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LAB analysis suggests a double-digit bounce for PM Truss – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 28 in General
imageLAB analysis suggests a double-digit bounce for PM Truss – politicalbetting.com

An internal Labour analysis being reported by the Guardian is suggesting what I have been predicting, and betting on for several weeks, Truss will get a significant new PM bounce in the polls. The report by Pippa Crerar notes:

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 21,799
    Possibly a month - until the first energy bills arrive in October.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,735
    The new price cap is announced before Truss is elected. I think that destroys any sort of poll bounce unless the gov't REALLY turns on the taps at the emergency budget. They might I suppose.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,382
    I expect a Truss honeymoon to deliver a decent poll boost for the Tories and put them in the lead - but I imagine there is some expectations management going on here by Labour.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,126
    She might squeeze out an outlier poll lead or two but she won't be PM on the morning after the GE. Tories are gone.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307
    edited August 22
    Hold on. Wasn't Pippa Crerar the Mirror's star reporter who broke Cummingsgate and Partygate?

    ETA When did she jump ship to the Guardian? I'm surprised it could outbid the Mirror.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Morning all
    The fact this 'leaked' means its expectations management. Therefore labour i suspect think the bounce will be much smaller or none at all so they can say 'she's slready holed below the waterline'
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Hold on. Wasn't Pippa Crerar the Mirror's star reporter who broke Cummingsgate and Partygate?

    Moved a couple of weeks ago
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.08 Liz Truss 93%
    13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.07 Liz Truss 93%
    13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,989
    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307
    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    Maybe. In following the leadership race, it is hard to be confident that what Truss and Sunak propose is the same as what their supporters support.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,817
    Here's the latest Wikipedia Wriggly Line;



    The current average is L41 C31, so it needs a five point bounce for proper crossover, though the odd Conservative lead would happen on a smaller bounce. If Truss can't manage that, she's stuffed.

    Meanwhile, I don't entirely trust the recent widening of the gap- the line takes a while to settle down. But it would be amusing if the nature and length of the campaign means that the Truss bounce dissipates before she even takes office.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    edited August 22
    Bomb found in bag at Stockholm central station.

    (The GE is in three weeks.)

    https://www.tv4.se/artikel/bGDORHwMftpgyHYgwdvgN/vaeskfynd-innehoell-skarpladdad-bomb
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    Con Maj shortened when Mike posted this. 😄
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,726

    Hold on. Wasn't Pippa Crerar the Mirror's star reporter who broke Cummingsgate and Partygate?

    ETA When did she jump ship to the Guardian? I'm surprised it could outbid the Mirror.

    I don't know about money, but I'd have thought being the political editor at the Guardian is a more prestigious job.

    Wasn't she also interviewed for the BBC Political Editor job? That always seemed like a non-starter.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,126
    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    The last five Voting Intention findings for the Scottish Tories (reverse chronological order):

    20%
    19%
    18%
    19%
    19%

    Result last time: 25.1%

    In combination with SCon to SLD swingback, the Ross team is in for a spanking if FM Truss goes for a snap GE.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,307

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Trouble is, if you count back from a mid-December election, like 2019, then Liz Truss will have only six or seven weeks to study the polls, make a decision and call the election. And while Boris is said to favour winter elections, the conventional wisdom is spring.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited August 22

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Speculation encouraged by Labour in the hope that like the inexperienced and badly advised Brown she will go along with it and then look like a bottler, or go ahead and actually hold one and lose it.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,799
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,126

    Con Maj shortened when Mike posted this. 😄

    Although a Labour majority (3.85) is still shorter than a Conservative one. That's really something when you think about it. And what a massive switch in political mood and momentum from a year ago. Amazing really.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,676
    eek said:

    Possibly a month - until the first energy bills arrive in October.

    If Truss sticks to the line that the energy price cap cannot be frozen, I cannot see her getting much of a bounce.

    If she flips to the LD/Lab policy then she may get enough of a bounce fro some Tory leads.

    But the October energy price cap is announced this Friday, so there's not much time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 19,983
    eek said:

    Possibly a month - until the first energy bills arrive in October.

    Why is anyone switching on their heating in October? It's almost never cold enough to do so.
  • If "Brexit is done", why the fuck do people keep going on about it, and why does it hijack so many threads on here?

    WWII is done but people never stopped going on about it.

    Heck we still get discussions going on about Roman conflicts.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,676
    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    Possibly a month - until the first energy bills arrive in October.

    Why is anyone switching on their heating in October? It's almost never cold enough to do so.
    Unrelated. The revised direct debits will hit in October as the energy companies factor in the latest price cap.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    On topic. I’m betting against you Mike.

    Firstly - Labour would say that wouldn’t they “temporary Tory poll leads from new leader bounce, we told you that would happen, nothing to explain here BJO.” Exactly the sort of preemptive chaff we all would push out there?

    Secondly, it’s an old Guardian story now, since this came out last week the polls have moved. The “swing back built in” Opinium was incredible, it’s nearly back to double digit lead before swing back built in. Something is suddenly going on that makes a new leader bounce this time unlikely to close the gap. The voters have listened to the Tory’s and made their minds up on next general election now, giving Boris replacement the poll plunge not the bounce? The week the polls put the writing up on the wall? How about No Tory poll lead till 2025 as an interesting betting tip?

    Yes Tory lead soon based on history. Yes but no because history never had Bubble from AbFab, going to the palace to touch hands.

    To paraphrase Alex Ferguson - this last decade of British politics, bloody hell.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    The honeymoon lead is not really the issue. The issue is can she hold the lead for 6 weeks if she calls a snap election?

    If she does not call a snap election then I think she and the current "Conservatives" are doomed. On the plus side, they can spend electoral oblivion purging all the Kippers and returning to sane politics.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,254
    kinabalu said:

    Con Maj shortened when Mike posted this. 😄

    Although a Labour majority (3.85) is still shorter than a Conservative one. That's really something when you think about it. And what a massive switch in political mood and momentum from a year ago. Amazing really.
    We've discovered that a government following a "one law for us but another law for you, do as I say not as I do" strategy loses trust and then support.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,322
    BTW - that piccie of Liz Truss... what a sour expression!

    What the heck were the Tories doing in Belfast anyway? They have no mandate in N Ireland, they never stand for election there.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,428
    Her face looks like she's just finished licking piss of those nettles on the right.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,799

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    IshmaelZ said:

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Speculation encouraged by Labour in the hope that like the inexperienced and badly advised Brown she will go along with it and then look like a bottler, or go ahead and actually hold one and lose it.
    Brown bottled it because of the horrific Scottish Labour internal polling. They would’ve been gubbed.

    Truss has the big advantage that she doesn’t give a shit about Scotland.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522

    If "Brexit is done", why the fuck do people keep going on about it, and why does it hijack so many threads on here?

    WWII is done but people never stopped going on about it.

    Heck we still get discussions going on about Roman conflicts.
    Does it not need to the two sides of the argument to be United to be done though? I mean, if you voted remain and hate Brexit, you will demand to see all the promised financial benefits before calling it done in your own mind, wouldn’t you?

    Surely for Brexit to be done, all those remainers in the Blue Wall will have to vote Tory again, as key measurements of it being fully done and dusted?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,735
    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,799
    edited August 22

    The honeymoon lead is not really the issue. The issue is can she hold the lead for 6 weeks if she calls a snap election?

    If she does not call a snap election then I think she and the current "Conservatives" are doomed. On the plus side, they can spend electoral oblivion purging all the Kippers and returning to sane politics.

    In electoral oblivion I suspect they will do the exact opposite and purge the remaining pieces of sanity.... It will be their equivalent of Labour post 2017 - we lost because we simply weren't left / right wing enough...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    kinabalu said:

    Con Maj shortened when Mike posted this. 😄

    Although a Labour majority (3.85) is still shorter than a Conservative one. That's really something when you think about it. And what a massive switch in political mood and momentum from a year ago. Amazing really.
    Huh? Lab Maj is 4.33 Ladbrokes.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Has the Truss Team defined what a “temporary moratorium on energy levies” is yet? It’s not a six month freeze paid for by raising extra windfall taxes is it?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    Just sell off one of your second homes.

    Or send the issue to a cheaper prep school.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 22

    The last five Voting Intention findings for the Scottish Tories (reverse chronological order):

    20%
    19%
    18%
    19%
    19%

    Result last time: 25.1%

    In combination with SCon to SLD swingback, the Ross team is in for a spanking if FM Truss goes for a snap GE.

    Is there SCon to SLD swingback? The SLD average over the same 5 polls is 8%, down 1.5% on last time.
    Clearly SCon are struggling but i dont see any SLD revival, there was no signal in the locals for them coming back in the borders or aberdeenshire where Tories have their relative strength? Nor particularly in former strong areas like Argyll?
  • FPT @DougSeal
    "For the final time. It's not an unwritten constitution. It's uncodified. It does not "evolve", it is changed by consent, and, even if it did, that does not mean making shit up as you go along. The Cabinet Manual beats a BBC report. Just admit it when you're wrong. It's not hard for most of us."

    It's a shame you can't admit you're wrong. The Cabinet Manual absolutely recognises the principle of a caretaker government, of which we presently have one, furthermore it absolutely and explicitly recognises the principle that conventions play in our constitution. Conventions can and do evolve over time. The Cabinet Manual even explicitly recognises conventions in its own full title.

    Whether the role of a caretaker Prime Minister existed in 1909 or 1783 or any other year is moot, the principle that it exists has long been recognised as a convention and even if it didn't formerly exist it has been formally recognised by the Cabinet in 2022 when they declared that Boris Johnson was only staying on as a caretaker Prime Minister. Their decision being the next logical step in the evolution of the role that had already been recognised.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Trouble is, if you count back from a mid-December election, like 2019, then Liz Truss will have only six or seven weeks to study the polls, make a decision and call the election. And while Boris is said to favour winter elections, the conventional wisdom is spring.
    Six or seven weeks is plenty of Tory thinking time.

    It significantly exceeds The Oaf’s six or seven seconds.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,880
    A big week for Ukraine, and a bad feeling that their Independence Day on Wednesday, the six-month anniversary of the start of the invasion, is going to be a target for a mad Russian leader who sees his army collapsing in front of him, and no way out that isn’t totally humiliating.

    The Ukranian attacks on Crimea last week, where many middle-class Russians were on holiday, is waking the average Russian up to what’s actually been going on for the past six months.

    There was a call yesterday between Johnson, Biden, Macron and Sholz, who noted Russian escalations in fighting around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. I really, really hope that Putin - or at least someone in the inner circle at the Kremlin - has thought through what the Western reaction would be to the war going nuclear.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited August 22

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Trouble is, if you count back from a mid-December election, like 2019, then Liz Truss will have only six or seven weeks to study the polls, make a decision and call the election. And while Boris is said to favour winter elections, the conventional wisdom is spring.
    If she goes early it would probably be feb or march if any initial bounce holds the line through the winter
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    Possibly a month - until the first energy bills arrive in October.

    Why is anyone switching on their heating in October? It's almost never cold enough to do so.
    One presumes they'll still have heated water, cooked etc
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,817
    eek said:

    The honeymoon lead is not really the issue. The issue is can she hold the lead for 6 weeks if she calls a snap election?

    If she does not call a snap election then I think she and the current "Conservatives" are doomed. On the plus side, they can spend electoral oblivion purging all the Kippers and returning to sane politics.

    In electoral oblivion I suspect they will do the exact opposite and purge the remaining pieces of sanity.... It will be their equivalent of Labour post 2017 - we lost because we simply weren't left / right wing enough...
    That seems to be part of the grief cycle, and has got worse since party members have had the decisive say. The striking thing is how quickly Labour have revived.

    The Conservatives won't be able to win by going down the Republican rabbithole; that only works with massive gerrymandering, so we're safe for now. But they will give it a damn good try (unless she blows up, I'd have thought Badenoch is a shoe-in to be LotO 2024-9 before going down to a hefty defeat.)

    A bit like mammals 70 million years ago, the next-but-one Conservative PM is scuttling around largely unnoticed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,977

    The last five Voting Intention findings for the Scottish Tories (reverse chronological order):

    20%
    19%
    18%
    19%
    19%

    Result last time: 25.1%

    In combination with SCon to SLD swingback, the Ross team is in for a spanking if FM Truss goes for a snap GE.

    Nothing like a spot of the old flage, dear boy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,977

    Andy_JS said:

    eek said:

    Possibly a month - until the first energy bills arrive in October.

    Why is anyone switching on their heating in October? It's almost never cold enough to do so.
    One presumes they'll still have heated water, cooked etc
    Gets this thing called "dark" at night, too. More so from now.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,428
    Sandpit said:



    One of few things that Trump was right about, was that the US and UK were the only countries pulling their weight in NATO, and that everyone else needed to meet the 2% defence spending target - especially the Germans.

    Poland, Greece, Slovakia and all of the Baltics spend more than 2%.

    The UK cheats by counting pension payments (including mine) toward defence spending.

    In the Woodward books, the veracity of which have never been challenged, Trump comes across as absolutely obsessed with eliminating US defence commitements abroad. He was only prevented from withdrawing 30,000 troops from South Korea by Gary Cohn taking the paperwork off his desk before he could sign it.

    In his next term when he goes full "Dark MAGA" there are going to be far fewer constraints on his caprice.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,726
    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    I can.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,522
    edited August 22

    Here's the latest Wikipedia Wriggly Line;



    The current average is L41 C31, so it needs a five point bounce for proper crossover, though the odd Conservative lead would happen on a smaller bounce. If Truss can't manage that, she's stuffed.

    Meanwhile, I don't entirely trust the recent widening of the gap- the line takes a while to settle down. But it would be amusing if the nature and length of the campaign means that the Truss bounce dissipates before she even takes office.

    I think it was William Glenn who posted, it’s like making Bubble from abfab Prime Minister. So each time I say it I expect he’s collecting my £10.

    You post a lot of balanced sense Stew. How to explain the graffs sudden change in directory? Wooly did straight away. Labour came up with a Cap Freeze - the voters loved it, even Tory ones by huge margin - Team Truss said no, tax cuts instead.

    As Times report today the Blukip Tory Party would vote Boris as their leader rather than one of this fresh leadership elections candidates, this the truth proving this blukip electorate could not make a decision based on any polling or political sense or sanity

    But it’s not just “sod the poor 2/3rds of the country, we want tax cuts”, because there are far too many reason why replacing Boris with Truss is most damaging move for the Tory party itself - what first leaps out, Truss and Kwarteng have no communication skills whatsoever. They are wooden, unlikable, a bit weird. Even if they chose not to anger the electorate and instead adopt the electorates preferred “cap freeze”, they still wouldn’t get a bounce, as they can’t sell policies, popular or unpopular. They are the sort of people who would say Good Morning to you and it would grate, wind you up. The Tory members are daft to ignore it will be prime minister and chancellor without persuasion skills, without the ability to gain trust and followers, and more importantly deflect blame for things. Kwarteng has already acknowledged public spending cuts would be required if tax cuts were implemented, but refuse to say what cuts, there you go, voters won’t stand that game for very long, as the crashing polls show. And you know how voters will quickly tire of their Prime Ministers weekly gaffs, not just hate her policies.

    So PM Truss, how could this happen? If Raab hadn’t buggered up Afghan crisis, Truss wouldn’t have been overpromoted to Foreign Secretary. It’s pure Chancey Gardner all this. Or that moment in I, Claudius when the Imperial Guard realise no emperor no imperial guard with extra benefits, so they pull Claudius out from under the table and put him on the throne, so the Brexit Guard can carry on lording it.

    Sorry, did I mention Brexit?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,497

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Trouble is, if you count back from a mid-December election, like 2019, then Liz Truss will have only six or seven weeks to study the polls, make a decision and call the election. And while Boris is said to favour winter elections, the conventional wisdom is spring.
    I think there's also the issue of what the election is for. Johnson spent some time in 2019, with the prorogation and other shenanigans, preparing the ground so that he had a clear purpose for the GE - to Get Brexit Done, to clear the logjam in Parliament.

    When May called an early election what was it for? Essentially she asked the electorate for a blank cheque. The purpose was for her benefit, not the electorates.

    The same would be true of an early election now, unless Truss had tried to implement a policy and been blocked by Parliament from doing so. The voters would see that the election was for her benefit, not theirs, and vote accordingly.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,504

    If "Brexit is done", why the fuck do people keep going on about it, and why does it hijack so many threads on here?

    WWII is done but people never stopped going on about it.

    Heck we still get discussions going on about Roman conflicts.
    True enough, but we don't get WWII and Roman conflicts every sodding day.

    Brexit, on the other hand......
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,126

    kinabalu said:

    Con Maj shortened when Mike posted this. 😄

    Although a Labour majority (3.85) is still shorter than a Conservative one. That's really something when you think about it. And what a massive switch in political mood and momentum from a year ago. Amazing really.
    Huh? Lab Maj is 4.33 Ladbrokes.
    Betfair exchange for me. I'm banned from all the trad bookies.

    3.95 on there right now.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243

    The last five Voting Intention findings for the Scottish Tories (reverse chronological order):

    20%
    19%
    18%
    19%
    19%

    Result last time: 25.1%

    In combination with SCon to SLD swingback, the Ross team is in for a spanking if FM Truss goes for a snap GE.

    Is there SCon to SLD swingback? The SLD average over the same 5 polls is 8%, down 1.5% on last time.
    Clearly SCon are struggling but i dont see any SLD revival, there was no signal in the locals for them coming back in the borders or aberdeenshire where Tories have their relative strength? Nor particularly in former strong areas like Argyll?
    There was a 2.85% SCon to SLD swing in Aberdeenshire.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Aberdeenshire_Council_election

    Can’t find the figures for D&G or Borders at short notice.

    But please note that:

    1. SLD almost always outperform their mid-term VI figures.
    2. The SLDs have an extraordinarily uneven vote distribution, which all pollsters struggle with
    3. A UK GE heavily focussed on the Brexit fiasco will drive many folk back to the SLDs
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,977

    If "Brexit is done", why the fuck do people keep going on about it, and why does it hijack so many threads on here?

    WWII is done but people never stopped going on about it.

    Heck we still get discussions going on about Roman conflicts.
    True enough, but we don't get WWII and Roman conflicts every sodding day.

    Brexit, on the other hand......
    A nice attempt by BR to claim that Brexit is ancient history. Aye, right, like the Battle of the Boyne and Brexit are ancient history in NI.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,289
    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    Almost every freelance job I see advertised these days states outside IR35, so I assume it's fairly useless anyway at this point, as the lawyers have found a way round it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,084
    Welcome back, @MoonRabbit .
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,504
    The most recent opinion polls don't suggest that The End of Boris has produced an uptick in Tory fortunes. Given that the public have known for some time that either Truss or Sunak will be the next PM, and given that the public (not Tory voters) don't seem to strongly favour one over the other, I'm not persuaded that Truss's accession will lead to a significant change in the polls.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,817

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Trouble is, if you count back from a mid-December election, like 2019, then Liz Truss will have only six or seven weeks to study the polls, make a decision and call the election. And while Boris is said to favour winter elections, the conventional wisdom is spring.
    I think there's also the issue of what the election is for. Johnson spent some time in 2019, with the prorogation and other shenanigans, preparing the ground so that he had a clear purpose for the GE - to Get Brexit Done, to clear the logjam in Parliament.

    When May called an early election what was it for? Essentially she asked the electorate for a blank cheque. The purpose was for her benefit, not the electorates.

    The same would be true of an early election now, unless Truss had tried to implement a policy and been blocked by Parliament from doing so. The voters would see that the election was for her benefit, not theirs, and vote accordingly.
    And if Truss can't get a policy through Parliament with a majority of whatever it is these days, she's a bit rubbish isn't she?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    The last five Voting Intention findings for the Scottish Tories (reverse chronological order):

    20%
    19%
    18%
    19%
    19%

    Result last time: 25.1%

    In combination with SCon to SLD swingback, the Ross team is in for a spanking if FM Truss goes for a snap GE.

    Is there SCon to SLD swingback? The SLD average over the same 5 polls is 8%, down 1.5% on last time.
    Clearly SCon are struggling but i dont see any SLD revival, there was no signal in the locals for them coming back in the borders or aberdeenshire where Tories have their relative strength? Nor particularly in former strong areas like Argyll?
    There was a 2.85% SCon to SLD swing in Aberdeenshire.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Aberdeenshire_Council_election

    Can’t find the figures for D&G or Borders at short notice.

    But please note that:

    1. SLD almost always outperform their mid-term VI figures.
    2. The SLDs have an extraordinarily uneven vote distribution, which all pollsters struggle with
    3. A UK GE heavily focussed on the Brexit fiasco will drive many folk back to the SLDs
    Yes but the swing was due to the Tory vote falling, not an SLD revival. I don't doubt at all the Tories will struggle at a GE (maybe hold 2 or 3 as it stands) but there really isnt anything to suggest an SLD revival generally, nor versus the STories specifically as we stand. Doesnt mean it won't happen but the yes/no nat/unionist thing will vastly outweigh it

    D and G they got 3.3% in the locals (up a touch but negligible support)
    Borders 9.6% again up a little
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,084
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:



    One of few things that Trump was right about, was that the US and UK were the only countries pulling their weight in NATO, and that everyone else needed to meet the 2% defence spending target - especially the Germans.

    Poland, Greece, Slovakia and all of the Baltics spend more than 2%.

    The UK cheats by counting pension payments (including mine) toward defence spending.

    In the Woodward books, the veracity of which have never been challenged, Trump comes across as absolutely obsessed with eliminating US defence commitements abroad. He was only prevented from withdrawing 30,000 troops from South Korea by Gary Cohn taking the paperwork off his desk before he could sign it.

    In his next term when he goes full "Dark MAGA" there are going to be far fewer constraints on his caprice.
    Which is to assume a next term.
    At the moment, about as likely as his first jail term.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,880

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Trouble is, if you count back from a mid-December election, like 2019, then Liz Truss will have only six or seven weeks to study the polls, make a decision and call the election. And while Boris is said to favour winter elections, the conventional wisdom is spring.
    I think there's also the issue of what the election is for. Johnson spent some time in 2019, with the prorogation and other shenanigans, preparing the ground so that he had a clear purpose for the GE - to Get Brexit Done, to clear the logjam in Parliament.

    When May called an early election what was it for? Essentially she asked the electorate for a blank cheque. The purpose was for her benefit, not the electorates.

    The same would be true of an early election now, unless Truss had tried to implement a policy and been blocked by Parliament from doing so. The voters would see that the election was for her benefit, not theirs, and vote accordingly.
    Indeed so. Right now, she will come to office with a 76-seat majority, which would require quite the rebellion to stop her legislation going through. That only happens if three dozen Sunak supporters cross the floor and vote with the Opposition, which would bring back bad memories of 2019.

    All of which is quickly going to be irrelevant, as the government will be getting hammered in the polls over energy bills, and won’t want an election until autumn 2024 once the economy is recovering.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,497

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Trouble is, if you count back from a mid-December election, like 2019, then Liz Truss will have only six or seven weeks to study the polls, make a decision and call the election. And while Boris is said to favour winter elections, the conventional wisdom is spring.
    I think there's also the issue of what the election is for. Johnson spent some time in 2019, with the prorogation and other shenanigans, preparing the ground so that he had a clear purpose for the GE - to Get Brexit Done, to clear the logjam in Parliament.

    When May called an early election what was it for? Essentially she asked the electorate for a blank cheque. The purpose was for her benefit, not the electorates.

    The same would be true of an early election now, unless Truss had tried to implement a policy and been blocked by Parliament from doing so. The voters would see that the election was for her benefit, not theirs, and vote accordingly.
    And if Truss can't get a policy through Parliament with a majority of whatever it is these days, she's a bit rubbish isn't she?
    Yes, I can't conceive of anything that she couldn't pass through the Commons, that would also be strongly supported by the public.

    She has a majority. She doesn't need a personal mandate. There's a lot that needs doing - why spend six weeks on an election campaign? Get on with it, or get out of the way.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243

    The last five Voting Intention findings for the Scottish Tories (reverse chronological order):

    20%
    19%
    18%
    19%
    19%

    Result last time: 25.1%

    In combination with SCon to SLD swingback, the Ross team is in for a spanking if FM Truss goes for a snap GE.

    Is there SCon to SLD swingback? The SLD average over the same 5 polls is 8%, down 1.5% on last time.
    Clearly SCon are struggling but i dont see any SLD revival, there was no signal in the locals for them coming back in the borders or aberdeenshire where Tories have their relative strength? Nor particularly in former strong areas like Argyll?
    There was a 2.85% SCon to SLD swing in Aberdeenshire.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Aberdeenshire_Council_election

    Can’t find the figures for D&G or Borders at short notice.

    But please note that:

    1. SLD almost always outperform their mid-term VI figures.
    2. The SLDs have an extraordinarily uneven vote distribution, which all pollsters struggle with
    3. A UK GE heavily focussed on the Brexit fiasco will drive many folk back to the SLDs
    Yes but the swing was due to the Tory vote falling, not an SLD revival. I don't doubt at all the Tories will struggle at a GE (maybe hold 2 or 3 as it stands) but there really isnt anything to suggest an SLD revival generally, nor versus the STories specifically as we stand. Doesnt mean it won't happen but the yes/no nat/unionist thing will vastly outweigh it

    D and G they got 3.3% in the locals (up a touch but negligible support)
    Borders 9.6% again up a little
    All 6 Scottish Tory seats are marginals. Even modest SCon to SLD tactical unwind could unseat the lot. And that’s before you even consider the likelihood of local SLab to SNP tactical voting.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,599
    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    Sandpit said:

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Trouble is, if you count back from a mid-December election, like 2019, then Liz Truss will have only six or seven weeks to study the polls, make a decision and call the election. And while Boris is said to favour winter elections, the conventional wisdom is spring.
    I think there's also the issue of what the election is for. Johnson spent some time in 2019, with the prorogation and other shenanigans, preparing the ground so that he had a clear purpose for the GE - to Get Brexit Done, to clear the logjam in Parliament.

    When May called an early election what was it for? Essentially she asked the electorate for a blank cheque. The purpose was for her benefit, not the electorates.

    The same would be true of an early election now, unless Truss had tried to implement a policy and been blocked by Parliament from doing so. The voters would see that the election was for her benefit, not theirs, and vote accordingly.
    Indeed so. Right now, she will come to office with a 76-seat majority, which would require quite the rebellion to stop her legislation going through. That only happens if three dozen Sunak supporters cross the floor and vote with the Opposition, which would bring back bad memories of 2019.

    All of which is quickly going to be irrelevant, as the government will be getting hammered in the polls over energy bills, and won’t want an election until autumn 2024 once the economy is recovering.
    Economy recovering autumn 2024?!?

    2034 yes.

    2024 no way.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,118
    edited August 22
    IshmaelZ said:

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Speculation encouraged by Labour in the hope that like the inexperienced and badly advised Brown she will go along with it and then look like a bottler, or go ahead and actually hold one and lose it.
    Yeah, it's pretty transparent, isn't it? No woder people who want Sir Keir in Number Ten ASAP, like Dickson, are ramping it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    Driver said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Speculation encouraged by Labour in the hope that like the inexperienced and badly advised Brown she will go along with it and then look like a bottler, or go ahead and actually hold one and lose it.
    Yeah, it's pretty transparent, isn't it? No woder people who want Sir Keir in Number Ten ASAP, like OGH and Dickson, are ramping it.
    Yeah, that’s me: ginormous Sir Keir ramper 😄

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,977

    BTW - that piccie of Liz Truss... what a sour expression!

    What the heck were the Tories doing in Belfast anyway? They have no mandate in N Ireland, they never stand for election there.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Conservatives

    Don't blame you, though:

    'The Northern Ireland Conservatives is a section of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party that operates in Northern Ireland. The party won 0.03% of the vote in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election and 0.7% of the vote in the 2019 United Kingdom General election in Northern Ireland.'

    These are worse GE figures than the MRLP where it stands, though the latter is too sensible to try to stand in NI.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,118

    Driver said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Speculation encouraged by Labour in the hope that like the inexperienced and badly advised Brown she will go along with it and then look like a bottler, or go ahead and actually hold one and lose it.
    Yeah, it's pretty transparent, isn't it? No woder people who want Sir Keir in Number Ten ASAP, like Dickson, are ramping it.
    Yeah, that’s me: ginormous Sir Keir ramper 😄

    You can't honestly deny that you want Sir Keir to replace whichever-Tory in Number Ten ASAP, can you?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    Carnyx said:

    BTW - that piccie of Liz Truss... what a sour expression!

    What the heck were the Tories doing in Belfast anyway? They have no mandate in N Ireland, they never stand for election there.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Conservatives

    Don't blame you, though:

    'The Northern Ireland Conservatives is a section of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party that operates in Northern Ireland. The party won 0.03% of the vote in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election and 0.7% of the vote in the 2019 United Kingdom General election in Northern Ireland.'

    These are worse GE figures than the MRLP where it stands, though the latter is too sensible to try to stand in NI.
    There are several MRLPs in N Ireland. The John Looney variant would just be one among the crowd.

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,008
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Price cap £6,000 by April. Who on earth can afford that.

    I can.
    Have you got a private nuclear generator? 👍
  • If "Brexit is done", why the fuck do people keep going on about it, and why does it hijack so many threads on here?

    WWII is done but people never stopped going on about it.

    Heck we still get discussions going on about Roman conflicts.
    True enough, but we don't get WWII and Roman conflicts every sodding day.

    Brexit, on the other hand......
    Post-war conflicts existed for a long time post-war. Post-Brexit conflicts could last just as long.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,150
    "We have a zombie government and that's the root of the problem."

    Sir Keir Starmer says energy bills will 'go through the roof unless action is taken', as Labour call for a price freeze paid for by a windfall tax on oil and gas companies.

    https://trib.al/Rx0iR33

    📺 Sky 501 https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1561655797448380424/video/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,150
    Brexit is done

    "The luxury sector, consumer electronics and fashion have all had issues with Brexit."

    Fascinating research - especially on Asian markets pivoting towards the EU for luxury goods. Ironically, the exact opposite effect to what Brexit promised. ~AA

    https://internetretailing.net/growth-2000/editorial-just-what-is-the-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-retailers/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    The last five Voting Intention findings for the Scottish Tories (reverse chronological order):

    20%
    19%
    18%
    19%
    19%

    Result last time: 25.1%

    In combination with SCon to SLD swingback, the Ross team is in for a spanking if FM Truss goes for a snap GE.

    Is there SCon to SLD swingback? The SLD average over the same 5 polls is 8%, down 1.5% on last time.
    Clearly SCon are struggling but i dont see any SLD revival, there was no signal in the locals for them coming back in the borders or aberdeenshire where Tories have their relative strength? Nor particularly in former strong areas like Argyll?
    There was a 2.85% SCon to SLD swing in Aberdeenshire.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Aberdeenshire_Council_election

    Can’t find the figures for D&G or Borders at short notice.

    But please note that:

    1. SLD almost always outperform their mid-term VI figures.
    2. The SLDs have an extraordinarily uneven vote distribution, which all pollsters struggle with
    3. A UK GE heavily focussed on the Brexit fiasco will drive many folk back to the SLDs
    Yes but the swing was due to the Tory vote falling, not an SLD revival. I don't doubt at all the Tories will struggle at a GE (maybe hold 2 or 3 as it stands) but there really isnt anything to suggest an SLD revival generally, nor versus the STories specifically as we stand. Doesnt mean it won't happen but the yes/no nat/unionist thing will vastly outweigh it

    D and G they got 3.3% in the locals (up a touch but negligible support)
    Borders 9.6% again up a little
    All 6 Scottish Tory seats are marginals. Even modest SCon to SLD tactical unwind could unseat the lot. And that’s before you even consider the likelihood of local SLab to SNP tactical voting.
    They'll struggle, yes. But i dont think SCon to SLD unwind will be much more than a very minor factor, its possible it tips the scales in a really tight West Aberdeenshire or Berwickshire result.
    Lab SNP tacticals, yep, much more of a factor in the rest
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    The problem is that IR35 is lipstick on a pig. The problem comes from NI and a sensible long-term solution to abolish it would be better.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Speculation encouraged by Labour in the hope that like the inexperienced and badly advised Brown she will go along with it and then look like a bottler, or go ahead and actually hold one and lose it.
    Yeah, it's pretty transparent, isn't it? No woder people who want Sir Keir in Number Ten ASAP, like Dickson, are ramping it.
    Yeah, that’s me: ginormous Sir Keir ramper 😄

    You can't honestly deny that you want Sir Keir to replace whichever-Tory in Number Ten ASAP, can you?
    I do most vigorously deny it.

    Red Tories.
    Blue Tories.
    Same stench.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,118

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Speculation encouraged by Labour in the hope that like the inexperienced and badly advised Brown she will go along with it and then look like a bottler, or go ahead and actually hold one and lose it.
    Yeah, it's pretty transparent, isn't it? No woder people who want Sir Keir in Number Ten ASAP, like Dickson, are ramping it.
    Yeah, that’s me: ginormous Sir Keir ramper 😄

    You can't honestly deny that you want Sir Keir to replace whichever-Tory in Number Ten ASAP, can you?
    I do most vigorously deny it.

    Red Tories.
    Blue Tories.
    Same stench.
    Then you need to look at yourself, because it's clear from your posts that you really believe otherwise.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,799
    edited August 22

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    Can't fault that - and the killer bit isn't even the tax, it's the fact that you can't claim expenses which suddenly makes the contract in London / Aberdeen completely uneconomic.

    Now I've had a standard solution for years regarding this because we need a means of separating highly skilled freelancers from general abuse of low paid workers. And the solution really isn't that difficult (although it's a political mare) - where the day rate is over £x an hour (where £x is approximately £40-50 an hour) the worker can be self employed / work through a limited company outside IR35. Below that it should be PAYE..... I suggested it as part of the expenses consultation back in 2015 when this end game became obvious but you can see why it's politically an issue...

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    - “… comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the upswing and call a snap general election.“

    I am of the firm conviction that a snap GE is her only chance.

    Year of next UK GE:

    2022 16/1
    2023 5/1
    2024 or later 2/7

    2022 has got to be worth fifty quid at that preposterously generous price?

    Speculation encouraged by Labour in the hope that like the inexperienced and badly advised Brown she will go along with it and then look like a bottler, or go ahead and actually hold one and lose it.
    Yeah, it's pretty transparent, isn't it? No woder people who want Sir Keir in Number Ten ASAP, like Dickson, are ramping it.
    Yeah, that’s me: ginormous Sir Keir ramper 😄

    You can't honestly deny that you want Sir Keir to replace whichever-Tory in Number Ten ASAP, can you?
    I do most vigorously deny it.

    Red Tories.
    Blue Tories.
    Same stench.
    Then you need to look at yourself, because it's clear from your posts that you really believe otherwise.
    You’ve clearly missed my popular “Keir Starmer is a dud” series. I like to keep my range refreshed.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,799

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    The problem is that IR35 is lipstick on a pig. The problem comes from NI and a sensible long-term solution to abolish it would be better.
    Too much money in it and no chance that removing it would result in workers receiving big enough pay increases to ensure they aren't worse off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,735
    Taz said:
    Households can only dream of 18.6% inflation if those energy estimates next year are correct.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,880

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    The problem is that IR35 is lipstick on a pig. The problem comes from NI and a sensible long-term solution to abolish it would be better.
    Employer NI is quite literally a tax on jobs, and that remains true whether it was Gordon Brown or Rishi Sunak raising it. In an ideal world, you’d reduce it by 1% per year, and replace the revenue over time with corporation tax. No way that gets past the Treasury mandarins though, especially not at a time of full employment.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,497

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    The problem is that IR35 is lipstick on a pig. The problem comes from NI and a sensible long-term solution to abolish it would be better.
    Exactly. If there wasn't such a huge difference in the tax treatment then it wouldn't matter.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,345
    Citi forecast for January.
    CPI 18.6%
    RPI 21%
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243
    edited August 22
    Taz said:
    … but the economy will have recovered by autumn 2024. Copyright: @Sandpit

    If they weren’t such a bunch of unmitigated shits, one would almost feel sorry for Tories.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,599

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    The problem is that IR35 is lipstick on a pig. The problem comes from NI and a sensible long-term solution to abolish it would be better.
    Agreed. Combine NI and Income tax. The argument about NI being for a different purpose is rubbish. Tax income of all forms it is a big pot of Government money and it cannot be beyond the wit of Government to sort out a system of dividing it up accordingly without having to differentiate at source.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    dixiedean said:

    Citi forecast for January.
    CPI 18.6%
    RPI 21%

    Quick, cut taxes, that'll fix it
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    The problem is that IR35 is lipstick on a pig. The problem comes from NI and a sensible long-term solution to abolish it would be better.
    Too much money in it and no chance that removing it would result in workers receiving big enough pay increases to ensure they aren't worse off.
    That's why I said a long-term solution. It ought to be phased out over time.

    Sunak and Brown have done the opposite though, making the problem worse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,989
    Carnyx said:

    BTW - that piccie of Liz Truss... what a sour expression!

    What the heck were the Tories doing in Belfast anyway? They have no mandate in N Ireland, they never stand for election there.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Conservatives

    Don't blame you, though:

    'The Northern Ireland Conservatives is a section of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party that operates in Northern Ireland. The party won 0.03% of the vote in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election and 0.7% of the vote in the 2019 United Kingdom General election in Northern Ireland.'

    These are worse GE figures than the MRLP where it stands, though the latter is too sensible to try to stand in NI.
    It is a great thing the Conservatives stand in Northern Ireland, reduces sectarianism and ensures they get more of the choice the rest of the UK does.

    A pity Labour and the LDs don't stand but just give their sister parties the SDLP and Alliance a free run in the province (although the Conservatives did stand on a joint ticket with their sister party the UUP in 2010 getting 15% of the vote)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,880

    Taz said:
    … but the economy will have recovered by autumn 2024. Copyright: @Sandpit

    If they weren’t such a bunch of unmitigated shits, one would almost feel sorry for Tories.
    That’s not what I said now, is it?

    I said that the government wouldn’t be wanting an election until the economy was recovering, so they will most likely not call it until autumn 2024.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,599
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss should get a bounce but it is unlikely to be as big as Major, Brown, May or Johnson got. For starters Truss is the continuity Boris candidate. Major was at least somewhat ideologically different from Thatcher as was Brown from Blair and Johnson from May and indeed even May from Cameron so it seemed more of a change in government. In fact the biggest difference between Truss and Boris is she is more of a tax and spending cutter

    I guess it's possible (although I sense not) that Truss is doing a Starmer - ie she's telling the members what they want to hear in order to get the leadership but once ensconced will change and become something else entirely.
    It's possible - but she is going to have to change an awful lot of what she has promised because what she has promised just isn't possible.

    I note that over the weekend she suggested a review of IR35 - I can point to £70bn reasons why that will never get anywhere...
    TBF - abolishing IR35 might bring in more tax than keeping it. When it was introduced, the tax take went noticeably down and, IIRC, it has barely "broke even" in nearly 20 years.
    I will give you the Treasury argument.

    Employment numbers are reducing as more companies move towards using contingency and freelance workers.
    This is having a significant impact on Employer NI.

    And given the amount of money generated by Employer NI we cannot take the risk that that money will erode away. That literally was the argument used for the changes to IR35 in the public sector (2017) and large firms (2021)..

    Now I wouldn't have a problem if the discussion was about employment (as employment law and employment tax law is a utter mess that doesn't relate in whole sets of places) but it's not that - it's a story about IR35 because Liz thinks she will get some votes out of it...
    The problem is that the IR35 system as it now exists is broken. HMRC were pissed off because they were doing their normal trick of pushing the remit of the legislation way beyond where it should have been and ended up losing large numbers of court cases where they had said contractors should be inside when clearly under their own rules they should have been outside.

    As a result they changed the scheme to take responsibility for deciding who should be inside and who outside away from themselves and the contractor and place it on the end user client. With the threat of massive fines for any company that got it wrong.

    The result is that almost all large companies are now using blanket decisions to put all contractors inside IR35 even those who should not be. It is safer for them and HMRC love it.

    Of course the result is a massive reduction in consultants to the extent now that, in my business, projects are having to be delayed or abandoned because they do not have the skill sets to complete them.

    IR35 can be a sensible system. But it needs to be properly managed and operated and HMRC have shown themselves to be incapable to doing that.
    The problem is that IR35 is lipstick on a pig. The problem comes from NI and a sensible long-term solution to abolish it would be better.
    Too much money in it and no chance that removing it would result in workers receiving big enough pay increases to ensure they aren't worse off.
    Just merge it with Income tax. Make the whole system more honest and transparent. Also means it removes the idiocy of people past pension age not paying it if they carry on working.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,335
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    BTW - that piccie of Liz Truss... what a sour expression!

    What the heck were the Tories doing in Belfast anyway? They have no mandate in N Ireland, they never stand for election there.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Conservatives

    Don't blame you, though:

    'The Northern Ireland Conservatives is a section of the United Kingdom's Conservative Party that operates in Northern Ireland. The party won 0.03% of the vote in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election and 0.7% of the vote in the 2019 United Kingdom General election in Northern Ireland.'

    These are worse GE figures than the MRLP where it stands, though the latter is too sensible to try to stand in NI.
    It is a great thing the Conservatives stand in Northern Ireland, reduces sectarianism and ensures they get more of the choice the rest of the UK does.

    A pity Labour and the LDs don't stand but just give their sister parties the SDLP and Alliance a free run in the province (although the Conservatives did stand on a joint ticket with their sister party the UUP in 2010 getting 15% of the vote)
    Divide and rule, eh, young HY?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,243

    dixiedean said:

    Citi forecast for January.
    CPI 18.6%
    RPI 21%

    Quick, cut taxes, that'll fix it
    Could Liz Truss be the most economically illiterate PM ever?

    Happy to be corrected. I’m sure some smart arse will refer to the corn laws or somesuch.
This discussion has been closed.