded with many notable political figures. However those will be mostly his brother's and nephew's papers, not Arthur Balfour's own. Those are already held by the British Library.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 9,214
    edited August 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    Welcome back, @MoonRabbit .

    Thanks.

    I’m back! Like an over excited sewage pipe splurging all over the PB family beach. 😇
    :lol:
    I havn’t missed anything. Even properly banned I could read PB all the time so saw what you all said about me. And no I’m not a fiction of Leon’s very addled mind, thank you very much whoever said that, I’m a real person, and it’s being my often naive self that got me banned. When I was new to site I actually thought Leon was real person too and flint knapper artist, so tried to order a double dildo, only a real person real with mistake, probably saved in PB archive somewhere 🫣

    And I saw you express your undying love for me Ishmael Z. Thanks for that.

    But you are a bit weird though arn’t you?

  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 313

    Nigelb said:

    Welcome back, @MoonRabbit .

    Thanks.

    I’m back! Like an over excited sewage pipe splurging all over the PB family beach. 😇
    What happened? Were you on holiday?
    Banned yes, but it was clearly my own fault - for a brief moment I turned the leadership race into a lewdership race with my saucy postcard sense of humour - so had long conversation with myself about repeated bans for same over sexed thing to put improvements in place before approaching the admins again, as this is premier betting site not Reddit I told myself that is right thing to do.

    went racing at York and Cyclefree later actually posted the amazing race I had won on, but that made me really yearn to be a PBer again and respond to posts 😭

    So I’m back for ever, I ain’t getting myself banned again. I want to be able to like posts and respond to them. All three ban have been related with too unnecessary and saucy pictures. So no sexy pictures from me, and I pause for thought before each posting, so no ban.
    Welcome back!
  • We will see a 20 point lead before the next GE

    For Labour?
    Yes
    Did you see yesterday’s Scottish poll?

    Seat projection for Scottish Labour = 1 seat (nc).
    You're rapidly becoming one of the worst posters on this site.
    I’m an equal opportunities Unionist irritator.
    You contribute literally nothing of value.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,650
    Carnyx said:

    JUST IN - 2.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas found offshore south of Cyprus, Eni and Total announced.

    About those territorial waters off the sovereign military areas.......

    Not sure?

    https://sovereignlimits.com/boundaries/cyprus-united-kingdom-maritime
    Maybe we get a nibble!
    Of course we are well placed to offer security to the Cypriots in extracting it in return for a little jus jus
  • Nigelb said:

    Welcome back, @MoonRabbit .

    Thanks.

    I’m back! Like an over excited sewage pipe splurging all over the PB family beach. 😇
    What happened? Were you on holiday?
    Banned yes, but it was clearly my own fault - for a brief moment I turned the leadership race into a lewdership race with my saucy postcard sense of humour - so had long conversation with myself about repeated bans for same over sexed thing to put improvements in place before approaching the admins again, as this is premier betting site not Reddit I told myself that is right thing to do.

    went racing at York and Cyclefree later actually posted the amazing race I had won on, but that made me really yearn to be a PBer again and respond to posts 😭

    So I’m back for ever, I ain’t getting myself banned again. I want to be able to like posts and respond to them. All three ban have been related with too unnecessary and saucy pictures. So no sexy pictures from me, and I pause for thought before each posting, so no ban.
    Well, saucy postcards or not, good to have you back :)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,743

    JUST IN - 2.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas found offshore south of Cyprus, Eni and Total announced.

    About those territorial waters off the sovereign military areas.......

    In EU waters? Good luck with that.

    Delighted found off south coast and not the occupied ones.
  • ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Conservative voters in the shires? ;)
    Quite a lot of whom, of course, will not have gas and will use oil, coal or wood fired central heating.
    "Throw another LibDem on the fire, Jeeves."
This discussion has been closed.