My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
Personally I don’t think frozen imports compete with fresh locally grown stuff on quality.
And for Welsh hill farmers, for example, there’s literally fuck all else to do once they are forced out of business.
British farmers would have to do quite a bit more than lay off “a bunch of Bulgarian labourers” to compete with the scale of Australian farming and/or NZ’s impeccably lush plains. Silly to suggest otherwise.
I think that's a fair point on quality, I've only ever had Aussie/NZ stuff in Australia, it may not travel well.
As for agribusiness, you're far, far too forgiving. They have literally spent the last 20 years throwing cheap labourers at the problem and now they are all highly inefficient compared to countries which have very large agriculture sectors but also very high marginal labour costs. UK agriculture is one of those sectors we talk about often when it comes to productivity or output per worker being so much lower here than elsewhere in Europe.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
The Ukraine war ought to be a wake up call to those who think we should import even more of our foodstuff from overseas. We should be looking at how to increase food security, not reduce it. UK agriculture has been heavily investing in technology for many years. You wouldn't know this because you prefer to talk out of your arse on a subject that you have no knowledge of. You are @BartholomewRoberts and I claim my £5
"They are passing laws in parliament with which I don't agree. This shows that they don't believe in the rule of law or in parliamentary democracy."
I must have missed the detailed parliamentary debates when the original Northern Ireland Protocol (you know the one that was praised to the skies by exactly the same people who now say it's a total disaster), or on the Australian trade deal, or on the NZ trade deal, or on the Rwanda insanity.
Yes, it’s sad/ironic that Brexit has led to deterioration in parliamentary democracy.
If Brexit is to have *any* meaning, it can only be as a project to further democracy.
I’ve long assumed Brexit is permanent, but I’m no longer as sure as I was, due to the way it’s been led. I don’t see Liz changing that.
"They are passing laws in parliament with which I don't agree. This shows that they don't believe in the rule of law or in parliamentary democracy."
I must have missed the detailed parliamentary debates when the original Northern Ireland Protocol (you know the one that was praised to the skies by exactly the same people who now say it's a total disaster), or on the Australian trade deal, or on the NZ trade deal, or on the Rwanda insanity.
Yes, it’s sad/ironic that Brexit has led to deterioration in parliamentary democracy.
If Brexit is to have *any* meaning, it can only be as a project to further democracy.
I’ve long assumed Brexit is permanent, but I’m no longer as sure as I was, due to the way it’s been led. I don’t see Liz changing that.
Putting all our eggs in the fundamentally broken Westminster/Whitehall system was always a long shot.
Don't know if Sunak or Truss have school-aged kids, but if they do I'll bet they're pretty pissed off. Sorry kids - summer holiday is cancelled. It's a staycation for you.
I really don't get why Truss is so hated. Nor why Sunak is.
One is slick and thinks more of himself than is justified. The other is weird but canny. Are they notably worse than other party leaders? Why the hatred? Strong disagreement with policies I understand. But to listen to some it's as if we were facing a choice between Mussolini and Franco.
Rish is a multi-millionaire tax dodger. Liz is a woman that think's dressing up like Margaret Thatcher in 1980 is a good idea.
Not Musolini and Franco... but not great!
Out of the two I would vote for Rishi if I had a vote because at least he's rational which is always a good starting point.
Don't know if Sunak or Truss have school-aged kids, but if they do I'll bet they're pretty pissed off. Sorry kids - summer holiday is cancelled. It's a staycation for you.
I don't imagine Rishi will be taking the kids on an August fortnight to Butlins
Don't know if Sunak or Truss have school-aged kids, but if they do I'll bet they're pretty pissed off. Sorry kids - summer holiday is cancelled. It's a staycation for you.
Sunak does - but I'm sure they will be happy doing London things or playing in their indoor pool in Richmond
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
Personally I don’t think frozen imports compete with fresh locally grown stuff on quality.
And for Welsh hill farmers, for example, there’s literally fuck all else to do once they are forced out of business.
British farmers would have to do quite a bit more than lay off “a bunch of Bulgarian labourers” to compete with the scale of Australian farming and/or NZ’s impeccably lush plains. Silly to suggest otherwise.
I think that's a fair point on quality, I've only ever had Aussie/NZ stuff in Australia, it may not travel well.
As for agribusiness, you're far, far too forgiving. They have literally spent the last 20 years throwing cheap labourers at the problem and now they are all highly inefficient compared to countries which have very large agriculture sectors but also very high marginal labour costs. UK agriculture is one of those sectors we talk about often when it comes to productivity or output per worker being so much lower here than elsewhere in Europe.
But you suggested that the reason why Welsh Lamb was uncompetitive could be fixed with "technology". What technology? The issue is that we have small farms on hillsides. Where sheep wild graze. Technology can't change the local topography. Or the rate that sheep eat or reproduce.
The issue is that the market has been tipped by cheap imports. Scale drives down cost per kg and the ANZ farms are enormous. So we can subsidise our farming sector because it is of strategic national importance not to be reliant on imports. Or we can let it die. How do you make the now abandoned hillsides in Wales or Cumbria or the Yorkshire dales more productive?
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
It wasn't long ago that the majority of posters were wondering if Labour could survive or ever win an election. Let us not sink to the level of futurologists and similar charlatans who merely extrapolate current transient trends into the future. We are better than that.
Extrapolating, Poland will be a richer country than the UK in just twelve years time.
(I may just have time to edit this to give the right result at 4.01)
Excuse me - bragging rights! I didn't even have to cheat to be pretty fucking close, and spot on with Truss.
You - incredibly - scored 98 out of 100.
Not only WINS but laps the field. Also saves me having to work out all the others.
I got 91 btw. Top quartile but blown away by somebody who if he wasn't a good solid Labour man I'd suspect of being in the 22 committee room.
Leon plumb last.
Well done all.
Are you literally alleging my prediction of
Sunak: 340 Truss: 0 Mordaunt: 1.2
was towards the back of the pack?? Fie!
I'm tempted to have a cheeky pre-gin gin and blame it on you
Still a serious last place because what I sense happened is you sought to disguise your deficit on predictive powers with an obviously silly entry.
The "well I wasn't trying" gambit. We've all done it as kids.
No, it was more: God I am existentially bored of the Tory Party and their endless, tedious, post-Brexit, internecine psychodrama, and I can't even be arsed to pretend to be be interested any more.
Boris was the salt and aroma of the land, as the Armenians were to Anatolia in about 1905
Certainly they have a problem defining what on earth they are without him. But before that they have to fumigate the place. Quite a task because they not only let him in the house they let him poop all over it for 3 years. And when that happens ... hell of a smell. It seeps in. Goes deep into walls and floorboards. So, massive clean up needed, meaning they'll probably be out of office at the next GE and remain so for quite some time. Ah well.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
Personally I don’t think frozen imports compete with fresh locally grown stuff on quality.
And for Welsh hill farmers, for example, there’s literally fuck all else to do once they are forced out of business.
British farmers would have to do quite a bit more than lay off “a bunch of Bulgarian labourers” to compete with the scale of Australian farming and/or NZ’s impeccably lush plains. Silly to suggest otherwise.
I think that's a fair point on quality, I've only ever had Aussie/NZ stuff in Australia, it may not travel well.
As for agribusiness, you're far, far too forgiving. They have literally spent the last 20 years throwing cheap labourers at the problem and now they are all highly inefficient compared to countries which have very large agriculture sectors but also very high marginal labour costs. UK agriculture is one of those sectors we talk about often when it comes to productivity or output per worker being so much lower here than elsewhere in Europe.
But you suggested that the reason why Welsh Lamb was uncompetitive could be fixed with "technology". What technology? The issue is that we have small farms on hillsides. Where sheep wild graze. Technology can't change the local topography. Or the rate that sheep eat or reproduce.
The issue is that the market has been tipped by cheap imports. Scale drives down cost per kg and the ANZ farms are enormous. So we can subsidise our farming sector because it is of strategic national importance not to be reliant on imports. Or we can let it die. How do you make the now abandoned hillsides in Wales or Cumbria or the Yorkshire dales more productive?
I would like to see his evidence that UK agribusiness is uncompetitive compared with EU peers. Or is it just a soil/scale issue?
I’m interested in food security, food quality, and regional economics, so the Ricardian promise of wins all round doesn’t really do it for me.
Its interesting how in the UK we think a shift to the right = automatic electoral defeat.
IN America, the primaries are throwing up a much bigger shift to the right, and yet the polls show the Republicans doing well in the mid terms.
Ah, would this be the same Senate polls that have the Democrats winning:
Nevada Georgia Pennsylvania Arizona New Hampshire
and possibly even
Wisconsin and Ohio
The 538 "polls only" forecast has the Dems actually gaining Senate seats.
Now, I grant you that the Republicans are essentially certain to gain the House. But no-one knows who their House candidate is. And everyone knows who their Senate candidate is.
---
Edit to add: and this ignores the fact the Republicans might also lose Utah to an Independent
True but the US polls had Biden winning Ohio/Iowa/Florida/NC and with a good shout in Texas in the presidential plus the Biden to take Wisconsin by 17 poll.
I think Trumpists are hard to reach in the US for many pollsters.
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
It wasn't long ago that the majority of posters were wondering if Labour could survive or ever win an election. Let us not sink to the level of futurologists and similar charlatans who merely extrapolate current transient trends into the future. We are better than that.
Extrapolating, Poland will be a richer country than the UK in just twelve years time.
Let that sink in…
I was pooh-poohed on here for suggesting the Baltics are breathing down our necks.
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
It wasn't long ago that the majority of posters were wondering if Labour could survive or ever win an election. Let us not sink to the level of futurologists and similar charlatans who merely extrapolate current transient trends into the future. We are better than that.
Extrapolating, Poland will be a richer country than the UK in just twelve years time.
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
It wasn't long ago that the majority of posters were wondering if Labour could survive or ever win an election. Let us not sink to the level of futurologists and similar charlatans who merely extrapolate current transient trends into the future. We are better than that.
Extrapolating, Poland will be a richer country than the UK in just twelve years time.
Let that sink in…
Not if Putin invades them...
Mind you, I was forgetting the Truss effect so that could even things.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
Personally I don’t think frozen imports compete with fresh locally grown stuff on quality.
And for Welsh hill farmers, for example, there’s literally fuck all else to do once they are forced out of business.
British farmers would have to do quite a bit more than lay off “a bunch of Bulgarian labourers” to compete with the scale of Australian farming and/or NZ’s impeccably lush plains. Silly to suggest otherwise.
Not really with you on the plains making that much difference. Wales has plenty of green stuff with very little going on.
Honestly the amount of premature celebrations on here about the death of a party in power, with a majority of 80 and a chance to visibly regenerate it’s entire front bench is astounding.
As was the case with Boris still in charge, the chances of this Government winning the next election are mostly identical to the chances of Russia backing down by Christmas, but they just improved slightly because the PartyGate barnacles have gone.
It wasn't long ago that the majority of posters were wondering if Labour could survive or ever win an election. Let us not sink to the level of futurologists and similar charlatans who merely extrapolate current transient trends into the future. We are better than that.
Extrapolating, Poland will be a richer country than the UK in just twelve years time.
Let that sink in…
I was pooh-poohed on here for suggesting the Baltics are breathing down our necks.
Good for them.
Our path to recovery doesn't include being concerned that other countries' economies are prospering. Makes them a better market for British goods, services, and inbound tourism.
My read on the Aus/NZ trade deals is less that Liz “rolled over” to get a deal, but rather that she actually believes that cheaper meat for consumers is worth damaging UK agricultural interests.
I don’t agree, but see MaxPB and surely BartyBobbins for details.
Certain UK agricultural interests, beef and lamb mostly. NZ lamb is incredible, happy to have it replace Welsh lamb if they can't keep up in price and quality, same for Aussie beef. In both cases the product is better and potentially cheaper. It's a wake up call to our agribusinesses to begin a big round of consolidation to scale up and to start investing in better technology to cut costs rather than just throw a bunch of Bulgarian labourers at it.
Personally I don’t think frozen imports compete with fresh locally grown stuff on quality.
And for Welsh hill farmers, for example, there’s literally fuck all else to do once they are forced out of business.
British farmers would have to do quite a bit more than lay off “a bunch of Bulgarian labourers” to compete with the scale of Australian farming and/or NZ’s impeccably lush plains. Silly to suggest otherwise.
Not really with you on the plains making that much difference. Wales has plenty of green stuff with very little going on.
I don’t quite get your point, but the most productive bits of NZ are the plains.
Bay of Plenty pre-eminently, also Canterbury and Taranaki.
Dairy is king now, not sheep-farming. Sheep farming had (has) a slightly different geographic pattern.
Comments
As for agribusiness, you're far, far too forgiving. They have literally spent the last 20 years throwing cheap labourers at the problem and now they are all highly inefficient compared to countries which have very large agriculture sectors but also very high marginal labour costs. UK agriculture is one of those sectors we talk about often when it comes to productivity or output per worker being so much lower here than elsewhere in Europe.
If Brexit is to have *any* meaning, it can only be as a project to further democracy.
I’ve long assumed Brexit is permanent, but I’m no longer as sure as I was, due to the way it’s been led. I don’t see Liz changing that.
NEW THREAD
Sorry kids - summer holiday is cancelled. It's a staycation for you.
Not Musolini and Franco... but not great!
Out of the two I would vote for Rishi if I had a vote because at least he's rational which is always a good starting point.
The issue is that the market has been tipped by cheap imports. Scale drives down cost per kg and the ANZ farms are enormous. So we can subsidise our farming sector because it is of strategic national importance not to be reliant on imports. Or we can let it die. How do you make the now abandoned hillsides in Wales or Cumbria or the Yorkshire dales more productive?
Let that sink in…
I’m interested in food security, food quality, and regional economics, so the Ricardian
promise of wins all round doesn’t really do it for me.
Well it’s a hobby I guess.
Our path to recovery doesn't include being concerned that other countries' economies are prospering. Makes them a better market for British goods, services, and inbound tourism.
Bay of Plenty pre-eminently, also Canterbury and Taranaki.
Dairy is king now, not sheep-farming.
Sheep farming had (has) a slightly different geographic pattern.