Rishi Rishi Rishi, you could have put Truss out if you handed some votes over...
Penny is a bigger risk than Liz, IMO. Her tax and spend plan was simply unhinged.
She's much less experienced, of course, so, yes, in that sense she's a bigger risk. She also seems to be pretty thick.
OTOH we know that Liz Truss is an unexploded bomb in terms of NI and the EU. Not clear at this stage whether she can be defused.
I think once Boris is out of the picture and she's in No 10 a deal will be done. It suits her to get it out of the way quickly and move on to CoL stuff rather than have it dominate the agenda for months while people are unable to afford to fill up.
It's certainly true that her record on the trade deals is one of conceding everything to get any deal she can. The Australian and NZ deals she did were just extraordinarily one-sided, and not in our favour:
However, I'm sceptical that this means she'll do anything to get a new deal with the EU. Caving in to Australia and NZ and screwing British farmers gets you plaudits in the modern Conservative Party. The opposite seems to be true of trying to reach a sensible relationship in the case of our former European friends and our biggest trading partners; the totally irrational and pathological dislike of anything with the name 'European' in it which infests the party may mean that she calculates that further wrecking of the economy in the name of ideological purity is what she should do. Certainly the rhetoric so far, and her commitment to the utterly brain-dead NI Protocol Bill, is not exactly encouraging.
Not really, those show GVA and employment gains across the board - except in agriculture and semi-processed foods - but I expect those hits are overcooked, as the updated methodology suggests.
Somehow one suspects that the deals the EU is negotiating with Australia and NZ, when they eventually materialise, will be lauded as being very responsible.
Its interesting how in the UK we think a shift to the right = automatic electoral defeat.
IN America, the primaries are throwing up a much bigger shift to the right, and yet the polls show the Republicans doing well in the mid terms.
Ah, would this be the same Senate polls that have the Democrats winning:
Nevada Georgia Pennsylvania Arizona New Hampshire
and possibly even
Wisconsin and Ohio
The 538 "polls only" forecast has the Dems actually gaining Senate seats.
Now, I grant you that the Republicans are essentially certain to gain the House. But no-one knows who their House candidate is. And everyone knows who their Senate candidate is.
---
Edit to add: and this ignores the fact the Republicans might also lose Utah to an Independent
True but the US polls had Biden winning Ohio/Iowa/Florida/NC and with a good shout in Texas in the presidential plus the Biden to take Wisconsin by 17 poll.
I think Trumpists are hard to reach in the US for many pollsters.
Rishi Rishi Rishi, you could have put Truss out if you handed some votes over...
Penny is a bigger risk than Liz, IMO. Her tax and spend plan was simply unhinged.
She's much less experienced, of course, so, yes, in that sense she's a bigger risk. She also seems to be pretty thick.
OTOH we know that Liz Truss is an unexploded bomb in terms of NI and the EU. Not clear at this stage whether she can be defused.
I think once Boris is out of the picture and she's in No 10 a deal will be done. It suits her to get it out of the way quickly and move on to CoL stuff rather than have it dominate the agenda for months while people are unable to afford to fill up.
It's certainly true that her record on the trade deals is one of conceding everything to get any deal she can. The Australian and NZ deals she did were just extraordinarily one-sided, and not in our favour:
However, I'm sceptical that this means she'll do anything to get a new deal with the EU. Caving in to Australia and NZ and screwing British farmers gets you plaudits in the modern Conservative Party. The opposite seems to be true in the case of our former European friends; the totally irrational and pathological dislike of anything with the name 'European' in it which infests the party may mean that she calculates that further wrecking of the economy in the name of ideological purity is what she should do. Certainly the rhetoric so far, and her commitment to the utterly brain-dead NI Protocol Bill is not exactly encouraging.
I think you need to take a step back from your position of everything EU being amazing and everything not EU being awful first before you make a judgement on anything. The NI protocol isn't fit for purpose and the EU has been foot dragging around the agreed upon solutions to border control and customs issues. I think it is our fault for not forcing them to agree a timeframe for implementation of smart borders/trusted trader schemes but that's done now and the real issues still need to be resolved.
Starting from that position the Liz Truss bill makes a lot of sense, it does resolve the situation once and for all and with little to no risk because we know the EU won't start a trade war over it, they don't have the means and they also rely on UK LNG terminals and pipelines for gas importation, it would be a hugely risky strategy for them to start a trade war when Russia are about to turn off the taps.
My view is that a deal will be done, a timeframe of around a year will be given to get that 99% of trade/traders covered by the schemes and then everyone will just shut up about it.
As for your contention on the AU/NZ trade deals, I'm happy to get cheaper Aussie beef and NZ lamb. If the UK agriculture industry is unable to keep pace with them then they need to think about why they are so inefficient. I've been to Australia many times and their beef is better than ours. I look forwards to smoking a brisket with Aussie beef when it becomes easily available. It's time for UK agribusiness to put up or shut up.
Boris was the charmer that somehow kept this caravan of chaos on the road, through sheer force of personality; with him gone it will now totally fall apart. Worse than before
I doubt it will be a landslide. Liz Truss has got an operating window of around a year to win back a lot of votes Boris lost on competency and trust, that alone may be enough to limit the damage. Not burning down the building every few days with yet another scandal is probably worth 5 points in 2024.
I suspect that Ms Truss is a lot less doctrinaire and a lot more pragmatic than she appears. So, I don't expect a trade war with the EU. Indeed, I suspect that while she'll be firm, she's also going to piss people off a whole lot less. That - history suggests - is often a better way of achieving one's goals.
I also expect her to be firm in her support for Ukraine.
She'll probably cut taxes next year when she shouldn't, and the UK will probably not sort out its underlying issues on her watch.
But the economic cycle is a powerful thing, and - so long as Ukraine is resolved - then the cost of living crisis could well have long gone by the next election. Indeed, she might have the good fortune to have an election boosted by both tax cuts and falling commodity prices.
In which case, a 40 or 50 seat majority is far from impossible.
I'd love to believe that but I think the UK is through an INFLECTION POINT
The voters are done with the Tories the way they were done with them around 1995, nothing the Tories do now can stop defeat. Even tho the Labour leader is naff
They are a sad old dog with mange waiting for the coup de grace
The difference, of course, is that in 1995 Labour had a decent leader, hence the landslide that is beyond the uninspiring Starmer.
And with expectations of Truss or Sunak so low, as per this thread, there's plenty of room to surprise on the upside.
One brought up in Yorkshire, the other representing a Yorkshire seat.
Channel 5 will be able to do a documentary "The Yorkshire Prime Minister". To go with the Yorkshire Vet, Yorkshire Farm, Yorkshire Steam Railway, Our Great Yorkshire Life, and a dozen other shows about bloody Yorkshire!
As a Labour party member I am rooting for Liz Truss with everything I have. As a UK citizen with kids and a grandchild, the thought of her in charge scares the life out of me.
Why ? She wont do anything other than tinker in the 20 months left before she has to call a GE..
T May without the dance moves.
Trade war with the EU, for starters. Tax cuts funded by borrowing, for seconds. Someone always desperately seeking to prove they are the most right wing person in the room is fine if they are not Prime Minister. When they are it becomes a major concern.
Why do you expect the EU to initiate a trade war and what do you think it will mean in practice?
I expect them to do it after Truss forces the NIP legislation through Parliament and then breaks international law by implementing it. In practice, it will make an already sub-optimal trading relationship with our biggest export market even worse.
What specifically do you expect them to do?
Who knows?
If you don't know, why do you keep asserting that they will start a trade war?
Because they have made it clear they will retaliate when the NIP legislation is implemented.
They previously made it clear that the wouldn't ratify the trade deal until the protocol was implemented, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if the grace periods were unilaterally extended, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if legislation were introduced, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if it actually becomes law, etc, etc...
You are making it up from the second line onwards.
No I'm not. For example:
EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law
If the EU ultimately acquiesces to a solution along the lines that Truss has proposed in the NI Protocol Bill, will you still say that it/she is brain-dead?
Well, it is true that there is a potential landing zone, along the lines of what the EU has already suggested. If she withdraws the bill and actually engages in a positive sense with the practical issues, then that would be great, but it doesn't mean that the bill will have helped reach that position, it will have made it harder to reach it. We could already have de-dramatised this whole thing if we hadn't been issuing stupid threats and insulting our trading partners.
Oh good grief, we'd still be in Article 50 if we listened to your madness. This is the same bollocks as you were using to claim Hunt should win as Boris couldn't get a new deal, only to then see Boris rapidly get his far superior deal that was able to win an election and get through Parliament. 🤦♂️
There's nothing wrong with you being able to hold your hands up and admitting you made a mistake Richard, you don't need to keep making the same mistake. You don't get compromises from the EU by "de-dramatisation" or playing nicely, you do so by wielding your handbag, preparing to walk away without a deal, or simply threatening to act unilaterally. That is the only thing that has ever worked, or will ever work.
I think we all just have to hope that Liz Truss surprises us on the upside now.
You know she won't... She can't even string a coherent sentence together. In fact she'll be so bad I think there's likely to be one final leadership change between now and Jan 25 as I can't see Con daring to go into an election with her as leader.
Hate to say it GIN but I think they have to stick with her.
They’ve lost one PM this Parliament, are they really going to lose two? And present that to the country as some sort of stable and viable form of government?
Whoever becomes leader will lead the Tories into the next election, mark my words. And the cards MPs will fall as they will.
After 14 years in office through very turbulent times GE2024 was always going to be a tall order for the Tories. A defeat was nailed-on with Boris, looks a strong possibility with Truss, and a high probability with Rishi.
So there wasn't (and isn't) a choice of a magic leader one could draw out of the hat that could defy gravity and turn everything around.
That depends on a mixture of fortune, vision, competence, and communication.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Rishi Rishi Rishi, you could have put Truss out if you handed some votes over...
Penny is a bigger risk than Liz, IMO. Her tax and spend plan was simply unhinged.
She's much less experienced, of course, so, yes, in that sense she's a bigger risk. She also seems to be pretty thick.
OTOH we know that Liz Truss is an unexploded bomb in terms of NI and the EU. Not clear at this stage whether she can be defused.
I think once Boris is out of the picture and she's in No 10 a deal will be done. It suits her to get it out of the way quickly and move on to CoL stuff rather than have it dominate the agenda for months while people are unable to afford to fill up.
It's certainly true that her record on the trade deals is one of conceding everything to get any deal she can. The Australian and NZ deals she did were just extraordinarily one-sided, and not in our favour:
However, I'm sceptical that this means she'll do anything to get a new deal with the EU. Caving in to Australia and NZ and screwing British farmers gets you plaudits in the modern Conservative Party. The opposite seems to be true of trying to reach a sensible relationship in the case of our former European friends and our biggest trading partners; the totally irrational and pathological dislike of anything with the name 'European' in it which infests the party may mean that she calculates that further wrecking of the economy in the name of ideological purity is what she should do. Certainly the rhetoric so far, and her commitment to the utterly brain-dead NI Protocol Bill, is not exactly encouraging.
Careful now. You can't attack the ANZUK trade deal with remoaner things like facts. You have to *believe* and stop talking Britain down like the farmers!
As a Labour party member I am rooting for Liz Truss with everything I have. As a UK citizen with kids and a grandchild, the thought of her in charge scares the life out of me.
Why ? She wont do anything other than tinker in the 20 months left before she has to call a GE..
T May without the dance moves.
Trade war with the EU, for starters. Tax cuts funded by borrowing, for seconds. Someone always desperately seeking to prove they are the most right wing person in the room is fine if they are not Prime Minister. When they are it becomes a major concern.
Why do you expect the EU to initiate a trade war and what do you think it will mean in practice?
I expect them to do it after Truss forces the NIP legislation through Parliament and then breaks international law by implementing it. In practice, it will make an already sub-optimal trading relationship with our biggest export market even worse.
What specifically do you expect them to do?
Who knows?
If you don't know, why do you keep asserting that they will start a trade war?
Because they have made it clear they will retaliate when the NIP legislation is implemented.
They previously made it clear that the wouldn't ratify the trade deal until the protocol was implemented, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if the grace periods were unilaterally extended, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if legislation were introduced, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if it actually becomes law, etc, etc...
You are making it up from the second line onwards.
No I'm not. For example:
EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law
[snip] I think you need to take a step back from your position of everything EU being amazing and everything not EU being awful first before you make a judgement on anything. [snip]
Don't be so goddammed stupid. I have never, ever, in my entire life said anything even remotely like that. The fact that you seem to think I have shows that you haven't understood the realities. This is not about whether the EU is good or bad (it's mixed, if you really want my opinion), it's about how to engage with the massive Single Market on our doorstep which accounts for such a humongous portion of our trade.
Admittedly a smaller proportion than it did, but not in a positive way...
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
As a Labour party member I am rooting for Liz Truss with everything I have. As a UK citizen with kids and a grandchild, the thought of her in charge scares the life out of me.
Why ? She wont do anything other than tinker in the 20 months left before she has to call a GE..
T May without the dance moves.
Trade war with the EU, for starters. Tax cuts funded by borrowing, for seconds. Someone always desperately seeking to prove they are the most right wing person in the room is fine if they are not Prime Minister. When they are it becomes a major concern.
Why do you expect the EU to initiate a trade war and what do you think it will mean in practice?
I expect them to do it after Truss forces the NIP legislation through Parliament and then breaks international law by implementing it. In practice, it will make an already sub-optimal trading relationship with our biggest export market even worse.
What specifically do you expect them to do?
Who knows?
If you don't know, why do you keep asserting that they will start a trade war?
Because they have made it clear they will retaliate when the NIP legislation is implemented.
They previously made it clear that the wouldn't ratify the trade deal until the protocol was implemented, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if the grace periods were unilaterally extended, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if legislation were introduced, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if it actually becomes law, etc, etc...
You are making it up from the second line onwards.
No I'm not. For example:
EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law
I see no mention of sanctions or trade war in that article.
It mentions taking legal action. Talk of a "trade war" comes almost exclusively from hysterical UK commentators trying to portray the UK government as a criminal enterprise.
Would love for one of the spoiled ballots to have been from St Theresa. With her fruity description of the candidates scrawled across the paper.
Snake, lightweight, Bitch? Poor Theresa, I expect she reluctantly voted for Mordaunt and would vote against both of Sunak and Truss if she could. In the end I suspect she votes for Sunak with huge reservations
“Snake, Lightweight, Bitch” is the name of my new album.
Would love for one of the spoiled ballots to have been from St Theresa. With her fruity description of the candidates scrawled across the paper.
Snake, lightweight, Bitch? Poor Theresa, I expect she reluctantly voted for Mordaunt and would vote against both of Sunak and Truss if she could. In the end I suspect she votes for Sunak with huge reservations
They removed her because of the chaos in getting Brexit through parliament. And it *was* chaos. But she was a giant compared to the pygmies who have run in this contest.
The problem with your "we have to rule because we are entitled to do so because only we are capable" shit is you actually have to be capable.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
The purist free trader position circa 1900 is to unilaterally drop all tariffs. It’s a legitimate view and I can see the logic.
After 14 years in office through very turbulent times GE2024 was always going to be a tall order for the Tories. A defeat was nailed-on with Boris, looks a strong possibility with Truss, and a high probability with Rishi.
So there wasn't (and isn't) a choice of a magic leader one could draw out of the hat that could defy gravity and turn everything around.
That depends on a mixture of fortune, vision, competence, and communication.
The Tories can afford to lose 50 seats with the new boundaries. That's a lot of seats.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
MaxPB put it as well as I could have done above.
I can understand why British farmers may be worried about Aussie and Kiwi meat. Its better. If I could get Aussie beef or British beef for the exact same price, then I would buy the meat with the Southern Cross not the Union Jack. Others can choose differently though, its a free society.
There are many things we do better in the UK, and there are some things I'd back England on even if we're doing worse, like Test Cricket most of the time. But when it comes to beef or Shiraz, the Aussies know what they're doing - and it being cheaper in this country would be a real benefit not threat from Brexit. 🥩🍷
But his Chingford seat in the far north London suburbs is surely gone.
Depends what the boundary changes are like.
Using the EMA and current boundaries, Chingford is a Labour gain.
With the new proposed boundaries, unexpectedly (to me at least) the Labour majority increases ...
... and IDS still loses his seat.
And that's before the demographic drift as the London effect ripples out. On top of which, IDS is 68; surely he is planning to retire at the next election?
[snip] I think you need to take a step back from your position of everything EU being amazing and everything not EU being awful first before you make a judgement on anything. [snip]
Don't be so goddammed stupid. I have never, ever, in my entire life said anything even remotely like that. The fact that you seem to think I have shows that you haven't understood the realities. This is not about whether the EU is good or bad (it's mixed, if you really want my opinion), it's about how to engage with the massive Single Market on our doorstep which accounts for such a humongous portion of our trade.
Admittedly a smaller proportion than it did, but not in a positive way...
It was a smaller proportion of UK trade in 2016 than in 2010 despite your beloved being in charge of the government.
As a Labour party member I am rooting for Liz Truss with everything I have. As a UK citizen with kids and a grandchild, the thought of her in charge scares the life out of me.
Why ? She wont do anything other than tinker in the 20 months left before she has to call a GE..
T May without the dance moves.
Trade war with the EU, for starters. Tax cuts funded by borrowing, for seconds. Someone always desperately seeking to prove they are the most right wing person in the room is fine if they are not Prime Minister. When they are it becomes a major concern.
Why do you expect the EU to initiate a trade war and what do you think it will mean in practice?
I expect them to do it after Truss forces the NIP legislation through Parliament and then breaks international law by implementing it. In practice, it will make an already sub-optimal trading relationship with our biggest export market even worse.
What specifically do you expect them to do?
Who knows?
If you don't know, why do you keep asserting that they will start a trade war?
Because they have made it clear they will retaliate when the NIP legislation is implemented.
They previously made it clear that the wouldn't ratify the trade deal until the protocol was implemented, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if the grace periods were unilaterally extended, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if legislation were introduced, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if it actually becomes law, etc, etc...
You are making it up from the second line onwards.
No I'm not. For example:
EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law
I see no mention of sanctions or trade war in that article.
It mentions taking legal action. Talk of a "trade war" comes almost exclusively from hysterical UK commentators trying to portray the UK government as a criminal enterprise.
Legal action as envisaged by the Protocol. The UK government plans to tear up the Protocol. It is not a criminal enterprise, but it does not believe in the rule of law or in Parliamentary democracy.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
Hmm, looks at Aussie fillet in the fridge, and thinks about starting the weekend a day early… 🥩
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
They've cast off partygate and are about to elect a leader that's completely mad and can't even speak coherent sentences.
Rishi Rishi Rishi, you could have put Truss out if you handed some votes over...
Penny is a bigger risk than Liz, IMO. Her tax and spend plan was simply unhinged.
She's much less experienced, of course, so, yes, in that sense she's a bigger risk. She also seems to be pretty thick.
OTOH we know that Liz Truss is an unexploded bomb in terms of NI and the EU. Not clear at this stage whether she can be defused.
I think once Boris is out of the picture and she's in No 10 a deal will be done. It suits her to get it out of the way quickly and move on to CoL stuff rather than have it dominate the agenda for months while people are unable to afford to fill up.
It's certainly true that her record on the trade deals is one of conceding everything to get any deal she can. The Australian and NZ deals she did were just extraordinarily one-sided, and not in our favour:
However, I'm sceptical that this means she'll do anything to get a new deal with the EU. Caving in to Australia and NZ and screwing British farmers gets you plaudits in the modern Conservative Party. The opposite seems to be true in the case of our former European friends; the totally irrational and pathological dislike of anything with the name 'European' in it which infests the party may mean that she calculates that further wrecking of the economy in the name of ideological purity is what she should do. Certainly the rhetoric so far, and her commitment to the utterly brain-dead NI Protocol Bill is not exactly encouraging.
I think you need to take a step back from your position of everything EU being amazing and everything not EU being awful first before you make a judgement on anything. The NI protocol isn't fit for purpose and the EU has been foot dragging around the agreed upon solutions to border control and customs issues. I think it is our fault for not forcing them to agree a timeframe for implementation of smart borders/trusted trader schemes but that's done now and the real issues still need to be resolved.
Starting from that position the Liz Truss bill makes a lot of sense, it does resolve the situation once and for all and with little to no risk because we know the EU won't start a trade war over it, they don't have the means and they also rely on UK LNG terminals and pipelines for gas importation, it would be a hugely risky strategy for them to start a trade war when Russia are about to turn off the taps.
My view is that a deal will be done, a timeframe of around a year will be given to get that 99% of trade/traders covered by the schemes and then everyone will just shut up about it.
As for your contention on the AU/NZ trade deals, I'm happy to get cheaper Aussie beef and NZ lamb. If the UK agriculture industry is unable to keep pace with them then they need to think about why they are so inefficient. I've been to Australia many times and their beef is better than ours. I look forwards to smoking a brisket with Aussie beef when it becomes easily available. It's time for UK agribusiness to put up or shut up.
The point is not that UK Agriculture needs to shape up, whatever that means, it is that the Cons told UK Agriculture that it was on their side.
So I wonder if some dirt or mishap will emerge over the next few days that will cause a candidate to withdraw. Some Boris folk hate Sunak.
The DM will be getting the first Rishi ‘scandal’ ready to go for tomorrows front page. Theyve got 40 editions between now and 5 September to play with.
Would love for one of the spoiled ballots to have been from St Theresa. With her fruity description of the candidates scrawled across the paper.
Snake, lightweight, Bitch? Poor Theresa, I expect she reluctantly voted for Mordaunt and would vote against both of Sunak and Truss if she could. In the end I suspect she votes for Sunak with huge reservations
“Snake, Lightweight, Bitch” is the name of my new album.
I thought it was W3W for a place along Finchley Road.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
If the Welsh will not change their geography, they deserve everything they get.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
Personally I don’t think frozen imports compete with fresh locally grown stuff on quality.
And for Welsh hill farmers, for example, there’s literally fuck all else to do once they are forced out of business.
British farmers would have to do quite a bit more than lay off “a bunch of Bulgarian labourers” to compete with the scale of Australian farming and/or NZ’s impeccably lush plains. Silly to suggest otherwise.
OK, so bear with me. Here's how I see the Sunak-Truss duel playing out
For the first week, Truss will surge into a betting lead (at least) as members are polled and she consistently "wins"
But then the heat plume will return, probably more than once (see the GFS models already). This may seem irrelevant but it will worsen the Cost of Living crisis making the responsible Sunak look more appealing. The second plume will be so intense Liz Truss will catch fire live on TV in the Westminster Lobby, Sunak will try to save her but will get accidentally stepped on in the melee by Ed Davey, who will then be lynched by David Herdson of the Yorkshire Party causing temporary Prime Minister Bill Cash's Ghost to declare war on China by mistake who will attempt to wipe us out with hypersonic nukes but this will get noticed by The Aliens who will storm out of their immemorial deep ocean lairs and vaporise anyone under 70 years old
Then the members will vote, in early September. Hard to call, at that point
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
It wasn't long ago that the majority of posters were wondering if Labour could survive or ever win an election. Let us not sink to the level of futurologists and similar charlatans who merely extrapolate current transient trends into the future. We are better than that.
[snip] I think you need to take a step back from your position of everything EU being amazing and everything not EU being awful first before you make a judgement on anything. [snip]
Don't be so goddammed stupid. I have never, ever, in my entire life said anything even remotely like that. The fact that you seem to think I have shows that you haven't understood the realities. This is not about whether the EU is good or bad (it's mixed, if you really want my opinion), it's about how to engage with the massive Single Market on our doorstep which accounts for such a humongous portion of our trade.
Admittedly a smaller proportion than it did, but not in a positive way...
It's about being realistic on the terms of engagement. You want to take the easy way out and hope that by saying we won't diverge the EU will grant equivalence in specific areas. It's not going to work like that. The EU is making a political decision (as is their right) to punish the UK for leaving the EU and asking for treaty based dynamic alignment to achieve equivalence. That, understandably, has been rejected by the government (and it seems Labour), which leaves us with the reality of the situation - adjusting to life without equivalence or significant single market participation for at least 10 years while the politicians of this generation all retire and the next generation unfreezes relations.
In the quarter to April UK exports to the EU were at an all time record, it's imports from the EU that haven't recovered as UK companies have begun to cast their net to imports from Asia to replace EU imports. I'm not sure that's as big of a deal as you are suggesting. I'm not even sure it really registers as any kind of problem, it is a natural consequence of diluting trade relations with the EU. All we've done really is substitute imports from the EU with imports from Asia, it's hardly an earth shattering problem that will impoverish us all.
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
They've cast off partygate and are about to elect a leader that's completely mad and can't even speak coherent sentences.
Awesome!
I don’t think they’re fishing for your vote, or mine particularly. But they don’t need us.
If the EU ultimately acquiesces to a solution along the lines that Truss has proposed in the NI Protocol Bill, will you still say that it/she is brain-dead?
Well, it is true that there is a potential landing zone, along the lines of what the EU has already suggested. If she withdraws the bill and actually engages in a positive sense with the practical issues, then that would be great, but it doesn't mean that the bill will have helped reach that position, it will have made it harder to reach it. We could already have de-dramatised this whole thing if we hadn't been issuing stupid threats and insulting our trading partners.
The EU's proposals are the basis for a settlement if she engages with them seriously and in good faith.
In fact this will be a great early test of which way she'll go as PM*. Will she do cool calm and national interest? Or will it be continuity Johnson, ie dog whistle xenophobic grandstanding for the "base"?
* If she is PM, that is. I think it'll be close vs Sunak.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
I know a (very) little bit about Welsh lamb having had some memorable tussles with Co-op product developers and buyers. The problem with your "just scale up" comment is that is Welsh. Hard to scale up hill farms to mega scale when then are on fucking Welsh hillsides. It costs what it costs because they can't scale.
This country either makes agriculture work or we starve in the next big war as we almost did in the last one. We can't just let the market decide and flood supermarkets with cheap subsidised products as our own ability to produce disappears.
What technology are you proposing to cut the costs of Welsh lamb? Robot sheepdogs?
Would love for one of the spoiled ballots to have been from St Theresa. With her fruity description of the candidates scrawled across the paper.
Snake, lightweight, Bitch? Poor Theresa, I expect she reluctantly voted for Mordaunt and would vote against both of Sunak and Truss if she could. In the end I suspect she votes for Sunak with huge reservations
“Snake, Lightweight, Bitch” is the name of my new album.
I shall find out how it cashes out in what3words and build a house there.
[snip] I think you need to take a step back from your position of everything EU being amazing and everything not EU being awful first before you make a judgement on anything. [snip]
Don't be so goddammed stupid. I have never, ever, in my entire life said anything even remotely like that. The fact that you seem to think I have shows that you haven't understood the realities. This is not about whether the EU is good or bad (it's mixed, if you really want my opinion), it's about how to engage with the massive Single Market on our doorstep which accounts for such a humongous portion of our trade.
Admittedly a smaller proportion than it did, but not in a positive way...
It was a smaller proportion of UK trade in 2016 than in 2010 despite your beloved being in charge of the government.
Yes, of course. But that was for a very different reason - the relative rise of non-European economies, so of course you'd expect the share of the EU part of our trade to have eased off in that period - in a good way, by the increase elsewhere.
Would love for one of the spoiled ballots to have been from St Theresa. With her fruity description of the candidates scrawled across the paper.
Snake, lightweight, Bitch? Poor Theresa, I expect she reluctantly voted for Mordaunt and would vote against both of Sunak and Truss if she could. In the end I suspect she votes for Sunak with huge reservations
“Snake, Lightweight, Bitch” is the name of my new album.
I believe that “Snake, Lightweight, Bitch” is the What3Words address finder for Conservative Central Office.
As a Labour party member I am rooting for Liz Truss with everything I have. As a UK citizen with kids and a grandchild, the thought of her in charge scares the life out of me.
Why ? She wont do anything other than tinker in the 20 months left before she has to call a GE..
T May without the dance moves.
Trade war with the EU, for starters. Tax cuts funded by borrowing, for seconds. Someone always desperately seeking to prove they are the most right wing person in the room is fine if they are not Prime Minister. When they are it becomes a major concern.
Why do you expect the EU to initiate a trade war and what do you think it will mean in practice?
I expect them to do it after Truss forces the NIP legislation through Parliament and then breaks international law by implementing it. In practice, it will make an already sub-optimal trading relationship with our biggest export market even worse.
What specifically do you expect them to do?
Who knows?
If you don't know, why do you keep asserting that they will start a trade war?
Because they have made it clear they will retaliate when the NIP legislation is implemented.
They previously made it clear that the wouldn't ratify the trade deal until the protocol was implemented, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if the grace periods were unilaterally extended, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if legislation were introduced, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if it actually becomes law, etc, etc...
You are making it up from the second line onwards.
No I'm not. For example:
EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law
I see no mention of sanctions or trade war in that article.
It mentions taking legal action. Talk of a "trade war" comes almost exclusively from hysterical UK commentators trying to portray the UK government as a criminal enterprise.
Legal action as envisaged by the Protocol. The UK government plans to tear up the Protocol. It is not a criminal enterprise, but it does not believe in the rule of law or in Parliamentary democracy.
Orwellian double-speak.
"They are passing laws in parliament with which I don't agree. This shows that they don't believe in the rule of law or in parliamentary democracy."
OK, so bear with me. Here's how I see the Sunak-Truss duel playing out
For the first week, Truss will surge into a betting lead (at least) as members are polled and she consistently "wins"
But then the heat plume will return, probably more than once (see the GFS models already). This may seem irrelevant but it will worsen the Cost of Living crisis making the responsible Sunak look more appealing. The second plume will be so intense Liz Truss will catch fire live on TV in the Westminster Lobby, Sunak will try to save her but will get accidentally stepped on in the melee by Ed Davey, who will then be lynched by David Herdson of the Yorkshire Party causing temporary Prime Minister Bill Cash's Ghost to declare war on China by mistake who will attempt to wipe us out with hypersonic nukes but this will get noticed by The Aliens who will storm out of their immemorial deep ocean lairs and vaporise anyone under 70 years old
Then the members will vote, in early September. Hard to call, at that point
Last time out, 80% of the ballot papers were back at Tory HQ within a week of sending. Very few members even waited for the televised hustings.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 4m Blog: Why 🛒 supporting the human handgrenade? Cos 🛒 knows she's mad & thinks she'll blow & he can make a comeback. Why did I give her this nickname? Cos she blows up all she touches
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
They've cast off partygate and are about to elect a leader that's completely mad and can't even speak coherent sentences.
Awesome!
I don’t think they’re fishing for your vote, or mine particularly. But they don’t need us.
This is the problem with the "median voter" poll that was put out today - the "median voter" includes at least 25% who won't vote Tory regardless of anything. The Tories need to appeal to the median voter amongst those who might vote for them.
(I may just have time to edit this to give the right result at 4.01)
Excuse me - bragging rights! I didn't even have to cheat to be pretty fucking close, and spot on with Truss.
You - incredibly - scored 98 out of 100.
Not only WINS but laps the field. Also saves me having to work out all the others.
I got 91 btw. Top quartile but blown away by somebody who if he wasn't a good solid Labour man I'd suspect of being in the 22 committee room.
Leon plumb last.
Well done all.
Are you literally alleging my prediction of
Sunak: 340 Truss: 0 Mordaunt: 1.2
was towards the back of the pack?? Fie!
I'm tempted to have a cheeky pre-gin gin and blame it on you
Still a serious last place because what I sense happened is you sought to disguise your deficit on predictive powers with an obviously silly entry.
The "well I wasn't trying" gambit. We've all done it as kids.
No, it was more: God I am existentially bored of the Tory Party and their endless, tedious, post-Brexit, internecine psychodrama, and I can't even be arsed to pretend to be be interested any more.
Boris was the salt and aroma of the land, as the Armenians were to Anatolia in about 1905
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 4m Blog: Why 🛒 supporting the human handgrenade? Cos 🛒 knows she's mad & thinks she'll blow & he can make a comeback. Why did I give her this nickname? Cos she blows up all she touches
Christ he is not even any fucking good. Infantile bloody emojis, and what typically happens to a handgrenade when it detonates?
As a Labour party member I am rooting for Liz Truss with everything I have. As a UK citizen with kids and a grandchild, the thought of her in charge scares the life out of me.
Why ? She wont do anything other than tinker in the 20 months left before she has to call a GE..
T May without the dance moves.
Trade war with the EU, for starters. Tax cuts funded by borrowing, for seconds. Someone always desperately seeking to prove they are the most right wing person in the room is fine if they are not Prime Minister. When they are it becomes a major concern.
Why do you expect the EU to initiate a trade war and what do you think it will mean in practice?
I expect them to do it after Truss forces the NIP legislation through Parliament and then breaks international law by implementing it. In practice, it will make an already sub-optimal trading relationship with our biggest export market even worse.
What specifically do you expect them to do?
Who knows?
If you don't know, why do you keep asserting that they will start a trade war?
Because they have made it clear they will retaliate when the NIP legislation is implemented.
They previously made it clear that the wouldn't ratify the trade deal until the protocol was implemented, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if the grace periods were unilaterally extended, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if legislation were introduced, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if it actually becomes law, etc, etc...
You are making it up from the second line onwards.
No I'm not. For example:
EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law
I see no mention of sanctions or trade war in that article.
It mentions taking legal action. Talk of a "trade war" comes almost exclusively from hysterical UK commentators trying to portray the UK government as a criminal enterprise.
Legal action as envisaged by the Protocol. The UK government plans to tear up the Protocol. It is not a criminal enterprise, but it does not believe in the rule of law or in Parliamentary democracy.
Orwellian double-speak.
"They are passing laws in parliament with which I don't agree. This shows that they don't believe in the rule of law or in parliamentary democracy."
The British government is breaking the law. What part of that is too difficult for you to understand? The old @williamglenn would have done his nut. The new bloke who nicked his account is all in favour.
[snip] I think you need to take a step back from your position of everything EU being amazing and everything not EU being awful first before you make a judgement on anything. [snip]
Don't be so goddammed stupid. I have never, ever, in my entire life said anything even remotely like that. The fact that you seem to think I have shows that you haven't understood the realities. This is not about whether the EU is good or bad (it's mixed, if you really want my opinion), it's about how to engage with the massive Single Market on our doorstep which accounts for such a humongous portion of our trade.
Admittedly a smaller proportion than it did, but not in a positive way...
It was a smaller proportion of UK trade in 2016 than in 2010 despite your beloved being in charge of the government.
Yes, of course. But that was for a very different reason - the relative rise of non-European economies, so of course you'd expect the share of the EU part of our trade to have eased off in that period - in a good way, by the increase elsewhere.
That ain't what we're seeing now.
Yes it is, the EU is still shrinking as a share of global GDP. Add in some import substitution and we are where we are. It really isn't that difficult to explain. If the EU would like the UK to import more from it then it's up to them to compete with Asian exporters or improve the terms of trade for us.
Its interesting how in the UK we think a shift to the right = automatic electoral defeat.
IN America, the primaries are throwing up a much bigger shift to the right, and yet the polls show the Republicans doing well in the mid terms.
Ah, would this be the same Senate polls that have the Democrats winning:
Nevada Georgia Pennsylvania Arizona New Hampshire
and possibly even
Wisconsin and Ohio
The 538 "polls only" forecast has the Dems actually gaining Senate seats.
Now, I grant you that the Republicans are essentially certain to gain the House. But no-one knows who their House candidate is. And everyone knows who their Senate candidate is.
---
Edit to add: and this ignores the fact the Republicans might also lose Utah to an Independent
True but the US polls had Biden winning Ohio/Iowa/Florida/NC and with a good shout in Texas in the presidential plus the Biden to take Wisconsin by 17 poll.
I think Trumpists are hard to reach in the US for many pollsters.
That's not what you said.
You said "yet the polls show the Republicans doing well in the mid terms"
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
They've cast off partygate and are about to elect a leader that's completely mad and can't even speak coherent sentences.
Awesome!
I don’t think they’re fishing for your vote, or mine particularly. But they don’t need us.
This is the problem with the "median voter" poll that was put out today - the "median voter" includes at least 25% who won't vote Tory regardless of anything. The Tories need to appeal to the median voter amongst those who might vote for them.
It's a bell curve (probably), which means there's clustering in the middle ground, so the 50th percentile (actual median) and the 37.5th percentile (median of the 75% who might be persuaded) are actually not that far apart.
Also, remember that there is also 25%+ of voters who'll vote Tory no matter what, so really they just need to appeal to the median floating voter. Which, assuming a roughly equal number of always-Labour and always-Tory voters, is the same thing as the median voter.
"They are passing laws in parliament with which I don't agree. This shows that they don't believe in the rule of law or in parliamentary democracy."
I must have missed the detailed parliamentary debates when the original Northern Ireland Protocol (you know the one that was praised to the skies by exactly the same people who now say it's a total disaster), or on the Australian trade deal, or on the NZ trade deal, or on the Rwanda insanity.
I really don't get why Truss is so hated. Nor why Sunak is.
One is slick and thinks more of himself than is justified. The other is weird but canny. Are they notably worse than other party leaders? Why the hatred? Strong disagreement with policies I understand. But to listen to some it's as if we were facing a choice between Mussolini and Franco.
I think we all just have to hope that Liz Truss surprises us on the upside now.
You know she won't... She can't even string a coherent sentence together. In fact she'll be so bad I think there's likely to be one final leadership change between now and Jan 25 as I can't see Con daring to go into an election with her as leader.
Hate to say it GIN but I think they have to stick with her.
They’ve lost one PM this Parliament, are they really going to lose two? And present that to the country as some sort of stable and viable form of government?
Whoever becomes leader will lead the Tories into the next election, mark my words. And the cards will fall as they will.
In particular the ERG need to own the defeat. I cannot wait
The Conservative party is the natural party of government.
Discuss.
They are the party of government right now, were from 1979-1997 and 2010-2022 and continuing, and favourite (narrowly) to win most seats next time and favourite (narrowly) to form the next government next time.
So as of this moment they seem to be. But they have dispensed with my vote, and may struggle to get it back, and SFAICS a few million other centrists too.
So a lot rests on SKS to keep Labour sane and electable.
As a Labour party member I am rooting for Liz Truss with everything I have. As a UK citizen with kids and a grandchild, the thought of her in charge scares the life out of me.
Why ? She wont do anything other than tinker in the 20 months left before she has to call a GE..
T May without the dance moves.
Trade war with the EU, for starters. Tax cuts funded by borrowing, for seconds. Someone always desperately seeking to prove they are the most right wing person in the room is fine if they are not Prime Minister. When they are it becomes a major concern.
Why do you expect the EU to initiate a trade war and what do you think it will mean in practice?
I expect them to do it after Truss forces the NIP legislation through Parliament and then breaks international law by implementing it. In practice, it will make an already sub-optimal trading relationship with our biggest export market even worse.
What specifically do you expect them to do?
Who knows?
If you don't know, why do you keep asserting that they will start a trade war?
Because they have made it clear they will retaliate when the NIP legislation is implemented.
They previously made it clear that the wouldn't ratify the trade deal until the protocol was implemented, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if the grace periods were unilaterally extended, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if legislation were introduced, then they made it clear that they would retaliate if it actually becomes law, etc, etc...
You are making it up from the second line onwards.
No I'm not. For example:
EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law
I see no mention of sanctions or trade war in that article.
It mentions taking legal action. Talk of a "trade war" comes almost exclusively from hysterical UK commentators trying to portray the UK government as a criminal enterprise.
Legal action as envisaged by the Protocol. The UK government plans to tear up the Protocol. It is not a criminal enterprise, but it does not believe in the rule of law or in Parliamentary democracy.
Orwellian double-speak.
"They are passing laws in parliament with which I don't agree. This shows that they don't believe in the rule of law or in parliamentary democracy."
If you sign a treaty and then decide not to abide by it you are demonstrating you do not believe in the rule of law. If you regularly deny MPs the opportunity to thoroughly interrogate changes to the law - as this government does through the unprecedented use of executive orders and the imposition of strict time limits on the scrutiny of primary legislation - then you clearly do not believe in Parliamentary democracy.
Dom's judgment is not one to be taken seriously given what he has done and who he helped inflict on the country. A very long period of silence from him would be welcome.
Comments
Somehow one suspects that the deals the EU is negotiating with Australia and NZ, when they eventually materialise, will be lauded as being very responsible.
I think Trumpists are hard to reach in the US for many pollsters.
Starting from that position the Liz Truss bill makes a lot of sense, it does resolve the situation once and for all and with little to no risk because we know the EU won't start a trade war over it, they don't have the means and they also rely on UK LNG terminals and pipelines for gas importation, it would be a hugely risky strategy for them to start a trade war when Russia are about to turn off the taps.
My view is that a deal will be done, a timeframe of around a year will be given to get that 99% of trade/traders covered by the schemes and then everyone will just shut up about it.
As for your contention on the AU/NZ trade deals, I'm happy to get cheaper Aussie beef and NZ lamb. If the UK agriculture industry is unable to keep pace with them then they need to think about why they are so inefficient. I've been to Australia many times and their beef is better than ours. I look forwards to smoking a brisket with Aussie beef when it becomes easily available. It's time for UK agribusiness to put up or shut up.
Sunak 2.48
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
And with expectations of Truss or Sunak so low, as per this thread, there's plenty of room to surprise on the upside.
EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56262527
There's nothing wrong with you being able to hold your hands up and admitting you made a mistake Richard, you don't need to keep making the same mistake. You don't get compromises from the EU by "de-dramatisation" or playing nicely, you do so by wielding your handbag, preparing to walk away without a deal, or simply threatening to act unilaterally. That is the only thing that has ever worked, or will ever work.
Eg Turn your +£5000 vs -£20 profile into +£3500 vs +£1000 (at current prices)
Think I would.
So there wasn't (and isn't) a choice of a magic leader one could draw out of the hat that could defy gravity and turn everything around.
That depends on a mixture of fortune, vision, competence, and communication.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
@Dominic2306
Totally on-brand for ERG to back a truly useless Remainer who did nothing in govt except gabble with hacks cos she’s reassuringly mad behind the eyes.
🤡
🤡
🤡🤡🤡
4:07 PM · Jul 20, 2022·TweetDeck"
Admittedly a smaller proportion than it did, but not in a positive way...
PM Starmer (who is pretty sh*te) nailed on.
With the new proposed boundaries, unexpectedly (to me at least) the Labour majority increases ...
... and IDS still loses his seat.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
The "well I wasn't trying" gambit. We've all done it as kids.
The problem with your "we have to rule because we are entitled to do so because only we are capable" shit is you actually have to be capable.
None of this lot are capable.
Oh, silly me, of course you aren't.
I can understand why British farmers may be worried about Aussie and Kiwi meat. Its better. If I could get Aussie beef or British beef for the exact same price, then I would buy the meat with the Southern Cross not the Union Jack. Others can choose differently though, its a free society.
There are many things we do better in the UK, and there are some things I'd back England on even if we're doing worse, like Test Cricket most of the time. But when it comes to beef or Shiraz, the Aussies know what they're doing - and it being cheaper in this country would be a real benefit not threat from Brexit. 🥩🍷
(I am a resolute Sunak supporter).
Awesome!
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1549429960649080832
and, for more detail:
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1547517247706611712
Of course he's very much an EU insider. Which is why he's well informed on this.
And for Welsh hill farmers, for example, there’s literally fuck all else to do once they are forced out of business.
British farmers would have to do quite a bit more than lay off “a bunch of Bulgarian labourers” to compete with the scale of Australian farming and/or NZ’s impeccably lush plains. Silly to suggest otherwise.
For the first week, Truss will surge into a betting lead (at least) as members are polled and she consistently "wins"
But then the heat plume will return, probably more than once (see the GFS models already). This may seem irrelevant but it will worsen the Cost of Living crisis making the responsible Sunak look more appealing. The second plume will be so intense Liz Truss will catch fire live on TV in the Westminster Lobby, Sunak will try to save her but will get accidentally stepped on in the melee by Ed Davey, who will then be lynched by David Herdson of the Yorkshire Party causing temporary Prime Minister Bill Cash's Ghost to declare war on China by mistake who will attempt to wipe us out with hypersonic nukes but this will get noticed by The Aliens who will storm out of their immemorial deep ocean lairs and vaporise anyone under 70 years old
Then the members will vote, in early September. Hard to call, at that point
In the quarter to April UK exports to the EU were at an all time record, it's imports from the EU that haven't recovered as UK companies have begun to cast their net to imports from Asia to replace EU imports. I'm not sure that's as big of a deal as you are suggesting. I'm not even sure it really registers as any kind of problem, it is a natural consequence of diluting trade relations with the EU. All we've done really is substitute imports from the EU with imports from Asia, it's hardly an earth shattering problem that will impoverish us all.
In fact this will be a great early test of which way she'll go as PM*. Will she do cool calm and national interest? Or will it be continuity Johnson, ie dog whistle xenophobic grandstanding for the "base"?
* If she is PM, that is. I think it'll be close vs Sunak.
This country either makes agriculture work or we starve in the next big war as we almost did in the last one. We can't just let the market decide and flood supermarkets with cheap subsidised products as our own ability to produce disappears.
What technology are you proposing to cut the costs of Welsh lamb? Robot sheepdogs?
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1549782798608785408?s=20&t=NlJvx5nH-we0pSMZ_9mD7A
That ain't what we're seeing now.
"They are passing laws in parliament with which I don't agree. This shows that they don't believe in the rule of law or in parliamentary democracy."
Overwhelming favoured Rishi Sunak over Liz Truss.
Basically said Truss is useful as tits on a fish.
@Dominic2306
·
4m
Blog:
Why 🛒 supporting the human handgrenade?
Cos 🛒 knows she's mad & thinks she'll blow & he can make a comeback.
Why did I give her this nickname?
Cos she blows up all she touches
Boris was the salt and aroma of the land, as the Armenians were to Anatolia in about 1905
https://twitter.com/PosenIzzy/status/1549736122682580992
(My own view: the question was poorly phrased. The interviewee gave a perfectly sensible answer.)
You said "yet the polls show the Republicans doing well in the mid terms"
Also, remember that there is also 25%+ of voters who'll vote Tory no matter what, so really they just need to appeal to the median floating voter. Which, assuming a roughly equal number of always-Labour and always-Tory voters, is the same thing as the median voter.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1549783466451128323
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1549782798608785408
I’m slightly iffy on Javid, but I’ll give him credit for his resignation speech.
Whereas Sunak is just a snake.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/09/20/one-current-leader-and-one-future-one/
Probably. But never mind.
I really don't get why Truss is so hated. Nor why Sunak is.
One is slick and thinks more of himself than is justified. The other is weird but canny. Are they notably worse than other party leaders? Why the hatred? Strong disagreement with policies I understand. But to listen to some it's as if we were facing a choice between Mussolini and Franco.
In particular the ERG need to own the defeat. I cannot wait
So as of this moment they seem to be. But they have dispensed with my vote, and may struggle to get it back, and SFAICS a few million other centrists too.
So a lot rests on SKS to keep Labour sane and electable.
If he says Liz is a nutter, I’m inclined to believe him. Plus, it takes one to know one.
Part of the Circle of Karma is going to be Dom telling the truth and nobody believing him...
No wonder the left hate them both.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jul/20/quidditch-changes-name-to-quadball-after-jk-rowlings-trans-statements