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Opinium finds double-digit LAB leads whoever becomes PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,082

    The development in question is right next to City Airport so hardly in the middle of nowhere. In ten years it will be buzzing.
    I used to live not far from Tobacco Dock - they were complete just in time for the next downturn.

    The real question with such developments, in London, in the long term, is transport links
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566

    The development in question is right next to City Airport so hardly in the middle of nowhere. In ten years it will be buzzing.
    Yes, this is exactly how London develops, in fits and spasms

    During the boom times, it over reaches, and someone builds something mad which lies empty for yonks. But then on the next upward swing it is quickly taken up and becomes a success, and we forget it was ever a white elephant, meanwhile the next over-ambitious developer is having crazy dreams

    Even the fucking Millennium Dome has ended up a big success (if you ignore the initial cost to us all)

    In fact, it would be a bad sign for London is these things did NOT happen. It would men no one was gambling on the city's growth and future success
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408

    Not even the current Conservative Party is that daft...surely?
    Au contraire.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275
    On topic, the difference between 11 and 14 pts is margin of error stuff.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,265
    dixiedean said:

    Success will soon equal able to turn the central heating on.
    "Hey central heating, I lurrvvve you..."

    I have a way with women domestic appliances...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    Leon said:

    Yes, this is exactly how London develops, in fits and spasms

    During the boom times, it over reaches, and someone builds something mad which lies empty for yonks. But then on the next upward swing it is quickly taken up and becomes a success, and we forget it was ever a white elephant, meanwhile the next over-ambitious developer is having crazy dreams

    Even the fucking Millennium Dome has ended up a big success (if you ignore the initial cost to us all)

    In fact, it would be a bad sign for London is these things did NOT happen. It would men no one was gambling on the city's growth and future success
    It amazing how the Millennium Dome wasn't even supposed to be permanent.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    I think that it also indicates that we need to study a lot more closely why they work. If it is not because they are boosting seratonin, for example (which may simply be boosted as an indirect result of whatever is working) what is the mechanism that helps? And, having found it, can we make that part work better?
    People have tried!

    One (serious) theory is that the problem is the opposite (too much serotonin, and drugs which induce even more kick start the brain into having a proper clear out of the stuff).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    nico679 said:

    So far Truss has been running away from the tax rises and trying to avoid any responsibility.

    This will change in the final 2 . She might be favourite but I don’t think it’s impossible for Sunak to overtake her .

    I am still hopeful Penny makes final 2 and Lightweight Lizzy is knocked out today. I will laugh and dance all evening.

    The way Truss went up yesterday was suspicious was it not. Sunak May feel he beats Penny more easily than Liz, so rigs todays vote. The best way to do this would have started yesterday is 20 Rishi supporters voting Liz yesterday to fool the right, and switching those plus ten or 15 more to Penny today - those 35 more for Penny knocks Truss out.

    Remember you heard it here first.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566

    It amazing how the Millennium Dome wasn't even supposed to be permanent.
    Ditto the London Eye and the Eiffel Tower
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    I see that Boris in his final oration said that we’d listened to Treasury, there’d be no M25 and no Channel Tunnel.

    Quite right!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182
    Leon said:

    Ditto the London Eye and the Eiffel Tower
    And Skylon.
    Which they sadly got rid of.
    But they should bring back.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203
    edited July 2022

    Bit like Boris and politics then.....
    Carlson has defended his title 5 times, Boris didn't even make it through a succesful defense of his 2019 win.

    I see that Boris in his final oration said that we’d listened to Treasury, there’d be no M25 and no Channel Tunnel.

    Quite right!

    Hah, he's determined to see Rishi sunk isn't he. Will probably be enough for whichever of Mordaunt or Truss gets through.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    Ditto the London Eye and the Eiffel Tower
    I thought the Dome structure was only built to last x years....did they end up reskinning it all, or at some point in the future they will have to do it?

    The Eye was supposed to go on a tour if I remember correctly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,650

    Tobias Ellwood has had the whip momentarily restored just long enough for him to cast a proxy vote in the leadership election.

    An afternoon on the lash.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    Carnyx said:

    '“There’s not a single office tenant here,” he says. “Not one. They were trying to rent them out, then the pandemic happened and – poof! – we got ourselves a ghost town. A Job Centre finally opened here a few months ago, so at least I’ve got some company now.”

    [...]

    Today, the place has a Ballardian air. On a sunny weekday lunchtime, a ripped topless man is the sole inhabitant of the district’s central square, doing press-ups on the manicured lawn and admiring his reflection in the empty plate glass windows. After a long time walking the length of the blocks, trying doorways and pressing buzzers in search of life, I find another man sitting on a kerb sipping a coffee. An office worker, at last?

    “We’re filming an advert for Marks & Spencer,” he tells me. “It’s an ideal location because there are never any people around. If we’re careful with the shots, we can sort of make it look like a normal place.”'
    "Separately, the report said, the Chinese-born wife of a junior Home Office minister appeared to have played a role in supporting the bid, while at the same time donating considerable sums to the Conservative party. The programme said Xuelin Bates, a property developer who married the Tory peer Lord (Michael) Bates in 2012, had held talks in 2008 with Xu Weiping, and made at least one trip to China paid for by the Chinese company. She also formed a company called London China ABP, but dissolved it before it was due to file accounts, and has donated more than £206,000 to the Conservatives since 2010. Lady Bates said any donations she made were purely personal and London China ABP had no connection to the Chinese firm, which also denied any knowledge or involvement in her actions."
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,751
    On topic. It’s midterm, of course they do.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    The correct decision.
    Can you imagine the drama if it was so close that one vote mattered . I doubt it will come down to that but it was a very good decision .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,135
    The die is now cast.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566

    I thought the Dome structure was only built to last x years....did they end up reskinning it all, or at some point in the future they will have to do it?

    The Eye was supposed to go on a tour if I remember correctly.
    I somehow remember the Eye was meant to go on a tour, then return to a less conspicuous place on the River Thames, down in Docklands. But it was such a hit from day one....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,182

    The die is now cast.

    Rishi has crossed the Rubicon?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,751

    I thought the Dome structure was only built to last x years....did they end up reskinning it all, or at some point in the future they will have to do it?

    The Eye was supposed to go on a tour if I remember correctly.
    Wasn’t there an impromptu reskin after the winds a few months back?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,113
    So is that the voting finished now? Gulp.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,560
    Italy. As the Senate moves towards a vote of confidence having listened to a statesmanlike Draghi speech on the political landscape this morning, the demands of each party seem as mutually exclusive as ever:

    Draghi - as an extra political PM states he will only stay as PM in a genuine unity government with wide support and is not minded to remake a new Draghi led government with a smaller coalition

    M5S - have a shopping list of spending demands on the slate of bills for the program of government. Their remaining representatives are split on whether to give
    confidence.

    Forza, Lega - will not serve with M5S

    Seems the only possible way out would be a further M5S split that renders them an irrelevance (a direction of travel they are on tbh, but probably not fast enough to save this government), so government continues minus a small M5S rump.

    The odds remain on a likely 25th September GE therefore.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    The European Commission has urged countries across the bloc to cut their gas use by 15% from August to March amid fears Russia could halt supplies. It says the target is voluntary but will become legally binding if Moscow turns off the taps this summer.

    Jumper sales to soar.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    I am still hopeful Penny makes final 2 and Lightweight Lizzy is knocked out today. I will laugh and dance all evening.

    The way Truss went up yesterday was suspicious was it not. Sunak May feel he beats Penny more easily than Liz, so rigs todays vote. The best way to do this would have started yesterday is 20 Rishi supporters voting Liz yesterday to fool the right, and switching those plus ten or 15 more to Penny today - those 35 more for Penny knocks Truss out.

    Remember you heard it here first.
    It’s a dangerous risky game because his total could have dropped and the media would be all over him losing momentum .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited July 2022

    I thought the Dome structure was only built to last x years....did they end up reskinning it all, or at some point in the future they will have to do it?

    The Eye was supposed to go on a tour if I remember correctly.
    Didn’t the wind force them to re-skin a large part of it last winter?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/o2-arena-millennium-dome-storm-eunice-b2018247.html
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,650
    eek said:

    And in those 30 years what projects have the Tory parties not binned. The Electrification of the Leeds Manchester line should be finished now but thanks to 12 years of Government arsing about it's so far cost £1bn and wasted £190m. https://t.co/PDOnY8QiUk
    I'm not fussed about electrification. I just want the Class 68s and Mark 5a sets operating instead of sitting around in the sidings. Goodness knows when the full TPE service will be restored.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203
    Looks like one of the big boys are going to take today's stage in the TDF, Bjerg setting a monster pace.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,706

    I see that Boris in his final oration said that we’d listened to Treasury, there’d be no M25 and no Channel Tunnel.

    Quite right!

    Subtext: don't elect Rishi Sunak.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    Sandpit said:

    Didn’t the wind force them to re-skin a large part of it last winter?
    I think it was only one panel.

    I seemed to remember though the whole structure wasn't really designed to last permanently. No idea what happened when it was given away to private sector, a huge amount of work was undertaken, but I didn't follow what exactly they were doing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,341
    Big G has blown up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566
    Dutch revolution still brewing


    "Whoa!

    The Dutch people at a local event chanting in support of their farmers!

    ‘Boeren, Boeren’

    I’ve never seen anything like it.

    🔥🔥🔥"


    https://twitter.com/SaiKate108/status/1548952273912401920?s=20&t=nc1GwTENfa7ADA_IoH_6Rw
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,203
    G blown out the back. Straight fight between Pog and Vingegaard now.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    nico679 said:

    Can you imagine the drama if it was so close that one vote mattered . I doubt it will come down to that but it was a very good decision .
    He is a known pennyite. Who thinks this would have happened if he'd been in the rishi camp?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,113
    Pulpstar said:

    G blown out the back. Straight fight between Pog and Vingegaard now.

    Are these new nicknames for our Conservative hopefuls and, if so, who is who? *trying to keep up*
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    IshmaelZ said:

    He is a known pennyite. Who thinks this would have happened if he'd been in the rishi camp?
    So yesterday Boris withdrew the whip because Ellwood was going to vote the wrong way.

    Now Boris has restored the whip because Ellwood is going to vote the right way? I can't keep up...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,650

    The die is now cast.

    Yep.

    So should we have a quick comp, me administering?

    Rules: Predict the exact result. Score = 100 minus aggregate votes out.

    I'll disadvantage myself by going first -

    Sunak: 140
    Truss: 109
    Mordaunt: 107
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566
    The Electric Elf has gone!

    We are down to Squeal Thee Eel and T'APETH
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    Dutch revolution still brewing


    "Whoa!

    The Dutch people at a local event chanting in support of their farmers!

    ‘Boeren, Boeren’

    I’ve never seen anything like it.

    🔥🔥🔥"


    https://twitter.com/SaiKate108/status/1548952273912401920?s=20&t=nc1GwTENfa7ADA_IoH_6Rw

    I guess they don't think much of net zero either, then
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566
    IshmaelZ said:

    I guess they don't think much of net zero either, then
    If nothing else, that clip has taught me that "Boer" means Farmer, as they are apparently shouting Boeren Boeren: Farmers, Farmers
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    Yep.

    So should we have a quick comp, me administering?

    Rules: Predict the exact result. Score = 100 minus aggregate votes out.

    I'll disadvantage myself by going first -

    Sunak: 140
    Truss: 109
    Mordaunt: 107
    S 123
    T 117
    M 116
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,160
    edited July 2022
    Please, no Fizzy Lizzy in the top two.

    As a non- Conservative it would be great news if she made the runoff, but as a citizen of the UK the thought that she might prevail is too shocking to contemplate.

    It has to be Sunak v Mordaunt...doesn't it?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    kinabalu said:

    Yep.

    So should we have a quick comp, me administering?

    Rules: Predict the exact result. Score = 100 minus aggregate votes out.

    I'll disadvantage myself by going first -

    Sunak: 140
    Truss: 109
    Mordaunt: 107
    Sunak 130
    Mordaunt 116
    Truss 111
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,113
    kinabalu said:

    Yep.

    So should we have a quick comp, me administering?

    Rules: Predict the exact result. Score = 100 minus aggregate votes out.

    I'll disadvantage myself by going first -

    Sunak: 140
    Truss: 109
    Mordaunt: 107
    S160
    T105
    M 96
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,298
    You know, at the start of the contest I was excited about Penny (and Kemi) and felt it was a worthwhile gamble that could pay off for the Tories and lead to an exciting reinvention.

    Now we’re down to the last 3 I’m increasingly of the view that none of them are magic bullets that are going to solve the Tories’ woes, and indeed it has to be highly possible that all 3 will lead them to GE disaster - for different reasons.

    I am really disappointed that Penny turned out to be such a damp squib.

    The only thing I can take away from this contest is that Kemi is most likely going to be the party leader someday.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited July 2022
    nico679 said:

    It’s a dangerous risky game because his total could have dropped and the media would be all over him losing momentum .
    I’d do it.

    You got to remember it’s not full 30 votes off Rishi total so he suddenly drops 30, if he has been sensibly lending them already. He’s got extra votes coming today as well as those available yet to be on his total yesterday cause he lent to Liz.

    If Sunak has lent Liz votes yesterday as the comentors believe, it’s now in Sunak’s power and gift to knock Truss out today and bring Boris and continuity Boris to an end.

    It would be naff politics from Rishi’s camp not to remove Truss from the ballot today, on that basis he will go for it, he will lend Penny about 30 votes to put Liz out.

    This is a political betting site, we have to consider the likelihood that all the thoughtful ideas how it should go based on tribes and ideology can go out the window, because Sunak’s team do have both dozens to spare they can use and it would be dum not to use them.

    If you are in it to win it, it would be dum not to game the system. So is it gamaable? Yes. Does he have the numbers to chose his opponent? Yes. So is his team too dumb or scared of the daily mail front page to do it?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,265
    edited July 2022
    And another bridge knocked out in the competition to be the last standing Russian bridge in Ukraine (*). Sadly only temporarily.

    https://twitter.com/cjdrew94/status/1549715857823223808

    (*) Sorry, that's the best I could do...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    If nothing else, that clip has taught me that "Boer" means Farmer, as they are apparently shouting Boeren Boeren: Farmers, Farmers
    Hence boer war. I assume cognate with German boden, soil, so farmers = mud people.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275

    I’d do it.

    You got to remember it’s not full 30 votes off Rishi total so he suddenly drops 30, if he has been lending them already. He’s got extra votes coming today as well as those available yet to be on his total yesterday cause he lent to Liz.

    If Sunak has lent Liz votes yesterday as the comentors believe, it’s now in Sunak’s power and gift to knock Truss out today and bring Boris and continuity Boris to an end.

    It would be naff politics from Rishi’s camp not to remove Truss from the ballot today, on that basis he will go for it, he will lend Penny about 30 votes to put Liz out.

    This is a political betting site, we have to consider the likelihood that all the thoughtful ideas how it should go based on tribes and ideology can go out the window, because Sunak’s team do have both dozens to spare they can use and it would be dum not to use them.

    If you are in it to win it, it would be dum not to game the system. So is it gamaable? Yes. Does he have the numbers to chose his opponent? Yes. So is his team too dumb or scared of the daily mail front page to do it?
    What do you think is the true level of support for Sunak? About 150?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777
    What is so very different about this leadership contest compared to previous ones is that there is no possibility of anyone volunteering to drop out and have their opponent crowned. None. They're going to be bitterly fighting long after a "winner" is declared.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275
    BBC News and Sky News have done zero reports so far on the Dutch farmer protests as far as I know.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,298

    I’d do it.

    If Sunak has lent Liz votes yesterday as the comentors believe, it’s now in Sunak’s power and gift to knock Truss out today and bring Boris and continuity Boris to an end.

    It would be naff politics from Rishi’s camp not to remove Truss from the ballot today, on that basis he will go for it, he will lend Penny about 30 votes to put Liz out.

    This is a political betting site, we have to consider the likelihood that all the thoughtful ideas how it should go based on tribes and ideology can go out the window, because Sunak’s team do have both dozens to spare they can use and it would be dum not to use them.

    If you are in it to win it, it would be dum not to game the system. So is it gamaable? Yes. Does he have the numbers to chose his opponent? Yes. So is his team too dumb or scared of the daily mail front page to do it?
    There has been a suggestion that he thinks Liz is an easier opponent than Penny. I think the majority on here disagree with that assessment, but if that holds true he won’t be doing any gaming to save Mordaunt.

    I guess Penny can do the hopey changey stuff which is dangerous, but then Liz can do the Brexiteer-Darling-of-the-Right stuff which I think is even more dangerous. He’s got a chance of exposing Penny as lightweight and woke. He can’t expose Liz for anything because it’s already factored in.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,560
    IshmaelZ said:

    S 123
    T 117
    M 116
    S 128
    T 118
    M 110
  • What is so very different about this leadership contest compared to previous ones is that there is no possibility of anyone volunteering to drop out and have their opponent crowned. None. They're going to be bitterly fighting long after a "winner" is declared.

    I don't think you're going to see a sore loser like Hunt turning his nose down at Defence again this time.

    It will be bitter until the votes are cast, but I think both Truss and Rishi can work together whoever wins.

    See the way they were able to co-operate to pull the plug on the Sky debate in order to stop attacking each other.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,440
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC News and Sky News have done zero reports so far on the Dutch farmer protests as far as I know.

    Brexit means Brexit .... :smile:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,113
    Andy_JS said:

    What do you think is the true level of support for Sunak? About 150?
    Sunak has to go all out today to win big. His pitch to the membership is that I am the clear choice of the MPs and you should back them (and me). If its close he loses that USP and it will get very hairy for him.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    IshmaelZ said:

    I guess they don't think much of net zero either, then
    Well quite.

    I suspect the real reason labour supporters don't want Truss is under her the tories might soft pedal somewhat on net zero.

    At the next election that would leave labour as the main party that wants to take your car and your boiler tomorrow. Oh dear.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC News and Sky News have done zero reports so far on the Dutch farmer protests as far as I know.

    It isn't just Dutch farmers, of course. Germany, Poland, Italy etc.
  • My prediction for today before, yesterday's results was:

    S 142
    M 106
    T 109

    However updating based on yesterday's results, keeping the same transfer rates I'd baked in is:

    S 136
    M 98
    T 121

    I expect the final result will be somewhere between the two though, since I don't really understand yesterday's result at all.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    Pro_Rata said:

    S 128
    T 118
    M 110
    S 128
    T 115
    M 112
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    I don’t think Sunaks supporters played games but it was TTs who were going to vote for Sunak but lent their votes to Truss to knock out Badenoch .

    This makes sense and was much less risky than Sunaks support lending Truss votes .

    If we assume that say 10 TTs voters did this it would drop Truss down to 76 v 92 for Mordaunt .

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275
    DavidL said:

    Sunak has to go all out today to win big. His pitch to the membership is that I am the clear choice of the MPs and you should back them (and me). If its close he loses that USP and it will get very hairy for him.
    I was just thinking the same. I don't think there's much difference between facing Mordaunt and Truss as far as he's concerned, so he may just go for the most number of votes to put pressure on the membership.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,113

    I don't think you're going to see a sore loser like Hunt turning his nose down at Defence again this time.

    It will be bitter until the votes are cast, but I think both Truss and Rishi can work together whoever wins.

    See the way they were able to co-operate to pull the plug on the Sky debate in order to stop attacking each other.
    "A question for Liz, what do you regret most, voting remain or being a Liberal Democrat?"

    Work together? Ha!

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,440
    Leon said:

    Stupid old witch
    Fanboi. :smile:
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    DavidL said:

    Sunak has to go all out today to win big. His pitch to the membership is that I am the clear choice of the MPs and you should back them (and me). If its close he loses that USP and it will get very hairy for him.

    That's the equivalent of Liz Cheney pitching to Wyoming Republicans that she is the choice of Capitol Hill.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,160
    ...
    Andy_JS said:

    I was just thinking the same. I don't think there's much difference between facing Mordaunt and Truss as far as he's concerned, so he may just go for the most number of votes to put pressure on the membership.
    In one -on-one debates Mordaunt may be weak against Sunak, but Truss would be calamitous.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,650
    So far got predictions from -

    Me
    Driver
    Ishmael
    David
    ProRata
    Bartho
    Boy

    Need lots more (!) to attain critical mass and make it a trophy that's going to have real prestige and mean something.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,046
    LATEST
    **MP loyal to Penny Mordaunt concedes**
    The MP tells me "Liz has pushed us out" blaming criticism over her record in the Tory Press.
    He says: "[It] looks like a Rishi v Liz summer contest. The only winner from that will be our Opponents. Both will be damaged." #ToryLeader

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1549762704558153734
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    What do you think is the true level of support for Sunak? About 150?
    He is the only one to have stuck to his guns for a sane economic policy for the next year or so, he has the best media skills, and is miles better in the chamber than probably any MP right now - I don’t like the way people say the Tory MP’s and the members are too dumb to appreciate this. If we are going to commentate and bet sensibly to say “but the Tories are too stupid to get this right” is arguably not very sensible.

    To answer your question, this system is gamesable, and if you are serious about control and winning, like Team Boris when they ensured Hunt ahead of Gove, then why wouldn’t you?

    Note to Daily Mail: the only way to have ensured this first round was free fair and democratic would have been to copy the example of mother of parliaments and not allow secret ballots to be used. Why does this first stage need to be a secret ballot, it’s not used in parliament voting and simply allows this process to be bastardised.

    It would certainly help us political bettors too wouldn’t it, if this round had been more democratic?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    MISTY said:

    Well quite.

    I suspect the real reason labour supporters don't want Truss is under her the tories might soft pedal somewhat on net zero.

    At the next election that would leave labour as the main party that wants to take your car and your boiler tomorrow. Oh dear.
    With my Labour supporter hat on I would love for Truss to be elected. With my UK citizen hat on not so much.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,440
    The United States will transfer four additional HIMARS light rocket launchers to Ukraine, announced US Defense Minister Lloyd Austin during the fourth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group ("Ramstein format").
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1549751292129673216
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,032

    The final round of MPs voting runs this afternoon from 1 to 3pm; results due 4pm.

    Betfair next prime minister
    2.04 Liz Truss 49%
    2.62 Rishi Sunak 38%
    7 Penny Mordaunt 14%
    300 Dominic Raab
    340 Keir Starmer

    Next Conservative leader
    2.02 Liz Truss 50%
    2.72 Rishi Sunak 37%
    6.8 Penny Mordaunt 15%

    To be in final two
    1.02 Rishi Sunak 98%
    1.27 Liz Truss 79%
    3.8 Penny Mordaunt 26%

    At the half-time oranges stage of the count.

    Betfair next prime minister
    2 Liz Truss 50%
    2.64 Rishi Sunak 38%
    7.8 Penny Mordaunt 13%
    300 Dominic Raab
    340 Keir Starmer

    Next Conservative leader
    1.96 Liz Truss 51%
    2.7 Rishi Sunak 37%
    8.4 Penny Mordaunt 12%

    To be in final two
    1.02 Rishi Sunak 98%
    1.19 Liz Truss 84%
    5 Penny Mordaunt 20%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,408
    DavidL said:

    "A question for Liz, what do you regret most, voting remain or being a Liberal Democrat?"

    Work together? Ha!

    Dunno - Kamila H virtually accused Biden of driving the school "busing" bus himself during one debate and yet she is now his Veep.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,440
    Lavrov gives the biggest official signal yet that Russia is planning to annex southern Ukraine.

    "Now the geography has changed. It's not just Donetsk and Luhansk, it's Kherson, Zaporizhia, and several other territories. And this is an ongoing process, consistent and insistent."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1549711941299470336

    This is hardly a surprise, given their intent is the whole of Ukraine, sooner, or later.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    My prediction for today before, yesterday's results was:

    S 142
    M 106
    T 109

    However updating based on yesterday's results, keeping the same transfer rates I'd baked in is:

    S 136
    M 98
    T 121

    I expect the final result will be somewhere between the two though, since I don't really understand yesterday's result at all.

    S 150
    M 85
    T 122
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901
    edited July 2022
    S 137
    M 110
    T 110

    Which would be amusing. Ellwood makes it a tie.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,160
    Scott_xP said:

    LATEST
    **MP loyal to Penny Mordaunt concedes**
    The MP tells me "Liz has pushed us out" blaming criticism over her record in the Tory Press.
    He says: "[It] looks like a Rishi v Liz summer contest. The only winner from that will be our Opponents. Both will be damaged." #ToryLeader

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1549762704558153734

    Please, no! But if that comes to pass Penny only has herself to blame. It was hers for the taking this time last week.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,566
    kinabalu said:

    So far got predictions from -

    Me
    Driver
    Ishmael
    David
    ProRata
    Bartho
    Boy

    Need lots more (!) to attain critical mass and make it a trophy that's going to have real prestige and mean something.

    Sunak 340
    Truss 0
    Mordaunt 1.2
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,706
    Nigelb said:

    Lavrov gives the biggest official signal yet that Russia is planning to annex southern Ukraine.

    "Now the geography has changed. It's not just Donetsk and Luhansk, it's Kherson, Zaporizhia, and several other territories. And this is an ongoing process, consistent and insistent."

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1549711941299470336

    This is hardly a surprise, given their intent is the whole of Ukraine, sooner, or later.

    He looks like he's aged quite a lot since the beginning of the war.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275
    Sir Graham Brady and the other vote counters must know who the winners are by now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,160
    MrEd said:

    S 150
    M 85
    T 122
    I never thought I would ever say this, but you could be on the money today.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,650
    DavidL said:

    Sunak has to go all out today to win big. His pitch to the membership is that I am the clear choice of the MPs and you should back them (and me). If its close he loses that USP and it will get very hairy for him.
    My thinking too. Difference in our predictions is you assess his 'true' support a bit higher.

    Personally I think there's a case for a final MPs vote after this one with just the last 2 on the ballot and the supporters of the 3rd place elimination hence having to choose between them. That way the members would get a clear idea of the relative MP preference for one over the other.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,265
    S 160
    M 75
    T 122
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    ...

    In one -on-one debates Mordaunt may be weak against Sunak, but Truss would be calamitous.
    True. But there’s a danger 100,000 members vote for her anyway. Penny won’t get those numbers of zombie votes.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    .
    Leon said:

    My present supposition is that this is all dark psy-ops in the US government, either to confuse the Chinese or to cover some genuinely amazing tech that the US has developed. But the spooks are exploiting/harnessing a core of true believers, who think there really IS something unworldly Up
    There, despite the notable lack of hard
    evidence
    Yes I remember you saying, Joe Rogan has flipped to this view too. It doesn’t make a great deal of sense to me because it assumes a level of collaboration between competing interests that I find implausible.

    Also there’s little reason for secret tech to appear so regularly and casually in front of US military assets in such a way that videos and data leak into the public domain. Occasional mishaps and miscommunications happen between joint chiefs but some US navy pilots repot this happens ALL THE TIME. As in almost every day over a two year assignment as per one pilot.

    All in all yours seems a far more complicated conspiracy than simply, it’s as Tim Peake summarises. Not govt, not a non-state actor but off world however you wish to define that. Given the vastness of space and time, it’s quite the paradox to paraphrase Fermi, if this is not the answer.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,777

    I don't think you're going to see a sore loser like Hunt turning his nose down at Defence again this time.

    It will be bitter until the votes are cast, but I think both Truss and Rishi can work together whoever wins.

    See the way they were able to co-operate to pull the plug on the Sky debate in order to stop attacking each other.
    It isn't so much the candidates that are the problem, it is the factions behind them!
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,299

    If you want to excuse BR for its similar rate of crashes, that's up to you.

    The bright side is that we had 12 years with no passenger fatalities in a train crash, and 15 years with only one (the Stonehaven derailment). That's something to feel good about, even if it did happen in a part-privatised system. Long may it continue.
    Lot of apples to oranges comparison here, particularly because of the introduction of TPWS which makes it much more difficult for drivers to SPAD significantly. That's not really anything to do with ownership structure, and is much more just that this sort of technology has developed and become mature enough to deploy.

    IMHO a big part of the problem with the railway network is a safety obsession which drives costs up by an order of magnitude from otherwise comparable industries. Given that you were statistically safer sat on a british railway train than in your own living room in the 1960s, and passenger deaths are now a fraction of what they were then, one suspects that costs could probably be cut by cutting back on safety without huge public detriment.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Graham Brady and the other vote counters must know who the winners are by now.

    Penny at 12… if so they’re not hoovering up the free money
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    With my Labour supporter hat on I would love for Truss to be elected. With my UK citizen hat on not so much.
    Truss is very poor candidate, but I am just pointing out that it might not all be plain sailing for SKS next time out.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    moonshine said:

    Penny at 12… if so they’re not hoovering up the free money
    Edit: hold on, she’s now 60 for the lay. So yes they are, it’s just that penny is out
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,265
    Well done TMay:

    "Incredible moment as former PM Theresa May refuses to clap for
    @BorisJohnson
    at his last PMQs"

    https://twitter.com/ShehabKhan/status/1549749594908762116?s=20&t=GpkpbAyh42js_JPUv7iIRA
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,275
    It's almost impossible to predict which of Truss or Mordaunt will come through because of possible tactical voting in previous rounds.

    But I'll have a guess:

    Sunak 133
    Truss 114
    Mordaunt 110
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,440
    edited July 2022
    kinabalu said:

    So far got predictions from -

    Me
    Driver
    Ishmael
    David
    ProRata
    Bartho
    Boy

    Need lots more (!) to attain critical mass and make it a trophy that's going to have real prestige and mean something.

    I'm happy to admit I haven't a clue in this case.

    WAG*
    Sunak: 134
    Truss: 111
    Mordaunt: 111

    *Almost certainly very wrong.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,160
    Sunak 140
    Mordaunt 74
    Truss 68

    Boris Johnson write-ins 75
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,901
    Some ride from Mc Nulty.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,689

    It isn't so much the candidates that are the problem, it is the factions behind them!
    And Bozo quietly cheering on every minor disaster...
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    MISTY said:

    Truss is very poor candidate, but I am just pointing out that it might not all be plain sailing for SKS next time out.
    Oh absolutely, the last thing Labour should do is act like it can just sit back and win by default. Labour should win (in sense of being biggest party or at least putting uncoalitionable Tories out of office) but only if they turn up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,706
    S 128
    M 92
    T 135
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,046
    Half an hour to go until the final ballot, and Liz Truss appears to be making a social media video outside Parliament.

    Wonder if she's making two...

    It's turning into a full-on photoshoot...looks awfully like she thinks she's through.

    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1549764918269861890
  • eekeek Posts: 29,689
    S 142
    M 100
    T 115
This discussion has been closed.